Feltex (FTX) - All over for shareholders

[Pennywise]

From the Article "Godfrey Hirst has offered to pay $141.8 million for the Feltex's carpet making operations. Its offer would leave the firm with as much as $13.8 million, or 12c a share. This would be distributed to shareholders ahead of a liquidation"

$13.8m at best leaves shareholders with 12c?

$13.8m/149,411,870 = 9.2c???

"The value of Feltex's debt now appeared to match and possibly exceed the $141.8 million Godfrey Hirst said it would pay for Feltex's assets. This would leave little for shareholders"



Belg...still averaging down? must be getting hot near the mantle...or are you heading for the core?

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Base Trader

I have worked on a recent negotiations similar to this. In our case after a bit of to and fro by competitive bidders - the other bidder left the table and we picked up a bargain.

I would not be surprised if GH after DD has concerns about FTX as viable and financiable entity in its own right. Sure they can probably see value as part of GH but if it is their assessment that this business on valuation and financiability does not stump up - stand alone - they may be best to stall. Turners will only want FTX as a non-recourse investment based on $10m-$15m stake and hence ANZ will have to agree (or alternative financier) also. I cannot see alternative financiers lining up for this opportunity given the press ANZ has had and given the job/plant slashing that will be needed post refinance.

The injection of the Turners relatively small equity stake with no supporting credit enhancement will look like more of the same to the ANZ. Especially, when they consider NZ residential and commercial building/refitting markets look likely to weaken further. East Coast of Australia also remains weak.

GH probably believe that the Turners offer will just not work unless they are willing to throw in more risk/credit enhancement and they do not believe they will do that.

My guess is Turners will just fall away as non-bankable. They will blame the Bank and everyone else and not themselves (for not injecting more as required). I nice get out storey. This will leave only GH at the table and now I believe their appetite will only be for a bargain.

Why take all the polictical flak etc and leverage to a weakening cycle unless their is real financial gain?


The amusing thing here is that the good old Kiwi outfit are making themselves out to be the White Knight, whereas the only basis in relaity for their interest is picking up a stake in a FTX at a good price - for them. GH, on the other hand, are being made out - by Sleephead - to be the carpet equivalent of an 80s BRY, whereas the situation is that they are at the yards for exactly the same reason as Sleepyhead - a firesale. At least they having credibility with the ANZ.

ANZ need to tread carefully, especially given the further extension of FTX debt. Soon this might become a matter of how little GH needs to pay the ANZ.

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Nope. Will buy a few more sub 10c.



you all lined up at 9.9c Belg:D

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion


quote:

This stock is now in the hands of the day-traders who may as yet have you for dinner. IMHO

As an aside, I’m a Kiwi , proud of our flag and our American friends, if I had my way you would be shot as a traitor or
better still beheaded in line with the practice of the people you support



saintjohn,

You are a fool.

If one is in any doubt, one need only read your post.

Im sorry if you lost money on FTX. Im more sorry if you can't see that I want FTX to survive.

If you beleave that FTX fate is in the hands of the 'day traders', then you are doubly the fool. It is not. It is in the hands of people like me with cash in the bank who can hold up the shareprice and provide more cash when the rights issue is announced. If people like me don't buy at now, there will be no rights issue as noone will buy rights to shares above current value.

I seldom 'day trade' and I have cash waiting to help this company, as I did, AIR, TRH and TWR when rights issues were announced. With reagrds TRH and TWR, I was frequently a lone voice saying these companies were undervalued. Where was your voice? Licking your wounds and feeling sorry for yourself? Why aren't you telling people what they need to know about FTX. I have. I have rich friends. They are all aware and watching ... ready for the rights. What have you done?

Do the maths! Show the maths to the people! Get your cash ready for the rights issue.

You doubt my patriotism? Let me see you do the same!

You make me sick! :( (Can't say I mind tho, fools like you also make me richer. :))

Should you want to delete your post s.j. ... I will remove mine too.


just beautiful

so funny you were Belgor

[Heavy Metal]

Sellers at 9c.....

One thing you can guarantee though, if the close of day price is higher than the intraday low Belgarion's golden spreadsheet will still show his FTX investment in the black:D

[777]

Courtesy of stuff.co.nz

Feltex Carpets said today Godfrey Hirst had withdrawn its rescue takeover offer for the carpet maker although the Australian company was a "willing buyer".

Hirst said it would not get into a bidding war.


Feltex said it expected a Turner brothers-led consortium to make an offer by the end of the week.

The troubled company said ANZ bank was extending its credit but monitoring its debt on a daily basis.

[Pennywise]

sellers at 9.5c

buyers 9c

Belg 13.7c (if you believe the spreadsheet)


I told you to reduce at 12c belg, but no, no no buy more under 10c he said...
of course calling me a fool once again.:D

Is Belg averaging down today?

[minimoke]

Last year FTX supposedly entered into a trade bill finance facility with the ANZ Bank to replace the extended trade terms provided by its major wool suppliers. So why in today’s announcement has “some of Feltex's raw material suppliers who were providing extended credit terms to Feltex have reduced them”. What was there to reduce or has the Board been misleading shareholders?

The ANZ facility was supposed to help get the debt under control but debt has gone from $109m at June 05, $113m at the beginning of the year, $129m by the beginning of August, and with today’s Update $142m by the end of September. And last year they had sales of $300m!

Shame they can't grow sales at the rate they can grow debt.

[barnsley bill]

Feltex Carpets Limited FTX 6 Sep, 2006, 11:24 GENERAL UPDATE
Full Text of Announcement
Since reporting on the level of borrowings of the Company as at 30 June 2006 (being $128 million), some of Feltex's raw material suppliers who were providing extended credit terms to Feltex have reduced them. In addition a regular seasonal sales promotion with selected retailers in Australia involved extended credit terms. The current level of interest-bearing debt of Feltex stands at $135 million. That level is expected to rise during the remainder of the month with the position at the end of September expected to be approximately $143 million. This increase in debt is reflected in higher working capital levels for the Company. The Bank has been monitoring and extending credit on a daily basis in accordance with daily and weekly forecasts provided to it by the Company.

The current Godfrey Hirst proposal contains a mechanism through which the purchase price to be paid to Feltex is increased (or decreased) for increases (or decreases) in Feltex's working capital position as at the settlement date. Godfrey Hirst and the Turners have been kept apprised of the forecast working capital movements throughout the 'due diligence' period.

As noted in Monday morning's release from the Company, Godfrey Hirst advised Feltex on Sunday evening that it was considering its position in relation to its further participation in the sales process.

Godfrey Hirst has now advised Feltex that, in all the circumstances, it does not consider that its current proposal has a reasonable prospect of success. It is not interested in getting involved in a bidding war for the assets of Feltex and accordingly Godfrey Hirst will not be signing formal documentation with Feltex on the current terms of the draft Sale and Purchase Agreement. It has further advised Feltex that it has not formally withdrawn from the sales process and remains a willing buyer of the business, but only in an environment which is more conducive to a successful sales process. In those circumstances, Godfrey Hirst would then consider the terms on which it would be prepared to move forward.

Craig and Graeme Turner have reconfirmed to Feltex that they expect to present their full offer to the Board of Feltex on Friday, 8 September 2006. The Bank met with Craig Turner yesterday to seek an update on their position.

Ends.


oops

[winner69]

What a farce ..... please daddy can I have some more pocket money to go into town today

.... and are the Turners really serious

[Pennywise]

ANZ waiting for Friday, they must be getting very worried as the more likely bidder walks.

hanging by a thread.

[kura]

Great wording though "...in an enviroment more conducive to a successful sales process. " (ie would rather talk to receivers)

But for the true believers, this will be good news, as FTX won't be up for the break fee, now that GH have walked.

Incredibly shares still trade at 9 cents.

[HarryFlashman]

I have never really understood why any buyer wouldn't just wait for the company to collapse then pick up the assets for not much money. This small sum would be all the bank would get.

Perhaps somebody might explain this to me as I can be slow sometimes.

I can't see the Turner brothers coming up with any credible bid.

Looks like carpet burns for the ANZ.

Cheers
Harry

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by HarryFlashman

I have never really understood why any buyer wouldn't just wait for the company to collapse then pick up the assets for not much money. This small sum would be all the bank would get.

Perhaps somebody might explain this to me as I can be slow sometimes.

I can't see the Turner brothers coming up with any credible bid.

Looks like carpet burns for the ANZ.

Cheers
Harry


Maybe GH plan all along, they have seen their competition inside out, now they wait...
seems to be panning out just fine for them atm.

Maybe they will get another chance at the fire sale.

[hesiod]

Anyone know who banks GH ? I think Turners said they banked ANZ but didn't seem to provide them any leverage.

Now we've established there is a zero shareholder capital its just about time for the vulture funds. It might just get interesting.

Its chicken - and game on :D

[Pennywise]

Looks like Belg is the only one left <s>admitting</s>, I mean caught holding this carpet roll...

Where are all the Belg cheerleaders:D

licking wounds?

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by hesiod

Anyone know who banks GH ? I think Turners said they banked ANZ but didn't seem to provide them any leverage.


FTX bank is ANZ Australia - Melbourne if the hog recalls correctly.

Turners bank with ANZ in New Zealand. Although the two are linked by ownership, they are separate entities operationally. ANZ Au. also own The National Bank, which competes with ANZ NZ.

[The BOWMAN]

Can't believe the share price can hold above 9c. Mum and Dad want to get even on this? Or punters spending $2000 thinking the price will go back to $1.70? [8D][8D] Crazy world.

[Base Trader]

GH are now the only bidder as I see it. The loss of trade credit means the only viable company to resurect this important relationship is GH.

Given the increase in debt I would guess trade credit has been reduced significantly and stock levels are up. If that is correct - then there is likely to be further problems with recent sales volumes.

Not good.

[hairdresser]

The following is a true story only the names have been changed to protect the innocent.

Tim owes $140 to Franz.

Franz wants his money back.

Tim doesn’t have the cash but he does have some old CD’s that Franz reckons are worth around $100 on TradeMe. Tim says he can have the CD’s instead of the cash.

Then Franz hears that Ted wants to give Tim $40 to listen to his old CD’s.

Franz waits until Tim gets the $40 from Ted gives it to him before he goes around and collects the old CD and sells them for around $100. Franz gets all his money back.

Also Tim and Franz know that Jeffrey would love to add the CD’s to his collection as this will enable him to complete his set which would then be very valuable and be worth far more to Jeffrey than the $140.

Does this sound familiar. On a more serious note.

Why would the ANZ stop the Turners from shovelling in some cash and repaying some debt? They will end up in a much better position in the event of a recovery. They don’t lose any of their rights, and at $100m stock and debtors would just about get the bank out. Plus anything they can get out of the plant, equipment and land.

GH don’t win in a liquidation. What assets would they want, stock debtors plant and equipment???? If FTX go under there will be a big gap in production that many players including GH and Mr Magoo and his Chinese friends would move to fill.

Why would the ANZ not support the Turners? Their worst outcome is that they will end up in a better position to the tune of $40m. And it may put pressure on GH to come up with an offer that shareholders will accept and ANZ will end get all their money back.

NB Banks don’t lose money [or much anyway] because they are smart.

[Pennywise]

tHE FUNNIEST THING TONIGHT IS THE SiLeNCE FROM bELGARION BUT HE HAS ENOUGH TIME TO POST RUBBISH ABOUT the bUSH in off topic EVEN THOUGH THE WIFEY WILL KILL HIM FOR LOSING $200,000...SPEAK NO EVIL? HEAR NO EVIL[^]

[trackers]

So what's up with FTX huh? Cheap carpet for my house? cool

[Base Trader]

If GH makes an offer and this does not include ANZ taking a hair cut then it is largely problem solved for ANZ. Creditors will again likely give terms, they will implement improved inventory management and receiavble terms improving in line with GH current arrangement - hence working capital improves almost immediately.

Turners offer will hardly be handing a cheque to the ANZ. It will refinancing debt for a term at close to current levels with the cash used for restructure purposes and managing working capital. Sure debt will reduce with injection BUT the facility size will be unchanged and so maybe drawn to this level in future (subject to covenant compliance). ANZ will still have to trust that Turners can turn this company around.

I actually believe that the Feltex product abnd market is seriously underperforming and this is much of the problem.

As for Banks being smart? I would tend to say that they (we) are the dominant negotiator rather than smart.

[Toddy]

quote:Originally posted by Pennywise

tHE FUNNIEST THING TONIGHT IS THE SiLeNCE FROM bELGARION BUT HE HAS ENOUGH TIME TO POST RUBBISH ABOUT the bUSH in off topic EVEN THOUGH THE WIFEY WILL KILL HIM FOR LOSING $200,000...SPEAK NO EVIL? HEAR NO EVIL[^]


Belgarion probably watched Bruce Shephard (the shareholder's knight in shining armour)on the tvnz business programme this morning. He basically said that the most likely course for shareholders to get anything out of this show now was by disolving the company, and using what little money they may get back to take legal action against the management/auditors/brokers etc.

I guess that Friday cannot come soon enough.


Good luck

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by trackers

So what's up with FTX huh? Cheap carpet for my house? cool

Yep, kura hopes to carpet his cave, once the receivers start discounting the stuff.

But in all seriousness folks, the fact that GH have walked away is mildy positive, in that we are now left with the Sleepyhead proposal, (whatever it may be) as the only viable option for ANZ that don't/won't involve ANZ taking a significant haircut, so theoretically the bank will now be a lot more "helpfull" in accommodating a Sleepyhead recapitalisation proposal.

PS: Pennywise, please give Belg a break, I can recall feeling the pain of Access Brokerage when it originally looked like I was going to be down by a significant number, and the feeling wasn't nice. Well, OK, gloat if you must, but just don't rabbit on about it for too long ay

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

The following is a true story only the names have been changed to protect the innocent.

Tim owes $140 to Franz.

Franz wants his money back.

Tim doesn’t have the cash but he does have some old CD’s that Franz reckons are worth around $100 on TradeMe. Tim says he can have the CD’s instead of the cash.

Then Franz hears that Ted wants to give Tim $40 to listen to his old CD’s.

Franz waits until Tim gets the $40 from Ted gives it to him before he goes around and collects the old CD and sells them for around $100. Franz gets all his money back.

Also Tim and Franz know that Jeffrey would love to add the CD’s to his collection as this will enable him to complete his set which would then be very valuable and be worth far more to Jeffrey than the $140.

Does this sound familiar. On a more serious note.

Why would the ANZ stop the Turners from shovelling in some cash and repaying some debt? They will end up in a much better position in the event of a recovery. They don’t lose any of their rights, and at $100m stock and debtors would just about get the bank out. Plus anything they can get out of the plant, equipment and land.

GH don’t win in a liquidation. What assets would they want, stock debtors plant and equipment???? If FTX go under there will be a big gap in production that many players including GH and Mr Magoo and his Chinese friends would move to fill.

Why would the ANZ not support the Turners? Their worst outcome is that they will end up in a better position to the tune of $40m. And it may put pressure on GH to come up with an offer that shareholders will accept and ANZ will end get all their money back.

NB Banks don’t lose money [or much anyway] because they are smart.


But what can the Turners bring to the party? Experience in carpet manufacturing? Ability to convince hard-nosed bankers that they have the wherewithall to turn this mangey dog into a lion? A bevy of credible institutions prepared to underwrite a massive cash issue? (Its obviously going to take a lot more than $40m to save the day).

Receivership seems pretty inevitable, I'm afraid.

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by hairdresser
[br

GH don’t win in a liquidation. What assets would they want, stock debtors plant and equipment???? If FTX go under there will be a big gap in production that many players including GH and Mr Magoo and his Chinese friends would move to fill.


Dissagree Hairdresser, have you considered that GH only wanted the "nice bits" of FTX, and were only prepared to make a bid for the whole company, to get the part that would neatly fit into their operations ?? In a receivership situation, they will be able to just pick the eyes out of the FTX carcass, yes receivers have a preference for selling an entire bizz, but as their only mandate is to "get the money" it is their right to decide if a bizz should be sold in whole or in parts.

Just for clarification, I consider the "nice bits" of FTX to be the traditional/historical NZ FTX bizz, the way I see it, is that it is the Aust bizz, that was purchased while FTX was in private equity ownership that has been the real destroyer of value.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Base Trader



I actually believe that the Feltex product abnd market is seriously underperforming and this is much of the problem.



Finally somebody has seen the real cause of all the problems ... well said Basetrader

So the real 'lie' in the prospectus and all the hype that went with it was that Feltex was an iconic brand ... when in fact it was a brand slowing dying.

[Toddy]

I wonder if FTX shares will be suspended from trading from 5pm today.
So if you want to sell then get in quick, otherwise you may miss out 'forever'.

FTX
07/09/2006
GENERAL

REL: 0938 HRS Feltex Carpets Limited

GENERAL: FTX: UPDATE

Feltex has been advised by the ANZ Bank of a deadline of 8:00 am (6:00 am
Melbourne time) on Friday 8 September, by which the ANZ Bank must receive
details of any acceptable offers for the Company or its businesses or to
recapitalise the Company. Any such offers must be fully funded. This
information was advised to Godfrey Hirst and the Turners with a request for
an immediate response and with an invitation to make such an offer to the
Company by 5:00 pm Thursday 7 September.

Godfrey Hirst has confirmed that it will not be submitting an offer. The
Turners have advised that they will make their offer by the stipulated
deadline.

The ANZ Bank has also advised the Company that it will not permit any further
drawdown against the Company's facilities for the remainder of this week.
The position is to be reviewed by the ANZ Bank on Friday. The Company is
able to make payments from its cash balances but this means that payments to
some suppliers may be deferred.

As previously advised by Directors, the pressure the Company is experiencing
relates to resolving the debt levels of the company and does not reflect on
the current trading performance which is strong. August sales exceeded
budget and the forward sales order book remains healthy.

Ends.

[Pennywise]

forced forward a day?...thought it was by 5pm Friday.
Todays the day

BTW: HWE had a forward order book of $2.5b, didn't mean a thing.

NOW is the hour...and only 7 to go

[Snow Leopard]

Edge of the seat stuff. [:0]
Will the hero be able to rescue the damsel in distress before the evil villians' deadline is met?
Who is the hero?
My bet is either Bruce Willis or Kiefer Sutherland. ;)

[Toddy]

Pennywise, the ANZ bank has turned the money tap off.
The FTX`cash account would not last until tomorrow.
Lets hope that the tea lady has enough cash to buy the biscuits for morning tea.

[nelehdine]

Buy depth looks awful , shares getting sold down steadily. If I was silly enough not to have read the writing on the wall I would be selling at any price this morning ... shares will be worthless sooner rather than later ...

[minimoke]

Latest News coming out of Feltex on its website:
“Invicta & Redbook Carpets on display to over 25,000 consumers”


Oops – dated 22 June 03.

If this is the best their media and sales department can do no wonder the company has invited the fat lady onto the stage.

[Toddy]

Right, I'm off for a sleep now. I predict that when I log back on in 6 hours time FTX would have just had its last trade on the market ever and the price will be 4 cents.

[etnom]

If Godfrey Hirst does not bid, does it still get paid a break away fee if another party make a successful bid.

[Placebo]

While all the focus is on the shareholders spare a thought for the staff too, many of whose lives are in limbo with the future of the company up inthe air.:(

[Pennywise]

2pm and 7c...

I don't think it will go below 6c by close, usually there is even a small bounce mid arvo and may push back to 8c.

still too many suckers think they are getting 12c.


dada da da da da...the final countdown...

FTX brand now valued at $10m

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Pennywise

dada da da da da...the final countdown...


Yes, strange how that song (http://www.lyricsdomain.com/5/europe/the_final_countdown.html) springs unbidden into one's mind. :(

[rymndchn]

I don't think GH will get paid the break fee since they pulled out themselves and the announcement before says no break fee is payable if GH does not proceed with an offer.

[GTM 3442]

Wonder what "stuff" will happen ?

Bet that some does !

[cantab]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

While all the focus is on the shareholders spare a thought for the staff too, many of whose lives are in limbo with the future of the company up inthe air.:(


Why? There are plenty of jobs out there, an employee will leave when it suits [u]them</u> and the staff haven't lost capital. Its Ma and Pa investors who people should feel sorry for....and let's not forget the poor ANZ shareholders who could end up losing on this. :(

Very surprising that ANZ let the debt situation get to this and even more surprising is that ANZ bailed out the unsecured trade creditors, at least until today.

[winner69]

Fightinh to the end those Directors ... 'the current trading performance which is strong. August sales exceeded budget and the forward sales order book remains healthy.

How could their bank be so mean spirited ... oops i forgot they are owed $140M

Anybody wonder why FTX didn't sort out the debt problem yonks ago .... was it because they couldn't find anybody interested in putting any new capital in and underwriting a rights issue? .... probably, because any interested party could have seen through the smoke and mirrors and sid no ... not me sorry guys.

[Lizard]

Belgarion, tonight might be a good time to advise all your interested followers whether you have now sold your Feltex shares (at a small loss) or whether you are still holding (and perhaps have averaged down further?). Anything you say tomorrow might be less believable...

[shasta]

I wonder when the Directors will be hit up for "Reckless Trading", with FTX barely a going concern, the solvency test must surely mean the end is nigh.

Let the legal action begin!

Disc: Never held FTX

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Belgarion, tonight might be a good time to advise all your interested followers whether you have now sold your Feltex shares (at a small loss) or whether you are still holding (and perhaps have averaged down further?). Anything you say tomorrow might be less believable...


He is on the emirates flight to melbourne so he can be in first at 5.55a.m AEST to deliver his golden spreadsheet with his "rich friends" to ANZ in Collins Street. Thus saving the day for all those hapless holders and staff (not to mention suppliers who aint gonna get paid)

Oh and your less believable comment is a hoot.. Less believable than anything else he has said on the subject of FTX????
I can't wait for pennywise to trawl through the old belgisms on this thread for our enjoyment tomorrow.

[sekrub]

Turner brothers believed to have made offer for Feltex
Posted at 7:57pm on 07 Sep 2006

One of the potential rescuers of troubled carpet-maker Feltex is believed to have met a bid deadline and put an offer to the company.

Feltex had set a deadline of five o'clock Thursday afternoon, ahead of a deadline of Friday morning set by the ANZ bank.

Radio New Zealand understands the owners of the Sleepyhead company, Craig and Graeme Turner, put their offer to Feltex early Thursday evening.

Feltex said earlier the other interested company, Godfrey Hirst, had confirmed it would not submit an offer by then.

Feltex also says ANZ has given it until 8am Friday to submit details of any acceptable offers, including possible recapitalisation plans.

Debt expected to reach $143m
The company said yesterday its debt is expected to reach $143 million by the end of the month and told some suppliers that payments may be delayed,.

However, the company says it is trading well, and the current problems are solely to do with continuing debt levels.

Feltex says the ANZ Bank has also told the company that it won't permit any further drawdown on its loan facilities for the rest of this week but will review its position on Friday.

The company says the pressure it is under relates to resolving its debt levels and maintains it is trading well, with August sales ahead of budget. Feltex says the forward sales order book remains healthy.

Shares remain at 9c
Shares in Feltex fell 16% after the takeover bid by Godfrey Hirst was pulled on Wednesday. Feltex's shares hit new lows of 9c on Wednesday, even with Godfrey Hirst saying it remained a willing buyer.

By close of trading on Thursday Feltex shares were still at 9c after dropping to 7.5c at midday.

Feltex listed in 2004 at $NZ1.70 a share, giving it a market capitalisation of more than $250m.

Radio New Zealand's business editor says there is no doubt Feltex's extra debt has raised the bar; and will force the Turners to raise the $NZ40m capital injection they thought would initially satisfy creditors, for them to become cornerstone investors.

Earlier doubts over bid
Earlier in the week, Milford Asset Management's Brian Gaynor said he doubted whether the Turners could match the Godfrey Hirst bid.

Radio New Zealand's business editor says the chances of Feltex being put into receivership also remain high.

Commentators say the ANZ Bank is likely to wait until the bids are on the table, as asset sales may fail to see it recover all its money.

Feltex may face further questions from regulators for failing to reveal higher debt levels in a timely fashion under disclosure rules.

[trackers]

Belg if you're out there, hoping you doin alright and you're not going to lose your hat on this one (never nice to see a fellow sharetrader take a significant loss)

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by barnsley bill
I can't wait for pennywise to trawl through the old belgisms on this thread for our enjoyment tomorrow.

Just what we needed, a new word for the english language.

[Silly Duffer]

I find the pathetic sniping at Belgarion a reflection of the somewhat petty level this website unfortunately has descended to. It's easy to be wise after the event.I previously found this sites posters consistently expressed interesting commentary and views.I now only open the site very very occasionally.For me it's less relevant and topical than a couple of years ago.Perhaps those who from anonymity gain helpful satisfaction from the slinging of insults and sarcasm.If they do that's good for them.But for me the accumulation of somewhat petty views is makes the site much less relevant.I'd be interested in the views of similar minded posters out there.I'll probably cop a few anti views but that's healthy....The real question is where to now in rebuilding an interesting and relevant site.

[trackers]

quote:Originally posted by Silly Duffer

I find the pathetic sniping at Belgarion a reflection of the somewhat petty level this website unfortunately has descended to. It's easy to be wise after the event.I previously found this sites posters consistently expressed interesting commentary and views.I now only open the site very very occasionally.For me it's less relevant and topical than a couple of years ago.Perhaps those who from anonymity gain helpful satisfaction from the slinging of insults and sarcasm.If they do that's good for them.But for me the accumulation of somewhat petty views is makes the site much less relevant.I'd be interested in the views of similar minded posters out there.I'll probably cop a few anti views but that's healthy....The real question is where to now in rebuilding an interesting and relevant site.


Yeah have to agree with you fully... The trouble I find is that (in my opinion only) the main protaginist is old Sniper who just goes way too far and pisses everyone off, yet I personally find his/her views and reasoning's on FTX/NZO et al quite interesting, generally fairly reasonable, and align with my own

[Toddy]

quote:Originally posted by Silly Duffer

I find the pathetic sniping at Belgarion a reflection of the somewhat petty level this website unfortunately has descended to. It's easy to be wise after the event.I previously found this sites posters consistently expressed interesting commentary and views.I now only open the site very very occasionally.For me it's less relevant and topical than a couple of years ago.Perhaps those who from anonymity gain helpful satisfaction from the slinging of insults and sarcasm.If they do that's good for them.But for me the accumulation of somewhat petty views is makes the site much less relevant.I'd be interested in the views of similar minded posters out there.I'll probably cop a few anti views but that's healthy....The real question is where to now in rebuilding an interesting and relevant site.


Fantastic - maybe you can start by changing your name from 'Silly Duffer'.

[bermuda]

Hi Silly Duffer,
I share your sentiments entirely.I joined this site a couple of years ago and really enjoyed the serious contributions that posters made.It was very educational.
Today however I have to admit that there is an increasing amount of vitriole and sarcasm,sniping call it what you will.

It really does detract from a very useful medium.

[Sharp737]

Who knows? Belg may be right, time will show the answer.
However, I don't think it's good to kick anyone when they are down. For that matter, I don't think people should gloat when they do well. We are all here to do the best we can. At least I am and if we can give some good advice from time to time, and be encouraging, great.

Kev

[Lizard]

quote:Originally posted by Silly Duffer

The real question is where to now in rebuilding an interesting and relevant site.


Well, I would have thought the obvious answer would be for all the lurkers out there to make interesting and relevant contributions... those of us who post are not here to provide a free magazine, but rather to discuss and obtain others viewpoints. At the very least, you could start by thanking or responding to posters who post something you find interesting...

In regard to Feltex, there's very little to write except banter - the time for serious analysis is well past!

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by Sharp737

Who knows? Belg may be right, time will show the answer.
However, I don't think it's good to kick anyone when they are down. For that matter, I don't think people should gloat when they do well. We are all here to do the best we can. At least I am and if we can give some good advice from time to time, and be encouraging, great.

Kev


Belg may be right? what! following his advice you would have been piling in from 62c all the way down and still not stopping...even losing you another 40% in the last 2 days.[V]

God, there are some namby twamby twits on this site. I agree with Lizard, non contributors most of the twits.

notice that NONE of them have commented on the stock themselves until death day

typical

[Sharp737]

I should have qualified that comment about Belg to when he suggested buying more just recently. And I for one have been watching this stock for some time. And if Turners do turn things around, there could be a bit of egg on a few faces. Still a risk of course.

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by Silly Duffer

I find the pathetic sniping at Belgarion a reflection of the somewhat petty level this website unfortunately has descended to. It's easy to be wise after the event.I previously found this sites posters consistently expressed interesting commentary and views.I now only open the site very very occasionally.For me it's less relevant and topical than a couple of years ago.Perhaps those who from anonymity gain helpful satisfaction from the slinging of insults and sarcasm.If they do that's good for them.But for me the accumulation of somewhat petty views is makes the site much less relevant.I'd be interested in the views of similar minded posters out there.I'll probably cop a few anti views but that's healthy....The real question is where to now in rebuilding an interesting and relevant site.


As for "after the event"...absolute rubbish. You don't know what you are talking about.

...and pathetic sniping...If you like Silly Duffer, I will provide you with multiple posts by your hero Belgarion where anyone that opposes him is an idiot, a moron or a loser. Have you posted your thoughts on ANY of his rantings?

If not, after your post, I am glad you don't post much as you have popped up and contributed nothing yourself but "an armchair whing"

another couch ref by the sounds of you

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by winner69
Anybody wonder why FTX didn't sort out the debt problem yonks ago .... was it because they couldn't find anybody interested in putting any new capital in and underwriting a rights issue? .... probably, because any interested party could have seen through the smoke and mirrors and sid no ... not me sorry guys.

I fully expected a rights issue some time back when Belg was starting to accumulate, as my thinking was to purchase during the rights trading period, and just couldn't see why this option wasn't explored, rather than letting things slowly drift to the brink of receivership.

Must admit that if I were in Turners shoes, (and interested in saving the FTX brands) I would not put a rescue proposal in today, and just negotiate with the receivers for the "good bits" of the company.

[minimoke]

Spare a thought for Chairman Tim as he looks through the Turners deal. He has $140,000 worth of Directors fees at stake and this is for a $13m company!.

So what sort of responsibilities does the Board have:
1) working with management to establish the strategic direction of Feltex;
2) monitoring management and financial performance;
3) monitoring compliance and risk management;
4) establishing and monitoring the health and safety policies of Feltex;
5) establishing and ensuring implementation of succession plans for senior management; and
6) ensuring effective disclosure policies and procedures.

Since Tim hasn’t been quick to offer a reduction in his fees we can only presume the current situation FTX finds itself in today is the successful meeting of his first responsibility. Well done Tim.

Monitoring and establishing things is easy enough to do so top marks for the next few responsibilities. Shame though that there wasn’t a requirement to do these things with the aim of enhancing shareholder value.

As for no 6) there still is no FY06 results out yet and a worse performance on this than last year. Tut tut Tim

Never mind Tim, I’m sure the Director fees from Pimlico Vinyards (hoping for a seat with FTB?), Pyne Gould, Marac Finance, Solid Energy, Northington Investments, CoaCorp Insurance, Contact Energy, Marac Securities, Calan Healthcare, Perpetual Trust, Global Corporate Credit, Cape Consulting and Cape Leisure will hopefully keep you in the style to which you have no doubt become accustomed.

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke

Latest News coming out of Feltex on its website:
“Invicta & Redbook Carpets on display to over 25,000 consumers”


Oops – dated 22 June 03.

If this is the best their media and sales department can do no wonder the company has invited the fat lady onto the stage.


Wow some FTX employee or webmaster can move quickly. The link has gone already. To the FTX lurker: shame your bosses couldn't release some real news on your site so effeciently!

[Toddy]

FTX
08/09/2006
GENERAL

REL: 0838 HRS Feltex Carpets Limited

GENERAL: FTX: OFFER FROM THE TURNERS

Feltex confirms that it has received an offer from the Turners for a
recapitalisation and refinancing of the Company. The Board has evaluated the
proposal and submitted it to the ANZ Bank for its consideration on the basis
that it is acceptable to the Directors and they would be prepared to
recommend it to shareholders in the absence of a superior offer. The Company
now awaits the response of the ANZ Bank.

In summary, the offer consists of the issue by the Company of convertible
notes (the Securities) to an amount of $40 million to the Turners and a named
group of Core Investors. The Core Investors would also underwrite a
renounceable rights issue of Securities to existing shareholders to an amount
of $11 million. The Securities would be priced at 10 cents each. Following
the rights issue, and assuming 100% take-up by existing shareholders, the
Turners and Core Investors would each hold 30.3% of the equity of the
Company. The Turners would also be issued with 115 million Warrants over
unissued Securities. The Warrants have a four year exercise period at an
exercise price of 15 cents per Warrant. If all Warrants were exercised, the
Turners' interest would rise to 40.7%.

The offer also envisages that a refinancing package would be arranged for
Feltex from first tier lending institutions. The Turners are expecting
credit-approved letters of offer within the next two business days to enable
the refinancing of Feltex's debt with the ANZ Bank. The Turners offer is
conditional upon the terms of these letters of offer being acceptable to
them.

The transaction would require the approval of 50% of the votes of
shareholders present or by proxy at a Special Meeting of shareholders, which
is expected to be called by the end of October.

The Board will provide further details of the offer after it has received a
response from the ANZ Bank.

[kura]

Seems fairly generous to me, once prospectus comes out, I may still be a buyer during rights trading if the numbers stack up, but the ball is in ANZ court for the moment.

[Lizard]

Dilution of original shares by 5 times - restored to market cap at float, would be worth 30cps. But still financed by debt (do these convertible securities pay interest?). Still as much bank debt as at HY05 when the slide started, and possibly fewer assets.

[Snow Leopard]

IF this should go through then effectively the existing 149.4m shares would become 659.4 split thus:

<pre id="code">
Existing shares 149.4 22.66%
Turners 200.0 30.33%
Core Investors 200.0 30.33%
Rights holders 110.0 16.68% split between existing and core investors
659.4 100.00%
</pre id="code">

Plus those warrants of course.

Next step, for someone else to do, guess the EPS for the next year or two.

[The BOWMAN]

By the time all of these are done, the loan would have creeped up to more than $160M. To turn around FTX, I highly doubt that this is enough. Just have a look at what Power House has done to PRG. This is simply to please the bank for now, in half a year time, another right issue will be required.
It has to be a FOOL to buy this share yesterday and only FOOL will buy this share today. Unless you think the way to make money from shares are the same you do from TAB.

[Enumerate]

$51million of new capital subordinated to the bank debt - the ANZ will be happy with this.

I only hope that they have put some pressure on the bank to forgive some interest. After all, in the current situation - the bank must be fairly nervous about capital preservation.

In effect, GH bluffed and the Turners have justed called that bluff.

I'd expect the small holders to be happier with the Turners bid (in which they now have another roll of the dice) rather than the miserable certainty of GH.

Ball now in GH court. How bad do they want Feltex?

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by Enumerate

Ball now in GH court. How bad do they want Feltex?

Or their $1m break fee!

[The BOWMAN]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke


quote:Originally posted by Enumerate

Ball now in GH court. How bad do they want Feltex?

Or their $1m break fee!


Exactly, GH could simply make a ridiculously low offer and still be entitled to $1m break fee!

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Dilution of original shares by 5 times - restored to market cap at float, would be worth 30cps. But still financed by debt (do these convertible securities pay interest?). Still as much bank debt as at HY05 when the slide started, and possibly fewer assets.

You would think the convertable securities would be interest bearing, as I haven't come accross any that were interest free, I would also assume they would be preferential for repayment on liquidation.

Shareholders cough up additional 10 cents per share, and are left with (say) 25% of original company. Sure beats the only other option on the table.

[Lizard]

quote:Originally posted by kura
Shareholders cough up additional 10 cents per share, and are left with (say) 25% of original company. Sure beats the only other option on the table.


Only if you believe that the securities investors are left holding are going to be worth more than 10cps. Otherwise, good money after bad etc. etc. Not necessarily the case here, but so far little hard evidence submitted that Feltex will be in a better position after this recap than it was 18 months ago. A few investors will make good money on a sentiment bounce if this goes through, but the long term holders will be lucky to make term deposit rates of return over the next two years, and very unlikely to make an appropriate risk-adjusted return.

[Pennywise]

Exactly Lizard, we knew what was coming from Turners, well signalled.

The question really is now, if it goes ahead, how much damage has been done to the brand and what NEW? management can do that the previous "carpet industry" gurus couldn't.

At least now you can start to make INFORMED decisions whilst not losing any capital by hoping another TWR comes along. Investors have missed nothing.

With a recap, there is not the same nmoney to be made overnight than a straight out offer like GH...ie: punters still hoping for 12c etc.

How much trust do you have in FTX going forward with current market conditions for the industry...nothing has changed there.

Wait to hear Belgs story (*oh so quiet). I doubt he bought any more under 10c (well, he hadn't seen the books! had he). Under this recap he is up for another nearly $200,000 if he really believes his own pyramid. The more he averages down the more the hole gets deeper. He must really trust the FTX management;)

[Pennywise]

ps, if I was Belgor, I would be reducing my exposure right now at 11.8c.

he is probably in profit;)

[The BOWMAN]

Market price at 11c+. There are lots of FOOLs out there! :D:D:D

[hairdresser]

The Turners deal looks fair for all concerned considering the risks the new investors are taking.

For estimating FTX share value [with the Turners offer] you can either do the maths yourself or use the option strike price as a base.

I believe the shares are more valuable than the strike price in themselves and I expect that GH will come up with an offer significantly superior to the option strike price. The GH offer will have to be soon and unconditional to get them back on the playing field.

I expect ANZ to continue to freeze the loans and review the situation in 2 days time in case the 1st tier finance doesn't eventuate.

It is good to see the other banks are competing for $100m of fully secured debt. I would have no problem if they charge an establishment fee close to the [now redundant] GH break fee.

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by The BOWMAN

quote:Originally posted by minimoke
Or their $1m break fee!

Exactly, GH could simply make a ridiculously low offer and still be entitled to $1m break fee!


I'd say, as a guess, that the break fee is now history.

The deadline for presenting a deal has passed. GH is on record saying they will not present a competative deal.

GH thought they were pressuring the Turners. Their expectation was "fold". They got "see you" and "raise"!

I am enjoying this saga unfold as I see a better deal for the existing shareholders emerging from all of this.

I just hope that the Turners put the pressure on the ANZ as artfully as they have handled the GH "negotiation". Make capital repayment ($20-$30 million, say) contingent on an interest holiday!! The bank does not want to face capital loss - lower yield, guaranteeing capital preservation is the end game, for them! USE YOUR POWER NOW!

The big question is - is the new money enough to restructure the debt and restructure operations.

I would expect the Aussie synthetic carpet production facilities will be sold (to retire debt) and Feltex will return to a NZ based, wool specialist.

Of course the idiot management must be gone by lunchtime.

I also predict that GH will be back at the table negotiating with Feltex. This time the ANZ will not be forcing a firesale deal. They will be dealing with the true owners of the company and dealing on commercial terms.

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

I believe the shares are more valuable than the strike price in themselves and I expect that GH will come up with an offer significantly superior to the option strike price. The GH offer will have to be soon and unconditional to get them back on the playing field.



"I believe"...sounds like faith, are you holding HD?
more than 15c, why?
what has changed overnight [u]really</u> for the BUSINESS not "the deal"?

[The BOWMAN]

quote:Originally posted by Enumerate

I just hope that the Turners put the pressure on the ANZ as artfully as they have handled the GH "negotiation". Make capital repayment ($20-$30 million, say) contingent on an interest holiday!! The bank does not want to face capital loss - lower yield, guaranteeing capital preservation is the end game, for them! USE YOUR POWER NOW!



That's easy. Refuse Turners deal, call in the receivers, they can get the capital back.

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by Enumerate
I'd say, as a guess, that the break fee is now history.

The deadline for presenting a deal has passed. GH is on record saying they will not present a competative deal.


I wouldn't be writing off GH just yet. From the 6/9 Update: "It (GH)has further advised Feltex that it has not formally withdrawn from the sales process and remains a willing buyer of the business, but only in an environment which is more conducive to a successful sales process."

Provided they put a proposal to the Board prior to the Sepcial Meeting they could still be in the running.

[moimoi]

""but only in an environment which is more conducive to a successful sales process."""

IE: we want to hold the last bid so lets just have a look at what that other crowd offers first....

;)
moi.

[trackers]

quote:Originally posted by moimoi

""but only in an environment which is more conducive to a successful sales process."""

IE: we want to hold the last bid so lets just have a look at what that other crowd offers first....

;)
moi.




IE: If the Turner offer's not very good for ANZ, we'll grab it off the receivers

[Pennywise]

meanwhile, down at the farm GH is taking full advantage of the situation

market share.

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by The BOWMAN
That's easy. Refuse Turners deal, call in the receivers, they can get the capital back.


No, the bank does not want a receivership. Imagine all the redundancy payments, reciever/liquidator fees, delays in capital repayment, tax liabilities, etc etc

It ia all about risk - doing a deal is the lower risk option. Even if the price is a significant interest holiday.

Turners should now put the heat on the ANX - GH is not necessarily in the picture anymore. Now is the time to exploit the information asymmetry ...

[kura]

I thought we should have had ANZ response by now ?

[duncan macgregor]

belge, I only hope you have learned to never average down like those other idiots. macdunk

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

:)

Think you are correct Belg, suspect it is a case of no news being good news.

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

belge, I only hope you have learned to never average down like those other idiots. macdunk


What are you talking about?

His spreadsheet now shows his average entry price to be 7.2 cents because he averaged down this week.
:D

[duncan macgregor]

BELGE, go for it hope you win. Not for me i am to chicken. macdunk

[Lizard]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Dunc ... This my sort of game. I love it.

Sometimes I lose ... More often than not, I win ... But not this time ... but maybe.

It is not about gambling; (as many have said); it is about fundimentals.

That said; On this one .... I expect to lose - in the short term at least. Have I learnt something? I have! And to me, learning a lesson; however bitter; is better than sitting on the sidelines and being an 'expert after the event'.

Thanks Belg. Nice to see an honest comment from you. You know, no matter how sceptical we may be, I suspect we all would like to see Feltex survive and make money (and probably most of us would like to see the Turner brothers succeed in their bid). The only thing we dislike is seeing green investors encouraged to take more risk than they comprehend by those who know the game. Good luck, Liz

[winner69]

Could do a share consolidation before the rights issue .... 1 for 17 sounds pretty good

Then punters only need to front up with $1.70 for new shares

All sounds too familiar

[hairdresser]

Unfortunately it is almost certain that GH will trump the Turners bid once it goes unconditional next week.

Without doubt the Turners would have made some interesting new friends over the last couple of weeks, I'm sure they will do OK out it.

I would support GH at 20cps.

NB FTX makes up 30% of my portfolio.

[sniper]

So much for Belg's latest postings ....


quote:Originally posted by bongo66


quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Im could be down 100K and all you guys can do is gloat?

You're scum!

Why not talk about the reasons why hundreds of mums and dads who can afford the hit less than me are being butt-f!cked ....

While you gloat at my loss ... You're gloating at their loss too ... I didn't buy at 1.70 ... Your gloating will hurt them considerably more than it hurts me.

Scum ... :(

BTW - If those gloating at my loss are hiding their own losses by not admitting that they bought FTX at 1.70 ... they are doubly scum ;)







You were gloating as you bought off those who were losing money selling to you. You were really sticking to them over the last year on this thread and telling them you would eventually be rolling in it when Feltex recovered. You deserve a good ribbing.

Suck it up mother****er, you lost and lost handsomely.


Your Pal, Bongo

[The BOWMAN]

quote:Originally posted by Enumerate

No, the bank does not want a receivership. Imagine all the redundancy payments, reciever/liquidator fees, delays in capital repayment, tax liabilities, etc etc

It ia all about risk - doing a deal is the lower risk option. Even if the price is a significant interest holiday.

Turners should now put the heat on the ANX - GH is not necessarily in the picture anymore. Now is the time to exploit the information asymmetry ...


In this case, I think ANZ might just want to wrap it up quickly. They couldn't even wait to the end of the Friday and put out the 8am deadline. Also, did you watch Campbell Live tonight, the analyst (forgot the name already) reckons RECEIVERSHIP next Tuesday or Wednesday.

[winner69]

Not much new equity going in is there?

Looks like business as usual (and not looking too good on that front for a while for Feltex) while still paying interest on $130M plus - debt and convertible notes

[hairdresser]

ANZ were protecting their position by not allowing any further drawings in he event that GH withdrew thier offer and the Turners bid did not eventuate or was not not realistic.

I think that the ANZ would have to issue a demand for repayment before appointing a receiver and I think that if they had done this it would be announced to the market.

It appears that the Turners bid met all the ANZ's conditions. As the Turners have advised that they can make a their offer unconditional early next week they will probably wait before issuing a demand.

If the Turners cant get bank funding and a receiver is appointed the Turner consortium may be interested in purchasing from the recevier as well. They have the investors set up and they dont need money from the shareholders

[cantab]

http://www.tv3.co.nz/News/tabid/67/articleID/12941/Default.aspx

[Toddy]

Thanks for the link Cantab. It is sad when they interview grass root Kiwi's who have worked at the same place through thick and thin. They are the real losers as we are talking about dinner on the table and a roof over your head.

One thing though, they mentioned some workers are also shareholders. Didn't the Enron story ever make it to Danniverk.

I hope that the Turners can find the money and everyone lives happily ever after. But it will be against all odds.

[cantab]

Toddy, one has to feel for employees who are also shareholders - a real kick in the guts.

Interesting that institutions picked up on the holes in the roof when they toured the FTX buildings just prior to the IPO. Ma and Pa investors were sold a pup.

Yes, we can only hope that the Turners' bid will succeed. I would have thought that ANZ would see receivership as a last resort because of the time and cost involved, potential damage to the Feltex business and resale value thereof, also the bad PR in NZ for ANZ if they are seen to turn down a reasonable offer by some kiwis and then FTX gets sold to GH just down the road in Victoria. ANZ's FY ends on 30 Sept so if they can avoid a receivership situation then that would be cleaner in the accounts.

[winner69]

The caption says 'beacon of hope' but the picture does seem to communicate a sense of gloom


http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/fate-of-feltex-rescue-bid-hangs-in-the-balance/2006/09/08/1157222327894.html

[hairdresser]

Looks like TV3 and Mr Sheppard got it wrong.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10400514

I wonder if CBA's Mr Norris had any part in the Bank approval. He has had a little hands on experience in similar situations.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion


quote:Originally posted by winner69

Not much new equity going in is there?

Looks like business as usual (and not looking too good on that front for a while for Feltex) while still paying interest on $130M plus - debt and convertible notes


I think you overstate the debt just a tad if the T deal goes ahead ... But hey ... what's a few 10's of millions of debt between friends ... not like anyones going to pay it back ... ;)


I didn;t say debt was $130M belg .... I said that interest needs to be paid on $130M .... and that is not much different from the current situation is it. The terms of the convertible notes were not disclosed ... but I assume that the investors will want interest on them

OK ... call convertible notes equity ... debt then $90M

The annual result will see the writeoff of goodwill and a few other 'adjustments' ... do a proforma balance sheet mate and still very very leveraged eh .... even guru Shepherd doesn't seem to be impressed with the level of debt.

Interesting to see that Kim Ellis reported as one of the investors and touted to be the big boss .... my hero .... did wonders with Waste Management and got a fantastic price for the business .... but heck that alone will stop Bongo investing in a recapatilised Feltex.

No doubt if the ANZ gives it a go ahead we will get more detail ... hold judgement until then .... but I have a feeling that I'll be keeping the earmarked funds in OXR for a lot longer

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

And yet Sniper me ol'mate ... We are each doing our own thing ...

You ... Sniping and gutless and watching the Players
Me ... Playing

Same old, same old. :)


Don't kid yourself, Belgie that you have guts. A possum runs across the road and gets killed - that's guts too.

You are an idiot, a loser and a hypocrite - this whole saga shows that.

You made the wrong call on FTX - averaging down and then, lying about your entry price every step of the way. Where's your Scottish pride and self-respect?

I hope the Turners' deal go through - a few years of excitment playing the Feltex versus Cavalier versus Godfrey Hirst saga appeals to me greatly.

And there are those of us with our powder dry who will now reap the benefit.

BRING IT ON! [8D]

[kura]

Good article Cantab, yes I do feel for the workers who bought in at the IPO, they are in double jeopardy.

But having said that, the mercenary side of me recalls all the pain of restructuring from the Roger Douglas type reforms, and I wonder why the shareholders (and bank) should be asked to support the lifestyles of people in Dannyvirke (lovely place to live) when it would be more economical to shift the factory to China, and pay their "slave labour" type rates ?

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion


quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

belge, I only hope you have learned to never average down like those other idiots. macdunk


Sorry Mac, Never saw the post. Rest assured that Belgie is a canny scotsman who has worked with some of the best investment bankers in scotland. "Never buy squat unless there's assets behind it". To do them credit, they bought a queen's bank for one pound and pretended they were dutch. The irony is evident. This is but one hand. One it seems Im likely to lose. I can cope. Hey, I may even get even yet ;)

Good on you Belg, as I sure wouldn't have the balls to play your hand.

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by sniper
Don't kid yourself, Belgie that you have guts. A possum runs across the road and gets killed - that's guts too.



:D:D:D

he's good for a laugh though

keep it up Belg...you're the one that lives with your lies and hypocrisy:(

you are just becoming far too easy now with FTX AND MHI...same old all right;)

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Belgarion, tonight might be a good time to advise all your interested followers whether you have now sold your Feltex shares (at a small loss) or whether you are still holding (and perhaps have averaged down further?). Anything you say tomorrow might be less believable...

funny that;)

[whatsup]

Just a thaught As the ANZ bank is a Aussie bank whats the betting that they would have some preference for the assets of Feltex going to GH as its also a aussie company -another under arm action!!!!!!!!

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion


quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

belge, I only hope you have learned to never average down like those other idiots. macdunk


Sorry Mac, Never saw the post. Rest assured that Belgie is a canny scotsman who has worked with some of the best investment bankers in scotland. "Never buy squat unless there's assets behind it". To do them credit, they bought a queen's bank for one pound and pretended they were dutch. The irony is evident. This is but one hand. One it seems Im likely to lose. I can cope. Hey, I may even get even yet ;)



and he wrote this on the other FTX thread....

"Posted - 25/04/2003 : 08:08:33 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Given both NZ and OZ have just experienced a building boom of significant proportions, you'd have to assume that sales aren't going to hold up to current levels. If, and its a very big IF imho, building and renovations continue at their current levels, it might just make sense ... but, unlike TRH who has assets of considerable diversity (including lots of land), can you be assured that asset cover is sound ... I mean there are only so many buyer for carpet manufacturing equipment ... ...
... the big issue is building and renvovation activity ... both translate to sales
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Belgarion, taking the macro view ... Justice Matters! Honesty matters! Impeach Bush. Send Blair to the Hague



Hey, thats Belg though isn't it

arguing with himself;)

[Lizard]

quote:Originally posted by kura
Good on you Belg, as I sure wouldn't have the balls to play your hand.


Kura, if it's "balls" that are responsible for this style of investing then I am indeed truly grateful that nature did not endow me with any!

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard


quote:Originally posted by kura
Good on you Belg, as I sure wouldn't have the balls to play your hand.


Kura, if it's "balls" that are responsible for this style of investing then I am indeed truly grateful that nature did not endow me with any!

Gee, sorry to hear about your affliction Lizard, are there any support groups for people with a similar condition ? or do you need ongoing counselling ? I suppose your voice never dropped when you were growing up either ? Must have been tough at school, as kids can be so cruel !

[Lizard]

Yes, and my mother made all my dresses which was the worst part....;) Cheers, Liz

[Base Trader]

As I see it with the Turners offer the syndicate will have (including the warrants) right to 70% of Feltex ownership if the rights issue is fully subscribed. If under nsubscribed ownership will be higher for Turners and co.

Shareholders will need to consider if they wish to inject a further 10c per share.

The convertables will reduce current shareholders to a subordinated position prior to conversion and I will be interested to see where their relative position will be to trade debtors.

However, Feltex will still be lumbering around $90m in debt which appears too high on recent performance. Clearly the Turners plan also has rationalisation involved otherwise it could not be bankable - but I guess that it is probably politically insensitive for Turners to discuss this issue at this juncture.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Base Trader

However, Feltex will still be lumbering around $90m in debt which appears too high on recent performance. Clearly the Turners plan also has rationalisation involved otherwise it could not be bankable - but I guess that it is probably politically insensitive for Turners to discuss this issue at this juncture.




No doubt rationalisation is part of the plan

Myabe they even intend to make Feltex a true NZ company ...... eg get rid of some of the OZ operations ... and maybe GH is playing a part already

[hairdresser]

The new debt levels wont be that scary when you consider the following:

1. FTX are through the worst and have paid their restructuring costs.
2. The extra $10m or so of seasonal funding is self liquidating ie it will clear automatically when credit terms are restored, and as debtors and inventory reduce as retailers pay for and take delivery of their stock.
3. The $50m of new capital should take core debt down to $75m [back to where they were before the $22m dividend wrought and the restructuring costs].
4. Interest expense will be around $6m.
5. Recent trading indicates annualised EBITDA of $25m excluding one offs. This would make interest cover around 4 times.

Dont expect a dividend anytime soon

NB My view is still that the current situaion at FTX is consistent with senior managers providing inflated forecasts to enable them to lower manufaturing costs [albeit temporarily] in order to receive bonuses and a high dividend payout. And that is why they are no longer with the company.

I would like to add that the posts on this forum are generally far better than the "business commentary" that is served up in the media. But then the forum doesn't exist to sell advertising.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by hairdresser



1. FTX are through the worst and have paid their restructuring costs.




Have you factored in 'future' restructuring and rationalisation ... bound to be some more of that to come

And what about capex ..... hardly spent anything the last 12 months (like H1 was just over a $1M) ,..... factories need money spent on them don't they

No dividends for shareholders .... wonder the new investors are getting on their notes? .... hairdresser, you didn't seem to factor that in

[hairdresser]

Good points on dividends, preference shares, restructuring and CAPEX

Re future restructuring:
I am assuming that this would only occur if the benefits are positive for earnings ie that the savings outweigh the intial costs. This seems to mean more upside in earnings.

Re Dividends
The TWR share price has recovered nicely since its lows without paying a dividend.

Re CAPEX
Carpet manufacturing equipment lasts for decades if maintained. It is not a high tech industry.
High Capex should only occur when FTX are adding capacity, I think FTX are doing the reverse so low CAPEX seems reasonable. A more usful measure for FTX would be expenditure on repairs and maintenance, I would be concerned if this was being reduced.

Notes
I dont think they will be getting anything on their notes as the bank wouldn't like it. It will mean that they get paid out before us in the event of any wind up.


Also

In a downturn manufacturing companies like FTX [high fixed costs] are able to generate positive cshflows from reductions in debtors and inventories as production is wound back, profitability suffers but recovers in the next upstage of the business cycle. This doesn't happen over night but it does happen. It seems ironic but the more profitable FTX are the more cash they need, ie increased inventory and debtors tie up cash.

[sniper]

Still waiting for your answer, Hairdresser, on how you got your sustainable NPAT of $7.5m before recapitalisation.

Answer that question and we may actually believe you know what you are talking about.


quote:Originally posted by sniper


quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

Is the value of FTX greater than zero?

Current Position
Sustainable NPAT of $7.5m with current funding structure
Interest expense $120m x .08 = $9. 6m
Depreciation $5m pa and matches fixed asset replacement over time
Goodwill and one off expenses are ignored
EPS = $7.5/150 = 5.0c [but the bank is unhappy]



How did u get sustainable NPAT of $7.5m?

FTX has stated that normalised EBITDA was $20m to $21m. Let's call it $21m.

EBITDA = $21m less depreciation of $6m = EBIT of $15m.
Interest = $128m @ 8.0% = $10m.
So NPBT = $5m.

BUT earnings include $5.3m of subsidy so real earnings &lt;$0m.

Love to see how you got your $7.5m.

Found the numbers in one of your customers' hair? ;)

[hairdresser]

Fair question. It's been a busy week.

Answer
I'm not just looking at the last years results.

My view is the recent blip in 2005 was due to manufacturing for inventory in 2004 so to smooth this out the bumps I have looked at the averages over the last 4 years [table follows]. Bear in mind this was during the peak of the business cycle.

I have used calendar years as the Jun 06 numbers are not available. All in millions

Calendar Year Revenue EBITDA Margin
2002............315........31.........9.8%
2003............322........44.........13.7%
2004............327........43.........13.1%
2005............273........14.........5.1%
Average.......309..........34........10.7%

Average EBITDA of $34m and a margin of 10%. Even on reduced sales of $250m during the low point of the cycle EBITDA of $25m should be sustainable [especially with the margin improvements after the last round of restructuring].

Even if you factor in an EBITDA of zero for Jun 06 half year the average is still $30m.

Check the CAV accounts if you like to compare the %ages. CAV get around 20% margin so even with FTX I am happy that 10% is not an over estimate and it shouldn't take a rocket scientist to improve the margin.

Interest costs of $85m x 8% = $6.8m

Depn of $6m

This leaves NPBT of around $12m

Take out $1m for amortisation (NB non-deductible)

NPAT = $7.5m give or take a few hundred k

I would be reluctant to value any company on its profitabilty at the bottom of the cycle.

NB I havent factored in any payouts to current directors and/or CEO, bank establishment costs and I hope they are able to preserve their stamp duty for the security given over their Australian assets. Anyway these are one offs and quite small over time.

Unfortunately some of my clients were in this at the start as a result of poor advice from supposed professionals.

[The Doctor]

STOP KIDDING YOURSELVES...FTX...'flyblown![B)]

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Yes, and my mother made all my dresses which was the worst part....;) Cheers, Liz

I recall my mum telling me she was teased at school, when it was discovered that her underpants were made out of used cotton flour bags. (Depression time)
I can also recall her telling me about another girl who started school the same day as her, she must have had big legs, as she was nicknamed "strainer post legs" (rural community) (my mum and strainer post legs are still in contact with each other, 70 years on ! )
Yep, kids sure can be cruel !

In case anyone thinks I am drifting a tad off topic, an idle reminissance, is about as usefull as the idle speculation about FTX in the absence of more concrete details.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by hairdresser
Unfortunately some of my clients were in this at the start as a result of poor advice from supposed professionals.


So they took a haircut then? ;)

Apologies in advance ... :D

[TheGuv]

quote:Just a thaught As the ANZ bank is a Aussie bank whats the betting that they would have some preference for the assets of Feltex going to GH as its also a aussie company -another under arm action!!!!!!!!

bankers are generally cold unemotional bastards - they'll go for whatever result is most expedient and costs them less. no-one can blame them for protecting their position.

I kissed my small <s>investment</s> err gamble in FTX goodbye a long time ago having bought in at .60. it's been a very interesting learning game for me as a neophyte, and was the only *emotive* buy I've made - rewarding me with the biggest loss. I decided to ride it on down instead of averaging down (I couldn't find any good argument or recommendation for averaging down wherever I looked/read/talked)... so given it's gambling dead money, I couldn't back the GH "offer" on principle! especially as there is no offer as of today. =to expand - voting on a result of "anything from .12cps down to zero for these people to walk away and break it up, while they eliminate competition and chuck peoples jobs. Hmmmm - I can afford to lose the 10cps-odd I currently see to vote against that, and let the bank pressure to avoid the firesale scenario they'd prefer to avoid. or put differently - vote to let them take my shirt, or probably lose it anyway? I'll keep the luck on my side (and that's about all there is - luck). This is an *emotive* response, granted - in line with my emotive buy.

I'd like to see the Turners succeed, and would likely take up a rights offer on my meagre holding (especially given that I see it as zero worth and all wholly gambled) just for the hell of it. I may even average down if this thing gets off the ground - but only on an upward trend. If it ever made it back to .60cps, I'd not be crowing about it at all. There are likely better investments to be made with faster turnaround - this is education money now, to me.

Belge, I've enjoyed your arguments, and can get past the vitriol of the other jousters here. I'm learning a good deal from all on this thread - wish I didn't need to constantly sluice away the acid and bile from everyone else though! it sure gets personal. :(

regards...

PS - I'd vote to get some decent directors in - I should imagine the management would be very quickly sorted out by the Turners in the event of a successful bid.

PPS - note this is different from "let's get rid of those idiots on the FTX board!" - we'd actually need some savvy directors (surgeons) willing to get in there and be associated with the turnaround.

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Capex ... W69, my research on carpet making equipment agrees with HD's. Carpet machines can be 30 years old and still have significant economic value over another 30 years.


BOLLOCKS.

Carpet machinery ages just like other mechanical equipment, and is more labour intensive.

Like a 30 year old car. Yes it can be made to run another 30 years, but the maintenance bill increases, it breaks down more often, is inefficient to run, and is left for dead on the road by modern cars. There's also the increasing risk of the car unable to obtain a warranty without a time consuming and costly overhaul.

Carpet manufacturers with more modern equipment would be far more efficient than Feltex, including the Chinese mills.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Heavy Metal


quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Capex ... W69, my research on carpet making equipment agrees with HD's. Carpet machines can be 30 years old and still have significant economic value over another 30 years.


BOLLOCKS.

Carpet machinery ages just like other mechanical equipment, and is more labour intensive.

Like a 30 year old car. Yes it can be made to run another 30 years, but the maintenance bill increases, it breaks down more often, is inefficient to run, and is left for dead on the road by modern cars. There's also the increasing risk of the car unable to obtain a warranty without a time consuming and costly overhaul.

Carpet manufacturers with more modern equipment would be far more efficient than Feltex, including the Chinese mills.


Suppose that bold statement of Heavy Metal's really means belg doesn't really know what he is talking about.

You do seem to get the impression that belg / hairdresser are trying to justify to themselves the position they have got themselves into ... some of their forecasts are about as outrageous as those in the prospectus.

Heavy Metal ... you are right .... you don't keep $60M worth of plant operating without spending more capital .... minimum capex is usually is what the depreciation bill is .... like $6M .... and believe me there is a bit of catching up to be done .... according to the boys at Lower Hutt capex has been zilch and only essential R&M (like the bare minimum to get things broken to work again ... the cheapest way) has been done over the last year.

[hairdresser]

Arbitrage Anyone??

NZ Herald Monday 11th Sep

"In the interests of all parties we would like to see Feltex's future confirmed within the next few days subject only to shareholder approval," said the Turner brothers in a statement.

Translation “ there are a couple of days for investors to build up a holding large enough to block any counter offers from GH or to force GH to submit a reasonable counter offer”

Assume:
1. GH still wants to buy FTX [full takeover] and were prepared to pay up to 60cps in March
2. Turners and investors have ensured a forced sale will not occur
3. Turners and investors either want to buy FTX or male some money
4. Other players in the financial markets know this

A 25% stake would be enough to block a full takeover by GH, and this represents around 37m shares. I suspect that there has already been some accumulation already. Remember, some of the players were encouraging investors to sell last week and other players are now downplaying the value of the Turners offer. I expect that once they have accumualted their own stakes they will be encouraging investors to buy "to keep FTX in NZ hands".

If the players can accumulate a blocking share they will be able to either 1) block any counter offer from GH or 2) realise a fair price for FTX and make a tidy profit along the way.

These factors may be quite positive for the share price in the short term.

Hopefully the independent advisors report will include a valuation based on “willing buyer - willing seller” and a comment on the value of “premium for control” for another industry participant.

I’m not recommending that anyone chase the shares, if you dont' like the risk return don't play.

It would be nice to see the Kiwis outsmart the Aussies.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion


quote:Suppose that bold statement of Heavy Metal's really means belg doesn't really know what he is talking about.

I guess I'll have to shout louder then.

As HM is an expert in carpet manufacture then he could show us the numbers on some a typical type of carpet machine. He might also try a quick look over other carpet manufacturers and see how old some of their equipment is. Regards.


Not arguing about the age of some of the machines or whatever.... only pointing out that any manufacturing plant (whether it is new or old) needs ongoing capex to keep it going .... and feltex ain't been spending lately

[metro]

Interesting there is little comment about Credit Suisse Asian Partners (Vendor), First NZ Caspital (formerly Credit Suisse First Boston) and Forsyth Barr's (joint Organising broker) role in all of this?

So they knew nothing at the time of the float? Toured the factories? Saw the holes in the roof etc...but knew nothing?

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by hairdresser
Calendar Year Revenue EBITDA Margin
2002............315........31.........9.8%
2003............322........44.........13.7%
2004............327........43.........13.1%
2005............273........14.........5.1%
Average.......309..........34........10.7%

Average EBITDA of $34m and a margin of 10%. Even on reduced sales of $250m during the low point of the cycle EBITDA of $25m should be sustainable [especially with the margin improvements after the last round of restructuring].


WARNING WARNING number fudgers approaching

Immediate floored logic there HD...you can try to juxtapose the last 4 years to your figures going forward but you have 03-04 which were 'fantastic' years in the middle of a housing boom distorting what is happening right now.
From your assumption, you are leading us to believe that margins will MORE THAN DOUBLE because past margins will have FTX returning to the mean within 12 months??

The environment going forward is NOT about to get better in a hurry...no matter how much work you do on the "numbers"

Suggestion, ask your buddy Belgor for a copy of his spreadsheet and book some tickets to Kansas.

[Pennywise]

If you want a demonstration of what Belgarion really understands about FTX "assets"...then this is just the ticket. Before he got involved in FTX he actually warned himself about getting involved in plays for companys WITHOUT REAL ASSET BACKING. Monday morning laugh

quote:
Originally posted by belgarion
Sorry Mac, Never saw the post. Rest assured that Belgie is a canny scotsman who has worked with some of the best investment bankers in scotland. "Never buy squat unless there's assets behind it". To do them credit, they bought a queen's bank for one pound and pretended they were dutch. The irony is evident. This is but one hand. One it seems Im likely to lose. I can cope. Hey, I may even get even yet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
and he wrote this on the other FTX thread....

"Posted - 25/04/2003 : 08:08:33 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Given both NZ and OZ have just experienced a building boom of significant proportions, you'd have to assume that sales aren't going to hold up to current levels. If, and its a very big IF imho, building and renovations continue at their current levels, it might just make sense ... but, unlike TRH who has assets of considerable diversity (including lots of land), can you be assured that asset cover is sound ... I mean there are only so many buyer for carpet manufacturing equipment ... ... ... the big issue is building and renvovation activity ... both translate to sales
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Belgarion, taking the macro view ... Justice Matters! Honesty matters! Impeach Bush. Send Blair to the Hague



:D how do you do it Belg? keep talking whilst shoving that foot deeper into the mouth[:p]

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion


quote:Suppose that bold statement of Heavy Metal's really means belg doesn't really know what he is talking about.

I guess I'll have to shout louder then.

As HM is an expert in carpet manufacture then he could show us the numbers on some a typical type of carpet machine. He might also try a quick look over other carpet manufacturers and see how old some of their equipment is. Regards.


Belg, you've never been to any of Feltex's factories have you? It is ironic you mention CAV equipment in the MOTAT museum because the Upper Riccarton plant looks like one large museum! Oh, and when I last checked the factories don't run 24/7. Nowhere near it in fact.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

For your information please find below background on the Core Investors backing the Turners rescue bid for Feltex.

_______________________________________



BACKGROUND ON THE CORE INVESTORS



Andrew Bagnall (BCom, MBA, MNZIT): Until very recently, Andrew Bagnall was, via related companies, the cornerstone shareholder and managing director of the listed company Gullivers Travel Group Limited (Gullivers).

Andrew Bagnall graduated from Otago University in 1969. He was initially employed as Marketing Manager for Atlantic & Pacific Travel. In 1972 he completed his MBA at Michigan State University. Andrew then returned to Atlantic & Pacific where he was instrumental in developing the major tour product, London Shoppe, and Getaway Holidays.

In 1976, Andrew left Atlantic & Pacific and set up his own tour company, Gullivers Travel. In 1980 he established Budget Travel and subsequently continued to expand the Group, both by organic growth and by acquisitions (including Atlantic Pacific, Signature Travel, Synergi Travel and Passport United) into the largest travel group in New Zealand. Andrew also provides advice to industry bodies and government.

Cliff Cook has over 29 years experience in the private healthcare industry and was the founder of Metlifecare Limited (Metlifecare) (a New Zealand listed company). He is a founding member of The Retirement Villages Association of New Zealand Inc and served as its President for 11 years. For three years he served as Immediate Past President. He was a founding member of New Zealand Licensed Rest Home Association (Inc.), subsequently Residential Care NZ Inc. and now HealthCare Providers New Zealand and has served on the Association's national executive. He has also worked in a number of industry advisory roles.


Graeme Bowkett was a founding director and shareholder of Waste Management N.Z Limited (recently amalgamated with Transpacific Industries Group (NZ) Limited, an Australasian waste services company, and the largest waste management and resource recovery service provider in New Zealand). Graeme Bowkett has 30 years experience in the waste management industry including as CEO of Waste Management and Regional Operations Manager with Pacific Waste Management Pty Limited.


D.B. Zwirn: D.B. Zwirn & Co., L.P., a global alternative investment manager and merchant capital provider, manages a series of global multi-strategy opportunities funds. D.B. Zwirn & Co., L.P. currently manages over US$4.8 billion and along with its affiliates has offices in New York City, Houston, Stamford, London, Frankfurt, Milan, Tel Aviv, Hong Kong, Beijing, Melbourne, Singapore, Seoul, Taipei, Tokyo and Mexico City.


(One of the emails you got if you registered...)


And Kim Ellis the guru from Waste Management rumoured to be the head honcho if the deal goes ahead

[Pennywise]

Belgarion said "the big issue is building and renvovation activity ... both translate to sales"

From our property thread...
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2006/08/20/1156012414995.html?from=top5
http://www.jenman.com.au/NewsNews1.php?id=370
http://www.jenman.com.au/NewsNews1.php?id=308
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Borrowers-lose-homes-at-record-rates/2006/09/10/1157826797663.html


Belg, come on, on property threads you are predicting housing doom and gloom and now you can't even discuss things that you have brought up regarding Feltex key issues, ie. the state of the housing market in Australia where 75% of FTX sales are from. Now because some so called 'savvy' business people in unrelated industries got sucked into the carpet roll, by association, you are now a smart investor?

Who is kidding who?
Maybe THEY are smart because they have bought under 10c? I don't think you ever intended to have so much of your portfolio resting on a carpet roll considering the immediate future of this business in the upcoming environment. I believe we are heading for the WORST period this industry has ever gone through for 07-08.



anyway, as I said, HD and Belg both masters with the 'fudge'

sorry, but this whole thing is doomed...the timing was just way too good for the promoters.

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion
If races above 12 cents without rumour then I'll book some profits and wait for rights trading. Whatever happens - volume is likely to bepathetic. Regards.


translation, "I'm in so deep, I don't really believe in it enough to stump up another $200,000"




btw folks...Belgarion has averaged down from 13.7c to 12c:D

so to do that he had to buy about another 1,500,000 shares at average 10.3c...
btw, check the volume under 10c and you will see why the golden spreadsheet is so valuable.

so 2,800,000-3,000,0000 shares Belg?

x10c...ouch! that's getting toppy eh;)

[Snow Leopard]

Well this thread is amusing but not very useful.

At this moment in time there are a number of possibilities for Feltex and it's shares.
Amongst those are possibilities that would render said shares worthless in the near future. You need to be willing to risk every cent you have in this one at the moment.

If the Turners deal is approved by the ANZ (the big obstacle) and the shareholders (probably a lessor obstacle) then the terms of the deal may make this a worth while home for some money.

When there is some certainity and some hard facts on the deal and the current state of the company, then we can make informed decisions.

Until then.

[winner69]

Pennywise ... didn't FPA mention worst trading conditions since the oil spike in the 70's ... and they know what they are talking about

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

Re CAPEX
Carpet manufacturing equipment lasts for decades if maintained. It is not a high tech industry.
High Capex should only occur when FTX are adding capacity, I think FTX are doing the reverse so low CAPEX seems reasonable. A more usful measure for FTX would be expenditure on repairs and maintenance, I would be concerned if this was being reduced.


Well you shouldn't be concerned. Since FTX are running their aging equipment into the ground it is a given that R&M costs will be increasing. As will unscheduled downtime, production delays and inefficiencies.

There may be several reasons that make FTX a buy at the moment. Capex reduction is NOT one of them. No capex means FTX are condemned to always being less efficient than the competition and will accelerate the company's decline towards oblivion.

[Pennywise]

well...NO

surely Belg has the inside here

he must hold nearly 2% if we are to believe his average of 12c
(maybe slighty less if he got a few under 10c) so have you contacted the Turners offering your 2% support?

how many do you hold now Belg?

[barnsley bill]

if the companies office data is upto date regarding largest shareholders then this company does not have any very big holders at all. The biggest holder had just over 6 million of a possible 149 million;

Share Parcels ( This company is either listed on the stock exchange or has extensive shareholdings and only the ten largest share parcels have been entered. To obtain a full list of shareholders please contact the company directly.)
Total Number of shares 149,411,870

Number of Shares 6,260,136
Shareholder(s) 644859 - NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL SECURITIES DEPOSITORY LIMITED 2 The Terrace, Wellington

Number of Shares 4,238,176
Shareholder(s) 1185808 - FIRST NZ CAPITAL CUSTODIANS LIMITED Level 10, Caltex Tower, 282-292 Lambton Quay, Wellington

Number of Shares 3,958,980
Shareholder(s) HUBBARD, Allan James Margaret Jane 6 Morgans Street, Timuru, 8601

Number of Shares 3,339,148
Shareholder(s) 148341 - FORBAR CUSTODIANS LIMITED Forsyth Barr House, Cnr Octagon & Stuart Street, Dunedin

Number of Shares 2,147,879
Shareholder(s) 968533 - LEVERAGED EQUITIES FINANCE LIMITED Level 8, Forsyth Barr House, Cnr Lambton Quay & Johnston St, Wellinton

Number of Shares 1,908,860
Shareholder(s) MCGOWAN, Paul David 74 Mabers Road, Clarkville, Kaiapoi, 8252

Number of Shares 1,777,426
Shareholder(s) HENDRY NOMINEES LIMITED Abn Amro Craigs House, 158 Cameron Street, Tauranga, 3001

Number of Shares 1,751,574
Shareholder(s) 1185808 - FIRST NZ CAPITAL CUSTODIANS LIMITED Level 10, Caltex Tower, 282-292 Lambton Quay, Wellington

Number of Shares 1,570,000
Shareholder(s) PATEL, Hemat Lal 35 Aldersgate Road, Hillsborough, Auckland, 10004

Number of Shares 1,073,716
Shareholder(s) BRIGGS, Philip Robert Pamela Annette 46 Moa Avenue, Blackpool, Waiheke Island, 1240

Does anybody with access to the registry know how many individual share holders there are?
Any vote to accept an offer is going to be fun with this many people involved..

[kura]

So much for the article this morning, that said ANZ would announce it's verdict on proposal today, must be a case of no news being good news.

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by kura

So much for the article this morning, that said ANZ would announce it's verdict on proposal today, must be a case of no news being good news.


only 4.20 in melbourne

[Pennywise]

Thanks BB, we will watch the list very closely.

Can you provide an update in the future so we can compare the list.


With his recent boasting and $$ spent + his so called average of 12c...he will be appearing in that list soon;) because if he doesn't, it will prove he is full of BS.

He has at least 2,000,000 shares at present, if not 2.5m + if he really did buy in the recent slide.


[^]fun and games

[sniper]

Well, we know all the others so Belgarion can only be :

MCGOWAN, Paul David from Kaiapo.

Either that or his spreadsheet has just been sent to MicroSoft as it is unquestionably a work of pure financial genius. :D

What a loser .....

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

And the deal is so sweet for GH that one wonders just what these people are getting out of it ...

"Cash-flow positive" and no attempt at a rights issue?

Current accounts showing hugh one-offs and perious debt and holders are being asked to make a call before we see whether the management restructuring and huge redundacnies are paying off?

Not selling anything until I see the audited books for the last 12 months!

If FTX is cash flow positive, a rights issue to pair down some debt and then tight cashflow mamagement for 3-5 years, no dividends but some capital gain, say 10-20% per year ... works for me.

I want to see the books ... Im sick of Sniper's "one-eyed" accounting that is largely based on out-of-date info that isn't showing the effects of management's re-structuring ...

Don't sell holders ... Wait for the audited books!

FTX management - you suck - Show us the books before you show us the GH offer!


Results out soon and we shall see whether anyone should have listened to the spreadsheet genius Belgarion. :D

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by Pennywise

Thanks BB, we will watch the list very closely.

Can you provide an update in the future so we can compare the list.


With his recent boasting and $$ spent + his so called average of 12c...he will be appearing in that list soon;) because if he doesn't, it will prove he is full of BS.

He has at least 2,000,000 shares at present, if not 2.5m + if he really did buy in the recent slide.


[^]fun and games


if you look back far enough he was buying over 50c (allegedly:D)

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by sniper


Well, we know all the others so Belgarion can only be :

MCGOWAN, Paul David from Kaiapo.

Either that or his spreadsheet has just been sent to MicroSoft as it is unquestionably a work of pure financial genius. :D

What a loser .....

Wouldnt Belg be "buried" within the Central Securities Depository figure, as I thought that was where all the small plebs were included, but trouble with that theory is that it is such a small % of total shares on issue ?
Maybe someone could elucidate the NZX shareholding rules to me, and how they interact with Central Securities Depository ? As I don't really understand them (mainly trade ASX)

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by kura


quote:Originally posted by sniper


Well, we know all the others so Belgarion can only be :

MCGOWAN, Paul David from Kaiapo.

Either that or his spreadsheet has just been sent to MicroSoft as it is unquestionably a work of pure financial genius. :D

What a loser .....

Wouldnt Belg be "buried" within the Central Securities Depository figure, as I thought that was where all the small plebs were included, but trouble with that theory is that it is such a small % of total shares on issue ?
Maybe someone could elucidate the NZX shareholding rules to me, and how they interact with Central Securities Depository ? As I don't really understand them (mainly trade ASX)


I wonder which of the list are his much mentioned "rich friends"??

[sniper]

quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by sniper


quote:Originally posted by belgarion

My, my. The game isn't over yet and already the gloating has begun.

Jolly: I think we are up to about Act III of a four part play.

Ain't all over until the fat lady sings ... That usually happens at the end of act four (according to jolly anyway).

discl: hold at average price of 13.7 cents, dollars spent in six figures, dollars held in reserve for recapitalisation, 4 times dollars spent. The last act of the play is usually the most interesting but the suspence is killing me ...


So 13.7 cents on 27 July 2006 - say $150,000 spent.

Share prices over next few days :

28 July 13c
31 July 12c
1 Aug 13c
2 Aug 9c
3 Aug 10.4c
4 Aug 10.8c
7 Aug 12c

Let's assume he picks the average of 1 Aug to 4 Aug to buy - so 10.8c on average.

Guess how many more shares he has to buy to bring his average down to 12.1c?

We are waiting for your answer, Belgarion.




about 1.26 million ..... do i get the chocolate fish?


The spreadsheet genius says he has averaged down further ... so his shaereholding now will be at least 3 million shares to get his average entry price to below 12 cents.

Just keeping score on this fraudster. :D

[Snow Leopard]

Of course $1234.56 is six figures ;)

[Pennywise]

:D:D:D:D

true

[COLIN]

Wouldnt Belg be "buried" within the Central Securities Depository figure, as I thought that was where all the small plebs were included, but trouble with that theory is that it is such a small % of total shares on issue ?
Maybe someone could elucidate the NZX shareholding rules to me, and how they interact with Central Securities Depository ? As I don't really understand them (mainly trade ASX)
[/quote]

Kura, its generally institutions who hold through the CSD.

[Heavy Metal]

Surprised that well heralded investors like Phil Briggs and Alan Hubbard are on that list. Seems that even the best investors were hoodwinked by the CSFB hype.

Belgarion is in esteemed company!

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by COLIN



Wouldnt Belg be "buried" within the Central Securities Depository figure, as I thought that was where all the small plebs were included, but trouble with that theory is that it is such a small % of total shares on issue ?
Maybe someone could elucidate the NZX shareholding rules to me, and how they interact with Central Securities Depository ? As I don't really understand them (mainly trade ASX)


Kura, its generally institutions who hold through the CSD.
[/quote]
correct...
I think his are held by the ....I made it up securities depository...

[The BOWMAN]

How old are you guys? Really, I am sick of all the posts targeted at Belgarion. What is the point of calculating how much Belg lost??? Does that make you feel richer or something? If so, I suggest you go live close to the sky city and go to the casino standing beside the tables watching people losing money every night. I am sure you will be able to go to sleep with big smile every day if that is your thing.

[kura]

Sorry BB I'm still confused, what do you mean by your statement that you "made up securities depository" ?

It was my understanding that back when actual share certificates were disposed of, (and FIN & CSN numbers brought in) that most of peoples holdings would be through CSD, but now I'm told this is mainly insto's ??

Hmm, utterly confused, though I would never make the top 20 holders myself, so don't bother waiting for K turn up on the list.

Disc: K once held 500,000 shares in a small unloved ASX company (AMU) (cost 9 cents) that would have just got me onto the top 20 listing, but I sold down prior to annual report time, so never got my name into print. (Got cold feet, thinking that it was too much of a punt on one company) (Sniffle sniffle, now trading at about a dollar each)

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by The BOWMAN

How old are you guys? Really, I am sick of all the posts targeted at Belgarion. What is the point of calculating how much Belg lost??? Does that make you feel richer or something? If so, I suggest you go live close to the sky city and go to the casino standing beside the tables watching people losing money every night. I am sure you will be able to go to sleep with big smile every day if that is your thing.


I see your point of view bowman and normally would agree with you. But perhaps if you had been following this thread for a few months, and read the posts by belg where he mocked mums and dads and talked himself up ad nauseum regarding his brilliance and everybody elses stupidity for either not buying this dog or stupidity for selling. Then perhaps you would be slightly less peeved at those of us who have followed the thread and are now enjoying watching "him "hoist on his own petard".

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by kura

Sorry BB I'm still confused, what do you mean by your statement that you "made up securities depository" ?

It was my understanding that back when actual share certificates were disposed of, (and FIN & CSN numbers brought in) that most of peoples holdings would be through CSD, but now I'm told this is mainly insto's ??

Hmm, utterly confused, though I would never make the top 20 holders myself, so don't bother waiting for K turn up on the list.


Disc: K once held 500,000 shares in a small unloved ASX company (AMU) (cost 9 cents) that would have just got me onto the top 20 listing, but I sold down prior to annual report time, so never got my name into print. (Got cold feet, thinking that it was too much of a punt on one company) (Sniffle sniffle, now trading at about a dollar each)

I was alluding to my and many others belief that he has uttered untruths right through the thread about his holding in ftx .. sorry if I was not being very clear.

[moimoi]

hi kura..........not sure that i'm much help to you here but i thought the CSD held stock for mainly insto's and those trading on margin??
I would have thought that the majority of mums and dads holdings are in their personal/trusts names.....

[?]moi

[kura]

quote:[i]Originally posted by barnsley bill
I was alluding to my and many others belief that he has uttered untruths right through the thread about his holding in ftx .. sorry if I was not being very clear.

OK, I think my dim brown braincells now comprehend, just please dont be so obtuse/esoteric in the future, as it would really help simpletons like me, Thanks

PS: I think it is good to have guys like Belg to argue with, as robust discussion is surely what this kind of forum is all about. Sure, it's a pity that there is some B/S involved, you kind of expect it to some extent, I'm more than ready to "fess up" to my mistakes, as if I can't admit my mistakes to a bunch of anonymous posters, then I can't admit them to myself. (And if I can't be honest with myself, it's just a receipe for disaster)

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by The BOWMAN

How old are you guys? Really, I am sick of all the posts targeted at Belgarion. What is the point of calculating how much Belg lost??? Does that make you feel richer or something? If so, I suggest you go live close to the sky city and go to the casino standing beside the tables watching people losing money every night. I am sure you will be able to go to sleep with big smile every day if that is your thing.


whoa, BOWMAN is angry, why so Bowman? You sound overly concerned for Belgarion. I hope you don't have an unhealthy interest in this stock and I really hope you didn't follow the Belg hype into it from 60? 30s? 20s?.

Belg has not lost anything, he still holds the lot:D

We are just looking for him on the register, which will be very very easy very soon and lots of fun. He isn't there yet, we know that much;)

and to answer all your questions =

Newtons Law my friend.

[trackers]

quote:Originally posted by Heavy Metal


quote:Originally posted by belgarion


quote:Suppose that bold statement of Heavy Metal's really means belg doesn't really know what he is talking about.

I guess I'll have to shout louder then.

As HM is an expert in carpet manufacture then he could show us the numbers on some a typical type of carpet machine. He might also try a quick look over other carpet manufacturers and see how old some of their equipment is. Regards.


Belg, you've never been to any of Feltex's factories have you? It is ironic you mention CAV equipment in the MOTAT museum because the Upper Riccarton plant looks like one large museum! Oh, and when I last checked the factories don't run 24/7. Nowhere near it in fact.


Quite familiar with that territory, its in Avonhead near uni - The plant may be a little antiquated, but I'd love to own the land under it

[Snow Leopard]

Mere idle conversation whilst waiting for the bus to arrive.
It could be a long and tedious wait.

[minimoke]

An update:

GENERAL: FTX: UPDATE - TURNER PROPOSAL 10:46am
FTX
13/09/2006
GENERAL

REL: 1046 HRS Feltex Carpets Limited

GENERAL: FTX: UPDATE - TURNER PROPOSAL

Constructive discussions are continuing with the ANZ Bank and the Turners in relation to the Turner proposal and variants of it which would provide substantially the same outcome to shareholders. It is hoped to make a further announcement later today or tomorrow morning. "


In whose opinion will the outcome be the same for the shareholders. ANZ / Board/ Turners/ GH??

[Lizard]

I think this delay in the provision of annual accounts on the basis of whether or not Feltex should be priced as a going concern is a little farcical. Perhaps they could be asked to provide both options given that these are substantially completed? Or perhaps the cashflow statement could be released given that is of critical importance here to shareholders trying to adjudge their position?

Also, should we take the statement below to reflect the odds Feltex directors and auditors still feel are associated with their future?


quote:10. As a result of the fundamental uncertainty currently surrounding the future of FTX, there is a reasonable (50%) likelihood that the information in any Preliminary Announcement made before a decision as to FTX's future will be inconsistent with the information to be contained in FTX's annual report to be provided in accordance with Rule 10.5.1 (the Annual Report).

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Mere idle conversation whilst waiting for the bus to arrive.
It could be a long and tedious wait.



Quite correct PT, but it helps pass the tediom, particularly when confronted by things like todays announcement of "discussions are continuing" which is so utterly usefull, that I am at a loss for an adequate adjective !

[biker]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard


quote:10. As a result of the fundamental uncertainty currently surrounding the future of FTX, there is a reasonable (50%) likelihood that the information in any Preliminary Announcement made before a decision as to FTX's future will be inconsistent with the information to be contained in FTX's annual report to be provided in accordance with Rule 10.5.1 (the Annual Report).


Same odds at the casino if you bet on red or black but if you win you double your money.Why bet on feltex with the same odds,the same downside and very little upside?

Nowt as queer as folks

[Pennywise]

That brings us on to the name Credit Suisse First Boston Asian Merchant Partners which has come to light as the promoters of an initial public offering of Feltex Carpets Ltd. CSFB(AMP) apparently bought the equity capital of Feltex over time from 1996 for an aggregate of $22m and then sold it via this public issue around June 2004 for over $200m and the value of this equity in the public hands has now almost returned back to the $22m. Quite an imposing roller coaster! The Securities Commission exempted CSFB from nominating a share price and telling about themselves by way of the Commission's notice No 2004/103 so the promoters could have a good old book build it would appear. It is hard for critics to lampoon the share price when they don't know what it is. The Commission does not seem to be interested in taking a closer look at the prospectus at this stage. Perhaps the chairwoman is away fulfilling her international obligations as re-elected chairwoman of the IOSCO. NZ possibly has to wait for her attention. They only get 3 years to prosecute for insider trading and in the Tranz Rail case they missed the bus by a country mile.

There is a copy of the Feltex prospectus of 2004 on its web site. We have had a look at it and are not impressed. The Auditors, as one might expect if a publication turns out to be controversial, were Ernst and Young,. There is no identification of the partner or partners involved as with public sector audits, just a signature as if the firm was a person.

The Promoters were actually Credit Suisse First Boston Private Equity, a complex offshoot of CSFB which we found out is a long standing Swiss institution, the place where the Fay Richwhite partners also tend to hang out these days we understand. We think the best place for such gnomes is probably the back garden if only they would stay there.

The prospectus is dated 5 May 2004 and Feltex's financial year ends on 30 June. The most controversial page of the prospectus is probably 86 which claims to be a Consolidated Statement of Prospective Financial Performance. It looks all very concise but the question is who decided on the prospects and how? There are some clues in the accompanying narrative. The June 2004 result is "forecast". The first three quarters of that year had transpired and been measured (the first half had been reported upon but we should have been told the results of the third quarter) and we are told the final quarter had been forcasted from the trend of the previous three. The 2005 year result is "projected". A projection we are told is not a forecast but just what it is is hard to decipher. There are plenty of warnings against interpreting the forecasts and projections in pretty much any way, which we are much inclined to agree with, and that rather brings up the question of what the forecasts and projections doing there in the first place. Investors will be inclined place significance upon them because they are there. The word "realistic" is used in describing the projection however and the promoters need to be held accountable for that.

It is the sales that are the tricky bit and profit is very sensitive to the sales it would seem. The expensive bit it would seem is not the materials that go into a carpet but the productive capacity sitting there waiting to be fully used. Earlier drops in profit have been attributed to sales downturns to a large extent. The 2005 projected sales were set at 3.8% above the 2004 forecast. It is said that only a 1% increase in total carpet demand was allowed for. The other component would seem to be the 3% inflation allowed for. One would expect inflation would apply to most all expenses deducted to get the EBIDTA yet the increase in EBIDTA for 2005 indicates little increase in these expenses. (EBIDTA = earnings before interest, depreciation, tax, and amortisation or some such)

But although a 1% increase in total market demand might be conservative by long term historic standards the requirement for any product does not necessarily move forever upward and should never be assumed

[Snow Leopard]

I am sure they could have issued an announcement along the lines of:

"On the basis that Feltex will continue to trade for the next 12 months...

[Various figures, strong emphasis on the normalised EBITDA, comment about the wonderful future given the briliance of the directors in restructuring and improving efficiency]

...should the company cease trading and be broken up you really do not want to know, it would only upset you".

[Pennywise]

you could almost say this is the core of the current rot...

"Strangely, the board has never explained its decision to increase its term advance from ANZ by $22m - debt that paid for the interim dividend so smugly announced in February last year. From overall debt of $86.7m in 2004, borrowing ballooned to $110m in 2005. The earnings outlook was uncertain - it wouldn't take much to breach bank covenants requiring core Feltex debt to be no more than 3.5 times earnings. Were directors so desperate to pay a dividend, as promised in the prospectus, that they risked putting the company at the mercy of the bank"

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3756291a13,00.html

[Lizard]

Does a company in administration actually provide accounts anyway?

[barnsley bill]

Sharemarket grants Feltex reporting waiver


By NZPA
Wednesday 13th September 2006

The stock exchange has granted troubled carpet maker Feltex a waiver from presenting its year end earnings report by today, as is required by listing rules.

The waiver comes as Feltex's bank ANZ considers a $51 million rescue bid for Feltex, headed by brothers Graeme and Craig Turner, principals of bedding company Sleepyhead.

Feltex today said constructive discussions were continuing with the ANZ bank and the Turners in relation to the Turner proposal and variants of it which would provide substantially the same outcome to shareholders.

It was hoped to make a further announcement today, or tomorrow morning.

NZX said it had agreed to grant Feltex the report waiver on the condition that Feltex release its preliminary results as soon as possible after they were available, following ANZ's decision and in any event on or before Monday.

The Turners will need support from the ANZ while new loan arrangements are put in place for Feltex, which owes at least $135 million but says it is trading profitably.

ANZ could also decide to continue to bankroll the company.

In its statement today, NZX said that under listing rules Feltex must make its preliminary earnings announcement not later than 75 days after the end of the financial year to which that report relates.

In Feltex's case the financial year ended on June 30, making today the final day for reporting the earnings.

Feltex said the accounting basis on which its financial year-end accounts should be prepared and audited could not be determined until the likely future of the company was resolved.

In the absence of the Turner offer or any other recapitalisation transaction proceeding, it was likely the financial year-end accounts would need to be prepared on a "break-up" accounting basis, Feltex said.
With a decision on Feltex's future expected by 11am tomorrow, the waiver sought would enable it to prepare its accounts and make the preliminary earnings announcement when its board had greater certainty about the company's direction.

Work needed to prepare accounts on a going concern basis and on the alternative break up basis was largely finished, but not audited.

Feltex believed it would be in a position to meet the NZX's extended deadline once a decision on its future was made.

oops

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Does a company in administration actually provide accounts anyway?


Accounts of a kind, but not in the normal sense of earnings & EBIT etc, they generally just state liabilities, (in order of preference) and realisable value of assets, to meet those liabilities, then they rabbit on about how hard they are working to realise the assets (to justify their exhorbitant fees)

Disc: In past occupation, have had direct involvement with receivers & liquidations etc

[winner69]

At least Belg will be happy ..... 2 sets of accounts to look at ...... oops, he'll only get to see one set ..... hope its not the break up basis ones

Even the 'going concern' ones can be heavily tagged .... like it is a going concern witht he full support of its bankers etc etc etc

What a complete and fiasco this whole Feltex affair has been over the last few years ..... laughable really.

[Pennywise]

tomorrow morning then it is.

I think this whole non releasing of accounts is more fudge.

Release the accounts on a going concern basis because they should ALREADY be finished, not "largely finished"

and if it falls through have the windup accounts ready to go to shareholders and recievers.

why shouldn't the market see both! are they that bad;)
just more stalling

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Orginally posted by Paper Tiger

Mere idle conversation whilst waiting for the bus to arrive.
It could be a long and tedious wait.

So no bus today then?

Look out for the NZ Herald story "an announcement is expected at 11am" tomorrow as per the last couple of days. One day they may be right.
Accounts delay definitely an attempt to bury the poor job that the current directors/management have done.
I hear that Britney has had another kid, a little boy (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/6/story.cfm?c_id=6&objectid=10401100). What does she do? A singer, well I never.
Look at the state of these shoes, I only bought them a couple of weeks ago...
....
[|)]

[winner69]

Sad when things get this bad ... from the Sleepyhead message board

The waiting and watching is driving all the workers crazy. Morale has gone through the floor, absenteeism is high, and it's very hard to concentrate on doing our jobs. There is plenty of work to be done, in the factories and in the board rooms, to get us back on track. We are still making a profit, though this is not seen as it is gobbled up by our huge debt. But we still have plenty of orders coming in, so that is a good sign. So come on all employees, keep your chin up, do your jobs to the ability we all know you can do, and have faith that the Turner Brothers and the bank will do whats best.
An Employee

Suppose if the Turner things goes ahead the mrale will be sky high .... until the inevitable rationalisation starts

[redfox1]

Originally posted by Pennywise

I hope he sticks around

has been so much entertainment watching him chewing his own foot off lately...did you see him begging and hopelessly repenting on the joke thread...I was pissing myself...he thought he was a gonna.

what would we do if he goes

one useless call and claim after another...he just gets better
I do think FTX has him really ruffled under all the bravado

Next bit of fun will be waiting for the FTX top 20 to come out...I have contacted NZX

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BELGARION 'THE PRINCE OF FOOLS'........And the top 20

He won't be on it !!....You know who he is , I know who he is , Chris Lee knows who he is. 'The Prince of Fools' has no way out !!

Just a shrimp with a big mouth.

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by trackers

Quite familiar with that territory, its in Avonhead near uni - The plant may be a little antiquated, but I'd love to own the land under it


You're right. If FTX actually owns the land that factory will almost certainly be a casualty since the land would be worth millions if rezoned residential.

Knowing CSFB they've probably sold the land before the IPO and FTX may well be leasing the land.

[trackers]

quote:Originally posted by Heavy Metal


quote:Originally posted by trackers

Quite familiar with that territory, its in Avonhead near uni - The plant may be a little antiquated, but I'd love to own the land under it


You're right. If FTX actually owns the land that factory will almost certainly be a casualty since the land would be worth millions if rezoned residential.

Knowing CSFB they've probably sold the land before the IPO and FTX may well be leasing the land.


So maybe not just cheap carpet...cheap land too?! Keeps getting better and better :D

[Snow Leopard]

Still no sign of the bus then?
I spy with my little eye something beginning with R

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Still no sign of the bus then?
I spy with my little eye something beginning with R


R .... for Recovery (turn around doesn't start with a R)

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Still no sign of the bus then?
I spy with my little eye something beginning with R


:D:D

recap/rights issue or receivership

covering bets there PT

The longer it takes I think bodes well for the Turners as they must be serious about nailing down the final details acceptable to ANZ.

[winner69]

Penny wise .... agree .... The longer it takes I think bodes well for the Turners and Belg as they must be serious about nailing down the final details acceptable to ANZ and belg goes to the ANZ looking for a bit more cash to take up his rights

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Pennywise

recap/rights issue or receivership

covering bets there PT

The longer it takes I think bodes well for the Turners as they must be serious about nailing down the final details acceptable to ANZ.

You are not as stupid as belgarion seems, are you?
Nothing like being Delphic and claiming to win either way.

However, like Schrödinger's Cat until that box is actually opened we do not whether Feltex lives or dies.

[Pennywise]

If you think stumping up another $250k W69 bodes well for him...

I would have included Belg:D

The escalation of debt in 1 year would wipe out any Turners equity within another year...and I don't see market conditions getting any better.

they will struggle big time.

[trackers]

Feltex future known today
14 September 2006
By GARETH VAUGHAN

Feltex Carpets' fate should finally be known today.


The debt-laden company said yesterday morning a decision on its future would be made within 24 hours.

It said "constructive" talks were continuing with its bank, ANZ, and Sleepyhead bedding group owners Craig and Graeme Turner, who have lodged a $51 million recapitalisation offer.

The talks were related to the Turners' proposal and "variants of it" that would provide the same outcome to shareholders, Feltex said. It owes $135 million to ANZ, which switched off its credit lines last Thursday.

Feltex shares rose 0.3 cents to 10.8c yesterday.

It received a second stock exchange waiver yesterday enabling it to delay its annual results, initially due by August 29, till Monday.

Feltex said it was preparing accounts on the normal "going concern" basis, which would be filed under the Turners' offer, and on a "break-up" accounting basis in case ANZ rejected the Turners' offer, forcing a receivership and fire sale. Neither set of accounts had yet been audited by Ernst & Young.

AdvertisementAdvertisementMeanwhile, Shareholders Association chairman Bruce Sheppard has written to Feltex seeking more disclosure on the Turners' offer. Mr Sheppard labelled Feltex's disclosure incomplete, saying it was in breach of NZX's continuous disclosure rules.

Mr Sheppard asked for clarification on the terms of the Turners' proposed convertible notes, including the interest rate and repayment terms. He also said Feltex's announcement of the Turners' offer last Friday made no mention of how much the Turners and their investors would pay for a potential 60.6 per cent Feltex stake.

"This equates to a new issue of 229.8 million new shares," he writes.

The Turners' offer would see Feltex issue $40 million convertible notes to the Turners and a group of investors. The Turners and their investors would also underwrite a 10c per share, $11 million, renounceable rights issue. They would be issued 115 million warrants over unissued securities with an exercise price of 15c each and a four-year life span.

Feltex shareholders could be left with just 29 per cent of the company.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3796277a13,00.html

Well that time has elapsed

[The BOWMAN]

FTX's debt level is increasing as we speak. Is FTX going to announce something today? They said they would.

How many people bet that FTX isn't going to announce anything today? I do.

[Pennywise]

from the message boards earlier

"ive worked for feltex for 19 years and am appauld at how it has been run.Speaking for myself, and probably most of the workers there, I am sick of getting no information from the "so called" C.E.Os whose mission statement to us were: PASSION,EXCELLENCE,HONESTY AND INTEGRITY,WEALTH CREATION AND EMPOWERMENT.I think its time for a new mission statement!
P. Kendall"



so nothings changed here

[metro]

Soooo..today wasn't the day after all....
The fate of 800 workers rests with ANZ National Bank :(

[Toddy]

Bad news always comes on a Friday.

[warthog]

People will have the weekend to prepare for the fallout.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Toddy

Bad news always comes on a Friday.


usually at 5.01pm

[Pennywise]

continuous disclosure


[:o)]FTX MANAGEMENT are CLOWNS[:o)]

[The BOWMAN]

The price is dropping quite a bit this morning. Somebody might have known something?

Honestly, I don't know why anybody would go buy FTX at this market price. It doesn't matter whether ANZ accepts or not, the share is going to worth very little. If ANZ doesn't accept, the share is worth close to 0 cents. If ANZ accepts, the share is worth close to 2-3 cents in my roughest estimation.

[kura]

Bowman, I have been amazed that the price has held up so well, even back before the Turners offer was on the table.

[Pennywise]

yes, quite a fall, now 18%.

surely Belg will come to the rescue and "soak up" all the idiots bailing?

leakage?

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Pennywise

continuous disclosure


[:o)]FTX MANAGEMENT are CLOWNS[:o)]



Maybe nothing to disclose .... maybe nothings happened ... business as usual

[Pennywise]

FTX
15/09/2006
GENERAL

REL: 1730 HRS Feltex Carpets Limited

GENERAL: FTX: UPDATE

Discussions continue to be held with the ANZ Bank in regard to a transaction.
An outcome may not be possible until sometime next week.

Ends.

For further information, please contact:
John Walsh - 0275 660 776
End CA:00136986 For:FTX Type:GENERAL Time:2006-09-15:17:30:34

[winner69]

The longer the 'discussions' go on one would think the less value the Turners are going to get out of this .... seems the gap between what the ANZ and Turners want was quite big ..... but not unsurmountable ... so discussions continue

[Lizard]

Will they get another waiver to postpone releasing the results?

Perhaps we should all e-mail the NZX and ask that results be released on a going concern basis (with appropriate qualifier). Then the investors (who potentially stand to lose the most) might have at least some of the information that must be available to the other participants in these negotiations. And might have a better basis to judge for themselves the odds as to whether Feltex is likely to be a going concern.

[BRICKS]

THE word is DOOM,, Kiss your rear DOOM,, The only talk going on is ANZ DOOM,, NO DOOM for any one ELSE,, So DOOM.. [8D]

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

The 'negotiations' will be like this ...

ANZ: I want $140 mill repaid.

Turners: FTX liquidated is worth about $40 mill

(Silence ensues as both parties contemplate $100 million)

ANZ: Okay - we'll accept $130 million repaid and $10 million in debentures secured over the choice assets.

Turners: We'll give you $40 mill and promise not to publicise how foolish you were.

Reminds me of the old adage: If you owe the bank $10,000 and can't pay, then you have a problem. If you owe the bank $100,000,000 and can't pay then the bank has a problem.


THEY have a problem not that much money in NZ for DOOM.. [8D]

[Pennywise]

"Rest assured that Belgie is a canny scotsman who has worked with some of the best investment bankers in scotland. "Never buy squat unless there's assets behind it"


reminder: put postit note in middle of computer screen...END

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion
Reminds me of the old adage: If you owe the bank $10,000 and can't pay, then you have a problem. If you owe the bank $100,000,000 and can't pay then the bank has a problem.


[cont.]...and if the bank has a problem, then shareholders have an even bigger problem as the bank takes the LOT.



We need a debt clock waiting for this one;)

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Pennywise


quote:Originally posted by belgarion
Reminds me of the old adage: If you owe the bank $10,000 and can't pay, then you have a problem. If you owe the bank $100,000,000 and can't pay then the bank has a problem.


[cont.]...and if the bank has a problem, then shareholders have an even bigger problem as the bank takes the LOT.



We need a debt clock waiting for this one;)


Pennywise your name does not come out in your writings.. [8D]

[Pennywise]

tik $145,928,556


;)

[kura]

If I was a supplier of Feltex, I would be rather cautious about giving them any more credit, I wonder if ANZ still have their money tap firmly shut off ?

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Pennywise

tik $145,928,556


;)


Just gone up a bit more mate .... the guys at Lower Hutt palnt seem to be doing overtime .... and want to be paid net week

But then the order book is so so so full .... and we trading profitably ..... so why should debt be going up .... maybe we need a count down clock

[winner69]

hey pennywise ... we shouldn't be too mean about feltex .... we should take into account that debt levels are well below historical averages .... like these figures

2000 $184M
2001 $173M
2002 $143M
2003 $150M
2004 $86M
2005 $110M

So today is not too bad

[Pennywise]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

hey pennywise ... we shouldn't be too mean about feltex .... we should take into account that debt levels are well below historical averages .... like these figures

2000 $184M
2001 $173M
2002 $143M
2003 $150M
2004 $86M
2005 $110M

So today is not too bad



or we could look at it like this since IPO

2004 $86M
2005 $110M (add $22m for dividend payout)
2006 $150M+ (est.year end))
2007 $0;)

even if they pay no div

debt is ballooning at average $20M PA

I would be more likely to invest if GPG or G Hart were doing the deal.
The Turners...nah.

[warthog]

There must be some kind of way out of here
Said the joker to the thief
Theres too much confusion
I cant get no relief
Businessman they drink my wine
Plow men dig my earth
None will level on the line
Nobody of it is worth
Hey hey

No reason to get excited
The thief he kindly spoke
There are many here among us
Who feel that life is but a joke but uh
But you and I weve been through that
And this is not our fate
So let us not talk falsely now
The hours getting late
Hey

Hey

All along the watchtower
Princes kept the view
While all the women came and went
Bare-foot servants to, but huh
Outside in the cold distance
A wild cat did growl
Two riders were approachin
And the wind began to howl
Hey
Oh
All along the watchtower
Hear you sing around the watch
Gotta beware gotta beware I will
Yeah
Ooh baby
All along the watchtower

(All Along the Watchtower, J. Hendrix)

[minimoke]

Year end results due out today. Will they do it before the end of day trading? The high rolling day traders might now have some financial detail to go on.

[Pennywise]

surely they don't stop for the weekend on a deal like this...

poor holders over the weekend, the bars in Takapuna probably did well:D

[Lizard]

Well it does not appear as if the NZX is going to give them another waiver. I guess if they don't provide accounts tonight, then the NZX can suspend them from trading?

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Well it does not appear as if the NZX is going to give them another waiver. I guess if they don't provide accounts tonight, then the NZX can suspend them from trading?

leaving it a bit late aren't they?
Must be something coming or we would have seen an NZX announcement by now wouldn't we?

[minimoke]

Well there’s a surprise. Despite being given till today to produce the Accounts FTX haven’t. Their bogus reasons last week swayed a gullible NZX and punters today still driving the price up even when it looks like there will be a trading halt tomorrow. Is this company capable of doing anything right?

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke

Well there’s a surprise. Despite being given till today to produce the Accounts FTX haven’t. Their bogus reasons last week swayed a gullible NZX and punters today still driving the price up even when it looks like there will be a trading halt tomorrow. Is this company capable of doing anything right?

despite other posters musings that the delays must be good news I disagree. With the bank closing their purse and the turners staying silent I see this ending in receivership. I was wrong about TEL so hey what do I know. Hope I am wrong for most holders, suppliers and staff do not deserve this but we have seen nothing positive for months.

[barnsley bill]

Well there you go.... Barnsley bill the investment unpundit. Announcement for results (unaudited) posted when i hit the launch button on the last post.:D

[trackers]

Accounts announcement pending

[trackers]

20 seconds in it BB, close! [8D]

[minimoke]

oops - I take it back. 5.05pm is a good time to announce a $57.6m loss compared with a $12m profit last year.

[barnsley bill]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke

oops - I take it back. 5.05pm is a good time to announce a $57.6m loss compared with a $12m profit last year.

how much!! curtains.......

[minimoke]

Give them their dues, the directors have not only been able to wipe out millions in shareholder value, they have now written of $32.8m worth of goodwill so it now sits at zero.

Also sales down, gross margin down, margin down, EBITDA down, restructuring costs up. Oh – here’s some bright news for the recipients - legal and consulting costs up – great to see someone has done well this year.

[trackers]

Yeah well like you mention, 32mil goodwill write off, and 13mil restructuring = 47/57mil

Not quite as atrocious, but still pretty horrible. Turning a 60mil gross margin into a 50mil loss is a pretty mean feat

[Lizard]

The resurgence of the NZ dollar may not be helping negotiations.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by Steve

I'm picking that the announcement will be made on the last possible day this time round...



Full year result will be so boring .... they have already told us what the 'normalised' result is .... add in the 'abnormals' they have already told us about ..... and sniper has already told you the result .... but ptobably a few more writedowns but they will try to avoid those at all costs ... so boring boring

But belg will be excited because they will be AUDITED

Tim and Peter will give us an update on trading since June 30th .... might be positive but who would believe that .... but then they wouldn't want it to be too positive would they


Look forward to another laugh anyway


Boring boring ..... belg disappointed .... and peters update still to come


Boring .... and worth a laugh

[BRICKS]

THERE playing there song again..: DOOM, DOOM, DOOM and people still BUY.. [8D]

[kura]

I'm confused here, in the lack of balance sheet type info ? I thought it was customary to provide this info at the same time as profit numbers ?

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by kura

I'm confused here, in the lack of balance sheet type info ? I thought it was customary to provide this info at the same time as profit numbers ?


That's all the NZX thinks the public needs to know .... prob full set of forms with the NZX

[winner69]

No mention of a dividend

[Snow Leopard]

The announcement today in no way varies from the announcement they could have made last week and you will note that they waited until after the market closed.

I see nothing in this to provide any particular hope for the future. The known state of the company, the Turners proposal and these figures do not, to me, paint a coinfident picture of the next few years.

Could be wrong and hope that they get a fair wind.

[Snow Leopard]

PS Also I have a suspicion that the taxation is the right scalar but the wrong vector.

Trans: I have a lot to learn about the realities of IFRS but should the tax debit not be a credit?

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by kura

I'm confused here, in the lack of balance sheet type info ? I thought it was customary to provide this info at the same time as profit numbers ?


That's all the NZX thinks the public needs to know .... prob full set of forms with the NZX


The public appear to be on a "need to know" basis ;)

[The BOWMAN]

Gosh, if I was one of the Turners when I reading this FY report, I would have to ask myself "Am I throwing my money into the drain? Am I asking the FTX share holders to throw away more money?"

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

THERE playing there song again..: DOOM, DOOM, DOOM and ..

Anyone remember watching Dads Army on Tele? they had that dour old scotman on it ? his favourite saying was "were all doomed, doomed" and was spoken with that scots accent.

[kura]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

PS Also I have a suspicion that the taxation is the right scalar but the wrong vector.

Trans: I have a lot to learn about the realities of IFRS but should the tax debit not be a credit?

No, I'd believe that it is an expense, and would take the announcement at face value, here is my thinking
- Impairment of plant & goodwill (non deductable)
- Restructuring costs, probably just a provision at 30/06, and not deductable untill paid/incurred.
This is just a guess mind you, for all I know they could have been some historical claim by IRD relating back to prior years, with the prior owners I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't engage in some questionable tax tactics.
Like yourself I'm ignorant of IFRS rules, but as I recalled the old rules there had to be "reasonable certainty" to carry forward any tax loss benefits, and we sure ain't got certainty ! To put it another way, I would be really surprised if IFRS made it compulsory to carry an asset in the balance sheet, if it was of questionable value.

Ho hum, where is that bus ?

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by kura

I'm confused here, in the lack of balance sheet type info ? I thought it was customary to provide this info at the same time as profit numbers ?


That's all the NZX thinks the public needs to know .... prob full set of forms with the NZX



The public appear to be on a "need to know" basis ;)


The ASX put all disclosed documents (full accounts, commentarys, presentations etc) on a database for all to look at.

When approached as to why they dont do the same the NZX said they thought that normal NZers didn''t really want to access this sort of info so doing so woulding be adding any value to their services.

Documents are there in the NZX coffers ... you have to ask or be on some secret mailing list or something. My point was why should I ... i just want to download public documents when i want them.

I think it is either they don't have the IT resource to have a databaae similar to the ASX or they dont just care about retail investors.

No wonder many NZers have left the NZX and gone to greener pastures

[winner69]

Pay day today according to the paper .... and the union thinks they might not get paid ... suggested a walkout if they didn't .... lets see

[minimoke]

OK, time for a positive spin.

EBITDA as at Dec 05 $7.1m, FY = $20m so a significant improvement in second half of year. Sales slippage seems to be slowing and margin has slightly increased.

Restructuring cost at December were $15m – somehow they have recovered some $1.8m by year end. Net loss at December was $11m (with no financing costs shown), FY loss was $40.4m but if we take out the $33m goodwill right off the loss would be $7m so a slight improvement. Can’t figure out the tax cost – who knows?

Take out the One Off costs, pay the interest costs, take it that the one off restructuring costs are finished (but hadn’t that been done in FY2005?) and the company is pretty much profitable.

[trackers]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke

OK, time for a positive spin.

EBITDA as at Dec 05 $7.1m, FY = $20m so a significant improvement in second half of year. Sales slippage seems to be slowing and margin has slightly increased.

Restructuring cost at December were $15m – somehow they have recovered some $1.8m by year end. Net loss at December was $11m (with no financing costs shown), FY loss was $40.4m but if we take out the $33m goodwill right off the loss would be $7m so a slight improvement. Can’t figure out the tax cost – who knows?

Take out the One Off costs, pay the interest costs, take it that the one off restructuring costs are finished (but hadn’t that been done in FY2005?) and the company is pretty much profitable.



From memory the restructuring was split, most for last year the rest for this year - its finished anyhow.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by trackers
[
From memory the restructuring was split, most for last year the rest for this year - its finished anyhow.


Talking of restructures .... wonder where all these things went -

........the projected 'cost savings of a reconfigured woven carpet operation will be approximately $3 million per annum' that they said would eventuate with the restructuring of the Chch operations reported in 2004

..... ongoing cost savings associated with increased yarn production in New Zealand for use in Australian manufacturing (reported 2004)

...... positive impact on future earnings, with depreciation and financing costs being more than offset by the property rental savings when they bought Foxton


Put all these 'savings' into the 06 result and the 'real' result is even more horrific

Feltex is beyond restructuring .... its been restructured so many times over the past decade with so many zillions of savings coming that all is honkey dory now .... but it isn't is it?

So what is point of further restructures .... more tinkering .... it needs some radical surgery .....

The answer I posted some weeks ago but not even Turners would want to do that

[kura]

quote:[i]Originally posted by winner69

When approached as to why they dont do the same the NZX said they thought that normal NZers didn''t really want to access this sort of info so doing so woulding be adding any value to their services.

Documents are there in the NZX coffers ... you have to ask or be on some secret mailing list or something. My point was why should I ... i just want to download public documents when i want them.

I think it is either they don't have the IT resource to have a databaae similar to the ASX or they dont just care about retail investors.

No wonder many NZers have left the NZX and gone to greener pastures



Yep, 90% of my trading is on ASX, sure it can be frustrating to wade through some great multi page pdf to find the details you are looking for, but at least it beats the "mushroom attitude" of the NZX !

[minimoke]

Watch for the dead cat bounce on the back of this news:

Rival carpet-maker Godfrey Hirst has re-emerged as a suitor for Feltex Carpets.
BusinessDay understands talks between Hirst, which like Feltex is Melbourne-based, and the ANZ, Feltex's bank, took place late last week and again this week.
Hirst pulled a $141.8 million takeover offer on September 6, saying it did not believe its bid – requiring 75 per cent shareholder support – had a reasonable chance of success.
The company, controlled by the expatriate New Zealand McKendrick family, has never formally withdrawn its offer, however. Hirst merely said it did not want to get embroiled in a bidding war with Sleepyhead owners Craig and Graeme Turner for Feltex's assets. It remained a willing buyer in an environment conducive to a successful sale.
Hirst has been cleared by both the Commerce Commission and Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to buy Feltex.
But few shareholders, some of whom bought Feltex shares for $1.70 in the June 2004 float, warmed to Hirst's proposal, which offered them less than 12 cents a share.
Feltex shares closed down 2.2c at 7.8c yesterday, a new closing low.
The ANZ, which turned off Feltex's credit lines on September 7 and is owed at least $135 million, is now in the driver's seat.
Feltex spokesman John Walsh said Feltex was not in talks with Hirst, and Hirst and ANZ declined to comment.

[J R Ewing]

The best hope for shareholders must still be the Turners offer. The GH offer was for a MAXIMUM of 12c per share, subject to due diligence. If the Turners offer is off the table then surely shareholders will have Hobson's choice:

1. Take a pittance from GH.
2. Let GH buy the assets of the recievers.

[warthog]

What's the bet that GH will be looking at a figure somewhat less than outstanding debt? Things have become worse since their current bid was outlined. For their part, GH will simply be looking to be a one-stop liquidation shop, and in the hog's opinion, quite wisely. After all, GH did offer $0.60 per share not that long ago which was rebuffed, so they can hardly be accused of not having made a serious value offer in this short, sad saga.

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion
It would be greatly appreciated ;) 30% daily swings work for me [:p]

Looking at the volumes going through and $30 brokerage going each way, I’m not sure how that works!

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

True mini ... volumes are crap on most days ...

100,000 shares @ 1 cent a share = $1000 ;
less $60 bokerage ;
$940 less tax = $560 (approx)

Not much ... but it gives me something to do - and there may be no tax to pay if it all goes bellie up [xx(]

Unfortunately your friend Pennywise has been banned for some reason otherwise he would point out the error of your ways, but in his absence I will go for it.

$940 less tax = $629.80 (taxed at 33%)
If you were paying tax at 39% then it would be closer at $573.40, but we all know how to minimize paying top whack on trading profits.

Edit: Tax avoidance is illegal. tax minimization is your duty,

[trackers]

quote:Tax avoidance is illegal. tax minimization is your duty,


Brilliant

[The BOWMAN]

I don't know how would this news help the share price. I can only imagine Hirst is persuading ANZ to call in the receivership and they will show up and buy. Hirst knows there is no point giving an offer and waiting for the share holder approval. It is not getting approved as there is no money left for the share holders.

[J R Ewing]

Yes, I think the traders will have been selling today. I reckon this is as good as it gets unless the Turners bid goes ahead AND the company recovers in the longer term.

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by minimoke

Watch for the dead cat bounce on the back of this news:


There you go - up 14%. No where near 30% and didn't see any 100,000 trades but then there aren't too may traders with level of interest.