AFT Pharmaceuticals

[trader_jackson]

http://www.afr.com/street-talk/aft-pharmaceuticals-to-test-ipo-markets-health-20150930-gjymsn

Thoughts?

(clearly no details yet, but from a macro/investor perspective, I think this could be good...)

[RRR]

Thumbs up from me.. Good business to be in. But depends on valuation. Orion is a good example, good fundamentals but very high price multiple hence fared poorly for those who put money in IPO.

[Puggy]

I don't know anything about the industry, but I understand pharmaceuticals are a key component of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, would it have any impact on AFT?

[GoldenStag]

Officially announced yesterday or the day before.

A couple of articles here:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1511/S00585/aft-pharmaceuticals-considers-ipo-listing-on-nzx-and-asx.htm
and here:
http://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=216784

and a fact sheet available from brokers.

Anyone interested in this one?

[kiwidollabill]

That's a fair loss (-$12.9M) on a fairly mature company ($56.2M), R&D spend ~$4M with 'Maxigesic' their major IP. Be interested to know the valuation, unless it's a steal I'll be shying away.

[trader_jackson]

Some more detailed information: (worth a read!)

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/pdf/AFT_Pharmaceuticals_Fact_Sheet.pdf

[Hectorplains]

Some more detailed information: (worth a read!)

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/pdf/AFT_Pharmaceuticals_Fact_Sheet.pdf

A couple of links providing an Aust perspective:
http://www.afr.com/street-talk/aft-pharmaceuticals-to-test-ipo-markets-health-20150930-gjymsn
http://www.afr.com/street-talk/imed-network-radiology-has-delayed-its-ipo-sources-say-20150930-gjyobj

Given they're going for a dual listing, it looks like they might have to be set a very realisitic strike price. FWIW: IDX made a brief climb to $1.95, today it dug a new low of $1.76.

[trader_jackson]

I am hearing good whispers on AFT... will be interesting to see if they do go fully ahead with the IPO (although I think they will do), and even more interesting to see what price it is...

[Crackity]

That's a fair loss (-$12.9M) on a fairly mature company ($56.2M), R&D spend ~$4M with 'Maxigesic' their major IP. Be interested to know the valuation, unless it's a steal I'll be shying away.

Thats a bit harsh Bill - they are expensing all their R and D annually and ramping up the Australian side - I will have a close look at this if the IPO goes ahead. I quite like their company story so far :)

[skid]

thats alot of R&D (sales 80mil-up from 60mil)but a 12.9mil loss.--this is a familiar story in the Biotec sector (which is why they are normally spec stocks)--If they come up with a major product from their R&D then it could be big but.....
Of course it depends on list price and sometimes these can go ballistic on hype,but at a time when most are leaning towards div. paying co.s with strong balance sheets you would certainly want to do your homework and keep it a smaller % of the portfolio. IMO--they would be up against some pretty tough competition worldwide. Maxigesic--Isnt that a combination of Ibuprofin and paracetimal?--a novel idea to combine the 2 ,but both those ingredients have been around for ages so hardly earth shattering in terms of R&D and new products.

[kiwidollabill]

^ Skid has most of my thoughts here. I'd be viewing this as a speculative 'startup' type bet considering where it appears their business plan is at the moment. From the info sheet it appears AFT was cash +ve (sustainable growth) then did a big drive into Oz which increased rev but at a loss. I think their details around growing their global market are also bit sparse.

Be interested to see what their GM is (cant find anything in that info sheet), generic drugs are typically low margin plus coupled with the fact they use contract manufacturers (likely Douglas, GMP etc) I cant imagine there is alot of meat left.

DYOR but I'd ask alot more questions on this one before plunging in.

[trader_jackson]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/74465910/aft-pharmaceuticals-to-list-on-nzx-and-asx-in-december

Its here!

[Shepherd]

Does any one have any thoughts/comments re the company and the float? Shares will list at NZ$2.80.

[trader_jackson]

http://www.business.govt.nz/disclose/fmc-register/viewInstance/view.html?id=0b027646737e9b07109edec95ae612cc83568 c84ad9d08f9&_timestamp=2186073257672360

There is some valuable information on this page, such as previous recent financial statements.

What is interesting is the loan they have at 13.5% interest rate (why is this so high??)
Also interesting is how fast australian sales have grown
Also $1m in dividends were paid in 2015 (I think I saw this), so if they don't pay dividends when they list, this will be a 'automatic' cash flow saving

Just a few interesting things I have seen... but also interested to know what others think (i've already signed up...)

[kiwidollabill]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/226483.pdf

[skid]

This is an interesting thing I saw in the weekend paper. Of the 14 IPOs listed on the NZX in 2014-2015--only 4 were in the black (??) one was GNE and I think there was at least another high profile listing in the black.
So smaller start ups didnt fare to well as a whole.

That high interest loan usually translates to higher risk....so its a punt (funding research)

[trader_jackson]

This is an interesting thing I saw in the weekend paper. Of the 14 IPOs listed on the NZX in 2014-2015--only 4 were in the black (??) one was GNE and I think there was at least another high profile listing in the black.
So smaller start ups didnt fare to well as a whole.

That high interest loan usually translates to higher risk....so its a punt (funding research)

I think it was because many of them were technology companies... but yes I also found that article interesting

[GoldenStag]

Written by Brian Gaynor, director of Milford Asset Management which has some ownership of AFT

[skid]

Written by Brian Gaynor, director of Milford Asset Management which has some ownership of AFT

The gist was that there were not enough IPOs coming along for the NZX (the success rate was obvious though-which Im sure he would not want to connect the dots if he is involved with the newest offering)---Seems like a good bloke who started it and a good company at present--but whether its suitable for a share listing to fund research is another matter---At least with PEB they had Otago uni to do the research and simply bought the end result (something that share holders often overlook who seem to equate the good product with the management instead of Otagos scientists)---(2 part system 1-scientists come up with the technology---2 management buys and is in charge of promoting and selling it)

[skid]

Written by Brian Gaynor, director of Milford Asset Management which has some ownership of AFT

The gist was that there were not enough IPOs coming along for the NZX (the success rate was obvious though-which Im sure he would not want to connect the dots if he is involved with the newest offering)---Seems like a good bloke who started it and a good company at present--but whether its suitable for a share listing to fund research is another matter---At least with PEB they had Otago uni to do the research and simply bought the end result (something that share holders often overlook who seem to equate the good product with the management instead of Otagos scientists)---(2 part system 1-scientists come up with the technology---2 management buys and is in charge of promoting and selling it)

[noodles]

I heard advertising on Radio Hauraki for the AFT public offer . Apart from the energy floats, this is quite unprecedented.

The best floats are the ones you can't get in to.

A clear warning sign for me.

[horus1]

I have been scaled back a fair bit. I think they will be successful.

[GoldenStag]

I have been scaled back a fair bit. I think they will be successful.

Allotment date isn't until the 21st and broker firm wasn't closed when you posted. How do you know the scaling?

[trader_jackson]

I heard advertising on Radio Hauraki for the AFT public offer . Apart from the energy floats, this is quite unprecedented.

The best floats are the ones you can't get in to.

A clear warning sign for me.

I'm not sure why they were advertising, because there is no public offer for a start, only broker and priority offer... (I know one of the big brokers basically got given almost no allocation).

On a separate note, on NBR I did see an article titled "the Dick Smith of pharmaceuticals" with AFT tagged in it... I hope it wasn't implying AFT, but as I don't have paid access I couldn't read further... http://www.nbr.co.nz/subscribe/182287
Anyone care to enlighten us?

[GoldenStag]

AFT got a waiver for having less than 25% of its register held by the public. Looks like Joe Public didn't bite and it is mainly instos. Not sure if this is necessarily a bad thing though as I've seen this before and it is an NZ problem. I assume the NZX ignores anything related to the ASX register which may have greater public support.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/275546

[GoldenStag]

What time does AFT list today on the NZX and the ASX? The listing notices never have the time which frustrates me.

[trader_jackson]

Off to a good start... up around 11%, not many sellers (not surprisingly)

[trader_jackson]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a9a5c944/drug-maker-aft-to-invest-in-its-biggest-ever-clinical-trial-after-35-6-mln-ipo.html

Interesting article... Up almost 11% for the day, I got my full allocation, anyone know when they list on the ASX? I notice there is a checky bid on the ASX for $2.90 and a much larger one for $1. Meanwhile on the NZX Buy orders outweigh sell orders almost 3:1

Early days I know, but initial reaction is always something to be watched (I think at least).

[trader_jackson]

Good to see share price holding well above IPO price, interesting was the results announcement to the market for the six month reporting period to September 30 2015 as I thought this has already been released, but was still marked as price sensitive (maybe NZX did it just in case...)

Good to see two important 'boxes ticked' for a growth company:
- Gross Profit increased 17% (with sales increasing more than costs of goods sold)
- Cash (receipts) From Customers increased 18.5% (with receipts increasing more than payments to suppliers and employees)

Let the good news continue :t_up:

[Snow Leopard]

...Good to see two important 'boxes ticked' for a growth company:
- Gross Profit increased 17% (with sales increasing more than costs of goods sold)
- Cash (receipts) From Customers increased 18.5% (with receipts increasing more than payments to suppliers and employees)

Let the good news continue :t_up:

What about all those 'boxes with red crosses' ?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/230971.pdf

A great start for a newly listed company!

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/230971.pdf

A great start for a newly listed company!

Interesting

Share price back to $3 plus on this news?

[trader_jackson]

Interesting

Share price back to $3 plus on this news?

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/279472

Probably back over $3 now! "significant boost in sales"

AFT has only been listed for just under 3 months, and they have already announced a couple of very positive announcements.

Disclosure: Happy Holder

[skid]

Doesnt look like a chance, by the depth---You sure like those speculative plays TJ!

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/279815

Simply stunning, one would think this sort of break through would certainly push it over $3!

[skid]

I dunno tJ--Im still looking at the depth--sell 4551@285---buy 400@275

Im not surprised they got approval--its a combination of 2 of the most common ingredients around--just doesnt seem like the sort of thing to take the medical world by storm--(no reason not to use it though--Im sure it will keep selling,but I think you will need some sort of breakthrough (from the research)to really make traction.
Right now there is heaps of positivity on the NZX so if it doesnt happen today ,or soon,might be alot of waiting.

[BC_Doc]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/279815

Simply stunning, one would think this sort of break through would certainly push it over $3!
Cautiously optimistic. An initial step in what will be a long process for FDA approval in clinical application.

Here's the link to one of their trials from the US if your clinically inclined. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02689063
It is similar to the trial which will be piloted in Christchurch

Speaking to my colleagues in the pain management field, there are still a myriad of issues concerning IV administration of NSAIDs

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/282071

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/282070

Solid announcements, leading up to what will hopefully be an impressive full year results announcement on Wednesday May 25 2016 (around 9am)

[skid]

The big question is just how much dosh they are churning through with the research,and whether they are coming up with anything--I wonder if they would not be better off just promoting their established product(but whats the difference between just taking 1/2 tab of ibuprofen and 1/2 of paracetimal (i did the spell check on the misspelling of para and it told me ''malpractice'' --you gotta laugh sometimes)

Theres probably a big difference but Ive often wondered

[percy]

I was asked by my chemist what I thought of AFT.
Told him I would find out what I could.
So 96,834,838 shares on issue,giving at $2.95 a market capitalisation of $285,662,772.
Half year to 30th September 2015;
Revenue $29,543,000
Nett loss $6,367,000.
Next report due 25th May .
Conculsion.The market is factoring in a lot of "blue skies".Be careful.

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/236150.pdf

On the face of it, what was interesting for me:
- "losses" (when excluding Research and development expenses and Equity accounted loss of joint venture entity) increased slightly from $204k to $564k
- gross profit up almost 12%, with margins reasonably strong (not showing singes of dramatic decreases in gross margin to try sell more!)
- Australia is doing very well (and probably continue to grow in double digits)
- Rest of world will probably continue to treble in sales for the next few years
- NZ is performing "solidly" but will probably continue at mid single digits due to saturation (great to see market share is growing!)

Look forward to hearing what others are thinking, but this looks to be a keeper!

Disclosure: of course I'm holding!

[trader_jackson]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a8d5c2c5/aft-pharmaceuticals-affirms-it-is-on-track-to-break-even-within-two-years.html

Anyone go?

Presentation didn't look to exciting, but it's good to see things are tracking well

[jimbo]

The big question is just how much dosh they are churning through with the research,and whether they are coming up with anything--I wonder if they would not be better off just promoting their established product(but whats the difference between just taking 1/2 tab of ibuprofen and 1/2 of paracetimal (i did the spell check on the misspelling of para and it told me ''malpractice'' --you gotta laugh sometimes)

Theres probably a big difference but Ive often wondered

Taking paracetamol and ibuprofen together is effectively the same, and a lot of doctors do actually prescribe this for post-operative pain relief (particularly with the current push to get away from opiate-based analgesics). However, in theory it's best for patient safety and compliance to simplify a prescription as much as possible (one tablet is better than two). As far as over-the-counter use is concerned, I imagine that users who find that a combination is best for their particular pain would also prefer to have a packet of the all-in-one tablet, plus it's safer if the combination dose is pre-measured instead of having a situation where consumers have to mix and match.

What I'm most interested in is whether they have a US sales partner lined up and what sort of marketing effort will be directed toward US healthcare providers.

[winner69]

One day the share price might surge up

Impressive sales chart in annoucement

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/243361.pdf

[skid]

Taking paracetamol and ibuprofen together is effectively the same, and a lot of doctors do actually prescribe this for post-operative pain relief (particularly with the current push to get away from opiate-based analgesics). However, in theory it's best for patient safety and compliance to simplify a prescription as much as possible (one tablet is better than two). As far as over-the-counter use is concerned, I imagine that users who find that a combination is best for their particular pain would also prefer to have a packet of the all-in-one tablet, plus it's safer if the combination dose is pre-measured instead of having a situation where consumers have to mix and match.

What I'm most interested in is whether they have a US sales partner lined up and what sort of marketing effort will be directed toward US healthcare providers.

Thats the million dollar question--IMO thats where PEB has stumbled...no big US partner

[trader_jackson]

One day the share price might surge up

Impressive sales chart in annoucement

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/243361.pdf

Fantastic annoucement! What is hard to believe is how the share price has 'barely' budged, given, what I think we can all agree on, is a very impressive annoucement... (I suppose the given the broader market weakness, where the nzx 50 is down 1.2% or so, getting any bump is 'ok')

Disclosure: very comformtable holder, just don't own enough;)

[winner69]

You know all about AFT

Is this what was expected

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/247882.pdf

Just a bit surprised with the 1% sales growth over pcp. . Their charts always touted a CAGR of close to 20% pa

[winner69]

You know all about AFT

Is this what was expected

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/247882.pdf

Just a bit surprised with the 1% sales growth over pcp. . Their charts always touted a CAGR of close to 20% pa

You still getting over this shocker result t-j

Still having trouble reconciling the abysmal revenues growth reported v previous presentations etc

Millions more pills being sold don't seem to generating any extra dollars

[kiwidollabill]

I've always been surprised at what a low EBITA they have when Maxigesic is so $$$ at the pharmacy and its active compounds are one of the most commoditised in the drug market.

[winner69]

The chart below is from an update dated Sept 12th - nice looking chart with the note that FY17 projection is based on 33 million tabs for first 5 months of year (heaps more than all of FY16

Even t_j was moved to say 'fantastic announcement' - even piqued my interest

But then H1 revenues are only going to be up 1%

Doesn't seem to make much sense

Please t_j - what the heck is going on here

[trader_jackson]

The chart below is from an update dated Sept 12th - nice looking chart with the note that FY17 projection is based on 33 million tabs for first 5 months of year (heaps more than all of FY16

Even t_j was moved to say 'fantastic announcement' - even piqued my interest

But then H1 revenues are only going to be up 1%

Doesn't seem to make much sense

Please t_j - what the heck is going on here

I have to say I was surprised to see revenue had increased just 1%, luckily the low share price was already more than taking into account this seeminly lackluster headline figure. Seems they once again have production issues, although it is nice to see underlying demand from the end customer remains strong. Will be interesting to see 'the bigger numbers' on November 24, particularly around cash flows

They seem to have good control over costs, along with everything going 'to plan'... still very exciting times for AFT... and I'd like to think they are very much expecting a very strong 2H performance ;)

[skid]

They are certainly struggling to go (and stay)above the original share price--Thats some ''serious backpedaling'' on the Fantastic announcement call.
Whats the story with those(once again)production issues?---I remember this being touted as a real Kiwi success story by Nigel Latima....so whats up?-----''very exciting times'' sounds familiar eh?

[winner69]

So they sold about 20 million Maxigesic pills in H1 but expect to sell another 55 million in H2

So all honky dory - no worries

But still have a problem with those 20 million pills in H1 being about the same as full year last period but $ revenues only up 1%.

Report doesn't make good reading - ni doubt t_j will tell us the good bits.

[winner69]

Hey t_j ......did you notice expenses increasing at a faster rate than revenues. Not good

Sorry mate, you asked for that. Hope PEB is different.

[trader_jackson]

Yes I did note this... although I also noted that Cost of Sales decreased... although I am fine with all other expenses 'fluctuating', I was not to happy to see Selling and distribution expenses increasing, nor happy to see the Cash Flows from Operating Activities... hopefully this will show with a large jump in sales over the next 6 months, and they seem to be expecting this. No worries, because they'll be making money in 2018/19 without a capital raising (kinda like PEB ;))

[winner69]

All looking good

Only a matter of time. As they say 'Although the contributions of advancing these projects are not yet apparent in the current financial results, progressing them is important as we are laying the building blocks for future material growth in AFT sales and earnings.'

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/295532

Could be a market darling this year

[janner]

All looking good

Only a matter of time. As they say 'Although the contributions of advancing these projects are not yet apparent in the current financial results, progressing them is important as we are laying the building blocks for future material growth in AFT sales and earnings.'

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/295532

Could be a market darling this year

Yes... I noticed it in your competition selection :-)))))

[trader_jackson]

All looking good

Only a matter of time. As they say 'Although the contributions of advancing these projects are not yet apparent in the current financial results, progressing them is important as we are laying the building blocks for future material growth in AFT sales and earnings.'

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/295532

Could be a market darling this year

I am hoping it will be!
Bit of a lack luster year last year, even with some reasonably solid stuff.
Not surprisingly, it is also one of my picks :cool:

[trader_jackson]

https://nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/296900

Another positive announcement, share price will probably (somehow) go no where

[winner69]

https://nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/296900

Another positive announcement, share price will probably (somehow) go no where

Yep, the share price and the announcements / presentations seem to be at odds with each other eh

Still haven't worked out why forecasted revenue showing not much growth when that chat showing the number of pills being old is almost exponential

[silverblizzard888]

Share prices are mostly reactive to statement made that will affect sustainable long term cash flows from product sales. A fee wavier is great, but doesn't warrant excitement when the business end of things aren't delivering highly. With puff pieces of their Maxigesic being licensed out to over 100 countries and yet no big revenue changes its not exactly a mood changer!

[winner69]

t_j did you bail out the other day taking the share price down to 230

AFT chart looking sicker by the day - needs some Maxigesic maybe.

Where to from here

[trader_jackson]

t_j did you bail out the other day taking the share price down to 230

AFT chart looking sicker by the day - needs some Maxigesic maybe.

Where to from here

Surely only upwards from here?

Not sure Maxigesic will help the retail investors bailing understand that AFT have to invest in product development (etc) before dramatic jumps in growth will be seen on the bottom line... of course they could become profitable tomorrow (they have nearly always been profitable in the past, apparently) but the whole idea of raising capital on our great NZX was to help invest in AFT's innovative products... a little Crystaderm might help protect against further unexplained share price drops (impatient investors maybe?)

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/256588.pdf

Interesting presentation, but also brief and to the point.

"expected total income for FY2017 [in the upper end of the range], up from $65.8m in FY2016" so lets say $70.5m.

Total Income analysis
1st half 15 was $24.2m ($24.2m of operating revenue, no Licensing Income and not sure on grants)
1st half 16 was $30.9m ($29.5m of operating revenue +21.9% on 1st half 15, 1m Licensing Income, $0.4m Research and development grant)
1st half 17 was [a weak] $30.8m ($29.8m of operating revenue + 0.7% $0.7m Licensing Income, $0.3m Research and development grant)

Therefore:
2nd half 15 was $33.3m ($32m of operating revenue, $0.3m Licensing Income, $1m Research and development grant)
2nd half 16 was $35.4m ($34.5m of operating revenue + 7.8% on 2nd half 15, $0.8m Licencing Income $0.1m Research and development grant)
2nd half 17 expected $39.7m (expect 96% of total income to be operating revenue: ie $38.1m + 10.4% on 2nd half 16)

It would appear growth is skewed towards the 2nd half, especially this year (with 2nd half operating revenue likely to be 23.7% higher than a bad first half)

I estimate 1st half 18 operating revenue will be only a bit less than the same as 2nd half 17, say 1st half revenue of 36m
2nd half 18, conservatively speaking, I estimate to be 25% higher than the first, meaning $45m
(1st to 2nd in 2015: 32.2%, 1st to 2nd in 2016: 16.9%, 1st to 2nd in 2017:27.9% [?] - average over 3 year period: 25.7%)
This reflecting increasing [expected] sales growth as development of products begins to 'flow through to sales'.

Total Operating Revenues:
48.9m 2014
56.2m 2015 (+13.0%)
64.0m 2016 (+13.9%
67.9m 2017 (+6.1%)
81m 2018 (+19.3%)

Maybe in 2019 growth will accelerate back to the good old days, when the 10 year CAGR (to 2015) was 21% (if not done in 2018!)... Total Income would be surely be over $100m including licensing income and grants, and turn a profit this [2019] year? (like the good old profitable days)

Will have to keep an eye on that cash burn... don't want another WYN (or OHE)

Edison have a revenue estimate of 99.1m operating revenue and a profit of 0.3m for 2018 so maybe I am a bit to cautious with my 81m estimate... then again they also have a price target that is more than double the current market price ($4.76)... winner69 you'd think the market would meet in the middle maybe somewhere between current market price ($2.30) and Edison's target ($4.76)... if that was the case, we'd be above $3.50... got to see the jump in growth first I suppose.

[trader_jackson]

https://nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/301469

Another step in the right direction, this one apparently material... share price will likely go down eh?

[jimbo]

This is a bit of a concern - I'm not sure how I missed it but it's the same thing as maxigesic except with 50 mg more ibuprofen per tablet (and a bigger marketing budget and distribution network).
http://www.nurofen.com.au/our-products/adult-pain/nuromol/

[jimbo]

This is a bit of a concern - I'm not sure how I missed it but it's the same thing as maxigesic except with 50 mg more ibuprofen per tablet (and a bigger marketing budget and distribution network).
http://www.nurofen.com.au/our-products/adult-pain/nuromol/


After a quick skim of the IP situation it would appear that AFT are only really pursuing NZ and US patents, which would give extra importance to success in the US market. In other markets a bigger competitor could swamp AFT on this product if they wanted to. Additionally, Reckitt Benckiser may be hedging their bets as their formulation falls outside of the seemingly quite specific claims in the AFT patents.

I'd be pretty interested in hearing some opinions if anyone with experience in pharmaceutical patents is following this thread.

Several (but potentially not all) of the AFT patents related to Maxigesic can be found with this search string: https://scholar.google.dk/scholar?start=0&q=author:atkinson-h+ibuprofen+paracetamol&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5

Cheers

Jimbo

[RRR]

AFT very similar to OHE... Overpromise and underdeliver. What a shame..AFT need to show profit dollars on the board, not just sales or promise of the sales..talk less and deliver more.

[trader_jackson]

AFT very similar to OHE... Overpromise and underdeliver. What a shame..AFT need to show profit dollars on the board, not just sales or promise of the sales..talk less and deliver more.

This is possibly the worst comparison I have read, atleast in a while… AFT is VERY different to OHE.
OHE has one of big contracts (similar to WYN) based onsoftware which is questionable (it would seem).

AFT has proven products with a specific and patented combinations(more of x doesn’t mean it is better), and the first and only pharmaceutical onthe NZX… probably why so many people in this country don’t understand it, but while US specialist healthcare investor CRG capital are only too happy to hand them more capital (literally) and have shares themselves... could explain why the share pricehas gone sideways (and comments such as AFT is similar to OHE appear…).

AFT has actually been profitable in the past, for manyyears in fact, and could probably be profitable ‘tomorrow’ if they wanted to butare investing in research and development (this was the whole idea of the IPO) of new, promising products, which are on track, and on budget.

AFT has made some positive announcements, some even ahead of schedule, which are not yet showing up on the top or bottom line (I agree with you on this), but willdo over the coming years (I believe)… in the meantime, the market will likely continue to misprice AFT (too low) mainly due to a misunderstanding of the company itself.

OHE has continuously missed targets, and the company even admits this, AFT hasn’t at all, although has experienced some one of factors in the past year ish… the years ahead will be most interesting for AFT.

Finally, AFT isn’t running on empty;)

[hardt]

This is a bit of a concern - I'm not sure how I missed it but it's the same thing as maxigesic except with 50 mg more ibuprofen per tablet (and a bigger marketing budget and distribution network).
http://www.nurofen.com.au/our-products/adult-pain/nuromol/

Take a home brand paracetamol and ibuprofen tablet at the same time then * PATENT IT *

[jimbo]

...AFT has proven products with a specific and patented combinations(more of x doesn’t mean it is better)...


I don't doubt that AFT put a decent amount of research into determining their combination, but that doesn't mean that a competitor with a different approved formulation and a recognisable brand can't sell just as well. Over-the-counter pain medication is all about sales.

All the PRs regarding new approvals and license agreements are important, but the next step of actually making sales is the most important. I really wouldn't mind to see some information from AFT about how they perceive their competitors and the extent to which they believe their IP should lock down the US market.

[RRR]

AFT and OHE are both over promising and under delivering (I am not comparing their businesses)! Their share prices are being duly punished.

Maxigesic is actually not a good pain killer. It has significant side effects, it can cause gastric ulcers and damage kidneys in certain patients! The main advantage is that it is an "over-the-counter" medication and has high margins. I hope they make money by selling millions of maxigesic tablets, so far not impressive financially.

Discl - holding a small parcel

[audiav]

Completely agree RRR, Maxigesic is not a good pain killer (great marketing name though!) as it doesn't allow flexibility in dosing with its fixed combination. And ibuprofen continues to get bad press for side effects. However the AFT generic side of their business has a lot of potential. (sigh, always wished Douglas Pharmaceuticals IPO'ed, that would have been awesome). I'm guessing if they keep their generic side of the business pumping, they will be snapped up by one of the larger international drug companies.

[RRR]

audiav - I actually bought at ipo considering their generic business! But management focus is on maxigesic and their sinusitis drug delivery business. I hope they succeed.

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/256588.pdf

Interesting presentation, but also brief and to the point.

"expected total income for FY2017 [in the upper end of the range], up from $65.8m in FY2016" so lets say $70.5m.

Total Income analysis
1st half 15 was $24.2m ($24.2m of operating revenue, no Licensing Income and not sure on grants)
1st half 16 was $30.9m ($29.5m of operating revenue +21.9% on 1st half 15, 1m Licensing Income, $0.4m Research and development grant)
1st half 17 was [a weak] $30.8m ($29.8m of operating revenue + 0.7% $0.7m Licensing Income, $0.3m Research and development grant)

Therefore:
2nd half 15 was $33.3m ($32m of operating revenue, $0.3m Licensing Income, $1m Research and development grant)
2nd half 16 was $35.4m ($34.5m of operating revenue + 7.8% on 2nd half 15, $0.8m Licencing Income $0.1m Research and development grant)
2nd half 17 expected $39.7m (expect 96% of total income to be operating revenue: ie $38.1m + 10.4% on 2nd half 16)

It would appear growth is skewed towards the 2nd half, especially this year (with 2nd half operating revenue likely to be 23.7% higher than a bad first half)

I estimate 1st half 18 operating revenue will be only a bit less than the same as 2nd half 17, say 1st half revenue of 36m
2nd half 18, conservatively speaking, I estimate to be 25% higher than the first, meaning $45m
(1st to 2nd in 2015: 32.2%, 1st to 2nd in 2016: 16.9%, 1st to 2nd in 2017:27.9% [?] - average over 3 year period: 25.7%)
This reflecting increasing [expected] sales growth as development of products begins to 'flow through to sales'.

Total Operating Revenues:
48.9m 2014
56.2m 2015 (+13.0%)
64.0m 2016 (+13.9%
67.9m 2017 (+6.1%)
81m 2018 (+19.3%)

Maybe in 2019 growth will accelerate back to the good old days, when the 10 year CAGR (to 2015) was 21% (if not done in 2018!)... Total Income would be surely be over $100m including licensing income and grants, and turn a profit this [2019] year? (like the good old profitable days)

Will have to keep an eye on that cash burn... don't want another WYN (or OHE)

Edison have a revenue estimate of 99.1m operating revenue and a profit of 0.3m for 2018 so maybe I am a bit to cautious with my 81m estimate... then again they also have a price target that is more than double the current market price ($4.76)... winner69 you'd think the market would meet in the middle maybe somewhere between current market price ($2.30) and Edison's target ($4.76)... if that was the case, we'd be above $3.50... got to see the jump in growth first I suppose.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/301577

Actually ahead of what I expected with operating revenue up to $69.2m.

Key take outs:
- Very promising noises, and already showing in the numbers, with very good growth in Australia, and, well, anywhere else but in NZ (which has been the main drag on revenues increasing 8%, this and supply issues)
- Gross margin improving was nice surprise
- Cash position of 16m very solid
- Good to see General and administrative expenses aren't running out of control
- Back to profit (note the word back - as mentioned AFT has made profits before) in during the FY2018/FY2019 period
- Next 2 years will be interesting, although the board sound confident they can execute

[winner69]

Hey t_j whatsup - expenses growing at a much faster rate than revenues. Not good?

But 8% revenues increase is pretty pathetic isn't it? To echo your own words about EVO 'I hought this was a growth company'

Sorry, couldn't resist this - but has some truth eh

[trader_jackson]

Hey t_j whatsup - expenses growing at a much faster rate than revenues. Not good?

But 8% revenues increase is pretty pathetic isn't it? To echo your own words about EVO 'I hought this was a growth company'

Sorry, couldn't resist this - but has some truth eh

When excluding NZ, as mentioned, growth is actually pretty solid... and unlike EVO, at least AFT tell it like it is... not try hide the fact EPS went up barely 1%

No worries, AFT will be profitable next year (or the year after), and hopefully have annual EPS growth a bit better than 1%

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/256588.pdf

Total Income analysis
1st half 15 was $24.2m ($24.2m of operating revenue, no Licensing Income and not sure on grants)
1st half 16 was $30.9m ($29.5m of operating revenue +21.9% on 1st half 15, 1m Licensing Income, $0.4m Research and development grant)
1st half 17 was [a weak] $30.8m ($29.8m of operating revenue + 0.7% $0.7m Licensing Income, $0.3m Research and development grant)

Therefore:
2nd half 15 was $33.3m ($32m of operating revenue, $0.3m Licensing Income, $1m Research and development grant)
2nd half 16 was $35.4m ($34.5m of operating revenue + 7.8% on 2nd half 15, $0.8m Licencing Income $0.1m Research and development grant)
2nd half 17 expected $39.7m (expect 96% of total income to be operating revenue: ie $38.1m + 10.4% on 2nd half 16)

It would appear growth is skewed towards the 2nd half, especially this year (with 2nd half operating revenue likely to be 23.7% higher than a bad first half)

I estimate 1st half 18 operating revenue will be only a bit less than the same as 2nd half 17, say 1st half revenue of 36m
2nd half 18, conservatively speaking, I estimate to be 25% higher than the first, meaning $45m
(1st to 2nd in 2015: 32.2%, 1st to 2nd in 2016: 16.9%, 1st to 2nd in 2017:27.9% [?] - average over 3 year period: 25.7%)
This reflecting increasing [expected] sales growth as development of products begins to 'flow through to sales'.

Total Operating Revenues:
48.9m 2014
56.2m 2015 (+13.0%)
64.0m 2016 (+13.9%
67.9m 2017 (+6.1%)
81m 2018 (+19.3%)

Maybe in 2019 growth will accelerate back to the good old days, when the 10 year CAGR (to 2015) was 21% (if not done in 2018!)... Total Income would be surely be over $100m including licensing income and grants, and turn a profit this [2019] year? (like the good old profitable days)

Will have to keep an eye on that cash burn... don't want another WYN (or OHE)

Edison have a revenue estimate of 99.1m operating revenue and a profit of 0.3m for 2018 so maybe I am a bit to cautious with my 81m estimate... then again they also have a price target that is more than double the current market price ($4.76)... winner69 you'd think the market would meet in the middle maybe somewhere between current market price ($2.30) and Edison's target ($4.76)... if that was the case, we'd be above $3.50... got to see the jump in growth first I suppose.

Looking very breifly through the annual report I believe operating revenue will still come in around 81m for FY18... however Australia could provide 'exceptional growth' (ie beat my estimate below) as AFT look to be doing a big push (with alot of expenses incurred this financial year)

Australia was 37.1m (31.2m 2016) - I believe there will be very strong growth of 25%... 46.4m FY18 with margins improving
New Zealand was 29.2m (31.1m 2016) - I believe there will be a minor drop... 28.5m FY18 with margins improving
Southeast Asia was 1.0m (0.6m 2016) - I believe this will double... 2m FY18, not sure on margins
Rest of World was 2.0m (1.0m 2016) - management noted hard to estimate growth, although growth should be significant... 4.0m 2018

I also note Mr Atkinson took not even 3k more in Base Salary (including benefits, ie car allowance) than FY17... and his bonus fell from 127k to 75k... at least he's not milking it... looks to be very aware of the task in front of him: significant sales growth + profitability (which will = a happy share price, happy shareholders, and a bigger bonus for him I'm sure)

I would have liked to have participated in the SPP, but did not have the cash at the time... will be interesting to see who does (the founder still owns over 75% of the shares so will be interesting to see what he does, if anything!). I also note about 40 more retail shareholders may have joined the list (shareholders between 1 and 5000 shares)... still only 870 odd shareholders

[winner69]

Looks all honky dory if ASM presos anything to go by

[trader_jackson]

Sounds even better if you were there ;)

So good I am tempted to buy more... I also noted the sellers dried up

[winner69]

Been a bit naughty

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/9c7ab2a4/aft-shares-drop-6-3-after-ticking-off-over-maxiclear-marketing.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AFT%20shares%20drop%2063%20after%20ti cking%20off%20over%20Maxiclear%20marketing&utm_content=AFT%20shares%20drop%2063%20after%20tic king%20off%20over%20Maxiclear%20marketing+CID_2ce1 6d5045a90730589c7b1aa4e4c94a&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle9c7ab2a4aft-shares-drop-6-3-after-ticking-off-over-maxiclear-marketinghtml

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/306565

What a great kiwi company.
Love the story, love the growth - only a matter of time these factors flow through to the bottom line (as we know, AFT has been profitable many years before... it ain't your usual unprofitable since day 1 and cross our fingers for profit one day WYN investment style thing with lavish new offices in Christchurch - quite the opposite)

Disclosure: although I'm a shareholder, I didn't get any invite to their 20th birthday party, probably to modest to hold one, keep expenses under control etc etc, or is 21 the big one? ;)

[trader_jackson]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/97161000/black-mould-on-maxiclear-identified-as-penicillin

Not a good look really, hopefully some further clarification with an announcement to the stock exchange first thing Monday.

On another note, half year drawing to a close next week, half year results announced about two month from now.
October 24 last year saw Operating Revenues of $29.8m with Operating Loss of $8.4m... I will be looking for an improvement in both, but particularly in revenue growth.

[RRR]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/308588

I am surprised that this announcement is not marked as "price sensitive"! It should be in my view.

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/308588

I am surprised that this announcement is not marked as "price sensitive"! It should be in my view.

Even more surprising was how the share price actually went down (briefly) this morning!

[petty]

T_J Im debuting on ST and have a question for you.

a) I'm assuming the suppressed SP and its inability to respond to good news is due to the very low liquidity. If this is the case how is this likely to change (the liquidity) and will lack of change stall future SP growth regardless of inevitable (I hope) improved financial results?

ta
petty

[trader_jackson]

Sorry petty I only just saw your question!

Liquidity is an 'issue' in the sense you get wild jumps and not alot of 'big' investors coming on board (as they can't get their orders filled)... in AFT's case it is bit of a double edged sword in this case - great that the founder owns 75% ish (not private equity) of the company and CRG Capital (a specialist US phama investor, who has been there for many, many years and described it as one of the best investments, top 2% or something) is unlikely to sell till AFT becomes profitable again (which could be very soon!), so basically 88.77% (as at 2 May) of the shares are unlikely to be traded... meaning that just over 11% of the shares on issue can be traded.

In the future, which may be months or years away, CRG Capital will probably sell down several percent of their stake, and the founder may also reduce his holding, possibly by bringing on other institutions (who I would think would be comfortable investing in a profitable growth company, like AFT is turning out to be - and something I have said it will be from day 1). Neither are likely to sell down until what they deem to be a reasonable price can be received for their shares. Something tells me this will be a fair bit higher than the IPO price (of $2.80). Increased liquidity will no doubt help the share price 'stabilize' and reduce common wild ups and downs, will likely also see AFT enter the NZX 50. (it was interesting attending the AGM - the founder, who is also the CEO, really didn't care what the share price was doing [despite owning a sizable number of shares!] and he spoke for an hour ish without glancing at any notes... quite impressive and shows he really is the best person for the job and knows exactly what is going on in every aspect of the business, that confidence, among other things, prompted me to put a buy order in for more shares the next day, which, to my delight, I got)

On another note, Half year financial results today have shown AFT is a true growth company with revenue up 23%, gross profit increasing by 33% (and gross profit margin expanding nicely) and expenses (namely Selling and distribution expenses, and General and administrative expenses) stabilizing and not increasing more, as a percentage, than what revenue (as a percentage) has increased.
The interim report makes for nice reading (and even more comforting when you consider AFT always have a stronger 2nd half). The 2nd half will also include the elusive re-scheduling of codeine based painkillers from over-the-counter to prescription only (from 1 February 2018) which could provide a even larger than 'usual' boost to this coming 2nd half - possibly enough to push AFT to profitability in the 2018 financial year (they have indicated they expect to return to profitability in 2018/2019 - I would consider a return to profit in 2018 a 'beat' ...and I say 'return', because they have been profitable for many, many years).

The market is asleep at the wheel when it comes to AFT and this will only be truly 'realized' when CRG or the founder make a placement to an insto, who conveniently cover the stock with a favorable rating, and subsequently offload AFT shares to their clients.

To summarize, the best times are ahead for AFT and the first 'signs' haven shown in this interim result.

[whatsup]

Sorry petty I only just saw your question!

Liquidity is an 'issue' in the sense you get wild jumps and not alot of 'big' investors coming on board (as they can't get their orders filled)... in AFT's case it is bit of a double edged sword in this case - great that the founder owns 75% ish (not private equity) of the company and CRG Capital (a specialist US phama investor, who has been there for many, many years and described it as one of the best investments, top 2% or something) is unlikely to sell till AFT becomes profitable again (which could be very soon!), so basically 88.77% (as at 2 May) of the shares are unlikely to be traded... meaning that just over 11% of the shares on issue can be traded.

In the future, which may be months or years away, CRG Capital will probably sell down several percent of their stake, and the founder may also reduce his holding, possibly by bringing on other institutions (who I would think would be comfortable investing in a profitable growth company, like AFT is turning out to be - and something I have said it will be from day 1). Neither are likely to sell down until what they deem to be a reasonable price can be received for their shares. Something tells me this will be a fair bit higher than the IPO price (of $2.80). Increased liquidity will no doubt help the share price 'stabilize' and reduce common wild ups and downs, will likely also see AFT enter the NZX 50. (it was interesting attending the AGM - the founder, who is also the CEO, really didn't care what the share price was doing [despite owning a sizable number of shares!] and he spoke for an hour ish without glancing at any notes... quite impressive and shows he really is the best person for the job and knows exactly what is going on in every aspect of the business, that confidence, among other things, prompted me to put a buy order in for more shares the next day, which, to my delight, I got)

On another note, Half year financial results today have shown AFT is a true growth company with revenue up 23%, gross profit increasing by 33% (and gross profit margin expanding nicely) and expenses (namely Selling and distribution expenses, and General and administrative expenses) stabilizing and not increasing more, as a percentage, than what revenue (as a percentage) has increased.
The interim report makes for nice reading (and even more comforting when you consider AFT always have a stronger 2nd half). The 2nd half will also include the elusive re-scheduling of codeine based painkillers from over-the-counter to prescription only (from 1 February 2018) which could provide a even larger than 'usual' boost to this coming 2nd half - possibly enough to push AFT to profitability in the 2018 financial year (they have indicated they expect to return to profitability in 2018/2019 - I would consider a return to profit in 2018 a 'beat' ...and I say 'return', because they have been profitable for many, many years).

The market is asleep at the wheel when it comes to AFT and this will only be truly 'realized' when CRG or the founder make a placement to an insto, who conveniently cover the stock with a favorable rating, and subsequently offload AFT shares to their clients.

To summarize, the best times are ahead for AFT and the first 'signs' haven shown in this interim result.

Agree T J but I see a C R this year as there is only $7.2 mil cash to cover this years loss of approx what $5.0 mil , I know this is a growth company but AFT is still coming out of the " valley of death".
This year will be a very interesting one in the companies history, they are not too far away now .

[trader_jackson]

Agree T J but I see a C R this year as there is only $7.2 mil cash to cover this years loss of approx what $5.0 mil , I know this is a growth company but AFT is still coming out of the " valley of death".
This year will be a very interesting one in the companies history, they are not too far away now .

I'm not so sure, you could be right, they seem to like mentioning that "In addition we have a US$10m facility available with the CRG Group."... they seem to have about a years worth of cash left, which could be enough to get them to positive operating cash flows... all depends on timing, and my thinking would be that if they are 'close' to cash flow flow break even, they may draw down a couple million from this facility rather than going to the market. Of course if they see a 'material opportunity (or equivalent words to that effect) they may be tempted to raise significantly more capital (ie tens of millions), where I imagine the founder may not participate (the first step to increasing liquidity), of course this is pure speculation, and would likely be a bit of an eyebrow riser given they had not previously signaled such a move to Mr Market.


Hey t_j whatsup - expenses growing at a much faster rate than revenues. Not good?

But 8% revenues increase is pretty pathetic isn't it? To echo your own words about EVO 'I hought this was a growth company'

Sorry, couldn't resist this - but has some truth eh

Not sure if EVO achieved 23% growth in their revenues recently...
23% growth is above their 10 year CAGR 21% mentioned in the prospectus released nearly bang on 2 years ago.
Some 23% growth in revenues and operating expenses getting more under control every minute - was this a surprise to you?
23%, I've not mentioned it 4 times, and it is also nearly 4x better than 8% just 6 ish months ago... wow
Great stuff, roll on profitability in the near future.

[hardt]

Edison has some brilliant insight into AFT - http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=20059&LANG=


Edison have made me plenty of money, when they say something is undervalued I tend to agree.

Bullish for the business long term... too bearish a stock to buy in right now for me.

Perhaps one for next years portfolio... unless fomo

[winner69]

Edison has some brilliant insight into AFT - http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=20059&LANG=


Edison have made me plenty of money, when they say something is undervalued I tend to agree.

Bullish for the business long term... too bearish a stock to buy in right now for me.

Perhaps one for next years portfolio... unless fomo

Jeez .....they have a valuation of $4.73 —— and if things go really well into the future $8.09

Edison do some pretty good reports, especially with market background stuff, but financials are always very optimistic (best case)

Report was commissioned by AFT

Watching brief at this stage for me ...not as enthusiastic as some

[King1212]

They had a report on SEA too...it shoot up then down at current price..bloody fish oil..

[peat]

Edison has some brilliant insight into AFT - http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=20059&LANG=


Thanks very much for that link hardt.
Very interesting reading.
This company is ripe for a takeover as well. It'll be chump change to one of the larger drug companies

Also anecdotally (n.b percy) :))
(i) I have asked at a few chemists in Queen St and they all say its selling well
(ii) My partner randomly brought some home the other day and said they work well.


Also note that since that report was released they have announced they are licensed in Mexico (a quite populous country!)
They say


Importantly we've now added our first market in North America.




Mexico is the fifteenth largest market in the world for sales of Paracetamol




tablets and of Ibuprofen oral tablets."



Sadly sales wont add until FY19.

Probably one for those with patience unless someone else jumps on it, but with value hard to find and price nearing a point that has created a couple of big volume days , it all adds up to an interesting proposition

From my harmonic TA perspective I can see a bullish gartley as well.
9387

[hardt]

Jeez .....they have a valuation of $4.73 —— and if things go really well into the future $8.09

Edison do some pretty good reports, especially with market background stuff, but financials are always very optimistic (best case)

Report was commissioned by AFT

Watching brief at this stage for me ...not as enthusiastic as some

Not going to jump at it right away... patiently waiting for the downside to be drained.

10% float is pretty lame... cash burn requiring further debt facilities is generally the case with pharma's in mass marketing stage.

[winner69]

They had a report on SEA too...it shoot up then down at current price..bloody fish oil..

While we are rubbishing Edison we won’t mention their feature articles on Snakk and PEB

But then again we won’t know whether they are right until at least 5 years after they publish

[hardt]

While we are rubbishing Edison we won’t mention their feature articles on Snakk and PEB

But then again we won’t know whether they are right until at least 5 years after they publish

Again, my experience with Edison has been a good one... it is a partnership of their research and your own investment thesis that gets you there in the end... should never be blindly followed.

[blackcap]

While we are rubbishing Edison we won’t mention their feature articles on Snakk and PEB

But then again we won’t know whether they are right until at least 5 years after they publish

Lets not forget CRP either....

[BlackPeter]

... looks like the technical downtrend is now perfect - AFT just passed the Cross of Death :scared:;

Otherwise - I noticed that analysts upped somewhat their predictions for this (2018) financial losses (up by roughly by 10%). Otherwise they still seem to be upbeat.

Personally - haven't yet found anything they can do the big boys in the industry couldn't do either (and cheaper) ... but maybe their very own painkiller (forgot the name) turns into a best seller. Personally I still trust good old Aspirin - for that the side effects at least thoroughly tested (over more than 3 generations) and understood.

Discl: don't;

[peat]

Im surprised you make this comment right now BP, downtrend has halted and beginning to reverse in my humble opinion.

And actually their Maxigesic patented combination of paracetemol and ibuprofen IS produced cheaper than the majors as its made in India , and it is already a major seller.

Aspirin is not suitable for those with high blood pressure, asthma, or for those on anti-depressants. You will be aware these three categories cover a fairly large proportion of people these days

[BlackPeter]

Im surprised you make this comment right now BP, downtrend has halted and beginning to reverse in my humble opinion.

And actually their Maxigesic patented combination of paracetemol and ibuprofen IS produced cheaper than the majors as its made in India , and it is already a major seller.

Aspirin is not suitable for those with high blood pressure, asthma, or for those on anti-depressants. You will be aware these three categories cover a fairly large proportion of people these days

Just making an innocent TA observation ... ;); And yes, Aspirin is not suitable for everybody, nor is it the only available painkiller on the market ...

But look - I don't have any heart blood in this one and did only quite cursory research on it (just couldn't find a reason to invest more time into them). I wish holders the best of luck. Wouldn't it be nice if NZ would produce in the pharmaceutical sector for a change a winner. We had already too many Genesis Research's and PEB's;

[peat]

ah yeh I should have disclosed. I do have a small holding , purchased recently at $2:30
very low liquidity, so have to stay small.
T/O is likely outcome imo - by one of those big boys for whom taking this out will be chump change

[peat]

Hey I just thought I'd cheer up my day by highlighting how this has moved since I highlighted a bullish pattern very early this month (5th) , and reiterated my view on the 19th allowing others to partake.
Green again today and am now sitting on +37c (16%) this month.
9441

[BlackPeter]

Absolutely - cheer is always good ;);

I agree - the indicators look better, though I am not sure about the reasons (no price sensitive announcement). SP now above MA50, MA100 and MA200 (and there even was a wee Golden Cross).

On the other hand - volumes are nothing out of the ordinary - and RSI looks at current pretty overcooked. Still - may well be that it found its bottom late December / early January. Or maybe not. This is the risk with one trick ponies ... they might do really well, but often they don't.

Maybe I am just negatively biased by some other pharmaceutical / medical NZ stocks: Genesis Research (for people with long memories) and PEB. Both had as well a great story and unlimited potential, but look where they ended up. So far I am not sure whether AFT will be different, but they well may be.

[peat]

Absolutely - cheer is always good ;);

..... and then goes on to say all the bad things. lol

Your nick is just too appropriate.

[BlackPeter]

..... and then goes on to say all the bad things. lol

Your nick is just too appropriate.

Look - where I am coming from it is BlackPeter's (or the Krampus') task to point out the inconvenient truths.

However - shooting the messenger is something humans are good at all over the globe :p;

[trader_jackson]

The low liquidity probably doesn't help and could be a cause of the fast jumps and falls - but as a long term holder, I am unconcerned about this.
The underlying business is pretty good, previously profitable (for many years), good market position, great products (most important thing in my view), earning most of their income offshore.
AFT will be one to watch that is for sure, wouldn't be too surprising to see it become an NZX 50 company and pay a dividend within a few years.

[trader_jackson]

Just as things started to get exciting... down we go again
share price wise anyway

[hardt]

Just as things started to get exciting... down we go again
share price wise anyway

I would be so irritated seeing $30k trades destroy $20,000,000 in market cap.

[BlackPeter]

... looks like the technical downtrend is now perfect - AFT just passed the Cross of Death :scared:;

Otherwise - I noticed that analysts upped somewhat their predictions for this (2018) financial losses (up by roughly by 10%). Otherwise they still seem to be upbeat.

Personally - haven't yet found anything they can do the big boys in the industry couldn't do either (and cheaper) ... but maybe their very own painkiller (forgot the name) turns into a best seller. Personally I still trust good old Aspirin - for that the side effects at least thoroughly tested (over more than 3 generations) and understood.

Discl: don't;


Im surprised you make this comment right now BP, downtrend has halted and beginning to reverse in my humble opinion.

...



Still surprised?

But then, volume is quite low and charts don't give a meaningful direction. Looks like AFT is sort of scratching down the bottom of the barrel.

Obviously - it can go both ways from here depending on their market fortunes. The only other thing I remember about AFT is that their CEO did't came across as a strong seller when I heard him speaking at the last NZSA conference, and not being a strong salesman might be a handicap in this business.

Anyway, time will tell.

Would be nice to see a NZ pharma company succeeding ...

[peat]

Still surprised?


wow righteous much

I'm not surprised a little company like this gets hit by a large correction in the over all market.
Personally I think the buy signal was truly triggered and the stop hasnt been hit so its wait and let the faith rebuild.

(Discl, holding a trvial quantity just for the ride)

[Sgt Pepper]

I was unaware that their flagship product, Maxigesic is also now aviailable in an intravenous form, significant as it could be utilsed in hospital as part of routine, if appropriate, pain managaemt. Thsi compnay will continue its development, only concern that it becomes a takeover target

[Hectorplains]

I was unaware that their flagship product, Maxigesic is also now aviailable in an intravenous form, significant as it could be utilsed in hospital as part of routine, if appropriate, pain managaemt. Thsi compnay will continue its development, only concern that it becomes a takeover target

Look at the share register, highly unlikely.

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/315095

Yet more robust news, ticking (or selling should I say) more and more boxes by the day.
Share price will still defy the odds and therefore probably go down further.

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/315095

Yet more robust news, ticking (or selling should I say) more and more boxes by the day.
Share price will still defy the odds and therefore probably go down further.

You the cynic t_j ...good timing this announcement eh in light of where the share price is

Probably wouldn't have said anything if the share price was $3 or more ....they would have waited ofr more than 1 weeks data to confirm this good news ...wouldn't they?

[BlackPeter]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/315095

Yet more robust news, ticking (or selling should I say) more and more boxes by the day.
Share price will still defy the odds and therefore probably go down further.

Oh dear ... I didn't realize that their highly tooted innovative painkiller Maxigesic is nothing but a combination of Ibuprofen and Paracetamol ... Silly me thought that they actually did develop some pain medication ;);


The codeine-free painkiller Maxigesic is now the largest selling Paracetamol-Ibuprofen combination painkiller in Australian pharmacies.

Nothing new about that - doctors recommend (and prescribe) this combination of paracetamol and Ibuprofen already for a long time in case of persistent pain. No need for Maxigesic something.

Where is AFT's moat?

[Onion]

Where is AFT's moat?

They get the outsourced manufacturer to put both ingredients into one pill. Clever aye. No one else will be able to do that!

They do have a patent so there is some form of moat:


A patent was subsequently grated for Maxigesic in New Zealand, and via the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT) system, a large number of additional countries also.

https://www.aftpharm.com/innovation/patented-products/case-studies/case-study-page-2/

[trader_jackson]

Well been pretty boarding lately with AFT, but next week Wednesday we'll see full year results, which should show some nice growth.
What is for sure is that we probably can't get too excited as AFT are still building up to something much bigger, better and more valuable than its current state... we may even see a profit this FY - which would be an added bonus because I'm happy if it has to wait another year.
The founder holds an overwhelming majority of shares and seems to have no intention on 'letting go' until he has done alot more bigly things... short term boredom, long term excitement some say

[BlackPeter]

Nobody praising the annual results? Let me guess, they must have been pretty disappointing. Lower revenue growth, higher loss than expected and NZ revenue already shrinking. And now we are not so sure anymore whether the next FY will turn cash positive. I note that our 4-traders duty analyst (Edison? - they seem to be the only ones looking into this stock) downgraded from outperform to hold and put the target price down to $2.86. I'd love to see on what base they justify this target price - can't be the published CAGR and EPS predictions (which are consistent with the published Edison report).

Even if I use these predictions does AFT still look expensive at the current SP of $2.42. Loss making startup with slowly growing revenue (and disappointing even modest market expectations). Forward PE of 50 (if you believe the optimistic scenario) and a revenue CAGR of 18 (same caveat). A share price around $1.50 would look fairer priced - but again, only if one believes the optimistic predictions ;);

No wonder the downtrend stays intact.

Looks a bit like PEB to me - only that AFT have not even a cutting edge medical product ...

[trader_jackson]

Actually I thought they were great - due to the lack of interest on here, and in the market (very illiquid), didn't see the point in mentioning highlights, like gross profit up 31% and a profit almost certain in FY19 - not that this would be their first profit of course, they have been very profitable in the past. This is far from a "loss making start up". I thought I was looking at Ryman when I saw the 18 years of consecutive revenue growth on page 3 - from $1m in 2000 to over $80m this year - and probably around $100m next year. Come 2021 - some analyst (who has a price target of $2.86 on it) reckons it will be in excess of $150m, with a PE of around 10 (at current share price). For a company with growth around 20%, year on year for the past 21 consecutive years, that sounds cheap to me... Mr Market still not convinced, and so need another few years of delivering - but going off that track record, I am pretty confident. Oh and its not Edison, their price target is $4 something.

So what's holding it back? Track record? Incompetent management? Lack of growth opportunities to sustain impressive growth? Another capital raising? Hmm, I doubt they will need more capital, but perhaps Mr Market isn't too sure... what I do believe, after being a holder since IPO, is that AFT listed too early (jokes on me for participating in the IPO lol). The big holders (being Hartley and CRP, who control over 88% of the shares), have shown absolutely no interest in selling - so the big (potential) buyers (aka insto's) have shown no interest in buying - hence nothing really happens, and when it does happen it is pretty jerky and seems to revert to around $2.50 (AFT is up over 5% in the past 52 so the NZX 50 website tells me).

Both Hartley and CRP probably hold as they believe they can take the company even further, and don't want to be a takeover target before 'they are ready' - fair enough, it is probably trading at a price way under what they think it is worth given a few more years (interesting to see management not only anticipating in the SPP a year ago, but also buying even more on market).

It would seem, with an impressive track record (and many, many more opportunities to come - just read the annual report, lots of 'gems' in there) - it is only a matter of when, rather than if (as it is with PEB), the profits start to roll (back) in, and the share price has to rise, but until the company can 'prove it', and until someone decided to let liquidity open up a bit more, I can't see how the share price will climb much over the coming year, maybe 2, maybe even 3 years... but after that - this is probably one you don't want to miss (and it probably isn't going to get much lower than where it is now).
Another 63 shareholders, +7.2%, on the register so at least a few more people seem interested

[BlackPeter]

Actually I thought they were great - due to the lack of interest on here, and in the market (very illiquid), didn't see the point in mentioning highlights, like gross profit up 31% and a profit almost certain in FY19 - not that this would be their first profit of course, they have been very profitable in the past. This is far from a "loss making start up". I thought I was looking at Ryman when I saw the 18 years of consecutive revenue growth on page 3 - from $1m in 2000 to over $80m this year - and probably around $100m next year. Come 2021 - some analyst (who has a price target of $2.86 on it) reckons it will be in excess of $150m, with a PE of around 10 (at current share price). For a company with growth around 20%, year on year for the past 21 consecutive years, that sounds cheap to me... Mr Market still not convinced, and so need another few years of delivering - but going off that track record, I am pretty confident. Oh and its not Edison, their price target is $4 something.

So what's holding it back? Track record? Incompetent management? Lack of growth opportunities to sustain impressive growth? Another capital raising? Hmm, I doubt they will need more capital, but perhaps Mr Market isn't too sure... what I do believe, after being a holder since IPO, is that AFT listed too early (jokes on me for participating in the IPO lol). The big holders (being Hartley and CRP, who control over 88% of the shares), have shown absolutely no interest in selling - so the big (potential) buyers (aka insto's) have shown no interest in buying - hence nothing really happens, and when it does happen it is pretty jerky and seems to revert to around $2.50 (AFT is up over 5% in the past 52 so the NZX 50 website tells me).

Both Hartley and CRP probably hold as they believe they can take the company even further, and don't want to be a takeover target before 'they are ready' - fair enough, it is probably trading at a price way under what they think it is worth given a few more years (interesting to see management not only anticipating in the SPP a year ago, but also buying even more on market).

It would seem, with an impressive track record (and many, many more opportunities to come - just read the annual report, lots of 'gems' in there) - it is only a matter of when, rather than if (as it is with PEB), the profits start to roll (back) in, and the share price has to rise, but until the company can 'prove it', and until someone decided to let liquidity open up a bit more, I can't see how the share price will climb much over the coming year, maybe 2, maybe even 3 years... but after that - this is probably one you don't want to miss (and it probably isn't going to get much lower than where it is now).
Another 63 shareholders, +7.2%, on the register so at least a few more people seem interested

Insulting for whom?

I guess they are for a so called growth company quite slow growing. OHE anyone?

They are on the international scene just another minuscule "me-too" with no moat ... and their praised differentiation is just a mix of two well known and generic pain killers where the patents did run out a long time ago. Any doctor can prescribe medication with the same effect but without using their product (and they do ...).

Where do you see their competitive advantage? What can they do better than the big boys in Europe and the US or the cheap boys in India?

And sure - board and management holding plenty of shares can be a good sign, but it can be as well a sign of some rich and incompetent celebrities deciding to run their own and other shareholders money into the ground. Look at the fortunes of OHE. Look at CBL ...

I am not saying that AFT will go the same path, but it must be legitimate to ask what's different ...

Holding lots of shares does not mean that the people holding them are clued up or capable to run a successful company ...

Ah yes ... and you might be not quite up to date on Edison's research ... while they still use positive sounding words (I guess they are paid for that, aren't they) - predictions of growth and revenue did shrink somewhat since the last result presentation ...

https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/company/aft-pharmaceuticals

I don't have their 12 month target, but given that they recently downrated earnings and revenue expectations would it make sense if they down rated the forecast SP as well.

As well - do you know any other research company looking at AFT? There is only one analyst in 4-traders and I am pretty sure it is Edison.

But hey, there are good evolutionary reasons for the endowment effect. Just a pity we can't get rid of it when dealing with stocks ;); Anyway - I am sure we will review the performance of this company from time to time ... highly educational - looking forward to that :);

[Sgt Pepper]

Insulting for whom?

I guess they are for a so called growth company quite slow growing. OHE anyone?

They are on the international scene just another minuscule "me-too" with no moat ... and their praised differentiation is just a mix of two well known and generic pain killers where the patents did run out a long time ago. Any doctor can prescribe medication with the same effect but without using their product (and they do ...).

Where do you see their competitive advantage? What can they do better than the big boys in Europe and the US or the cheap boys in India?

And sure - board and management holding plenty of shares can be a good sign, but it can be as well a sign of some rich and incompetent celebrities deciding to run their own and other shareholders money into the ground. Look at the fortunes of OHE. Look at CBL ...

I am not saying that AFT will go the same path, but it must be legitimate to ask what's different ...

Holding lots of shares does not mean that the people holding them are clued up or capable to run a successful company ...

Ah yes ... and you might be not quite up to date on Edison's research ... while they still use positive sounding words (I guess they are paid for that, aren't they) - predictions of growth and revenue did shrink somewhat since the last result presentation ...

https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/company/aft-pharmaceuticals

I don't have their 12 month target, but given that they recently downrated earnings and revenue expectations would it make sense if they down rated the forecast SP as well.

As well - do you know any other research company looking at AFT? There is only one analyst in 4-traders and I am pretty sure it is Edison.

But hey, there are good evolutionary reasons for the endowment effect. Just a pity we can't get rid of it when dealing with stocks ;); Anyway - I am sure we will review the performance of this company from time to time ... highly educational - looking forward to that :);

Maxigesic is indeed a combination of paracetamol and ibobrufen, however you you may be unaware they have also developed an intravenous formultation which will be of interest for hospitals as part of their prescribing formulary

[peat]

just wanted to say that I bought some AFT eye drops the other week. I didnt know they made those as well. They were very cost effective at a third the price of the big pharma options, and just as good as far as eye can tell.

re: THE MOAT - you could say its the branding. They're building that brand - just like ATM , and other companies with faux moats.

Is Coca-Cola a moat?
Yes - it has a patent on the exact formula
No- anyone can make fizzy cola and sell it in a bottle.

Combining two pills into one is simply more convenient for everybody and so will inevitably be the path of least resistance.


Also I think AFT is manufacturing in India, so has a low cost base.

Now that I'm watching occasional broadcast TV (I never used to) I seen some adverts of theirs on the tele. I wasnt that impressed but then I dont really appreciate those ads like eg Michael Hill (Jeweller), or that Chinese guy with the big teeth.

Oh and dont forget they have new regions coming on stream, as well as (maybe) lower legal costs in the order of a mill or two.

btw - I did review the result and was pretty good with it. I didnt post, which is why W69 has 20k and I only have a few

[trader_jackson]

Insulting for whom?

I guess they are for a so called growth company quite slow growing. OHE anyone?

They are on the international scene just another minuscule "me-too" with no moat ... and their praised differentiation is just a mix of two well known and generic pain killers where the patents did run out a long time ago. Any doctor can prescribe medication with the same effect but without using their product (and they do ...).

Where do you see their competitive advantage? What can they do better than the big boys in Europe and the US or the cheap boys in India?

And sure - board and management holding plenty of shares can be a good sign, but it can be as well a sign of some rich and incompetent celebrities deciding to run their own and other shareholders money into the ground. Look at the fortunes of OHE. Look at CBL ...

I am not saying that AFT will go the same path, but it must be legitimate to ask what's different ...

Holding lots of shares does not mean that the people holding them are clued up or capable to run a successful company ...

Ah yes ... and you might be not quite up to date on Edison's research ... while they still use positive sounding words (I guess they are paid for that, aren't they) - predictions of growth and revenue did shrink somewhat since the last result presentation ...

https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/company/aft-pharmaceuticals

I don't have their 12 month target, but given that they recently downrated earnings and revenue expectations would it make sense if they down rated the forecast SP as well.

As well - do you know any other research company looking at AFT? There is only one analyst in 4-traders and I am pretty sure it is Edison.

But hey, there are good evolutionary reasons for the endowment effect. Just a pity we can't get rid of it when dealing with stocks ;); Anyway - I am sure we will review the performance of this company from time to time ... highly educational - looking forward to that :);

The 'moat' concept is well explained above by peat, and yes (I believe) the manufacturing is of low cost it is largely, if not entirely, outsourced.

Lets have a look at some of those other companies you've mentioned (it is of interest)
- CBL: Although I don't really know what exactly went on (as it seemed hard to understand things), perhaps some 'creative accounting' (or at least questionable accounting, and arguably a questionable product) from a company that seemed to do so well yet need capital pretty much annually - even PEB, despite having been listed for a much longer time, on average goes quite a bit more than a year without a cap raising... who would have thought PEB would outlast CBL and WYN!

- OHE: Actually had consecutive revenue declines the past 2 years as well as burning through ALOT of cash while not really being able to deliver (at least since it has been listed) - big lumpy contracts, with arguably big lumpy costs as well

- WYN: Revenue flat for 3 years, while raising capital often less than a year after the last capital raise - big lumpy contracts, with arguably big lumpy costs as well

- PEB: Highly scalable model, very good product, but seems to burn through far more cash, year after year, than it can gain in revenue - and importantly, revenue growth has not been fast enough to 'catch up'... very much a watch this space (for, increasingly, all the wrong reasons...)

- XRO: highly scalable model, very good product (by the way, people said Xero, with what was no more than a "website" had zero moat as well, please pardon the pun), was criticized for years for their cash burn but have really turned it around - as has their share price - ultimately, they delivered.

- AFT? well highly scalable model as well, very good products, 18 years of non stop revenue growth (several, if not most, of those with profit)... but nearly 90% of the shares currently on issue are basically 'locked up' resulting in not a single insto being interested nor on board - no wonder nobody can get excited and start pumping them up with "research reports"!

So really there is ALOT different with AFT compared to the top 4 companies discussed above - credible product, credible management, credible (and consistent) revenue growth... and 9 in 10 shares aren't for sale

And Edison's research, as at 28 March 2018, was for $4.73 per share - so it ain't them (I don't think concensus estimates counts paid research such as edison - I would be very interested to see who else is covering it and their view with the $2.83 target price)
They (then) had the following predictions: 80.6m operating revenue for FY18 (vs 80.1m actual) and 12.5m loss for FY18 (vs 12.7m actual). In FY19 they had 98m operating revenue and a 0.5m loss - I reckon they will beat at least 1 of those 2... apparently they were going to update their research after results so will have to check back soon... then again who cares - they are waay out by nearly 100% with their $4.73 valuation per share clearly!

I do look forward to reviewing it from time to time as well ;)

UPDATE: I note Edison said this in their post FY18 results: "We are increasing our valuation to NZ$478m or NZ$4.91 per share from NZ$460m or NZ$4.73 per share, mainly due to increased expectations for Australian revenues and rolling forward our NPV. This was partly mitigated by slight reductions to expectations for New Zealand and RoW and a higher net debt balance. Our fundamental assumptions such as terminal growth and terminal EBIT margin remain unchanged. We expect to update our valuation following additional information regarding the status of Maxigesic launches." - that estimate at $2.8 something is not from edison that is for sure! They also expect AFT to make a $1m profit FY19 before making a near $11m in FY20 and bigly and better in FY21 - I'm thinking $20m+

[BlackPeter]

Interesting ... so there must be somebody else out there using the same revenue and profit forecasts like Edison and coming up with a lower value ... any of the AFT holders know about that analyst / researcher?

Anyway - both forecasts don't make a lot of sense in my view, but if your info about the Edison forecast is right, than they are clearly delusional vs just unrealistically optimistic ;);.

Never mind - I don't see AFT in the WYN or PEB category (they clearly do sell stuff ...), but I don't see them in the stellar growth category either. Not sure when they made money (as you say), this must have been ages ago. My records go 5 years back and the best of these years was 2013 with a "black" ZERO as a result, all other years they reported losses. 2 dear 4 me. But time will tell.

[hardt]

Interesting ... so there must be somebody else out there using the same revenue and profit forecasts like Edison and coming up with a lower value ... any of the AFT holders know about that analyst / researcher?

Anyway - both forecasts don't make a lot of sense in my view, but if your info about the Edison forecast is right, than they are clearly delusional vs just unrealistically optimistic ;);.

Never mind - I don't see AFT in the WYN or PEB category (they clearly do sell stuff ...), but I don't see them in the stellar growth category either. Not sure when they made money (as you say), this must have been ages ago. My records go 5 years back and the best of these years was 2013 with a "black" ZERO as a result, all other years they reported losses. 2 dear 4 me. But time will tell.

Price targets and valuation are two very different things...

[Patient Panda]

I would suggest anyone determined / keen to invest in this sector on the NZX / ASX would be far better off investing in CSL even at its current overvalued shareprice. I think you’d be far better served by a company with a great pipeline of new therapies and drugs that is making a solid, consistent profit with good ROE.

Though I’ve seen several ads on TV for Maxigesic I see it as having very little marginal benefit and basically zero economic moat.

I could be wrong, just my opinion.

[RRR]

AFT is very likely to do better this year. Sales will keep growing and the expenses will come down (R&D and corporate expenses). They might even make a profit. Cash balance has stopped dropping according to the management (good sign always) and they wont need to take anymore debt.

Discl- holding from ipo

[trader_jackson]

Operating cash outflows:
1H17: 10.3m, 2H17: 8.7m
1H18: 7.7m, 2H18: 3.2m
There is no denying that operating cash outflows are certainly reducing rapidly!

Probably operating cash flow positive come end of FY19 + a profit, PE of 10 come 2021?
Just don't tell Mr Market, it still thinkgs this is a WYN-like company!

[trader_jackson]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AFT/321680/283829.pdf

Slide 21 is probably why it was marked as price sensitive.

From some quick math, FY23 AFT may have $300m in annual revenues (up from $80m) at current, and I reckon generating around $50m NPAT, conservatively speaking - that would make the current share price of $2.30 extremely cheap - a PE of less than 5 for a company that has consistently grown top line well into the double digits, and has most of those times, been profitable.

I'm looking forward to the profit announcement in FY19 - the first as a listed company.
Wow 2 decades of revenue growth, never a down year since starting up with $50k capital in a taka garage (almost like a ryman of the NZ pharmaceuticals industry, but Mr Market clearly doesn't see it that way - share price down today).
Chances are FY18 is the last time AFT will make a loss, ever... dare I say it.

FY23 ish is probably when the founder and CRG will reduce their holdings (CRG perhaps a bit sooner) - then we'll see all the bullish reports come out from analysts. Until then, while revenues will continue to shoot north, share price will probably continue to go sideways simply due to the lack of liquidity. ASX listing doesn't seemed to have helped much either.

Rest of the meeting was top notch stuff as well.

Disclosure: I'll be trying to buy some more.

[peat]

Random pharmacy in Qld tells me Maxigesic selling very well

i liked the Chairmans address, haven’t looked at the slideshow yet,( operating from my phone )

[trader_jackson]

Couldn't help but top up today - just a matter of time before this really takes off.

[BlackPeter]

Couldn't help but top up today - just a matter of time before this really takes off.

Brave man. I guess sure, this might turn into a double bottom - or it might not.

Hard to predict even with higher liquidity stocks.

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/322575

Not the only one buying recently... no surprises, probably ain't going to get any cheaper some say

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/324594

Not surprising to see AFT have made another step in the right direction, costs of such agreements will obviously negatively impact FY19, but no doubt bigly gains in revenue profit etc in FY20 (must be, as unlike other similar announcements, this one is marked price sensitive).

1H19 result announcement 2 months away - operating cash flows probably neutral with a return to profit on track for FY19.

A question of when, not if, the 'fair market value' of AFT is realized
And the fair market value is far in excess of what the shares closed at right now - $2.20, the founder and CEO probably won't be selling for less than $5

[winner69]

TJ — Suppose you see this as a stunning result
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AFT/327185/291006.pdf

Another half year passes .....not much top line growth ....still not profitable ....significant cash burn ......debt up and asking for more.

Good part they reckon second half might just be better than first half ..alwaysvthe optimist

I would like to but I find it hard to get enthused.

[trader_jackson]

TJ — Suppose you see this as a stunning result
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AFT/327185/291006.pdf

Another half year passes .....not much top line growth ....still not profitable ....significant cash burn

I would like to but I find it hard to get enthused.

On an operating basis, they are (probably) profitable now (as at today)...
Cash balance increasing
Yea revenue growth a bit lackluster
No worries - FY19 NPAT on the way

[winner69]

Cash balance improving ...yes, but by borrowing more

Cash burn was $7.2m

[winner69]

Nobody likes your AFT t_j .... be below 2 bucks soon

I keep watching ....maybe one day it will deliver

[Leftfield]

Not in my portfolio. The IP protective moat is not great and IMHO it is too linked to Hartley Atkinson and his family. He needs to delegate and let others play a major role. (any CEO who sells himself in TV advertising is a worry.) GLH.

[dodgy]

Not in my portfolio. The IP protective moat is not great and IMHO it is too linked to Hartley Atkinson and his family. He needs to delegate and let others play a major role. (any CEO who sells himself in TV advertising is a worry.) GLH.

Hi,
I am not too sure about the advertising inference - look at the Remington man Victor Kiam and the fortune that company made.
Regards
-dodgy

[peat]

Hi,
I am not too sure about the advertising inference - look at the Remington man Victor Kiam and the fortune that company made.
Regards
-dodgy
...and Michael Hill was not exactly a male model and he managed to promote his company successfully

Yeh I have some faith in AFT as a long term kind of risky investment and have a small holding. They are building up licensing in many countries which takes time and they have cheap production methods. Agreed, it is not doing too well at present with price or liquidity but as I said its a long term view.

Looking at the chart it looks like a 18 month long descending wedge but Bulkowski tells me they should only be a few months long at most so maybe its just a boring old downtrend.

10317

[Leftfield]

yeah I'm maybe being a tab unkind with the advertising reference.....

My rationale comes from years of experience in advertising in which I've seen many instances of good campaigns for a product being ruined by a CEO's ego who wants to see their face made famous. Easy money for an ad agency to cave to such pressure, but in the end it seldom builds a good brand.

You say M. Hill campaign worked for them. Yes maybe, but only for a while. Once the CEO steps down, the personality is lost. And where is Remington these days?

GLH.

[winner69]

Michael Hill’s face on TV didn’t sell many shoes

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12202567

[dodgy]

yeah I'm maybe being a tab unkind with the advertising reference.....

My rationale comes from years of experience in advertising in which I've seen many instances of good campaigns for a product being ruined by a CEO's ego who wants to see their face made famous. Easy money for an ad agency to cave to such pressure, but in the end it seldom builds a good brand.

You say M. Hill campaign worked for them. Yes maybe, but only for a while. Once the CEO steps down, the personality is lost. And where is Remington these days?

GLH.

I think Victor died. No1 brand for womens shavers and a major personal grooming worldwide company.
Regards
-dodgy

[peat]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12202567

wrong thread Beagle ?

nowt to do with AFT that I can see.

[trader_jackson]

AFT is certainly boring from a share market point of view (not so much in terms of what they are actually doing/developing), they don't really announce much so hard to get all excited about a pending bigly game changing announcement.

Speaking of chemist warehouse, it is semi to do with AFT in the way they are doing wonders for AFT (a key driver in aussie sales) - on the front page of every 6 or 8 ish page pamflet I have received in the mail (about 3 of them in the past month I think), maxigesic has been right in the middle, front and centre. AFT's crystaderm is also usually somewhere in there as well I think.

[trader_jackson]

They gonna need to say something, ideally positive, as the share price is slipping away... hard to believe a year ago the shares were trading at $2.40... fundamentally, nothing has changed (has it?)... ah well, back to profit pretty soon, dividends hopefully under 2 years away as well.

[peat]

They are filing Maxigesic Rapid with the FDA in USA , sounds promising. But yeh pharmaceutical stuff has a bit of lag ....

[SilverBack]

I have been looking around for prospects on the NZ market and so decided to check out AFT. AFT seems to be a half way house between a neutriceutical like Blackmore and Promisia and a drug company like Pfizer. I had a quick look at their product list and mostly (solely?) they are formulations to deliver treatments that are already well established and not patented. This is different from generics where the generic manufacturer simply replicates the previously patented formula. From what I can see, AFT is as much a marketing company as it is a pharmaceutical company - "buy our product rather than anyone else's because ...."
Now, I realise that AFT's SP has been all downhill since it floated towards the end of 2016 amidst a degree of fanfare. This has been accompanied by continuing annual losses. Nevertheless, the EPS has been steadily improving which is a good sign. Then I looked at their debt situation. The Debt to Equity ratio at the end of March 2018 was 325.3% according to Morningstar. Ouch and more ouch. Not only that, but the ratio had increased from 38.2% at the end of March 2017 (a reasonable ratio). Without the latest annual results (probably released towards the end of May), I cannot determine what the current debt ratio is, and of course the current EPS figure will be helpful.
Now a company can increase debt in order to fund development and expansion and so I have to reserve judgement until we have the latest figures but that is such an extreme debt ratio, that it raise questions as to the viability of the company.
As a decent Kiwi, I want to support NZ business and especially those that export or sell their products overseas and I have a number of such in my portfolio. However, I cannot afford to throw money away and need some kind of return. AFT needs to prove itself a lot more to me at this stage I am afraid.

[winner69]

They gonna need to say something, ideally positive, as the share price is slipping away... hard to believe a year ago the shares were trading at $2.40... fundamentally, nothing has changed (has it?)... ah well, back to profit pretty soon, dividends hopefully under 2 years away as well.

Yep t_j they did a PEB and came out with a good story ....did you ask them to?

Put a rocket under the share price?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AFT/333323/298380.pdf

[peat]

Yep t_j they did a PEB and came out with a good story ....did you ask them to?

Put a rocket under the share price?

https://quoteapi.com/resources/da9866271f9d0071/announcements/aft.nzx/333323/AFT_AFT_Pharmaceuticals_completes_another_3_deals. pdf?bearer=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.ey JzY29wZSI6WyJndWVzdHMiLCJ1c2VycyJdLCJuYmYiOjE1NTUw MzEyMjgsImV4cCI6MTU1NTAzMjEyOCwiaXNzIjoic3RvY2tuZX NzIiwibm9uY2UiOiJhMDIzMjkzOWIzNmIxNjE0IiwiaWF0Ijox NTU1MDMxMjI4LCJzdWIiOjc4OTY5NX0.kq45d_X984MRyoAr_Q dzNVrqZTVMgLWTHpoJFSXbFZM

link doesnt work for me W69

AFT are always coming up with new stories (news) about how they are expanding their licensing geographically.

share price not responding yet, only one lonely lowball buyer currently !

[winner69]

link doesnt work for me W69

AFT are always coming up with new stories (news) about how they are expanding their licensing geographically.

share price not responding yet, only one lonely lowball buyer currently !

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AFT/333323/298380.pdf

[SilverBack]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?4303-winner69: "Put a rocket under the share price?"

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?5811-peat: "share price not responding yet, only one lonely lowball buyer currently !"

And you are surprised? Surely not.

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/256588.pdf

Interesting presentation, but also brief and to the point.

"expected total income for FY2017 [in the upper end of the range], up from $65.8m in FY2016" so lets say $70.5m.

Total Income analysis
1st half 15 was $24.2m ($24.2m of operating revenue, no Licensing Income and not sure on grants)
1st half 16 was $30.9m ($29.5m of operating revenue +21.9% on 1st half 15, 1m Licensing Income, $0.4m Research and development grant)
1st half 17 was [a weak] $30.8m ($29.8m of operating revenue + 0.7% $0.7m Licensing Income, $0.3m Research and development grant)

Therefore:
2nd half 15 was $33.3m ($32m of operating revenue, $0.3m Licensing Income, $1m Research and development grant)
2nd half 16 was $35.4m ($34.5m of operating revenue + 7.8% on 2nd half 15, $0.8m Licencing Income $0.1m Research and development grant)
2nd half 17 expected $39.7m (expect 96% of total income to be operating revenue: ie $38.1m + 10.4% on 2nd half 16)

It would appear growth is skewed towards the 2nd half, especially this year (with 2nd half operating revenue likely to be 23.7% higher than a bad first half)

I estimate 1st half 18 operating revenue will be only a bit less than the same as 2nd half 17, say 1st half revenue of 36m
2nd half 18, conservatively speaking, I estimate to be 25% higher than the first, meaning $45m
(1st to 2nd in 2015: 32.2%, 1st to 2nd in 2016: 16.9%, 1st to 2nd in 2017:27.9% [?] - average over 3 year period: 25.7%)
This reflecting increasing [expected] sales growth as development of products begins to 'flow through to sales'.

Total Operating Revenues:
48.9m 2014
56.2m 2015 (+13.0%)
64.0m 2016 (+13.9%
67.9m 2017 (+6.1%)
81m 2018 (+19.3%)

Maybe in 2019 growth will accelerate back to the good old days, when the 10 year CAGR (to 2015) was 21% (if not done in 2018!)... Total Income would be surely be over $100m including licensing income and grants, and turn a profit this [2019] year? (like the good old profitable days)

Will have to keep an eye on that cash burn... don't want another WYN (or OHE)

Edison have a revenue estimate of 99.1m operating revenue and a profit of 0.3m for 2018 so maybe I am a bit to cautious with my 81m estimate... then again they also have a price target that is more than double the current market price ($4.76)... winner69 you'd think the market would meet in the middle maybe somewhere between current market price ($2.30) and Edison's target ($4.76)... if that was the case, we'd be above $3.50... got to see the jump in growth first I suppose.

This was posted by me nearly exactly 2 years ago... wow my FY17 and FY18 forecast weren't bad (ended up being $69.2m in FY17 and 80.1m in FY18 operating revenues)

What I certainly didn't forecast was AFT share price dropping to its lowest point ever, despite my forecast (if true) showing a doubling in gross profits in just 4 years... someone was clearly very keen to get out, although the reason is not entirely clear why (it wasn't an insider selling as this would have been disclosed already).
Speaking of insiders, wow the board of AFT has been rock solid, nobody coming and going, just solid and steady management.

Anyhow, now to FY19: What I was also a bit off on was my FY19 forecast... $100m operating income likely a bit optimistic... I'll be expecting this in FY20 for sure (+ a significant portion of other income it has been indicated, which maybe several million additional income for FY20)

What I'd like to see in a months time when FY19 is announced:
- FY19 Operating Revenue of $88m, total Income around the $90m mark.
- Gross profit of $42m (wow that would be double what it was just 4 years ago - can't fault a company for doubling profitability every 4 years)
- Underlying operating profit of a few million
- Operating cash flow positive
- Bonus: first NPAT (not ever, AFT has been profitable for years and years) but a first NPAT as a listed company

[winner69]

trader_jackson


Speaking of insiders, wow the board of AFT has been rock solid, nobody coming and going, just solid and steady management.



Maybe that’s the big problem

Just looked at the nice portraits of them on their website ...OMG

[trader_jackson]

Maybe that’s the big problem

Just looked at the nice portraits of them on their website ...OMG

I would be very concerned if it was a rotating door of people.
They are delivering, slightly slower than I'd like, but delivering none the less.... but clearly the market getting a bit impatient at lack of bigly announcements... solid and steady progress, like doubling of gross profit every 4 years, is clearly not enough to entice some to stick around.

[trader_jackson]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/112133823/new-zealand-drug-company-aft-prepares-to-sell-medical-cannabis-as-referendum-nears

Wow they really pumping it now - media team must be reading share trader + seeing share price slump and wanting to put out a good story - and they delivered I reckon...

AFT soon gonna be like those pot companies on the ASX, have a small announcement on something related to cannabis, and then triple in price in a few days as a result of people lapping up 'the story'?

"It expected to return to profit in May when it released its 2019 annual result, Atkinson said." Sounds like NPAT for FY19 a done deal... we'll see in just a months time... that'll be a nice bonus as far as I'm concerned, before the bigly NPAT comes in FY20 and beyond.

Seems like AFT are "well positioned", profitability wise, and growth opportunity wise (and not just in new products, but new countries... "Over time he expected international sales from outside Australasia to make up about half of total revenue.")

[winner69]

Yep tj ...that news of medical marijuana is awesome

I’ll be buying tomorrow ...can’t live se I reckon

[pg0220]

Can anyone who support AFT justify equity:debt of $2,960,000:$56,446,000? I believe there must be something if still support AFT even when they are valued at $160m with so much debts on their books.

[winner69]

Clarified ebitda v profit

But medical marijuana is the real game though eh tj

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AFT/333585/298679.pdf

[trader_jackson]

Clarified ebitda v profit

But medical marijuana is the real game though eh tj

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AFT/333585/298679.pdf

Damn, I was getting all excited for a moment there with a bonus NPAT coming a year early... oh well will just have to get excited about the marijuana stuff

[trader_jackson]

Wow what a difference a non price sensitive article makes that simply re-states what the market should know... suddenly the buyers lined up have gone from maybe a thousand to well over 30 thousand... share price instantly up 4% and probably back to $2 later this week.

[winner69]

Wow what a difference a non price sensitive article makes that simply re-states what the market should know... suddenly the buyers lined up have gone from maybe a thousand to well over 30 thousand... share price instantly up 4% and probably back to $2 later this week.

It’s going to be hard work getting a decent chunk

Unlike you tj whose got plenty already ..lucky bugger ...esp when the marijuana fever hits in.

[BlackPeter]

It’s going to be hard work getting a decent chunk

Unlike you tj whose got plenty already ..lucky bugger ...esp when the marijuana fever hits in.

Hmm - roughly 4000 shares traded so far for altogether $7000; Are we sure this is enough volume (even for such a thinly traded share) to call the bottom?

[winner69]

Hmm - roughly 4000 shares traded so far for altogether $7000; Are we sure this is enough volume (even for such a thinly traded share) to call the bottom?

Not trying to call the bottom BP

Just imagining what AFT is going to be worth when punters (esp the Aussie ones) get hold of the medical cannabis story

Would start ramping on Hotcopper but been banned over there ...maybe a job for tj

[steveb]

pretty thin trading across the board today,quite a few people are still on their long weekend,so perhaps BP is correct on this it's probably to early to call.

[BlackPeter]

Not trying to call the bottom BP

Just imagining what AFT is going to be worth when punters (esp the Aussie ones) get hold of the medical cannabis story

Would start ramping on Hotcopper but been banned over there ...maybe a job for tj

Not quite sure about all this cannabis hype. Let's face it - as soon as it is legal it is just another boring agricultural product which is easy to cultivate. Every dimwit can grow it with quite limited resources (easy to see if you look through the police statistics).

No moat and easy and without specialist skills to produce - why would we think that this will turn a money maker?

[peat]

Not quite sure about all this cannabis hype. Let's face it - as soon as it is legal it is just another boring agricultural product which is easy to cultivate. Every dimwit can grow it with quite limited resources (easy to see if you look through the police statistics).

No moat and easy and without specialist skills to produce - why would we think that this will turn a money maker?

clearly you either didnt read or didnt comprehend the article.

[pg0220]

Just out of curiosity, does anyone know why AFT has not started selling medicinal cannabis to Aussie when it is allowed there and Aus is their main market?

[trader_jackson]

Hmm - roughly 4000 shares traded so far for altogether $7000; Are we sure this is enough volume (even for such a thinly traded share) to call the bottom?

When the average volume is 1,463 , to see 4,112 traded in 2 hours possibly does mean the bottom ($1.70) was reached... wow over 50 thousand shares lined up on the buy line now with over 10% of them at or above the $1.80 mark (remembering of course that about 88% of the shares issued on market have never been traded - effectively 'locked up')

I still wonder why that someone(s) wanted to get out over the prior 3 weeks, selling it down all the way from an already low $2 all the way down to $1.70

[winner69]

Tj ...this going to be a big story over the next year eh

Only worry I have is that the boss doesn’t seem to be the gang ho type and things might go slower than it should and they miss out

[winner69]

Might / tempted tontake those at 200 and tempt the guy at 220

That’ll put a rocket under the share price

Twitchy as

[percy]

May pay to take the ones at $2.30 as well.?

[winner69]

May pay to take the ones at $2.30 as well.?

Bit stupid really ...should go for PAZ instead eh

[percy]

Bit stupid really ...should go for PAZ instead eh

Now you are thinking clearly.
2 mil avaliable right now at 13 cents per share.
A bargain.!
Best to get in before the agm on the 16th May, when i expect they will disclose their brilliant outlook.
I am "well positioned" as expected.

[trader_jackson]

Bit stupid really ...should go for PAZ instead eh

Bids now up to $1.91... bit misleading when the share price is showing as $1.76... we all know it should be waay higher.

Even $2.30 is cheap compared to 1yr target price of $2.77, even cheaper when you look at Edison's report which closer to $5... Get in while you can they say.

[BlackPeter]

Bids now up to $1.91... bit misleading when the share price is showing as $1.76... we all know it should be waay higher.

Even $2.30 is cheap compared to 1yr target price of $2.77, even cheaper when you look at Edison's report which closer to $5... Get in while you can they say.

This the same Edison Research calling Rubicon a couple of years ago undervalued (when the SP was twice as it is now), predicting a breakthrough for PEB anytime soon (since at least 2016) and putting CRP on above $1?

[trader_jackson]

This the same Edison Research calling Rubicon a couple of years ago undervalued (when the SP was twice as it is now), predicting a breakthrough for PEB anytime soon (since at least 2016) and putting CRP on above $1?

yea thats them!
But they say this time is different BP :t_up:

Wow $1.91 now, up over 12%, maybe $2 before end of this week.

[peat]

wow , this 12% movement today really goes to show how emotive the market is !!
just a little toke(n) of cannabis and some users are pushing the price higher.

disc hold (so I am happy about this - but at the same time see it as kind of ridiculous)

[trader_jackson]

wow , this 12% movement today really goes to show how emotive the market is !!
just a little toke(n) of cannabis and some users are pushing the price higher.

disc hold (so I am happy about this - but at the same time see it as kind of ridiculous)

I don't see it as too ridiculous at all... what is ridiculous is how the share price went down from $2 (already a record low) to $1.70 in a matter of weeks... down 15% off the back of no bad news



If it was to go to $2.50 today, then I might get the ridiculous label out.


What is more intriguing is the volume - no at 17k - that is over 10x more than normal with the day yet to finish, and 51k+ buyers still lined up (also much more interest than normal)... so there is some positives, the price going up 12% is simply a recovery of unnecessary lost ground... but thats the price you (can sometimes) pay with an illiquid stock that is (currently) AFT.

[winner69]

This the same Edison Research calling Rubicon a couple of years ago undervalued (when the SP was twice as it is now), predicting a breakthrough for PEB anytime soon (since at least 2016) and putting CRP on above $1?

When you down on a stock you’re as bad as bull...

Anything else we should know about besides can’t call this the bottom, anybody can grow marijuana, AFT has no moat and Edison rubbish ...

[winner69]

Tj ...that EXL on the ASX trades at about 20 times revenues ..mind you they sell hemp related stuff as well

AFT as a global medical cannabis supplier has a nice ring to it.

[pg0220]

Tj ...that EXL on the ASX trades at about 20 times revenues ..mind you they sell hemp related stuff as well


Their balance sheet is very strong tho.

[BlackPeter]

When you down on a stock you’re as bad as bull...

Anything else we should know about besides can’t call this the bottom, anybody can grow marijuana, AFT has no moat and Edison rubbish ...

Ouch this hurts. I thought one of the clear differences to the other poster might be that I typically explain my rationale other than "my analysis says".

Apologies if I hurt your feelings by not sufficiently considering what the endowment effect might have done to you. But apart from that - was anything I stated incorrect?

[peat]

was anything I stated incorrect?

The ease of growing marijuana is irrelevant

Its the commercialisation of marijuana and dealing with regulatory requirements where AFT will potentially add value.

[BlackPeter]

The ease of growing marijuana is irrelevant

Its the commercialisation of marijuana and dealing with regulatory requirements where AFT will potentially add value.

Fair enough - not every backyard grower might be able to compete, but really - how difficult will this be for any other pharma company compared to the hoops they typically have to jump through?

[peat]

but really - how difficult will this be for any other pharma company compared to the hoops they typically have to jump through?

same might be said of combining paracetemol and ibuprofen calling it Maxigesic and patenting it and licensing it but it seems to sell very well according to all the chemists I've asked.

[BlackPeter]

same might be said of combining paracetemol and ibuprofen calling it Maxigesic and patenting it and licensing it but it seems to sell very well according to all the chemists I've asked.

True. Question though is whether it is doing as well on the international market. NZ is one of the world leaders in (per head of population) painkiller consumption.

[trader_jackson]

True. Question though is whether it is doing as well on the international market. NZ is one of the world leaders in (per head of population) painkiller consumption.

It is doing exceptionally well in Australia (and has been for years)... both NZ and Australia grew two fold and sales in "sales in this half made to Italy, Ireland, Israel, Iraq, United Arab Emirates and the CentralAmerican Common Market (CACM)" up 70% and Southeast Asia revenue grew by 81%, so many other parts of the world are accepting Maxigesic very, very well... and that is 'just the beginning' with 'Further launches are imminent and are dictated by regulatory timelines" for the 'rest of world' category.

[trader_jackson]

It took 3 weeks to go from $2 to $1.70 (and about 55k shares in volume), and in less than 2 business days (and about 23k shares in volume - so far), AFT straight back to $2... Amazing what a non price sensitive article restating last years AGM / half year comments can do.

[peat]

FROM ARG THREAD For most here risk is a rather subjective thing anyway


Doubt if any do a Sharpe Ratio for their portfolio - let alone do an Efficient Frontier exercise is see whats the best risk adjusted return is

Indeed risk is subjective and I could never believe that a Sharpe ratio helped.

AFT , for me is a very risky investment. A small new company not currently profitable. Liquidity very low. However I've done a bit of a Percy on it and everywhere I go to a chemist (surprisingly frequently these days) I enquire casually as to Maxigesic and I get pretty good feedback on it. And the company is really planning for great things - some of their markets are massive! And my partner swears by them as effective.

So I think , with a patient outlook , they could justify that higher level of equity risk (and probably a high beta), and in good time provide a high level of return.

Or not.

[trader_jackson]

It took 3 weeks to go from $2 to $1.70 (and about 55k shares in volume), and in less than 2 business days (and about 23k shares in volume - so far), AFT straight back to $2... Amazing what a non price sensitive article restating last years AGM / half year comments can do.

In 4 business days, share price has gone from $1.70 to $2.10... nice to see a over 20% gain in a week or so, wonder what the seller at $1.70 is thinking, turns out there was the volume/interest at a much higher price all along, just needed a sunday paper article to re mention what had previously (months ago) been mentioned.

Hopefully another 20%+ gain, but instead of 4 business days, probably have to wait 4 weeks this time (ie wait till post results announcement on 22 May)

[trader_jackson]

In 4 business days, share price has gone from $1.70 to $2.10... nice to see a over 20% gain in a week or so, wonder what the seller at $1.70 is thinking, turns out there was the volume/interest at a much higher price all along, just needed a sunday paper article to re mention what had previously (months ago) been mentioned.

Hopefully another 20%+ gain, but instead of 4 business days, probably have to wait 4 weeks this time (ie wait till post results announcement on 22 May)


Things marching closer to $2.20, with a fresh bid in at $2.11... volumes across the past 2 weeks on average about 3x higher than usual as well, but I reckon buyer interest I reckon is about 10x higher than usual.

The countdown to annual results is on.

[BlackPeter]

Things marching closer to $2.20, with a fresh bid in at $2.11... volumes across the past 2 weeks on average about 3x higher than usual as well, but I reckon buyer interest I reckon is about 10x higher than usual.

The countdown to annual results is on.

They say the hope dies last ...

Still below the MA200, and still quite low volumes (well, sort of average for this illiquid stock).

But sure - they might present this year a (surprising) turnaround - and the rising SP would just point to a leaky ship. Not good.

However - this is not what the publicly available information says. I think what we see at the moment is just a case of people reading the (somewhat misleading) stuff.co.nz article (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/112133823/new-zealand-drug-company-aft-prepares-to-sell-medical-cannabis-as-referendum-nears ) without digesting the clarification released afterwards by the company.

"Buy the rumour" potentially followed after announcement by a "sell the facts".

I see this clarification (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/333585) as telling - they clearly imply they are continuing to lose money, it is just their earnings before interest and depreciation which they expect to be positive.

Just hope that every buyer read (and understood) this clarification before buying, otherwise announcement day might turn into a bloodbath.

Who knows? Without insider knowledge all speculation.

[trader_jackson]

Things marching closer to $2.20, with a fresh bid in at $2.11... volumes across the past 2 weeks on average about 3x higher than usual as well, but I reckon buyer interest I reckon is about 10x higher than usual.

The countdown to annual results is on.

Monday we had a fresh bid in at $2.11, thought we'd get to $2.20 by weeks end, but I was wrong... now $2.20 with a day and a half to go... now there are bids up to $2.25 with nearly 30k shares with buy orders of $2.15 or higher, and just 1 seller left (at $2.30)... how things can change in a few days... whispers of a good result leaking out?

I have to say, even I'm surprised at the swift rebound - sending AFT up 30% in less than 3 weeks - and volumes (for a stock that is basically 88% locked up) have been much higher than usual over the past 2 ish weeks as well... a leak of a better than expected result perhaps?

[RGR367]

................

I have to say, even I'm surprised at the swift rebound - sending AFT up 30% in less than 3 weeks - and volumes (for a stock that is basically 88% locked up) have been much higher than usual over the past 2 ish weeks as well... a leak of a better than expected result perhaps?

Perhaps but with a stock with that much locked up, why bother?

[carrom74]

$1.70 to $2.40 in two weeks is a cool jump!... No sellers right now.

I am looking forward to the result and i hope the company will turn green this time.

[trader_jackson]

$1.70 to $2.40 in two weeks is a cool jump!... No sellers right now.

I am looking forward to the result and i hope the company will turn green this time.

There is a seller now - 1000 shares at $3.50... Quite crazy that nobody else seems fussed that this stock has increased over 40% in less than 3 weeks, in fact it is at the highest point since July last year
Then again, was weird why it ever went down in the first place

[BlackPeter]

There is a seller now - 1000 shares at $3.50... Quite crazy that nobody else seems fussed that this stock has increased over 40% in less than 3 weeks, in fact it is at the highest point since July last year
Then again, was weird why it ever went down in the first place

Jeez - you are trying hard ...

I guess first lets see whether they manage to get after 5 years of losses their operation back into the black (I recon not this year, but hopefully next), and whether they manage to at least sustain their (for a growth company) quite meagre revenue CAGR of 15 or so.

If they manage to deliver a profit next year than we can start wondering whether they might be a worthwhile investment and at what price.

NZ health and pharma industry not really a glowing success story at the moment ...

[winner69]

What about the cannabis BP

[BlackPeter]

What about the cannabis BP

You mean it helps to smoke it if you are an investor?

Discl: don't and don't

[Chanchay]

I don't agree with the sentiment of most of you here, strong growth in Australia and much of the regulatory costs behind them I think this report will be stellar.

Hard to value though with such little liquidity and breaking even. Using a multiple of revenue is hard to swallow. Lots or room for error.

I purchased shares last week for $1.90. Gains made are mostly imaginary until Wednesday.

[trader_jackson]

There is a seller now - 1000 shares at $3.50... Quite crazy that nobody else seems fussed that this stock has increased over 40% in less than 3 weeks, in fact it is at the highest point since July last year
Then again, was weird why it ever went down in the first place

Just when sum of us were saying nobody likes AFT (and I was very confused as to why it simply continued to go down for no apparent reason), bang on 3 weeks since AFT hit 'the bottom' of $1.70, it is now $2.48 - up 46%, and a rise supported by very good volumes (for AFT)
Almost starting to look too good to be true

[peat]

Just when sum of us were saying nobody likes AFT (and I was very confused as to why it simply continued to go down for no apparent reason), bang on 3 weeks since AFT hit 'the bottom' of $1.70, it is now $2.48 - up 46%, and a rise supported by very good volumes (for AFT)
Almost starting to look too good to be true

yes almost enough to take profit and run , but nah, being a risky part of my portfolio I have to let it adequately reward me based on that risk.

[trader_jackson]

wowee up 16.7% today! Now at the highest point since mid 2017 I did not see that coming in exactly 3 weeks from when AFT finished on $1.70... someone clearly very keen to get in 'at any price', and even if you exclude the $2.80 trade, buyers still lining up at $2.60 (still a big increase on yesterdays $2.40) but I suppose it is just more exciting to talk about sum other companies...

[percy]

Well done you guys.

[pg0220]

Jumping from 1.70 to 2.80 in less than a month is absolutely amazing given there has been no official price sensitive news!! Although I am not holding, I would be very very interested in seeing the result soon and what direction SP will move then. Well done to you holders!

[peat]

volume is so low it is almost meaningless.
we saw what happened when there was a large seller.
of course it is positive to have a few buyers lined up, but todays value was less than 10K. Hell , even tiddly old me could be a major mover and shaker with this stock lol.

[winner69]

Quite of lot of positive numbers this year eh t_j

Pretty good ....but not exactly stellar for a company with $0.25 billion market cap.

Share price might be hyped up to $3.00 plus on this though

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AFT/334841/300213.pdf

[trader_jackson]

The first time AFT has showed its operating profits as well (slide 9), it is good to see a return to profitability, and a very strong uplift of nearly possibly 100% growth on operating profit in the next year.

We all knew it was going to be operating cash flow positive as well - so nice to see this (and again, this will only continue to grow bigly).
Nice to see also that they have shown they can keep virtually all expenses under control - achieving 14% underlying top line growth, whilst keeping costs of goods sold, selling and disti expenses and admin expenses under control (in fact, they have reduced them) is very impressive.

Good underlying revenue and profit growth, although people might get not so excited when they look at actual profit growth of 5% (and don't bother reading any further). 'Other income' payments should also grow strongly.

Rest of world growing strongly as well - in fact looks like countries outside of aussie and NZ will be the real drivers of growth going forward, as I previously mentioned on this thread.

Finance costs was a killer, in fact if they had a similar finance cost as FY18, they would have made a NPAT of $4m ish. I believe debt has been a concern previously for AFT, and it is great they now have the cash flow/good feeling to make a separate announcement to go out to local banks and get an interest rate at probably half what they are currently paying (13.5%).

It would not surprise me to see AFT make a NPAT of $10m in FY20, putting a growth company on a PE of 26x in FY20, and probably a PE of 10-15 in FY21 - not that bad given the strong growth earnings growth ahead.

Then in FY22 when NPAT is $30m+, the founder might be ok with selling out at $5 a share ;) I certainly wouldn't mind my investment doubling ish in the next 3 years, might get a dividend then as well.

In conclusion, if you couldn't be bothered reading the above, or anything related to AFT, the headline says it all: AFT Pharmaceuticals poised for strong earnings growth

[petty]

Hi Team,

Ive been in and then out of AFT at a small gain. I'm keen to understand how you can value this as a growth company with only 5% uplift in revenue? The operating earnings seems to be driven by reducing costs (R&D). A business cant continue to reduce cost year on year and so Id expect further earnings gorwth to come through increases in revenue. I didnt see alot there in terms of slid increases in revenue over the next couple years?



Appreciate your insight into this ?

[trader_jackson]

Hi Team,

Ive been in and then out of AFT at a small gain. I'm keen to understand how you can value this as a growth company with only 5% uplift in revenue? The operating earnings seems to be driven by reducing costs (R&D). A business cant continue to reduce cost year on year and so Id expect further earnings gorwth to come through increases in revenue. I didnt see alot there in terms of slid increases in revenue over the next couple years?



Appreciate your insight into this ?

The 'muted' 5% actual revenue growth was largely because they divested a product line fairly recently... in the future, operating revenue will likely grow at about 15% (underlying revenue growth - ie growth when excluding the now divested business was 14% in FY19)... it is very impressive that they are able to growth revenue at double digit rates, yet reduce expenses (in reality, it would even be ok if expenses grew - just as long as they grew less than revenue)

Operating profit in FY20 of up to 12 million (a 100% increase from FY19!) won't be achieved by cutting costs that is for sure.

So they are not just growing the bottom line by reducing costs, although this is unfortunately what alot of companies are having to do in this low growth environment I suppose.

[trader_jackson]

This was posted by me nearly exactly 2 years ago... wow my FY17 and FY18 forecast weren't bad (ended up being $69.2m in FY17 and 80.1m in FY18 operating revenues)

What I certainly didn't forecast was AFT share price dropping to its lowest point ever, despite my forecast (if true) showing a doubling in gross profits in just 4 years... someone was clearly very keen to get out, although the reason is not entirely clear why (it wasn't an insider selling as this would have been disclosed already).
Speaking of insiders, wow the board of AFT has been rock solid, nobody coming and going, just solid and steady management.

Anyhow, now to FY19: What I was also a bit off on was my FY19 forecast... $100m operating income likely a bit optimistic... I'll be expecting this in FY20 for sure (+ a significant portion of other income it has been indicated, which maybe several million additional income for FY20)

What I'd like to see in a months time when FY19 is announced:
- FY19 Operating Revenue of $88m, total Income around the $90m mark.
- Gross profit of $42m (wow that would be double what it was just 4 years ago - can't fault a company for doubling profitability every 4 years)
- Underlying operating profit of a few million
- Operating cash flow positive
- Bonus: first NPAT (not ever, AFT has been profitable for years and years) but a first NPAT as a listed company

What I say when FY19 was announced earlier today:
- Operating Revenue was $85.1m, total income was $87.4m - not too far off my numbers above
- Gross profit was $40.7m, again, in the ball park
- Underlying operating profit of $6.1m - was about double what I expected
- $1.1m Operating cash flow positive - another tick
- Bonus: first NPAT - would have been an NPAT had finance and interest costs not quadrupled from the prior year

So I am fairly pleased, and a further bonus was seeing them address the finance and interest costs 'issue', and providing operating profit guidance for FY20 - the first time they have done such thing.

I look forward to enjoying some caramel slices in August at the AGM in Milford.

[BlackPeter]

Quite of lot of positive numbers this year eh t_j

Pretty good ....but not exactly stellar for a company with $0.25 billion market cap.

Share price might be hyped up to $3.00 plus on this though

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/AFT/334841/300213.pdf

Well ...

If we ignore all the hype about the future - revenue growth was less than analyst consensus (is 85.1m vs 88.9m expected) and loss was larger than analyst consensus (is 3 cts/share loss vs an expected loss of 1 cts / share).

Balance sheet is a shocker: Total liabilities $58.5m; total assets: $63.6m; That's an equity ratio of 8% (or a debt ratio of 92%: - I guess this ratio would be ok for a large bank, but for a manufacturer?

Did I forget to mention that they have as well roughly $8.2m intangibles on the balance sheet? if we remove them, than their NTA is negative.

Maybe a bit too early to start the victory dance ...

[winner69]

Well ...

If we ignore all the hype about the future - revenue growth was less than analyst consensus (is 85.1m vs 88.9m expected) and loss was larger than analyst consensus (is 3 cts/share loss vs an expected loss of 1 cts / share).

Balance sheet is a shocker: Total liabilities $58.5m; total assets: $63.6m; That's an equity ratio of 8% (or a debt ratio of 92%: - I guess this ratio would be ok for a large bank, but for a manufacturer?

Did I forget to mention that they have as well roughly $8.2m intangibles on the balance sheet? if we remove them, than their NTA is negative.

Maybe a bit too early to start the victory dance ...

Numbers are just numbers eh BP ...but you probably already know that

The story is more important at this stage of their development.

[trader_jackson]

Well ...

If we ignore all the hype about the future - revenue growth was less than analyst consensus (is 85.1m vs 88.9m expected) and loss was larger than analyst consensus (is 3 cts/share loss vs an expected loss of 1 cts / share).

Balance sheet is a shocker: Total liabilities $58.5m; total assets: $63.6m; That's an equity ratio of 8% (or a debt ratio of 92%: - I guess this ratio would be ok for a large bank, but for a manufacturer?

Did I forget to mention that they have as well roughly $8.2m intangibles on the balance sheet? if we remove them, than their NTA is negative.

Maybe a bit too early to start the victory dance ...

Your above points, both of which are valid (I'm not arguing that): Balance sheet 'shocker' and larger loss than analyst consensus (how many analysts cover AFT?) are due to the very thing they are addressing: debt and finance/interest costs (reducing EPS).

Significant earnings growth will support paying down debt - reducing the balance sheet 'shocker', and changing from USD to a NZD loan will reduce foreign currency exposure, whilst probably having interest costs as a result of AFT becoming significantly less risky due to a huge turn around in earnings.

So yes, if AFT's underlying business, which I note you have yet to comment on, wasn't so sharp, then I would be concerned about debt (eg EVO), AFT IPO'ed and borrowed to grow the companies product line, capabilities and geographic reach - they have delivered on all of these points and now at a point it can now repay that (rather expensive) loan with a very scalable operation.

Winner is right - the story is more important when it comes to a growth company (eg XRO) that the numbers

It is to early for a victory dance, but the victory dance is now a question of when, not if (and that when is a mere year away)

[BlackPeter]

Your above points, both of which are valid (I'm not arguing that): Balance sheet 'shocker' and larger loss than analyst consensus (how many analysts cover AFT?) are due to the very thing they are addressing: debt and finance/interest costs (reducing EPS).

Significant earnings growth will support paying down debt - reducing the balance sheet 'shocker', and changing from USD to a NZD loan will reduce foreign currency exposure, whilst probably having interest costs as a result of AFT becoming significantly less risky due to a huge turn around in earnings.

So yes, if AFT's underlying business, which I note you have yet to comment on, wasn't so sharp, then I would be concerned about debt (eg EVO), AFT IPO'ed and borrowed to grow the companies product line, capabilities and geographic reach - they have delivered on all of these points and now at a point it can now repay that (rather expensive) loan with a very scalable operation.

Winner is right - the story is more important when it comes to a growth company (eg XRO) that the numbers

It is to early for a victory dance, but the victory dance is now a question of when, not if (and that when is a mere year away)

No doubt - the story is crucial,particularly if the numbers don't impress :); History shows that of 20 companies with great stories 18 fail one survive and one win.

I could see them as survivor, but am not yet convinced that they ever will be worth as much money as the share is currently traded for. I just don't see the growth a "growth" company would need.

But hey - that's what the speculation game is all about ... different people do see different aspects ;) and some win and some lose;

[winner69]

Still talking about medicinal cannabis

Cool .....should keep the interest up

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/f0148047/aft-interested-in-medicinal-cannabis-but-says-it-s-not-commercially-viable-yet.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AFT%20interested%20in%20medicinal%20c annabis%20but%20says%20its%20not%20commercially%20 viable%20yet&utm_content=AFT%20interested%20in%20medicinal%20ca nnabis%20but%20says%20its%20not%20commercially%20v iable%20yet+CID_652513e34f2a57cf6638af971b068ce3&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlef0148047aft-interested-in-medicinal-cannabis-but-says-it-s-not-commercially-viable-yethtml

[trader_jackson]

Mr Market doesn't like it, share price down over 4%

Not enough believers in the story today... headlines not helping... gone from "Kiwi drug company AFT looks at medical cannabis opportunities as referendum nears" a month ago (when share price was just $1.70) to "AFT interested in medical cannabis but says its not commercially viable yet"... almost reads like a u-turn (share price still waay higher at least than $1.70)

[trader_jackson]

Share price keeps pushing higher - $2.90 now - its highest point since November 2016, and only 10% off a record.
Almost hard to believe a mere 7 weeks ago it was down in the dumps at $1.70, a record low.
And ever since the mighty rebound in that 7 week period, volumes have been (and continue to be) substantially higher than any point in AFT's listed history... momentum and interest is certainly building, although won't rocket up (along with a rocketing share price) until the founder decides to make a placement to a broker(s) (who'll then turn around and publish research reports with $4 price target or something)

They say management pretty pleased and confident with AFT's recent results and position going forward, maybe that's why the share price has kept rising...
AGM 2nd August, as with every year, I'll be there... aside from the usual annual general meeting stuff (eg nice finger food), should get some free maxigesic as well

[peat]

yeh some good buying interest into which I reduced one third, which was my speculative holding.

[trader_jackson]

I thought it would be $3 by weeks end, but I was wrong, it is $3 now (a day early) and they still lining up at the $3 mark with just 1 guy left selling 230 shares at $3.20... in fact nearly 13.4k shares lined up above yesterdays closing price (of $2.90)
That's now alot, but it is alot for AFT, a company which had an average turn over of only a few thousand, until 7 ish weeks ago that is.

Imagine how nuts this is going to go when the brokers get some from the founder (in an orderly sell down) and need to push to their clients... might be higher than $4 price targets issued... but I'd be ok with a 12 month price target of $3 - that is 33% higher than todays price, and 135% higher than the price a mere 7 weeks ago.

[Hectorplains]

I thought it would be $3 by weeks end, but I was wrong, it is $3 now (a day early) and they still lining up at the $3 mark with just 1 guy left selling 230 shares at $3.20... in fact nearly 13.4k shares lined up above yesterdays closing price (of $2.90)
That's now alot, but it is alot for AFT, a company which had an average turn over of only a few thousand, until 7 ish weeks ago that is.

Imagine how nuts this is going to go when the brokers get some from the founder (in an orderly sell down) and need to push to their clients... might be higher than $4 price targets issued... but I'd be ok with a 12 month price target of $3 - that is 33% higher than todays price, and 135% higher than the price a mere 7 weeks ago.

Price swings on low liquidity stocks can bite both ways. I'm struggling to model how a $4 handle would be anything but born of hype... I'm happy to play the trade but can't see where that'd be coming from?

[Leftfield]

I thought it would be $3 by weeks end, but I was wrong, it is $3 now (a day early) and they still lining up at the $3 mark with just 1 guy left selling 230 shares at $3.20... in fact nearly 13.4k shares lined up above yesterdays closing price (of $2.90)
That's now alot, but it is alot for AFT, a company which had an average turn over of only a few thousand, until 7 ish weeks ago that is.

Imagine how nuts this is going to go when the brokers get some from the founder (in an orderly sell down) and need to push to their clients... might be higher than $4 price targets issued... but I'd be ok with a 12 month price target of $3 - that is 33% higher than todays price, and 135% higher than the price a mere 7 weeks ago.

Seems the SP has been rising like a rocket since the owner/CEOs positive talk around Medical marijuana. Almost as good as Bitcoin!!

[trader_jackson]

I thought it would be $3 by weeks end, but I was wrong, it is $3 now (a day early) and they still lining up at the $3 mark with just 1 guy left selling 230 shares at $3.20... in fact nearly 13.4k shares lined up above yesterdays closing price (of $2.90)
That's now alot, but it is alot for AFT, a company which had an average turn over of only a few thousand, until 7 ish weeks ago that is.

Imagine how nuts this is going to go when the brokers get some from the founder (in an orderly sell down) and need to push to their clients... might be higher than $4 price targets issued... but I'd be ok with a 12 month price target of $3 - that is 33% higher than todays price, and 135% higher than the price a mere 7 weeks ago.

Wow, nobody selling now... not even that guy with 230 shares.
Buyers equivalent to 2 average trading days still lined up.

[winner69]

Wow, nobody selling now... not even that guy with 230 shares.
Buyers equivalent to 2 average trading days still lined up.

Maybe we should start thinking about 5 bucks eh mate

Should have bought a few more when that cannabis story broke

[pg0220]

I'm really not sure where re-rating came from. Business as usual without any surprise and it has to be a cannabis story they mentioned. If something goes wrong from the parliament with the weed, then what would happen to AFT SP?

[trader_jackson]

It seems alot of people believe the share price has gone up solely because of the weed story posted 8 ish weeks ago... I don't believe this is entirely the case... AFT actually started talking about medical cannabis way back in August last year (maybe Mr Market missed this?)... instead I believe the share price has continued its rebound as a result of annual results... showing that if it can get its finance costs under control (which they say they are now addressing) it would have already been profitable to the tune of a few million... combined with the fact that top line is going to grow strongly over the coming year, margins probably expanding, gross profit growing in double digits, finance costs waay down... this will go from a small loss to a rather large profit (by AFT standards) which will likely continue to grow strongly... what I am saying is the medical cannabis stuff is just a bonus - their key product lines are going great, especially overseas, and Mr Market only just beginning to see the potential now.

[peat]

Totally agree TJ

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/337220

So virtually $0 cost to AFT, with potential millions and millions in upside? Sounds good to me!

Reading between the lines, they are also saying the $9-$12m FY20 operating profit guidance is an absolute worst case scenario.... it could in fact be double that bottom ($9m) figure.

The excitement continues!
and (still) nothing to do with medical cannabis

[winner69]

Mention of the famous Mayo Clinic worth a bit to the share price I reckon

[BlackPeter]

Mention of the famous Mayo Clinic worth a bit to the share price I reckon

For sure - why else would they mention it three times in a one page announcement?

[trader_jackson]

For sure - why else would they mention it three times in a one page announcement?

Jeez, they should have mentioned it a bit more... For example, Timber is mentioned 13 times.
Bit like the subtle potential massive profit upgrade... AFT clearly like to understate the big stuff.

[BlackPeter]

Jeez, they should have mentioned it a bit more... For example, Timber is mentioned 13 times.
Bit like the subtle potential massive profit upgrade... AFT clearly like to understate the big stuff.

Well ... talk is cheap. Lets see, whether the money follows ;);

[percy]

I keep a very good product in my car and medical chest .
It is "Crystaderm" a first aid cream.
Brought more the other day, and noticed it is distributed in NZ by AFT.

[trader_jackson]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/114049228/new-zealand-drug-company-aft-pharmaceuticals-signs-deal-potentially-worth-us300m

Market cap is only $300m, they just signed a deal that could be worth that (on top of the $85m+ in annual revenues they already have)... Shares should definitely go up Monday, and with results due in 2020, $3 could be dirt cheap come this time next year (and if you got in at $1.70 a couple months back... well that was really stupidly cheap!)

Worst case (ie the deal is a complete failure), AFT has spent $0 and still has its existing product line (with double digit revenue growth since founding pa, and increasing margins)... best case... well the sky's the limit!

Substantial earnings growth in FY20, potentially game changing contract beginning in FY20/FY21 (with $0 cost to AFT), AGM in less than a months time... exciting times ahead!

[Chanchay]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/114049228/new-zealand-drug-company-aft-pharmaceuticals-signs-deal-potentially-worth-us300m

Market cap is only $300m, they just signed a deal that could be worth that (on top of the $85m+ in annual revenues they already have)... Shares should definitely go up Monday, and with results due in 2020, $3 could be dirt cheap come this time next year (and if you got in at $1.70 a couple months back... well that was really stupidly cheap!)

Worst case (ie the deal is a complete failure), AFT has spent $0 and still has its existing product line (with double digit revenue growth since founding pa, and increasing margins)... best case... well the sky's the limit!

Substantial earnings growth in FY20, potentially game changing contract beginning in FY20/FY21 (with $0 cost to AFT), AGM in less than a months time... exciting times ahead!

The $300m is the market opportunity in USA for that disease, the deal struck is not anywhere near that kind of money. The deal is good. But the $300m number thrown around by media is sensationalist lazy reporting of the press release.

I think we will see some modest gains next week. Maybe to the 3.30 level or so we have already had great gains since the 1.70 level a few months ago. Just my thoughts

[trader_jackson]

Share price up again, now at $3.15... less than 1.5% from an all time high now. Wow.
Probably will slip back to somewhere between $3 and $3.15, but after AGM will be probably be $3.30+... one thing is for sure: the naysayers probably still in denial.

[BlackPeter]

Share price up again, now at $3.15... less than 1.5% from an all time high now. Wow.

...

one thing is for sure: the naysayers probably still in denial.

Interesting oxymoron - but name calling always ugly. Do you really need to lower yourself to such a level?
It just shows how insecure you are that you need to call the people you disagree with "naysayers". Pretty trumpesk.

[peat]

Interesting oxymoron - but name calling always ugly. Do you really need to lower yourself to such a level?
It just shows how insecure you are that you need to call the people you disagree with "naysayers". Pretty trumpesk.
BP , naysayer is someone who says no when you say yes.
Nothing perjorative there - unlike calling someone insecure or Trumpesque. Of course being like Trump could be a positive depending on your views.

I had an order in to sell a few more , but I've removed it now... still looks like someone is accumulating.

[winner69]

BP , naysayer is someone who says no when you say yes.
Nothing perjorative there - unlike calling someone insecure or Trumpesque. Of course being like Trump could be a positive depending on your views.

I had an order in to sell a few more , but I've removed it now... still looks like someone is accumulating.

Well said peat

Your English background coming through with nice words like pejorative

[percy]

Well said peat

Your English background coming through with nice words like perjorative

What a lovely word.

[BlackPeter]

BP , naysayer is someone who says no when you say yes.
Nothing perjorative there ...


Nice try, but maybe your English is not as good as winner seems to imply. Merriam Webster defines "naysayer" as "a person who habitually expresses negative or pessimistic views". Clearly name calling of somebody who just has a different view than the poster in question.

BTW - the correct spelling of the difficult word you tried to use obviously would be "pejorative", coming from the Latin word "pejorare" (making worse) ... :p;

To answer Monty Python's famous question: this is something the Romans have done for the English ... they gave them amazing words they unfortunately find too difficult to properly use ;);

[peat]

nothing worse than a spelling Nazi on the internet mate
I'm just making the point you should play the ball not the man and not be such a nitpicker which you just seem to love doing and taking to a ridiculous extreme. chill dude, its the internet

[Joshuatree]

Yes , please thicken that skin a little BP. We dont want this site becoming a snowflake one.

Having a little chuckle visualising a snowflake pirate.:)

[peat]

some very weird price depth on this stock recently.
buyers at 309 for example but only bidding for tiny amounts of stock
with next buyer way down at 271
and yet trading is going through in minuscule volumes at the 309 levels.

it seems to me one person is wanting stock and prepared to drive price higher but not prepared to declare how many they want so they dont get hit (I guess).
anyone else have a view on why this is happening?

[Lola]

some very weird price depth on this stock recently.
buyers at 309 for example but only bidding for tiny amounts of stock
with next buyer way down at 271
and yet trading is going through in minuscule volumes at the 309 levels.

it seems to me one person is wanting stock and prepared to drive price higher but not prepared to declare how many they want so they dont get hit (I guess).
anyone else have a view on why this is happening?

Take no notice. Its that trivial sharesies index fund for beginners creation. Its a programmed trader, therefore distorts the market with pathetic volumes. This aint the only stock affected.

[trader_jackson]

Take no notice. Its that trivial sharesies index fund for beginners creation. Its a programmed trader, therefore distorts the market with pathetic volumes. This aint the only stock affected.
yes, like CBD for example.
Except, among other things, AFT actually produces some revenue.

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/342252

Exciting stuff they say.