Bud

[jib]

Hey team

This stock has been mentioned over on the Disruptive Tech Stocks thread but thought it probably deserves its own.

Operating in the Internet of Things (IoT) space, Buddy is based in Seattle but is currently setting up an office in Adelaide and has recently listed on the ASX via a backdoor takeover of Potash Minerals. The company boasts a very impressive listed of investors and partners and was the first investment made by Microsoft Ventures.

Both of the below videos are well worth checking out.

A quick intro on Buddy
https://vimeo.com/150232444

Investor conference call which took place a few days ago
https://vimeo.com/150821585

I dipped my toes in earlier this week.

[Snow Leopard]

You may be interested in the two videos here >> [https://www.youtube.com/user/BuddyPlatform]
These shows the direction that Buddy were originally taking before they changed to their current focus.

Interested in what they are [now] up to - I was doing this sort of stuff (developing software to take large amounts of data and process/store/analyze it in real time) with a company in California up until 10 years ago.
They are certainly using some of the same buzz words that our sales guys used.

It seems that the problems of big data today are the same as those of a decade ago (but we did know to call it big data then), there is just more of it today and more powerful computers with which to handle it.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Joshuatree]

Thanks PT , nothing on that website for me.$200 mill fully diluted mkt cap seems a bit rich.

[showstring]

Some good additional info/research

http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/what-is-the-real-potential-of-buddy.2628472
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/winner.2558194/
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/fully-diluted-market-cap.2567186

I think this stock could be quite big in 2016 and beyond.
It's got superb management/directors, and is in one of the hottest sectors right now.

[bung5]

I agree, 200mil market cap is a lot to pay for what its got currently! Would be keen to get in but would have to be half the current price to be tempting.

[showstring]

FYI current market cap is $132 million if you include all the escrow shares (escrow for 24 months) http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BUD:AU
without the escrow shares, market cap is $46 million


also FYI for these kind of new companies in "growth" phases, the market usually values "potential" more than it does "what the company currently has"


Buddy operates in a hotter than hot market sector, and has a superb product. Even a small slice of the pie offers immense potential

IoT between a $7 trillion and $13 trillion market by 2020
http://www.computerworld.com/article/2868049/what-the-internet-of-things-can-do-for-you.html
http://www.arabnews.com/economy/news/852966

BaaS market (where Buddy specifically operates) - $31billion by 2020
http://www.strategyr.com/pressMCP-7959.asp


as has been previously posted, Buddy used to work on apps, but they have pivoted into the back-end IoT hosting provider, so their specific sector would be a combination of IoT + BaaS
better explanation can be had watching the investor conference video that has been posted - https://vimeo.com/150821585

I'd consider the current price of Buddy (under 20c) to be similar to buying Xero in the $1-2 range

My near-term (Feb) price target is 30-40c

DYOR

[Joshuatree]

Thanks again for your int info shoestring I've highlighted a few, colossal figs.helps me understand IOT better.

"To put the growth of IOT in numbers, one can could witness 40 to 80 billion connected objects by 2020, he said.
Smartphone is going to become the central connecting hub to various devices even as every human being will be connected to 10 different objects."
"Analysts estimate that the revenue potential in IOT is between $1.2 trillion to $13.3 trillion and the most significant investments will go into civic management, health care, education etc"

[Baa_Baa]

FYI current market cap is $132 million if you include all the escrow shares (escrow for 24 months) http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BUD:AU
without the escrow shares, market cap is $46 million


also FYI for these kind of new companies in "growth" phases, the market usually values "potential" more than it does "what the company currently has"


Buddy operates in a hotter than hot market sector, and has a superb product. Even a small slice of the pie offers immense potential

IoT between a $7 trillion and $13 trillion market by 2020
http://www.computerworld.com/article/2868049/what-the-internet-of-things-can-do-for-you.html
http://www.arabnews.com/economy/news/852966

BaaS market (where Buddy specifically operates) - $31billion by 2020
http://www.strategyr.com/pressMCP-7959.asp


as has been previously posted, Buddy used to work on apps, but they have pivoted into the back-end IoT hosting provider, so their specific sector would be a combination of IoT + BaaS
better explanation can be had watching the investor conference video that has been posted - https://vimeo.com/150821585

I'd consider the current price of Buddy (under 20c) to be similar to buying Xero in the $1-2 range

My near-term (Feb) price target is 30-40c

DYOR

You might be right with that XRO comparison, though that remains to be seen whether BUD can achieve anywhere near the growth and loyal irrational exhuberant shareholder base ;) What I'm seeing is that BUD has appeal but is mired in it's reverse listing details and hangover options, rights etc, but is trading already at 2x its IPO right now. That's a double right there (gone). What's giving you confidence that it will double again anytime soon? Forget the 'market', if you can let us know about signed contracts, ACMR and revenue in the "very short term", that'd be great. Seriously looking, just can't quite see the near term horizon upside that you forecast. Cheers.

[showstring]

Here are my reasons for my market cap valuation of $250m+ in the near-term.

1. Two US based DIY-type-IoT companies were acquired for similar valuations few years ago
http://www.iot-now.com/2014/07/24/23020-ptc-follows-thingworx-deal-us170m-acquisition-axeda-expand-iot-technology-portfolio/
Axeda was acquired for US$170M on July 23, 2014
Thingworx were acquired for US$130M on 31 December, 2013

I believe Buddy has a superior product which is worth more, and the IoT space is 'hotter' now.

2. Dave said customers on page #21 slide have ~$20m revenue if you exclude the Federal government.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20151026/pdf/432cyvv7498lk0.pdf

3. They are in discussions with both US federal government, and AUS federal/regional government, which are much bigger contracts, however discussion/contract lead time is 18-24 months due to size and complexity of the deal. So will have to wait a bit longer until those get signed on the dotted line (but I'm fairly sure it will happen).

4. Dave mentioned that slide #21 in that investor presentation is result of 3-4 months of sales engagements and stressed the fact that was all the way back in October 2015. It sounds like they now have more potential customers with expanding levels of interest, and have more money available for expanding marketing efforts due to a very successful IPO. So I anticipate rapid growth. Additionally, Dave was asked a question if they had any imminent customer contract sign-ups and he just said "yes, next question".

5. If the 4C quarterly due end of Jan is positive (which I believe it will be), and if they announce 1 or 2 new customers by Feb, I think it will easily reach 30-40c valuation, at least on hype alone. Another requirement for this price prediction is no mass global panic in equities and the world not ending. If 30-40c hits it might be a good short term target to sell, and re-buy if you think it might get back into the 20c; if they don't keep announcing new customers that is.


As an example of a similar US-based newly-reverse-listed company with similar growth potential, look at 1PG
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/company.do#!/1PG

They listed on October 2014 (first Silion Valley company to list on ASX), so refer to 5 year chart.

Share price appreciation between BUD and 1PG might not become identical, due to 1PG having a lot less shares on issue, but I think it will be fairly similar :)

[bung5]

aprox 700,000,000 million shares in the company issued already

and another aprox *280 odd mil options that are already in the money already or close ( *from memory, can't be sure without looking into it again)


give it a diluted mcap of around 200mil already

[jib]

Following a highly successful pre-sales customer tour for Buddy’s new energy monitoring and verification system, Buddy Ohm, official Australian and U.S. sales start today
• Buddy Ohm will feature at the Telstra Australian Smart Communities Conference, held at the Adelaide Convention Centre this week
• First installations of the Buddy Ohm system have begun, as initial shipments of Buddy Ohm, Ohm Link, Ohm Sense and Ohm Pulse arrive in Australia
• Over 80 facilities are in the queue to install their first Buddy Ohm system in Australia, representing a potential demand of over 3,500 systems
• Australian roll-outs follow a tremendous response for Buddy Ohm at IoT World 2017 in Santa Clara, California, where followup meetings and trial installations have been scheduled representing tens of thousands of systems.

[showstring]

Re-rate happening, making new 52 week highs and all that. Mostly attributed to the raving success of Buddy Ohm.

A good little bullish/spruiking post on hotcopper that posts facts from the CEO and announcements only



Customer installations have now commenced in Australia, and there is presently a waiting list of high profile, nationally recognized brands awaiting the arrival of additional Ohm units into Australia for their installations...

Buddy estimates that follow-on interest and/or purchase orders were received from customers representing nearly the full first manufacturing product run (of 1000 units). The Company will release information on specific customers, deployment timings (since installations are expected to be staggered) and scenarios in the near future.

From the announcement on the 17th May 2017... The announcement on the 8th of May 2017 stated that the roadshow was due to commence that week in Australia and just 9 days later had already received follow-on interest and/or purchase orders for almost the first full manufacturing run of 1000 units...

Buddy Ohm Link commences manufacturing this week, and will be available for customers mid June 2017

This suggests it takes just 1 month from the start of manufacturing to be available to customers... Very short time frame which means they could increase their orders on demand if need be... The only thing that will determine how quickly they can deploy these things will be speed of installations/training etc... This is why they are partnering with large telcos like Digicel, this will speed uptake and installations, a win win for everybody... From the Buddy website it states that Ohm can be installed within a 'matter of hours'...

Simple hardware install

Working with a certified electrician, the Ohm base station and sensors can be installed and reporting data in a matter of hours.

I wouldn't be surprised to see more similar deals in other regions... Telstra?

So with 1000 units already sold or in the queue to be sold just from the 1 week roadshow that will bring in $12m a year revenue...

From the 31st of May, the AFR article below...

"We've got over 80 facilities in the queue for orders in Australia," he said. That represented up to 3500 individual sites. Demand in the United States and the Caribbean had also been solid, with the end users covering tens of thousands of facilities.

http://www.afr.com/business/energy/...nitoring-device-20170530-gwgtia#ixzz4n8yqgJ46 (http://www.afr.com/business/energy/electricity/buddy-platform-says-orders-are-surging-for-energy-monitoring-device-20170530-gwgtia#ixzz4n8yqgJ46)

So from the 17th of May through to 31st of May the number of people in the queue had jumped from 1000 to 3500, representing 2500 increase in 2 weeks...

3500 units would be $42m revenue... Then Mr Dave Mclauchlan stated that the end users are covering 10s of 1000's of facilities... This would bring potential revenues in the $100's of millions... I say potential since I do not know how many of those 10's of 1000's will actually take up the product...

This is all recurring revenue, revenue generated every month for the life of the product... If we can sell this many units from Australia, NZ , Caribbean and US, imagine how many more we could sell in other parts of the world such as the UK and Asia... The mind boggles on the potential market cap of BUD, I am not talking millions, I am talking billions!

Mr Mclauchlan also hinted that upgrades to Ohm will occur once this product is released, which will open up new markets such as military and residential...

Buddy is currently in the process of developing a military version of Ohm with a higher degree of security to meet the requirements of government defence departments locally and internationally.

McLauchlan also said customers have been enquiring about the ability to remotely control facilities.

"Some customers have said, 'Can you go turn down the lights or the heating if the power is too high?' While we have the ability to do that, we're not rolling out that functionality at this point," McLauchlan said.

http://www.zdnet.com/article/asx-listed-iot-company-buddy-wants-to-be-fitbit-for-buildings/

There have been lots of enquiries about the ability to remote control facilities... This will be interesting and they have the ability to upgrade Ohm for this function...

Another upgrade and new market would be a 'home version of Ohm'...

Since its launch earlier this year, McLauchlan said the top request that Buddy has been receiving is a "home version of Ohm". While it makes sense to offer a home version in the future using more cost-effective materials, McLauchlan said the company is focused on the enterprise version until the time is right to expand the product line.

So the demand is absolutely 'going nuts' as Dave says with heaps more in the pipeline to upgrade Ohm and bring in multiple new markets is very exciting indeed... Once the market catches on, this thing is going to multiple bag!

[Traderwannabe]

Closed at .25cents on Friday - share price is doing very well. Can it continue?

[showstring]

I think yes. I've seen stocks get to much higher valuations on much less material developments...

Buddy is potentially a major disruptor in this space with their Buddy Ohm product
http://www.rcrwireless.com/20160808/internet-of-things/building-management-system-tag31-tag99

They are also in the business of MBaaS and "alternate data"

It has the potential to be the next ASX $billion+ valuation company. Right team, right sector, right time.

Have a read of their Investor Presentation from June to understand their business:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170619/pdf/43k0qgd7jry5qq.pdf

also the latest Webinar contains good info on the positive traction they are getting with their Buddy Ohm product:
https://vimeo.com/buddyplatform

Please note my opinion is biased. I am a holder since July 2015 (before the reverse listing) and am very bullish on the stock, as can be evident by my very "forward looking" valuations of the company from earlier posts. I may have gotten a bit ahead of the stock price in the past, but it seems to be coming together roughly 1.5 years later...
I'm still getting used to the fact that things take a bit longer to play out than originally anticipated.

DYOR and gluck

[Joshuatree]

Still in shoestring and others.?Its been a rollercoaster since 2016. when s/p was re 20c. $23 mill cap raise just done now @ 20c. Ducks lining up at last?

Largest Distribution Deal Signed with Ingram Micro Canada (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/3769650/)Download Document 191.12KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYC5gm7y RiZouJ9ke92GA%3D%3D)
Investor Presentation (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/3761367/)

[showstring]

yeah still in bigtime
looking forward to $1b+ market cap and beyond