Experimenting some TA [Archive]

blu3

09-11-2015, 08:23 PM

Hi everyone,

Finally! I am done with reading “A New Trading For a Living” by Alexander Elder! I now feel more knowledgeable and confused than ever but what is sure is that I'm ready to make some serious losses! I mean, gains—hopefully.

I'm thinking of using this thread to list some trades that I've made, as well as others that got me thinking but didn't lead to taking any action (yet).

Note that I am not into short-term trading but, to start with, I would be more interested to use TA as a way to pick better entries/exits for longer-term holding of stocks which are strong on the FA side. In other words, I would like to follow an approach similar to what KW described in her thread “Using TA to time entries and exits (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9176-Using-TA-to-time-entries-and-exits)”.

I will be grateful for every—constructive—feedback and hope that the resulting discussion will help not only me but everyone interested in having a better approach. Please feel free to also post your own trades!

Here I come! :D

Disclaimer: do not reproduce my trades if you don't want to lose your money.

blu3

09-11-2015, 08:33 PM

Buy: GEM (ASX)

Disclaimer: I still know pretty much nothing about FA but decided anyways to try out some TA almost on its own, with a very small risk per trade (I call it the “much less than 1% rule”), to see what happens. Yes, I didn't have to make an actual trade to try it out, but it wouldn't be as authentic.

http://i.imgur.com/WH9PxQF.gif

One of the thing that I remember the most from that book is the bullish divergence. That's what I thought seeing here and, if my interpretation of the chart is correct, it could very well even be a triple bullish divergence! There are 3 lower low prices with their corresponding higher low MACD-Hs, as well the MACD-H breaking through the centerline between the bottoms. Such divergence is considered as a strong indicator that this might be the end of a downtrend with a major reversal on its way.

This is confirmed here with the MACD lines, MACD-H, and EMA 25 all pointing up on the weekly chart, as well as a record high MACD-H for the past 3 months. I'm not too sure about what to think about the volumes though?

I've had difficulties to pinpoint support/resistance levels but ended up with a resistance one that seems fairly solid (according to its duration and volume) at $3.6, another one at $3.8, and finally at $4.2. As such, and in the hope that this is indeed the begin of a major trend, I set my target price to $4.2. I consider the support to be at around $3, and so I set my stop loss price a bit randomly at $3.06. Well, since Direct Broking doesn't allow to set a stop loss on the ASX, I will have to do this manually. Not sure if this stop is far enough for picking up major trends?

I decided to use today's decline as an exercise to pick the best entry point that I could, using an intraday 15-min chart. Hoping that the EMA 200 would serve as a support level, I ended up getting in at $3.34 only to end up following, powerless, the price reaching the low of the day at $3.31 before bouncing back a bit. Not so encouraging for my TA non-skills but not a big deal neither.

In short, here are the numbers:
- entry price: $3.34
- target price: $4.20 (+25.75%)
- stop price: $3.06 (-8.38%)
- close of the day: $3.33 (-0.3%)

Wish me good luck!

Jay

10-11-2015, 07:50 AM

Good on you b3.
Question though: If you think support is at $3.00 why put your initial stop above that?
I would have put it initially at $2.98/$2.99 and adjusted the number buying if you want to keep the risk amount/% about the same

Volume looks to be above average for the last few months so a tick there IMHO

DISC: As far as I know, I know nothing F/A wise about the company and not much TA wise either only going on the above!

Longhaul

10-11-2015, 08:26 AM

Good luck blu3! Will watch with interest. I'm also getting into swing trading at the moment. Mostly just trying to ride the undulations of stocks in uptrends as they push higher.

In GEM's case, personally I don't have enough experience to try and pick bottoms, but looks like a good test of pure TA. Hope it works out!

blu3

10-11-2015, 01:54 PM

If you think support is at $3.00 why put your initial stop above that?

Yes, you are right, this wasn't a very rational decision. I thought that if this bullish pattern had any predictable effect, then I really wouldn't want to see the price going down all the way back to below the recent price gains, so I tightened it a bit. If I were to set the stop below the support level, I would probably have put it around $2.93 to—hopefully—avoid a minor false breakout. But then the risk/reward ratio didn't look as interesting for such a bullish pattern! I said that it was irrational, right? Worst case, if I end up selling, I guess that I can still get back in later if I see that it's bouncing back. Even though it's probably going to be a harder call TA-wise?

On the FA front, it's not looking too bad according to KW's bullet points from the thread linked above:
- growing EPS over the last 3 years: 0.09, 0.11, 0.16. CHECK.
- growing dividends over the last 3 years: 0.1, 0.17, 0.27. CHECK.
- ROC greater than 10: 12.51. CHECK.
- ROE greater than 10: 12.45. CHECK.
- P/E lesser than 15: 25.74. FAIL—but not a hard rule.

It would be helpful though if I'd knew how to value the company on a FA basis but I'm not there yet.

Cheers Longhaul, best luck to you, and don't hesitate to post your trades somewhere if you weel like sharing!

Looks like the price is still heading South today, which is a bit scary. I understand that there are some pullbacks during any trend, and hopefully that is only that. On another note, I guess that making profit can't be as easy as spotting a pattern non a chart! :) Maybe there is something to do with the bigger picture, like the overall Australian market looking gloomy. This could mean that the global picture overrides super-bullish patterns seen on stocks?

blu3

10-11-2015, 09:42 PM

The biggest lesson that I've learned from Elder's book is that charts reflect M. Market's psychology. Yup, I didn't even know that. And yes, it's definitely not easy to sort out the rest when you're not a short-term trader though. Just the numbers he's using for his MA are way too sensitive, as is his approach to using other tools.

But I definitely took note of the multiple timeframe approach and noticed the current (previous?) long-term downtrend in GEM. I am definitely after buying in uptrends but I see this trade as a sort of exception where I wanted to check if this kind of bullish divergence pattern was indeed strong enough to pick a bottom. He didn't even bothered talking about volume when going through this pattern, so I thought that maybe it'd be fine! We'll see how it goes but thanks to you I am now even more doubtful towards the chances of success for this trade :)

So far, it sounds like some fight is happening around the $3.3 mark, but I'm not sure if I should call this a resistance or a support level :) The price going up towards the end of the daily sessions might be a positive sign that the “pros” are buying, as described in the book, but it's true that in comparison with good volume, this probably doesn't mean much.

I've had a look at EML's chart and, despite me wanting to start buying in uptrends, the truth is that it's hard to not think “this might be the top” when such a rally is going on. Not sure how to convince myself to discard this instinctive thought yet.

As a side note, I think that BBG has been doing even better on the sucker front. It went from its mid-2007 high of $18.5 down all the way to $0.15 in mid-2013—that's -99% in 5 years! Definitely worth the “fallen angel” label as described in Elder's book, especially since the recent turnaround strategy seems to be starting to pay off—the price is slowly rising, it recently hit $0.75, making it for a +400% increase since its lowest peak and +35% during the last 3 months. Might be worth watching for the ones prone to taking risks. Shameful disclaimer: been holding a small parcel since February 2013 then averaged down in May 2014 for a total average price of $0.65. Needless to say that I've never been very good with timings—and that one should *not* buy in a downtrend! :)

Thanks for the new book recommendations!

blu3

12-11-2015, 02:57 AM

We all suffer from this. Its actually really hard to get your head round. I hate Hotcopper hot stocks, because the run away share price puts me in a psychological position of not wanting to buy in. Consequently, I miss some of the biggest movers on the market. I have to get over it as well! I think the thing to remember, is that its better to be running with the bulls than to be fighting with the bears. So see new highs and fast movers as an opportunity to join the herd, rather than it being a trap. That's what I'm going to tell myself anyway :D (backed up by strict stop losses of course to protect your ass if it turns out to be a pump and dump)

Are you willing to test your determination? I've found a good stock chart-wise for you: DMP (ASX)! :) It even fits your FA checkboxes (I believe), at the exception of the P/E.

blu3

12-11-2015, 03:12 AM

Watching: TNE (ASX)

http://i.imgur.com/74gW0Gj.gif

I've been looking for some new stock ideas and found this nice looking chart. If buying in an uptrend is the rule then this stock scores a 5-year long one! Unfortunately the pullback areas seems to have grown stronger over the years and it have entered a more turbulent one since April 2015 with the price reaching way below the EMA 50, and now heading towards it once more.

I've read on HC that one possible reason for the current pullback could be due to the stock being overpriced. Or maybe is it a negative sentiment in apprehension of the FY 2015 to be released on Janurary 2016? Note that they've released a HY 2015 report back in June that is weaker than the previous HY but this is due to, I quote: “a number of significant deals close earlier than normal which saw 2014 first half Licence fees up 24%”. But they're confident that the FY 2015, expected to be reported in January 2016, will be strong. Unfortunately I've got no idea how to do a FA valuation myself, and am not able yet to read between the lines and understand what's going on behind each business.

Highlights:
- 5-year long uptrend (+275%)
- no overhead resistance in the previous 12 months (if the SP bounces back from its current pullback)
- director bought $188k worth of shares at $3.87 each (1 June 2015)
- NPAT: $31M (FY 2014), $27M (FY 2013), $23.5M (FY 2012)
- EPS: 10.06 (FY 2014), 8.78 (FY 2013), 7.73 (FY 2012)
- dividends: 6.16 (FY 2014), 5.6 (FY 2013), 5.09 (FY 2012)
- ROE: 30 (FY 2014), 31 (FY 2013), 32 (FY 2012)
- cash: $80.2M (FY 2014), $65.4M (FY 2013), $51.1M (FY2012)
- total liabilities: $46.8M (FY 2014), $49.9 (FY 2013)
- debt/equity ratio: 4%

With all these highlights seeming positive to a neophyte like me, and this nice looking chart, I'm now wondering if I should get in if the uptrend resumes or if I should stay aside while expecting a correction. Hard to tell without knowing the FA valuation, but if a director invested $188k at $3.87, it can't be a bad sign, right?

winner69

12-11-2015, 06:52 PM

Blu - your GEM going OK

blu3

12-11-2015, 08:35 PM

I see your DMP and raise you BKL :-)

Re TNE - its going into a consolidation period after a long run up. No way to know how long for, but you are better off looking for something that is in the beginning or middle of an uptrend than one that is at the end of it. Your weekly and daily charts need to agree with each other - and the TNE daily chart is not great. You want something that looks like PRO on both daily and weekly. The major benefit of TA is that it sorts through the crap - so dont settle for any old trade, wait for one that is perfect and then go for it.

77207721

That BKL is surely showing a nice curve! It actually looks like they've been trying to draw an exponential function for the past 2 years. But I'll let you go ahead with that one, I'm definitely not ready for this just yet :)

And yes, that's why I didn't buy TNE but added it to my watchlist instead, in case the uptrend resumes. Let's see how it goes!

Believe me or not but I also picked PRO amongst the screening that I've made a couple of days ago and I was thinking of writing a post about it but you've just spoiled everything! Just kidding, thanks for sharing! It's great to see that it's in your list, this must be a good sign! :)

Is it me or the time scale on your daily chart isn't linear around February-April 2015? Is it a common feature amongst advanced charting tools? I really like the look of your charts btw! :) Is it from a paying service? I'm currently stuck with a mix of BigCharts (not so interactive and not so accurate MAs) and Yahoo Finance (not so complete) as I didn't manage to find a good, free, charting tool for the NZX/ASX that works on Mac OSX. Whenever it's free, there always seems to be some sort of limitations with the current charting softwares. On the bright side, it means that there's plenty of space for starting a cool multi-platform open-source development project!

Blu - your GEM going OK

Let's not draw conclusions after a single positive day on average volume—it's only 2.1% up in my book and is at 8% from my target price, that's a long way to go! :)

Hoop

12-11-2015, 08:53 PM

Blu3...please keep to the TA easy stocks...either stocks with repeating patterns or as KW says up trending stocks..

One thing I have learn't over the years is to keep well away from low volume (illiquidity distorts TA indicators) and also TA unfriendly stocks

Afraid of a possible drop with a up trending stocks?....Unfortunately this is some sort of animal instinctive behavioural dysfunction we all have hot-wired into our brains....best way to cope is to reverse think (contrarians are good at it:)))...If you are not afraid of buying a down trending stock you are therefore sub-consciously not afraid of the drops..right?..eh?...This dysfunction shows up in a big way at certain times...E.g Cautious and Newbie Investors finally shaking of their fear and buying in big time when the market is reaching the top of its bull market cycle and these same investors ride the bear market all the way down only to finally give up and sell out with the feeling of hopelessness and despair near the bottom of the cycle..

Anyway you don't have to worry about this dysfunction problem at all because when you are using a TA discipline, TA decides to buy or sell, not you!!...With up-trending stocks unless there are divergences, TA is nearly always favourable so it's buy buy buy...Afraid of buying in and see the up trend end?.. chances are well in your favour that you will have capital gains by the time the trend ends..if your timing is wrong and the up-trend stock tops out (TA says sell), no problem just quit for a small loss and try again...

Remember two things...TA will tell you when to sell so no need to be afraid.....remember the saying Emotion Kills.. many portfolio disasters are due to misguided feelings, wishful thinking, biases, etc which create false logic and prevents you from selling out or buying in.... being afraid is an emotion and is one of the two most common emotions when share investing (the other is greed)..
I often hear investors say I've tried TA and it doesn't work..When analysing these people, the biggest failing they have is the lack of ability to let go control and trust TA to control for them..

Blu3...All the TA books in the world doesn't help make you successful..You have to have a certain mental makeup..A successful TA investor has to have an inner belief and confidence in the discipline they are relinquishing complete control to, and be able to stick with the discipline during tough times..there will be failures because TA is about 70% accurate (odds in your favour)...The test to see if you are a TA investor or not will arrive when TA says sell on a stock you have total opposite feelings to.. such as a stock with a perception of a lot of fundamental upside left in it... AIR is an example of this at the moment ....remember, trust TA.. if this stock is as good as you think, TA will soon tell you when to get back in..

blu3

13-11-2015, 01:16 PM

Hoop, you are spot on and I know that you are right. These behavioural things that you are referring to are well-described in the books “Thinking, Fast and Slow” from economic Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman and “Deep Survival: Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why” by Laurence Gonzales. Basically, each such instinctive reaction exists as a result of a natural selection on which depends the survival of a specie. Now, I can see how breathing or having sex help with survival of a specie but I'm still trying to figure out to which survival trait is connected the fact that we're scared of such uptrend charts, especially since we tend to follow group movements! :)

What's sure is that it's not easy to get rid of it and I'm not at a point yet where I can trust my TA readings—I'm still a bit clueless of when to buy or sell. Yesterday for example, I—finally—put all my current holdings in a spreadsheet and tried to define the stop prices but... it all went a bit too randomly. Also, thinking of it, it's a bit scary to not have access to the stop loss option with DirectBroking on the ASX (and I'm not even sure how to correctly use the “trigger when” thingy on the NZX).

Anyways, I will definitely read the books that KW mentioned in the hope that it will help me with that, starting with “Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard” by Mark Minervini. I'm far from being a fast reader so it might take me quite a long time to get through all of them. In the meanwhile I will try to pick some uptrend stocks to keep learning through (blind) experiments using my “much less than 1% rule”. Just a quick question in this regard—say that you would be interested in buying DMP, PRO, BKL, or other insanely uptrending stock which are currently trading way above their EMAs‚ wouldn't it be judicious to wait for a time when the uptrend will resume after a pullback in the EMAs area before buying in? I feel like I've been reading this a lot in Elder's book. Or is setting a tight (?) stop enough to process confidently with the trade?

In any case, I'm all pumped up now! Thanks for your insights Hoop, KW!

PS: I've been wanting to open an account with Interactive Brokers for a while since the commissions are lower and the charting tools look much better (thanks for the confirmation, KW!) but I've got no idea of how the transfer process works. Would I have to sell all my AU holdings, withdraw them in NZD from DirectBroking onto my NZ bank account, open the IB account after transferring the money in USD, then reconvert the money back onto AUD before finally being able to buy back the shares I've had? That surely would be costly in fees! Isn't it possible to simply transfer the holdings from one broker to the other since after all they are only intermediaries between us and the share registries? Is it actually a viable option at all to trade on the ASX with IB? Too bad that they don't seem to support the NZX though. On the other hand, gaining an access to the US market sounds a good compensation I reckon! :)

GTM 3442

14-11-2015, 01:41 AM

PS: I've been wanting to open an account with Interactive Brokers for a while since the commissions are lower and the charting tools look much better (thanks for the confirmation, KW!) but I've got no idea of how the transfer process works. )

Would it make sense for you to run two portfolios - one via DB in NZ and the other via IB in the US?

I'd be interested in what you decide to do, and the mechanics of doing that.

Thanks in advance.

ratkin

14-11-2015, 06:31 AM

Most important thing i have learnt over the years is not to trade against the overall index.
The ASX all ords has had me not buying since 8/5/15

However its very hard to do, and i admit to a bit of bottom fishing a few weeks back, and it didnt go well, served as a reminder to stick to me no buying when overall index CCI 20 is below zero (weekly chart)

Then when it is above zero i buy new 52 week highs

Like i said before though , its very hard to stick to. Who wants to go six months without buying a stock?

kiora

14-11-2015, 07:03 AM

ratkin

14-11-2015, 06:06 PM

Hi Ratkin
That looks like sound advice
Which charting software do you use ?

Amibroker, but only because i like messing around designing systems etc. For the buying and selling, Incredible charts is more than enough. Its not the software that makes money its being disciplined enough to implement the plan.

One book and service i would really recommend to you is Colin Nicholsons book Building wealth in the Stock market. He also has a website, and for 60 dollars a year is well worth it for the amount of good advice on the site. He is a top bloke, not like most who are just out for themselves. I can speak from personal experience when i say he will go out of his way to be very helpful. He uses TA for long term investments , combined with FA to select good stocks

That is for my trading account at least. I also have the investment portfolio which is pretty much buy and hold, and i purposely ignore TA on that one. Thats full of healthcare stocks at the moment and has been for around ten years or more.

Here is a image from amibroker, showing how the simple CC1 20 on the weekly all ords chart has said since May not to buy any stocks. Like i said before, i ignored that advice a few weeks back, thinking i knew best. I didnt :-( Not much damage done, but am annoyed at my lack of discipline to wait it out completely.

7723

Baa_Baa

14-11-2015, 07:21 PM

Although I use Incredible Charts in a Windows 7 virtual machine (Parallels Desktop) on my Mac OSX [whic is much more simple than it sounds!], and like ratkin says it's fine for entering and exiting, especially for me who tends to work the weekly charts and use the daily for confirmations, I've been playing around with this http://www.investing.com/charts/live-charts recently which has some really nice tools on a modern clean UI and some intra-day time periods. Enjoy.

(oh .. but it doesn't have NZX companies, but ASX etc is fine)

BAA

kiora

15-11-2015, 08:23 AM

blu3

15-11-2015, 05:22 PM

Would it make sense for you to run two portfolios - one via DB in NZ and the other via IB in the US?

I'd be interested in what you decide to do, and the mechanics of doing that.

I guess it would make sense but I'm not planning to trade in the US anytime soon, and that is because of the NZD/USD rate not looking so good at the moment. I was mostly thinking of using it on the ASX for now due to the stop-loss option and the lower commission rates but then I would need to do more researches and comparison between brokers. As well as receiving feedbacks from the whole transfer process, for which I'd rather not play the role of the guinea pig :)

Also it would be nice for using their FA+TA stock screener since I couldn't find any good (and free) one for the ASX so far. In fact I wished that I had access to such a screener somewhere not related to any broker but most of them are not free, probably because the data itself is not free. Maybe a Wiki system would make sense here—everyone could contribute by adding the reporting numbers for different companies, which would hopefully provide enough data for everyone to use freely and builds tools upon.

Most important thing i have learnt over the years is not to trade against the overall index.

This definitely makes sense, thanks for the advice! That being said, I guess that there must be some exceptions like in every rule? I'm saying that because I've just found a stock that has a nice uptrend chart and that—so far—seems to outperform the S&P/ASX 200 for more than 2 years while not being too impacted by the slumps of the index. That is ASB (ASX):

http://i.imgur.com/URy4VvA.gif

I'm thinking of giving it a go even though I'll probably end up saying that you were right :)

Edit: I'll probably back up on this since I hadn't check the FA yet—which doesn't look that solid so far.

I've been playing around with this http://www.investing.com/charts/live-charts recently which has some really nice tools on a modern clean UI and some intra-day time periods.

I've seen that one too, and in fact many others that are all based on the same tool, that is TradingView (https://www.tradingview.com/). The cool thing is that their allow anyone to use their library (https://www.tradingview.com/HTML5-stock-forex-bitcoin-charting-library/) and link it to any data that we want. The main condition being to make the resulting tool available for free on the internet, which is what investing.com is probably doing along with chart.bz (http://chart.bz/) and others. So theorically, it should be possible to register a domain name, buy a cheap web hosting service, send a request for their library, install it, and link to Yahoo's data to get access to the ASX, NZX, and anything else.

ratkin

15-11-2015, 09:08 PM

I'm thinking of giving it a go even though I'll probably end up saying that you were right :)

So , if you are already going against all the advice you have been given, its clear there is only one way for you to learn

THE HARD WAY :D

Im thinking you will not have the required patience for this game

GTM 3442

15-11-2015, 11:15 PM

I guess it would make sense but I'm not planning to trade in the US anytime soon, and that is because of the NZD/USD rate not looking so good at the moment. I was mostly thinking of using it on the ASX for now due to the stop-loss option and the lower commission rates but then I would need to do more researches and comparison between brokers. As well as receiving feedbacks from the whole transfer process, for which I'd rather not play the role of the guinea pig :)

Ah, OK, I have only ever heard IB mentioned in a US context.

Shame abut the guinea pig though. It's possible that I might want to do a spot of that in the future, (although for reasons of concentration, rather than diversification) and it would be nice to have had that guinea pig.

Oh well, c'est la vie. . .

blu3

16-11-2015, 03:12 AM

Im thinking you will not have the required patience for this game

And I'm thinking that you're coming to conclusions too quickly! :) Isn't all of us allocating a small part of our portfolio for some “fun” experimental trades? Are you really planning to spend the 2 next years twiddling your thumbs waiting for the next bull market?

Also, I will definitely focus my efforts (and portfolio) towards the proven “buying in an uptrend” consensus, but I am not willing to close any door for alternative thinkings. After all “conventional wisdom produces conventional results”, thanks M. Mark Minervini :) I'm sure that there must have been some winning stocks in each bear market in the past and it would be interesting to figure out what they have in common—not saying that this is the reason why I would have bought ASB though.

Shame abut the guinea pig though.

Sorry to disappoint :)

ratkin

16-11-2015, 05:21 AM

Naturally some stocks rise when the general index is falling, but its much easier rowing with the current than against it

Longhaul

16-11-2015, 12:25 PM

You dont twiddle your thumbs. You go short in a bear market. If you dont want to go short then you sit out.

KW - what are the shorting options we mere NZers have?

blu3

16-11-2015, 01:17 PM

You dont twiddle your thumbs. You go short in a bear market. If you dont want to go short then you sit out.

Would you really recommend shorting to a beginner? To me it looks like the priority would be to focus on a single strategy, such as buying in uptrends, to understand and execute it well before thinking of diversifying (outside the experimental “fun” part of the portfolio).

Well, I guess that even when sitting out there would still be plenty of work to do to be prepared for the next bull.

Longhaul

16-11-2015, 01:38 PM

To me it looks like the priority would be to focus on a single strategy, such as buying in uptrends, to understand and execute it well before thinking of diversifying (outside the experimental “fun” part of the portfolio).

Yeah agree with this. I'm focusing on riding momentum with short term upswings. Shorting is something I will look into once I'm comfortable with my current approach. Glad I took profit off the table on Friday (with XRO). Something even as simple as taking profit can be hard to do!

blu3

20-11-2015, 12:52 PM

I guess it depends. Could you drive your car only going forward and never using reverse?

True fact: most Paraguayans can't reverse properly in a 20 meter wide parking spot! :) Joke aside, I understand that it makes sense but I'm just concerned that it will be confusing for a starter. I'll see if reading these put me in a more comfortable spot where at least I'll understand the basics behind shorting, then I guess I'll have to open that Interactive Brokers account even though I've got no idea if it's possible to transfer my holdings and cash at lesser cost?

blu3

20-11-2015, 01:07 PM

Please do not consider what follows as me discarding your advices about not buying when the market is going down nor as me lacking patience—I'm fine playing with the devil on a very small monetary risk, for experimental purposes.

Buy: TGR (ASX)

http://i.imgur.com/oLQHBGu.gif

I've been watching this one for about (only) a week, and been waiting to see if the price would break through the $4.4 resistance. It did it yesterday, with almost double volume from its daily average, and also broke through the $4.5 mark where a few sellers seemed to be aligned to take profits. Whatever happens, I'm happy already to have convinced myself to buy a stock at its all-time high, and I'm hoping for a true breakout of the SP as a reward! :)

Solid uptrend:
- +46% from its 52-week low
- all-time high (no overhead resistance)
- price > daily MA 50 > daily MA 150 > daily MA 200
- all MAs are pointing upwards
- higher highs and higher lows (but previous pullback to daily MA 50)
- large volume on up weeks
- DMI+ > DMI- on both weekly and daily charts
- MACD-H pointing up on both weekly and daily charts

Fundamentals showing growth (from the little I understand):
- recurring earnings: 309.79M (FY 2015, +16.19%), 266.631M (FY 2014, -2.26%), 272.805 M (FY 2013, +3.85%)
- NPAT: 49.992M (FY 2015, +21.75%), 41.061M (FY 2014, +22.73%), 33.457M (FY 2013, +19.12%)
- EPS: 0.34 (FY 2015, +21.5%), 0.28 (FY 2014, +22.56%), 0.23 (FY 2013, +19.1%)
- dividends: 0.14 (FY 2015, +21.74%), 0.12 (FY 2014, +22.56%), 0.1 (FY 2013, +18.75%)
- ROE: 13.39% (FY 2015), 12.01% (FY 2014), 10.6% (FY 2013)
- cash: 13.234M
- debt: 79.038M
- gearing ratio: 17.6%
- P/E: 13.29
- beat EPS estimates 3 years in a row: +10% (FY 2015), +9% (FY 2014), +24% (FY 2013)
- recent increase in EPS estimates for FY16: from 0.348 1 month ago to 0.355 (+2%)
- industry leaders (food/fisheries)

Catalysts:
- extension of supply contract with Woolworth for a further 3 years, and new contract to supply Aldi for 12 months. Announced on 30/06/2015 (pdf (http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150630/pdf/42zhlt8h1t454x.pdf)).
- acquisition of De Costi Seafoods to increase growth. Announced on 01/07/2015 (pdf (http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150701/pdf/42zjm61drd2shr.pdf)).
- barriers to entry (http://www.fool.com.au/2015/09/29/5-reasons-to-buy-tassal-group-limited), making it hard to compete against, except for HUO which is the second largest producer.
- demand growing in China (http://www.ibtimes.com.au/australia-increase-salmon-exports-china-1476756)?
- new ready-to-eat product (https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2015/11/16/tassal-lanches-skinless-boneless-can-snacking-range-in-coles/).

Risks:
- pressure from possible environmental impact due to planned growth in production but for now it seems to be heading in the right direction with Tassal's CEO winning the Richard Pratt Banksia CEO Award that recognizes sustainable/environmental efforts. Announced on 16/11/2015 (pdf (http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20151116/pdf/43303m6hkgp2zf.pdf)).
- warming climate leads to increasing chances of deseases (and losses) (https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/dont-get-hooked-tassal-0).
- probably much more :)

Trade strategy:
- entry price: $4.53
- stop price: $4.27 (-5.74%)
- target price: not really

The tight (manual) stop loss is in case the SP is currently going through a false breakout. I have no idea what to aim for a target price since there are no upside resistance from the current prices, but the idea is to let it run while probably setting a (manual) trailing stop loss.

ratkin

20-11-2015, 04:39 PM

The tight (manual) stop loss is in case the SP is currently going through a false breakout. I have no idea what to aim for a target price since there are no upside resistance from the current prices, but the idea is to let it run while probably setting a (manual) trailing stop loss.

Great effort, if you put that much effort into all your buys you will do well.
Personally i would have moved the stop lower, at around 3.98 to give the trade a chance to grow.
If this was a planned short term trade your stop might be fine, but for longer term trading i have found it is best to give more leeway.

It would be interesting to have other opinions on the stop for this one

blu3

20-11-2015, 07:31 PM

Personally i would have moved the stop lower, at around 3.98 to give the trade a chance to grow.
If this was a planned short term trade your stop might be fine, but for longer term trading i have found it is best to give more leeway.

In fact I initially defined this stop loss thinking that I would get in at around $4.4, which was even tighter than what it is now! :) I've indeed read that longer-term trades benefit from more relaxed stop losses, which is the type of trade that I'm hoping to perform, but the other reason for making it tight is the current riskier context, that is the overall S&P/ASX 200 being in a downtrend. My thinking is that I prefer taking a smaller loss and getting in again later on if the price goes back in the right direction. After all, the rule no. 1 is to never lose money, right? And everyone knows about the rule no. 2 :) But maybe I'm thinking about it the wrong way. What's sure is that I definitely find it hard to come up with such entry/exit prices—I've been doing it a bit too randomly so far.

I'm also looking forward to hear other strategies if anyone is willing to chip in!

Cheers!

blu3

20-11-2015, 07:33 PM

For a wrap-up of the week, TGR surely isn't off a good start with the price closing below the $4.5 mark, down all the way to $4.46 (-1.5%). I really need to work on my micro timings! As with my previous trades, I first checked the weekly charts to determine if it was an overall good time to get in, then the daily chart to try to find a more precise timing, but if I had instead looked at the intraday chart maybe I would have noticed the larger volumes on the way down and would have waited to see what would have happened next. Lesson learned.

As for GEM, it went all the way up to $3.71 to finish the week at $3.61, which makes it for a +8% gain in total since my entry point at $3.34 from 2 weeks ago. I took the chance to tighten up my stop loss at $3.48 to secure a positive outcome, as little as it might be—it's good for the moral :)

Baa_Baa

20-11-2015, 08:23 PM

snip ...

Buy: TGR (ASX)

http://i.imgur.com/oLQHBGu.gif

... waiting to see if the price would break through the $4.4 resistance. It did it yesterday, with almost double volume from its daily average, and also broke through the $4.5 mark where a few sellers seemed to be aligned to take profits. ... endsnip

Couple of comments blu3, nice to see the detail in your analysis. You say volume was twice average but the chart seems to say it was about the same as recent volume, where's the average line? You say resistance 4.4 but it looks like a breakout of resistance at 4.25 from the previous day close at 4.3. Also buying where you have observed that Asks/sellers emerge .. is that what you had in mind? It looks like a momentum trade on a breakout but perhaps a really tight stop at say 4.50 which will get you out quickly if this is a fake out and sellers take over ... if it isn't (great) and you ride up the curve, can you set a 'trailing stop' or is your platform only able to take manual stop adjustments?

ratkin

20-11-2015, 08:41 PM

In fact I initially defined this stop loss thinking that I would get in at around $4.4, which was even tighter than what it is now! :) I've indeed read that longer-term trades benefit from more relaxed stop losses, which is the type of trade that I'm hoping to perform, but the other reason for making it tight is the current riskier context, that is the overall S&P/ASX 200 being in a downtrend. My thinking is that I prefer taking a smaller loss and getting in again later on if the price goes back in the right direction. After all, the rule no. 1 is to never lose money, right? And everyone knows about the rule no. 2 :) But maybe I'm thinking about it the wrong way. What's sure is that I definitely find it hard to come up with such entry/exit prices—I've been doing it a bit too randomly so far.

I'm also looking forward to hear other strategies if anyone is willing to chip in!

Cheers!

Yeah stops are always tricky, have you had a look at Atr stops, they can be quite useful. For long term trades around 3 times average true range seems to work well, even as much as four times ATR. They gradually move up as they price rises , while never moving down.

Personally i prefer going under previous support, especially below whole numbers like in this case 4. I dont have my software with me right now, but i suspect an ATR stop would be a fair bit further away from the price action than yours.

All my back testing on weekly systems have always performed better with a more generous stop than a close one, but i guess every chart is different.

Baa_Baa

20-11-2015, 09:04 PM

Yeah stops are always tricky, have you had a look at Atr stops, they can be quite useful. For long term trades around 3 times average true range seems to work well, even as much as four times ATR. They gradually move up as they price rises , while never moving down.

Personally i prefer going under previous support, especially below whole numbers like in this case 4. I dont have my software with me right now, but i suspect an ATR stop would be a fair bit further away from the price action than yours.

All my back testing on weekly systems have always performed better with a more generous stop than a close one, but i guess every chart is different.

These are very good points ratkin, I'm just wondering whether blu3 might have cleverly bought into a clear chart breakout (nicely spotted) but at a point that sellers have previously exercised, in which case a really tight stop would hopefully get out without any serious damage. Reality may be that a reversal might require an 'at market' sell as a stop loss limit price sell could be overwhelmed. If the SP continues to run up, then I agree completely, to relax the stops back to ATR. I'm looking at the very next trading day which will determine whether the entry buy was a good decision or whether a quick exit is better. That said, I'm assuming this is pure trading, make money or get out at minimal losses.

blu3

20-11-2015, 09:35 PM

Thanks for your feedbacks, Baa_Baa!

You say volume was twice average but the chart seems to say it was about the same as recent volume, where's the average line?

The chart above is the weekly chart but I did refer to “double volume from its daily average” in my comment, sorry for the confusion. But yeah, nothing too exciting volume-wise around the $4.4-$4.5 mark on the weekly chart (yet?).

You say resistance 4.4 but it looks like a breakout of resistance at 4.25 from the previous day close at 4.3.

I do see the breakout at $4.25 but thought of $4.4 as another one because two weekly candlesticks had their high bouncing off from it. Doesn't this count as a resistance level?

Also buying where you have observed that Asks/sellers emerge .. is that what you had in mind?

What I had in mind is very simple—I was concerned about buying below $4.5 seeing that there was some possible resistance levels above so I preferred to put more chances on my side by waiting for a breakout. Now, I guess the challenge is to figure out if this is actually a true breakout or not, and I most probably failed that part but I did set a tight selling price to cover me from my lack of expertise and my willingness to take risks :) Once again, I've been applying for this trade my current “much less than 1% rule”, so there's no big worries to have if this goes the wrong way (but if the price abruptly plunges while being away from my laptop since I need to perform my stop losses manually).

It looks like a momentum trade on a breakout but perhaps a really tight stop at say 4.50 which will get you out quickly if this is a fake out and sellers take over ...

Upon checking the definition of momentum trading, I guess this is mostly accurate at the exception that I intend to hold position on the longer-term and that I'm trying to backup my choices with some fundamentals showing growth.

if it isn't (great) and you ride up the curve, can you set a 'trailing stop' or is your platform only able to take manual stop adjustments?

I'm using Direct Broking at the moment so it's all manual work. I've created a spreadsheet to help me with the process though. For example, I have a “range” column that turns more and more red as it gets nearer to the selling price. And green the other way around. Below is an example for my trades for GEM and TGR, using an hypothetical share count of 1234 for each.

http://i.imgur.com/OsEjqZU.gif

Also, before anyone asks, the “price” column is being updated automatically :)

Yeah stops are always tricky, have you had a look at Atr stops, they can be quite useful.

I did read about ATR somewhere (and just now again) but I can't find it neither on BigCharts, nor Yahoo Finance, nor on ft.com, so I guess that I will have to pass for now.

If the general consensus is to loosen the stop loss a bit for this trade, then I'll give it a thought. But really, I'm a bit concerned as I see this trade as “risky” according to the context and I definitely would not want to risk much more money for what is supposed to only be a little experiment.

blu3

20-11-2015, 10:44 PM

Also, I guess that everyone already have their way of doing it, but for the ones who know how to run a Python script, here's a (very simple) piece of code that I use to get a preview for a trade that I want to make.

Basically, it takes the entry/stop/target prices, the trading fees, the maximum risk (including the trading fees), as well as an optional maximum cost, and it returns how many shares it is possible to buy, the relative and absolute gain/loss if reaching the target/stop prices, what price should be hit before being profitable (because of the trading fees), and the costs.

#!/usr/bin/env python

_DATA = {
'entry_price': 12.34,
'stop_price': 11.87,
'target_price': 18.5,
'trading_fees': 2 * 29,
'maximum_risk': 123,
# 'maximum_cost': 1234
}

def main():
entry_price = _DATA['entry_price']
stop_price = _DATA['stop_price']
target_price = _DATA['target_price']
trading_fees = _DATA['trading_fees']
maximum_risk = _DATA['maximum_risk']

share_count = int((maximum_risk - trading_fees) /
(entry_price - stop_price))
cost = share_count * entry_price
if 'maximum_cost' in _DATA:
cost = min(cost, _DATA['maximum_cost']) - trading_fees

share_count = int(cost / entry_price)
cost = entry_price * share_count
total_cost = cost + trading_fees

profit_price = entry_price * (total_cost / cost)

stop_percentage = (stop_price - entry_price) * 100 / entry_price
target_percentage = (target_price - entry_price) * 100 / entry_price
stop_difference = (stop_price - entry_price) * share_count
target_difference = (target_price - entry_price) * share_count

print('entry price: %.2f' % (entry_price))
print('stop price: %.2f (%.2f%%, %.2f)' %
(stop_price, stop_percentage, stop_difference))
print('target price: %.2f (%.2f%%, %.2f)' %
(target_price, target_percentage, target_difference))
print('profit price: %.2f' % (profit_price))
print('share count: %d' % (share_count))
print('cost: %.2f' % (cost))
print('total cost: %.2f' % (total_cost))
return

if __name__ == "__main__":
main()

With the data provided in the snippet above, including a maximum risk of $123, this is what will be printed out:

entry price: 12.34
stop price: 11.87 (-3.81%, -64.86)
target price: 18.50 (49.92%, 850.08)
profit price: 12.76
share count: 138
cost: 1702.92
total cost: 1760.92

If one does not want to spend more than say $1234 for this trade, it's just a matter of uncommenting the 9th line with “maximum_risk” in it. In this case, the result becomes:

entry price: 12.34
stop price: 11.87 (-3.81%, -44.65)
target price: 18.50 (49.92%, 585.20)
profit price: 12.95
share count: 95
cost: 1172.30
total cost: 1230.30

May it be useful to someone even though I doubt it! :)

Hoop

21-11-2015, 12:29 AM

Nice stock pick Blu3...A TA friendly stock...those are the ones we want as it gives us confidence that TGR will continue to behave nicely...
A couple of comments before I went mad with the chart below.
1...It's not a wrong thing to do but using weekly charts for entry timing seems unusual as it could result in a late entry...The only times I use weekly charts is to cut the noise out if I have a charting conflict such as not sure which way the trend is going or the stock is too volatile to make much sense on a daily chart...Also use weekly charts for longer term analysis..(see first chart below)
2...Usually with longer term charts and using weekly periods, if there is a wide oscillation then a Log chart is preferred as the percentage price perspective is kept in proportion..(Paper Tiger would be proud of me :))

I've added a nother couple of charts...
First Chart..when mucking around with the charting program it's always good practice to look at the bigger picture...The first thing you will notice with the 11 year weekly log chart is that TGR seems to have a cyclical type behaviour and the present price is right at the top of the cycle..The cyclical/primary resistance seems to be approx 4.23 area so it seems TGR has broken that resistance which is very good news.....AIR supporters reading this post must now be very envious..eh?..
The not so good news ..TGR behaves as a cyclical stock...and I assume Salmon does go off the menu when economic times get tough...Therefore a chartist or TAist when investing in any cyclical type stock has to apply strict discipline, much more strict than non-cyclical stocks...therefore one must!!!! act and act quickly on any TGR sell signals...
Looking at the long term cycle oscillation, there is not enough data yet, but there's a hint that the oscillation may have an upward tilt...If this the case then TGR is not a true cyclical stock but maybe a growth stock with cyclical type behaviour...Still, as with all cyclical type stocks they rise higher than the market during good economic times making them a good investment...but during poor economic times they perform badly and are portfolio destroyers...True cyclical stocks have no overall growth which makes them lousy long term buy and holds..It seems TGR will give the TAist good warning before the quick wave down commences (see second chart)

Second Chart..TGR being such a well behaved stock, I decided to apply a lot of charting knowledge at TGR, the stock behaving in such a textbook fashion it would make a great educational piece...I could've added a lot more if space allowed.......Don't throw you arms up in the air when looking at the cluttered chart just work you way slowly through it and google what you don't understand...also..the pattern site (Bulkowski) (http://thepatternsite.com/) and investopedia (http://www.investopedia.com/categories/technicalanalysis.asp) will help too..

I will mention my reason for tight stops....Blu3...a good reason to switch to daily candlestick charts is so a chartist can observe gaps...Gaps are valuable to a chartist as they make very reliable points when drawing S&R lines (support & resistance)....Gaps also seem to appear around certain price areas...you can see some of those areas mark on my chart.. The gaps in play at the moment are the 2 around the 4.10 and 4.23 (old cyclic top) area...Many "experts" say Gap upwards don't necessarily gap downwards but from my experience many do..so I'm always got that in my mind when buying those shares and my initial stops happen to be set in the same price area that has gaps ...I apply conservatism...

TGR having cyclical type behaviour will also have charted Gap behaviour now and in the future... so treat gaps as a normal event for TGR...
On my chart I have listed some gaps...illustrating when they open and then get filled....there are are other gap examples but I haven't written them on the chart as the chart is cluttered enough...

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/tgr%2019112015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/tgr%2019112015.png.html)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TGR%2020112015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/TGR%2020112015.png.html)

ratkin

21-11-2015, 07:01 AM

So far we have
Blu3 stop at 4.27
Ratkin Stop at 3.98
Hoop stop at 4.23?
Baa Baa stop at 4.50? Already out

or am i totally wrong about Hoop and Baa Baa stops

Baa_Baa

21-11-2015, 10:31 AM

So far we have
Blu3 stop at 4.27
Ratkin Stop at 3.98
Hoop stop at 4.23?
Baa Baa stop at 4.50? Already out

or am i totally wrong about Hoop and Baa Baa stops

Yep, looks like I'm out with my ultra defensive stop loss, my total loss $97.02 (inc brokerage) or 0.66% of trade, with $5493 left to fight another day. Can I buy back in again if it comes back to test the breakout, or lower? Lol ;)

Actually, looking at my favoured weekly chart 10/14EMA SP cross, for strong trending stocks, this was a buy in early July and still holding.

Hoop

21-11-2015, 12:41 PM

So far we have
Blu3 stop at 4.27
Ratkin Stop at 3.98
Hoop stop at 4.23?
Baa Baa stop at 4.50? Already out

or am i totally wrong about Hoop and Baa Baa stops

Nope your right with my 4.23 stop set if I enter now..

you are probably wondering why its so high...
Normally Ratkin (and I could get talked into changing it to 3.98).. I would be with you on the 3.98. Can't argue with you there as the 3.98 price has the best reasons for a stop..Its just under the bull bear line at $4.03, there's that psychological 4.00 as you mentioned, and you set the stops just below those supports using the "sell near resistance/buy near support" rule. Referring to my chart I also contradict myself (tight stop 4.23) ..the most common sailing strategy is the buy and hold strategy which is recommended until the Bull cycle dies which, using charting, occurs at the break of the bull/bear line presently at 4.03...[some may argue using MA200 line instead, currently at 3.67 (-20% ish)]

I've mentioned with my previous posts (incl AIR thread) why I'm presently too conservative when dealing with cyclical type stocks...
..to add..buying into cyclical type stocks a long way up their oscillation cycle simply gives me the willies...Buying in at these oscillation levels makes little sense when looking at the risk/reward benefits and it's doesn't look very attractive buying in with a long term view in mind..

...but, charting-wise I'm really optimistic as TGR is a well behaved stock and I don't see any past (historic) throwbacks breaking more than one level of support so the chances are very much in my favour that that my stop won't be hit within TGR's present bull cycle...(now watch it happen against the odds and prove me wrong:)).

blu3

21-11-2015, 04:37 PM

Hoop, I am really grateful for you taking the time to share your analysis with us! I've been trying to go through your chart and understand as much as I could but I don't think that I will be able to come up with such a detailled analysis in my upcoming picks—it seems so easy to miss things! Hopefully I will get there one day.

I do always look at the “all data” charts to get an idea of what has been happening with a stock but shamefully the cyclical type of this one didn't strike me. Thinking of it, I guess the cyclical conclusion can only be taken if backed up by the type of the industry, and indeed it makes sense when knowing that salmon can go off the menu as you say. My intent was definitely to pick a growth stock, based on the fundamentals and the catalysts that I have outlined, so hopefully it will fit in your “growth with cyclical behaviour” category :)

It's funny that you're pointing out a cup and handle pattern because it has been described in the book “Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard” with “obvious” illustrated examples, but even though they were clearly highlighted in the book, I still couldn't see them... and yours is no exception. Where am I supposed to see anything like a cup and a handle here?? I can't see anything having that shape in the area that you've marked?

Thanks for pointing out the gaps, I guess that's the easiest to pickup here while being apparently quite a useful indicator. From what I understand, the one in July with an extreme volume is a breakaway gap, then it's hard to tell if the 2 last ones are runaway, exhaustion, or even island gaps. The island gap can't be interpreted just now since we'd need to wait for a downward gap (need to monitor this!), as for the other ones I'd pick the runaway one since the volumes were high but not extreme neither as per the previous breakout gap. If we see these 2 latest gaps being filled, this would be worrysome and could indicate a reversal, right? That being said, can the latest gap that you've pointed out be really considered as one? It seems that the candlesticks shadows are not forming a gap?

Just to clear up things about stop losses, what is supposed to represent their price? Am I right thinking that a stop price should be placed at a level where one would expect the price to go much lower if reached? In your example, hitting $4.23 would mean that the support at $4.26 has been broken through and that you'd expect the price to freefall towards the next support level at around $4, which is a larger risk (possible loss) that you are not willing to take? Also, if the support level is at $4.26, is it really enough to place a stop only a few cents below it at $4.23? Couldn't it be triggered too promptly due to intraday noise?

In any case, your analysis being much more convincing than mine, I have updated my stop price to $4.23, which isn't increasing much my risk anyways, so thank you again!

And finally... did you guys really buy that stock? I thought that I've made the disclaimer clear in my first post! :) Next time, you should definitely take into account in your analysis that I've been pretty good at picking losers in the past (and most likely still am) :D

ratkin

21-11-2015, 05:50 PM

And finally... did you guys really buy that stock? I thought that I've made the disclaimer clear in my first post! :) Next time, you should definitely take into account in your analysis that I've been pretty good at picking losers in the past (and most likely still am) :D

I havent actually bought it, as im technically still in my no buy zone, althouh admit i was going to pick up a few K worth on friday just for the heck of it, but noticed the price was down and thought i would wait and see what is does over the next few days.

That clear stop at 3.98 was partly what attracted me to it, really like to buy ones that have a very solid stop point to wprk with, makes it easier to pull the trigger if it goes wrong

I have owned Tassel before, quite a few years ago now , probably about ten. They made me money then so have a bit of a soft spot for them.

Hoop, you say Tassel is cyclical, and it may have behaved like that at times, but i think there a case for putting in the growth category, although its one of those in between types

blu3

23-11-2015, 12:49 AM

Watching: TIL (NZX)

Technical Analysis

http://i.imgur.com/3CWoYGp.gif

- +238% from its 52-week low
- all-time high (no overhead resistance)
- price > daily MA 50 > daily MA 150 > daily MA 200
- all MAs are pointing upwards
- higher highs and higher lows
- large volume on up weeks but some fair ones on down weeks/days too
- DMI+ > DMI- on both weekly and daily charts
- MACD-H pointing up on both weekly and daily charts
- just went through 2 upward gaps in a week

Fundamental Analysis

Disclaimer 1: I have been picking some numbers from the reports and computed some others without really knowing what I have been doing. The chances are big of having made all sort of errors. DYOC (do your own computations).
Disclaimer 2: I'm not too sure how to interpret all these numbers but I'd bet this is pointing towards the early stages of some serious growth.

FY 2015
FY 2014
FY 2013

revenue
36.6 (+23.01%)

29.754 (+11.58%)
26.666 (+17.79%)

net income
4.523 (+322.71%)
1.07 (+3047.06%)
0.034 (+115.6%)

net profit margin
12.36% (+243.64%)

3.6% (+2720.44%)
0.13% (+113.24%)

EPS
0.07 (+250%)

0.02 (+inf)
0 (+inf)

ROE
16.61%

4.66%
0.16%

cash
2.67 (+55.43%)
1.19 (+7.2%)
1.11 (-41.7%)

debt
1.6 (-64.44%)
4.5 (-31.57%)
6.576 (-18.98%)

inventories (finished goods)
2.916 (+40.12%)
2.081 (-33.62%)
3.135 (+22.56%)

Note 1: the percentages in the table below reflect the changes from the previous half year results, not the changes with the corresponding half year from the prior year. Maybe it would have been more judicious the other way around since the sale revenues seem to be relatively cyclical?
Note 2: The numbers for the H1 2016 come from the company's guidance, with/without their recent acquisition.
Note 3: The H1 2016 guidance for the net income actually seems to point to their net profit before income tax so I subtracted 10.6% out of the numbers, which was the ratio of taxes applied during H1 2015.
Note 4: I guess the net profit margin for H1 2016 is a bit meaningless without subtracting the price of the acquisition to focus solely on the recurring sales? In fact, maybe the formula “net profit margin = net income / revenue” could potentially gain from being revised to isolate better the core activities?

H1 2016
H2 2015
H1 2015
H2 2014

revenue
24 (+111.6%) / 75
11.342 (-25.67%)
15.258 (-5.72%)
16.183 (+19.25%)

net income
4.29 (+21.22%) / 8.94
3.539 (+259.65%)
0.984 (-26.51%)
1.339 (+597.77%)

net profit margin
17.88% (-42.69%) / 11.92%
31.2% (+383.72%)
6.45% (-22%)
8.27% (+517.68%)

EPS
0.07 (+40%) / ??
0.05 (+150%)
0.02 (+inf)
0

As for the P/E, it's currently at 27.17 and a first dividend has been announced!
Some new records might be on their way for H2 2016 since H1 seems to be a weaker period?

Context

For what it's worth, TIL's share price didn't seem to be much influenced during the small pullback of the S&P/NZX 50 between August and September.

Catalysts

- acquisition of cosmetics importer and distributor, CS Company. Announced on 18/08/2015(pdf (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/218638.pdf)).
- new products development as a factor of growth.
- new distribution channels in the US.
- institutions buying: Tea Custodians Limited doubled their stake during FY 2015, Pie Funds Management Limited recently secured the 3rd spot (I believe) in the shareholder list with a serie of buyings since September. More to come?

Worries

- to be honest I'm not sure how such products can sustain growth for an extended period of time but that's probably because I know nothing of this industry. Hopefully I'll learn soon enough.
- I don't get why the sales for the Ecoya section dropped by 91.5% in the US for FY 2015?

Conclusion

In short, I feel like a nice uptrend driven by growth is forming but it all seems a bit too risky at the moment. Especially after such a quick +22% price raise during the past 2 weeks instead of showing a nice price development, and that obvious stop loss to be put around the $2 mark, from which it would be easy to be shaken out by big investors. Instead I would like to see some consolidation and pullbacks, with possibly a Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP ©Mark Minvervini), showing signs of institutional accumulation that could push the price much higher.

The truth is that I was about to take a small bet by getting in but I instead decided to test my discipline on this one after reading some more of “Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard”. My convictions being shaky, I might be convinced to try my luck—which I will probably do soon enough on other stocks anyways :)

Note that I'm not saying that the price won't go higher anytime soon (like if I could predict it anyways!), but the idea for me here is to reduce the risks by waiting for a more optimal entry point configuration instead of having my stop loss being triggered too easily. I guess many here are already happy with their current gains though, so congratulations and best luck!

ratkin

24-11-2015, 01:58 PM

Happy days, for the first time since May i am permitted buying on trading system ASX Finally has CC1 20 finally above zero, as can be seen on the chart
Have taken the opprtunity to actually buy Tassel. In at 4.55 stop at 3.97

7742

blu3

01-12-2015, 03:14 PM

For the little story, GEM hit twice my updated stop loss price of $3.48 while I was not in front of my screen and so I couldn't trigger the sell order. Being in the middle of a move and seeing that the price was being a bit too erratic for someone not so available, I finally decided to sell yesterday at $3.48 for a meaningless profit. And of course today the price is rallying and has hit the $3.65 mark so far! I had a feeling that this could happen seeing the fairly strong support at $3.48 during the previous days... oh well :)

blu3

18-12-2015, 03:03 PM

I ended up doing the guinea pig by transferring my ASX portfolio over to Interactive Brokers, and it all went super smoothly. I opened a margin account there, giving me access to shorting, and defined the base currency to NZD. This allowed me to transfer cash directly from my NZ bank account over to their NZ bank, to then handle all the currency conversions directly within IB. As for my ASX shares, since I didn't subscribe for CHESS I simply had to send them the SRN number for each holding, and a couple of days later they were showing up in my account. Much more straightforward than what I imagined.

One disappointment being that their market screener for the ASX requires subscribing to some extra data which is not free. So I'm still on the lookout for some free screeners for the ASX (and NZX). Apparently it's possible to open an account with CommSec for this purpose, without having to pay anything nor having the obligation to execute any trade, but I wasn't elligible as a resident from Europe.

On a side note, is there no petition to sign yet to bring back Paper Tiger and KW? Maybe are they hiding on another forum? We still have much to learn from them, we can't afford losing their tracks!

ratkin

22-01-2016, 03:08 PM

Time for an update, seems i am the only one left in
Blu3 stop at 4.27
Ratkin Stop at 3.98
Hoop stop at 4.23?
Baa Baa stop at 4.50? Already out

It has been a few months now and the trade is still hanging in there, looking like it might close on an all time high today. Here is the updated chart. Have moved the stop up to 4.38, as this is a longer term trade, dont want to risk being stopped out just because the market has a panic attack
7842

Hoop

23-01-2016, 05:08 PM

Time for an update, seems i am the only one left in
Blu3 stop at 4.27
Ratkin Stop at 3.98
Hoop stop at 4.23?
Baa Baa stop at 4.50? Already out

I confused:confused:..........I'm still in......and I would assume Blu3 is too????..............the lowest it got after buying in was 4.39... my entry stop back in Nov 21st was set at 4.23...
As with you my stops rise when other supports are added to the uptrend ..so I'm the same as you, about $4.38 that's 1/2c below the second lowest support... being the 4.40 support..

ratkin

24-01-2016, 05:01 AM

I confused:confused:..........I'm still in......and I would assume Blu3 is too????..............the lowest it got after buying in was 4.39... my entry stop back in Nov 21st was set at 4.23...
As with you my stops rise when other supports are added to the uptrend ..so I'm the same as you, about $$.38 that's 1/2c below the second lowest support... being the 4.40 support..

Good stuff, pleased to see you have your stop and reasoning the same as my own, gives me confidence have done it right. Think blu got out but not sure

blu3

24-01-2016, 03:18 PM

Good stuff, pleased to see you have your stop and reasoning the same as my own, gives me confidence have done it right. Think blu got out but not sure

I'm not out yet, I did set my stop at $4.23 following Hoop's recommandations.

And I enjoy making a fool of myself on a daily basis regarding my previous analysis leading me to not buy TIL at $2.2.

blu3

28-01-2016, 09:24 PM

ratkin

29-01-2016, 04:43 AM

So far TGR has been doing not too bad despite of the not so gloomy global context. I'm being at +12% at the moment and I'm wondering when it would be a good idea to update my stop loss to not give it all back. Any idea?

Dont have my chart in fromt of me, but now that it has made another new high it would be a good time to move the stop up to around 4.48 just under the low of a couple of weeks ago

blu3

01-02-2016, 08:59 PM

Oh well... in 2 days it almost went back to my buying point of $4.53... surely this one likes to swing!

ratkin

01-02-2016, 09:13 PM

Oh well... in 2 days it almost went back to my buying point of $4.53... surely this one likes to swing!

Not sure whats going on there. Stops in danger now, hopefully just far away to be safe

Baa_Baa

01-02-2016, 09:36 PM

Not sure whats going on there. Stops in danger now, hopefully just far away to be safe Tough couple of days. On my weekly chart 4.52 is the 14EMA trigger sell, above the 4.40 support and below the 4.48 suggested stop loss .. which would exit blu3 at a small loss, but better than getting savaged by a larger fall to supports at 4.40 or 4.00 below that. I think we might have just all been late to this party, but a very good lesson in stop losses if it continues to cave in. Who knows, it might bounce off supports ... has anything fundamentally broken? (I don't follow this stock).

ratkin

05-02-2016, 05:41 PM

Tough couple of days. On my weekly chart 4.52 is the 14EMA trigger sell, above the 4.40 support and below the 4.48 suggested stop loss .. which would exit blu3 at a small loss, but better than getting savaged by a larger fall to supports at 4.40 or 4.00 below that. I think we might have just all been late to this party, but a very good lesson in stop losses if it continues to cave in. Who knows, it might bounce off supports ... has anything fundamentally broken? (I don't follow this stock).

Oh well , thats me stopped out

Baa_Baa

05-02-2016, 07:34 PM

Entry was $4.53, close $4.36, I think everyone is out now on today's rout (looks like a retest coming of the double high '08 / '14 breakout). Did anyone make money? Who lost the least money?
;)

Looking at the course of trades, it seems that the algo's got hold of this around 3pm (Oz time) with a whole series of very small trades, so not a line wipe on the bids, but more a progressive sell down by automated trades. Just a hypothesis looking into the trading data for today.

The effect is similar, it wiped a lot of the bid line. Still a good lesson in stops .. this was progressive selling, so a trigger placement of the stop loss might have got you out in reality, depending of how far below your stops was, but a line wipe would have possibly kept you in, wondering why you'd not been sold into the rout.

It's not simple buy, place stop, exit .. is it?

blu3

05-02-2016, 09:49 PM

Looks like I've jinxed it... it went on my book from +12% to -4% in a week. But I'm still in for some more losses until $4.23!

Hoop

06-02-2016, 01:15 AM

...
It's not simple buy, place stop, exit .. is it?

......Looking at the course of trades, it seems that the algo's got hold of this around 3pm (Oz time) with a whole series of very small trades, so not a line wipe on the bids, but more a progressive sell down by automated trades. Just a hypothesis looking into the trading data for today.......

Yes it is simple...Unfortunately people of the world are more educated nowadays and using false logic think "the more complicated the more efficient (successful) rule"... This has become a world of overthinking which end up complicating the issue beyond all reasoning and complicating themselves in the process...The ol saying "Can't see the wood for the trees"....Eh!! That's where charts are helpful it's easy to see the wood....Remember TGA is a TA friendly stock...the exit price is there for all to see..Pick a red arrow better still exit on a cluster of red arrows...even the 6th February trading day (chart insert) was TA inspired ...When its happening and don't trust an isolated red arrow or two, sell just below broken support (usually just below the second support)..some investors use the -10% rule or if your charting program has free ATM indicators your stop out life is easier....however I find it a lot more fun picking my own stops...:)
It doesn't matter which method(s) one uses...the objective is to get out and not being caught in a stock and lose/evaporate profits ...You can't expect your portfolio to beat the market if it contains stocks with red ink above -15% so using stops prevents having a portfolio full of losers forcing you to adopt the buy and hope method..

By the way..I'm still in:D...why?? My holding is small, using manual stop and I was away today and had no interest to check the markets as most of my portfolio is cash...never mind Sh1t happens....(Hoop breaking discipline is becoming a bad habit :( didn't sell AIR last Friday either..)

This previous TGR weakness seems to be from the selling down by The National Australia Bank and associates....I guess the Aussi Bear might have caught up with the fund and investors are quitting..maybe they are still selling down??!!..

Anyway I haven't got much to lose (relative) with TGR so I may break discipline as my investing life is boring atm.

If I had sold out (4.38) I would put TGR on my watchlist (because it is TA friendly) and be waiting to re-enter ..so there are some areas to watch..
The good news..
Using the Fib retrace from the start of the up trend..38.2% happens to be at 4.35..That's nice :)..
There's a weak support at 4.30 (not marked on the chart) and its showing up on the depth...
However the bad news is the 4.40 is a S&R resistance + EMA100 :(..and..
The SD(2) channel has broken down.
The next big line of defense is $4.00
Then the 61.8% Fib + S&R zone at $3.85
The AORD's is in a TA Bear market cycle so shouldn't be buying anything...full stop!! (not yet the FA official -20%)

So realistically even at $4.36 the odds are still against me... the best I can hope for is a pullback to retest the last break 4.50 so lets see what happens on Monday whether/when I sell.
Time to stop my rant (setting a bad example for this thread) and have a cup of coffee..

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TGR%2005022016.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/TGR%2005022016.png.html)

blu3

10-02-2016, 01:10 AM

setting a bad example for this thread

Please do not say such an absurd thing again—I'm looking forward to read as many rants from you as possible! :)

I have been a bit distant from the stock market recently and didn't follow closely what happened to TGR but, even if I did, I probably wouldn't have sold anyways. That's because I don't have your analytical skills yet, and wouldn't have picked all these red arrows (except the MA crossings), as obvious as you think they might be. But I'll get there, eventually!

Now, TA aside, I'm really wondering what has been happening here—is it all due to the currenly weak global markets or did I miss something directly related to TGR?

In any case, my stop loss finally triggered and I'm out. As of now I'm mostly holding cash (~95%) and am only holding a couple of highly spec stocks which are not performing well at all (PRR at -58% and CDY at -42%). Apart of these, which were in the red much before I started to think of using cutting loss strategies, and for which I've got no idea what to do with now, I think I'll stay on the sidelines for a while until the markets start to settle a bit and show signs of better health.

ratkin

11-02-2016, 03:00 PM

Please do not say such an absurd thing again—I'm looking forward to read as many rants from you as possible! :)

I have been a bit distant from the stock market recently and didn't follow closely what happened to TGR but, even if I did, I probably wouldn't have sold anyways. That's because I don't have your analytical skills yet, and wouldn't have picked all these red arrows (except the MA crossings), as obvious as you think they might be. But I'll get there, eventually!

Now, TA aside, I'm really wondering what has been happening here—is it all due to the currenly weak global markets or did I miss so. Good omething directly related to TGR?

In any case, my stop loss finally triggered and I'm out. As of now I'm mostly holding cash (~95%) and am only holding a couple of highly spec stocks which are not performing well at all (PRR at -58% and CDY at -42%). Apart of these, which were in the red much before I started to think of using cutting loss strategies, and for which I've got no idea what to do with now, I think I'll stay on the sidelines for a while until the markets start to settle a bit and show signs of better health.

Tgr turned into a great example of why you should take the stop loss when it happens. Turns out the half year report wasnt up to scratch, and one has to wonder how mNy knew in advance as technically the stock was perforing great until about ten days ago, then the slide started.
Quite pleased with myself for getting out in time, but yet another example of why the market just cant be trusted this days, full of crooks

Hoop

12-02-2016, 01:13 AM

Yep...It seems we're all out.. and back on my watchlist
The stock rose during the last global down wave, Blu3...so yes Ratkin it does seem like the TA support breaks were mostly due to insider trading influences..This pleb wondered why TGR tanked and now I know why.... Unfortunately I was a little late to exit but not too much of a loss..better late than never they say:).

TA worked a treat

ratkin

12-02-2016, 02:40 PM

Baa_Baa

12-02-2016, 02:55 PM

The good thing is, now that we know its a stock which moves on insider trading (most seem too) it should become easier to spot when something good is about to happen

How can you be so sure it's insider trading? The ASX generally has been hammered, it could just be market sentiment compounded by the weaker report than expected, after building up in anticipation of a good report. Anyway, interested in your insights on insider trading.

blu3

12-02-2016, 04:38 PM

How can you be so sure it's insider trading?

We're living in a world where such things seem to be commonplace.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/irrc-reveals-25-us-public-m-deals-involve-insider-trading-1453015

arc

19-02-2016, 01:54 PM

Baa_Baa

20-02-2016, 08:50 PM

Anyone care to share how they handle their stop-loss scenarios... The market is so all over the place that stop loss as a % seems to me to be almost a variable thing depending on which share it is applied to.

Text book cases just dont seem to apply these days and personally I think the drastic effects of High Frequency Trading and its associated 25% of all trades displayed on the systems actually being a sham and designed to not actually trigger unless certain conditions are met (which never are) , is fundamentally another spoke in the wheel of present global economic troubles.
http://infinitas.co/img.lib/1-1.jpg

@arc have look back a few posts, ratkin outlined Average True Range (ATR) which is a calculable method and some charting packages automate it and variants. Because of this I have incorporated it into my 'growth' (strong trend) trade strategies, so belated thanks to ratkin for that. Hoop suggested an approach as well with manual adjustments. My approach was overly simple as I just wanted out of this instantly if the price dropped as I had very low conviction on the entry. I'm not sure who lost the least or if anyone made a gain.

Hoop

21-04-2016, 12:03 PM

Is our TA friendly stock Tgr bottoming out ???

Hoop

16-05-2016, 01:47 PM

.....

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TGR%2005022016.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/TGR%2005022016.png.html)

21st April 2016 post..TGR was at $3.93

Is our TA friendly stock Tgr bottoming out ???

Today 16th May 2016
I bought in at 4.14 today at opening... In hindsight.. I should've waited to see which way the market was heading ..now 4.095..another!! poor timing re-entry :( I must brush up my act in this department....

Anyway I"m in for another play..lets see what happens this time:cool:

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TGR%2013052016.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/TGR%2013052016.png.html)

Snow Leopard

16-05-2016, 03:23 PM

Hoop

16-05-2016, 06:45 PM

Yes the joys of short-term fluctuations - something I own as had a 5.1% price variation so far today and is currently down 0.5% on yesterdays close.

Presumably you have some sort of initial stop-loss in mind for this trade?

As an aside, the latest version of the Tiger Technicals Filter has not flagged this as worth looking at yet, it likes the price action and the dividends, but is wary of short term volume.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Yeah PT fluctuations...actually a bit of accidental good news I put 4.14 for the buy price at opening and just noticed I got them for 4.13....I'm a cent better off :t_up::p.
Yes I have stops in mind.. usually below either the first or second support down... Currently the second support down is a 3.75/3.85 zone which is a little more than -10%, that's just outside my comfortable limit.. but 3.95 seems too close and a big risk to being whipsawed out...I will play it as I see it on the day..
Actually stop/loss actions got a good mentioned earlier on in this thread.

Hoop

31-05-2016, 01:10 PM

Yeah PT fluctuations...actually a bit of accidental good news I put 4.14 for the buy price at opening and just noticed I got them for 4.13....I'm a cent better off :t_up::p.
Yes I have stops in mind.. usually below either the first or second support down... Currently the second support down is a 3.75/3.85 zone which is a little more than -10%, that's just outside my comfortable limit.. but 3.95 seems too close and a big risk to being whipsawed out...I will play it as I see it on the day..
Actually stop/loss actions got a good mentioned earlier on in this thread.

TGR still being a friendly TA stock..The fall stopped within my comfort zone between the 2 supports (one broke)..Mistiming my buy in made my stop below the 2nd support break rather uncomfortable..TGR being TA friendly I was counting on the fall to be a throwback to test the breakout point and TGR did exactly that...nice :)

If TGR behaves it "should" rally to $4.40

Currently at $4.18

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TGR%2030052016.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/TGR%2030052016.png.html)

Hoop

10-07-2016, 09:14 PM

Tassal Group closed at $4.30 Friday a gain of +4.1% from my entry point.....

On my chart it has risen up above 1 maybe 2 S&R lines so it is time to reset my stop values...
I'm working off a break of the 2nd lower S&R line for my manual stop...so the new stop is just below 4.05... and if the tentative S&R line (dotted orange line) becomes apparent I will adjust again to just below 4.14 maybe 4.10....

The next hurdle is the major S&R at 4.40..the old bull/bear line from the previous major rally....If multiple failures to break though occurs here at these major points it sometimes pays to sell, realise the gain and bugger the stops...then just wait and see and remember to buy back in if it finally breaks through (not much opportunity lost using this strategy)......but we aren't there yet so I will see what to do when (if) it happens..

EDIT:..The common Strategy for all disciplines (TA included) is to cut your loses short and let your profits run.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TGR%2009072016.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/TGR%2009072016.png.html)

Hoop

11-07-2016, 11:59 AM

How about the DOW and the SP500? They defy logic! Trust the charts, would you buy within a whim of an all time high? Of course you would if you knew if was going higher and higher again, but is it? Calamity is the alternative. The clock has stopped, the spring coiled beyond reason. It may break, or it may not. Trust the charts. Desperate times.

Edited my last post #74

To use the TA or chart discipline or any other discipline for that matter (Technical or Fundamental) one has to do what the discipline says...not what your emotion or the media says..

What unglues most experienced investors is a deviation away from their investing discipline leading up to and during a crucial market period (cyclic reversal)

So far... many well known and very respected Experts have used financial disciplined commonsense and have also come unglued with this current very long (7.5 years old) and unpopular cyclical bull market cycle..

We have been hearing about this cyclical Bull being in the fundamental "red zone" for over 3 years now..Some of these people manage huge investment funds and they have been coming under fire from their clients for taking a continuing bearish stance on what has been a long period of continuing upward trends for many stocks and the bullish attitude from their clients ..... tarnishing many reputations.

In a mature bear market cycle fundamental commonsense flys out the window and the famous quote from John Maynard Keynes The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. sums up the situation well...

So..

It's reasonable to expect a similar fundamental commonsense flying out the window when the Market opposite occurs, such as during the mature bull market cycle...I guess one could quote..The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay rational....and that's the scary part.............

.................After any major re-correctional event we always hear deafening noises from all the "after the Event" Experts saying "We were out before the cycle reversal occurred because the bad fundamentals were so obvious to us all, except the idiots..why didn't they listen to us?"

They probably did.... most of the time in real life many may have seen the bad fundamentals and got out..... only to re-enter because months and perhaps years went by and that market still defied it's fundamental rationality frustrating you or your clients with opportunity losses occurred from the continuing so-called unsustainable rises ..Investors and Managers coming under pressure from both clients and being underweight and holding too much cash earning next to nothing, gain a sense that perhaps it's different this time and their fundamental discipline is far too conservative for the modern times....

History has shown many high profile fund managers being caught and burnt with cyclic reversals...and from the above reading you can see why this happens..

A little "made to measure" story:

Imagine being a new inexperienced worker in this boiler room and seeing the boiler gauge enter into the red zone...commonsense reigns and this worker gets out and says, "I value my life and I'm not going to work in here until the gauge lowers down"...day after day the other experienced workers keep working earning money reciting, "no worries the gauge often does this and nothing happens", ridiculing the person and name calling... wimp..(did I hear "sheeple" :))..and the poor worker becomes a social leper among the workmates.....Months go by the gauge is still in the red zone it seems the experienced boiler makers workers were right and the gauge is being too conservative ..maybe the old gauge being used on a recently new modern up tech boiler is no longer reflecting the true situation, and the workplace was always safe...

With time variable and the boiler not blowing up...these experience workers opinions now seem as being correct ...these experienced workers taking home pay each week becoming richer each week.... the worker that had the initial commonsense and not being paid..and prompted that pay will reconmense with work, re-valuates the situation...assumes the risk is lower than first thought and decides to go back to work in the boiler room...
http://www.billfrymire.com/gallery/webJpgs/pressure-gauge-stress.jpg

The next day the boiler room blows up....Everyone (Media) criticises the workers.."Even a inexperienced person could see the meter was in the red zone and they continued to work on!!!!...idiots!!...what were they thinking"..

A Wall St breakout to create a record high this week??..fundamentals and secular analysis says no..with the current defying behaviour of this Bull that probably means yes it will reach a new high...The timid and the commonsense investors will lose fundamental rationality and will re-enter adding extra "available money" to the market creating buyer pressure...
Chartwise... that 2100 primary resistance area zone is very strong..will it break? Chartists crystal balls are just as unreliable as everyone else's......but if there's a primary resistance break ..it's a major buy signal...it's all "in".....again..

Hoop

21-07-2016, 10:44 AM

TA kicked me out of AIR ..again!!!
Hopeless...a profit just enough to pay for my lunch. :p

Snow Leopard

21-07-2016, 11:28 AM

TA kicked me out of AIR ..again!!!
Hopeless...a profit just enough to pay for my lunch. :p

TA = Turbulence Analysis ?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Hoop

21-07-2016, 01:09 PM

TA = Turbulence Analysis ?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Yeah probably....and I also hate flying..yes that's emotional...

What is not emotional is TA said sell.....I don't know the reason why and I don't really care..I try to keep to the discipline and I did well this time by sticking to the system...it said sell so I pushed the sold button..easy :)...

If AIR proves to be TA unfriendly then I just walk away and invest in stocks that are TA friendly..plenty of fish in the sea..

Hoop

21-07-2016, 01:36 PM

People can call TA anything they like...

15 years ago I swapped from long time FA to medium term FA with reliance on the TA discipline..Best thing I ever did..it's been highly successful for me...from my record there is absolutely no way anyone can sway me to use a different system.. Trying to keep to the discipline is my problem. Most of my failures (some damaging) have been not selling when told to..Those damaging times were the times ignoring TA sell signals in favour of applying favourable FA...then hanging on after the sudden bad news ...

This time I did well by sticking to the system...it said sell so I pushed the sold button.....When It says buy again I will buy, but in saying that AIR has mucked me around..too many unfavourable buy/sell actions and I will walk away..

TA sell signals can fail there is no 100% discipline system and some stocks are more TA friendly than others...but sticking to the TA system saves you getting caught in a gut wrenching hold/sell dilemma when the stock tanks and has taken away your capital gain...the ol' saying "you never lose when booking profits"...Not good when booking profits too early in the bull market??..no !!..This is not an excuse...TA recognises bull markets and will trigger buy signals

A TA disciplined portfolio works this way..cut your losses short, let your profits run...

Hoop

22-07-2016, 10:31 AM