Dow

[Dr_Who]

I am staying on the sideline abit. This Dow can go both ways.

[Hoop]

I am staying on the sideline abit. This Dow can go both ways.

Add another way Doc....sideways.

I've been mentioning this strong 7900-8400 resistance band for a while now.
The DOW has fallen back within this band again. It tried to break out last night (intraday high 8377) but failed to close at 8331 (+44).

The market is skittish atm and the two forces may be fighting either other for a little while ....thus ...that possible sideways trading pattern scenario.

Re: the charts it wouldn't surprise me to see trading range averaging between 7900-8400 with Max High 9000 and Min Low 7500) ....accompanied with heart attack material each time it heads down to test 7900 or (mid7800)...and ultimately if it happened the heart pounding test of the November low (7500)

If the DOW got inundated with immense selling pressure and some how does break down through that very strong 7900-8400 zone all is not lost until...
.... the DOW fell below the November2008 bottom that of the 7500 major support mark....this would upset that bullish inverse head and shoulder pattern that the DOW is presently setting up....

Then again the future usually proves me wrong....so I am ready to jump one way or the other, if my assumption proves to be wrong.

[ananda77]

...would strongly assume, that SPX 500 key support level *875 would need to be tested (at a minimum) for this rally to go for target without any deeper correction

...top *930 to target *1000 > 70 points; who would want to go in big for this sort of gain in the short term;

...in 2007 at the SPX 500 top, bullish sentiment reached 88% bulls; last Friday, the reading stood at 85% (if 85% of market participants are long, who are the institutions selling to???

...Institutional selling was above its March/May resistance line on Monday and it closed above the shorter term horizontal resistance line yesterday (Wednesday)

...Wednesday, inflowing liquidity moved down sharply

Trading Strategy: sideline (safest); short with upside stop;

Kind Regards

[STRAT]

...would strongly assume, that SPX 500 key support level *875 would need to be tested (at a minimum) for this rally to go for target without any deeper correction

Kind Regards

Hi Ananda77.
Was looking over the S&P500 and I cant identify the support you refer to at 875. Can you help me out here?

[STRAT]

Add another way Doc....sideways.

I could live with that Hoop. There will always be stocks that will perform in those conditions.

[ananda77]

Hi Ananda77.
Was looking over the S&P500 and I cant identify the support you refer to at 875. Can you help me out here?

...on a closing basis in the daily/weekly timeframe:

-April 17th High SPX 500 *875.6 was not exceeded until month end April
-1st of May marked the start of another advance exceeding *875.6 at the close
to the May 8th High *930
-*875 > bottomline for any sustained continuation of the current rally

...SPX 500 closed at *883 with intraday low *876.9 (not bad)...but well below last month's high *889

...this should give the index enough strength to test resistance at *915
-successful test of *915 > SPX 500 *944/*967*(+)
-failure in the *915 range (most likely) will result in a substantial downturn, possibly testing March 09 Low SPX 500 *666
-the deciding point for a shallow or deeper correction is a successful/failed test of SPX 500 *816/*826 range

Trading Strategy: sideline (safest); hedge: short term neutral to short bias to *915 with sell stops respectfully below 875.6

!!!LONG TERM, REMAIN ACUTELY AWARE OF THE BEAR!!!

(there is no guarantee and strategies are just ideas)

Kind Regards

Kind Regards

[STRAT]

Thanks Ananda77.
I appreciate your reply

[ananda77]

...SPX 500 tilted at *915 and closed at *908

Trading Strategy: sideline (safest); hedge: short term neutral to short bias to *915 with sell stops respectfully below 875.6

(there is no guarantee and strategies are just ideas)

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...SPX 500 closed at *903; for the last two days, the volume on the NYSE was quite thin, while the down volume by day end was up today, indicating increasing selling pressure;

...however, unless *875 is taken out decisively, it pays to be careful on the downside;

Kind Regards

[Peitro]

Hate to say it, the worm has turned.

US$ in real trouble, DOW to take a hit.