PEB Sales HY15

[BFG]

righto people, let's go for number of tests sold and paid for for HY15!

[winner69]

Do a Poll mate with some ranges ...easier for the likes of me

[winner69]

Do a Poll mate with some ranges ...easier for the likes of me

Well done ...

[BFG]

Do a Poll mate with some ranges ...easier for the likes of me

You're way too quick for me! Poll is up :p

[winner69]

How you going to calculate the PAID bit

Maybe 'RECOGNISED IN REVENUES' is better ...ie the Revenues line on the Income Statement

The equivalent to $145,195 for FY14, ie 'CxBladder Sales'

[twotic]

What happened last time again? I forget. Oh and are we inferring test numbers sold by dividing recognised revenues by $550? Cheers in advance - too lazy/busy to check all this for myself.

[BFG]

A divisor of revenue minus Callaghan grant etc by 550 will do

[MAC]

Sure, why not Moosie, I’ll have a go, based on what Mr Market thinks,

$0.9M less grants = around $0.6M, at $550 per test = around 1,000, thus > 500 tests

My personal range is on record already as 1,000 to 5,000 tests, most probably at the lower end, but would like to be pleasantly surprised by a wee bit of LUG take up whilst we all await the more important big agreements next year.


Now there is coverage on Pacific Edge in the public domain, the market will be expecting what the insto’s and the analysts have in their spreadsheets, just as for any other stock;

Forbar FY15: $2.8M
Edison FY15: $2.32

There is a third analyst outlier at FY15 $3.82, but putting that one aside.

The expectation thus becomes a smudge under half the average of the two analysts full year estimates in allowing for the second half revenues probably being higher than the first, thus,

HY15 market anticipation = (2.8 + 2.32)/2 = $1.28 adjusted ---> = $0.9M

No, the SP won’t move on the revenues release, whether it comes in at $0.5 or $1.5M, no one will give a rats aside from the particularly fickle, and there has been an enormous flush out of the fickle over the last six months, they are all sitting on the sidelines, good riddance too.

It’s the commentary that may move the SP upward toward valuation, simply due to affirmation of the five year goal, progress against the commercialisation plan, and the outlook for FY15.

[winner69]

So you can have a bob each way and select as many as you like

[klid]

LOL, all your ranges are super low dude! You did that on purpose.

[couta1]

That bottom option looks attractive, the one without the numbers.

[twotic]

LOL, all your ranges are super low dude! You did that on purpose.
It's also a kinda odd scale (first option's range is 100 tests, second 150, third 100, forth 150 etc)

Pretty clear that Moosie chose it based on his own estimation.

None the less always fun to find out who is right and who is wrong! Hopefully the 500+ people are correct!

[BFG]

Even when trying to be unbiased you are still biased towards your bias.

Disc - I R BIASED

[nextbigthing]

Oh BFG you're such a Moose. You forgot to mention these numbers are millions of paid tests.
NBT

[pierre]

No point in me entering this competition. Looking at the voting results so far, Paper Tiger has it completely sewn up and is a dead cert to be backing the right horse.

[BFG]

PT like a hedge fund manager, buying up everything in sight.

Looks like the bulls carry the day. Can't wait to see those results tomorrow morning.

Night all!

[BFG]

$370,000 cash receipts / $550 per test = 672 paid tests.

The bulls carry the day.

PT wins greatest Calvinball player :D

[Harvey Specter]

Edit: I have just notice I was looking at the section which included interco revenues (didn't scroll down enough) so ignore this bit. Paper Tiger has the correct numbers below. [I work it out as $717k in sales. I assume there are to large organisation so you dont have to worry about bad debts even though only half is received in cash.

So 1,303 tests. ]

Hopefully they will continue to do that graph each period showing number of tests (with the same huge growth). They are still targeting $100m (now confirmed to be NZD, not USD) in 5 years (now confirmed to be full years trading) which must be this year (Started trading sept last year? so 1 April was the start of the first full year). No wiggle room left in that target. Lets hope they don't have to back track on it.

[Snow Leopard]

The problem is that the company is absolutely avoiding providing numbers so we can only make educated guesses, read on.

USA Lab: NZ$460K is approx 600 tests (@US$650 & 1.18 US$/NZ$)
NZ Lab: NZ$71K is approx 200 tests (@NZ$350)

So 800 tests.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

So a market cap of $277 million on customer sales of $531,000. Hmmm.

But really worth twice that

[Snow Leopard]

Continuing the guess work based on the numbers in the HY but I think break even for PEB (assuming they achieve US$650 a test average sales price and costs remain static and we assume a US/NZ Xrate of 1.2) is currently

NZ$19M or 24,400 tests (per annum).

However the worry is do they actually have enough cash to see them to there.

So as one scenario if revenue for the next three halves is $1M5, $3M & $6M and they are then at or above that $19M pa for FY17 they survive on their grant money.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

that's a very slow growth trajectory PT.

300% increase YoY - yeah right.

The elephant in the accounts is if they start paying taxes on US profits despite still being in loss in NZ.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Gee PT, thats several tens of thousands.:)

But all paid for at a good price.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[MAC]

So Moosie,

May I conclude from your poll that, 18 people got it wrong, 13 people got it right, and well that 7 clearly just don’t want to hear from you on the matter.
Overall though the forum, or at least those whom had a go, seemed to have failed in their investment outlook.

The question for all though, is it a case of sentiment biasing what should be a researched answer to a fundamental question, or is it a case of folk just generally, consciously or otherwise, conservatively underestimating ?

Gawd, it must be a Sunday afternoon, I’m off to mow the lawns.

[BFG]

I think I'd admire those 7 people the most for telling me to shutup :D

I think the thing to think about with your second point is that it takes all kinds to make a market and that sentiment plays a major part, along with research, greed, fear and risk acceptance.

Anyways, while I and others were very underwhelmed with numbers, the Market is always correct and as it is forward looking, it must be tracking to what it expects. We shall see. I've had my say on the thread so I'll leave you guys to it.

Have a good weekend. ;)

[BFG]

how did paprertiger get to vote multiple times and I can only vote once:(:(:mad ;:

Multiple votes allowed for everyone, kind of like the Soviet voting system ;)

[Snow Leopard]

how did paprertiger get to vote multiple times and I can only vote once:(:(:mad ;:

Well snippy I only voted once but I voted for everything as I noticed it was a multiple choice poll.

Best Wishes
papreytiber

[Casino]

Well snippy I only voted once but I voted for everything as I noticed it was a multiple choice poll.

Best Wishes
papreytiber

Was there anyone that inspired you to have every side of every issue?

[Harvey Specter]

Multiple votes allowed for everyone, kind of like the Soviet voting system ;)
Different. There you can vote as many times as you like ... As long as it is for the ruling party.

If you accidentally vote for a different party, they will help you out and count it for the ruling party.