FXL Flexigroup

[trader_jackson]

Hi all,

Thought I would start a thread on Flexigroup (don't think there is any other?), they have had an impressive share price rally, still trading cheap (good PE, good NTA as % of SP, good yield, and a growing company)... not to mention they now get around 45% of their revenue from NZ (and have quite a heavy presence both commercially and in retail in NZ)

Look forward to discussing (annual results out 30 August!:t_up:)

Disclosure: Have been holding since 2014, but recently topped up at $2.40 (May) and $1.72 (July)... surely I am not the only NZ holder of this company? (nice that they pay dividends direct to my NZ bank account as well!)

[Hectorplains]

Hi all,

Thought I would start a thread on Flexigroup (don't think there is any other?), they have had an impressive share price rally, still trading cheap (good PE, good NTA as % of SP, good yield, and a growing company)... not to mention they now get around 45% of their revenue from NZ (and have quite a heavy presence both commercially and in retail in NZ)

Look forward to discussing (annual results out 30 August!:t_up:)

Disclosure: Have been holding since 2014, but recently topped up at $2.40 (May) and $1.72 (July)... surely I am not the only NZ holder of this company? (nice that they pay dividends direct to my NZ bank account as well!)

http://www.fool.com.au/2016/06/29/is-flexigroup-limited-a-secret-bargain/

A reasonably balanced view from MF (who'd of thunk it?) back in June though.

[malus]

I have a "toe in the water" just to keep a watching brief on this company... looking forward to their annual results too... you and I seem to be the only ones with it in the Aussie stock pick comp?

[trader_jackson]

I have a "toe in the water" just to keep a watching brief on this company... looking forward to their annual results too... you and I seem to be the only ones with it in the Aussie stock pick comp?

Yes, Aussie is a big market (many stocks), but I couldn't resist recommending Flexi... and I am confident it will recover and produce a very good return year on year.

I also wouldn't trust MF, as I have noticed they seem to be on (ie buy) and off (ie sell) this stock (mostly on) no matter what the price is over the past few years.

I think after these results, this stock will gain more attention in NZ, both (hopefully) in the media and on sharetrader.

[trader_jackson]

Very solid results, a lot of buying going on

[trader_jackson]

Half year coming up, will be interesting to see how things are going... no profit upgrade/downgrade so can't be to bad (or to good) I suppose

FY17 Half Year are due to be released to the ASX pre market open on Tuesday 21st February 2017 (likely around 11 or 12 NZ time)


Mr. Symon Brewis‐Weston, Chief Executive Officer and Mr. Ross Aucutt, Chief Financial Officer will
present the results on a teleconference at 10.30am (AEST) on Tuesday 21st February 2017 (1:30pm NZ time, I will try listen in).
A live (passive) URL link will be available at http://edge.media‐server.com/m/p/mx242w85
An archive of the event will be placed on the company’s website shortly after the event.

This will hopefully propel Flexigroup way above the $2.50 resistance :t_up:

[percy]

Half year coming up, will be interesting to see how things are going... no profit upgrade/downgrade so can't be to bad (or to good) I suppose

FY17 Half Year are due to be released to the ASX pre market open on Tuesday 21st February 2017 (likely around 11 or 12 NZ time)


Mr. Symon Brewis‐Weston, Chief Executive Officer and Mr. Ross Aucutt, Chief Financial Officer will
present the results on a teleconference at 10.30am (AEST) on Tuesday 21st February 2017 (1:30pm NZ time, I will try listen in).
A live (passive) URL link will be available at http://edge.media‐server.com/m/p/mx242w85
An archive of the event will be placed on the company’s website shortly after the event.

This will hopefully propel Flexigroup way above the $2.50 resistance :t_up:

Support at $1.70.
What went wrong.?

[winner69]

Support at $1.70.
What went wrong.?

That's one sad looking chart

[trader_jackson]

That's one sad looking chart

Extremely sad, and extremely crazy... every year produced a record profit, yet you wouldn't think it from the chart.
Trading at forward PE of 7.0 right now, dividend (even with reduced payout ratio for more growth) of over 4.5%.

Strategy day on June 22 - hoping this will stabilize things as right now the market is pricing in a large downgrade from the current worst case scenario (as indicated by flexi early May) of 90m NPAT.

As I have stated on the hot copper form:
"things aren't that bad in Aussie + things pretty good in NZ + FXL narrows its profit range a fraction by 2m = over 220m (about 25%) wiped of the market cap in a fortnight... This is so illogical it has to be trump mathematics?!"

[percy]

Thanks TJ.
I have made a note in my diary for the 22nd,and will read up about them before then, so I better understand the business.
Their acquisition of Fisher and Paykel Finance seemed good.
With my over weighted positions in HBL and TRA, in NZ, I have stayed away from Aussie financial businesses,however I have been known to change my mind.!!

[trader_jackson]

Thanks TJ.
I have made a note in my diary for the 22nd,and will read up about them before then, so I better understand the business.
Their acquisition of Fisher and Paykel Finance seemed good.
With my over weighted positions in HBL and TRA, in NZ, I have stayed away from Aussie financial businesses,however I have been known to change my mind.!!

Especially at this price!
Fundamentally, unbelievably stupid, but I agree on the chart does not look pretty, and has not done for a while.

[percy]

So their result to 31/12/2016 was excellent.
Then on 2nd May at Macquarie Australia Conference they downgraded ? their projected NPAT from $90mil to $97mil down to $90mil to $93mil,and the sp went into a nose dive.?
From 4-traders.com.
.................................2017............. .2018..................2019
Net Income...............92.3mil............98.5m..... ............105m
eps.............................24.9.............. 26.6...................29.1
eps growth.............................6.8%........... ....9.3%
PE..............................7.13.............. .6.67...................6.11
yield............................4.92%............ 5.51%...............6,2%
Maybe the eps growth is not as high as I would have expected ,yet the yield is good and the PE is low.
I will watch with interest.

[trader_jackson]

So their result to 31/12/2016 was excellent.
Then on 2nd May at Macquarie Australia Conference they downgraded ? their projected NPAT from $90mil to $97mil down to $90mil to $93mil,and the sp went into a nose dive.?
From 4-traders.com.
.................................2017............. .2018..................2019
Net Income...............92.3mil............98.5m..... ............105m
eps.............................24.9.............. 26.6...................29.1
eps growth.............................6.8%........... ....9.3%
PE..............................7.13.............. .6.67...................6.11
yield............................4.92%............ 5.51%...............6,2%
Maybe the eps growth is not as high as I would have expected ,yet the yield is good and the PE is low.
I will watch with interest.

such a minor downgrade, such a major reaction... and 2m of that 4m downgrade was due to a timing of cash flow payment for growth in Oxipay and Ireland, so a $2m trim off the top end, no trim off the bottom end of guidance, and Flexi loses 25% of market cap in a few weeks?

4 traders clearly still expect top end of their current guidance... which if it was true would make flexi even cheaper than already extremely cheap.
With such a low PE market must be expecting there to be very little or no EPS growth

[percy]

In NZ they brought FPF,a very sound finance company,who are successful financiers to the likes of The Farmers' customers.
They appear to be starting up their own business in Ireland, rather than buying an existing successful financier.Is this the case? Their Australian business appears to be under some pressure ie both solar panel and retail financing.
In NZ I guess their retail financing will also be a bit slower with the downturn in retail.
I notice in Australia they are looking to grow their business via brokers.Maybe online would be more profitable?

[trader_jackson]

In NZ they brought FPF,a very sound finance company,who are successful financiers to the likes of The Farmers' customers.
They appear to be starting up their own business in Ireland, rather than buying an existing successful financier.Is this the case? Their Australian business appears to be under some pressure ie both solar panel and retail financing.
In NZ I guess their retail financing will also be a bit slower with the downturn in retail.
I notice in Australia they are looking to grow their business via brokers.Maybe online would be more profitable?

Apparently Aussie cards business was a 'bright spot' recently, while NZ cards (ie Q card, farmers card etc) wern't so flash (although some have said this is due to a transition from Q card to Q MasterCard, along with other 'transition' stuff which are likely responsible for any 'lag' - afterall nearly 1 in 3 NZ'ers have a Q Card, but only 2% of the spend is on Q Cards - huge opportunity!). Analysts seemed more concerned with FXL's certegy - particuarly how a slow down in solar purchases effects certegy's profitability. I believe NZ leasing is going well, an AU leasing is turning around.

Partnership with flight centre, further push into ireland (they have been in ireland for a while I believe but only now making a real push - I think after they gained some sort of license), Oxipay (FXL's online offering) and a step into brokers will all require up front investment - with growth followng a year, or a few years after (as with any quality new investment)... the 'good' news is, none of these growth initiatives are things that are 'new' or FXL - consumer and business financing is their business - they know it and want to own it.

Some people think they paid a heavy premium for FPF, although the share price reaction immediately following would indicate otherwise (nearly twice as high as it is now!), and I believe there will be significant synergies with aussie business, likely to begin showing through this and the following years.

They have the solid foundation, they made the hard calls last year (discontinuing low RoE or 'old' parts of the business, and the write offs that follow), now they need to execute: and with the founder, also the chairman, holding a 25% or so share (who has not sold a cent at all in the past few years)... will likely not want to see it go pear shaped long term!

[percy]

TJ.
Thank you for filling in the gaps for us.
FPF.If they had not paid too much for it, someone else would have brought it,because it was a great company.

[trader_jackson]

TJ.
Thank you for filling in the gaps for us.
FPF.If they had not paid too much for it, someone else would have brought it,because it was a great company.

Reassuring to hear your thoughts on FPF... onwards and upwards till June 22!?
Aussie GDP data tomorrow, consensus is 0.1% growth, some (like NAB) are even saying negative... at 0.1% or above will be considered a 'job well done' by me, and hopefully the market - should benefit FXL (and vice versa)

[trader_jackson]

FXL down big time at open... even at current price of $1.60, trading at a PE of just 6.6 (yes, six point six!)... yet has grown profit every year since listing... if you think SUM other stocks have been hit a bit harder than they should have, look no further than FXL!
Likely due to tax loss selling, and (hopefully) not related to this Thursday's update... tempting to go into an xxxl position
(the 8 - 9 or so cent dividend likely to pay this full year is attractive in itself... regardless of the stupidly low PE)

[t.rexjr]

FXL down big time at open... even at current price of $1.60, trading at a PE of just 6.6 (yes, six point six!)... yet has grown profit every year since listing... if you think SUM other stocks have been hit a bit harder than they should have, look no further than FXL!
Likely due to tax loss selling, and (hopefully) not related to this Thursday's update... tempting to go into an xxxl position
(the 8 - 9 or so cent dividend likely to pay this full year is attractive in itself... regardless of the stupidly low PE)

And I thought I did well picking up a parcel at $1.64 a couple of weeks back. Might have to go find some more spare change. It doesn't seem that long ago I was happy to get a small parcel for $2.20. Sometimes the Aussie market baffles me!

[dela47]

And I thought I did well picking up a parcel at $1.64 a couple of weeks back. Might have to go find some more spare change. It doesn't seem that long ago I was happy to get a small parcel for $2.20. Sometimes the Aussie market baffles me!

Do others know something we don't about Thursday's announcement? Seems too irrational otherwise doesn't it...?

[winner69]

Do others know something we don't about Thursday's announcement? Seems too irrational otherwise doesn't it...?

Maybe all this talk of sn impending recession and the high household debt levels of Australian households is putting the jitters into the likes of Flexigroup

[Joshuatree]

Hey TJ, what figures are you using for gearing ratios being conservative?

[macduffy]

And I thought I did well picking up a parcel at $1.64 a couple of weeks back. Might have to go find some more spare change. It doesn't seem that long ago I was happy to get a small parcel for $2.20. Sometimes the Aussie market baffles me!

The "June tax-loss selling" phenomenon has that effect on a lot of stocks. The tricky bit is to sort out those with the potential to recover once that selling pressure is out of the way.

[trader_jackson]

Maybe all this talk of sn impending recession and the high household debt levels of Australian households is putting the jitters into the likes of Flexigroup

You would have thought that other financials would also suffer by 7%, yet nearly all of them are up (banks etc), a very similar company (some say) Thorn Group Limited is down just 1.5%... something doesn't add up, and yes dela47
, I suppose the nightmares of 31 May's announcement (which was meant to be very much one off impacts) last year may also be causing some to jump out at any price

[trader_jackson]

Hey TJ, what figures are you using for gearing ratios being conservative?

You are probably looking at the 82% figure, as many often do, including like the market itself (extract from page 7, half year report 16)

"FlexiGroup maintains a conservative funding strategy; to retain multiple committed funding facilities for all scale businesses, combined with an active debt capital markets presence. The Group currently has revolving wholesale debt facilities in place with five Australian trading banks, plus numerous institutional investors in its Asset Backed Securities (ABS) program.

At balance sheet date the Group had $2,369.6m of wholesale debt facilities, with $492.3m undrawn and no indications that facilities will not be extended. The majority of the wholesale debt facilities ($1,978.1m) have no bullet repayment on maturity, with outstanding balances repaying in line with receivables and customer loans if availability periods were not to be extended. These facilities are secured against underlying pools of receivables and customer loans. The remaining wholesale debt facilities either have a soft bullet or have sufficient lead time for re-extension when approaching maturity.
The Group’s $187.5m of corporate debt facilities, increased to fund the acquisition of NZ Cards, were drawn to $177.0m at balance date. These facilities are secured by the assets of the Group, and with a maturity
date in 2019."

So really, Flexigroup itself only has $177mm of debt, likely to produce min 90m annual profit (apparently - will see this thursday!)... even with a 'terrible' market cap of less than 600m (more than 2x lower than a couple of years ago) gearing ratios for the group, by any metric, are really very conservative, as they have mentioned, and I believe.

[trader_jackson]

You would have thought that other financials would also suffer by 7%, yet nearly all of them are up (banks etc), a very similar company (some say) Thorn Group Limited is down just 1.5%... something doesn't add up, and yes dela47
, I suppose the nightmares of 31 May's announcement (which was meant to be very much one off impacts) last year may also be causing some to jump out at any price

https://hotcopper.com.au/resources/australia-stocks-lifted-by-financials-nz-hits-over-9-mth-high.65373/#.WUdwg7puLvQ

"Australia stocks lifted by financials..."
You wouldn't have thought this was the case with flexi dropping like a stone?

Also saw consumer confidence in NZ, which now represents 40% of FXL's profit, is looking pretty good... you would have thought this would have helped the share price?

Crazy times

[winner69]

So they had a bit if profit downgrade last month

From Cash NPAT range of $90m to $97m down to $90m to $93m .....(last year $97m so less this year!)

Is this correct t_j?

Just assessing how much a bargain this

[trader_jackson]

So they had a bit if profit downgrade last month

From Cash NPAT range of $90m to $97m down to $90m to $93m .....(last year $97m so less this year!)

Is this correct t_j?

Just assessing how much a bargain this

Yes, with 2m of that due to a timing of cash flow (this was mentioned this could occur which is why they gave the large 90 to 97 indication)

First half 17 profit was up 18%, although on a per share basis was up 2%... you wouldn't think that because the share price is at a 5 year low although must be a weak 2nd half because if they were to produce another 47.5m that would be above their indication (being $95m) and that would mean a PE 6.3, nearly to good to be true for a so called (or at least previously called) growth company and former market darling.

Yes it will be lower than last year due to 9m (now 11m due to extra 2m of as mentioned above) in growth initiatives, not (really) because their divisions are all going backwards (see below screenshot)... chances are, 'underlying' profit is likely to hit another record (hopefully well over 100m)... Flexi afterall is meant to be a growth company, hence the recently reduced payout ratio (of 30 - 50%)... crazy in 2013, when the share price was nearly $5, FXL traded on a PE of over 20 and had a 1.3b market cap

8920

[trader_jackson]

Some say the drop from 1.70 to 1.595 ($1.56 at one stage) was due to do a broker downgrade... to $1.85 - market sems to have missed the 8 because it is still actually a premium of over 15% - and to top it all off, the broker that downgraded them still thinks flexi is cheap (at $1.70)

http://www.fool.com.au/2017/06/19/flexigroup-limited-share-price-falls-on-broker-downgrade/

[winner69]

I'm glad you can understand all that

My past makes me a bit wary of outfits that use SPVs

Maybe the business is all too complicated to understand and that could be a reason for punters losing interest. If so hard to overcome market perceptions and FxL may always be ridiculously undervalued.

[trader_jackson]

]
Maybe the business is all too complicated to understand and that could be a reason for punters losing interest. If so hard to overcome market perceptions and FxL may always be ridiculously undervalued.

You could be right there, if you look at the chart, it is really not pretty... it is hard to hang on to a share that is consistently going down... even more annoying is when they produce (nearly) record after record profit...

[trader_jackson]

Some even saying it is now soo ridiculously cheap that it could be taken over... then again the founder has a 25% (yes thats 25 percent, not 2.5 percent) stake in the company (and has not sold a cent despite the share price dropping like a stone) and probably doesn't want it to be seen sold off during a period of ridiculously hard to understand share price weakness

Disclosure: I brought even more at $1.58. FXL is now my largest share holding by quite some way.

[winner69]

You could be right there, if you look at the chart, it is really not pretty... it is hard to hang on to a share that is consistently going down... even more annoying is when they produce (nearly) record after record profit...

Problem sometimes with 'complicated' accounts / presentations people often think the lack of 'transparency' might mean reported things like Cash NPAT aren't real. Hence market lack of confidence if you get what I mean.

Not saying this the case with Flexigroup

But you are confident so why not try to make the most of it - just back yourself eh.

[winner69]

Price going up today .....panic over

[Joshuatree]

Reminds me of that DOOR's song "Ive been down so goddam long, it looks like up to me"

[Joshuatree]

You are probably looking at the 82% figure, as many often do, including like the market itself (extract from page 7, half year report 16)

"FlexiGroup maintains a conservative funding strategy; to retain multiple committed funding facilities for all scale businesses, combined with an active debt capital markets presence. The Group currently has revolving wholesale debt facilities in place with five Australian trading banks, plus numerous institutional investors in its Asset Backed Securities (ABS) program.

At balance sheet date the Group had $2,369.6m of wholesale debt facilities, with $492.3m undrawn and no indications that facilities will not be extended. The majority of the wholesale debt facilities ($1,978.1m) have no bullet repayment on maturity, with outstanding balances repaying in line with receivables and customer loans if availability periods were not to be extended. These facilities are secured against underlying pools of receivables and customer loans. The remaining wholesale debt facilities either have a soft bullet or have sufficient lead time for re-extension when approaching maturity.
The Group’s $187.5m of corporate debt facilities, increased to fund the acquisition of NZ Cards, were drawn to $177.0m at balance date. These facilities are secured by the assets of the Group, and with a maturity
date in 2019."

So really, Flexigroup itself only has $177mm of debt, likely to produce min 90m annual profit (apparently - will see this thursday!)... even with a 'terrible' market cap of less than 600m (more than 2x lower than a couple of years ago) gearing ratios for the group, by any metric, are really very conservative, as they have mentioned, and I believe.

Thanks TJ have shared this around a little; no strong feedback , responses atp;Im feeling cautious as I've been bit before buying "bargains". Mkt seems irrational here.:confused:

[trader_jackson]

Very interesting trading today, another big dive to its lowest since Feb 2011 (yes, well over 6 years) being under $1.55

1H 2011 Basic earnings per share was 9.3 cents, in 1H 2017 it was 12.8 - 38% higher.

Despite financials being generally weak on the asx today, FXL seems to be bucking the trend - volume fairly high again today, although no where near that of yesterday - still another 40 minutes to run over on the asx of course... but the share price seems to be rebounding in spectacular fashion in the past hour or so.

Just 1 more trading day left before thursday's announcement, which, no doubt, will be watched by many.

[Joshuatree]

Yes, its been on and off quicker than a brides nightie; low of $1.545 ,currently $1.63 todays high so far. And a few moments later $1.625.

[Joshuatree]

Low $1.58, high $1.635 so far today ;tracking up as the day goes on 1.3 mill shares through. Maybe FOMO setting in ahead of tomorrow.

[trader_jackson]

Low $1.58, high $1.635 so far today ;tracking up as the day goes on 1.3 mill shares through. Maybe FOMO setting in ahead of tomorrow.

Yea... and I heard over on hotcopper that there were some big long positions taken yesterday and the day before... maybe the whispers aren't that bad?

Every other financial stock (about 15) I follow on the asx are in the red - FXL is fighting a hard and lonely battle being in the green - a nice (and slightly relieving) switch around from a few days back.

Quite frankly, anything better than a 'very negative' update tomorrow (which a substantial share price fall in the past month and a half would suggest is about to occur) should be positive for Flexi - and although in the past day or two it has bounced a bit, it is still trading at ridiculously low levels (eg still below 7 PE).

[trader_jackson]

https://www.flexigroup.com.au/investor-centre/event-calendar

Link and time is now there, must have only been uploaded today... 4:30pm NZ time (I believe)

[Joshuatree]

Thanks TJ. Had some good feed back today from a friend who bought back in after being stopped out some time back. He has met CEO and was very impressed etc etc. Bought a few today; so everything crossed for tomorrow.

[macduffy]

Isn't it a sector issue rather than a Flexigroup problem? Increasing concern about household indebtedness in Australia is playing havoc with all financial services stocks, banks included, and with other consumer/retail companies. Personally, I won't be touching any of them until there's a reversal, economic and market-wise.

[Joshuatree]

Sensible and rational approach.

[trader_jackson]

Isn't it a sector issue rather than a Flexigroup problem? Increasing concern about household indebtedness in Australia is playing havoc with all financial services stocks, banks included, and with other consumer/retail companies. Personally, I won't be touching any of them until there's a reversal, economic and market-wise.

If we look at 1 May: (just a quick comparison)
ANZ share price $32.95
CBA share price: $87.46
FXL share price: $2.35

As at posting:
ANZ share price: $27.60
CBA share price: $81.82
FXL share price: $1.65

Percentage change:
ANZ - 16.2%
CBA - 6.4%
FXL - 29.8%

and I believe ANZ was one of the harder hit ones... then you see flexi which was nearly twice as badly hit as that... you tell me which one looks a bit over done! (at $1.55, which it hit last week, flexi was trading at nearly a 3rd of the PE ratio most other banks were trading at... yet they say they are a growth company)

I understand your view of course, just surprising to me how hard FXL has been hit, relative to the rest of the sector (and yet, as mentioned, they claim to be a growth orientated company)

[macduffy]

Certainly, FXL's shareprice has been badly hit. Perhaps the growth companies get hit the hardest when growth is threatened?

[Joshuatree]

We will see about 2.30 aus time.. Im a little out on a limb here lying on an irrational mkt branch, swaying in the wind.

[Joshuatree]

$90-$93 mill npat reaffirmed for starters

[winner69]

Didn't seem to be anything new in all those presentations - just regurgitation of previous stuff.

None the wiser? Except FY profit shouldn't be a surprise now.

Issue is do all those analysts etc believe the 'growth' story?

[trader_jackson]

Didn't seem to be anything new in all those presentations - just regurgitation of previous stuff.

None the wiser? Except FY profit shouldn't be a surprise now.

Issue is do all those analysts etc believe the 'growth' story?

Clearly not. in fact they don't seem to believe anything these days because FXL is still trading at 6.8 PE - they aren't meant to be a dividend stock (now that they reduced their dividend payout to 30 - 50%, to support growth), yet the 5 ish % yield would indicate otherwise.

Made all the right noises during the conference thingy as well, apparently.

I am baffled.

[winner69]

Clearly not. in fact they don't seem to believe anything these days because FXL is still trading at 6.8 PE - they aren't meant to be a dividend stock (now that they reduced their dividend payout to 30 - 50%, to support growth), yet the 5 ish % yield would indicate otherwise.

Made all the right noises during the conference thingy as well, apparently.

I am baffled.

Business too complicated and too hard too understand? with some execution risks in some of their growth initiatives?

Share price / value is generally 'set' by the big boys in town. CBA seem to have all they want and a couple of others who have filed SSH lately maybe have their quota as well. Who will get excited next?

[t.rexjr]

Clearly not. in fact they don't seem to believe anything these days because FXL is still trading at 6.8 PE - they aren't meant to be a dividend stock (now that they reduced their dividend payout to 30 - 50%, to support growth), yet the 5 ish % yield would indicate otherwise.

Made all the right noises during the conference thingy as well, apparently.

I am baffled.

The yield was exactly the reason I bought in. Can't fathom why it sp would drop below these lows. If the growth storey transpires then thats always a bonus. Sounded plausable (as all presentaions do). In a year or few they reinstate the full dividend and we're laughing!

[Joshuatree]

Webcast finished late in the day and a lot of info there. Will the s/p respond more favourably tomorrow when analysts can present their reccos?. Has the mkt been convinced that FXL is still as good growth story (i am) but there are pieces of the business that need work (certegy esp) and more money needs to grow Ireland etc. The cards business is very exciting with so many ways to grow it with leading edge devices that everyone has; their smart phones:D.Its a 2 year story? and atm a wall of worry is building re a poss mkt correction, housing correction etc.

[macduffy]

Isn't it a sector issue rather than a Flexigroup problem? Increasing concern about household indebtedness in Australia is playing havoc with all financial services stocks, banks included, and with other consumer/retail companies. Personally, I won't be touching any of them until there's a reversal, economic and market-wise.

This is still the issue, IMO.

[Joshuatree]

Double whammy!!? Heard you the first time mac. Happy to hold this for now; so much going on with this company ;even if they get most of the ducks lined up; the cards business could be phenomenal plus all the other leading edge tech things like loans by phones especially small ones; they are prob going to increase in this climate; just my opinion DYOR.

[macduffy]

Sorry for the heavy sell, Jt.

:blush:

It's just that I have the feeling that discussion on this thread doesn't seem to be giving enough weight to the macro effect on the sector.

Cheers

[Joshuatree]

Understood .I forgot to put an emoticon in my post:mellow:. Thanks for sharing your concern. My thinking is we will muddle on through and all the services FXL offer will be in heavy usage. But there is a growing wall of worry out there for sure.

[Joshuatree]

Early days but so far so good; up another 5c atm to $1.73; good demand ,600,000 through already.

[trader_jackson]

Seems to be losing a bit of steam this afternoon, but I wouldn't be surprised if this stock broke above $1.80 this week.

Crazy stupid it is still below $2 really, but it is what it is! At least the upwards trend is a nice reversal of the short and pretty sharp downward trend since the 'downgrade' of $1m (yes just 1 million - about 2% off the top end of previous guidance) was mentioned at the start of May.

[t.rexjr]

Seems to be losing a bit of steam this afternoon, but I wouldn't be surprised if this stock broke above $1.80 this week.

Crazy stupid it is still below $2 really, but it is what it is! At least the upwards trend is a nice reversal of the short and pretty sharp downward trend since the 'downgrade' of $1m (yes just 1 million - about 2% off the top end of previous guidance) was mentioned at the start of May.

The silly thing is, they were still within guidence. There was no obligation for the 'downgrade'. I wonder where the SP would be had they not...

Anyway thus far am happy they did

[trader_jackson]

Rumor has it $1.80 by the end of this week ;)

[Joshuatree]

I arrived at the bright blue Future Proof Tardus Trips building and showed them my lucky lottery ticket that gave me 5 mins into the future ( max 1 week to 5 years ,2 weeks , 5 hours, 11 mins, and 3 secs) to find i had been queue jumped; now i know WHO.:scared:. I wanted to find some solution to saving the planet and to see if the Jaboticaba tree i planted had finally relented and started to yield its purple black grape sized ,thick skinned under tension fruits that burst when bitten gently and send a paroxysm of pleasure to ones taste buds:drool:. Never would i want to waste that once in a lifetime experience on what a beaten up s/p is doing!!!??? Is it you yourself there??

[t.rexjr]

I arrived at the bright blue Future Proof Tardus Trips building and showed them my lucky lottery ticket that gave me 5 mins into the future ( max 1 week to 5 years ,2 weeks , 5 hours, 11 mins, and 3 secs) to find i had been queue jumped; now i know WHO.:scared:. I wanted to find some solution to saving the planet and to see if the Jaboticaba tree i planted had finally relented and started to yield its purple black grape sized ,thick skinned under tension fruits that burst when bitten gently and send a paroxysm of pleasure to ones taste buds:drool:. Never would i want to waste that once in a lifetime experience on what a beaten up s/p is doing!!!??? Is it you yourself there??

Whoever, whatever, this voodoo is working. Fear not it sounds like the ticket grants foresight to more than one fruit yield.

[Joshuatree]

Sure is but the Prophet is two days early!!?:scared::sleep::t_up: 2.349 million shares through today too.

[winner69]

Hope you guys are right that FXL is cheap as

Good day today .......must be the momentum to get to $2.00 next week ......and then it could go anywhere ....maybe even as high as its where its been in the past

No worries

[trader_jackson]

Hope you guys are right that FXL is cheap as

Good day today .......must be the momentum to get to $2.00 next week ......and then it could go anywhere ....maybe even as high as its where its been in the past

No worries

yea - crazy that after the F&P acquisition it shot up above $3... even more crazy that it was once nearly at $5...

[t.rexjr]

A few good days now. Looks like confidence may be returning.

[winner69]

A few good days now. Looks like confidence may be returning.

Yep, $2 tomorrow

Good fun



Do Aussies do window dressing at quarter's end?

[trader_jackson]

Yep, $2 tomorrow

Good fun



Do Aussies do window dressing at quarter's end?

Would be nice if it got back to $2 so fast, before than took that 1m off profit forecast the share price was $2.35 or something so really it should never have gone under $2, crazy that even at that price (which is still way above todays price) PE for a growing company is still under 10... still crazy, just less crazy than when the share price was $1.50 odd less than 2 weeks ago.

Not sure on the window dressing, but if anything, if flexi's share price was a 'window' its fair to say it was smashed, and looted big time for a good month and a half ... for nearly no reason, good to see it is now being repaired, although still a long way to go before its back in any reasonable (and more realistic) shape of course

[Joshuatree]

Thanks TJ for sharing this one. Still very early days but so far the rerating is very pleasing, am up 13% already. Your researching and analytical skills are great as is your generously sharing them and finding this stock ;which 97% of the mkt was blind to; really weird the apathy on various chatsites etc I've perused or enthused on FXL. All good as the mkt is coming in now:t_up: Our gain ; kudos to you. Hope i haven't hexed it.:ohmy:

[Joshuatree]

Nice announcement on the final day of the FY. Just as excited about the card biz as ever.Significant new $550 mill funding facility on improved terms.
PDF (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01870300)

[trader_jackson]

On a day when the asx lost A$28b, I thought FXL held up extremly well (with just 1.4% shaved off)

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170630/pdf/43kb2vqxggw115.pdf

This $550 million 'gem' probably helped - clearly the "major US bank with extensive global operations" has 0 concern about flexi, yet the recent share price performance, which wiped hundreds of millions of dollars off the market cap in a matter of weeks, on the back of a 2m (yes, just 2) narrowing of profit forecast... You'd think this big US bank, who gave FXL a facility that was nearly the same as their market cap at one stage, wouldn't have done this if they believed FXL was about to hit huge difficulties (as the sharp drop in share price would also semi suggest).. probably conducted more due dilligence that I imagine Mr Market can gather as well.

Should be $2 by the end of next week you'd think... then at least we are close to being half way to their previous high;)

[trader_jackson]

On a day when the asx lost A$28b, I thought FXL held up extremly well (with just 1.4% shaved off)

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170630/pdf/43kb2vqxggw115.pdf

This $550 million 'gem' probably helped - clearly the "major US bank with extensive global operations" has 0 concern about flexi, yet the recent share price performance, which wiped hundreds of millions of dollars off the market cap in a matter of weeks, on the back of a 2m (yes, just 2) narrowing of profit forecast... You'd think this big US bank, who gave FXL a facility that was nearly the same as their market cap at one stage, wouldn't have done this if they believed FXL was about to hit huge difficulties (as the sharp drop in share price would also semi suggest).. probably conducted more due dilligence that I imagine Mr Market can gather as well.

Should be $2 by the end of next week you'd think... then at least we are close to being half way to their previous high;)

here we are, nearly a month on a Flexi is inching, very slowly, back to $2... passed $1.90 earlier, and that was despite AFR reporting Citi basically singling out flexigroup as having downside risk this reporting season.
Surely $2 end of next week? (if we can't hit it in the next two and a half days!)

[Joshuatree]

Well past the 60DMA atm TJ, but on light vol. Fingers and everything else crossed the momentum continues.Average t/p $2.27 on 4traders fwiw.

[Joshuatree]

Results announced 15th August.

[trader_jackson]

Well the day is nearly upon us, two things I'll be looking for: 90m or more Cash profit this year and Pofit outlook - will we return to double digit growth? +

If so, a big re-rating is required over the coming days/weeks/months

https://simplywall.st/news/2017/08/14/why-did-flexigroup-limiteds-asxfxl-insiders-buy-up-more-shares/
You'd think with all the insider buying it wouldn't be that bad

[Joshuatree]

Shouldn't be any surprises in the results its been well telegraphed.May well be a lot of profit taking and the detail and outlook something to determine sentiment and create a new momentum hopefully.

[t.rexjr]

Pretty much as per expected...
Cash NPAT outlook flat or dipping. Would have thought a rise was on the cards. Perhaps just not counting chickens and may well prove to be conservative.
Ireland looks promising with 600 retailers on trial
Aussie card growth a highlight
I'm buying the story. Looks very much undervalued to me given the growth outlook.

[winner69]

Was it bad news or something t_j

Getting close to closing this punt down

Hard to see it getting to 2 bucks now

At least the shareprice hasn't collpased as much as Dominos

[trader_jackson]

Annual results came out... this year was in line with expected, it was next year that wasn't so hot... showed no or up to 6ish% drop in profit... not surprisingly investors voted with their feet... the retail investors were first to panic with the share price falling double digits to hit $1.65, on low opening volume. Finished down 5%... and I'm thinking it will be above $1.80 in no time... once people put their patience and thinking caps back on.

What the annual results showed was EPS of 24.3 cps... confirming what I have said for a long while... that FXL is trading on ridiculously cheap valuations (7.2 at todays closing price)... then again what today also showed is the reason why (reason for now at least)... due to profit expected to be stagnant or slightly off this coming year. What didn't help was the dividend being near rock bottom of the payout ratio (being same as half year - representing bang on 4% yield at today's closing price (fully franked for the aussies).

Ironically, the underlying business (notably excluding certegy which is one of the key reasons for the stagnant profit) is expected to improve by 5 - 10m, well up from the slideshow last year showing 1 - 6m imporvement in underlying business.

Opearting cash flows were yet again a highlight, and impairments actually decreasing to their lowest point in years also a slight surprise (for me)... top line growth also there which will flow through to bottom line, just quite this coming year - the aussies are an impatient lot and those in for a quick buck punished share price accordingly (hard to believe it went down to $1.55 earlier in the year - truly stupid times that was)

FY18 will be one of stabilisation (as mentioned by management) and could even provide some upside in 2nd half.
FY19 is now the big one... very interesting and informative presentation (makes a nice change!) - I encourage you and others to take a look - can explain much more about the business than I ever could.

I believe we are in the middle of a turn around, and going to start the upward swing, if not already on it. I reckon $2 by Mid Feb next year (although I would have liked for that to have been a few weeks ago - but the market doesn't like waiting)

At the end of the day, if you can't wait 6 months to a year, and don't want an above bank interest rate being given to you while you wait, don't buy flexi.
If you want a stock priced over 2x cheaper than HBL, and likely to provide similar double digit growth in a year's time, and you're happy to wait and get a little bit of cash in the mean time, FXL should be on the shopping list.

[t.rexjr]

Annual results came out... this year was in line with expected, it was next year that wasn't so hot... showed no or up to 6ish% drop in profit... not surprisingly investors voted with their feet... the retail investors were first to panic with the share price falling double digits to hit $1.65, on low opening volume. Finished down 5%... and I'm thinking it will be above $1.80 in no time... once people put their patience and thinking caps back on.

What the annual results showed was EPS of 24.3 cps... confirming what I have said for a long while... that FXL is trading on ridiculously cheap valuations (7.2 at todays closing price)... then again what today also showed is the reason why (reason for now at least)... due to profit expected to be stagnant or slightly off this coming year. What didn't help was the dividend being near rock bottom of the payout ratio (being same as half year - representing bang on 4% yield at today's closing price (fully franked for the aussies).

Ironically, the underlying business (notably excluding certegy which is one of the key reasons for the stagnant profit) is expected to improve by 5 - 10m, well up from the slideshow last year showing 1 - 6m imporvement in underlying business.

Opearting cash flows were yet again a highlight, and impairments actually decreasing to their lowest point in years also a slight surprise (for me)... top line growth also there which will flow through to bottom line, just quite this coming year - the aussies are an impatient lot and those in for a quick buck punished share price accordingly (hard to believe it went down to $1.55 earlier in the year - truly stupid times that was)

FY18 will be one of stabilisation (as mentioned by management) and could even provide some upside in 2nd half.
FY19 is now the big one... very interesting and informative presentation (makes a nice change!) - I encourage you and others to take a look - can explain much more about the business than I ever could.

I believe we are in the middle of a turn around, and going to start the upward swing, if not already on it. I reckon $2 by Mid Feb next year (although I would have liked for that to have been a few weeks ago - but the market doesn't like waiting)

At the end of the day, if you can't wait 6 months to a year, and don't want an above bank interest rate being given to you while you wait, don't buy flexi.
If you want a stock priced over 2x cheaper than HBL, and likely to provide similar double digit growth in a year's time, and you're happy to wait and get a little bit of cash in the mean time, FXL should be on the shopping list.

Agreed. I'm glad someone has taken the time to articulate my internal synopsis clearly...

The exodus of the dividend collectors along with the lack of opportunity for a quick buck explains the volatility for my mind. A change of guard so to speak.

Holding both HBL and FXL in my investment portfolio so was mulling over the pros and cons of holding both today. Maybe I'm a sucker for their fresh & fancy marketing but FXL has me a little more enthusiastic.

Golly gosh, buying today through ANZ was tedious. Put in my order for $1.66 and the share price came and went in the seemingly 10hrs it took for my order to be placed. Ended up having to chase the price back up again. I do my trading through ASB and it's significantly faster!

[Elles]

Interesting interview on their website if you haven't seen it yet:

https://www.flexigroup.com.au/FY17-full-year-results-video

It sounds like FY19 will be much improved, but investments are needed this and next year to (hopefully) achieve this. The reducing EPS and dividend and increasing debt costs in FY17 are not very encouraging, although in future they'll use the reduced dividends to reduce debt costs.

Contemplating whether to sell out and see how FY18 goes before deciding whether to buy back in. I only have a few so the dividend is going to get slashed by bank fees anyway, and I can't see much improvement in the share price since the dividends and FY18 forecast are reduced, so people's short term valuation would also reduce (even though it's on a low PE).

Would be interested to hear more thoughts on this.

[trader_jackson]

Interesting interview on their website if you haven't seen it yet:

https://www.flexigroup.com.au/FY17-full-year-results-video

It sounds like FY19 will be much improved, but investments are needed this and next year to (hopefully) achieve this. The reducing EPS and dividend and increasing debt costs in FY17 are not very encouraging, although in future they'll use the reduced dividends to reduce debt costs.

Contemplating whether to sell out and see how FY18 goes before deciding whether to buy back in. I only have a few so the dividend is going to get slashed by bank fees anyway, and I can't see much improvement in the share price since the dividends and FY18 forecast are reduced, so people's short term valuation would also reduce (even though it's on a low PE).

Would be interested to hear more thoughts on this.

FY18 isn't going to be flash - I think they made this quite clear, although the 2nd half of FY18 should start seeing the right trends.
What makes FXL a bit unique is that the founder owns well over 20% of the company - he has been there when it has gone from $2.60 in Dec of 2006 when FXL listed to 23 cents just 2 years later, he has been there when it has subsequently rebounded to mid $4 7 years later... he is also still there now - with no selling - today, where the share price has more than halved... he has also been there since day 0... he is likely not concerned with the coming year, and past 2 years being a bit 'rough', he is in the game in a big way and has been for a long time, and likely will continue to be, and happy to wait it out... (asx investors on the other hand might not be so happy to wait it out!)

FXL are investing to reposition themselves and I believe they will do a good job of this - they have done in the past. The market is still not convinced, hence the PE of just 7, but once things begin to show through in up to year's time, possibly a bit sooner, a re-rating will occur, like it did around 7 years ago and it could be quite logical for FXL to be trading at a PE of 20+ (it has done in the past).

They have the right staff, F&P is well integrated, they have the money ('headroom') ready to lend, they have the customer base, they are investing in the latest and greatest technologies and new markets - now they need to execute, which can take some time (see the slides on how long it takes to 'convert' a customer - I haven't seen this info disclosed before but found it quite interesting)

I doub't the share price will go much lower than its current point - 4 traders still has FXL average target price at over $2 (despite recent downgrades), not to mention the 4ish odd percent dividend at current prices - which isn't terrible and far from peanuts. Then again I don't think the share price will go up much past $2 until confirmation of FXL's turnaround can be seen (although I think it should get back to $2 within a years time).

(I am not sure what bank fees you are paying to receive this dividend? I get my dividend in NZD - and FXL do this all for me)

[Elles]

Thanks TJ, yes I agree it sounds promising for the future, and dividend is indeed set to go straight to my NZ bank account. That's another benefit in itself, a lot easier/cheaper than having to bank a AUD cheque or only offering direct credit to an Ozzie account (not even cheques) like PGC!

[winner69]

Close at 158

FLX is really becoming a dog of a stock

Time to cut my losses methinks - haven't been paying enough attention ......bad me

[trader_jackson]

Close at 158

FLX is really becoming a dog of a stock

Time to cut my losses methinks - haven't been paying enough attention ......bad me

It is not the only one getting a hammering lately, whole financial sector in Aussie having a bad run lately, from insurers to banks. Nearly the whole sector in the red today.

Crazy stuff really because Aussie economy doing its best in 4 years (or something), you'd think people would be out buying, spending and traveling (on FXL's cards, eg the flight center MasterCard you now see advertised on TV)

Management made it clear there isn't going to be much improvement for a year from annual results, so a while to wait - majority shareholder, who is also the chairman and founder clearly couldn't care less about 'another lost year' because he hasn't sold a cent. I, along with Mr Chairman/Founder/Majority Shareholder will just have to continue receiving an above 1 year term deposit rate dividend, and live to die another day.

[t.rexjr]

Ex div yesterday, but didn't think it would drop too much if at all. That said I did sell half yesterday as I felt I was a little over weight. I have faith, and time...

[winner69]

I sometimes wonder if the emphasis they put on 'securitisation' (when they talk about leverage) makes punters a bit wary.

[trader_jackson]

I sometimes wonder if the emphasis they put on 'securitisation' (when they talk about leverage) makes punters a bit wary.

I'm sure it does... I know a few people have wondered "why is debt so high" when it is quite normal for their business model.. isn't securitisation meant to 'help' turners with their EPS growth or something?

[percy]

I'm sure it does... I know a few people have wondered "why is debt so high" when it is quite normal for their business model.. isn't securitisation meant to 'help' turners with their EPS growth or something?

It certainly does.
In Turners case the loans being securitised are low risk, as Turners have a history of low default loans.
So Turners get cash up front from the sale of the loans, packaged up and sold securitised,and can then recycle the funds.
GFC was caused by poor low grade loans being packaged up and sold as first grade loans.
It is therefore very important to understand the quality of the loans being packaged up and securitised.

[trader_jackson]

It certainly does.
In Turners case the loans being securitised are low risk, as Turners have a history of low default loans.
So Turners get cash up front from the sale of the loans, packaged up and sold securitised,and can then recycle the funds.
GFC was caused by poor low grade loans being packaged up and sold as first grade loans.
It is therefore very important to understand the quality of the loans being packaged up and securitised.

What is turners impairment percentage?
I believe FXL Group Impairment / ANR percentage is 2.9% I thought this was low-ish, or is it high?

[percy]

You will need to check for your self,as I am not sure I am giving the right figures .
From TRA's annual report pg 36.Impairment provision expense $2,026,000 against revenue from continuing operations $249,338,000.
therefore under 1%.
And yes 2.9% is lowish.

[winner69]

What is turners impairment percentage?
I believe FXL Group Impairment / ANR percentage is 2.9% I thought this was low-ish, or is it high?

The 2.9% figure seens very (very) high even though they tout improved credit management. Doesn't seeing 3% of your receivables being written off raise some concerns?

Impairment expense was $63m - fair chunck of their net revenue eh.

TNR same calc is 1.0% (ANR is Average Net Receivables)

That other finance company Heartland runs at 0.4%

[trader_jackson]

The 2.9% figure seens very (very) high even though they tout improved credit management. Doesn't seeing 3% of your receivables being written off raise some concerns?

Impairment expense was $63m - fair chunck of their net revenue eh.

TNR same calc is 1.0% (ANR is Average Net Receivables)

That other finance company Heartland runs at 0.4%

Given they are in the credit card market (mostly these days), I'm not sure its that easy to compare to Turners and Heartland... what other company would be a better comparable? Something very much in the consumer credit space, lending on smaller ticket items (generally)

[percy]

Given they are in the credit card market (mostly these days), I'm not sure its that easy to compare to Turners and Heartland... what other company would be a better comparable? Something very much in the consumer credit space, lending on smaller ticket items (generally)

CCV,CGR,MNY,MYS,and PNC are others you could use for comparison.
As I have over weight positions with both HBL and TRA in NZ, I have not researched them,so can't give an opinion,other than PNC may be the best prospect for continued growth.I note DMX, who I follow ,have them in their portfolio.

[winner69]

Given they are in the credit card market (mostly these days), I'm not sure its that easy to compare to Turners and Heartland... what other company would be a better comparable? Something very much in the consumer credit space, lending on smaller ticket items (generally)

I only calculated the ratio for TRA because you bought Turners up

Suppose you did so to be smart to have a dig at Turners. But as Turners looked better its now not a fair comparison eh.

I quickly looked at MNY. Looks like they run at 7% odd ......but not a good comparison given they seem to operate at the lower end of the market and lend are almost a pay day lender or something

Whatever I still reckon Flexi bad debts are high and back to my original point I am uneasy about the emphasis they put on securitisation when discussing leverage

[winner69]

Had another look at the $63m bad debts

Still seems an awful lot - esp compared to $360m of net income.

[trader_jackson]

Had another look at the $63m bad debts

Still seems an awful lot - esp compared to $360m of net income.

Maybe... it is very orientated to consumer credit... back in 2013 when the share price was nearing $5, Impairment losses on loans & receivables were 27m vs net income of 217m - so it was 12.4% back then and 17.5% today (19.8% last year - trending down back to 12%?).
Seems it has always been high, yet the share price is more than 3x lower than back then

Other key metrics to maybe consider:
Profit back in 2013 was 66m vs 87m this year
Operating Cash Flows back in 2013 were 97m vs 161m this year

[percy]

Maybe... it is very orientated to consumer credit... back in 2013 when the share price was nearing $5, Impairment losses on loans & receivables were 27m vs net income of 217m - so it was 12.4% back then and 17.5% today (19.8% last year - trending down back to 12%?).
Seems it has always been high, yet the share price is more than 3x lower than back then

Other key metrics to maybe consider:
Profit back in 2013 was 66m vs 87m this year
Operating Cash Flows back in 2013 were 97m vs 161m this year

I am very surprised by the high impairements.
FXL brought FPF,whose business was basically the same as Smiths City Finance,and their impairements were exceedingly low.Still are.

[trader_jackson]

I am very surprised by the high impairements.
FXL brought FPF,whose business was basically the same as Smiths City Finance,and their impairements were exceedingly low.Still are.

It seems FPF (now New Zealand Cards) is running at 13.4% (12.6m / 93.9m) it is below FXL's average for this year. In fact both NZ Operations are doing well compared to their aussie counterparts well - NZ leasing is just 2.1%. Australia Cards is 'the baddy' running at over 28%... apparently this "reflects growth in loans" , should improve going forward (maybe?).

Those American banking guys that recently gaven them the that new $550m facility at the end of June mustn't be to worried (they did their due diligence as well apparently)... so no worries.

In their annual report they seem to like talking about "mproved recoveries from continuous management of arrears" or words to that effect... so maybe they really are trying to work on it? Hopefully the half year result confirms this... could start to see the 'promised turnaround' (shame it is still a good 5 months away....)

[percy]

If it is any help I have just checked SCY finance comany's impairments.
2016 loan book $94.5 mil,impairments $1.3mil or 1.38%
2017 loan book $79.2 mil,impairments $1.2mil or 1.52% which is interesting as the loan book reduced 16.2%.
Their loan book is made up of fixed instalment and revolving credit.
While the revolving credit remained nearly the same,the fixed instalments reduced from $73.7 mil to $59.6 mil or just over 19%.
Why.? I can't believe people stopped buying on instalments,so they must have arranged finance elsewhere.

[winner69]

FXL is turning into a real dog eh

At least it's up today so far

Wish I had sold the lot in the high 180's a while ago instead of holding on to some

I doubt it will ever be a real winner from here .....just hoping it gets back close to 200 sooner than later

Being 35% down from last year is really really bad

[trader_jackson]

It was not a pretty picture painted on page 33 of the annual report... so far FY18 is on track to be the 5th year in a row of negative TSR... slow and steady usually does it, just not when it is in the complete wrong direction.


I could only find 1 share price that was lower than the finish price today, yet ironically their cash EPS is higher than the share price low of $1.60 in 2012...
Still makes me laugh that the share price closed at $4.36 in 2013, yet Cash EPS was less than today...


For what its worth, and right now its probably worth more than FXL's share price (but that's not hard when its sub $1.60)
Comments
- Flight Centre Card: seems to have been a fair amount of spend in NZ & Aussie related to setup, and ideally profit will start coming through from this late FY18
- branded finance programs: Bit of commentary on this but I'll touch on the partnership with Australia’s second largest dental group. "Rollout of this solution occurred in the second half of FY17 and was well received by our vendor partners. As a result of this successful rollout we have had a number of discussions with other large scale dental practices aspiring to offer similar products." - sounds interesting and could be some more deals signed, profit from this will hopefully start coming through FY18
- Since buying F&P cards 2 years ago, merchants partnered with QCard have gone up by 1000 (fun fact), this should contribute to growth I would have thought...and now that the old closed loop QCard has now been converted to QMasterCard - and the costs inccured in this mostly related to FY17, hopefully profit will start to climb nicely in FY18 and beyond (average spend is up by 9% - another bonus)
- Oxipay was launched in FY18 with 549 retailers already on board although I wouldn't expect to see profit from this until 2nd half FY18, perhaps FY19.
- FLexi-Fi (Ireland business) was setup in June 2017 with 60 stores, again probably won't see profit from this till 2nd half FY18, maybe even FY19
- New global card definitely on the way - first time I had heard of this, but the market couldn't seem to care less. Sounds like it could be a premium based card, high spend, 'high reward' card.
- They seem to be developing systems, some proprietary even, which are costing a fair bit of time and money, but are based around selling not only the best product, but multiple products (cross selling) given Flexi have a few good offerings now setup - this could be very nice as well.
- Partnership with Lenovo for Managed services - certainly not a bad thing for the commercial arm!
- The elephant in the room I think is Certegy: how 'bad' will this be (right now the market is pricing in a blood bath, and management don't sound to be terribly confident for FY18. ”Investment in Certegy during FY18 will return the business to growth in FY19" screams to me another backwards year, but things to turn around in FY19.
- Aussie commercial sounds releatively similar to Certegy - although it sounds like a turnaround back to profit growth is on the cards this year
- Fun Fact: the founder owns more shares than he did last year and retail holders have been exiting with total shareholders down 900 ish (to 11727, although well up from 2014 where they 3302 less)


For me, the key areas of growth FY18 and particularly FY19 will be:
Aussie & NZ Cards, and on a more minor scale, Flexi-Fi, Oxipay.
Why? big costs have been incurred this year, it usually takes 9 to 11 months to make a customer profitable (for cards anyway)

Consensus is for 85.9m, basically bang on the bottom of their range so right now the market is pricing in a miner fall in profit... The market is quite literally pricing in none of the above potential areas for growth... I suppose then again this is due to flexi confirming no growth expected this year... and given previous years, brokers have taken (near) the worst possible view.


Don't know how it can go much lower given the above - and ideally first half update will start to show/confirm some progress, with 2nd half really starting to take off into FY19.


One for my bottom draw that is for sure... will see how things are in February 2019. I don't quite want to say it, but I am thinking the $1.50 ish area is well and truly the bottom.

[winner69]

It was not a pretty picture painted on page 33 of the annual report... so far FY18 is on track to be the 5th year in a row of negative TSR... slow and steady usually does it, just not when it is in the complete wrong direction.


I could only find 1 share price that was lower than the finish price today, yet ironically their cash EPS is higher than the share price low of $1.60 in 2012...
Still makes me laugh that the share price closed at $4.36 in 2013, yet Cash EPS was less than today...


For what its worth, and right now its probably worth more than FXL's share price (but that's not hard when its sub $1.60)
Comments
- Flight Centre Card: seems to have been a fair amount of spend in NZ & Aussie related to setup, and ideally profit will start coming through from this late FY18
- branded finance programs: Bit of commentary on this but I'll touch on the partnership with Australia’s second largest dental group. "Rollout of this solution occurred in the second half of FY17 and was well received by our vendor partners. As a result of this successful rollout we have had a number of discussions with other large scale dental practices aspiring to offer similar products." - sounds interesting and could be some more deals signed, profit from this will hopefully start coming through FY18
- Since buying F&P cards 2 years ago, merchants partnered with QCard have gone up by 1000 (fun fact), this should contribute to growth I would have thought...and now that the old closed loop QCard has now been converted to QMasterCard - and the costs inccured in this mostly related to FY17, hopefully profit will start to climb nicely in FY18 and beyond (average spend is up by 9% - another bonus)
- Oxipay was launched in FY18 with 549 retailers already on board although I wouldn't expect to see profit from this until 2nd half FY18, perhaps FY19.
- FLexi-Fi (Ireland business) was setup in June 2017 with 60 stores, again probably won't see profit from this till 2nd half FY18, maybe even FY19
- New global card definitely on the way - first time I had heard of this, but the market couldn't seem to care less. Sounds like it could be a premium based card, high spend, 'high reward' card.
- They seem to be developing systems, some proprietary even, which are costing a fair bit of time and money, but are based around selling not only the best product, but multiple products (cross selling) given Flexi have a few good offerings now setup - this could be very nice as well.
- Partnership with Lenovo for Managed services - certainly not a bad thing for the commercial arm!
- The elephant in the room I think is Certegy: how 'bad' will this be (right now the market is pricing in a blood bath, and management don't sound to be terribly confident for FY18. ”Investment in Certegy during FY18 will return the business to growth in FY19" screams to me another backwards year, but things to turn around in FY19.
- Aussie commercial sounds releatively similar to Certegy - although it sounds like a turnaround back to profit growth is on the cards this year
- Fun Fact: the founder owns more shares than he did last year and retail holders have been exiting with total shareholders down 900 ish (to 11727, although well up from 2014 where they 3302 less)


For me, the key areas of growth FY18 and particularly FY19 will be:
Aussie & NZ Cards, and on a more minor scale, Flexi-Fi, Oxipay.
Why? big costs have been incurred this year, it usually takes 9 to 11 months to make a customer profitable (for cards anyway)

Consensus is for 85.9m, basically bang on the bottom of their range so right now the market is pricing in a miner fall in profit... The market is quite literally pricing in none of the above potential areas for growth... I suppose then again this is due to flexi confirming no growth expected this year... and given previous years, brokers have taken (near) the worst possible view.


Don't know how it can go much lower given the above - and ideally first half update will start to show/confirm some progress, with 2nd half really starting to take off into FY19.


One for my bottom draw that is for sure... will see how things are in February 2019. I don't quite want to say it, but I am thinking the $1.50 ish area is well and truly the bottom.

Good summary of the good points. Might get some more punters having a go.

Hope it gets to 180 odd soon so I can unload the rest (average price is about 70 cents anyway but I want 180 at least

The 5 year chart is really really sad eh - tells an awful story - and could get much worse

I think that guy holding so much of the company is a real hindrance as far as the share price goes. Puts off the bigger long term investors ....and the day traders aren't interested any more.

Let's hope for better times - but hope is not a strategy they say

[trader_jackson]

Good summary of the good points. Might get some more punters having a go.

Hope it gets to 180 odd soon so I can unload the rest (average price is about 70 cents anyway but I want 180 at least

The 5 year chart is really really sad eh - tells an awful story - and could get much worse

I think that guy holding so much of the company is a real hindrance as far as the share price goes. Puts off the bigger long term investors ....and the day traders aren't interested any more.

Let's hope for better times - but hope is not a strategy they say

You're right winner in many points... the day traders have only been interested in shorting, and they have so far got there way.
The 5 year chart would go hand in hand with the table on the top of page 33 - sad that flexi use to be a market darling trading at 20+ PE with ever increasing profits since listing.
Well the profits have continued to hit record highs (in some respects) but the same cannot be said for the share price or PE, the PE is now back below 7, about half that of the banks - yet you'd think with the supposedly overvalued aussie and nz housing market, and their exposure to consumer financing (of course), alongside rigorous and continuous political pressure (even more so than what is on Flexi), they'd be in a similar, or at least remotely similar, PE to Flexi... or the other way around.

However, I'm not sure how much worse it can get, 5 PE? 4 PE? if the PE contraction continues, it might just earn "the cheapest stock on the ASX award", which is hard to get with thousands of companies listed, and probably not an award management are gunning for either.

Hopefully the sad times stop soon - but management are going to have to pull their fingers out, stop continuous wealth destruction these past few years, and prove they are in a turn around with real numbers, across the board.

[trader_jackson]

Under 6.5 PE now, crazy stuff really... as it was pointed out on HC today... Capex was 24.6m last year, and is going to be 28 to 31m this year. So Cash NPAT this year was 90.3 take the increase in capex off that and we 84 to 87 against a forecast of 85 to 90. So capex accounts for pretty much the reduction. Not great when you want to see growth, but profit is not exactly skyrocketing downwards... yet here we are, the share price continuing to go down... man even the dividend is attractive again at over 5% (despite the large cut - to help fund growth - although I'm sure this will be lifted again in a few years time)

[winner69]

Under 6.5 PE now, crazy stuff really... as it was pointed out on HC today... Capex was 24.6m last year, and is going to be 28 to 31m this year. So Cash NPAT this year was 90.3 take the increase in capex off that and we 84 to 87 against a forecast of 85 to 90. So capex accounts for pretty much the reduction. Not great when you want to see growth, but profit is not exactly skyrocketing downwards... yet here we are, the share price continuing to go down... man even the dividend is attractive again at over 5% (despite the large cut - to help fund growth - although I'm sure this will be lifted again in a few years time)

Sadly it is crazy indeed

Are your mates on HC having you on ...or grasping at straws to make themselves feel happier

Since when has Capex been part of Cash NPAT?

Cash NPAT trend is still F16 $94.1m F17 $90.3 and F18 $85m (maybe $90m ifyou believe in the tooth fairy)

[trader_jackson]

Sadly it is crazy indeed

Are your mates on HC having you on ...or grasping at straws to make themselves feel happier

Since when has Capex been part of Cash NPAT?

Cash NPAT trend is still F16 $94.1m F17 $90.3 and F18 $85m (maybe $90m ifyou believe in the tooth fairy)

Time will tell which side of the spectrum FXL ends up producing, 90m or 85m - market consensus is for near the rock bottom so you'd think it wouldn't get much worse from a bit after when they announced results, but it has, at this rate you'd think FXL were going to miss 85m - with a PE this low you one would think the market is almost certain of a downgrade announcement to come, sooner rather than later.

One trend is for sure winner, if the share price downward trend continues like it has the past year, FXL will be the cheapest stock on the asx come this time next year.

[winner69]

Time will tell which side of the spectrum FXL ends up producing, 90m or 85m - market consensus is for near the rock bottom so you'd think it wouldn't get much worse from a bit after when they announced results, but it has, at this rate you'd think FXL were going to miss 85m - with a PE this low you one would think the market is almost certain of a downgrade announcement to come, sooner rather than later.

One trend is for sure winner, if the share price downward trend continues like it has the past year, FXL will be the cheapest stock on the asx come this time next year.

did you get the bit about Capex not being part of Cash NPAT?


Cheap is only in the eye of the beholder

[trader_jackson]

did you get the bit about Capex not being part of Cash NPAT?

Cheap is only in the eye of the beholder

Yes I did - bit silly of me to forget how capex is, well, capitalized (and the guy on HC)

None the less, I think you will be surprised (in a great way) to see where things are in 2 years time... if management can (finally) deliver.

[winner69]

OMG the share price has tumbled below 150 .....and I haven’t managed to quit all I had. That’ll teach me to hold out for higher prices.

How low can it go tj



i see the NZ Super Fund has some ....hmm

[trader_jackson]

OMG the share price has tumbled below 150 .....and I haven’t managed to quit all I had. That’ll teach me to hold out for higher prices.

How low can it go tj



i see the NZ Super Fund has some ....hmm

I was wondering when you were going to comment on the $1.50 "breach" - I just couldn't bring myself to do it, I was just that shocked (and it didn't help that OCA dropped to 94 cents yesterday either - can't believe that one is under $1).

Anyhow, I see it managed to just get to $1.50 today, after a sudden jump around 2pm - so I managed to 'compile' myself together to look at this thread again (I knew you'd be posting of course).

Kinda crazy to think if they got 90m- going off yesterday's close, they'd be in the 5 something price/earnings - kinda scary and very much unexplained that they hit a new near 7 year low despite no news (december 2010 I think was the last time the share price was under $1.50 - and FY2010 results were for $41m profit - now "worse case" this coming year is going to be more than twice that - funny how things change).

Hopefully someone will ask at the upcoming AGM why directors and management (except maybe Abercrombie, who already owns a quarter of the company) aren't loading up on shares at these seeminly unrealistically cheap shares. If they "confirm" profit guidance, and "believe" next year profits will start growing again, I can't see why FXL would be on a low 6 PE it is on today (and has been hanging around for a while). Market must be expecting a downgade - can be the only reason why this stupidly cheap stock is now even cheaper.

Not surprised the superfund have some, $94k I think (as at 30 June 2017), not sure when they brought them and certainly would not be surprising to see them buying more, not exactly much (they have $3.5m in OCA, again not much for the superfund...)

[cloggs]

Bought some of these today. Your comments seem very negative and the price of the shares has dropped, but they are making plenty of money. With the PE the way it is the rational man would say the price has to go up.

[winner69]

Bought some of these today. Your comments seem very negative and the price of the shares has dropped, but they are making plenty of money. With the PE the way it is the rational man would say the price has to go up.

Hope you are the one who finally brings good fortune to Flexi .....badly needs somebody to do that

Hope it’s $1.80 in next few weeks.




dont think it’s too undervalued

[trader_jackson]

Hope you are the one who finally brings good fortune to Flexi .....badly needs somebody to do that

Hope it’s $1.80 in next few weeks.




dont think it’s too undervalued

Crazy the past 2 days, we are vergining on new 6 or 7 or 10 or 20 year decade lows (feels like that), with it getting lower and lower into the $1.40's, then out of nowhere and in just 2 days we are knocking on $1.60, what is going on? Rumours about the AGM suddenly reversed or something?

Still a couple dollars to cheap, but a dozen or so cents up is better than continually going south.

[cloggs]

It seems strange that the price dropped as much as it did all the way back from Nov 2013. Just because profit was down a few % compare to last year when they are still making good profits.

[trader_jackson]

It seems strange that the price dropped as much as it did all the way back from Nov 2013. Just because profit was down a few % compare to last year when they are still making good profits.

They are making excellent profits - PE was in the 5's at one stage - one must remember that Mr Market looks towards the future, not the past... so Mr Market must not be to confident on the future...

Hard to believe FXL was on a 20 PE for a while and was a market darling, growth stock and all... imagine if we get back to those PE levels? stock could go up 400% odd.

[trader_jackson]

Me oh my... $1.70... we have hit the highest point since late August, dare I say it, it looks like Mr Market is starting to believe the Flexigroup story again.
Then again at a PE still around 6, it is a far cry from the 20+ PE days just a few years ago... probably back to $1.50 next week

[Joshuatree]

Dont jinx it :). it was this high in late nov, needs to push on to make a convincing trend imo.

[winner69]

At least being dismissed from the ASX200 hasn’t hurt the share price

The ignominy of that happening must hurt

[macduffy]

Has CBA been shorting FXL? I see that they have returned borrowed shares and have ceased to be a Substantial Shareholder.

[cloggs]

Big 8ct jump today. 1.5 million shares worth. You may get your wish Winner.

[Joshuatree]

Higher highs and lows. Heres hoping it keeps heading up the saucer this time.;)

[trader_jackson]

Interesting stuff really - finished at its highest point since 22nd August last year... maybe some rumors circulating that half year results, which are apparently exactly 1 month away, are starting to show the much awaited (and mentioned) 'turn around', if so a simple, even if only small, PE re-rating would be enough to push it back into something more reasonable aka something with a $2 in front of it.
or if not the half year results themselves, which I'm not expecting to show much of a turnaround, maybe the outlook with something tangible, like a full year profit upgrade at half year announcement.

The heavyish volumes also make this rally seem promising.

Who knows, maybe this time next year we'll be back in the 3's... here's hoping. One thing is for sure - any decent increase is long overdue (in my view)
Unfortunately can't get to exciting as flexi has a recent history of dashing my hopes and dreams aka failing to deliver anything meaningfully decent, other than commentary that 'the turn around is coming'

[wizAlvin]

I don't think FLX has been entered into the ASX competition closing very soon sunday!

[macduffy]

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/91867/aussie-parent-flexigroup-bringing-curtain-down-fisher-paykel-finances-long-running

One less avenue for fixed interest investment.

[trader_jackson]

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/91867/aussie-parent-flexigroup-bringing-curtain-down-fisher-paykel-finances-long-running

One less avenue for fixed interest investment.

Definitely makes sense, this form of funding would be expensive compared to their other funding sources (namely revolving wholesale debt facilities, asset backed securities program). I would think the synergies from acquiring F&P (although small in the context of flexi as a whole) will really start to show through this year.

Coincidentally, the share price is at the highest point since 10th August last year and up 12% for the year so far... the start of this new found (and long awaited) turn around will hopefully be confirmed at half year, and if not in the results itself, in the outlook statements.

The next few weeks will certainly be interesting for FlexiGroup hopefully in a good way.

[Joshuatree]

TJ Beware of hexing the s/p:D

[winner69]

One of those GOLDEN CROSSES on the chart?

That be very good ....and signals a return to the 240 market which has been a pretty solid level in the past

And then double from there and back to new highs

No worries ....it's all up from here

[percy]

One of those GOLDEN CROSSES on the chart?

That be very good ....and signals a return to the 240 market which has been a pretty solid level in the past

And then double from there and back to new highs

No worries ....it's all up from here

Has been a test of character for TJ and other holders.Well I trust holders have their day in the sun.!

[winner69]

Flexigroup shafted the FPF investors in NZ

Aussie company not needing these NZ investors anymore so all fair enough eh ...just highlights how ****ty most finance companies are anyway

FLX share price holding up well ...a real bargain at the moment

https://www.chrislee.co.nz/market-news

[macduffy]

Flexigroup shafted the FPF investors in NZ

Aussie company not needing these NZ investors anymore so all fair enough eh ...just highlights how ****ty most finance companies are anyway

FLX share price holding up well ...a real bargain at the moment

https://www.chrislee.co.nz/market-news

But we wouldn't buy a ****ty finance company's shares, would we?

;)

[JeremyALD]

But we wouldn't buy a ****ty finance company's shares, would we?

;)

Well....buying this 3 days ago was certainly unfortunate

[winner69]

Well....buying this 3 days ago was certainly unfortunate

Market obviously doesn’t like the $89m writeoffs and/or not convinced of the new digital thing.

Non-cash this time around so all honky dory ...but was cash once eh.

Wonder how bad debts provisioning going?

[winner69]

Definitely makes sense, this form of funding would be expensive compared to their other funding sources (namely revolving wholesale debt facilities, asset backed securities program). I would think the synergies from acquiring F&P (although small in the context of flexi as a whole) will really start to show through this year.

Coincidentally, the share price is at the highest point since 10th August last year and up 12% for the year so far... the start of this new found (and long awaited) turn around will hopefully be confirmed at half year, and if not in the results itself, in the outlook statements.

The next few weeks will certainly be interesting for FlexiGroup hopefully in a good way.


It’s all your fault share price tanking

JT already told you off .....that’ll be enough of a spanking

Do you think share price will go any lower?

[JeremyALD]

It’s all your fault share price tanking

JT already told you off .....that’ll be enough of a spanking

Do you think share price will go any lower?

I should of known better but the ridiculously low PE pulled me in.

[trader_jackson]

One of those GOLDEN CROSSES on the chart?

That be very good ....and signals a return to the 240 market which has been a pretty solid level in the past

And then double from there and back to new highs

No worries ....it's all up from here

Before you tell me off, I'm gonna tell you off here winner for not telling me off earlier, and, rather, joining me in implying we won't be going back down to stupidly low PE's, rather just stay at ridiculous low PE's Maybe management letting us know the bad news now before some great news come half year results, including a new card and new leasing and how much organic growth this is going to produce

[winner69]

The writedowns reduce FXL's book value by 24 cents

Share price maybe reacting to that

Companies that use defacto profit figures and do funny things with the numbers in their presentations are often judged (and valued) on one number that usually has some real meaning - its book value

But in FXL's case this has been found to be inflated as at last June with those now 'worthless' assets

Wished they hadn't mentioned those words 'bank convenants' though (in light of Fletchers announcment)

[winner69]

Was thinking FXL was at last going 2 steps forward and then 1 step backwards but it seems to have turned around since wiping $90m off the balance sheet ...its now 1 step forward and then 2 backwards

What's going on t_j?

Punters getting worried about the bad debts provision not being big enough .....or concerned about all the off balance sheet stuff

[trader_jackson]

Was thinking FXL was at last going 2 steps forward and then 1 step backwards but it seems to have turned around since wiping $90m off the balance sheet ...its now 1 step forward and then 2 backwards

What's going on t_j?

Punters getting worried about the bad debts provision not being big enough .....or concerned about all the off balance sheet stuff

Getting the bad (or worst of the bad news maybe) out of the way before the big Feb 20th maybe?
Things do seem to be going from bad to worse right now
That 'bloodbath' stuff wouldn't have helped

[winner69]

hey tj - you don't like announcements that dont tell the whole story

This FLX is a boomer

In line with expectations FlexiGroup reports Underlying Cash NPAT of $44 million, with 13% growth in volume and 4% growth in closing receivables at 31 December 2017 with Underlying Cash NPAT down 11% on pcp

Why did the leave the red bits out

And comparing H118 to H217 is a bit cheeky

[winner69]

Market loving the result - thats the main thing

No worries

[JeremyALD]

It's a decent result the big result is next year. They have their work cut out for them

[trader_jackson]

hey tj - you don't like announcements that dont tell the whole story

This FLX is a boomer

In line with expectations FlexiGroup reports Underlying Cash NPAT of $44 million, with 13% growth in volume and 4% growth in closing receivables at 31 December 2017 with Underlying Cash NPAT down 11% on pcp

Why did the leave the red bits out

And comparing H118 to H217 is a bit cheeky

This is probably the first results announcement in a good couple of years when the share price hasn't gone down on the same day - wasn't actually a bad result with unexpected adverse announcement (a trend of the previous several results announcements), hence the market loved it. But we aren't quite back to the days when flexi was a market darling

For the first time in a while when things do genuinely look like they have stabilized, and improving in some cases... although this hasn't quite flowed through to underlying cash NPAT growth (but looks like it will do). Slide 26 was what pleased me the most (although there wasn't much to be pleased by), volume trends all increasing from the 2nd half of 2017 (which admittedly was pretty weak) for 92% of the business. Certegy proving to be not as weak as expected, and while the AU consumer lease product will cause a bit of short term pain, overall it looks and feels like a good move. NZ Leasing has had a couple of strong years, so not terribly surprising to see it flat lining a bit.

I haven't even begun considering oxipay and flexi-fi (ireland), but they could turn out to be quite exciting in the coming year(s)

It finally does seem like things have bottomed out, and we are back on the up again - the share price seems to be saying the same thing.

[winner69]

This is probably the first results announcement in a good couple of years when the share price hasn't gone down on the same day - wasn't actually a bad result with unexpected adverse announcement (a trend of the previous several results announcements), hence the market loved it. But we aren't quite back to the days when flexi was a market darling

For the first time in a while when things do genuinely look like they have stabilized, and improving in some cases... although this hasn't quite flowed through to underlying cash NPAT growth (but looks like it will do). Slide 26 was what pleased me the most (although there wasn't much to be pleased by), volume trends all increasing from the 2nd half of 2017 (which admittedly was pretty weak) for 92% of the business. Certegy proving to be not as weak as expected, and while the AU consumer lease product will cause a bit of short term pain, overall it looks and feels like a good move. NZ Leasing has had a couple of strong years, so not terribly surprising to see it flat lining a bit.

I haven't even begun considering oxipay and flexi-fi (ireland), but they could turn out to be quite exciting in the coming year(s)

It finally does seem like things have bottomed out, and we are back on the up again - the share price seems to be saying the same thing.

All good eh

Going to break through 180 mark tomorrow and then it’s certain to go 200 plus where it should be.

[trader_jackson]

All good eh

Going to break through 180 mark tomorrow and then it’s certain to go 200 plus where it should be.

Right on cue... finished at $1.80, ASX 200 is up not even 1% since Friday's open, Flexi up nearly 15%

Hopefully these kind of outperformance continue... would make a good chance from years of underperformance


No worries

Back to that 200 mark soon surely

[Joshuatree]

Need a big volume day before i deign to lift my head up from my book (North Water) and nod.:sleep:

[trader_jackson]

Need a big volume day before i deign to lift my head up from my book (North Water) and nod.:sleep:

Fair enough - I really shouldn't get too excited because every time I do hope for a share price rise (back to something more reasonable) Mr Market swiftly smashes any such hope

[winner69]

Only a day or so away from 2 bucks now

No worries ....nothing to stop it now.

[trader_jackson]

Highest point in 7 months, 2 weeks of only going up (and gained nearly a quarter in value in that fortnight).
Can't believe it was even close to $1.50 just over 2 weeks ago... but I won't say anything more because every time I talk about how FXL is 'breaking out' it usually promptly does a u-turn

[Joshuatree]

Volume is heading the right way, will wait till friday.

[trader_jackson]

Back in the $1.80's with a 3.85 dividend well on the way... hopefully not long before we're back in the $1.90's (which we haven't been to since end of July last year!)

[trader_jackson]

Back into the $1.90's just over a month later... some say it might even get to $2 by weeks end.
Which weeks end, I am less sure about

A finish at $1.92 (where it is trading right now) would make it the highest point since 1st August 2017 - that's nearly 9 months ago - and we've had 7.7c in dividends paid since then.
Hard to believe not even 6 months ago you could have picked up shares at less than $1.50 - it seems Mr Market agreed that it really couldn't get much cheaper than a 6 or low 7 PE.

I look forward to seeing a presentation by Flexigroup sometime in the next week.

[winner69]

Back into the $1.90's just over a month later... some say it might even get to $2 by weeks end.
Which weeks end, I am less sure about

A finish at $1.92 (where it is trading right now) would make it the highest point since 1st August 2017 - that's nearly 9 months ago - and we've had 7.7c in dividends paid since then.
Hard to believe not even 6 months ago you could have picked up shares at less than $1.50 - it seems Mr Market agreed that it really couldn't get much cheaper than a 6 or low 7 PE.

I look forward to seeing a presentation by Flexigroup sometime in the next week.

Next week for 2 bucks will be fine

Not going too bad for an overvalued dog is it ..wonder how bad debts and the securitisation program are going

[trader_jackson]

Next week for 2 bucks will be fine

Not going too bad for an overvalued dog is it ..wonder how bad debts and the securitisation program are going

Overvalued dog? You must have the wrong thread.. it is quite the opposite!
Something good must be leaking: very large rise on pretty heavy volume

[percy]

Overvalued dog? You must have the wrong thread.. it is quite the opposite!
Something good must be leaking: very large rise on pretty heavy volume

I am pleased for you.I noted the share price looking very strong in a jittery market today.

[trader_jackson]

Well we did get to $2 by weeks end - except it was only briefly hit. That $2 mark some shares exchanged at today is the highest FXL has traded at in about a year.

After yesterdays very strong rise, I had expected a bit of a pull back - but no, the share price eked out another gain.

In just 5 days, the share price has gone from $1.70 to just under $2.

Then again we all knew it was hard to get much cheaper than a 6 or so PE in those dark days barely 6 months ago when the share price was in the $1.40's
Let's hope the presentation next week doesn't come along and ruin the party like it did last year

[trader_jackson]

A strong start, both volume wise and price wise to the week.
Great to see the market starting to value flexi a bit more "fairly"
Then again, we all knew it was hard to get much cheaper... everybody had plenty of time to hop on board the turnaround, too much time even.

[winner69]

t_j ... suppose this is good

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/fxl.asx-2A1079956/

[trader_jackson]

t_j ... suppose this is good

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/fxl.asx-2A1079956/

Not the announcement was expecting (I was hoping they were presenting at macquarie conference like they have done previous years, but anyhow sounds not bad to me.
And not bad news for flexi is good news with the way the share price is priced
Maybe if it was back in the $4 then you'd need good news to be good news

[trader_jackson]

Into the $2.10's now... Great stuff.
Just need an ok announcement to keep the party going.

[winner69]

Into the $2.10's now... Great stuff.
Just need an ok announcement to keep the party going.

Be $2.50 before we know it ...certain as ....hope so

[trader_jackson]

Be $2.50 before we know it ...certain as ....hope so

Basically at $2.20 today, this time last month we weren't even at $1.70... a 50c rise in 1 month... so yea will probably be $2.50 by June.
Some say $3 is certain as

[trader_jackson]

Basically at $2.20 today, this time last month we weren't even at $1.70... a 50c rise in 1 month... so yea will probably be $2.50 by June.
Some say $3 is certain as

$2.25 at this moment, its no "$2.50 by June", but maybe by end of June.
$3 still certain as

[Joshuatree]

Im not saying anything bout the s/p, havnt you guys learned not to hex the s/p by talking about it.DOH!:confused::scared::sleep:;)

[Joshuatree]

Just as FlexiGroup shares recover, rumours of delisting surface
SCOTT MURDOCH JUNE 07, 2018It has been some time since listed lender FlexiGroup has made headlines, but while the group’s board is lying low, some wonder whether another privatisation attempt is back on.

Rumours have surfaced in the past fortnight that the consumer and commercial lender may be heading for a delisting in a move that would no doubt be prompted by its founding chairman Andrew Abercrombie, who controls just over 24 per cent of the stock.

[trader_jackson]

...
The timing may seem odd, given shares in FlexiGroup have just started to rally after a boardroom bust-up about two years ago.

But Abercrombie has been rumoured before to have considered such a move and market analysts and shareholders say it would come as no surprise if he was working something up behind the scenes with a private equity firm.

In 2015, TPG Capital, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and investment bank Macquarie were all said to have approached the company.

KKR considered a deal where it would buy not only FlexiGroup but the General Electric Consumer Finance operation which was sold around the time to KKR, Varde Partners and Deutsche Bank for $8.3 billion. KKR progressed on the plan but it is understood it was unhappy about paying 16 times FlexiGroup’s earnings for the business (the ratio it was trading at then) when it was buying the GE business at about 12 times earnings.

Another off-putting factor for the private equity group was that Abercrombie was understood to have been keen to be a shareholder of the new GE and FlexiGroup entity.

While there were rumours at the time about private equity circling Flexi, National Australia Bank also had sounded out an acquisition of the company, about four years ago.

The bank is understood to have become nervous about one of Flexi’s products, where money continued to be debited from a customer’s account even after the loan was paid down and it was a situation where it was up to the customer, not the lender, to discontinue the direct debit payment.

The bank feared it might have been liable for large customer repayments.

Quite the revelation! Share price action over the coming days, as well as any comment by Flexi directly, could be interesting.

[trader_jackson]

I can't remember if I mentioned it on here or not, but I remember when I saw an article a few months back that the Lattitude Financial IPO will be delayed due to "something big" they were working on, I thought it could be related to them possibly taking over/merging with Flexi in some way, shape or form - it seems this has been previous considered a few years back, which is also not that surprising to hear given both are very material players in the unsecured financing (namely credit card) markets.


Abercrombie is a smart guy - and if he can't have a piece of the action, he'll be wanting an even higher price to help compensate, but I would think no less than the mid $3 for a takeover offer (either to take private or by Latitude Financial), and really $4+ would be 'more convincing' in my view.


While this is all very hypothetical and far from a done deal, it certainly makes things more interesting!


Hard to believe that FXL are actually still trading at under 10 price to cash NPAT earnings (if they hit the midpoint of their $85-90m guidance and assuming no upgrades)... One thing is clear from all this stuff: they really were 'stupidly' cheap around the mid $1's not even a year ago.

[winner69]

Could be our get out of jail card eh tj

Sorry mate, couldn't resist that

[trader_jackson]

Could be our get out of jail card eh tj

Sorry mate, couldn't resist that

Must have a few of those cards in my back pocket now ae... eg OCA - I broke the news first that they were to list at 79c, and was one of the first, if not the first, to exclaim how cheap this was while many others 'refused to believe' such things.
And we won't talk about that dog ARV

[Joshuatree]

You in the red w69? Im re 40% up and sure TJ will be too, thanks again TJ:t_up:

[winner69]

You in the red w69? Im re 40% up and sure TJ will be too, thanks again TJ:t_up:

Thanks to you mate I got a few around 170 odd so not as good as you ..but sold some on way up so doing it the percy way I’m about 89% up on the ones left

Get out jail card is tj’s way of being nice to Trilogy/Tegel punters if you get the gist

[Joshuatree]

LOL , gotcha , great strategy averaging down cost wise.Yes im a Chicken holder still, sold some way back but still have a drumstick and wishbone.:sleep:

[trader_jackson]

Thanks to you mate I got a few around 170 odd so not as good as you ..but sold some on way up so doing it the percy way I’m about 89% up on the ones left

Get out jail card is tj’s way of being nice to Trilogy/Tegel punters if you get the gist

AH I see now... well we haven't got the get out of jail card just yet... but could be... expect this time the get out of jail card may be at a much higher rater than the former 2 (as a percentage of their highest ever share price)... so get out of jail or sound financial performance? well over the coming months we'll see either way

[winner69]

Hey tj what’s up — share price back under 2 bucks

[trader_jackson]

Hey tj what’s up — share price back under 2 bucks

Just like that ae. Although not quite a drop into the $1.50's (like in early Feb... yet anyway)

I blame the guys at macquarie... should never have upgraded their recommendation from neutral to outperform and say they think that flexi will 'meet' its guidance (ie very bottom of the bottom end of guidance). Should have just kept quiet. Hopefully a broker downgrades them and maybe (like what happened after the upgrade) the share price will have an inverse reaction.
Mr Market is hard to understand sometimes

[trader_jackson]

Just like that ae. Although not quite a drop into the $1.50's (like in early Feb... yet anyway)

I blame the guys at macquarie... should never have upgraded their recommendation from neutral to outperform and say they think that flexi will 'meet' its guidance (ie very bottom of the bottom end of guidance). Should have just kept quiet. Hopefully a broker downgrades them and maybe (like what happened after the upgrade) the share price will have an inverse reaction.

Mr Market is hard to understand sometimes


No worries - everyone buying up da cheap FXL shares today, and $2 mark looking rock solid... probably going to see the most shares traded in 6 months today as well, Mr Market just can't resist buying a month out from annual results.

[trader_jackson]

No worries - everyone buying up da cheap FXL shares today, and $2 mark looking rock solid... probably going to see the most shares traded in 6 months today as well, Mr Market just can't resist buying a month out from annual results.


Always too cheap under $2

[Joshuatree]

Where are you guys , i cant wait any longer. S/P dumped on volume today despite confirming earnings and Certegy back performing. CEO leaving just before results creates panic in the moshpit.
FlexiGroup Leadership Change (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/4340775/)

[trader_jackson]

Wowee... at one stage Mr Market sent this thing down into the mid $1.80's - rallied back a third of the max drop to finish a bit under $2 - what we all seem to have forgotten is Flexi was actually under $2 less than 3 weeks ago - was a bit of a non event then, and the share price rallied strongly to hit a fresh 13 ish month high promptly after.

The market tried to find a reason to sell back then - it couldn't and promptly rallied back up.
Today it had an excuse to dump - FXL could have announced a mouse farted in their aussie offices and the share price probably would have tanked.

As some other posters have pointed out, Symon's tenure doesn't seem to be that unusual from recent times - but yes, in some ways these reasonably short tenure's are unfortunate and hopefully this stops now. I recall the share price decreased quite a bit when Robbiati announced his resignation, although it wasn't as much as today as FXL was already 'on the way down' at that time.

FXL - the come back kid that just three quarters ago was struggling to stay above the $1.50 mark "just had to go down". The irony this time is that they have confirmed meeting guidance (a first in a years actually!), and even mentioned earnings growing in the coming years! The bigly ironic part being that some broker recently upgraded his view (and price to $2.40) on FXL based on if it hit the bottom of guidance (which they have confirmed today!) - Funny, as I remember when this was announced the share price also just couldn't help but go down either.

And to top it off, by my calculations, investors who brought around the $1.90's today will be getting 2% back in less than 2 months - fully imputed.... that ain't bad!

Bring on annual results - I am a bit more relaxed now having heard there shouldn't be any bigly surprises - absolutely crazy in my view that Mr Market has done the complete opposite and panicked.

Always too cheap under $2

[percy]

You must have nerves of steel.?
I did note the new CEO's cv is impressive.
Imputated Credits.For NZders.?

[trader_jackson]

Up above $2 just like that - if you'd brought at the lowest point yesterday, you'd already be up near 10%.

Crazy how irrational the market can be.
It seems I didn't have the powder ready in time to take advantage.

[trader_jackson]

Well it ain't above $2 (although dam close), and it looks like the smart money is taking advantage before the big day (Tuesday 21st - annual results announcement)
Probably won't be under $2 for much longer

[trader_jackson]

I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times... "under $2 was always to cheap"

[Joshuatree]

Pretty good value @ current price re $2.20(up 40c today) too. Hope the chart is a steady uphill trail from now on , its been a rollercoaster ride...
FY18 Results Presentation (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/4371734/)

[winner69]

j_t ....you always said the full year was going to be a BOOMER and you were right

It’s all upward from here eh

[Joshuatree]

Dyslexic mischief ehh:p, good on you TJ. Too many times the s/p has gone down after good announcements. im holding my breath and my inner sanctum self is quietly in a sassy bassy way advising me to sell. Always the hardest part ,the shelling.

[trader_jackson]

While the Australian sharemarket recorded its worst session in five months with index heavyweights across the board closing the day lower, FXL finished up nearly 27%, closing off the day at $2.30, and actually smashed out a new 52 week high of $2.34 (actually this is the highest FXL has been in 16 months - wow!)

Prior to market open, and shortly after results were announced, I asked on another form "why did the share price go down 50 cents again?" or words to that effect - the market gave me a pretty resounding answer and proved that such a move down was nothing more than emotional irrational panic.

Fundamentally, and technically, FXL is looking very strong... next few days will be interesting to see what the brokers say and how the wider market reacts as the results are digested... But I suppose, at the end of the day, "under $2 [really] was always to cheap"

[percy]

TJ.Well done for keeping the faith.

[trader_jackson]

Morningstar has upgraded FXL 12 month price target a whopping near 40% to$2.65

Under $2 was dam cheap

[Joshuatree]

Beaut,its been a great week, some excellent results coming out from Aus. Bull mkt continues.

[crabs]

well done TJ........I congratulate you on your conviction to this company.
Still a longs ways back to your original purchase price way back in 2014 @ $3 plus.
Jeez the market can be a mean beast....

[winner69]

Time for another 10% plus ‘divie’ as share price sinks below 2 bucks again

[Elles]

Time for another 10% plus ‘divie’ as share price sinks below 2 bucks again
How did you get to a 10% dividend? I thought dividend for the year was 7.7 cent so 3.4%?

[winner69]

How did you get to a 10% dividend? I thought dividend for the year was 7.7 cent so 3.4%?

I did say ‘divie’

The ongoing regular cycling of the shareprice between $2.00 odd and $2.20/$2.30

Trading in other words .....like the dividend when you punt at the TAB ......as ‘investing’ on the shraremarket is just punting eh

[Elles]

Ah, thanks for clarifying that. Yes nice idea if you can get the timing right.

[winner69]

Ah, thanks for clarifying that. Yes nice idea if you can get the timing right.

Not working out this time around .....yet

Maybe it’s headed back to the 170/180s

[trader_jackson]

Back under $2 again... back to being cheapo again.

Probably go to $2.30, go to $1.70, go to $2.50, go to $1, go to $5... These days, I don't know in what order or if these prices will occur... What I think is more sure is that FY19 cash NPAT is looking likely to be a record

Reality (at $1.98) is certainly not reflecting records being broken, nor a company with double digit growth for FY19 (and an increased dividend of a similar, possibly more, percentage on the horizon)

[winner69]

Not working out this time around .....yet

Maybe it’s headed back to the 170/180s

Well thats half the last 'divie' given back ...gone

Will give it a few more days before panicing ...afterall somebody called t_j mentioned $5 yesterday

[winner69]

Getting into disaster territory eh tj

At this rate of decline it’ll beat Heartland in the race to the bottom ...or at least catch up with them

[trader_jackson]

Back under $2 again... back to being cheapo again.

Probably go to $2.30, go to $1.70, go to $2.50, go to $1, go to $5... These days, I don't know in what order or if these prices will occur... What I think is more sure is that FY19 cash NPAT is looking likely to be a record

Reality (at $1.98) is certainly not reflecting records being broken, nor a company with double digit growth for FY19 (and an increased dividend of a similar, possibly more, percentage on the horizon)

Underlined bit in the quote above nearly completed, hopefully this keeps "going to plan".

Pretty rough come back track that is for sure.

But far from the disaster territory that is sub $1.50

[winner69]

Hey tj ......almost same price as Heartland (I know different currencies)

Some feat eh

For both F19 will see record profits, double digit growth, increased divie on the horizon and both great companies.

Just highlights when over $2 both were outrageously overvalued and sensibility has prevailed and both about where they should be. Not too much difference in their price book ratios now.

[trader_jackson]

Heartland probably very lucky to get near double digit growth while flexi almost certain (so the mid point between 8% and 13% would indicate)
... and we won't go into EPS growth for heartland vs FXL... FXL going to look like a superstar there
some say HBL EPS growth for FY19 not even going to be 2%

Record profits for both at least...

Price to book you say? Interesting as FXL has usually traded at a much more bigly price to book ratio than HBL historically...

One thing is for sure, one of them was certainly overvalued at $2+, but that same one had the nice warm and fuzzy story to suit (at the time)
It certainly wasn't the come-back-kid FXL

How contrasting the Year to date charts are... one is flat, the other down a quarter... will be interesting to see where each end up come years end

[t.rexjr]

Hey tj ......almost same price as Heartland (I know different currencies)

Some feat eh

For both F19 will see record profits, double digit growth, increased divie on the horizon and both great companies.

Just highlights when over $2 both were outrageously overvalued and sensibility has prevailed and both about where they should be. Not too much difference in their price book ratios now.

It's a pretty horrible looking 5 year chart on this one. I'm not so sure it deserves to be at current levels but clearly the market knows more than I. Long term holding on the ASX seems to be a rollercoaster of emotions with much head scratching. When mid/short term trading, at least I welcome any volitility...

[winner69]

Heartland probably very lucky to get near double digit growth while flexi almost certain (so the mid point between 8% and 13% would indicate)
... and we won't go into EPS growth for heartland vs FXL... FXL going to look like a superstar there
some say HBL EPS growth for FY19 not even going to be 2%

Record profits for both at least...

Price to book you say? Interesting as FXL has usually traded at a much more bigly price to book ratio than HBL historically...

One thing is for sure, one of them was certainly overvalued at $2+, but that same one had the nice warm and fuzzy story to suit (at the time)
It certainly wasn't the come-back-kid FXL

How contrasting the Year to date charts are... one is flat, the other down a quarter... will be interesting to see where each end up come years end

FXL maybe sinking with the banks and those other dodgy lenders ...Aussies don't like these sort of finance companies at the moment ....rogues and vagabonds all of them

[winner69]

ANZ dont do YTD charts but 1 year charts look pretty ugly

All the unfounded irrational exuberance for FXL - it was good as got a few good divies ...but had to give one back - as Mr P often said the market giveth but the market also taketh away

[trader_jackson]

ANZ dont do YTD charts but 1 year charts look pretty ugly

All the unfounded irrational exuberance for FXL - it was good as got a few good divies ...but had to give one back - as Mr P often said the market giveth but the market also taketh away

the 'gap' is quite something that is for sure... you're right about the aussies not being happy with the lot of them... that completely unregulated company a few times bigger than fxl that only listed a few years back (the same one that gave hundreds of dollars to under-aged, unverified, unemployed kids to buy alcohol online) has nearly halved in price in the past 2 months... but story is too strong for it to go down to any remotely reasonable valuation
Flexi now have a good relationship with the regulators, so they say, but skeptics be skeptics

[winner69]

Getting worse by the day tj

You were joking in one of your recent posts about $1 weren’t you?

[trader_jackson]

did not think it would sit below $1.70 for long, if at all.. but wowee... $1.59 just after the open today.

Crazy that in almost exactly 2 months, the share price fell up to 70 cents (over a third), despite positive revisions by brokers (following a robust annual result and strong FY19 guidance) and a current mean estimate of $2.50 per share. Virtually no analyst 3 months ago expected flexi to be guiding for a potential $100m+ in FY19 either... yet here we are... $1.59 at one stage today and that dividend yield creeping ever higher.

But at the end of the day, once the panickers had finished panicking, FXL finished down less than some financials (eg ANZ and AMP) and around about the same as most other financials so no worries... no need to get too excited yet
except that unregulated after pay company which defied the odds to finish up bigly

AGM in a few weeks will likely confirm how cheap FXL is
Or explain why it has fallen so dramatically in barely 60 days

[trader_jackson]

Hey winner, look at that, FXL actually up today despite nearly all other financials going down and the ASX 200 itself down over 1%... I would have thought FXL was the very first to go down on a day like today (Although nearly went under the $1.60 mark again)

I suppose FXL's share price ups and downs really don't make sense... but then again we know it hasn't made sense for a good past 2 months now


Even afterpay couldn't stay in the green

[trader_jackson]

$2.30 not even 2 months ago... $1.55 at one stage today, another 10c down (which is alot but not alot for FXL) and we'll be back at 5 year lows and all of this years gains gone. What has changed in the past 2 months? (apart from issuing strong FY19 guidance)

Clearly double digit growth and record profits just ain't good enough for this market.

[winner69]

Not quite closing time but heck going down faster than Heartland

[trader_jackson]

Not quite closing time but heck going down faster than Heartland

but not quite as fast as AMP

at under $1.50, im topping up bigly...Not sure what has changed by 37% in the past 2 months.

[winner69]

but not quite as fast as AMP

at under $1.50, im topping up bigly...Not sure what has changed by 37% in the past 2 months.

.....the share price has

[winner69]

but not quite as fast as AMP

at under $1.50, im topping up bigly...Not sure what has changed by 37% in the past 2 months.

You into AMP as well?

[trader_jackson]

You into AMP as well?

FXL long term and today better returns than AMP
but no, absolutely not.
FXL much better positioned some say than AMP!

[trader_jackson]

Not quite closing time but heck going down faster than Heartland

Is FXL vs HGH (currency differences aside) the new race? Starting today (1 November)?
Basically both $1.60 right now, give or take a cent.

Some say FXL back to $2 by christmas and $2.50 by March 2019

[Joshuatree]

I like your style, deflecting an insensible paper loss to a competition based on an advancing s/p without even considering it could still go further the other way in this volatile correction.!
Im In:)


holding not folding.

[Joshuatree]

Told ya's, DOH!:eek2:

[winner69]

Told ya's, DOH!:eek2:

Amazing, truly amazing stuff :scared::eek2::):D

[Joshuatree]

Kinda mea culpa depressing.Looks like we are in the wrong sector(retail) at the wrong time, but it felt right there for a while.Sentiment the current drag? Shoulda coulda woulda taken profits.

But no downgrade and no forecast either. New broom on board, active customers over 1,000,000 for the first time, retailers up 8% to 46,000. Receivables up 10%.
New lease product LISA retiring Flexirent with lots of impairment etc.

[trader_jackson]

I don't know what to think of the AGM... it wasn't rock solid, nor was it a hopeless case... lucky the share price has already priced in a hopeless case, but will likely over-react further today. What is most annoying is how someone(s) must have found out the AGM wasn't going to be to flash as how else would the share price fall 35% in a few months... it seems transparency is starting to become a very big issue with FXL.

Truly crazy stuff.

[winner69]

I don't know what to think of the AGM... it wasn't rock solid, nor was it a hopeless case... lucky the share price has already priced in a hopeless case, but will likely over-react further today. What is most annoying is how someone(s) must have found out the AGM wasn't going to be to flash as how else would the share price fall 35% in a few months... it seems transparency is starting to become a very big issue with FXL.

Truly crazy stuff.

Your expectations are far too high tj ...will lead to further disappointment I fear

Liked the baseball cap on Slide 7 ...quite cool

And what does this mean “In line with new accounting standards, from 1 July 2018 we have increased our provision for doubtful debts as the credit provision policy moves from one based on incurred loss to one based on expected loss.”. Probably won’t put it through the P&L so will be lost in the big picture.

[winner69]

At this rate FXL = HGH on the ASX

Wow

[t.rexjr]

Dang that was a bounce. They've reconfirmed guidance and it runs form $1.34 to $1.55. Where to now...

[trader_jackson]

Up 20% in a matter of seconds... Me oh my! Like seriously, this is truly crazy!

[Joshuatree]

And then a sudden reversal atm back up to $1.605. Brokers come out with a buy?

[trader_jackson]

And then a sudden reversal atm back up to $1.605. Brokers come out with a buy?

Morningstar did... but usually when they say buy it means sell.... amazing how quick the market is to punish, and what a subsequent 100 word announcement can... so much for no news is good news... it would seems good news is ok news and no news is terrible news with FXL

[t.rexjr]

Up 20% in a matter of seconds...
Me oh my! Like seriously, this is truly crazy!

I'm seriously miffed at that timing. Was halfway through a buy order when the halt came on!

[winner69]

Amateurish company eh tj .....and you have faith in them

Might get the daytraders interested and pumped like hell on hotcopper ....2 bucks plus next week

[Joshuatree]

I hope we dont get spanked by the regulatory fellahs
RESPONSE TO ASIC REPORT ON THE BUY NOW PAY LATER SECTOR 2 pages 220.1KB (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02053832)


If you really want to do a forensic
https://download.asic.gov.au/media/4947835/rep600-published-28-11-2018.pdf

[trader_jackson]

Flexigroup have actually tried to stay ahead of the regulators and/or work with them proactively... afterpay on the other hand is nearly the opposite: I think I read somewhere that they reckon giving $500 limit to anyone and everyone after putting in just a few basic details (like registering for a gmail account) is perfectly

prudet, no credit considerations, regulations etc required... no wonder those 16 year olds could purchase alcohol online delivered direct to their doorstep so easily!


Somehow FXL's share price will be hit harder than APT's, despite of course the fact a very small portion of cash monies comes from oxipay at this moment...

[trader_jackson]

something going wrong today - FXL and APT up bigly (7%) one of the largest 1 day rises I can recall since the good old days of $2.30 (post annual results announcement)... then I realise that good day was barely 3 months ago... wow those good ol' days not so old really, how things change.

Only needs to go up another 50% and we'll be back at near fair value for this underperforming dog (until they deliver the 100m cash NPAT in 9 months time, then even mid $2's will probably look cheap)

[winner69]

Hey tj, I see HGH and FXL are the same price on the ASX

Real dog this FXL eh ....but probably about the right price on fundamentals.

I’m still watching whether it will get into another trading range so I can do another few quick trades

When you going to give up on them tj?

[trader_jackson]

Hey tj, I see HGH and FXL are the same price on the ASX

Real dog this FXL eh ....but probably about the right price on fundamentals.

I’m still watching whether it will get into another trading range so I can do another few quick trades

When you going to give up on them tj?

The market began to give up on them 5 years ago, I won't be giving up unless I see cash EPS growth (of at least 8% - better than HGH some say) missed by miles.

And today HGH should be a chunk below FXL (FXL $1.41 ASX, HGH $1.38 NZX)

[wizAlvin]

ASZ 2019 competition closing in few hours

[winner69]

Jeez ...at this rate FXL will be only a buck by the end of the month.

[trader_jackson]

Back under $2 again... back to being cheapo again.

Probably go to $2.30, go to $1.70, go to $2.50, go to $1, go to $5... These days, I don't know in what order or if these prices will occur... What I think is more sure is that FY19 cash NPAT is looking likely to be a record

Reality (at $1.98) is certainly not reflecting records being broken, nor a company with double digit growth for FY19 (and an increased dividend of a similar, possibly more, percentage on the horizon)

Doing the pattern I mentioned 4 months ago, just not in the same order.
One thing is for sure, this is crazy stuff.

[Joshuatree]

Has the bungee hit the bottom and allowed holder to grab a trout out of the deep dark green lugubrious river in a chasm, and at that latent point of about to start rising?(the trout was). The metrics here on ASB show a PE of minus 48 (insane laughter) hAHAHAHAhahahahahahhahahahahh, "we're coming to take you away haha, to the funny farm with all those people in their nice white uniforms"........

[winner69]

Has the bungee hit the bottom and allowed holder to grab a trout out of the deep dark green lugubrious river in a chasm, and at that latent point of about to start rising?(the trout was). The metrics here on ASB show a PE of minus 48 (insane laughter) hAHAHAHAhahahahahahhahahahahh, "we're coming to take you away haha, to the funny farm with all those people in their nice white uniforms"........

Did lose $10m last year ....equals negative PE

At least the bungee cord appears not to have broken....that’s good

[Joshuatree]

$12 million impairment NPAT $76-$80 mill.Looks ok to me considering where the s/p has sunk to.Mkt cap re$471 mill.

Download Document 136.97KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4g28w RD%2Fv%2FFh87FiGug%3D)

[winner69]

$12 million impairment NPAT $76-$80 mill.Looks ok to me considering where the s/p has sunk to.Mkt cap re$471 mill.

Download Document 136.97KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4g28w RD%2Fv%2FFh87FiGug%3D)

Downgrade from $95m to $100m though ...that’s 20% down from the warm fuzzies of a confirmation of the $95m to $100m just over 2 months ago

FXL becoming one of these gunna stocks.

Last year’s number was $88m ...$76m a bit lower eh.

[winner69]

Love it when companies do strategic reviews and tell us to look forward to the new group strategy.

[trader_jackson]

Downgrade from $95m to $100m though ...that’s 20% down from the warm fuzzies of a confirmation of the $95m to $100m just over 2 months ago

FXL becoming one of these gunna stocks.

Last year’s number was $88m ...$76m a bit lower eh.

This is really not a good update, but what is worse is the way they announced (when, how, and after Mr Market had clearly known for weeks, arguably months - that is what FXL is being punished for this morning). Less than 6 months ago things were all good to go and the share price was at 230% higher...The reaction this morning is very much emotional and totally overdone but borderline understandable given there seems to be far to many 'one off' impacts (which, yet again, has resulted in most of the downgrade) so understandably the market (and myself) are infuriated. A fancy preso isn't going to help much this time and I suppose we'll find out more in a few weeks.

[winner69]

Does a $12m provision impact Cash NPAT? Is it just one of the adjusting items between Statutory NPAT and this thing called Cash NPAT?

[winner69]

Bit ominious when they use words like ‘below budget expectations’ and ‘slower than forecast’

You not losing the faith are you t_j?

[trader_jackson]

Does a $12m provision impact Cash NPAT? Is it just one of the adjusting items between Statutory NPAT and this thing called Cash NPAT?

I'm not quite sure... I am thinking this 12m is part of the 20ish m downgrade, but will soon see.

Faith is dented and running very thin now, but I'm not out yet.

You buy more at 97c? you'd be up 10% already if you did
A friend of mine left for lunch and missed out on making a quick doubt digit return, but hey, maybe in the longer/bigger picture it was good he left for lunch... time will tell
Maybe I should have left for lunch at 11:30am and not come back to the office

[winner69]

I'm not quite sure... I am thinking this 12m is part of the 20ish m downgrade, but will soon see.

Faith is dented and running very thin now, but I'm not out yet.

You buy more at 97c? you'd be up 10% already if you did
A friend of mine left for lunch and missed out on making a quick doubt digit return, but hey, maybe in the longer/bigger picture it was good he left for lunch... time will tell
Maybe I should have left for lunch at 11:30am and not come back to the office

All a bit vague, especially the use of underlying Cash NPAT .....need to get into the normalising game when things not good eh.

[winner69]

Not that much damage to the share price today .....probably close not much differentl from yesterday’s close

But some made big bucks today ...and some no doubt crystallised big losses.

[trader_jackson]

Not that much damage to the share price today .....probably close not much differentl from yesterday’s close

But some made big bucks today ...and some no doubt crystallised big losses.

Certainly is shaping up to be a game of two halves... although I was in neither half.

I thought anything above $1.10 would be good... it is worth far in excess of $1.10 even after todays regrettable announcement, but I can understand the fury and swiftly negative reaction against FXL in the way and nature it was announced.

One thing is for sure, Private Equity will be swirling more than ever before around this former market darling at a 6 month forward PE of less than 6.