CBL Insurance IPO

[GoldenStag]

CBL Insurance next IPO...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11416718

[Biscuit]

Looks pretty interesting, they have impressive profit growth over the last five years.

[GoldenStag]

Looks pretty interesting, they have impressive profit growth over the last five years.

Yep, with that sort of financial history, they'll have us queuing around the block for the IPO (so long as they keep their heads and price it correctly, rather than greedily - we don't need another hirepool, Arvida etc)

[GoldenStag]

Herald article about Fliway and CBL...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11418803 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11418803)

[Marilyn Munroe]

While not a reflection on CBL this corner of the insurance industry has in the past proved to be problematic for small companies operating in Aoteroa.

http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/1966/disasters-and-mishaps-financial/page-4

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[GoldenStag]

Looks like it is back on again...
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11494999

[trader_jackson]

It is now on!

http://www.business.govt.nz/disclose/fmc-register/viewInstance/view.html?id=0b027646737e9b074ab16a7ffcc2a4a49dd22 238daccbf4b&_timestamp=5244007786704191
(http://www.business.govt.nz/disclose/fmc-register/viewInstance/view.html?id=0b027646737e9b074ab16a7ffcc2a4a49dd22 238daccbf4b&_timestamp=5244007786704191)
Looks pretty good to me... thoughts?

[kiora]

It is now on!

http://www.business.govt.nz/disclose/fmc-register/viewInstance/view.html?id=0b027646737e9b074ab16a7ffcc2a4a49dd22 238daccbf4b&_timestamp=5244007786704191
(http://www.business.govt.nz/disclose/fmc-register/viewInstance/view.html?id=0b027646737e9b074ab16a7ffcc2a4a49dd22 238daccbf4b&_timestamp=5244007786704191)
Looks pretty good to me... thoughts?

I'll be looking closely at it TJ
From what I'm hearing sounds like a goody :)

[GoldenStag]

Is anyone looking at this IPO?

Doesn't seem to be much chatter here on this one...?

share offer website here:
http://shareoffer.cblcorporation.co.nz/

[macduffy]

I'll be having a look although I regard insurance companies' financials as a bit of a black box, coloured perhaps by one of my earliest encounters with the industry. Luckily, I had no financial interest in the matter, myself!

http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/1966/disasters-and-mishaps-financial/page-4

[Turboman]

My Broker said he heard there has been strong offshore demand and that the priorty offer is now well oversubscribed. Looks cheap at 8.0x PE and pays a good yield, could be worth a punt.

I also found an article in the Australian Financial Review.

CBL priority pool oversubscribed
Kiwi insurer CBL Corporation's priority pool is oversubscribed as it seeks to raise NZ$132 million for a dual listing next month.
The priority pool is open to CBL's close business associates and partners, and was set at $10 million with the ability to take oversubscriptions.
CBL, advised by UBS, Forsyth Barr and Bancorp, will launch an institutional bookbuild on Thursday.
CBL, the largest and oldest credit surety provider in New Zealand, expects to list at between NZ$1.45 and NZ$1.85 a share, and raise between NZ$123 million and NZ$132 million. This will indicate a market cap of up to NZ$389 million.
The company, which sources a large chunk of its revenue from Europe, plans to use the money it raises for organic growth and branching out into new lines of business.
Management is expected to retain around 25 per cent of CBL's stock after it is listed.
Street Talk revealed that Forsyth Barr analysts had valued CBL at $NZ385 million to $NZ450 million in pre-marketing research.

[GoldenStag]

The priority pool is only $10m. I note that Forbarr has farmed it out to FNZC like they did with Fliway when they didn't get takeup and that was a disaster. I was very interested jn CBL but got a bit scared away by a) Forbarr being involved and b) not much interest here on Sharetrader.

That said, all dual listing IPOs in the last three years have done well on list day if i recall correctly.

GS

[kiora]

Allocation was scaled back by 50 %,due to demand from Australian brokers ?
Allocated at lower end $1.55
PE undemanding
Anyone else in?
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1509/S00624/cbl-successfully-concludes-ipo-bookbuild.htm

[Halebop]

I find them quite exposed to property construction cycles and the French market and legislation in particular. Good profits but too much concentration to be prudent for an insurance company.

[macduffy]

I swallowed my doubts and applied for a few. Will see how many fewer are allocated!

[clip]

Is it possible to apply through asb securities/if I don't have a broker, or is there a place the public can apply for shares directly?

[kiora]

Is it possible to apply through asb securities/if I don't have a broker, or is there a place the public can apply for shares directly?

Sorry they are already allocated clip

[macduffy]

If the talk of more self regulation in the building industry results in more performance bonds being issued, CBL will be a big winner!

[clip]

What are people's thoughts on buying on the market on listing - this is one stock i'm quite keen to get a hold of a few early. I imagine (with little research as yet or many years in the market, nor knowledge of) there will be an increase on listing followed by some stag selling - anyone care to voice their opinion on this and check back later to see if they are right?
(I will be DYOR'ing and not holding any grudges if my entry is astray to the posters's opinions I generally tend to keep an eye on :) )

[trader_jackson]

I have heard things regarding some of the managers/directors pasts... lets just say I think they are "questionable" which is the reason why I'm not investing, unfortunately, because I did initially like it.

I am also a little worried why CBL are so "hell bent" to get itself listed while they know it is a volatile/tough market... if it was such a great company why not wait till early next year (only a couple months away...) when things have stabilized and therefore are able to receive a higher price and more capital (Yes I know they say "they are looking for long term investors and don't care about short term volatility" but this just doesn't wash with me...)

Anyway that's just some food for thought, because I don't "have a good feeling" about CBL (as a result of the above), I'm out.

[kiora]

What are people's thoughts on buying on the market on listing - this is one stock i'm quite keen to get a hold of a few early. I imagine (with little research as yet or many years in the market, nor knowledge of) there will be an increase on listing followed by some stag selling - anyone care to voice their opinion on this and check back later to see if they are right?
(I will be DYOR'ing and not holding any grudges if my entry is astray to the posters's opinions I generally tend to keep an eye on :) )

$2 by end yr but I've been mistakenly over exuberant before :)

[macduffy]

CBL gets a mention in Roger Montgomery's newsletter.

http://rogermontgomery.com/its-good-to-be-small/?utm_source=Trending+on+Livewire+%22The+Morning+Wi re%22&utm_campaign=242bfedb3d-Trending+on+Livewire&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1911ffeed5-242bfedb3d-82636925&mc_cid=242bfedb3d&mc_eid=9f402457b0

[Hectorplains]

I have heard things regarding some of the managers/directors pasts... lets just say I think they are "questionable" which is the reason why I'm not investing, unfortunately, because I did initially like it.

I am also a little worried why CBL are so "hell bent" to get itself listed while they know it is a volatile/tough market... if it was such a great company why not wait till early next year (only a couple months away...) when things have stabilized and therefore are able to receive a higher price and more capital (Yes I know they say "they are looking for long term investors and don't care about short term volatility" but this just doesn't wash with me...)

Anyway that's just some food for thought, because I don't "have a good feeling" about CBL (as a result of the above), I'm out.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/9249149/Workers-await-5-7m-ruling

[macduffy]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/9249149/Workers-await-5-7m-ruling

Above article is dated 6 October 2013. Has there been any update/verdict?

[Hectorplains]

Above article is dated 6 October 2013. Has there been any update/verdict?

Three cases against them in the article. They lost the judgment on the first, the second was settled out of court and the third is still before Court (?)

[trader_jackson]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11528210

Well today's the day... judging from the few buy orders in as at 9:27, it doesn't look like there will be a huge bounce, although there is only one sell order in at $2 currently... should do ok I suppose as market conditions the previous few days have been quite positive.

(disclosure: I did not buy any due to various concerns I have, particularly with management, as stated previously, but as with every new listing, I am watching with interest)

[GoldenStag]

I hope it does well. The IPO market is a bit lonely at the moment and it would be good to see a success.

Dual listings usually do quite well.

I didn't buy any this time as I have sold out of all my shares now for safety, but would like to see CBL do well.

This interview with Peter Harris in particular rang very hollow:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11525425
He had to default to the "long-term investors can see right through the current volatility" type statements, which never sit very well with me, and are too sound-bitey and vacuous in my opinion

[whatsup]

Listed today now $1.72 .

[macduffy]

Up 14% on the placement price. I'm happy with that.

[Master98]

what's up? sp is rocketing up today! the new UK acquisition is great one?

[trader_jackson]

Forsyth have given it a price target of $2.17 (today), that is what is up I think

[Master98]

Forsyth have given it a price target of $2.17 (today), that is what is up I think
good find t-j:t_up:

[melsmith90210]

ouch Trader Jackson....costly mistake not getting in at the IPO....

[macduffy]

ouch Trader Jackson....costly mistake not getting in at the IPO....

Treat it as a gentle reminder that not all IPO's are created equal.

;)

[trader_jackson]

Its been a good performer hasn't it?? Well done to all the holders :)

[melsmith90210]

Excellent announcement and good to see a company over achieve their listing forecasts.....

https://nzx.com/companies/CBL/announcements/278507

[kiora]

Excellent announcement and good to see a company over achieve their listing forecasts.....

https://nzx.com/companies/CBL/announcements/278507

Well done CBL !!! :)PE 8.7?

[kiora]

Cbl ccvi 27 /2.42 + 15/0.564 =11.16 + 26 = 37 ?

[kiora]

Cbl ccvi 27 /2.42 + 15/0.564 =11.16 + 26 = 37 ?

Woow,maybe ccvi does work!

[Snow Leopard]

Well done CBL !!! :)PE 8.7?

You got me diving out of my sick basket for the accounts there :scared:.

Earnings is quoted at 20.88cps so the P/E would be 11.73 at today's close of $2.45, which if this level of profit (or more) is sustainable then it would appear to be a bit undervalued (Notice words like 'if' and 'would' and 'appear' and 'bit' there before you get too carried away).

I am definitely going to give the entire 147 page announcement a proper look over (accounts first and then the frippery) but superficially it looks good to me.

Usual stuff. Do Your Own Research & Beware of Tigers Selling Insurance

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

...I am definitely going to give the entire 147 page announcement a proper look over (accounts first and then the frippery) but superficially it looks good to me...

So on Page 98 - Note 26 Contingent liabilities (many pages still to go ;))

"Contingent liabilities are not recognised in the SOFP1 but are disclosed where settlement is less than probable but more than remote. If settlement becomes probable, a provision is recognised"

Made me smile :D.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS "At the year-end there were no contingent liabilities (2014: nil)." :t_up:

1Statement Of Financial Position

[kiora]

So on Page 98 - Note 26 Contingent liabilities (many pages still to go ;))

"Contingent liabilities are not recognised in the SOFP1 but are disclosed where settlement is less than probable but more than remote. If settlement becomes probable, a provision is recognised"

Made me smile :D.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS "At the year-end there were no contingent liabilities (2014: nil)." :t_up:

1Statement Of Financial Position

Its an insurance company after all that works on probabilities PT :)

[Snow Leopard]

Research all done and dusted for now

Findings:

Should have bought them when they listed - I would have a tidy paper profit by now.

Missed the day the results actually came out as I was on an airplane (AirAsia X, not Air New Zealand).

They have an office here in Kuala Lumpur! Not far from the Petronas Towers and the KLCC branch of NZ Curry House (http://www.nzcurryhouse.com/). By a quirk of fate I walked by them today having been to listen to the Malaysian Philharmonic Orchestra (http://mpo.com.my/) (Sibelius: Symphony No 1; Nielsen: Flute Concerto; Liszt: Hungarian Rhapsody for Orchestra No 1).

The 20.88cps earning is based on a weighted 170M shares and not the end of year 220M, which would give about 16.1cps.
But by the time you have manipulated the numbers for the one-offness of the IPO you can accept 20cps as a reasonable picture of where they were.

Cash flow has been good.

The figures for Assetinsure since acquisition look like an outlier which bolstered the result significantly.

They have cash to use for more acquisitions & expansion, so if they do it mostly right then generally they should be able to grow profits over the next few years by say 10%.

Guess cps of $0.21 for FY16, and a few years of averaging 10% growth then I would value them at $2.60 now looking at $2.74 at year end.

So, not a convincing buy for me.
I will try to remember to keep an eye on them. I might buy a few, in case they surprise on the upside.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[kiora]

A nice clean and solid result.Well done CBL. A growth story with undemanding metrics
https://nzx.com/files/attachments/234678.pdf

[Snow Leopard]

Thought I should mention that I bought some of these and was about 5% in profit at close yesterday, plus I have the dividend (about which there is a long story and involves Computershare receiving the Wrath of the Tiger).

Feeling a little more positive about their future and I would probably buy some more but the sell side is ridiculously thin.

As Always Please Do Your Own Research.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Grunter]

Have just become interested in this stock - anyone have any reliable ways of valuing Insurance companies? I've heard Price/Book ratios are a good rule of thumb:

P/B = $588,735,000/$193,732,000 = 3 , which is quite high, so would require further analysis to tease out the details.

Also noted briefly that the claims ratio is below 50% of GWP. The company is new and in growth mode, and with Insurance companies, the claims ratio will be much, much higher over the long term (90%???) as the claims catch up, so we should expect this to grow quite substantially over the next 3 years.

[macduffy]

If you ever find that good rule of thumb, Grunter, let me know please. I've been interested ever since Standard Insurance went west in the 1960's - unauthorised dealings by their Sydney manager caused their downfall - and have dabbled in insurance shares in a minor way over the years. Currently have a small holding in TWR. It's still largely a black book to me - seems to depend on assumptions, esoteric ways of valuing liabilities - contingent and otherwise - and the price of fish! Just as an aside, as you are probably aware CBL isn't your typical insurance company being much more involved in perfomance guarantee type business and less in property insurance. I hold a few from IPO.

[kiora]

Have just become interested in this stock - anyone have any reliable ways of valuing Insurance companies? I've heard Price/Book ratios are a good rule of thumb:

P/B = $588,735,000/$193,732,000 = 3 , which is quite high, so would require further analysis to tease out the details.

Also noted briefly that the claims ratio is below 50% of GWP. The company is new and in growth mode, and with Insurance companies, the claims ratio will be much, much higher over the long term (90%???) as the claims catch up, so we should expect this to grow quite substantially over the next 3 years.

It is not the typical insurance company though Grunter
http://cblcorporation.co.nz/about-us/our-group/
I strongly suspect claims ratio will not go higher anytime soon.My understanding is CBL takes no risk.All risk is farmed out?It generally avoids exposure to natural perils or disaster risk
They have actually been around since 1973 with 40 years of experience.
http://www.4-traders.com/CBL-CORPORATION-LTD-26405978/consensus/

[macduffy]

My understanding is CBL takes no risk.All risk is farmed out?

Not entirely. They "share" the risk with re-insurers. But then, don't all insurers?

[kiora]

Not entirely. They "share" the risk with re-insurers. But then, don't all insurers?

It generally avoids exposure to natural perils or disaster risk
Many of its products CBL has the ability to recover claims from insured counter parties.Whatever that means :mellow:

[Grunter]

It generally avoids exposure to natural perils or disaster risk
Many of its products CBL has the ability to recover claims from insured counter parties.Whatever that means :mellow:

CBL provide Surety Bonds to construction risks (I think). So if there was an event that caused the bond to trigger, CBL may be able to subrogate against the counter party that caused the event, presumably through their professional indemnity insurer.

CBL operate predominantly as an insurer, with some MGA (Managing General Agent i.e Broker with underwriting authority) activities. MGAs bear no risk, but Insurers do.

[heisenberg]

Ratings upgrade for CBL:

"The Auckland based company, which successfully listed on the New Zealand and
Australian stock exchanges last year, saw its financial strength rating
upgraded to A- (Excellent) from B++ (Good) and the issuer credit rating
upgraded to a- from bbb. The outlook for each rating remains stable."

Should open up opportunities in SE Asia and Australia

Good company to be involved with IMO.

[Snow Leopard]

...Good company to be involved with IMO.

I concur, but I am bound to say that :D

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: hold

[Joshuatree]

CBL Corporation plans acquisition of SFS (https://www.nzx.com/companies/CBL/announcements/284467)

$151 mill strategic aqcuisition; no cap raise.
My buy will be left dangling.

[kiora]

Well this gets a bit of a lift
https://nzx.com/files/attachments/238570.pdf

[Joshuatree]

Yeah a Turbo expanding company maker . Luckily my buy got hit courtesy of the Brits.:D

[kiora]

Yeah a Turbo expanding company maker . Luckily my buy got hit courtesy of the Brits.:D

Good stuff JT

[Snow Leopard]

Rising volume and price, both on the NZX and the ASX.

I think that is a good thing.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[kiora]

Rising volume and price, both on the NZX and the ASX.

I think that is a good thing.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Yes PT it looks like someone/s been accumulating for a while.Pleased I went in reasonably heavy handed way way back.
PS I don't understand why you would want AIR either :confused:

[Joshuatree]

As one share sinks another rises to a new high $3 and few on offer..Weighing machine in action.
On track with strong growth opportunities including brexxit
Some Foreign exchange losses

CBL Corporation Limited 2016 Half Year Results (https://www.nzx.com/companies/CBL/announcements/287916)

[heisenberg]

Up over 6% today on the back of this announcement, impressive year

[Snow Leopard]

I was hoping for a little better than a first glance reveals but I will live with it.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[kiora]

I was hoping for a little better than a first glance reveals but I will live with it.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Teleconference was upbeat but I can't remember specifics except + upside to come.Even Britexit should be +ve for them:mellow:

[Grunter]

It generally avoids exposure to natural perils or disaster risk
Many of its products CBL has the ability to recover claims from insured counter parties.Whatever that means :mellow:

CBL is a liability insurer, which means that they are exposed to long-tail risk, the most feared exposure in the insurance industry, and portfolio contagion, meaning that because they write a specialist area of cover, they are exposed to aggregation within their portfolio of a specific type of risk, which could eventuate from left field on a widespread scale.

Recovering from counter parties means subrogating against the contractors/project managers/construction firms that will have professional indemnity cover for their liabilities. Thus CBL should be able to recover some of their costs of paying claims from third parties.

[kiora]

CBL is a liability insurer, which means that they are exposed to long-tail risk, the most feared exposure in the insurance industry, and portfolio contagion, meaning that because they write a specialist area of cover, they are exposed to aggregation within their portfolio of a specific type of risk, which could eventuate from left field on a widespread scale.

Recovering from counter parties means subrogating against the contractors/project managers/construction firms that will have professional indemnity cover for their liabilities. Thus CBL should be able to recover some of their costs of paying claims from third parties.

Is the risk for short,6 months,1-2 years or an extended period of time?
Someone accumulating again today.

[Grunter]

Is the risk for short,6 months,1-2 years or an extended period of time?
Someone accumulating again today.


Long-tail risk can be years or even decades.

Asbestosis is a prime example of a long-tail risk - taking upwards of 30 years to manifest.

[kiora]

Long-tail risk can be years or even decades.

Asbestosis is a prime example of a long-tail risk - taking upwards of 30 years to manifest.

Thanks GT v.interesting

[Leftfield]

CBL is a liability insurer, which means that they are exposed to long-tail risk, the most feared exposure in the insurance industry, and portfolio contagion, meaning that because they write a specialist area of cover, they are exposed to aggregation within their portfolio of a specific type of risk, which could eventuate from left field on a widespread scale.
.

Not guilty your honour! I personally have no plans to expose the aggregation of CBL's business (other than watching this share carefully)! ;)

[Snow Leopard]

Looks like someone has shuffled 1,150,000 shares from the ASX to the NZX or vice versa.

Otherwise volume is low but the share price is reaching for the stars.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[moka]

Looks like someone has shuffled 1,150,000 shares from the ASX to the NZX or vice versa.

Otherwise volume is low but the share price is reaching for the stars.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Thanks for that info Paper Tiger and sharing your knowledge.
I sold my few today because I saw the buyers lining up, and I didn’t want them to be disappointed. I wish I had more to sell. Almost everything else in my portfolio is going down so I had to make the most of the opportunity.

[Snow Leopard]

Thanks for that info Paper Tiger and sharing your knowledge.
I sold my few today because I saw the buyers lining up, and I didn’t want them to be disappointed. I wish I had more to sell. Almost everything else in my portfolio is going down so I had to make the most of the opportunity.

So you are selling the ones going up and keeping the ones going down?

I do not understand.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[kiora]

Looks like someone has shuffled 1,150,000 shares from the ASX to the NZX or vice versa.

Otherwise volume is low but the share price is reaching for the stars.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Speeding ticket ?:mellow:

[heisenberg]

Capital raising, shares on offer at 3.45c
CBL up 50% over the last 6 months in my portfolio, so wouldn't mind picking up a few more

[peat]

A rising Insurance company raising money
Tower going to the wire....

Hmmmmmm

[macduffy]

I'd be very surprised if there's any connection. CBL and Tower are two very different types of animals.

[kiora]

Acquiring shell co. in USA
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/cbl-raise-63-mln-accelerate-expansion-plans-b-194841?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+30+S eptember+2016

[peat]

Yes Macduff I realise that but if its a different beast then its within the same genus ;+)

The shell co acquisition is only 6 M so it might not affect their ability to move on Tower. I'm only wondering about this , there is no real evidence , just a possibility . If not them, then someone else pretty soon I reckon.

[Snow Leopard]

Got my SPP documentation by email today, and what a wonderful surprise, I can email the signed acceptance form back!

Still have to 'print' the thing out though.

But I believe we may be on the cusp of a digital revolution here.
Something I can tell the grandcubs about in years to come.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[kiora]

Got my SPP documentation by email today, and what a wonderful surprise, I can email the signed acceptance form back!

Still have to 'print' the thing out though.

But I believe we may be on the cusp of a digital revolution here.
Something I can tell the grandcubs about in years to come.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

They learned it from Trilogy:)

[Joshuatree]

$3 mill spp will be scaled to nearly oblivion (mkt cap re $892 mill)so I'm not selling any in advance and how long will my funds be tied up before i get them back minus a handful of extra shares.

[Joshuatree]

Tied up until 28th Oct at the earliest.

[macduffy]

They've got my money, too, Jt. Like you, I expect most of it to be returned - but then it's not earning a lot of interest at present anyway!

[heisenberg]

New 52 week high and broken through $4

[kiora]

Over-subscription by 111%.Oh well we will pick up a few more
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?T=TeVKITGAvyAYAGyIWcYdWD&E=NZSE&S=CBL&N=291518

[macduffy]

Over-subscription of 111% doesn't sound too excessive. Now we'll see how scaling back applications " on a proportionate basis in accordance with the number of CBL shares held by the Applicant" works out in practice.

[Hugo]

So the kids had 1,750 shares each. Subscribed for maximum each. Got 306 each. So 306/1750 = .175 ish.

[macduffy]

That's an interesting way of expressing it, Hugo.

17.5% of original holding - in my language.

:)

[Hugo]

Yep. Think I spend too long at the computer - at times. :-)

[Joshuatree]

Looks like i got 100% subscription!!.Not looking so great at this moment in time.

[kiora]

Looks like i got 100% subscription!!.Not looking so great at this moment in time.

Me too,scaled according to our shareholdings.I was waiting for CBL/Computershare to let me know.I only found out by logging on to Computershare to check shareholding when the refund wasn't deposited in to bank account. Vv slack notification IMO

[macduffy]

Just a trivial point, but does anyone know where the "CBL" name comes from? Credit Bonds Ltd/Liability or something like that is my guess?

[Snow Leopard]

Just a trivial point, but does anyone know where the "CBL" name comes from? Credit Bonds Ltd/Liability or something like that is my guess?

Contractors Bonding Limited

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[macduffy]

Nice one, Tiger! Treat yourself to a Friday drink at sundown!

:)

[macduffy]

Apologies in advance if this sounds like a blatant ramp. I read a recent article in the AFR sounding out various fund managers/brokers on their best long and short picks for 2017. One of them - sorry, the name escapes me - picked CBL as his/her best long, mentioning inter alia that they are NZ's biggest exporter of financial services. I'm not sure that there's much competition in that particular regard but if the idea gains a bit of traction amongst Aussie investors we may well see further upside to the CBL shareprice. There, I said this may sound like a ramp so can anyone can verify the article?

Disc: Yes, I'm a holder.

[Antipodean]

Apologies in advance if this sounds like a blatant ramp. I read a recent article in the AFR sounding out various fund managers/brokers on their best long and short picks for 2017. One of them - sorry, the name escapes me - picked CBL as his/her best long, mentioning inter alia that they are NZ's biggest exporter of financial services. I'm not sure that there's much competition in that particular regard but if the idea gains a bit of traction amongst Aussie investors we may well see further upside to the CBL shareprice. There, I said this may sound like a ramp so can anyone can verify the article?

Disc: Yes, I'm a holder.

It is this article - but it is paywalled.

http://www.afr.com/markets/best-small-cap-ideas-from-australian-fund-managers-for-2017-20161218-gtdln7#

[Hectorplains]

It is this article - but it is paywalled.

http://www.afr.com/markets/best-small-cap-ideas-from-australian-fund-managers-for-2017-20161218-gtdln7#

1. Google "best-small-cap-ideas-from-australian-fund-managers-for-2017"
2. Find article in google search and click on the small green down facing arrow.
3. Click on "cached' box that comes up.
4. Click "text only version"
5. Enjoy.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks but Ive still hit the paywall.

[macduffy]

Thanks but Ive still hit the paywall.

Try one of the other headings for this article - it seems to appear in various guises!

Thanks, Hectorplains. Sure beats reading under time pressure in the library and then trying to remember the salient points!

:)

[klid]

Thanks but Ive still hit the paywall.

Interesting paywall, not much of a wall, the content is too long to post here but I put it on my website:
https://stocktastic.co.nz/2017-small-cap-aus

Sorry the formatting is a bit off.

[kiora]

Interesting paywall, not much of a wall, the content is too long to post here but I put it on my website:
https://stocktastic.co.nz/2017-small-cap-aus

Sorry the formatting is a bit off.

Thanks Klid.Interesting

[Joshuatree]

Any research recently by Forsyth Barr or anyone one else that anyone can share a summary of? Thanks in advance; am holding.

[suse]

1 giant trade this morning..... i hope there is good news coming

[kiora]

1 giant trade this morning..... i hope there is good news coming

Your hope is my wish.Another 4m shares through today.I like(Percy likes?) this bit "The stock trades on just 10 times forward earnings despite strong double-digit growth and greater than 25 per cent returns on equity.

[macduffy]

Would it be an "on-sale" of shares resulting from the result acquisition?

Just a thought.

[kiora]

Would it be an "on-sale" of shares resulting from the result acquisition?

Just a thought.

Maybe but certainly not a sell down.

[Snow Leopard]

...Guess cps of $0.21 for FY16, and a few years of averaging 10% growth then I would value them at $2.60 now looking at $2.74 at year end.

So, not a convincing buy for me.
I will try to remember to keep an eye on them. I might buy a few, in case they surprise on the upside.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

If I take their underlying earnings figure at face value and do a weighted EPS on that I can get $0.209 which would be on target.

But I must admit that I am 'a little disappointed' with this result at first glance (and with it being reporting season I am mainly doing first glances).

Will properly ponder over the accounts later

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[NZSilver]

why such the hit in share price?

[macduffy]

why such the hit in share price?

Market was expecting a better result?

But relax, Chairman has bought another 25,000 shares on market.

:)

[kiora]

Market was expecting a better result?

But relax, Chairman has bought another 25,000 shares on market.

:)

Very,very relaxed thanks. Onwards & upwards

[Snow Leopard]

I actually bought a few [more] CBL today and I am already three dollars something in profit on them!

This was after doing a revised valuation and coming up with a current value north of the share price, it came out, by coincidence, at three dollars something, but foolish me managed to delete the calculations instead of saving them.

More precisely I can remember that my one year forward value was three dollars thirty something.

Perhaps the most noticeable item in the results is the 'Foreign exchange translation adjustment' in the profit and loss which this year was a $9M8 loss and last year was a $3M9 profit (both pre-tax).

It would seem that we can expect potentially wild swings year on year purely as a result of currency movements.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[kiora]

I actually bought a few [more] CBL today and I am already three dollars something in profit on them!

This was after doing a revised valuation and coming up with a current value north of the share price, it came out, by coincidence, at three dollars something, but foolish me managed to delete the calculations instead of saving them.

More precisely I can remember that my one year forward value was three dollars thirty something.

Perhaps the most noticeable item in the results is the 'Foreign exchange translation adjustment' in the profit and loss which this year was a $9M8 loss and last year was a $3M9 profit (both pre-tax).

It would seem that we can expect potentially wild swings year on year purely as a result of currency movements.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Thanks for update PT.Just looking at changes to shareholdings lately.4 traders http://www.4-traders.com/CBL-CORPORATION-LTD-26405978/company 219,677,168 shares /vs Nz companies
https://www.companiesoffice.govt.nz/companies/app/ui/pages/companies/3888838/shareholdings 235778031
Am I looking at same company?/OR How often does 4 traders update ???
Some reasonable volumes traded some days

[Snow Leopard]

Thanks for update PT.Just looking at changes to shareholdings lately.4 traders http://www.4-traders.com/CBL-CORPORATION-LTD-26405978/company 219,677,168 shares /vs Nz companies
https://www.companiesoffice.govt.nz/companies/app/ui/pages/companies/3888838/shareholdings 235778031
Am I looking at same company?/OR How often does 4 traders update ???
Some reasonable volumes traded some days

If you want an accurate current shares issued number then the NZX website is generally the best source.

So for CBL [https://nzx.com/markets/NZSX/securities/CBL] you will see three columns labelled Activity, Performance, Fundamental.

In the Fundamental column of the five rows, usually, the fifth, Shares Issued, is correct.

You can not rely on any of the other four columns at all.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[macduffy]

Market was expecting a better result?

But relax, Chairman has bought another 25,000 shares on market.

:)

.... and the shareprice back up 6.1% today.

:)

[macduffy]

.... and the shareprice back up 6.1% today.

:)

And a further 5.6% today to $3.40.

Can we conclude that last month's sharp fall was an over-reaction, caused, at least in part, by a too hasty analysis of the company's results? Or is that wishfull thinking on my part? I hold.

[BlackPeter]

And a further 5.6% today to $3.40.

Can we conclude that last month's sharp fall was an over-reaction, caused, at least in part, by a too hasty analysis of the company's results? Or is that wishfull thinking on my part? I hold.

Bought in last week for (just) under $3 on my brokers recommendation. So far quite pleased with my investment ;).

[Joshuatree]

Seems so. But also a vey schizo mkt atm with many stocks with good results being sold off , esp in the smaller caps. As a friend pointed out this selldown and PE compression starts in the smalls and can spread to the larger caps as a risk off sentiment spreads and volatility /mkt correction tensions mount.

[Snow Leopard]

Already back to my one year hence valuation of $3.3X - anything more is thus market irrationality :p.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Lola]

.... and the shareprice back up 6.1% today.

:)

The recent gyration in the share price could have been avoided if the company had released the "supplementary"information when they should have namely with the substantive announcement of the result. Oh well it provided a nice little window for some.

[suse]

http://www.junoinvesting.co.nz/market-insights/2017/2/27/an-insure-thing-cbl?rq=CBL

[BlackPeter]

http://www.junoinvesting.co.nz/market-insights/2017/2/27/an-insure-thing-cbl?rq=CBL

Thanks for posting, interesting summary.

[JoeGrogan]

http://www.junoinvesting.co.nz/market-insights/2017/2/27/an-insure-thing-cbl?rq=CBL

"The alignment of the management and the board, and their belief in the business, was shown by the limited sell-down of holdings at the IPO by Peter Harris and Alistair Hutchinson – they relinquished only 12 per cent and 16 per cent of their holdings respectively. Their combined shareholding is worth NZ$412.5 million (based on a NZ$3.75 share price)."

Nice to see management have a decent amount of 'skin in the game'.

Edit: On second thought forecasting a 2017 PE ratio of 11 seems to be a stretch when the guidance is only a 18-22% improvement on this years operating profit.

[JoeGrogan]

http://www.4-traders.com/CBL-CORPORATION-LTD-26405978/financials/

Yeah i just can't see a 64 million dollar net profit being reached on a 18-22% improvement in operating earnings.

[Joshuatree]

CBL ANNOUNCES CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT TO BUY US INSURER
Download Document 630.94KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4w 65wRLyv%2FR787FiGug%3D)

[melsmith90210]

Yeah i just can't see a 64 million dollar net profit being reached on a 18-22% improvement in operating earnings.

Reading through the reports SFS acquisition was in for 3 months of 2016 so 2017 will see a full 12 months of earnings flow through for that entity to the bottom line. The segment report gives some good detail of the entity splits.

US acquisition might add a little but they seem to be talking that down for anything meaningful in 2017, looks like a sharp price negotiated though.

I also see they are now included in the ASX 300 index as of 20 March 2017, not sure how much demand from indexes this puts on the stock.

Like what I see though. Tough to find good growth performing companies.

[BlackPeter]

just to move this to the appropriate thread:


Have a look at CBL - they do quite nicely :)


Picture a chart of a Turkey being fattened up for Christmas.
It starts in the bottom left hand corner on 1st January.Each day you feed the turkey, and it puts on weight,and each day you mark on your chart,and the chart starts heading for the top right hand corner.Looks fantastic.But then on the 13th December you chop off the turkeys head.Chart drops to Zero.Insurance companies are the same.Fat profits until a huge underwriting disasterous loss cuts off their head.!
Read the history of Lloyds.


Are you saying that it might not be a good idea to invest into insurance companies who underwrite life insurance policies for turkeys without excluding the risk of intentional cultural mass-killings of said turkeys?

I absolutely agree.

However - looking at the larger picture of insurance companies do I think that your post just highlights the problem of insufficient diversification combined with underestimating the likelihood and damage of one particular insured event.

I don't think that the insurance business is that much different to the finance business - and we both are quite heavily invested into some examples of the latter kind. The trick is in both industries to properly manage and cost risk - and to diversify sufficiently to make sure that one (or a series of) super accident(s) does not kill the business.

I probably need to do still some more research on CBL (and this is stuff for a different thread), but I don't see any reason why insurance in general should be more risky or less profitable than any other well managed business in the financial world.

Do you?


Read the history of Lloyds.
9/11 I only sold one share and it was Tower.
You are right about finance companies.I think Banks in Australasia have better government controls on them now,but the wild west days of finance companies is exactly what insurances companies are like.
We still have to watch bad loans with HBL and TNR.Both currently have few.
I think back to Re-Insure in Aussie,years of great profits,holding mainly cash.Went broke.AMI in NZ,a great history of profits.One earthquake broke them. CBL just remember those who do not follow history are doomed to repeat it.Be careful.If you can understand insurance compay's accounting you are doing well.If you can't,don't buy something you don't understand.


And when in a low interest enviroment, their profits from investments are low they "appear to have a problem".
And if claims excede underwriting,they " appear to have a very big problem".

Hi Percy, I did buy some CBL during the recent drop (it just looked like a typical market overreaction and the fundamentals look good), and so far seemed to have done quite well with them. I agree however that I probably need to do some more due diligence before I move these shares to my bottom drawer.

Couple of initial reactions to your concerns: If I look at their insurance portfolio, than I don't see at this stage huge systematic risks (like the close sequence of devastating earthquakes which killed e.g. AMI). The only area I might be a bit concerned about is their underwriting of "builders warranty". Need to look deeper into the conditions, but something like that could probably turn into a problem if NZ builders create the next fad after "leaky buildings".

Having said that ... these are no 9/11 problems or earthquakes which let share values drop over night. A bit of basic TA and regular monitoring should catch issues like that before the company goes down the river.

Anyway I do appreciate your warning and intend to do a bit more homework on this one.

[percy]

I have given you general warnings about insurance companies.
I rang a friend, who is an insurance agent, and asked him about CBL ,when they listed.His advice was to be very careful, as they are at the high risk end of the insurance business.That was enough for me to avoid them.
Take care.
ps an earlier poster on this thread did mention long tails,something to remember.I would just add very long tails.!!

[Snow Leopard]

I have given you general warnings about insurance companies.
I rang a friend, who is an insurance agent, and asked him about CBL ,when they listed.His advice was to be very careful, as they are at the high risk end of the insurance business.That was enough for me to avoid them.
Take care.
ps an earlier poster on this thread did mention long tails,something to remember.I would just add very long tails.!!

And yet you throw your money at tiny dodgy little banks like Heartland despite the repeated warnings and the even dodgier finance company: Turners !

You will be buying into Airlines next !!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[percy]

And yet you throw your money at tiny dodgy little banks like Heartland despite the repeated warnings and the even dodgier finance company: Turners !

You will be buying into Airlines next !!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

The money I threw at the dodgy little bank, is being thrown back in big chunks,and the even dodgier finance company is starting to do the same..
No I will leave the airlines to others.

ps.Just remembered Turners have an insurance company.

[macduffy]

The money I threw at the dodgy little bank, is being thrown back in big chunks,and the even dodgier finance company is starting to do the same..
No I will leave the airlines to others.

ps.Just remembered Turners have an insurance company.

But is it their (Turners') risk? Policies are underwritten by Vero.

[percy]

But is it their (Turners') risk? Policies are underwritten by Vero.

Thank you macduffy.
So just another ticket for Turners to clip.
They are big ticket clippers.

[BlackPeter]

OK - here we go ... looking forward to a robust and constructive review of my little SWOT analysis:

CBL is one of the newcomers in my portfolio and, after a few warning words from fellow posters about insurance companies in general did I thought it prudent to have another look into this stock before it ends up in my back drawer.

That's how they describe themselves: "CBL Corporation Limited (CBL) is a specialist insurer and reinsurer focused on credit and financial risk. CBL has eight offices spread across 25 countries and almost 550 employees. The company has been operating for over 43 years, and is listed on the ASX and the NZX Main Board."

"CBL specialises in writing building and construction related credit and financial surety insurance, bonding and reinsurance. CBL Insurance currently has an investment grade rating of A- (Excellent) and an issuer rating of a-, with both outlooks ‘Stable’, from A.M. Best Ratings Agency."

They experienced strong and consistent revenue growth (CAGR >30%) in the past combined with healthy and consistent EPS growth (exception: last year mainly due to currency write-offs due to strong NZ$ and one-offs related to acquisition).

At this stage they draw the majority of their income (GWP - gross written premium) from various European countries.


Strengths:

strong and consistent revenue growth in the past. CAGR (7yrs): 32.6% p.a., forward CAGR (based on analyst estimatees): 27.6%
"excellent" credit rating: A-, outlook stable
healthy and consistent EPS growth since 2011 with (so far) one exception in 2016; underlying profit did still grow, but reported profit was down due to one offs (mainly acquisition costs and currency movements)
forward PE of 10 combined with a forward CAGR of 27.6 - put the numbers yourself into the Graham formula
increasing product and geographic diversity
board members have lots of skin in the game. Actually, this is an understatement. Add the better part of the arms and legs to the skin ;): All board members have substantial holdings - and added up they hold even after the latest "selldown" still nearly 39% of all issued shares;


Weaknesses

despite a rather strong balance sheet: it is still a quite small insurance company. One major slip-up or oversight might kill them;
not sure its a real weakness, but the fact that they hold funds in the currencies they operate in means that a strengthening NZ$ impairs their income ... like it did 2016;


Opportunities

enormous potential through international growth (Europe, SE-Asia, India, US, Mexico)
growth opportunities based on European customers moving from UK competitors to their EU based daughter company CBL Insurance Europe


Threats

potential to oversee a major risk in new legislations and economies due to (potentially) too fast growth
Does the comparatively low SP (given EPS and CAGR) reflect the markets view of "too good to be true"?
a black swan event always might be just around the next corner, and the history of insurance companies is full of them. One potential black swan I could imagine would be the builders warranty in case of any further systematic failure of NZ building standards (leaky buildings anybody); Obviously depends on where the courts would put the liabilities - they insure only builders liability, not the stupidity of bureaucracy; on the other hand ... their overall NZ exposure is rather small.


Examples for previous "black swan events" hitting the insurance industry in the past - examples to lookout for:

A number of insurance syndicates forming part of Lloyds of London got bust when US courts started in the 1980'ies to award large punitive damages against (by Lloyds insured) employers in case of asbestos, pollution and health hazard claims. These cases sometimes went back to the 1940'ies ... "a long tail", but given that the insurers in the 1940'ies to 70'ies didn't understood the nature of these (for them future) claims, they couldn't build up appropriate reserves.
HIH Insurance (Australian largest ... until 2001) managed itself out of existence due to combination of management incompetence, misrepresentation and open fraud (managers went into jail).
AIG (the worlds biggest insurer) nearly wiped itself out by offering a new product of "credit default swaps" - basically an insurance against the default of certain financial instruments. Highly profitable until the GFC wiped the value of subprime mortgages and people started to claim on these swaps.
AMI had enough reinsurance for one major earthquake, but not for a sequence of several earthquakes. It killed the company



While I do see the inherent risks for the insurance industry would I think that buying into CBL might be worth while the risk ... as long as the returns provide an appropriate reward for latter. If the Grahams formula makes any sense, than the potential gains are huge.

Interested in other peoples views. Any strengths, opportunities, weaknesses or threats I should add?

Discl: hold (a medium sized parcel);

DYOR;

[percy]

Lloyds also got caught big time with insuring technology, such as computers, that became obsolete quicker than they thought they would.
Back to you and CBL.I think you now have a better understanding of CBL.

[macduffy]

CBL see opportunities in Brexit situation.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11849115

I hold.

[Joshuatree]

Chairman's Address to Shareholders (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/3399468/)
CBL MD address to Shareholders for AGM (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/3399462/)

Truly a global business now.Scale now in france.
At pains to clear up the FETA below.
Onwards and upwards ,hopefully.


The second item was the foreign exchange translation adjustment made in order to express our balancesheet assets and liabilities in a single reporting currency - New Zealand dollars. The foreign exchangetranslation adjustment is not a realised expense, and not a cash item, (which is why it is added back to netreported profit after tax when we calculate dividends). The adjustment in 2016 was a negative $9.8 million,compared with a positive adjustment of $3.9 million in 2015. Neither the positive adjustment nor thenegative adjustment mean anything insofar as measuring our underlying operating performance. This$9.8m foreign exchange translation negative adjustment in 2016 is required to flow through our Statementof Profit or Loss, and reduced our net profit after tax to $30.7 million, which is a reduction of 13.5%compared to 2015 net profit after tax.

[BlackPeter]

Looking pretty cheap to me ... forward PE of 9.1 and this with a forward CAGR of 27.6 ;).

Feels like the SP just went through a local dip at 3.24 but now only 28 shares at 3.28 left.

Some more analysis 4 posts back .... but I know, we shouldn't talk too much about nice little earners, just drives the SP uphill - and who would want that?

DYOR

Discl: holding and just picked up some more at 3.25 :t_up:

[kiora]

Looking pretty cheap to me ... forward PE of 9.1 and this with a forward CAGR of 27.6 ;).

Feels like the SP just went through a local dip at 3.24 but now only 28 shares at 3.28 left.

Some more analysis 4 posts back .... but I know, we shouldn't talk too much about nice little earners, just drives the SP uphill - and who would want that?

DYOR

Discl: holding and just picked up some more at 3.25 :t_up:

Keep buying BP :)

[Snow Leopard]

Looking pretty cheap to me ... forward PE of 9.1...

"and where would that P/E ratio of 9.1 come from?" he asked purely out of curiosity.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[BlackPeter]

"and where would that P/E ratio of 9.1 come from?" he asked purely out of curiosity.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Easy ...
Estimated earnings (EPS) for 2017: 27.7cents 2018: 37.7 cents 2019: 42.3 cents
(all according to 4-traders: http://www.4-traders.com/CBL-CORPORATION-LTD-26405978/financials/).
Makes an average forward EPS of 36 cents.
Current SP (328 cents) divided by 36 cents equals 9.1 (well, limited to one digit after the dot).

Makes sense?

[Snow Leopard]

:ohmy: :ohmy: :ohmy: !

I am currently treating analysts estimates for both FY17 & FY18 with a reasonable degree of caution.

BW PT

Disc: Hold

[kiora]

:ohmy: :ohmy: :ohmy: !

I am currently treating analysts estimates for both FY17 & FY18 with a reasonable degree of caution.

BW PT

Disc: Hold

Suggesting analysts are too optimistic or pessimistic PT ?

[Snow Leopard]

Assuming a starting point of a 'normalised share-weighted FY2016 EPS' of $0.21 and assuming that the numbers being bandied about here for FY17 & FY18 are based off an equivalent basis,
then,
I regard them as too agressive.

Both are 30%+ YoY growth and proffer absolutely no allowance for the downside risks.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[BlackPeter]

Assuming a starting point of a 'normalised share-weighted FY2016 EPS' of $0.21 and assuming that the numbers being bandied about here for FY17 & FY18 are based off an equivalent basis,
then,
I regard them as too agressive.

Both are 30%+ YoY growth and proffer absolutely no allowance for the downside risks.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

No doubt - the 2018/19 EPS assumptions do look enthusiastic (lacking a better word). However - even if we reduce the (average) growth assumption to only 10% (meaning no further expansion, just organic growth) and the EPS to something like 25 (EPS13 - less than the 2017 consensus) does the share still look good value (still only half of what Graham's formula would compute).

And this is not taking into account the move into the US and all the Brexit related European growth opportunities with London losing its free entry into the EU (don't forget - CBL are a EU based business after all).

Happy to wait for history's verdict - and if the SP really only doubles (when the market wakes up), than I am happy to take this on the chin ... :p

Of course - it all can turn to custard ... it wouldn't be the first insurance company doing this trick, i.e. DYOR!

[kiora]

Assuming a starting point of a 'normalised share-weighted FY2016 EPS' of $0.21 and assuming that the numbers being bandied about here for FY17 & FY18 are based off an equivalent basis,
then,
I regard them as too agressive.

Both are 30%+ YoY growth and proffer absolutely no allowance for the downside risks.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Thanks PT,sounds reasonable

[BlackPeter]

And the newest star in the NZX50 is .... CBL :t_up:!

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CBL/announcements/302622

They are joining the index on Monday, 19. June. Some opportunity for index funds to push the SP up ... the smart money obviously owns them already :p;

Discl: proud holder :cool:.

[trader_jackson]

Although CBL fitted with my 'growth + dividend' approach, I was sceptical of CBL.

So far they have proven me very wrong, well done to all the holders.

[winner69]

Although CBL fitted with my 'growth + dividend' approach, I was sceptical of CBL.

So far they have proven me very wrong, well done to all the holders.

Probably sceptical because you didn't understand there business

No harm in not investing in anything you don't understand

[percy]

Probably sceptical because you didn't understand there business

No harm in not investing in anything you don't understand

I totally agree,with both of you!

[Lola]

Probably sceptical because you didn't understand there business

No harm in not investing in anything you don't understand

Im in there too and dont understand their business,,,,eg...would they have any exposure to that frightening Fire?

[Joshuatree]

make thAT XXXX:D

[BlackPeter]

Im in there too and dont understand their business,,,,eg...would they have any exposure to that frightening Fire?

Highly unlikely, they are not a fire insurance.

Only theoretical option I could see is IF
a) the recent renovations (e.g. cladding) had anything to do with the spread of the fire AND
b) they did underwrite the liability insurance for the company which did the renovations AND
c) the company did not follow the local building regulations while doing the job (i.e. could be deemed liable) AND
d) courts see above breach as the cause (or materially contributing) to the event

So - in theory something like that might catch them at some stage ... but I would assume that in this unlikely case they would have reinsurance above a certain amount of damage anyway. In my view no need (for CBL stakeholders) to lose sleep over that right now.

[suse]

No buyers out there for CBL so how can this share grow????

[BlackPeter]

Never buy shares with the intention to sell them. Buy them with the intention to make money from them doing business.

Just watch them ratcheting up their revenues and margins, as they did in the past. The buyers will come from alone.

But yes, CBL is not a traders share. Low liquidity. This is a share for investors.

[JoeGrogan]

Irish acquisition, should add more strength to the European side of the business.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CBL/announcements/303823

[sb9]

Irish acquisition, should add more strength to the European side of the business.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CBL/announcements/303823

Good buying today with decent volume too, picked up small parcel last week on the back of that announcement.

[JoeGrogan]

Good buying today with decent volume too, picked up small parcel last week on the back of that announcement.

Very nice to see some buyers popping up in the depth today was looking pretty bleak a couple weeks ago. I too added to my somewhat smallish holding after that announcement, hopefully the buyers stick around and we get on a nice run leading up until HY.

[sb9]

Very nice to see some buyers popping up in the depth today was looking pretty bleak a couple weeks ago. I too added to my somewhat smallish holding after that announcement, hopefully the buyers stick around and we get on a nice run leading up until HY.

Yes, looking really good...big volume crossing...



1
18
2:59:05 pm
345
1,000,000
$3,450,000
Off Market

[kiora]

Through MA 200

[JoeGrogan]

Breaking out to a higher high, although on little volume today, charts starting to look healthier too.

[sb9]

Breaking out to a higher high, although on little volume today, charts starting to look healthier too.

It appears that market is pricing in a good HY result and some keen punters wanted to get in going by the big crossing the other day. Surprised to see how quickly it moved up over last few trading days...

[JoeGrogan]

It appears that market is pricing in a good HY result and some keen punters wanted to get in going by the big crossing the other day. Surprised to see how quickly it moved up over last few trading days...

Totally agree

[kiora]

It appears that market is pricing in a good HY result and some keen punters wanted to get in going by the big crossing the other day. Surprised to see how quickly it moved up over last few trading days...

B/c its tightly held :)

[sb9]

Sure I saw on Friday another decent parcel of 100k crossed @3.69 from on stocknessmonster...

[sb9]

2
5
1:48:34 pm
360
6,000
$21,600
Off Market


3
4
1:48:23 pm
360
500,000
$1,800,000
Off Market


4
3
1:48:10 pm
360
70,649
$254,336
Off Market




Nice :)

[BlackPeter]

Just noticed - both analysts on 4-traders just upped their target price. New consensus target is $3.95 (up from $3.73). Nice.

Obviously - day traders don't need to apply ;) - patience is here the game;

[JoeGrogan]

Forecasted EPS of .28 still seems a tad lofty to me, however, looking forward to being proven wrong in the HY update.

Source for EPS number: https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=CBL:NZC

[BlackPeter]

Forecasted EPS of .28 still seems a tad lofty to me, however, looking forward to being proven wrong in the HY update.

Source for EPS number: https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=CBL:NZC

Why? Remember - they had this year already a number of EPS accretive acquisitions:

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4471793

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4394764

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4337501

[JoeGrogan]

Why? Remember - they had this year already a number of EPS accretive acquisitions:

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4471793

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4394764

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4337501

The forecast given in the supplementary materials to the annual report was 18-22% underlying profit growth. So a calculation of a 20% increase is $55,440 mil, which is about .235 underlying EPS. Of course this forecast could be conservative and not take into account the full impact of these acquisitions, i guess we will find out soon enough.

[BlackPeter]

The forecast given in the supplementary materials to the annual report was 18-22% underlying profit growth. So a calculation of a 20% increase is $55,440 mil, which is about .235 underlying EPS. Of course this forecast could be conservative and not take into account the full impact of these acquisitions, i guess we will find out soon enough.

FP as well as 4 traders work with IFRS numbers - not "underlying EPS". Maybe this is the issue?

[JoeGrogan]

FP as well as 4 traders work with IFRS numbers - not "underlying EPS". Maybe this is the issue?

FT states that 2016 eps was .198 this has to be underlying eps unless i am missing something? I think 4traders was the same but the site isn't loading for me to check right now. If they were using IFRS numbers then there is even less chance .28eps is reached imo.

[BlackPeter]

FT states that 2016 eps was .198 this has to be underlying eps unless i am missing something? I think 4traders was the same but the site isn't loading for me to check right now. If they were using IFRS numbers then there is even less chance .28eps is reached imo.

Not sure I understand your logic ... and where your numbers come from

However 2016 EPS was 13.31 cents (check out page 24 of their annual report - quite at the bottom, or look into 4-traders). From memory - this was due to some currency fluctuations (i.e. no real money lost or gained - they just keep their money in the countries in which they need to pay out the claims). I was under the impression that FT gets their numbers from 4-traders (they frequently seem to copy the same errors ;)), but who am I to know. I hardly work with the FT database - too many gaps, not enough info.

So - why exactly does this make the 28 cents (or 27.7 cents actually) for 2017 still more unlikely? Any currency fluctuation might go this year into the other direction (actually this is highly likely) - and as I said - lots of money making acquisitions made ...

But anyway - I have no insider knowledge and in this market anything can happen. Not long until they announce it anyway ... lets just enjoy the thrill - shall we ;)?

[JoeGrogan]

Not sure I understand your logic ... and where your numbers come from

However 2016 EPS was 13.31 cents (check out page 24 of their annual report - quite at the bottom, or look into 4-traders). From memory - this was due to some currency fluctuations (i.e. no real money lost or gained - they just keep their money in the countries in which they need to pay out the claims). I was under the impression that FT gets their numbers from 4-traders (they frequently seem to copy the same errors ;)), but who am I to know. I hardly work with the FT database - too many gaps, not enough info.

So - why exactly does this make the 28 cents (or 27.7 cents actually) for 2017 still more unlikely? Any currency fluctuation might go this year into the other direction (actually this is highly likely) - and as I said - lots of money making acquisitions made ...

But anyway - I have no insider knowledge and in this market anything can happen. Not long until they announce it anyway ... lets just enjoy the thrill - shall we ;)?

Essentially my logic is that if they (CBL) are forecasting 18-22% growth in underlying profit which equals roughly 55,000m. Then NPAT, an IFRS number, is likely not going to be more than 55mil as underlying profit is typically more than NPAT as it does not include tax.

I concede that my logic may be flawed, however, i am just trying to make sense of the forecast on 4 traders.

[BlackPeter]

Essentially my logic is that if they (CBL) are forecasting 18-22% growth in underlying profit which equals roughly 55,000m. Then NPAT, an IFRS number, is likely not going to be more than 55mil as underlying profit is typically more than NPAT as it does not include tax.

I concede that my logic may be flawed, however, i am just trying to make sense of the forecast on 4 traders.

Just add some "negative depreciation" (currency gain) to reflect on the currency losses from last year swapping back (not a technical term) and you might be there.

Look - I think I understand now your logic, but I don't think that it allows you to predict the IFRS EPS (without knowing what happened in the reminder of the balance sheet). Anyway - I find it hard enough to read an existing balance sheet - more so to predict a not yet released one ...

And hey - you might be right (depending on what the exchange rate fluctuations did to their accounts. Just too hard for me to put more effort into it at this stage ... given that the outcome (assuming currency fluctuations make the difference, as last year - just into the other direction) is hardly material ...

[sb9]

Well, after that silly trades last week, back to where it belongs with large crossing of 100K at 3.75 a piece. Bodes well for results next week.

[kiora]

Well, after that silly trades last week, back to where it belongs with large crossing of 100K at 3.75 a piece. Bodes well for results next week.

And a good whiskey :)

[winner69]

Insurance 'accounting' is one big guess eh

Probably a prudent move .....but will a lot of punters not understand


https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/263782.pdf

[BlackPeter]

Insurance 'accounting' is one big guess eh

Probably a prudent move .....but will a lot of punters not understand


https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/263782.pdf

Not sure, whether "strengthening reserves" is that hard to understand, but yes, I guess they could have done that gradually over the years instead of taking this time a big chunk out of their profit and adding it to the reserve.

Anyway - in a way it is just moving dollars from one internal account into other internal account (and keeping them this way as well safe from the taxman). Not too concerned, though they clearly managed to throw with this move the optimistic analyst earnings forecasts at least for this FY out of the window.

Disc: hold;

[winner69]

Not sure, whether "strengthening reserves" is that hard to understand, but yes, I guess they could have done that gradually over the years instead of taking this time a big chunk out of their profit and adding it to the reserve.

Anyway - in a way it is just moving dollars from one internal account into other internal account (and keeping them this way as well safe from the taxman). Not too concerned, though they clearly managed to throw with this move the optimistic analyst earnings forecasts at least for this FY out of the window.

Disc: hold;

Though some would say they have understated future needs ( overstated profits) in the past

But they not going to 'restate' the past

Insurance accounting and profit reporting just one big guess

[JoeGrogan]

They were going to miss forecast by a million any way so seems like an appropriate time lol. Wheres this growth at?

[sb9]

Have listed to management conf call at 1.30 and can say I'm quite comfortable with today's market news release and both CEO and CFO are very confident of future earnings.

There was lot of insurance jargon that at least I'm not familiar within the discussion.

Disc - was thinking of selling in the morning but after listening to conf call happy to continue to hold

[winner69]

Have listed to management conf call at 1.30 and can say I'm quite comfortable with today's market news release and both CEO and CFO are very confident of future earnings.

There was lot of insurance jargon that at least I'm not familiar within the discussion.

Disc - was thinking of selling in the morning but after listening to conf call happy to continue to hold

Special language eh sb9 - bit like accounting / reporting is special

Alright for now ....but somethimes these acturarial / experience adjustments can become a bit regular (think Tower) ...if that happens then I would be less confident

[sb9]

Special language eh sb9 - bit like accounting / reporting is special

Alright for now ....but somethimes these acturarial / experience adjustments can become a bit regular (think Tower) ...if that happens then I would be less confident

That's correct winner, CFO sounded extremely upbeat about future prospects for CBL. And I did pick CEO mention that further good news will be provided at time of HY results day being 24th Aug, whatever that may be....

Finally, today's news release is all related to French insurance business and rest of their books have been put under extreme stress test (as per CFO's wording) and they look to be in good shape.

[JoeGrogan]

That's correct winner, CFO sounded extremely upbeat about future prospects for CBL. And I did pick CEO mention that further good news will be provided at time of HY results day being 24th Aug, whatever that may be....

Finally, today's news release is all related to French insurance business and rest of their books have been put under extreme stress test (as per CFO's wording) and they look to be in good shape.

Cheers for the update, i'll continue to hold till the 24th at least, and make an assessment from there.

[sb9]

Cheers for the update, i'll continue to hold till the 24th at least, and make an assessment from there.

All good. Must say was bit wary in the morning when the news was released, feel bit more reassured after listening to the conf call.

Also fact that few large crossings are taking place at 3.40 mark which suggest good support around that level.

[kiora]

All good. Must say was bit wary in the morning when the news was released, feel bit more reassured after listening to the conf call.

Also fact that few large crossings are taking place at 3.40 mark which suggest good support around that level.

Thanks for the update sb.I am reassured by bad news this week,good news story next week :)

[BlackPeter]

Have listed to management conf call at 1.30 and can say I'm quite comfortable with today's market news release and both CEO and CFO are very confident of future earnings.

There was lot of insurance jargon that at least I'm not familiar within the discussion.

Disc - was thinking of selling in the morning but after listening to conf call happy to continue to hold


That's correct winner, CFO sounded extremely upbeat about future prospects for CBL. And I did pick CEO mention that further good news will be provided at time of HY results day being 24th Aug, whatever that may be....

Finally, today's news release is all related to French insurance business and rest of their books have been put under extreme stress test (as per CFO's wording) and they look to be in good shape.

Thanks for your update ... unfortunately I missed this call.

Anybody knows whether there is somewhere a recording available?

[Snow Leopard]

Bought a few more in the $3.30 to $3.32 range.
Price got away from me before I reached my quota.
If it comes back then I am ready.

Best Wishes
P. Tiger

[Joshuatree]

Finished @ $3.15 . Has dumped before even lower on misinterpretation. Thanks for your posts folks.

[percy]

Finished @ $3.15 . Has dumped before even lower on misinterpretation. Thanks for your posts folks.

Maybe you should have posted on the ASX thread JT.......??????????,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,lol.

[Joshuatree]

You're easily entertained. Yeah i hold CBL on the ASX.

[Snow Leopard]

Bought a few more in the $3.30 to $3.32 range.
Price got away from me before I reached my quota.
If it comes back then I am ready.

Best Wishes
P. Tiger

Order now completely filled.
It had better go up from here!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[sb9]

Order now completely filled.
It had better go up from here!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Hope it goes up from here for your sake (and mine)...but not so sure of the big seller who cross traded Mln shares at 3.295 a piece.

[peat]

I am a bit surprised PT
this one has fat tails and thats exactly what the independent actuaries were reminding them about
and a lil ol kiwi company competing against European insurance giants?? What is their competitive advantage?

[percy]

Order now completely filled.
It had better go up from here!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Did you buy on market or off market.?

[Snow Leopard]

I am a bit surprised PT...
I am constantly surprised by the price that some people pay for shares and the amount of research they have not done on them.


...this one has fat tails...
So do Snow Leopards:
http://www.naturalhistoryonthenet.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Snow-Leopard.jpg


...and thats exactly what the independent actuaries were reminding them about...
and they are provisioning for, apparently taking it in one hit!


...and a lil ol kiwi company competing against European insurance giants?? What is their competitive advantage?
You do your research and you attempt to define the risks and the rewards and then you put a price on what you believe represents good value.

You accept that depending upon the scenario that plays out you may loose or make varying amounts of money and you hope that as the circumstances develop you reassess those risks and whether to buy, hold or sell.
You do not put too much of your total portfolio in any one sector or company.

I am content to be in at the moment, I believe that they can grow their profits over the next few years sufficiently to justify that but I have suggested on this thread that some people need to be cautious of the publicly available future estimates for CBL.


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[moka]

I think that the price will drop further. The reason I say this is that there have been two sharp drops with CBL previously, one in October last year and again in February this year. In both cases it was about two weeks for top to bottom.


I’m presently reading Richard Fairleigh’s book Taming the Lion – 100 Secret Strategies for Investing Success.


His strategy no 4.0 - Look for patterns and anomalies. Try to identify patterns and anomalies in the way markets behave.


Strategy no 8.5 - Trends represent the gradual dispersal of information. Information and analysis can take time to be dispersed through the market place. This delay in reactions causes prices to trend.

So I think a strong knee-jerk reaction with a down-trend for about two weeks and then the price will rise again. It did rise sharply from the bottom on 2 March this year.



.... and the shareprice back up 6.1% today.

:)

[BlackPeter]

surprise highlighted ....



Full year FY17 guidance previously indicated total revenue growth of 12% - 15% on FY16, and underlying operating profit
growth of 18% - 22% on FY16*
CBL has delivered 35% growth in 1H17
Operating profit is below expectations for the half year following prior year and current period reserve strengthening that
reduced operating profit
CBL expects 2H17 to result in continued strong growth in total revenue and maintains its guidance previously provided, but operating profit will remain below guidance by the amount of the prior period adjustments, although a resurgence is targeted for FY18
CBL expects to be highly cash flow positive in 2H17 and current liquidity levels are expected to continue to rise



Looks like markets need a bit longer to digest this amazing news, maybe they didn't highlight it enough?
Anyway ... happy to wait for markets to wake up

[kiora]

Yes good result BP.Should put a solid floor under SP.

[Snow Leopard]

CBL seems to be a much misunderstood company.
I just hope that it is not me doing the misunderstanding.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[sb9]

Yes good result BP.Should put a solid floor under SP.

Its quite menacing to see one seller keen to offload 117k at 3.28 a piece....

[BlackPeter]

CBL seems to be a much misunderstood company.
I just hope that it is not me doing the misunderstanding.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I hear what you say ... and share your feelings.

Having said that ... it is not that unusual for the market to misprice companies, and given that the number of insurance companies on the NZX is quite limited (are there more than 2?) and one of them (not CBL) not always smelling like roses ... Maybe it is understandable for the punters being ultra cautious ....

[babymonster]

Happy to get back in after the result. Much better than I thought

[macduffy]

There's a lot of talk around these days about the problems in the construction industry, especially contract cost over-runs and completion delays. Fletchers is a local example but apparently it's a world wide problem. Given this, should shareholders be concerned about any flow-on effect on CBL's Builders' Performance Guarantee and other associated insurance contracts etc?

Disc: Holding CBL.

[BlackPeter]

There's a lot of talk around these days about the problems in the construction industry, especially contract cost over-runs and completion delays. Fletchers is a local example but apparently it's a world wide problem. Given this, should shareholders be concerned about any flow-on effect on CBL's Builders' Performance Guarantee and other associated insurance contracts etc?

Disc: Holding CBL.

Good point. So far I assume that these guarantees cover only quality problems ... as well as covering the owner of the house if the builder goes bust. I am not aware of insurance against time overruns in construction projects and am pretty sure that any premium against this risk would be prohibitive. CBL seems to focus on insuring many small risks vs a small number of big risks.

A larger risk for them I could see would be another leaky building crisis or similar ... Certainly worthwhile to investigate how good their reinsurance would be in a case like that. Anybody knows?

[Snow Leopard]

I think that the price will drop further. The reason I say this is that there have been two sharp drops with CBL previously, one in October last year and again in February this year. In both cases it was about two weeks for top to bottom.


I’m presently reading Richard Fairleigh’s book Taming the Lion – 100 Secret Strategies for Investing Success.


His strategy no 4.0 - Look for patterns and anomalies. Try to identify patterns and anomalies in the way markets behave.


Strategy no 8.5 - Trends represent the gradual dispersal of information. Information and analysis can take time to be dispersed through the market place. This delay in reactions causes prices to trend.

So I think a strong knee-jerk reaction with a down-trend for about two weeks and then the price will rise again. It did rise sharply from the bottom on 2 March this year.

Well so far you and Mr Farleigh have been on the money with this one.
Hopefully it will follow the rest of your prediction in the near future.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[kiora]

Tides about to change ?

[BlackPeter]

Tides about to change ?

They certainly do look oversold, don't they? Reasonable volume as well for this not that liquid stock - might be.

[moka]

Well so far you and Mr Farleigh have been on the money with this one.
Hopefully it will follow the rest of your prediction in the near future.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Another of Richard Farleigh's pieces of wisdom is that prices go further than expected, both down as well as up.

He says historically, all of the different asset classes have a habit of surprising people by how far they move and how long they keep moving. And he advises you to forget the old price. That often people arbitrarily decide a market is under or overvalued. In many cases it based on a feeling that the price has moved too far.

I was surprised by CBL increasing over 100% in its first year after listing. It's price went further than I expected. Not many IPOs do that.

So yes, hopefully it is bottoming out around the $3 mark.

[Snow Leopard]

Heh moka, I bought the e-book and now you are spoiling the plot for me :).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[kiora]

Agree share price surprising on the upside bc Fund/s buying in,share price surprising on the downside bc fund/s selling out.
The company performance not so exaggerated as share price performance would suggest/

[sb9]

Tides about to change ?

Doesn't look like it has...every time it tried to move up a bit, bang comes the selling pressure. Being tightly held stock the sentiment is working in negative way for now at least...

[Snow Leopard]

This is not the SP I was looking for!

Must get to the end of the book to find out what to do!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[babymonster]

This is not the SP I was looking for!

Must get to the end of the book to find out what to do!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

add a bit more

[sb9]

Hoping the selling pressure has abated...don't want to jinx it though.

[Elles]

Good jump up again, shame I just missed it! I'd finally put in a buy order over the weekend after doing my research and thinking it's worth buying into, but it bounced back up before my order was hit! Oh well, will keep watching for a bit longer...

[macduffy]

Good jump up again, shame I just missed it! I'd finally put in a buy order over the weekend after doing my research and thinking it's worth buying into, but it bounced back up before my order was hit! Oh well, will keep watching for a bit longer...

CBL's short, listed history has been characterised by, often sudden, big moves in the shareprice, not uncommon in smaller, thinly traded stocks. Setting limits on buy/sell orders can be a bit counter-productive in such circumstances. If a stock is worth buying, a few cents shouldn't be an issue. Just IMO.

:cool:

Disc: Holding.

[sb9]

CBL's short, listed history has been characterised by, often sudden, big moves in the shareprice, not uncommon in smaller, thinly traded stocks. Setting limits on buy/sell orders can be a bit counter-productive in such circumstances. If a stock is worth buying, a few cents shouldn't be an issue. Just IMO.

:cool:

Disc: Holding.

Exactly, that's what you get with tightly held stocks like CBL, which was exactly the reason it moved up rapidly to 3.80 or before the bad news came in and then drifted back to 2.80 level recently.

[Snow Leopard]

I am so happy to see CBL share price making a come back. I have been keeping the faith that the fundamentals are sound and I am back in the position of being 'in the money' on three of my four buying sprees. I also have also collected a few dollars of dividends to help along the way.

Hopefully there are no more 'negative' surprises for a couple of years.

Whilst this years headline numbers are not going to great I hope that FY18 and beyond live up to my expectations.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[hardt]

Under 15/30DMA and on huge volume (2.8m), may be heading towards that 289 target... possibly a good buy coming soon.

9228
old chart

[carrom74]

I am skeptical now with CBL...looks highly volatile.Just went below 30 day SMA...and there was a huge crossover in the morning at $3.00....fingers crossed.

[sb9]

"Insurance boss Peter Harris has been crowned EY Entrepreneur Of The Year for 2017 and will represent New Zealand at a global competition in Monaco.
Harris, the founder of NZX-listed insurer CBL Corporation, beat four other category winners to take the top gong at tonight's awards.
Chair of the EY judging panel and co-founder of James Pascoe Group, Anne Norman, said Harris was a "true master entrepreneur".

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11932453

[hardt]

Just so I don't forget to keep watching this one I dipped my toe into CBL this morning... where will they be in 2020?

I have a sneaking suspicion they will be valued above and beyond todays 700m.

At 17x ttm earnings and a favourable looking 2018, could warrant a closer look... bit more risk than I usually like to take.

9246

[kiora]

Just so I don't forget to keep watching this one I dipped my toe into CBL this morning... where will they be in 2020?

I have a sneaking suspicion they will be valued above and beyond TODAYS

9246

Me too,baring an extraordinary event event

[BlackPeter]

Just so I don't forget to keep watching this one I dipped my toe into CBL this morning... where will they be in 2020?

I have a sneaking suspicion they will be valued above and beyond todays 700m.

At 17x ttm earnings and a favourable looking 2018, could warrant a closer look... bit more risk than I usually like to take.


Absolutely - they are in my books with a forward PE of 10.4 (unless they make another substantial increase to their reserves ;)) and a CAGR of 30!

Board and management have lots of bacon in the game (skin alone wouldn't make up the weight they are invested in);

On the flipside - there are risks as well ... and while I don't think that they set themselves up for unreasonable risks in the next earthquake, bad weather event or leaky housing crisis - they are aggressively expanding into new and unknown markets like e.g. Mexico and India. It is a huge opportunity to be the first in these markets with a number of financial risk insurance products, but they obviously will need to learn to work and make money in countries with high levels of criminality and corruption and a jurisdiction not known for high integrity.

Discl: Holding - but keeping my diversification policies in mind ...

[kiora]

Plenty of growth potential
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11935389

[Joshuatree]

Thanks kiora. Five million homes in Mexico insured(under warranty for completion)!
I have just slammed the bottom drawer on this stock and will give it minimal attention for 5 years (hopefully) and just let things compound.

[peat]

thats the Mexico thats just been having heaps of large earthquakes right?

[Joshuatree]

Sorry , correct me if my interpretation is wrong but to be clear; under warranty insurance, big difference. Low risk high margin imo.
"In the residential market, that involves giving home owners guarantees that a builder will finish the job."

[hardt]

thats the Mexico thats just been having heaps of large earthquakes right?

Contractors bonds, Builders warranties and property deposit bonds... not a household and contents insurer.

[kiora]

thats the Mexico thats just been having heaps of large earthquakes right?

Yep that's the one peat,as JT says CBL insures the rebuilds :)

[Joshuatree]

And Kiora eats the worm i drink the tequila ,RRRReeeeba!;)

[kiora]

And Kiora eats the worm i drink the tequila ,RRRReeeeba!;)

JT,there is no worm in Patron Gran Platinum.Guess which Tequila I drink straight & you know what,no hangover in the morning :)

[Joshuatree]

Touche, cheers.

[kiora]

*
Touche, cheers.

Cheers JT:) It will be an interesting 3 yrs.I find it interesting our market was in the green on Fri after Winnies announcement.Just like I was surprised how the US market reacted after Trump was elected.Who can anticipate what is good for investors !

[winner69]

*

Cheers JT:) It will be an interesting 3 yrs.I find it interesting our market was in the green on Fri after Winnies announcement.Just like I was surprised how the US market reacted after Trump was elected.Who can anticipate what is good for investors !

Politics are just short term noise (and the volatility the day traders plaything)

Company fundamentals always win out in the end

[sb9]

Surely CBL should also be a beneficiary of lower NZD with its overseas business exposure mainly in Europe.

[macduffy]

Surely CBL should also be a beneficiary of lower NZD with its overseas business exposure mainly in Europe.

Yes, good on the revenue/premiums front. A bit of a drag on claims, however.

:mellow:

[BlackPeter]

Yes, good on the revenue/premiums front. A bit of a drag on claims, however.

:mellow:

Yes, but that's really just "paper" losses. Remember - they hold all their securities in the relevant currencies. What counts is the exchange rate they use to transfer their profits (i.e. premiums minus claims)!

[macduffy]

Yes, but that's really just "paper" losses. Remember - they hold all their securities in the relevant currencies. What counts is the exchange rate they use to transfer their profits (i.e. premiums minus claims)!

Correct. Let's not contemplate a "net loss" scenario.

:cool:

[sb9]

Big crossing of more than Mln shares pre-market at 2.92 a piece.

[sb9]

Looks like this one ready for next leg up with their presentation to FNZC wealth conference and First NZ increasing their stake as per SSH notice issued y'day.

Also notice current trading depth show big spread between bid price and ask price.

[Joshuatree]

PDF (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01917589) here it is esp for peat;)

[Snow Leopard]

Hopefully this will continue.

I have as many in the portfolio as I consider prudent but would be perfectly happy for CBL to expand it's weighting through share price appreciation (long word for go-up).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/announcements/310960

Ms Tindal appointed as COO of CBL group, here recent appointment was that of CFO of Auckland Council.

[kiora]

Must be due for a kick back up the road about now PT,Gee up for Xmas

[hardt]

Biggest volume in 70 days yesterday followed by the second biggest ( so far ) today.

[JoeGrogan]

Biggest volume in 70 days yesterday followed by the second biggest ( so far ) today.

Certainly a lot of transactions occurring around the $3 mark, seems to be establishing solid support.

[hardt]

FNZC know what a discount looks like

[Leftfield]

Certainly a lot of transactions occurring around the $3 mark, seems to be establishing solid support.

I'm watching from the sidelines and do not hold. IMO the chart indicates this could go sideways for awhile. Need the golden cross to make me want to join the party.

[winner69]

FNZC know what a discount looks like

Sure do


but occasionally they back slow horses as well

[BlackPeter]

For what it is worth - Share price did break a week ago through the MA100 and so far seems to hold. Lets take this as the first good technical indicator in some time - shall we?