TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[jim9358]

Been to shareholder meets before, one does meet all "types", those determined to be grumpy (sometimes valid), but, what's not to like...

Prob. right winner69, be back up and leave those of us remaining wondering what on earth it was all about ;-)

__________________________________________________ ________________________________________
as at 13:58:55, Thursday 22 September, 2016 (NZT)
FORECAST: TIL: Trilogy International Ltd Provides 1H17 and FY17 Guidance
TIL
22/09/2016 13:58
FORECAST
PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1358 HRS Trilogy International Limited

FORECAST: TIL: Trilogy International Ltd Provides 1H17 and FY17 Guidance

Trilogy International Ltd Provides 1H17 and FY17 Guidance

New Zealand, 22 September 2016- Trilogy International Limited (NZX:TIL) (the
Company or TIL) announced today at the AGM, revenue and EBITDA guidance for
the half year and full year of FY17.

For the six months ending 30 September 2016, TIL expects revenue of $47.5
million, an increase of 62% compared to the first half 2016, and EBITDA to be
$7.0 million, reflecting a 32% increase compared to the first half 2016.

For the twelve months ending 31 March 2017, the Company expects revenue to be
approximately $100 million to $110 million, reflecting an increase of 20% -
32% compared to FY16. Based on TIL's previously communicated investment
intentions, TIL expects EBITDA to be approximately $19 million to $21
million, reflecting an increase of 17% - 29% compared to FY16.

"After a remarkable FY16, being able to back it up and deliver 62% revenue
growth for 1H17 represents a strong performance from the TIL brands and
CS&Co," said Angela Buglass, TIL Chief Executive Officer. "Given the
significant opportunity for TIL to drive long term sales and market growth,
this year is about investing in the business to make it fit for the future
and to support strategic priorities. I am pleased with where we will land
first half and I know we are in a powerful position to take confident strides
forward and deliver continued success in the future".

Geoff Ross, TIL Chairman, said, "TIL's expected performance in FY17
demonstrates our ability to build scale in our brands, and the value of the
CS&Co acquisition in its first full year as a wholly owned subsidiary of TIL.
We are well positioned for the future and look forward to continuing to
execute on our strategic priorities".

1H17 Guidance ($M) FY17 Guidance ($M)
Revenue 47.5 ~100 - 110
EBITDA 7.0 ~19 - 21

[sb9]

Could well be a wipe out if any update is not good

Bit of a worry

Kinda on the cards wasn't it, if guidance isn't great today's price reaction was always expected.

Next few weeks is key until the ASX listing happens, shall wait and see.

[trader_jackson]

Well finished at $4.05, a stock that is use to 'only going up' with 'ever increasing ambitions' down 12.9% on the back of a few words in just an hour or so of trading... imagine if those words really did 'come true' and the actual result showed sales really were slowing (and slowing down fast...) in fact imagine if they missed their already "extremly average" lower end forecast?

Scary times, time will tell if the price has stabilised ... good luck to the holders (and well done to those who got in a 3.8x... I'd sell now while you are still in the green)

Not advice, just thoughts

[winner69]

Geoff said they are 'well positioned'

Thats worth a few cents on the share price

[winner69]

Angela said

“After a remarkable FY16, being able to back it up and deliver 62% revenue growth for 1H17 represents a strong performancefrom the TIL brands and CS&Co,” said Angela Buglass, TIL Chief Executive Officer. “Given the significant opportunity for TIL to drive long term sales and market growth, this year is about investing in the business to make it fit for the future and to support strategic priorities. I am pleased with where we will land first half and I know we are in a powerful position to take confident stridesforward and deliver continued success in the future”.

Plenty of strong positive words in that - wonder what business shool she went to?

[muss1]

Well finished at $4.05, a stock that is use to 'only going up' with 'ever increasing ambitions' down 12.9% on the back of a few words in just an hour or so of trading... imagine if those words really did 'come true' and the actual result showed sales really were slowing (and slowing down fast...) in fact imagine if they missed their already "extremly average" lower end forecast?

Scary times, time will tell if the price has stabilised ... good luck to the holders (and well done to those who got in a 3.8x... I'd sell now while you are still in the green)

Not advice, just thoughts

Is the scaremongering really necessary? Forecast top line growth (history of conservatism) without CS and Co is a bit below the "better than market growth rates" previously quoted. That's to say it's still up around 20% for natural products and 15% for Ecoya (I've assumed the split).

Paying up to to fund growth is another debate, but that's the other part of the story.

My full year rev estimates were 113m and EBITDA 24m (explained by margins), so don't get me wrong I'm disappointed. I think they will beat guidance though. The story is intact, and the difference is mostly down to EBITDA margin. A piece of Asia UK or USA over the next few years and it's all worth it. If not, that's the risk you take on.

[jim9358]

Is the scaremongering really necessary? Forecast top line growth (history of conservatism) without CS and Co is a bit below the "better than market growth rates" previously quoted. That's to say it's still up around 20% for natural products and 15% for Ecoya (I've assumed the split).

Paying up to to fund growth is another debate, but that's the other part of the story.

My full year rev estimates were 113m and EBITDA 24m (explained by margins), so don't get me wrong I'm disappointed. I think they will beat guidance though. The story is intact, and the difference is mostly down to EBITDA margin. A piece of Asia UK or USA over the next few years and it's all worth it. If not, that's the risk you take on.

Look forward to your further analysis: You're right, the ...... and ..... is unnecessary and unwarranted. How can people believe the co. is tanking with such sales growth as this ... "the Company expects revenue to be approximately $100 million to $110 million, reflecting an increase of 20% - 32% compared to FY16." ? Sure, infinite trajectory growth does not happen anywhere in the Universe but these people state they have not finished their plan. There is no sign they've hit their ceiling for penetration of world markets. I feel the .... and .... here without analytical basis to comment should just .... leave the rest of us to get on with supporting the company! ((hope this edit acceptably soft enough?))

[LAC]

The AGM was good, if there were any worried shareholders there then the questions would have reflected that but everyone seemed pleased (myself included). Ross did make clear that the new shares introduced cut debt dramatically and I think they will look at further acquisitions. Angela sounded like they are still far from finished with their growth plans.
I agree, the scaremongering is a heap of nonsense. There's still good growth for 2017 and I am sure most people on here never expected the previous growth to be sustainable. Nothing has changed for me with TIL, ASX listing will be good (end of OCT as noted by Ross).
Will stock up at these prices

[winner69]

The full year announcement presentation had a slide that said CS proforma FY sales were $42.2m and ebitda of $6.7m

Plug those into the group performance for FY16 then F17 real growth rates are -

Revenues $110m is +14% (H1 +11% and H2 +16%)
EBITDA $21m is +15% (H1 -3% H2 +27%)

Not really that flash are they, especially the H1 numbers. A bit different from the stated 62% and 32% for H1 aren't they

I think we need to assume the H1 guidance is close to reality - half year almost over and pretty embarrassing for them if numbers are much different

Really need to wait for more detailed H1 numbers in November to really assess the situation

And Jim I am a doubter at the moment and I not going to bugger off

[winner69]

The AGM was good, if there were any worried shareholders there then the questions would have reflected that but everyone seemed pleased (myself included). Ross did make clear that the new shares introduced cut debt dramatically and I think they will look at further acquisitions. Angela sounded like they are still far from finished with their growth plans.
I agree, the scaremongering is a heap of nonsense. There's still good growth for 2017 and I am sure most people on here never expected the previous growth to be sustainable. Nothing has changed for me with TIL, ASX listing will be good (end of OCT as noted by Ross).
Will stock up at these prices

Were people aware during the meeting that the share price was tanking?

Just interested