RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[Lego_Man]

Her posts are self-adverts as you need to pay for her analysis these days.

Yes, but her articles are among the best in the industry so i don't begrudge her that.

[Ggcc]

Close at $4.15 - this is a new 10+ year low point! No one predicted this during the stock's halcyon days. Perhaps growth should no longer be the ambition after a certain point - look for the sweet spot, scale back the overhead/development and treat shareholders with the respect they deserve.

Board members in this sector are captured by a vision of the social good to be achieved, which leads to excessive exposure to various risks inherent. And there are an escalating number of unlisted operators intent on eating their lunch in the more upmarket segment - think Hoppers, Generus Group and a number of others with scale who leave the care component alone. And quite a few now advertise that they share profits on exit as well, which has the capability to impact the conventional RV model.

At this rate Ryman and SUM will be of equal value shortly...... Something someone mentioned would never happen.

[troyvdh]

Im thinking of all those funds ...ironically retirement funds who viewed RYM as "blue stock"...
Again I can fully understand why many people avoid the SM.

In NZ.

[kiwikeith]

Im thinking of all those funds ...ironically retirement funds who viewed RYM as "blue stock"...
Again I can fully understand why many people avoid the SM.

In NZ.

I remember visiting one of the investor presentations run by a sharebroking company. Ryman was one of the presenters and the shares were trading around $15. I said to one of the analysts with the sharebrokers, as I was munching on a free sausage roll, that I could not see how one could justify the share price of Rym based on their financials. The analyst, who was probably about half my age, told me that history indicated that no one regretted buying Rym shares.

[troyvdh]

How was the sausage roll.Remember that about 2011 they had had 1/5 split.
TBH...lets be fair....There are are a huge number of us (born 1956) ...world wide that will probably end up in one of these entites.
Perhaps it has been another case of "irrational exurberance".....as once a wise man said.
BTW Kiwi did you ask that analyst how many shares he had.

[Bjauck]

Close at $4.15 - this is a new 10+ year low point! No one predicted this during the stock's halcyon days. Perhaps growth should no longer be the ambition after a certain point - look for the sweet spot, scale back the overhead/development and treat shareholders with the respect they deserve.

Board members in this sector are captured by a vision of the social good to be achieved, which leads to excessive exposure to various risks inherent. And there are an escalating number of unlisted operators intent on eating their lunch in the more upmarket segment - think Hoppers, Generus Group and a number of others with scale who leave the care component alone. And quite a few now advertise that they share profits on exit as well, which has the capability to impact the conventional RV model.

If there is a growing shortage of beds, perhaps any government reform of the sector’s tax and regulatory framework may investigate mandating a certain minimum ratio of (barely profitable) standard rest home beds per number of ORAs supplied, in exchange for minimal reforms of the ORA system. Otherwise more operators would desert rest homes in favour of profitable ORAs. It would perhaps appeal to the Coalition government if it would mean taxpayers would not be required to further subsidise rest home care to make it appeal to investors.

[Balance]

Sobering to see that Ryman has been the worse performing RV stock since 2022 although all three non-performers, RYM, OCA & ARV, have cost shareholders very very dearly to be in them in the last 2 years+. Have left out SUM as it broke the down trend line in the last year.

Interesting to note that all three follow the overall same trend line (down, up and down) so the sp performance malaise appears to be an industry wide issue rather than just a specific stock.

Market waking up to just how cashflow hungry the three RV operators are and how they have been piling on debt to pay dividends as well as pay for ever more expensive land and developments.

[https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/chart/R...RkaW5nIjowfX0-

[kiwikeith]

How was the sausage roll.Remember that about 2011 they had had 1/5 split.
TBH...lets be fair....There are are a huge number of us (born 1956) ...world wide that will probably end up in one of these entites.
Perhaps it has been another case of "irrational exurberance".....as once a wise man said.
BTW Kiwi did you ask that analyst how many shares he had.

Yeah the free sausage roll was great. The stock brokers know how to put on a good feed. I did not ask the analyst, who looked to be still in his 20s, if he actually owned any shares in Rym. Gordon MacCleod presented for Ryman and he was an impressive speaker. The guys from Freightways and one of the power companies (cant remember which one) were pretty good as well - but not as polished as Gordy. I just had the feeling that the analyst thought I was a silly old fool for even questioning the value of the bluest of blue chips- Ryman.

[Jenny Ruth]

Hi all. My latest column published on my Substack, Just the Business, takes a look at the NZX-listed retirement operators and how they rank, including that Summerset is likely to overtake Ryman as the largest in the sector in a few years. The headline is: Mirror, Mirror on the wall, which is the biggest retirement village operator?
And you can find it here:
https://substack.com/@justthebusinessjennyruth

[Bjauck]

A big drop to $4.07 at close of trade. How long until SUM is three times the SP of RYM? It used to be said that the ratio was 2:1 in favour of RYM. Those days are long gone.