An Experiment In Not Losing Too Much Money

[Snow Leopard]

Subtitled: Loose Trading Loses Money. (4 jonu :)))

So this is concerned with buying stocks with the intent of selling them at a higher price later in order to make a profit.
In a word: Trading Long. (OK, in two words).

Buys are limited to stocks in the ASX300 at the time of purchase.
The initial 'cash' for this experiment is $25,000, which creates the first set of problems - it is not a lot of money.

Among the rules of trading are that you:
- never risk more than 2% of your capital on any one stock;
- have diversity in your trades;
- cut your loses;
- let your profits run.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[jonu]

Ahh, but are you talking about loosing - as in freeing up, or perhaps more appropriately, losing?

[Snow Leopard]

Trade #1:
Date: 10-Mar-2015
Buy: 375 ASX.RMD (ResMed Inc) for $3,307.50 ($8.82 each),
brokerage of $15.37;
total is $3,322.87.


Minimum No-Loss Sell Price: $8.905.


Maximum Risk Amount: 12.5% of buy.
Risk Sell Price $7.795 (about where the green line hits the right hand edge); (loss $415.36)

7197

Is joining a fairly rapid uptrend that is nearly five months old a good idea?
Time and the sell decision will tell.

----------------
With only $25,000 total initial capital and brokerage at a minimum of $15.37, then $3,300 is [arbitrarily] chosen as one initial (maximum) limit on trade size - this allows 7 parallel trades and brokerage for the round trip is less than 1% of the initial buy.

[Snow Leopard]

Trade #2:
Date: 12-Mar-2015
Buy 1550 ASX.SPO (Spotless Group) for $3301.50 ($2.13 each)
brokerage of $15.37
total is $3316.87

Minimum No-Loss Sell Price: $2.15

Maximum Risk Amount: 10.8% of buy.
Risk Sell Price $1.90 (project a nice trend line across those three lows); (loss $371.87)

7198

Listed for less than a year but a lovely uptrend - surely the sensible idea is to buy in when the price has just tested the trend line?
Time will tell.

----------------
This and the prior buy of RMD were made by this simple process:
Find all the ASX300 stocks where the closing price for the day (9-Mar for RMD & 11-Mar here) was higher than any other close in the 12 months;
Pick any one;
Buy it next day.

[Snow Leopard]

Trade #3:
Date: 16-Mar-2015
Buy 1965 ASX.ASB (Austal) for $3301.20 ($1.68 each)
brokerage of $15.37
total is $3316.57

Minimum No-Loss Sell Price: $1.700

Maximum Risk Amount: 5.3% of buy.
Risk Sell Price $1.59 (a recent resistance level?); (loss $176.85)

7202
[Piccy is of state of play after Friday 13th - not Monday 16th]

Sort of broke out from a couple of months rest from the uptrend. The price $1.59 figures reasonably often in this period as a high and/or closing value and so in theory makes a good (but tight) value to place a stop at.

----------------
The idea is to look in on our portfolio at the end of the day and if the closing price for the day is below our stop value then, if we still own it, we aim to sell the next day.

This of course means that we may actually lose more than our at risk amount. But hopefully a decision to sell as been made before this final exit point is reached.

[Snow Leopard]

When I 'bought' SPO (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10186-An-Experiment-In-Not-Losing-Too-Much-Money&p=563887&viewfull=1#post563887) on 12-Mar-15 another candidate which could well have been chosen under the selection criteria was Sirtex Medical.

Doing a what if on this scenario would have resulted in:

Buying 85 ASX.SRX (Sirtex Medical) for $3326.05 ($39.13 each)
brokerage of $15.37
total is $3341.42

Even allowing for the full $500 risk then the stop loss sell price would have been set at $33.25.

Yesterday it closed at $17.53 and thus we would be selling today.

Assuming a sell at $19.00 per share in the early hours of trading then we would have realised a loss of $1,741.79.

================

By the grace of the good fortune the actual position of the portfolio at close of trade yesterday is a total value of $25,346.14 (or a gain of 1.38%).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Trade #4:
Date: 18-Mar-2015
Buy 174 ASX.SRX (Sirtex Medical) for $3306.00 ($19.00 each)
brokerage of $15.37
total is $3321.37

Minimum No-Loss Sell Price: $19.180

Maximum Risk Amount: 7.7% of buy.
Risk Sell Price $17.53 (yesterdays close); (loss $255.78)

7207

Price collapsed on a bad news item - now needs to find a new price to settle at.
An opportunity to try this portfolio's rules out on such a trade - not that one trade is a representative sample.

----------------
I love this sort of thing happening and like to do short term trades, keeping a fairly close eye on goings on during the first few days.
In the real world actually bought in this morning.

[nzspeak]

This may be a dumb question but you said "never risk more than 2% of your capital on any one stock" which is $500, 2% of $25000 but as far as I know the ASX is closed far more the 50% of the time (weekend & after hours). What happens on black Monday when they ASX is closed? seems like you are risking far more than 2%. I apologise if I'm missing something but I don't quite understand?

[Snow Leopard]

This may be a dumb question but you said "never risk more than 2% of your capital on any one stock" which is $500, 2% of $25000 but as far as I know the ASX is closed far more the 50% of the time (weekend & after hours). What happens on black Monday when they ASX is closed? seems like you are risking far more than 2%. I apologise if I'm missing something but I don't quite understand?

Hopefully I can explain it first go but feel free to come back.

The idea of trading is to cut your losses and let your profits run.

When you initially enter a trade you set an initial price lower than your buy price where you accept that things are not going to plan and you sell. If you exit at this price you are so many dollars the poorer. However there is no guarantee that if things go seriously astray that you will not lose more.

The example in this post (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10186-An-Experiment-In-Not-Losing-Too-Much-Money&p=564199&viewfull=1#post564199) may be helpful: we set our risk at the full $500 (2% of portfolio) through our nominated stop loss, but actually lost $1,741, which is 7% of the total portfolio value.

But also that $500 represented a 15% drop in price on that one stock if we bought $3,300 worth.

If we were fully invested over the 7 trades with all the money we had and the market dropped then we could actually wear a reasonable significant (up to 15%) drop within our rules. (Though we might decide to get out completely, quick as, and be a spectator until things settle down).

Unfortunately we have not eliminated the risk of a significant market event really biting deep and we could end up carrying some serious losses.

So the 2% rule aims to stop you risking too much money on a single trade and help to mitigate risks.

You realise, I hope, that as individual trades develop we raise our exit prices and the risk/loss amount is reducing.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Note to self: Position sizing.

[nzspeak]

When you initially enter a trade you set an initial price lower than your buy price where you accept that things are not going to plan and you sell. If you exit at this price you are so many dollars the poorer. However there is no guarantee that if things go seriously astray that you will not lose more.


I'm looking at your first trade- You have Resmed. I don't know Resmed but I do own a lot of FPH. I believe they roughly compete against each other and there share prices have both gone up exponentially together. FPH has a P/E well over 30 now and I believe resmed has as well. I would have thought spending 12.5% of your capital in a company with a P/E well over 30 in an illiquid market (ASX) isn't an 'experiment for not losing too much money'. I'm sorry if I'm being argumentative here, I'm just worried people might follow this 'safe' advice.
PS I haven't looked at your other trades so I'm sorry if I'm generalizing.

[Snow Leopard]

I'm looking at your first trade- You have Resmed. I don't know Resmed but I do own a lot of FPH. I believe they roughly compete against each other and there share prices have both gone up exponentially together. FPH has a P/E well over 30 now and I believe resmed has as well. I would have thought spending 12.5% of your capital in a company with a P/E well over 30 in an illiquid market (ASX) isn't an 'experiment for not losing too much money'. I'm sorry if I'm being argumentative here, I'm just worried people might follow this 'safe' advice.
PS I haven't looked at your other trades so I'm sorry if I'm generalizing.


Not sure what you are getting at here, at all.

Do you regard 12.5% as a lot?

It is not illiquid - average daily turnover is about 4,500,000 shares (or AU$40M).

How would you describe it?

It was 'bought' because it is going up and will be 'sold' when it stops (however that is defined).

This thread is currently about trading for a profit and limiting the losses on route.

The fundamentals of any of the companies have not come in to it.

But the idea is to
A) Post 'trades' in near real time (within a day);
B) Have discussions - such as this

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Jay]

Thanks PT for this.
Under idea B) - I am interested to see how a relatively simple entry strategy pans out. Though as you said a bit of luck is involved re the SRX case, but that does not happen everyday or every week.

Have you defined your exit strategy (once in profit) yet and/or how you lift your stop such as % trailing stop or based on ATR?? Looks like a trailing stop and is this a fixed % say 15% or is it based on your maximum risk amount % at buy.
Are you using the same MA's for all trades and if so they look like a 30/50 and 150 or 200??

[Snow Leopard]

...
Are you using the same MA's for all trades and if so they look like a 30/50 and 150 or 200??

I can answer the lines on the charts question easily enough.
The lines are the same on all the charts and are just to give a sense of what is going on.
Apart from the line of daily closing prices with the daily high/low range there is:
In blue - a 16 day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) - a guide to the short term action;
In green - a 50 day EMA - as this seems to be popular on this forum;
In red - a 200 day EMA - also well liked round these parts;
In black - an ATR (Average True Range) like stop loss indicator (The maths on this may be a little different from the text-books).

Non of them should be taken as being the current stop-loss for the stock.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

...I am interested to see how a relatively simple entry strategy pans out. Though as you said a bit of luck is involved re the SRX case, but that does not happen everyday or every week.

Have you defined your exit strategy (once in profit) yet and/or how you lift your stop ...

Here is my current thoughts/beliefs - open to change

In trading the buy is of no-importance at all, the important thing is how you then conduct the trade and especially the sell.

So to back track quickly - a good entry system that gives you a high(er) probability of making a profitable trade is worth finding.

But however you go about finding an entry point you should enter with an initial stop-loss exit point defined.

You should also have an initial trading plan.

You should be willing to adapt the plan as time progresses and the actual price action happens with the aim of increasing your profits.

You should not be adapting your plan to avoid acting on a signalled exit - you should be disciplined.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

...Have you defined your exit strategy (once in profit) yet and/or how you lift your stop...

I have strategies, sort of :blush:, but it may be better to discuss them when a decision look like it needs to be made.
(At the moment things are going unnervingly well :ohmy:. Current portfolio value is $25,934.43 at EOD)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Jay]

Thanks PT.

yes agree the buy is not as important as a good exit strategy, that is not to say throw a dart at a board and buy that share as long as your exit strategy is sound you will be Ok - perhaps might try that :p
Again agree "You should not be adapting your plan to avoid acting on a signalled exit - you should be disciplined". That is the hard part, especially if you get a run of losses only to see the share price go up again within a day or so.

I am using ATR as the main rule for selling but with rules for a sudden drop in a day or alternatively it jumps up - e.g. doubles in price over a short period, will then sell some or move the stop - i.e. lessen the ATR multiple

Anyway, Good work PT, as said interested to see what happens .

[Baa_Baa]

.. snip ..
In black - an ATR (Average True Range) like stop loss indicator (The maths on this may be a little different from the text-books).
.. endsnip ..

Very interesting PT, thanks for your efforts on this thread.
What settings are you using for your ATR?

[Snow Leopard]

Trade #5:
Date: 20-Mar-2015
Buy 371 ASX.GXL (Greencross) for $3305.61 ($8.91 each)
brokerage of $15.37
total is $3320.98

Minimum No-Loss Sell Price: $8.995

Maximum Risk Amount: 6.8% of buy.
Risk Sell Price $8.30 (low close in Feb before the sudden spike); (loss $226.31)

7213

Peaked around $10.70 last august (not shown), then four month down trend to $7.28 and now three months of up, having survived that little bubble a month ago.

----------------
You may have spotted that I am currently buying each alternate trading day - working to a timetable as opposed to waiting patiently for opportunities - in the real world it is better to be patient and do nothing than buy for the sake of it.

Flicked through the charts till I found this - but wanted to avoid buying another 'setting new highs' job.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Very interesting PT, thanks for your efforts on this thread.
What settings are you using for your ATR?

Think of it as an EAPTTTR - an Exponentially Averaged Paper Tiger Type True Range.

The ones you see here involve a 32 day period and an exponent of 10.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[babymonster]

Thanks PT, I might try this myself and I will post on here as well..

[Jay]

I see you seem to be making up rules as you go along (not that you are not allowed to) The last 2 buys are not on the same rules as the first 2 or3 - that is making a higher high than in the last 12 months.

I know you did say and now for something completely different!

Just saying that's all :-)

[ratkin]

I find for weekly long term trend type trades and ATR OF 3.5 works best although 3 or 4 ok too

[nzspeak]

Do you regard 12.5% as a lot?

It is not illiquid - average daily turnover is about 4,500,000 shares (or AU$40M).

How would you describe it?

It was 'bought' because it is going up and will be 'sold' when it stops (however that is defined).

This thread is currently about trading for a profit and limiting the losses on route.

The fundamentals of any of the companies have not come in to it.



I would describe am illiquid market as one that doesn't trade in the same time zone, or close to it, as America. Unless you pick an absolute dog of a stock, a stock will go up if the US market went up over night. If you are trading, ignoring fundamentals "the fundamentals of any of the companies have not come in to it" then what happens overseas is paramount. Buy a stock with P/E over 30X in Australia you are playing Russian roulette. Your whole strategy is hoping that the US market went up and if it doesn't you aint going to be able to cash out because the market is closed. It's almost impossible to lose money in the the current market but that's not going to go for ever.

[ratkin]

I would describe am illiquid market as one that doesn't trade in the same time zone, or close to it, as America. Unless you pick an absolute dog of a stock, a stock will go up if the US market went up over night. If you are trading, ignoring fundamentals "the fundamentals of any of the companies have not come in to it" then what happens overseas is paramount. Buy a stock with P/E over 30X in Australia you are playing Russian roulette. Your whole strategy is hoping that the US market went up and if it doesn't you aint going to be able to cash out because the market is closed. It's almost impossible to lose money in the the current market but that's not going to go for ever.

A little over dramatic there.With that attitude you would never cross the road in the morning. If the US markets start to tumble there would normally plenty of time to exit the aussie stocks. The likes of Resmed are not going to roll over just because the US has a bad day. In 2008 there was plenty of time for an orderly exit for those who wanted one. 1987 was maybe a different story, however even that wouldnt have been a real disaster , given the massive runnups beforehand, unless of course you bought all the stocks just before the top.

A simple index filter addition to a trading system would prevent operating in most of the times when conditions were not appropriate for trend trading

ie no trading if xao below 13 week ma

Here is an equity chart to based on buying highest highs (52 weeks) with a filter (see straight line in 2008 when no trading) (Weekly charts)

7220

[Snow Leopard]

Trade #6:
Date: 24-Mar-2015
Buy 1417 ASX.HSN (Hansen Technologies) for $3301.61 ($2.33 each)
brokerage of $15.37
total is $3316.98

Minimum No-Loss Sell Price: $2.355

Maximum Risk Amount: 15.0% of buy.
Risk Sell Price $2.00 (why not?); (loss $498.35)

7233

Only arrived in the ASX300 on Monday. New 12 month high (to keep Jay happy).
----------------
nzspeak: An 'interesting' definition :mellow:.
ratkin: pretty charts :t_up:.

One more buy on Thursday and out of money unless we sell something.

Malaysian GP from Friday & THE FINAL on Sunday (Go the Black Caps, please :scared:)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

7234

Windup fees = 6 off Brokerage to sell all shares.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Trade #7:
Date: 26-Mar-2015
Buy 2324 ASX.CSV (CSG) for $3300.08 ($1.42 each)
brokerage of $15.37
total is $3315.45

Minimum No-Loss Sell Price: $1.435

Maximum Risk Amount: 8.4% of buy.
Risk Sell Price $1.30 (I be worried if it dropped below that price); (loss $278.88)

7240

Never heard of them until they started popping up in the new highs list. Do not even know what they do. The joys have buying things straight off the chart :mellow:.
----------------
Today was not totally a good day for the portfolio.
GXL and maybe SRX looking a bit iffy.

Hopefully McLaren are able to do something tomorrow in 1st & 2nd practice :D

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[nzspeak]

"A little over dramatic there.With that attitude you would never cross the road in the morning. If the US markets start to tumble there would normally plenty of time to exit the aussie stocks" I'm a cynical about traders. I don't really understand how someone in NZ can beat the market, when we get information late, when our market is closed? If George Soros resided in NZ he would still be screwed. I understand how $NZ currency traders could beat the market but stock traders?

[Snow Leopard]

So Friday GXL closed below the $8.30 initial stop loss we put up and never moved so today we sold them for $3,056.53 ($8.28 each) booking a loss of $264.45 on the trade.

Perhaps I should have had a looser stop, or not have bought at all :), but it is done and dusted now.

So time to look out for something else to buy.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger.

[Harvey Specter]

Are we going to get a monthly summary of:

Cash and opening positions balances
realised and unrealised gains/losses

[Snow Leopard]

Hate those "fakeouts". No way to tell the difference between that and a genuine breakout either, but thats why a trader must have a pre-determined exit strategy. I probably would have used the indicators rather than the $ amount and exited on the 26th March at $8.34 - $8.42.

The dollar amount is just to emphasize that we are limiting our losses on any one trade to a maximum (but often less) of 2% of our total portfolio value. This is currently $500 on our original $25,000.
In theory initial stop loss values are chosen for good reasons (yeah right!) and when changed are always raised, never lowered.

The primary problem with share prices is that on an individual basis some of them do not do what you want the to do:
You buy them and then they start to go down;
You sell them and then they turn around and climb again.
But some are more amenable.

So you win some and you lose some but if you win more on the winners than you lose on the losers then overall you are a winner.
:t_up:

Bought a new one for the experiment today, good grief is that the time? I will post it up later.

Bye for now & Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Trade #8:
Date: 01-Apr-2015
Buy 815 ASX.TNE (Technology One) for $3292.60 ($4.04 each, 1c less than expected !)
brokerage of $15.37
total is $3307.97

Minimum No-Loss Sell Price: $4.08

Maximum Risk Amount: 9.8% of buy.
Risk Sell Price $3.68 (about current green line); (loss $324.14)

7256

Hopefully continuing the uptrend after having a little breather.

----------------
Enjoy the long weekend.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

7257

So that is where we are after about 4 weeks.

Whilst it is going well it could just be 'beginners luck' and if those seven trades decide to turn then it would not look so flash.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

DYOR.

[Snow Leopard]

So here we are at stumps today:

Everything is essentially going up, some more than others.

7265

Off to sit on a beach, watch the waves, maybe sink an Anchor (http://www.anchorbeer.com/) or two

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

7297

Still nothing has done anything worthy of selling out on the technicals:
RMD was looking weak but has recovered to fight another day.
Neither HSN or TNE (both IT related?) are making us any real money - perhaps they should be sold and replaced with some other stock?
Only a couple of hundred dollars up on where we were on the 9th.


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[dingoNZ]

It is boring out there. Nothing happening. Nothing worth buying. Few sells though. BAL.AX the highlight.


unreal, wish I got a many as I could on the second of April when it fell out of bed. Long term prospects still a standout imo!

[Jay]

Any Updates here Mr Tiger??

[clip]

Was doing some reading on day-trading last week and found some of these sites/pages pretty interesting, e.g. this one on what to set your stoploss at - few places recommend you should be stopped out so total loss doesn't exceed 1% of your capital, and you should sell at a minimum 2% rise - following this formula you can get stopped out of 6/10 trades and still come out ahead
http://daytrading.about.com/od/daytradingmarketdata/fl/Minimum-Capital-Required-to-Start-Day-Trading-Stocks.htm

Also had a couple of good resources around best time to trade for daytraders, what charts to use (e.g. tick chart on screen as well as per minute)

what time frames to monitor: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10186-An-Experiment-In-Not-Losing-Too-Much-Money/page3
common intra-day stock market patterns (for me personally i'd more look at the daily charts of a stock I was planning to day trade, look at the per-minute daily chart for every day, and look for obvious correllations that you can reasonably expect to see repeated in that particular stock): http://daytrading.about.com/od/tradingsystems/fl/Common-Intra-Day-Stock-Market-Patterns.htm

interested on some of your thoughts and also how you're going tiger :D

[Snow Leopard]

Due to various commitments, unexpected circumstances, etc I have had to let this ball drop.

Sorry about that. :(

Unfortunately the calendar currently implies that you are not going to hear much from me until the end of August (this year).

A quick glance suggests that had I been on the pitch then the portfolio would have changed since my last post, RMD out for sure.
But neither do I want to, nor currently have the time to, retrospectively implement the trades.

See you later and
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

OK - My days of doing strange stuff in far off lands are over and I get to live in my own place again for a while (maybe).

So rather than pretend that I would have done lots of clever stuff and made millions in the last few months here is what we we did and where we are:

7583
(spot the minor errors)

Yesterday we sold the none performers: namely RMD, SPO & TNE at the closing prices and accepting a paper loss of $1516.

We keep ASB, CSV, HSN & SRX which have a paper gain of $4,332 between them.

Add in some paid dividends and pending dividends and our original $25,000 is currently worth $2,800 more.

Now to put that $10,000 of cash back into the market....

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

The theory that we settled for was, if I recall correctly, that we would buy stocks that set a new 12 month high on the previous trading day.

So the only three ASX300 constituents which have defied the current doom & gloom and penetrated the stratosphere on Friday were:

IPH - IPH - on the up since listing less than a year ago;

OML - Ooh! Media - also on the up since listing less than a year ago and with a silly name!;

UXC - UXC - a month into some sort of a break out.

Lets buy one. :D

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

So the plan to 'buy' one of IPH,OML or UXC on Monday went out the window.

I managed to hurt my back whilst tackling a tuna (very appropriate for a Tiger).
The embarrassing part is having to admit that the tuna was in a small (185g - net weight 130g) can :blush:.
But seriously the pain is not enjoyable. :t_down:

But yesterday the the same three all set new highs and we have just bought 1065 of OML at $3.10 each.

I will update the state of play (this post) later.

<update bit>

Trade #9:
Date: 09-Sep-2015
Buy 1065 ASX.OML (Ooh! Media) for $3301.50 ($3.10 each)
brokerage of $15.37
total is $3316.87

Minimum No-Loss Sell Price: $3.13

Maximum Risk Amount: 9.8% of buy.
Initial Stop Loss at $2.74 (a loss of $414.14)

7594

In the real world I really would not buy this as it has gone up rather quick, but and will try to keep a close watch on it.

</update bit>

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

I have fiddled with the format slightly:

7599

But we have had a good week despite being late on our buy of OML.

Currently sitting on a Gross [unrealised] wind-up profit of $3,206.21 or 12.81%.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

No buys and no sells.

CSV looking the weakest at the moment but not yet on the block.

RMD dividend now in the bank.

Slight increase in 'profit'
.
There was the intention to deploy some of that spare cash, but I never got a round tuit.
Maybe next week

7613

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

So today 509 VOC (Vocus Coms) were bought at $6.49 each.
They set a new 12 month high yesterday having been on the up for about a month and hopefully will continue upwards.

Of the rest ASB, CSV, HSN & OML have all moved up this week and SRX has slipped slightly. OML is now back to the original purchase price.

They all get to stay in the portfolio for a while yet subject, of course, to satisfactory price behaviour.

The SPO dividend would be paid today so is now cash.

And so the portfolio value has increased again this week, even with the discovery that I was double counting pending dividends in the Windup Total (what a silly billy I can be :ohmy:).

7623

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: One week I will remember to change that report date :)

[Snow Leopard]

Those VOC we bought on Friday are gone at $5.79 each.

Strange that even when running a theoretical portfolio I can still affect a real ASX300 share :mad ;:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Bought 829 ISD @ $3.985

Details & weekly wrap-up tomorrow

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Not such a good week last week as VOC dived into the sell zone two trading days after buying it and following the rules it was sold...

...and then in bounced back some of course:mad ;:.

So here we was:
7644
A few dollars poorer.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

More down than up :(

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/Experiment1/EXP-20151009.png

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Sold the SRX today: 174 @ $32.01 so $5569.74 less $15.37 brokerage

Gross profit: $2,233.00.

Now have $8836.27 cash - must buy something new :t_up:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Are those dividend adjusted prices PT

[Snow Leopard]

Are those dividend adjusted prices PT - :p :p :p

best wishes
paper tiger

[Jay]

Just out of curiosity, pray may we ask what the selling criteria is/was????

[Snow Leopard]

The SRX chart buy to sell:

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/Experiment1/ASX-SRX-20151012.png

Ignore all the EMA's and pretty colour bands (sorry should have turned them off before snipping the image) and just look at the Mid-August to yesterday bit:
That to my eye is essentially down.

On a longer time frame it still looks OK.

But of the portfolio this is the weakest and I 'needed' to sell something.

Why?

Because when I buy I have a target minimum buy value of $3300 (plus brokerage) and how much cash did I have?

$3281.90.
So near and yet so far. Makes you weep :crying:.

So it is gone and I can go shopping again.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Jay]

Thanks PT -
Good on you for sticking with the rules/plan - sort of - title says it all really:-)

Best Wishes
Jay

[Snow Leopard]

https://youtu.be/6aebUrI-WYQ

In real life I would probably never invest in a gold stock.
But the benefit of running an experimental portfolio based on technical signals is that we can 'live' the dream.

Hit a new high 1 year yesterday, retraced today, but what the heck.

So bought: 989 AQG @ $3.34 + $15.37 brokerage = $3318.61.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

A lot more down than I would like this week :crying::

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/Experiment1/EXP-20151016.png

As mentioned in previous posts SRX sold so enough cash to buy something new:
which turned out to be AQG; I hope you liked the music :mellow:.

Still enough cash to buy a seventh share and have change for a nice meal out ;).

Of the rest (go find your own charts if you're interested):
ASB - been heading down for the last two weeks but still in a (nearly 2 year) uptrend.
CSV - also went down the fortnight and otherwise been going nowhere. Need to ask why it has portfolio room.
HSN - been down, coming back up, not in danger yet.
ISD - flat last week hopefully pausing for breath before resuming upwards trajectory.
OML - disappointing side-wards shuffle since purchase, could be culled.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Slight improvement last week:

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/Experiment1/EXP-20151023.png

Should buy something with that spare cash :).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

I am giving up on this as I have not been putting enough effort into it for it to be worthwhile even for me.

So here is where we finished up for the end of October, and assume we sold everything at closing prices:

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/Experiment1/EXP-20151030.png

We will take our theoretical profit of $2,876.24, pay our theoretical taxes [Note: You need to have your Australian Tax Return in this weekend] and spend the profits on a theoretical holiday.


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[banter]

I am giving up on this as I have not been putting enough effort into it for it to be worthwhile even for me.

So here is where we finished up for the end of October, and assume we sold everything at closing prices:

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/Experiment1/EXP-20151030.png

We will take our theoretical profit of $2,876.24, pay our theoretical taxes [Note: You need to have your Australian Tax Return in this weekend] and spend the profits on a theoretical holiday.


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger


This experiment made over 11% in six months in a bad market at a bad time, with no significant drawdown at all, all using simple trend-following and money management ideas.
Very interesting and thanks for doing this.

[AppleCrumble]

Subtitled: Loose Trading Loses Money. (4 jonu :)))

So this is concerned with buying stocks with the intent of selling them at a higher price later in order to make a profit.
In a word: Trading Long. (OK, in two words).

Buys are limited to stocks in the ASX300 at the time of purchase.
The initial 'cash' for this experiment is $25,000, which creates the first set of problems - it is not a lot of money.

Among the rules of trading are that you:
- never risk more than 2% of your capital on any one stock;
- have diversity in your trades;
- cut your loses;
- let your profits run.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger


Why is the first problem - it is not a lot of money. ?

Is this because 25K is not that much and the fees would eat into any gains comapred with a bigger investment of 100K or more?

[Snow Leopard]

Why is the first problem - it is not a lot of money. ?

Is this because 25K is not that much and the fees would eat into any gains comapred with a bigger investment of 100K or more?

Yes.

The $15.37 brokerage I used on my buy & sells is the actual amount I get charged by my Australian Super Fund for trades up to $10,000 (then it is a constant %). So if we traded larger amounts then the % lost in fees would be less, and every cent counts towards the profit.

However we had a rule not to risk more than 2% ($500) of our capital on any one trade and given that you have to allow some room for the SP to decrease after buying it then I ended up with an initial trade size of $3,300 ($500 being 15% of that).

I choose the $25,000 fairly arbitrarily.
If you have less you have to work with that;
If you have more, lucky you :).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger