SUM - Summerset Group

[Beagle]

Roger note I said despite their failings, personally I've pushed the company regarding the Dementia unit issue and fixed fees and its up to other shareholders to do the same if they feel strongly enough about it ( The AGM isn't far off so a good chance for others to speak up)

Fair enough mate. For me it sheets back to a valuation issue. Best of breed is always worth a PE premium and then when looking at other competitors you need to discount the PE back further again for any specific identifiable issues and concerns. No question there's tailwinds in this sector and no question in my mind the RYM and SUM's PE multiple's and current SP fully encapsulate the net present value of those tailwinds.
MET I am not so sure...there could be more upside there, PE is far cheaper and development margin most recently reported was 21%. Lets see where 2014 EPS ends up but I see much better upside elsewhere.

[MAC]

It certainly provides for a prospective picture, statistics coming into play perhaps with four villages coming to fruition close together, but that’s the nature of the lumps and bumps. Still a good result though even with that in mind I'd say.

SUM need to provide a guidance update now on the forward build rate IMO, they are on track for 300 at FY15, perhaps even a little ahead on that result, but what is the intention for FY16 and beyond now they seem to be leaning toward a future as cyclical dividend paying stock, that’s what I would like to know.

Levelling growth and a comfy life for directors, or, another step up in plan and a maintaining some zip ?

Well done holders for now either way.

Attachment 6651

[Hoop]

Might take a technical breather around the 3.00 - 3.01 with possible increased profit takers at this level...due to
1...Resistance Area
2...Trading Target price*** is met......2.80 + [2.80 (breakout) - 2.60 (low)] = $3.00

*** Mass buy signals triggered on 12th December with the $2.80 bull/bear line breakout

[winner69]

Looking at Yahoo! sp stats, I don't think that the SUM sp has been under $1.42 since the first 3 months or so after its listing at the end of 2011. Does that mean that this is your first additional purchase since then? If so, it seems like a big vote of confidence from yourself on the back of the latest metrics.

Think percy's sums includes those he has sold along the way for a profit. Like total of what he paid over the years less the proceeds of sales divided by current number of shares. Snoopy does calcs like this as well

so not really an average price as you and I would calculate

On the way that percy does this calculation I once owned a stock where average price was -$1.25 (minus, they paid me to take them) but current price was $3.50 odd

[winner69]

I think I'll take that as confirmation you're now long this stock. Average brokers 2015 forecast according to Reuters is about 14.5 cps...but how they can guess that when the company itself refuses to issue a forecast, is presently talking down the outlook and they haven't even released 2014 EPS is anyone's guess. 13.9% growth in annual sales is hardly stellar.

Bugger bugger made a typo.

Its $45m NPAT for FY14 (in the excitement getting the years mixed up)

Haven't tried to review FY15 yet

[percy]

Looking at Yahoo! sp stats, I don't think that the SUM sp has been under $1.42 since the first 3 months or so after its listing at the end of 2011. Does that mean that this is your first additional purchase since then? If so, it seems like a big vote of confidence from yourself on the back of the latest metrics.

Yes you have it right.I have been waiting to buy back in.Although I agree with Hoop's post that buy signals appeared in December,I prefer to wait for the share price to move up through both the 50 and 200 day EMA moving averages.It is just what suits me.
Brought a parcel and doubled up .Then when the market over shot what I thought was reasonable value, I sold down,then I sold more,and then I sold even more. Turned a large holding into a very small holding.Today is the first time I have paid over $1.78 for SUM shares.
On my own maths our RYM owe us approx -$25 per share..
Sorry if I caused confusion.!

[Beagle]

Bugger bugger made a typo.

Its $45m NPAT for FY14 (in the excitement getting the years mixed up)

Haven't tried to review FY15 yet

You did notice the big jump in first half expenses and commentary that higher level's of common area buildings were to be completed first didn't you mate ? We have annual sales up 13.9% for the year and expenses up quite materially on last year going by the first half result...anyone's guess what tax will be but common sense suggests it can't be negligible like it was last year forever. You talking underlying earnings or going for the creative IFRS stuff ? (I always work with underlying earnings with these companies).

[ratkin]

Why are you trying so hard to be negative? It isnt healthy, positive people live longer. Your time would be better spent finding good news stories, rather than dwelling on the bad, its all rather pointless.

[Beagle]

Some of us like to try and get an accurate gauge on underlying EPS, you know, its a very useful means of valuing stocks. And on the subject of some criticism earlier today from another person. If its okay for analysts to re-evaluate their forward earnings estimate after a sales announcement, (e.g. Craig's lowered their valuation on Kathmandu from $4 to $2.50 in December 2014 on downwards sales information from the company), then you'd expect intelligent investors to do the same, hence why I have upgraded my underlying EPS from 20% negative to flat / very mildly positive for the 2014 year.
If all anyone did on here was pump each others tyres in every thread it wouldn't be a very interesting place would it !!

[davflaws]

I have upgraded my underlying EPS from 20% negative to flat / very mildly positive for the 2014 year.
If all anyone did on here was pump each others tyres in every thread it wouldn't be a very interesting place would it !!

It seems to me from following this thread for the last year, that you have a strongly negative view of the Company. I get that you were outraged by what you saw as insider trading and unethical behavior from Norah and also by the Board's failure to deal with it in the way you believed they should. Fair enough.

What I can't gauge though, is how much that has coloured your subsequent judgement. Before the latest results were published, I think you were predicting disaster, and claiming that sales would be down. As far as I can understand, the results were good, but you still seem to be unhappy with their performance. How much do you think your judgement of SUM's performance has been affected by the governance/ insider trading shenanigans? 5%?, 10%? 50%?