Harmoney

[Cool Bear]

Hi Cool Bear. Been with Zagga for a year but never invested. How frequent do the loans come up?




11016
Not frequent. I would say 2 to 3 each month at best. Seems to be improving the last few months.

I have invested in about 20 loans with 5 paid back. 2 gone into arrears but with the low Loan to Value Ratio, we will probably get back our investments plus maybe even gain penalty interest. Doing okay so far. Returns much lower than Hm and Lending Crowd but much more secured and better communication.

[Cool Bear]

Harmoney seems to be doing massive writeoffs the last couple of weeks. Both funds I managed are way negative this month so far!

[myles]

Harmoney seems to be doing massive writeoffs the last couple of weeks.

Same - hope they are just doing a bit of a cleanup and things settle. Graph below shows charge offs on the rise since January (my loans):

11032

[Saamee]

Harmoney seems to be doing massive writeoffs the last couple of weeks. Both funds I managed are way negative this month so far!

Yes, I had a few ( too many ) as well on the 14th Feb.

You have to hope that when Retail investing ends..... That they still care enough to actually try an Collect late payments and not just write loans off just to 'get rid of them' off their books!

[leesal]

Yes, I had a few ( too many ) as well on the 14th Feb.

You have to hope that when Retail investing ends..... That they still care enough to actually try an Collect late payments and not just write loans off just to 'get rid of them' off their books!

I guess there are the fair dealing provisions under the FMA. Plus all their charges for late fees & the incentive to minimise commissions lost. But don't imagine they'd lose too much sleep over the difficult collections, probably just flick them straight to the 3rd party collections.

Anyone still investing between now and 31st March?

[Toukshare]

Anyone still investing between now and 31st March?

I may be silly but yes, I am. I won't reach the level of investment I originally wanted to (the timeframe between now and 01-APR is too short) but I'll still put in a fair whack and then, over the next few years, transfer the interest/principal collected over LC, which will provide a lower but safer return, I guess.

[RGR367]

Anyone still investing between now and 31st March?

I caught an available one this morning so yes, I'm still investing and will continue until the end of March. Squirrelmoney is almost dry but not as drought stricken like LendingCrowd.

[Bjauck]

Yes, I had a few ( too many ) as well on the 14th Feb.

You have to hope that when Retail investing ends..... That they still care enough to actually try an Collect late payments and not just write loans off just to 'get rid of them' off their books! You can hope although given the history for retail investors in NZ, who knows?

When p2p was introduced in NZ the FMA together with the IRD could have made a ruling that the taxable return for all investors from P2P was a blended return net of charge-offs and lender's fees. Instead it was up to each investor to seek an accountant's advice to determine what deductions were deductible. Straight off, p2p became less appealing for the retail investor...

[Cool Bear]

more writeoffs today!:scared: Hope it is just spring clean and not a sign of things to come!

[Soolaimon]

All I can say is that I am pleased that I have been in full withdrawal for at least a year now. 😐

[CageyB]

I guess there are the fair dealing provisions under the FMA. Plus all their charges for late fees & the incentive to minimise commissions lost. But don't imagine they'd lose too much sleep over the difficult collections, probably just flick them straight to the 3rd party collections.

Anyone still investing between now and 31st March?

I will try (might as well), but I do suspect that the tap will run dry well before then. I wouldn't be surprised if there are effectively no loans available by early March.

[Toukshare]

I will try (might as well), but I do suspect that the tap will run dry well before then. I wouldn't be surprised if there are effectively no loans available by early March.

Mmm... 6 live loans right now on HM. Looks quite busy.

[leesal]

Mmm... 6 live loans right now on HM. Looks quite busy.

In the past it was quite busy after the weekend. And with irrational behaviour not a suprise to see more more loans.

With global sharemarkets heading south, combined with the questionable quality of HM loans, maybe HM cutting loans to the retail segment could be a blessing in disguise.

[myles]

With what's likely to be coming down the line I can't think of many worse case scenarios for P2P investors (excluding things like an all out World War or failure of the service provider). People are going to be hurting, jobs will be lost, small business will struggle or fail and the potential for older borrowers to become very sick or die is real.

Perhaps the details on govt. support to be released tomorrow, and no doubt more later as things change, will help some people and some of those small businesses? Defaults will rise - don't blame the platform provider, don't blame the borrower - take a stuff happens mentality and consider those who are in a much worse situation.

Not meant to be doom and gloom, just putting it out there for others to consider.

I'm at about $60K withdrawn from original investment of $100K with $84K of principal still in, so I will likely come out well in front but am expecting to take a big hit on many loans.

Stay safe people, and please do the right thing for yourself and others, I think it's a time to spend more time thinking and caring for others and perhaps a little less on personal gain.

(and if you've got significant investments in shares - buckle up!!!)

NZ may end up being the best/safest place to be :t_up:

[joker]

Good advice myles. We're all in this together and while we as P2P investors will suffer losses, there are other members of society more unfortunate than us that risk being financially wiped out. Compassion for all please.

[leesal]

Nice words Myles. Now is not the time to be looking at portfolio performance. Will be lots of hurt out there and real suffering. Its a time for looking out for your fellow neighbour.

[Saamee]

Banks strong enough to absorb surge in bad debts
Article in Stiff this morning


https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120346545/banks-strong-enough-to-absorb-surge-in-bad-debts

[Bjauck]

Nice words Myles. Now is not the time to be looking at portfolio performance. Will be lots of hurt out there and real suffering. Its a time for looking out for your fellow neighbour. Of course there are some who rely on dividend and interest income, so yep, portfolio performance is very important for their wellbeing. Will they be getting lost income support when dividends and interest dry up?

Also landlords when their tenants can no longer afford the rents - they will somehow need to suck it up too?

[Cool Bear]

Of course there are some who rely on dividend and interest income, so yep, portfolio performance is very important for their wellbeing. Will they be getting lost income support when dividends and interest dry up?

Also landlords when their tenants can no longer afford the rents - they will somehow need to suck it up too?
Yes, a lot of us on this forum will not be getting anything from the relief package from the government. A lot of us are also seeing our lifelong savings greatly diminished by the brutal drop in the stock market.

But at least I think a lot of us here are probably in the position where we do not have to worry about where our next meal is coming from.

And for those landlords losing rent from the tenants, it is a terrible situation to be in indeed. But I think still better than their tenants worrying about not having a roof over their heads.

Stay healthy everyone! Look after you and yours. AND Wash your hands!:)

[Bjauck]

Yes, a lot of us on this forum will not be getting anything from the relief package from the government. A lot of us are also seeing our lifelong savings greatly diminished by the brutal drop in the stock market.

But at least I think a lot of us here are probably in the position where we do not have to worry about where our next meal is coming from.

And for those landlords losing rent from the tenants, it is a terrible situation to be in indeed But I think still better than their tenants worrying about not having a roof over their heads.

Stay healthy everyone! Look after you and yours. AND Wash your hands!:) Of course, as with business owners, when your income is reduced, you can always sell your equity at the current distressed prices. So yep, for some the continued monitoring of their investment portfolio of fixed interest and shareholdings remains an important consideration. There may well be some for whom their financial investments are like a hobby, with a more than ample alternative safe source of income.

[BJ1]

Just as a matter of interest, has anyone had a full repayment since 20 March, or seen any loans on the marketplace?

[Toukshare]

Just as a matter of interest, has anyone had a full repayment since 20 March, or seen any loans on the marketplace?

I snapped up a loan on 24th March and another on the 25th. But I haven't seen anything on the marketplace since 25 March.

I've had one full repayment too 2 days ago.

[Saamee]

Well that's the end of HM P2P.... Just got the offical reminder Email.

What happens to THIS thread now????

[humvee]

I snapped up a loan on 24th March and another on the 25th. But I haven't seen anything on the marketplace since 25 March.

I've had one full repayment too 2 days ago.


I havent seen anything since the 25th either.

[humvee]

Well that's the end of HM P2P.... Just got the offical reminder Email.

What happens to THIS thread now????

Now it seems like they have removed the link to view loan listings half a day early too, so im assuming that is the end of it

Harmoney is officially NOT a P2P lender any more

[Toukshare]

Now it seems like they have removed the link to view loan listings half a day early too, so im assuming that is the end of it

Harmoney is officially NOT a P2P lender any more

Yes, it's pretty sad, isn't it.
I'll be transferring the funds weekly/monthly towards LC, I think

[Bjauck]

Well that's the end of HM P2P.... Just got the offical reminder Email.

What happens to THIS thread now????

‘The challenge now will be to see how much of the retail investors’ capital invested ends up being written off.

[nztyke]

Brutal drop in the stock market? Hardly, the NZ50 is only back to approx where it was about a year ago. You ain't seen nothing yet. We have been in an asset bubble for a few years now, something was going to prick it although I must admit I didn't see this coming, I was expecting a repeat of the GFC. Some companies will come out the other end albeit with much lower valuations e.g. the industrial and office property companies, the freight companies ,the ports and the utility companies. IMO anything connected to tourism such Air New Zealand, Auckland Airport, Tourism Holdings and Sky City will not survive. Due to their national importance AIA and AIR will be nationalised but what the shareholders will be left with is anybody's guess, that's the risk of being a part owner of a business.

As far as Harmoney is concerned they will want to clear the decks asap so it will be convenient to write off or sell delinquent loans, it is already happening. They don't have to worry about their investors base anymore.

I hope I'm not being to gloomy but as a survivor of the 1972/3 oil shocks, the 1987 sharemarket crash, the 2000 tech crash and the 2008 GFC I think this one will be worse than any of them. I hope I am wrong.

Happy Days






Yes, a lot of us on this forum will not be getting anything from the relief package from the government. A lot of us are also seeing our lifelong savings greatly diminished by the brutal drop in the stock market.

But at least I think a lot of us here are probably in the position where we do not have to worry about where our next meal is coming from.

And for those landlords losing rent from the tenants, it is a terrible situation to be in indeed. But I think still better than their tenants worrying about not having a roof over their heads.

Stay healthy everyone! Look after you and yours. AND Wash your hands!:)

[Bjauck]

Brutal drop in the stock market? Hardly, the NZ50 is only back to approx where it was about a year ago. You ain't seen nothing yet. We have been in an asset bubble for a few years now, something was going to prick it although I must admit I didn't see this coming, I was expecting a repeat of the GFC. Some companies will come out the other end albeit with much lower valuations e.g. the industrial and office property companies, the freight companies ,the ports and the utility companies. IMO anything connected to tourism such Air New Zealand, Auckland Airport, Tourism Holdings and Sky City will not survive. Due to their national importance AIA and AIR will be nationalised but what the shareholders will be left with is anybody's guess, that's the risk of being a part owner of a business.

As far as Harmoney is concerned they will want to clear the decks asap so it will be convenient to write off or sell delinquent loans, it is already happening. They don't have to worry about their investors base anymore.

I hope I'm not being to gloomy but as a survivor of the 1972/3 oil shocks, the 1987 sharemarket crash, the 2000 tech crash and the 2008 GFC I think this one will be worse than any of them. I hope I am wrong.

Happy Days

The NZX50 index includes gross dividends. So capital values have fallen by about 4% in the year. Meanwhile house prices actually increased in the March quarter and by about 6% in the past year! As it is so much easier to leverage your purchase of housing, prices have been inflated based on borrowers ability to repay, from their income, capital and interest repayments. House prices still have yet to reflect the realities of the drastic Covid response measures and their effects on incomes.

Who knows what the effect of quantitative easing this time round will be. The money sloshing around will have to find a home somewhere?

[Skene]

Hi all,

Has anyone else experienced a sharp increase in charge-offs since April 1st (closure of Retail lending)?

My charge offs are now 3 times higher than March 31st.

Given the collection process timeline I don't believe this would be a reflection of Covid-19 related defaults.

[Saamee]

[QUOTE=Skene;807290]Hi all,

Has anyone else experienced a sharp increase in charge-offs since April 1st (closure of Retail lending)?


Personally....... NO..... ( Not as Yet!! )

[Soolaimon]

[QUOTE=Skene;807290]Hi all,

Has anyone else experienced a sharp increase in charge-offs since April 1st (closure of Retail lending)?


Personally....... NO..... ( Not as Yet!! )

Cant say I have seen an increase in charge offs but there are a lot in the wings if one looks closely at the arrears. Also, as I have been in full withdrawal for a year or more I have noticed a slow down in repayments since the last week of March. I guess this is to be expected.

[BJ1]

No charge off or arrears change for me yet - but my full repayments (from Harmoney refinancing ?) appear to have slowed - but that could be a function of my total lending now being down from $121k at peak to under $40k now. How quickly the world changes - I've gone from being frustrated that Harmoney were "stealing" all my loans to hoping they hurry up and "steal" the rest.

[bung5]

No charge off or arrears change for me yet - but my full repayments (from Harmoney refinancing ?) appear to have slowed - but that could be a function of my total lending now being down from $121k at peak to under $40k now. How quickly the world changes - I've gone from being frustrated that Harmoney were "stealing" all my loans to hoping they hurry up and "steal" the rest.

The refinancing has definitely slowed (my estimate is down 80%) but I expect that start creeping back up. I also haven't noticed increased in arrears yet, but expect that to increase significantly soon.
I'm wondering if Harmoney will drop interest rates and do a big refinance campaign? ( that's assuming they can still get the wholesale funding )

[permutation]

I was just thinking today, at the stroke of a pen, HARMONEY decided no more loans for the little guys!!.
Now i feel, they are just another finance company.
Under the P2P rules they say... "We cannot purchase any investor loans under the P2P licence.!!
Well Harmoney, I believe that you are no longer a P2P lender and I want my $$MONEY back!!!

[myles]

What exactly is your complaint? Harmoney have provided plenty of detail of the changes that they have made. All existing loans were taken out as P2P, that hasn't changed?

[permutation]

Well Myles, I feel it is no longer a P2P lender, I want my money back!!

[BJ1]

In my view Harmoney was never a P2P lender, but a facilitator of such activity. It found that it couldn't get the market big enough to make money from being the facilitator/administrator so found the only way to remain viable and keep control of everything was to become a lender in its own right. That it did so by in part refinancing the real P2P lenders was disappointing to me but as long as Harmoney continues to honestly and effectively manage the remaining investor loans, then I don't see how such investors have a valid complaint about matters. As previously said on this page, the Covid world change has resulted in my feelings changing but that is not Harmoney's fault.

[Toukshare]

I'm with you on this, BJ1.
It is disappointing that HM has ceased to be a P2P lender, but so far, they haven't failed to behave as what we've signed for. Of course, time will tell, and we'll be monitoring closely how they manage the investors' remaining investments, but so far, no complaints.

[CageyB]

So far I've seen minimal increases in charge-offs/arrears. I expect the worst is yet to come, but so far, so good. I haven't seen any communication from Harmoney on their hardship policies, though. I'd much rather they (for example) suspend repayments for a few months than to chuck everything to collections, both for myself and for the sake of the borrowers.

[joker]

I for one am seeing an increase in charge-offs as a percentage of interest earned. This is to be expected with no further lending as new loans mask the damage of charge-offs due to the time lapse before new loans go bad. Figures are attached of cumulative charge-offs as a percentage of gross interest earned.
11403

[Bjauck]

I for one am seeing an increase in charge-offs as a percentage of interest earned. This is to be expected with no further lending as new loans mask the damage of charge-offs due to the time lapse before new loans go bad. Figures are attached of cumulative charge-offs as a percentage of gross interest earned.
11403
Even before the Covid recession, Interest rates had been reduced for each grade, so even if the charge off rate stayed the same, with reduced income the charge-offs as a percentage of interest earned would increase.

[myles]

From John Ryder Newsletter: "Australian banks are setting up special triage units to prepare for a "tidal wave" of bad debts that could reach $45 billion in three years."

So rises in defaults (charge offs) are likely to be seen soon and in the months to come - these things often take some time to filter through.

It will be interesting to see how other platforms, who are still 'selling' P2P loans, fare and if continued investment in P2P lending is a wise choice in the short-medium term?

[BJ1]

Nothing like scaremongering to reduce credibility. Just like NZ economists predicting up to 15% falls in house prices. Where is the data to support the figures thrown out there. Not saying they may not eventuate but will it become a self fulfilling prophecy, or are the guesses just pie in the sky? We can expect problems to be quite large but quantifying them is foolhardy, if not downright sabotage. On the P2P proposal though, I think we can safely determine that Harmoney has decided to minimise it's risk: I have "suddenly" stopped losing any of my loans to full repayment / refinance.

[myles]

Not clear who you are suggesting is scaremongering - if you dig a little you'll find this is coming from AU banks. Banks need to predict what's coming so it makes sense to listen to their forecast numbers to get ahead of it? Not a discussion for this thread, just putting up the flag so people are prepared for what's likely to be coming.

I've also seen a drop in the amount of auto-withdraw funds (i.e. re-writes as you suggest), so we will most likely feel the brunt as loans appear to be shifting to wholesale at a much slower rate then they have been. :(

[Bjauck]

Nothing like scaremongering to reduce credibility. Just like NZ economists predicting up to 15% falls in house prices. Where is the data to support the figures thrown out there. Not saying they may not eventuate but will it become a self fulfilling prophecy, or are the guesses just pie in the sky? We can expect problems to be quite large but quantifying them is foolhardy, if not downright sabotage. On the P2P proposal though, I think we can safely determine that Harmoney has decided to minimise it's risk: I have "suddenly" stopped losing any of my loans to full repayment / refinance.

You cannot have people being locked down without incomes across the board being affected. It would be denial to suggest that returns from P2P will not take a big hit. The question is by how much will each p2p or quasi P2P be hit.

Westpac Bank profit has fallen by 50% already.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/415781/westpac-posts-297m-half-year-profit

[BJ1]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/415781/westpac-posts-297m-half-year-profit[/URL]

While ANZ and Westpac, and no doubt others, have reported falls in profit, the falls recorded are not actual as yet. They are the result of accounting conservatism charging the current period with provisions for expected losses in future periods. They are not an indicator of current losses.

[leesal]

I've also seen a drop in the amount of auto-withdraw funds (i.e. re-writes as you suggest), so we will most likely feel the brunt as loans appear to be shifting to wholesale at a much slower rate then they have been. :(

Loans paid by way of rewrites are way down: I had $611 "paid off loans" in month of April; compared to $2464 in March, $4294 in February. Not sure if any of the April "paid off loans" were rewritten.

In terms of loss - Hardship is the big eye-opener! Although I've only had $400 of extra defaults, and minimal arrears. Hardship has massively ramped up to over $2600 in the space of a month and a half, nearly 4% of the portfolio. I wonder what the collectability on those loans is. The interest I earned in that period was $2491 gross, before any fee's were deducted. So the performance probably going backwards.

On the other hand, the lendingcrowd and squirrel loans I hold are holding up better then the Harmoney ones at this point.

[Bjauck]

While ANZ and Westpac, and no doubt others, have reported falls in profit, the falls recorded are not actual as yet. They are the result of accounting conservatism charging the current period with provisions for expected losses in future periods. They are not an indicator of current losses.
Exactly they would not provide for a write down of assets if there were not anticipating losses as a result of the lockdowns and states of emergency around the World. This is prudent calculated preparation for the consequences and not scaremongering. It would be prudence and not scaremongering to anticipate similar reductions or greater percentage reductions in returns for investors on the various P2P platforms.

Perhaps the Reserve fund for Squirrel and the borrower securities on Lending Crowd may mean investors on those platforms will suffer a lesser percentage reduction in their returns compared to Harmoney?

[CageyB]

5.2% of my outstanding principal is currently listed as "hardship". All things considered, that's acceptable at this stage. Arrears/charge-offs are basically unchanged since the lockdown began.

[IntheRearWithTheGear]

5.2% of my outstanding principal is currently listed as "hardship". All things considered, that's acceptable at this stage. Arrears/charge-offs are basically unchanged since the lockdown began.

For me
Hardship 5.5%
Arrears 4.3%
Current 90%

Break down of loan types

25% a's
25% b's
25% c's

remainder over def's

Currently looking better than my share market portfolio which is down about 40%

Wonder if i can get any relief or helicopter money ?

[Saamee]

2020 RWT Tax Certificates now available @ HM

[Saamee]

News just out at interest.co.nz

SELLING DOWN
The founder of the country's first peer-to-peer lender Harmoney has sold down his stake by offloading over 5 million shares. Companies Office records show that Neil Roberts, who once owned virtually all (98%) of Harmoney when it started in 2014, had sold the shares to Tasman-based Michael Lookman. No price is given. Roberts, who has moved back from managing the company, now owns 28.8% of Harmoney, down from 30.8%. And while his stake has been gradually getting diluted since 2014 this appears to be the first time he's actually sold any. Lookman, who first bought into the company towards the end of last year now owns 10.9%. Other big shareholders are: Kirwood Capital Partners (13.4%), Heartland Group (13.1%) and Trade Me (11.7%). Harmoney pulled out of the P2P market (https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/103629/countrys-first-and-largest-licensed-peer-peer-lender-pulling-out-p2p-market) earlier this year.

[CageyB]

5.2% of my outstanding principal is currently listed as "hardship". All things considered, that's acceptable at this stage. Arrears/charge-offs are basically unchanged since the lockdown began.

Updated: Now 6.9% in hardship, 1.7% in arrears >30 days.

[BJ1]

Has anyone else had problems looking at the Borrower Details data on their loans? I get an error message every time. Am I overly suspicious about the recent loss of this information?

[Cool Bear]

Has anyone else had problems looking at the Borrower Details data on their loans? I get an error message every time. Am I overly suspicious about the recent loss of this information?

Just signed in to try it out. I get an error message too whenever I click on Borrower Details.

[IntheRearWithTheGear]

Updated:
Protect Waiver 0.34%
HardShip 7.65%
Arrears 4.06%
Current 87.96%

[Saamee]

Even before the Covid recession, Interest rates had been reduced for each grade, so even if the charge off rate stayed the same, with reduced income the charge-offs as a percentage of interest earned would increase.

Guess just over 1 month later and I have recently seen the Arrears coming down to single $ digits......

HM Collections Dept. must be doing a sterling job in the current financial environment.... for now!

[joker]

Guess just over 1 month later and I have recently seen the Arrears coming down to single $ digits......

HM Collections Dept. must be doing a sterling job in the current financial environment.... for now!

...more likely shifting them all to the Hardship basket.

[Saamee]

...more likely shifting them all to the Hardship basket.

What I am saying is Arrears are LESS currently - that is positive...

If it was Hardship there would be NO payments >> HIgher Arrears Outstanding!

Not what I am seeing just now :)

[Bjauck]

What I am saying is Arrears are LESS currently - that is positive...

If it was Hardship there would be NO payments >> HIgher Arrears Outstanding!

Not what I am seeing just now :) Would they actually record arrears for a loan if a hardship "repayment holiday period" had been granted?

[Saamee]

At HM I honestly cannot say what happens....

Over at LC, when a Defaulting Loan gets to 90 Days old, then it is Removed.....!

[Bjauck]

At HM I honestly cannot say what happens....

Over at LC, when a Defaulting Loan gets to 90 Days old, then it is Removed.....! I guess if a loan has been granted a hardship repayment holiday, then payments will not be due until after the hardship holiday period ends. Only then if payments are not resumed by the new due dates would it be in default. So perhaps the covid hardship payment holidays have merely postponed the day of reckoning for some loans. Also, some borrowers who may have struggled regardless of the Covid measures, may have been able to latch onto Harmoney's covid hardship response to delay their day of reckoning?

[Saamee]

I'm folllowing and liking your Logic... BJ

[joker]

What I am saying is Arrears are LESS currently - that is positive...

If it was Hardship there would be NO payments >> HIgher Arrears Outstanding!

Not what I am seeing just now :)

Hardship and Repayment Holiday loans don't show up as arrears - they are not in arrears as no payments are due until they become active again.

[IntheRearWithTheGear]

Current 87.51%
Arrears 3.71%
Hardship 8.44%
Protect Waiver 0.34%

[joker]

Current 85.3%
Arrears 3.9%
Hardship 10.8%

[Cool Bear]

Current 85.2%
Arrears 7.4%
Hardship 7.0%
P Protect 0.4%

[CageyB]

Hardship 6.9%
Arrears 2.5% (1.7% >30 days)

I suspect that some loans that would normally be in arrears have ended up in hardship, but given the meagre returns from the Harmoney collections process I'm fine with that in the hope that some of them return to current status.

[tim23]

I'm finding that the ratings meant very little a lot of my defaults are the better graded loans!

[trader_jackson]

I'm finding that the ratings meant very little a lot of my defaults are the better graded loans!

Same with me - my highest rated loan (A3) is the only one in arrears (everything else is fine for me as of writing)

[myles]

The effects of Job losses, business failures etc. from COVID-19 are not likely dependant on loan rate (i.e. likely ability to repay) - so it's quite possible that effects will be felt across the full rate range? e.g. if a well established small business that relied on an expected 'guaranteed' tourism based turnover, or someone who worked for same, received an A rated loan 6 months ago, I doubt too many would have raised an eyebrow?

At this point I'm not seeing the loses that I thought might be seen - still running a 15.06% RAR, but that may be due to my loan selection. My net-charge offs are not excessive at this stage.

How are others RAR and charge offs going?

[Toukshare]

At this point I'm not seeing the loses that I thought might be seen - still running a 15.06% RAR, but that may be due to my loan selection. My net-charge offs are not excessive at this stage.

How are others RAR and charge offs going?

RAR 10.75% (hasn't moved much in the last 6 months)
(my own XIRR is 11.56%)
244 loans
Hardship 18 (A 1, B 1, C 3, D 6, E 7, F 0), whereas my portfolio is exactly centrered on Cs, then Bs and Ds, then As and Es with very few Fs. So I notice hardships are more heavily weighed towards the riskier loans in my case.
Just one charge off since end of March. (I only have ever had 3 charge offs incidentally: 1 B, 1 C and 1 E.)

So in my case, it's the hardships: I had one before COVID-19 hit, and 17 more in the past 3 months. I don't expect much from them, not too sure about Harmoney's willingness to truly help and see them through. I suspect they'll slowly morph into charge-offs.

[myles]

This is what my breakdown looks like:



Grade
Active Loans
Hardship Loans


B
14%
12%


C
33%
29%


D
34%
42%


E
17%
17%



Pretty much across the board for me - heaviest in the D grades only a little less in the lower grades.

52 in hardship out of 723 so 7% in hardship.

[IntheRearWithTheGear]

Arrears
3570.3
3.36%
104



Current
93106.71
87.59%
2329



Hardship
9320.15
8.77%
193



Protect Waiver
305.16
0.29%
8



Total Outstanding
106302.32

2634
40.3577524677297



By dollar value. Out interest - seems to be a move toward hardship from arrears as predict by forum. Seems to be more movement in current(people paying back/refinancing ) than towards other categories, no real change to the late categories - i dont follow stats before covid (bc). July/august will be interesting as things begin to bite economy wise.

Whats everybody else doing with their money ? are we all of to squirrel ? shares - or just sitting on it ?

[Bjauck]

RAR 10.75% (hasn't moved much in the last 6 months)...

So in my case, it's the hardships: I had one before COVID-19 hit, and 17 more in the past 3 months. I don't expect much from them, not too sure about Harmoney's willingness to truly help and see them through. I suspect they'll slowly morph into charge-offs. When the hardship repayment holidays end, that could be when we see a big dip in RAR as capital charge-offs climb. So that could be in a few months time if 6 month Covid repayment holidays were granted.

[Toukshare]

Whats everybody else doing with their money ? are we all of to squirrel ? shares - or just sitting on it ?

Personally, transferring to LC as it trickles from HM. LC seems to have had a healthy amount of loans coming through.

[joker]

Personally, transferring to LC as it trickles from HM. LC seems to have had a healthy amount of loans coming through.

LC is too hard to get invested in. I have better things to do than sit around all day waiting for loans to land then having 2 minutes or less within which to invest. I've stopped investing in LC dropping from $120k to $90k over the last 6 months.

[BJ1]

If you are over 65 think about your kiwisaver potential.

[Toukshare]

LC is too hard to get invested in. I have better things to do than sit around all day waiting for loans to land then having 2 minutes or less within which to invest. I've stopped investing in LC dropping from $120k to $90k over the last 6 months.

I don't disagree but there aren't *many* other options

[RMJH]

All
All %
Live
Live %


Paid Off

6280
78.1%




Protect Waiver
7
0.1%
7
0.5%


Arrears

54
0.7%
54
4.0%


Cancelled
53
0.7%




Charged Off
183
2.3%




Current

1169
14.5%
1169
87.4%


Debt Sold
190
2.4%




Hardship

108
1.3%
108
8.1%




8044
100.0%
1338
100.0%

[myles]

Harmoney's lending model appeal largely dismissed by Court of Appeal (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122097838/harmoneys-lending-model-appeal-largely-dismissed-by-court-of-appeal) - not sure what the implications of this will be - I'm guessing nothing for lenders, perhaps something for early borrowers?

[Cool Bear]

Just had a look at the new chargeoffs that was taken against my account this month.

I had 27 made against my account in July. For the first time the charge off dates were not all July 2020. Instead 10 out of the 27 states that the charge off dates are much earlier with three in 2018 (August, Oct and Dec 2018)!

Wow, looks like Harmoney clearing its books!!

[myles]

I think they did something similar last year?

[Cool Bear]

I think they did something similar last year?
Did they? Now that you mention it... But maybe not to the same extent as this month. 10 out of 27 - almost a quarter. Resulted in this month being a negative (-$1100) after the tax deducted for me. But with the future tax refund, not that bad.

[Bjauck]

Did they? Now that you mention it... But maybe not to the same extent as this month. 10 out of 27 - almost a quarter. Resulted in this month being a negative (-$1100) after the tax deducted for me. But with the future tax refund, not that bad.
At least you can claim deduction for the capital write-offs.

No need for them to “massage” the return for small investors in order to attract more cash as they have given up on retail P2P. They are an investment vehicle for big corporates now.

With the COVID recession, surely with write-offs there will be a chance (likelihood?) of returns being negative for the next year or more?

So if you can or cannot deduct write-offs will have a material effect.

[Saamee]

Am receiving a Higher amount of Loans being Repaid in full over the last 2 weeks..... Any body else too?

Maybe doing ReFi at lower rates or 'mortgage holiday' funds otherwise paying off Higher Interest bearing loans??

[myles]

I've not seen this. My weekly auto withdrawals have been in the $700-$1600 range for quite some time, no obvious trend for me. Last four weeks went like: $1000, $700, $1400, $800.

[Wsp]

From AFR:
Non-bank lender Harmoney is set to be pitched to private equity and public equity investors as the largest digital disrupter to the banks as part of a dual-track funding round.

It is understood Harmoney has hired stockbrokers Jarden and Ord Minnett to advise on funding options, which include a private debt or equity raising, or initial public offering and sharemarket float.

[joker]

From AFR:
Non-bank lender Harmoney is set to be pitched to private equity and public equity investors as the largest digital disrupter to the banks as part of a dual-track funding round.

It is understood Harmoney has hired stockbrokers Jarden and Ord Minnett to advise on funding options, which include a private debt or equity raising, or initial public offering and sharemarket float.

Well they're certainly preparing for it...clearing the decks by writing off loans with gay abandon.

[IntheRearWithTheGear]

Current stats out of interest by dollar value.



Arrears
1845
2.03%
58


Current
85121.1
93.67%
2210


Hardship
3362.36
3.70%
76


Protect Waiver
545.48
0.60%
13



90873.94

2357

[joker]

Current stats out of interest by dollar value.



Arrears
1845
2.03%
58


Current
85121.1
93.67%
2210


Hardship
3362.36
3.70%
76


Protect Waiver
545.48
0.60%
13



90873.94

2357





Interesting figures...what is your charge-off $ as a percentage of gross interest $?

[IntheRearWithTheGear]

20k gross write offs / 93 gross interest received so far. Theoretical Rar of 11.6%. I dont claim the write offs in regards to tax.

[joker]

20k gross write offs / 93 gross interest received so far. Theoretical Rar of 11.6%. I dont claim the write offs in regards to tax.

Thanks IRWTG. That's 21.5% of gross interest lost to charge-offs.
Mine is $3,273 charge-off v $23,219 gross interest so 14.1% of gross interest lost to charge-offs. RAR 11.96%. I claim the write-offs against tax.

Personally and compared to industry expectations, this level of charge-offs is most unusual. Higher interest rates may cover some of it but now that investing in Harmoney has stopped, loans are getting older with more still to be charged-off but no fresh investments to haul the figures back (remember that generally loans last 6+ months before recording as charged-off). My RAR has been falling slowly but steadily since investing stopped and I suspect the trend will continue until all loans are repaid/charged-off.

By comparison, my Lending Crowd loan book (which I stopped all new investments in March) shows a gross interest lost to charge-offs (including collection fees) of 5.1% and a RAR of 12.32%.

[IntheRearWithTheGear]

In my case my idea was to get the money into the system and diversify it across as many loans as possible, and to keep any returns bouncing from loan to loan, as harmony loans never seemed to go fill term (people prepay etc). So i never had a large cash balance at hand.

Having money sitting around waiting for "ideal" loan - was not my plan. Near the end of harmony - they just did not have
enough inventory of loans over different ratings to invest in (available to "retail" that is).

A good majority of loans should be 1 year ++ for me - as harmony really did slow down near the end for at least a year or so - so defaults should
be flushed through the system as such.

Harmony to me was a diversification strategy as im invested in real estate, shares etc. Ie too risky put more into housing, too risky to put more into shares, so what else was there. Lending crowd were late to the party - hence i never looked at them (maybe good/maybe bad - i dunno). I had a look at squirrel, but too complex. Too me harmony had first to market advantage.

At the end of the day, i dont know what harmony will bring, but most likely it will be better than bank interest rate (obvious higher risk).

Obviously with the grey swan(not black but grey) event - everything changes, and maybe i will be lucky if i get some of my monies back - given that they (harm) appear to want to sharemarket list - it looks good.

[myles]

Interesting to see the difference due to different strategies.

My strategy was a little different again.
Gross Interest: 76.5K Net Charge-Off: 14.4K So 18.8%
However, my RAR has remained reasonably stable and is still at 15.02%.

The difference is that I believe I took a fair portion of better (more likely to repay), higher interest rate loans, so expected a higher Charge-Off rate, but with a higher return overall. So far this appears to be the case when comparing to you two? I've said before on a few occasions - you can not just compare Gross Interest vs Charge-Off between loan sets for this reason.

[IntheRearWithTheGear]

I dont think you can judge better than the harmony system - who will pay or not. (given that you got 15.02% kinda proves me wrong) - so i dont know, but in general i dont think its possible - when dealing with large amounts of loans - its purely a numbers game.

The system has more data points than they exposed to us - perhaps credit rating etc - which we dont get to see through the front end ( you could always right click and see it though) - how can you make a better decision with less information?.

As i said before the textual note information provided by the borrower is possibly not calculated in their algorithm - so perhaps that's the human advantage in prediction of which loans go belly up based on borrowers loan description notes - and maybe accounts for extra 3% - but its not game changing.

I think harmony just had a large corpus of finance company data which they sliced and diced into various loan categories each giving an expected range of returns - which they then creamed off the top for providing the service - so long as a punters took a diversified portfolio of those loans we would all end up at the same place. Kinda like how a casino wins.

the chart on this page seems to point that way ?

https://www.harmoney.co.nz/investors/marketplace-statistics

there is very little spread once you get over a certain loan number.

[myles]

when dealing with large amounts of loans - its purely a numbers game.

I think this only holds true when, to keep up to a large $ investment in loans, you have to select ALL of the loans - then you get the average.

I approached it differently, keeping to a choice of loans, the ones I believed where 'better', and increasing the amount invested in each loan. I suspect many started taking on loans that they were not happy to take on, to keep $'s invested, rather than increasing the amount in those loans they were happy to take?

I think my results show that you can indeed beat the house if you can work out how to play the system?

[Toukshare]

I think my results show that you can indeed beat the house if you can work out how to play the system?

Or rather than beating the house, you just have to beat the other investors.... a bit like the old saying "when in a group chased by a bear, you don't have to outrun the bear, just outrun the slowest runner".

If your RAR is better than the average, and your charge-offs are better than the average, then it proves you have done better than the other investors (on average).

[BJ1]

11925
Just for comparison. I topped out at $120k and been falling away rapidly since Harmoney started refinancing retail loans for themselves. Currently getting $4,000 per month cash back.

[myles]

11926

BJ1, considering where your loan spread is, I think you've done very well. I took on a bit more risk for a bit more reward, but not all that much compared to you. (100K Invested).

[joker]

11928
God knows what I did wrong but I did it spectacularly. Low risk and high charge-offs!!!

[IntheRearWithTheGear]

How many loans did you take ?

[RMJH]

11925
Just for comparison. I topped out at $120k and been falling away rapidly since Harmoney started refinancing retail loans for themselves. Currently getting $4,000 per month cash back.
Nice work! I'm at 12.75% and 18% write-offs/ gross interest. I rarely read the stories but used filters and diversified widely. Even spread of A-D for the most part but shifted to more risk near the end.

[BJ1]

One way or another most of my working life has been in financial risk analysis. I've always looked for anomalies in presented information so did read the stories on all loans. That is where the systems used by such as Harmoney leave gaps because they can't analyse the info in that way. In our Covid world I'm happy to have taken the approach I did which saw me up to 50% invested in 36 month loans which have been coming back rapidly. Those not refinanced by now are where I may end up taking more hits, but I'm glad I'm not at the high risk end, given expectations of another 100,000 or more out of work in the coming year.

[IntheRearWithTheGear]

Thought someone discovered that 60 months had more of a quicker payback ie early repayment, more churn etc, instead of going full term. Maybe the 3 year peoples are more procrastinators and have general loans bad outlook- hence borrow for as little as possible, but in general dont juggle the loan as as much. Usually when offered a loan - people have a tendency to go for as long as possible and as much as possible - maybe with outlook to refinance two years into it to a cheap rate. It would be interesting to see 3 year to 5 year early repayment stats - but dosnt matter now as harmony has gone.

[joker]

How many loans did you take ?

3885 over the last 3 years.

[Saamee]

We all know Heartland Bank for their large Investment in Harmoney.....

This week they got my NZ Bank business with this deal......

11971

[humvee]

Nice work! I'm at 12.75% and 18% . I rarely read the stories but used filters and diversified widely. Even spread of A-D for the most part but shifted to more risk near the end.

I have a different approach again I have ended up with high write offs but a fairly high RAR too

30.75% gross write-offs/ gross interest
29.44% net write-offs/ gross interest (which I think is more important figure vs what some others have quoted)

14.69% rar

5047 unique loans

My Rar has been ever so slowly climbing since I stopped making new investments. But has pretty much always been above 13.8% usually above 14%.

[joker]

I have a different approach again I have ended up with high write offs but a fairly high RAR too

30.75% gross write-offs/ gross interest
29.44% net write-offs/ gross interest (which I think is more important figure vs what some others have quoted)

14.69% rar

5047 unique loans

My Rar has been ever so slowly climbing since I stopped making new investments. But has pretty much always been above 13.8% usually above 14%.

It's quite sad that effectively good honest people (the majority) are paying very high interest rates to cover the debt write-offs of bad people (the minority). The issue is exacerbated by the manner in which Harmoney loans money based on algorithms which are open to deception and abuse while being reluctant/uninterested in chasing bad debts. No security lien adds to the problem which is what sets Lending Crowd high above Harm-Money.

[RMJH]

It's quite sad that effectively good honest people (the majority) are paying very high interest rates to cover the debt write-offs of bad people (the minority). The issue is exacerbated by the manner in which Harmoney loans money based on algorithms which are open to deception and abuse while being reluctant/uninterested in chasing bad debts. No security lien adds to the problem which is what sets Lending Crowd high above Harm-Money.
I think Harmoney originated from a good place but were up against a system which protected the status quo. The political will to support P2P and get better rates for borrowers and lenders never seemed strong unfortunately. Such a missed opportunity.

[Saamee]

Still continuing to receive Capital Repayments at a large rate currently.

Plus no new Write Offs BUT a small trickle of Bad loan repayments coming in!

That I find Encouraging and Positive....

[Cool Bear]

Still continuing to receive Capital Repayments at a large rate currently.

Plus no new Write Offs BUT a small trickle of Bad loan repayments coming in!

That I find Encouraging and Positive....
Same here.

My charged offs the last two months averaged less than $400 a month. The average for the 9 months before that was well above $2000. So, it does looks like HM had been clearing their books of bad loans earlier, was very bad in the 3 months Dec to Feb before they close to us, with February the worst month ever. Another bad month (2nd highest for me) was in July this year.

[RMJH]

Same here.

My charged offs the last two months averaged less than $400 a month. The average for the 9 months before that was well above $2000. So, it does looks like HM had been clearing their books of bad loans earlier, was very bad in the 3 months Dec to Feb before they close to us, with February the worst month ever. Another bad month (2nd highest for me) was in July this year.
Cleaning up prior to an IPO?!

[Saamee]

Cleaning up prior to an IPO?!

Still continue to see Funds being Repaid at an extremely high rate....

Borrowers must be being offered some amazing good deals to refinance at much lower interest rates?

[RMJH]

Still continue to see Funds being Repaid at an extremely high rate....

Borrowers must be being offered some amazing good deals to refinance at much lower interest rates?
Did you just get a sudden drop in RAR of about 60 points? Not sure what that's all about!

[Saamee]

Did you just get a sudden drop in RAR of about 60 points? Not sure what that's all about!

Yes sure did.

Around the same magnitude as you.

One week down, next week back up again!

[IntheRearWithTheGear]

Bit of a pants down for those that may care/follow.








Protect Waiver
345.44
0.47%
12


Hardship
1118.98
1.51%
26


Current
69977.07
94.72%
1916


Arrears
2437.15
3.30%
70


Outstanding principal
$73878.64

2024

[Saamee]

Did you just get a sudden drop in RAR of about 60 points? Not sure what that's all about!

And this Monday - A sadden 1% swing back up!!

[RMJH]

And this Monday - A sadden 1% swing back up!!
Yep, mine bounced too! Hardly fills you with confidence.

[myles]

This week coming should be the week that my initial $100,000 investment is deposited back to me with $47,675 still invested. That's with an overall investment term of 3.5 years. Considering I've had much of the Principal available to invest elsewhere for the last 6 months and ignores tax credits, that is a very significant return on investment (though it isn't in my bank account yet)!

[Saamee]

Still continuing to receive Capital Repayments at a large rate currently.

Plus no new Write Offs BUT a small trickle of Bad loan repayments coming in!

That I find Encouraging and Positive....

Big Capital Repayments over this weekend.... ( also at Squirrel too )

[myles]

Big Capital Repayments over this weekend...

Not for me? Perhaps you purchased significantly 3/5 years ago?

[Saamee]

Not for me? Perhaps you purchased significantly 3/5 years ago?

Not particularly. More in the 6 months before they shut the doors to us mere mortals!

However I did target Re-Financed loans.... and those tend to get Re-Financed again and again untill they hit that Upper Maximum limit!

[Saamee]

End of Year Tax Certificates are now available for Download in PDF format - Great!

[Cool Bear]

Before I invested in the Harmoney via companies, I tried it out with a $2000 investment in my own name. This week, the last remaining loan of that investment was paid off and that is about the end of that investment. Harmoney will probably keep it open for some time in the very very unlikely event that there are more recoveries.

[Cool Bear]

The returns were really high, Hm puts it at 14.13% which is probably right. Started with a $2000 lump sum in May 2015. By early December 2015, I had already withdrawn more than half of that.

[Saamee]

Withdrawals.... Anyone else last night ( Fri 09th July ) NOT get a Deposit made to their bank?

The Mrs and Me both failed to get a payment into our bank account.

1st time ever in about 5 years of P2P...

[Bjauck]

The returns were really high, Hm puts it at 14.13% which is probably right. Started with a $2000 lump sum in May 2015. By early December 2015, I had already withdrawn more than half of that.

I see that charge-offs comprise about 33% of your gross interest. If you are a retail individual investor, and that is not tax deductible, I guess that significantly reduces the after tax return.

[Bjauck]

Withdrawals.... Anyone else last night ( Fri 09th July ) NOT get a Deposit made to their bank?

The Mrs and Me both failed to get a payment into our bank account.

1st time ever in about 5 years of P2P... Have you had a lot of uncollected capital charged off to your account recently?

[Saamee]

Have you had a lot of uncollected capital charged off to your account recently?

Yes, just this week had some write offs....

[Saamee]

End of Year Tax Certificates are now available for Download in PDF format - Great!

[Saamee]

Do you remember \ still have a few of those 36 Month loans?

Well good news..... just over another 4 months and they will have all been repaid :)

At that time, then we will be left with just 24 Months of 5 Year loans left to mature...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/119511374/peertopeer-platform-harmoney-shuts-door-to-investors



14285

[Saamee]

All my 36 Month loans have now been Repaid....

Only a maximum of 25 months left and all Harmoney Investor loans will be repaid \ finished.

14482

[Saamee]

RWT Certificates have just been released today :)

[Saamee]

Wow!

Expected but unexpected news at the same time!!

14753

[Phil R]

Got the same. I was always hoping they would do this with the dregs of our investments at some point...the weekly returns for me were getting tiny and tedious.

[Muse]

Wow!

Expected but unexpected news at the same time!!

14753

how on earth did that pull that off saamee?

[Saamee]

how on earth did that pull that off saamee?

I rather suspect that the costs associated with continuing the retail operation for us investors was too high.

Cheaper at this point to cut and run.

I'm not complaining..... :)

[beacon]

I'm not complaining..... :)

Someone should be, when it is so hard to make sense of what the company's software is doing.

This was yesterday's screenshot

14758


This is today's screenshot
14757

See date stamps at bottom at bottom of screenshots.

Seems to be distributing only half of gross interest posted to account - as funds payable after 28% tax deduction and $88.62 being banked to customer's bank account on Monday night.

[beacon]

Screenshot from yesterday
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14760

Screenshot today

14759

Charge-off reduced Funds available, and not Principal outstanding, after Funds available on weekend banked out to customer

[beacon]

Screenshot today:


14761


Screenshot from yesterday:


14762

Funds Available OB = 1.94 per screenshot,
Add, Gross interest posted to account after weekend $13.16,
Less, Tax on this Gross at 10.5% $1.38,
Less, Weekend funds banked to customer on Monday $2.65,
= Funds available CB should be =1.94+13.16-(13.16*0.105)-2.65 = $11.06

But Funds available CB, per new screenshot = $9.62 :confused:

[Saamee]

Why 'sweat it' now when one day this week Harmoney are Paying Out ALL our deposits...?

End of this Era is just around the corner and all will be settled!!

[Saamee]

Well the end of the Harmoney era!

All outstanding Funds have now been fully repaid and loan balance at Zero!

14767

[thegreatestben]

HMY completes the closure of its legacy P2P platform
https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20231017/pdf/05w50j3n1gkslc.pdf

[Muse]

Interesting experiment. Wonder where they got the funds to close it all out at once.

How did P2P via Harmoney workout overall for you lenders? I never leant but interested in how it all went for you all

[kiwical]

Over 8 years I ended up with a lifetime rar of 13.15%
$2,230 gross interest received
$635 net charged off principle

Overall it preformed better for me than Lending Crowd currently is.
7.17% rar
$2,355.90 gross interest
$600 charged off

[777]

Deleted....

[Saamee]

I was interested to know what happens to any future funds that get repaid from borrowers to Harmoney on loans of ours that have gone in to delinquent status...

Those funds should still be our and therefore repaid to us!

They have replied stating that they will come back to me on this matter with a reply.