ATC- Altech HPA

[JBmurc]

High Purity Alumina (HPA) Project

The Company is aiming to become one of the world’s leading suppliers of a high-value product, 99.99% (4N) high purity alumina (HPA) (Al2O3).

HPA is the major source material for scratch-resistant artificial sapphire crystal, which is used in the next generation of smartphones as well as a growing range of high performance electronic applications. The global HPA market is approximately 19,040tpa and is expected to double over the coming decade.

Current HPA producers use an expensive and highly processed feedstock material such as aluminium metal to produce HPA. Altech produces 4N HPA directly from an ore feedstock, aluminous clay, from its Meckering deposit in Western Australia. The Company is now advancing a Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) to develop a full-scale 4,000tpa HPA production facility. The Altech process employs conventional and proven “off-the-shelf” plant and technology to extract HPA from its low-cost and low-impurity aluminous clay feedstock, which results in lower operating costs.

Altech is a chemical processing group focused on creating a high-margin product to meet the growing global demand for the next generation of high-performance technologics

7641

Market cap 17mill

Valuation target - 31c

- Sri Abdullah said the project is very exciting, and that he looked forward to assisting with its development plans. He is Malaysia’s 29th richest." (major ATC investor)

-Long mine life>> 30+yrs

-"Mitsubishi deal"

http://www.altechchemicals.com/


Well worth a look .......

Disc -brought in today 13.5c (follow the trend)

[Dej]

Strangely, JBmurc, I bought today as well. Although you got yours 0.5 cents less than mine!

[JBmurc]

Great minds think alike LOL

[Dej]

Great minds think alike LOL

Should have waited by the looks of things!

15th October should be interesting;

"Altech Chemicals Limited (Altech/the Company) advises shareholders that it has reached agreement with Dana Shipping and Trading S.A. (Dana), to extend the date by which Dana can elect to exercise its exclusive option to mine up to 10Mt of bulk kaolin from the Company's Meckering kaolin deposit (Meckering Deposit) from 30 September 2015 to 15 October 2015."

From you experience, JB, what would be the intention of this agreement with Dana Shipping? Are they looking for some initial capital + ongoing income to support the HPA project? It seems a no-brainer from Dana Shippings point of view, $1 million shares at 10% premium of 120 weighted average is still below today current price. Arguably quite below. In terms of us shareholders, this surely will be a bit of an overhang for the next period (assuming they will sell some immediately).

[JBmurc]

No expert on the fundamentals here (only just come across and liked the look of the T/A) but the extension to the 15th oct will decrease the amount of shares 'Dana" will get for their 1mill investment... we will find out more on the exact details of a Contract soon.. that's if they decide to take up the deal ......I agree would be a good deal for Dana

[Dej]

Interesting chat:

http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network121410.html

Specifically;
Natalie MacDonald: It sounds like pretty exciting economics. What’s the next phase then to your project?

Iggy Tan: The next phase is actually the detailed design phase, project finance and securing off-take partners. With the financing of the project, we’re talking to various banks; financial institutions and we’re also even looking at export credit finance, out of Europe. There’s a lot of interest for the project and we’re pretty confident that we will secure about $50 million to $55 million of debt, for the project. And that will take the next nine months to secure that.

The off-take, we are looking at various off-take options and recently we announced Mitsubishi, as our major partner in Japan. They will look after all sales in Japan and as we go along, we will secure more and more off-take.

Natalie MacDonald: Last question then. Where would you like to see the company 12 months from now?

Iggy Tan: Well the company has grown very quickly in the last period of time. Our market cap used to be $7 million and we’ve grown to $15 million, in such a short period of time. So as we go into the next 12 months and we develop the project, we expect our value to increase over that period. So we’re looking forward to a very exciting phase, and we’re looking forward to supplying a material that will drive the electronics sector.

[JBmurc]

Should bounce hard from here this week if the "Dana agreement is reached and is a good outcome" ...be good to see the major seller of late to run out of shares ...

Many positive here for sure just need ATC to continue on the path to production ....IMHO will likely be taken out by a major before then

disc-brought more on friday 10.5c my average now 12.3c

[JBmurc]

Altech Chemicals Limited (Altech/the Company) (ASX: ATC) advises that the extension of the Dana Shipping and
Trading S.A. (Dana) bulk kaolin option exercise period announced on 1 October 2015 has now lapsed.
Altech and Dana are however continuing negotiations for the mining of bulk kaolin by Dana from the Meckering
Deposit.
An update on the negotiations will be provided, once finalised.

[JBmurc]

19 November 2015
PROJECT FUNDING UPDATE
Highlights
• Letter of Interest (LOI) for project financing received from German bank
• ECA: Interest in senior-debt project financing utilising German export credit insurance cover
• Highly experienced international project and export finance specialist
Altech Chemicals Limited (Altech/the Company) (ASX: ATC) is pleased to provide an update on the progress of
financing activities for its proposed high purity alumina project (HPA Project).
Following a series of meetings, a major German bank has submitted a Letter of Interest (LOI), expressing its
interest to arrange senior-debt project financing for the Company’s HPA Project. The LOI contemplates senior-debt
project financing that will maximise the use of export credit insurance cover under the German federal government
backed project finance federal export guarantees.
The bank is a leading German export and project finance specialist with experience in the debt financing of mining
and chemical projects worldwide, also in the Asia-Pacific region and projects similar to Altech’s proposed HPA
Project.
ECA is an instrument for the promotion of German exports. It provides a cover to bank lenders to insure against the
risk of an export loan and is administered by Euler Hermes, the German Export Credit Agency (ECA). ECA was
identified as applicable to Altech’s HPA Project because the majority of the plant and equipment will be sourced
from German and other European Union manufacturers and German group M+W is the appointed engineering,
procurement and construction (EPC) contractor.
The first step in the ECA approvals process is for the Company, the bank and M+W to make a presentation to Euler
Hermes for its assessment of the HPA Project, from which an initial determination of the eligibility for ECA funding
will be made.
Altech’s managing director, Mr Iggy Tan said that the interest shown by the German bank to arrange the senior
debt financing of the HPA Project is an important preliminary step for debt financing. “There is still a way to go in
the due diligence process and there is no guarantee that ECA eligibility or final funding will eventuate, however the
interest of this highly experienced and well regarded bank in our project at this early stage is significant.”

[JBmurc]

10 December 2015
ALTECH RECEIVES LETTER OF INTEREST FOR
GERMAN EXPORT CREDIT COVER
Highlights
• Letter of Interest (LOI) received from Euler Hermes for German export credit cover (ECA)
• Approximately US$40.0 million of project capital estimated to qualify for ECA cover
• Debt supported by ECA cover is typically at attractive conditions, including long tenure
Altech Chemicals Limited (Altech/the Company) (ASX: ATC) is pleased to report that following a recent
presentation to Euler Hermes Aktiengesellschaft ("Hermes") in Hamburg, Germany and its preliminary evaluation of
the Company’s proposed high purity alumina (HPA) project, Hermes has issued a Letter of Interest (LOI) confirming
in principle support under the export credit insurance guarantee scheme of the Federal Republic of Germany (ECA
cover).
The LOI is based on the information provided and subject to further in-depth due diligence. In addition, the LOI is
not legally binding and has been issued without prejudice to any decision of authorities to provide cover for this
project.
The Company has estimated that approximately US$40.0 million of project capital expenditure (from total project
capital expenditure of ~US$77.0 million) should qualify for ECA cover and additional senior debt in the region of
US$ 15 million, for total project debt financing of around US$ 55 million. Interest rates charged by lenders on debt
that is supported by ECA cover is typically at attractive conditions, as the repayment of the debt is insured, also
long tenure is usually available in accordance with OECD guidelines.
The initial assessment by Hermes of the availability of ECA cover for Altech’s HPA project is a significant financing
milestone and closely follows the Company’s 2 December 2015 announcement that is has executed a mandate
with German bank KfW IPEX-Bank in relation to senior debt project financing.
The next step in securing ECA cover is the submission of a formal application accompanied by a detailed project
information memorandum and various supporting documents. Detailed project due diligence follows, and will be coordinated
by the Company’s mandated bank and its German based project financing consultants.
Altech’s managing director, Mr Iggy Tan said that the Letter of Interest from Hermes is a very significant milestone
in the Company’s endeavours for funding its HPA project. “Obtaining this LOI from Hermes in such a short period of
time has been a complete team effort involving our Perth based management, German based financing
consultants, KfW IPEX-Bank and our general EPC contractor M+W Group. Feedback from our financing
consultants is that only selected projects pass the very important initial assessment by Hermes and that cover is
awarded to the vast majority of the projects that succeed at the initial evaluation. ECA cover and subsequent senior
debt project financing is still subject to detailed due diligence and there is no guarantee that ECA cover or final debt
funding for the project will eventuate, however the Hermes LOI is a significant milestone.

[JBmurc]

Would love to be building a large position in ATC at these prices .....

ALTECH TARGETS INCREASED PROJECT
DEBT OF US$70 MILLION
Highlights
• Altech targeting total project debt of US$70 million
• Export credit cover (ECA) component increased to US$60 million
• Residual debt component now up to US$10 million
• Sole lender structure proposed for the entire debt portion of up to US$70 million
• Simplified debt financing and attractive ECA-covered component
Altech Chemicals Limited (Altech/the Company) (ASX: ATC) is pleased to announce that the Company’s targeted
debt financing for its proposed Malaysian high purity alumina (HPA) project has increased to US$70 million
(previously US$60 million).
The export credit cover (ECA) component to be covered by the German export credit agency (ECA), Euler
Hermes Aktiengesellschaft (Euler Hermes) has increased from US$40 million to US$60 million. Accordingly,
Altech has reduced the targeted amount for the remaining uncovered debt portion from US$20 million to US$10
million, which has resulted in a revised total project debt target of US$70 million.
In accordance with the positive cursory pre-assessment undertaken by Euler Hermes (please refer to ASX
Announcement of 3 August 2016 for details), the Company’s ongoing due diligence process has the objective of
an application for ECA-cover incorporating the abovementioned adjusted debt structure.
Furthermore, German government-owned KfW IPEX-Bank, mandated to provide debt structuring and advisory
services to the Company, has proposed a simple and cost effective “sole lender” debt structure whereby the
entire US$70 million of project debt is proposed to be provided exclusively by KfW IPEX-Bank (subject to ongoing
due diligence and respective loan approval).
The interest rate of project finance debt supported by ECA cover is very attractive, consequently the overall cost
of debt for the Company shall be reduced compared to the originally contemplated structure.

[babymonster]

I m watching this one

[Dej]

Would love to be building a large position in ATC at these prices .....

ALTECH TARGETS INCREASED PROJECT
DEBT OF US$70 MILLION
Highlights
• Altech targeting total project debt of US$70 million
• Export credit cover (ECA) component increased to US$60 million
• Residual debt component now up to US$10 million
• Sole lender structure proposed for the entire debt portion of up to US$70 million
• Simplified debt financing and attractive ECA-covered component
Altech Chemicals Limited (Altech/the Company) (ASX: ATC) is pleased to announce that the Company’s targeted
debt financing for its proposed Malaysian high purity alumina (HPA) project has increased to US$70 million
(previously US$60 million).
The export credit cover (ECA) component to be covered by the German export credit agency (ECA), Euler
Hermes Aktiengesellschaft (Euler Hermes) has increased from US$40 million to US$60 million. Accordingly,
Altech has reduced the targeted amount for the remaining uncovered debt portion from US$20 million to US$10
million, which has resulted in a revised total project debt target of US$70 million.
In accordance with the positive cursory pre-assessment undertaken by Euler Hermes (please refer to ASX
Announcement of 3 August 2016 for details), the Company’s ongoing due diligence process has the objective of
an application for ECA-cover incorporating the abovementioned adjusted debt structure.
Furthermore, German government-owned KfW IPEX-Bank, mandated to provide debt structuring and advisory
services to the Company, has proposed a simple and cost effective “sole lender” debt structure whereby the
entire US$70 million of project debt is proposed to be provided exclusively by KfW IPEX-Bank (subject to ongoing
due diligence and respective loan approval).
The interest rate of project finance debt supported by ECA cover is very attractive, consequently the overall cost
of debt for the Company shall be reduced compared to the originally contemplated structure.


You still in JBMurc? I am suprised (and happy) it hasnt run. I had to move some money around from this end of last year and am now in a good position to chuck some back in. Glad to see it hasnt moved much, but has, as you say, ticked more boxes. Looks like minimal equity to fund this project, not sure why it hasn't jumped up from here. Tight capital structure as well (no huge amount of options like some of the RTOs).

[JBmurc]

No was really hoping to have been buying in again but my other investments aren't playing ball ....

[JBmurc]

Happy to once again be a ATC shareholder(thanks to MKO moving upwards) ...and would like to increase my position before the Finance is finalized and ATC heads upwards at a steady rate during construction then production to a 400-600mill Mrktcap ....(present 30.6mill)

[Dej]

Happy to once again be a ATC shareholder(thanks to MKO moving upwards) ...and would like to increase my position before the Finance is finalized and ATC heads upwards at a steady rate during construction then production to a 400-600mill Mrktcap ....(present 30.6mill)

You are lucky it has been subdued as of recently - welcome back JB.

[JBmurc]

Yes here's hoping it all goes to plan ..which so far it has

[Dej]

Yes here's hoping it all goes to plan ..which so far it has

Managed to double up - still ticking more boxes. Recent updates to project as follows:

- Secured Johor HPA site with 20 year lease (with options to extended further 20 years).
- Opened a Malaysian subsidiary office and hired a local project coordinator.
- Confirmation of global HPA demand as a part of the current due diligence being completed for debt financing.
- Targeting US$70m project debt for Malaysian HPA plant (total plant cost approximately $80 million as per 2016FY report)
- IRR of 33.3%, Pre TaxNet Present Value (@ 9% discount) US$357.5m (A$432.8m)
- At full production total annual sales revenue is US$92m (A$115m) applying an FOB sales price of US$23,000/t (A$25,560/t) of final HPA product. EBITDA $55.7m USD.

Main price triggers from now on:
- Debt funding term sheet agreed in Q1 2017
- Project equity in Q2 2017
- Site works to commence in Q2 2017
- Build time of 18 months, so production in early 2019.

As of September 2016, the capital structure includes:
- 11% held by Malaysian investors (6% of that in Melewar Equities Group - investment firm of the Negeri Sembilan Royal Family in Malaysia).
- Approximately 40% held in top 20 investors

[JBmurc]

If all goes to plan I will be at least doubling my holding before long ....Giant in the making here

[JBmurc]

Now starting to kick into gear guys ....now up 45% for the last month ...the profit +life span of deposit etc equal numbers truly staggering ...10x bagger looks quite possible within
the next 3yrs ...with longer term a Fat yield play

[JBmurc]

HUGE Volume keeps going like this and it will be the Biggest volume day for the last 12 months

[JBmurc]

ALTECH DEBT DUE DILIGENCE
AT AN ADVANCED STAGE
Highlights
• Debt due diligence at an advanced stage
• Confirmatory pilot plant test work in South Africa, Australia and Germany
• HPA market study completed
• Technical due diligence at an advanced stage
• Permitting in Malaysia and Australia progressed
Altech Chemicals Limited (Altech/the Company) (ASX: ATC) is pleased to provide an update on the due
diligence activities associated with the financing of its proposed high purity alumina (HPA) project. The various
independent reviews and associated confirmatory pilot plant test work are now well advanced and nearing
completion.
Altech has been working exclusively with German KfW IPEX-Bank on project finance structuring. The
Company is currently targeting US$70 million of project debt; the majority of which is aimed to be subject to
German export credit cover (ECA), typically offered at attractive interest rates and terms; the remainder is
expected to be available on normal commercial loan terms.
On 10 August 2016 the appointment of due diligence consultants by Altech and KfW IPEX-Bank was
announced. The consultants are engaged to undertake definitive technical, market and legal reviews of the
Company’s HPA project, with an independent “expert opinion” report presented at the conclusion of the
reviews for the benefit of the ECA.
The due diligence consultants completed site visits to Meckering, Fremantle and Perth, Western Australia and
to Johor, Malaysia in early August 2016 and their respective initial reviews did not identify any major flaws in
the HPA project. However various pilot plant confirmatory test work programs were requested and detailed
audits initiated accordingly. The test work programs and audits are now well advanced.
Commenting on the due diligence activities, Altech managing director Iggy Tan said, “The last five months
have been extremely busy for the Company as we worked with the various due diligence consultants to
complete confirmatory pilot plant test work and respond to a large number of detailed information requests.

[Dej]

Yep still holding - is about 18% of my ASX portfolio at the moment so probably won't be buying more....especially after the shock of GNX doing a capital raise 2 months after a capital raise my ASX portfolio is hurting!

Definitely ticking boxes though, and this announcement further shows the confidence. Personally I am happy that the DD team wanted pilot plant test work to be completed - means they are doing their job! Plenty of finance professionals not giving a toss about technical items and just adding in another risk factor (e.g. docking a valuation by 25% for 'technology uncertainty' when you could easily test it yourself).

Probably another month before anything meaningful though. Lets see if the temperamental ASX traders can hold out for that long :p





ALTECH DEBT DUE DILIGENCE
AT AN ADVANCED STAGE
Highlights
• Debt due diligence at an advanced stage
• Confirmatory pilot plant test work in South Africa, Australia and Germany
• HPA market study completed
• Technical due diligence at an advanced stage
• Permitting in Malaysia and Australia progressed
Altech Chemicals Limited (Altech/the Company) (ASX: ATC) is pleased to provide an update on the due
diligence activities associated with the financing of its proposed high purity alumina (HPA) project. The various
independent reviews and associated confirmatory pilot plant test work are now well advanced and nearing
completion.
Altech has been working exclusively with German KfW IPEX-Bank on project finance structuring. The
Company is currently targeting US$70 million of project debt; the majority of which is aimed to be subject to
German export credit cover (ECA), typically offered at attractive interest rates and terms; the remainder is
expected to be available on normal commercial loan terms.
On 10 August 2016 the appointment of due diligence consultants by Altech and KfW IPEX-Bank was
announced. The consultants are engaged to undertake definitive technical, market and legal reviews of the
Company’s HPA project, with an independent “expert opinion” report presented at the conclusion of the
reviews for the benefit of the ECA.
The due diligence consultants completed site visits to Meckering, Fremantle and Perth, Western Australia and
to Johor, Malaysia in early August 2016 and their respective initial reviews did not identify any major flaws in
the HPA project. However various pilot plant confirmatory test work programs were requested and detailed
audits initiated accordingly. The test work programs and audits are now well advanced.
Commenting on the due diligence activities, Altech managing director Iggy Tan said, “The last five months
have been extremely busy for the Company as we worked with the various due diligence consultants to
complete confirmatory pilot plant test work and respond to a large number of detailed information requests.

[shasta]

Had a look into them, all looks good until i read the ramp up period where they are using lower quality/much lower value HPA initially.

All the valuations at 23,000/t HPA 4 seem redundant to me until they are actually achieving this, or have i missed something?

How are they going to service the debt in the short term?

[JBmurc]

Had a look into them, all looks good until i read the ramp up period where they are using lower quality/much lower value HPA initially.

All the valuations at 23,000/t HPA 4 seem redundant to me until they are actually achieving this, or have i missed something?

How are they going to service the debt in the short term?

I understand the current HPA 4 price is around USD $30,000t ...

• HPA plant will have an initial production capacity of 4ktpa of 99.99% HPA
(4N quality)

◦ This would position Altech as the largest producer of HPA in the world,
surpassing Sumitomo’s 3.2ktpa capacity

then with min mine life of 30yrs ...certainly plenty of time to pay back the debt needed to build and ramp up production ....

But as with any decent Mineral producer we'll have a predator keeping a close eye on operations ... and think it won't be long after successive operations we will be taken out for $1+ etc

[kiwitrev]

Hi JB and DEJ
You not alone on this one. Yesterday's action certainly looked like the fox is in the henhouse causing concern for many being unsure what's going on. One thing that hasn't changed is ATC business plan and no release of bad news-the good news still to come still on track so today's trading will be very interesting.

[shasta]

Joined in today at 13.5c, to reduce being overweight in copper stocks.

I like the potential and sorting the debt/project financing derisks this significantly

[kiwitrev]

For the benefit of those not yet in.

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-altech-initiation-research-report.3230696/?post_id=22659179#.WKT3WoVOIcg

[Joshuatree]

Funny can't access report; but thats typical of me. Int in their explanation ,why Malaysa; it become a major headache for LYC i think with the opposition from locals.

[kiwitrev]

OK try this one this one then

http://www.altechchemicals.com/sites/altechchemicals.com/files/asx-announcements/Ann%20ATC%20ASX%20Initiation%20Research%20Report%2 016%20Feb%202017%20%28Lodged%29.pdf

[kiwitrev]

Written summary of initial coverage at:

http://www.altechchemicals.com/sites/altechchemicals.com/files/files/Doc%20ATC%20TSI%20Initiation%20written%20report%20 jcarewreid%2016%20Feb%202017(1).pdf

[Joshuatree]

Thanks guys am in today. SPP @ 14c for $2 millionsunderpins things.Been 6 years on the go for some patient holders. Just need the finance announcement and hopefully that will be the rerate catalyst.. DYOR

[kiwitrev]

Thanks guys am in today. SPP @ 14c for $2 millionsunderpins things.Been 6 years on the go for some patient holders. Just need the finance announcement and hopefully that will be the rerate catalyst.. DYOR

Not just any old SPP but placement to cornerstone investor - 14ml shares. Just so much to like about this coy with positives throughout, too many to mention here but a sample: owns own feedstock, low cost very high return on sale of end product, 10 yr offtake agreement with Mitsubishi, low cost of finance with German bank (when approved) projected to be repaid within 4yrs from profits. Smart move to go for the finance option as this preserves SP instead of a massive SPP with huge dilution. Analysts reports highly favourable. Finance originally due Q1 2017 reset Q2 2017 has slowed both SP and volumes in recent times. Ready for take-off.
DYOR

[Dej]

As per my post of HC, see below:

This is an interesting turn of events.

Orbite technologies is a company that is often mentioned in our reports as our closest comparison for HPA production from a different feedstock. The Cap-Chat plant (their flagship facility) started running in October last year and production output reached 1tpd HPA by the end of February this year.

As announced on the 31st of March 2017, the company has had trouble with its calciners of its recently commissioned plant, see announcement below:

http://s2.q4cdn.com/622589029/files...7_03_31_ORT_PR_Q4_2016_Results_and_Update. pdf (http://s2.q4cdn.com/622589029/files/doc_news/2017/03/2017_03_31_ORT_PR_Q4_2016_Results_and_Update.pdf)

As announced on the 3rd of April 2017, the company has announced that it "has filed a Notice of Intention (the "NOI") to make a proposal under the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act (Canada) (the "BIA")", stating "after carefully reviewing all relevant circumstances with the help of its advisors, the Company believes this measure is the best way to protect all stakeholders and will best facilitate its efforts to renegotiate its debt, work through the potential insurance coverage and raise the funds needed to remedy the supplied equipment issues." Link below.

http://www.orbitetech.com/English/i...Stay-of-Proceedings-on-Creditors/default.aspx (http://www.orbitetech.com/English/investors/news/news-details/2017/Orbite-Announces-Filing-for-Stay-of-Proceedings-on-Creditors/default.aspx)

In summary, the issues with the supplied calcination equipment have added to the existing external capital costs and would have potentially led to a default of the company’s credit facilities.

As announced on the 17th of April 2017, the company has now delisted from the TSX due to its filing under the BIA. Link below.

http://www.orbitetech.com/English/i...-of-Intention-to-Make-a-Proposal/default.aspx (http://www.orbitetech.com/English/investors/news/news-details/2017/TSX-to-De-List-Orbites-Securities-as-a-Result-of-the-Company-Having-Filed-a-Notice-of-Intention-to-Make-a-Proposal/default.aspx)

As stated below:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/orbite-announces-filing-stay-proceedings-124638297.html (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/orbite-announces-filing-stay-proceedings-124638297.html)

"Failure by the company to achieve its financing and restructuring goals will likely result in the company becoming bankrupt."

[JBmurc]

--looks likely I will have some more funds to invest soon got to love the outlook on
ATC's Bankable Feasibility Study, which confirmed it can pump out 4,000 tonnes per annum of HPA, generating $60M EBITDA a year at full capacity is why they're willing to fund them in the first place. This is based on HPA at $15,000 per tonne, it can sell for $23,000 per tonne. Current market cap $37 million.

[shasta]

--looks likely I will have some more funds to invest soon got to love the outlook on
ATC's Bankable Feasibility Study, which confirmed it can pump out 4,000 tonnes per annum of HPA, generating $60M EBITDA a year at full capacity is why they're willing to fund them in the first place. This is based on HPA at $15,000 per tonne, it can sell for $23,000 per tonne. Current market cap $37 million.

HPA4 is selling for $30,000 per tonne in Japan

[kiwitrev]

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01861732

Latest ann. re DD. Just keeps on getting into a stronger position and rewards should be forthcoming in a little while. GLTA holders.

[JBmurc]

Yes I see they have extended 5% discount to VWAP capital raising to 6th or was it 7th june ....be great buying at these levels

[silu]

Very interesting company and fits in perfectly with my investment philosophy. Will do more research but buying a small parcel at these levels can't hurt.

[Dej]

Very interesting company and fits in perfectly with my investment philosophy. Will do more research but buying a small parcel at these levels can't hurt.

Welcome to another one of my investments Silu

[shasta]

I'm still holding ATC, if you like this type of investment also check out TNG ...

First was Lithium, then Graphite, now Cobalt... next big thing? i'm watching PEK very closely...

[JBmurc]

So stoked to see ATC kick into gear today(after buying more 10.5c) ...must be some inside info going here after a month of nil news something good is coming

[silu]

Had an order in at 10c (would have been fulfilled) which I had to cancel due to house I wanted to buy at auction. Now that I was unsuccessful I'm looking for a way in again. Is there anything in the news pipeline that would explain that little bounce?

[JBmurc]

Nothing yet but so often you see these bounces pre-ann's .....sometines knowledge from other sources outside IRC direct control

the upside here is HUGE ,,,,

[silu]

Had a bid in at 10.5c for the last 2 weeks and although it was trading at that price I didn't get my order filled. Changed it to 11c. Looks too exciting a prospect to stay on the sideline for too long.

[silu]

Got my order filled at 11c late afternoon yesterday. Looking forward to discussing ATC's future with y'all.

[JBmurc]

Got my order filled at 11c late afternoon yesterday. Looking forward to discussing ATC's future with y'all.

Yes hopefully as it trends much higher on funding secured ...all is going to plan IMHO

[kiwitrev]

Yes hopefully as it trends much higher on funding secured ...all is going to plan IMHO

The plan appears to be working out just fine. Getting closer to deadline for debt finance and after a period of stagnant price movement and very little volume today good volume and 12% on the plus side to 14cps.

[silu]

They are getting all their ducks in a row and I'm really glad I got on board.

[yabster]

Positive announcement today-"successful conclusion of project due diligence with no fatal flaws -ECA decison by 14/12

[yabster]

Emailed the company re the capacity confusion (on Hot Copper anyway) Shanes reply:

"To clarify - yes, the plant is now upgraded to an annual capacity of 4,500tpa, but production mix can be split between HPA for the sapphire industry - e.g. 100% at 4,500tpa, or up to 1,500tpa for the Lithium-ion battery sector - in such a case production for the sapphire industry will be reduced to 3,000tpa. So we now have flexibility of product mix, but limited to overall annual output of 4,500tpa"

The BFS uses a conservative $us23k per tonne so an addition of $us11.5m of revenue -maybe more if the mix is as above - obviously costs will go up and appears the capex will to- so additional finance costs - but looks really good to me.

[silu]

@yabster - and if I did read right it was at the behest of the financiers to increase the output capacity. Seems as if the Germans have done their homework on this one (and no one should be surprised about that).
Current MC just a smidgens over 40mil.

[Joshuatree]

Yes due diligence done but int phrase re "no fatal flaws" but could be a lot of injuries on the way to nameplate.A good few steps up the hill, now we await the next one in a few months.

[BlackPeter]

Good presentation for this weeks investor conference:

https://www.google.de/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjSp6KmprjWAhVEGsAKHcekBugQtwIILzAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D43--l0Bd83I&usg=AFQjCNGCK9q2kmNpojz-uuUKcjOJhrnoPg

[JBmurc]

Muti-Bagger if it all come off ....which IMHO I'm confident it will when you add in demand and advantages over peers >>>>>a core long term HOLD for me ...unless mgmt or market do something stupid

[shasta]

Muti-Bagger if it all come off ....which IMHO I'm confident it will when you add in demand and advantages over peers >>>>>a core long term HOLD for me ...unless mgmt or market do something stupid

All looks good, but the nameplate production and when the HPA4 kicks in bothers me, can they control costs while it ramps up.

Also not happy with there scattergun approach to cap raising, burn rate needs to come down before I buy back in.

I'll pay more when things start to move in the right direction

[BlackPeter]

All looks good, but the nameplate production and when the HPA4 kicks in bothers me, can they control costs while it ramps up.

Also not happy with there scattergun approach to cap raising, burn rate needs to come down before I buy back in.

I'll pay more when things start to move in the right direction

You want to expand on your comments?

What's wrong in your view with the intended production capacity? As far as I remember - the number is quite stable for years ... but has in the last design be upgraded from 4000 t/a to 4500 t/a. What is your concern?

Ah yes - and what do you mean with HPA4 kicking in? I assume you mean HPA 4N? Do you believe they can't deliver on the promised purity? Why?

[shasta]

Certainly. If you refer to the Jan 19th investor information pack, page 18 the ramp up of production shows the 4,000tpa of the HPA 4N not until year 4/5 with the 1st 3 years a blend of Smelter grade and 3N product.

The disparity in pricing means any increase in costs and the figures get ugly quickly. Reading the first part of the presentation the revenue figure $92m (4,000*$23,000) isn't likely until year 4 at least.

For a long life 30+ year project, the IRR of 33% isn't earth shattering, and with all mining companies, delays, increase in costs, are inevitable.

I still like the company, just a few concerns about the timing of getting to the $$$ they are stating, plus any technical issues getting the HPA 4N purity at scale.

[BlackPeter]

Certainly. If you refer to the Jan 19th investor information pack, page 18 the ramp up of production shows the 4,000tpa of the HPA 4N not until year 4/5 with the 1st 3 years a blend of Smelter grade and 3N product.

The disparity in pricing means any increase in costs and the figures get ugly quickly. Reading the first part of the presentation the revenue figure $92m (4,000*$23,000) isn't likely until year 4 at least.

For a long life 30+ year project, the IRR of 33% isn't earth shattering, and with all mining companies, delays, increase in costs, are inevitable.

I still like the company, just a few concerns about the timing of getting to the $$$ they are stating, plus any technical issues getting the HPA 4N purity at scale.

Thanks for your reply, and - fair enough.

It would be interesting to understand why they think (or thought in January) that it takes 4 to 5 years to optimise their process - even if they call their assumptions "conservative".

On the other hand - most of the output is still HPA 4N (but admittedly starting with only 50% of nameplate capacity).

Will be interesting to see whether they change these graphs as one of the outcomes of the current export credit approval process. Obviously - they changed already the design and increased the nameplate capacity. It looks like the bank does a lot of due diligence, including further investigations into the process. I guess whatever they learn now they don't need to learn anymore in the completed factory, i.e. confident they will be able to ramp up faster after this process.

All good old-fashioned derisking.

[Radler]

I've also just jumped on board this morning after watching these for a little while.

[kiwitrev]

I think a previous poster made reference to the following valuation report:

http://www.altechchemicals.com/sites/altechchemicals.com/files/news/ATC%20DJ%20Carmichael%20Update%20Finance%20Report% 2023%20Aug%2016.pdf

[JBmurc]

I think a previous poster made reference to the following valuation report:

http://www.altechchemicals.com/sites/altechchemicals.com/files/news/ATC%20DJ%20Carmichael%20Update%20Finance%20Report% 2023%20Aug%2016.pdf

Yep I'll be happy to take 33c for my lot ....

[kiwitrev]

I think a previous poster made reference to the following valuation report:

http://www.altechchemicals.com/sites/altechchemicals.com/files/news/ATC%20DJ%20Carmichael%20Update%20Finance%20Report% 2023%20Aug%2016.pdf

Apologies, picked up an earlier valuation in error. Try this one from Feb. 2017

http://www.altechchemicals.com/sophisticated-investor

[kiwitrev]

Apologies, picked up an earlier valuation in error. Try this one from Feb. 2017

http://www.altechchemicals.com/sophisticated-investor

And also from Feb 2017 a different valuation

http://www.altechchemicals.com/sites/altechchemicals.com/files/files/Doc%20ATC%20TSI%20Initiation%20written%20report%20 jcarewreid%2016%20Feb%202017(1).pdf

[silu]

Article of interest:

http://www.resourcesrisingstars.com.au/news-article/iggy-seeks-repeat-his-lithium-trail-blazing-time-high-purity-alumina
Iggy seeks to repeat his lithium trail-blazing, this time in high-purity alumina
Plus, Great Boulder set to drill numerous large copper-nickel conductors, Breaker ticks the metallurgy box and Anglo Australian thinks big on Kalgoorlie’s doorstep.

6th October 2017

Barry FitzGerald

Iggy Tan was ahead of his time when he set up Galaxy Resources (GXY) to prosper from the lithium-ion battery boom.

Galaxy is now a $1.2 billion company. But when Iggy left the company in June 2013, the boom had not arrived as expected and times were tough for the company and for Iggy himself.

But since 2014 Iggy has been nurturing his new baby, Altech Chemicals (ATC). And like his ahead-of-the-curve work in the lithium space with Galaxy, Iggy is now doing the same for Altech in the fast-growing high-purity alumina (HPA) space.

HPA is not a big-tonnage market, with global demand of about 25,000 tonnes in 2016. But like lithium, it is a high-growth market, with industry forecasters predicting a 17% compound annual growth rate to more than 86,000 tonnes by 2024.

There are some good reasons for that which go to newer and growing applications for HPA. The stuff is used to make clear synthetic sapphire glass (natural sapphires are coloured by impurities) for use in LED lights, and the scratch-resistant glass used in Smartphone screens and lenses.

And given Iggy’s trail-blazing background in lithium, it’s nice to know another fast-growing use of HPA is as the separator between the anode and cathode in lithium ion batteries. It stops them catching fire, which is something Samsung knows all about.

From that it can be taken that HPA is also a high-value, high-margin business. The 99.99% purity HPA that Altech plans to produce (it is missing the impurities found in 99.5% smelter grade alumina (SGA) used to make aluminium) from its proposed integrated operation involving a kaolin mine at Meckering, some 130km from Fremantle, and a processing plant in Malaysia, currently fetches $US27,000 a tonne. SGA sells for $US400 a tonne on a good day.

So it doesn’t take much production of the stuff to have meaningful financial metrics. Altech is shooting for annual production of 4,500 tonnes of HPA, an amount that the market’s 17% CAGR should comfortably accommodate without any price destabilisation.

On previous feasibility study work, which needs to be updated, the capital cost was put at $US78.7m. Assuming operating costs of $US9,000 a tonne and a conservative selling price of $US23,000 a tonne, the payback period for a “stage one” project of 30 years was estimated at 3.7 years. The pre-tax NPV was estimated at $US357.5m.

Altech has been trading at 14c for a market cap of $A40m. So there is a clear disconnect there between the upside of Iggy’s plan and the current market value. And it’s basically down to financing his HPA ambition.

A critical date is almost upon us – December 14. It’s when German government-owned export credit agencies say yes or no to the debt component of Iggy’s HPA proposal, remembering that German engineering and equipment suppliers will account for about 60% of the project.

Iggy told Resources Rising Stars he is very confident that credit approval will be granted. But he is also realistic enough to admit that it might not. There will be a plan B. But for everyone’s nerves, it would be a great thing, and a game-changing event, if the Germans were to step up to the plate come mid-December.

[kiwitrev]

Summary of latest presentation follows.

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/iggy-seeks-to-repeat-his-lithium-trail-blazing.3737196/page-10?post_id=27730560

[Joshuatree]

Thanks guys ; not long to wait. If we had to go to a Plan b ,it may not be very appetising for holders or the s/p if the German govt didn't have confidence to part fund the project.Fingers crossed that won't be a necessary option.

[kiwitrev]

Thanks guys ; not long to wait. If we had to go to a Plan b ,it may not be very appetising for holders or the s/p if the German govt didn't have confidence to part fund the project.Fingers crossed that won't be a necessary option.

JT, market liking it now. Up 10% at open and sellers hard to find.

[JBmurc]

Loving the trend ...ATC will really take off come DEC if we get the funding

[BlackPeter]

Loving the trend ...ATC will really take off come DEC if we get the funding

Absolutely - I'd expect SP to at least double from here (i.e. early 30'ies) if & when finance is confirmed ... this would be a significant step towards de-risking, particularly after all that great due diligence the German KfW requested.

Feels like a very well managed process ...

[silu]

Important dates to remember:
• All consultants report 10 October
• Final EPC price from SMS 16 October
• Expert opinion report 9 Nov 2017
• IMA ECA approval meeting 14 Dec 2017

Taken from Iggy's CEO presentation to Proactive Investors last week http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/upload/SponsorFile/File/2017_10/1507109586_Altech-Chemicals-Proactive-Investors-CEO-Presentation-October-2017.pdf

[BlackPeter]

Nice share price appreciation and volumes - the trend should make not just TA hearts beat faster; Throw in the recent speed ticket from the ASX - every little bit helps ;).

Recent interview with Iggy - giving a nice summary of the recent development:

https://www.abnnewswire.net/amp/en/90289/FINANCE-VIDEO-Altech-Chemicals-%28ASX-ATC%29-Debt-Financing-Nears-Completion-90289.html

discl: holding and just loving it ...

[kiwitrev]

Nice share price appreciation and volumes - the trend should make not just TA hearts beat faster; Throw in the recent speed ticket from the ASX - every little bit helps ;).

Recent interview with Iggy - giving a nice summary of the recent development:

https://www.abnnewswire.net/amp/en/90289/FINANCE-VIDEO-Altech-Chemicals-%28ASX-ATC%29-Debt-Financing-Nears-Completion-90289.html

discl: holding and just loving it ...

The market is starting to believe in this story-up 9% at 2pm on very low volume-noone wants to sell.

[BlackPeter]

The market is starting to believe in this story-up 9% at 2pm on very low volume-noone wants to sell.

Yep, fun to watch. All shares at 19 cents are gone. Do I hear 20?

[kiwitrev]

Yep, fun to watch. All shares at 19 cents are gone. Do I hear 20?

BP - Can only think short selling now or EPC contract price due today leaked and grossly over expectation.

[Joshuatree]

Cant see anything on shortman trev, hopefully a quick blip to 16.5c and on again, back on 18c atm.

[BlackPeter]

BP - Can only think short selling now or EPC contract price due today leaked and grossly over expectation.

No panic ... up again.

Hope however that they don't wait too long with their announcement on the final EPS price. Might take however at least until tomorrow given that I assume the 16th. of October is SMS-time (Germany is 11 hours behind NZ).

[silu]

Its the 16th October in Germany for 2 more hours so hopefully EPC price will be announced first thing ASX morning.

[silu]

However with these dates still to come
• Final EPC price from SMS 16 October
• Expert opinion report 9 Nov 2017
• IMA ECA approval meeting 14 Dec 2017
I kinda expect the SP to do weird things until then. The coming weeks will be full of speculations, down- and up-ramping and with it some big percentage rises and falls. Happy to hold though.

[kiwitrev]

Yep, fun to watch. All shares at 19 cents are gone. Do I hear 20?

Sure is fun times. Double fun for me as also holding BUL (on a tear and going higher), and maybe, just maybe also GLL with today's ann. re pipeline.

[Joshuatree]

Capital cost higher now $298 mill IRR 22% 3.9 years to pay off debt "The HPA price used in the Project financial model is US$33.72/kg in year 1, reducing to US$ 26.18/kg in year 9 and maintained at this level until year 30 " Current price in Japan $US 40. kg, finance decision in Dec. KFW Ipex Bank proposed to fund $185 million. Sell on the fact tomorrow?
Download Document 1018.37KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYC5gi%2 FzRGZoeN6ke92GA%3D%3D)

[kiwitrev]

Capital cost higher now $298 mill IRR 22% 3.9 years to pay off debt "The HPA price used in the Project financial model is US$33.72/kg in year 1, reducing to US$ 26.18/kg in year 9 and maintained at this level until year 30 " Current price in Japan $US 40. kg, finance decision in Dec. KFW Ipex Bank proposed to fund $185 million. Sell on the fact tomorrow?
Download Document 1018.37KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYC5gi%2 FzRGZoeN6ke92GA%3D%3D)

Sure looks like an opportunity to entry at lower SP no doubt to come in short term. Med/LT still a great project, fundamentals to business case not changed just the cost of getting up and running which is covered by forecast to EBIT and payback period.

[shasta]

Sure looks like an opportunity to entry at lower SP no doubt to come in short term. Med/LT still a great project, fundamentals to business case not changed just the cost of getting up and running which is covered by forecast to EBIT and payback period.

The forecasts all look rosy for the future at full ramp up capacity, but the one figure that concerns me is the IRR 22%, very low for what is meant to be a high demand product, large long life project. Only takes a few technical problems getting the purity consistent or increase in costs and that figure gets marginal.

The fact they have stated the price is likely to taper off doesn't help either...

I'll wait until they get the purity right in production before buying back in

[kiwitrev]

The forecasts all look rosy for the future at full ramp up capacity, but the one figure that concerns me is the IRR 22%, very low for what is meant to be a high demand product, large long life project. Only takes a few technical problems getting the purity consistent or increase in costs and that figure gets marginal.

The fact they have stated the price is likely to taper off doesn't help either...

I'll wait until they get the purity right in production before buying back in

Holders will be aware of this publication but am posting it for benefit of non-holders.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/west-australian.3791937/page-3?post_id=28281033#.WfTxIrpuKZ8

[Joshuatree]

Thanks KT, i hadn't cited that announcement on friday . Awaiting German Govt sign off on the 14th Dec which looks a done deal atp.

"Interestingly, the study was based on a highly conservative average HPA price of US$26.90/kg over the 30-year initial project life. The study noted that if the current HPA market price of US$40/kg was assumed, the project would then show an internal rate of return of 33%, an annual EBITDA of AUD$170m and a net present value of just over AUD$1.4 billion"

[Joshuatree]

BTW I've coatailed into FYI with an initial small stake.
Download Document 1.12MB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYC5gm8z BeZpu5wke92GA%3D%3D)

[kiwitrev]

Thanks KT, i hadn't cited that announcement on friday . Awaiting German Govt sign off on the 14th Dec which looks a done deal atp.

"Interestingly, the study was based on a highly conservative average HPA price of US$26.90/kg over the 30-year initial project life. The study noted that if the current HPA market price of US$40/kg was assumed, the project would then show an internal rate of return of 33%, an annual EBITDA of AUD$170m and a net present value of just over AUD$1.4 billion"

And here is another interview with Iggy, much more detailed info. read it right thru'.
https://theconstantinvestor.com/the-demand-for-sapphire/

[silu]

Thanks for sharing Trev. Was particularly please about this line "The company’s currently valued at about $55-60 million on the stock exchange, it tripled in the last couple of years and Iggy is saying that given all of the stuff that they’ve locked in, that is the offtake agreement and supply agreements and so on, they’ll be making at least that much in cash in three years’ time per annum".

[kiwitrev]

Thanks for sharing Trev. Was particularly please about this line "The company’s currently valued at about $55-60 million on the stock exchange, it tripled in the last couple of years and Iggy is saying that given all of the stuff that they’ve locked in, that is the offtake agreement and supply agreements and so on, they’ll be making at least that much in cash in three years’ time per annum".

No worries, here's another from Sophisticated Investorshttps://hotcopper.com.au/threads/news-final-investment-decision-study-followed-by-successful-17m-raising.3795099/?post_id=28314669#.WfafULpuKZ8

[silu]

I feel really good about the SMS involvement. These guys are no mugs. The fact that they offer fixed lump sum construction of the plant and guarantee quality control makes me rest easy.

[kiwitrev]

I feel really good about the SMS involvement. These guys are no mugs. The fact that they offer fixed lump sum construction of the plant and guarantee quality control makes me rest easy.

Latest presentation, significantly in Germany.
http://www.altechchemicals.com/sites/altechchemicals.com/files/asx-announcements/6859386.pdf

[kiwitrev]

This stock really gaining traction past few weeks with deadline for project finance fast approaching. Another 8% north so far today S/P 20.5c on heavy volume.

[BlackPeter]

This stock really gaining traction past few weeks with deadline for project finance fast approaching. Another 8% north so far today S/P 20.5c on heavy volume.

Certainly healthy volumes and nice upwards trend ...

Question is - where do we see the SP going after the KfW credit approval?

[silu]

Certainly healthy volumes and nice upwards trend ...

Question is - where do we see the SP going after the KfW credit approval?

My little back of the envelope calculations says about 38-40c but that depends on the CR.

[kiwitrev]

Certainly healthy volumes and nice upwards trend ...

Question is - where do we see the SP going after the KfW credit approval?

Just from memory I seem to recall that 35c was the touted sum many months ago but that was before the material change in project cost/EBIT/increase in output of product and profits.

[kiwitrev]

More reason to get in b4 too late at bargain S/P
http://www.mining.com/breakthrough-company-mines-money-2017/

[Joshuatree]

Did you forget for a moment which website you're on Trev:t_up:, Anyways spruik of the day and a glass of Lindauer Summer sparkly to you, cheersJT

[kiwitrev]

Did you forget for a moment which website you're on Trev:t_up:, Anyways spruik of the day and a glass of Lindauer Summer sparkly to you, cheersJT

Slow learner JT. Not Lindauer but nice alternative - you sound a bit chipper like our boat's about to come in.

[kiwitrev]

Two days 'til finance approval. Market seems to be pricing in a favourable outcome SP north another 12% to 23.5c with two hours trading remaining for day.

[Joshuatree]

Looks like ive been taken out at 23.5c. My low risk hi reward wise strategy. Did great with FYI as well. Hope finance comes through and it rockets for you guys.

[kiwitrev]

Looks like ive been taken out at 23.5c. My low risk hi reward wise strategy. Did great with FYI as well. Hope finance comes through and it rockets for you guys.

Thanks for the company while it lasted.

[kiwitrev]

Looks like ive been taken out at 23.5c. My low risk hi reward wise strategy. Did great with FYI as well. Hope finance comes through and it rockets for you guys.

I forgot to ask - what are you going to channel your ill gotten gains into?

[kiwitrev]

Two days 'til finance approval. Market seems to be pricing in a favourable outcome SP north another 12% to 23.5c with two hours trading remaining for day.

Close 14% @ 24c - over 3m changed hands.

[BlackPeter]

Looks like ive been taken out at 23.5c. My low risk hi reward wise strategy. Did great with FYI as well. Hope finance comes through and it rockets for you guys.

Good on you for getting out - I guess the price couldn't rise if nobody would sell - couldn't it?

Personally I would think that the chances for the KfW Finance approval look quite good (SMS, the company who designed the factory has not just lots of experience with the German export credit system, but as well with ATC's specific process).

Plan to hang in for the longer run (within the framework of my personal diversification policy - if SP gets too high, I intend to sell some of my shares to mitigate risk).

[silu]

As if the rising SP wasn't already an indication of a positive announcement it has just been confirmed that it received a positive decision for the German Export credit cover.

[kiwitrev]

As if the rising SP wasn't already an indication of a positive announcement it has just been confirmed that it received a positive decision for the German Export credit cover.

Fantastic result. The SP will take off today. Congratulations to all holders. Now we find out who will get out for a quick buck or extend the ride where unbelievable gains await.

[BlackPeter]

Fantastic result. The SP will take off today. Congratulations to all holders. Now we find out who will get out for a quick buck or extend the ride where unbelievable gains await.

Christmas came early ... didn't really expected that they announce the decision that fast.

This must be my best performing stock this year (closely followed by ATM, SML and PPH) ... and so much potential to keep rising!

[BlackPeter]

https://www.businessnews.com.au/article/Carmichael-set-Altech-price-target-at-more-than-double

[silu]

https://www.businessnews.com.au/article/Carmichael-set-Altech-price-target-at-more-than-double

Thanks for sharing. I've set aside a good chunk of money for the CR.

[silu]

Company update via http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/193040/altech-chemicals-has-key-catalyst-on-the-horizon-as-it-trades-at-steep-discount-to-broker-valuations-193040.html

Altech Chemicals has key catalyst on the horizon as it trades at steep discount to broker valuations
11:50 14 Mar 2018
High purity alumina (HPA) is a high-value, robust margin and heavily sought-after product.
HPA is used in LED lighting
INVESTMENT
OVERVIEW: ATC
THE BIG
PICTURE
DJ Carmichael's modelling points to maiden revenues of about $100 million in fiscal 2020
Altech Chemicals Ltd (ASX:ATC) made significant progress towards becoming one of the world's leading suppliers of 99.99% high purity alumina (HPA) in the last 12 months.

HPA is a high-value, robust margin and heavily sought-after product as it is the critical ingredient required for the production of synthetic sapphire.

There is no substitution for HPA in the manufacture of synthetic sapphire, which in turn is used in the manufacture of mass-market products.

Is there a significant re-rating in the wind?
There are multiple share price catalysts on the horizon which could see Altech trade more in line with broker valuations in 2018.

It is worth noting at this stage that DJ Carmichael’s valuation of 37 cents per share implies potential upside of about 140% to Tuesday’s closing price of 15.5 cents.

Iggy Tan, managing director, pointed to some of the upcoming developments at Altech during an interview with Proactive Investors.

He said, “The major catalyst for the company is when we finalise the balance of funds for the project, which is expected to occur in mid-2018.

Highlighting the already strong financial support the company has received, Tan said, “The project is backed by world-class companies like Mitsubishi for the offtake, KFW IPEX for debt finance and SMS Group as EPC (plant construction) partner.

"From a standing start three years ago, the team has advanced this project to close of debt funding in such a short time."

Technology drives demand for synthetic sapphire
Synthetic sapphire is used in the manufacture of substrates for LED lights, semiconductor wafers used in electronics, and scratch-resistant sapphire glass.

There are numerous applications for sapphire glass including wristwatch faces, optical windows and smartphone components.

Looking specifically at LED lights, Navigant Research is forecasting demand to increase to more than 4.1 billion by 2024, equating to growth of about 400% in less than 10 years.

Exponential growth in HPA demand
With increased usage of LEDs and a myriad of other applications on the horizon, Navigant forecasts demand for HPA to increase to about 87,000 tonnes per annum by 2024.

Annual global HPA demand is about 25,000 tonnes, but it is growing at a compound annual growth rate of 16.7%, primarily driven to date by the worldwide adoption of LEDs.

However, this rate of growth could accelerate as applications in the lithium-ion battery industry materialise.

Patents provide path to protection
Altech lodged a new provisional patent application with the Australian Patent Office in February.

READ: Altech Chemicals patent application further protects high purity alumina technology
This incorporates the finished product HPA technology developed for its HPA project, expanding on a previous patent lodged in October 2014.



An impression of the proposed Malaysian HPA plant

The new patent application incorporates various refinements made to the company’s HPA processing route during project due diligence.

New product taps into lithium-ion battery industry
The expanded patent incorporates the company’s latest invention, the flexible finished product line.

This is capable of producing HPA product for the synthetic sapphire industry and the lithium-ion battery industry (powder at sub-micron particle size).

Altech cited research indicating that third-generation battery safety will make current battery technology obsolete.

The company’s HPA product can be used as a lithium-ion battery separator that is situated between the cathode sheet and anode sheet of a traditional lithium-ion battery.

Use of similar technology would represent patent breach
As an emerging player in the HPA market, Altech’s competitive position and the strength of its technology has recently been enhanced.

The company undertook extensive due diligence in terms of confirming its distribution markets and the protection of its intellectual property.

The search confirmed Altech’s view that its intellectual property for producing HPA from kaolin/aluminous material using its hydrochloric acid-based processing technology is unique.

As such, any other party that employs a similar process to produce HPA would most likely be in breach of Altech’s patent applications.

Financing substantially de-risks project
Altech negotiated a total debt package of US$190 million in early February, dispensing with one of the more significant hurdles the company faced in bringing its project to market.

The financing consists of a US$170 million debt package negotiated with the German export credit agency (ECA), with the balance of US$20 million at normal commercial terms.

The ECA covered loan is for an extended period with highly attractive terms, providing Altech with ample time to build the plant and bring it into production.

READ: Altech Chemicals finalises US$190 million finance package for alumina plant
Increased clarity surrounding funding provided positive investor sentiment with the company’s shares increasing from about 15 cents to 17.5 cents in the ensuing week.

While subsequent volatility in broader global equity markets has eroded some of these gains, there are catalysts on the horizon that suggest this retracement could present a buying opportunity.

Broker updates valuation following financing
Paul Adams, analyst at DJ Carmichael, upgraded his valuation by 15.6% to 37 cents following the financing agreement.

This implies upside of about 150% to the company’s current trading range.

He believes there is the prospect of a part equity sell down in terms of achieving the equity component of project financing.

Based on his assumptions regarding this scenario, his valuation would move to 42 cents.

Maiden revenues in 2020
Adams’ modelling points to maiden revenues of about $100 million being generated in fiscal 2020, increasing to $180 million in 2022.

At this point, Adams estimates that the company will be generating underlying earnings of about $125 million.

With the prospect of minimal taxation during this period, these numbers appear particularly impressive.

Tax benefits
The HPA project’s financial fundamentals would be boosted by Altech being attributed ‘Pioneer Status’ by the Malaysian government.

Tan views this prospect as a key development, saying, “The approval of pioneer status for the project and the associated tax incentives will be another important catalyst.”

The possibility of this coming to fruition increased in February when the government received a manufacturing licence approval for its 4500 tonnes per annum plant.

READ: Altech Chemicals has manufacturing licence approved for HPA plant in Malaysia
Should this be formalised, the company will benefit from income tax exemption relating to 100% of the company’s statutory income for a period of five years from commencement of commercial production.

Any accumulated losses and unabsorbed capital allowances during this period can be carried forward and deducted from post-Pioneer Status period income.

Should Altech be awarded Pioneer Status, a large proportion of the underlying earnings projected by DJ Carmichael would drop to the bottom line.

Given its earnings sensitivity, such a development could be a share price catalyst.

[silu]

Article of interest:
This is one of the most sought-after substances among ASX investors
https://stockhead.com.au/resources/high-purity-alumina-caught-eye-investors-sent-share-prices-soaring/

[silu]

New Company presentation: https://www.altechchemicals.com/sites/altechchemicals.com/files/asx-announcements/6883083.pdf
Petra Capital Research Report (target 41c): https://www.altechchemicals.com/sites/altechchemicals.com/files/news/Altech%20leads%20HPA%20peers%20-%20Petra%20Capital%2024%20Apr%202018.pdf

[BlackPeter]

New Company presentation: https://www.altechchemicals.com/sites/altechchemicals.com/files/asx-announcements/6883083.pdf
Petra Capital Research Report (target 41c): https://www.altechchemicals.com/sites/altechchemicals.com/files/news/Altech%20leads%20HPA%20peers%20-%20Petra%20Capital%2024%20Apr%202018.pdf

cheers for posting - interesting research report, particularly the comparison to ATC's competitors.

I do note that based on the Petra Capital assumptions ATC will be only in 2022 cash flow positive (that's two years later than the Carmichel report which came out in February), not flash but probably more realistic. It does take time to build a factory and get it running.

Interesting that they still come up with a higher value (Petra Cap 41 cts vs Carmichels 37 cents) ... but obviously both don't know how the final funding will look like - i.e. we shall see.

[silu]

Yes I did like the direct comparison to the competitors too. As it's such a new industry I feel comfortable seeing ATC being way ahead of them. In addition we have a fantastic debt deal and SMS Group as the lead engineer firm. I hope the financial close is not too far away and we can start constructing. I'd think that by 2022 ATC will have additional fires in the oven.

[silu]

First mezzanine debt term sheet for up to US$120m received. Coupled that with the already signed-off senior debt we hopefully have the expected equity raise soon and can start construction.

[Joshuatree]

Altech - Malaysian Manufacturing Licence Received (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/4221484/)

[kiwitrev]

Altech - Malaysian Manufacturing Licence Received (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/4221484/)

JT. Does this mean you back in?

[silu]

I'm still expecting and hoping that despite the mezzanine debt that a small portion of the funds will be raised by the company from existing shareholders at an attractive price.

[BlackPeter]

I'm still expecting and hoping that despite the mezzanine debt that a small portion of the funds will be raised by the company from existing shareholders at an attractive price.

Pretty sure they will.

Though actually - there might be an opportunity to raise this in the coming AGM - just to make sure they consider this. Noticed that resolution 11 (to raise $30m to have funds to start site preparations) just talks about a fund raising from "sophisticated" investors.

[JBmurc]

Will certainly be buying back into ATC when funds become available from NKP / IRC getting to fair values ..

Great long-term BUY here

[kiwitrev]

Will certainly be buying back into ATC when funds become available from NKP / IRC getting to fair values ..

Great long-term BUY here

Latest news on HPA demand.
http://media.abnnewswire.net/media/en/docs/93437-ATC_Report.pdf

[Joshuatree]

HPA joins lithium, cobalt, nickel and copper as a recognised key input to lithium-ion batteries

Thanks Trev. Im not trading or Investing in ATC atp and have no explanation for that. Those 5 key battery ingredients give one a lot of shares to look at and will make a lot of dough if the right stocks are picked.ATC has gotta be in the mix, timing it is the thing. I read about EV's everywhere including commercial EV planes, its happening and thats great for we only have one green world.

[BlackPeter]

Something going on? Huge overhang on the buyers side and price slowly creeping upwards. Finance announcement imminent?

[silu]

The Mezzanine Debt Deal might take another 6 months to finalize so by then I expect main construction work to start. I still expect the company to do a small CR before then to start clearing the site in preparation.

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/altech-locks-in-extra-80m-to-fund-malaysian-high-purity-alumina-project/
Altech Chemicals has inked a non-binding deal for $US60 million ($80.4 million) in new financing to build its high purity alumina (HPA) plant in Malaysia.

The “stream finance facility” is being provided by a US-based global investment firm with $US4.5 billion under management, the company (ASX:ATC) told investors this morning.

A stream finance facility provides a cash advance in exchange for a percentage of future gross sales.

Altech’s share price advanced 6.1 per cent to 17.5c on Friday morning on the back of the news.

Earlier this year Altech agreed on a $US190 million loan from German government-owned KfW IPEX-Bank to build the HPA plant in Johor, Malaysia — but the release of the funds depends on securing the rest of the costs.

Altech is also considering a $US90 million mezzanine loan from a global investment bank.

The company told investors the new US$60 million stream finance facility will need to be “acceptable” to KfW IPEX-Bank and any mezzanine debt provider.

Altech Chemicals (ASX:ATC) shares advanced over 6 per cent on Friday morning.
Altech Chemicals (ASX:ATC) shares advanced over 6 per cent on Friday morning.
Misunderstood market

HPA is not a widely understood commodity and there are currently only about four ASX-listed players.

HPA is a high-value material needed for lithium ion battery components and synthetic sapphire used in LED lights, semiconductor wafers and scratch-resistant smartphone glass.

High purity alumina is used in the separator of a battery to make the chemistry more stable.
One of the most highly valued substances among ASX investors… High Purity Alumina. Pic: Getty
It is currently a small global market of about 25,000 tonnes annually.

But that is tipped to grow to around 48,000 tonnes by 2025 and 86,000 tonnes by 2030.

Altech is the most advanced player after earlier this month received the manufacturing licence it needs for its 4500-tonne-per-annum HPA plant.

[kiwitrev]

Petra Capital Valuation 18/6
https://www.altechchemicals.com/sites/altechchemicals.com/files/news/Doc%20ATC%20Funding%20Gap%20Closes%20with%20Stream ing%20Finance%20Facility.pdf

[Joshuatree]

Still what, 5 years before ATC is really making profits, thats so far away.

[kiwitrev]

Still what, 5 years before ATC is really making profits, thats so far away.

But gives traders heaps of opportunity with a pot of gold at end of the rainbow

[silu]

Still what, 5 years before ATC is really making profits, thats so far away.

If we believe HDA forecast figures we would need several plants to fulfill that need. Some banks and financiers obviously trust those figures so they are willing to provide attractive term sheets to first movers.

[Joshuatree]

Scroll down to chart, a few years orphaned and going nowhere maybe, until production.
url (https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjLrNKmxd7bAhXR7WEKHbAhCnMQjRx6BAgBEAU&url=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.goldseek.com%2FPeterSpina%2F 1500580800.php&psig=AOvVaw1H2Hrurt6cvwhIx7UTn7x-&ust=1529456951265096)

[JBmurc]

Still what, 5 years before ATC is really making profits, thats so far away.

That's why I sold awhile ago as I wanted funds in my short term plays >> with the plan to put some of the profits into ATC shares for a LONG term HOLD will certainly increase in value as the time goes by ..and could well be takenover at any stage ..

[silu]

To those interested their latest presentation to RRS:

https://youtu.be/JT-LSmE2bDo

[silu]

Stand By. Trading Halt. Pretty sure it's to raise a small(ish) amount. IMO about $30mio.

[silu]

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/lithiumion-battery-play-altech-chemicals-seeks-20m-equity-injection-20180704-h129li

Stockbroker Petra Capital has launched a $20 million equity raising for ASX-listed "high purity alumina" project owner Altech Chemicals.
Petra was offering clients new shares in Altech at 16.5¢ each, which was a 13.2 per cent discount to the last close and a 16.3 per cent discount to the 10 day volume weighted average price.
Funds raised were for pre-construction site works and finalisation of plant engineering, according to terms sent to fund managers.
Petra was calling for bids into the placement by 2pm on Friday.

The placement was part of a targeted $20 million raising, which also includes a $3 million share purchase plan at the same price.

[bull....]

hi silu i own this company have a small parcel held for about 5mths been waiting for cash issue to get more planning to hold for a long time looks like a good project

[silu]

Has anyone read through Collerina Cobalt's (CLL) announcement from yesterday? https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180709/pdf/43wdj17bj5f82z.pdf

Apparently they can make 4N HPA 99.99% purity from available industrial products but compared to ATC they are still way behind. The plan to produce 1kg of it by September for marketing samples and a modified PFS by October.

Anyone worried? I trust the Germans would have done extensive due diligence on alternate productions of HPA too and decided that being first counts for more than being best.

In the meantime ATC is in the early stages of construction.

[BlackPeter]

Has anyone read through Collerina Cobalt's (CLL) announcement from yesterday? https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180709/pdf/43wdj17bj5f82z.pdf

Apparently they can make 4N HPA 99.99% purity from available industrial products but compared to ATC they are still way behind. The plan to produce 1kg of it by September for marketing samples and a modified PFS by October.

Anyone worried? I trust the Germans would have done extensive due diligence on alternate productions of HPA too and decided that being first counts for more than being best.

In the meantime ATC is in the early stages of construction.

Not quite clear to me what their benchmark is (better than what?) - probably their first quite inefficient and expensive process.

Nothing in this announcement I could see which compares to ATC's (patented) process - and their reference to the benefit of not mining ... mining is for ATC not a risk, but an asset. Remember - they own a fully licenced open pit mine with several hundred years worth of feedstock which they just need to pick up.

On what basis do you think CLL might be "best"? They are ways behind ATC and I don't see any data stating that their process might be better or cheaper than the ATC process. As well - even if they would compare what they think about their process with the ATC process, they clearly would not know yet how well their process works, given that they have not even produced their first kg. But still good to see some others working in this area, ATC alone could never supply 100% of the forecasted HPA demand ...

[silu]

Yes my comment about "being best" was not in direct correlation to CLL but more a general comment that even if CLL's process were better it might not be preferred by financiers and the market. Way too many questions surround Collerina imo. Didn't even notice that their CR was at a 26.6% discount. DAMN!


ATC on the other hand has ticked off so many boxes already and have lined up all their little ducks that I will try go get as many shares as I can afford in the SPP

[silu]

Article of interest:
https://stockhead.com.au/columnists/barry-fitzgerald-altech-on-track-to-be-the-first-hpa-producer-of-asx-quartet/
Iggy Tan’s Altech Chemicals is off and running to become the first producer of high purity alumina (HPA) among the ASX-listed quartet which have hitched their future to the boom material.

Drawing on last month’s $20 million equity raising, Altech (ASX:ATC) has begun early construction works at its HPA plant site in Johor, Malaysia, which will draw its feedstock from an aluminium-bearing kaolin mine to be developed in Western Australia.

The start to early construction works comes ahead of the financing package for Altech’s HPA plans being bedded down. But that’s exactly the point.

“With these sort of projects it’s all about momentum,” Tan told this column. “It’s all about getting up and getting going.

“We want to maintain project momentum and that’s the reason we raised the equity last month, to get early construction started.”

Tan knows all about the importance of project momentum.

It was his push and shove that established Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY) as a leading lithium well before the lithium-ion battery boom gripped the market.

Galaxy is now a $1.2 billion company.

But when Tan left the company in 2013 the boom had yet to arrive and things got a bit tough, prompting Tan’s exit and his arrival at Altech a year later in another trail-blazing role, this time in the HPA space.

Altech Chemicals shares (ASX:ATC) over the past year
Altech Chemicals shares (ASX:ATC) over the past year
Financing for Altech’s plan to become a 4,500 tonnes per annum HPA producer is coming together and has export credit finance from Germany’s KfW IPEX-Bank at its core. It’s said to be the best debt in the world.

But facing six months or so for all of the financing plans to fall in to place, Tan decided to get moving now with the early construction works.

His momentum focus comes at an interesting time for the ASX-listed HPA stocks in general. Other key HPA stocks are Collerina (ASX:CLL), Hill End (ASX:HEG) and FYI Resources (ASX:FYI).

>> Read Stockhead’s quick guide to High Purity Alumina

Because HPA is enjoying high demand growth as a thermal separator to prevent fires inside lithium-ion batteries, it is seen by many as purely a battery material.

That was a positive until the heat came out of the lithium stocks earlier this year on forecasts that supply would soon swamp demand. It has become a negative by association for HPA ever since, in the minds of investors anyway.

The main uses of HPA

The reality is that the biggest use of HPA remains in LED lights and in the production of scratch-resistant glass.

More importantly, unlike lithium, HPA is forecast to be in short supply for years to come.

HPA is not a big-tonnage market, with global demand of about 30,000 tonnes in 2017. But industry forecasters predict double-digit compound growth to as much as 122,000tpa by 2025.

That means multiple HPA plants like Altech’s Johor baby will be needed.

The boom outlook is being reflected in prices for 99.99 per cent HPA product. While most of the HPA project aspirants assume long-term prices of less than $US30/kg for their projects, recent pricing in Japan is $US40/kg.

HPA pricing

Not unlike the lithium market, pricing for HPA is opaque. But unlike the lithium market, prices have remained strong.

“Our view is that we are going to see very strong demand in coming years,” Tan said. “The market is growing by 20 times the size of our plant so there is no fight for market share.”

He might as well have added that it’s a different outlook for the lithium producers where the supply window of opportunity is fast closing.

Altech plugged in a long-term price of $US26.90/kg for HPA in its investment study in to its integrated project.

The project is the first of the “disruptive’’ projects being brought forward in that its feedstock is kaolin based compared with the world’s existing production which starts out with finished aluminium metal.

It means potentially much lower operating costs.

Altech’s investment study forecast production costs of $US9.90/kg, indicating a gross margin of 63 per cent on the long-term price estimate, and an annual earnings capability of $US76 million.

Altech last traded at 16.5c for a market cap of $87 million.

[silu]

https://twitter.com/AusHCMalaysia/status/1027086686168051712

[silu]

Altech Chemicals Johor Opening Ceremony

https://youtu.be/LtaY_Xo1w_4

[Carpenterjoe]

Altech Chemicals Johor Opening Ceremony

https://youtu.be/LtaY_Xo1w_4

Once they confirm German funding ill chuck a few more pennies in. At the moment I am nervous the funding will full over or their production technology/plant set up might have difficulties. but with you on GNX.

[BlackPeter]

Once they confirm German funding ill chuck a few more pennies in. At the moment I am nervous the funding will full over or their production technology/plant set up might have difficulties. but with you on GNX.

What do you mean with "once they confirm German funding"?

German funding (KfW) has been confirmed already in December last year. The project is rolling. What they still working on is to tie up the "funding gap" and it sounds like they have more financiers interested in filing that than they need.

https://www.altechchemicals.com/sites/altechchemicals.com/files/news/Doc%20ATC%20Funding%20Gap%20Closes%20with%20Stream ing%20Finance%20Facility.pdf

Great position to be in to negotiate optimal conditions for share holders.

So - where are we?
- they do have a guaranteed takeoff for their product (Toshiba for 10 years)
- they do have the German KfW loan facility with outstanding conditions
- they do have a patented and scrutinized process and more feed material than they can use up in my, my childrens and my grandchildrens lifetime ...
- they do have a German contractor committed to do the work with expertise in this area, guaranteeing the process parameters and the output
AND with skin in the game (they are shareholder as well);
- They have all the necessary mining and manufacturing licenses, they have the place and they have a supportive environment
(members of the Royal family in Malaysia are shareholders as well)
- It looks quite likely that they will get quite friendly conditions re tax treatment (but I think the final confirmation on that is still out).

Where do you see the biggest remaining risks?

[Carpenterjoe]

Agree with the above,

but

They are still awaiting financial close which sounds non binding to me. All the other funding is non binding which has it's own risk. They had to capital raise to begin works and it is possible another raise could be required if construction out paces awaiting financial close.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180709/pdf/43wd5t48xsyyb6.pdf

If the plant does not work shareholders are left with millions in debt and no income. Hpa producer Orbite had this happen to them.

Happy to accumulate/trade with loose change in this one and learn alot about HPA product.

[silu]

Once they confirm German funding ill chuck a few more pennies in. At the moment I am nervous the funding will full over or their production technology/plant set up might have difficulties. but with you on GNX.

The funding in my view has been confirmed but obviously there are stipulations to on what the loan can be used for hence the CR to clear the site and ongoing costs until construction can start. Given that SMS, KfW, Altech, Malaysian royalty, Australian High Commissioner etc were there at the Opening Ceremony I'd assume all from now is mostly matter of fact. Sure hiccups can happen but I couldn't foresee any myself at the moment. ATC management has the great opportunity to actually shop around for the best terms for its Mezzanine Loan and Stream Finance as we have the Germans and Malaysian Royal Family on board.

Can you elaborate what you mean with "but with you on GNX"?

[silu]

HEG another potential HPA player is up nearly 40% today on no news?

[Paddie]

Research report out valuing HEG at 38c

http://www.resourcesrisingstars.com...emand-high-purity-alumina-says-senior-analyst

http://www.resourcesrisingstars.com...endent Investment Research - HEG July '18.pdf

[silu]

Research report out valuing HEG at 38c

http://www.resourcesrisingstars.com...emand-high-purity-alumina-says-senior-analyst

http://www.resourcesrisingstars.com...endent Investment Research - HEG July '18.pdf

Thanks. If only all my investments would trade closer to what research reports say :)

[silu]

So here I was putting some money into my broker account to buy more ATC below 16c and now they have gone into a TH with regards to proposed funding counterparties. Well at least by Friday we know what a big piece of the puzzle will look like.

[BlackPeter]

So here I was putting some money into my broker account to buy more ATC below 16c and now they have gone into a TH with regards to proposed funding counterparties. Well at least by Friday we know what a big piece of the puzzle will look like.

Yep, interesting - isn't it? This might well be the last piece of the financial puzzle. Quietly optimistic ...

[silu]

Battery makers are planning to use a lot more HPA to stop cars catching fire
https://stockhead.com.au/resources/battery-makers-are-planning-to-use-a-lot-more-hpa-to-stop-cars-catching-fire/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Stockhead%20Morning%20Newsletter%20Th u%20Sep%2027%202018&utm_content=Stockhead%20Morning%20Newsletter%20Thu %20Sep%2027%202018+CID_f667613db32bde9de555fc50a55 7e3c9&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=Battery%20makers%20are%20planning%20to%20 use%20a%20lot%20more%20HPA%20to%20stop%20cars%20ca tching%20fire

[silu]

New video up:
Altech Chemicals - Meeting a sapphire future
https://youtu.be/dfjvTTGKwdU

[Joshuatree]

Top five promising high purity alumina producers in the world - AlCircle (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=12&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwijqumow-ndAhVEE4gKHVgHCbIQFjALegQIChAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.alcircle.com%2Fnews%2Falumin a%2Fdetail%2F27272%2Ftop-five-promising-high-purity-alumina-producers-in-the-world&usg=AOvVaw2GE5TdiVmZT9pyCJ1j7-cN)

[silu]

JT that article was from March 2017 so much has changed since then.

Barry FitzGerald: why it’s time to revisit these High Purity Alumina stocks
https://stockhead.com.au/columnists/barry-fitzgerald-why-its-time-to-revisit-these-high-purity-alumina-stocks/

HPA pricing used by ATC financial modeling US$27/kg vs current trade price of US$40/kg which could earn ATC's proposed 4500tpa plant US$133m/year. Reminder ATC's MC is a mere A$83m at the moment.

[JBmurc]

JT that article was from March 2017 so much has changed since then.

Barry FitzGerald: why it’s time to revisit these High Purity Alumina stocks
https://stockhead.com.au/columnists/barry-fitzgerald-why-its-time-to-revisit-these-high-purity-alumina-stocks/

HPA pricing used by ATC financial modeling US$27/kg vs current trade price of US$40/kg which could earn ATC's proposed 4500tpa plant US$133m/year. Reminder ATC's MC is a mere A$83m at the moment.

Yes great buying ... like so many resource sector companies of late ....just need my biggest holding IRC / NKP to crack on and I'll get me 100k AUD worth of ATC

[silu]

Yes great buying ... like so many resource sector companies of late ....just need my biggest holding IRC / NKP to crack on and I'll get me 100k AUD worth of ATC

At the beginning of the year I sat down and wanted to buy some shares that I believe will be my retirement fund with a 10-20 year horizon. ATC is definitely one of them - the first plant is only the start in my view. I can see it happen that over the next 2-3 years other additional plant sites will be identified.

[Carpenterjoe]

Scary,

limited funds. limited approval, works have started.


Hopefully just some small kinks an iron will easily fix.

[BlackPeter]

Scary,

limited funds. limited approval, works have started.


Hopefully just some small kinks an iron will easily fix.

Care to expand?

Not sure I know about any organisation with access to unlimited funds ... and what exactly is limited about their approvals?

But sure - there is risk ... as in any other business venture.

The industry might find a cheaper replacement for HPA ...
The process might (despite lots of due diligence) not work as well as envisaged on a grand scale
The sky might fall in and nobody needs LED's, smartphone screens or high capacity batteries anymore

But than - there are unlimited opportunities as well :): a huge increase of the market for HPA separators in vehicle batteries due to a rapidly increasing electric vehicle mrket, new application for high capacity batteries like e.g. a power bank for electric networks; new generation of smartphones needing more unscratchable glass screens, new applications for saphisglass, LED lighting still only in the beginnings of its reign, ...;

Anything in particular you would want to highlight?

[BlackPeter]

patent for ATC's HPA production process granted:

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20181016/pdf/43z91pdhd0qh43.pdf

It took them 4 years, but well worthwhile. This will make life for copycats a bit more difficult and expensive ...

Well done, Iggy & team!

[Carpenterjoe]

Care to expand?

Not sure I know about any organisation with access to unlimited funds ... and what exactly is limited about their approvals?

But sure - there is risk ... as in any other business venture.

The industry might find a cheaper replacement for HPA ...
The process might (despite lots of due diligence) not work as well as envisaged on a grand scale
The sky might fall in and nobody needs LED's, smartphone screens or high capacity batteries anymore

But than - there are unlimited opportunities as well :): a huge increase of the market for HPA separators in vehicle batteries due to a rapidly increasing electric vehicle mrket, new application for high capacity batteries like e.g. a power bank for electric networks; new generation of smartphones needing more unscratchable glass screens, new applications for saphisglass, LED lighting still only in the beginnings of its reign, ...;

Anything in particular you would want to highlight?

Pretty sure they haven't gained building consent from local authorities.

Stage targets and amounts seem to be changing.

I feel i have been feed information after the fact, regarding exact finance timeline.

I dont hate this investment prospect, but i will be careful digesting future information/timelines the company is going to release.

[BlackPeter]

Pretty sure they haven't gained building consent from local authorities.

Stage targets and amounts seem to be changing.

I feel i have been feed information after the fact, regarding exact finance timeline.

I dont hate this investment prospect, but i will be careful digesting future information/timelines the company is going to release.

No building consent with local authorities in Malaysia?

WOW. Clearly - you need detailled building plans (which are a requirement for a building permit and a deliverable for their contract with SMS) to do that.
As they announced in July - this is one of the things they are currently working at togehter with the site preparation

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180712/pdf/43wghfb7g0psx7.pdf

Sure - this is a process, but where exactly do you see the issues given that the building is in a designated industrial zone (with other compatible chemical industry around) and given that they have already a manufacturing licence? The authorities clearly want this to happen ...

Timelines are changing? True, they have and they might keep doing that. However - haven't yet seen a lot of non-trivial projects where this was not the case on the way from concept to finalisation ...

I do measure management not at their capability to predict the future with absolute accuracy, but at their capability to work with uncertainty and to adapt to changing circumstances.

[silu]

Pretty sure they haven't gained building consent from local authorities.

Stage targets and amounts seem to be changing.

I feel i have been feed information after the fact, regarding exact finance timeline.

I dont hate this investment prospect, but i will be careful digesting future information/timelines the company is going to release.

Did I miss an announcement about no building consent? Care to elaborate?

[kiwitrev]

HC poster reporting on presentation he attended in Brisbane. Thks Accumul8r.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-altech-hpa-market-update-lithium-ion-battery-sector.4472345/page-50?post_id=36176086

[Joshuatree]

Had a look at the HPA process chart and there are re 33 different process stages!. That looks complicated and like a lot can go wrong.All those operations have to be operating perfectly to reach the right highgrade material. Rebuttal?
Download Document 7.95MB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYD4wq4y xWZoeN6ke92GA%3D%3D) re page 22

[Carpenterjoe]

Did I miss an announcement about no building consent? Care to elaborate?

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20181010/pdf/43z3sdfwdz8n35.pdf

"allowing for the submission of site development order application to local Johor Authorities."

happy to be wrong about this, but to me it reads they have not started building yet. All they have done is basic requirements to get consent.

[Carpenterjoe]

No building consent with local authorities in Malaysia?

WOW. Clearly - you need detailled building plans (which are a requirement for a building permit and a deliverable for their contract with SMS) to do that.
As they announced in July - this is one of the things they are currently working at togehter with the site preparation

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180712/pdf/43wghfb7g0psx7.pdf

Sure - this is a process, but where exactly do you see the issues given that the building is in a designated industrial zone (with other compatible chemical industry around) and given that they have already a manufacturing licence? The authorities clearly want this to happen ...

Timelines are changing? True, they have and they might keep doing that. However - haven't yet seen a lot of non-trivial projects where this was not the case on the way from concept to finalisation ...

I do measure management not at their capability to predict the future with absolute accuracy, but at their capability to work with uncertainty and to adapt to changing circumstances.


My point is, timing is everything and i am scared that works have been charged to investors but works are a while from starting and they have no finance except from investors. we have circa 4 month wait till funds are approved. maybe another month till funds are released. i detect a time frame error

[BlackPeter]

Had a look at the HPA process chart and there are re 33 different process stages!. That looks complicated and like a lot can go wrong.All those operations have to be operating perfectly to reach the right highgrade material. Rebuttal?
Download Document 7.95MB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYD4wq4y xWZoeN6ke92GA%3D%3D) re page 22

LOL. Have another look at this chart and try to understand it. The first 6 steps of this oh-so-complicated chart are to pick up the Alumina in Meckering (which requires a digger, probably a loader, a container and a truck) and to transport the container with said truck over a sealed Australian highway to the port in Perth.

Now comes step 7 - and we are already 20% into the process ... and sure, the loader can break down or the truck can blow a tyre ... but get real - if this is a complicated process for you, than there are not too many companies you should invest into ... :p;

[BlackPeter]

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20181010/pdf/43z3sdfwdz8n35.pdf

"allowing for the submission of site development order application to local Johor Authorities."

happy to be wrong about this, but to me it reads they have not started building yet. All they have done is basic requirements to get consent.

Nobody said that they started to build. They are clearing the site and did some ground tests they need to determine the fundament and to get the building consent.


My point is, timing is everything and i am scared that works have been charged to investors but works are a while from starting and they have no finance except from investors. we have circa 4 month wait till funds are approved. maybe another month till funds are released. i detect a time frame error

Not sure I understand your position. If you are so scared I assume you are not holding. But if you are not holding, than why are you scared? Confused.

Looking at the details - they had recently a CR to fund the site clearance and preparation ... and that's what they are currently doing. What other works have they charged to investors?

[kiwitrev]

Nobody said that they started to build. They are clearing the site and did some ground tests they need to determine the fundament and to get the building consent.



Not sure I understand your position. If you are so scared I assume you are not holding. But if you are not holding, than why are you scared? Confused.

Looking at the details - they had recently a CR to fund the site clearance and preparation ... and that's what they are currently doing. What other works have they charged to investors?

Shane Volk stated on Wednesday that piling has commenced. Would that be a component required in any building consent?

[BlackPeter]

Shane Volk stated on Wednesday that piling has commenced. Would that be a component required in any building consent?

Good point. I don't think they would need to do that already now to get a consent - but obviously it is a requirement to build. Who knows, maybe building started already and they just didn't tell us?

Can't wait for the next announcement ...

[Joshuatree]

LOL. Have another look at this chart and try to understand it. The first 6 steps of this oh-so-complicated chart are to pick up the Alumina in Meckering (which requires a digger, probably a loader, a container and a truck) and to transport the container with said truck over a sealed Australian highway to the port in Perth.

Now comes step 7 - and we are already 20% into the process ... and sure, the loader can break down or the truck can blow a tyre ... but get real - if this is a complicated process for you, than there are not too many companies you should invest into ... :p;

You have a count, i excluded the mining and loading parts as wells the water adding tanks and added only one of the acid tanks, got 33 processes. Only one has to underperform to affect the whole quality and through put.

[Joshuatree]

Scroll down to chart, a few years orphaned and going nowhere maybe, until production.
url (https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjLrNKmxd7bAhXR7WEKHbAhCnMQjRx6BAgBEAU&url=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.goldseek.com%2FPeterSpina%2F 1500580800.php&psig=AOvVaw1H2Hrurt6cvwhIx7UTn7x-&ust=1529456951265096)

I fluked a top and sold around 23.5c last dec. I posted this orphan chart showing a co relation with stages of development. Accurate enough for me. havnt bought back in atp.

[BlackPeter]

You have a count, i excluded the mining and loading parts as wells the water adding tanks and added only one of the acid tanks, got 33 processes. Only one has to underperform to affect the whole quality and through put.

Still less complicated than the processes currently used to produce the 4N-HPA the industry requires. But absolutely - there is risk as in any other activity, even staying in bed :).

That's what the markets are all about. If the markets overrate the risks you can buy bargains ;) ... and we only know with the benefit of hindsight whether the risks have been under- or overrated;

BTW - congratulations to selling into end of last years funding announcement peak. I wouldn't call this investing, but it certainly was great timing!

[Joshuatree]

I did fluke it near /at a top no skill there. Am keeping a watch on this, good luck in the meantime.

[BlackPeter]

Came yesterday evening across a webinar which Iggy gave for the German market (Saturday 10 am in Germany, 9 pm in NZ) - and linked myself in.

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/10933692-exklusives-webinar-altech-chemicals-ceo-iggy-tan-stellt-fragen-investoren

I guess the company presentation was quite standard (though a bit more in depth than what I've seen so far in the publications) - though probably just due to his comments and explanations including a quite detailed walk through the process steps.

Quite interesting - but honestly - I have heard from him nothing outrageously complicated when he went through the process. Mainly cleaning of input material (first filtering), than putting the aluminium into solution, removal of the residuals and afterwards regeneration of the solvent. Didn't sounded like rocketscience to me ...

Admittedly - my background is electrical (and not chemical) engineering, but I have seen factories operating with similar materials and temperatures. No red light started flashing in my head when I listened to his explanations ;);

Other points of interest:

There was some question re the recently published patent (actually asked by myself ...) and he explained that there are still a number of other patents pending, most of them "ordinary" patents (i.e. not innovation). He said as well that there are some patents pending abroad (e.g. Malaysia), but that the national patent would be already protection for ATC's IP. 

There have been (not surprisingly) questions related to future capital rises. He said that the final capital need is not yet clear (depending on the final finance package), but yes, there will be further capital rises. He indicated that in projects like that typically 30 to 40% of the total are financed with equity. Do your sums ...

Responding to another question he stated that all money spent now for site preparation are part of the $280m funding budget (i.e. not additional cost).

Timeschedule:
They are currently finalising the application for a building permit (should be done in the next 3 weeks or so) and he said that "hopefully in November there will be much more activity on the site" (whatever this means).

His indication for first production: early 2021;

Commenting on the share price he said that the ATC share price is sort of linked to the Lithium shares, which lost as well roughly 40% over this year. Nothing the company can do about that - the market giveth and taketh (my words ...).

Overall - good presentation. If you have an opportunity to join one of his investor seminars - I do recommend to take it. Ah yes ... and he will be November 9th in Munich - nice city, great beer and I am sure another interesting presentation - though probably appalling weather - but hey, you can't have everything ...!

[silu]

Thanks for sharing.

[Carpenterjoe]

Nobody said that they started to build. They are clearing the site and did some ground tests they need to determine the fundament and to get the building consent.



Not sure I understand your position. If you are so scared I assume you are not holding. But if you are not holding, than why are you scared? Confused.

Looking at the details - they had recently a CR to fund the site clearance and preparation ... and that's what they are currently doing. What other works have they charged to investors?

Sorry about the delay BP.

Busy building houses.

Small holding, very interested, but until they secure their finance I have no interest in giving more funds to a business awaiting "financial close". Far to many risks.

I Believe the first CR included substantial Foundation works inc piling, Tanks, Maintenance workshop, a lot more than Site Clarence and prep. In NSW consent is needed to undertake these works. And usually foundation works are never fixed price.

I must have mis understood the golden shovels and the website when it announced "works begin". more like "works await consent"

Can someone clarify the fixed price for this project and how the 30-40% shareholder fits the funding process. USD currency effects. Currently completely confused how much shareholder funding is needed? and why it is needed.

I do not understand how Altech can have any legal/financial recourse if this plant does not work to optimal levels, so the "turn key" sales pitch really annoys me. monies get paid during the process, not on turning a key.

Sorry to be the glass half full man.

[BlackPeter]

Sorry about the delay BP.

Busy building houses.

Small holding, very interested, but until they secure their finance I have no interest in giving more funds to a business awaiting "financial close". Far to many risks.

I Believe the first CR included substantial Foundation works inc piling, Tanks, Maintenance workshop, a lot more than Site Clarence and prep. In NSW consent is needed to undertake these works. And usually foundation works are never fixed price.

I must have mis understood the golden shovels and the website when it announced "works begin". more like "works await consent"

Can someone clarify the fixed price for this project and how the 30-40% shareholder fits the funding process. USD currency effects. Currently completely confused how much shareholder funding is needed? and why it is needed.

I do not understand how Altech can have any legal/financial recourse if this plant does not work to optimal levels, so the "turn key" sales pitch really annoys me. monies get paid during the process, not on turning a key.

Sorry to be the glass half full man.

No need to appologize for having second thoughts - and clearly, this is - until the factory is up, running and proven - a high risk investment.

I hold a medium sized package which is in my books less than 5% of my portfolio.

So - why am I reasonable optimistic?

The German contractor (SMS) does have previous experience with the process, and they guaranteed in the contract with ATC as well the production parameters ... I suppose this is the reason the business case is that conservative (to make it not too hard on SMS to comply).

SMS is a cornerstone shareholder in ATC (https://thewest.com.au/business/public-companies/german-engineering-goliath-ups-stake-in-altech-to-195m-ng-b88655925z) and indicated they are prepared to put more money into it. Would you do that as contractor if you don't believe in the outcome?

I guess the discussions about when building preparations stop and when building begins is more a semantic one. I assume however that you have with your background a better grasp of the lingo - if I expressed myself not to Australian builder standards, than I ask for forgiveness. We do know that they cleared the section, did the tests and I thought hearing Iggy saying that piling started. Pretty sure that they work within their consent ... the rules in Malaysia might be different than in Australia.

Iggy said that any work undertaken now is part of the budgeted sum. He made however some allowance for changes to price of building materials (he mentioned steel price) - and yes, I guess if the USD goes up (pretty sure the contract is in USD), than it will be dearer. On the other hand - pretty sure that HPA is charged in USD as well. So I guess we do have some sort of hedge here ...

Not sure about the usefulness of guarantees if the parties see themselves in court and SMS would play hardball ... however - do you really believe a German industry giant like SMS would risk their brand (and the invested capital) without doing anything they can to make this happen? I do trust in German engineering :) and I think they are motivated enough;

Iggy was himself not yet sure about the funding ... i.e. all we could do is making uneducated guesses. I didn't keep a tally so far of the CR's (and am too lazy to do the numbers now), but if we take the marketcap as a representation of shareholders input and assume the project and maintenance is (roughly) USD 300m, the market cap at current is roughly $68m AUD - say $50m USD, than it would be fair to assume that they need to raise the same order of magnitude of money they did raise so far until the project is complete.

And yes - sh*t happens.

I take it if the HPA price stays where it is (or goes higher), than there shouldn't be any issues, but if the industry finds out they don't need HPA anymore (or it is cheap like chips due to oversupply), than the deal might look less attractive.

Not too worried about building consents and SMS not being able to deliver to spec.

[Carpenterjoe]

No need to appologize for having second thoughts - and clearly, this is - until the factory is up, running and proven - a high risk investment.

I hold a medium sized package which is in my books less than 5% of my portfolio.

So - why am I reasonable optimistic?

The German contractor (SMS) does have previous experience with the process, and they guaranteed in the contract with ATC as well the production parameters ... I suppose this is the reason the business case is that conservative (to make it not too hard on SMS to comply).

SMS is a cornerstone shareholder in ATC (https://thewest.com.au/business/public-companies/german-engineering-goliath-ups-stake-in-altech-to-195m-ng-b88655925z) and indicated they are prepared to put more money into it. Would you do that as contractor if you don't believe in the outcome?

I guess the discussions about when building preparations stop and when building begins is more a semantic one. I assume however that you have with your background a better grasp of the lingo - if I expressed myself not to Australian builder standards, than I ask for forgiveness. We do know that they cleared the section, did the tests and I thought hearing Iggy saying that piling started. Pretty sure that they work within their consent ... the rules in Malaysia might be different than in Australia.

Iggy said that any work undertaken now is part of the budgeted sum. He made however some allowance for changes to price of building materials (he mentioned steel price) - and yes, I guess if the USD goes up (pretty sure the contract is in USD), than it will be dearer. On the other hand - pretty sure that HPA is charged in USD as well. So I guess we do have some sort of hedge here ...

Not sure about the usefulness of guarantees if the parties see themselves in court and SMS would play hardball ... however - do you really believe a German industry giant like SMS would risk their brand (and the invested capital) without doing anything they can to make this happen? I do trust in German engineering :) and I think they are motivated enough;

Iggy was himself not yet sure about the funding ... i.e. all we could do is making uneducated guesses. I didn't keep a tally so far of the CR's (and am too lazy to do the numbers now), but if we take the marketcap as a representation of shareholders input and assume the project and maintenance is (roughly) USD 300m, the market cap at current is roughly $68m AUD - say $50m USD, than it would be fair to assume that they need to raise the same order of magnitude of money they did raise so far until the project is complete.

And yes - sh*t happens.

I take it if the HPA price stays where it is (or goes higher), than there shouldn't be any issues, but if the industry finds out they don't need HPA anymore (or it is cheap like chips due to oversupply), than the deal might look less attractive.

Not too worried about building consents and SMS not being able to deliver to spec.

Thanks BP, I appreciate a detailed response . Give me a little time to think about your points.

I need to spend time projecting

MC
All the future capital raising
Project value
possible debt structure
and apply it to currency rates.

At the moment my gut tells me, current capital raising are funding the companies going concern. This makes me very nervous.

[Carpenterjoe]

No need to appologize for having second thoughts - and clearly, this is - until the factory is up, running and proven - a high risk investment.

I hold a medium sized package which is in my books less than 5% of my portfolio.

So - why am I reasonable optimistic?

The German contractor (SMS) does have previous experience with the process, and they guaranteed in the contract with ATC as well the production parameters ... I suppose this is the reason the business case is that conservative (to make it not too hard on SMS to comply).

SMS is a cornerstone shareholder in ATC (https://thewest.com.au/business/public-companies/german-engineering-goliath-ups-stake-in-altech-to-195m-ng-b88655925z) and indicated they are prepared to put more money into it. Would you do that as contractor if you don't believe in the outcome?

I guess the discussions about when building preparations stop and when building begins is more a semantic one. I assume however that you have with your background a better grasp of the lingo - if I expressed myself not to Australian builder standards, than I ask for forgiveness. We do know that they cleared the section, did the tests and I thought hearing Iggy saying that piling started. Pretty sure that they work within their consent ... the rules in Malaysia might be different than in Australia.

Iggy said that any work undertaken now is part of the budgeted sum. He made however some allowance for changes to price of building materials (he mentioned steel price) - and yes, I guess if the USD goes up (pretty sure the contract is in USD), than it will be dearer. On the other hand - pretty sure that HPA is charged in USD as well. So I guess we do have some sort of hedge here ...

Not sure about the usefulness of guarantees if the parties see themselves in court and SMS would play hardball ... however - do you really believe a German industry giant like SMS would risk their brand (and the invested capital) without doing anything they can to make this happen? I do trust in German engineering :) and I think they are motivated enough;

Iggy was himself not yet sure about the funding ... i.e. all we could do is making uneducated guesses. I didn't keep a tally so far of the CR's (and am too lazy to do the numbers now), but if we take the marketcap as a representation of shareholders input and assume the project and maintenance is (roughly) USD 300m, the market cap at current is roughly $68m AUD - say $50m USD, than it would be fair to assume that they need to raise the same order of magnitude of money they did raise so far until the project is complete.

And yes - sh*t happens.

I take it if the HPA price stays where it is (or goes higher), than there shouldn't be any issues, but if the industry finds out they don't need HPA anymore (or it is cheap like chips due to oversupply), than the deal might look less attractive.

Not too worried about building consents and SMS not being able to deliver to spec.


Soooooo still trying to figure this one out, so appreciate any clarification,

SMS group only becomes a cornerstone shareholder once finance is approved. Once finance is approved SMS takes a 15 million dollar holding at a much diluted price (maybe 2cents). This is done after Altech have spent shareholder funds to progress the site and paid SMS from shareholder funds? wtf? Very smart from SMS. (So silly Iggy).

I feel SMS group have factored this into their construction costs and is likely to get a free holding from the situation. So SMS have best intentions, but at the end of the day they have zero risk)

Thinking construction will not start this year.

I think the latest market release should read, once our development order is approved then stage one can commence. Again read between the lines to time your investment.

Thinking share price will continue to get slammed while the company continues the blurry worded jargon.

Sorry out of time to share more thoughts.

[BlackPeter]

Soooooo still trying to figure this one out, so appreciate any clarification,

SMS group only becomes a cornerstone shareholder once finance is approved. Once finance is approved SMS takes a 15 million dollar holding at a much diluted price (maybe 2cents). This is done after Altech have spent shareholder funds to progress the site and paid SMS from shareholder funds? wtf? Very smart from SMS. (So silly Iggy).

I feel SMS group have factored this into their construction costs and is likely to get a free holding from the situation. So SMS have best intentions, but at the end of the day they have zero risk)

Thinking construction will not start this year.

I think the latest market release should read, once our development order is approved then stage one can commence. Again read between the lines to time your investment.

Thinking share price will continue to get slammed while the company continues the blurry worded jargon.

Sorry out of time to share more thoughts.

Nice story. Only issue is - SMS group is currently already the largest shareholder! They do hold nearly 39 million shares (close to 7%).

https://www.altechchemicals.com/top-20-shareholders

No matter what games will be played with the shareprice - they certainly want the project to succeed. And yes - they committed to put another $15 million or so in the pot when finance is approved.

As well - I don't think that any committed stakeholder will be interested to see the SP drop close to or below NTA - which is around 6 cents per share. This would be a takeover target too juicy for any of the competitors chasing ATC to ignore. Just imagine - if your 2 cent would be anywhere close to reality than they could buy the company, the process (including IP), the resources, all consents and a well planned and consented factory at 1/3rd of bookvalue. Yeah - right.

[Carpenterjoe]

Nice story. Only issue is - SMS group is currently already the largest shareholder! They do hold nearly 39 million shares (close to 7%).

https://www.altechchemicals.com/top-20-shareholders

No matter what games will be played with the shareprice - they certainly want the project to succeed. And yes - they committed to put another $15 million or so in the pot when finance is approved.

As well - I don't think that any committed stakeholder will be interested to see the SP drop close to or below NTA - which is around 6 cents per share. This would be a takeover target too juicy for any of the competitors chasing ATC to ignore. Just imagine - if your 2 cent would be anywhere close to reality than they could buy the company, the process (including IP), the resources, all consents and a well planned and consented factory at 1/3rd of bookvalue. Yeah - right.

Thanks Bp,

2 cents was a throw away comment. I havnt yet worked out how future capital raisings and delays could effect current share price.

Again, i am looking to time my buy in. But i think the SP has a long way down to go.

My first purchase at 17 cents is looking pretty grim. Mabye in 4 years it will be 170 cents.👍

[BlackPeter]

Thanks Bp,

2 cents was a throw away comment. I havnt yet worked out how future capital raisings and delays could effect current share price.

Again, i am looking to time my buy in. But i think the SP has a long way down to go.

My first purchase at 17 cents is looking pretty grim. Mabye in 4 years it will be 170 cents.��

OK - I do see your problem. My average buy in price is around 11 cents ... makes me a bit more relaxed ;);

Not sure about 170 cents in 4 years (unless HPA stays the only realistic separator for high capacity lithium batteries, which is possible). I think however that something between 40 to 80 cents would be more realistic.

And yes - it might go lower before that - but depends on the finance story. Might come as a Christmas present (didn't they talk about end of November)? After finance is settled people will wonder why they didn't buy more shares at the current sale prices.

[kiwitrev]

Chairmans letter to SH.
https://www.altechchemicals.com/sites/altechchemicals.com/files/asx-announcements/6908600.pdf

[Joshuatree]

Seem to remember but happy to be corrected the IRR re 22%. If so ,just not enough to justify the risks for me.

[kiwitrev]

Seem to remember but happy to be corrected the IRR re 22%. If so ,just not enough to justify the risks for me.

For sure it's a longer term play-for me it's a legacy investment.

[silu]

For sure it's a longer term play-for me it's a legacy investment.

Same. I'm looking 10-20 years here getting me towards my retirement.

Re Chairman's letter. Usually I think explaining is losing but the market seems to like it.

[Carpenterjoe]

Shoot, what is going on? funding issues or the opposite? maybe being a bit more sensible regarding the timing of capital. thoughts everyone? i suppose this is expected when a company goes ahead to maintain momentum.

[BlackPeter]

Shoot, what is going on? funding issues or the opposite? maybe being a bit more sensible regarding the timing of capital. thoughts everyone? i suppose this is expected when a company goes ahead to maintain momentum.

Hard to say - the proposed $30m placement might have been just part of the negotitation tactics with the stream and mezz finance partners to demonstrate that ATC have alternatives in raising the capital if they don't like the conditions offered by the partners.

Just sort of misfired ... I think first time I have seen them screwing up ...

Anyway - does not change the fundamentals, but might have improved the hand of the finance partners.

[Carpenterjoe]

Considering today's announcement, I suspect no substantial works will be done this side of Christmas, could be a Feb start. I hate having to read between the lines of their announcements.

So maybe they will complete stage one within the next 5 months. I suspect this could be a factor why the last CR was put on hold.

We will need to keep an eye on this loan commitment fee and how it effects cash flow. First time I have heard of a loan commitment fee.

I wonder how much the share price will jump when the sort out finance and building consent.

[silu]

My spidey senses are telling me that maybe an announcement re the mezzanine debt is imminent. I know there will be another CR raise coming but it wouldn't go amiss rewarding shareholders with some cherries on top.

[Joshuatree]

Its who you know not what ehh situ;). One step closer, good luck there.
Altech Appoints Macquarie Bank as Mezzanine Debt Arranger 2 pages 638.1KB (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02084475)

[kiwitrev]

Taking longer and capital cost certainly far greater than originally envisaged BUT getting a Rolls Royce production plant with bonus extras-almost on an upward trajectory from here.

[silu]

A little bit of a nothing announcement (again). If one says this bank will be the lender wouldn't have they already inked out all the details and done their due diligence? But I shouldn't be too upset. With an avg price of 13.8c I'm in the money and holding a sizable parcel. I still believe that SMS is going to build a wonderful HPA producing plant in Johor. And if HPA requirements world-wide are going to increase as predicted it won't be the only one.

[kiwitrev]

Posted on HC
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-altech-appoints-macquarie-bank-as-mezzanine-debt-arranger.4667383/page-15?post_id=37705867

[kiwitrev]

Project is inching forward, however latest valuation from Petra Capital yesterday who attended the first steel raising at Johor site, reveals info. on finance and timing of project with conservative assumptions.

https://www.altechchemicals.com/sites/altechchemicals.com/files/news/Petra%20ATC%20Research%20Report%206%20Johor%20Site %20Visit%20Momentum%20Maintained%20May%2019.pdf

[silu]

Project is inching forward, however latest valuation from Petra Capital yesterday who attended the first steel raising at Johor site, reveals info. on finance and timing of project with conservative assumptions.

https://www.altechchemicals.com/sites/altechchemicals.com/files/news/Petra%20ATC%20Research%20Report%206%20Johor%20Site %20Visit%20Momentum%20Maintained%20May%2019.pdf

Thanks for sharing. Would have been nice to have Mezzanine debt finalized by now but I'm still happy to be a holder in ATC which is a big investment for me.

[Elles]

Thanks for sharing. Would have been nice to have Mezzanine debt finalized by now but I'm still happy to be a holder in ATC which is a big investment for me.

May I ask what % of your portfolio it is? I only have 1.5% as it's quite a long term process until profitability, although risk seems low.

[silu]

May I ask what % of your portfolio it is? I only have 1.5% as it's quite a long term process until profitability, although risk seems low.

5% (avg 13.5c) which is the upper limit for speculative stocks with my albeit sometimes loose rules.

[kiwitrev]

Holders (and non holders) will be interested in this report on future HPA prices by CRU Consulting. CRU are providing a report for Macquarrie (preferred financier) for US$90m.
https://www.altechchemicals.com/sites/altechchemicals.com/files/asx-announcements/6935662.pdf

[silu]

Still holding. Still waiting for financial close. What do you reckon Trev? If we get the first plant up and running a second one should be relatively easy to build and with re-financing much cheaper too given we have the off-take agreement with Mitsubishi?

[BlackPeter]

Still holding. Still waiting for financial close. What do you reckon Trev? If we get the first plant up and running a second one should be relatively easy to build and with re-financing much cheaper too given we have the off-take agreement with Mitsubishi?

It certainly takes time. From a personal perspective - I don't see it as "if", more than "when" will they get their factory up and running. It all takes longer than expected, but this is the way projects normally go.

Looking at the report - I don't think shareholders need to be concerned about the uptake when the factory is producing, and yes, cloning the first factory should be quite easy. But first let's get the first factory up and running. It was 2 years to production in 2015, it was 2 years to production in 2017 and it was 2 years to production in 2019. Let us hope this is a case of third time lucky!

10657
Timeline from the 2015 Breakaway "research" report;

[kiwitrev]

Still holding. Still waiting for financial close. What do you reckon Trev? If we get the first plant up and running a second one should be relatively easy to build and with re-financing much cheaper too given we have the off-take agreement with Mitsubishi?

Hi Silu
BP says it all really. The other significant point that arises from the CRU report is the material increase that will occur to the NPV-currently $666m on 4500tpa-if, as is expected, ramp up to 6000tpa is forecast.

[kiwitrev]

Hi Silu
BP says it all really. The other significant point that arises from the CRU report is the material increase that will occur to the NPV-currently $666m on 4500tpa-if, as is expected, ramp up to 6000tpa is forecast.
News from HC. Looks as if we might be on our way but more details needed. Check ATC website for any announcement they will make.

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/optionsvertrag-zum-erwerb-von-bis-zu-49-der-anteile-an-der-altech-chemicals-australia-pty-ltd-hpa-projekt.4862301/page-5?post_id=39572034

[silu]

Wow. Understanding this deal fully yet is probably above my pay-grade but from my understanding valuing the HPA project at approx US$204m (US$100m for 49%) is not too shabby.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190718/pdf/446ptnbs5brp56.pdf

[kiwitrev]

News from HC. Looks as if we might be on our way but more details needed. Check ATC website for any announcement they will make.

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/optionsvertrag-zum-erwerb-von-bis-zu-49-der-anteile-an-der-altech-chemicals-australia-pty-ltd-hpa-projekt.4862301/page-5?post_id=39572034

Here's the official ATC announcement
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190718/pdf/446ptnbs5brp56.pdf
Sorry Silu didn't realise your post on way

[silu]

Highlights from this announcement:

• Agreement to acquire 29% of German (Frankfurt) listed public company
• German public company name will change to Altech Advanced Materials AG
• Sale of a non-exclusive right to acquire up to 49% of Altech’s HPA project for US$100m
• Access to larger pool of European institutional investors
• Enhanced project valuation and less dilutionary for current Altech shareholders
• Aligns with European investors desire for battery materials exposure

[silu]

No worries Trev. You like me are probably a bit excited and try to make sense of it all ;)

[kiwitrev]

No worries Trev. You like me are probably a bit excited and try to make sense of it all ;)

Yes. A very convoluted deal and obviously requiring expert input into the whole thing. If it all works out the best bit is minimizing the amount of dilution.

[kiwitrev]

Latest news from Germany ex HC post
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-altech-all-cps-satisfied-for-european-equity-strategy.4904923/page-47?post_id=40133960

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-altech-all-cps-satisfied-for-european-equity-strategy.4904923/page-48?post_id=40137782

[silu]

Latest news from Germany ex HC post
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-altech-all-cps-satisfied-for-european-equity-strategy.4904923/page-47?post_id=40133960

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-altech-all-cps-satisfied-for-european-equity-strategy.4904923/page-48?post_id=40137782

Interesting esp regarding second plant in Germany. I always expected that Johor won't be their one and only plant should they successfully finish it. I guess the numbers still work shipping the kaolin from Meckering to Europe and add the higher compliance costs?

[BlackPeter]

Interesting esp regarding second plant in Germany. I always expected that Johor won't be their one and only plant should they successfully finish it. I guess the numbers still work shipping the kaolin from Meckering to Europe and add the higher compliance costs?

Shipping should not make a huge difference - biggest cost is getting the material on and off the ship. Work force and compliance are obviously more expensive in Germany - wondering whether one of the new Eastern extensions to the EU would make more sense, if they consider Europe ...

But hey - first lets get the finance for the first plant out of the way, shall we?

[silu]

Ze Germans want a zweite plant in Ihrem Mutterland!
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/atc.asx-6A945580/

[Ninefingers]

Das schmeckt gut :t_up:

[BlackPeter]

Ze Germans want a zweite plant in Ihrem Mutterland!
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/atc.asx-6A945580/

Actually - in German it would be "Vaterland". Sorry, but yes, still very interesting news ;);

[silu]

Actually - in German it would be "Vaterland". Sorry, but yes, still very interesting news ;);

Aufpassen! Mutterland steht für ein Land, in dem etwas heimisch ist, seinen Ursprung hat und eine weite Verbreitung gefunden hat. Ich bin Österreicher und die Familie meiner Mutter kommt von der französischen/deutschen Grenze also grammatisch war ich korrekt ;)

Just so you know that I'm a Besserwisser :)

[BlackPeter]

Aufpassen! Mutterland steht für ein Land, in dem etwas heimisch ist, seinen Ursprung hat und eine weite Verbreitung gefunden hat. Ich bin Österreicher und die Familie meiner Mutter kommt von der französischen/deutschen Grenze also grammatisch war ich korrekt ;)

Just so you know that I'm a Besserwisser :)

Besserwisser? Vielleicht. Besser wissen? Vielleicht nicht ;);

https://gfds.de/vaterlandmutterland/

Wenn Du Dir die Definition noch mal durchliest ist es ja wohl klar, dass die Fabrik allenfalls ins "Vaterland" der Deutschen kommen könnte (und nicht ins "Mutterland").

Deutschland mag das "Mutterland" der klassischen Musik und der "Dichter und Denker" sein, aber es ist sicher nicht das "Mutterland" - sondern das "Vaterland" der Deutschen.

Aber vielleicht ist ja Österreich das Mutterland der Besserwisser ... oder vielleicht doch ihr Vaterland ;)?

Hat übrigens alles nichts mit Grammatik zu tun. Grammatik ist "die Lehre vom Bau einer Sprache, ihren Formen und deren Funktion im Satz". Die Diskussion oben gehört wohl eher in den Bereich der Semantik.

Anyway - apologies to anybody not worrying about the fine differences between "Mutterland" (maybe best translated as country of origin) and "Vaterland" (maybe best translated as "homeland") - but this had to be said ... but it all has obviously nothing to do with ATC.

Interesting company with unlimited potential - and yes, if they can get subsidies for setting up their second fab in the center of the European car industry (i.e. Germany) which tries to remove their dependency on Asian battery supplies - sounds like a win - win to me.

[kiwitrev]

Just for the benefit for non-holders the announcement that Germany are inviting ATC to build additional plants in Germany, with prospect of subsidies and other goodies is attached. This has huge potential upside and should prove to be a big earner over time. In the short term just waiting for finance approval on 1st plant in Malaysia (just a complicated deal).
https://www.altechchemicals.com/sites/altechchemicals.com/files/asx-announcements/6945580.pdf

[kiwitrev]

Besserwisser? Vielleicht. Besser wissen? Vielleicht nicht ;);

https://gfds.de/vaterlandmutterland/

Wenn Du Dir die Definition noch mal durchliest ist es ja wohl klar, dass die Fabrik allenfalls ins "Vaterland" der Deutschen kommen könnte (und nicht ins "Mutterland").

Deutschland mag das "Mutterland" der klassischen Musik und der "Dichter und Denker" sein, aber es ist sicher nicht das "Mutterland" - sondern das "Vaterland" der Deutschen.

Aber vielleicht ist ja Österreich das Mutterland der Besserwisser ... oder vielleicht doch ihr Vaterland ;)?

Hat übrigens alles nichts mit Grammatik zu tun. Grammatik ist "die Lehre vom Bau einer Sprache, ihren Formen und deren Funktion im Satz". Die Diskussion oben gehört wohl eher in den Bereich der Semantik.

Anyway - apologies to anybody not worrying about the fine differences between "Mutterland" (maybe best translated as country of origin) and "Vaterland" (maybe best translated as "homeland") - but this had to be said ... but it all has obviously nothing to do with ATC.

Interesting company with unlimited potential - and yes, if they can get subsidies for setting up their second fab in the center of the European car industry (i.e. Germany) which tries to remove their dependency on Asian battery supplies - sounds like a win - win to me.

BP
Can you translate?https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/the-german-refinancing-vehicle-youbisheng-in-a-new-livery.4966403/page-2?post_id=40556936

[BlackPeter]

BP
Can you translate?https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/the-german-refinancing-vehicle-youbisheng-in-a-new-livery.4966403/page-2?post_id=40556936

I probably could ... however the referred to link is broken :( and says in best Queens English "Oops! 404 Page Not Found." ;);

headline says ATC hightec company takes finance hurdle ...

Anyway - IF it is the hurdle we all think about, than I would soon expect an ASX announcement (without need for translation), but maybe it was just an over-eager journalist ....

[kiwitrev]

I probably could ... however the referred to link is broken :( and says in best Queens English "Oops! 404 Page Not Found." ;);

headline says ATC hightec company takes finance hurdle ...

Anyway - IF it is the hurdle we all think about, than I would soon expect an ASX announcement (without need for translation), but maybe it was just an over-eager journalist ....

Thanx for your help BP, wait for further news.

[BlackPeter]

Thanx for your help BP, wait for further news.

OK - found a working link:

http://altechadvancedmaterials.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/GLOB-10-2019-Seite-6-Altech-Chemicals_AAM.pdf

... basically a quite bulish journalists view on ATC, summarising what we all know starting with Adam and Eve ...

Only thing which surprised me is that the paper claims that

"+ Die australische Macquarie-Bank stellt eine Mezzanine-Finanzierung über 90 Mio. USD bereit.", which means "Macquarie provides mezzanine finance for US$90m;" He is basically presenting mezzanine finance as done deal.

If he got that right, than the article is a sensation, but I suppose it is more likely a cook up from the journalist ...

[kiwitrev]

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/the-german-refinancing-vehicle-youbisheng-in-a-new-livery.4966403/page-4?post_id=40557567

[silu]

Tesla announces battery factory for Germany
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/tesla-s-made-in-germany-dream-elon-musk-takes-on-car-giants-by-setting-up-shop-in-berlin-20191114-p53afg.html

Looks as if Germany is going to become the powerhouse for battery technology and vindication for ATC's management to seek funding strategies from Germany. I also own TLG (Talga) which should benefit due to it's close proximity to Germany.

[silu]

Everyone else here giving this CR at wide berth? I am not as confident as I was 6 months ago.

[BlackPeter]

Everyone else here giving this CR at wide berth? I am not as confident as I was 6 months ago.

Hard to say - I guess on one hand it looks like they have the material, the process, committed contractors, suppliers as well as customers. Market demand looks really rosy. So does business case. All nice and fluffy.

They have as well the majority of their finance package tied up and a plan to do the rest.

Just not sure why the completion of the finance package takes that much time ... I guess sure, anybody would understand months - and maybe a year, but what the heck is Macca doing and why don't ATC have a plan B in place?

A bit more information from the company would be appreciated before I want to open the Cheque book again ...

[Carpenterjoe]

Everyone else here giving this CR at wide berth? I am not as confident as I was 6 months ago.

Nope gonna wait. As Jerry would say, "show me the finance money".

[silu]

Pretty much what I thought and yeah I'm not participating. I've used my refund money from the Serko SPP and bought more of Talga (TLG) another battery play of mine.

[wizAlvin]

only 30 + hours to get your 2020 picks in .... about ONE DAY

[silu]

I can't see myself staying in ATC anymore. All my spidey senses tell me that there are big, big issues with the financing. I think I'll have to take the losses on the chin and move on.

[BlackPeter]

I can't see myself staying in ATC anymore. All my spidey senses tell me that there are big, big issues with the financing. I think I'll have to take the losses on the chin and move on.

Hard to say ... it is not always the best strategy to sell during a stampede, but yes, management silence is sort of a worry.

Right or wrong - still holding and waiting for the dust to settle.

[silu]

I haven't sold yet somehow I'm tempted to participate in the Rights Issue although I don't really understand the complex German strategy Iggy is implementing. Out of curiosity anyone still keeping faith with this coy?

[BlackPeter]

I haven't sold yet somehow I'm tempted to participate in the Rights Issue although I don't really understand the complex German strategy Iggy is implementing. Out of curiosity anyone still keeping faith with this coy?

Ex-long term holder here. Sold out after the announcement of the latest CR.

The core problem is that Iggy does not find people with sufficient faith into the business proposition. No matter how complicated they structure their finance - it does not solve the core problem.

If the market for HPA would be as good as Iggy's charts show, than one of the big players in the industry would have already bought into the company or have taken it over. A less than $40m market cap is peanuts for them. Nobody queuing up. Market for HPA is clearly not as good as ATC wants to make us believe.

Last straw for me was a recent phone call with Iggy. He was nice and friendly and did not give me any new information, but he compared the search for interim finance with a fishing expedition.

I asked myself whether I would keep throwing money at a fisher who didn't catch a fish for three years (despite trying - LOL). The answer was pretty obvious for me.

Does not exclude ATC having luck in the future, but sheer luck is not normally a good investment strategy.

Anyway - good luck to holders, you deserve it (and I think you will need it)!

[silu]

Thanks for the feedback. If there is one thing I'm not good at is admitting that I was wrong and move on. ATC has been by far my worst investment decision over the last 5 years yet even after losing faith in Iggy I still have this wishful thinking that it somehow must be coming right.

Maybe I should invest in a life coach to teach me how to rip off band aids. Might be a good investment in the future.

[SPARKY]

Hi Silu, I hope you still have TLG, that would cheer you up a bit.
cheers

[silu]

Hi Silu, I hope you still have TLG, that would cheer you up a bit.
cheers

Oh I do and yes very happy - see separate thread if you want to join in!

[Ninefingers]

Holding in the red. HPA critical to getting the most out of Li batteries. Will participate in CR and a handful of oversubs as the option is compelling IMO. Pity the financing strategy is a little unclear. Connection to SMS keeping me in.

[BlackPeter]

Holding in the red. HPA critical to getting the most out of Li batteries. Will participate in CR and a handful of oversubs as the option is compelling IMO. Pity the financing strategy is a little unclear. Connection to SMS keeping me in.

Do you have any explanation why the search to find mezzanine finance is now going into the fourth year? That's not bad luck or Covid or whatever - this is a bad business case.

I gave them three years (and this was probably two years too many) to complete the finance. Iggy paid himself quite nicely during this time.

While HPA might be important to make Lithium batteries (and LED's, and scratch resistant glass) - the fact that NONE of the intended customers is prepared to give ATC a purchase guarantee for parts of their production (i.e. signing off on amount and price) does show clearly to me that either the market needs neither ATC nor its production or - Iggy and his team don't talk with the right people. Whatever it is - neither would be good.

ATC stated clearly that the HPA market is "opaque". This means to me that neither supply shortfall (if any) nor price are predictable. This stopped Macca to provide the mezzanine finance, and this will in my view stop anybody else as well. The latest CR won't further the project - it is just to pay Iggy's and the teams salaries for another year or so. Afterwards they will need to raise some serious cash (if they are successful in year four) or a similar amount to finance their salaries in 2022 ...

Anyway - this was what I pondered on, when I sold my parcel (ways in the red).

Good luck - this was as well what Iggy said to me when we ended our recent telephone conversation ...

[Ninefingers]

Item Proceeds of the Offer ($) %
1 Deferred consideration - acquisition of shares AAM AG 2,000,000 13.8
2 Stage 2 early works HPA plant payments 5,800,000 39.9
3 Senior Loan Commitment fees 260,000 1.8
4 Development works - HPA Anode product 700,000 4.8
5 Due Diligence & Feasibility Study - German HPA Plant 700,000 4.8
6 Green Bonds 860,000 5.9
7 Land - Schwarze Pumpe, Germany (ATC portion) 1,350,000 9.3
8 Expenses of the Offer 400,000 2.8
9 Corporate costs and working capital 2,463,392 16.9
Total 14,533,392 100.0

Seems they are spreading the cash around various work streams.
Interesting you had a 3 year hold time, I do too, 1.5 years to go though hence why the 18month options I like.
The fact they were approached for the anode coating shows to me that, although an opaque industry, their scientific contributions are valued. Similarly approached to look at a German plant.

[BlackPeter]

Item Proceeds of the Offer ($) %
1 Deferred consideration - acquisition of shares AAM AG 2,000,000 13.8
2 Stage 2 early works HPA plant payments 5,800,000 39.9
3 Senior Loan Commitment fees 260,000 1.8
4 Development works - HPA Anode product 700,000 4.8
5 Due Diligence & Feasibility Study - German HPA Plant 700,000 4.8
6 Green Bonds 860,000 5.9
7 Land - Schwarze Pumpe, Germany (ATC portion) 1,350,000 9.3
8 Expenses of the Offer 400,000 2.8
9 Corporate costs and working capital 2,463,392 16.9
Total 14,533,392 100.0

Seems they are spreading the cash around various work streams.
Interesting you had a 3 year hold time, I do too, 1.5 years to go though hence why the 18month options I like.
The fact they were approached for the anode coating shows to me that, although an opaque industry, their scientific contributions are valued. Similarly approached to look at a German plant.

Actually - was holding for roughly 5 years, the three years I mentioned are only the time since they managed to secure their KfW loan. Silly me thought at that stage that this basically secured the finance for the project. How wrong I was ...

What however really bugs me is that Iggy is still using in his presentations the same prediction of the HPA market (starting with forecasts (not actual data) for 2015 - LOL) he was using already 5 years ago. No updated numbers for the years passed. I think this clearly indicates that he has as well no clue how much 4N HPA the industry really needs - and what customers are paying for it.

As I said - they may or may not be successful in the end, but after three years without any progress on securing the last bit of finance nobody can say they are lucky.

Good old Fritz (Friedrich II - King of Prussia) is said that he promoted in his army only officers people called lucky. I think this was a good strategy :):

[Ninefingers]

BlackPeter for what it's worth after your comments I ruminated on your points and put the funds into a gold share instead, which so far has been a better performer.

Still believe Altech will come good, I like the technology.

[Joshuatree]

That's a gentle backhander🤓

[greater fool]

That's a gentle backhander🤓

I'd call it facing reality.
I've never understood the fascination for ATC on this forum. Always thought there are way better HPA producer options on the ASX.
FYI and A4N for starters.

disc. I hold a bunch of free shares in one of these two examples.

[silu]

Had a little rally of late but me thinks this just got caught up in the batter hype of late. I'd need another +100% just to break even. Or is there anything that I may have missed that would explain the surge in SP?

[clearasmud]

That's the 64k question.
However if it looks and acts like a pump and dump then it likely is that.

[silu]

That's the 64k question.
However if it looks and acts like a pump and dump then it likely is that.

It certainly looks like it.

[clearasmud]

Due to ATC's poor performance it is now a second tier hpa hopeful.
However this new energy story is lifting all boats, so who knows how high this stock may go just on that alone.
Also a rising stock price may assist ATC in its marketing efforts.

[Ninefingers]

ATC maneuvering to be a user of HPA, smart strategy.

ALTECH – BREAKTHROUGH SILICON ALUMINACOATING DEVELOPMENT
Highlights
• Breakthrough silicon alumina coating development
• Tesla vision is for more silicon in lithium-ion battery anodes
• Silicon has ten times energy capacity compared to graphite
• Capacity retention during cycling potentially improved via alumina coating

Smart cookies.

[BlackPeter]

ATC maneuvering to be a user of HPA, smart strategy.

ALTECH – BREAKTHROUGH SILICON ALUMINACOATING DEVELOPMENT
Highlights
• Breakthrough silicon alumina coating development
• Tesla vision is for more silicon in lithium-ion battery anodes
• Silicon has ten times energy capacity compared to graphite
• Capacity retention during cycling potentially improved via alumina coating

Smart cookies.

Smart?

Not so sure, but more important would be for them to complete their finance package. Now four years and counting to find anybody prepared to complete their finance package. Nobody biting - and I doubt that the latest fuzzy announcements will make the HPA market less opaque.

Still nothing in for shareholders - just the overture for the next capital rise:

A) Make some vague announcements about another potential use for their product, but don't mention missing finance,
B) Pump the SP,
C) Announce CR and Collect Shareholders Contributions
D) Add another layer to the not working funding model
E) Go back to A;

[silu]

I'd like to believe but alas I cannot. I still have some shares left but need 110% return from current levels just to break even. I believed Iggy's HPA forecast figures which now seems like ages ago. Give me something tangible and I might start believing again.

[silu]

I'd like to believe but alas I cannot. I still have some shares left but need 110% return from current levels just to break even. I believed Iggy's HPA forecast figures which now seems like ages ago. Give me something tangible and I might start believing again.