Predictions for 2016

[BlackPeter]

OK, folks - dust off your crystal balls and give us your view on where 2016 will bring us. Given my amazing success rate for the 2015 predictions (40% - ouch) did I thought that I might give it a start to set a low enough baseline for you to improve on:

1) interest rates will stay low, though drifting slightly upwards towards the second half of 2016 (US,Europe, NZ) due to inflation rising (oil prices can't drop forever). Low interest rates will keep equity prices up;

2) oil will stay low (<US$60/bbl), this should help companies like AIR, THL, NZR (and others);

3) Gold stays between $950 and $1150 - but in my view more likely to finish 2016 at the upper end of this band (increasing excitement about the middle east, reduced international leadership (US elections), drifting RMB). Modest gains for OGC (and other miners)?

4) NZ Agriculture will get worse before it gets better. Produce likely to appreciate, but volumes to drop (El Nino). Still - expect relevant shares (PGW, FSF) to start recovery towards the end of 2016.

5) NZ$ keeps dropping in the first half 2016 (following agriculture), but will slightly recover towards the end of 2016 - this will be good for manufacturing companies like SKL, FPH, NPX;

6) NZX bull keeps running (but loosing steam). Single digit increase in 2016 for NZX50?

7) NZ property prices likely to lose steam - and plateauing in the second half. Still - little or no drop of house prices due to a braindead housing policy (we need more, better quality and affordable apartments, particularly for families - but this is another thread);

8) Some of the tech stocks recovering (no - not PEB), however I expect WYN to do well and send my best wishes to the OHE team. Still - I expect the decision where OHE is going will be delayed into 2017 (fallout of US elections);

9) US policy will be dominated by an increasingly uglier fight between Trump and Clinton, resulting in the US losing control of international events (climate, middle east conflict) and tensions in the middle East rising. I hope (and think) that sanity will finally prevail. Clinton for president - which might be good for e.g. OHE and (to a lesser degree) other NZ companies!

10) Rising tensions between Russia and China - keeping the US sort of in the drivers seat. However US unlikely to capitalise on this benefit due to a lame duck as president and an increasingly nasty election campaign. Lets all hope for a better 2017!

Ah yes - obviously all with the usual disclaimer (DYOR) and another reminder of my pathetic hit rate in 2015 (40%). Better make you own investment decisions ...

[troyvdh]

Giday Blackpete...good post ..but the first two confuse me..about oil ..I believe that the average price per barrel is about $27.50...over the past 120 odd years..not sure if that is inflation adjusted....as you are aware the world currently has S... loads....and more....Re farming...of course it will..get worse...long term av price for milk powder is about $4 (I believe)....The share market...me thinks it will continue to be healthy...alike a descent amount of folk/instutions require an income...!!..any ways...have a good one...me I will be a work...tonight...cheers troy

[Stranger_Danger]

(1) Donald Trump will lead to....something. I don't know what. It won't be him becoming President, but I could see his candidacy causing a black swan of some kind. Someone shoots him? He runs as an independent? He manages to incite a race riot in a US city? Putin finds a way to play him, and America, to some advantage?

(2) Xero hits either $10 or $30. I don't know which.

(3) Australian unemployment increases significantly. Most of the foreign workers have been laid off first, next step is for the job losses to really start to show up in the figures.

(4) ATM doubles then falls by 75%.

(5) Stories of mortgage fraud start to appear in the Auckland market, involving people of the same ethnic group (but not blood relations) both inside and outside the banking institutions conspiring for mutual benefit. House prices may not fall by much, but they wouldn't need to in order to start discovering some bad capital allocation decisions.

(6) Putin takes Moldova. No real resistance from the people there - many supportive - but more tension stirred up with USA etc.

(7) Somebody is murdered as a direct result of something that happened on Twitter.

(8) Index investing doesn't give good returns, but special situations will throw up a few investment opportunities.

(9) National/Key will temporarily go down just enough in the polls for Robertson to try and roll Little for leader.

(10) Dick Smiths will go broke.

(11) So will Pumpkin Patch.

(12) The very first 30-60 year old internet shoppers will start to wonder how and where their kids will receive starter jobs in the economy. They'll keep merrily doing to the service economy what has already been done to the manufacturing economy. The kids who increasingly can't get starter jobs will kill time and spend their welfare buying stuff online. Nobody will care until the tax base is degraded to the point where it can no longer fund the welfare state, and that won't be next year, so party on!

(13) A terrorist attack in Australia will kill at least 10 people.

[Joshuatree]

No happy happy joy joy then:mellow:

[Cricketfan]

1) Nothing of significance will happen with PEB, but there will be 100 pages of discussion on ST about it.

2) FPH will continue snoozing its way higher.

[axe]

RYM and FPH grow profits in 2016. :)
If VML manages to get onto the main board in march it will do what PAY did in 2015 . If its relegated to the NXT then it will fare not as well.

People will continue to try an solicit financial advise from strangers on this forum. :)

Happy new year everyone and may your portfolios bring you many happy returns in 2016

[Minerbarejet]

While we all have our imaginations out:
Donald Trump will win the US election forcing Hillary Clinton into exile in Russia
PEB will pay a dividend.
There will be an increase of 100 year floods in NZ to several a year from the current one or two.
Mt Taranaki will spring to life with a worrying eruption at the edge of the gas fields.
Sugar will be made a Class A drug
The Old Flag will stay.
A boat load of refugees will make it to Milford Sound.
The internet will overload, facebook, twitter, Sharetrader, online shopping and banking etc will be useless.

So overall not a bad year coming up.:)
GLTA

[skid]

2016 I think will be the year when debt finally catches up with some countries--most likely -Pakistan-Greece-Ukraine-Venezuela.
China will decline as an import -export but will keep its internal market.
NZX will be more affected by world markets which will be more volatile.
Corporations will continue to dominate foreign policy and will increase their ability to interfere with our democracy and ability to legislate (on the bright side-we will appreciate more the song ''you dont know what you got ,till its gone'')
Tourism will increase because more people will want to come to a country that is not as far down the line as those that are more commercialized-(hopefully those in power will wake up to the fact that something must be done about the previous point while (if?)it is still possible,as the last point is one of our biggest assets)

The majority of people will continue to believe that money is the most important ingredient in the pursuit of happiness.

[troyvdh]

Dear skid...that last comment...aint that the truth...same with buying stuff...think of those hordes of folk stampeding the malls in recent days...cheers..

[BlackPeter]

Giday Blackpete...good post ..but the first two confuse me..about oil ..I believe that the average price per barrel is about $27.50...over the past 120 odd years..not sure if that is inflation adjusted....as you are aware the world currently has S... loads....and more....

Hi troy, I thought this discussion belongs into a different thread and tried to respond here:

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?739-Crude-Oil&p=602185&viewfull=1#post602185

Does this answer your question?

[smpl]

My view:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/my-forward-view-investment-portfolios-brian-walters?trk=prof-post

[trader_jackson]

Well I might as well throw hat in the ring with a few predictions, mainly related to the stocks I hold and/or interests I have:

- Electricity sector:
Generally speaking, the sector will continue to stagnate, although all will experience strong cash flows, and GNE will increase its dividend and MRP will make a much, much better 'accounting' profit.

- Banks:
After a volatile year, Australian banks will improve this year, underlined by a stronger than expected Australian economy (as recent indicators would suggest). HBL will have a fantastic run, and acquire MTF.

- PEB
The hotly-debated stock on ST will finally begin to 'prove its worth' and come to the party with a few major announcements and potentially by the end of this year, have 'customers beginning to line up'. I think PEB's big days will be in 2017, but 2016 should still be a big recovery from a 'lack luster' 2015.

- AFT
Like many growth orientated stocks (including HNZ) AFT will have a good year, underlined by strong increases in cash flows from customers, with this being underlined from very strong international sales.

- Retirement Sector
RYM and MET will have a good year, after 2015 was a year where they essentially moved nowhere, as they both (particularly RYM) have diversified portfolios, not only geographically but also in terms of care beds and units. SUM will struggle as new supply of units and Auckland property prices plateau, coupled with a very strong performance in 2015, resulting in SUM being fully valued. ARV will increase and potentially be the 'underdog' of the retirement sector this year after a lackluster 2015. ARV will acquire another village, become a NZX 50 company, and increase the build rate of units, although will still be very care based allowing it to continually increase its dividends year on year. Oceania may list in 2016

- Property
The 'Auckland property train' originally fueled by foreign buyers and borrowing from novice investors hoping to 'get a bit of the action' (and capitalizing on low interest rates) will come to a grinding halt with mid single digit gains, so probably won't collapse. The rest of NZ, particularly Tauranga region will experience good gains.

- NZX Overall
Will have an increase in the high single digits, underlined by increased dividend payments. Then again, alot of commentators believed the NZX would only increase in the mid-high single digits in 2015 and this was proved dead wrong, so its hard to say what exactly will happen. I agree it will become more affected by overseas developments and volatility will continue to be a major theme. Although, like always, there are always winners and losers.

Please feel free to comment on the above, but DYOR (Do Your Own Research), the above is strictly an opinion and not financial advice in any way.
Thanks :t_up:

[Valuegrowth]

I think we will see low-interest rates and low inflation.

2016 will be day for value stocks.

Both AUD and NZD will drop further agents USD. Asian currencies will stabilize and will go up against the basket of currencies such as NZD, AUD and CAD.

Commodity prices will go down further. Gold will trade below $1000.

Overvalued markets will go down toward end of 2016. However, still stocks will give some great returns in 2016.

Emerging and frontier markets will have some great opportunities especially in undervalued markets.

Global consumers will spend more on food; they are going to spend on the things they need to run their households and the staples.

They also will spend on consumer durables such as cars because of low gas prices.

Oil could go to around $30.

Unemployment could rise in Australia. New Zealand will have a flat market or less buoyant job market than 2015.

Milk prices will stay under pressure.

Property market in Sydney and Auckland will stay under pressure.

USA and European economies will improve. Asian countries will have one of the fastest growths in the world. South Asia and South Korea will have more growth than other areas of Asia.

DUOR –Because nobody cannot predict 100% correctly.

[Nasi Goreng]

In the forex world, I think NZD will fall to around 60 against USD and we might have another crack at parity against AUD.

I agree with poster who thinks gold will trade below $1k and I think commodities including dairy will struggle in the next few months but rally in 2nd half.

[Sgt Pepper]

My sample list

Oil will be at $60 US per bbl by end of 2016

Geneva Finance (GFL) will be the best performing stock on NZX

Tauranga and Dunedin will post the largest gains in NZ Real Esate market

John Key will anounce his resignation in December 2016, replaced by Judith Collins and her deputy will be Michael Woodhouse

John Key will be the next High Commissioner to London, replacing Lockwood Smith.

[troyvdh]

Dear Marketwinner...For what its worth I totally agree..Sgt Pepper...Key in London..Nah....he's done the London thing I believe..me thinks he will do the Ritchie thing and focus on whats really important...just saying..

[skid]

If John Key resigns he will go where ever is best for him to reap the incredible ''payouts'' he is setting himself up for with the big overseas players,at the expense of ordinary New Zealanders. after all he IS a businessman.

[nextbigthing]

While we all have our imaginations out:
Donald Trump will win the US election forcing Hillary Clinton into exile in Russia
PEB will pay a dividend.
There will be an increase of 100 year floods in NZ to several a year from the current one or two.
Mt Taranaki will spring to life with a worrying eruption at the edge of the gas fields.
Sugar will be made a Class A drug
The Old Flag will stay.
A boat load of refugees will make it to Milford Sound.
The internet will overload, facebook, twitter, Sharetrader, online shopping and banking etc will be useless.

So overall not a bad year coming up.:)
GLTA

You left something off Miner;
'There will be peace, agreement and robust discussion all year on Sharetrader'

[Minerbarejet]

You left something off Miner;
'There will be peace, agreement and robust discussion all year on Sharetrader'Yes, NBT.
Sorry in my haste I forgot that and the outbreak of swine flew.

[warthog]

If John Key resigns he will go where ever is best for him to reap the incredible ''payouts'' he is setting himself up for with the big overseas players,at the expense of ordinary New Zealanders. after all he IS a businessman.

In what sense is Key a businessman?

Has he ever made or produced anything tangible?

[BlackPeter]

In what sense is Key a businessman?

Has he ever made or produced anything tangible?

money (well, at least cash) is tangible - isn't it?

[warthog]

money (well, at least cash) is tangible - isn't it?

No, money is a financial asset (IAS 32, para. 11).

[winner69]

(1)

...........

(10) Dick Smiths will go broke.

(11) So will Pumpkin Patch.

..........

Only a few days in and #10 probably come true already

#11 next?

[whatsup]

In what sense is Key a businessman?

Has he ever made or produced anything tangible?

Best P M N Z has ever had and the envy of the free world as well

[dobby41]

swine flew.

The pigs fly where?

[dobby41]

In what sense is Key a businessman?

Has he ever made or produced anything tangible?

He is (was) a gambler!

[BlackPeter]

No, money is a financial asset (IAS 32, para. 11).

Some assets (actually - most) are tangible ...


tan·gi·ble
adjective
tangible : perceptible by touch.
"the atmosphere of neglect and abandonment was almost tangible"
synonyms: touchable, palpable, material, physical, real, substantial, corporeal, solid, concrete; More
antonyms: abstract
clear and definite; real.
"the emphasis is now on tangible results"
synonyms: touchable, palpable, material, physical, real, substantial, corporeal, solid, concrete; More
antonyms: abstract

[percy]

Looks as though 2016 is going to be a year of volatility.
Whether my NZ portfolio ends the year up or down will be interesting,however with increasing dividends I should end the year in good shape.With low interest rates expected to be the norm for some time,I think the chances of my high dividend paying companies share prices increasing looks more than likely.So good research will be rewarded.
The small cap Aussie companies I follow will as usual be volatile,however this seems to work in my favour.Let profits run,cut losses and add to winners.

[NZSilver]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-04/verrender-economists-got-it-all-wrong-in-2015/7065916

[Bilbo]

My crystal ball tells me the NZ market will start the first day of 2016 with a loss. Further losses in January will present great buying opportunities for some stocks. IMHO :)

[winner69]

I often seek counsel from Yogi Berra

"The future ain't what it used to be." - Yogi Berra

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." - Yogi Berra

[Minerbarejet]

The pigs fly where?You are onto it, Dobby.

[xafalcon]

Dairy prices will continue to rise towards historical average levels, although the “GDT price path” will have some “downs” these will be out-numbered by “ups”

The NZD will similarly follow a slow upward trend against most currencies, including USD

OCR will remain flat, as tradable inflation once again falls due to the appreciating NZD

RBNZ governor Wheeler will continue to fight the symptom of house price appreciation, rather than passing the issue back to central government to address the actual cause of problem (not enough houses for a rapidly growing population, following a 5 year building hiatus during the GFC)

Someone (maybe not Paul Bloxham) will again use the term “Rockstar economy” to describe NZ, as GDP growth exceeds 3.5%

The US interest rate increase experiment will be painfully slow, perhaps with an extended pause or even a reversal in H2 once the addiction withdrawal from QE sets in and highlights the fragility of US economic growth

Oil prices will decline to US$25 as more Iranian and Iraqi crude hits the market as both countries repair their devastated infrastructure

World economic growth will slowly accelerate due to falling energy prices, except of course in energy exporting countries

Hard commodities will remain at current values, but this is the bottom of the trough

NZ wages & salaries will generally not rise significantly, except for a few vocations where skills are very short

Unemployment in NZ will fall to 5.2% by year-end

Immigration will trend lower as the aussie economy slowly improves

Tax cut details will be announced in this year’s budget, implementing in 2017, just in time for the election

The NZX will once again perform better than most major world indices due to the low proportion of “commodity” stocks

Tiwai smelter will agree to long term electricity contract at higher electricity price off the back of a transmission charge reduction

US election will be Trump v’s Clinton, with Trump loosing due to being completely unable to persuade all the minority ethnic groups he has insulted/isolated that he really isn’t a bigot

NZ tourism industry will become the #1 export earner, nicely diversifying the economy

Economists “predictions” will continue to morph into post-event analysis of why an event occurred, because the last 5 years have proven to be so unpredictable they are sick and tired of wiping egg of their faces (surprisingly the RBNZ doesn’t seem to mind doing this though……)

Unexpected situations will occur more often, because predictive models don’t seem to work since the GFC

Volatility will continue to be an underlying theme for many areas – capital markets, currencies, political situations, commodities, international relations etc

[kiwidollabill]

(10) Dick Smiths will go broke.



Well this was spot on.... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11569422&ref=nzhbiz_tw

[Major von Tempsky]

Oh, sigh of disappointment.

I turned to this page in hopes of some mea culpa, breastbeatings and explanations of why you got 2015 so horribly wrong?

How can we read your 2016 predictions if you haven't fronted up for 2015....

[Stumpynuts]

I'm predicting NTL - New Talisman Mines will announce a JV with Newcrest mining after the application to extend Talisman mining permit into Rahu is granted approval.

I expect this announcement to be made in the very short term (Within Q1 2016)
Read the NTL thread here - The giveaway signs are there.

[BlackPeter]

OK, folks - dust off your crystal balls and give us your view on where 2016 will bring us. Given my amazing success rate for the 2015 predictions (40% - ouch) did I thought that I might give it a start to set a low enough baseline for you to improve on:

1) interest rates will stay low, though drifting slightly upwards towards the second half of 2016 (US,Europe, NZ) due to inflation rising (oil prices can't drop forever). Low interest rates will keep equity prices up;

2) oil will stay low (<US$60/bbl), this should help companies like AIR, THL, NZR (and others);

3) Gold stays between $950 and $1150 - but in my view more likely to finish 2016 at the upper end of this band (increasing excitement about the middle east, reduced international leadership (US elections), drifting RMB). Modest gains for OGC (and other miners)?

4) NZ Agriculture will get worse before it gets better. Produce likely to appreciate, but volumes to drop (El Nino). Still - expect relevant shares (PGW, FSF) to start recovery towards the end of 2016.

5) NZ$ keeps dropping in the first half 2016 (following agriculture), but will slightly recover towards the end of 2016 - this will be good for manufacturing companies like SKL, FPH, NPX;

6) NZX bull keeps running (but loosing steam). Single digit increase in 2016 for NZX50?

7) NZ property prices likely to lose steam - and plateauing in the second half. Still - little or no drop of house prices due to a braindead housing policy (we need more, better quality and affordable apartments, particularly for families - but this is another thread);

8) Some of the tech stocks recovering (no - not PEB), however I expect WYN to do well and send my best wishes to the OHE team. Still - I expect the decision where OHE is going will be delayed into 2017 (fallout of US elections);

9) US policy will be dominated by an increasingly uglier fight between Trump and Clinton, resulting in the US losing control of international events (climate, middle east conflict) and tensions in the middle East rising. I hope (and think) that sanity will finally prevail. Clinton for president - which might be good for e.g. OHE and (to a lesser degree) other NZ companies!

10) Rising tensions between Russia and China - keeping the US sort of in the drivers seat. However US unlikely to capitalise on this benefit due to a lame duck as president and an increasingly nasty election campaign. Lets all hope for a better 2017!

Ah yes - obviously all with the usual disclaimer (DYOR) and another reminder of my pathetic hit rate in 2015 (40%). Better make you own investment decisions ...

Another year under the belt (or down the bridge) - how did I do?

1) interest rates will stay low, though drifting slightly upwards towards the second half of 2016 (US,Europe, NZ) due to inflation rising (oil prices can't drop forever). Low interest rates will keep equity prices up;

Not too bad - I think we can give that a tick (10/10).

2) oil will stay low (<US$60/bbl), this should help companies like AIR, THL, NZR (and others);

Oil certainly stayed below $60 - another tick (10/10)...

3) Gold stays between $950 and $1150 - but in my view more likely to finish 2016 at the upper end of this band (increasing excitement about the middle east, reduced international leadership (US elections), drifting RMB). Modest gains for OGC (and other miners)?


Well - I got the end point right - spooky eh? Missed however the mountain in the middle of the year ... lets make that 5/10 - shall we?

4) NZ Agriculture will get worse before it gets better. Produce likely to appreciate, but volumes to drop (El Nino). Still - expect relevant shares (PGW, FSF) to start recovery towards the end of 2016.


Actually - the recovery started already in the first part of the year, and all agricultural stocks look now much better than in the beginning of the year. Another 5/10?

5) NZ$ keeps dropping in the first half 2016 (following agriculture), but will slightly recover towards the end of 2016 - this will be good for manufacturing companies like SKL, FPH, NPX;

Spooky - assuming I was referring to the USD, this is exactly what the currency did. - 10/10

6) NZX bull keeps running (but loosing steam). Single digit increase in 2016 for NZX50?

Well, if we take todays numbers NZX50 went up by 8.7% this year. OMG - I am good ;) 10/10;

7) NZ property prices likely to lose steam - and plateauing in the second half. Still - little or no drop of house prices due to a braindead housing policy (we need more, better quality and affordable apartments, particularly for families - but this is another thread);

And they did ... 10/10; Bonus points for a highly accurate description of our housing policy?

8) Some of the tech stocks recovering (no - not PEB), however I expect WYN to do well and send my best wishes to the OHE team. Still - I expect the decision where OHE is going will be delayed into 2017 (fallout of US elections);

Ouch - I certainly got the thing with WYN wrong - and OHE - well, lets see. No points for this prediction (though GTK did really well :sleep:)

9) US policy will be dominated by an increasingly uglier fight between Trump and Clinton, resulting in the US losing control of international events (climate, middle east conflict) and tensions in the middle East rising. I hope (and think) that sanity will finally prevail. Clinton for president - which might be good for e.g. OHE and (to a lesser degree) other NZ companies!

Well, I certainly got the first part right (ugly fight, US loosing control of international events, increased tensions in the middle east). The second part of my prediction (based on hope) just shows that hope is no strategy. Sanity did not prevail. 5 out of 10?

10) Rising tensions between Russia and China - keeping the US sort of in the drivers seat. However US unlikely to capitalise on this benefit due to a lame duck as president and an increasingly nasty election campaign. Lets all hope for a better 2017!

Didn't really materialise ... Putin extended his evil strategy towards the West instead. The free world lost - Zero points for the prediction.

Overall - 65% right - not too bad - isn't it? On the other hand - the year before (2015) I got only 40%, lifting me just above the mean. Maybe I need to keep working on getting a better forecaster?

[Joshuatree]

Can someone else mark this please i detect bias:scared: Who cares anyway;(about the bias:) enjoy your slightly above average yes/no moment:t_up:.

[PLYNCH]

How about some predictions for 2017 Blackpeter????

[RTM]

Well done BP....so 40 + 65. Average ~50% for the two years.
About the same as flipping a coin ?

[BlackPeter]

How about some predictions for 2017 Blackpeter????

Just look into the right thread :p: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10798-predictions-for-2017&p=649759&viewfull=1#post649759

[BlackPeter]

Well done BP....so 40 + 65. Average ~50% for the two years.
About the same as flipping a coin ?

Didn't say that this is good ... However - most predictions are more complicated than "head or tail"

[RTM]

Didn't say that this is good ... However - most predictions are more complicated than "head or tail"

Agreed...I thought you did pretty well really.:)

[Sgt Pepper]

My sample list

Oil will be at $60 US per bbl by end of 2016

Geneva Finance (GFL) will be the best performing stock on NZX

Tauranga and Dunedin will post the largest gains in NZ Real Esate market

John Key will anounce his resignation in December 2016, replaced by Judith Collins and her deputy will be Michael Woodhouse

John Key will be the next High Commissioner to London, replacing Lockwood Smith.

well I think I did pretty good, especially on John Keys resignation, might get the price of oil to $60.00. currently on $53, and Tauranga property was number 2. Geneva Finance? yep totally wrong, but it did make a profit!