Orion Health

[moimoi]

Rog, for what its worth the announcement of 3rd April states ...

""Our working capital facilities remain in place with ASB Bank who remain committed to Orion Health. ""

[RupertBear]

Their quarterly publication says 'reduce'
(Not much difference but they do put an outright sell on some other stocks)

They have now updated it to a SELL on their website

[RTM]

I read a very good analysis of when to buy "cheap stocks". Might be worth a read and could help prevent cut fingers from the falling knife
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/35081

Thanks....appreciated. Good read.

[beetills]

Chris Lee has a few comments on ORION in his TAKING STOCK today.
Seemed,to me,to be on the positive side depending on what the main man decides.

[BlackPeter]

Chris Lee has a few comments on ORION in his TAKING STOCK today.
Seemed,to me,to be on the positive side depending on what the main man decides.

Well, yes ... Chris knows and clearly respects McCrae - and sees him (and his company) as visionary designer of health software solutions which (if used) would make the world a better place.

I think he might be quite right in that regard, but this does not mean that McCrae is as well an experienced director or has a commercially clued up board (which is allowed do what they think is best). Even if the OHE solutions are the best money can buy (I honestly don't know) does this not mean that the world necessarily will buy them. History is full of examples where second best did win (remember VHS or MS/DOS)?

From other sources it sounds as well that McCrae might have a somewhat direct management style, which might be a problem for optimal board performance now, and probably more so if he loses majority ownership.

I see this company as an innovator with possibly not enough commercial acumen. The world is full of them, but many unfortunately don't make it to the finish line.

The best solution probably would be if he finds a partner with deep pockets and the right commercial experience, who still allows him to determine the technical direction of the company as long as he allows them to determine the commercial direction. Whether this would work out at the end (if such a partner exists at all) - I don't know. At this stage is OHE in my view a high risk proposition, though probably not that desperate as e.g. WYN in recent times. Opposed to them they do have products and a reasonably reliable income stream, just not enough to pay the big development team.

Discl: dont hold and don't intend to buy in the current situation.

[moimoi]

What form will the investment take?
"The Company has a number of options available that it will continue to evaluate."

While not specifically saying so a cap raise has to be one of the "number of options"...? or no..?

So what would that look like..

Cap raise 1 for 5 @ $1.25 to raise $40M?

[trader_jackson]

Cap raise 1 for 5 @ $1.25 to raise $40M?

$1.25??

$1.34 is the current share price... a discount for such a large cap raise at not even 7 percent is very optimistic, even more so given the situation... they'll be lucky to do a 1 for 5 at above $1 in my view, but then again they shouldn't have to worry about it... I'm sure ASB will be there till the very end and only to happy for OHE to begin drawing down on their rock solid facility

[Beagle]

$1.25??

$1.34 is the current share price... a discount for such a large cap raise at not even 7 percent is very optimistic, even more so given the situation... they'll be lucky to do a 1 for 5 at above $1 in my view, but then again they shouldn't have to worry about it... I'm sure ASB will be there till the very end and only to happy for OHE to begin drawing down on their rock solid facility

Its not optimistic its naïve. In my opinion any new investor would want to see Mr McCrae relinquish his CEO role and step aside into a product development role. This is the consensus view of a behind the paywall survey undertaken by NBR very recently. His control freak nature has cost shareholders dearly. I see a capital raise as being possible but only if he steps aside and a proper governance situation is put in place, (new directors and a new CEO).

Fact is his conduct in running the company down to a paucity of cash on hand and reliance on the banking facility to pull him through shows a high degree of commercial naiveté which would have any seasoned commercial investor rushing for a thorough overhaul of operational systems as well as compliance, management and governance systems as a necessary prerequisite prior to any high risk investment in this loss making enterprise.

I think any possible investor can now drive an extremely hard bargain and would be looking for a degree of material influence and would expect to receive same as reward for their high risk investment at say 60-75 cents per share.
25% stake at 60-75 cents per share along with a thorough overhaul of all systems and overheads looks like a possible outcome, probably the best one for everyone concerned.

This is NOT a stock for grannies and orphans. A little better prospects than PEB but that's not saying much !

Disc: I think any director who has the gall to bring a company to the market without any financial projections is well overdue for a commercial reality check.

[Lola]

An excellent synopsis
In particular the last paragraph.

What is intriguing is that in some of these failed offerings journalist Chris Lee keeps popping up recommending them viz OHE and WYN to name just two.

First NZ featured in both the aforementioned incidentally .

[Beagle]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...+18+April+2017

Not realizing the current severity of the cash flow crisis ?, you be the judge. One things for sure, if they do manage to get a further capital raise done it won't be close to the current price. Whether there's a relief rally after that notwithstanding an issue at what could be significantly less than the current SP, who can say...

No matter what you think of Mr Mcrae's stated back to basics approach any company losing money at the rate they are needs to be classified at highly speculative and extreme risk in my opinion. Be careful folks its very easy for a CEO and controlling shareholder to have myopic vision and not being able to see the wood for the trees in terms of the commercial cash flow reality of the situation (in my experience as an accountant for over 30 years), is more common than many might imagine... It must be cheap because its now only trading at one fifth of the share price it once was right ? Not necessarily !