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03-08-2016, 11:42 AM
#7731
Originally Posted by Roger
Big falls in U.S. airlines stocks overnight on concerns regarding passenger yield, (Delta's yield down 7% YOY in July). Keep you seat belt fastened today folks.
Pretty weak correlation between AIR and ^XAL on a daily / weekly basis so no worries
I said last Wednesday was going to be a watershed day - actually was Friday
Up 17 cents since last Wed - 8% not too bad for a few days work
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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03-08-2016, 12:11 PM
#7732
Originally Posted by winner69
Pretty weak correlation between AIR and ^XAL on a daily / weekly basis so no worries
Couldn't agree more, AIR never directly correlated to XAL movement be it up or down...and what's holding the price today is bargain hunters trying to take positions for upcoming FY results in few weeks time.
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04-08-2016, 12:02 PM
#7733
Sort of wondering ...
AIR still happens to be on my watchlist (it is a good company after all, and I used to make money with them) - and it just took its turn for a wee review.
As well - trying to understand some of the hype in this thread ...
Fundamentals:
forward PE: 4.3 - Great ... however, even optimistic analysts predict this year to be the best ... all downhill from here.
average P/E (last 6 years): 15.3; not that flash for a cyclical stock in a downtrend ...
SP to NTA: 1.4 (ok-ish, but I remember times when it was smaller than 1 ... this might be a better time to buy)
Consensus of 6 Analysts (4traders): $2.22 to $2.60 with a mean value of $2.42 and a "Hold" recommendation;
Industry:
Cyclical and many airlines are currently loosing margins due to increasing overcapacity (some are making losses). Rising tensions around the world might put a damper on travel ... though cheap oil is obviously an enabler - and NZ tourism might have another good summer (though not quite sure, how the BREXIT will impact on that).
Trend:
AIRNZ.JPG
Well - hands up, if you think this is an uptrend ...
So - not sure, traders can push it anywhere, but from a fundamental analysis it looks fair valued at best, and the trend speaks for itself.
Wouldn't be surprised if the SP holds (or lightly rises) until the dividend is declared ... and steeply drops after it goes ex dividend.
Anyway - I will keep them on the long-term watchlist ... I am sure, there will be times I see them again as BUY, but not now. Much more attractive below $1.50 or thereabouts ...
Discl: not holding;
obviously: DYOR - my crystal ball is cloudy!
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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04-08-2016, 12:34 PM
#7734
I for one always appreciate you sharing your nous BP.Sure looks like AIR is trying to form a new trend but too early to tell imo.Im not far off being in the black and look forward to bailing out of AIR. Tempting to jump after the div without a parachute (i.e. seeing if i can direct my flailing limbs towards that stretchy soft landing net) but many others may be thinking the same.Timing is everything.
World first: Skydiver plummets 25,000 ft -- with no parachute - CNN.com
Last edited by Joshuatree; 04-08-2016 at 05:18 PM.
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04-08-2016, 12:35 PM
#7735
10 year average PE is about 11. Forecast NTA at 30 June 2016 is $2.01 so price to NTA is only 1.15 using consensus NTA analyst figure. Consensus PE next year is 4.8 taking into account average analysts expected impact on FY17 earnings so trading at well under half the 10 year average PE despite expected effects of extra competition in FY17. Stock looks good value relative to its peers most of whom trade on FY17 PE of circa 6 and most at significantly higher premiums to NTA despite the apparently lacklustre outlook for the sector.
I agree the shares will drop by the amount of the dividend as soon as it goes ex but astute followers of the dividend stripping theory will know the chances of relative outperformance in the few weeks before and after going ex are high on the balance of probabilities.
I'd like to see it crack the 100 day MA line, thanks for the chart and good luck getting them at circa $1.50...there might be one or two people just ahead of you in the queue hunting for value at that price
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...07/financials/
Last edited by Beagle; 04-08-2016 at 01:20 PM.
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04-08-2016, 02:20 PM
#7736
BP there's bargin hunting and fire sale hunting, methinks your in the latter category, but you have to be optimistic, right. Your crystal ball seems cloudier than a mountain white out.
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04-08-2016, 04:08 PM
#7737
Originally Posted by couta1
BP there's bargin hunting and fire sale hunting, methinks your in the latter category, but you have to be optimistic, right. Your crystal ball seems cloudier than a mountain white out.
Hmm, yes ... I do prefer to buy undervalued shares, but that's just my personal preference . Re the cloudiness of my crystal ball - I guess this is much easier to assess after the event, but you well might be right. It is not always correct, but than - more often than not.
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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04-08-2016, 04:32 PM
#7738
Thought you might like to know
Report landed on my desktop this morning which, in world ranking, places AIR
41st by revenue and
59th by RPK.
QAN (15 & 22)
VAH (39 & 53)
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
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04-08-2016, 04:47 PM
#7739
Originally Posted by Paper Tiger
Report landed on my desktop this morning which, in world ranking, places AIR
41st by revenue and
59th by RPK.
QAN (15 & 22)
VAH (39 & 53)
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Just shows you what a Dog VAH really is, ahead of Air on revenue yet needing constant life support to keep it flying, and Qantas, good airline but no divvy even with all that revenue.
Last edited by couta1; 04-08-2016 at 04:50 PM.
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04-08-2016, 05:00 PM
#7740
Think first and then post
Originally Posted by couta1
Just shows you what a Dog VAH really is, ahead of Air on revenue yet needing constant life support to keep it flying, and Qantas, good airline but no divvy even with all that revenue.
And yet both are probably better, or at least less worse investments, than AIR at the present.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
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