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13-07-2021, 03:28 PM
#9571
Member
Originally Posted by Beagle
Looks like someone let the cat out of the bag that this one is the cheapest in the sector by far and the whole sector will benefit massively from years of strong tailwinds as risk averse old folks seek the sanctuary of a safe place to ride out the years of covid risks ahead of us.
Just as well I have rerated this to BBB (Beagle been busy buying), opps that's 4 B's
4 Bs
Last time I heard that was when i was a kid and a strap leather hung on the kitchen wall with four big Bs stamped into it, this was known as the "Boisterous Boys Bum Buster" It worked and my brother and i deserved it!
I hope your 4Bs amend this behavior of not rating OCA high enough
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13-07-2021, 03:29 PM
#9572
Annual increases in property's prices impressive but growth is slowing
.from a gallop to a canter
Latest month 0.9% x 12 = 10.8% annualized. Up 2.4% past 3 months x 4 = 9.6% annualized.
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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13-07-2021, 04:11 PM
#9573
Could be heading to highest close for 5 months
thats good recovering that well
Maybe even a new all time high this week
As market wakes up best not to miss out
..get in today
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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13-07-2021, 04:31 PM
#9574
Arvida currently trading at 1.45 times NTA...seems perfectly reasonable to me and I hold some. Same 1.45 times NTA of $1.20 for OCA would give a share price of $1.74.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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13-07-2021, 04:50 PM
#9575
Originally Posted by Beagle
Arvida currently trading at 1.45 times NTA...seems perfectly reasonable to me and I hold some. Same 1.45 times NTA of $1.20 for OCA would give a share price of $1.74.
I did that comparison with SUM and came up with $3.10 (someone said NTA is closer to $1.36 now)
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13-07-2021, 06:13 PM
#9576
IPO just over 4 years ago at 79 cents
..so about 18% pa return (plus divies)
Consensus view its undervalued but past point of inflection and with eps accretive acquisitions and a rerate imminent we should expect at least 30% pa over next 2 years
thats a share price over 260 as a minimum in 2 years
But if Brett tells a good enough story and delivers on it and the market actually sees OCA is as good as if not better than SUM then 4 bucks it will be.
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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13-07-2021, 06:41 PM
#9577
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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13-07-2021, 07:52 PM
#9578
winner & Beagle - I haven't been around long enough to make this assessment, but with the collective brain power and analysis that occurs here, does ST tend to lead price changes for individual stocks? Or is commentary more a reflection of momentum? In other words, do you find ST comments are able to predict movements, or do they confirm existing trends? Or something else?
Cheers
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13-07-2021, 08:02 PM
#9579
Originally Posted by Ferg
winner & Beagle - I haven't been around long enough to make this assessment, but with the collective brain power and analysis that occurs here, does ST tend to lead price changes for individual stocks? Or is commentary more a reflection of momentum? In other words, do you find ST comments are able to predict movements, or do they confirm existing trends? Or something else?
Cheers
Stick around long enough and you will see there is little correlation. You're better to stick with your shorter-than-average MA plan Ferg.
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13-07-2021, 08:41 PM
#9580
Originally Posted by Biscuit
Stick around long enough and you will see there is little correlation. You're better to stick with your shorter-than-average MA plan Ferg.
Thanks Biscuit. I was starting to get that sense but I generally don't use TA other than very simplistically to time my buying during what I think are temporary dips.
I have tracked my purchases based on following ST buy recommendations (i.e. "Follow", n = 5), doing the opposite of the ST sell recommendations i.e. buying against the trend ("Contrarian", n = 5) and also those that are unloved by ST and not regularly commented upon where I did my own research ("Independent", n = 10) where n is the number of stock purchases. Neutral is no gain or loss as measured by -2% < x < 2%. Anything over 2% is a win, and anything under -2% is classified as a loss.
The Win/Loss/Neutral results to date are:
Follow = 60%/20%/20% (includes OCA win)
Contrarian = 60%/40%/0%
Independent =80%/10%/10%
The losses are unrealised. I see nothing to convince me these shares are over-valued so I'm willing to see how they play out and they may yet turn to gains.
What I can conclude is that it is a bit of a crap shoot following ST, and I get the best results doing my own research. Although I am happy to admit I have a very small sample of 20. I'm curious to hear others opinions on this, hence the question.
Cheers
Last edited by Ferg; 13-07-2021 at 08:45 PM.
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