Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[ananda77]

...save trading 'long' above SPX 500 *2030. maybe the market will surprise us with a prolonged base building sideways action

kind regards

[winner69]

Hi Winner
It's not good news when copper drop as it is seen as an global economic indicator...You get political BS from time to time when USA has a crack at China..one was when China (not the sporting thing..old Chap) trickle dumped US$ and bought copper reserves during the early recovery...however from chart history that's what always happens..... Copper is a good leading indicator to show cyclic changes especially equity change from bear to bull (100% accurate so far in the last 100 years).

What is a very worrying sight is the pause in the equity markets...its like it being suspended and are defying gravity....a bit like those old cartoons when a character e.g Wle-E-Coyote runs of a cliff suspended in mid-air before gravity takes over


The chart below with the 3 indexes relating to each other shows a worrying divergence towards the S&P500 index

Hoop .....not looking good for Dr Copper at the moment

Things repeating themselves?

[ananda77]

...am trading now expecting a 10% correct for the US market (finally at last) and the 5000 mark for the Aus 200 (no time mucking around at last).
Building the Asian region
kind regards and be successful

...still think the market remains in a topping pattern leading to a at least 10% correction.
... to early to be sure, as the VIX and the NYA-index amongst others are in triangular formations

with a break out soon. Also, the NYA-index is in the process of testing a triple top. Personally, would not short the market outright because of the triple top test
... waiting for the break out and test result
... in the meantime, the bull's and bears are fighting it out as seen in yesterday's trading.
kind regards

[Hoop]

Hoop .....not looking good for Dr Copper at the moment

Things repeating themselves?

Hmmm...maybe

The investor herd is anxious and easily spooked atm...All it needs is a piece of systemic bad news, and voila...a possible stampede....

......Oh there we go.. a flash crash in Europe...Gee the herd are jumpy today..S&P500 futures suddenly dropped to below 2000.. methinks this is not a healthy sign Winner

[ananda77]

...still think the market remains in a topping pattern leading to a at least 10% correction.
... to early to be sure, as the VIX and the NYA-index amongst others are in triangular formations with a break out soon. Also, the NYA-index is in the process of testing a triple top. Personally, would not short the market outright because of the triple top test
... waiting for the break out and test result
... in the meantime, the bull's and bears are fighting it out as seen in yesterday's trading.
kind regards

...the positive sign yesterday in the US markets: gain/loss momentum indicator switching positive
...this was the handle for successful intervention tonight ...-otherwise the markets would have gone over the cliff
...the VIX, NYA, Liquidity Inflows successfully tested their respective triangular support tonight -no breakout has occurred-

...tonight's trading may have stopped the week long rout, but it's definitely to early to be sure.
kind regards

[winner69]

Early next week that 2100 will happen, then look forward to 2200. Log periodic ups and downs still happening

Today's impetus earnings driven too, nice

The worlds a happy place at the moment eh

[Hoop]

Early next week that 2100 will happen, then look forward to 2200. Log periodic ups and downs still happening

Today's impetus earnings driven too, nice

The worlds a happy place at the moment eh

Yep the world markets are indeed a happy place today.. There's a new supply of QE in town ... withdrawl symptoms easing... beautiful psychedelic hues everywhere...wow.. its driven by flower power..ahhh thanks Mr Draghi

[Baa_Baa]

Is anyone else keeping an eye on this, the 7 year cycle? The internet is littered with articles about it, here's one for an entre. http://www.kitco.com/ind/Kilbach/201...ion-Ahead.html Not saying I believe in this but you can't deny the toppy look of the DJIA etc, and it's year 7. Anyway, interested to hear from anyone who's watching.

[Hoop]

Is anyone else keeping an eye on this, the 7 year cycle? The internet is littered with articles about it, here's one for an entre. http://www.kitco.com/ind/Kilbach/201...ion-Ahead.html Not saying I believe in this but you can't deny the toppy look of the DJIA etc, and it's year 7. Anyway, interested to hear from anyone who's watching.

Yes Baa Baa I keep an eye on this cycle and many other bits and pieces.

Charting throws up all sorts of weird and wonderful cyclic stuff to which some events have nothing in common with each other..yet they work until their oscillations goes out of sync some time in the "unpredictable" future.

As a chartist I hunt around for correlating cyclic events to help me raise the probabilities of a future outcome (a little hobby of mine...Being a property investor for most of my life the 7 year cycle was one of my first cyclic events I researched as a chartist..My conclusion in trying to explain why the 7 year cycle pattern is so commonly found throughout history and has become one of those "rules of thumb" can be explained as some sort of long term human group behavioural reversal pattern...which affects group decision making..it not only effects business but individual personal lives as well...e.g the so-called 7 year itch..
Being a chartist I don't care if any of this stuff is relevant or not..I don't believe or disbelieve..I only believe in reoccurring events being in constant sync of each other..

I have mentioned this sort of stuff on ST before ..
With every set of two (or more) factors correlating or near correlating causing an identical event .. I call it a duck....Taking an individual event whether its a correlating cycle or near correlating or lagging leading inverse or differing oscillators syncing whatever, it's usually a good enough indicator to alert an investor ..but the old TA saying goes 'dont rely on one indicator (duck) alone" ...

With this Duck Methodology, the ultimate prediction power becomes apparent when all the ducks line up in a row just before that event occurs...(the ducks with differing oscillations and behavioural cycles all converge and come into a brief syncing period) e.g 2007/08 GFC..

Re diagram all the ducks lined up at the top.

[Baa_Baa]

Thanks Hoop, hopefully more are also watching, the uncanny recurrence of boom and bust of the 7 year cycle.

As one who also takes cues from the charts, I agree that aligning the ducks, or indicators is important. Stepping back and observing the macro view is also helpful. There was no surprise in the GFC, it was forecast accurately by numerous concerned commentators. The internet was littered with 'doomsayers', and that time they were right, despite some who would say 'even the stopped clock tells the right time twice a day'. I remember the day when it actually happened, when GFC finally hit the news, my thoughts were, it's actually happening!

So as a starter for discussion, one can easily observe the correlation of the NZX to the DOW, and the 7 year cycle. One can also easily read all the views and their linkages to various mumbo jumbo and witchcraft, however sticking with the simple stuff ... year 7 of the bull is 2015 (Sept 2014 actually), and year 7 of the low is 2016. The DOW is undeniably toppy, and so is the NZX. People can take that for whatever they like, though ignoring it might be foolish.

For my part, I've just tightened up my stops a bit. Nothing too drastic, but there's no way I'm going to ride a GFC2 into the ground, if I can avoid it.

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