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winner69
16-09-2004, 07:50 PM
Todays low has to be as far it goes

FTX guidance for F05 is eps of 16 cents so current pe <10

Promised div is 13 cents - even without imputation credits yield >8%

So Ramp #3 (excuse me minder) under way - don't miss the ride

Snow Leopard
17-09-2004, 07:19 AM
To repeat what I said on the Ramp 2 thread.

Given that no one knows why it is sliding I would not bet that it will hit bottom here. However the lower it goes the better the buy.

The prospectus claims that there will be some imputation credits to go with next years divvy making it worth nearly 17cps gross. So the yield is about 10.4% at a SP of 157*.

corrected 10.7% to 10.4%.

nest
18-09-2004, 02:41 PM
i have some and am going to keep them. i like dividends, its all money in the bank. what goes up must come down and what goes down will come up, just a waiting game?!?!?!

Snow Leopard
18-09-2004, 03:06 PM
I am cautiously optimistic that Winner69 has successfully predicted the bottom of this drop.

Friday saw good support on a reasonably high turn-over (but by definition also more selling), and it closed even on the day.
Let us see what Monday brings, see if the support at 157 remains, it starts to climb or if it resumes it gently decent.
Assuming that the forecast for next year holds true then there is three lots of divies in the next 13 months worth 23cps GROSS.
My question mark at this stage is what the earning (forecast) will be for the 2005-6 year, the commercial sector looks good but residential must have settled back by then. I am picking a little growth at the moment and on the current P/E there is some room for the SP to move up. Possibly interest rates will be starting to come down again to make the yield more interesting and buoy up the price.

I have previously posted that the was little risk to this and surely there is less now.
Anyway unless I miss the boat on a rebound I think I will be buying in for a while.
Any other opinions?

boring
18-09-2004, 07:50 PM
FTX looks like a bargain, in a market where it's harder to find bargains. Maybe this share is just being overlooked, I can't seen why it's being sold down to these levels. Who's doing the selling and why ?

If FTX do achieve their projections, and at the moment there is no evidence why they won't, then on valuation it's certainly a bargain compared to CAV. CAV has a consistent history of performance, but I see no reason why FTX deserves such a discounted valuation.

I agree that this share should have an accumulate rating for prospective medium-term holders ... but then again I'm known to get these things wrong from time to time.

Nevl
20-09-2004, 11:16 AM
Hi

Well you guys have me convinced so I put a small amount into FTX. In time to get the first divi. It is all all margin money and the divis alone in the next 13 months will almost be double what it costs in interest. So money for jam as they say and lets hope any surprises are positive!!

thanks
Nevan

Cooper
20-09-2004, 11:40 AM
Nevl... what is the rate on your margin account? Sounds like it's half what mine is!!

Nevl
20-09-2004, 11:44 AM
Actually just looking at my latest interest from ASB it is 9.15% so not quite as chap still. Should get about 18cps from FTX which is just on 11% return. Anyway am useing ASB.

Snow Leopard
20-09-2004, 03:18 PM
I have convinced myself and acquired a few thousand at $1.58 a go.

winner69
20-09-2004, 07:07 PM
Good on you guys ... you did get the price up to 160 during the day

How about a bit more buying and get it back to 170 (at least 165) before the dividend

Yield still the same and as paper tiger has pointed out 23 cents GROSS DIVIDEND OVER THE NEXT 13 MONTHS

winner69
22-09-2004, 07:04 PM
Come on guys - this stock is just not moving

Div 6 cents if you get in by October 1

Papertiger is on board ... need a few more

Snow Leopard
22-09-2004, 07:34 PM
W69

Flattered that you hold me up as a shining example of good investment sense [:I].

moimoi
22-09-2004, 10:38 PM
maybe $1.50 on Oct 2nd.

discl: I know nothing[:o)]

winner69
23-09-2004, 06:17 AM
Come on moimoi ... surely not $1.50 ????

Paper Tiger said earlier that there is little risk in FTX at current levels

Snow Leopard
23-09-2004, 06:36 AM
Moimoi: Oct 2nd is a saturday and the market is shut :D

In theory the share price should be 6cps less on 04-Oct than it was 01-Oct. So assuming no gain till then than is 152 and it will then start to climb back.
Remember we are playing this game out over the next year not the next month.

Snow Leopard
29-09-2004, 09:47 AM
just hit 163 after opening at 160 :D
Lets just hope it keeps going this way [^]

limegreen
30-09-2004, 09:05 AM
quote:just hit 163

I was hoping the bus was going to stop for long enough for me to jump on (paid today), but think a day or two too late for my liking.

Snow Leopard
30-09-2004, 09:34 AM
quote:Originally posted by limegreen


quote:just hit 163

I was hoping the bus was going to stop for long enough for me to jump on (paid today), but think a day or two too late for my liking.


Tomorrow, Friday 1st Oct is the record date for the 6cps (no imputation credits) dividend. Maybe you will be able to pick some up for a song after that.

Personally I think if you can get them at 162/163 they are still a good price, but it is your money.

limegreen
30-09-2004, 09:41 AM
Yeah. See that's what I can't work out. Buy today with Divi, or tomorrow ex.

Actually, general question, as I don't entirely understand the finer points of dividends. Will I end up with tax to pay on an unimputed dividend?

Snow Leopard
30-09-2004, 09:55 AM
quote:Originally posted by limegreen

Yeah. See that's what I can't work out. Buy today with Divi, or tomorrow ex.

Actually, general question, as I don't entirely understand the finer points of dividends. Will I end up with tax to pay on an unimputed dividend?


Yes.

Dividends come with between no and full imputation credits depending upon the companies tax history and ownership.

The full income 'worth' of a dividend is the stated dividend as paid to you plus the imputation credit which is the tax the company has already paid on it.

In this case there is no imputation credit is the gross amount is 6cps
and you should pay tax on it at your rate 19.5%/33%/39%.

Next year Feltex expects to have about 52% imputation credits on its dividends (having paid some tax in the meantime) so if we assume they deliver on the 13cps over the year there will be about 4cps imputation credit so the gross is 17cps. You will need to pay the difference between the 4cps paid and the tax amount at your rate of tax.
Further down the field when we are on full imputation credits then the company has paid tax the tax at 33% (the company tax rate) on the dividends.
If you pay tax at 19.5% you can claim some of that back from the IRD [:p].
If you pay at 33% then all is square. [|)]
If you pay at 39% then you still owe a bit :(

That is a quick overview. Don't talk the figures as gospel. Do your own research. E&OE. etc :D

limegreen
30-09-2004, 10:01 AM
That was more or less what I was figuring. My understanding is that they can't give out imputation credits, because the tax on this profit was paid pre-lisiting or something to that effect. I'm none too phased. I'm in for the ride.

Lawso
30-09-2004, 10:08 AM
Good luck with FTX in the next faze, limegreen ;)

limegreen
30-09-2004, 10:23 AM
That's such a good mistake I think I'll have to leave it there for posterity.

Snow Leopard
30-09-2004, 02:53 PM
Just touched 164 :), nearly 2 million traded today [:p]

What will tomorrow bring [?]
What will happen once it goes ex div [?]

limegreen
30-09-2004, 02:55 PM
1.5 million of that was in two 750k bundles, so somebody is obviously banking on it being better to be in before the dividend than not.

rmbbrave
01-10-2004, 12:43 AM
Today it should trade at 1.57 (1.63 minus a 6 cent dividend) Anything more is icing on the cake.

Snow Leopard
01-10-2004, 07:53 AM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

Today it should trade at 1.57 (1.63 minus a 6 cent dividend) Anything more is icing on the cake.


[The end of ] today is the record date and thus it is still cum dividend.
Monday is ex dividend and the shares find their new level then.

limegreen
01-10-2004, 08:49 AM
quote: [The end of ] today is the record date
The market depth certainly reflects that. Is there any easy way to find out this information for the NZX. The ASX website appears to have much better detail about the companies listed there.

rmbbrave
03-10-2004, 10:40 PM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

Today it should trade at 1.57 (1.63 minus a 6 cent dividend) Anything more is icing on the cake.


I was a few days early but I believe now is the right time for this message.

winner69
06-10-2004, 07:01 PM
Took the dividend and the 3 cents SP increase

Not bad for 3 weeks work but was hoping for a bit more

I feel that FTX well hang around this mark for a while now .... nothing exciting on the horizon to give it a push

Lawso
28-10-2004, 02:53 PM
FTX continues to languish - up only 1c to 155 in today's strong market (but CAV is down 3c!) I note some insiders' confidence - CFO Des Tolan has just bought 8450 @ 152 and a few days earlier director David Hunter bought 6000 @ 157.

There was an upbeat interview by Jenny Ruth with MD Sam Magill on http://www.sharechat.co.nz/features/interviews/article.php/ a couple of days ago but still the market is showing no confidence in FTX, or CAV for that matter. Why?

Discl. Hold both FTX & CAV. Dividends from both arrived simultaneously. Enough dosh to recarpet the lounge. But which brand to buy? Decisions decisions.

limegreen
28-10-2004, 03:02 PM
I think it will languish for a bit. Not too long until first quarter report now. They are hinting that dividends might become more frequent, which might give the sp some more impetus.

nelehdine
28-10-2004, 09:52 PM
Still watching CAV, Lawso, I obviously am quite pleased they haven't gone up since my sale a few months ago. I WILL get back in at some point but I feel the shares will track sideways for a while longer ... maybe early next year could be a target re-entry point. I have a mental "buy stop" at $5.05 which I feel won't be triggered anytime soon. Really like Hellaby at the moment, might buy a few more at 588 tomorrow if possible !! ( BBQ Factory is going to be a real star for them over the next few years IMHO , I think they got a real bargain when they bgt it a few weeks back !! )

Disc: Hold HBY ... sold CAV at $5 about 4 months ago.

boring
28-10-2004, 10:01 PM
Alan Bollard's declaration that the i-rate tightening phase was over should ease some concerns on the impact of high the NZD-AUD f/x on the earnings of this company.

Director purchases is certainly a bullish sign, but FTX needs to continue to deliver the good news. FTX is probably being ignored at the moment because market probably continues to focus on energy sector consolidation. I still rate this share an accumulate on weakness, but who really knows if we have seen the bottom yet.

Lawso
30-10-2004, 01:25 PM
A positive view on FTX by IRG (Investment Research Group Ltd) in today's NZ Herald:

LOW FELTEX SHARE PRICE COMPENSATES FOR RISK.

Feltex is one of the few recent IPOs whose shares are trading below their issue price and it just keeps falling. That issue price was itself set at the bottom of the expected range following a book-building process. Subsequently Feltex has produced an excellent result under favourable market conditions. It has a huge slice of the Australasian carpet market and clearly there is some risk in that. The strong local currency and expected downturn in the building industry here and in Australia weighs heavily on investors. But the share price is now so low and projected dividend yield so high (about 8%) the risks are more than compensated for. The company is well managed, financially sound and on target to meet its IPO forecast in the present year.
END

Comment: FTX must be good buying at its current level, IMHO, and will benefit from any weakening in the Kiwi v. $A.

Snow Leopard
30-10-2004, 04:00 PM
quote:

Comment: FTX must be good buying at its current level, IMHO, and will benefit from any weakening in the Kiwi v. $A.



Ahem to that, Lawso.

I really believe that the market is under-rating this company, a view that has strengthened with time. Hopefully one day the rest of the world will come round to this view :).
Sam & Co, I believe are really on the ball and are willing to make the necessary decisions and investments to enhance the turnover and profit of Feltex.

PLK
05-11-2004, 07:02 PM
i think it is a good company
already bought 28000 @1.57
hope it will be showing its true value on its share price soon
when you guys think it will be ??

limegreen
08-11-2004, 07:29 AM
FTX has is slowly being accumulated at these lower prices (rather than sold off looking at OBV). I think a combination of things will help. Once the dividends appear stable and have imputation credits I think the yield will make the stock look more attractive. A falling dollar relative to the AUD will help with sales off-shore as well. That's my two cents.

Lawso
08-11-2004, 09:58 AM
Forsyth Barr put out a positive report on FTX last week. Summarised as follows: "We consider FTX has a number of attractive investment fundamentals including strong brands and an attractive FY05 yield of 10.3%. FTX is trading at a 25.0% discount to our $2.10 valuation and we reiterate our BUY recommendation."

PS. Note the coy is predicting only 50% imputation on the '05 dividend, forecast to be 13.1cps cf. a lousy 6cps for '04.

PPS. This is my third attempt in the last couple of weeks to ramp up the FTX price and it still stagnates.:(


quote:
Ahem to that, Lawso.

You should be taking something for that cough, PT ;)

Snow Leopard
08-11-2004, 10:12 AM
quote:
You should be taking something for that cough, PT


Amen to that, Lawso [:I]

limegreen
08-11-2004, 11:15 AM
Forsyth Barr is not the only broker pushing FTX, and valuing it around $2. However, the cynic in me wonders whether having promoted the issue to their clients, the brokers are engaging in a bit of ramping of their own.

Of course, as a holder, I know that to be complete bollocks, and feel that $2 severely undervalues the company.[8D][8D][8D][8D][8D][8D]

Dubdee
08-11-2004, 03:45 PM
Note that John Kokic, FTX COO bought a line of shares today.

Dazza
18-11-2004, 09:13 PM
a newbies hypothesis here:
i brought ftx since teh IPO at the 1.70 mark just 1k shares *big mistake since 1.62 idiot ppl who work at ftx would rather have the cash than the shares*

hense prob why the disappointing IPO... yet afta awhile it went back over 1.70 for a short time, be4 plummeting to its level now the 1.55-7 mark.

so since its IPO to the date now its been down 10%...

the stock like their CEO's say is good balance sheet is good etc etc, howeva the market and the traders have written this stock off.

the main reason i see it is, with the current market as it is, the money we invest in this company, can easily be invested into other companiese where actual growth profits can be made!

eg - FBU, FPH, NOG just to name a few.

i guess the plain and simple reason is that money can be made elsewhere instead of bogged down in this company..

im contemplating of selling all my shares , to take the ~10% loss, cut my losses, and invest in NOG or OC's...

i did that with my WHS shares and its done superb... so why not with FTX... or if NOG is a risk.. maybe even try TPW for the short term..

your thoughts ppl?

PLK
20-11-2004, 03:59 AM
i bought pacific brand in its IPO
i was so sure it is a good company
but price drop under IPO price, i had the same feeling you have right now
but as long as it is a profitable and growing company, soon or later market will set it to the right price

well i bought it at 1.57. so i guess its easier for me to say that ^_^""

limegreen
22-11-2004, 09:37 AM
Assuming they maintain their dividends as planned, I think an established yield should give them a good upside, especially if interest rates start to decline next year.

Snow Leopard
22-11-2004, 10:10 AM
We keep pointing out what a bargin this share is at this price, yet the price stays down.
I know of nothing in the future that is really detrimental to this company. They are not as dependent upon the new house market as most, refurishing and commercial is looking good here and in OZ, which is their major market. The NZ$/AU$ cross will go in their favour in the mid term surely.

Divvy over 10% gross (yes, that is without full imputation credits) P/E less than 10.

Come on buy while they are on special :)
Disc: Hold for the long term, may have more by the end of the day.

limegreen
22-11-2004, 10:22 AM
I wonder if perhaps the more yield conscious investors will wait until the see the yield as consistent and strong. I'd guess investors most interested in divis are probably more conservative, so will wait a bit before buying in, leaving the good buying to us.

Disc: FTX, rose-tinted glasses

Snow Leopard
24-11-2004, 05:06 PM
Some astute investor [not me] put in an order at the end of day to lift FTX to 158 at close, a 3c/1.94% gain on the day
Hopefully this is because everyone is beginning to realise what a wonderful bargin it is and we are seeing the start of an uptrend.

If I am right, which would be a first on this one, you can say what a prophet I am. :)
If I am wrong, please don't bring the subject up again. :(

Disc: Bought at 158, two pages ago and have the divvy as prophet [8D]

limegreen
25-11-2004, 08:45 AM
I can't tell if it was your "astute investor", but yesterday was also the heaviest buying in 2 months, with around a million shares changing hands, so it might really be the beginning of a change.

Disc: Also bought just pre-dividend; wanted to buy at 1.58, but had to wait for pay : (

Dubdee
26-11-2004, 01:07 PM
I think buying interest is FX related. Note OZ cross rate has declined at same timing buying has started. The market believes that FTX is sensitive to movements on the OZ cross rate. This only effects their wool carpet sales in OZ, so its not as big a deal as many think, but positive all the same

Snow Leopard
26-11-2004, 01:20 PM
quote:Originally posted by Dubdee

I think buying interest is FX related. Note OZ cross rate has declined at same timing buying has started. The market believes that FTX is sensitive to movements on the OZ cross rate. This only effects their wool carpet sales in OZ, so its not as big a deal as many think, but positive all the same


My initial reaction was "don't be silly", however having had a look at the AU/NZ cross rate and the SP, well it may be coinicidence but then again it may not, but there does seem to have been some correlation.
OZ is in fact the largest market for Feltex, and Feltex do keep mentioning the cross rate when prediciting profits.

So we have people reacting to the rate of the day as opposed to the predicted long term prognosis may be?

Lawso
28-11-2004, 10:54 AM
For what it's worth, Forsyth Barr are very positive about FTX in today's Sunday Herald. " . . . a number of attracive investment fundamentals . . . strong brands . . . full year '05 yield of 10.3%" FB reckon FTX is trading at a 25% discount to their valuation of $2.10 and recommend "Buy".
Remember though that this is the crowd that for years had FBU as a Sell.

Dontpet
19-12-2004, 03:04 PM
Why is it that I'm reminded of those scenes from the cowboy movies where everything is quiet, the hero is standing out in the open plain and around the corner stream a herd of angry cattle (and not the denobbed kiwi variety)? Having recently seen my interest in Briscoes and Sandford take a drubbing my confidence is failing with this producer of mite homes. Any comments?

halcyon9
19-12-2004, 03:16 PM
reading Sharetrader would have kept you out of both BGR and SAN.

I recommended a SELL on both (with alternative options) and most people were not bullish on these shares over the last year.


eg... http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=19284

3rd page, post by cloudnine.




welcome to the site

Dontpet
19-12-2004, 09:51 PM
Yeah, Ok, Sanford was a clear dud and I don't know why I stayed into it [B)]. BRG opinion seems to have been more clearly divided about. But Feltex doesn't seem to be producing much interest on this site. Is that the lack of speculative potential?

What I'm asking is is this company uninteresting because of it's limited potential or uninteresting because it is a writeoff (ex. Sanford)?

PS Thanks for the welcome:). It's great reading the ditties that people write on this site. The little wars between the personalities (some of whom might or might not exist)add a little spice to the more thoughtful postings.

limegreen
19-12-2004, 10:13 PM
Less speculative stocks are often less talked about. Some of my better long-term returners attract very little comment at all, so that's certainly part of it.

Earnings forecasts and prospective dividend yield suggest there may be some upside to FTX, but the proof will be in the pudding (or closer to the announcing as the case may be). In the interim there is not a great deal to say.....

limegreen
22-12-2004, 02:59 PM
It's hasn't happened on substantial volume, but FTX has broken above it's 3 month resistance level of $1.59. (That one spike peaks at 1.66, which is almost 1.59 + 6c divi). Will be interesting to watch over the next few trading days.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/ftx22dec04.gif

winner69
24-01-2005, 10:00 AM
Come on guys .. I started this thread last September and it is still about the same price

Has that burst a few weeks ago the best this stock can do?

Doing better then CAV though

Snow Leopard
24-01-2005, 10:42 AM
If we assume that the market sees Feltex as Oz/Nz exchange rate sensitive as suggested by Dubdee then the recent rise and fall can be attributed to the rate movement.
The six months result must be out by the beginning of March and I guess we will see how Feltex has faired. In my opinion the market is expecting a lower than forecast profit and is worried that life is rather difficult for our favourite carpet maker.
Hopefully they will have a bit of a surprise for us and confidence will wash over all those potential share buyers out there.
Must admit I have been a little disappointed so far but I bought in with the intention of giving them till the 05 FY results to prove themselves and have so far stuck with it, but I have been tempted to hit the sell button more than once.

Exercising patience can be a very fustrating experience at times. :)
CAV: Knowing that someone is doing worse doesn't cheer me up that much [B)]

limegreen
24-01-2005, 12:26 PM
quote:The six months result must be out by the beginning of March

Or if they're being uber-diligent, they could arrive relatively soon. We're only a week off 3 months since their first quarter report (although six month might take more preparation?). Anyway, in the quarterly review they suggested that profitability is strongest in the second and fourth quarters, so with the first quarter looking good, maybe a second quarter surprise and divi announcement might provide some impetus.

DISC: FTX

limegreen
26-01-2005, 09:52 AM
Trend following would seem to have created a good strategy for FTX thus far. Or at least selling on the trend break would have got IPO holders out on the right side of the balance sheet.
FTX now appears to be in a shallow uptrend. With three touches on the line, we just need a new high.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/ftx27jan04.gif

johna
27-01-2005, 08:45 AM
And a break through the $1.64 resistance!

Snow Leopard
28-01-2005, 12:46 PM
We have hit 1.65 :)
I am just going to have a short rest to recover [:0]

limegreen
28-01-2005, 01:54 PM
1.66!!! Resistance well and truly broken. Now we just need to bust through 1.75, and we'll be well on our way!

Snow Leopard
28-01-2005, 01:59 PM
So when do you reckon on $1.75? Today or not till next week?

Snow Leopard
28-01-2005, 02:03 PM
1.67 [:p][:p][:p][:p][:p]
What is going on [?]

limegreen
28-01-2005, 02:13 PM
Whether there is a rational FA answer who knows. However, from a TA perspective, sometimes a break through resistance can result in a bit of a runaway I think.
Perhaps there has been someone trying to offload a sizeable chunk over the last little while, but has been knocking it off in dribs and drabs, and that has kept the price down, without the appearance of there being a large seller. Now that this hypothetical `idiot' is out of the market, everyone is seeing the value that we knew was there all along. Next week, we'll just be wishing that we'd topped up LOL.

rmbbrave
28-01-2005, 02:26 PM
I have a few Feltex and few AIR NZ shares and both of them have shown a bit of life today. They are almost the same price and both are about to pay their first dividend for a long time.

Which of these are the better share?

limegreen
28-01-2005, 02:36 PM
Feltex paid a divi last year. Having only just re-listed, their yield is still subject to a little speculation, but is expected to be around 10%. Thus, I think anticipation of results and coming divi may be a nice little driver to the shareprice. I haven't looked at AIR much, so can't comment.

duncan macgregor
28-01-2005, 02:36 PM
RMBBRAVE, I would put it the other way and ask which is the worst share. The high dollar takes care of feltex. Air nz i thought we all know to give it a miss. Between the two feltex is the best {the dollar will eventualy come right one day. MACDUNK

rmbbrave
28-01-2005, 02:49 PM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

RMBBRAVE, I would put it the other way and ask which is the worst share. The high dollar takes care of feltex. Air nz i thought we all know to give it a miss. Between the two feltex is the best {the dollar will eventualy come right one day. MACDUNK


I know these 2 haven't risen in the past year but I only have small amounts of money in each. I find that the only way I pay attention to a particular share is if I have money in them. What other shares do you recommend watching?

duncan macgregor
28-01-2005, 02:56 PM
RMBBRAVE, The very worst possible thing to do at the running of the bulls is to waste your time worrying about dog races. I never give advice and tell you what to buy but hold PGG, TPW, NOG, All sitting on uptrends. CHEERS MACDUNK

rmbbrave
28-01-2005, 03:08 PM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

RMBBRAVE, The very worst possible thing to do at the running of the bulls is to waste your time worrying about dog races. I never give advice and tell you what to buy but hold PGG, TPW, NOG, All sitting on uptrends. CHEERS MACDUNK



Thanks very much Duncan

"at the running of the bulls (don't) waste your time worrying about dog races" That's a great line. Is it an original?

I have a lot of money in TPW and NOG but I am always looking for the next growth story to replace them when they stall. Perhaps I should buy a few PGG so I am forced to follow it closely.

duncan macgregor
28-01-2005, 05:27 PM
RMBBRAVE, short answer yes but i had plenty of practice when i was younger. macdunk

rmbbrave
28-01-2005, 08:51 PM
Practice? doing what?

Running with the bulls in Pamplona or betting on the dogs?

Cryptic as always, Duncan.

Dazza
28-01-2005, 09:37 PM
whats the url for stockmonster?

rmbbrave
29-01-2005, 01:51 PM
quote:Originally posted by Dazza

whats the url for stockmonster?


Are you looking for www.stocknessmonster.com ?

limegreen
01-02-2005, 04:11 PM
+3 on pretty good turnover. Maybe the divi announcement is going to be a good one!

Lawso
01-02-2005, 04:22 PM
I'm unimpressed with FTX - both the sluggish s p and the lack of imputation credits. I was a bondholder and got the shares @ 161.5 in the IPO. Watching the current creep upwards. When it hits 170 it will be a case of "I'm Goff and I'm off".

Dazza
01-02-2005, 05:54 PM
jumped ship at 1.56 in november, invested in NOG instead with the money , n have made an easy 70% gain.

this stock is a snail IMO.
brought it in the ipo for 1.70 due to hype

being it will be in nzse50 and biggest float in nzl since contact, blah blah blah blah blah.

enough said, like someone says, the market has better things to invest in.... or trade

go NOG!

Snow Leopard
02-02-2005, 05:24 AM
Of course the issue is not what this share was, but what this share will be.
The share price is now in an uptrend, and I believe it still has potential for more growth having started from a low base.
Given that I bought on the 20th Sep last year at 158 the annualised capital growth to yesterday is 17.11% and reasonable divvies as well :).

The half-year result is coming up, the hope is that it is a reasonable/good one to maintain the recent recovery.

limegreen
02-02-2005, 09:18 AM
quote:the lack of imputation credits
This is to do with a change in the ownership structure prior to listing (ie, the newly listed FTX entity didn't get the tax credits from the previous whatever). Future dividends will start to carry imputation credits. I'm with PT on this. I didn't get in on the IPO, and got in in Sept with annualised growth of about 15%. So not up with NOG yet, but have hopes for the future.

limegreen
02-02-2005, 10:59 AM
quote:When it hits 170 it will be a case of "I'm Goff and I'm off".

So are you out, as per your plan Lawso? Or you going to hold on for a little more upside?

Lawso
02-02-2005, 04:57 PM
Yes, I'm putting in an order to sell @ 170 - maybe tomorrow ??

Lawso
02-02-2005, 07:58 PM
But what to buy? Sorely tempted by FPA at the current price, but too many problmes there, I reckon, including fierce competition.

Lawso
02-02-2005, 08:11 PM
Have just seen Phaedrus's amazing FPA Chart on the thread of that name. Tells a very graphic story. No thanks to FPA. Too volatile for my taste.
PS. Am I talking to myself, or just rambling?

Gryffyn
02-02-2005, 09:05 PM
or maybe rambling to self ;)

limegreen
03-02-2005, 09:27 AM
quote:I'm putting in an order to sell @ 170

I'm a very small player, but according to my current philosophy, if I was going to have sold, I would have got out while it was in the doldrums. Now that the price appears to be moving somewhere, I'd be tempted to stick with it (even for the short term). From my perspective, I bought in at what I hoped was more or less the bottom, and this recent price action was what I was hoping for. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you appear to be selling out having minimised a loss. If you were going to move your money to better prospects October would have been the time. I'm rambling a bit too, but I would wonder whether you'd be better to set a tight-ish stop on the current price, just in case forthcoming announcement and divi spur the price into further action. Further, from a technical perspective, you'd 'expect' resistance at 1.74/5, so if it halts there, that would also perhaps be a time to get out.

DISC: As I'm planning to hold, I obviously have a positive bias on forward prospects.

Lawso
03-02-2005, 09:36 AM
Thanks for the thoughtful response, limegreen. Fact is, though, that I'm taking a modest profit (having bought at 161.5 and received a 6c div) and looking to put the proceeds to better use elsewhere. 170 suits me fine.

limegreen
03-02-2005, 10:06 AM
Fair enough, your perspective has given me something to think about as well. I got in about 1.63 +6 (I had to wait for payday, otherwise would have bought at 1.61); and FTX is certainly on the block, but I'm hopeful I might see a bit more yet. Care to share your thoughts on good "elsewheres"?

Lawso
03-02-2005, 10:38 AM
See my new thread Underweight etc on Investment Strategies. But am still dithering about other possible purchases - shares and/or bonds[?]

Snow Leopard
03-02-2005, 11:28 AM
1.66, Humph, the steam as well and truly gone out of this little run [V]

limegreen
03-02-2005, 01:34 PM
1.65 with support expected at 1.64 based on previous resistance. The silver lining of this is that it may set up a new higher low to set a steeper uptrend than the last one I drew in.

Fish Broker
03-02-2005, 06:36 PM
quote:Originally posted by limegreen

1.65 with support expected at 1.64 based on previous resistance. The silver lining of this is that it may set up a new higher low to set a steeper uptrend than the last one I drew in.


Lets hope so - I still think it is a good story once people look beyond the company's checkered history - medium termer though and not a quick traders stock - good income and imputation credits will follow, and that should put a floor under the price.

limegreen
04-02-2005, 09:59 AM
FTX is actually behaving quite nicely with respect to resistance becoming support. The red lines show some resistance lines. As you can see, in it's recent run, each broken resistance line has become support. Hopefully we will soon see a breach of the 1.64 and 1.74/5 lines, and some blue sky :)
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/ftx4feb04.gif

J. Holmes
07-02-2005, 07:40 AM
Happy to hold this one, esp compared to CAV.

Good dividend, and most importantly to me...an extremely open share register.

Could be interesting grab for someone, especially if it can keeps its earnings/dividend at this level.

Snow Leopard
08-02-2005, 05:56 AM
Although only a trainee chartist, I would say that things are currently promising for Feltex. There has been a reasonable rise in the OBV over the last two weeks and we have a nice little uptrend.
Let us hope that it lasts, the half year results will be along at some point.

Lawso
12-02-2005, 07:29 PM
As I may have said before (must stop repeating myself on ST). Fixed interest doesn't have to be boring. Example: Feltex 10.25% bonds.
I bought $10k worth in April '03. In the IPO last June the bonds were swopped for 6192 shares @ 161.5c (issue price was 170). Income from the bonds totalled $1264.05 net Incl. an early redemption payment of $662.90 net) and there was the 6cps final div on the shares in October.
I've just sold the shares @ 168 because they seem to be going nowhere and unlike others on this thread I think there are much better buys on the market. My total net return after tax and brokerage is $11,807.50, a net gain of 18.07% in 22 months.
OK, so plenty of stocks have done as well or better in our bull market but plenty have performed a lot worse.

Snow Leopard
13-02-2005, 07:14 AM
quote:
I've just sold the shares @ 168 because they seem to be going nowhere and unlike others on this thread I think there are much better buys on the market

I would disagree that they seem to be going nowhere, I would actually say that AT LAST they are finally going somewhere. I would also say that there are other good buys on the market.

The statement "past performance is no indication of future..." Also applies to anything that previously has not done well.

Still each to his own :)

Disc: FTX IFT MFT NOGOC TWR

Snow Leopard
23-02-2005, 06:49 AM
Well today is half year results announcement day.

Given that we have had heard nothing to the contrary then I guess the result will be inline with the IPO document forecast despite the AU/NZ exchange rate going against them. Also I guess we get a 6c dividend with partial imputation credits so that we get actually get 5c each.
Additionally I expect them to be cautious, as usual, with their statement for the second half.

Steve
23-02-2005, 07:23 AM
Agreed that it will be a surprise if there is any significant difference from the IPO document.

Still, surprises do make life interesting...

Snow Leopard
23-02-2005, 08:26 AM
quote:Originally posted by Steve

Agreed that it will be a surprise if there is any significant difference from the IPO document.

Still, surprises do make life interesting...




quote:
HALFYR: FTX: Feltex Carpets - Interim Result Enables Increased Dividend


Another famous PT error. Having said earlier that I was expecting a 6c divvy and the announcement says raised divvy to 6c I have gone and read the IPO doc. There the forecast for this divvy was about 5.25c.
So we have an extra 0.75c per share and I was not expecting it to be fully imputed.
IPO doc implies the original end of year divvy will be about 7.8c but I guess there will be an imputation shortage then.

This report looks good at first glance.

Snow Leopard
23-02-2005, 09:51 AM
Well the SP has now dropped 9c to 160 after the result. [V]
Obviously me and the market have different opinions on this company. [B)]
What the **** were people expecting? [:0]

duncan macgregor
23-02-2005, 09:59 AM
PAPER TIGER, The people think the dollar is to high for this one. The past is over its the future that looks tougher for this company reflects in the sp. macdunk

Snow Leopard
23-02-2005, 10:50 AM
No thats not it, we have known the dollar is difficult for FTX etc for at least half a year.
The future is tough but this company is proving (so far) that it can adapt to it.

limegreen
23-02-2005, 11:12 AM
The price has pulled back up a bit, so it seems like perhaps just the rush of people buying and selling post-announcement caused a negative blip (which may well have hit a few stops). We'll have a nice cup of 'erbal now, and reassess at close.

Steve
23-02-2005, 12:13 PM
Given that FTX is pretty much in tract with their IPO document, I was also surprised with this mornings dip...

Nevl
23-02-2005, 12:43 PM
Still sitting on a small gain will wait for the divi and then decide whether to hold for the longer term. Sounds like they are making good progress and it would be a good long term yield share. A sort of Hallensteins for carpet. With not too much in the way of flucuations. Anyway post divi price about 165cps will be good for me as I got in at 157 and have had one divi already

James K
23-02-2005, 12:53 PM
Presumably, the price fell becuase of the outlook statement. I.e. "Carpet demand will present challenges to the Group over the next six months,particularly in the Australian volume segments of the residential market. .... Projected sales for the full year will not meet levels projected in the IPO Prospectus. .... Despite the Group not meeting the projected sales and the likelihood of acontinuing strong New Zealand dollar, EBITDA and net profit projections for the year remain achievable."

What does the last bit mean? We will achieve profit projections if fortune favours the brave? if everything goes well? It sounds a bit like they are signalling there is a real risk they will come in under those projections. And CAV have already marginally reduced their NPAT forecasts for 04/05 from $22.5 to $21m to $22m.

limegreen
23-02-2005, 01:04 PM
quote: What does the last bit mean?

Or perhaps their "reduced costs" and "increased margins" mean they believe their targets are achievable even with slightly lower sales.

Snow Leopard
23-02-2005, 01:04 PM
What that means is that the hedge their bets.
"We can do it, we are on track to do it, but we don't guarantee that we will do it."
This is the cautious statement I predicted for the second half.

limegreen
23-02-2005, 02:48 PM
Righto, so after this morning's panic selling, it's back up to opening money. Who's betting on a higher close? Either way, at current progress it looks like the support at 1.64/1.65 will hold, ditto the shallow confirmed trendline based on closing prices (although I will admit the price action has been through both today). So perhaps nothing to freak about quite yet.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/ftx22feb05.gif

Steve
23-02-2005, 08:24 PM
I agree LG. My guess is that the trendline will hold for now, but could possibly be broken late March/early April...

Snow Leopard
24-02-2005, 06:44 AM
Feltex focus on premium sales (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10112356)
"Feltex Carpets is finding the profit in the industry as it heads upstream in the carpet market."

Feltex warns on dollar impact (http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3197487a13,00.html)
"Feltex Carpets says it expects lower sales than forecast for the year because of the strength of the Kiwi dollar against the Australian."

Both talking about the same thing, the half year result announcement.

Steve
24-02-2005, 06:55 AM
PT, the quote that I really like:

"We're not a sales-driven organisation. We want to maximise our profits on the sales we generate."

NO DISCOUNTING HERE!

James K
24-02-2005, 01:12 PM
I want to illustrate my earlier post with some numbers.
In 1H FTX earned EBITDA of $24.6m on revenues of $160.5m. A margin of 15.3% (up from 13.4% in 1H last year).
To meet propsectus forecasts they have to earn EBITDA of $27.1m in 2H on sales they forecast at $150-$155m. A margin of 17.8%. That is a big improvement in 2H margins versus the 1H.

So on 2H sales that are approx $8m lower, they are saying they will earn $2.5m more EBITDA. Possible, but that looks a stretch to me.
Good luck to them (and all holders).

winner69
11-03-2005, 06:29 PM
Back to the price when i started this thread

Interest rates up ... dollar up ... spending down ... etc etc

Even more pressure on the shareprice over the next dew weeks/month I would say

Dazza
11-03-2005, 08:03 PM
thats why i exited in november to buy NOG
now who said that they werent interest sensitive
who said cav are in a niche blah blah blah blah :D

go nog baby :D

winner69
21-03-2005, 09:27 PM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Well the SP has now dropped 9c to 160 after the result. [V]
Obviously me and the market have different opinions on this company. [B)]
What the **** were people expecting? [:0]




... and I take it that you and the markets still have different views with the price (150) even below that dashed red line on limegreens chart

Isn't the forthcoming 6 cent dividend included in the 150 as well

Obviously little positive sentiment around - even more so since the rtaes rise last week.

Even if higher interest rates doesn't affect demand for carpet (I think it will) maybe the punters are worried about the $100M plus of debt that FTX has and higher interest costs etc

Or maybe it is the continued high dollar that is providing this negative sentiment

Whatever still too many uncertainities for me and the chart looking pretty sad as well

limegreen
21-03-2005, 09:52 PM
I'm glad that I escaped when I did. With the increase in interest rates, the dividend yield is far less appealing. I wouldn't re-consider until such time as the SP moves above $1.75. I'd rather be fashionably late, than to arrive early and see what people look like with the lights on and without the benefits of a few glasses of wine.

Snow Leopard
22-03-2005, 06:47 AM
The SP is not doing too well is it?
Despite projected for year at SP = 150:
Gross Yield = 10.9%
P/E = 8.67 (or if the miss their target by 10% P/E = 9.61)

Still you can not argue with the market.

Did you know that most of their loans are in A$? I certainly did not.

winner69
22-03-2005, 08:13 PM
And PT did you note that borrowings went up $20M from June to Dec ... because of negative operating cash flows and $9M in capex

That despite such a strong EBITDA result

Snow Leopard
22-03-2005, 08:57 PM
Yes.
Do you need an explanation of why and whether it is good or bad or can you read the financials yourself?

winner69
30-03-2005, 08:04 PM
Even with that 6 cent dividend to come still going down ... and even hit 144 today

The talk of a lower dollar hasn't helped so the market must be concerned about the trading conditions that FTX need to endure if there is a hard landing in the economy

Snow Leopard
31-03-2005, 06:39 AM
High dollar bad, low dollar bad.
Perhaps the market just does not like Feltex?
Or maybe it just does not understand Feltex?
Pity really

Cooper
31-03-2005, 06:54 AM
The biggest question for me is can the divi be maintained? If yes, then this stock looks like a good yield play. Anybody who can enlighten me with their opinion?

Gryffyn
31-03-2005, 07:15 AM
nice to have you back posting on the main board coop. no opinion on div maintenance at present

Cooper
31-03-2005, 07:50 AM
Thanks Gryff... have been looking at FTX for a while and was going to buy last week before everything on my computer screen started turning red. None held at present, but watching with a lot of interest.

Snow Leopard
01-04-2005, 08:28 AM
Ouch!

quote:
FTX
01/04/2005
FORECAST

REL: 0906 HRS Feltex Carpets Limited

FORECAST: FTX: EARNINGS GUIDANCE FOR THE YEAR ENDING 30 JUNE 2005

Friday, 1 April 2005

FELTEX CARPETS LIMITED

EARNINGS GUIDANCE FOR THE YEAR ENDING 30 JUNE 2005

Based on the latest market assessment and current management information
prior to the finalisation of the third quarter's earnings for the quarter
ended 31 March 2005, and a significantly revised market outlook for the
remainder of the financial year, the Directors of Feltex advise that the
sales for the full year are now projected to be between $295 million and $305
million. This is below the previous guidance provided in the interim report
of between $310 million and $315 million.

Net profit after tax is now projected to be between $15 million and $16
million for the year ending 30 June 2005. This is between $8 million and $9
million less than the previous projection.

Key reasons for the revised projections are as follows:
? Feltex has found the market environment in Australia and New Zealand more
difficult than expected in the first quarter of the calendar year.
? Although our commercial retailers and contractors remain confident for the
current financial year, and next year, they have experienced a delay in
projects due to the current shortage of laying contractors.
? Our key residential retailers have recently advised us of the continued
low store traffic in the first quarter of the calendar year, which has
reduced their confidence for the remainder of the financial year.
? We have experienced increased price competition in the market primarily
due to synthetic imports being higher than projected (due to the strength of
the A$ versus the US$) and the general slow down in the Australian
residential market. This price competition has impacted the Company's
ability to fully pass on additional first quarter synthetic raw material cost
increases. Synthetic based raw material costs are expected to continue to
move up in the near term and our ability to recoup these cost increases will
depend on competitive pressures.
? The reduction in local Australian manufacturers' share of the market due
to rising synthetic imports and the slowing Australian residential market, is
frustrating the Company's ability to reach its projected market share
increases.
? The ongoing strength of the New Zealand dollar, which remains above our
projections, continues to have an adverse effect on the Company's
performance.

Dividend Reinvestment Plan

With regard to the interim dividend, which is being paid on 8 April 2005, the
Company will be advising the appointed Broker to the Dividend Reinvestment
Plan not to purchase the required Additional Shares for Participating
Shareholders until the market has absorbed the above information.

ENDS
End CA:00113490 For:FTX Type:FORECAST Time:2005-04-01:09:06:59

Dazza
01-04-2005, 08:35 AM
will have to see how the markets respond to this..

Snow Leopard
01-04-2005, 08:41 AM
Would you be surprised if it gets dumped on opening, recovers slightly and then wanders down today, monday and maybe tuesday.
Keep an eye on CAV as well, if you are interested.

PS Today is record date for the half year 6c divvy. I don't think there will be much full year if the EPS is now projected to be 10c.

port hills
01-04-2005, 09:03 AM
wow $1 seller no buyer $1 last [V]

nelehdine
01-04-2005, 09:24 AM
Reminds me of Vertex ... look where they are now !!

Disc: just bgt 5k FTX at $1

Bud Fox
01-04-2005, 09:56 AM
What an irrational knee-jerk reaction!

FTX's Balance Date is June, so all of this is relatively short sighted.

On balance, at $1.00 per share these things are looking cheap.

Bud Fox
2002 NZ Stock Guru Champion

limegreen
01-04-2005, 10:00 AM
They certainly are looking cheap. Makes me glad that I'm out, so that I can consider buying back in!

Lawso
01-04-2005, 10:21 AM
CARPET BAGGED! Not only FTX, currently down a whopping 51c to 99, but also CAV, down 15 to 365. An over-reaction surely.

One of the few things I've done right lately was to sell out of FTX at 168 (nice little profit). Still holding CAV, of course, and tempted to buy more at this silly price.

Elsewhere it's reported that building consents issued in February were the highest in four months - though 14.1% below Feb '04.

winner69
01-04-2005, 10:30 AM
Tis dramatic stuff ...

.... liked the BIG BOLD HEADLINES IN THE ANNOUNCEMENT AS WELL

Is April 1st?

But what a disaster but reading the thread again there is nothing new in this news except all the bad things that people said might happen looks like it is happening

we all live (inc FTX management) live in hope

Snow Leopard
01-04-2005, 10:46 AM
Amazing how FTX has gone from doing well at the half year results announcement on the 23 feb to this five weeks later.
They had a HY profit of $12.2 million and now are only expecting at best $16 million, that is some squeeze.
So where to now? Is $1 a share cheap? Maybe not.

winner69
01-04-2005, 11:47 AM
So $4M in second half .... market conditions remain similar .... sort of says $8M for a year ...... market cap at $1 is $150M .... so around a PE of 18 at this level

Makes you wonder .....

winner69
01-04-2005, 12:26 PM
This dude James Lindsay Tyndall Investment Management said it was one of the worst downgrades he had seen

He said "They're losing market share, the product mix doesn't seem to be right, the high NZ dollar, slowing Aussie market, raw material costs, import competition -- those aren't easily solveable and quickly solveable problems, so I would say these sorts of results are here to stay,"
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/050331/20/3xd6.html

Not easily solveable ... not a good long term prognosis .... for a $150M (market cap) company with $100M of debt

limegreen
01-04-2005, 12:56 PM
This is a little bit off-topic, but did anyone have a broker managed stop loss set (as opposed to a piece of paper with a stop which you honoured yourself). That is, I presume that today's price action would have broke most sensible estimates of a stop, so did you get your shares sold at $1, or did your broker decide not to send your order to market (on the assumption that the loss was too grusome)?

Incidentally, I'd hope that most with a set stop would have it set at the bottom of the trading range, and thus would have got out about a week ago at $1.50...

nelehdine
01-04-2005, 01:40 PM
Just flicked my 5000 that I bgt at $1 this morning for $1.06 ... $235 after bkg , not a bad days work and will pay for some nice treats over the W/E.

Thanks Feltex.

Bling_Bling
01-04-2005, 02:54 PM
The fundamentals have not changed, so why buy? The property market is not looking to recover for at least another year or two.

Snow Leopard
01-04-2005, 04:15 PM
Disclosure Notices for Sam Magill & John Kokic coming up. Want to bet that they have shown their confidence by buying shares today [?]

So I was wrong they bought before the fall [:0]
Sam Migill bought 40,000 shares at $1.47 on 30/31 March 05
John Kokic bought 30,000 shares at $1.50 on 31 March 05.

winner69
01-04-2005, 06:30 PM
Minder 8/5/03 posted -

There will be many tears cried when the building downturn in Australasia bite into Feltex in the next few years.

Forbar is only doing what the 'thickos' out there want - high yields. CSFB however is very very smart to take advantage of their thickness.

Score - Feltex, CSFB and Forbar : several million dollars up each. 'Thicko' investors : many millions down already (but don't know).

Sideshow Bob
01-04-2005, 06:53 PM
Surely must have been good buying at $1.00 with 6cps fully imputed dividend with a record date of today.

Further lows on Monday..................

clearasmud
01-04-2005, 08:51 PM
this is a highly geared co is it not.

perhaps best left alone.

Bling_Bling
02-04-2005, 06:17 AM
quote:Originally posted by Sideshow Bob

Surely must have been good buying at $1.00 with 6cps fully imputed dividend with a record date of today.

Further lows on Monday..................


The real question is, can they sustain this div if there are further downgrades and downturn in the building industry. Also FTX is a highly geared company.

winner69
02-04-2005, 07:24 AM
Full Year earnings down $8-9M on expectations is pretty bad

But how wrong did FTX get their projections?

Well a month ago they said that EBIT for the second half of the year was going to be about $20M

NOW IT IS GOING TO BE ABOUT $7M

They got it wrong by $13M - or about 65%

Full honest disclosure ... yeah right

Would you ever trust anything this outfit says again ... doubt it

Feel story for those caught out by the bull ****

02-04-2005, 08:59 AM
Winner remember my original post why did the original owners want to sell?

Cooper
02-04-2005, 01:03 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

Minder 8/5/03 posted -

There will be many tears cried when the building downturn in Australasia bite into Feltex in the next few years.

Forbar is only doing what the 'thickos' out there want - high yields. CSFB however is very very smart to take advantage of their thickness.

Score - Feltex, CSFB and Forbar : several million dollars up each. 'Thicko' investors : many millions down already (but don't know).



Doesn't surprise me. Minder has always struck me as someone worth listening to as a contrarian voice. Incidentally, I think Sharebroker = Minder.

FTX said five weeks ago that it could meet it's profit forecasts, and now it says the profits will be 13.5% (ish) down. That's poor by anyone's standards and their credibility is now justifiably questionable. Still watching this co. but happy I didn't buy in before friday. Increasing costs and decreasing margins doesn't make for a very profitable future, in the short term.

I guess that kind of answers my question regarding whether or not the previously expected divi was viable. The question is now obviously whether the market has overreacted.

02-04-2005, 01:05 PM
And dont fogget it SB has many names and terrible THOUGHTS..;)

Dazza
02-04-2005, 08:19 PM
feel sorry for SB and co.... why would u want ur name tainted in a forum? sigh
what ppl do these days to be 'different'

03-04-2005, 02:51 PM
Why have an IPO if it's not to grow the co', or the last opportunity for the owners to dump it when the growth cycle is nearly over?
Haven't looked at Methven lately.

TerryA
03-04-2005, 04:26 PM
Haven't looked at Methven lately.

Don't

PLK
04-04-2005, 07:10 AM
why cav revenue for half year to dec 2004 $101.342M can make 10m PAT
But FTX $160.2m only make 12m PAT

why FTX cost so much more?
can anyone tell me where did FTX spend all their moeny?

Sharebroker
04-04-2005, 07:25 AM
quote:Originally posted by Dazza

feel sorry for SB and co.... why would u want ur name tainted in a forum? sigh
what ppl do these days to be 'different'



Thanks for your kind concernm, Dazza - I have just been savaged by the neutered chihuahua, Kingi, with his backing of THE MINUS 116% UNDERPERFORMER BGR. So obviously I need help.:D

PLK - the announcement from the company tells why its profit margin in the secomd half is lower than the first. Suggest you read it.

FTX is stuffed in the next 12 months - credibility is out the window and no institution is going to want to touch this stock. First rule of investing is : can you trust the management.

TerryA
04-04-2005, 08:09 AM
Feltex goes ex 6 cents today so the benchmark SP for this morning is probably around 97 cents.

Any bets ?

winner69
04-04-2005, 09:42 AM
Most will take 9 cents (imputation credits) off Fridays price so if closed at 97 today it will show +3 (+3.2%)

I'd hazard a guess and say people can't believe the fall and get sucked in and FTX will close at 105 today

04-04-2005, 11:52 AM
quote:Originally posted by Sharebroker

[quote]Originally posted by Dazza

feel sorry for SB and co.... why would u want ur name tainted in a forum? sigh
what ppl do these days to be 'different'



Thanks for your kind concernm, Dazza - I have just been savaged by the neutered chihuahua, Kingi, with his backing of THE MINUS 116% UNDERPERFORMER BGR. So obviously I need help.:D

SB admits down on the ROPES.. ;)

Cooper
04-04-2005, 11:55 AM
It seems that FTX are due for further cost increase in the near term, and I personally can't see sales increasing dramatically for them (based solely on my own estimates of cyclical factors) in the same time period. Therefore I would assume that these cost increases will not be passed on and margins will suffer.

However... I think 90 cents might be a bit cheap. Even though they are ex-div today as mentioned.

kura
04-04-2005, 12:22 PM
Anyone know the financial ratios to be maintained for bankers ?

port hills
04-04-2005, 04:04 PM
FTX sure gained some momentum in the last half hour, at some price or other it must be cheap, I wonder if we are there yet. [?]

limegreen
04-04-2005, 04:17 PM
Catching the falling knife and all. I'm not really even looking at this stage, but I think I'd rather miss the bottom by a good margin than find out that it wasn't the bottom.

Snow Leopard
04-04-2005, 04:40 PM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Would you be surprised if it gets dumped on opening, recovers slightly and then wanders down today, monday and maybe tuesday.

Surprised at the late dump today.
However it is very hard to put a value on this at the moment.
The NTA is about $0.43 I think. ;)

duncan macgregor
04-04-2005, 04:48 PM
The sp will drop to low for what it is so buy when it finally bottoms, and get the dead cat bounce if nothing else. macdunk

Sharebroker
04-04-2005, 05:20 PM
One broker forecasting $8m next year so stock now trading on PER of 19.4 times!

Long long long way to go .....[xx(]

PGL
04-04-2005, 05:28 PM
quote:Originally posted by Sharebroker


One broker forecasting $8m next year so stock now trading on PER of 19.4 times!
Long long long way to go .....[xx(]


How do you figure that Market cap is $128 million? Gives PER of 16 or am I overlooking something?

Snow Leopard
04-04-2005, 05:42 PM
quote:Originally posted by PGL


quote:Originally posted by Sharebroker


One broker forecasting $8m next year so stock now trading on PER of 19.4 times!
Long long long way to go .....[xx(]


How do you figure that Market cap is $128 million? Gives PER of 16 or am I overlooking something?





Sharebroker is absolutely pathetic at doing basic sums!

Sharebroker
04-04-2005, 06:07 PM
quote:Originally posted by PGL


quote:Originally posted by Sharebroker


One broker forecasting $8m next year so stock now trading on PER of 19.4 times!
Long long long way to go .....[xx(]


How do you figure that Market cap is $128 million? Gives PER of 16 or am I overlooking something?



[:I][:I]You are right.[:I][:I]

Still a long way to go though. [xx(]

winner69
04-04-2005, 07:09 PM
I suggested $8M the other day as future earnings base

Half 2 NPAT likely to be $3M

Remember what that dude from Tyndall Investment Management said "They're losing market share, the product mix doesn't seem to be right, the high NZ dollar, slowing Aussie market, raw material costs, import competition -- those aren't easily solveable and quickly solveable problems, so I would say these sorts of results are here to stay,"

So maybe $6M next year is likely - todays market cap $128M ... forward PE >20

And don't forget that even before those merchant bankers hocked this outfit off EBIT wasn't much to write home about - like $6.2M in 2001 and only $1.8M in 2002.

Just because shareprice is half what it was a week or so ago doesn't make it cheap ... here is a company who a month ago was saying 2nd half profits were going to be close to $12M and now they are going to be $3M ... that is some miscalculation of short term performance ... or downright misleading

Even at 86 cents not for me

lucky
05-04-2005, 09:24 AM
The divi here is shown at 14%, is this correct. Of course it may not be maintained.

Snow Leopard
05-04-2005, 09:31 AM
where is here?
6c for the HY, double it, divide by 86c gives 14%, but that is net not gross and no way will they maintain it.
forcast EPS for the this year is now about 10c and they must be short on imputation credits.

Bud Fox
05-04-2005, 03:39 PM
So, dead cat bounce today or has it been over-sold?

Bud Fox
2002 NZ Stock Guru Champion

Snow Leopard
05-04-2005, 04:25 PM
1% of the shares traded today, a quiet day for the new FTX ;).
Almost wish I had bought some yesterday to sell today, but there is no knowing at the moment with this one.

dingdong
07-04-2005, 10:11 PM
It is a truly unworthy effort by Weldon and the NZCX that its largest IPO in 5 years has been a complete disaster.

Snow Leopard
08-04-2005, 06:11 AM
Anger at Feltex profit slump (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10119294)

winner69
08-04-2005, 06:25 AM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

Full Year earnings down $8-9M on expectations is pretty bad

But how wrong did FTX get their projections?

Well a month ago they said that EBIT for the second half of the year was going to be about $20M

NOW IT IS GOING TO BE ABOUT $7M

They got it wrong by $13M - or about 65%

Full honest disclosure ... yeah right

Would you ever trust anything this outfit says again ... doubt it

Feel story for those caught out by the bull ****


and i am not that analyst quoted in that Herald article ...

One analyst, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said Feltex's revised full-year profit forecast amounted to a prediction of a second- half profit of no more than $4 million - 70 per cent less than earlier forecasts.


Remember all the IPO hype based on a prospectus that turned a $20M loss not that many years ago into a $25M profit ... yeah right

Good luck to those who think they have a case but at the end of the day doesn't it all come down to good judgement and luck ... caveat emptor and all that of stuff

Is 87 CHEAP for FTX ... must be ... it's half price remember... and with credible management you can trust ... what a bargain

Bling_Bling
08-04-2005, 06:37 AM
The lower the share price the hard for them to service the huge debt and the more it makes the bankers nervous.[xx(]

port hills
08-04-2005, 06:38 AM
Winner 69

Sarcasim at 7.25am !!!
Your off to a good start.

I now feel like one of the lucky ones, I bought the IPO but sold at a small loss in the first few days $1.62. [^]

I can't see how the management can justify the change in sentiment in the 5 weeks from Feb 23rd (I think it was) till April 1st.
I'd love to see heads roll over this one but doubt they will. :(

port hills
08-04-2005, 06:52 AM
Obviously on February 23rd the management must have done one of three things.

1) known things for the seconed 1/2 looked really bad but lied about it. :(

2) Not had any information on the seconed 1/2 but gave out positive comments anyway. [V]

3) Had grossly incorrect imformation made avaliable to them and accepted it. [xx(]

Or at least thats the only three I can think of. :(

None of these options would give you any confidence in them.

Snow Leopard
08-04-2005, 07:09 AM
quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

The lower the share price the hard for them to service the huge debt and the more it makes the bankers nervous.[xx(]

The Share Price in itself has absolutely nothing to do with it. Whether the SP be $2.00 or $0.01 it does not modify the financials of the company, indeed the reverse is true.

Halebop
08-04-2005, 07:29 AM
Not always PT. Westmex the "1980's" Australian investment company ran into severe cashflow problems before its collapse because with its share price weakening, nervous trade creditors started demanding cash up front or refusing to supply. Despite owning a couple of stable and boring cashflow businesses Westmex couldn't cope with the crunch and went under.

Another parable is when there is a run on a bank. Despite being solvent Countrywide would not have survived the brief panic in the late 80s when queues of nervous depositors formed at its branches. BNZ and RBNZ saved the day by ensuring a steady supply of cash was delivered to their branches.

winner69
08-04-2005, 09:02 AM
Even Shoeshine in todays NBR is in on the act - FELTEX MELTDOWN

Nothong new that hasn't already been stated on Sharetrader

Ends with (quote) To Shoeshines mind nothing has happened now that wasn't happening on Feb 23rd when the company reiterated its prospectus forecast.her its management information systems are all but useless or its been keeping its fingers crossed for something to turn up and save the day (end quote)

The latter I feel

Half price today ... might get cheaper yet ... but could be a could buy when Magill gets the boot ... since the financiers left with their money he obviously has been floundering

Snow Leopard
08-04-2005, 09:27 AM
Opens at $0.86
"Down, down, deeper and down", where is the status quo [?]

Just another Friday :D

port hills
08-04-2005, 09:32 AM
A 12 minute standoff between buyers 85c and sellers 86c no one wants to sell at an all time low (85c) [xx(]

whiteheron
08-04-2005, 09:48 AM
The market is very vicious at present , more so than usual
Any share that does not perform to expectations is literally slaughtered
Have a good look at your holdings and assess them objectively
Exit any where you expect poor results before it is too late

That is my thought for the day

winner69
08-04-2005, 09:59 AM
Bankers would be reviewing some of the key ratios so assess the risk around interest payments and the overall state of the debt position

They probably have some covenants around this but I have no idea what they are.

Last balance sheet had debt in excess of $106M which was up $20M from six months prior

They did say in a round about sort of way that they borrowed to pay out $9M final dividends

And haven't they got another $9M to pay out soon ... ouch

Biggest problem with the banks is credibility ... FTX credibility with investors is zilch ... what do the banks believe in?

08-04-2005, 02:57 PM
Winner 69 if you have borrowed a million and can't meet the banks terms you have a problem. But if you have borrowed 106 million and can not meet the banks terms the bank has a problem.

Sharebroker
08-04-2005, 05:54 PM
The directors of this company are a disgrace - fancy hiding and making no comments when they have just presided over the destruction of over $80m in value.

Maybe disgrace is too kind a word - see the article in Shoeshine today? Makes the point that the company's explanations make no sense - and reading them in that light, they make no sense.

Well, here's hoping the Securities Commission do them over.:(

Bling_Bling
08-04-2005, 06:00 PM
Who should be shot? The promoters that sold this dog or the directors or both?

Sharebroker
08-04-2005, 07:07 PM
The promotors are to be congratulated! They got it away and the dumb directors are holding the baby.

danchop
08-04-2005, 07:34 PM
quote:Originally posted by ENIGMA

Winner 69 if you have borrowed a million and can't meet the banks terms you have a problem. But if you have borrowed 106 million and can not meet the banks terms the bank has a problem.
i think there will be quite a few one million borrowers at the moment which will cause the banks a problem

Anna Naum
09-04-2005, 08:17 PM
Well I doubt if this will be the last company over the next 18 months that has to come clean about increased costs and reduced income!! Roll on the FY results and foward comments.

Cooper
10-04-2005, 07:53 PM
ForBarr still have a positive outlook on ftx, stating that the margin pressures will be short term. But competition is increasing for a slowing market and input prices are going up, which doesn't spell much good for the short term profits, and I can't see how these are going to improve in the medium term unless input prices reduce.

But the question still remains whether or not FTX are undervalued at present. I would rather wait for the next profit announcement to find out.

winner69
11-04-2005, 06:27 AM
As stated before there were some alarm bells in the H1 financials, like really strong and improved EBITDA (a proxy for cash flow) BUT NEGATIVE OPERATING CASH FLOW

Add $9M capex and free cash flows were negative ....

Even had to borrow to pay that last years dividend (they said that)

Even at Fridays close plenty of improved times built into the shareprice ... and who has the confidence in current management to deliver.

winner69
12-04-2005, 05:50 AM
quote:Originally posted by Cooper

ForBarr still have a positive outlook on ftx, stating that the margin pressures will be short term. But competition is increasing for a slowing market and input prices are going up, which doesn't spell much good for the short term profits, and I can't see how these are going to improve in the medium term unless input prices reduce.

But the question still remains whether or not FTX are undervalued at present. I would rather wait for the next profit announcement to find out.


Cooper - you don't seem to agree with Forbar either. Obviously the same view as the man from Tyndalls who says that FTX problems are not easily solvable in the short to medium term.

Looks like H2 earnings to be $3M odd ... short term problems not easily solvable ... suggests next 12 months earnings $6M-$8M ... market cap at a share price of 83 cents is $124M .... a PE somewhere between 16 and 20

Add the $100M plus debt and FTX enterprose value $225M ... some 30-35 times earnings

Cooper - undervalued you ask ... far from it unless you feel prospects are quite good

Wonderful what a glossy prospectus does for you and remember those newspapers ads ... pretty good story eh

Bud Fox
12-04-2005, 08:13 AM
Winner69,

Your calculation of '...some 30 - 35 times earnings' is inaccurate and misleading.

You are dividing EV by NPAT (the latter is an after gearing measure).

The corect calculation would be EV / EBIT which removes the impact of interest as you have removed it by adding the debt in calculating EV.

That aside, I agree wholeheartedly with you that things are definetely looking far from rosy.

You certainly picked this one before the market!

Bud Fox
2002 NZ Stock Guru Champion

Cooper
12-04-2005, 05:34 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69


Cooper - you don't seem to agree with Forbar either. Obviously the same view as the man from Tyndalls who says that FTX problems are not easily solvable in the short to medium term.

Looks like H2 earnings to be $3M odd ... short term problems not easily solvable ... suggests next 12 months earnings $6M-$8M ... market cap at a share price of 83 cents is $124M .... a PE somewhere between 16 and 20

Add the $100M plus debt and FTX enterprose value $225M ... some 30-35 times earnings

Cooper - undervalued you ask ... far from it unless you feel prospects are quite good

Wonderful what a glossy prospectus does for you and remember those newspapers ads ... pretty good story eh


You're right, I don't agree with Forbarr. I think their belief that the problems with margins are short term is pretty optimistic. FTX are coming off what was theoretically a boom period, and yet margins were still low. So competition is fierce? That's not going to get any easier as demand reduces.

Add the loss of faith the market now has with the company and things look a little shabbier. Your calcs reinforce that. So yeah... something is keeping me watching but I'm not interested in buying until the next profit announcement, when we'll see if they're right (and I'm not) and extra costs can be passed on.

JAMP
12-04-2005, 07:48 PM
Of all companies on the NZX you would expect a carpet company to be able to put a floor under its shareprice!

FTX mentioned that (due to competitive pressures from off-shore carpet companies) the strength of the Australasian currencies has attributed to their ability to maintain margins in the region. This would suggest that a number of these off-shore carpet companies are gaining an insight into the Australasian market for (possibly) the first time. When the currency turns against them, perhaps one of these companies will be looking to maintain their newly established foothold in the region. Does FTX figure as a tuck-in proposition at this point in time I wonder?

I have dabbled with a small holding at $0.85, now it is just a matter of seeing whether the foundations of the company have enough strength to support the weight of discontent it is currently bearing.

Regards JAMP
NZX: FTX MCH MVN PPG RBD SAN SKX SPE SPN VTX
Unlisted: BRK

Halebop
12-04-2005, 08:58 PM
Here's some anecdotal data typifying a commodity company of average credentials...

A major carpet retailer somewhere in a major new Zealand carpet market deals with a major mass market housing contruction company. They have an existing arrangement and sell mostly (but not only) Feltex carpets to the builder.

Feltex's Commercial rep approaches the builder directly and says - "Hey, we'll sell you our carpets and if you promise to only deal with us we'll supply at $X per metre cheaper than wholesale" (i.e. $X cheaper than what the carpet retailer gets it at).

The builder naturally says yes - not only are they getting it $X cheaper than wholesale they are not paying any retail margin either.

Naturally though how does the retailer respond? Whenever they come into contact with the builder's cutomers they undermine the quality perception of Feltex carpets and try to sell alternate brands to get the business.

End Result:
Feltex earns $X less per metre than if they kept the original arrangement intact.
Their own sales channel (the retailer) bad mouths their product in order to keep custom "inhouse".
The commercial rep earns higher bonuses for winning all this "extra" business.

* "X" dollars is a fairly specific amount and may incriminate the person who related this to me if divulged but it represents a substantial percentage saving.

Cooper
12-04-2005, 09:51 PM
quote:Originally posted by Halebop

Here's some anecdotal data typifying a commodity company of average credentials...

A major carpet retailer somewhere in a major new Zealand carpet market deals with a major mass market housing contruction company. They have an existing arrangement and sell mostly (but not only) Feltex carpets to the builder.

Feltex's Commercial rep approaches the builder directly and says - "Hey, we'll sell you our carpets and if you promise to only deal with us we'll supply at $X per metre cheaper than wholesale" (i.e. $X cheaper than what the carpet retailer gets it at).

The builder naturally says yes - not only are they getting it $X cheaper than wholesale they are not paying any retail margin either.

Naturally though how does the retailer respond? Whenever they come into contact with the builder's cutomers they undermine the quality perception of Feltex carpets and try to sell alternate brands to get the business.

End Result:
Feltex earns $X less per metre than if they kept the original arrangement intact.
Their own sales channel (the retailer) bad mouths their product in order to keep custom "inhouse".
The commercial rep earns higher bonuses for winning all this "extra" business.

* "X" dollars is a fairly specific amount and may incriminate the person who related this to me if divulged but it represents a substantial percentage saving.


Not bright. Pretty bloody stupid actually.

winner69
13-04-2005, 05:59 AM
All those pretty pictures on the FTX website showing huge areas of Feltex carpet in prominent buildings look good ... bet wholesalers did not get a look in with those sales either

winner69
13-04-2005, 06:03 AM
No matter what we all think all will be revealed tomorrow.

The tea lady says some of the charts on the board room table look pretty good ... future prospects look good

And even though the finance tried to cover it up she's pretty sure she saw earnings for 2006 of $21M

Been working late nights (and to show the true mettle of the guys Pizza Hut doing OK) though the cleaning lady says

kiwikauri
13-04-2005, 11:39 AM
Quarterly report summarising trading performance or financial position.
Released 13 Apr 2005 at 12:25:09 PM
Headline FELTEX - 3Q RESULTS FOR THE QUARTER ENDED MARCH 2005

Feltex Carpets Limited - Third Quarter Report - March 2005

Dear Shareholders

After a strong first half to the financial year, Feltex experienced a difficult third quarter. The net deficit after tax for the three months ended March 2005 was $888,000, compared with a net surplus after tax of $2.4 million in the third quarter of the previous corresponding period.

EBITDA was $3.4 million, down 60.5%, reflecting a much softer market than anticipated by the Company, as well as other significant issues described below.

The combination of a number of significant issues adversely affected the Company during the quarter, and resulted in a rapid deterioration in sales and margin performance. These include:

- Increasing imports and aggressive competition in Australia that put pressure on the average selling price for carpets and restricted Feltex’s ability to pass on higher synthetic raw material costs;

- Low traffic through several key Australian retailers resulting in their inability to achieve quarterly sales targets;

- The drop in Australian consumer sentiment published in March reflecting the biggest percentage fall recorded in the 30 year history of the survey;

- An increase in Australian interest rates in the early part of March; and

- A delay to commercial contracts due to a shortage of skilled labour.

In addition to the market conditions described above, the Company incurred additional expenditure of approximately $2 million above the prior corresponding quarter in supporting future sales and promoting its premium brands. These include:

- An increase in marketing costs, particularly television advertising; and

- An increase in the cost of sampling and a build in inventory levels as the Company prepared new residential ranges for release.

During the quarter, the translation impact of the stronger New Zealand dollar on the Group’s Australian sales negatively impacted reported revenue by $2.0 million and EBITDA by $54,000.


Earnings Guidance Issued on 1 April 2005

On 1 April 2005, the Company issued earnings guidance that significantly revised the outlook for the remainder of the financial year. This earnings guidance was issued relatively soon after the release on 23 February 2005 of the interim report for the six months ended December 2004, where the Company indicated that the EBITDA and profit projections for the 2005 financial year remained achievable.

Subsequent to the release of the interim results, the following significant and material information became available to the Company during March 2005:

Developments Between the Interim Report and 1 April 2005

- Sales Performance

January’s sales and financial performance were available to the Company at the time of the release of the interim report and were below expectations. February sales also came in below expectations. It is not uncommon for one or two months of sales or earnings to vary from expectations.

Feltex has a programme of promotional incentives that offer retailers rebates if they meet their quarterly sales targets. In the past, our sales have increased considerably in the last part of the quarter as retailers seek to benefit from this programme. The Company anticipated that this would be the case in March and that the slow start to the quarter would be sufficiently offset by higher sales in March and by the expected performance in the fourth quarter.

Towards the end of March, our key residential retailers advised us of continued low store traffic. The anticipated increase in sales associated with the quarterly incentive programme did not materialise, which indicated to the Company that the slow sales in the beginning of the quarter were attributable to an ongoing softening in the carpet market.

- Consumer Sentiment

Consumer Sentiment has a major influence on the decision to purchase a carpet.

Snow Leopard
13-04-2005, 11:59 AM
Thats went down well with the market.
I wonder what they mean by "The Company’s dividend policy remains unchanged". There is not going to be much profit to divvy come full year, after the 6c at half-time.

winner69
13-04-2005, 12:17 PM
If they lose some more in the 4th quarter does the dividend policy say punters need to give some of the 6 cents back?

PLK
13-04-2005, 12:22 PM
maybe the payout ratio remain the same
so dont make money means no div

13-04-2005, 01:11 PM
THE KING says the big shift in AUS is back to bare timber floors they even rip up existing carpets its the current FAD tough luck FELTEX.. [^]

Cooper
13-04-2005, 01:42 PM
quote:Originally posted by PLK

maybe the payout ratio remain the same
so dont make money means no div


That's what I take it to mean, PLK... about 75%ish from memory.

So basically they're saying that both Jan and Feb were slower than expected, but they were able to pluck out a few economic indicators from which they could glean that the trend would reverse and March would be a bumper month? Yet they also increased their advertising expenditure? Sounds like they had their fingers crossed and eyes closed for March.

winner69
13-04-2005, 07:16 PM
Feltex bring out all the quotes about the sad state of the market.

I had to laugh when i saw these 2 quotes from a recent BNZ Confidence Survey (on the BNZ website) which quotes market participants
April 6th

Floor covering
Continuing to boom in both residential and commercial sectors in our area (Canterbury) No sign of slowdown. A very exciting year ahead with forward prebooked workloads. Skilled staff shortage an ongoing problem.

and March 23

Flooring
Flooring (Residential & Commercial including installation) is very buoyant, handicapped by lack of installation labour. Turnover and margin are both extremely high, much higher than usual - long may it continue


Presume these guys do a bit of carpet stuff.

Both point out the shortage of contractors but the views of Feltex and these market participants are poles apart

Wonder what is going on

Westie
13-04-2005, 10:59 PM
quote:Wonder what is going on


quote:ENIGMA: Winner remember my original post why did the original owners want to sell?

Enigma was on the money from the start. I don't think anything is going on for Feltex that hasn't been going on for quite a number of years. The only thing that suprised me was that they acheived any of their forecasts at all.

A family member was thinking about subscribing to the bond issue back in 03(?) so I checked out the prospectus. After looking at the actual financials for 01 & 02 I suggested they steer well clear. Sales falling, losses widening, balance sheet was weak, free cashflow almost non-existant. I may be wrong but it also looked like they injected new equity into the business in 02 because the losses were so large. I had my doubts they could service the bonds for an extended period.

IMHO it looked like the owners were trying to time the market to get out when a positive economic climate would return an otherwise poor business to some semblance of profitability. With further economic slowdown on the horizon, I'll be interested to see if there is a return to results like 01/02. Sales are lower now than they were back then and margins are much higher than usual according to those in the flooring industry as per Winners post above.

winner69
14-04-2005, 06:34 AM
All that was new in that announcement was that FTX lost $888,000 in the quarter.

So they will still be making $15-16M for the full year ... interesting

Made $12.2M in first half year (average $6.1M per quarter) .... lost $0.9M in third quarter ... so 9 months NPAT is $11.3M ... make $16M for the year .... 4th quarter profit forecast has to be $4.7M

But they have convinced me the market is stuffed ... so how can they make almost as much in the 4th quarter as they made in the 1st and 2nd quarters ........ WHAT A DRAMATIC TURNAROUND THIS IS

Never mind alls well ... investors understand ... probably are sympathetic ... and will back in the market in droves pushing up the shareprice

winner69
14-04-2005, 06:50 AM
Making excuses usually increases the need for more down the track (ask THL etc)

Feltex yesterday said that .... expected high level of Australian Consumer Sentiment would translate to buoyant sales for the remainder of the year.

But on On 9 March 2005, the March Consumer Sentiment figures were released. The announcement stated: “The Westpac Melbourne Institute [survey] of Consumer Sentiment fell by 16.6% from 122.8 in February to 102.4 in March. Westpac’s Global Head of Economics, Bill Evans commented, ‘This is the biggest percentage fall ever recorded in the history of the survey’.”

Bugger - the Index raised only slightly in April to 104 (the second lowest level for 2 years).

So the reasons for one of the main excuses for losing money in the March quarter still exists ... and a dramatic turnaround is underway

Cooper
14-04-2005, 07:35 AM
Exactly winner. I can't see how they can see consumer confidence declining, sales declining, market share and margin declining, and yet still believe they will be able to meet their forecasts. Either they know something I don't or they are just belted in and hoping for a miracle.

It begs the question why they wouldn't err on the side of caution and lower their forecasts. Surely the short term pain would be better than the market losing even more confidence.

That said, IF they can come through with their forecasts then it would be definitely worth looking to buy IMO.

The Doctor
14-04-2005, 08:54 AM
a 'flat chested' IPO stripped down to reveal a 'padded bra'!

Bud Fox
14-04-2005, 09:41 AM
FTX is in free-fall now.

Anyone brave enough to pick a 'floor'?

Bud Fox
2002 NZ Stock Guru Champion

Bling_Bling
14-04-2005, 09:44 AM
What a total DOG ! Wouldnt touch it. May even go belly up with such high debt. How are they going to service the huge debt?

winner69
14-04-2005, 10:50 AM
Feltex love quoting from the HIA press releases

Heres one they didn't use

(HIA April 1st)
.... said that while there was no housing crash looming, the industry was in for a weaker couple of years.

and ... Renovation activity looks to have peaked and is forecast to fall by around 6 per cent over 2004/05 – 2006/07.


Whoops - stole Feltex's thunder for the next downgrade

winner69
14-04-2005, 11:23 AM
FELTEX SAID Towards the end of March, our key residential retailers advised us of continued low store traffic. The anticipated increase in sales associated with the quarterly incentive programme did not materialise, which indicated to the Company that the slow sales in the beginning of the quarter were attributable to an ongoing softening in the carpet market.


See from the Stats NZ release today Furniture and Flooring retail sales for Feb were 13% up last year - following January's 5% increase.

Does cover both furniture and flooring .... so furniture sales must be booming booming booming if flooring sales are down ... yeah right

Is their just some small improbable chance that Feltex are losing market share? surely not for such an iconic NZ brand

Halebop
14-04-2005, 11:26 AM
Hmmm. The problems could always be stemming from Australia more than New Zealand as well.

Cooper
14-04-2005, 12:58 PM
That's what Forbarr think Halebop...

Speaking of whom, Forbarr have reduced their valuation from 153 to 134, and from accumulate to hold...
...et tu, Brute? Then fall, Feltex...

Bling_Bling
14-04-2005, 01:27 PM
How did they get a valuation of $1.34? Can you post up the research or is there a site we can read the report?

Cooper
14-04-2005, 01:46 PM
Not sure I'm supposed to pass it on, Bling... Maybe you could get in touch with ForBarr?

Bling_Bling
14-04-2005, 02:42 PM
I am not a client of Forbar. I am usually a value investor and look to put money into stocks that have been hammered by downgrades. I am having trouble convincing myself FTX is of any value at all at, even at this level. Feeling there is more downside and bad news for FTX.

Cooper
14-04-2005, 03:12 PM
So do I. I don't agree with Forbarr's valuation, considering it too optimistic, which provides even more reason to not post it. Has dropped to 77 cents today...

Lizard
14-04-2005, 04:08 PM
In my experience, brokers hardly ever turn their forecasts around overnight. Usually their valuations drift slowly down or up (more often following rather than leading market sentiment). DCF valuations are amazingly susceptible to sentiment.

As an associate of the flooring industry, I would say that FTX is a stock I never considered investing in. As an investor, one look at FTX's appalling history would convince me that the only safe time to invest is at the start of a cyclical construction upturn, not the tail end.

Westie
14-04-2005, 04:55 PM
quote:I am usually a value investor and look to put money into stocks that have been hammered by downgrades. I am having trouble convincing myself FTX is of any value at all at, even at this level

I'm not normally so bearish on a company, but as one with a value inclination myself, I'd want to buy FTX at a much lower sp to compensate for the risk, if I wanted to hold FTX at all. The sticking point for me is the debt. Why hold a company with such a poor balance sheet & clouded outlook?


quote:But they have convinced me the market is stuffed ... so how can they make almost as much in the 4th quarter as they made in the 1st and 2nd quarters ........ WHAT A DRAMATIC TURNAROUND THIS IS


Winner69 is asking the right questions, how credible is management's take on the situation? If I can't understand the business situation from their perspective, then i'm going to rely solely on the financial statements. They are *usually* harder to fudge.

So what do they show? Headline profit for 6 months to Dec 04 but negative operating cashflow of $300k. FTX had to borrow $20m to pay dividend & finance cap ex, increasing the debt load & the risk for shareholders. In fact, debt exceeded shareholders equity at Dec 04.
Then there's the story for the latest quarter....
Even with the projected turnaround for the 4th quarter, what will their cashflow situation be like? Any more cap ex? Dividends? That may necessitate more borrowing.......

winner69
14-04-2005, 07:16 PM
Good points Westie

During the March quarter inventories increased by $7.5M and borrowings as at March has increased another $5M and is now $111M

For the March quarter EBITDA was reported as $3.4M and the interest expense at $2.3M ... play around with the increase in inventories .... prepayments went up ... and add some capex .... and that precious cashflow couldn't have been too flash for quarter.

maybe just a bad quarter and not indicative of the future .... but what they have said would make you think that many more hurdles to overcome yet.

winner69
16-04-2005, 11:45 AM
WOW .... the comments of a company that really has its finger on the pulse ... really understands the drivers of it profitability .... a company you can have continued confidence in

"Clearly things were turning very quickly so we said, ‘We better do a complete rehash of the projections’."

ANOTHER REHASH AROUND THE CORNER? OF COURSE THERE IS

From todays Herald
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10120769

winner69
16-04-2005, 11:54 AM
quote:Originally posted by Cooper

So do I. I don't agree with Forbarr's valuation, considering it too optimistic, which provides even more reason to not post it. Has dropped to 77 cents today...

Isn't it nice to know that the 'shocked' (on hearing of the downgrade) Forbar head honcho Mr Paviour-Smith is concerned abour his clients who bought $90 million (estimate)worth of Feltex shares in the IPO.

Quote " ... and it’s still of great concern to us that our clients who are shareholders in Feltex have experienced this loss,"

Yeah right on mate ... huge fat fees to the promotors ... the vendors got more than they should have (good on them) and Paviour-Smith is concerned

Halebop
16-04-2005, 03:07 PM
Of course he's concerned. I would be to with $600m+ of Vector in the offing and my clients getting inconveniently picky.

winner69
17-04-2005, 07:43 AM
Some $80M of inventories to support $300M of sales suggests there is a mountain of carpet out there somewhere

If gross margins are 50% (I don't know what they are) then FTX has has stock to cover the next 6 months sales ... hardly seems efficient ... and not good use of cash

Hope they have made the stuff the punters want ... and they buy it

Bling_Bling
17-04-2005, 01:51 PM
All I can say is, wont be long before there is a huge bargain SALE at FTX for carpet buyers. Maybe time to change my carpets in the house.

winner69
17-04-2005, 07:29 PM
The Altman-z score is often a good guide to the well being of any company (thats the polite language because it is generally a test for impending insolvency)

Lower the score, the higher the odds of bankruptcy. Companies with scores above 3 are considered to be healthy, scores in between 1.8 and 3 lie in a grey area, scores less than 1.8 and bankruptcy looms.

Just done this on FTX - they have a score of 2.2 which is the lower end of the 'grey area'. Of concern is that the score is worse than it was a year ago ... not surprising when you consider less sales, higher debt, higher working capital, declining margins etc.

The score not down to the 1.8 mark where bankruptcy looms but heading that way unless performance improves dramatically.

For you doubters out there - The Altman-z score for ION was 1.8 (on reported financials as well) when they went into administration ... and wasn't their share price cheap then

winner69
17-04-2005, 07:53 PM
With the previous post in mind even 75 cents a share looks expensive

Book value is 61 cents ... NTA 42 cents

So at 75 cents the market is still expecting FTX managament to add considerable value well into the future ... and at the moment it ain't doing that

winner69
19-04-2005, 08:38 AM
Lack of postings as the price continues to decline suggests everybody is out.

If still thinking if cheap what is happening is not new growund for Feltex

From the Feltex 2002 Annual Report (signed by Magill) (quote)" ..... continued to feel the impact of the extraordinary decline in housing construction, renovation and commercial building in Australia, that followed the 'boom' (GST and Olympics etc). The floor covering industry is one of the last to feel the effects of a significant in building works ....."

That year Feltex EBIT was a miserly $1.8M and NPAT was a massive $18.5M LOSS (did have a pretty hefty interest bill back then)

You have to be worried again this time around as well, esp if the flooring industry is one of the last to suffer ... hasn't the decline just started

Feltex's is a volume driven company with a high fixed cost base. As such profits are really under pressure if volumes and margins decline.

I'd still be worried about their performance over the next year or so

Westie
19-04-2005, 01:21 PM
quote:That year Feltex EBIT was a miserly $1.8M and NPAT was a massive $18.5M LOSS (did have a pretty hefty interest bill back then)


The only reason why they don't have the same interest bill now is due to the injection of $60m equity at the IPO. Since then (approx 1.5yrs) they've managed to increase borrowings by $20m, 1/3rd of the amount they initially reduced borrowings by. I recall HWE had a lot of trouble with their covenants (as did TRH) when they got close to insolvency. I wonder how FTX's bankers are feeling at the mo? Will be interesting to see what happens come full year results time.

Bling_Bling
19-04-2005, 03:46 PM
Why is this dog going up? Must be short covering.

Enumerate
19-04-2005, 04:19 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

Just done this on FTX - they have a score of 2.2 which is the lower end of the 'grey area'. Of concern is that the score is worse than it was a year ago ... not surprising when you consider less sales, higher debt, higher working capital, declining margins etc.


Looked it up on the Internet - my site had the following:


quote:Z-SCORE BETWEEN 1.8 and 2.7 - Good chances of the company going bankrupt within 2 years of operations from the date of financial figures given.

winner69
20-04-2005, 06:14 AM
So one of Sams's great strengths is "... understanding the market and understanding the customers" (Quote the chairman)

Yeah right - then why was Sam so surprised when the market turned turtle so quickly

Maybe Africa was the best place for him post announcement
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10121356

Westie
20-04-2005, 08:47 AM
quote:So one of Sams's great strengths is "... understanding the market and understanding the customers" (Quote the chairman)

Looking at FTX's performance prior to the IPO & since then, you could argue that whatever Sam's strengths are, the creation of business/shareholder value isn't one of them.

However, it has been said that when a good manager meets a bad business, you can be guaranteed that over the long run the business' economics will win out. Who knows, maybe Magill is a victim?

winner69
20-04-2005, 07:25 PM
Give sam his due, even the head honcho at Carters 'had been surprised at the extent of a slowdown in the Australian housing market'

But Sam tells us that the impact on the flooring industry cames a bit later than other building trades

Do i sense another profit warning coming

Halebop
20-04-2005, 10:09 PM
I'm not sure W69 but you'd be a brave man to back FTX even at these prices.

Snow Leopard
26-04-2005, 08:59 AM
quote:
FTX
26/04/2005
DRP

REL: 0930 HRS Feltex Carpets Limited

DRP: FTX: FELTEX DIVIDEND REINVESTMENT PLAN

FELTEX CARPETS LIMITED

DIVIDEND REINVESTMENT PLAN - APRIL 2005

Shareholder participation in the Feltex Carpets Limited Dividend Reinvestment
Plan resulted in Shareholders electing to reinvest dividends totally
$493,973.38.

609,539 Feltex Shares were acquired for cash on-market at an average share
price of $0.8038 over the period Wednesday 6 April 2005 to Friday 22 April
2005.

The acquisitions have been made in accordance with the terms of the Dividend
Reinvestment Plan dated 22 February 2005. All Shares acquired are ordinary
shares (ISIN Number NZFTXE0006S5). Shares acquired will be transferred to
Shareholders who have elected to participate in the Dividend Reinvestment
Plan in accordance with the terms of the Plan. The Shares are not held as
treasury stock by the Company.

ENDS
End CA:00114403 For:FTX Type:DRP Time:2005-04-26:09:31:02


Current SP $0.73, poor people

limegreen
26-04-2005, 09:16 AM
And you have to worry about how much of a floor that has formed under the share-price.... now that that buyer is out of the market, where to from here??:(

Lizard
26-04-2005, 10:01 AM
quote:Originally posted by limegreen

And you have to worry about how much of a floor that has formed under the share-price.... now that that buyer is out of the market, where to from here??:(


Yep. Key problem with Feltex - not laying on enough floors...;)

winner69
26-04-2005, 10:27 AM
At least they had the courage to send out the bad news before the div reinvestment scheme took place.

Imagine if they had paid 170 odd for the shares to be handed out as part of the reinvestment scheme ... that would have hurt

On the bright side these punters have twice as many shares as they would have had a few weeks ago

winner69
26-04-2005, 08:18 PM
Well well well ... a close below 70

Must be getting nesr the bottom now ... even if there is more bad news on the horizon it won't sink to the depths of despair in one go ... there will be a resurgence soon ... as the bargain hunters come out of the woodwork

26-04-2005, 08:34 PM
Winner 69 at what price would this be a bargain