WBC - Westpac

[Snoopy]

Surely you know the answer without asking?

I think the answer depends on what you are after and your circumstances.

1/ If as an NZ investor, you are after a fully imputed dividend yield then you might look elsewhere. Heartland will give you that higher gross yield. The problem is I value Heartland at $1.42 (long term business cycle average). At $1.76 trading on the market today, that makes Heartland overvalued by 24%. OTOH Westpac is currently trading at $31.65 which is 9% over my 'NZ Investor' valuation of $29.00. So both are overvalued from an NZ perspective, but Westpac less so. So I would be tempted to buy neither, but put WBC on my watch list and see what happens with the price.

2/ If you take the Oz market perspective and regard the price as 'beaten down', then now looks to be a good time to buy for a recovery. The problem is, how much 'historical growth premium' is built into the WBC share price? I am forecasting a small drop in dividend yield in my modelling ($1.68 annual dividend average going forwards, a drop from last year's $1.88). I reckon even this reduced dividend justifies the $A38.30 share price. So I don't see much medium term risk here. Buy for the dividend and maybe even some share price recovery in this circumstance.

SNOOPY