Drought - Winners and Losers

[noodles]

It may not feel like it after a day of rain in Auckland, but some parts of the country are starting to get a bit dryer than normal for this time of year.
http://www.niwa.co.nz/news/niwas-hotspot-watch-1

So which stocks are the winners and losers?

Losers:
PGW - I remember they had a weak year after the last major drought

Winners:
CVT - A dry and hot summer is great for producing Manuka Honey.

Not Sure:
SCL, SEK, FSF, ATM, ALF, TUR

[jonu]

It may not feel like it after a day of rain in Auckland, but some parts of the country are starting to get a bit dryer than normal for this time of year.
http://www.niwa.co.nz/news/niwas-hotspot-watch-1

So which stocks are the winners and losers?

Losers:
PGW - I remember they had a weak year after the last major drought

Winners:
CVT - A dry and hot summer is great for producing Manuka Honey.

Not Sure:
SCL, SEK, FSF, ATM, ALF, TUR

Most of CVT's manuka honey comes from Northland where there has been a cold windy spring. The manuka crop will be down on last year.

[winner69]

Just Water should do well

[nextbigthing]

Just Water should do well

Come on Winner, what about the obvious supply issues. DYOR!

[nextbigthing]

blow the flowers off before the bee's do their thing.

Wow...... :D

[Minerbarejet]

Wow...... :D
Id say Birmanboy and Vaygor1 are probably preparing suitable rejoinders.:):)

[Beagle]

Nice timing for that steady rain. As observed in that image it was starting to get very dry in Northland again. Listening to the weather forecast they're talking about a fairly wet week coming up too.

Too early to call a drought I reckon. Image should look a lot better in a weeks time.

[percy]

Well the last drought was widespread.
Usually it is only the west coast or the east coast that suffers,so stock is sold to the other side of the island.
Or from one island to the other.
Good for both PGW and HNZ.PGW does the sales.HNZ supply livestock finance.
PGW also does well as more farmers invest in irrigators.

[BIRMANBOY]

Enabling this B to do its "thing" would entail the wholesale removal of cobwebs and rust as opposed to 'blowing the flowers off". However, I do remember fondly, flitting around summer meadows hoping for pollination opportunities. Sigh.
Id say Birmanboy and Vaygor1 are probably preparing suitable rejoinders.:):)

[iceman]

My sentiment exactly. I think this year is a bit unusual in that we have the rain/dry spread unusually over the country.I don't think we are seeing any serious "across the country" situation with rain or dry weather so at this stage I tend to agree with Percy that the effects on the companies affected will be minimal. I think the FX changes in 2015 have the potential to have much more effect than rain or sun.


Well the last drought was widespread.
Usually it is only the west coast or the east coast that suffers,so stock is sold to the other side of the island.
Or from one island to the other.
Good for both PGW and HNZ.PGW does the sales.HNZ supply livestock finance.
PGW also does well as more farmers invest in irrigators.

[BFG]

Any theories on ALF?

[Jantar]

Allow me to use this Drought thread for my introductory post. I am only a small time investor with just 6 companies in my (very small) portfolio, but I am knowledgeable in matters of climate.

We are presently in a mild El-Nino pattern, and both of the Oceanic Pacific decadal indices have moved towards the positive side. This means more westerly conditions for New Zealand, resulting in drought in the east, but possibly wetter in the west.

This is good news for Taranki Dairy farmers, but not good for those in Canterbury or Hawkes Bay. Eastern fruit and wine growers will be happy, but Central Otago cherry growers probably won't be.

Generators with wind farms are likely to see increased production, and South Island hydro generators should carry good storage into next winter. North Island hydro generators are not likely to fare as well. One catch for the energy companies will be timing. High winds tend to preceed high rainfall in the west, and the trick for hydro generators will be to time their water releases to not co-incide with high winds or they could negatively influence the wholesale electricity price.

On raw data I see CEN, MELCA, TPW and NWF doing well from this pattern, GNE being neutral and MRP possibly struggling. How they manage their hedge postion could affect their outcomes.

[Vaygor1]

Any theories on ALF?

Yep. Bobby Calve numbers (their main business now) are expected to be up 17% on last year.
More than a theory. Mentioned at their Annual Shareholders Meeting 20 days ago.
Refer http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?3044-Allied-Farmers-Limited-ALF&p=521051&viewfull=1#post521051 for a bit more info.

Disc: Holding.

[Vaygor1]

Id say Birmanboy and Vaygor1 are probably preparing suitable rejoinders.:):)

Haha.. to bee or not to bee? That is the question. :cool: