CRP - Will it Receive EPA Approval?

[BFG]

Vote now and give us your views!

I'm 70/30 (negative/positive) as the EPA pre-conceived notions, staff report, shrinking of permit area , Greeny kicking and screaming and Chris Castles history are throwing up big red flags to me. Don't get me wring I'd love to see CRP succeed and give them all the two finger salute, but if it comes down to it, I'm not too positive!

[MAC]

I’m going to go give it 90/10 in favour at this stage in proceedings, there’s always a chance of a random outcome when decisions come down to just a handful of individuals though.

There are no legal impediments, no show stoppers that have arisen out of the hearing, no reason that the consent should be either outright awarded nor outright rejected. And, there has been a lot of effort put into documenting, discussing and consulting on specific conditions. The Crown in their submission also pretty much suggested that the process focus on conditions.

There are plenty of economic benefits, both environmental effects and environmental benefits, supportive politics with National having been returned, and an EPA who will not want to botch this one up like they did TTR, heads might otherwise roll.

As for financial impacts from conditions, it is not the intention or the mandate of the EPA to penalise, that's not their job, and CRP have proposed and budgeted for a lot of conditions already.

My feel is that the DMC will require CRP to fund the adaptive management plan environmental monitoring, no surprise with that one and CRP would have allowed for that.

The DMC may though also require CRP to pay for research costs for identifying an alternate BPA (Benthic Protection Area), not sure if CRP have allowed costs for that one, but it would be a one off cost and not a big one within a big picture.

[Tomtom]

Agreed. Think it'll be a "Yes, but..." Will the economics work as well in the real world as they do on paper however?

[BFG]

Thanks guys, keep the votes and ideas rolling! :D

[easy money]

Some more information has come out today....Crp have put a lot of work into addressing most concerns..can't see why a consent should not be issued..(with conditions attached).

[MAC]

Some more information has come out today....Crp have put a lot of work into addressing most concerns..can't see why a consent should not be issued..(with conditions attached).

That's certainly where the focus seems to be, all just environmental monitoring conditions, and nothing substantial in addition to what Chatham Rock proposed going into the process having had a quick read.

It's pleasing actually that the science folk can come together to agree on most matters, there may be a couple of areas where they can't agree, probably find out more about those at the hearing closure on the 19th.

All looks very prospective for now though, final decision in four weeks, after three years hard work.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1411/S00475/chatham-rock-phosphate-issues-draft-conditions.htm

[croesus]

very true unfortunately many of these conditions will need to be fulfilled prior to any mining.

Why unfortunately...?
None of them are particularly onerous to CRP...

I would consider it fortunate if we got the go ahead on the basis of meeting those conditions.

Why the need for negativism ??

[croesus]

Thanks. I appreciate your P.M

A Yes and a No.

To your questions.

Ive always been a Half glass full person,

This Arab Spring in now a Winter of discontent....

Once we have the go forward ... lets see where it goes.

Cheers

[BFG]

11 more working days max until we get a decision... :)

[MAC]

So, five working days now to decision day, if they don’t surprise a day or two early, perhaps if the DMC were going to delay yet again they may have done so by now, but who knows really, it would certainly be damned tortuous on the good folk at CRP to delay again this close.

The more time the better though in getting the wording of the proposed 60 environmental conditions right, those of us who have worked under resource consents with hundreds of conditions know very well how some people can get hung up on semantics and word definitions even years later.

Good luck to all investors whether you may jump in before or after on the NZAX.

I reckon the market value of CRP won’t really be settled until the AIM IPO book build is all worked out and complete, so there may be time between now and then, upwards of NZ$1.20 on the AIM IMO.

[Balance]

The delays to date mean REJECTION if history is any guide.

[MAC]

The delays to date mean REJECTION if history is any guide.

Well actually there is no history Balance is there, it is only the second marine consent process round.

In my exp of working on or under resource consents though since the early 90's, no, the more consultation and fine tuning, the more acceptable and tailored are the outcomes.

But it’s almost moot as we will all know in five days, or well less.

[Balance]

Well actually there is no history Balance is there, it is only the second marine consent process round.

In my exp of working on or under resource consents though since the early 90's, no, the more consultation and fine tuning, the more acceptable and tailored are the outcomes.

But it’s almost moot as we will all know in five days, or well less.

History of government regulatory authorities deliberating and making decisions - approvals are usually fast. Delays mean they are building up their case to reject.

[MAC]

Well we can disagree, that’s fine.

I attended and sat through the last day of the hearing and certainly the focus was on conditions with what seemed a consolatory approach, all good at that time.

In adjourning the hearing the DMC asked if CRP were willing to work over the coming weeks with the EPA staff on conditions, the answer was, well yes.

And, there is strategically room for compromise, CRP have a mining permit for 15 years and analysts have valued CRP on a 15 year production life. Yet CRP has applied for a 35 year production marine consent.

One of the last questions asked by the DMC, was if CRP would accept a marine consent for the immediate mining permit only. CRP council replied that it would not be their preferred solution but they would accept, but there would need to be a buffer zone also for sediment travelling outside of the permit area.

My feel is that is where it will land, the EPA staff and CRP will work out the wording for the 60 conditions, and a marine consent will be awarded for 15 years production.

[MAC]

We don't have to disagree Snapiti,

We will have to wait and see though, although I do think if the DMC were going to decline that is what they would do, the EPA if anything have shown they can do that. And, the process is not meant to penalise it’s meant to determine minimum environmental conditions.

The test will come shortly after the marine consent announcement.

It is actually Boskalis that will operationally have to comply with the marine consent conditions, they will invest circa $300M in ship borne equipment under an operational contract negotiated with CRP, the marine consent conditions would become appendix H or something like that.

In the 2013 capital raising doc, CRP suggested the operational fee would be about €70/t of phosphate landed at port. If the announcement has a higher operational fee than that we will all know that the marine consent will either be more costly than anticipated, or, it’s just escalation after two years.

The Boskalis FID announcement should be a few days or weeks after the marine consent announcement.

There will be some non-operational environmental costs directly to CRP, like an environmental bond, administrative costs for the adaptive management plan and perhaps administrative costs for identifying an alternate BPA, but these costs are relatively more defined IMO and CRP will have budgeted for those already.

[MAC]

So, five working days now to decision day, if they don’t surprise a day or two early, perhaps if the DMC were going to delay yet again they may have done so by now, but who knows really, it would certainly be damned tortuous on the good folk at CRP to delay again this close.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/207549.pdf

Ah well, at least they are only one day delayed this time, getting closer in ever smaller delays :)

[croesus]

This is like Tantric Sex.... almost there, but no happy ending yet.

[robbo24]

interesting......... both mac and I were at the final day of the hearing.....
As Mac has said there was a distinct attitude from the DMC of what do we need to do to make this happen....
A further delay is a positive as if it was a straight no me thinks you would of had an answer by now.
Still think it will be a yes but the condition will not be viable for CRP.

I am interested to know what gave you this impression snapiti? :D