Looks like Roger your caution is more than justified. While SUM looks good from a fundamental perspective - the SP completed today a beautiful "head and shoulders" - and kept dropping.
I am sure they will come back again one day, but this might take a wee while in a time of rising interest rates (and "consolidating" house prices).
Out for the near future - well, until the SP is clearly turning.
Agreed.
Originally Posted by percy
From NZ Shareholders Asssn December news letter, page 43.
Fiona Gray;"Personally we have seen several lots of friends move into retirement villages,and we've observed that with the people we know,the situation has been needs based and their decisions have been made independent of the state of the housing market."
Yes but whatever their needs are they have to be able to sell their houses first, something that's getting harder for people in Auckland.
Originally Posted by percy
Keep your powder dry.!!
The share price has gone down through the 200 day EMA.
At present time the sp is $4.50.
The 100 day EMA is $4.87,while the 200 day EMA is $4.72.
Wait until the trend turns.The trend is your friend.A lot of poor people have found they are even poorer after buying in a down trend.
Wait.!
Agreed 100%. I wish KW would come back...
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
I believe house price inflation is THE most important outside factor for Summerset, they can at least control build rate. House price inflation affects, development margin, resale margin and deferred management fees.
If you have taken the time to create a crude model (I have), you will see the huge affects.
I believe house price inflation is THE most important outside factor for Summerset, they can at least control build rate. House price inflation affects, development margin, resale margin and deferred management fees.
If you have taken the time to create a crude model (I have), you will see the huge affects.
I believe house price inflation is THE most important outside factor for Summerset, they can at least control build rate. House price inflation affects, development margin, resale margin and deferred management fees.
If you have taken the time to create a crude model (I have), you will see the huge affects.
There is no doubt that public perception at least, is that property in this area (Auck)is at best, leveling off--capital gain may not be the money maker it once was. If so ,they will have to rely on other factors.
There is no doubt that public perception at least, is that property in this area (Auck)is at best, leveling off--capital gain may not be the money maker it once was. If so ,they will have to rely on other factors.
I agree. That said I think their development model has matured quite nicely over the last couple of years. The extent to which a possible major correction in housing would impact development margins and the extent to which it would affect resale gains on existing units is what the market is currently grappling with. Who knows what new policies Bill English and his new team will have around housing and immigration and what effect rising interest rates will have on housing ?
A lot of unknowns at present and the market hates uncertainty. I am taking the approach that its best to play the technical factors and ignore what appears to be a solid supporting valuation (for this sector) from a fundamental valuation perspective for the foreseeable future. I'll buy three trading days after a confirmed break up through the 100 day MA and am quite happy to bide my time till then.
Last edited by Beagle; 15-12-2016 at 12:30 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
I take it you have also sold your Ryman holding which you considered cheap at around $8.60? Typical pre Christmas sell down on this stock and many others, the fair winds of January will push the price up as we head toward their Feb result, which will be very solid.
... and you well might be right couta with your prediction ... or you might be not. If I am buying below the MA200 I have typically quite tight stops ... and they have been triggered.
You are right - the fundamentals (for all retirement villages) look still rather healthy, but one of the reasons for the nice growth we enjoyed so far might be now gone: interest rates are now rising (thanks as well to the outcome of the US elections). Markets expect the housing market to stagnate or go down (at least in Auckland) and valuation gains might be for some time a thing of the past. As well home sellers might not have unlimited funds anymore to buy themselves into these quite expensive units.
Not sure either that the SP will increase following a fantastic EoY result - just look at what happened with the SP after Sums earnings announcement end of October.
But again - you might well be right - I can't see the future, but it feels that the odds are pointing to a bit more caution.
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
I believe house price inflation is THE most important outside factor for Summerset, they can at least control build rate. House price inflation affects, development margin, resale margin and deferred management fees.
If you have taken the time to create a crude model (I have), you will see the huge affects.
Is that historical or assumed future house price inflation or a bit of both?
I presume you have done the sums on the percent increase in the value of existing stock that they have applied.
For medium to long term holders all within normal limits
Sometimes people get too clever thinking about the future and guessing what a new government might do and all that sort of stuff
About to break out of that range though mate and technically it looks plain UGLY ! (Disc - Lost enough money this year fighting technical factors on AIR to learn not to try and swim against the tide)
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
For medium to long term holders all within normal limits
If the Linear Regression Channel (LRC) is plotted from the Low to the High, the SP has already broken down through the lower channel boundary, which also happens to be around the 200DMA and the rising support trend line.
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Reply With Quote
Modeling can be fun
Bookmarks