SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

[Baa_Baa]

Book value about $3.40

Not likely to be earning enough to cover its cost of capital (ie value destroying) for many years so no reason it should trade above book value ...unless one is full of optimism and convinced that SML will one day be great.

Said this when share price was $10 ...then again when it was $12 ..and again at $8 and again at $6 ......and one day I might say it’s about fair value when share price is about $3.40

You have a special note on my chart now, $3.40 "book value", dated 10/2/21. Let's assume the SP gets down to your book value you say also (fair value), would that equate to a buy? Seems there's no end to this company digging debt holes that they can't fill anytime soon. Maybe a buy is more likely a significant SP discount to book value, assuming they're not going to bust. Even that might be drawing a long bow.

[Beagle]

Good post Baa Baa. The truth is very ugly. Forecast is for 16.9 cps. Put a no growth, (which it is now), PE of 11 on that and you get $1.86.
With the current management and board I wouldn't even be interested at that price.

[winner69]

You have a special note on my chart now, $3.40 "book value", dated 10/2/21. Let's assume the SP gets down to your book value you say also (fair value), would that equate to a buy? Seems there's no end to this company digging debt holes that they can't fill anytime soon. Maybe a buy is more likely a significant SP discount to book value, assuming they're not going to bust. Even that might be drawing a long bow.

Cool BaaBaa

You also need to add a note about Beagles possible 189 while you are at.

Was only a month or so punters were happy at buying in the 5’s and expecting it go to its former heights ...hmmm

[winner69]

Got back on this horse at $5.40 for another crack. Goldmans have upgraded to Buy with a $7.02 target price.

Hope you got off the horse Johnny ...before it broke a leg

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Hope you got off the horse Johnny ...before it broke a leg

Maybe even two legs! I sold that parcel in the $5.20's from memory, when a2 when into a halt.

[ralph]

Fairly steady downtrend now, maybe decent buying at some stage in the future, but certainly not yet

I agree at sp 4.3 its cheaper than fsf 4.6 ! and as they are joined at the hip to atm through the A2 milk trend/fad when they pick up so will synlait .
Ratkin this could be rock bottom for this Sp

[kiwi_crusader]

Whats the story with Synlait closing down their Talbot Forest cheese production factory at Temuka for 6 months? Apparently keeping staff on full pay while they bring the building up to production standards and sort out their waste product dumping problems. Bought a lemon, court case with periours owner under way.

[BlackPeter]

Whats the story with Synlait closing down their Talbot Forest cheese production factory at Temuka for 6 months? Apparently keeping staff on full pay while they bring the building up to production standards and sort out their waste product dumping problems. Bought a lemon, court case with periours owner under way.

Interesting ... do you have a source for this info you can share?

Talbot probably too small in the overall scheme to make this news material ...

[kiwi_crusader]

Interesting ... do you have a source for this info you can share?

Talbot probably too small in the overall scheme to make this news material ...

Yes, they told their transport company Friday last week that there will be no more cheese going to Christchurch cold storage for 6 months. Staff filled in the rest.

[Baa_Baa]

Yes, they told their transport company Friday last week that there will be no more cheese going to Christchurch cold storage for 6 months. Staff filled in the rest.

Sounds 'material' to me. The good news just keeps on coming with SML.