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12-04-2017, 05:12 PM
#111
Would have thought we would have heard something by now... Broker Firm offer opens first thing tomorrow...
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12-04-2017, 06:36 PM
#112
My Broker(craigs) said this arvo but no contact atp.
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12-04-2017, 06:42 PM
#113
Originally Posted by Joshuatree
My Broker(craigs) said this arvo but no contact atp.
Price to low? Oceania deciding to pull it at the last minute? Surely not...
I believe there was 'huge demand/interest', but at what price(s) this demand was at, I am not sure (huge demand for Tegel as well, but only at $1.55)
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12-04-2017, 06:56 PM
#114
I wonder if IFT brought it.??
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12-04-2017, 07:55 PM
#115
Originally Posted by Joshuatree
Has this changed much?. Couta you work in this industry in some capacity; do you have an opinion on Oceania as an investment.? Ive been pointed to chris lees latest newsletter where he is saying 82c or thereabouts is the price , at the lower end.
JT if you read back through this thread, you will see that I have a preference for the property development companies as an investment. Oceania has potential but not near as much as Sum and Rym IMO. A predominant care model is an expensive beast to run.
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12-04-2017, 08:54 PM
#116
Originally Posted by percy
I wonder if IFT brought it.??
If they did would that make IFT a good share to hold to have access to Oceania?
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12-04-2017, 09:09 PM
#117
Most probably.
I don't think IFT selling their MET holding ,means they are finished with the retirement sector in NZ.In fact, I think they will end up being big investors in this sector.How they do that will be interesting.
Yet I think Couta1's post #115 is how I see the best way to invest in this sector,for the reason he gave.
Last edited by percy; 12-04-2017 at 09:22 PM.
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12-04-2017, 09:30 PM
#118
Originally Posted by percy
I wonder if IFT brought it.??
From ift investor day sides:
".... this implies a high bar for investments that fall outside our current growth platforms, we will remain ready to act if markets disruptions provide highly attractive opportunities "
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12-04-2017, 09:57 PM
#119
Originally Posted by couta1
JT if you read back through this thread, you will see that I have a preference for the property development companies as an investment. Oceania has potential but not near as much as Sum and Rym IMO. A predominant care model is an expensive beast to run.
Thanks. Thats why i asked you why ARV has outperformed all others with its high predominant care model?.
With all the land and a target reduction from 67 to 44% care and with Ryman currently 56% care there looks to be ample growth there for Oceania to perform well against the others. 82c would be a pretty int entry point imo but hey it might do an ARV and get even cheaper after listing before performing; good entry then eh?
Trader Jackson quote.
In Recent Forsyth report on the retirement sector:
Needs Based (Being serviced apartments and care beds as a % of total portfolio) is a potential indicator as to how reliant on government funding a village is:
Arvida: 74%
Metlifecare: 18%
Oceania: 72%
Ryman: 56%
Summerset 32%
Trader Jackson quote."To give you an idea of how ARV and Oceania have (or likely to) change a few years after listing:
Arvida:
Prospectus (December 2014 - 17 villages):
Care Beds: 952
Retirement Units: 812 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 46%)
54% / 46% split
1764 Total
March 2017 - 26 Villages
Care Beds: 1461
Retirement Units: 1285 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 54%)
53% / 47% split
2746 Total
March 2019 Forsyth Forecast - 26 Villages
Care Beds: 1511
Retirement Units: 1517
50% / 50% split
3028 total
Oceania:
Prospectus (March 2017):
Care Beds: 2638
Care Suites/Care Studios: 241 ('high margin' care beds)
Retirement Units: 1071 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 100% - I think)
67% / 6% / 27% split
3950 total
March 2019: (Total Consented or Under Construction)
Care Beds: 2284
Care Suites/Care Studios: 580 ('high margin' care beds)
Retirement Units: 1669 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 100% - I think)
50% / 13% / 37% split
4533 total
March 2021?: (Total Consented, Under Construction and in Planning and Consenting phase)
Care Beds: 2284
Care Suites/Care Studios: 877 ('high margin' care beds)
Retirement Units: 2050 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 100% - I think)
44% / 17% / 39% split
5211 total"
Last edited by Joshuatree; 13-04-2017 at 09:00 AM.
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13-04-2017, 07:53 AM
#120
Originally Posted by Joshuatree
Thanks. Thats why i asked you why ARV has outperformed all others with its high predominant care model?.
With all the land and a target reduction from 67 to 44% care and with Ryman currently 56% care there looks to be ample growth there for Oceania to perform well against the others. 82c would be a pretty int entry point imo but hey it might do an ARV and get even cheaper after listing before performing; good entry then eh?
TJ.
In Recent Forsyth report on the retirement sector:
Needs Based (Being serviced apartments and care beds as a % of total portfolio) is a potential indicator as to how reliant on government funding a village is:
Arvida: 74%
Metlifecare: 18%
Oceania: 72%
Ryman: 56%
Summerset 32%
TJ .To give you an idea of how ARV and Oceania have (or likely to) change a few years after listing:
Arvida:
Prospectus (December 2014 - 17 villages):
Care Beds: 952
Retirement Units: 812 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 46%)
54% / 46% split
1764 Total
March 2017 - 26 Villages
Care Beds: 1461
Retirement Units: 1285 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 54%)
53% / 47% split
2746 Total
March 2019 Forsyth Forecast - 26 Villages
Care Beds: 1511
Retirement Units: 1517
50% / 50% split
3028 total
Oceania:
Prospectus (March 2017):
Care Beds: 2638
Care Suites/Care Studios: 241 ('high margin' care beds)
Retirement Units: 1071 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 100% - I think)
67% / 6% / 27% split
3950 total
March 2019: (Total Consented or Under Construction)
Care Beds: 2284
Care Suites/Care Studios: 580 ('high margin' care beds)
Retirement Units: 1669 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 100% - I think)
50% / 13% / 37% split
4533 total
March 2021?: (Total Consented, Under Construction and in Planning and Consenting phase)
Care Beds: 2284
Care Suites/Care Studios: 877 ('high margin' care beds)
Retirement Units: 2050 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 100% - I think)
44% / 17% / 39% split
5211 total
This seems very similar to 2 of my earlier posts (numbers 50 and 52)...
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