Predictions for 2015

[noodles]

Thought I would start a thread for company specific predictions for 2015.

I'll kick off with a no-brainer.

HNZ (Heartland Bank) make a takeover attempt for MTF (Motor Trade Finance).

[noodles]

Scales have already surprised the market by declaring a 3c interim dividend. I think that the full year dividend (interim + final) will exceed PFI dividend of 9.5c. I suspect the full year dividend will be 12.5c + imputation credits. While this might seem fanciful, a 12.5c dividend would still be less than earnings per share and I'm sure management are well aware that the share price is below listing price.

A 12.5c dividend would equate to a gross yield of 12%

We will find out in February.

[noodles]

Intueri have already made 2 acquisitions in 2014. I think they can acquire another 3 in 2015.

With the 2 new acquisitions, they should beat 2015 PFI by 10%. However, given the growth in international students and 3 additional acquisitions, I think we could beat 2015 PFI by 20%.

Intueri have good visibility of profits given the nature of student enrollments. We should know by the AGM in April how they are tracking.

[MAC]

1. NZX "small cap" growth will make a comeback in 2015 now the 12 month Russell/'MCSI small cap' with S&P500 divergence generally seems complete.

2. ATM maybe subject to takeover if the share price lingers for long at these levels.

3. CRP may merge with Oceania as a single going business concern if they are both successful in gaining respective marine consents. Both have the same major shareholders and prospective operator, Subsea, Odyssey, and Boskalis. Oceania would, if successful, bring product to the retail market much earlier than CRP.

4. Hancock's will be proved right and will take glee in having the last laugh.

5. Everyone will spontaneously behave maturely and STMOD will actually get a well deserved holiday this year.

6636

[Valuegrowth]

oil will go below $50 a barrel.
Mac will continue to put valuations on stocks ( that he owns) that are twice what the market value's them at.


Yes Oil may go below $50. Similarly, 1 NZD may equal to below 0.50 USD. We may see sharp fall in NZD although it may have parity with AUD.

There may be more volatility in stock market and commodity market in 2015.We may see some of the lowest prices for commodities such as Gold, Oil and grain before they rebound. We also may see some sell off in stocks.

[troyvdh]

Could be any number of things......some quite scary...even to good to be true stuff.
-cheap oil could get cheaper...some predict $20 a barrel (SMH)
-The Dutch are due to release there report in July....which...
-could further depress Milk powder price
-could further depress oil price..which would send those countries already effected (and those little frackers in USA) to the wall.
-lower long term oil prices will/would benefit some parts of the economy greatly globally
-in NZ...lower milk prices ...say below 3 bucks....interest rate increases remain a doubtful..even through to 2016 and beyond
-houses continue to
appreciate...
-companies on NZx with good divvies continue to appreciate....

So in my opinion its all down to the Dutch.cheers

[BFG]

BFG aka The Moose will pass 10000 posts. It's a guarantee, not a prediction.

You heard it here first.

NBT will be the NBT. Struth!

[Valuegrowth]

Could be any number of things......some quite scary...even to good to be true stuff.
-cheap oil could get cheaper...some predict $20 a barrel (SMH)
-The Dutch are due to release there report in July....which...
-could further depress Milk powder price
-could further depress oil price..which would send those countries already effected (and those little frackers in USA) to the wall.
-lower long term oil prices will/would benefit some parts of the economy greatly globally
-in NZ...lower milk prices ...say below 3 bucks....interest rate increases remain a doubtful..even through to 2016 and beyond
-houses continue to
appreciate...
-companies on NZx with good divvies continue to appreciate....

So in my opinion its all down to the Dutch.cheers

Yes I agree. Lot of things are in down trend. If NZD stay parity with AUD or it appreciate further against AUD interest rate may reduce to safeguard local export industry and tourism. We may see falling NZ interest rate environment instead of rising interest environment in 2015. On the other hand we will see rising US interest rate environment.

[Beagle]

1. AIR will make super profits due to the sustained fall in the oil price and robust demand for travel $450m before tax for 2015 and guide even higher for 2016 >$500m before tax. SP up to mid $3's by Dec.
2. HNZ could be a takeover target based on super cheap PE considering the growth rate, will be >$1.40 with or without takeover by end of 2015
3. Interest rates to stay lower for far longer than anyone reasonably predicts...absolutely no chance of any increase to the cash rate before 2017 so high dividend yielding shares will do extremely well.
4. Milk powder prices won't recover in 2015.
5. SUM will announce a very disappointing annual result in late February with EPS below 9 cps down 20% on the previous year.

[troyvdh]

...Oops sorry I forgot to mention rumour has it that 83 supertankers were heading to China last week...so I suspect they will not need anymore oil for a while.
Source ...not sure but maybe the Guardian or the Economist.....cheers

[noodles]

2. HNZ could be a takeover target based on super cheap PE considering the growth rate, will be >$1.40 with or without takeover by end of 2015

And it will be Bendigo Bank making the bid

[noodles]

I think it would be remiss of me not to make a prediction of our perennial profit downgraders...Cavalier

Due is weak Australian Sales and Currency headwinds, management will downgrade Fy15 earnings to breakeven. At the same time (and pressurized by BNZ), the company will announce a 1:1 renounceable issue at 29c to raise $20mill. Godfrey Hurst end up owning near 20% of the company.

[percy]

By year end I stop using "well positioned" and replace it with "hallelujah"as my holdings in EBO,estaronline,DPC,HNZ,PAZ[unlisted market] and PGW double or triple in price.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol.

[bunter]

1) Another 'up' year for the NZ50, 15%+
2) 5 yr bank deposit rates to remain below 6%
3) Lots of new low-quality listings...

and a longer term prediction - rising interest rates will be the thing that kills this bull market.

[Minerbarejet]

Pacific Edge should get up around 90 cents or more this year. :)

[Bobdn]

Wishful thinking on my part but here goes: with bank term deposits so low and likely to remain so for a while yet, Genesis, with a predicted dividend of 16 cents a share, should appreciate nicely this year (assuming it keeps hold of its customers!) I'd be happy with 5-10% increase but who could guess such things.

[Jantar]

NWF are likely to win their legal battle and, with accumulated tax losses and being cash rich, will be a likely target for a takeover. SP to double?

[BlackPeter]

My crystal ball is cloudy, as always. DYOR.

Nevertheless - at year end 2015 I'd expect:

1) Interest rates will stay low (and in NZ more likely to drop than stay)

2) NZX going sidewards (though expect some ups and downs during the year)

3) Oil stays below USD60 (say somewhere between USD40 and USD60)

4) Coking coal (BRL) will recover - expect SP to rise by at least factor 2 or 3 (might be more)

5) NWF - agree with Jantar: think that the legal battle will clear up and SP likely to double as well

6) Another bumpy ride for the tech stocks with mainly unpredictable outcome ... but I think that PEB might rise.

7) Not sure where OHE and WYN will end up, but expect for both good buying opportunities in the first half of the year (ESCROW period for major shareholders running out).

8) Emerging economies will benefit from cheap oil (good for funds like TEM).

A slightly belated Happy New Year to everybody on sharetrader - may the investment sun shine on all of us!

[BFG]

My predictions:

1) Interest rates will slip to 3% or lower as Wheeler and the RBNZ realise they overdid the rate rise in 2014 and that it is not NZ rates that is driving the insane real estate bubble. With the Aussies most likely reducing theirs in 2015, they will have no choice but to do so in order to stop parity being reached (or breached).

2) Concordantly, expect LVR restrictions to get harsher to slow the bubble down. US interest rates will also rise. Whether this leads to a soft or hard landing, I don't know.

3) The NZX will keep heading upwards as quality stocks achieve richer valuations as money continues to flow in with a still (even if interest rates fall) OECD leading rate.

4) More IPOs. Many more. Whether they are quality or not is up for debate, but it looks like the Joyce/Sorehead gang are gearing up to their peak effort. In addition, capital raises for listed stocks will be on the increase to take advantage of the momey boom.

5) Tech/growth stocks will have to continue to show great strength and PR skills if they want the richer valuations that keeps them afloat.

6) PEB will get CMS coverage and MAC will make me eat his hat :p

[Valuegrowth]

Further to my earlier writing:


It will be year of volatility. We will see weak stock market in Australasia in 2015 especially in the second half of 2015. We cannot avoid strong market correction or beginning of bear market in 2015. Therefore, identifying next winning sectors are vital.



Asian Emerging and frontier economies will benefit from cheap oil. Funds exposure to South Asian region and China will benefit lot.



Interest rate will adjust in line with Australia. Otherwise NZD Will trade above the parity. This could lead to lower arrival of tourists and will lose export competitiveness further. Higher NZD will be double whammy for the economy.



It could reach parity with AUD in the first half of 2015.



Defensive sector rotation will accelerate in 2015. The Utilities had a good lead in 2014 followed by health, tech and consumer staples in major markets.



Tech won’t be the frontrunner in 2015.



The energy sector, which could soon experience a wave of defaults.



Some sectors, assets, markets and currencies to benefit from a “flight to safety” bid when volatility spikes.



USD will be number one strong currency in 2015.



Both NZD and AUD will depreciate against USD strongly specially in the second half of 2015. We may see era of trading one NZD and one AUD equal to 0.50 USD. Some analysts and some top banks are expecting around 0.70USD.



There could be some demand for commodity stocks toward end of 2015.



Globally out of favour sectors should outperform others in 2015 and 2016. Contrarian investors having intelligent contrarian ideas will have excellent opportunities in 2015 and 2016.

DYOR

Have a happy and prosperous New Year 2015!

[whatsup]

GFL imo all of the "bad " news is out and with the rights issue/recap out of the way there should be good news sometimes in the future, the "major " underwriter/shareholder is not here for a laugh!!

[Beagle]

Further predictions for 2015.
6. SUM will be in the naughty corner again, (worst 10 performers in the NZX 50 for 2015)
7. GFL will make yet another loss this year and Mr Oconnell will cut and paste the vast majority of previous year's B.S. from his annual review and post the same tired old tripe again...losses from old loan book, we're coming right, YEAH RIGHT, someone hand me another Tui's :lol: There's an old saying that every dog has its day but there's an exception to every rule and GFL is it.

[whatsup]

Further predictions for 2015.
6. SUM will be in the naughty corner again, (worst 10 performers in the NZX 50 for 2015)
7. GFL will make yet another loss this year and Mr Oconnell will cut and paste the vast majority of previous year's B.S. from his annual review and post the same tired old tripe again...losses from old loan book, we're coming right, YEAH RIGHT, someone hand me another Tui's :lol: There's an old saying that every dog has its day but there's an exception to every rule and GFL is it.

Except its been not too bad an investment for me bought some at .019/.02 now trading at .03+ with much more to come IMHO.

[Beagle]

Just keep telling yourself how good it is when the receiver is appointed in due course. You can still lose 100% of your investment, effectively for all intents and purposes what's happened to the poor sods who were obliged to convert some of their debentures into shares in this dog in the first place. Shares issued at 36 cents from memory...I bet those original shareholders having lost 92% of their investment are really "thrilled" with the 3 cent share price.

[whatsup]

Just keep telling yourself how good it is when the receiver is appointed in due course. You can still lose 100% of your investment, effectively for all intents and purposes what's happened to the poor sods who were obliged to convert some of their debentures into shares in this dog in the first place. Shares issued at 36 cents from memory...I bet those original shareholders having lost 92% of their investment are really "thrilled" with the 3 cent share price.


I guess this is better than Peter France old Chase investment !

[Aaron]

Not company specific
1/ Commodity price falls are a leading indicator for the world economy
2/Bank or financial institution goes bust on bad loans (possibly in China) everyone gets scared government guarantees back in place. People involved in bad bank are fired with a big redundancy package and no further problems. Taxpayers to the fore to take on losses but govts already loaded up with debt from last time.
3/More money printing, zero interest rates or possibly the ridiculous situation of banks charging depositors to look after their money.
4/Black Swan event when faith in Russian rouble (or another minor currency) evaporates entirely raising concern about all world currencies and how ridiculous things have got.
5/ Gold becomes an insurance policy against the destruction of currencies and the domino effect from the first currencies failure.
6/ Undervalued gold miners will make some people a fortune as their share prices rocket.
7/ It will start to affect the average person on the street so they will start voting in more radical left leaning govt.

1/ isn't a forecast as it is currently happening. 4/ is sort of happening already but not yet a complete loss of faith.
See you in twelve months to gloat about my psychic abilities.
P.s bought small share in Newcrest two weeks ago based on this forecast.

[nextbigthing]

Not company specific
1/ Commodity price falls are a leading indicator for the world economy
2/Bank or financial institution goes bust on bad loans (possibly in China) everyone gets scared government guarantees back in place. People involved in bad bank are fired with a big redundancy package and no further problems. Taxpayers to the fore to take on losses but govts already loaded up with debt from last time.
3/More money printing, zero interest rates or possibly the ridiculous situation of banks charging depositors to look after their money.
4/Black Swan event when faith in Russian rouble (or another minor currency) evaporates entirely raising concern about all world currencies and how ridiculous things have got.
5/ Gold becomes an insurance policy against the destruction of currencies and the domino effect from the first currencies failure.
6/ Undervalued gold miners will make some people a fortune as their share prices rocket.
7/ It will start to affect the average person on the street so they will start voting in more radical left leaning govt.

1/ isn't a forecast as it is currently happening. 4/ is sort of happening already but not yet a complete loss of faith.
See you in twelve months to gloat about my psychic abilities.
P.s bought small share in Newcrest two weeks ago based on this forecast.

I think I saw you on TV a while ago Aaron, Doomsday Preppers was the name of the show. ;)

[Valuegrowth]

My Further predictions for 2015

Russia may sell part of their gold due to their economic problems and due to falling income from oil.

USD index will go up further

DYOR

[nextbigthing]

1) The media will continue to pump stories about why some sector is going to fail, followed the next day by a story about why that same sector is the place to be this year. It's just noise. Follow earnings and it won't be a problem.

2) Interest rates in NZ will remain roughly where they are now.

3) Some more bad stuff will happen in the world.

4) One stock on the NZX will have a blisteringly hot run. Unfortunately I can't tell you which it is. Because I don't know either.

5) At same stage we will have another correction and everyone will be spouting how this is the end and we're all going to be eating rice from under a bridge. A month later the market will be 5% higher than before the correction.

6) We will all be a year older, the sun will continue to rise and we will realise life goes on.

[Aaron]

I think I saw you on TV a while ago Aaron, Doomsday Preppers was the name of the show. ;)
Anyone who listens to my forecasts need their head read. My NCM purchase is a speculative size as I don't really believe it myself although I am up 7% over a short time.
Your forecast might be closer to reality, time will tell.
We actually live in times of plenty. I do worry about retirement though. Investment failures and boomers leaving the kitty empty. Too much(wealth and power) in too few hands could cause a change in thinking but that could be a long time coming.
I haven't bought a generator & don't stock canned food. NZ is the most likely place in the world where people will come together to help each other out rather than the current trend towards selfishness.

[Valuegrowth]

We will also see some of the highest volatility in stocks and commodities in 2015.

DYOR.

[troyvdh]

Just an early observation...I have been an SM investor for over 30 years...
...Stock picking has been critical
....yield and property companies are king
....the future for dairy etc seems very dire as has been predicted..."when everyone is thinking the same thing ...no one is thinking"
....no arrogance intended...
cheers...troy
Holdings by $ value priority are PFI RYM CEN ......

[Billy Boy]

Just an early observation...I have been an SM investor for over 30 years...
...Stock picking has been critical
....yield and property companies are king
....the future for dairy etc seems very dire as has been predicted..."when everyone is thinking the same thing ...no one is thinking"
....no arrogance intended...
cheers...troy
Holdings by $ value priority are PFI RYM CEN ......
.
Hey there..... You been pinching my script ???:)
BB

[Valuegrowth]

Now Bill Gross, bond king has a bold, depressing prediction for 2015. We have to wait and see.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-06/bill-gross-calls-it-2015-is-going-to-be-terrible.html

Bill Gross Calls It: 2015 Is Going to Be Terrible

[Billy Boy]

Greece and what happens at the end of this month.
Will they stay or leave the euro zone ?? if they leave
then markets will take a hit. ... Say some commentators.
US interest rates (upward) could play a part depending on their
size and timing, say others....
The pricing of commodities and deflation, are mentioned
and so it goes on.
Which of these people does one believe ??
BB

[BlackPeter]

Greece and what happens at the end of this month.
Will they stay or leave the euro zone ?? if they leave
then markets will take a hit. ... Say some commentators.
US interest rates (upward) could play a part depending on their
size and timing, say others....
The pricing of commodities and deflation, are mentioned
and so it goes on.
Which of these people does one believe ??
BB

This is not about believing - this is all about research! Do your own ... :p

[bung5]

My guess is that NZO take over CUE.asx

[Everwood]

Xero will close above $25 by the last day of trading this year, if they list on NASDAQ within the first 6 months of this year.

[pierre]

There will be good news this year from BLT, HNZ, PEB, DIL and XRO.
SP's at year end will be above:
3c - BLT
$1.30 - HNZ
$1.50 - PEB
$6.00 - DIL
$25.00 - XRO

Discl - Hold all - heavily invested in the first 4

[Minerbarejet]

There will be good news this year from BLT, HNZ, PEB, DIL and XRO.
SP's at year end will be above:
3c - BLT
$1.30 - HNZ
$1.50 - PEB
$6.00 - DIL
$25.00 - XRO

Discl - Hold all - heavily invested in the first 4
Raises the obvious question, pierre,
Will you still be "heavily invested " in those shares at those prices?

[pierre]

Raises the obvious question, pierre,
Will you still be "heavily invested " in those shares at those prices?

Haha. I always find it easier to buy companies than to sell them. If the SPs reach my predicted (i.e. optimistically hoped for) prices then I shall have more than doubled my investment in the first 4 and more than quadrupled my XRO value.

Remaining heavily invested will depend on whether I think their values will continue to trend higher, or whether I want to cash in a few and buy the new Audi, or take another 3 months trip to Europe etc. I am generally pretty much a buy and hold man.

So will I remain heavily invested? Dunno - but my past form suggests probably yes.

[troyvdh]

Dear bung...at what price ...cheers

[dingoNZ]

FPH will backtrack this year IMO, I see them losing market share to RMD

[skid]

Haha. I always find it easier to buy companies than to sell them. If the SPs reach my predicted (i.e. optimistically hoped for) prices then I shall have more than doubled my investment in the first 4 and more than quadrupled my XRO value.

Remaining heavily invested will depend on whether I think their values will continue to trend higher, or whether I want to cash in a few and buy the new Audi, or take another 3 months trip to Europe etc. I am generally pretty much a buy and hold man.

So will I remain heavily invested? Dunno - but my past form suggests probably yes.

I think your first example of whether you stay heavily invested is much better than your last two:)

[skid]

Im predicting you will not see cheap oil at the end of this year.
Im predicting sooner or later the US will have to see if they can actually raise interest rates without the house of cards falling--They will either --not raise interest rates--or raise interest rates and things will not go well.

I predict there will be much more sadness brought about by violence unless leaders start looking at the reason why.

I predict the shares we saw ''go ballistic'' in 2014 will not not repeat the performance,even with encouraging news.

[dingoNZ]

I think oil will stabilize around mid/late $50 mark and once we see that we will see some deflation which will be offset by a rise in GDP growth once we see the flow through from the dropping oil price, I see strong growth in US markets this year. I expect the DOW to be at 20K by year end

[troyvdh]

Me thinks a lot hinges on what the Dutch say in July...think about it.

[BFG]

???

http://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2014/07/07/decision-on-future-of-dutch-dtt-in-2015/

[troyvdh]

dear bfg...you may have heard that a civilian jet liner was shot down over Ukraine...a while back...it appears the likely culprit was a Russian fired missile (Bok or Buk)...the Russians state it was downed by a Ukranian fighter jet...missle wise.
Russia is already experiencing a few hurdles with sanctions imposed by ..blah blah...
Russia is currently not importing "food" from Europe...
Trading nations with Russia...I.e. milk product producers are not exporting to Russia
There appears to be an abundance (and growing) supply of milk powder to the world
The worlds wealthiest woman (Gina) is supposedly getting into dairying
Oil...Russia population is 50 % depended on the State
Russia is 50 % depended on the price of oil
Putin was warned about this....
OPEC has decided to maintain oil production ..what whatever in order to screw American frackers (who need $80-$100) and the Russians out of the ball park....(there cost of production being around $50 or so...
If the Dutch determine that it was indeed a Russian missile that downed that plane...

Will sanctions increase.......
Its my understanding that Russian exploration in the Arctic is reliant on US technology ?
World cup soccer in Russia...193 Dutch dead..and how many Australians 19 ?

get the picture ?????

[BFG]

dear bfg...you may have heard that a civilian jet liner was shot down over Ukraine...a while back...it appears the likely culprit was a Russian fired missile (Bok or Buk)...the Russians state it was downed by a Ukranian fighter jet...missle wise.
Russia is already experiencing a few hurdles with sanctions imposed by ..blah blah...
Russia is currently not importing "food" from Europe...
Trading nations with Russia...I.e. milk product producers are not exporting to Russia
There appears to be an abundance (and growing) supply of milk powder to the world
The worlds wealthiest woman (Gina) is supposedly getting into dairying
Oil...Russia population is 50 % depended on the State
Russia is 50 % depended on the price of oil
Putin was warned about this....
OPEC has decided to maintain oil production ..what whatever in order to screw American frackers (who need $80-$100) and the Russians out of the ball park....(there cost of production being around $50 or so...
If the Dutch determine that it was indeed a Russian missile that downed that plane...

Will sanctions increase.......
Its my understanding that Russian exploration in the Arctic is reliant on US technology ?
World cup soccer in Russia...193 Dutch dead..and how many Australians 19 ?

get the picture ?????

That required A LOT of thinking (and very few Dutchies) but we got there!

Me thinks the Americans couldn't give a toss what the Dutch decide, this is a case of guilty until proven guiltier. There will be more sanctions regardless, and Putin will have to put in FULL price controls to stop the Ruble totally collapsing.

Oil will also stay down longer than everyone seems to think. Google US production vs Hulbert Curve. Production hasn't even peaked yet, and when it does then it will stay there for at least a few years. :)

[Tomtom]

2) NZX going sidewards (though expect some ups and downs during the year) Yes, I'm predicting some ups and downs through the year as well as I gather markets often do that.

[winner69]

oil will stabilize when the Saudi's have achieved their goals(closing of over production)
Whilst it will rise off the lows it is entirely feasible the price will remain between $65-75 a barrel for some time.
WHY?......in that range the production that has stopped(due to the low oil price) will still not be profitable and therefore will not get funding to turn the taps back on.
To be honest I would imagine the Saudi's would keep a really good eye on world production and knowing what the debt levels are like on the new US oil wells they must have placed a mountain of short positions on oil companies before embarking on their no cut to production, no matter what stance.

Good if they have to stop all the nonsense tar sands stuff in Alberta ....the moose might start coming back instead of being poisoned by the contamination caused.

Awful stories of moose with green flesh because of it.

Can't have moose becoming extinct can we

[BFG]

Good if they have to stop all the nonsense tar sands stuff in Alberta ....the moose might start coming back instead of being poisoned by the contamination caused.

Awful stories of moose with green flesh because of it.

Can't have moose becoming extinct can we

As long as they don't find tar sands here there will always be at least one Moose left ;)

[Stumpynuts]

I predict NTL will announce a working Joint Venture with Waihi based Newmont Mining, to work on current talisman mine and to do assessment of Rahu permit which may or may not become an extension of the current mining permit issued to NTL.

[stanace]

oil will stabilize when the Saudi's have achieved their goals(closing of over production)
Whilst it will rise off the lows it is entirely feasible the price will remain between $65-75 a barrel for some time.
WHY?......in that range the production that has stopped(due to the low oil price) will still not be profitable and therefore will not get funding to turn the taps back on.
To be honest I would imagine the Saudi's would keep a really good eye on world production and knowing what the debt levels are like on the new US oil wells they must have placed a mountain of short positions on oil companies before embarking on their no cut to production, no matter what stance.

I agree but think they are smarter than that. I can see oil getting below $40, for a short while, and as soon as the Saudis see that the Canadian and US companies have gone bust, they will reduce production severely, to help all the ones who suffered but supported their position, and yes 65-75 is possible, but I think 80-100 will be closer.

[Schrodinger]

That required A LOT of thinking (and very few Dutchies) but we got there!

Me thinks the Americans couldn't give a toss what the Dutch decide, this is a case of guilty until proven guiltier. There will be more sanctions regardless, and Putin will have to put in FULL price controls to stop the Ruble totally collapsing.

Oil will also stay down longer than everyone seems to think. Google US production vs Hulbert Curve. Production hasn't even peaked yet, and when it does then it will stay there for at least a few years. :)

Might want to back the truck up a little there.

Russia is a very powerful nation who is virtually self reliant on nearly everything (energy/food/military/technology). They have the ability to diversify their export markets (China/India/Brazil) and the devaluation of a currency will result in economic structural changes but not regime changes.

The US is targeting financial assets such as investment flows and exports to slow down Russia as they know they cant cut energy/food/military or other things to hurt them. They are big enough to absorb these changes. Russia will be pushed increasingly towards China (2 big gas deals), Central Asia and India.

What you will see are regional trading blocs forming and the replacement of the US dollar as the reserve currency and countries settling trade in direct currency conversions excluding the US dollar.

It is true US technology would make the Arctic easier but they can get this from Norway or other explorer nations. Exxon has a huge energy exploration investment in the Arctic and the US will do nothing to provoke Russia nationalising this investment.

[Stumpynuts]

I hope you are right....... I thought A JV with OGC might be another good option.

I'd be happy with a JV with either company, although Newmont seems the more logical choice wouldn't you think?
Seeing as they're basically down the road and they're already handling NTL's ore anyway.

[troyvdh]

Dear Schrodinger.You state that Russia is a very powerful nation.......just a few things..
-Russia is 135 (out of 174) most corrupt country ,....worse than Pakistan.
-Its my understanding that the issue of bribes etc is quite significant..i.e. you pay extra for most services and a majority of folk doing well are those connected to these people.
-Last year I went by train through Russia-Moscow.To my eye there appeared to be little organised anything...fenced anything,road town ..city planning...substantial infrastructure.In many ways it was fairly third world...houses roads etc.
-Moscow ...well unbelievable ..never seen so many Astons, Range Rovers etc.Mid twenty year olds in bars talked about apartments worth 2-3 US$million (now as we know that's been halved).Shopping malls like thos e seen anywhere in Europe.
-When I last visited 30 years ago..only the Gum store had much stuff and only diplomats and tourists were allowed to visit..Again to my eye most folk survived on bread and potatoes.
-So yes Moscow has changed but....

Lastly may I suggest that Russia survives because of its people are powerfully resilient when it comes to suffering ?..as history has shown us.

[skid]

As long as they don't find tar sands here there will always be at least one Moose left ;)

Just watch out for ''tar and feathered'':):) Dem guys are gunnun for ye

[skid]

hopefully Russia does not take advantage of their low currency and still reasonably good log prices.
This is a major export for Russia and they may start the chainsaws up to increase market share and export income.
Many in NZ do not understand how important this sector is to our economy and a big fall off in log prices on top of dairy would be very very bad for NZ.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/LU/

It is also very bad for Europe(oil-gas) At some stage they will lose patience with America making decisions that some one else has to pay the price for(and that someone is supposed to be their friends)---better tap their phones to see how they are handling it

[troyvdh]

Dear snap...what do you mean...like rejoice that fuel is cheaper etc etc...less pressure on "economies"....lower inflation...cheaper interest rates...more borrowing ....higher house prices...likes of RYM MET SUM going ballistic....more folk looking at sharemarket investments because they need a certain return on capital to maintain blah blah...

Now Im not saying that low interest environment is healthy...speculation ....particularly houses....batches...et al ..because as well all know ..it does not end well ......

Or are you saying that those folk who have investments re oil ....are ..well hurting...cheers

[Marilyn Munroe]

My concern for 2015 is the Dollars and Yen created by the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve at the click of a mouse are contributing to the exuberance of the New Zealand stock market.

What will happen when the computers this mouse click currency is created on segfault?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Marilyn Munroe]

...is the Dollars and Yen created by the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve at the click of a mouse...

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Add the European Central Bank to the mouse click currency creators.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Baa_Baa]

Worry about when the QE clicking stops, meanwhile make the most of the exuberance. Just a thought.

[silu]

My main worry is Europe. I've just spent 3 weeks there and the mood is pretty gloomy. Also reading about some quite sad unemployment figures.

On a more personal note I have a vested interest in AJX.AX so I'm predicting European and US regulation to ban Brominated Flame Retardants. discl. hold AJX and DYOR

P.S. Btw I really appreciate the free exchange of thoughts and information from regulars on this forum. My input here is minimal but I enjoy reading all your posts.

[skid]

All most likely set off by something we dont see coming......




Quote of the day......Be yourself...Every one else is taken:)

[Bobdn]

Uptake of UFB will more than treble to 32 per cent by this time next year. With Netflix on the way and Lightbox and other VOD services already here, demand for UFB will surge and take everyone by surprise. Local Fibre Companies (Northpower, Waikato Networks Ltd, Enable Service Ltd, and Chorus) and the RSPs will struggle to keep up with demand.

2015 will become known as the year that UFB took off. You read it here first.

[Kirk]

Uptake of UFB will more than treble to 32 per cent by this time next year. With Netflix on the way and Lightbox and other VOD services already here, demand for UFB will surge and take everyone by surprise. Local Fibre Companies (Northpower, Waikato Networks Ltd, Enable Service Ltd, and Chorus) and the RSPs will struggle to keep up with demand.

2015 will become known as the year that UFB took off. You read it here first.

As Netflix arrive and kiwis take up the great offer sky shares will fall and sky subscriptions will fall. Sky share price to drop by at least $1

[Hoop]

UFB has the potential to offer households superior communication data and in 2015 we may see fibre superceding coppers potential...such as faster speeds to handle and create more complex programming....Tried opening up a simple webpage lately using the year 2000 technology speed (dial up speed max 56kb/sec)..

2015 will see a sudden demand to switch from copper to fibre causing waiting lists for connection

I predict in 2015 more and more people will opt to watch TV using the internet source over that of terrestrial or satellite source...
I predict internet TV will continue to provide new services ..2015 the start of streaming Ultra high def (4K) in NZ...
A cheap basic entry Fibre 30mb/sec no cap plan will shift to 100 mb/sec cheap entry plan]..

Also 2015 will see a continuing flood of new tech companies providing the home entertainment, Education, Medicine (biotech), Businesses, shopping, data storage, new solutions as these sectors continue to evolve and morph within their lifecycles.

Traditional shopping transformation begins...shopping malls rental space/price comes under pressure..city centres transform

[Marilyn Munroe]

Previously on this thread I was warning about the creation of money by mouse click by the central banks of US Japan and Europe and the spill over it creates in pushing up NZ share prices.

Peter Lyons in the NZHerald has an article which explains far better than I can what I was banging on about.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11394962

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[bunter]

Migration of money into second line stocks as the leaders become fully valued and investors chase dividends and growth elsewhere.

[MAC]

I think possibly you may be proven right Bunter,

Last year we saw a cyclical sort of shift from growth stocks to large cap yield, particularly so with the power company IPO's sucking cash out of the NZX like a dyson.

When profit taking occurs on those large cap yields the offshore cash may flood away quite quickly, the local cash may look for growth again, as even the second line cyclical's remain fully valued.

[bung5]

My guess is that NZO take over CUE.asx

First prediction confirmed. didn't take long

[Hoop]

UFB has the potential to offer households superior communication data and in 2015 we may see fibre superceding coppers potential...such as faster speeds to handle and create more complex programming....Tried opening up a simple webpage lately using the year 2000 technology speed (dial up speed max 56kb/sec)..

2015 will see a sudden demand to switch from copper to fibre causing waiting lists for connection

I predict in 2015 more and more people will opt to watch TV using the internet source over that of terrestrial or satellite source...
I predict internet TV will continue to provide new services ..2015 the start of streaming Ultra high def (4K) in NZ...
A cheap basic entry Fibre 30mb/sec no cap plan will shift to 100 mb/sec cheap entry plan]..

Also 2015 will see a continuing flood of new tech companies providing the home entertainment, Education, Medicine (biotech), Businesses, shopping, data storage, new solutions as these sectors continue to evolve and morph within their lifecycles.

Traditional shopping transformation begins...shopping malls rental space/price comes under pressure..city centres transform

Australians to sell four NZ Westfield malls (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11407122)Scentre group..starting to exit malls...smart money exiting?

[kiora]

S & P 2018
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/goldman-sachs-2015-sp-500-target-2100-2014-11
Goldman Sachs where right on the button in 2013

[noodles]

Intueri have already made 2 acquisitions in 2014. I think they can acquire another 3 in 2015.

With the 2 new acquisitions, they should beat 2015 PFI by 10%. However, given the growth in international students and 3 additional acquisitions, I think we could beat 2015 PFI by 20%.

Intueri have good visibility of profits given the nature of student enrollments. We should know by the AGM in April how they are tracking.
fail........

[noodles]

Scales have already surprised the market by declaring a 3c interim dividend. I think that the full year dividend (interim + final) will exceed PFI dividend of 9.5c. I suspect the full year dividend will be 12.5c + imputation credits. While this might seem fanciful, a 12.5c dividend would still be less than earnings per share and I'm sure management are well aware that the share price is below listing price.

A 12.5c dividend would equate to a gross yield of 12%

We will find out in February.
fail......

[Beagle]

Not a fail per se mate, slight undershoot on the dividend but they're keeping more capital for their expansion over the next few years. Shareholders are...wait for it... there's that phrase again, "well positioned" to continue to enjoy the juicy uptrend and tasty future rewards :)

[noodles]

Not a fail per se mate, slight undershoot on the dividend but they're keeping more capital for their expansion over the next few years. Shareholders are...wait for it... there's that phrase again, "well positioned" to continue to enjoy the juicy uptrend and tasty future rewards :)
OK, a B-
lol

[skid]

UFB has the potential to offer households superior communication data and in 2015 we may see fibre superceding coppers potential...such as faster speeds to handle and create more complex programming....Tried opening up a simple webpage lately using the year 2000 technology speed (dial up speed max 56kb/sec)..

2015 will see a sudden demand to switch from copper to fibre causing waiting lists for connection

I predict in 2015 more and more people will opt to watch TV using the internet source over that of terrestrial or satellite source...
I predict internet TV will continue to provide new services ..2015 the start of streaming Ultra high def (4K) in NZ...
A cheap basic entry Fibre 30mb/sec no cap plan will shift to 100 mb/sec cheap entry plan]..

Also 2015 will see a continuing flood of new tech companies providing the home entertainment, Education, Medicine (biotech), Businesses, shopping, data storage, new solutions as these sectors continue to evolve and morph within their lifecycles.

Traditional shopping transformation begins...shopping malls rental space/price comes under pressure..city centres transform

Until someone accidentally or intentionally cuts the cable running off Takapuna beach (woefully exposed at one point as we walked on the beach) and all internet is out :ohmy:

but one thing Ive noticed,is that the quality of normal TV continues to slide,backing up what you say.

[skid]

As Netflix arrive and kiwis take up the great offer sky shares will fall and sky subscriptions will fall. Sky share price to drop by at least $1

And they still increased their subscription rate again--Stupid management--(they may skate buy til after the rugby W cup but then watch out)

[Rep]

Sky TV called at home recently to try and convince us to renew our lapsed subscription (4 years since we returned decoder). Mrs Rep suggested politely that the endless loop of repeats, ad breaks in sport coverage, availability of content elsewhere and poor on demand options didn't suit our household...

[BlackPeter]

January 4, 2015 I wrote:

My crystal ball is cloudy, as always. DYOR.

Nevertheless - at year end 2015 I'd expect:

1) Interest rates will stay low (and in NZ more likely to drop than stay)

2) NZX going sidewards (though expect some ups and downs during the year)

3) Oil stays below USD60 (say somewhere between USD40 and USD60)

4) Coking coal (BRL) will recover - expect SP to rise by at least factor 2 or 3 (might be more)

5) NWF - agree with Jantar: think that the legal battle will clear up and SP likely to double as well

6) Another bumpy ride for the tech stocks with mainly unpredictable outcome ... but I think that PEB might rise.

7) Not sure where OHE and WYN will end up, but expect for both good buying opportunities in the first half of the year (ESCROW period for major shareholders running out).

8) Emerging economies will benefit from cheap oil (good for funds like TEM).

A slightly belated Happy New Year to everybody on sharetrader - may the investment sun shine on all of us!

Always dangerous to revisit predictions, but still sort of wondering, how well it went. Maybe a learning opportunity? Lets see:


My crystal ball is cloudy, as always. DYOR.


Well, this was quite accurate - wasn't it :t_up:? 10/10 (just kidding)



1) Interest rates will stay low (and in NZ more likely to drop than stay)


OK - so I got that right, interest rates stayed low internationally and did drop in NZ: 10/10!



2) NZX going sidewards (though expect some ups and downs during the year)


Well - we certainly had the predicted ups and downs, but NZX had a quite amazing push upwards (assuming the reminder of the day is not spoiling it):
0/10;



3) Oil stays below USD60 (say somewhere between USD40 and USD60)


Well - I did got that right, didn't I? 10/10



4) Coking coal (BRL) will recover - expect SP to rise by at least factor 2 or 3 (might be more)


Yeah - right ... still don't like TUI, but make that 0/10!



5) NWF - agree with Jantar: think that the legal battle will clear up and SP likely to double as well


Not too bad - the legal battle is finished (though the City council has now an opportunity to change the resource consent) - and the share price basically doubled. Lets make this 8/10;



6) Another bumpy ride for the tech stocks with mainly unpredictable outcome ... but I think that PEB might rise.


Well - bumpy, yes, but PEB rising? I guess it depends on the time window we look at, but to be fair, lets call it 0/10;



7) Not sure where OHE and WYN will end up, but expect for both good buying opportunities in the first half of the year (ESCROW period for major shareholders running out).


Oh well - I sort of got that right for WYN (though the best buying was in Q3) ... OHE is still dropping - and who knows, where it will go. 4/10 fair enough?



8) Emerging economies will benefit from cheap oil (good for funds like TEM).

I must have missed some bits in this analysis ... oil is really cheap, but somehow it didn't do the emerging economies any good. 0/10;

OK - makes it 32/80 (ignoring the crystal ball prediction). 40% right? Maybe I should consider a career in meteorology?

Anyway - Best wishes for 2016 to everybody - may your portfolios perform better than I when predicting the 2015 economy ...

[Snow Leopard]

...OK - makes it 32/80 (ignoring the crystal ball prediction). 40% right? Maybe I should consider a career in meteorology?...

Watching rocks burn up in the atmosphere? Nah!

Maybe you could forecast the weather instead:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qslJQUMc9yA

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[BlackPeter]

Watching rocks burn up in the atmosphere? Nah!

Maybe you could forecast the weather instead:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qslJQUMc9yA

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I think this is what I meant ... forecasting the weather.

Though if I look at the supplied link: my hair is more greyish and shorter than that of the good looking English lady you referred to and I don't talk with such a nice POME accent either. On the other hand ... maybe a handsome mature guy could do an as good (or even better) job forecasting the weather than a good looking gal?

Maybe I just need to emancipate myself ...;)?

[Snow Leopard]

...Maybe I just need to emancipate myself ...;)?

Do not concern yourself with becoming thinner, it is much better to feel free to be who you are.

Best Wishes & Happy New Year
Paper Tiger

[Major von Tempsky]

Oh, sigh of disappointment.

I turned to this page in hopes of some mea culpa, breastbeatings and explanations of why you got 2015 so horribly wrong?

How can we read your 2016 predictions if you haven't fronted up for 2015....