If National wins ...

**elZorro** · 05-12-2016, 07:53 AM

Originally Posted by fungus pudding

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/n...ectid=11760305

I like the look of Stuart Nash too. He probably needs to prove his worth in general duties, though, for a few years. I like the way he knows how to get himself elected. He had personal contacts that provided lots of funds, probably three times more than, on average, other Labour electorates worked with. There is generally a formula for the cost of a vote, the price per vote goes up as you try to get a higher percentage, so the further behind you start, the higher the cost to win an electorate.

If that sounds shallow, it's probably more true than you'd think. Fundraising for the Labour party and their candidates will be an important step in 2017. Stuart also did a lot of doorknocking in 2014, and if he's already doing street corner meetings, he's onto it.

**dobby41** · 05-12-2016, 08:09 AM

Originally Posted by elZorro

Rod Oram had another thought-provoking article about John Key's tendency to play with the figures to support National's arguments.

And a good piece too.
Pity JK is never really called out on this - he is very Trumpish but a lot more refined.

**elZorro** · 05-12-2016, 08:51 AM

Originally Posted by dobby41

And a good piece too.
Pity JK is never really called out on this - he is very Trumpish but a lot more refined.

You have to ask, why were the main papers so slow on reporting the by-election result, it's up to commentators, not reporters, to give us a bit of balanced research most often. Don't forget, that sitting MPs have the parliamentary funds for regular ads in newspapers. So often, that regular income trumps an unbiased view.

**fungus pudding** · 05-12-2016, 09:04 AM

Originally Posted by elZorro

I like the look of Stuart Nash too. He probably needs to prove his worth in general duties, though, for a few years. I like the way he knows how to get himself elected. He had personal contacts that provided lots of funds, probably three times more than, on average, other Labour electorates worked with. There is generally a formula for the cost of a vote, the price per vote goes up as you try to get a higher percentage, so the further behind you start, the higher the cost to win an electorate.

If that sounds shallow, it's probably more true than you'd think. Fundraising for the Labour party and their candidates will be an important step in 2017. Stuart also did a lot of doorknocking in 2014, and if he's already doing street corner meetings, he's onto it.

He is the sensible replacement for Little, and if it's not very soon then Labour are simply handing the next election to National. He seems to have the right credentials for the role, and would undoubtedly have wider appeal than wooden Andy. On the downside - he's a male, and the mere suggestion of the fifth male in a row as leader will have some of the party w@nkers screaming the gender equality line. There is another probably suitable leader, but also a male, and I'm sure you know who I mean. Pity. Some see Kelvin Davis as leadership material. I don't, but he seems to be a fair enough MP.
I will confess to winding you up occasionally, but I'm serious: if you don't see the damage Little is doing to Labour you should throw away the blinkers. Even Hardened Labour supporters, and I know some who are staunch as a Trump wall, cannot visualise Little as P.M.

**iceman** · 05-12-2016, 09:56 AM

Originally Posted by elZorro

Nick Smith has been the MP for Nelson since 1996. Maryan Street was the capable Labour candidate up against him in 2014, still well short. Before that, yes, 20 years ago, it was held by Labour, from 1956 to 1996. So it was a Labour stronghold, but now it's a National stronghold. Will the Greens want to go head-to-head with Nick Smith on environmental issues, and National's performance there? You bet.

By the way, how many is umpteen?

Nick has been a very popular electorate MP due to his relentless work for constituents. A large part of them are constituents that have not and probably never will vote National. Labour only lost the party vote a couple of elections ago from memory, which was a biggie for National in this Labour town.
Maryan Street was a visible candidate there for 3 elections from memory, but lost them all. She garnered support and votes from hardened Labour supporters but failed to make any inroads into swing or undecided voters. A strategic blunder from Labour to have her as a candidate.
They are hoping giving up and handing the fight over to the Greens will be a better option. I don't think so. While the electorate has many voters with very pro environment views, it also has a majority of voters who rely a lot on various primary industries for their livelihoods. They have no less concern for the environment but different and less radical views on how to best protect it without destroying all industries. Nick has been a good advocate of that approach.
I don't have access to the Nelson Labour Party membership records but loud rumours are that many have left.

Agree with you and FP about Stuart Nash. He seems capable and sensible but will probably be classed as a crazy right winger by the failed top brass in Wellington, like they did to Leggett who then departed to National to have a future in politics.

Continuing with Little at the helm has Labour on the road to extinction.

**craic** · 05-12-2016, 10:20 AM

Stuart Nash and several other dignitaries were in attendance at a dinner at the Napier RSA to celebrate our 100th anniversary on Saturday night. I think that he probably has enough support in Napier to retain his seat, however, at the last election he had the good fortune to have Garth McVicar ( Sensible Sentencing Trust) who is a well regarded local, divide the National vote and a National candidate who was unknown and never really came out from under his sheet. I have no idea who will front for National next year but this area is growing in prosperity and the Greens are looking to interfere here with little support.