Black Monday

[easy money]

I get the feeling that Monday maybe not so hot...anyone care to comment.

[Hoop]

I get the feeling that Monday mavbe not so hot...anyone care to share there 2cent's worth.:(

I guarantee the sun will rise and the blackness will turn to light....the birds will be happily chirping to the new day as will all the other animals........................................... ... except for some insane humans running around yelling and screaming and jumping out of windows

[see weed]

I get the feeling that Monday mavbe not so hot...anyone care to share there 2cent's worth.:(

The crashes used to be in Oct. So traders are getting in early and selling before black October.

[stoploss]

Today is the tomorrow you worried about yesterday.

[nextbigthing]

Ok, we're currently 26 mins in, no sign of the sun yet, this isn't a good start.

[skid]

I guarantee the sun will rise and the blackness will turn to light....the birds will be happily chirping to the new day as will all the other animals........................................... ... except for some insane humans running around yelling and screaming and jumping out of windows

Thats why you should never go above the 1st floor on days like this:)

[trader_jackson]

New Zealand should not fall as much as overseas markets due to the nature of our companies, but I am expecting a small fall none the less.

As for the ASX, well it will be all tears... wouldn't be surprised if it dropped below 5000, would provide a nice buying opportunity...

Just:
"keep calm, and trade on"

[Jay]

Is it October already, where did part of August and all of September go, I'm sure I have not been asleep that long.

I expect some sell off, but overall most companies are doing Ok on our bourse, so could be some "cheap" buys around in a few days to a week.

[Joshuatree]

Sensible quote from bull

"this isn't the gfc for starters otherwise all stock categories would have negative returns and that isn't the case.
rotation is occurring and nz and us utilities and treasuries are proving safe havens

I guessing nz may fall 1% today hardly a panic"

[BeeBop]

it should be interesting....I have cash available for some dividend paying UK listed funds I have been wanting to top up on. Maybe I can also get a price ease on SKL and buy a few of those?

[Absolute144]

Gold stocks will probably do ok today :) I think NZ stocks in general will wait to see what happens Monday in the US.

[janner]

Just:
"keep calm, and trade on"

As the well known world financial expert Alfred E. Neuman would say.

Wot ?? Me worry..

[percy]

Sensible quote from bull

"this isn't the gfc for starters otherwise all stock categories would have negative returns and that isn't the case.
rotation is occurring and nz and us utilities and treasuries are proving safe havens

I guessing nz may fall 1% today hardly a panic"

A couple of interesting comments on AIA and CBA in broker's tips.
They thought both had yield and earnings growth.I agree.

[Beagle]

Some soothing words from Janet Yellen is all it will take for a rebound. Avoid getting caught up in the temptation to churn I reckon.

That said this could be a good time to have a good look over your portfolio and do some carefully selected pruning of things that are neither growing nor paying decent dividends.

[xafalcon]

I would expect some selling pressure today but skewed away from utilities paying good dividends with relatively captive markets - generators and spark immediately come to mind

[janner]

Avoid getting caught up in the temptation to churn I reckon.

That say's it all really.

Think....

DYOR.

[Joshuatree]

Take your pick
Mississippi John Hurt

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zd3TpjWyVX0)BAD MONDAY - DJ BL3ND & JAYCEN A'MOUR (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4aabQB_kUs)


New Order - Blue Monday (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYH8DsU2WCk)

Bangles Manic Monday (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAZgLcK5LzI)

The Boomtown Rats - I Don't Like Mondays (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Kobdb37Cwc)

[arc]

The High Frequency Trading guys are going to make a killing in this market... the sheep are already lining up. AIA is down and the market hasnt even started.

Looking at the way their algos work I think HFT will take the market lower than it would normally go and quicker than it normally would.

[janner]

So.....

I will not be selling..

Your choice ......



The High Frequency Trading guys are going to make a killing in this market... the sheep are already lining up. AIA is down and the market hasnt even started.

Looking at the way their algos work I think HFT will take the market lower than it would normally go and quicker than it normally would.

[arc]

I see it as potential for topping up at the bottom of the cycle.

[janner]

I see it as potential for topping up at the bottom of the cycle.

What cycle ???

[Onion]

Unscientific poll of depth -- lopsided in favour of selling from what I have seen this morning. Many stocks have very shallow list of buyers, many with only cheeky low bids.

[nextbigthing]

http://www.nzonscreen.com/title/i-see-red-1979

[percy]

I HAVE GOT A GREEN ONE>>>!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TIL. well done.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol.

[janner]

lopsided in favour of selling .

What is lopsided being in favour of selling in todays market ????

Use your brain....

[pak]

Geeez some small trades depressing the sp. All reds for me too.

[BlackPeter]

I HAVE GOT A GREEN ONE>>>!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TIL. well done.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol.

And don't forget the BEAR;) ... standing out on my watchlist. Oops - this is still the Friday gain - will be interesting how much it goes up today ...

[arc]

What cycle ???

The Alice in Wonderland cycle.
Chinese recession with American knee jerk response bring the money home to mama.

[vin]

It'll be over soon enough, all red but hey nothing major

[trader_jackson]

I didn't think it would fall quite this much, has still spooked me a bit...and clearly many other retail investors (doubt the institutions are up to much selling, just buying)

[Harvey Specter]

(doubt the institutions are up to much selling, just buying)I think they will be sitting on their hands waiting to see what happens in the US tonight. Be very brave for them to be buying today (esp this morning - might change when Asia opens).

[RTM]

Not looking forward to Australia opening. Maybe they should take the day off until after Monday in USA ?

[janner]

The Alice in Wonderland cycle.

Hmmmm

Yes I believe in that Cycle.. Have made heaps following them....

BWAhahahahaaaa

[stoploss]

Not looking forward to Australia opening. Maybe they should take the day off until after Monday in USA ?


No point in delaying the inevitable , like China with their intervention to try and prop up stocks , suspend stocks etc ...... the market will go there regardless .....

[YoungBuck]

I understand historically what black monday was, but I don't understand what's going on? Why is it 'black monday'?

[janner]

I understand historically what black monday was, but I don't understand what's going on? Why is it 'black monday'?

Because " They " who ever they are...

Have had all week end to deside what YOU ....Will do.............. Say No More............

[Joshuatree]

We have had an amazing 2 year plus run on the NZX ; nothing wrong with taking a few profits; taking the top off.

[NZSilver]

I had a good look over things last night and made some decisions, today I'm trimming my holdings heavily, however have been trimming over the last few months but should have been more aggressive. Some would say this strategy is erratic but i see it as an opportunity to preserve capital. All may be good, but you have to speculate what the US markets will do tonight, and if the drop heavily its going to be all go!!! Sell now and possibly buy good companies for a much lower price. From what i can see Chinese government is intervening heavily - stocks market, currency etc, and its not working - so what would it look like if they wern't intervening...

RFT on the ASX up 11%, only positive! will keep them!

[bull....]

spark positive :t_up: its about having the right stocks isn't it

[BlackPeter]

I had a good look over things last night and made some decisions, today I'm trimming my holdings heavily, however have been trimming over the last few months but should have been more aggressive. Some would say this strategy is erratic but i see it as an opportunity to preserve capital. All may be good, but you have to speculate what the US markets will do tonight, and if the drop heavily its going to be all go!!! Sell now and possibly buy good companies for a much lower price. From what i can see Chinese government is intervening heavily - stocks market, currency etc, and its not working - so what would it look like if they wern't intervening...

RFT on the ASX up 11%, only positive! will keep them!

I guess depends whether you are an optimist or a pessimist ... so far it looks like the drop is (at least on the NZX) based on quite light volume ... which means if you are trimming today, you run the risk of selling into the bottom. But than - the day is still young, so lets see how it proceeds.

I probably would wait a couple of days with the trimming for the relieve rally to kick in, but than - i might be wrong. DYOR

[skid]

so far...its just mid to dark grey Monday:)

Ive always had this theory that having the weekend to ''get used''to it helps take the edge off.

I see futures are still in the red ,but are looking better so who knows----Sometimes Im amazed at how optimistic the US can be in shrugging off pretty bad news--As was alluded to in another thread,I agree that the worst thing is for stocks to settle into a consistent slow gradual fall. (death by strangulation)

[Beagle]

http://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/

[Nasi Goreng]

Chinese A shares futures are falling like a stone. Down about 4-5% and market opens in 7 minutes.

[skid]

China down 3.83%---lets see if the Chinese gov. deciding to pour pension funds into the stock market helps...

[easy money]

Chinese A shares futures are falling like a stone. Down about 4-5% and market opens in 7 minutes.
Oh dear...anyone been following Gold lately.

[theace]

Oh dear...anyone been following Gold lately.

Why ??? the "oh dear"

[Traderx]

NZ market doing pretty well all things considered. Shanghai down 7.04% currently. S&P futures down just under 1% on top of Friday's decline.

[easy money]

Apparently the Chinese Govt has now "allowed" the State Pension Fund to buy shares. Talk about pissing away a country's life savings.
This not a good sign..http://www.domain.com.au/news/weaker-sydney-auction-market-slides-again-20150824-gj603y/

[Beagle]

Apparently the Chinese Govt has now "allowed" the State Pension Fund to buy shares. Talk about pissing away a country's life savings.

Yes but they have "plenty" so who cares. Would be worse today without that investment fund rule relaxation over the weekend. Main Chinese index is still up over 50% in the 12 months to date. Maybe the Chinese authorities should have managed the initial bubble better ?

[easy money]

This not a good sign..http://www.domain.com.au/news/weaker-sydney-auction-market-slides-again-20150824-gj603y/
And this is not much better...http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-horror-start-ahead-20150823-gj5zqf.html

[mayday]

Shanghai Index continues its collapse this morning
7547

[IAK]

Hmm The ASB securities website has **** itself. Now that's not a good sign.:scared:

[KiwiGekko]

Hmm The ASB securities website has **** itself. Now that's not a good sign.:scared:

Was going to say this myself. ASB securities has gotten *quite* slow today...

[easy money]

Hmm The ASB securities website has **** itself. Now that's not a good sign.:scared:
Not to good at all..http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34037122

[Joshuatree]

Mkt declines in 2015 courtesy of Craigs various indices
NZ -5.3%
US -7.5%
UK -12.9%
Europe -12.7%
Aus -12.8%
"While the Nz mkt will not be immune to the moves we are seeing offshore we expect it to be less volatile"
Emg mkt -23.9%
NZD/USD -14,7%
WTI oil -34.6%

[vin]

Was going to say this myself. ASB securities has gotten *quite* slow today...

It's back up, no worries.

[easy money]

Think that's bad - check out the small cap losses on the ASX today - double digits down!
Please..no more..http://kingworldnews.com/3-new-incredible-marc-faber-warnings-global-economy-is-imploding-bankrupt-greece-china/

[Nasi Goreng]

Another 200 pts or so and ASX200 will be in a bear market.

[IAK]

Article from Craigs ' The correction has finally arrived." http://blog.craigsip.com/the-correction/
They believe the NZX50 may be more resilient than many other markets.

[Nasi Goreng]

Woah, German DAX futures are pointing towards opening at 9670, thats 450 pts lower than Fridays close.

This could very well be capitulation day. S&P500 will have its first correction in years, buyers may come in late in the day Monday or on Tuesday... or they might not.

[winner69]

I heartily recommend everyone read the first post from this thread - http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8469-Buying-in-a-Downtrend

Followed by http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5794-When-to-re-enter-the-market&highlight=phaedrus

He was a good guy that Mr P - very astute as well.

[winner69]

Our old friend Hussman reminded us last night that - Valuations are the main driver of long-term returns, but the main driver of market returns over shorter horizons is the attitude of investors toward risk],

And many are now a lot more risk adverse and won't be buying if down days are here for a while. Need keen buyers to start a turn around if we are indeed in a big correction.

Ties in with what Mr P said in those posts KW linked to.

[IAK]

I heartily recommend everyone read the first post from this thread - http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8469-Buying-in-a-Downtrend

Followed by http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5794-When-to-re-enter-the-market&highlight=phaedrus

Great posts for novices like myself thanks KW.

[winner69]

Can't be a bad day ...pumpkin patch up a few %

[gbogo]

The markets may well bounce sharply later today or later this week, but I will not invest anything at this stage. Severe technical damage has been done to almost every market around the globe. Most people have had no chance to sell out yet and those sellers will cap any bounce. Some markets are down 5% from their peaks; some are down 30%. I don't try to predict the next few months but if there are more severe sell-offs, followed by repeated failures to break the lows of those sell-offs, then I would start piling in 2-3 months for the usual end-of-year rally. But that's a big IF.

[Beagle]

To make all you NZX investors feel better - AJX and YOW down 15% today :-(

Ouch :eek2:...I'm picking your local liquor outlet might get a visit very shortly...mine will too...might as well drown your sorrows...what else is left to do after such a horrid day.

[Harvey Specter]

Can't be a bad day ...pumpkin patch up a few %GEO up too. Go figure.

NZX50 off 2.5% today. No idea what tomorrow will bring.

[sb9]

Glad was busy with other stuff on, didn't pay much attention to daily trade. Not a bad thing after all!

Not expecting any great moves tomorrow either, might be another lower day again. Brighter on wed perhaps??

[bohemian]

Fph almost up. Must be a good reason. No doubt we will find out on Thursday.

[Beagle]

http://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/

China market now down nearly 9%. Dow Jones futures off nearly 500 points.

Just imagine what losing 9% of your portfolio's value in a single day would feel like...you'd have a bloody bad headache that's for sure :eek2:

[sb9]

Yes Roger, I don't think carnage is quite done yet...

[BeeBop]

This type of day has been due. If you have purchased solid stocks in solid companies for the long-term, preferably with a good dividend yield, then all should be well. I a going to be very interested in the overseas markets, again long term holdings of good companies should hold up well. It all seems to be cyclical and it makes for interesting news! I just hope that the NZD stays low and even tracks a bit lower. Days like today make me thankful that I am not a trader....I literally don't have the b**ls for it.

[BIRMANBOY]

Literally, metaphorically or just an unfortunate farm accident?
This type of day has been due. If you have purchased solid stocks in solid companies for the long-term, preferably with a good dividend yield, then all should be well. I a going to be very interested in the overseas markets, again long term holdings of good companies should hold up well. It all seems to be cyclical and it makes for interesting news! I just hope that the NZD stays low and even tracks a bit lower. Days like today make me thankful that I am not a trader....I literally don't have the b**ls for it.

[percy]

NZ and Australia have actually gotten off lightly - Hong Kong down 5.2%, Japan down 4.2%, India down 4.1%

We must be "well positioned" then.!!! lol.

[drcjp]

If this carries on, Rod Duke will be a shoe-in to get KMD at $1.80...lol.
Heck he might even get half the ASX for that......

[Beagle]

If this carries on, Rod Duke will be a shoe-in to get KMD at $1.80...lol.
Heck he might even get half the ASX for that......

I suspect he's starting to rue the day he ever dreamed up such a crazy takeover...especially seeing as he's already bought out a whole bunch of institutions for $1.80 cash. Consumer confidence plumbing multi year lows is hardly conducive for big spenders cutting loose at KMD stores helping make KMD directors dreams of restoring descent profitability a reality is it ! The independent valuation probably needs to be moved to the fiction section of the investment library about now I would have thought.

[RGR367]

Though there's still tomorrow to come, that wasn't so bad, was it? My portfolio is only down less than 2.3% so I only got a few more shares for 2 stocks to add. And one of them is XRO :)

[Joshuatree]

You want more!!! Plenty more coming ; this is just the beginning .Volatility ahead ,No exit for many days ; Steep gradient; Sharp turns ahead; Furry animals crossing road ; Slow down. Then again I'm hoping its a storm in a teacup but thats wishful methinks.

[Beagle]

Those that "panicked" early on the ASX and sold when it was only down 2% didn't do too badly did they ! My best performing investment on the day is my dogs. They still wag their tails and make me happy :cool:

[vin]

For those interested

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNEkMmAUEAACBa-.jpg:large

[Yoda]

He was a good guy that Mr P - very astute as well.
Can you enlighten me to the 10 triggers he was referring to? Pls?.. I cant download the chart he referenced
cheers

[winner69]

Can you enlighten me to the 10 triggers he was referring to? Pls?.. I cant download the chart he referenced
cheers

It ended up being turned into a new hybrid indicator. There's a thread on it somewhere and after Mr P sailed away on his yacht to shores afar I think it's bull who occasionally updates it if things change

I see if if can find it ... if bull (or might be blackcap or whoever) is reading let us know

[janner]

descent profitability

Freudian slip ???

[Jay]

It is Tracker that provides it w69
Cannot locate the last post after a quick look

[Beagle]

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/24/market-selloff-is-serious-in-five-charts.html

[Beagle]

So I presume you've sold up most KW and locked in protection for the rest and will cuddle your dogs tonight and all will be well :)

[Hoop]

Can you enlighten me to the 10 triggers he was referring to? Pls?.. I cant download the chart he referenced
cheers

Yoda...
Mr P spent a long time refining his MSI the formulae below were tweeked..
I think the formula below was Trackers earlier refinements..I not sure...as Mr P bounced some ideas of refinement my way...



A simple version giving similar results to that of P's MSI (final version)


Need to apply the formula to Metastock software




Result1:= If(C>Mov(C,50,S),1,-1);
Result2:= If(RSI(C,50)>50,1,-1);
Result3:= If(Stoch(50,3)>50,1,-1);
Result4:= If(RMI(CLOSE,36,6)>50,1,-1);
Result5:= If(PDI(50)>MDI(50),1,-1);
Result6:= If(C>Mov(C,5,S),1,-1);
Result7:= If(RSI(C,5)>50,1,-1);
Result8:= If(Stoch(5,3)>50,1,-1);
Result9:= If(RMI(CLOSE,5,6)>50,1,-1);
Result10:= If(PDI(5)>MDI(5),1,-1);

(Result1+Result2+Result3+Result4+Result5+Result6+R esult7+Result8+Result9+Result10)/10;

[Onion]

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/24/market-selloff-is-serious-in-five-charts.html

Nice link.


August is now on track to be the most volatile month for equity markets in 25 years.

:ohmy:

[BeeBop]

Lol....literally a XX twist!

[Kirk]

Its seems like its going to be Blacker Tuesday

[trader_jackson]

Down opened down 1000 points (5%) still down around 2%, it doesn't look like its going into free fall... but it is pretty close... NZX 50 probably down another 1-2% today

[chippy52]

The one poster I sorely miss. Very knowledgeable.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks TJ. Closing 584 points down DOW after being as low as 1000 points 3100 stocks declining 100 lifting.Hilarious the closing bell with lots of clapping and cheering.

[trader_jackson]

Probably lots of cheering as "its over" goes through traders minds... Its been a while since I've seen traders literally running around the trading floor on Wall Street. 1 Trillion wiped of Europe, probably a similar amount in the US (at least when it was down 7.5% at the start)

[Daytr]

A couple of questions.
Is this a very sharp corrections in equities or something bigger?
There are many companies out there particularly in the energy & resources sector sitting on huge amounts of debt and eroding or even negative cashflow.
This is the sort of time when banks start making short term decisions to try & protect their own capital.
Do we see a raft of debt covenants triggered ?
China has been propping up world growth since 2008 and its seen as a very real problem that they are winding things back.
I think China is quite fixable, as in the listed enities with collapsing share prices on the China50 are all state owned.
My biggest area of concern is that debt particularly around the energy sector & the bank's exposure to it.

[winner69]

Mike Hosking says just a healthy correction

Whew ... no worries after all

[drcjp]

Mike Hosking says just a healthy correction

Whew ... no worries after all

Did he tap his pen on the table though? Its not official until he does that......

[Daytr]

Haha, yep because he's an expert... I heard he was up at 4am this morning with calving. ;-)
I'm sure he's related to Key as he has the same glib explanations for everything.
Nothing to see here, move along, its not really a problem, its only a little bit.
And the best of the lot. Who cares! LOL

[Schrodinger]

Did he tap his pen on the table though? Its not official until he does that......

Hosking = shoeshine boy

[stoploss]

A couple of questions.
Is this a very sharp corrections in equities or something bigger?
There are many companies out there particularly in the energy & resources sector sitting on huge amounts of debt and eroding or even negative cashflow.
This is the sort of time when banks start making short term decisions to try & protect their own capital.
Do we see a raft of debt covenants triggered ?
China has been propping up world growth since 2008 and its seen as a very real problem that they are winding things back.
I think China is quite fixable, as in the listed enities with collapsing share prices on the China50 are all state owned.
My biggest area of concern is that debt particularly around the energy sector & the bank's exposure to it.
Daytr, If they are " all state owned" they wouldn't be listed . Are they like MEL , etc ????
btw, being state owned doesn't stop you from going under , Solid Energy, DFC , and nearly Air NZ as an example .

[Daytr]

This is China we are talking about, not a National run NZ government.
Air NZ wasn't state owned, but Labour bailed them out.
Its not if, they are, other than the listed component obviously.
China is trying to develop a fledgling market economy and has created a domestic stock market by partially listing state owned enterprises as a way to tap into markets ie. raise cash. I don't think China is about to let them fail. Also as far as I am aware the Chinese market has basically given back the 170% gains it once had. The Chinese government has plenty of ammunition such as still relatively high interest rates and masses of reserves. Something none of the major Western economies have at their disposal. They also have substantial growth, all be it perhaps slowing.

[Harvey Specter]

Please remember everyone:
7549

[easy money]

Please remember everyone:
7549
Air at $2.53....panic on the street..

[arc]

and...
Even bears can get caught out with swift changes

http://bcs.net.nz/images/iceberg.jpg

[bucko]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/71415726/nzx-slides-2pc-after-chinese-stock-slump-wall-street-rout-drives-nz-dollar-down

I love how Stuff are using this thread for quotes on their breaking news article!!

[Major von Tempsky]

Don't quite get the significance of the polar bear above...something to do with a bear market? The hypothetical extinction of polar bears?

Anyway this is the place to go for a good irrational panic? Hysteria? Lemming like rush? Complete lack of logic? I see Genesis is down despite a brilliant surge in profitability and dividend! NZ shares, unlike Chinese and US shares are not overvalued in terms of fundamentals.
I'm sitting on my hands, spent my dough on some more Spark before their good result and another share I won't name (a turnround prospect).
So I'll have another cup of tea and spend the morning under the bed reading Revelations (last book of the Bible) and laughing. It's a cup of tea, a walk in the park, compared to 1987....

[couta1]

Gosh my portfolio down about 260k, still slept well last night and I'll sleep well tonight also, never been much of a sheep so not easily led to the slaughter house, mind you lambs have never been the most patient of critters:cool:

[KiwiGekko]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/71415726/nzx-slides-2pc-after-chinese-stock-slump-wall-street-rout-drives-nz-dollar-down

I love how Stuff are using this thread for quotes on their breaking news article!!

Classic! I dare not saying anything more here in case I coin a new name like: Terrible Tuesday... Ooops!

[vin]

So I'll have another cup of tea and spend the morning under the bed reading Revelations (last book of the Bible) and laughing.

HA! Cheers for splashing my screen with coffee

[Sgt Pepper]

Don't quite get the significance of the polar bear above...something to do with a bear market? The hypothetical extinction of polar bears?

Anyway this is the place to go for a good irrational panic? Hysteria? Lemming like rush? Complete lack of logic? I see Genesis is down despite a brilliant surge in profitability and dividend! NZ shares, unlike Chinese and US shares are not overvalued in terms of fundamentals.
I'm sitting on my hands, spent my dough on some more Spark before their good result and another share I won't name (a turnround prospect).
So I'll have another cup of tea and spend the morning under the bed reading Revelations (last book of the Bible) and laughing. It's a cup of tea, a walk in the park, compared to 1987....

Major
As an Economist can you make a comment to us non economists on the significance of Chinas massive reserves being in US Dollars in the current environment? Thanks

[KiwiGekko]

Gosh my portfolio down about 260k, still slept well last night and I'll sleep well tonight also, never been much of a sheep so not easily led to the slaughter house, mind you lambs have never been the most patient of critters:cool:

*blink* - I guess you're "all in" then hey couta1.

[couta1]

*blink* - I guess you're "all in" then hey couta1.
Yep even spent the last of my GNE sale on some more Air this morning, go hard or go home ( Looks like many of the sheep have gone home)

[Beagle]

Yep even spent the last of my GNE sale on some more Air this morning, go hard or go home ( Looks like many of the sheep have gone home)

Just a thought, maybe some sheep are trying to avoid the sheering gang sheering them right down to the skin...better to have a decent coat of wool left on you, (even after a haircut) to ward off the winter cold than none :eek2:

[belted galloway]

Gosh my portfolio down about 260k, still slept well last night and I'll sleep well tonight also, never been much of a sheep so not easily led to the slaughter house, mind you lambs have never been the most patient of critters:cool:

You have bigger balls than I do. I'm all sold up, happy to wait out this volatility. These are times for traders, not investors.

The real concern is the lack of depth in some shares currently. Makes getting out in a hurry a very risky exercise.

Hopefully whatever is coming plays out quickly, nothing worse than a prolonged bear market.

[bull....]

haven't been to bed since Monday morning, should have seen the first 20mins wall street simply fascinating to watch and trade.

I think its still to early to bargain hunt nz yet, asx looks more tempting today for daytrading

[Nasi Goreng]

You have bigger balls than I do. I'm all sold up, happy to wait out this volatility. These are times for traders, not investors.

The real concern is the lack of depth in some shares currently. Makes getting out in a hurry a very risky exercise.

Hopefully what ever is coming plays out quickly, nothing worse than a prolonged bear markets.

I think every case is situational. What are your time horizons, are you all in, are the stocks you are holding best in class, was your portfolio doing well before the markets started crashing etc. At the moment, I'm happy to ride this one out, I sold one position yesterday just to add to cash position in case things get really bad.

[couta1]

Just a thought, maybe some sheep are trying to avoid the sheering gang sheering them right down to the skin...
Nah mate this correction is just like when we used to shear the Merino's in the high country with a snow comb, still plenty of wool left on for protection from the cold but unfortunately the sheep panicking at the moment have lost all their fleeces plus a lot of skin.

[Aaron]

Well the falls in price might be enough to trigger some margin calls. Small change so far compared with gains since 2009 but once margin calls are made maybe some spooked people nearing retirement pull their money from their managed funds so institutions need to start selling.

Who knows the usual solution is more cheap money from central banks to pay more for shares and property. I am sticking with what I have invested but will wait plenty before investing any more.

[bull....]

Well the falls in price might be enough to trigger some margin calls. Small change so far compared with gains since 2009 but once margin calls are made maybe some spooked people nearing retirement pull their money from their managed funds so institutions need to start selling.

Who knows the usual solution is more cheap money from central banks to pay more for shares and property. I am sticking with what I have invested but will wait plenty before investing any more.

that's the problem people pull there money from funds so they have to sell to meet redemptions becomes a vious cycle, could be different this time as they are sitting on more cash, that could mean they will be doing less buying? as they use there cash to meet redemptions

[Nasi Goreng]

Maybe those who have sold will be able to buy a new fleece with the profits that they just locked in.

[Beagle]

Maybe those who have sold will be able to buy a new fleece with the profits that they just locked in.

Or buy the whole herd back at a cheaper price :)

[Bobcat.]

haven't been to bed since Monday morning, should have seen the first 20mins wall street simply fascinating to watch and trade.

I think its still to early to bargain hunt nz yet, asx looks more tempting today for daytrading

If you think Wall Street was dramatic, did you see what happened to the NZD? Plummeted to under 60c USD just after 1am before shooting back up to over 64c. Similar for the AUD but less extreme.

[couta1]

Maybe those who have sold will be able to buy a new fleece with the profits that they just locked in.
Yes but the question is how many have actually made any profit? something we can't know but I'd hazard a quess that a bigger percentage of sellers are taking a loss right now,especially the panickers.

[Hoop]

The one poster I sorely miss. Very knowledgeable.

Mr P's TA discipline .... while the NZX50 index MSI was in the red ..strict rules are actioned... compulsory sell any NZ stock that triggers TA sell signals.

NZX50 MSI is in the red

[winner69]

Mr P's TA discipline .... while the NZX50 index MSI was in the red ..strict rules are actioned... compulsory sell any NZ stock that triggers TA sell signals.

NZX50 MSI is in the red

That's how it should be played I reckon .... except for those who hold forever, they are into shares for another purpose and expect to see 20%-30%-40% declines every now and again

I like keeping most of the gains ... Mr P said 'the market giveth but the market also taketh.'

[couta1]

Hey SLi is up, now who'd have thought:eek2: This dog may yet bark.

[LAC]

Hi All,
Can someone please comment/give their opinion on this.
I see so much of selling and my portfolio is in red like most people on here but 90% of the shares I own are all dividend paying shares with PE's between 10-20. I have not sold anything and I know as many on here have stated - when things get this bad sell sell sell, I am only 30 and I see with just dividends alone for the next couple years will bring me back in the black. I just don't really understand how taking the losses now and putting the $ in the bank with 3% interest or 5% on my investment property would be better than letting this play out. Is my thinking completely wrong? Should I be protecting capital?

[ratkin]

If you are a long term investor in solid companies, just ignore the market and get on with your life. Certainly wouldnt be selling up. Think about buying a few more if anything

meant as reply to above

[ratkin]

That's how it should be played I reckon .... except for those who hold forever, they are into shares for another purpose and expect to see 20%-30%-40% declines every now and again

I like keeping most of the gains ... Mr P said 'the market giveth but the market also taketh.'

For investors. Buying when Ps indicator was ar its worst has proved quite profitable. 2009 turned out to be a great time to buy stocks, for those with a longer timeframme

[Jantar]

If you are a long term investor in solid companies, just ignore the market and get on with your life. Certainly wouldnt be selling up. Think about buying a few more if anything

meant as reply to above
I get my annual bonus from work in 2 weeks, and my plans are to buy while everyone else is selling. :t_up:

[ratkin]

I get my annual bonus from work in 2 weeks, and my plans are to buy while everyone else is selling. :t_up:

Its very hard to do, but worth it. Sadly the market will probably have bounced basck by then

[Bobcat.]

The Nikkei has opened down almost 2% but the US futures for tomorrow's open are up a whopping 200 points.

http://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/

[winner69]

Hey SLi is up, now who'd have thought:eek2: This dog may yet bark.

and TTK was a while ago

You picking real winners now mate

[NZSilver]

This is a significant downtrend folks. No one can tell what the future will bring but I would say it will drop further before it turns. Yesterday was a grace day that allowed people to make a decision - hold or sell some of the portfolio (or buy more..). Some were expecting it to bounce back, however last night the down had one of its biggest intra day drops and closed another 3ish % down. The Chinese are pulling all the strings of intervention right now and their stock exchange is still going down (what would things look like with no intervention!!). Ive heavily cut my holdings (have been for 2 months now but got very aggressive yesterday, luckily most were still on significant gains - a few were not). But it is critical to preserve capital unless you really can ride it out for 2-5 years - if things dont turn. Because the worst thing you can do is say "Im long term & I dont care about day to day movements" and then sell later on when you may be sitting on much larger paper losses. It may bounce back but from what I have read - and Im very weak technically, however it looks like some major points have been broken, I wish it wasnt but this really may be more than a bit of volatility that turn positive again.

[couta1]

Hi All,
Can someone please comment/give their opinion on this.
I see so much of selling and my portfolio is in red like most people on here but 90% of the shares I own are all dividend paying shares with PE's between 10-20. I have not sold anything and I know as many on here have stated - when things get this bad sell sell sell, I am only 30 and I see with just dividends alone for the next couple years will bring me back in the black. I just don't really understand how taking the losses now and putting the $ in the bank with 3% interest or 5% on my investment property would be better than letting this play out. Is my thinking completely wrong? Should I be protecting capital?
Let me remind you of a true story about a rich American gent who invested heavily in a variety of solid stocks over a ten year period, over that period there were many Macro and micro corrections to the markets due to a variety of abnormal worldwide events, meantime he just enjoyed doing what he always did his golf,fishing etc and low and behold at the end of ten years he had more than doubled his money.

[BlackPeter]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/71415726/nzx-slides-2pc-after-chinese-stock-slump-wall-street-rout-drives-nz-dollar-down

I love how Stuff are using this thread for quotes on their breaking news article!!

we are famous :t_up:! But makes you worry about the quality of the rest of their economical analysis ... :scared:

[couta1]

and TTK was a while ago

You picking real winners now mate
Dead right mate and if they go up by another 300% I'll be back in the blue.

[NZSilver]

LAC - if you really dont need the money in the next few years for a house or buisness or kids or whatever etc then hold them all to you are 65 - by then you will have gone through multiple events like this - and your portfolio will be worth a lot more as long as you have solid companies. but if you need the money in the short to medium term, don't get caught having to sell for massive losses if the market does really take a dive - its all about risk - you could reduce you risk by selling some of your portfolio and keeping a portion of it etc. That would be my advice.

[Bobcat.]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a sucker's rally tomorrow on Wall street and elsewhere - it may even last a day or two...but then those investors who are currently regretting not selling last week will do so, the auto bots will kick in, and down we go again. History repeating.

[Daytr]

Got to give it to Goldmansachs. Love em or hate em they called this six months ago saying global equities were over valued.
Thank goodness I generally listened to them as its unusual for a bank to talk down stocks & that's why I took notice.
US company profits have been falling, some dramatically others just not justifying their valuation.
Energy stocks & debt a very real concern. Its a huge sector with what I understand around a trillion of debt in the US alone.
Then media stocks started to do the same lately. Multi Nationals obviously impacted by a high dollar.
When 'things' i.e. commodities are priced lower dollar returns are naturally going to be lower as well off a lower price.
Valuation needs to reflect that. Its the ugly word that all Central Bankers dread.
Deflation.

[Daytr]

Good luck with that one Sgt Pepper.
Careful you may be done for insubordination! haha


Major
As an Economist can you make a comment to us non economists on the significance of Chinas massive reserves being in US Dollars in the current environment? Thanks

[NZSilver]

Deflation.

I wasnt going to mention it, but it did cross my mind yesterday..... And what do you want to hold - cash! as its buying power increases!

[Beagle]

Hi All,
Can someone please comment/give their opinion on this.
I see so much of selling and my portfolio is in red like most people on here but 90% of the shares I own are all dividend paying shares with PE's between 10-20. I have not sold anything and I know as many on here have stated - when things get this bad sell sell sell, I am only 30 and I see with just dividends alone for the next couple years will bring me back in the black. I just don't really understand how taking the losses now and putting the $ in the bank with 3% interest or 5% on my investment property would be better than letting this play out. Is my thinking completely wrong? Should I be protecting capital?

A heck of a lot depends upon your personal financial circumstances. At a guess at age 30 I would say if you need some of the money in a few years for a house deposit, if you're about to have a new baby or need some of the money for another reason soon or think your job is insecure (e.g. the Glenbrook steel workers) then common sense suggests you need to take steps to mitigate the risk of the market correction e.g. sell half. OTOH if you have no near term need for access to your capital and are in a secure well paid job or secure self employment earning good income then progressively dollar cost averaging down and selectively buying opportunities gradually over the next few weeks might make sense. Hope that helps.

[BlackPeter]

and TTK was a while ago

You picking real winners now mate

Your post inspired me to look at TTK. Up 10 cents in the last hour ;) - was this you buying?

[trader_jackson]

The recovery is beginning, now that the retail investors have "finished jumping ship", less emotional institutional investors are beginning to see the fundamentals are still very strong... NZX 50 now up almost 1% from the lows (now only down 1.6%) and ASX didn't have a "blood bath" like some were expecting (was down 0.8%), now actually up... so:

ladies and gentlemen... Start your buying!

[couta1]

Gee nothing black about Spark hit $3.16 not long ago, got this one right anyway.

[bull....]

spark rocks

[couta1]

spark rocks
Yep back over $3.30 before the divvy I reckon.

[trader_jackson]

ASX up almost 1%... well bears I hope you enjoyed your day and a half... but the bulls are back in business

[trader_jackson]

sorry ASX up 1.2%, and NZX down less than 1% (its moving up so fast I am struggling to keep up...)

[skid]

Dead right mate and if they go up by another 300% I'll be back in the blue.

Coutts ,you are a real eccentric--I hope no one is taking you seriously as it is dangerous---did you get around to reading post #64?

Those who bought big awhile back are the real smart ones--they bought CASH with SHARES

[Hoop]

The buying drought is over ...It's raining (dead?) cats and dogs now:)

[Beagle]

The buying drought is over ...It's raining (dead?) cats and dogs now:)

That's got to be the post of the entire thread...LOL absolute classic. Suckers rally or dead cat bounce take your pick.

[couta1]

Coutts ,you are a real eccentric--I hope no one is taking you seriously as it is dangerous---did you get around to reading post #64?

Those who bought big awhile back are the real smart ones--they bought CASH with SHARES Hey Skid I bought TTk at $2.80 and SLi at $2.25 so I'll let you do the maths to see if I'm serious or not, its not dangerous its just honesty.

[Schrodinger]

Hey Skid I bought TTk at $2.80 and SLi at $2.25 so I'll let you do the maths to see if I'm serious or not, its not dangerous its just honesty.

Aussie market looking ok considering. Stocks like FXL up a nice amount. Dead cat bounce?

[Daytr]

I agree Hoop, I think selling opportunity. ASX200 is up over 5.5%!
The more I think about it, the more I think about what is happening around the oil market and how the global economy has been built on oil.
That risk with oil is still out there & coal obviously.
Lots of debt, lots of derivatives.
China is really the only reason the global economy has any semblance of growth in the last seven years.
Maybe we need a real meltdown as propping up markets and bail outs just defer the problem and nothing changes and nobody learns.

[LAC]

Thanks for some of the advice, I think once I actually posted on this thread I seem to have gotten a few replies from people who are holding/buying. Prior to that all I was reading was gloom and it kind of made me think twice (am I really doing the right thing when everyone else is selling) But as NZsilver/Roger have noted, I am not in a hurry to get access to the funds. I may actually look at purchasing a few more this week. I have learnt a few things from people on this site in the past couple weeks, thanks to them as well.

[Major von Tempsky]

That's a blow for The World According to Andrew Little - the Australian sharemarket has gone up....

[Arbitrage]

What is Buffett doing?

[trader_jackson]

ASX up 2.1%, NZX 50 down less than 0.5%, one of the biggest market swings I have seen, not surprising because things "were getting silly"... expecting NZX to be in the green by the end of the day (we've already moved up 2%, lets move up another 2!)

Correction 2.6%... hard to keep up..

[bull....]

asx lovely day anz was my pick at the open brought some cfds at 4785 last night too

[Omega]

Be interesting to see if China will also pull back later in the day after being down 6% in early trading

[arc]

Seems too soon to be bouncing back up??

NZX50
http://bcs.net.nz/images/chart-nzx50.gif


NZX ALL Ords
http://bcs.net.nz/images/chart-allords.gif

I think I agree with HOOP... dead cat bounce.
Either that or the HFT boys are faking everyone out while collecting ammo for the next downhill run...

[trader_jackson]

Well there really wasn't much reason for it to drop so much anyway... yes there is china, but a lot of the worry is just hot air... so I'm not surprised markets seem to be recovering so fast

[BIRMANBOY]

Ah hah that explains your considered post...stands out like the aforementioned dogs...well you know what. Traders and doom mechants.....yah gotta love em...makes the markets so much more volatile. Should be some good buying opportunities however, so fun to watch it play out.
Lol....literally a XX twist!

[Daytr]

Nice. Have you taken profits yet? ;-)
ASX200 was up 7% at one stage!

TJ either you haven't been watching or you choose to ignore.
There has been plenty going on other than just China to warrant a very strong correction.
US corporate earnings for a start and then there is the giant oil slick that underpins a hell of a lot of the world's economy.


asx lovely day anz was my pick at the open brought some cfds at 4785 last night too

[beetills]

Peter Cardillo of Rockwell Global Funds has just been on Aljazzerra saying that China's growth might only be 6% this yeat so it might feel like a recession but it won't be in his opinion.He also said that the response to China's slowdown has been over exagerated.
onwards and upwards.

[trader_jackson]

http://www.theonion.com/article/shoddy-chinese-made-stock-market-collapses-51163

And we're (NZX 50) about to pass into the green... like many markets around the world...

[drcjp]

quite a few folk wondering right now if they've been duped.
and they have of course............

[vin]

Im in a 'wtf' headspace right now.

[Daytr]

Markets are behaving irrationally and have been for years.
That's what happens when you value money at zero, i.e. zero interest rates.
Equities rallying on bad news because it meant zero rates or stimulus.
Absolute shocking economics and will come home to roost.
Maybe this is it, maybe not, but you cannot have CBs propping up markets for ever & still call it free market capitalism.
When you think about it, its really socialism, but just for the well heeled.
Marx must be spinning in his grave! LOL

[LAC]

What is Buffett doing?
At the Dairy Queen munching on some junk contemplating what to buy next?

[Baa_Baa]

March 2011?


Beware the relief rallies (I'll leave you to figure out where we are in the cycle)

[arc]

Markets are behaving irrationally and have been for years.
That's what happens when you value money at zero, i.e. zero interest rates.
Equities rallying on bad news because it meant zero rates or stimulus.
Absolute shocking economics and will come home to roost.
Maybe this is it, maybe not, but you cannot have CBs propping up markets for ever & still call it free market capitalism.
When you think about it, its really socialism, but just for the well heeled.
Marx must be spinning in his grave! LOL

HFT has rewritten the rules. It no longer takes a few weeks to crash and months to recover, America had a 1 day FLASH CRASH in May 2010, the NYSE halted, and was back the next day, all smiles, totally confused, in the dark over what had caused the event...

We now know it keeps causing these events, while removing market capital and stifling productive work.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading)...At the turn of the 21st century, HFT trades had an execution time of several seconds, whereas by 2010 this had decreased to milli- (1/1,000) and even microseconds (1/1,000,000)

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading)...On September 2, 2013, Italy became the world's first country to introduce a tax specifically targeted at HFT, charging a levy of 0.02% on equity transactions lasting less than 0.5 seconds.
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading)

[Bobcat.]

Commodities recovering. Before this week, they were already under-priced, yesterday falling to a 16-year low(!), and so we may have just witnessed their bottom. Oil touched $40/b and is now climbing nicely along with the Canadian dollar.

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/brent.php

Accordingly, the Australian dollar also recovering (since 10am today it's up 1c against the USD and more against the Euro). The last three days of panic sell of commodities has been overplayed I would say, given (unlike 2008/09) they were never part of any bubble.

Could be a good time this week to go long on a few commodities, and probably the Aussie dollar as well. Thoughts?

[bull....]

dow actually closed last night pretty much right on low point of flash crash last October 2014 - no idea weather it will hold

[RGR367]

Please don't let it finish yet as we're not yet done with our buying :cool: This is the time to really build your fortress.

[nextbigthing]

http://www.nzonscreen.com/title/i-see-red-1979

Maybe a little early, however;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAgnJDJN4VA

[Nasi Goreng]

uh oh, is the tide about to turn?

[BeeBop]

Hi All,
Can someone please comment/give their opinion on this.
I see so much of selling and my portfolio is in red like most people on here but 90% of the shares I own are all dividend paying shares with PE's between 10-20. I have not sold anything and I know as many on here have stated - when things get this bad sell sell sell, I am only 30 and I see with just dividends alone for the next couple years will bring me back in the black. I just don't really understand how taking the losses now and putting the $ in the bank with 3% interest or 5% on my investment property would be better than letting this play out. Is my thinking completely wrong? Should I be protecting capital?

I can't completely comment but I can say that all of my shares are dividend payers. My nzx ones are all on a low PE and pay a nice dividend. My portfolio is still in a large positive as I have been doing this for 21 years. Early on in my larger investing, if I knew the share was good, I would just sit and wait...the worst time was around 2011 and 2012 but I still had dividends. Depends on how you do this, but I always used to run on valuations and would sell when it was no longer such a good deal, then I would lock in my profits by paying down mortgages. Right now I have plenty of cash in the market but am not putting more in in the short- term as our income is in USD so I am focusing on returning cash to NZD, again locking in "profits" on exchange rate into reducing our LVR. It does depend on your individual situation. I would not lock in a loss on a good well valued share unless it was money that I needed to stay afloat (in that instance I would not personally have had it in the market anyway) but I am old fashioned and run a conservative slow approach.

[warthog]

What is Buffett doing?

Or perhaps more instructively, "What would Buffett do?" :)

[Bobcat.]

EUR/AUD is a good indicator - it's been climbing solidly for the past week, then fell this morning until now....it's climbing again.

USD/JPY and AUD/JPY also good indicators. Both started turning 15 mins ago.

[bull....]

Hi All,
Can someone please comment/give their opinion on this.
I see so much of selling and my portfolio is in red like most people on here but 90% of the shares I own are all dividend paying shares with PE's between 10-20. I have not sold anything and I know as many on here have stated - when things get this bad sell sell sell, I am only 30 and I see with just dividends alone for the next couple years will bring me back in the black. I just don't really understand how taking the losses now and putting the $ in the bank with 3% interest or 5% on my investment property would be better than letting this play out. Is my thinking completely wrong? Should I be protecting capital?

I took a mtge to buy meridian shares even brought more after there latest profit ill use the divs + my wifes salary to pay it off - I don't care if the price declines because I don't think there gonna go bust anytime soon and im pretty sure over time ill make more than any capital loss from the divs.
bit like an investment property really

[Daytr]

Do you really think this is just about HFT?
All cycles are getting quicker & quicker, but HFT in reality has little to do with a cycle's span.
Fundamentals don't change just because you can trade in milliseconds.
HFT just creates a lot more noise at times & some times for no apparent (fundamental) reason.
I would beg to differ that this is just about a HFT smash & grab.


HFT has rewritten the rules. It no longer takes a few weeks to crash and months to recover, America had a 1 day FLASH CRASH in May 2010, the NYSE halted, and was back the next day, all smiles, totally confused, in the dark over what had caused the event...

We now know it keeps causing these events, while removing market capital and stifling productive work.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading)...At the turn of the 21st century, HFT trades had an execution time of several seconds, whereas by 2010 this had decreased to milli- (1/1,000) and even microseconds (1/1,000,000)

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading)...On September 2, 2013, Italy became the world's first country to introduce a tax specifically targeted at HFT, charging a levy of 0.02% on equity transactions lasting less than 0.5 seconds.
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading)

[bull....]

Hi All,
Can someone please comment/give their opinion on this.
I see so much of selling and my portfolio is in red like most people on here but 90% of the shares I own are all dividend paying shares with PE's between 10-20. I have not sold anything and I know as many on here have stated - when things get this bad sell sell sell, I am only 30 and I see with just dividends alone for the next couple years will bring me back in the black. I just don't really understand how taking the losses now and putting the $ in the bank with 3% interest or 5% on my investment property would be better than letting this play out. Is my thinking completely wrong? Should I be protecting capital?

I took a mtge to buy meridian shares even brought more after there latest profit ill use the divs + my wifes salary to pay it off - I don't care if the price declines because I don't think there gonna go bust anytime soon and im pretty sure over time ill make more than any capital loss from the divs.
bit like an investment property really

[arc]

Do you really think this is just about HFT?
All cycles are getting quicker & quicker, but HFT in reality has little to do with a cycle's span.
Fundamentals don't change just because you can trade in milliseconds.
HFT just creates a lot more noise at times & some times for no apparent (fundamental) reason.
I would beg to differ that this is just about a HFT smash & grab.

Re-reading my txt I suppose it does sound a bit over the top. No I dont think its just/only about hft. I object to their continual skimming, its like "protection money".

I have no trouble tipping a waitress, its voluntary and a show of good faith/appreciation.
If your bank manager pocketed $1K from your new mortgage for himself, and did it to every customer...
Your paying a middleman every time you trade, both buy and sell...

[trader_jackson]

Well the NZX 50 was back in black, as I speculated earlier on when we were still down about 1%... ASX still up well over 2% (2.5% currently), rest of Asia bouncing back nicely, will be interesting to see if the US and Europe bounce back... (they should do, analysts have always reinforced there was more in the bull run, although yes a temporary dip wasn't unexpected, and good to shake things out)

[pak]

If that was it we got off lightly. However my gut feel Is that the worst is yet to come, maybe after one last run after reporting season. Interested to know the mind set of the baby boomers out there who no longer work. Are you looking to lock in gains now or keep going long? Is that democratic cliff just around the corner? Interested in your thoughts baby boomers.

[waddis]

Shanghai composite index down just about 7% breaking through 3000....down now 26% in the last 5 sessions, makes tomorrow interesting!

[trader_jackson]

looks like "we can't quite take our seat belts off yet", hope everyone still has their hats...

[sb9]

To be perfectly honest, I think the Chinese situation is bit overhyped. Yes, they're some concerns around the regulation of their markets, but how do we know where to even start let alone their authorities. It's the situation created by them and the bubble is burst now and reality bites!!!

Its time each market stands on their merit to large extent, agreed we can't ignore what's happening around us but we can't get go on forever on their plight!!!

just my 2c...

[easy money]

looks like "we can't quite take our seat belts off yet", hope everyone still has their hats...
Market futures in the green...is it really the end..http://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/

[BeeBop]

Whilst not the same, the past two trading days remind me a bit of 2001. We were about to travel for a couple of weeks so we cashed in our small 26k NZD value of shares (asx stocks like gtp, hwe to name just two). We had thought we had valued them well (oblivious to their debt levels) and sold them on an "up" having made a very very tidy profit. We happily travelled and landed back on 9/11 2001. Took off to bed (resident in Asia at the time) and then boom....9/11 hit. Accordingly we waited for a few days then repurchased those same shares, now down back at our original buy price. Quickly they tracked back up and we sold....then the anthrax scare...so we bought those same shares again...and Held them for quite some time. The net outcome was more than nice. On returning to NZ, we sold to put a good deposit on a home (before the main property boom) and paid our deposit out of our access brokerage account 2 days before access brokerage went belly up. Looked back at the shares a couple of years later.....hwe (Henry walker elton) had gone bust some months later....heck, I looked at their numbers again...I wouldn't touch them now.

What did I learn? Buy my stocks after valuing them, market cycles are sometimes "useful". I learned that in those days I didn't know much even though I thought I did (no idea about company debt levels..naive wee investor!). Sometimes luck is just there as is bad luck. Always, always, always, never ever (for my family) will I not secure my share gains!

[BlackCross]

The world's financial focus seems to just be on China and the Far East at the moment. They seem to be ignoring what continuing low oil and other commodity prices will be doing to the economies of some of the major producers (Russia, Brazil etc.)... Perhaps the hedge funds are saving that one up for the next leg down?

[trader_jackson]

Interest rate cut in China, American markets rebounding, European markets extremely strong... should be a good day for NZX (and ASX)

[ratkin]

Interest rate cut in China, American markets rebounding, European markets extremely strong... should be a good day for NZX (and ASX)


Not much of a bounce, might be ok for a week or so but expect trouble. NZ ok but OZ looks a mess, and BHP wont help

[Joshuatree]

US markets finishing down Dow down 200 points.Volatility continues for awhile yet.

[couta1]

US markets finishing down Dow down 200 points.Volatility continues for awhile yet.
US markets were up until just on close after being up all day so not as bad it seems ( Probably just the tail end nervous Nellie's exiting)

[Harvey Specter]

5% movement and the Bears won. This will play out for a while.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

US markets were up until just on close after being up all day so not as bad it seems ( Probably just the tail end nervous Nellie's exiting)

That makes it even worse than it appears. If indeed this is the first leg down of a bear market cycle, which it is looking likely, then you are in for a rude awakening and some serious capital destruction.

[trader_jackson]

Well it will be interesting to see how markets in Australasia react today, mainly Australia (NZ is to small and being mostly pessimists, and very good at talking ourselves into a recession, will probably open lower)

Selling in the US was probably as a result of traders getting nervous about how Chinese market (and Japan etc) will go... seems like people are selling shares because they're worried other people are selling shares (not necessarily because the fundamentals are dramatically worse than a month ago)

[couta1]

That makes it even worse than it appears. If indeed this is the first leg down of a bear market cycle, which it is looking likely, then you are in for a rude awakening and some serious capital destruction.
All will be revealed overnight tonight to see if this pattern continues or not. PS- Paper loss capital destruction is only therhetical unless you sell.

[winner69]

A lot of noise ....by the minute, by the hour, by the day

The real question is where will we be at, say, end of September

Today's noise either might have meant nothing or the big warning that the crash that has to happen sometime is started.

[PSE]

All will be revealed overnight tonight to see if this pattern continues or not. PS- Paper loss capital destruction is only therhetical unless you sell.
Can be a real loss if you pay too much or the company suffers a permanent unexpected decline.
No point waiting for newspaper stock to rebound.
Absolutely winner its all noise, wait 6 months then turn up as the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff. Hopefully the panic continues and provides some real bargains.

[NZSilver]

If the U.S. market increase followed by a late sell off to end lower + the last 2 consecutive days of large drops and the last 2 or so months of a slow decline dosnt ring alarm bells then I hope you are prepared to hold paper losses for a long time. You can never know what the future will bring but I think there is a high probability we are seeing the bear market taking hold resulting in a sustained downturn in capital markets. Don't put your head in the sand! Preserve at least a portion of your capital and reduce exposure to the current risk.

[Daytr]

I think there is a giant mis-read of the Chinese economy.
It has been changing gear now for about two years from an all out buy & build everything and anything economy to a more service based economy.
China has been the only economy that has kept the world financially afloat since 2008 and that is why it would be concerning if it too had a melt down.
I would suggest after wiping out most of the gains for the year, Chinese stocks are probably now a bargain.
But how to value them? Its murky at best.
There is a massive shift on what the 20th century was built on, oil and coal.
These wont be the fuels of the future, that is obvious, but there are companies, countries and people that are refusing to adapt and that will cause chaos. I remember seeing Peabody pay huge amounts for a coal company in Australia in 2011. It was so apparent to me that they were not only paying over the top price for pretty average assets, that instead of being a coal business, they needed to adapt into an energy business that included green energy, to diversify. Peabody are/were the largest listed coal miner in the world.
In 2011 their share price was USD72.70 at a peak, about the time they made the acquisition.
Their share price now is around $1.65 & was $1.05 only a few days ago.
This is the sort of destruction of wealth that will be associated with fossil fuels.
The debt associated with oil and coal is huge & the commercial banks have massive exposure.
I would suggest over a trillion dollars of debt (not all bank debt), let alone share holder value.
This rout has very little to do with China & a lot more to do with oil & the associated caused deflation.

[couta1]

Can be a real loss if you pay too much or the company suffers a permanent unexpected decline.
No point waiting for newspaper stock to rebound.
Absolutely winner its all noise, wait 6 months then turn up as the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff. Hopefully the panic continues and provides some real bargains.
I hear what your saying but companies with those sort of declines normally occur due to fundamental changes rather than panic driven noise like we are currently experiencing.

[Beagle]

If the U.S. market increase followed by a late sell off to end lower + the last 2 consecutive days of large drops and the last 2 or so months of a slow decline dosnt ring alarm bells then I hope you are prepared to hold paper losses for a long time. You can never know what the future will bring but I think there is a high probability we are seeing the bear market taking hold resulting in a sustained downturn in capital markets. Don't put your head in the sand! Preserve at least a portion of your capital and reduce exposure to the current risk.

Agreed. I called the small bounce in some markets yesterday a dead cat bounce and stand by that. If the cat isn't dead its very, very sick. Since the GFC world growth has ostensibly been built to a large extent on China's growth and surrounding growth in that region. Emerging markets are down ~25%. The bear is with us like it or not. Beware the bear...this one has claws and teeth IMO.

[Nasi Goreng]

Couta, I think there is a bit of sense in all strategies and they can all work.

I remember you saying that you owned TTK and SLI. I actually don't know anything about these companies or what they do but I did take a moment to look at their charts and they are dreadful. If it was my portfolio, these are exactly the sort of stocks I would now dump. I would hold on to the companies who are going to be bullet proof and stock price valuations may swing with the market. The market is trying to tell you something with these type of stock and the warning signs were there before any big sell off. I wouldn't be comfortable with a paper loss on these type of companies at all.

[NZSilver]

Daytr you posts have been great, thanks for sharing your thoughts. I agree coal has had a hard time over the last few years and is slowly getting pushed aside - partly by fossil fuels such as gas. Yep it will take a fair bit to see oil and its related products go though, it's immersed in every aspect of our lives as you would know - not just the the fuel to run cars but all our food we buy at the supermarkets literally contains molecules that were once molecules in fossil fuels - thanks to nitrogen fertilisers. Actually most of the nitrogen/carbon/hydrogen in everyone's body (making up mainly all your proteins) was once fossil fuels!

[stoploss]

All will be revealed overnight tonight to see if this pattern continues or not. PS- Paper loss capital destruction is only therhetical unless you sell.

Couta , just trying to help here , I think I sent you a PM a while back re some good books to read - Market Wizards, and One up on Wall St ( Peter Lynch )
Somewhere in one of those is a good example of why a loss is a LOSS paper or whatever. It gives an example something like
Say you purchased 1000 XRO shares @ $ 39.00 , now trading @ $ 13.00 ish So $ 39,000 now worth $ 13000 as the trader did not have a S/l or a capital preservation plan in place .....
Obviously the shares have to Treble to get back to even .... The question I will ask how many shares do you own that have Trebled ?
It's hard to find one to double , so the bottom line is a loss is a loss even if it's on paper it is a real loss .
Treat every hard earned dollar as something precious , not " she'll be right mate "

[bull....]

actually the action on wall st was good it was better that it closed down than up ( sounds weird I know ) but I think a bottom is trying to be made and ill be looking for a bounce tonight ( hopefully no guarantees ever )

[couta1]

Nasi Goreng, I believe SLI is actually quite undervalued going by its latest result trading on a 1 to 1 revenue multiples compared to most other SAS companies trading on 1 to 4 multiples. TTk is a different animal and the one I would rate as having the least chance of ever getting my capital back, however it still pays a dividend so I continue to hold it, what will its share price be in 5 years? who really knows, cheers. Stoploss thanks looked at some of that material, I certainly don't treat hard earned money as she'll be right but take a long view with plenty of patience and hang in there type grit.

[Daytr]

Thanks NZ Silver. I agree oil will be with us, most likely for hundreds of years to come for various uses.
However the majority of oil is used for transport and heating and its those sorts of applications that will be the first to go over time.
Some commentators who I respect and I think are revolutionary thinkers, say we are heading into the era of free energy or there abouts.
When you think about it, its so simple with the natural forces we have & the advances in technology.
I don't think we are that far from that & this is what the Saudis fear.


Daytr you posts have been great, thanks for sharing your thoughts. I agree coal has had a hard time over the last few years and is slowly getting pushed aside - partly by fossil fuels such as gas. Yep it will take a fair bit to see oil and its related products go though, it's immersed in every aspect of our lives as you would know - not just the the fuel to run cars but all our food we buy at the supermarkets literally contains molecules that were once molecules in fossil fuels - thanks to nitrogen fertilisers. Actually most of the nitrogen/carbon/hydrogen in everyone's body (making up mainly all your proteins) was once fossil fuels!

[twotic]

I hear what your saying but companies with those sort of declines normally occur due to fundamental changes rather than panic driven noise like we are currently experiencing.
Couta, do you seriously believe the recent declines in the market are all "noise"? That seems like a very strange belief given very material events that have unfolded over recent times:
Devaluation of the Yuan
Sharp slowdown in manufacturing activity
GDP growth below governments targets (the slowest in 20+ years)
Private debt to GDP levels >200%
Huge declines in world commodity prices attributed greatly to reduced Chinese demand

I'm sorry mate, I just can't understand how you can possibly put all this down to noise (randomness).

[couta1]

Okay i think I'm going to leave things right there, I don't won't to clutter up this thread talking about individual companies nor start arguing with people,each to their own I say, those that want to sell then sell but I've chosen to hang in there,cheers PS- Twotic I refer to noise in the sense of a temporal situation not randomness.

[arc]

News is all over the place.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/25/us-markets-attempt-recovery.html

[trader_jackson]

Positive start here, NZX 50 up 0.5%

[twotic]

OkayOkay I think I'm going to leave things right there, I don't won't to clutter up this thread talking about individual companies nor start arguing with people,each to their own I say, those that want to sell then sell but I've chosen to hang in there,cheers PS- Twotic I refer to noise in the sense of a temporal situation.
OK, perhaps the wrong choice of words then. Noise in economic terms represents randomness and one would argue much of these events are anything but random. That being said I'm not sure what you mean by "noise in the sense of a temporal situation"? That still seems to suggest you think there is nothing material underlying the last few days of market declines. I'm interested in your logic.

In my opinion the writing has been on the wall for a while. Debt levels in China are through the roof, and the economy is well over capacity. Be careful mate, there is obviously a chance that this current down turn might reverse in the short term via Chinese government intervention, but long term the issues with the Chinese economy are very real and can not be fixed with short term policies.

[couta1]

Twotic probably the wrong choice of words, what I mean by panic driven noise is in the context of continual media driven negativity causing both nervous holders and even the not so nervous to sell stocks.

[twotic]

Twotic probably the wrong choice of words, what I mean by panic driven noise is in the context of continual media driven negativity causing both nervous holders and even the not so nervous to sell stocks.
OK, I see what you mean. What do you think about the medium to long term prospects of the Chinese economy? IMO that is the key question.

[ratkin]

Good that kiwis are so chipper, but seriously why is out market going up? By rights the DOW should have had a decent bounce today. Lets see if the Aussies are little more realistic

[Daytr]

Twotic, Chinese reduced demand greatly impacting commodity prices is completely over stated by the media and banks. Sure its softened/weakened, but the main driver has been over supply. The ego of bigger companies like Rio & BHP having a race to the bottom.
Easier to blame the Chinese than say they actually got it wrong. And when you think about it, its Western demand that has stalled, since 2008.
China's exponential consumption growth could never last and those who banked on it literally, were fools.
China still has a massive amount of building still to go on, but they don't need to do it all now and that's one of the differences between the last 15 years & the next. I was asked in 2011 at client function I was a speaker at, in regards these empty cities in China with a million apartments & if we should be worried. My answer was that they had 99 million more to build, but that doesn't mean it has to happen tomorrow. The Chinese think generationally, not just about the next election (well they don't need to do they!).


Couta, do you seriously believe the recent declines in the market are all "noise"? That seems like a very strange belief given very material events that have unfolded over recent times:
Devaluation of the Yuan
Sharp slowdown in manufacturing activity
GDP growth below governments targets (the slowest in 20+ years)
Private debt to GDP levels >200%
Huge declines in world commodity prices attributed greatly to reduced Chinese demand

I'm sorry mate, I just can't understand how you can possibly put all this down to noise (randomness).

[twotic]

Twotic, Chinese reduced demand reduced greatly affecting commodity prices is completely over stated by the media and banks. Sure its softened/weakened, but the main driver has been over supply. The ego of bigger companies like Rio & BHP having a race to the bottom.
Easier to blame the Chinese than say they actually got it wrong. And when you think about it its Western demand that has stalled, since 2008.
China's exponential consumption growth could never last and those who banked on it literally, were fools.
China still has a massive amount of building still to go on, but they don't need to do it all now and that's one of the differences between the last 15 years & the next. I was asked in 2011 at client function I was a speaker at in regards these empty cities in China with a million apartments & if we should be worried. My answer was that they had 99 million more to build, but that doesn't mean it has to happen tomorrow. The Chinese think generationally, not just about the next election (well they don't need to do they!).


I agree completely that over supply was/is a significant issue. Econ 101 with the old supply and demand graphs right! You are essentially just adding another point to the list I made though as to why none of this should be considered noise.

Not sure I agree with you regarding the implication that reduced western demand is a bigger driver than Chinese. Oil prices are a different kettle of fish and I agree that Chinese demand as been only a small factor driving prices down. On the other hand, agriculture, metals (this is the big one), & coal have been significantly affected via reduced Chinese demand. I believe the world bank recently cited reduced Chinese demand as the main driver for declines in metal prices.

Anyway I think you can go back and forth on the reasons why commodities prices are declining, but the point is a faltering Chinese economy will be damaging to equity markets and it appears as if we are seeing that play out.

[sb9]

Hilarious, only in China :)

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/unhappy-chinese-investors-kidnap-fanya-metals-exchange-boss-shan-jiuliang-20150825-gj7q9m.html

[Bobcat.]

When we think conversely, it can help us be more objective, with less emotional attachment to previous investment decisions:

If after 6 years of decline, equity markets had been gradually climbing in value all of this year, and then we witnessed three days of spiking upward, what would be a prudent observation and response?

Choose either...

A) the massive spikes have just signaled an end to a short-term bullish correction, with the market now pivoting back to its longer term bearish, sad and sorry way; or

B) the massive spikes are a pendulum swing confirming a momentum shift, that began subtly months ago, to a new bull market, meaning its now time, with vigour and optimism, to celebrate and accumulate.

If you think the former more likely, then given today's converse situation, you are likely to be bullish this week, and beyond.

If however you believe that scenario B is more likely, then sell, go short, trade intraday with any deadcat bounce (and there will be a couple), and/or stay sidelined waiting for the market to once again turn bullish...which of course could take many years.

[Hoop]

I hear what your saying but companies with those sort of declines normally occur due to fundamental changes rather than panic driven noise like we are currently experiencing.
Couta......... always keep at the back of your mind this......Stock prices are leading not lagging indicators.....Reported fundamentals are historic.

[Nasi Goreng]

I found this quite useful, I particularly like the part at the end which helps you to pick where the bottom of the market will be.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3463446-how-low-can-this-market-go

Its also interesting to see real estate as % of household wealth in US and China 27.9% vs 74.7%. I wonder what it is here?

[xafalcon]

Couta......... always keep at the back of your mind this......Stock prices are leading not lagging indicators.....Reported fundamentals are historic.

I thought stock prices were the markets interpretation of the majority opinion of likely future prospects given the circumstances and knowledge available at the time = average of all forward estimates, based on accepted facts & fallacies = best guess

[Cricketfan]

I thought stock prices were the markets interpretation of the majority opinion of likely future prospects given the circumstances and knowledge available at the time = average of all forward estimates, based on accepted facts & fallacies = best guess

If the market was rational.....

[IAK]

Aussies stocks sinking .......http://www.businessinsider.com.au/australian-stocks-are-sinking-fast-2015-8

[Daytr]

What I'm saying is the Western World effectively stopped buying post 2008 & China replaced that demand on its own.
However that demand from the West has never really returned as their economies still struggle.
If you look at what China buys now in regards coal, iron ore, copper compared to say 2006 or 2008, the actual tons are still dramatically higher.
However coal consumption very recently seems to be dropping. Not many people realize that not only are they generating a lot more nuclear and green electricity with solar and wind, but they also did a huge program of work upgrading their grid with heavier duty transmission cable and smart copper switches. This meant they lose far less in transmission and that they can also divert their power production where its needed far more efficiently. Just this upgrade alone is meant to save them burning something like 150M tons of coal a year. They also have switched or shut down in favour of gas which produces about half the emissions of coal.



I agree completely that over supply was/is a significant issue. Econ 101 with the old supply and demand graphs right! You are essentially just adding another point to the list I made though as to why none of this should be considered noise.

Not sure I agree with you regarding the implication that reduced western demand is a bigger driver than Chinese. Oil prices are a different kettle of fish and I agree that Chinese demand as been only a small factor driving prices down. On the other hand, agriculture, metals (this is the big one), & coal have been significantly affected via reduced Chinese demand. I believe the world bank recently cited reduced Chinese demand as the main driver for declines in metal prices.

Anyway I think you can go back and forth on the reasons why commodities prices are declining, but the point is a faltering Chinese economy will be damaging to equity markets and it appears as if we are seeing that play out.

[ratkin]

Good that kiwis are so chipper, but seriously why is out market going up? By rights the DOW should have had a decent bounce today. Lets see if the Aussies are little more realistic

Seems they are

[twotic]

What I'm saying is the Western World effectively stopped buying post 2008 & China replaced that demand on its own.
However that demand from the West has never really returned as their economies still struggle.

For sure mate, I don't disagree at all. As I said China was one of the main reasons world economies/ equity markets managed/recovered as well as they did post 2007, but as soon as that (Chinese driven) economic stimulus starts to waiver the consequences are obvious.

Perhaps you mistook my post as one which blames the market down turn entirely on China. Of course that is not what I am saying. I actually think we probably agree on most things here. Couta hasn't replied re his outlook on the Chinese economy in the medium term. What do you think? Will they be able to manage the debt levels well enough to avoid a major correction in equity markets?

[Beagle]

I agree with the main thrust of what Daytr has been saying. The main issue seems to be getting reliable economic date out of China as the authorities tend to want to "massage" that data for their own interests.

According to a recent CNBC report diesel demand out of China actually decreased which is a fairly ominous sign I would have thought and is certainly incongruous with official Chinese authority economic indicators.

I think the decision to devalue the Yuan is a real concern and signals all is not well within China.

Further when you look at the precipitous and sustained drop in the oil price the demand for this most widely used world-wide product simply isn't there which indicates the bear market has already well and truly taken hold.

China's growth has dramatically slowed, of that there is no doubt...how the world comes to grips with this in terms of its effects on world-wide GDP growth, (if any), and the secondary effects of the strain this puts on the banking system in terms of exposure to countries and major companies that cannot make money where commodities are presently priced, remains to be seen.

Take the prop of China's previous strong growth away from the banking system still riddled with systemic legacy problems from the GFC and what have you got...a big problem !

[Daytr]

Agree Roger, its just difficult to know in regards debt levels especially at a regional level etc.
But compare it to the US, sure they have far more transparency, but their State governments in a lot of cases are up to their eyeballs in debt as well, let alone the Federal government. One thing China has at its disposal that the US doesn't is massive reserves, built up from huge surpluses.
Sure China is not easy, but that's mainly because of the lack of transparency than any real knowledge of massive debt issues.
They talk about a credit bubble in China & perhaps that's the case. But is it anywhere near the league of the Western World?
Not sure. Obviously GDP per capita is a lot lower there as well, but its growing rapidly.
If you want to look at a developing country that has structural issues, look no further than India.
Many claim India will be the next China, which I find almost comical.
India when I last checked only had 30 million tax payers! Or around 2-3% of the population.
Its amasing they can afford anything!

[arc]

I have been watching the numbers fly past on the screens and there seems to be something wrong with this situation.
In a crash there are almost no buyers, everyones lining up to sell
In a correction there are lots of sellers and reluctant buyers

At the moment there are lost of sellers, and lots of buyers. Some buyers are taking multi-thousand$ packages 30k's 50k's...
There is of course lots of smalll amounts crossing with the street buyers running for cover and shedding their holdings.

Comments please: Why is it that sooooo many buyers are active, considering we are supposed to be going down. Is it just the "buy when everyones selling- sell when everyones buying" concept.

[nextbigthing]

What do you feel they are buying Arc? Divvy payers or a range of shares?

[arc]

Well I must admit I have selfishly been following my own holdings rather closely... ( gee I wonder why...) Its both div's and top50's
Example , even as AIA continues to fall there are willing buyers in the wings...
PGW doesnt even care about the fall.. business as usual, but is that because of the x-divy on friday?
SCL has barely even sneezed.
XRO is still doing the lead balloon thing

I get the feeling that this "correction" is not going to last long.
But as always folks be your own judge!


edit: just got this email
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-world-struggles-to-adjust-to-chinas-new-normal-1440552939

[flying]

To answer Arcs question notice carefully why are the banks are taking a hammering. It is because they are not expected to make big profits it the future on house sales. The 1870 plunge in banks share price and where the housing market ended up makes for interesting reading. If houses go south where do you stick your money??

[PSE]

Couta , just trying to help here , I think I sent you a PM a while back re some good books to read - Market Wizards, and One up on Wall St ( Peter Lynch )
Somewhere in one of those is a good example of why a loss is a LOSS paper or whatever. It gives an example something like
Say you purchased 1000 XRO shares @ $ 39.00 , now trading @ $ 13.00 ish So $ 39,000 now worth $ 13000 as the trader did not have a S/l or a capital preservation plan in place .....
Obviously the shares have to Treble to get back to even .... The question I will ask how many shares do you own that have Trebled ?
It's hard to find one to double , so the bottom line is a loss is a loss even if it's on paper it is a real loss .
Treat every hard earned dollar as something precious , not " she'll be right mate "
Busy thread :)
Couta yes if the business is still sound and all that has changed is the shareprice then absolutely it is just noise. Daytr, Stoploss, Twotic absolutely the Macro environment will impact on shares. From an electrical engineering perspective noise is any unwanted information that is masking useful data - this is the information the sharemarket is focusing on because the future is unknowable.
Rather than worrying about China, Greece, Oil Prices, Syria, IS, Obama, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Ebola, Lehman Brothers people need to focus on the knowable aspects that affect their companies.
All this noise confuses people not just by drowning out the relevant information by playing on their emotions, leading them to think that shares are risky just when they are cheap and safe. Conversely during a bubble everyone is convinced shares are safe just when they are at their most perilous and expensive.
I agree with Couta's thinking, if you can hold for 5 years then a paper loss is meaningless. I have to add it has been very hard to find good value stocks lately so if you bought pricey ones then you may miss the opportunity to buy cheap ones.
Stoploss - Peter Lynch never used a stoploss in his life and neither have I. With my luck the shareprice will fall 10% trigger the stoploss and take me out just before the company rises 300%.
I don't know why you would buy a company thinking to sell it if the shareprice falls, the idea is to sell when the price rises and the only way to guarantee that will happen is buy and hold through the fluctuations.
Boring old get rich slow.

[Daytr]

Hubble, bubble & trouble! haha
Aussie banks very vulnerable to a correction that apparently will never happen in Sydney, Melbourne or Auckland.
Yeah right!
NZ debt now largely foreign owned, foreign owned banks and a housing market, in Auckland anyway, propped up by foreign buying.
NZ has probably never been so exposed to foreign influence than it is now. Well not since 1840! haha
One of the lessons we were supposed to learn from the credit crunch was ensure a good portion of your borrowing was domestic.
Seems like Key & English forgot to take the garlic out of their ears when that sermon was being issued by the ratings agencies.

[macduffy]

Speaking of "foreign influence", here's Brian Gaynor's piece on the historical importance of foreign investment in NZ.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11499580

(trying to keep politics out of the discussion!)

Edit: That didn't work! But if you can find the BG piece it's worth a read!

[trader_jackson]

As I speculated (sort of) at the beginning of the day, NZX down (we did start up), but ASX bouncing back again as people realise the fundamentals aren't all that bad after all

[waddis]

Longest spell without a Black Monday Post.....does this mean correction/crash is over!!.....................Woohoo

[Baa_Baa]

Longest spell without a Black Monday Post.....does this mean correction/crash is over!!.....................Woohoo

Well it is wednesday now, but still black, after Dow, Nzx and Shanghai all opened encouragingly and closed lower. ASX had a wee rally. Maybe some relief on Thoughtful Thursday. Read KW's excellent post on the Dow thread, it helps to understand how the minions will be played into the depths of capitulation before this "is over".

[arc]

Well it is wednesday now, but still black, after Dow, Nzx and Shanghai all opened encouragingly and closed lower. ASX had a wee rally. Maybe some relief on Thoughtful Thursday. Read KW's excellent post on the Dow thread, it helps to understand how the minions will be played into the depths of capitulation before this "is over".


I agree, there will be more to come, slow and drawn out. Almost appears like worldwide dominoes. Reminds me of a sci-fi story I read last christmas, "Who needs war when you can ruin the opposition with fingers on a keyboard"

Still pondering the way this market is behaving. Definitely a downturn, might yet turn into a long term Bear?. Perhaps its just me or the fact that more data is available now a days in more formats and computers make things so easy to capture/analyse "stuff".
Worldwide $Billions have been shed.. but have also been vacuumed up with what seems to me to be incredible speed?.

Can I ask you folk for your thoughts on this "correction"

Holding back on buying, waiting for the "Alice in Wonderland" cycle to pass, too many people have succumbed to the magic mushrooms...

[skid]

Busy thread :)
Couta yes if the business is still sound and all that has changed is the shareprice then absolutely it is just noise. Daytr, Stoploss, Twotic absolutely the Macro environment will impact on shares. From an electrical engineering perspective noise is any unwanted information that is masking useful data - this is the information the sharemarket is focusing on because the future is unknowable.
Rather than worrying about China, Greece, Oil Prices, Syria, IS, Obama, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Ebola, Lehman Brothers people need to focus on the knowable aspects that affect their companies.
All this noise confuses people not just by drowning out the relevant information by playing on their emotions, leading them to think that shares are risky just when they are cheap and safe. Conversely during a bubble everyone is convinced shares are safe just when they are at their most perilous and expensive.
I agree with Couta's thinking, if you can hold for 5 years then a paper loss is meaningless. I have to add it has been very hard to find good value stocks lately so if you bought pricey ones then you may miss the opportunity to buy cheap ones.
Stoploss - Peter Lynch never used a stoploss in his life and neither have I. With my luck the shareprice will fall 10% trigger the stoploss and take me out just before the company rises 300%.
I don't know why you would buy a company thinking to sell it if the shareprice falls, the idea is to sell when the price rises and the only way to guarantee that will happen is buy and hold through the fluctuations.
Boring old get rich slow.

Beg pardon. Did you say guarantee?

[janner]

Longest spell without a Black Monday Post.....does this mean correction/crash is over!!.....................Woohoo


hat4uk.wordpress.com

Not according to this one .

[Daytr]

Oh and apparently he never gets it wrong either. Skid! haha
Reminds me of Skol, not quite as bad admittedly, but definite similarities... ;-)


Beg pardon. Did you say guarantee?