Quote Originally Posted by myles View Post
BJ1 I think you've said something like that before - can you expand on it a bit? The Harmoney forecast default rates are an annual percent of loans, not interest rate?

If you assume the average loan in the above is $100, that's only 8 loans defaulted - for the spread that looks like less than Harmoney would forecast to me?

The 36 vs 60 month comparison isn't as simple as it looks - an overly simple example - to get the same interest as a 60 month loan you need one 36 month loan and (to make it easy) a 24 month loan - the chances of a default increase for the two loans vs the one lone. Not the best example but perhaps helps think it through.
well crunching some numbers my weighted average annual default rate is 1.87%

I have 0.89%

The weighted average age of loan I have is 4.02 months.

Therefore 1.87 / (12 / 4.02) = 0.63% is where I should be right now.

So I am tracking slightly higher than I should be.

Hmm it is like 89/63 = 40% higher than what it should be.... ><