PDA

View Full Version : Please advise!



King1212
25-12-2015, 06:16 AM
Hi Gurus!

I am am a new member and consider myself a very young investor. I recently invest my spare hard earned cash on few companies. As I don't require the monies in short term, n I am planning to hold the shares at least a year then revise the companies's financial status. I divided my investment into 2 categories. Dividend gain and solid growth companies and another one solid depand on the growth.

Below are the shares that I bought.

ANZ, ARV, HNZ, OHE, PAY, SEA

Looking forward for any toughts or views or advise.

Thank heaps!

Dentie
25-12-2015, 06:58 AM
Welcome King1212 - and Merry Xmas to you.

I am a long term investor and, so long as I have done my research properly and continue to monitor the situation, I don't worry about the short term "noise". Remember the NZ share market is very small - compared with the overseas ones. A lot of things may happen which you won't make sense of.

My advice to you is to do all the research you can - which includes considering what you read on forums (even this one!), keep a close watch on the wider market and maintain your self belief as to why you purchased the stock in the first place. Due to the anonymity on forums, it is easy to rant and rave and pose as a guru etc - without having to show your credentials or identity - so please take everything you read on forums with a grain of salt. Everyone has their own agenda - so always be aware of the possible reasons behind why some posters might be "pumping" up a stock - while others might be "dumping" the same stock (some might even be doing both!!). Trust your own research and judgment.

Good luck with your investing King1212... I'm off to see Santa!

percy
25-12-2015, 07:21 AM
Welcome King1212.
Dentie has given you excellent advice.
I think your portfolio looks a good place to start,with two banks,one retirement sector,one medical tech,one health food/exporter and one very aggressive tech.

kiora
25-12-2015, 08:11 AM
Hi Gurus!

I am am a new member and consider myself a very young investor. I recently invest my spare hard earned cash on few companies. As I don't require the monies in short term, n I am planning to hold the shares at least a year then revise the companies's financial status. I divided my investment into 2 categories. Dividend gain and solid growth companies and another one solid depand on the growth.

Below are the shares that I bought.

ANZ, ARV, HNZ, OHE, PAY, SEA

Looking forward for any toughts or views or advise.

Thank heaps!

Merry Xmas K1212. Congrats on making the choice to invest in shares and starting out young.You have already had some good advice
My thoughts
If I was you I would decide when I will need some/all of the money I have invested.Is it for retirement?Buy a house?
Is it for 1? 5,20,30 years?
If it is one year then in I would have a lower risk/reward
OHE,PAY & SEA may or may not pay off as it they likely will make losses for the foreseeable future so returns will depend on other investor's sentiment.I would avoid making this mistake new investors make when investing in the share market ie going for too high risk/return to start with.I would initially invest in Co's that are cash flow positive and that with a few assumptions on my part will be still operating & growing in 5/10/20 years time. Remember time is an investors friend.Be patient,learn from mistakes(we all make them).The aim of investing is to not only make money BUT also to not loose money.Losses on one share take the shine off the rest of the shares gains
I would only invest 10-20% of your portfolio in higher risk shares(ones than are not cash flow positive) and only if I have a long time horizon before I need the money to give the Co time to achieve the growth I am expecting of it .
Remember DYOR and this is not investment advice.This is all about what I do and have done for 30+ years

King1212
25-12-2015, 10:23 AM
Merry Christmas to all of you!

God, thank u so much for the thoughts! Yes, did a lot of researches before I bought the shares. Thanks Dentie, Percy and Kiora! I don't really need the monies even after one year. The monies will stay in shares. My plan is after one year, I will revise shares that don't perform well, and if slightly make profit, I will dump it and change to other shares. If not will continue to hold it till make profit.

My SEA, OHE, PAY are just around 35% of my total portfolio. I used to invest in managed funds the last 3 years however, I cashed in this year and started investing myself. During the last 3 years I used to read about NZ business articles and NBR.

I really enjoy therefore i decided to invest in shares my own.

Again, thanks! Happy holidays!

kiora
25-12-2015, 11:04 AM
Merry Christmas to all of you!

God, thank u so much for the thoughts! Yes, did a lot of researches before I bought the shares. Thanks Dentie, Percy and Kiora! I don't really need the monies even after one year. The monies will stay in shares. My plan is after one year, I will revise shares that don't perform well, and if slightly make profit, I will dump it and change to other shares. If not will continue to hold it till make profit.

My SEA, OHE, PAY are just around 35% of my total portfolio. I used to invest in managed funds the last 3 years however, I cashed in this year and started investing myself. During the last 3 years I used to read about NZ business articles and NBR.

I really enjoy therefore i decided to invest in shares my own.

Again, thanks! Happy holidays!

Hi again K1212
May I suggest reviewing after 1 year is too long for "higher risk shares".A rough rule of thumb I like to keep if a share drops more than 10% particularly if on higher than normal daily volume,SELL at on market price,don't hesitate.It can save the portfolio from some hideous looses which can happen to everyone.Then review why the investment was flawed.
On the other hand if a share is running hot eg TIL lately(interesting reading the TIL thread) let it run,don't sell too early.

muss1
25-12-2015, 12:16 PM
Hi King,

One thing I would review bout your strategy: don't judge your investment based on the share price. Judge it based on how the company is performing (are earnings growing etc). Therefore after one year I would review the company performance - the share price should only come into it if you think the company is overvalued. Determining that isn't easy though! In summary, if the business is going well keep holding, if the business has taken a turn for the worse consider selling. This stands whether you've made 100% or lost 50% in the company.

LAC
25-12-2015, 01:52 PM
Hi King1212,
Like yourself I consider myself a very young investor on here, there are some great guys on here who offer some great insight into some companies/businesses. Very valuable data when trying to make intelligent decisions:) I have been investing for about 3 years now and I can honestly say it is only recently that I have been making informed, logical and intelligent buys. I have made some horrible decisions initially due to not doing the right research and just following the sheep. As Muss said above if things turn bad on a particular stock, just look at selling asap. I always held for a better day which never came....
The other is over time you will realise which guys on here give good insight and which tend to pump the price of a stock.....
Goodluck:)

pak
25-12-2015, 03:30 PM
I also consider myself as a very young investor compared to many on this site (3years). I have dedicated much of my time this year to making small investments and monitoring my emotional connection to them as well as research . I study any where from 1-3hrs per day on various investment techniques ( im lucky i can do this at work if im not busy ), what and how many fundamentals need to be right. Or, if you can overlook some fundamentals if a number of others line up. Lately I'v been learning the technical aspects, in particular candle stick analysis in line with certain trends, which I find very powerful and has improved my entry and exits in a big way. Some think the technicals are mumbo jumbo, but technicals is based on psychology and when you have money involved you have emotion an hence psychology - a very useful tool in your toolbox. The pros use technicals, surely they're not wrong! I recommend going through pheadrus's posts, they are excellent an well explained. As we are on a similar learning curve ill be interested on how you go in the coming years.
Good luck

Hoop
25-12-2015, 03:59 PM
Hi Gurus!

I am am a new member and consider myself a very young investor. I recently invest my spare hard earned Hmmm.sounds emotionally attached cash on few companies. As I don't require the monies in short term, n I am planning to hold the shares at least a year then revise the companies's financial status. What happens if a company's fortunes deteriorate before your yearly review? I divided my investment into 2 categories. Dividend gain and solid growth companies and another one solid depand on the growth. biased portfolio to high risk investments..OK if you are young and expect to lose some of your capital...it takes many goes to get a bonanza stock (10+ baggers)..and your got 40 years to find a few..best of luck.

Below are the shares that I bought.

ANZ, ARV, HNZ, OHE, PAY, SEA

Looking forward for any toughts or views or advise.

Thank heaps!

Current Status: We are at the Mature end of the NZX 50 Bull Market Cycle..This is a very old NZX Bull (nearly 7 years old) and its well into its bonus years...We are currently observing Global exchanges slowly reversing one by one back into bear market cycles...

King1212 ..sadly your timing to enter now as a new investor using a long term strategy is a normal thing... Most Newbies are often too late to the Bull party to get much out of it.....and end up with a portfolio that's underwater for the next 4 to 5 years..

Maybe its the best to wait..( Patience..is a virtue (hard too do when young))This NZX Bull is ready to die anytime soon and Bear Market cycles are not very long ie 9 - 15 months..Anyway you should not be tempted as this NZX Bull cycle has done nothing for most of your stocks mentioned apart from PAY during 2015...

Maybe stick your money on bank deposit and invest in the survivor companies after the next bear market cycle (the doom and gloom period)...You will know when to invest..its the time when everyone ("the Group") advises you against stock investing.. and... when you do invest they aggressively tell you that you are insane....

Merry Xmas

noodles
25-12-2015, 07:07 PM
Hi Gurus!

I am am a new member and consider myself a very young investor. I recently invest my spare hard earned cash on few companies. As I don't require the monies in short term, n I am planning to hold the shares at least a year then revise the companies's financial status. I divided my investment into 2 categories. Dividend gain and solid growth companies and another one solid depand on the growth.

Below are the shares that I bought.

ANZ, ARV, HNZ, OHE, PAY, SEA

Looking forward for any toughts or views or advise.

Thank heaps!
How did you come up with your picks? I can't really see a pattern. I do see 3 very high risk stocks.

Hoop is right. You need to have a plan for a bear market. How would you cope with 50% losses?

I hope your position sizing is small. When starting, we can make a lot of mistakes.

Remember, it is OK to be wrong if you make a small loss. A small loss can have huge educational benefits.
I consider my first 10 years as educational. I am now only really ramping up my position size.

A useful site for screening stocks
http://www.unclestock.com/



Good Luck
noodles

noodles
25-12-2015, 07:15 PM
I don't really need the monies even after one year. The monies will stay in shares. My plan is after one year, I will revise shares that don't perform well, and if slightly make profit, I will dump it and change to other shares. If not will continue to hold it till make profit.

Unless you are prepared to invest time more than once a year, I think you would be better putting your money with a broker or a fund who would monitor the investments more than once a year. I'm also of the view that you should dump your losers, not your winners.

EDIT: Maybe I'm being a little harsh. The Dogs of the Dow is a once a year strategy. Outperforms the market by a massive 3%
http://www.investopedia.com/university/stockpicking/stockpicking8.asp

King1212
25-12-2015, 10:08 PM
Thanks guys for the feedbacks! Yes, I am aware with the end of bull market now therefore I pick above six that have not been exposed too much with recent bull except PAY. What interested me with PAY is thier faith sector. I lived in US before, and knew most of church members donate to the churches weekly or monthly. I could be wrong, but tech companies are hard to predict.

To answer Noodles whether I could cope 50 persen losses, I would definitely just leave the share and prefer to leave it longer than a year. Recently, PAY had her period and heaps of selling till NZX love's letter. I just leave it, not even panicked.:)

Hoop
26-12-2015, 11:46 AM
Thanks guys for the feedbacks! Yes, I am aware with the end of bull market now therefore I pick above six that have not been exposed too much with recent bull except PAY. ??? do you expect these stocks to shine during a Bear market? you're methodology here is gambling not investing.. What interested me with PAY is thier faith sector. I lived in US before, and knew most of church members donate to the churches weekly or monthly. I could be wrong, but tech companies are hard to predict. So are software companies...Hard to predict companies you short term speculate not use long term hold strategies

To answer Noodles whether I could cope 50 persen losses, I would definitely just leave the share and prefer to leave it longer than a year. Wrong thinking..50% drop requires a 100% climb to break even again..Successful investors do not own kennel portfolio's. Use KISS strategy.. Divest your losers quickly and keep/accumulate your winners. Recently, PAY had her period and heaps of selling till NZX love's letter. I just leave it, not even panicked.:)Panicked is a misused word on ST forum..Most steep large drop behaviours are rational corrections from a grossly overpriced stock.

It seems King1212 your mind was mind up to invest before your first post...so I assume posting is of little use to you but it may be useful to others..

The chart below illustrates just how important timing is and identify where one is at within the market cycles so to apply the right type of investor strategy.

The chart below shows what happens when creating a new portfolio using a (sailing (http://southcoastinvest.com/rowing-vs-sailing/)) Bull market Strategy as you King1212 suggested using is applied near an end of the Bull market cycle.

If you start a new portfolio late in a Bull Market Cycle your investment strategy should be of a "rowing" type..A more active, frequent monitoring, hands on approach which require a good amount of sharemarket knowledge and skills so to identify corrective reversal points and sell signals...A good knowledge of TA is useful as forward earnings analysis and other FA can be unreliable in this market cycle phase...So really its a warning for Newbies to keep away from this market phase and the next few phases which is the Bear cycle itself..

If you start investing using your method (sailing) .... I recommended in my previous post it should be at the beginning of a new bull market cycle..... It is easy and little investment skill is needed (ideal entry time for New unskilled investors). Bull market strategies (sailing) should be applied...Sailing requires least effort, less monitoring, longer review times.(the strategy you suggested in your first post)..The best investment strategy (least skill required v efficiency) is the "Buy & Hold" strategy and riding out the corrections..and prune the stocks at your leisure that don't meet your expectations.

The chart gives a possible future portfolio forecast....I've added one scenario for the "ha ha you are wrong" people who view this chart at the end of 2018 when the current NZX bull is still miraculously alive and is at 9000...

Chart Assumptions
1...assumes your portfolio is using the bull market (sailing) strategy beginning at a late or near the end of the present day Bull market cycle...Different market cycle scenarios are drawn in as comparisons...
2...assumes a newbie can't outperform Mr Market for 5 years (a sure bet :).... note:-- 86% of active managers failed to outperform Mr Market in 2014 (http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/12/investing/investing-active-versus-passive-funds/))
3...assumes the NZX50 index maintains its historic very long term 5%pa growth rate channel

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/NZX50%2024122015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/NZX50%2024122015.png.html)

warthog
26-12-2015, 04:01 PM
You have many replies here so the hog will just point out that nobody here can "advise" you.

The most they should be doing is giving you their opinion and/or suggesting you seek proper "advice" from somebody you consider qualified to provide it.

King1212
26-12-2015, 04:21 PM
Great opinion Hoop! Will definitely taking some consideration on all your opinions! I went to see adviser couple weeks ago and honestly you guys gave more opinions than him!

stevevai1983
26-12-2015, 06:59 PM
my advise:
in order to generally win, that is : do not lose money in the long term. you need to accept 2 assumptions
1: you cant time the market.
2: you cant predict the near future.

best strategy is dollar cost averaging: put % of your salary each month into share account and invest.

that's big strategy side, for detailed tactics follow the 2 rules:
1: diversify your portfolio, e.g invest into different sectors and different asset classes (e.g REITS)
2: be defensive, pick big and famous companies, sector leaders. only pick small company when you really familiar the company and the sector.

King1212
26-12-2015, 07:53 PM
my advise:
in order to generally win, that is : do not lose money in the long term. you need to accept 2 assumptions
1: you cant time the market.
2: you cant predict the near future.

best strategy is dollar cost averaging: put % of your salary each month into share account and invest.

that's big strategy side, for detailed tactics follow the 2 rules:
1: diversify your portfolio, e.g invest into different sectors and different asset classes (e.g REITS)
2: be defensive, pick big and famous companies, sector leaders. only pick small company when you really familiar the company and the sector.


Thanks stevevai1983!

Stranger_Danger
26-12-2015, 10:44 PM
By starting early, you give yourself a high chance of acquiring the key thing an investor needs : a bull**** detector.

Think about everything you see or are told. A monkey can probably be taught to buy and sell things on the internet. Your gains will be made by thinking. Thinking about the future, thinking about trends, thinking about valuation, thinking about risk.

Are you being fed bull****? Are you doing it to yourself?

Who is giving you the advice? What is their upside? Downside? Are they following their own advice? Does their financial position reflect the long term outcomes of their advice?

With companies, don't just read the summary announcement. Compare it to the financials. Then compare what happened to what they said was going to happen. Do they under or over promise? Do they emphasise some bull**** metric for profits then hide the real number? Is there a 5 year chart when profits are increasing, then when they stop increasing, do they yank the chart and switch to a 5 year chart of something that is still increasing?

Have the directors been involved in any disasters? Is the CEO a self promoter? Is he honest? Can you meet someone who works there? What is it like?

Is there a way to become a customer of the company? Or call a few?

If they reckon they'll be able to take over the world with 100 million in funding, how much have they already had? What were the original projections? Did they even get close?

If they say only 1% of China needs to buy it, and you'll be rich, have you ever tried to sell something to China? The flights will cost less than the investment losses!

Politicians on the board? Why? Triple check the CEO - compliant idiots are usually a tactic of a CEO who doesn't want to be questioned.

Most of all, you want to turn your bull*** detector on....yourself!

Be really careful about justifying an action as something "Warren Buffett would do". You're not f****** Warren Buffett. And he wouldn't spend his time rationalising dubious decisions with sound bites.

Are you in love with the stock? Why are you buying your 18th investment? What is wrong with buying more of your favourite one? Not willing to - why not?

What was your original thesis? Has it happened? Why not? NO, this does NOT belong in the bottom drawer. Hiding something away doesn't make it alright. This applies to investments just as it applies to domestic violence : It's NOT ok.

Buying is much easier than selling. I know lots of poor people that are good at buying assets, they even buy what are - for a while - good assets. But they don't sell. Selling isn't failure, even if it is at a loss. Selling is an affirmative decision. Would you buy more of it? If not, at least consider selling. Then consider it every 6 months.

Do you have an information edge? Is a massive company really safer than a smaller one? Really? You think you are smarter than the thousand analysts following the massive one? The fact those same folk won't even look at the smaller one doesn't even interest you? You can't know more than everyone about Westpac or BHP and honestly they're probably so complex nobody really knows as much as they think. Start with simple companies.

Compare the time spent on research you've done on the share you're about to buy to the time you spend deciding which new car to buy, or, trying to get some chick to sleep with you. Happy with the results?

Don't wait until it goes back to what you paid for it. The market doesn't care what you paid. Don't stretch too far, for yield, for anything. Cash **IS** a valid, intentional, aggressive strategy if it isn't a result of apathy. You don't have to buy stuff constantly, it isn't a competition.

Pretend you only get to make 20 investment decisions, ever. Would you still make this one?

Don't join clubs, don't tell people how much you make, don't indulge in any self congratulatory activity, don't think you're smarter than you are, and for gods sake (and trust me, I learned this the hard way), if there comes a time when the biggest idiots you know are buying, and despite being underinvested you still can't figure out how you're making so much money and you start expecting it to happen as a right, then SELL, sell, then sell some more..

Jantar
26-12-2015, 11:42 PM
.........
Don't join clubs, don't tell people how much you make, don't indulge in any self congratulatory activity, don't think you're smarter than you are, and for gods sake (and trust me, I learned this the hard way), if there comes a time when the biggest idiots you know are buying, and despite being underinvested you still can't figure out how you're making so much money and you start expecting it to happen as a right, then SELL, sell, then sell some more..
Bob Jones once commented that the time to sell is when everyone else is buying. Still makes sense to me.

Balance
27-12-2015, 09:46 AM
Spend some time reading Warren Buffet investment thoughts and strategies.

Hoop
27-12-2015, 09:55 AM
By starting early, you give yourself a high chance of acquiring the key thing an investor needs : a bull**** detector.

Think about everything you see or................................................ ..................

Nice post SD....:)

Disc:-- 43% NZX & AX stocks
............57% Cash

Stranger_Danger
27-12-2015, 10:27 AM
Nice post SD....:)

Disc:-- 43% NZX & AX stocks
............57% Cash

Similar to me, I'm 65% cash and 35% ASX/NZX, I expect it to be 70/30 by the end of Jan.

I think 2016 will be an interesting year - there will definitely be ways to make money, but it won't be a "buy the index" sort of year.

Snow Leopard
27-12-2015, 07:56 PM
http://assets.amuniversal.com/b3417d2070e20132b90b005056a9545d

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

nextbigthing
27-12-2015, 09:11 PM
Read 'One Up on Wall Street' by Peter Lynch. Highly recommended. Best of luck.

pierre
27-12-2015, 10:26 PM
Great to have you back with us PT - we've missed you, your wisdom and your humour.
Cheers
Pierre

skid
28-12-2015, 01:04 PM
Your computer can be your best friend or your worst enemy

Dont forget your parachute

Go back and read some of the threads from the very start...especially the popular ones..

Be fearful when others are greedy, Be greedy when others are fearful...........Never try to catch a falling knife---If those 2 concepts confuse you...never listen to cliches..

GTM 3442
28-12-2015, 05:10 PM
Make enough trades to realize that YOU MAKE MISTAKES.

Work out what those mistakes were, then move on to understanding why you made them.

This is not easy, and will take quite some time.

h2so4
28-12-2015, 05:58 PM
Bob Jones once commented that the time to sell is when everyone else is buying. Still makes sense to me.

Buy quality and never sell.

bohemian
28-12-2015, 06:19 PM
Buy and hold on conviction : FPH, RYM, ATM....

1leon
28-12-2015, 10:10 PM
My advice to you is to do all the research you can - which includes considering what you read on forums (even this one!), keep a close watch on the wider market and maintain your self belief as to why you purchased the stock in the first place. Due to the anonymity on forums, it is easy to rant and rave and pose as a guru etc - without having to show your credentials or identity - so please take everything you read on forums with a grain of salt. Everyone has their own agenda - so always be aware of the possible reasons behind why some posters might be "pumping" up a stock - while others might be "dumping" the same stock (some might even be doing both!!). Trust your own research and judgment.
!
I am intrigued that your warning against forums i.e. based on the problems arising out of anonymity are precisely the basis of my post #60 on New Forum Rules where I suggested posters who cause problems do so by abusing anonymity. No one seems to have taken issue with that which leaves the question what genuine purpose anonymity serves.

Dentie
29-12-2015, 08:29 AM
I am intrigued that your warning against forums

Um...okay ...

I wasn't warning "against" forums Leon...I would replace the word "against" with "in respect to".

I'd be quite happy if they changed the rules which got rid of anonymity altogether.

1leon
29-12-2015, 10:23 AM
Um...okay ...

I wasn't warning "against" forums Leon...I would replace the word "against" with "in respect to".

I'd be quite happy if they changed the rules which got rid of anonymity altogether.
I'm happy with that replacement---so as a question to other posters who wants anonymity and why?

stoploss
29-12-2015, 12:47 PM
Do you have to be logged in to view this site ? If you change the anonymity , think everyone should have to be a member to view .

skid
29-12-2015, 12:56 PM
Do you have to be logged in to view this site ? If you change the anonymity , think everyone should have to be a member to view .

That way we could find out who the real people are that are straying so far off the subject:)

percy
29-12-2015, 01:01 PM
I sell books to schools trading in my own name.
My hobbie is the share market.
I don't really want every school librarian knowing I discuss shares on this forum.
Could end up they want to spend all day talking shares to me, rather than buying books.
A lot of members in ChCh ,Auckland and Tauranga have met me at get togthers, so know who I am.

skid
29-12-2015, 01:11 PM
I sell books to schools trading in my own name.
My hobbie is the share market.
I don't really want every school librarian knowing I discuss shares on this forum.
Could end up they want to spend all day talking shares to me, rather than buying books.
A lot of members in ChCh ,Auckland and Tauranga have met me at get togthers, so know who I am.

I agree--my comment was tongue in cheek

1leon
29-12-2015, 04:27 PM
I sell books to schools trading in my own name.
My hobbie is the share market.
I don't really want every school librarian knowing I discuss shares on this forum.
Could end up they want to spend all day talking shares to me, rather than buying books.
A lot of members in ChCh ,Auckland and Tauranga have met me at get togthers, so know who I am.
Seems to me you could be very unwise to discuss shares with people you have a business relationship. They might not distinguish which is your business and you might also have to steer very cautiously on Financial Adviser's obligations regardless. You could find that legislation a very simple excuse to avoid spending your business time discussing shares.

percy
29-12-2015, 04:40 PM
Seems to me you could be very unwise to discuss shares with people you have a business relationship. They might not distinguish which is your business and you might also have to steer very cautiously on Financial Adviser's obligations regardless. You could find that legislation a very simple excuse to avoid spending your business time discussing shares.

Exactly.
That is why being anonymous percy suits me.

1leon
29-12-2015, 06:04 PM
Exactly.
That is why being anonymous percy suits me.
Exactly????
If they read this website I guess they are going to ask you if you are Percy the poster now anyway! That's assuming they have the time and inclination to talk about shares. at all.

jetski1999
02-01-2016, 02:36 PM
for me one of the keys is the board and senior management, do you trust them to run your company, what is there future plan and is it public knowledge, are they meeting that plan
couple of examples mainfreight good management good plan achieve milestones, rakon direct opposite
also talk to lot of people you will be surprised who you come across that work at companies that you invest in they may only be cleaners but they can still let you know the vibe of the staff and what they know of the company or management be careful on this they could lead you done a wrong path.
example a GM for a listed co this year resigned a month ago going to a competitor that has not been notified to the NZX yet, even though he is a key guy, and most of the industry he is in has heard about it right down to warehouse staff
use your eyes you can see a lot of what your companies are doing whether its in retail or property being built for expansion.
balance these against the financials and share price and you will pick a lot more winners than losers.
just like forums be cautious on analysts recommendations a lot of the time they have a vested interest
last DYOR and trust yourself, its your money don't be afraid to change your mind on a stock

skid
02-01-2016, 03:01 PM
Treat the forum as a starting point for your research

Yoda
03-01-2016, 02:52 PM
[QUOTE=Jantar;601883]Bob Jones once commented that the time to sell is when everyone else is buying. Still makes sense to me.[

/I assume you mean when the price drops below, say, 120 MA. ..If people are buying and its going up, why would you sell?

macduffy
03-01-2016, 04:29 PM
I think that Bob Jones was referring to markets in general ie the stage at which the oft quoted shoeshine boy and taxi driver start talking about the market. It can get to be a very congested space when "everyone" decides that the party's over and wants to get out!

Valuegrowth
03-01-2016, 06:34 PM
Finally, this ended up with a very interesting and useful discussion.

Some predicted bull market will be over in 2014 and then in 2015. Now we are in 2016. Many missed one of the longest bull markets in global market. Still we are going to have great opportunity in undervalued assets including undervalued stocks. There are opportunities in global markets.

Intelligent investors know how to beat others in the long run. They don’t buy overvalued stocks. They buy great value companies. Value stocks should outperform others in 2016.

Have a strategy. Stay with simple businesses that you can understand. Don’ follow the crowd. Everybody make mistakes in markets.

Gook Luck!

SCOTTY
03-01-2016, 08:44 PM
As a burnt and very disappointed shareholder in RJI back in the 1980's. Bob Jones is the last person that I would be taking investment advice from.