If National wins ...

[iceman]

Well yes, it was a sombre mood in the local Labour HQ as the results came in. There were quite a few there though, quite a good team got together in the end. Being keen on stats, I have charted the last four elections for overall votes, and it's very interesting.

About 90% of the party votes are always split up between National, Labour, Greens and NZFirst. So only one in ten voters selects a minority party on average. If there are too many of them, as we had last night, none of them get over 5%.

I have read through all the comments briefly, and can't agree with many of them. I'm pleased most noted that David Cunliffe carried himself well in defeat. He has really matured during this campaign.

Craic, send me a PM and I'll pay out on the bet pronto, you won fair and square.

Hoop, thanks for the analysis. I'm not going to get much back from iPredict, but I'll be pushing for someone else to be closing off their reports next election. The cheeky sods got away with it this year.

As to the result, I don't think it was anything to do with policies. I say this because National is leaving very poor stats in their wake in many cases, and Labour's policies would undoubtedly have helped out most NZers. Some of you breathed a sigh of relief about a CGT not coming through. Newsflash, we'll get one sooner or later, the country will have to get in more tax revenue to keep offering services to a rising and aging population.

No, what we are seeing here is not the result of National doing such a great job of governing the country. It is more likely that the use of Crosby-Textor as campaign managers over the last ten years, has moved public perception their way, and this process is still happening. Elections are won on perception, and National is using one of the world's leading neo-liberal campaign teams to get their message out.

With an increasing mandate, and being careful to not make any noises about what they're up to next, I'm fearful of what will be around the corner for lower and middle NZ. Trickle down? I don't think so. Trickle up, more likely.

Yes I am sure it would have been a sombre night at your local Labour HQ. Same as my electorate where Maryan Street finally got kicked out of parliament. Good riddance
It is noticable that nowhere in your post do you accept that Labour lost because Labour completely lost touch with center N Z. It is what this all boils down to and Labour can not rebuild its broken organisation without first accepting that fact. The longer it takes the more time Key will have to cement his grip in the middle ground with his new Government which I expect to be very centrist with an eye on winning 2017

[fungus pudding]

Sorry BP, I can't leave this without a reply. You obviously haven't looked at Labour policies, they are not hard left at all. David Shearer didn't warm up to the cameras enough, he would have been mincemeat in the final debates with John Key. Nicky Hager's book put a serious dent in public perception of National by the public, but as we saw, only for a couple of weeks. Astoundingly, the Crosby-Textor instructions for John Key and others, worked. The public moved on - believed John Key - even though he was severely shaken at first. When he came out in front of the cameras the day after the book release, that was not the look of an innocent person. He must have known all about what was going on, it was written on his face.

But Crosby-Textor and others would have reminded him, that just like it took years to poison the perception of NZers towards Labour and the Greens using right-wing bloggers and Mr Nice Guy tactics, it would also take years to change them back towards Labour, so he just had to bluff his way through.

That's something that David Cunliffe can't say, but I'll say it. If the NZ public are collectively too facile to look behind propaganda to find the real story, then the best political strategists will win elections every time. No matter how dubious their message is. How Labour is going to get the cash together to pay for better strategists, better campaign ads, should consume a lot of their thinking for the next three years. They already have better policies, and a more real team. One that looks like NZ.

eZ: Far be it from me to try and rationalise anything with you - I've given up, your mind is locked into seeing Labour as always right and National as wrong, their followers as mean etc - but just one point, try and get over your paranoia with some advertising agency or whatever they are. All firms and organisations of any standing use them, get training from them, and get advice on how to handle anything controversial that arises. Your beloved Labour party will have media trainers and PR people. But for their opponents to worry about who or what they are is ridiculous. Do you stop to consider who Watties ad. agency is before you buy Baked Beans? I'm quite sure your ramblings on this point do not impress anybody.

[craic]

I went out to a concert and a meal with my wife and six of our friends, all staunch Labour supporters today. Two stunned me by confessing that they had voted for Garth McVicar because he is known here and has a reputation. One other changed her vote away from Labour because, as a Maori, she could not live with the idea of Hone Harawira and Dot Com etc. added to a Labour Government. The other three didn't comment but just enjoyed the outing.I have no doubt that Dotcom and his associates have had a significantly detrimental effect on the outcome of this election. Possibly the best result will be the hurried exit of KDC from the land.

[slimwin]

Your in denial EZ. If the labour party leadership does the same then it will be a fourth term national govt. Take that from an ex labour voter who can't see a reason to turn back. And thats after looking at the policies. The left lost this election by convincing themselves they are in touch with the people. Clearly they are not. For example, the unions have too much say in the party. Maybe 95% of my work is in a union but very few vote labour. They're only in the union for the collective bargaining yet the unions steer party policy like they have the people behind them.

[elZorro]

eZ: Far be it from me to try and rationalise anything with you - I've given up, your mind is locked into seeing Labour as always right and National as wrong, their followers as mean etc - but just one point, try and get over your paranoia with some advertising agency or whatever they are. All firms and organisations of any standing use them, get training from them, and get advice on how to handle anything controversial that arises. Your beloved Labour party will have media trainers and PR people. But for their opponents to worry about who or what they are is ridiculous. Do you stop to consider who Watties ad. agency is before you buy Baked Beans? I'm quite sure your ramblings on this point do not impress anybody.

Who said I was rambling? If you're so sure I'm wrong, do your own research on Crosby-Textor. I know Nicky Hager did, so just read The Hollow Men for a start. Here's their webpage on Campaigns, where they state they know all about social media and other techniques. They work with the Liberal Party in Aussie. They are thought to be behind the idea of pretending that boat refugees being rescued by a ship offshore of Australia had been thrown overboard by their families, in a bid to ensure asylum. In fact their boat had sunk. The Liberal Party used this nonsense to help win an election.

[Sgt Pepper]

Go easy on eZ. He's on sick leave today.

Fp

I have spent the day sulking and by tomorrow should have finished eating all my humble pie!
Regards
SP

[Major von Tempsky]

"Nicky Hager's book put a serious dent in public perception of National by the public, but as we saw, only for a couple of weeks".

There's a deliciously enjoyable picture on the Internet of Nicky Hager's book "Dirty Politics" at a desperate book sale where DPs is reduced from $34.50 to $17.50.
Nice. He only sold a few thou....

If there is a next book he'll be right into laws of diminishing returns and it will be even more of a disaster than DPs. Actually it turned out to benefit National and maybe we should implore "Dear Nicky, please write us another one just before the 2017 election". The great mass of the public, well over 80% regarded it as as a nasty left wing smear campaign that was probably nearly all untrue and if any of it was true it was greatly exaggerated. Funnily enough I never actually met anyone at the tennis club, or the various societies and associations I belong to who had actually read the thing!
R.I.P. Nicky Hager. Luckily for him he has a great deal of inherited wealth so he doesn't have to work so he doesn't. Rosemary (Mcleod is it? the columnist in the Press etc) disputed that he was referred to as a journalist at all because none of her profession had ever seen or heard of him working as a journalist. As for the "investigative" it merely consisted of him receiving some stolen emails from DotCom and publishing them!

A modest suggestion to you EZ, it is way way past time that the Labour Party updated its name. The number of labouring jobs is minuscule, there are more farm labourers than any other type and they vote National anyway! Something modern and European and progressive like the Social Democrats and you could cut the union link at the same time as only a small minority belong to unionists and unions are regarded as something quaint and really antiquated from Charles Dickens times. A painless, costless move like that would do wonders for yor image and credibility!

[craic]

As a pensioner, I have a Community services card and on thursday last paid $15 for my doctors visit. My various pills and potions are free because my wife and I have gone past a certain limit and we no longer pay for the rest of the year. We don't need any further freebies. elZorro, I have posted pm to you.

[nextbigthing]

Labour supporters, take this on board

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...ip-on-the-line

[fungus pudding]

Your in denial EZ. If the labour party leadership does the same then it will be a fourth term national govt. Take that from an ex labour voter who can't see a reason to turn back. And thats after looking at the policies. The left lost this election by convincing themselves they are in touch with the people. Clearly they are not. For example, the unions have too much say in the party. Maybe 95% of my work is in a union but very few vote labour. They're only in the union for the collective bargaining yet the unions steer party policy like they have the people behind them.

I have no doubt that National will be a four term govt. This was the tricky one for them, but the opposition is destroyed. It will take a term or two for Greens - Labour to sort themselves out. Winston will be in his zimmer frame. The only thing likely to arise and it's a big maybe, is some sort of Conservative party if they can drop some of their policies. Most likely they would not join Greens - Labour.
I really think Labour is in it's dying days - it needs to drop its Union connections and rebrand itself. The image it portrays is from a bygone era. Cunliffe made his biggest mistake when he declared 'The Labour I lead will be a RED Labour'.