I don't agree with your calculation - as per my previous comment - early repayments are earning interest not included in your determination of 12% - defaults have already been factored in for all loans (these were actuals for the full period, re-investment included).
I've calculated my actual return for just those E5 loans as 16.99% (pre tax), 19.98% without fees.
Some of the original loans are still current and earning 38.25% interest[rates over the period include: 38.25, 26.95, 28.69]
This was why I approached the comparison from the actual loss side, much easier to calculate than trying to calculate the actual gain, which has to be done on an individual loan basis...and why it is pointless generalising the final value...
[Calculated by weighting individual returns and annualising both returns and default losses.]
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