Investing strategies and secular bear markets

[Hoop]

Monday in USA been and gone and after a 100 down start the DOW finished only 5 points down.....so still none the wiser today.
The Dow still remains at the watershed, so the Bull is still alive but looking sick.

Colin Twiggs is negative, he expects another correction NOW of at least 10%. He wrote this as at 20th October, and has predicted the previous corrections before they happened.
With the DOW breather today this may present an opportunity to exit some less performing NZX stocks today althogh with the Labour weekend holiday the NZX might be in catch up (down) mode this morning so perhaps wait until ASX opens may be prudent, depends on the NZX opening however as many investors still think it's good times down under.

I think it is time to start departing the market, as the risk is now too high. Money in the DB trading account (PIE) at 7.5% is looking like a winning bet to me.

As at now my portolio is Stocks 80% Cash 20%

[Deev8]

Monday in USA been and gone and after a 100 down start the DOW finished only 5 points down.....

I believe that the Dow finished 44.95 points up at 13,566.97 on Monday. Friday's close was 13,522.02.

[Hoop]

Yes Deev..I tend to be rather slow in the mornings..it was a quick post and forgot about the day light saving effect..yes the Dow moved up quick in the end of trading and today it is 56 up at the moment to 13623.

It needs to be above 14000 to break the resistence and lessen the downward correction risk.

It's these secondary corrections coming out from the Dow which is causing problems to our markets.

For us to predict the next correction, it makes sense to monitor the Dow very closely (as I am doing).

Edit: another late end of session surge up 117 to 13684 since writing this post.

[Hoop]

The threat of a secondary correction from the DOW is easing. A good rise on friday to 13807 has to be seen as a positive move from the previous few days of hesitancy and intraday swings. Also the DOW has created a "floor" (resistance level) at 13500).
I am more relaxed now than last week, and if the DOW stays above 13500 I will not be cashing up my worst performing NZX shares just yet.

My Portfolio at Present
AMP (topped up), BRY (singapore shares on negative watch), DFH (bought mid Oct2007), DPC (sold down, may now accumulate (on positive watch)), FBU, FPH (bought end July 2007), GPG (sold down, on negative watch), NZO (topped up), PRC (accumulating), RAK (accumulating)

Watching
NPX(ex share) CEN(ex share) MFT (ex share)

[Hoop]

Dow failed to breach the 14000 upper resistance and is testing the 13500 support. This is the support line that I am watching... if it falls below the 13450 /13500 area it will be bearish and signal a possiblity of a secondary correction and the next resistence level down is 12800, (-5.5%). Below 12800 is bear territory and would signal the end of Bull Market 3.

I am nervous again. The secondary correction risk has risen.

Have added FBU to negative watch. Any correction will create FBU to break it's very long upward trendline.

[AMR]

FBU has to fall a long way to break the uptrend line - Phadreus has done a post over on the NZX forum. The resistance in the 1110s-1120s held up nicely today. If that had broken, FBU would have made a scary looking 6 month double top pattern.

[Hoop]

FBU has to fall a long way to break the uptrend line - Phadreus has done a post over on the NZX forum. The resistance in the 1110s-1120s held up nicely today. If that had broken, FBU would have made a scary looking 6 month double top pattern.

A little confused about your statement XX. As I see it the uptrend line on Phaedrus chart will be broken at $11.15 or thereabouts as well as that resistance.

If one uses a linear graph the uptrend line break is around the $10 mark, is this what you are referring to?

Agreed FBU held up nicely today and the market in general closed stronger to be just down, which is positive news for FBU.