Feltex (FTX) - All over for shareholders

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by sniper

Comes down to this - who should investors and punters on this site have listened to?


The warthog thinks it comes down to this question too, and would venture "nobody" as the right answer. ;)

Warthog, I am inclined to agree with you. Investors should have a system in place that saves them from letting the bad decision become a disaster. Punters know the odds, and deserve their wins and losses.
The mum and dad types should stick to what they understand. It is obvious to me that all manufacturing companies in NZ are very risky investments i wouldnt touch any of them. It is also obvious that fundamental analysis is useless unless you really are told the real story. I dont feel sorry for anyone caught out, we all deserve what we get with wins and losses. macdunk

[beacon]

I second that Bongo. I didn't play much here, so didn't lose much. But we need responsible companies, sincere directors and a more watchful exchange. This saga is an embarrassment really.

[Tyke]

quote:Originally posted by sniper


'Patriotism is the final refuge of the ultimate scoundrel.'Abe Lincoln.





The quotation is "Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel" and it was Samuel Johnson not Abe Lincoln

[hesiod]

Anyone thought about statutory administration ? I know its a little extreme but given the amount of wealth already destroyed, and the biggest loser from such a deal being the bank I don't see an issue. Workers wont be any worse off in my view, neither will the shareholders. Could they really do any worse than Saunders and co ? Given the likely return to shareholders has to be nothing, nada , zilch. ANd the next GH move will be to shut down most of the NZ manufacturing and market the Feltex brand.

DISC escaped this dog ...

[winner69]

Plenty of action today ..... belg/jolly right on the button? ..... that was only the first round the other day

[Enumerate]

Remeber Skellerup?

The Goldmine Stacks first reconstruction proposal was rejected by the shareholder/bondholders. They then ante'ed up with a better deal.

The current GH proposal is music to the bankers ears - they have an easy exit from the debt, without loss, without a messy receivership. All paid for by the shareholders.

I think it is time to put the bankers heels to the fire. If GH is prepared to pay a fixed amount - the the bankers take a share of the pain.

Only way to achieve this is to vote against the resolution. If a clear statement as to why to the deal is unacceptable to shareholders is made - there is a possibility that a refined deal will be struck.

GH and the Banks DO NOT WANT A RECEIVERSHIP.

The current deal offers shareholders too little - they have nothing to lose by voting NO!

[bushbasher]

quote:Originally posted by Enumerate

GH and the Banks DO NOT WANT A RECEIVERSHIP.

The current deal offers shareholders too little - they have nothing to lose by voting NO!
What, give up the modest chance of getting 12c with an even greater chance of getting zilch? Are you a shareholder?

[D_Pick]

quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by D_Pick

Await news of the next potential investor and terms with interest......and the preliminary full year financial results

Via this latest announcement the board & management have clearly signalled that they feel the company has options. Especially if they are willing to turn away a potential investor if the terms aren't right.




Didn't quite turn out this way did it ... there were no other options

Whats your view as to what has happened D_Pick


Have been offline for a few days winner69, but what a few days it has been for the FTX saga.

As a current shareholder (I haven't sold yet) I will not be voting for the GH offer in its current state, unless the deal is sweetened considerably. It is good to know that GH are still willing to pay $141 million for FTX. They obviously want FTX, as they are coming back for seconds after already taking a loss on their first helping.

The Sleepyhead alternative is much more attractive to me and I assume all existing shareholders as it would allow participation in any future recovery.

I find it hard to justify the logic that this board has firstly agreed to a golden parachute break clause behind closed doors with Godfrey Hirst when other alternatives must exist, and why the board hasn't asked existing shareholders to participate in a rights issue to strenghten the balance sheet as an option before the bank (ANZ) forces a receivership. I'm sure many shareholders would consider committing funds given a recovery path forward.

If the company is cashflow positive (as they have recently announced), and the NZD/AUD currency is weakening (which it is and is expected to continue) then their must be better alternatives than GH's current deal.

I can't see 75% of shareholders agreeing to this deal via a vote, unless further financial information is presented that puts the company in a lot worse condition.

Thats my two cents worth winner69

[DCski13]

Well, so far I haven't read anything on this site re the Turner brothers -

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10394295

[Mako]

Guys I'm just wondering about buying this crap stock at its current price of 1c. Suely it should be possible to make a quick and nasty bit of profit out of this screwed up company, now it might finally wind up in the hands of reasonable operators...

I know existing shareholders are hurting but for a quick and dirty profit what are the risks at 1c?

[Mako]

Jolly Ive just got off the phone with Castro. He's says he's enjoying keeping everyone guessing. He asked me to tell you not to worry, that everything will be just fine. Mind you he did say "as long as you dont buy Feltex". Which worries me, because thats what I've just done at 10.2cents

[redzone]

what about Winston getting the bite.....the poor bloody insect died within seconds

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by bushbasher
What, give up the modest chance of getting 12c with an even greater chance of getting zilch? Are you a shareholder?


No, I am not a shareholder.

However, ask yourself the following question:

"Why doesn't GH simply wait for the receivership and buy the assets at a firesale price?"

Further,

"Do you believe that with the history of poor decision making exhibited by current directors that they have negotiated the best deal possible for shareholders?"

For example, why did they allow the $1million "break fee" in the agreement with GH? Do you really think the ANZ bank wants to see control of the orderly sale of Feltex to be managed by a reciever where 50% by amount AND 50% BY NUMBER are required to control the creditors committee? The ANZ is afraid of the time a recievership will take let alone how much risk there is to their capital.

In my opinion - the GH deal is not the best deal possible. Shareholders have limited options - but they need to play "chicken" with the banks negotiating position.

Shareholders need to start fighting for their interests rather than being herded about by people who put their interest at the bottom of the list.

/disclosure: Don't hold any, never held any - but have been through a similar scenario as a Skellerup bond holder. Also, wish to see the best outcome for shareholders and have no sympathy for the banks position.

[minimoke]

Anyone care to speculate how debt has increased from $113m at the beginning of the year and now stands at $129m. No doubt there are a few people in the ANZ ruing the day they threw more good money after bad – and they’ll be sweating more when the shareholders vote against the GH proposal. Why will they vote “No”, well there were other offers on the table when GH was initially interested, there appears to be some interest from the Turners so holders will have no faith that what Saunders is proposing is in their best interests. Look at Saunders and CEN to support this view!

I’ll look at putting my money in when I see a proposal that also includes the Board being fired, the CEO gone (since he was an old Board Member and is only continuing on the failed ideas of the past,) without golden parachutes as they are incompetent and should not be rewarded for their incompetence. GH still believes there is money to be made from carpet – perhaps it just needs a Feltex board to work out how!

[Lizard]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

I read in a Miami blog somewhere, that when the surgeons made their first cut, they found fluff in his veins.

Later they discovered his ID card said Fidel Hill.


I take it your fantasies include rescue aided by a certain carpet retailer then?

Have another drink and tell us the whole plot [:0]

Disc: Bored

[lanenz]

Going by what we know so far there is no pint in SH'ers accepting the offer. Very one sided and as minimoke said let the banks sweat some. They have more to lose.

if i was a shareholder (and gregor im still not) then it would be a resounding no against the offer. Even if they raised it up to a maximum of 20 cps i would at least want to be guarenteed an amount not guarenteed a maximum amount.

[DCski13]

I was thinking the same time - we could all go to McGarth's tonite! WHo lost the most (at this stage, anyway) buy the first round.

Hey where do ya get the little faces from - I can't find them around here.

[warthog]

Unless somebody with credibility steps into the frame with a solid proposal, in the case where FTX shareholders give GH the boot, the ANZ will pull the plug - they have no other option.

If the Sleepyhead guys step up, they will be investing at a valuation that will leave little for existing shareholders. This little, of course, may exceed the max. 12 cps that GH are offering, but it's certainly another punt.

If the warthog was a FTX shareholder, having lost almost all of the capital sunk into this investment, the inclination would be to hell with the situation, let's vote GH down and enjoy the ride.

Note: it is ANZ Australia who are FTX bankers, not ANZ NZ (Sleepyhead bankers). Ultimately they are owned by the same company, but operationally there is significant separation.

[lanenz]

As long as there is another party in the mix the you have a completely different ball game. GH are always going to be in the best position to know how viable FTX is but rather than give it away GH would be likely to modify their offer.

The banks, they dont want uncertainty they want their money back and they dont really care how. I am also suspicious of what the company value is. Thats why GH needs to do due diligence. If FTX is seen to be making inroads (profit) then likely future profits have to be factored in as well.

As the current offer is now, a sharholder is not guarenteed anything so why would you vote on that? Sleepy can be seen as a saviour or at least a bargaining tool for the shareholders to a certain degree. Even if FTX becomes highly diluted there is still the prospect of Sleepy streamlining the business to make it viable. Either that or its put to bed permantly.

I thought the fat lady was clearing her throat but not quite.

[DCski13]

Me thinks you're miss quoting. The fat lady refers, I think, to the state of Texas. Something to do with Texas reflecting who the next president will be. So the show isn't over til the fat lady (Texas) sings (ballots are struck). Then again, you may be right :D. But wait for the Turner brothers (wonder why the've waiting this long to get into the news)

[sniper]

ANZ bank has neatly left the decision to FTX shareholders and the clowns who call themselves directors.

You can choose to have some money back or you can choose to have no money back.

Either way, we get our money back. Savvy?

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly
Could you tell us what happens once the decision to go in to receivership is made. Like who appoints the receiver? How are they chosen? Is anyone able to tender for the assets? What about the work in progress and orders made? Where do the staff stand? etc etc etc.

And what do you mean be amount and number?


Anyone with a provable debt can petition the high court for payment - if payment is not forthcoming, they get to appoint a receiver. The directors can also appoint a receiver by majority resolution.

The first job of a receiver is to establish the total debt owed. It is possible after this stage to convene a creditors meeting and to overturn the appointment of the receiver.

This resolution, as with much of the powers of the creditors meeting requires at least 50% of the debt to vote in favour AND 50% by number. This means that the ANZ bank counts for 1 - owed a squillion dollars; however the 2 guys each owed $9.95 count for 2 - one of them will have to side with the bank to vote the resolution.

This is why banks are so trigger happy to appoint the receiver. Once appointed - it requires a majority motion to replace them.

[sniper]

Let's hope the Turners get a few wealthy individuals to underwrite an equity raising.

The market can do with another Fletcher Forests type capital raising. Plenty of fun and money to be made.

So .... BRING IT ON!

[Pennywise]

oh poor Jolly, did you learn your new laugh from Cap?

you should declare 'references' you know

you don't even have a stake or a reason[:o)]

[Pennywise]

After reading the clowns posts, I am pretty sure he still has a foot in the stock.

All this time saying belg will come up roses...I think he was really saying he might too but couldn't admit it to save his butt...

You must wonder why all the intense interest from Jolly..don't you;)

[winner69]

Turner plan unlikely to head off Hirst

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10394461


......Macquarie Equities investment director Arthur Lim said yesterday the Turner proposal lacked credibility

........substantial shareholders in Feltex had already been unsuccessfully canvassed about increasing their investment,,,

.... another potential investor had walked away


Maybe just a bit of free (opportunistic) advertising for Sleepyhead after all

[sniper]

Email to to infor@sleepyhead.co.nz

Attention : Mr Craig Turner

Telephone number : 276 9300

Remember to include your contact details and commitment amount.

[winner69]

At least this joker has a sense of realism .... (obviously not Belg under another name)

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/print/0,1478,3752688a1865,00.html

The F-word for small Kiwi shareholders

THURSDAY , 03 AUGUST 2006


By DAVID HARGREAVES
A lot of interesting words and expressions begin with the letter F. There's farce, fiasco, fracas, foul-up – and that's before you get to the rude ones.

Then of course there is Feltex, a six-letter F-word that has come to be synonymous with all the aforementioned things.

The rise and demise of the carpetmaker as a listed company in just two years will go down as one of the more sensational and sorry episodes in New Zealand corporate history.

Given the huge contradictions, inconsistencies and sheer confusion that have surrounded the company in the past year, it would be no surprise at all if the announced deal for Australian carpetmaker Godfrey Hirst to buy it falls over. There are still many hurdles to clamber over between now and the proposed settlement date in October.

Either way Feltex shareholders have little to look forward to, with the best case – and I would contend unlikely – scenario being a 12 cents a share return through what is a de facto liquidation of the Feltex sharemarket-listed entity. The "mums and dads" who have lost their pile on the shares won't need reminding that they paid $1.70 for them – that's at least a 93 per cent loss.

And then there are the 890 workers at Feltex's New Zealand plants who have months ahead of waiting and wondering whether they will have future employment.

Yep, it is a shambles all right.

There may well be a fair bit of fist shaking, calls for legal action and inquiries. To be honest though, there would be little that could now be achieved. The money has gone.

For investors the best thing that could be done is to learn the bitter lessons.

Don't buy shares because the company name is one you are familiar with and on the basis of glossy pictures and a convincing spiel.

When you pick up a prospectus promoting an issue of shares by a company skip straight past the nice pictures, the guff about the industry sector the company operates in and the blurb on the directors, and hone in on the statutory information section. This is the bit that tells you what the people who are selling their shares are getting out of it and what the executives and directors stand to gain.

If it looks like the guys who are selling the shares are getting a good deal and the directors and management are doing well too, ask yourself the simple question – what is left in this company for me?

I would suggest that anybody really asking that question about Feltex at the outset would never have bought shares.

[redzone]

you missed F for finace.....companies

[bushbasher]

quote:I find it hard to justify the logic that this board has firstly agreed to a golden parachute break clause behind closed doors with Godfrey Hirst when other alternatives must exist

I do not find such a break clause unusual in such a M&A transaction. It is unlikely that GH would have signed the deal without the break clause. At around $1m it is fairly cheap and would generally cover GH's costs of due diligence if the deal didn't proceed with them. A recent deal I was involved with had a break fee of $150m (admittedly a much larger transaction).

[DCski13]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

At least this joker has a sense of realism .... (obviously not Belg under another name)

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/print/0,1478,3752688a1865,00.html

The F-word for small Kiwi shareholders

I would suggest that anybody really asking that question about Feltex at the outset would never have bought shares.


Like wise with Mike Pero, Restaurant Brands et al. Those are the only IPOs I can think of that went for a duck. There's probably more out there - how's Goodman Fielder .. going these days. They had a full spread saying "you'll find us in your patry"[:p]

[D_Pick]

quote:Originally posted by bushbasher


quote:I find it hard to justify the logic that this board has firstly agreed to a golden parachute break clause behind closed doors with Godfrey Hirst when other alternatives must exist

I do not find such a break clause unusual in such a M&A transaction. It is unlikely that GH would have signed the deal without the break clause. At around $1m it is fairly cheap and would generally cover GH's costs of due diligence if the deal didn't proceed with them. A recent deal I was involved with had a break fee of $150m (admittedly a much larger transaction).


Thanks bushbasher, I wasn't aware that the risk is usually assumed by the target company when putting together an investment deal.

The $150m break fee you mentioned must have been a large transaction, at a guess $15 billion plus?

[D_Pick]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Turner plan unlikely to head off Hirst

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10394461


......Macquarie Equities investment director Arthur Lim said yesterday the Turner proposal lacked credibility

........substantial shareholders in Feltex had already been unsuccessfully canvassed about increasing their investment,,,

.... another potential investor had walked away


Maybe just a bit of free (opportunistic) advertising for Sleepyhead after all


The clip on the late news last night had a interview with one of the Turner brothers and he sounded credible enough to me [^]

They have apparently been working on a deal for ten months so it would seem a lot of effort for a little bit of free advertising

[DCski13]

There's money just over the ridge on Jerious Road. LOTS of it:D[8D]!!. Hell, I might even become a jafa and move up there[:p]

[Pennywise]

Well this has certainly shut Belg up...

first time I've not seen his name on the first page of off topic for ever:D

All his passionate topics suddenly gone East;)


Jolly has well and truly taken over the mouthpiece role...but why I must ask;)...comeon Jolly, fess up...you got a few eh

[Pennywise]

Don't get me wrong, I would totally like the whole board to be fried for this fcukup

just interested in your intense interest in FTX, are you are looking to enter at some stage then?

why bother, hardly a killing to be made and such massive risk now.
I have never liked it, and said so many a time to our frantic Belgor.

[Fodder]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

Enumerate said: The directors can also appoint a receiver by majority resolution.



Oh dear lord please don't let this thread be hijacked by share trader's very own resident ventriloquist (Jolly) and his favourite dummy (Enumerate)...if anyone is wondering what the **** I'm on about have a read of the Genesis thread...

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by Fodder
Oh dear lord please don't let this thread be hijacked by share trader's very own resident ventriloquist (Jolly) and his favourite dummy (Enumerate)...if anyone is wondering what the **** I'm on about have a read of the Genesis thread...


Well, with 23 posts under your belt, Fodder, I can safely predict you have an illustrious carreer, on sharetrader, arguing the man and not the point.

Isn't there an age limit for this thread?

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by Enumerate


quote:Originally posted by Fodder
Oh dear lord please don't let this thread be hijacked by share trader's very own resident ventriloquist (Jolly) and his favourite dummy (Enumerate)...if anyone is wondering what the **** I'm on about have a read of the Genesis thread...


Well, with 23 posts under your belt, Fodder, I can safely predict you have an illustrious carreer, on sharetrader, arguing the man and not the point.

Isn't there an age limit for this thread?



Yep - 2 yrs and upwards

[Gryffyn]

winner69 - you are having a lot of fun with your thread titles - I suggest you keep a log everytime you change so we can all have a laugh later

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

winner69 - you are having a lot of fun with your thread titles - I suggest you keep a log everytime you change so we can all have a laugh later


Belg has been quiet for a few hours.. After his screaming for the govt to act i wonder whether he has considered enlisting thunderbirds to help

[Pennywise]

He's busy setting up his soapbox outside the Beehive as we speak...

Either that or his now angry "rich mates" and himself are having a chat with the Turners...

either way, he is trying to save his $100k

[bushbasher]

Maybe Belg is confined to his Sleepyhead bed dreaming about how he can pony up more dosh to back the Turner plan. Double or nothing is the strategy.

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by Pennywise

He's busy setting up his soapbox outside the Beehive as we speak...

Either that or his now angry "rich mates" and himself are having a chat with the Turners...

either way, he is trying to save his $100k


I don't think either of us believe wages boy has anything like 100k invested in carpet??

[D_Pick]

A couple of questions:

Why would the Turner brothers (Sleepyhead) go public if they don't have a better offer than the current GH proposal?

Why would GH be willing to offer $141.8m for FTX in the first place if they didn't think the future sustainable cashflows/profitability will provide an adequate return on their investment.

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by D_Pick

A couple of questions:

Why would the Turner brothers (Sleepyhead) go public if they don't have a better offer than the current GH proposal?

Why would GH be willing to offer $141.8m for FTX in the first place if they didn't think the future sustainable cashflows/profitability will provide an adequate return on their investment.




Turner Bros only puting up $10m - not much realy. But will they own a proportionate share - doubt it.

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Busy day couple of days ... don't write of the Sleepy offer just yet. ;)

Loved Authur Lim's comment: "had been in contact with major shareholders" ... Yeah right! Up until a few weeks ago there weren't any major shareholders ... :D

Im voting NO to the GH offer. Sorry FTX employees - your livelihoods are now at stake.

Stuff is happening ...

W69 - why not tell everyone who GH's bank is [}:)]

And I expect an Enquiry ... there are some very pissed off people out there - many who have never held FTX shares and think the whole thing sucks - If the NZX is have any creditability, and the NZ Govt as well, then an Enquiry is "manditory".

Sleep well ...

discl: bought more [:I]

PS. Sniper I was talking to your boss - you're full of sh!t ;)



how often is the companies office database updated??
A search on feltex shows the largest single shareholder has a little over 6 million shares from a possible 149 million...

[barnsley bill]

On the subject of BS
I would have to disagree with you there sniper...
This is much bigger than the wee man normally manages. he will really struggle to top this one.
His calls for helen and the sisterhood to help is hilarious, what next?
Kofi annan.
Joe 90.

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

BB - Feel like a dork?

The last 3 months has seen a rout of the share register ... Have you not noticed my posts about 1% of the register trading daily?

There is a whole new set of owners ... All so far are staying below 5% and all are thinking about blocking GH ... Will they? I suspect that, like me, they'll be waiting for the full year accounts and hedging in between. It is likely that some of the new holders will be holding on behalf of GH and some, like me, will be holding for a far, far better deal. As I have said - GH are getting a frigging bargain! Either GH front up and pay a far, far better price or us holders will block it. End of story ...

Alas, not for the ANZ ... they'll get burnt ... both financially and publically ... "the best laid plans of mice and men go [oft] awry" ... and one could add bankers to the list of mice and men [}:)]

Ain't all over yet - the fat lady is taking in breath ... [}:)]


You should block it belg, then the bank can step in and sell it to GH for the mortgage...
That will further confuse you and guarantee the rest of us more of your highly amusing rants.

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

W69, sold half at 62c. Will re-enter below 50c. I suggested that G.H. bid was a bit amateurish. I think they've wised up. Time works in G.H's favour. Still see at least 80c by end of year. Volumes are very low given the diverse share register. The register will make it hard for G.H. to get enough. This is going to be a long drawn out play methinks. Yawn. ;)


[:0]

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

"materially below that at which the shares last traded"

BTW ... No not dumping. Greg said get 10%. Problem is ... the mums and dads just aren't selling ... time for the brokers to get on the phone and make them sell.


They were selling, Belgarion, the Mum and Dad investors. You were buying.

So who got plucked? And now is crying to Auntie Helen for redress.

How does the inside of her skirt look like?

[Krustytheclown]

quote:Originally posted by sniper




quote:Originally posted by belgarion

"materially below that at which the shares last traded"

BTW ... No not dumping. Greg said get 10%. Problem is ... the mums and dads just aren't selling ... time for the brokers to get on the phone and make them sell.


They were selling, Belgarion, the Mum and Dad investors. You were buying.

So who got plucked? And now is crying to Auntie Helen for redress.

How does the inside of her skirt look like?



Big Hairy Bollocks [:0] swing low I Hear Sniper!

Lanenz could certainly confirm this for us .....being a Govt Accolyte.

(PS...Ive never seen her in a dress...let alone a red one)

G.

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Sell, you b'stards, sell ... ;)

FTX is going down [}:)]

discl: hold and would like more if sellers will get out at 32c ;), holders should realise that holding will require more investment .... Have the readies? If not, sell now! [}:)]


Belgarion urging Mum and Dad investors to sell to him.

Sense the disdain he had for them?

Then he got plucked. And now he wants to be their champion.

Too bad that they were smrt enough to get out so they need no loser to champion them.

[barnsley bill]

there is literally dozens of his posts just like that one. Well at least he is giving off-topic a rest while he slowly descends into a blubbery mess on this thread.[:p]

[CAM]

After reading through some of this thread....
the story about not trying to catch a falling knife comes to mind.

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by CAM


After reading through some of this thread....
the story about not trying to catch a falling knife comes to mind.


:D sums it up brilliantly

[shasta]

Easy CAM & BB you'll get macdunk going with the falling knife story!

[CAM]

Nah it must be past his bedtime by now

[Pennywise]

His bravado is now making us all sick...

Belg, go back to off topic, at least unreality is easier to push.

you are more than a page off topic;)

try to push the easy barrow mate

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion


PS. Sniper I was talking to your boss - you're full of sh!t ;)



Are you scared Sniper, ????

Cheers

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion (17 March 2006)

Hell no limegreen. Im sitting waiting to catch FTX ;) It's a dirty job but someone has to do it. [:I]



Belgarion caught FTX alright. BIG TIME caught buying from Mums and Dads and he thought he was the smart one encouraging them to sell to him.

I think it is time though to give him a break - subject to him behaving himself and not subjecting the rest of us humanity to his hypocritical rantings any more.

We understand you are hurting BAD.

That's understandable. The very same Mum and Dad investors you so disdainly encouraged to sell their FTX shares to you ('to be plucked' was your cry phrase) have proven to be the more savvy ones.

It's painful to be caught out being a hypocrite as well.

But it's okay. Everyone makes mistakes and you just need to move on.

PS. Otherwise Pennywise, BB and CAM will just have to keep kicking your butt, savvy? ;)

[Stranger_Danger]

Is it just me, or is this thread starting to look like a Prozac convention?

Belgarion took a risk, then shot his mouth off, and ultimately got it wrong. He lost some money presumably. That is the game, you win some, you lose some.

He didn't bash two babies to death whilst sitting on a benefit, or go on a P fuelled crime spree, or do anything of the sort. He bought some shares, stuck to a view, was probably wrong, and will end up with a significant loss.

As fellow investors, is basking in another mans loss really such a glorious look?

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by Stranger_Danger

Is it just me, or is this thread starting to look like a Prozac convention?

Belgarion took a risk, then shot his mouth off, and ultimately got it wrong. He lost some money presumably. That is the game, you win some, you lose some.

He didn't bash two babies to death whilst sitting on a benefit, or go on a P fuelled crime spree, or do anything of the sort. He bought some shares, stuck to a view, was probably wrong, and will end up with a significant loss.

As fellow investors, is basking in another mans loss really such a glorious look?





Not normally no.
If we were dealing with a reasonable person I would agree with you completely. However we are dealing with the single most pompous and self righteous individual on ST.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion


And W69 ... "No comment" from you means you're buying [}:)]

Charlatans ;)


Been away for a couple of days Belg .... in that wet miserable place called Auckland .... and didn't even go near Otahuhu

But answering your question mate ... why the hell would I want to buy even 1 Feltex share

If anybody actually does come with a decent business case for 'investing' in a NEW Feltex maybe an opportunity .... all those things sniper oulined the other day would have to be met.

Only NEW money is going to reap any rewards from this dog ... buying existing shares is only a cash transfer between interested bystanders ... does nothing for Feltex.

Belg ... you think you know how I operate so why ask such a stupid question .... sort of suggesting that I endorse your views ... which I don't

Best of luck anyway mate .... you might have bought yourself a small say in the outcome but that it is not going to mean much at the end of the day

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

The "Sleepy" deal has much to recommened it to new holders like me.




What is the Sleepyhead deal Belg?

Details?

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion
.....and new holders can enjoy the ride.




Hey Belg ... we are the same page .... if a new business plan is put in place and Feltex recapitalised ..... NEW holders can enjoy the ride ... and I might be one of the them

What I don't understand is why you have to pay a fare to get on the bus going nowhere (or best case scenario to an unknown place) when you can wait to see where the bus is actually going and then work out whether the fare is actually worth it.

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Compare the latest from this two faced hypocrite :

And the numbers are growing ... While the mums and dads investors are being fleeced by a concerted effort by the Board, Senior officiers, media and the majority of posters on this site.

With this posting from him just a couple of weeks ago :

"materially below that at which the shares last traded"

BTW ... No not dumping. Greg said get 10%. Problem is ... the mums and dads just aren't selling ... time for the brokers to get on the phone and make them sell.



Belgarion, looks like you have yet to learn that you cannot be a two-faced hyprocrite on this or any other site and get away with it.

[Lawso]

Sunday Star-Times reports that one Philip Chisholm, a former stockbroker with JBW, Wellington, is another investor likely to support the Turners. The article says Chisholm bought 992,868 FTX shares "when the company was already in trouble, expecting to invest more when it made a cash call. The call never came and Chisholm has now hitched his wagon firmly to the Turner option. Shareholders, he said, would never support the Godfrey Hirst deal."

He said it's "so stupid I'm stunned anyone would want to take the company that way . . . the GH bid will fail. It's doomed."

"A proactive campaign against the deal would sink it at the special meeting, leaving ANZ to choose between receivership or the Turner plan - and almost any deal would be better than receivership, he said.

"The market should know more about the Turners' plan by Wednesday, said Chisholm."


It would be good to see some more Kiwi high-rollers stand up and be counted in a bid to save Feltex and keep it in NZ hands.
Not that I'm bothered personally, as I sold out of FTX in early '05 @ 168cps, having acquired them as a bondholder for 161.5c[^]

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by belgarion
.....and new holders can enjoy the ride.




Hey Belg ... we are the same page .... if a new business plan is put in place and Feltex recapitalised ..... NEW holders can enjoy the ride ... and I might be one of the them

What I don't understand is why you have to pay a fare to get on the bus going nowhere (or best case scenario to an unknown place) when you can wait to see where the bus is actually going and then work out whether the fare is actually worth it.




I think there would be quite a few of us hopping aboard that bus, once the fare was known, many posters (Inc me) have stated that the time to buy in, was during the rights trading period.

Yes, I know I have bad mouthed Belg in the past, my thinking is that his "crime" was to jump in too early. (and encourage others to follow)

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Lawso

I sold out of FTX in early '05 @ 168cps, having acquired them as a bondholder for 161.5c[^]


Obviously an excellent call in hindsight - well done.

Was this a hunch, or was some reasoning behind this move?

Some investers will obviously ditch an IPO allocation right after listing, regardless of where it is going, but there is of course a component of judgment there as the invester can delay selling and make/lose morethan just selling at market immediately.

How long would you have held onto FTX if it had started trending upwards? How would you know, either way?

[sniper]

http://www.northington.co.nz/peo.asp?person=23&peopleStart=0&staffType=

Check out this glowing profile of Tim Saunders - how did he get things so wrong? This whole Feltex episode will end up doing enomous damage to his reputation and ability to negotiate anything in the future.

He now has one last chance to salvage some good out of the situation - negotiate either the GH or Turners deal through to the best outcome for shareholders.

If he stuffs up and shareholders lose all ......

[Lawso]

quote:Obviously an excellent call in hindsight - well done.

Was this a hunch, or was some reasoning behind this move?

More luck than anything else, I guess, warthog. I'd bought the 10.25% bonds in '03 as part of my fixed interest portfolio but was never mad keen on the FTX shares as CAV had long been (and still is) a major holding of mine and I was wary of being overexposed to the one industry. So as the FTX shares drifted below the 170 IPO price i decided to get out. Had no idea, of course, of the disasters ahead.

I agree with the media commentators and others (especially Brian Gaynor's piece in the NZ Herald) that the Securities Commission should act and the issue promoters and FTX chairman and directors should be called to account.

[winner69]

Feltex announcement un Feb -

In relation to the opportunity where other outside proposals were received,
Godfrey Hirst's proposal was demonstrably uncompetitive when compared with all other proposals.

Those 'all other proposals' must have been pretty good .... OK to say that in hindsight but Tim I'm sure many trust you

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by sniper


http://www.northington.co.nz/peo.asp?person=23&peopleStart=0&staffType=

Check out this glowing profile of Tim Saunders - how did he get things so wrong? This whole Feltex episode will end up doing enomous damage to his reputation and ability to negotiate anything in the future.

He now has one last chance to salvage some good out of the situation - negotiate either the GH or Turners deal through to the best outcome for shareholders.

If he stuffs up and shareholders lose all ......


Gee Sniper, thats a lot of companies I will have to avoid, if I want to keep clear of Tim's golden touch !

Back in my working days (back before I became a burden on the taxpayer) I recall assisting in preparing some companies monthly accounts, so there is really no excuse for being suprised by interim trading results, hey, the company I worked for was a lot smaller than FTX, (bigger company should equate to better internal reporting systems) If rescue/rights issue does eventuate, I'd be happy to have a punt in the right circumstances, and one of those circumstances would be a reconstruction of board of directors, hey, even Belg would be a better director than present incumbents.

[winner69]

Another day in the life of two Hirst guys doing due diligence

One Hirst guy to the other ...'these employment contracts are have a pretty generous redundancy clause in them'

the other says ' and the boss has said he will keep the employees on ... and on the same terms'

... 'and didn't he say we would be clsoing some of these places down as well .... 11 factories or whatever the number is far too many anyway'

finally ' we better tell him that'll cost him x millions in redundancies ... that'll piss him off .... he thought there was some hope in this outfit'

[sniper]

W69, good point re due diligence. One can just imagine Mr Saunders busy running around and getting the books ready for inspection but can he get the working capital (stock, debtors, creditors etc) in shape in time?

Be a fascinating exercise in human psychology if GH does its due diligence and then, decides to walk away.

Bet you that the Turners (and said rich investors) will suddenly not be keen to proceed as well. Some convenient excuses will be found as to why FTX is not a goer anymore then.

Wednesday, says Mr Chisholm (caught with his 993,000 shares), and all will be revealed re Turners deal. Was it all a dream on a sleepyhead bed?

Can't wait! Either way, an opportunity beckons.

[D_Pick]

Opportunity knocks indeed sniper, are you buying yet. You wouldn't want to have shorted FTX in the last couple of days.....ouch

I'm looking forward to the GH deal being kicked into touch. I still can't fathom the logic behind the board agreeing to a $1m break fee if an alternative proposal is accepted?

Was this break fee demanded by ANZ? It doesn't apppear to be in the best interests of existing shareholders, especially given the current market value of FTX's existing equity. If anything this break fee serves to motivate existing shareholders to reject the current GH deal and back an alternative.

Momentum is building for a good return bus trip.

[D_Pick]

Sleephead deal Wednesday....revised GH offer by Friday?

Should be a good week

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion
At the risk of causing more gnashing of teeth and frothing at the month by my devoted followers ... disclosure: Avg price 12.1 cents.


..... not AVERAGING UP then Belg

[Pennywise]

Belg said: "Pennywise. 4 accounts over 3 brokers. too much effort. sorry. still waiting for formal confirmation of actual trades."


Just incredible how you manage these accurate "average" figures when apparently your spreadsheet doesn't know what Martha told Arthur...or what Arthur did with Martha.

12.1c now eh;)

How many more did you buy to get down from 13.7c?

Too difficult?[:I]

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Show me the books ... Much has happened in the last 12 months and even the last 6 ... Anyone trying to value the GH deal or the Sleepy one is shooting blind without the Audited FY results ... Due 3rd week September I believe ... Fun and games until then ...

At the risk of causing more gnashing of teeth and frothing at the month by my devoted followers ... disclosure: Avg price 12.1 cents.


[:o)][:o)][:o)]

[Pennywise]

yes, absolutely beyond us...way beyond us

way over our heads Belg[|)]

you are just miles ahead mate;)

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by bongo66

My last offer Belgarion. I will give you .001c per share and do you an additional favour and get you some new medication while im at it.

I have done some Google research and understand large Lithium doses can be quite expensive and must be increased when the patient is under stress.

I understand that when you earn a 4 figure salary this can be a strain on financial resources.

Given your rather large financial woopsie of late maybe we at ST could band together for your daily dose.


Your Pal, Bongo


brilliant... your offer is probably too late though, he will undoubtedly have averaged down so far by now that his shares must surely owe him less than you are offering. He has been quiet tonight, probably off helping the world bank end poverty or beating big blue at chess with only half his brain...

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by D_Pick

Opportunity knocks indeed sniper, are you buying yet. You wouldn't want to have shorted FTX in the last couple of days.....ouch


Ouch alright, Sniper shorted again late last week. But I think he pulled his post declaring his new short.

[basil]

quote:Originally posted by Heavy Metal

quote:Originally posted by D_Pick

Opportunity knocks indeed sniper, are you buying yet. You wouldn't want to have shorted FTX in the last couple of days.....ouch

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Ouch alright, Sniper shorted again late last week. But I think he pulled his post declaring his new short.


Appears like Belgarion has averaged down by eating Snipers shorts - be interesting to see who comes out ahead at the end of this saga.

[winner69]

Due diligence update re the 2 Hirst guys pouring over the FTX books

"That Warranties and Claims Provision looks a bit odd"

'Why mate'

'Firstly $4-$5M a year in warranty payments is very high .... much above any acceptable average'

'And'

"Claims run at $4M-$5M a year but the current provision has been reduced and is now less than $2M'

'Better tell the boss .... he'll probably want to allow for that'

[lanenz]

Bel...Looks like it would be a good time to exit considering your exposure in this stock. At this price you are now in the money. well done.

[basil]

quote: Bel...Looks like it would be a good time to exit considering your exposure in this stock. At this price you are now in the money. well done.

Having averaged down to 12.1c he must have $400K+ in play ;)- just needs a bigger mug to come along - maybe strike a deal with Sniper to cancel each other out ? :D

[bushbasher]

quote:Originally posted by lanenz

Bel...Looks like it would be a good time to exit considering your exposure in this stock. At this price you are now in the money. well done.
I agree Belg unless you have cast iron nads. I think the chance of this Sleepyhead proposal falling over are still very high. Playing very high stakes here.

[Lizard]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion
Belgarion wants to see the books, audited and complete. Why? Belgarion trusts you not.


So why on earth are you behaving as though you think the books might possibly be in a better state than Feltex are letting on? Would go completely against their somewhat "over-optimistic" record.

Or are you supporting Jolly's conspiracy theories and joining MacDunk in the "man never went to the moon" camp?

Trade 'em maybe on market sentiment, but all I am seeing is a market in denial.

[lanenz]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly
[br
As far as comparisons to Enron etc go, it can safely be said, some people, including the average investor, did get to be quite wealthy from those companies so long as they were following rules laid down by Phaedrus. The same cannot be said of FTX.


They may not have made money but they wouldnt have gone broke

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Geez; some people's math is awful ...


:D:D:D

you can't even work it out for yourself Belg[:I]

too much work, too many accounts over too many brokers...too much effort....


You are starting to sound like you'ld fit quite nicely on the FTX board.

BTW Baz...He's approaching $200k

another 800,000 @ 10.5c ish for $84,000 on top of the 800,000 or thereabouts he already owned at 13.7c

Bet the wifey doesn't know;)

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

I'd like to know who are the other members of the Turner consortium and who the lead bank is.

I've heard the Turners bank with ANZ but I haven't heard them say that is the lead of the group.


The Turners would be looking to involve their bank with whom they have had a relationship for decades - the ANZ, but the NZ operation, not ANZ Australia who FTX's bank.

[barnsley bill]

Does belgarion know that belgarion is talking about belgarion... The talking in the third person is a new twist for our resident walter mitty... [:o)]

[sniper]

Before FTX shows us its 'goodies', show us your spreadsheet, Belg, on your unrivalled ability to average down to 12.1 cents on the kind of price fall that FTX has suffered - from 35 cents to 22 cents to 13 cents to 9 cents at each gap-down.

Mathematically, if you start with $x invested at 35 cents, you would need to have spent a total of $18.3x by now to achieve your average price of 12.1 cents - based upon your disclosed breakeven price. That is, if you had $25,000 invested in Feltex, you need to have spent $640,500 by now to get your average price of 12.1 cps.

Your chance to stand up proud and prove others wrong.

Take it. Be a man. ;)

[sniper]

BTW, short still and happy to be so.

Cooooool cucumbers. Will take the sleepy heads to dinner when they front up with the rights issue. Shall we say 3 for 1 at 7 cents?

[tsb]

The board clearly wants out with presumably its golden handshake – which they try and ring fence with a million break free. I wonder if they ever wanted the company to succeed in any shape or form. Total und utter incompetence - or just working to the plan?

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by sniper



Mathematically, if you start with $x invested at 35 cents, you would need to have spent a total of $18.3x by now to achieve your average price of 12.1 cents - based upon your disclosed breakeven price. That is, if you had $25,000 invested in Feltex, you need to have spent $640,500 by now to get your average price of 12.1 cps.

Your chance to stand up proud and prove others wrong.

Take it. Be a man. ;)




Sniper that means that Belg would have had bought another 5.2 million shares at an average around 11.8 cents


Thats about 3.5% of the company .... getting close to the 4.95%

He could be right

[Pennywise]

Isn't it funny, that this self professed "IT techy" "software engineer", Belgarion from Takapuna (aka:Jeremy) can't produce a spreadsheet[:I]...a damn basic spreadsheet...[:o)]

Imagine if this dork was being paid $$$ to work on your sophisticated project:D:D:D

absolutely hilarious...self deceit at its worst.

does ANYONE actually believe this guy???

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

My, my. The game isn't over yet and already the gloating has begun.

Jolly: I think we are up to about Act III of a four part play.

Ain't all over until the fat lady sings ... That usually happens at the end of act four (according to jolly anyway).

discl: hold at average price of 13.7 cents, dollars spent in six figures, dollars held in reserve for recapitalisation, 4 times dollars spent. The last act of the play is usually the most interesting but the suspence is killing me ...


So 13.7 cents on 27 July 2006 - say $150,000 spent.

Share prices over next few days :

28 July 13c
31 July 12c
1 Aug 13c
2 Aug 9c
3 Aug 10.4c
4 Aug 10.8c
7 Aug 12c

Let's assume he picks the average of 1 Aug to 4 Aug to buy - so 10.8c on average.

Guess how many more shares he has to buy to bring his average down to 12.1c?

We are waiting for your answer, Belgarion.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by sniper


quote:Originally posted by belgarion

My, my. The game isn't over yet and already the gloating has begun.

Jolly: I think we are up to about Act III of a four part play.

Ain't all over until the fat lady sings ... That usually happens at the end of act four (according to jolly anyway).

discl: hold at average price of 13.7 cents, dollars spent in six figures, dollars held in reserve for recapitalisation, 4 times dollars spent. The last act of the play is usually the most interesting but the suspence is killing me ...


So 13.7 cents on 27 July 2006 - say $150,000 spent.

Share prices over next few days :

28 July 13c
31 July 12c
1 Aug 13c
2 Aug 9c
3 Aug 10.4c
4 Aug 10.8c
7 Aug 12c

Let's assume he picks the average of 1 Aug to 4 Aug to buy - so 10.8c on average.

Guess how many more shares he has to buy to bring his average down to 12.1c?

We are waiting for your answer, Belgarion.








about 1.26 million ..... do i get the chocolate fish?

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Brothers seek quick decision on Feltex (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10395269)

Everyone wants a quick decision ... Belgarion wants to see the audited FY books.


Thats one story

Here's another
[/b]Hirst might walk from Feltex bid [/b]
http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3758597a13,00.html

... and the workers rep sums it all up ....if you raise enough money just to keep the place going, is that going to be enough to sustain it over the long haul?"

Good question eh Belg

If it transpired that Hirst came to the conclusion they can't squeeze something of value out of Feltex than what hope would Sleepyhead have.

The Feltex operations have some value .... no disputing that ... they can make some money and satisifactory returns if structured right .... but what price do you pay for such a business ... even $140M odd and taking on debt to fund it is a lot.

Of the big three in the Australian market (Feltex, Cavalier and Hirst) Feltex has the hardest road to hoe competitive wise ....

- their overall selling prices (on a sq metre basis) are lower than their competitors because they have less share of the more premium type of carpet (or more of the cheaper stuff)

- they are more 'exposed' to cheaper imports than the others

- they are less efficient manufacturing wise ... with higher production costs per sq metre


That's some of the long term problems Feltex have and any new owner from outside the industry would have to face (Hirst would at least have the advantage of squuezing some synergies out of a combined outfit)

I might be wrong but if the Sleepyhead want some of my money they better have a good story that tells me what they are really going to do to feltex in the future .... more than just improving the current way they do work

Just an early morning rave

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Im supprised no ones mentioned Shaw Industries. This is part of the problem. And one suspects another reason for an investigation.


And why Hirst would not want to repeat the Feltex mistake and pay too much (over the odds in other words) for growth .... esp if debt is involved.

[D_Pick]

GH walk away... They walked away last time and surprise they are back again. I doubt they will want to walk away this time

Why would GH put any offer on the table if they intend to walk away? They obviously value and want something within the FTX portfolio of brands and manufacturing facilities to offer in the first place.

[Pennywise]

Maybe Belg should show GH his 'spreadsheet' ...they may up their offer based on his genius 8th wonder of the world...the upsidedown pyramid;)

[Pennywise]

PS, I bet FTX would love Belgarion to teach them how to build 'spreadsheets' like his one too.

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by ENIGMA
Posted - 20/06/2005 : 3:55:50 PM


Next you will have a takeover bid at 10 cents by one of these restructure merchants possibly the same one that sold it to you in an IPO.

Is this guy Nostradamus???

[barnsley bill]

Posted - 20/06/2005 : 2:22:25 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by winner69


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by belgarion

Someone is accumlating but I know not who.

Might take punt (and it would be!) if we get to 60



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Even cheaper today mate



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


And the wording of the annoncement makes me as suspicious as hell ... I'll wait for the auditted results. Chicken I may be stupid I'm not. Mind you, a little flutter tomorrow might be an idea ...

Edited:

"Little flutter tomoorow"? Irrational post on my part. With i-rates returning 8-10% plus with little risk and the market overvaluing many stocks (IMHO) AND with FTX being a very dodgy dog ... Why bother? I like sleep and while I like risk too ... the top of a market is NOT, repeat NOT the time to do it. Money stays as cash and near cash.

Watching and learning is the name of the game with this very naughty puppy. A time will come but it ain't now.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Edited by - belgarion on 20/06/2005 3:22:19 PM


tell me B what changed??

[Halebop]

My game is Low Risk / High Return, not the other way round. Even if FTX is saved, it will still be a perennial disappointment. It’s genetic.

[rymndchn]

Godfrey only gets the $1m break fee IF Feltex walks away from the deal.

If Godfrey walk out, they get nothing.

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

BB, Things change almost daily - haven't you been following?

Save you gloating PW, BB et al ... It ain't all over yet. If it all comes apart, then gloat all you want ... I'll not care one jot ... Nothing ventured; nothing gained.

It is the nature of the game :D



:D:D:D

it's already over for you Belgor.

everyone can see straight through you now.

told the wifey about the $200k yet;)

[DCski13]

quote:Originally posted by rymndchn

Godfrey only gets the $1m break fee IF Feltex walks away from the deal.

If Godfrey walk out, they get nothing.


[u]</u>

Me don't think Saunders and company have the nerve to play the game to get GH to walk given that Turner and brother come in on a nod. I.e FTX PLAYS the $1m walk fee.

(It's nice in Herne Bay this evening. Wounder where I'll go for breakfast tomorrow after my run).

[Base Trader]

I personally do not think NZ$1m is much to spend in the case you walk out with an intimate knowledge of a key competitors business.

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by sniper


Belgarion,

Show us your spreadsheet.



I've just worked it out Sniper...

he's using the same spreadsheet he did on TWR;)

You know the one

Start buying at $5...then $4.50 all the way down....to rights issue, where Belgarion manages to "average down" to $1.20:D (when lowest it got was around $1.10) and then sold at around $1.90...and voila! he says L@@K 80% profit.

please please give us that spreadsheet Belg, I want one just like it...

Its TWR all over again

[Toddy]

I thought Pennywise was Sniper.

Very cleaver posting on your posting.

[morpork]

quote:Originally posted by Toddy

I thought Pennywise was Sniper.

Very cleaver posting on your posting.



And I thought he was pimpit,damn forums,

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion


quote:Originally posted by Pennywise

I've just worked it out Sniper...

he's using the same spreadsheet he did on TWR;)

You know the one

Start buying at $5...then $4.50 all the way down....to rights issue, where Belgarion manages to "average down" to $1.20:D (when lowest it got was around $1.10) and then sold at around $1.90...and voila! he says L@@K 80% profit.

please please give us that spreadsheet Belg, I want one just like it...


TWR traded around $1.10 for about two months ... I really struggle to understand why the maths is so difficult for your K9.

Toddy, Pennywise is the previous banded (and banded) poster who used to call himself C9 and K9 ... He's a used car salesman from Picton

as oppposed to a fantasist from ??

[hairdresser]

How much is FTX worth to GH??

Consider

1. GH will take out its major competitor in the Australasian carpet market. Price competition and discounting will decrease and should result in a topline improvement of around 5-10% on sales of $500-$600m. This is why the retailers support the survival of FTX.

2. GH can gain significant synergies through rationalisation of production, sales and marketing, and management across both companies.

Assumptions
Sustainable EBITDA of $12m pa for FTX
Efficiencies $20m pa through cost cutting
Price improvement c7% on 500m sales = $35m pa
This will give GH EBITDA of around $57m pa from the takeover
With a multiple of 7x this gives a value to GH $399m
Purchase price $141m
Value created for GH $258m

This ignores capex, restructuring costs, asset sales, and tax. However it still looks like a pretty good deal for GH.

Compare this with the Turners “proposal”

1. No synergies
2. No increase in pricing power
3. Increased competition from GH

Conservative sustainable EBITDA of $12m pa
Efficiencies $0m
Pricing improvement 0%
Total EBITDA from takeover $12m
With an EBITDA multiple of 7x = $84m
Purchase price $141m
Value created -$57m


Conclusion
GH would “happily” pay more than their current offer if they have to.
But it’s hard to see how anyone but an existing player in the Australasian carpet market could beat the current offer and CAV have not expressed any interest.

[Base Trader]

The cost efficiencies and price improvement are generous. In a cyclical market with increasing competition from imports (a 7% margin increase occured this would increase the draw of imported carpets on arb alone) there is no way GH would extract these synergies in the short to medium term.

However, I totally agree with the conclusion. GH offer the best value proposition.

[minimoke]

So how good are Tim Saunders negotiating skills?

The Turner brothers have been sniffing around FTX for a year now. When things turn to total custard what does he do? Does he put the pressure on the Turners to come up with a deal or does he do his best to mitigate GH’s previous losses. Well he goes for the later option – opens up the books to GH so that they get an inside view of FTX and throws in another $1m cash.

Saunders sole strategy can only be to see the demise of FTX. He is probably smarting that it has taken him so long to get this far but this final gambit he is playing should see him succeed.

Shareholders will reject the GH offer thus sending the $1m off to GH. GH will then have all the inside information they need to compete harder against FTX and if the banks close the doors GH get to pick over the carcass. If Turners succeed they will have to find an extra mil to cover the GH sweetener, thus making their job harder. What Belgarion should be asking is not to open the books but WHAT IS Saunders getting from ALL THIS. Perhaps this is where the $30m in extra undisclosed debt is going!

(Edited on Snipers advice. Apologies to Saunders in advance if he is offended by the comment)

[J R Ewing]

If you look carefully you can see Saunders in some of the shots taken of the grassy knoll as well ;)

[biker]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke

So how good are Tim Saunders negotiating skills?...............


(Edited on Snipers advice. Apologies to Saunders in advance if he is offended by the comment)



Wimp. It was only a question you were posing,not a statement.
Also is wasn't advice from sniper, it was a demand.
Double wimp.

[duncan macgregor]

I think you lot are hilarious. Reading this page sniper is Saunders.
Pennywise is C9 and K9 and is a used car sales person from Picton. I then read that pennywise is Sniper then somone else thought he was Pimpit. Between the lot of you i wonder who has been expelled then crawled back the most times. We are all amused keep it coming ladies. Macdunk

[Pennywise]

:D:D:D

even funnier is that Belgor is so far behind the 8 ball...

Is there a used car sales in Picton?...don't think so


In Belgs own words "Geezz" some people are stupid.

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

a great first post hairdresser. I did something simliar, hence my saying that it's a very, very sweet deal for GH.

BT, I don't think HD has overestimated the synergies that badly and in some areas I think he's underestimted them. Overall, it looks about right to me. The 'cheap imports' thang is a bit overrated IMHO.

If GH want FTX, they had better sweeten their offer. Or holders will take the hump at GH's opportunism and vote to preserve the status quo ...


Which means ANZ puts FTX into receivership and GH gets FTX for zero payout to shareholders.

Real smart.

[hairdresser]

FTX Where did the cash go?

As previously disclosed
- Dividends
- Restructuring charges
- Payouts to ex staff

As glossed over
- Manufacturing for inventory

Manufacturing companies with high fixed costs have the opportunity to manufacture for inventory [or for overly optimistic forecasts], ie increasing the gross margin artificially by loading inventory with the costs of production. The unit cost of production decreases and profitability increases for the 1st accounting period. However the companies cash gets tied up in unrealistically high levels of inventory often funded by expensive short term debt.

The usual wrought is:
1. Management produce high forecasts for period 1 & 2
2. Production is increased to a level to that enables the company to supply the high forecast demand, improving gross margin and profitability for period 1
3. High accounting profits are generated reported for period 1
4. Management get big bonuses based on profitability

The only problem is that the chickens come home to roost in the period 2. The company has low cash, high short term debt, high inventory and still has high fixed costs.

Excess stock is moved on through discounting and manufacturing is scaled back until the excess inventory is cleared. Gross margin increases due to lower production levels but even through profitability is decreased the company should be able to generate cash from clearing inventory to continue to pay its bills. Retailers and consumers are the winners while competitors suffer from the discounting in the market.

The next steps are usually
5. Directors announce that profits are unexpectedly way below expectations due to an unexpected drop in market demand.
6. Directors check the forecasts and the assumptions behind them and get rid of the management team who produced them if they haven’t already left.
7. Directors put in place a more vigorous system to try validate the production forecasts. By simply checking market share and market growth and market share history and future assumptions, overly optimistic forecasts should be quickly identified. Companies that do this are not “surprised” by an unexpected downturn in demand.
8. Directors start sorting out the mess.

Trading, manufacturing and accounting fall back into line in period 3 [when production returns to match demand] with more realistic gross margins ie not distorted by over or under production.

Bank debt can be reduced from cashflow [reduction in inventory], and sale of non-core assets. It is also a good opportunity to restructure to reduce costs. Management has a stronger negotiating position with unions and other staff when workers have to accept restructuring in order to “save the company”.

With FTX

1. It is extremely likely that profitability that they will return to acceptable profitability in the next 12 months.

2. There is little likelihood that the bank will pull the plug on FTX as a) FTX are not in default b) they are able to meet their financial commitments c) profitability will improve in the next period and d) they can produce cashflow forecasts that support reducing levels of bank debt and e) the bank would most likely lose money in a receivership and also be subject to court action. There are many other good reasons why the bank won’t call in the receivers unless FTX defaults on its loans.

3. If GH believe that the shareholders will reject the current offer you can expect an announcement prior to the shareholder meeting to the effect “after completing due diligence we are pleasantly surprised with the results, we are now in a position where we can offer the current shareholders a guaranteed payment of 12c per share”.

PS Don’t confuse liquidity with profitability

[Jess9]

So, assuming the above, would one have expected to see a rising inventory current asset over the last 2-3 Quarterly's, within the BS etc? (that's balance sheet not something else ; ) Or would this sign likely be hidden by the "discounted" sales?

[sniper]

I for one am eagerly waiting for the Turners to front up with a firm proposal to recapitalise FTX.

There will be serious money to be made if that happens so best wishes to the Turners.

[hairdresser]

From FTX in Feb 06 my highlights

HALFYR: FTX: FELTEX ANNOUNCES INTERIM RESULTS - DECEMBER 2005 10:20am
FTX
20/02/2006
HALFYR

REL: 1020 HRS Feltex Carpets Limited

HALFYR: FTX: FELTEX ANNOUNCES INTERIM RESULTS - DECEMBER 2005

INTRODUCTION

The Interim Results reflect the impact of the series of significant
restructuring initiatives commenced during the six month period ended
December 2005. Many of the main initiatives are still being implemented as
at February 2006.

The one-off costs and the costs of implementing the restructuring adversely
affected the reported financial performance for the period under review.
However, the Board notes that initial benefits are already beginning to flow
through the business in terms of improved operational efficiencies and
reduced inventories, and that the restructuring will provide a stronger base
to improve the Company's financial performance and restore shareholder value.

KEY INITIATIVES

The key restructuring initiatives were:

o A restructure of the management team, the appointment of a new Chief
Executive Officer, Peter Thomas, and the introduction of new internal
reporting initiatives within the Company;
o Rationalisation and consolidation of all woollen yarn manufacturing
to New Zealand, resulting in the closure of the Braybrook (Melbourne) yarn
plant. This reduced costs and improved efficiency;
o Operations at the Christchurch woven carpet plant were aligned to the
Company's strategy to service the niche sectors of the woven carpet market
where Feltex remains most competitive; and
o The reorganisation of the Company's sales and marketing divisions in
Australia and New Zealand.

The above initiatives resulted in total redundancies of 302 employees.

Further, it was noted in the 2005 Annual Report that the Company had
implemented a programme aimed at reducing inventory by $10 million. This
required the continuation of reduced production levels at all plants, which
resulted in adverse manufacturing variances during the first half of the 2006
financial year, as well as the last quarter of the 2005 financial year. The
actual reduction in inventory achieved was $12.5 million.
Accordingly, when assessing the financial and operating performance of the
first six months of financial year 2006 (six months ended December 2005), the
Board has considered the period from three perspectives:

1. The actual result according to the published statutory interim
financial statements.
2. The result for the period when "normalised" for the impact to date of
improvements from the various restructuring initiatives that have been, and
are being, implemented; the reversal of one-off items incurred in the period,
and the impact to date of profit improvement plans initiated during the
period.
3. The comparison of the result according to points 1 and 2 above
against the prior corresponding period in 2005, which was a strong profit
period achieved during a period of strong economic growth, high levels of
consumer confidence and good commercial and residential new building and
renovation data. The Board also looked at the comparison to the second half
of the 2005 financial year (six months ended June 2005), when conditions in
the market place were more consistent with those experienced in the period
under review.

INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL REPORTING STANDARDS

Further, during this financial period, Feltex has adopted the new
International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The financial statements
for the year ended June 2005, and results for the two half-yearly periods of
the 2005 financial year have been restated in accordance with IFRS. A full
reconciliation is included in the Interim Report.

ACTUAL RESULT FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED DECEMBER 2005

Sales Performance

Compar

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke


(Edited on Snipers advice. Apologies to Saunders in advance if he is offended by the comment)



Why anyone would listen to a washed up broker that spends half his work time on web forums is beyond me. Business must be really slow for poor Sniper[8D]

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion
HD, what's your background?


Haven't you worked that out yet belg

He's singing your tune .... so you must pay attention mate

[Pennywise]

No, just Jolly again and his strange obsession with FTX even though he holds zero[?][:o)]

[GTM 3442]

Hi.

I've been on holiday.

Has "stuff" happened yet ?

[winner69]

Don't know whether to laugh or cry at this comment on Sleepyheads dealinfo message board

'.I never even realised that they owed so much to the ANZ-I am still don't know the answer to this and if you could enlighten me that much appreciated ..Maybe it was my fault not reading the prospectus (ie reading between the lines as to what they company was really like) Oh well have a good day'

Another one of those 'mum and dads' sucked in eh

If all those posting on the message have enough votes between them GH can kiss Feltex goodbye ... the emotion and the passion is so high even a higher bid won't change the mind of those who want to f*** GH

Sleepyhead probably find it hard to jsutify a deal ... so FTX goes broke .... and shareholders zilch I think .... and alas no recovery to gain frim NEW money .... never mind

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion
IMHO there has been a 'orchestrated programme to deceive the average investor'.



and if we read your posts over the last few months, it was you in the thick of it all, scheming & rubbing your greedy hands together with glee over the stupid mums and dads selling to the mighty winking Belg who was going to make a killing.

you just look a fool and a hypocrite.

and most have come to expect nothing more from you...

don't feel the least bit sorry if you lose the lot and I am sure many would feel that way after your posturing on this thread.

[xx(]

[Toddy]

Belgarion

Your last post is exactly why forum contributors should not be harping on about the amount of time it is taking NZO to bring the PRCC float to the market. The longer NZO waits the more informed the prosectus will be. Then if they missed the prospectus targets, the exact same people will then harp on about management misinforming the market.

A prospectus is not an exact science but a projection. If the market outlook changes then the projection will change. Therefore the question is 'how could the FTX management and prospectus auditors get the market so wrong'.

Legal action is a long shot (IMO).

[minimoke]

I’m not so sure that FTX got the market wrong – after all GH and CAV aren’t in the same position that FTX finds itself. What FTX has got wrong is the management of their business.

For example if Magill was doing a good job they should have kept him on. If he was doing a poor job they should have given him a chance to improve and then fire him without any golden handshake. The FTX Board obviously has a culture of rewarding incompetence so it should be of no surprise debt ballooned to reward those who added not a jot to shareholder value.

If the sales team wasn’t generating sales – that is a reflection of the sales team not the market. If the finance team don’t know where to put certain entries in their reporting, that is not a reflection of the market. If GH want a free peak at the inside of FTX and Saunders says “Hey, lets give you a shot at getting another mil to recoup your previous losses” good luck to GH, but don’t blame the market.

Time to end the excuses and for the Board to lead from the front. They should accept they didn’t have the competence to provide the governance a business like FTX needed. Fall on your swords guys and don’t take any handouts for your shoddy efforts!

[The Doctor]

is there any African Safari on this year for the 'boy's'?[:o)]

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

As always ... the legislation will cost everyone ... Slef regulation would be better ...

"Serf regulation" maybe? ;)

[minimoke]

10 day countdown:

Last year FTX released its YE Audited Results on 24 August. With their improvements in the management structure no doubt reporting systems are better than they were so there should be no delay beyond 24 August 06 for releasing the YE results.

[Steve]

I'm picking that the announcement will be made on the last possible day this time round...

[D_Pick]

The market appears to prefer a 12 cent minimum offer rather than GH's 12 cent maximum offer

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Steve

I'm picking that the announcement will be made on the last possible day this time round...



Full year result will be so boring .... they have already told us what the 'normalised' result is .... add in the 'abnormals' they have already told us about ..... and sniper has already told you the result .... but ptobably a few more writedowns but they will try to avoid those at all costs ... so boring boring

But belg will be excited because they will be AUDITED

Tim and Peter will give us an update on trading since June 30th .... might be positive but who would believe that .... but then they wouldn't want it to be too positive would they


Look forward to another laugh anyway

[D_Pick]

The FY accounts will be prepared using IFRS rules which I'm expecting will have a major effect on the carrying value of FTX's goodwill. Also interested in the fair value of inventory at year end. How can you say that will be boring winner?

I'm excited about the prospect of doing due diligence on the Annual Report, but not as excited as I would be if I had a $1m option for <s>nothing</s> researching a competitors business.

[hairdresser]

Is the value of FTX greater than zero?

I’ve used fairly conservative assumptions. If you change them the general conclusions remain the same.
I’ve ignored all of the one off costs. If you want to include them take them off the market cap at the end.
I’ve excluded goodwill as well

Current Position
Sustainable NPAT of $7.5m with current funding structure
Interest expense $120m x .08 = $9. 6m
Depreciation $5m pa and matches fixed asset replacement over time
Goodwill and one off expenses are ignored
EPS = $7.5/150 = 5.0c [but the bank is unhappy]
I wouldn’t offer a value on the company under this scenario as the position is clearly unsustainable. Good luck to the independent advisors.

Turners Offer
$40m of new capital [through the issue of 250m preference shares or 62.5% of company valued at 16c per share]
$20m of bank debt reduced through asset sales
NPAT rises to $10.2m [due to reduction in interest expense]
EPS decreases to 2.6c [but the bank is happy]
The return on Turners $40m investment would be [$10.2m x 62.5%] = $6.4m, $6.4m /40 = 16%.
Value 400m x 0.16c = $56m
WACC = 11.5%
EBIT to bank interest cover = 2.6x
EBITDA to total debt 60/25 = 2.4x

This looks reasonably good for all parties

I believe this is a little conservative and the value is still comes out greater than zero!

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by D_Pick

The FY accounts will be prepared using IFRS rules which I'm expecting will have a major effect on the carrying value of FTX's goodwill. Also interested in the fair value of inventory at year end. How can you say that will be boring winner?

I'm excited about the prospect of doing due diligence on the Annual Report, but not as excited as I would be if I had a $1m option for <s>nothing</s> researching a competitors business.


Goodwill / stock valuations / employee provisions have already been signalled by many as likely contenders for writedowns ...ut hell bells if they write too much off doesn't it devaoue Feltex even more .... and make even Hirsts offer look generous

The main number that will be interesting is what they report as operating cash flow ... the 'official' number as Belg says.

BUT june 30 was some time ago ... whats happened since is the question

Hirst / Turners making their own assessment I guess

[winner69]

Turner's guys in Melbourne churning over Feltex ... 70% plus of activity in OZ .... having breakfast and they read this in the morning paper

With underlying inflation high and apparently rising, Mr Costello told reporters yesterday that the country faced a "great" risk of repeating the economic mess that followed the 1970s oil shocks.

That'll send shivers up their spine .... taking on a mess .... still with substantial debt .... and their biggest market heading to a 'economic mess'

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Turner's guys in Melbourne churning over Feltex ... 70% plus of activity in OZ .... having breakfast and they read this in the morning paper

With underlying inflation high and apparently rising, Mr Costello told reporters yesterday that the country faced a "great" risk of repeating the economic mess that followed the 1970s oil shocks.

That'll send shivers up their spine .... taking on a mess .... still with substantial debt .... and their biggest market heading to a 'economic mess'






THAT is crap and FEAR SAY.. [8D]

[Pennywise]

HD said: "Turners Offer
$40m of new capital [through the issue of 250m preference shares or 62.5% of company valued at 16c per share]
$20m of bank debt reduced through asset sales
NPAT rises to $10.2m [due to reduction in interest expense]
EPS decreases to 2.6c [but the bank is happy]
The return on Turners $40m investment would be [$10.2m x 62.5%] = $6.4m, $6.4m /40 = 16%.
Value 400m x 0.16c = $56m
WACC = 11.5%
EBIT to bank interest cover = 2.6x
EBITDA to total debt 60/25 = 2.4x

This looks reasonably good for all parties

I believe this is a little conservative and the value is still comes out greater than zero!"


1. why would the preference shares be 33% above market value?
2. What assets could they sell for $20m and have no effect on earnings? (if this was so easy, surely it would have been done before submitting to GH offer)

[Toddy]

Pennywise

There is an article on Stuff about FTX selling and leasing back the workshops. So I guess that is where the $20m will come from.

[J R Ewing]

quote:Originally posted by Toddy

Pennywise

There is an article on Stuff about FTX selling and leasing back the workshops. So I guess that is where the $20m will come from.




Or in layman's terms - smoke and mirrors [}:)]

A common methodology of valuing a business is:

(Value as a going concern) - debt = Value of the business

So by selling $20 million of assets to repay debt you can increase the value of the business by $20 million - thus disproving the old adage about there being no such thing as a free lunch ;)

[PGL]

quote:Originally posted by J R Ewing


quote:Originally posted by Toddy

Pennywise

There is an article on Stuff about FTX selling and leasing back the workshops. So I guess that is where the $20m will come from.




Or in layman's terms - smoke and mirrors [}:)]

A common methodology of valuing a business is:

(Value as a going concern) - debt = Value of the business

So by selling $20 million of assets to repay debt you can increase the value of the business by $20 million - thus disproving the old adage about there being no such thing as a free lunch ;)


JR,

Don't forget to deduct the lease cost that you pay to the new ownerof the building that you have just sold - ie the sale reduces the value of the business as going concern by the appropriate multiple of the lease cost

Still no such thing as a free lunch - sorry!

[J R Ewing]

PGL,

So you mean the EPS will be lower than 2.6 cps then :(

Still, the $20 mill is all grist to the mill as far as the bank is concerned I suppose.

[hairdresser]

1. Selling underutilised assets does increase the value of the business.

I'm pretty sure that $20m {or any money] earning 0% or giving negative returns vs paying off bank debt would reduce interest expense and allow shareholders to get a greater return. I would prefer FTX to reinvest any surplus funds in projects targeting a return greater than their current cost of capital, but that would depend on the comfort of the bank.

2. Current owners are at an information disadvantage

As far as I am aware the only people who have the full story ie management accounts are:
GH
Turners
The Bank
FTX directors

Be assured that the first 3 will only act in thier own interests.

The current low share price may refelct the information imbalance between the nformed parties and the market. Maybe not, you have to trust that the directors to act in your best interests.

3. If either GH or Turners try to acquire FTX through on market trades the share price would increase significantly. They have a much better chance of a cheap buy at the September meeting.

3. If FTX is required to find an additional $20m to satisfy the bank this could raise this through a combination of the following:

a) cashflow
b) asset sales
c) mezz debt
d) rights issue

4. There are many options for funding FTX that value the company greater more than zero.

[PGL]

Hairdresser, quite right, selling an under-utilised asset would increase the value of the business. However selling an asset that you do use and leasing it back should be at best neutral to the value of the business.

JR

Enterprise value is generally calculated from some multiple of EBIT so increasing lease costs will reduce ebit and hence reduce enterprise value - the reduction in interest costs won't affect the enterprise value since enterprise value is independent of funding costs.

[kura]

As someone rightly pointed out a few pages back, do you really expect selling assets to be neutral to EBIT ? Given that FTX has had the "private equity makeover" only a few years back ? Private equity owners would have ruthlessly sold off any underutilised assets, as well as other tricks to make prospectus numbers look better (ie deferring necessary capex )

[hairdresser]

Good point about EBIT multiple valuation. This is OK for companies with low volatilty or stable track records. You can apply the industry average multiple come up with a reasonable number.

However the value of the firm is not independent of the funding.

Consider this firm

Ungeared
Shares on issue 100m
Industry EBIT multiple 6x
EBIT $10m
Interest $0m
NPBT $10m
Tax $3.7m
NPAT $6.7m
Valuation $60m or 60c per share
ROE 11.2%

Directors decide to take on debt with 40% gearing ie $28m @7% and pay this out to the shareholders.

New numbers and valuation

Share on issue 100m
EBIT $10m
Interest 2.0m
NPBT $8.0m
Tax $2.6m
NPAT $5.4m

What will the value be now?
A valuation on EBIT of 6x is still $60m but the shareholders have got just got paid $28m...

If owners are still happy with an 11.2% return the value of the firm would be $51m. I would be happy with this.


Undegeared $6.7m/11.2% = $60m + no cash = $60m

Geared $5.4m/11.2% = $51m + $28m cash = $79m

You could argue that taking on gearing of 40% would increase the risk and owners would now want more than an 11.2% return.
But either way you are still in the money.

This is why undergeared firms are takevoer targets. A recent example is BCA.

Regarding FTX there has been talk of valuing FTX ungeared. This will lead to a lower valuation which may suit some people. The purchasers would definitley like the current owners to consider valution methods which give low valuations.

[Pennywise]

well as far as I can see, you plucked $20m out of thin air HD...
that was my main point.

still does not answer what actual assets?

and they would have zero effect after sale?


rubbish

[PGL]

Hairdresser,

The value of the two companies in your example would be identical according to:

Value = (EBIT*6)-Debt.

The point to note is that using this valuation method, the debt servicing cost does not affect the value of the business. The value is however affected by the amount of debt being carried at a particular time.

[hairdresser]

This may help. If you never repay the debt or if the repayment is along way out the benefit of $28m right now is more apparent.

The current value of $28m in 10 years discounted at 7%= 28/(1.07)^10 = $14m

In 20 years = $7m value

In 30 years who cares

In the real world firms usually maintain their gearing ratios and as they grow their debt levels grow as well. So while old debt is repaid there is new debt taking its place.

For poor old FTX, they got loaded up with debt had a bad run with their forecasting dept and now need to repay some debt.

However, I believe FTX should be valued using debt levels appropriate to their position, ie the same way we value every other company.

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by hairdresser
For poor old FTX, they got loaded up with debt had a bad run with their forecasting dept and now need to repay some debt.




:D:D:D good one :D:D:D

[Toddy]

Anyone listening to these guys anymore! I thought Forbar would be recommending FTX at these bargain levels to be consistent with all of their prior reports.. But no, FTX now comes under the 'over valued' category.

Forsythe Barr: NZX overvalued


Aug 16, 2006

Investment house Forsyth Barr says the local sharemarket is so overvalued that it is recommending only six stocks for its clients to buy into.


It says 75% of companies on the New Zealand Exchange are trading ahead of their historic valuations.


Forsyth Barr has put the "buy" label on Delegats, Fletcher Building, Sky City, Sky TV, Tourism Holdings and Tower.


Analyst Guy Hallwright says traders usually value stocks ahead of their share price, but the share prices have come up so high that the valuation gap has closed.


Source: RNZ

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

This may help. If you never repay the debt or if the repayment is along way out the benefit of $28m right now is more apparent.

The current value of $28m in 10 years discounted at 7%= 28/(1.07)^10 = $14m

In 20 years = $7m value

In 30 years who cares

In the real world firms usually maintain their gearing ratios and as they grow their debt levels grow as well. So while old debt is repaid there is new debt taking its place.

For poor old FTX, they got loaded up with debt had a bad run with their forecasting dept and now need to repay some debt.

However, I believe FTX should be valued using debt levels appropriate to their position, ie the same way we value every other company.


I don't take issue with your calculations Hairdresser, but merely with your logic behind the calculations, as it is fair enough to value the principle at half it's face value in 10 years time, however this assumes the loan is free of interest, however I've yet to hear of any bank making such loans (would really love to hear of any that do !!!) However most loans would also contain a provision to review the rate of interest as the economic climate changes.

If I had a $100K mortgage for 20 years (average time = 10 years) would you really expect bank to be happy if I offered my bank $50K to settle my mortgage ? They are a profit making business, like any other, after all.

Hey Toddy, according to the "anti Forbar" logic FTX must be a buy now !!!

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by kura

If I had a $100K mortgage for 20 years (average time = 10 years) would you really expect bank to be happy if I offered my bank $50K to settle my mortgage ? They are a profit making business, like any other, after all.


The hog doesn't believe you are drawing a valid comparison. However, in your scenario, if the bank were aware that you were about to be declared bankrupt beause you had lost the ability to meet your mortgage payments and had no other assets, they might well take $50k in cash, depending on how much they could get from forcing you to sell your property.

[kura]

Nope, I dissagree muddy & smelly one, why you may reasonably ask ?
- The hairy one, was implying that any long term loan was automatically worth much less than the loans face value. I was merely pointing out the fallacy in that arguement.
- Certainly, if I had negative equity in the secured asset, and no other assets, you would expect the bank to act in a rational way, and accept a lesser payment from a related party, in consideration for not bankrupting me.
- In the case of FTX the enterprise value of the bizz is marginally more than debt (exact amount uncertain, per GH offer) so my comparison is still valid.

Cheers

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

Is the value of FTX greater than zero?

Current Position
Sustainable NPAT of $7.5m with current funding structure
Interest expense $120m x .08 = $9. 6m
Depreciation $5m pa and matches fixed asset replacement over time
Goodwill and one off expenses are ignored
EPS = $7.5/150 = 5.0c [but the bank is unhappy]



How did u get sustainable NPAT of $7.5m?

FTX has stated that normalised EBITDA was $20m to $21m. Let's call it $21m.

EBITDA = $21m less depreciation of $6m = EBIT of $15m.
Interest = $128m @ 8.0% = $10m.
So NPBT = $5m.

BUT earnings include $5.3m of subsidy so real earnings &lt;$0m.

Love to see how you got your $7.5m.

Found the numbers in one of your customers' hair? ;)

[winner69]

Hang that man who dare say this on the sleepyhead message board

while I sympathise with all of the people involved in this, they really are dreaming about recouping their money. It is almost laughable.

http://www.dealinfo.co.nz/feltex/messageboard.htm

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

a great first post hairdresser. I did something simliar, hence my saying that it's a very, very sweet deal for GH.



now you can understand why Belgee loves his hairdresser...[:X][:X][:X]

both very good with the FUDGE:D

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by kura

Nope, I dissagree muddy & smelly one, why you may reasonably ask ?
- The hairy one, was implying that any long term loan was automatically worth much less than the loans face value. I was merely pointing out the fallacy in that arguement.
- Certainly, if I had negative equity in the secured asset, and no other assets, you would expect the bank to act in a rational way, and accept a lesser payment from a related party, in consideration for not bankrupting me.
- In the case of FTX the enterprise value of the bizz is marginally more than debt (exact amount uncertain, per GH offer) so my comparison is still valid.

Cheers


Thanks Kura for the clarification.

Your use of the term "marginally" is at the crux of the matter here - there are some who would question the "enterprise value" of FTX, given the likely tightening of the construction market over the coming years.

Also, as Rumsfeld* noted, there are the unknown unknowns ... that is, things that you don't know that you are unaware of. That's why everybody is clammering to do their DD before they nail their offers to the wall.

* The hog is no fan of Rumsfeld or his ilk but he says some amusing things sometimes.

[winner69]

NBR today great story ....Secutrities Commission gave permission for the real beneficiaries of floating Feltex to remain undisclosed

Great comment "It was like giving Ned Kelly free rein of the Melbourne Mint for two days"

And NBR has Thomas in their sights .... watch this space

[Pennywise]

and Belg would be perfect for the accountant role as "Fudge"...the spreadsheet genius:D

[winner69]

Another sad story from the Sleepyhead message board

I am confused at how a company that floats at $1.70 with a large initial debt upon listing and overall since listing does not actually lose any money ..... has a net asset backing of aprox 27c per share, is now trading profitably with a forecasted trading profit for six months to june2006– can now be deemed to be more or less worthless (noting even if you fully paid the 128 million which equates to 86cps debt at the float price it still leaves a IPO value of 84cps) and would appreciate another shareholder or someone in the know to comment on these points.

Whose going to be brave enough to tell this poor shareholder that most of his $1.70 went overseas to some unnamed investors .... not into Feltex's bank account

Sad really

[Steve]

It appears that more dirt is escaping from under the carpet...
Feltex: on sick list pre-float? (http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3770831a13,00.html)
ANZ Bank may have viewed Feltex as a distressed borrower at the time of its sharemarket float in 2004, casting doubt on its portrayal as a quality business at the time.

[Pennywise]

The silent from the Belgs, HDs and Jollys (well forgivable now)is deafening;)

Is silence golden?

or just absolutely been trashed to death and no more news at all.

[winner69]

Just had another glance through the IPO prospectus

Can't understand wht all the fuss is about .... most of things mentioned on pages 127-131 have happened ... almost exactly as forecasted (or was it projected) .... no misleading statements or anything like a misrepresentation on those pages.

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by Pennywise

The silent from the Belgs, HDs and Jollys (well forgivable now)is deafening;)

Is silence golden?

or just absolutely been trashed to death and no more news at all.

I think Belg has (wisely) backed off this thread after the damage he has caused and the ridicule he has suffered over the "golden sprreadsheet" and his new law of maths that nobody else can understand

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Actually BB, there is no new information ... therefore bugg1r all to say about anything ...

I could, as you and redfox and pennywise do, post vacuous nonsense ... but then i'd be as foolish as you ...

Opps ... :D

many of us hoped you would pull your head in after your recent banning, allthough more sensible at first you have quickly descended into drunken diatribe again, it is really quite sad that you would seem to have nothing positive to say ........... ever.

[Pennywise]

let the fool continue, he has only ever proven time and time again that he should stick to the property market only

His time in stocks and politics is the joke of all jokes ever seen in the existance of sharetrader

shall we list all his "calls"?;)

too too many, not enough time, to quote the golden spreadsheet genius himself.

quite fantastic holes these "legends" learn to dig:D

[redfox1]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Pheadrus ... If you have a moment, your thoughts would be appreciated ... (I have speculative $$$ burning a hole in my pcoket.) Thanks.

Wow!! this is a five star Legend hinting to the new players
" We can take this hill " the "Feltex Ramper" was never charged.

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

I could, as you and redfox and pennywise do, post vacuous nonsense ... but then i'd be as foolish as you ...


Wow Redfox, barely 10 posts and you already raise Belgarion's ire.

We're not worthy!!!!!

[winner69]

Hirst taking an inordinate amount of time to do due diligence is not a good sign ..... finding out too many things that don't guite add up I say

And reading between the lines the Turners don't really know know if they want to proceed or not

And all the time the immediate outlook for the likes of carpet manufacturers gets more gloomy

More opportunities to average down Belg

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Hirst taking an inordinate amount of time to do due diligence is not a good sign ..... finding out too many things that don't guite add up I say

And reading between the lines the Turners don't really know know if they want to proceed or not

And all the time the immediate outlook for the likes of carpet manufacturers gets more gloomy

More opportunities to average down Belg




Average down? He's waiting for FTX to hit 2 cents and then, the spreadsheet genius will declare his average entry price to be 1 cent.

:D:D:D

It's nice to know that the clown profession is alive and kicking in the person of the spreadsheet genius.

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

w69, I don't think the 'delay' means anything. Nobdoies going to move until the FY accounts are in. Agree that the Turner communique doesn't ooze confidence. That said, I expect that both GH and Turners will be playing their cards close to their chests at this time. Its a waiting game ... Sniper me ol' mate ... will be buying again sub 10 cents.



:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

piss1ng myself....ROTFLMAO

"NOB DOIES"

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by sniper


quote:Originally posted by winner69

Hirst taking an inordinate amount of time to do due diligence is not a good sign ..... finding out too many things that don't guite add up I say

And reading between the lines the Turners don't really know know if they want to proceed or not

And all the time the immediate outlook for the likes of carpet manufacturers gets more gloomy

More opportunities to average down Belg




Average down? He's waiting for FTX to hit 2 cents and then, the spreadsheet genius will declare his average entry price to be 1 cent.

:D:D:D

It's nice to know that the clown profession is alive and kicking in the person of the spreadsheet genius.



I think FTX might yet go into receivership. S/P of 0 cents will surely help with the averaging. :D

[kura]

Even with a share price of 0 cents, I'm sure we will be enlightened as to how a tidy gain was eventually made, but then again we may have simply got the numerator and denominator the wrong way round in our spreadsheet formula ? I've done that before !

[Pennywise]

more and more people wanting a copy of the "golden spreadsheet" I see:D

could you please put everyone out of their misery and supply some real figures Belgarion?
No one seems to believe you!...surprised?

...as you have demanded from others--FACTS and REAL FIGURES Belg, too busy?;)

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by kura

Even with a share price of 0 cents,

Trusting ForBrr, they still have FTX as a HOLD so SP surely couldn't hit 0.0

[winner69]

Maybe Feltex should buy one of these magical computers ... and let Belg run it!

Excerpts re article on API on ther ASX

As widely reported, API announced it has lost $17 million – half of its profit. Apparently the money has just slipped into a crack between different computer systems. It would never have happened if they'd stuck with the abacus.

There's also a little matter of CEO Jeff Sher no longer being with the company, but API chairman Peter Robinson is not explaining either loss in a form that makes any sense – and he effectively admits it. Pete hopes to be able to tell shareholders something about what's happening with their company by the AGM next month. At present, he says he doesn't know himself.

API shares have been suspended from trading since 11 July and will no doubt be caned if they resume on Thursday after the publication of some heavily qualified accounts.

The amazing thing is that API staff and outside forensic accountants have been crawling over the computer systems for well over a month now trying to understand what's happened to the missing $17 million. It seems there was $17 million extra profit in the bank under the old computer system, but when they switched to a new system, it was no longer there.

On the information so far supplied by API, the solution to their problem is obvious: Throw out the new computer system and keep using the old one – it obviously gives much better performance.

And that could be just the start. API has a brilliant opportunity to diversify out of drugs into accounting software. There must be hundreds of ASX-listed firms that would like to double their profit by using such a magical computer. The only problem might be obtaining the rights – I guess they might have to negotiate that with the estate of Ken Lay.

[Pennywise]

Belg still believes W69 is his mate;)

He has been subtlely taking the piss out of Belg for months and Belg hasn't even cottoned on yet...

I think the above post makes it a little more obvious now W69

Do ya tink he might get it now:D

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Pennywise

Belg still believes W69 is his mate;)

He has been subtlely taking the piss out of Belg for months and Belg hasn't even cottoned on yet...

I think the above post makes it a little more obvious now W69

Do ya tink he might get it now:D


Pennywise ... I would never take the piss out of belg .... he's my mate ..... sometimes we agree, sometimes we don't ....

Even though we both keep a close eye on the down and outs our approach is different .... I hold back and wait for the opportunity to make money on any turnaround ... when I understand the new rules of the game .... belg likes to become involved in the game very early on.

Belg did say a few weeks he didn't like (or approve) of my approach .... sort of accusing me of being a greedy vulture or something like that .... but i can live with that coming from my mate

[Pennywise]

:D

yes, that would be typical of Belg, suggesting someone was a greedy vulture because he himself shot off all cocked too early...all the while, rubbing hands with glee and hoping more Ma and Pa investors would sell to the Legend himself and his grand pyramid scheme. LOL

still, W69, your very first post would suggest you almost shot off your order too early as well?

Maybe you are closer to Belg than I had imagined[:I]

Are you really going to enter at some stage or did you already? I understand you are waiting for a more certain outcome before doing anything...but still somewhat keen?

For me, it stinks.. and Belg asked me what I would do ages ago when FTX was actually worth something (55-60c range).
I told him to forget it and send his NZD to AUD or JPY. That's history already... 15-20% currency gains VS a further 80% decline in FTX value.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Took the dividend and the 3 cents SP increase

Not bad for 3 weeks work but was hoping for a bit more

I feel that FTX well hang around this mark for a while now .... nothing exciting on the horizon to give it a push


Pennywise ... the original title of this thread was 'Feltex .. Ramp #3' .... following sniper with his original 2 ramps ... yeah I am snipers mate as well

Made a few bob on that trade as above

Never had any more Feltex since ..... fundamentals said STAY AWAY ......but always keen on down and outs that might have a good turnaround story .... lots of money in these if you pick them right .... Orica / Brambles / Tower / Baycorp just to name a few

Feltex probably is beyond redemption .... .... but if somebody came along and organised a decent recapitalisation program .... not paying off half the debt a lot more ... and showed they had some decent plans than I will look at closely

Good fun in the meantime though

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke

10 day countdown:

Last year FTX released its YE Audited Results on 24 August. With their improvements in the management structure no doubt reporting systems are better than they were so there should be no delay beyond 24 August 06 for releasing the YE results.

Well Saunders and Thomas never fail to disappoint. After all the supposedly beneficial and costly changes to the management structure obviously no improvement in their financial reporting systems.

Mind you, perhaps I should cut a little slack with the NZIFRS changes. It looks like YE results aren’t going to come out any earlier than last year but it’s a concern they can’t even get a preliminary announcement out by now. One day to go to see if they can equal last years delivery – or are they just going to take their time to dress up what could possibly be a result worse than the market is already anticipating.

No doubt the Waiver will be used to the max but the closer to 13 Sept FTX gets the more room there will be for speculation and I doubt the delays will build confidence. But this might just be part of a smoke and mirrors strategy to either make the GH offer look more attractive or give GH an opportunity to revise its offer downwards.

It also of course gives shareholders even less time to fully digest both the annual results and GH/Turner proposal by the September special meeting. Shareholders under pressure might then be even more inclined to accept a lower offer if the Turner proposal doesn’t eventuate.

Now might be a good time to be asking for the conditions under which departing directors get their golden handshakes as perhaps part of the strategy might be steering any proposals towards these conditions – pure speculation of course!.

[COLIN]

I would imagine there will be a lot of head-scratching and hand-wringing going on with their auditors - can they be sure of endorsing "going concern" valuations?

[hesiod]

Feels to me like they are now playing chicken with the ANZ. After all GH can't lose here. FTX either comes to them or goes belly up and dissapears. At the end of the day I suspect they don't see the Turners' offer as a threat, as retail is getting tougher and margins slimmer. Even if Turners' get it they'll have a hell of a job rescuing it. Ergo still likely to dissappear in 6 -18 months.

[winner69]

One of the better posts on the Sleepyhead message board

Allowing existing shareholders to participate in the future benefits of the last two years restructuring efforts is a must condition for any offer to have my support as a shareholder....... This is a classic turnaround opportunity for an iconic brand. Grab it with both hands.

.....but still shows that emotional attachment that existing shareholders have for Feltex .... rather lose the rest of what my shares are worth than give Feltex to the enemy sort of logic.

Never mind ... at least that poster did say a turn around could happen .... but it needs more than a miserable $30m of NEW capital ... meaning essentially FTX shares will be heavily diluted .... but what a choice - 1) zilch 20 something from zilch to 12cents or 3) pump in heaps more and wait decades to get back to you were not that long ago.

Yes poster .... if there is a turnaround to come ... I might grab it with both hands ... and prosper

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Its a plan w69 ... Problem could be that trade is so slim that buying any quantity might prove difficult. Depends how a rights issue is structured. Those not taking up their rights being gobbled up by an underwriter ;). 1 for 1 at 20c would invoke the 'its only 20 cents' type of mentality and quite a few pick up their rights. We'll see soon ...


.... so a 2:1 at 10 cents would be even more 'attractive' ... surely 'its only 10 cents' is less painful than 'its only 20 cents'

.... but then again even then sombody has to pump $30M cash in first

Will be interesting ... hope it works out for you

[barnsley bill]

By NZPA
Friday 25th August 2006

Feltex shares were halted moments before the Securities Commission released its decision clearing the carpet marker of prospectus irregularities.

The commission said a review of the troubled company's 2004 prospectus for its share float had concluded it was not "misleading" and had not breached securities laws.

Feltex, which floated at $1.70 a share, is heavily in debt and is the subject of a Australian takeover bid which would offer a maximum of 12c a share.

Its dramatic fall in value has placed Feltex's managers in the firing line, particularly over the decision to go public.

The commission said it gained "extensive evidence" from relevant parties.

It reviewed the disclosure of projected and historical financial information, directors' and vendor's interests, and any breach of banking covenants.

It considered the financial project ions were consistent with the assumptions presented.

It also examined whether the assumptions were "reasonable" by New Zealand accounting standard requirements and whether the forecasts in the prospectus "properly reflected the risks involved".

Another factor the commission looked into was whether there was any breach of banking covenants that should have been disclosed, but it found no evidence of a breach.

The commission said it had not considered whether Feltex had complied with the Companies Act, nor directors' duties more generally, because they were beyond the commission's jurisdiction.

However, it would continue to investigate continuous disclosure and financial reporting issues for the period subsequent to Feltex's earnings downgrade announcement on April 1 last year.

On that day, Feltex shares slumped from $1.50 to 99c after the company warned that its full year profit could be up to $9 million below previous forecasts, due to a tougher sales environment in Australia and New Zealand.

The announcement wiped some $76 million off Feltex's value.

Trading in Feltex shares has resumed, with the shares virtually static at 11.3c.

oh well i guess the prospectus was okay then.....

The losers will have to find somebody else to blame now

[lambton]

The outcome was to be expected. [}:)]

[beacon]

Yes, but it reflects terribly on NZX, its members and the banking system. It also makes the integrity of bodies like Sec Com questionable. The conclusions of this investigation mock the common investor. One wonders what due diligence now means. Kiwis vote with feet, and the ramifications will be felt by the markets.

[Lizard]

So the verdict is that many intelligent and reputable and qualified people were mislead by something that was not misleading.....

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard

So the verdict is that many intelligent and reputable and qualified people were mislead by something that was not misleading.....


first common sense post on here for a while

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard

So the verdict is that many intelligent and reputable and qualified people were mislead by something that was not misleading.....

Just because many intelligent, reputable and qualified people were mislead by something that was not misleading, should the whole matter be called a farce?
Feltex farce continues with ruling (http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3777894a13,00.html)
"The conduct of the Feltex float was pure as the driven snow."

[sniper]

There should also be a Securities Commission inquiry into why investors made so much money from the IPOs of AIA, PPL and FRE.
it is totally unacceptable that the promotors can get it so wrong. ;)

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by sniper

There should also be a Securities Commission inquiry into why investors made so much money from the IPOs of AIA, PPL and FRE.
it is totally unacceptable that the promotors can get it so wrong. ;)


I agree with Sniper's sentiments.

Lets have a Government-backed capital guarantee for all equity investments - better still, make that a capital guarantee plus 10% per annum. And anything above 10% p.a. must go back to the Government. After all, we can't have any astute investors making anything more than anyone else, can we. Karl Marx wouldn't like that.[:p]

Too many New Zealanders still have this "nanny-State mentality". Perhaps they really would prefer communism.

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion
So was it something else? Good question ... A question, given NZX's toothless governance, is perhaps best answered by a Court of Enquiry. Quite frankly ... If other NZX listed companies don't put pressure on the Govt and NZX to pursue an investigation with the utmost vigour ... I think it brings the whole market NZ Share market into disrepute. Another extreme Belgarion view? Perhaps. Ask the mums and dads who spent their hard earned savings ... almost certainly recommended by Brokers and Investment Companies ... on FTX ... I suspect that it would be completely reasonable on their part that their was some oversight by the NZ Govt that, at the very least, ensured that directors and senior company officers were investigated for such a wanton destruction of shareholder value ... Oz Govt did with HIH ... The same MUST happen in NZ.

Given the connections of the parties between the IPO and the current offer ... I think a government inquiry is completely justified.

And for the NZ govt (and the NZX) not to investigate is a clear case of a dereliction of duty. Both govt and the NZX have the power and should exercise it.
Ordinary NZ'ers have been suckered by this deal that started 2 years ago. Two years in corp speak is a short time for a swindle. It is usually longer.

Over 200 million, $200,000,000, of ordinary people's hard earned cash has been taken from them, perhaps stolen from them, under very, very, very dubious circumstances ... Govt enquiry? Methinks so!
I can live with a 100K loss and simply put it down to expirience ... For ordinary investors who bought a household name they thought they could trust? ... From investment advisers they thought they could trust? ... from Directors and Senior Company Officiers they thought they could trust? ... It simply brings the whole direct investment industry into disrepute!

Joking aside ... A Govt led enquiry is completely justified. A justifiable spend of taxpayer's money to ensure lessons are learnt and any 'incompetences' is exposed ... And lessons will be learnt.



dead right Colin and Sniper, and look who squawked loudest when shat hit fan

it is just so hypocritical, it's laughable.

[winner69]

Yeah I know they said end of September but they must be getting a little bit titchy about whats happening

Due diligence likely to turn Turners off .... shareholders go tell Hirst go and jump ... and ANZ still left with their mountain of debt

Worried faces in Collins St

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Yeah I know they said end of September but they must be getting a little bit titchy about whats happening

Due diligence likely to turn Turners off .... shareholders go tell Hirst go and jump ... and ANZ still left with their mountain of debt

Worried faces in Collins St



"Hi ho hi ho how low can the share price go?
A snip snip here and a cut back there,
its off to receivership, we go".

[8D]

[winner69]

Bit the paper this morning saying Turners will decide this week what to do ...... need to address a few issues that came up doing the due diligence .... whatever that means

FTX shareprice going ballistic today .... so a pretty good offer coming would be an indication ..... UNLESS BELG IS AVERAGING UP

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by winner69


FTX shareprice going ballistic today ....

8 trades worth $12,000 ???

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke


quote:Originally posted by winner69


FTX shareprice going ballistic today ....

8 trades worth $12,000 ???



... must be belg then

[evedder]

you have to laugh at the person who has some for sale at $1.00. I think they are dreaming...

[Pennywise]

Probably was Belg averaging down to 8c...just hasn't checked his golden spreadsheet yet...

all those accounts and brokers you know...phewww

[peat]

The Commerce Commission has given the green light for
Godfrey Hirst NZ Limited to acquire Feltex. Commission
Chair Paula Rebstock said that the Commission was
satisfied that the proposed acquisition would not have, or
would not be likely to have, the effect of substantially
lessening competition in any of the relevant markets.

[Steve]

Any thoughts on how 'mum & dad' will vote if this is the only option put forward?

After all, they haven't "lost" any $$$ unless they vote to accept the offer (per Mary Holm).

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

LOL. Nope, not me. You won't see any of my buys pushing the price up.

Just sitting back and waiting for some new info. When it comes - I'll either be laughing or getting outrageously drunk ... (now I come to think about it, I'll probably being doing quite a bit drinking either way [:I])


with an average of 13c vs current price, you would think Belg might be reducing his $200k exposure with such minimal loss available;)

I am sure more drinking will manage to produce even more fantastical figures pumping out from the golden spreadsheet machine.

any patents pending Belg?

[winner69]

gane on? from yahoo

STOCKS TO WATCH

* Troubled New Zealand carpet marker, Feltex Carpets Ltd. (NZX: FTX.nz) , jumped 14.3 percent to NZ$0.12 after private bedding company Sleepyhead said they would make a rival bid. [nWEL233563

[winner69]

There is a link to Turners latest update .... but it broke .... whats the gos belg

[Snow Leopard]

Todays news from the Turners (http://www.shersonwillis.com/pdf/010906.pdf)
"expect to present our full offer to the board on or before Friday 8 September"

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

The missive, while short, oozes positivity ... Damn! I can see one hell'a'va hangover coming ... (one way or the other [:I]).

W69 - no gos - only observation is that sleepy won't sweat much beating the current GH offer ...


Belg boozed already[xx(]

[minimoke]

Looks like a GH offer won’t be on the table in September! GH, judging by today’s announcement are not committed to any FTX purchase. It looks like they are after a bargain basement price and this isn’t going to be achieved if Turners put any offer on the table. What will the Board recommend now if Turners come up with an offer and there is nothing there from GH. And where is that Annual report and where are the other $19m in asset sales at? Shareholders set up to vote under duress without the necessary information to cast an informed vote coming up.

[Snow Leopard]

I believe this mornings announcement (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=FTX&E=NZSE&N=136350) can best be summarised thus.

ANZ: "Is GH buying this dog or not, we want to know now whether we are going to get our money"
GH: "We are not going to pushed around by any banker".

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

one notes the herald puts a completely different spin on the annoucement
ANZ pressures Feltex over Godfrey Hirst bid (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10399634)


you what? how so.

look Belg [aka Fudge], just show GH your spreadsheet, done deal:D

[kura]

Amazing thing to me is that share price is still trading around 12 cents !
The risk/reward type odds, just don't make sence to me.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

I wonder who the tosser was that came up with the wording. For C's sake ... why pretensious b.s.

PT - concur but would add that GH aren't showing any more of their hand until the Turners have shown theirs ... It will be interesting to see whether the Turners are working with ANZ or have brand new banking partner(s)

... and it would seem the bank ain't that fussed at present - I guess they have a better view of cashflow than us poor shareholders.

Poker at it's best ...

belge, I honestly believe your professed financial stake in this one has blinded you to the reality of the situation.

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by Pennywise

Here is the real deal...

1.Feltex chief executive Peter Thomas conceded shareholders, some of whom paid up to $1.70 for each share less than two years ago, could potentially get 0c a share once the variables of the deal were taken into account.

So somewhere between 0c and 12c and people are still paying 8c even with FTX track record of BS.

2.Chairman Tim Saunders said the board had yet to discus severance terms."[But] It is unlikely to be a significant amount."

Shareholders MAY get ZERO, but these guys will still walk with some

3.a fee of $750,000 if Feltex shareholders do not vote to accept the proposal.

If you choose not to support it, GH will take another 6%!! of current market cap for ZERO

4."However the board believed Feltex's debt levels are too high and, in the absence of alternatives, it should put the Godfrey Hirst proposal to shareholders."

"in the ABSENCE of ALTERNATIVES" meaning BANK won't wait any longer.

5.Tim has been reported "Tim Saunders said the board was faced with a choice of accepting the Hirst offer or putting the company into receivership because of its inability to service debt.

He means being [u]forced</u> by ANZ to put it into receivership


and still he trashes around trying to save the 8th wonder of the world that never was.




receivership after Friday?

maybe just what GH are waiting for now...

talk about being squeezed[xx(]

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by kura

Amazing thing to me is that share price is still trading around 12 cents !
The risk/reward type odds, just don't make sence to me.

Agree! There seem to be still a lot of people out there who really do believe in the tooth fairy. Today's announcement would give me anything but confidence in parting with anything like 12c - for what?

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by COLIN


quote:Originally posted by kura

Amazing thing to me is that share price is still trading around 12 cents !
The risk/reward type odds, just don't make sence to me.

Agree! There seem to be still a lot of people out there who really do believe in the tooth fairy. Today's announcement would give me anything but confidence in parting with anything like 12c - for what?


for what?

the chance to recieve a gauranteed 12c back OR 0-12c OR receivership OR to sink more money in and share in the joys of a recovery run by a bedmaker.:D

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

belge, I honestly believe your professed financial stake in this one has blinded you to the reality of the situation.


The reality is that I'll probably loose my shirt this time ... [:p]

Doesn't stop me winding up my trolls though ;)


Winding up who;)
We are still laughing at your continuing charades...keep up the good work 'Fudge'

'TROLL
An electronic mail message, Usenet posting or other
(electronic) communication which is intentionally incorrect,
but not overtly controversial (compare flame bait), or the
act of sending such a message. Trolling aims to elicit an
emotional reaction from those with a hair-trigger on the reply
key. A really subtle troll makes some people lose their
minds.The Free On-line Dictionary of Computing, © 1993-2005 Denis Howe'

maybe we can add shirt and mind
:D:D:D where's that bottle gone Belg?
BTW...keep the shirt on mate, horrible visions appearing...

[kura]

To change the subject slightly, I looked at announcement re directors holdings, ordinarily one would have expected directors to (act in own personal interest) and reduce their holdings when problems emerged.

I recall some tipsheet (forget name) that would highlight directors transactions, and base recommendations accordingly (Buying = Good, Selling = Bad, sort of thing) under this scenario, FTX would have rated as a buy. But then again I recall an ASX company where director purchased a few shares prior to administrators being appointed.

[hairdresser]

Translation of Todays Announcement by FTX [for non-technical people like me]

The bank has been waiting for 2 weeks for the Aussies to complete due diligence and confirm their offer to buy FTX for between 0-12c. They sent us a letter on Friday they reminding us that they don't want the current situation to drag on and on.

The Aussies who were keen to buy FTX at around 60c per share earlier in the year quite sensibly believe that is not worth continuing with their current offer as any offer by the Kiwis is likely to be better and no-one would vote for the Aussie offer. The Aussies are still keen to buy but would like to see the Kiwis offer before formalising any offer. This is because once they confirm their offer they are locked in and cannot increase it.

The Aussies were hoping that the Kiwis couldn't find a way to make a rescue package work.

As soon as the Kiwis table their offer we will recommend acceptance and move quickly to implement especially as the anticipated offer from the Aussies will not have materialised. This may mean that the Aussies will miss out on the opportunity to gain 50% market share of the Australasian carpet market and the benefits that go with this.

We expect that the Aussies will not want to miss a golden opportunity and come back with a superior offer. But they will need to be quick. Please note they will not get paid a break fee if they walk away from their current offer and we will not be entering into any agreements with break fees once the Kiwis offer is on the table.

The 2nd annoucement translates simply as follows

Remember the directors are shareholders as well!

[Toddy]

quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

Translation of Todays Announcement by FTX [for non-technical people like me]

The bank has been waiting for 2 weeks for the Aussies to complete due diligence and confirm their offer to buy FTX for between 0-12c. They sent us a letter on Friday they reminding us that they don't want the current situation to drag on and on.

The Aussies who were keen to buy FTX at around 60c per share earlier in the year quite sensibly believe that is not worth continuing with their current offer as any offer by the Kiwis is likely to be better and no-one would vote for the Aussie offer. The Aussies are still keen to buy but would like to see the Kiwis offer before formalising any offer. This is because once they confirm their offer they are locked in and cannot increase it.

The Aussies were hoping that the Kiwis couldn't find a way to make a rescue package work.

As soon as the Kiwis table their offer we will recommend acceptance and move quickly to implement especially as the anticipated offer from the Aussies will not have materialised. This may mean that the Aussies will miss out on the opportunity to gain 50% market share of the Australasian carpet market and the benefits that go with this.

We expect that the Aussies will not want to miss a golden opportunity and come back with a superior offer. But they will need to be quick. Please note they will not get paid a break fee if they walk away from their current offer and we will not be entering into any agreements with break fees once the Kiwis offer is on the table.

The 2nd annoucement translates simply as follows

Remember the directors are shareholders as well!


Hairdresser

I thought the translation of the ANZ doc was........... show us the money NOW or we wlll come and get it. It was a reminder than the ANZ owns Feltex and that they want to move on.

[Pennywise]

"This position has been advised to Feltex's Bank. Feltex expects to receive a response from the ANZ today and will update the market as soon as it receives that response"

2nd ANN more fudging

Belg and HD love fudge

[tsb]

so we have a company that it trading well, and as such would be expected to caryy 40% of debt, if not 50%.
The ANZ (who I left a long time ago and would never bank with them again)wants to forclose the whole debt.

Something still smells in the pan here!

[minimoke]

Hairdresser
You are giving the Board far to much credit. Based on their past performance I doubt they have the intellectual capacity to come up with such a subliminal message

[minimoke]

And to affirm my concern over the intellectual capacity of the Board my doubts are further reinforced by today’s second announcement that none of the four directors listed had the sufficient brain matter to sell any of their shares even when they could see the value of their investment shrinking. Obviously their sense of self preservation didn't kick in so why should shareholders think the Board could have the ability to preserve shareholder value.

[Pennywise]

The other thing is, they didn't actually BUY them or BUY any more but 3 of 4 chose to reduce...

What confidence does it really inspire HD?

[hairdresser]

Fortunately we are not reliant on the board.

Assume that both GH and Turners want to buy FTX both for as little as possible [a pretty safe assumption].

Then the current situation is a bit like an auction where each party has one bid. The party that bids last has the advantage as they can see the first bid before making their own bid. In this case the last bidder will be GH so they will be the purchasers at a slightly higher "price" than the Turners offer.

The current shareholders are assuming that the Turners offer will be more attractive the the current GH offer. This is why the share price hasn't fallen.

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

Fortunately we are not reliant on the board.

Assume that both GH and Turners want to buy FTX both for as little as possible [a pretty safe assumption].

Then the current situation is a bit like an auction where each party has one bid. The party that bids last has the advantage as they can see the first bid before making their own bid. In this case the last bidder will be GH so they will be the purchasers at a slightly higher "price" than the Turners offer.

The current shareholders are assuming that the Turners offer will be more attractive the the current GH offer. This is why the share price hasn't fallen.

So the canny FTX holders see the GH first bid is between 0 and 12 cents. Turners want to do better than 0 but probably don’t want to go higher then 12 since GH is bound to know more about the value of FTX than bedmakers so they pitch their bid at, say 8 cents relying on kiwi parochialism to bring them through. GH then trump it with a 9c bid.

Alternatively Turners offer 13 cents or more, GH put their 12 cents bid on, canny investors vote for Turners and GH walk with their $1m and all the inside information gained from due diligence.

Shareholders pat themselves on the back for their cleverness and the Board break open another bottle of bubbly to celebrate the success of their masterful sale plan.

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke
So the canny FTX holders see the GH first bid is between 0 and 12 cents. Turners want to do better than 0 but probably don’t want to go higher then 12 since GH is bound to know more about the value of FTX than bedmakers so they pitch their bid at, say 8 cents relying on kiwi parochialism to bring them through. GH then trump it with a 9c bid.

Alternatively Turners offer 13 cents or more, GH put their 12 cents bid on, canny investors vote for Turners and GH walk with their $1m and all the inside information gained from due diligence.

Shareholders pat themselves on the back for their cleverness and the Board break open another bottle of bubbly to celebrate the success of their masterful sale plan.



Sounds pretty spot on there MM, well almost...there may be one more senario

How about the 11th hour saviour Belgarion, Legend of Sharetrader and the wealthy software engineer from Takapuna? He has about 1% and his 'rich mates' must surely be putting the final touches on the "Golden Spreadsheet" as we speak...Friday looms...
surely Belgor has not wasted his whole time on an internet forum trying to right wrongs and achieve justice for all. That would be way out of character and such a waste of his valuable time;)

The "Golden Spreadsheet" MUST save the day for all mums and dads!

It must be delivered to the board!!

[hairdresser]

Pretty much on the right track.

I expect that Turners Offer will be along the lines of:

Feltex issues x number of new shares to Turners in return for $15m cash.

[My guess would be that Turners would want 49.99% control to avoid triggering a full takeover. So initially there would be around 150m new shares at 10c per share.]

They then need to raise another $40m. A 1 for 1 rights issue at 13c on 300m shares would achieve this. This would need to be underwritten to gain the support of the bank.

End result
600m shares.
Say $10m NPAT
1.7cps
A 13% return after tax based on a SP of 13c
Bank debt reduces to c$60m
Value on SP of 13c $78m
D/[D+E] = 43%

Current value $18m [at 12cps]
Cash put in by Turners and shareholders $55m
Total $73m

Other potential upsides with Turners offer:
1. They run the company well and profitability increases.
2. Tax losses are preserved
3. Cash from asset sales yet to be completed
4. Benefits of restructuring already completed

I would consider an offer like this from Turners to be the equivalent of a cash offer of 16cps from GH, but I’m very conservative.

The main risk I see is that Turners can’t find anyone to bank the deal. But hopefully they’ve done their homework first and can offer us a real deal.

We will all be able to do the maths on the real numbers on or before Friday the 8th.

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by Pennywise


quote:Originally posted by COLIN


quote:Originally posted by kura

Amazing thing to me is that share price is still trading around 12 cents !
The risk/reward type odds, just don't make sence to me.

Agree! There seem to be still a lot of people out there who really do believe in the tooth fairy. Today's announcement would give me anything but confidence in parting with anything like 12c - for what?


for what?

the chance to recieve a gauranteed 12c back OR 0-12c OR receivership OR to sink more money in and share in the joys of a recovery run by a bedmaker.:D

Makes more sense to buy a load of Lotto tickets.

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by Pennywise

"This position has been advised to Feltex's Bank. Feltex expects to receive a response from the ANZ today and will update the market as soon as it receives that response"

2nd ANN more fudging

Belg and HD love fudge



where is the ANZ update announcement???

[Pennywise]

down all day, market waiting and don't like it

down 9%

maybe Belg gettin out

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Nope. Will buy a few more sub 10c.

PW ... rather than make a fool of yourself with regards price movements on miniscule dollar volumes ... Why not comment on why volume is miniscule?


oh yeah, Im the fool:D:D

the fool that dropped $200k on a rotten carpet roll[|)]

'Fudge'...my point was ANZ Ann hasn't come but you can't grasp anything on this one except straws.

[Toddy]

In my experience when the ANZ is 'owed' money they always get back. Hence, odds on that the directors of FTX have the letter.

[The BOWMAN]

Are there still people out there believing the Turners brothers really can do something about it? I don't need to bring out my calculator to say that they are NOT financially capable of doing anything. What they might do is they will piss off GH a bit more and GH will make a even lower final offer. Waiting for the show to start.

[Base Trader]

I have worked on a recent negotiations similar to this. In our case after a bit of to and fro by competitive bidders - the other bidder left the table and we picked up a bargain.

I would not be surprised if GH after DD has concerns about FTX as viable and financiable entity in its own right. Sure they can probably see value as part of GH but if it is their assessment that this business on valuation and financiability does not stump up - stand alone - they may be best to stall. Turners will only want FTX as a non-recourse investment based on $10m-$15m stake and hence ANZ will have to agree (or alternative financier) also. I cannot see alternative financiers lining up for this opportunity given the press ANZ has had and given the job/plant slashing that will be needed post refinance.

The injection of the Turners relatively small equity stake with no supporting credit enhancement will look like more of the same to the ANZ. Especially, when they consider NZ residential and commercial building/refitting markets look likely to weaken further. East Coast of Australia also remains weak.

GH probably believe that the Turners offer will just not work unless they are willing to throw in more risk/credit enhancement and they do not believe they will do that.

My guess is Turners will just fall away as non-bankable. They will blame the Bank and everyone else and not themselves (for not injecting more as required). I nice get out storey. This will leave only GH at the table and now I believe their appetite will only be for a bargain.

Why take all the polictical flak etc and leverage to a weakening cycle unless their is real financial gain?

[Toddy]

The fat lady is warming up.

'The value of Feltex's debt now appeared to match and possibly exceed the $141.8 million Godfrey Hirst said it would pay for Feltex's assets. This would leave little for shareholders.'


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10399913

[winner69]

looks like the much awaited 'audited' accounts are already out if date belg

Msybe being cash flow positive came about from not paying the bills?