Feltex (FTX) - All over for shareholders

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by lambton

[quote]Originally posted by Lawso

Forsyth Barr put out a positive report on FTX last week. Summarised as follows: "We consider FTX has a number of attractive investment fundamentals including strong brands and an attractive FY05 yield of 10.3%. FTX is trading at a 25.0% discount to our $2.10 valuation and we reiterate our BUY recommendation."

And eight months on, single digit approaching. Forbars must now be wondering if a class action is in the wind.

While I like your sentiment L, I don't believe that our law system entertains "class action"

[Unicorn]

Originally posted by belgarion

"materially below that at which the shares last traded"

Its been some time since I've seen such a worthless bit of guidance.
This is great guidance, compared to "everything is sweet so we have turned down 60 cents".
Exactly what does this mean?
It means that the best deal that is likely to happen will involve the issue of new shares at a price well below 20c.
Further - what's happened in the last few months, THAT HAS NOT BEEN DISCLOSED TO THE MARKET, that is different to 6 months ago or the last earning guidance? The Board and Senior Officiers are supposed to be forward looking ... why wasn't this sort of guidance given 6 months or 12 months ago?
The bank has now stepped in and not given them the opportunity to trade their way out in their own time. Prior to that the management appear to have hoped to trade their way out without anyone noticing.

Further, what are the potential investors seeing that hasn't been disclosed to the market? What issues are preventing potential investors coming into FTX? Why isn't this information being shared with shareholders and why are we, supposedly the owners, not given the opportunity to vote on any restructuring proposal?
Effectively the bank (ANZ) owns Feltex - shareholders have not been the real owners since ANZ was able to appoint a Receiver.

Exactly whose interests are the Board and the Senior Officiers serving?
The ANZ - it effectively owns the company.
The complete absence of discloser over the last 6 months suggests an EGM should be held and a vote of confidence held. Symbolic perhaps, but fun anyway ... I'd rather have the Bank in control
Be happy, they are now.
than people who say 'they are acting in the best interests of shareholders' when we, the holders, patently have NO information to suggest that this is the case ... More hot air that reeks of either skuldugery or outright incompetence!

The new owners might be quite happy with a 1:1 at 25 cents
Everyone, everywhere would be happy to raise capital at a premium - never happens in the real world though.
... so long as the Board and Senior Officiers come clean ... and come clean quickly ... What is really going on? In event event they will be looking for new jobs soon anyway !!!!!

[warthog]

Again, for those who weren't listening: all banks seek to minimise pain endured.

warthog said on the 16th of July

quote:Good on you Seagull - nice to see somebody walking their talk.

What with a new approach to retailing in Australia I hope that something positive happens for you.

The warthog still wouldn't touch it with a bargepole though.

Sorry Seagull - hope you bailed out in the interim.

Also, check out Basetrader's post of 25 July 2006:


quote:As I have had a wee bit of experience in wording these fun facility documents I believe that the document will have a number of means to capture default/material adverse change - and not just a 20th of month review. The ANZ could have not had all info by 20th and reserved its righte etc.
But it is all speculation anyway. Either there is an investor or the company is for formal restructure. Both will be shareholder negative as any new investor would require significant dilution as they are in an extremely strong bargaining position and receivership would likely see the last of the equity swallowed up in accountants and lawyer fees.

And Belg - the company will have enterprise value - just not for the current shareholder base or at the current debt levels. Shareholders lose all and some debt is forgone and we have a viable entity (atleast for a while anyway).


The warthog suspects that either FTX will be sold as a basket-case for somebody to pick over - the last paragraph of BT's post describes the situation - or it will sink beneath the waves and the ANZ will scramble to get out faster than you can say Jack Robinson.

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by D_Pick

Not a good trading halt or announcement [V]

Again the market is left to speculate

What does "materially below" indicate in this circumstance 25, 50, 75 or 90% lower than the previous 20 cent closing price. On the otherhand I guess the board doesn't want to announce the price in case they can find another investor at a higher valuation.....



Nothing to speculate actually. Feltex's PR-speak is now so transaparent that 'materially below' means a 'fraction of'. So call it 5 cents as a concession price as valuation for Feltex in determining the placement and rights issue price.

"No certainty that a deal will be concluded nor of the terms on which any such deal would be struck" means that "the Board is still living in cloud-cuckooland and blissfully unaware that ANZ is ready to pull the plug and send in the receivers."

Remember - this is a Board which told the market that they were "working closely with ANZ and exploring equity raising options". We now know that it actually meant "ANZ has given us a month to find new equity or they pull the plug."

Get a good lawyer to bring a class action against these clowns. That's the only way to get your money back.

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

True Sniper me ol' mate ...

Although Im sitting waiting for sub 20c or the rights issue now ... 4.95% here we come

discl: belgie breaks even at 25.5 cents :)


Probably best investment you ever made if you take a class action against the directors and PR firm for misleading and actionable half-truths which prompted you to throw caution to the wind and buy, buy, buy. I am sure the judge will be very sympathetic and award you big time for hurt feelings as well. ;)

[lanenz]

and humilation.. at least thats i bargained for on behalf of others

[winner69]

Sniper .... those Consultus guys must have expected a lot of calls today .... they added Michael to the list of people to ring

As the press releases are getting shorter maybe these guys are on per word rate and don't won't to charge too much in cae they don't get paid

[Base Trader]

There will be a lot of recriminations and many would point the bone at the ANZ, however, in my experience any Bank will not pull the rug unless they have lost confidence that FTX can manage its position effectively or the company is beyond saving. There are considerable costs to liquidation so this is really the last resort.

Clearly, FTX management has been firing blanks and I do not believe many have faith in them.

However, the FTX Float and subsequent demise is a failure of the booming NZ investment economy at the time. Corporate Finance/Broker floated the issue and prepared reports doing what they are required but not necessarily actually completing effective due diligence ("DD") and reserach. The speed of the decline showed that the Brokers had little fundamental understanding of Feltex's market position, the threat from competition, selling power and market sentiment to carpets as a product and took much of the information on face value.

I have not followed FTX closely, except the normal newpaper articles but I strongly suggest the DD was weak. Did they track and build models on the supply chain - costing in commodity price movements, wage pressures, freight costs in a multi-variate model (not just up and down 5% style of analysis)? Did they talk to the 5 largest clients in person to understand their purchasing decisions/matrix and price possible changes in volumes and prices. Then model these changes back into tyhe working capital position and this into the debt? Did they complete an adequate Threat analysis - not least that their competitors may take advantage of a tight market and FTX higher debt burden (cost structure) to get this exact result? Did they model out the break even point and test this with various assumptions based upon historic data (that is historic data from 1998 - when we saw the last housing slowdown). Did they model these in relation to covenant compliance with relevant cure periods? The list goes on - but just by the fact that this deal was not broked by the normal Corp Finance suspects I believe that the DD was nopt as robust.

They most likely completed some flashy spreadsheet based largely on management information (and historic audited results) and became managements best friends to get the business. A nice little bit of group think.

[lanenz]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Does anyone recommend these as a buy?

I need to halt my losing streak and think this may be my saviour share.
zzzzzzzzz....give yourself another uppercut

[Toddy]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Does anyone recommend these as a buy?

I need to halt my losing streak and think this may be my saviour share.


I think that ForBar may still have them as a buy.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Does anyone recommend these as a buy?

I need to halt my losing streak and think this may be my saviour share.


Go for it cujo .... ;)

[bushbasher]

quote:Get a good lawyer to bring a class action against these clowns. That's the only way to get your money back.

This is really only a viable option if it can be proven that securities law has been broken. This would consist probably of showing that either the original float promoters or management issued deliberately misleading or erroneous information to the market, on which investors based their decision-making to buy. Sheer incompetence will usually not suffice for a successful prosecution.

I think the best bet for a valid case would be for those who bought in the initial offering at $1.70 if it is found that the promoters and/or management knew that the prospectus earnings projections were over-optimistic. However, all prospectus' by their nature are couched in buyer beware language. I reckon anybody who has bought in in the last 6 months should have seen the writing on the wall and has less likelihood of making a successful claim.

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

BT concur with your view about ANZ calling in the recievers only as a last resort. (Aggressive banks struggle to get big customers)

discl: bought more yesterday and probably will again today ... (Hey it's only money [xx(])


Shorted some yesterday so good on you as sellers need buyers ...

GH walked away after due diligence and discussions but punters continued to believe Tim Saunders and his clowns. Cheapest $2m hit that GH took bailing out of FTX ....

Feltex shares plunge on shock confession
27 July 2006
By DAVID HARGREAVES

Feltex directors have conceded that investors will be left holding stock worth very little even if there is agreement on a deal to restructure the cash-strapped carpetmaker.


The announcement prompted shares in Feltex to slump 37 per cent to 13.3 cents yesterday after a two-day halt in trading was ended.

The mostly "mum and dad" investors who paid $1.70 a share in the company's $254 million float just over two years ago have now seen more than 90 per cent of their money disappear. The company was worth less than $20 million at yesterday's prices.

Two parties, one believed to be Melbourne-based carpetmaker Godfrey Hirst, are in negotiations over a restructuring deal for Feltex. The company owes $129 million to ANZ and is in breach of some of its banking terms.

A statement from Feltex directors made just before the share trading halt was lifted said there was no certainty a deal would be struck.

"However, if an agreement was concluded, the value to shareholders arising from that restructuring would be materially below that at which the shares last traded," they said.

Before the trading halt, Feltex stock was at 21c.

AdvertisementAdvertisementIt is understood the restructuring talks may be resolved as early as today – but equally they could drag on into next week.

Feltex, which has its head office in Melbourne, has about 890 New Zealand staff with factories in Christchurch, Lower Hutt, Dannevirke, Feilding, Foxton and Kakariki, near Marton. In February it posted an $11.8 million interim loss.

The managing director of brokers ASB Securities, Tim Preston, said he had been perplexed as to why Feltex shares had been trading above 20c till yesterday.

"For anybody who has been watching this unfold, it has become increasingly obvious that any rescue package would involve quite a dilution of capital for existing shareholders."

The share trading halt was called by the company on Monday morning "pending resolution of negotiations for a restructuring of the company".

It appears that Godfrey Hirst was not involved in the discussions at that stage. When its finance director, Jim Walsh, was rung in Melbourne by BusinessDay on Monday he said he was unaware of the trading halt. He could not be contacted yesterday.

Last year, Godfrey Hirst contemplated taking control of Feltex – at what would appear to have been much higher prices than would now be on the table.

It bought 5.8 per cent of Feltex at 58 cents a share in June 2005 after Feltex had issued two profit warnings within three months. But the Feltex board rejected a reverse takeover proposal in October. Then in February rationalisation discussions between the two companies were terminated, with Feltex directors believing that "ending these discussions is in the best interests of the company and its shareholders".

In March, Godfrey Hirst sold what was by that stage an 8.7 per cent stake for a loss of about $2 million.

[winner69]

Be interesting to see what happens today

Mums and Dads hear about it TV last night .... man on ZB radio this morning paints a bleak picture .... and even Tim Preston jumps on the band wagon and says he has been surprised how it stayed up above 20 cents over the last few weeks (he is an enlightened man isn't he)

Wonder how much something worthless is worth today .... probably go up to about 15 cents if the likes of trackers, cujopup and belg are fighting for whats on sale

[Gryffyn]

100% of nothing will still be nothing. Too many people hoping for a Toll but it's them that's paying now.

[moimoi]

can't say i've seen or heard tim preston advising his client base to avoid FTX shares recently.??

Would be pretty easy to slip that into one of his nightly 3 news snippets don't ya think.

If he's surprised...what does that make the rest of us.

Maybe the quote has been taken out of context ;) LOL.

(a client base...primarily made up of small mum and dad investors as evidenced by the statement within their recent "brokerage rate streamlining" advice that stated that the majority of their clients would only face a 50 cent increase in their brokerage fee's...which is probably what it is if your buying $2k worth of shares)

[bushbasher]

Like buying a million FTX shares over the next few days...

[Snow Leopard]

Casual conversation with a client in the banking space this morning over coffee: Talking to someone in the queue for the next available teller whilst sipping a takeaway Starbucks?

So yesterday you are throwing good money after bad and today you suggest we keep our old 5c coins to buy burnt carpet?
I am confused by the message you are trying to get across here.

[trackers]

Well its not all bad - Maybe some cheap carpet for my house coming up?? :)

[clearasmud]

If you lose money on a stock it is wise to realise that the lesson learn't is worth the loss,is the price of the loss.And the lesson will be learn't after a lengthy postmortem.

Averaging down is folly unless you have a conviction based on sound reasoning.Don't rely on hope only.

[Snow Leopard]

Things don't get much worse than this:

quote:Greens urge new investors to save Feltex (http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3745771a13,00.html)

Green MP Sue Bradford is urging potential investors to get behind troubled local carpet maker Feltex.


Trading in Feltex shares was suspended on Monday, pending the outcome of restructuring talks.

When trading resumed yesterday shares plunged 37 per cent to 13.3 cents. Feltex is seeking a new cornerstone investor.

Ms Bradford today urged potential investors to get on board to save the company.

"Feltex is too big a Kiwi institution to be allowed to collapse. It employs more than 700 workers and is a large earner of overseas funds based on the value added manufacture of New Zealand wool.

"It is exactly the type of company that New Zealand needs now and in the future."

[Gryffyn]

hemp carpets?

[lanenz]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

hemp carpets?
:D

[Krustytheclown]

Hellen has a natural affinity for Carpet ;).....perhaps her Camp[:0] in Govt' could bank roll FTX out of this Poop [B)]its mired in??
Looks like the nutty Greens would support a bail out.

TAXpayers are not!

G.

[Snow Leopard]

very funny belge, very funny.

Meanwhile back in the real world we still do not know whether anybody is willing to buy a chunk of new equity in this company, to be given to the ANZ, or whether the rug will be pulled from beneath Feltex leaving the receivers as the only winners.
This currently must be the most speculative share on the NZX.

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

No message really PT ... just relaying a conversion that was so full of banker/broker speak ... i.e. much of what the banker said could be interpreted two ways. He was giving nothing away except to say that FTX must get a deal together quick or perish ... and that if FTX perished, the banker responsible for FTX would probably get a grilling from his boss

... with regards throwing 'good money after bad' ... we'll have to see.


How insightful from the banker. He must have woken up real early this morning, read the comments on Feltex in the newspaper and on the radio - and pass it on.

What a banker!

No wonder Feltex was able to borrow another $50m from ANZ in the last 18 months even as the company went from one disaster to another.

Tim Saunders and his clowns need to be brought to account. A receivership would probably suit them just fine as all the unsavory details of the disastrous state Feltex is in and how it got into that state then do not have to come out.

So my guess is that Feltex goes to receivership. Everyday that slips by is another day closer to receivership.

[shasta]

The Govt bailed out Air NZ, why not FTX?

Greg may be onto something here!

Small towns like Dannevirke & the like would suffer if/when there factories are closed?

If this former "Icon" company goes under i hope the NZX gets alot close scrutiny too, after the Access Brokerage debacle, it seems the continuous disclosure rule & the policing of it is a joke.

I wonder how much of FTX's operating costs are tied up in its incompetent management?

[Krustytheclown]

Another Post Mortem on TV news......and the FTX shares are trading at 6.5% of the IPO price......BIG OUCH for the Elderly Mumsy and Dadsy out there - Oh, and BIG OUCH for the Lead FTX Ramper and now BIGtime Carpet Merchant- Belgs......are you at 5% yet?

Glad I only took a quick bite and then sold in a couple of days a few months ago.
I would'nt touch it with someone else's - right now.

This is a tree legged, blind, Deaf Mutt......-Or that fits Managements profile anyway

G.

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

DCski13 ... I'd hang on if I were you ... As sanity starts to prevail I expect the price to move a bit higher leading up to the rights issues. Thems buying at and below 20c will be smiling shortly ...

Aiming for 4.95% :)



Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm ..... receivership time, boys. No rights issue then.

[Base Trader]

Jolly - FTX for the current shareholders is dead. The debt burden is too high at this point in time - regardless of some intuitive export - import argument.

Sure the Feltex capets factory will continue to run and carpets will be exported and sold - but the current shareholders will not participate. They will lose their value as the shares become (nearly) worthless. New owners or a receiver will run the company for the benefit of the creditors or new shareholders.

[hesiod]

Be interesting to see who's joining the register.

[DCski13]

BUGGER! But on the other hand, I feel like a 10 year old girl digging through a hugh pile of horse **** looking for the long lost pony.... "with so much crap around there must be a pony in here somewhere". .. ok .. so lets move on. What is FTX going to morph into ... and who's the horse and where will the recovery start... does the world need a revamped carpet manufacturer etc. etc

[DCski13]

I'm good at questioning and that's about it. My research is poor ... so where do we go from here CAV, HBY, FBU, that Aussie coy, fund management buy out of divisions. Ya need a distribution chain, well run manufacturing and fashion smarts and marketing polish.

Something tells me (common sence - hehe), ANZ will back the new jockey to recover it's position. I mean, why lose $50-6Om in a day when you can pull it out a few years later and get interest on ya money at some point unbeknown to you and I (that's enough from me ... what did I say about pony droppings!)

[Toddy]

DCski13

You can bet your bottom dollar that if ANZ pull the plug on FTX they will not be fronting a $60m loss. They would have packaged up the loan and off loaded the risk to some other mug in the market. Probably the exact same mum and dads that hold the FTX shares directly.

[Jim]

This just S...T I think just let FTX rest in peace and take the incompetence Tim Saunder and his bunch of Rsole with it. It just made me so sick sick sick[xx(][xx(][}:)]

[DCski13]

Yep! I understand. If you can't make good money in the short run, don't take a loss. Make it in the long run.

NEXT - anyone interested in commiserating their losses at McGrath's 149 Willis St Friday Sept 29th. HEY, isn't it a bit too soon to be annoucning doom and gloom. FTX had 3 months to get a deal sorted out. That's end September?

[DCski13]

Hm, appoint a receiver. Take FTX off the Board. Clean it up - new broom and all that then do another IPO a few years later when the noise has died down (a bit like Provincial et al - reposs a car, clean it up, extract max. from the borrower and sell it again. Do that 4 times in the year, and with the same car too, then you're making money).

[Pennywise]

Time for the rumour mill...

Time for GPG to step in, ripe for underwriting a rights issue.

Synergies with Coates?

Where is GPG?

Poor Belg

100%ers are SO EASY to find on the NZX;)

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

One notes GF stand in the market was at 58 cents while FTX looked a god awful mess ...

One also notes a backdoor takeover by GF would result in dramatic cost savings for the FTX part of the business and very significant improvements to GFs bottom line ...

Todays action should be interesting ... I'd guess we'll finish in excess of 58 cents and quite likely 60 cents.

This story has just resumed ... those looking two years out (me!) can see a formal T.O. coming and probably between 75 to 90 cents if it comes 2006 and more than $1.00 if GF delays too long. GFs big problem will be flushing out the mums and dads ... and just possibly fighting off a rival ;)

Those looking for a quick buck will be out in the next few weeks ... Belgie will continue to accumulate on weakness and await the inevitable ...

Regards ;)



Great reading pages 20-23 again

oh joy

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by Halebop


quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Not always. Frequently, the deal is struckered to ensure suffering shareholders get a capital gain from it.

Eh? Loss making company with a heavy debt load? Any rights issue will be structured to get cash fast from a dwindling pool of willing investors in a jaundiced market. That isn't an obvious recipe for capital gain. Its a good lead indicator for rights issue discount though.

But c'mon guys, there are many companies without the same finite and binary risk characteristics. Wait for a rights issue and see what happens. Exposure now is not a good risk / reward trade. It's simply a gamble. If you want to take a straight out gamble why not a penny dreadful uranium share? Much more upside for your risk of catastrophic loss.



Halebop must be acknowledged again as genius...
Less than 6 months ago that post.

[Base Trader]

If I was GPG I would buy out of Administration - just assumed debt of NZD120MM. If they are happy with the cyclcility of carpets - then why not. In all it would only cost NZD60MM in cash to reduce the debt burden.

However, my guess is that their cash is destined elsewhere.

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by Pennywise

Halebop must be acknowledged again as genius...
Less than 6 months ago that post.

[:I]

If Halebop was really a genius he'd be making much more money right now than 5 or 6%. But I'll accept any compliments irrespective the merit! :D

If we define genius as "common sense" there are more than a few mensa candidates around Sharetrader ...and dare I suggest more than a few [insert opposite to Mensa candidate here]?

[Snow Leopard]

The opposite of Mensa is Densa?

[sniper]

NBR this morning - liquidation on the way. Sale of assets by ANZ Bank most likely scenario.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by sniper


NBR this morning - liquidation on the way. Sale of assets by ANZ Bank most likely scenario.



.... and as MacDunk said many a year ago manufacturing well end up in Asia somewhere ..... was inevitable wasn't it ..... but wasn't the exit strategy of the previous owners timed exquisitely!!!!!!!

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion


discl: hold at average price of 13.7 cents, dollars spent in six figures, dollars held in reserve for recapitalisation, 4 times dollars spent.


... Thats not much more than 0.5% ....

[sniper]

Several parties waiting on the sidelines to pick up Feltex's assets cheaply .... according to NBR (deadly accurate assessment and reporting by them on Feltex).

The ANZ is calling the shots and it's priority will be to get its money back - bugger shareholders.

[Jess9]

I made a joke several pages back about swapping out of another share at 5c, one for one into FTX... maybe the old saying, never a truer word said in jest??

[lanenz]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

My, my. The game isn't over yet and already the gloating has begun.

Jolly: I think we are up to about Act III of a four part play.

Ain't all over until the fat lady sings ... That usually happens at the end of act four (according to jolly anyway).

discl: hold at average price of 13.7 cents, dollars spent in six figures, dollars held in reserve for recapitalisation, 4 times dollars spent. The last act of the play is usually the most interesting but the suspence is killing me ...
This is like a roulette player doubling up on red when black has struck 10 times in a row. Chasing chasing chasing until the point of no return (no pun intended)

Why not dump the lot, take a 20k hit or whatever and live to fight another day.

Sorry, Bel..IMO to chase down a stock like this is showing shows of desperation.

ps. If you come out smelling of roses at the end of the FTX saga then you will get my sincerest congrats.

[bushbasher]

As the old saying goes if you want to earn a small fortune, start with a large fortune...

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

If . If NBR is right, the last time I took a hit like this was '97 ... it was a sign that cashing up and keeping only the cream was the right think to do ... Where the hell is that fat lady ???


Funny you mentioned 1997 .... the last time the yield curve looked like what it is today was 1997 ..... a REAL recession on the cards?

[Toddy]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

If NBR is right ... comes dow to NTA and how much holders will get ... bug ger all probably. If NBR is right, the last time I took a hit like this was '97 ... it was a sign that cashing up and keeping only the cream was the right think to do ... Where the hell is that fat lady ???


97 was the last time FTX went broke!

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by sniper



Shorted some yesterday so good on you as sellers need buyers ...



Who on earth would lend you FTX shares to short?

Unless it's from the house account of the brokerage firm you work for.

[bushbasher]

Unless he's doing naked shorting. Naughty boy...

[bushbasher]

or perhaps he's borrowing Belg's position..?

[J R Ewing]

I might be missing something here, but I can't see why we have buyers for this share at this moment. Surely IF a rights issue eventuates at say 10c, then the market value of the shares would not be a large multiple of this immediately. That won't happen until the restructured company has traded its way out of the mire. Surely better to wait until a rescue package is confirmed and then buy in at a slightly higher price if you are convinced the business is viable in the longer term.

What is the rush to buy today?

[bushbasher]

quote:Notable has been the extensive media coverage of this company. Unprecedented really for a company worth less than $20m.
Perhaps because it used to be a $250m company.

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by Heavy Metal


quote:Originally posted by sniper



Shorted some yesterday so good on you as sellers need buyers ...



Who on earth would lend you FTX shares to short?

Unless it's from the house account of the brokerage firm you work for.


Give Forbar a call. Simple. :D

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

My, my. The game isn't over yet and already the gloating has begun.

Jolly: I think we are up to about Act III of a four part play.

Ain't all over until the fat lady sings ... That usually happens at the end of act four (according to jolly anyway).

discl: hold at average price of 13.7 cents, dollars spent in six figures, dollars held in reserve for recapitalisation, 4 times dollars spent. The last act of the play is usually the most interesting but the suspence is killing me ...


Gee, last time you told us, your average cost was something like 25 cents, you sure must have bought a bucketload to bring your average cost down so much. Good luck to you if it pays off, but I'd personaly prefer the odds at a casino.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

HM ... I think that sniper has already mentioned he works for a brokering house.

Thus, almost by definition, he is likely to be a scoundrel.

Scoundrel or not, he definately wouldnt be stupid enough to hold on to a share in a three year downtrend. Anyone left holding the baby at this point must surely go broke one day playing the market. Play about with bottoms, and you will end up holding the baby covered in crap, sooner if not later. macdunk

[sniper]

Ah ... a few losers who did not want to follow good advice now thrashing about as they wait for the inevitable.

Should we feel sorry for you? ;)

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by kura

[
Gee, last time you told us, your average cost was something like 25 cents, you sure must have bought a bucketload to bring your average cost down so much. Good luck to you if it pays off, but I'd personaly prefer the odds at a casino.



Haven't you heard about Belg's Pyramids .... better than MacDunks timelines

[Lizard]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Haven't you heard about Belg's Pyramids


Are these the kind that you build from the top down?

[Pennywise]

Isn't it amazing to you STers that every time the share price drops, Belgarion always comes up with this "average" just above the closing price.

I would love for you to put up a real list of ALL trades

numbers Belgarion, volume and price.

You have been chasing it down from what 50c? 36c? 33? 32?

just recently it was 25c?

now 13.7! comeon...you expect us to really swollow that.

As the lows have been around 11c and that last time you reported an average of 25c (if we are to believe that too)

then show us how you got to 13.7c from 25c with already heaps under your belt.

I just would like to know how you managed this amazing 13.7c in a couple of days...and remain in 6 figures;)


eg: Here is a senerio of how much you would need to buy AT NEARLY THE VERY BOTTOM to achieve that.

Lets say you have 1,000,000 @ ave 25c ($250k)

Buying 2m more shares @ 11c = ave 15.6c +($220k)
Buying 3m more shares @ 11c = ave 14.5c +($110k)
Buying 4m more shares @ 11c = ave 13.8c +($110k)

So to get even close you have purchased 4x more stock AT the near bottom and have spent in this example $690k to get there.

This all assumes you purchased NOTHING between 25c and 11c and purchased ALL your extra shares near the bottom.


If this is true, you really do have balls?

Either that or you had far less shares to start with than what you make out.

Either way you must have 5x the original stock you owned at 25c to even get close to 13.7c, and with an almost perfect buying senario at the bottom.

possibly you own about 5m shares worth $690k.

Can you confirm with real numbers.

[Pennywise]

The real trouble is with my senerio is it would be lucky if 4m shares have gone through in the last 2 days TOTAL.;)

Can anyone confirm how much volume has been done at around 11c?

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by Pennywise

The real trouble is with my senerio is it would be lucky if 4m shares have gone through in the last 2 days TOTAL.;)

Can anyone confirm how much volume has been done at around 11c?



Shhhhhhhhhhh ... you are embarassing him.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Pennywise

The real trouble is with my senerio is it would be lucky if 4m shares have gone through in the last 2 days TOTAL.;)

Can anyone confirm how much volume has been done at around 11c?


26/07/2006 Open 0.145, Close 0.133, High 0.151, Low 0.11, Volume 2720600
27/07/2006 Open 0.12, Close 0.112, High 0.12, Low 0.11, Volume 2517888

regards
Paper Tiger

[DCski13]

belgarion, you can't suff up mate. It's all us newbies that make all the mistakes!?! and mine was a semi-educated punt. I had 24k @ 23c. Sold for 11.2c each.

[Pennywise]

ok, can understand now you say just over 6 figures.

So you only had about $20k previously at around 25c, far less than what I had imagined after 5 months of talk.


I thought W69 said something about 5%? Joking I guess.


Even with PTs volume stats, you would have had to buy around 15-20% of available volume last 2 days to get to 13.7c I think.

Why can't you just put up your purchases last 2 days? No one knows who you are.

[kura]

I thought I would tell this story..... Once upon a time, when I first started playing with shares, I had this fancy spreadsheet to record cost, dividends, price, and gains/losses, so what would I do when I got sick of looking at my unrealised losses, why I would put through a "notional" sale and repurchase in my books, so I didn't have to stare at my losses each time I looked. No one ever saw my spreadsheet, so who was I trying to kid ? On reflection I was like an alcoholic in denial mode (problem ? what problem ? ) as it made it easier for me to continue to hold onto my "loosers" (Not that I would dare to suggest FTX was a looser )

[Lizard]

Maybe I am dense... but Belg, I really don't understand what you are trying to do.

Hoping you are set now and can enlighten (less cryptically than in the past) as to what you are actually expecting to happen here and what sort of % you realistically expect to make?

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

True Sniper me ol' mate ...

Although Im sitting waiting for sub 20c or the rights issue now ... 4.95% here we come

discl: belgie breaks even at 25.5 cents :)


Wow! $20,000 invested in Feltex at that time and he's talking 4.95% via the sub-20c price or rights issue. No wonder you are happy to risk it all.

[Ed]

Yes, please explain "pyrimids".

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly



FTX is First NZ Capital's baby. They have also been buying back in to the registry. A registry devoid of institutions and choc full of mums and pups.


The FNZC link explains why Sniper was ramping FTX to the hilt soon after the IPO.


quote:Originally posted by minder


Second overhang out of the way - this is going much much higher.[:p][:p][:p]

More news to come out on paying Australian imputation credits - takes gross yield in Australia to 11%.

:D:D:D:D

[The Doctor]

Belgurion found out as a 24k b/s artist...'dreamboat billie'!

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by matrix from the thread I wish I had read before I bought FTX* (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=18111&whichpage=3)

There will be many tears cried when the building downturn in Australasia bite into Feltex in the next few years.

Forbar is only doing what the 'thickos' out there want - high yields. CSFB however is very very smart to take advantage of their thickness.

Score - Feltex, CSFB and Forbar : several million dollars up each. 'Thicko' investors : many millions down already (but don't know).


*I suffered a "six figure loss" namely $2468.61

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

As I say, it reflects more on the organization they represent than the individual.

Ethic's, morals, integrity, professionalism. Never heard of them.

Reputations speak volumes. It's like a brand name. Why do people have faith buying Colgate toothpaste over the cheaper spoof brands? Because you can trust them.

Remember. Citibank and FNZC. Crooks.

See them dominating the registry or leading an IPO run a mile.
In my not sometimes not so humble opinion of course.


Jolly: neither company's websites mention this :D

[COLIN]

In conversations about the sharemarket with non-shareholding friends I sometimes get told that "it is just a casino". I do my best to try and convince them otherwise, but after scanning through the host of recent posts on this thread I just shake my head in disbelief that there are seemingly "well experienced" investors who appear to be desperate to prove that maybe my friends are right!
Pray, tell me, on what basis would someone place a "buy" order at 12 cents for this share, this week? Or 50 cents, or 5 cents, or whatever? have the Directors given any real guidance? It has been total and utter guesswork. And I find it absolutely bizarre that the company asks for a 2-day market trading halt pending an announcement, issues a totally useless styatement after that, and then lets the market rip. Why not keep trading suspended until something had been resolved? (A company like PRG can be "off-market" for many weeks with scarcely a murmur from anyone!) My only conclusion is that they re-opened the market to let existing holders bail out with a few cents to show for their investment, before the receivers move in - for, believe me, there are very few instances where companies sucessfully trade out of receivership and are handed back to the shareholders.

Well, at least when this all ends in tears no-one who subscribes to this forum will be able to say that they weren't warned by some savvy investors. I am surprised that Phaedrus hasn't appeared on the thread for quite a while - he's probably too stunned by the bizarre behaviour of the market lemmings to muster up the needed strength to comment further.

Disclosure: For the record, I did buy some FTX when Godfrey Hirst took up a holding, but I bailed out when they took fright.

[Snow Leopard]

COLIN: You need to acccept that some people are willing to take the risk, sometimes they lose but sometimes they win, and presumably, the wins more than outweigh the losses.
On another level if no-one was willing to buy at 12c then there would be no trades and you would not be posting.

"It takes all sorts to make a world"

Jolly: you have your own thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=19697) to whinge about your perceived injustices. Kindly retire back to there.

with best wishes
Paper Tiger

[Heavy Metal]

Amazing how Sniper changed his tune from 2003 when a competitor brokerage got its snout in the Feltex trough via the bond issue.


quote:Originally posted by matrix from the thread I wish I had read before I bought FTX* (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=18111&whichpage=3)

There will be many tears cried when the building downturn in Australasia bite into Feltex in the next few years.

Forbar is only doing what the 'thickos' out there want - high yields. CSFB however is very very smart to take advantage of their thickness.

Score - Feltex, CSFB and Forbar : several million dollars up each. 'Thicko' investors : many millions down already (but don't know).

[sniper]

Plenty of warnings even as Feltex spiralled down but hi, we believe (says punters) in Feltex so we bought and averaged down (bad move). We are now sitting on massive losses so someone is to be blamed. Let's look around and throw some insinuations around.

Shhhhhhhhhhhhh ...like us to donate to you all a mirror? ;)

Collections of warnings fro NBR :

"Feltex on its knees ...." 23 June

"Feltex at the mercy of investors ...." 27 July

"NZX urged to investigate Feltex ...." 27 June

"Future bleak for Feltex shareholders ...." 26 July

"Potential Feltex investor wthdraws ..." 3 July

Unravelling of Feltex makes sorry tale

Saturday July 15, 2006
By Owen Hembry and Richard Inder


One of Auckland's largest carpet retailers has a message of hope for Feltex.

Cavendish Carpets - a family-owned business that has been selling carpet out of Manukau for the past 15 years - says executives at the debt-laden carpet-maker are now answering the phone.

Cavendish owner Richard Wickett, who set up the retailer with his mother in 1991, said: "They used to be suits in ivory towers. You can put a face to just about any name that pops up now."

Years ago, executives did not take calls and it was even difficult to get their phone numbers. Retailers also had to put up with invoice errors, delayed payments and investigations of mistakes.

"Nowadays, Feltex's accounts are clean," Wickett said.

The Cavendish comments are echoed by other retailers.

Feltex has held industry meetings to discuss and fix problems encountered by retailers and it is running a tighter range of products with better supply.

It has also cut the number of salesmen and, as a result, many are dealing with just one instead of four - with obvious benefits to service and Feltex's bottom line.

"Each rep is on 60-odd grand plus a company car," one retailer said. "So you are looking at a quarter of a million dollars worth of salaries for four reps to come into your shop."

That is where the good news ends - shareholders are unlikely to enjoy any of these gains.

Feltex's woes have been well traversed but, for the sake of completeness, it was one of New Zealand's oldest manufacturers and returned to the NZX in 2004, after a 15-year break, at $1.70 a share. It promised strong, sustainable profit growth, thanks to its recent attention to costs, its control of the Australasian market, product innovation and established customer relationships.

But the mainly mum and dad investors who bought Feltex shares were sorely disappointed. On April Fool's Day last year, Feltex warned that profits would be a third less than projected at the time of its float.

It has since been criticised by the stock exchange for failing to properly inform the market of its problems and, although it never admitted liability, the company paid up $150,000 in settlement.

Feltex has also revised its earnings forecasts four more times. The latest came last month when it said reorganisation costs were higher than it expected and - more worrying - that it was in breach of its banking covenants and it needed new equity.

The shares have since slumped, closing yesterday at 23c, wiping more than $216 million from Feltex's market value.

The key reasons put forward for Feltex's problems are many, depending often on whom one talks to. But all sources agree the company was hit by a sharp and sudden downturn in the Australian housing market at the start of 2004.

After that things get murky.

Some talk of a failure to get new product in time and a failure of the company's information systems, resulting in its machines producing well in excess of demand.

Others say company shakeups - including the axing of almost 50 senior executives and the closure of a Melbourne yarn plant - after the April 1 profit warning denuded Feltex of the key relationships and skills needed to drive the business.

Whatever the explanation,

[sniper]

And this in the NZ Herald yesterday but let's buy some more Feltex shares - it's from the media and we know they only like bad news.

Stock takes: Roll up, roll up ...

Friday July 28, 2006
By Liam Dann

The sad saga of Feltex Carpets descended into "lucky dip" territory this week as the company continued negotiating for its life. In one simultaneous hit, luckless shareholders were told that the stock - on a halt since Monday - was about to begin trading again and that the outcome of negotiations was likely to make the shares worth "materially less" than their current price.

Eh? How much is material on a share that has already lost 90 per cent of its value? How long is a piece of string? Well, about 8c as it turned out as the shares quickly dropped to about 13c. They closed at 11.2c yesterday. That's not to say the market actually knows what the final value will be when (or if) a deal is finally done, it's just that for many investors there is a certain price point where it is no longer worth cutting their losses.

Any real value in the company has now been wiped out; all that remains is potential to create new value. Feltex is now effectively a start-up, which - for a once proud manufacturer with a globally respected brand - is a national disgrace.

[Lizard]

Belg, I make CAV normalised EBITDA for 2005 to be about $38m, so a EBITDA multiple of 6 as has been used on FTX gives it a value of $228m. Current market cap $222m, but has net debt.

I used a similar calc on pg 37 of this thread when I wanted a short cut to value FTX. I used a lower multiple of 5 - based on actual figures I had observed being used in company purchases these days of growing businesses. Probably 6 has been chosen to reflect that the forecast EBITDA is below company potential. NPAT multiples are of interest in takeovers/share purchases. EBITDA multiples when the business assets only are being considered for purchase as a going concern.

[kura]

Thats a complicated broker set up Belg

I'm not going to quibble about the enterprise valuation of 6 times EBITDA, ( 6 times "real" earnings would definitely be too low) and am prepared to accept that co is worthless on that basis, but I'm not sure if that means all is lost, as there could be some value arising from the $25 million in expected asset sales they reported on a month or two back.

As a recovery stock I'd be prepared to have a punt, but only once the threat of receivers reduces.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion
[brJust an observation ... pundits are quoting the "6 times earning" valuation ... Just where did the "6" come from? Becuase it nicely fits makes FTX look valueless? Why not 7 times? Or 8 times? What's CAV on? (DB has CAV at 14 times!) Goodfrey Hirst? If the "6" is too low ... whats FTX really worth?

.


Come on Belg .... don't try to kid us .... you know full well that that the '6 times' is 6 times EBITDA .... and you know that the 14 you quoteed above is 14 times NPAT

Current price of CAV has EV/EBITDTA about 8 (depending on whose forecast you use) ..... about 7.5 on last years performance but as we know even they are down this year.

Average for industrial related stocks on the NZX is about 8 .... about the same as the ASX

So whats wrong with those pundits putting '6 times' on Feltex .... seems about right .... assuming there is a future

Seems like you are the one trying to come up with a number to make Feltex worth something .... keep at it mate .... some might believe you and buy your shares on Monday

PS ... good to see you spent just a little more near the close to get the closing price up to 13 instead of 11.5 as it was just before 5pm .... 16% rise for the day makes good reading eh

[Lizard]

Kura, do you seriously think FTX has $25m of useful/saleable assets sitting there that were making NO contribution to EBITDA in terms of either income or cost saving? It would seem a little unusual - especially for a company that already had the Private Equity makeover relatively recently...

[kura]

Hmm, Good point Lizard !

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Kura, do you seriously think FTX has $25m of useful/saleable assets sitting there that were making NO contribution to EBITDA in terms of either income or cost saving? It would seem a little unusual - especially for a company that already had the Private Equity makeover relatively recently...


.... so you are saying that 'disposing' of them will affect future earnings ability .... right on Lizard

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion


Just an observation ... pundits are quoting the "6 times earning" valuation ... Just where did the "6" come from? Becuase it nicely fits makes FTX look valueless? Why not 7 times? Or 8 times? What's CAV on? (DB has CAV at 14 times!) Goodfrey Hirst? If the "6" is too low ... whats FTX really worth?



FYI, FTX was IPOed at 6.7 times EBITDA (with growth prospects and a sound future). Refer the prospectus.

So what do you think is a fair multiple for a company with no growth prospects and no future. Especially with $5m of the EBITDA coming from a subsidy!

Far enough point though - shareholders can still extract some value if a buyer is prepared to pay a EBITDA multiple of 6.14 times (using EBITDA of $21m).

But who is going to pay that? Sue Bradford?

[Lizard]

LOL Jolly! That was the most hilarious post I have yet read on this thread... thanks for the entertainment. (Don't forget to take your meds and please stop banging your head on the wall before you kill any more brain cells...)

[kura]

Just a question regards the Enterprise Value to EBITDA debate, but my question is in regard to the EBIT part of the equation, in that is based on current figure, at a relatively low point in the building cycle (could even go much lower, don't ask me, I don't know)

Most of my investing is on ASX resource stocks, which are at a cyclical high, but whenever you look at analysts valuations, they ignore current metal/product prices, and typically base their valuations on some theoretical "mid cycle" type price, which seems reasonable enough to me.

So my question is, "Shouldn't FTX be valued, on a multiple of some mid cycle type EBIT figure ?" Sure, such a number wouldn't be easy to calculate, but it is behind my thinking that there could be some value still in FTX. Interested to hear opposite arguements

Disc: not holding, but thinking about it, though I wouldn't touch them untill future is certain. (ie post restructuring) (Rule #1 Preserve Capital)

[Halebop]

Kura I'd suggest this could well be mid cycle. Australia is patchy and NZ is still pretty robust but softening.

Feltex are a long term culturally inbred underperformer. They were a dog as a mini conglomerate. A dog for the 80s raiders. A dog for BTR. A dog for private equity (who escaped by fortuituous market timing). A most spectacular dog as a publicly listed company once again. Like most dogs they only make decent returns when things are great. To look at the difference between a good operator and an average to poor one, track EBITA multiple everyone is muttering about here for both FTX and CAV.

On EBITA: It's a totally BS number for most companies but particularly for manufacturers. Capex is too important to ignore by focusing on the headline number. EBIT and debt need to be taken into account. EBITA is a number used by merchant bankers to sell the unsellable. To ignore depreciation and capex is to suggest they can survive for any extended period without capex. Absurd logic first sold during the LBO Boom in the 80s. It didn't work then. It doesn't work now. Pretty soon people are gonna wise up as to what "Private Equity" really means. It's all been done before.

[Lizard]

Carpet can be more cyclical than most - "How about we just get it cleaned this year, honey?"...

Not too many years ago, I seem to remember carpet suppliers were struggling to keep up with demand because of a lack of capacity. Now Feltex is reducing capacity. In the next boom, they will have to find that capacity yet again.

I agree with Halebop, that this could well be mid-cycle earnings. I doubt rescuers will be willing to allow for a sudden turn-around in their calculations of value. What is more, Feltex must have been focussed on cashflow at any cost for the past year - the damage of that kind of strategy could take a couple of years to work it's way through the accounts imo. Right now, it could be getting uglier by the minute if suppliers are tightening their credit terms and customers exercising their upper hand in price negotiations as might be expected in this situation.

[kura]

OK,OK, so both my arguements for there being some remaining intrinsic value in FTX get shot down in flames, Hmm, just a matter of time before receivership then, according to this scenario.

As no-one would underwrite a rights issue in current circumstances, could be "game over" within next month or so.

Disc: (For Lizard) I did some work for a CIL subsidiary (Corporate Investments Ltd, before it morphed into Montana Wines) and I know all to well what the implications of the "cash flow at any cost" type strategy means. (ie stuffs up longer term prospects )

Thanks for constructive comments anyway.

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Geez I hate banks. Thank someone for mobile comms.

Just had quick sqizz through who the major holders are. Talk about 'everyone having a toe in the water'.

Okay ... So what's going to happen? Current price will stagnate or fall as we flush out the small holders who came in for the IPO and got stuffed. Then the big boys move in when the time is right for them. At 39c, many must be itching but they can increase their gains by buying small which will allow them to up their bids/holding when the small holders are flushed out. They will further increase their holdings when the right issue is announced.

LOL, here comes my girl, gourgous she is, just loverly ... I like them smart and mature. :)
[:o)][:o)][:o)][:o)][:o)][:o)][:o)]

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by The Doctor

Belgurion found out as a 24k b/s artist...'dreamboat billie'!


I think you are being rather unkind here Doc, but then again you never encouraged others to hop onto a sinking ship either.

Disc: Just passing time waiting for the footy

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by belgarion
[brJust an observation ... pundits are quoting the "6 times earning" valuation ... Just where did the "6" come from? Becuase it nicely fits makes FTX look valueless? Why not 7 times? Or 8 times? What's CAV on? (DB has CAV at 14 times!) Goodfrey Hirst? If the "6" is too low ... whats FTX really worth?

.


Come on Belg .... don't try to kid us .... you know full well that that the '6 times' is 6 times EBITDA .... and you know that the 14 you quoteed above is 14 times NPAT

Current price of CAV has EV/EBITDTA about 8 (depending on whose forecast you use) ..... about 7.5 on last years performance but as we know even they are down this year.

Average for industrial related stocks on the NZX is about 8 .... about the same as the ASX

So whats wrong with those pundits putting '6 times' on Feltex .... seems about right .... assuming there is a future

Seems like you are the one trying to come up with a number to make Feltex worth something .... keep at it mate .... some might believe you and buy your shares on Monday

PS ... good to see you spent just a little more near the close to get the closing price up to 13 instead of 11.5 as it was just before 5pm .... 16% rise for the day makes good reading eh






haahaha, it takes a sharp eye to catch a forked tongue...


BTW Belg, I never expected you would be able to manage such a simple task...

with nearly 6000 posts, how on earth would you have the time;)

[winner69]

C'mon Belg .... your employees (all 900 of them) want to know their fate ... soon .... stand up man and demand your management resolve this as soon as possible

Carpet workers soon to hear fate
http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3748602a13,00.html

At least the order book is full .... what the heck ... adding to the stockpile in times of need
makes a lot of sense

But a good reminder that in spite of many restructures over the years they still can't make any money ... not a good sign for the future.

[Toddy]

Cannot believe that there are still buyers out there for the FTX shares. Its pure gambling, and blind gambling at that.

[limegreen]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion
But you never know given who holds the parlimentary seats in the areas that would be most effected by the demise of FTX.


You're not wrong. Simon Power and Gerry Brownlee hold a fair bit of sway. John Hayes keeps a fairly low profile. Then if they can get Darren Hughes on side...[8D]

[kittydashwood]

good work jolly.
IT workers who become an[:p]lists for FCNZ should stick to rebooting servers.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Toddy

Cannot believe that there are still buyers out there for the FTX shares. Its pure gambling, and blind gambling at that.

Toddy, There is always a mug somewhere that will buy, and hold anything in a confirmed downtrend. Even the workforce in the company.
Its not a gamble problem, it goes deeper than that. Make people feel guilty about winning, then encourage losers to lose. The tall poppy syndrome, some people seem to be desperate to lose, and will go right out their way to do that. I found it very hard to understand at first coming from a win at all costs up bringing, but some people actually go out their way to lose.
I suppose its the namby pamby upbringing in dont kick little Johnny up the backside when he comes last. macdunk

[DCski13]

macdunk. There is a whole psychology around lossing. It'll knock ya socks off. You've barely scraped the surface. Anyway, for one, it's not a namby pamby unbringing; much more to it and I see you've probably never had to stop and rethink and rework the questions of the soul. No need to go there, then don't.

Did you see in one of my comments that when Roslyn Woollen Mills went under in the 70's, people were lining up to buy shares dispite brokers in Dunedin telling people not to go there!

Moving on... why don't people wait until FTX morphs into FTX Mark III. Much more sensitible and stop and rethink and revisit ones strategy.

[DCski13]

quote:Originally posted by Toddy

Cannot believe that there are still buyers out there for the FTX shares. Its pure gambling, and blind gambling at that.


One annswer - there's money in muck.[:p]



Dics: sold out at .128

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by Toddy

Cannot believe that there are still buyers out there for the FTX shares. Its pure gambling, and blind gambling at that.


Interesting, as I frequently punt on risky Oil & Gas shares on ASX, and with a bit of work you can figure out a "rough" risk/reward type ratio, for example there is one currently drilling now (GDN) with a current share price of 21 cents, failure would bring price below 10 cents, and success would take price over $5.00 (conservatively) What I am saying with that company, is that I am willing to risk 10 cents (50% of value) to make $4.80, the probability of success is say 10%, so you don't have to be particularly bright to figure out if the odds look reasonable or not.

With FTX you are risking say 12 cents (being 100% of value), and what are the potential gains if receivership is avoided ? (lucky if you could expect to double your money, ie another 12 cents) Though I would think the probability of success would be better than 10% (I'd say 50/50 at the moment )

With GDN, you could say its risk adjusted vavue is 50 cents (10% risk of $5.00) however for this "risky" value of 50 cents, you can buy it for 21 cents, over 50% discount for risk. Applying same logic to FTX, there is effectively no discount for risk, sure most of assumptions are just off the top of my head type guesses, and no doubt someone could tweak the numbers arround, but even as a gamble, the odds don't seem compelling.

[GTM 3442]

quote:
Moving on... why don't people wait until FTX morphs into FTX Mark III. Much more sensitible and stop and rethink and revisit ones strategy.


Why wait?

Opportunity.

There will be "stuff" going on with Feltex over the next wee while. Who knows what the "stuff" will turn out to be. Who knows how long the "wee while" will turn out to be. But when "stuff" happens, there's usually some money to be made.

And you can't make the money if you're not in the game.

So pick some up around the 8 - 14 cent mark and wait. . . .

[jonny5]

haha. I like your strategy

Phase 1: Stuff happens
Phase 2: ????
Phase 3: Profit!

[trackers]

quote:Originally posted by GTM 3442


quote:
Moving on... why don't people wait until FTX morphs into FTX Mark III. Much more sensitible and stop and rethink and revisit ones strategy.


Why wait?

Opportunity.

There will be "stuff" going on with Feltex over the next wee while. Who knows what the "stuff" will turn out to be. Who knows how long the "wee while" will turn out to be. But when "stuff" happens, there's usually some money to be made.

And you can't make the money if you're not in the game.

So pick some up around the 8 - 14 cent mark and wait. . . .


Lol...

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Just an observation ... pundits are quoting the "6 times earning" valuation ... Just where did the "6" come from? Becuase it nicely fits makes FTX look valueless? Why not 7 times? Or 8 times? What's CAV on? (DB has CAV at 14 times!) Goodfrey Hirst? If the "6" is too low ... whats FTX really worth?



This is without doubt a most revealing post.

Good on you W69.

Who is the mug? ;)

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Doom and gloom ... Keep it coming ;)

discl: hold and will be buying more when it slumps back to 33. (Why? My spreadsheet says so ;))


Hope your spreadsheet can tell the difference between EBITDA, EBIT, NPBT and NPAT.

FYI - as they apply uniquely to Feltex :

EBITDA = Earnings Before I Totally Duped (the) Auditor.
EBIT = Earnings Before I Tanked.
NPBT = No Profit But Trust (Consultus & BOD).
NPAT = Nonsense Profit After Trusting (Consultus & BOD).

[Gryffyn]

that's actually amusing

[sniper]

Jolly,

SSSSShhhhhhh ..... next you will let the cat out of the bag about Sue Bradford entering negotiations over the weekend. ;)

[sniper]

It's getting too serious folks .... enjoy. [8D]
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Q: What did the Australian do after raking the leaves?
A: He fell out of the tree.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

This is a little known tale of how God came to give the Jews the Ten Commandments.

God first went to the Egyptians and asked them if they would like a commandment. "What's a commandment?" they asked. "Well, it's like, THOU SHALT NOT COMMIT ADULTERY," replied God. The Egyptians thought about it and then said, "No way, that would ruin our weekends."

So then God went to the Assyrians and asked them if they would like a commandment. They also asked, "What's a commandment?" "Well," said God, "It's like, THOU SHALT NOT STEAL." The Assyrians immediately replied, "No way. That would ruin our economy."

So finally God went to the Jews and asked them if they wanted a commandment. They asked, "How much?" God said, "They're free."

The Jews said, "Great! We'll take TEN!"

------------------------------------------------------------------

"Did you see the new bomb the government came up with? It weights 21,000 pounds. The Air Force tested this bomb in Florida and the bomb blast was so strong at Disneyworld 25 French tourists surrendered."

-------------------------------------------------------------------

"I don't know why people are surprised that France won't help us get Saddamout of Iraq. After all, France wouldn't help us get the Germans out of France!"

-------------------------------------------------------------------

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by sniper


It's getting too serious folks .... enjoy. [8D]
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Q: What did the Australian do after raking the leaves?
A: He fell out of the tree.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

This is a little known tale of how God came to give the Jews the Ten Commandments.

God first went to the Egyptians and asked them if they would like a commandment. "What's a commandment?" they asked. "Well, it's like, THOU SHALT NOT COMMIT ADULTERY," replied God. The Egyptians thought about it and then said, "No way, that would ruin our weekends."

So then God went to the Assyrians and asked them if they would like a commandment. They also asked, "What's a commandment?" "Well," said God, "It's like, THOU SHALT NOT STEAL." The Assyrians immediately replied, "No way. That would ruin our economy."

So finally God went to the Jews and asked them if they wanted a commandment. They asked, "How much?" God said, "They're free."

The Jews said, "Great! We'll take TEN!"

------------------------------------------------------------------

"Did you see the new bomb the government came up with? It weights 21,000 pounds. The Air Force tested this bomb in Florida and the bomb blast was so strong at Disneyworld 25 French tourists surrendered."

-------------------------------------------------------------------

"I don't know why people are surprised that France won't help us get Saddamout of Iraq. After all, France wouldn't help us get the Germans out of France!"

-------------------------------------------------------------------



Gee Sniper, at least I try to have some relevance to the FTX topic in my posts, sorry, your far too esoteric for me.

[Halebop]

Perhaps Sniper means FTX is a joke? Shareholders must be hanging out for the punchline.

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by Halebop

Perhaps Sniper means FTX is a joke? Shareholders must be hanging out for the punchline.


I suspect FTX is a joke, just as I suspect NZX is a joke, as a minimum requirement, NZX should have required some declaration of solvency, before they reinstated FTX trading last week..(Otherwise trading should have remained suspended )

Maybe I'm just used to the relatively reasonable rules that apply to ASX companies, just a pity that NZX is like the "last frontier" of the wild west, when it comes to corporate governance & fairness type issues.

[Base Trader]

This mornings Herald leads with Godfrey Hurst as taking Feltex with a share payout and debt repayment. What the payout will be is the big question (if the Herald has it right).

It is very nice of GH to payout anything.

A huge embarassment for Management who turned down the friendly advance. Now they have no choice and if GH had been ruthless they could have taken all SH value and some of the debt also.

Unfortunately some Feltex people will now be looking for work in the near future as a rationalisation is inevitable.

Last hurdle is regulatory approval but I do not see how they can say no.

[sniper]

If NZ Herald article is right (source close to the deal?), one can understand why Feltex refers to restructuring rather than recapitalisation or takeover.

Restructuring because the company is being sold - lock, stock and barrel - to GH to repay the bank with bugger all left for shareholders.

Stock will go into trading halt again (?) and then, FTX shareholders will find out their fate.

[Gryffyn]

Australian arch-rival set to win new bid for Feltex

Tuesday August 1, 2006
By Richard Inder

Australian company Godfrey Hirst is on the verge of striking a deal to rescue carpet maker Feltex, sources close to the deal say.

The move, which would create the largest carpet maker in Australasia with combined sales of $750 million, could be announced as soon as today.

The sources say that under the deal, Feltex assets would be combined with those of its longtime arch-rival.

Feltex investors would receive a cash payment for their shares, and the company would be delisted from the NZX.

ANZ Bank would recoup most, if not all, the $129 million it has lent Feltex.

This contrasts with recent suggestions that a rescue package would make Feltex shares worthless and require ANZ to convert some debt into equity.

The better outlook may reflect the presence of at least one other party interested in buying the company.

If Godfrey Hirst were the only bidder, it may have been able to persuade ANZ to let Feltex's assets be sold piecemeal.

Feltex has been at the mercy of its bank since June, when it said it expected to breach loan agreements requiring its total debt to be no less than 3.5 times its trading profits (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation).

Its debt is $129 million - equivalent to almost 6.3 times this year's expected trading profits of about $20 million.

Godfrey Hirst and Feltex would not comment last night.

Feltex listed on the NZX in 2004 at $1.70 a share, valuing the firm at $240 million.

But the share price has plunged amid a string of profit warnings.

Last week they reached a record low of 11.2c, valuing the company at $16 million, after it said any rescue capital could push the value of the shares "significantly" below the then price of 21c.

Any deal with Godfrey Hirst will have to go over several hurdles including Feltex opening its books to the Australian company and a shareholder vote at what is sure to be a heated special general meeting.

And it will be a source of considerable embarrassment to Feltex directors, led by chairman Tim Saunders and chief executive Peter Thomas.

In February, they terminated talks with Godfrey Hirst on a merger that is understood to have been worth as much as 60c a share.

Godfrey Hirst - privately owned by New Zealander Kim McKendrick - took advantage of Feltex's sliding profits to make its first approach in June last year after paying almost $5 million for 5.83 per cent of Feltex.

It later lifted its stake to 8.72 per cent, but sold all its shares after the talks collapsed.

The Talley family is also understood to have entered negotiations for the firm, but then opted out.

The outcome of the talks is being viewed nervously by Feltex's near 900 staff in carpet-making plants in Christchurch and the lower North Island.

[Toddy]

Well, time to guess the cash offer per share heading the way of FTX shareholders soon.

I'll start the bid at 5 cents per share CASH.

[warthog]

So the market is valuing FTX damn close to NZ$19.5m - is this looking close to a round valuation figure?

Somebody knows something (the warthog learnt this trick from Donald Rumsfeld).

[Toddy]

TRADING HALT... show down at HIGH NOON

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by bongo66

Looks like you stand to lose your dough here Belgarion...


No way, wait for the "I break even at XXX" revision again

[trackers]

Tense day...good luck to all the brave holders out there (I personally feel that if you got in around the 11c mark you should be all good....but we will see)

[bushbasher]

On the assumption that the market trades perfectly efficiently (including certain disemination of inside information -not making accusations, just theorizing) then the fact that the market has been trading around 10-12c for several days given that there was a chance that shareholders would get nothing seems to suggest to me that the number is around 12-15c.

This would still be consistent with the Feltex announcement that it would be materially less than the 23c it was trading at the time.

I think the fact that there were two potential suitors radically improved the outlook for current shareholders, compared to having just one party to pick over the bones.

[GTM 3442]

Half an hour to an announcement - looks like "stuff" might be about to happen ?

Freely admit that it may just as easily be bad "stuff" though.

If it is, I wonder what I'll lose on $0.112/unit ?

But can't help wondering if it will be the same sort of "stuff" that made us all so much money out of Tower, Toll/TranzRail, F&P Appliances, (amongst others).

[evedder]

Im nervously excited and I dont hold any FTX... Better than most drama's on TV at the mo

[Noodle]

Ok...so wheres this news we are all waiting for?

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Noodle

Ok...so wheres this news we are all waiting for?



Wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow

Remember .... this is an Aussie run company .... NZ shareholders are just a big nuisance .....

[warthog]

The warthog is just on the sidelines here - no material interest - but it does appear to be a complete shambles, with NZX kept in the dark as much as everybody else. NZX don't know what's going on - almost two hours after the FTX-requested announcement time - so they're just continuing the trading halt in advance of an announcement although it is obvious that they have no idea when this will be.

[moimoi]

12 o'clock aussie time maybe :-)

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by jonny5

haha. I like your strategy

Phase 1: Stuff happens
Phase 2: ????
Phase 3: Profit!


In that case Feltex management is copying the 'Underpants Gnomes' technique which was as follows:

Phase 1: Collect underpants.
Phase 2: [?]
Phase 3: Profit!

[duncan macgregor]

I feel sorry for the workers in this situation. The investors that were holding through greed, stupidity or whatever other reason, have only themselves to blame. The workers with homes and occupations will lose out in a big way. The investors will only lose money which hopefully will end up in more deserving pockets. Whatever happens the place will be closed down eventually, all carpet will be made in CHINA with most other manufacturing products. macdunk

[warthog]

"later this afternoon".

Does this sound like a company that is proceeding with negotiations in a careful structured fashion, or are they being pushed to the brink by their negotiations?
---------------------
FTX
01/08/2006
HALT

REL: 1350 HRS Feltex Carpets Limited

HALT: FTX: TRADING HALT EXTENSION

Feltex advises that the pending announcement by Feltex referred to in the NZX
Regulation release of this morning will be made to the market later this
afternoon, 1 August 2006.

Ends.
End CA:00134755 For:FTX Type:HALT Time:2006-08-01:13:50:57

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion


quote:Originally posted by evedder

Im nervously excited and I dont hold any FTX... Better than most drama's on TV at the mo


LOL ... Very true ... Think they'll make a movie? (Nah. Probably not.)


Page One of this thread had the yarn starting with a bottoming out SP around the $1.60 mark. What a journey it has been since then! Not so much a roller coaster but a one trip down the road to oblivion.

Tim Saunders competence has to be up there with the Pilot of the Michael Lermontov. Would it be too harsh to suggest the Sales Team resembles the crew at the Slough Office of Wernham Hogg. And I suspect the Finance people think a journal entry is something a teenage girl writes in her diary and an asset can be found in full glossy colour hanging in the gents loos in any of their factories.

[Snow Leopard]

"the Slough Office of Wernham Hogg"

that reminds me

Watch Extras on Prime at 9:30pm tonight

[Noodle]

It is obvious that a deal was close this morning, but has now fallen over completely, with Feltex trying to get at least something for its "failed" company.

The NZX should be taking a very close look at this company.
It all started with their false prospectus.

If I remember correctly, there was a good result released, then low and behold a few days later the company is in trouble.
A positive future is announced, then again more trouble.

And now we are here at 13c, about 2 years after Feltex entered the market at $1.70.

Heads must roll!!!!!!
And preferably not on the carpet as shareholders want something!!!

[warthog]

FTX
01/08/2006
AQNOTICE

REL: 1705 HRS Feltex Carpets Limited

AQNOTICE: FTX: GODFREY HIRST TO ACQUIRE FELTEX CARPETS

Feltex Carpets Limited (Feltex) has entered into an Agreement which proposes
the sale of its operations to Godfrey Hirst.

If the transaction is approved by Feltex shareholders and all other
conditions are satisfied, the transaction should result in a return to Feltex
shareholders of up to 12 cents per share.

As well as Feltex shareholder approval, the key conditions of the Agreement
are execution of formal sale and purchase documentation, completion of due
diligence by Godfrey Hirst, regulatory approvals by the Australian
Competition and Consumer Commission and Foreign Investment Review Board, and
the New Zealand Commerce Commission and the Overseas Investment Office. It
is expected that due diligence will be completed by 21 August 2006 and,
subject to obtaining necessary consents and approvals, settlement should
occur in early October.

Key elements of the proposed transaction are:

- Godfrey Hirst will acquire the shares of Feltex Australia Holdings Pty
Limited (through which Feltex Carpets Limited operates its Australian
business), and will acquire the assets and assume the non-interest bearing
liabilities of Feltex Carpets Limited in New Zealand;

- The consideration payable by Godfrey Hirst for the operations of Feltex
will be $141.8 million subject to movements in working capital until
settlement date (expected to be early October);

- The Company's bankers have agreed to facilitate this Agreement by allowing
a distribution to Feltex shareholders of up to 12 cents per share provided
various conditions are met;

- The final amount that will be available for return to Feltex shareholders
will be a function of the working capital adjustments, Feltex's trading cash
flow until settlement with Godfrey Hirst, prevailing exchange rates and the
interest bearing debt level at settlement. The maximum amount able to be
returned to Feltex shareholders is 12 cents per share;

- Of the $141.8 million to be paid by Godfrey Hirst, an amount will be held
in escrow as security for the warranties to be provided by Feltex to Godfrey
Hirst. The escrow arrangement is capped at $4.5 million which equals approx
3 cents per Feltex share. The period for escrow claims ends on 31 May 2007;

- It is currently expected that an initial return of capital to shareholders
will be made as soon as possible after settlement, with a second final return
of capital to be made following release of any remaining escrow.

The Proposal will be reviewed by an Independent Expert. It is expected that
a special meeting will be called in September for shareholders to vote on the
Proposal. The Proposal will require approval by 75% vote of Feltex
shareholders.

Feltex chairman Tim Saunders said the Board of Feltex has agreed to support
the Proposal in the absence of any alternative proposal being presented that
was more favourable to Feltex shareholders and the Company's stakeholders
than the Godfrey Hirst Proposal.

Feltex is free to receive and consider any alternative proposals until the
special shareholders' meeting, he said.

"We understand Feltex shareholders will be extremely disappointed with the
position that the company is now in. However, the Board believes Feltex's
debt levels are too high and, in the absence of alternatives, it should put
the Godfrey Hirst Proposal to shareholders.

"At an operating level the business has been generating positive cash flow.
However the market and profitability downturn of last year, and the
subsequent restructuring costs, meant that a balance sheet restructuring had
to occur in the near future.

"While the Board has worked hard on introducing new equity to the business,
we have not been able to attract proposals that we believe would have
resolved the concerns of the Bank."

This t

[Lizard]

Where are you sourcing announcements prior to 20min embargo?

[GTM 3442]

Well !

Looks like I'll be making "stuff" all.

What a "stuff" up.

Still, given $0.112 and $0.120, I guess I'm not completely "stuffed"

[Lizard]

Well at least it is not too ugly. Nor too profitable for speculators.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Where are you sourcing announcements prior to 20min embargo?


Lizard ..... not a good idea to ask such questions

[Toddy]

Ooch.

$1.70 to 12 cents.

Those mum's and dad's that have not followed the demise of FTX are going to get a surprise when a cheque arrives in the post.

Atleast that more of less puts an end to the FTX story and we can all move on.

[winner69]

...UP to 12 cents .... with 3 cents not due to next year some time ... as long as things don't go wrong (like were FTX telling porkies or something)


... and whats gets me is that Hirst still have to complete due diligence

[minimoke]

Tim’s negotiating skills has taken a $0.60 opportunity to $0.12 – and still shareholders are expected to cover his incompetence with a $1m bail out fee it they don’t agree to GF’s proposal. Truly bewildering!

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Toddy

Ooch.

$1.70 to 12 cents.

Those mum's and dad's that have not followed the demise of FTX are going to get a surprise when a cheque arrives in the post.

Atleast that more of less puts an end to the FTX story and we can all move on.


Some might think it is the overdue dividend cheque from last year .... oh that's mean

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Where are you sourcing announcements prior to 20min embargo?


Your broker should be able to help out with this.

[warthog]

This doesn't sound like an agreement reached with other parties in the frame. Well, FTX shareholders will have to wait until they find out if GH will proceed. Meanwhile, if FTX finds another party, GH get a wad of cash for their trouble, whereas FTX gets nothing if GH walks.

[kura]

Gee pretty pathetic return for the risk, given there is a gun to your head (recievers) not much option but to accept terms, just shows how wrong market got this value, if GH are only offering 12 cents, then it should have been trading pre offer at half as much.

[clearasmud]

Ok that deal not much good.
Whats the chance of a better deal?
The sp will have to head south again.

[Krustytheclown]

Given the inherit uncertainty in actually getting 12c.....I would bail if I was holding at hopefully above 10c!

Gee wizz Belgs this one must have you in tatters. No one actually believes your continually averaging down story (Down the sorry gurgler by the looks) to 13-14c average buy price.
I expect you will be keeping your Day Job for some time[B)].

Bloody glad I flicked my FTX trade on the same day months ago- made enough for a few happy meals. Happy I am not to hold.

The 1.70 Mum and Dad IPOees have been done like a dinner:(. IF I was one of them I would demand heads rolling down Queen St!
NOT GOOD for NZX cred!

G.

[Felix]

The two key words for me come before 12c and they are "up to". The company still needs to survive until settlement in October and the amount paid by Godfrey Hirst will be subject to a working capital adjustment - 12c could well be very optimistic given the wealth destruction that the directors have overseen to date.

I wonder what kind of termination payments the directors will receive when Godfrey Hirst sacks the lot of them. It's a sad state of affairs that the directors, who have destroyed shareholder wealth, will probably walk away with huge termination payments after the shareholders have been left with scraps.

Disc - bought in at 53c and sold for 12.0c

[Toddy]

New forum contest. Who lost the most money on FTX. Sometimes it helps to talk aout it.

Disc 0 Lost 0

[Pennywise]

100%ers are still so easy to find on the NZX:D:D:D

negative 100% that is;)


The sick thing is the turning down of 60c for max 12c.

The people in charge of that decision should be sweeping gutters from here on.

They are a JOKE

A list of Directors please...

[Krustytheclown]

Ohhh Bongo rubbing in the Salt......how mean;)!!!

Give me the shaker when your finished[:0]!

G.

[Krustytheclown]

Belgs was giving others encouragement to burn:( their cash as well........now seen as serious folly!
Shamefull Belgarion!

Poor be those who follow the Belgs:(:(:(.

Borax and salt......ohhhh belgs - its going to sting for a while!

G.

[evedder]

FTX got one thing right - it was significantly below the current price(21cents)lol

[kura]

Just been thinking about this deal, it has a lot of hurdles to overcome re approvals etc, so anyone care to pick opening price tomorrow ? It would have to trade well under 12 cents, given the risks ?

[moimoi]

"up to 12 cents"

seems Mr Market failed to interpret what "materially below" was defined as.......[xx(][xx(]

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

You are going to make a lot of money Belg. Just maybe not as soon as you think and not as much as you could have done.


Jolly sure led you up the garden path ....

.... or is it the other way round?

[kura]

Bongo, if you offered them to me at 10 cents, I wouldn't take them, Why ? risk/reward ratio is all wrong ! As there is still a risk of deal not being consumated, in which case its zero return once bank appoints receivers, you may wish to risk 10 cents to eventually make an additional 2.5, but odds arn't favourable enough to tempt me. (6 cents and below, then I'd be in)

[Krustytheclown]

The Jolly is Rogered ?...as is Belgs.

[Pennywise]

BELG said "So what should I do K9, sell or hold or buy?

Please tell us. I am apparently wrong so often that posters shouldn't follow me or even consider my posts ... because doggy-breath knows better. We have doggie-fart's word to go on. He knows lots and Belgarion's an idiot who keeps shovelling money into the markets and loosing every time.

You are K9, after all, an expert on value ... please enlighten us. We are awaiting your pearls of wisdom. We are, after all K9, just swine before your pearls.

Please, Please please K9 ... enlighten us all. What should we do? "



I did try to help him you know:D
Told him to go to AUD @ 93 I might add!!! and JPY @ 78

Poor newbs that follow this fool.

[Pennywise]

you were teasing only right? Bong...

move on people.

Belg will only lose about $40k ...if we believe his amazing 8th wonder of the world.[:I];)

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by bongo66


quote:Originally posted by Pennywise

you were teasing only right? Bong...

move on people.

Belg will only lose about $40k ...if we believe his amazing 8th wonder of the world.[:I];)


Im teasing, good on Belgarion for trying though it takes guts to take a risk BUT he was rubbing it in for those FTX holders losing money selling 1.70 shares to "him" as he thought he was going to be making it sometime in the future.

He neednt have such a big fat mouth otherwise I wouldnt be having so much fun now.


His buddy, Bongo


your home page is apt. I am sure the great belg only bought shares to help the workers. the UPTO in the release is bollix. My pick is 3 cents and then a further 1 at washup. Belg of course has averaged down so much that his massive holding owes him -10 cents and we must all read his posts on this thread to remind ourselves of his genius insights into investing before he has time to sweep them under the proverbial.:D

[Krustytheclown]

I saw Belgs down at Bunnings buying up all the Cheap brooms and shovels........and will soon be lifting the CARPETS to sweep this sorry episode under em;).

G.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Pennywise

you were teasing only right? Bong...

move on people.

Belg will only lose about $40k ...if we believe his amazing 8th wonder of the world.[:I];)


OK, so the warthog saw this one coming a mile away - if one might be allowed the occasional snort of vindication - as did a lot of people.

However, people with money take risks. Not your average "oh I might lose 5%" risks. Big risks, where the risk/reward is quite unacceptable to most investors or speculators.

Now, they are playing a bigger game whereby they lose quite a few plays, but over time, their home-runs outweigh the losers. If not, they lose money until they either go broke or realise their approach needs a change of tack.

So just because Belg lost out here - and he did, in spectacular fashion, complete with self-convincing spin - he might just be one of those whose big hits just sail out of the park, leaving us mere phacochoerus aethiopicus and our more modest returns, for dead.

Or maybe he just lost it totally. ;)

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Just an observation ... pundits are quoting the "6 times earning" valuation ... Just where did the "6" come from? Becuase it nicely fits makes FTX look valueless? Why not 7 times? Or 8 times? What's CAV on? (DB has CAV at 14 times!) Goodfrey Hirst? If the "6" is too low ... whats FTX really worth?



Seriously, Belg, you should stop investing in shares if you cannot tell the difference between ETIBDA multiple and PER. That's what is so revealing about this post.

Also, your spreadsheet must be giving you wrong numbers if your average price for FTX goes from 40 cents to 25.5 cents to 13.7 cents and you have only spent $100,000 to date.

Just don't try to BS us - just because you swallow FTX's BS doesn't mean we want yours. ;)

[Fodder]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

"the Slough Office of Wernham Hogg"

that reminds me

Watch Extras on Prime at 9:30pm tonight


Cheers PT I had forgotten this was on tonight...loved the opening episode last week...I knew there was a good reason for me to be reading this thread after all...kind of like reading the death notices in the newspaper.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

I reiterate myself, I just can't believe the nonsense on this thread.

...

Why would you believe anything FTX says?


A question the warthog has been pondering since FTX filed for IPO ... Why would anybody sell such an excellent buiness with so much upside, at the height or the market, without retaining a hand in the game?

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

Enjoy your day in the sun Sniper. Every dog has at least one. You know as well as I do its only fleeting.


You should have just listened to the warnings. Warnings based upon facts and reasonable asessments - not insinuations.

And here's another - shareholders vote for this deal or FTX goes under. ANZ is wisely allowing shareholders to make that choice - it accepts no responsibility for their actions.

Either way, GH gets FTX. This deal - FTX shareholders salvage ice-cream money for a sunny day and GH pays some money. FTX goes under - FTX shareholders get sunny days for free but they will have to pay for the ice-cream and GH gets FTX free.

Q - How did the right nut end up as a friend of the left nut?
A - They were introduced by the dick in between.

[Toddy]

Has ForBar finally changed their mind and recommending FTX as a sell yet.

SAD

[Fodder]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

I think I'm getting a stutter.

At approx. 5.10PM this afternoon the gong was struck.

It is now game on.




Yeah a major stutter..you might wanna get that looked at... Surely you meant to say "death knell" not "gong" and "game over" instead of game on!

[COLIN]

The bottom has just been found. It is only now a buy.


[/quote]

Jolly - If your statement above was meant to be taken seriously then you are clearly living in cloud cuckoo land. Clearly you have had very little, if any, direct involvement with distressed companies, either as a lender, or as a senior executive of a heavily indebted company itself. The bank holds all the cards, and I am somewhat surprised that Godfrey Hirst was prepared to offer a brass razoo to existing shareholders (albeit so full of provisos that at the end of the day it might amount to diddley squat). As I said in an earlier post, quoting an ancient Chinese saying, "The cockroach is never in the right as far as the fowl is concerned."
You, and Belgarion, etc., will have to learn to listen to the voices of experience, and not dismiss so readily those who have clearly learnt the hard way. (Well, many will have learnt the hard way as the result of chasing this sick puppy all the way down the slippery slope, hopefully.)

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly



Tell us then, what will happen if the resolution fails?

Pretty obvious, I would have thought! There is clearly no other viable potential buyer in the offing, and the bankers will not be prepared to wait around "in case something else comes out of the woodwork." They would move to appoint receivers asap.

[Osama Bin Tradin]

A fool and his money!!

[lanenz]

The max is 12cps but what is the minimum? Given the accounting practices that FTX are currently doing then its fair to say the real value is quite a bit less than the maximum offer price. Anyone selling above 10cps now can consider themselves lucky.

Even some of the dodgey car dealers offer a guarentted minimum trade in although you more than pay for it at the other end.

A poster mentioned its not over yet but i think the fat lady is just clearing her throat. There will be no miracles in the making from here.

Col Saunders should be fried for this and never be allowed to be a director again. There should be blood spilt at the meeting or will he get a consultant to front up instead.

[Krustytheclown]

Are you holding some L??

This whole mess was a stitch-up from the start and good generally older folk got sucked in by the Floggers-off of this Peaking Pup.

The NZX and promoting brokers should be flogged for this mess.

I am luckily only a "single day" trader of this three legged, one eyed, mangey mutt.

G.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by lanenz

The max is 12cps but what is the minimum? Given the accounting practices that FTX are currently doing then its fair to say the real value is quite a bit less than the maximum offer price. Anyone selling above 10cps now can consider themselves lucky.

Even some of the dodgey car dealers offer a guarentted minimum trade in although you more than pay for it at the other end.

A poster mentioned its not over yet but i think the fat lady is just clearing her throat. There will be no miracles in the making from here.

Col Saunders should be fried for this and never be allowed to be a director again. There should be blood spilt at the meeting or will he get a consultant to front up instead.


The warthog suspect - but may be wrong of course - that you have a swag of FTX lanenz. ;)

The answer to your question is that the minimum is - of course - zero cps.

TS will get on with life - business as usual - as it appears that the major damage was already done when he came to the party.

If shareholders do not approve this "opportunity", then they will be looking at oblivion.

Some may prefer oblivion to GH of course - everybody has their prerogative.

[Toddy]

Anyone interested, just log onto http://www.feltex.com/feltex_corporate/index.asp

Management positions available. Good packages, base salary based on market, health care, car, life insurance, bonuses, travel.

Making a career change means you want to make sure Feltex is the right company for you.

If you are looking for a challenging company that is result-focused and action-orientated, then
you should make the right move and join the Feltex team.

If you are interested in joining a winning team, you should send a cover letter clearly
indicating your preference of role and location, as well as a CV or resume.

[lanenz]

quote:Originally posted by gregoroius

Are you holding some L??

This whole mess was a stitch-up from the start and good generally older folk got sucked in by the Floggers-off of this Peaking Pup.

The NZX and promoting brokers should be flogged for this mess.

I am luckily only a "single day" trader of this three legged, one eyed, mangey mutt.

G.
I have to say its a big fat no. Never held never intended. In case you didnt understand my last post is i said i will not be attending the meeting through lack of interest (this meant that i do not hold any feltex shares and never have). On a personal note i wish i could afford the brokerage to buy 1 share to be at the meeting.

I never took an interest in this company until the saga became more evident last year. Prior to that i had almost no knowledge. Since then it became obvious to me that things werent quite as they seem. Missed deadlines for their financial and bad news followed by bad. It was clear that there was never going to be a turn around story. also GH took a sacrifice bunt when they sold their holding a few months ago for around 37 cps. That was a huge signal that this co is in trouble.

The best time to judge a company is when you have no financial interest. When you do hold a stock most (including myself) have been guilty of justifying why a certain stock has value. That can be a dangerous tonic especially when people are chasing to break even (averaging down).

Greg. fyi i brought neo at 4.1, and havent brought any additional shares since the slide. i.e down about 60% on that one
Disl. nzo nzood skc neo moo. I have sold 75% of my portfolio in the last 12 months.

[Krustytheclown]

Thanks for your background Lanenz.

Only silver fleck here is that the jobs maybe saved - but the Godfrey banner may well fly over the buildings.

A proper investigation of what went DOWN at FTX (and what lies were seemingly told at times) from the IPO onwards is needed here.....but as we know interest is lessened when you dont hold.

G.

[Pennywise]

Didn't Belgarion talk his "RICH MATES" into following this dog down the "slipperly slope"...lucky they are rich eh Belg, but are they still your mates?[:p]

oh that's right, the slippery slope or averaging down is now called a genius upsidedown planned pyramid....so you can always fob them off with that, or simply adjust the "spreadsheet"

an 8th wonder of the world...looks like it wasn't engineered so well...too much weight on the tip possibly?

Someone asked what the minimum will be if the max is 12c...

well they started with 60c, wasted another 80% of value so based on those business skills

lets say 2.4c:D

well done FTX management
you ALL get the prize for most useless directors of 2006.

Name and Shame, clowns[:o)]

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Does anyone recommend this as a buy?. I'm looking at buying a cheap share and then turning it into a 5 or 10 bagger real quick.


This is a definite 20-bagger. No doubts about it. Just ask Sniper at FNZC - it was a screaming buy at $1.70. So it's even more of a buy now. Sniper is a pure genius, and we're just mere mortals.

[redzone]

and the NZX let this pig trade yesterday after more hype....someone should go down over this/....looking at a 8 CENT OPENING

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by warthog

TS will get on with life - business as usual - as it appears that the major damage was already done when he came to the party.

.


Tim (and Peter) has been part of the FTX team for years ... they even got a bonus for 'assisting' the successful float

[Snow Leopard]

It will be interesting to watch what actually unfolds in the coming months in the next episode of the Feltex Saga. Will there be anymore plot twists?
However, I am sure that this thread has a few pages left in it. :D

[winner69]

From earlier in this thread this is what people got as a bonus for 'assisting' the float

If gaynors sums are right pretty astounding what these characters got to make the IPO a huge success. From gaynors column

Tim Saunders (chairman) $1.7 million

- Sam Magill (CEO) $8.4 million

- Michael Feeney $0.75 million

- Craig Horrocks $0.88 million

- David Hunter $0.75 million

- Peter Thomas $1.78 million.

[Snow Leopard]

Press today:

NBR (http://nbr.co.nz/home/column_article.asp?id=15818&cid=8&cname=News)

Herald (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10394093)

Stuff (http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3751055a13,00.html)

[sniper]

Feltex fed BS to the market and the media took up the cause of rebutting BS and wrote about what was really happening behind the scenes at this dysfunctional company. An article about FTX using dodgy accounting (a clear warning sign of something wrong) was decried as a media beat-up. Those who took notice sold their shares at above 20 cents.

I love it when losers blame everyone else but themselves when they ignore warnings and lose money. Shows their real characters.

BTW, it is reliably believed that a group of carpet retailers put a proposal to run Feltex for ANZ Bank. Is this the other party that Inder was referring to? Or was it Belgarion all along?

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion
I want to see the books ... Im sick of Sniper's "one-eyed" accounting that is largely based on out-of-date info that isn't showing the effects of management's re-structuring ...

Don't sell holders ... Wait for the audited books!

FTX management - you suck - Show us the books before you show us the GH offer!


Geez Belg ... I thought you had done your homework

Get the accounts for the last 5-6 years (inc pre IPO) and do a decent analysis of where all the cash they generate goes.

In spite of regular restructuring / closing plants / buying new eqiupment to improve 'efficiencies' / improving the sales force / introducing new ranges etc etc etc Feltex have never made a go of it ..... the business model is stuffed

So what will the latest restructure do ... fundamnetally nothing .... just a cost saving measure at face value ... that impacts on other parts of the business

No doubt if this goes ahead Hirst will integrate a lot of better practices into the business .... streamline production and all that sort of stuff .... and probably make heaps from having a far bigger business.

In spite of what Jolly says if Feltex wanted a future in its own right it to morph into a 'sales and marketing' company .... ie take its only real asset in the Feltex brand ..... outsource the manufacturing to cheaper parts of the world ..... and drive the brand hard.


But that won't happen now .... good luck Hirst .... and I still wouldn't want to be a Feltex employee (unless I am Peter and waiting for the big payout)

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion


And the deal is so sweet for GH that one wonders just what these people are getting out of it ...

[/quote]

And you might re-interpret Chairman Tims views in Decemeber when coming ot a decision.

He said: "The proposals from Godfrey Hirst were considered by the Feltex Board to be inadequate and not in the financial interests of Feltex’s shareholders other than Godfrey Hirst. In relation to the opportunity where other outside proposals were received, Godfrey Hirst’s proposal was demonstrably uncompetitive when compared with all other proposals.

Feltex has therefore advised Godfrey Hirst that, given their response to these proposals, it would appear that it is highly improbable we can identify areas where the operations of the two Companies can be rationalised on terms and conditions fair and reasonable to all Feltex shareholders, other than Godfrey Hirst.

Accordingly, rationalisation discussions between Feltex and Godfrey Hirst have been terminated. It is the Board’s view that ending these discussions is in the best interests of the Company and its shareholders."

And how have they go from $113 to $128m in debt in 7 months?

[bushbasher]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

"Cash-flow positive" and no attempt at a rights issue?

Not selling anything until I see the audited books for the last 12 months!

Two classic errors here -
1) It is clear that management had their backs against the ANZ wall and didn't even have the luxury of considering a rights issue.
2) What are historic accounts ever going to tell you, audited or not. All that matters is how this pup trades from here on in.

I personally think that this is potentially a great deal for GH and they certainly hold the cards. But there is no obligation on them to make a sweeter deal for existing Feltex shareholders, who unless they were blind should have seen this coming for a long time. Everybody else did.

[winner69]

Hirst doing due diligence

Hirst guy says " ...you say inventories worth $70M ..... but hell .... a lot of it is pretty old .... aren't those pattern obsolete now .... and does it actually exist .... especially that stuff you have on 'consignment' in customers stores ..... need to discount that $70M i'm afraid"

So $15M comes of the stock valuation .... one of those working capital adjustments .... and isn't $15M worth 10 cents a share .... BUGGER

[sniper]

Still in denial, Belgarion.

Just like your infamous :

"Just an observation ... pundits are quoting the "6 times earning" valuation ... Just where did the "6" come from? Becuase it nicely fits makes FTX look valueless? Why not 7 times? Or 8 times? What's CAV on? (DB has CAV at 14 times!) Goodfrey Hirst? If the "6" is too low ... whats FTX really worth?"

This company is broke - it cannot repay its bank debt. That's the long and short of it. Savvy? ;)

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

It is up to the shareholders now.


With respect, the warthog disagrees - effectively, it is up to the ANZ and GH.

The shareholders can't run FTX - as much as some would like to believe.

If the shareholders do not approve this deal, the ANZ will pull the plug.

[DCski13]

quote:Originally posted by Fodder


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

"the Slough Office of Wernham Hogg"

that reminds me

Watch Extras on Prime at 9:30pm tonight


Cheers PT I had forgotten this was on tonight...loved the opening episode last week...I knew there was a good reason for me to be reading this thread after all...kind of like reading the death notices in the newspaper.


Well, I watched Extras too and inbetween surfing to my favour law show, Boston Legal... have I missed the point here. What was the connection between Extras and FTX!?! [?] :D [?]

[etnom]

From the "National Business Review"

------------------------------------------------

Feltex investors will be lucky to get any money for their shares from a proposed sale to rival carpet manufacturer Godfrey Hirst.

Feltex chief executive Peter Thomas conceded shareholders, some of whom paid up to $1.70 for each share less than two years ago, could potentially get 0c a share once the variables of the deal were taken into account.

In a statement Feltex said Godfrey Hirst was offering a $141.8 million rescue package, and bankers had agreed to a share payment of up to 12c a share provided certain conditions were met.

Mr Thomas, who looked clearly rattled and uncomfortable on a live video conference call to media this evening, said the final amount shareholders would receive depended on a number of factors, including working capital adjustments, Feltex's trading cash flow until settlement with Godfrey Hirst, prevailing exchange rates and the interest bearing debt level at settlement.
"Potentially it could be zero."

Mr Thomas would cease to hold his position if the proposal goes ahead.
Asked how much he personally made from the IPO in 2004, Mr Thomas said he did not know how to answer that but he owned less than 1% of Credit Suisse First Boston Asian Merchant Partners, which floated Feltex reaping about $200 million in the process.

Chairman Tim Saunders said the board had yet to discus severance terms.
"[But] It is unlikely to be a significant amount."

Feltex is carrying about $128 million of debt, much of it owed to the ANZ Bank.
The proposal, which will be "reviewed by an independent expert" requires the approval of 75% of shareholder votes. It is expected a special meeting will be called in September for shareholders to vote on the proposal.

The acquisition also requires regulatory approvals by the ACCC, NZ Commerce Commission, the Consumer Commission and the Overseas Investment Office.

Feltex chief financial officer Des Tolan said the combined entity would have a market share in carpet in Australasia of 50- 55 per cent.
Feltex chairman Tim Saunders said there were no other offers on the table and the company had run out of time.

He was extremely disappointed for shareholders.

"However the board believed Feltex's debt levels are too high and, in the absence of alternatives, it should put the Godfrey Hirst proposal to shareholders."

Godfrey Hirst will be entitled to a break fee of $1 million if the transaction does not close because Feltex accepts an alternative proposal, or a fee of $750,000 if Feltex shareholders do not vote to accept the proposal and Godfrey Hirst is willing to complete.

The proposal is also subject to the completion of due diligence by Godfrey Hirst.

-------------------------------------------

[Westie]

quote:If the shareholders do not approve this deal, the ANZ will pull the plug

Not so sure. The lawyers & receivers win in a receivership. If you were owed over 100m in debt would you take a guaranteed loss of a substantial proportion by calling in receivers or would you keep the life support going to try and find a buyer to repay the entire debt (or convert to equity, but i'm not sure a bank wants to own a carpet manufacturer, not their line of biz)?

That said, GH is in the best position to realize synergies from FXT so they are the buyers most likely to pay the highest price.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Westie


quote:If the shareholders do not approve this deal, the ANZ will pull the plug

Not so sure. The lawyers & receivers win in a receivership. If you were owed over 100m in debt would you take a guaranteed loss of a substantial proportion by calling in receivers or would you keep the life support going to try and find a buyer to repay the entire debt (or convert to equity, but i'm not sure a bank wants to own a carpet manufacturer, not their line of biz)?


Nice thought. But that is not going to happen.

With significant debt "at risk", the ANZ were not prepared to let FTX trade their way to a better position so what makes you think that they are interested in running the business?


quote:
That said, GH is in the best position to realize synergies from FXT so they are the buyers most likely to pay the highest price.


Correct, and GH are the only buyers in the frame. ANZ doesn't want to precipitate the "are" becoming a "were".

[kura]

A few brave souls buying at 8.5 this morning, anyone here ?

[bushbasher]

Ooch! Trading at 8.5c Seems to be plenty of buyers up to 8c though. Belg's averaging down some more?

[toffee]

Complete newby to this. So I take it that I can't wade in this morning with the sp at reduced levels and then take the 12c offer down the track?

Laugh at me if you must!!

toffee

[Noodle]

quote:Originally posted by toffee

Complete newby to this. So I take it that I can't wade in this morning with the sp at reduced levels and then take the 12c offer down the track?

Laugh at me if you must!!

toffee


Of course you can wade into FTX if you wish and take the 12c later.
Just be very careful with this company, what they say or promise is quite often the opposite.

A very strong word of warning....12c is not promised and will be the maximum you would get for your share.
It is quite possible that you could get NOTHING!!

If you wish to speculate on this one, go for it, and good luck!

[barney]

Brian Gaynor was on TVNZ'S business program this morning.He made the comment that there was a lot of mystery surrounding who were the shareholders of the CSFB private equity firm that floated Feltex.There was a sugestion that some of the existing directors of Feltex were shareholders or major shareholders in the CSFB firm.I wonder if the whole story will ever see the light of day.

[toffee]

Thanks. My steel balls are already tarnished, so will stay clear. Don't want to see blood on the carpet!! :D

[kura]

Quite correct Noodle, Toffee should read NBR article carefully (at top of page) before parting with hard earned readies.

Given the risk, I thought 8...9 cents was quite high (expected to trade lower)

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by toffee



Laugh at me if you must!!

toffee


You will find most people will try to be helpfull, the only ones who get laughed at, are those that "know it all"

[toffee]

Yes, the opening statement sums it up I guess!

[Noodle]

Looks like a trading halt again...but I havent seen any news yet.

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

some interesting points W69 ... a couple of counter arguements ...

re ... Outsourcing to cheap manufacturing bases ... Germans and Japanese retain strong manufacturing bases. Why? What the cost of shipping carpet halfway around the work? Is it economic?

re ... No sales force ... Hmm ... and yet FTX say they have full order books ... perhaps it's the industry model that is wrong and FTX, by letting customers come to them and keeping margins light, are getting it right? It wouldn't be the first time that an imperiled company has re-written the rule book ... (I had an insurance company in the UK like this ... nice end result too).

As FTX management are communicating little of substance but plenty of innuendo ...

Open books please !!!


What for? You cannot tell EBITDA from NPAT, Enterprise multiple from PER as valuation methods.

Be a bit like you going to the supermarket, buying a can of tuna withot reading the label, finding out that it's actually a can of worms and then, demanding that the can be opened so that you can be sure it's not a can of worms. ;)

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion


quote:Originally posted by sniper


This company is broke - it cannot repay its bank debt. That's the long and short of it. Savvy? ;)


Abd yet the company can service its debt and still remain "cashflow positive."

Your definition of "broke" doesn't quite agree with mine ...

... I want to see the books! Don't sell until you've seen them!


Belg .... Tim has been reported "Tim Saunders said the board was faced with a choice of accepting the Hirst offer or putting the company into receivership because of its inability to service debt.

That seems to suggest broke to me

[Pennywise]

oh dear, it has come down to begging:(

Belgarion, grow up and have another little go at understanding the big picture.

You haven't got a show in hell

as many have said, ANZ are in the driving seat with their abundance of clauses to safeguard their $128m.

Do you really believe anything will come of 'you' reading the current books? get real mate, you are a minnow crying out for justice again.

BTW...how are the "rich mates"?

[Pennywise]

Sniper said..."Be a bit like you going to the supermarket, buying a can of tuna withot reading the label, finding out that it's actually a can of worms and then, demanding that the can be opened so that you can be sure it's not a can of worms." ;)



oh you are a naughty boy Sniper[:0]

[Pennywise]

Here is the real deal...

1.Feltex chief executive Peter Thomas conceded shareholders, some of whom paid up to $1.70 for each share less than two years ago, could potentially get 0c a share once the variables of the deal were taken into account.

So somewhere between 0c and 12c and people are still paying 8c even with FTX track record of BS.

2.Chairman Tim Saunders said the board had yet to discus severance terms."[But] It is unlikely to be a significant amount."

Shareholders MAY get ZERO, but these guys will still walk with some

3.a fee of $750,000 if Feltex shareholders do not vote to accept the proposal.

If you choose not to support it, GH will take another 6%!! of current market cap for ZERO

4."However the board believed Feltex's debt levels are too high and, in the absence of alternatives, it should put the Godfrey Hirst proposal to shareholders."

"in the ABSENCE of ALTERNATIVES" meaning BANK won't wait any longer.

5.Tim has been reported "Tim Saunders said the board was faced with a choice of accepting the Hirst offer or putting the company into receivership because of its inability to service debt.

He means being [u]forced</u> by ANZ to put it into receivership


and still he trashes around trying to save the 8th wonder of the world that never was.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Nor do I see "and we've borrowed more"


That is right - and FTX would have to go significantly beyond this to safeguard the arrangement with the ANZ.

Which is why it wouldn't work. Don't forget, your exposure is - the warthog assumes - less than $150k, not far off 1/1000th the ANZ's exposure.

This explains why you are more positive about a non-GH solution than the ANZ is.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion
[
Anyone know who GH's bankers are ... ??? [}:)]


Belg .... don't be a tease .... you know full well

[sniper]

[quote]Originally posted by belgarion

An interesting counter view ... [}:)]

1:1 rights at 50 cents gives you $75 million in cash and you own FTX for 58 cents a share - nice !!! I can see where the carpet retailers are coming from ... Crumbs ... if the carpet retailers get FTX then GH have a tough competitor at their doorstep! [8D]

No wonder GH are in a hurry :D:D:D

/quote]

Desparation makes people do silly things - like believing that retailers will actually front up to own a manufacturing and distribution operation. That integrated model went out with the dodo. name one company still pursuing this model.

Face it, Belgarion - you cannot tell the difference between EBITDA and NPAT so perhaps you should have never attempted to even read financials.

Just remember especially with Feltex that :

EBITDA = Earnings Before I Totally Duped (the) Auditor.
EBIT = Earnings Before I Tanked.
NPBT = No Profit But Trust (Consultus & BOD).
NPAT = Nonsense Profit After Trusting (Consultus & BOD).

Now open the last few sets of FRX financials and apply the above. It will all then make sense.

Good boy. ;)

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

It's not for me to enquire. I have no personal interest in persecuting Sniper or FNZC. But those who have lost a lot of money might wish to make a complaint? Or maybe those who see themselves as leading lights of business or champions of the minority shareholder's rights might wish to give Ms Rebstock a call. Apparently she's quite approachable and really very nice when she isn't breathing fire.


It was clear when Saunders got the top job at FTX that his background was with FTX pre-IPO. That is why, the warthog imagines, people were glad to see him there - i.e. there was a belief (a hope) on behalf of some that he could orchestrate a similar turnaround to the last one. At no time has Saunders sought to confuse the details of his previous involvement.

Sniper - it would appear - has had it in for FTX all along. He or she appears to fulfill some need or other by mocking people (Belgarion mainly). Whatever. But make no mistake - if Sniper were in a position to benefit in an illegitimately from inside knowledge, then he/she has gone about it in a very public way.

Before anybody is going to investigate anything, you need to establish that there is a case to answer, and then find some way of financing the investigation. Hint: if the law has been broken, we will all pay. Otherwise, who is going to step up? Not you, obviously - you've counted yourself out.

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion


quote:Originally posted by sniper


This company is broke - it cannot repay its bank debt. That's the long and short of it. Savvy? ;)


Abd yet the company can service its debt and still remain "cashflow positive."

Your definition of "broke" doesn't quite agree with mine ...

... I want to see the books! Don't sell until you've seen them!

If the pleading "dont sell" wasn't so pathetic it would be funny.
I consider your dont sell comment to be akin to shameless ramping.
As many people have lost money on this i shall take a more charitable view and consider it to be one or all of the following scenarios;
1. Dont sell.... I dont want to go down on my own
2. Dont sell.... Mummy
3. Dont sell.... till i have sold mine
4. Dont sell.... I will wake up in the morning and be back in kansas and my feltex stock will be worth a dollar per share.

[morpork]

Please stop questioning the mans integrity

He'll reincarnate and we'll have to find him again

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by morpork

Please stop questioning the mans integrity

He'll reincarnate and we'll have to find him again

no chance he has spent to long post building to give it all up

[sniper]

Feltex chairman Tim Saunders said the board was faced with a choice of accepting the Hirst offer or putting the company into receivership because of its inability to service debt.

Try reconciling that with 'cashflow positive.'

Forked tongues at work again - you can be cashflow positive if you generate EBITDA of $1 (yes, one dollar) but you cannot pay interest of $1m per month.

Savvy?

No wonder Warren Buffett calls EBITDA con-numbers used by companies in trouble to hoodwink investors.



Feltex shareholders have time to decide
02 August 2006

Feltex Carpets shareholders have bought a couple of months before they must decide whether to accept the takeover offer from Australian rival Godfrey Hirst Carpets, according to the Shareholders' Association.


Godfrey Hirst yesterday offered a $141.8 million rescue package to buy a company which breached bank covenants in June, owing about $129 million.

That meant Feltex shareholders would get 12 cents a share at best, compared with the $1.70 per share issue price in June 2004.

Feltex shares, which were suspended from trading yesterday, lost a third of their price when the sharemarket opened today, falling 4.4c to 8.6c.

Feltex chairman Tim Saunders said the board was faced with a choice of accepting the Hirst offer or putting the company into receivership because of its inability to service debt.

Shareholders would vote on it at a meeting in September - three quarters had to vote for the deal for it to proceed.

However, Shareholders' Association chairman Bruce Sheppard told National Radio today the company's position could change between now and the scheduled meeting.

AdvertisementAdvertisement"A fair bit of water can pass under the bridge between now and September and if the business's prospects improve and the shareholders vote 'no', they have just bought another couple of months to do a deal with the bank."

Feltex's bank, ANZ, was unlikely to call in the receivers before the meeting, Mr Sheppard said.

One worker at Feltex's Riccarton plant in Christchurch said that plant's order book was in its best shape for several years.

Mr Sheppard said Hirst "must be gobsmacked at the astounding stupidity of the Feltex board", given they rejected an offer from Hirst in February reported to be at around 55 to 60 cents per share.

He said there was limited power to take action against the board for mismanagement as long as they had followed correct processes.

However, the association had complained to the Securities Commission about the Feltex prospectus at the Initial Public Offering, where a vendor controlled board was incentivised to maximise the price.

"Paying someone to produce a document to maximise the price creates a moral hazard."

Mr Sheppard said the fact that the commission had not replied was encouraging because if it does not intend investigating, it tends to reply quickly.

"The silence from the Securities Commission possibly implies they are investigating."

Managing director of ASB Securities, Tim Preston, said serious questions had to be asked why the earlier Hirst proposal was not accepted.

The latest proposal, if accepted, gave shareholders no opportunity to recovery their capital even if the company recovered its profitability, he said.

Mr Saunders said the Hirst offer could mean shareholders only receive 9 cents per share once Hirst had fully examined the company's finances.

"All of us who are shareholders are feeling very disappointed... Many will be upset to have seen their original investment reduced by so much.

"We do believe in the current circumstances that the proposal currently before us is the best option for our shareholders."

He said he was pleased the Feltex brand would be preserved and the plants would continue to work normally.

A successful takeover would create the largest carpet maker in Australasia with

[Krustytheclown]

Poooooorrrr Belgs!!!!!!!!!!!!

He is having his Arrssee fair booted all around our Sharetrader playing field.....;)

He wont sit down for a week[:0]!

A will do my part as a concerned citizen and pass around the hat for a real big DONUT RING SEAT CUSHION[^].

Here to help Belgs:(....in his darkest:( days.

Dont do anything silly Belgs.....like venting out on the Posty Tommorrow morning. Give this loss time big boy.


G.

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by morpork

Please stop questioning the mans integrity

He'll reincarnate and we'll have to find him again


Gee guys, sure we have all had a bit of a laugh at Belg's obvious expense, but isn't it time to get over it ? and just look forward instead ? Yep, I confess to "bad mouthing" him some time back, when he seemed to encourage others to back his FTX theories, but the time for gloating should really be over by now.

[Toddy]

Another trophy for Sniper's trophy Cabinet. Albeit only a small one for FTX.

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by kura


quote:Originally posted by morpork

Please stop questioning the mans integrity

He'll reincarnate and we'll have to find him again


Gee guys, sure we have all had a bit of a laugh at Belg's obvious expense, but isn't it time to get over it ? and just look forward instead ? Yep, I confess to "bad mouthing" him some time back, when he seemed to encourage others to back his FTX theories, but the time for gloating should really be over by now.


that seemed word is a very christian view of the blowhards blatant ramping kura

[warthog]

This old warthog can't help but musing that there is a Darwinian aspect to the whole affair, only time and time again, the same people allow themselves to be convinced and tricked by carefully-scripted stage-shows. I guess empty pockets will - ultimately - put an end to that.

[sniper]

You are making a king-size fool of yourself, Belgarion.

Fancy regurgitating everything now that we have been trying to tell you about Feltex as if it's all new to you.

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

Sniper? Just too clever by half. Can see his game plan a mile off. Dressing it up as "advice". Wasn't saying that at float time though.


To think that Sniper's broker employer allows him to post hundreds of messages to a website ramping/bagging certain shares is astonishing, particularly given potential conflicts in interest. Their IT/security policy must be really really lax.

[Pennywise]

What? you want me to fund your stock market decisions

NO WAY BUDDY, you were fuelled to the eyeballs with cocky greed and EGO.

How about an enquiry into how many sheep followed your BS into this stock for the last year.


Talk about a sorry hypocrite.

Govt enquiry, my ass. Maybe the NZX, sure.

The best thing you can do Jeremy (Belg) for therapy is to re-read the last year of your posts on FTX and put a sock in it.

You may learn something much more valuable than looking outside for blame.

[Pennywise]

Jolly- whatever!

who knows what you are on about???[:o)]

you are losing it with your latest paranoid posts

[Pennywise]

You can see poor Belgarion going through the whole cycle here can't you...

Anticipation---&gt;Disappointment---&gt;Hope---&gt;Dispair---&gt;Anger---&gt;now Blame;)

opps...there goes the "Denile" already

[kura]

Good to see you are still posting Belg, yep, I had relatives that bought into IPO, I tried to talk them into selling as soon as they told me what they did, but they were determined to hold on untill share price recovered to IPO price, same strategy as lots of Mum and Dad investors, (only loose if you sell at a loss, just wait for price to recover, then sell, type thinking) but as Warthog and many others have explained, the original prospectus would have been carefully couched in legalistic terms, so that it was basically "buyer beware"

Yes, you are correct to have a go at management, but unfortunately incompetence is not a crime, nor does it automatically give justification for a civil action. (You really need to prove deliberate intent to deceive)

Trading while insolvent, is a bit more problematic, but my first reaction is to say there is no evidence of this to date, why do I say this ? simply if the company were trading while insolvent, then shareholders would definitely be getting nothing, if shareholders get anything, then by definition the company can't be insolvent.

In all honesty, I thought FTX would have been able to have recovered, I never expected things to get this bad, my personal strategy was to buy in during the "rights trading" period, but unfortunately once share price got below 20 cents, it was obvious to me that no one would underwrite a rights issue, making it a "non starter" in anyones eyes.

I think you had the right idea, but I also think you jumped in too early, (which I am also guilty of doing, with other shares) and kind of wonder if some of your previous positive posts, were intended to reassure yourself, as much as anyone else ?

As an aside, I just avoid any IPO that has had the private equity makeover, not only do they tend to sell at top of cycle, they also do sneaky things, like defering capital expenditure, that is beneficial to long term prospects, but makes "numbers" look better in short term (ie Also avoided Repco float)

Disc: Your loss on FTX ($100K) equates to my total trading capital, so feel free to laugh at my insignificance.

[Pennywise]

"LOL ... the simple facts of the FTX float and everything made public since reaks to high heaven ... I've seen scams ... plenty of them ... but this one is so blatant that it's brings the integrety of the whole NZ sharemarket, NZ broking industry and banking industry into question" ...


:D:D:D oh Ive seen scams, oh yes. so blatant since the IPO that I sunk $100K + into it the whole way...

oh yes, it was all so obvious to me........................now;)

[Krustytheclown]

Kura.....

Your statement about not touching anything/IPO thats just had the Private Equity "Dead/Dying Body" post-formaldahyde makeover should be EMBLAZENED ON EVERY PAPERS FRONT PAGE!

G.

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Im could be down 100K and all you guys can do is gloat?

You're scum!

Why not talk about the reasons why hundreds of mums and dads who can afford the hit less than me are being butt-f!cked ....

While you gloat at my loss ... You're gloating at their loss too ... I didn't buy at 1.70 ... Your gloating will hurt them considerably more than it hurts me.

Scum ... :(

BTW - If those gloating at my loss are hiding their own losses by not admitting that they bought FTX at 1.70 ... they are doubly scum ;)



arh $100k, water off a ducks back;)

just tell the wifey now Belg, nothing new there Jeremy

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by Pennywise


just tell the wifey now Belg, nothing new there Jeremy


No time to tell the wife, at the moment he's furiously working overtime to recoup the losses:D

[Toddy]

Belgarian

I never like to see people lose money. I totally agree that you have made a judgement that did not come off this time. But you knew the risks so you can live with your wrong decision.

However, the mums and dads do not understand the risks and rely on the industry for professional advice. The mums and dads are the real losers and given that there has been no fraud, will want to understand how a company can be floated and then go bust overnight.

The management have not explained this and the question is 'who will'. The answer is nobody unless there is an investigation.

I am saddened by the entire event and do not understand the motives of others who enjoy seeing failure, especially when there are no winners.

[Krustytheclown]

Hi Toddy,

Why have I poked the borax at Belg?.....because of wanton and absolute gloating at a "master plan he had to certainly ride the crest" of a recovering Feltex......and sadly by extollation encouraging others to do the same.

This is ultimately leading all to the black plughole.

Mums and Dads in at 1.70 is a very sad event and I do feel their pain and cash loss.

I will now cut the Belge windup (from me atliest) as I cannot kick a dog when he is down - and he is now contrite and down. I do see Belg in pain here and I will leave him to survive and lick his wounds.

I wish Belg well on his next foray.....and I do hope he can recoup.
All jokes aside Belge....I hope this does not cause too much pain.

G.

[barney]

I agree with you Belg re the mum and dad investors.My first foray into the sharemarket was in 1987 and fortunatly at that time I only had a small amount of money to loose.But the losses sustained by the mum and dad investors at the time were huge and the fallout longlasting.In fact it has taken a whole generation to rid the market of the affects of 1987.
After several years of sustained growth in the NZ economy and efforts from the NZX and the industry in general the "mum and dad" investors have recently been persuaded back into the NZ sharemarket.Then along comes the Feltex debacle.A lot of mums and dad investors bought into this company on the basis of broker/investment advisors recommendations.It was not touted as a high risk investment/risk taking company but as an older stable type company with a long established name and brands.
Now many of those people had lost their money and will never re-enter the sharemarket.In one foul swoop Feltex have managed to reinforce to these people that investing in shares is a con and a ripoff.The market as a whole is worse off.

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Im could be down 100K and all you guys can do is gloat?

You're scum!

Why not talk about the reasons why hundreds of mums and dads who can afford the hit less than me are being butt-f!cked ....

While you gloat at my loss ... You're gloating at their loss too ... I didn't buy at 1.70 ... Your gloating will hurt them considerably more than it hurts me.

Scum ... :(

BTW - If those gloating at my loss are hiding their own losses by not admitting that they bought FTX at 1.70 ... they are doubly scum ;)


Sorry Belg, but I think you are loosing the plot now, (people commonly become irrational when faced with bad news)

I simply buy and sell shares to avoid the necessity of working for a living, nothing more, nothing less. Do I have sympathy for the people I bought shares off, that I subsequently sold at a profit ? "no" Would vendors give me my money back if the shares I purchased turned out to be a failure? "no"

Trouble is, that you now suddenly have a heartfelt concern for all those Mums and Dads that have lost money through this debacle, whereas only a month or so back, you were laughing at them, as being ripe for the plucking, (which ain't all that sympathetic really).

As to your comment about being but f!cked, why dont just broadcast your address, and let everyone else shaft you, as you have been well and truly shafted by FTX.

Sorry Belg, I didn't intend to have a go at you, but your last reply just invited a response, and you have made constructive comments on other threads.

[bushbasher]

A little glimmer in the dark for suffering FTX shareholders? Searching for other "well-healed" investors to assist...anybody at ST fit the bill?
---------------------
Sleepyhead pair step in with bid to rescue Feltex

Thursday August 3, 2006
By Richard Inder


Two wealthy Auckland brothers are trying to put together a rescue plan for carpet-maker Feltex, rivalling a $141.8 million offer from Australia's Godfrey Hirst.

Graeme and Craig Turner - part of the dynasty behind the Sleepyhead bedding group - want to underwrite a third of a rescue rights issue for the business and keep it listed on the NZX.

They want other well-heeled investors to put up similar sums, and are talking to several institutions and other advisers.

They say Feltex needs between $35 million and $40 million to put it back on an even keel.

Craig Turner said he hated to see a famous New Zealand brand go overseas.

"What has happened to existing shareholders is awful," he said.

Feltex, which has struggled to recover from a sharp downturn at the start of last year, admitted failure on Tuesday when it agreed to sell itself to rival Godfrey Hirst and return the proceeds to shareholders.

Feltex chairman Tim Saunders said that under the Godfrey Hirst proposal, shareholders would get between 9c and 12c a share in two instalments - the first, of up to 9c, after settlement in October, and up to another 3c next year when certain warranties expired.

Feltex shares were floated at $1.70 in 2004, so the deal would give shareholders a loss of up to $240 million.

The shares closed last night down 4.1c at 8.9c.

The Turner brothers, who share a $70 million family fortune, according to the NBR Rich List, want Feltex to issue preference shares.

They would have the same rights as existing shares but would have prior ranking in a wind-up.

The issue would give existing investors the opportunity to enjoy any Feltex recovery.

The exact terms of the issue are to be determined and it requires the continued support of Feltex's bank, ANZ, which is owed $128 million.

Sleepyhead also uses ANZ as its bank.

"We are talking with ANZ. We have been with them for 40 years, they understand our business and what we can bring to the table," Turner said. But the brothers recognised they had to deliver shareholders a return greater than the 9c to 12c expected under the Godfrey Hirst proposal.

"[Godfrey Hirst's] value is terminal, our value is growth for the future."

The brothers say Feltex may be at the bottom of a trough, but it will benefit from practices employed at Sleepyhead.

"At Sleepyhead, we are a marketing business," Turner said.

"My estimate of this business is that it is a manufacturing business with a marketing business tacked on."

Sleepyhead was complementary to Feltex. It distributed carpet underlay, and many retailers who sold beds also sold carpets.

The Feltex board has yet to agree to let the Turners look over its books and operations. But it said on Tuesday it was free to consider any other offer until shareholders voted on the Godfrey Hirst proposal in September.

Godfrey Hirst gets a $1 million break fee if Feltex accepts an alternative proposal.

Feltex said last night it had no other proposal on the table but "should we receive one, we'd be obliged to look at it".

An important element of the manoeuvring for Feltex will be the response from Godfrey Hirst to the new offer.

It declined to comment last night, but it can perhaps afford to pay more because it can make big cost savings from merging Feltex's operation with its own.

Together, Feltex and Godfrey Hirst would be one of the largest transtasman carpet groups, with $750 million of sales, half the wool and synthetic carpets market in Australia and half the wool carpet market in New Zealand.

Godfrey Hirst finance director Jim Walsh said on Tuesday his company's offer was fair in light of Feltex's record of not delivering on its promises.

[lanenz]

Some light? This could also force GH to revise its offer.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by D_Pick

Await news of the next potential investor and terms with interest......and the preliminary full year financial results

Via this latest announcement the board & management have clearly signalled that they feel the company has options. Especially if they are willing to turn away a potential investor if the terms aren't right.




Didn't quite turn out this way did it ... there were no other options

Whats your view as to what has happened D_Pick

[winner69]

Wasn't that original Hirst offer about a merger .... FTX taking over Hirst

Even though FTX interests would have been diluted they would have least shared in the future of the biggest carpet maker in Australia

Well done Tim ... you surely had shareholders interests at heart

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

I think people are missing the point here ... its not really an NZX matter.

Thus a re-capitalisation is simply transferring 'ownership' from the bank to the new holders. We'll supply equity to reduce debt ... Thank you very much. :)


Lost money (and ego) so he now wants the NZX to get involved.

Oh dear ... emperor's new clothes?

[sniper]

'Patriotism is the final refuge of the ultimate scoundrel.'Abe Lincoln.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by sniper

Comes down to this - who should investors and punters on this site have listened to?


The warthog thinks it comes down to this question too, and would venture "nobody" as the right answer. ;)

[bushbasher]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly


If they vote against, it is lose lose. The idea of putting FTX in to insolvency is another lose lose. The banks don't want to lose.

If the resolution fails, the bank has no option but to strike a deal the same way they did with BPH.

If the resolution fails the bank takes over and will sell to GH anyway. This deal just allows the veneer of the board having control and saving some face (but virtually none) with shareholders. Shareholders only chance is a credible alternative bid. The break fee is not that high under the circumstances and the board would be foolish not to consider other bids right up to the shareholder vote.