FBU - Fletcher Building [Archive] - Page 6

Balance

18-02-2021, 09:15 AM

Jeez BusinessDesk report some analysts on the company's conference call said Fletcher will "struggle" to get to the bottom of what is a particularly wide range (full year guidance)

Even use phrases like ‘sizzle than frizzle’

Oh well, guru analysts and commentators are a bit like that and suppose they have some short term influence but at the end of the day it’s how Fletcher’s perform that will drive the share price

Expect a profit upgrade in a few months methinks

Same analysts who were busy recommending against FBU in the last 2 years, I wonder.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/109082/strong-housing-market-has-helped-propel-fletcher-buildings-nz-residential

The Residential and Development division reported gross revenue of $356 million, which was $132 million or 59% higher than the prior period.
And there's more of the same expected in the second half.

"Demand for new houses in New Zealand is expected to remain robust," the company said.
It said in the first half the market environment for housing sales "remained positive, with good levels of demand and supportive pricing in both Auckland and Christchurch".

Checkmate

18-02-2021, 05:25 PM

Very nice results, should prove the haters wrong!
wonder if they will resume buybacks!?
Wow pretty disappointed to get a negative reputation on such a harmless comment...”quite disgusting choice of words to label other posters ...”
I can only say this: That comment should not upset anyone unless they were called a hater and mentioned specifically.. that comment was made in context of the general negativity about Fletcher Building over the years and I’m really not sure how someone can get that upset about it. Sorry if you were offended by a pretty harmless word that wasn’t directed at you.

Maybe my post didn’t add a lot of value to the thread, but it wasn’t directed at any posters on this thread.
Just wanted to voice my opinion.

winner69

18-02-2021, 07:30 PM

Wow pretty disappointed to get a negative reputation on such a harmless comment...”quite disgusting choice of words to label other posters ...”
I can only say this: That comment should not upset anyone unless they were called a hater and mentioned specifically.. that comment was made in context of the general negativity about Fletcher Building over the years and I’m really not sure how someone can get that upset about it. Sorry if you were offended by a pretty harmless word that wasn’t directed at you.

Maybe my post didn’t add a lot of value to the thread, but it wasn’t directed at any posters on this thread.
Just wanted to voice my opinion.

Bit rough that was mate

Cheers from a reformed hater - FBU going well now, and will be good for a another year or two.

BlackPeter

19-02-2021, 10:27 AM

Wow pretty disappointed to get a negative reputation on such a harmless comment...”quite disgusting choice of words to label other posters ...”
I can only say this: That comment should not upset anyone unless they were called a hater and mentioned specifically.. that comment was made in context of the general negativity about Fletcher Building over the years and I’m really not sure how someone can get that upset about it. Sorry if you were offended by a pretty harmless word that wasn’t directed at you.

Maybe my post didn’t add a lot of value to the thread, but it wasn’t directed at any posters on this thread.
Just wanted to voice my opinion.

I am sure there would have been better ways to voice your opinion other than calling an unspecified number of posters "haters", just because you disagreed with their views on the company - wouldn't there?

One of the main rules in using any forum is to hit the ball, not the player.

Labelling the other team as "haters" is a disgusting way to behave.

RTM

19-02-2021, 10:43 AM

Wow pretty disappointed to get a negative reputation on such a harmless comment...”quite disgusting choice of words to label other posters ...”
I can only say this: That comment should not upset anyone unless they were called a hater and mentioned specifically.. that comment was made in context of the general negativity about Fletcher Building over the years and I’m really not sure how someone can get that upset about it. Sorry if you were offended by a pretty harmless word that wasn’t directed at you.

Maybe my post didn’t add a lot of value to the thread, but it wasn’t directed at any posters on this thread.
Just wanted to voice my opinion.

I'm agree with you Checkmate. Over the top reaction. Suggest you must have hit a raw nerve with someone.

Soolaimon

19-02-2021, 11:16 AM

Wow pretty disappointed to get a negative reputation on such a harmless comment...”quite disgusting choice of words to label other posters ...”
I can only say this: That comment should not upset anyone unless they were called a hater and mentioned specifically.. that comment was made in context of the general negativity about Fletcher Building over the years and I’m really not sure how someone can get that upset about it. Sorry if you were offended by a pretty harmless word that wasn’t directed at you.

Maybe my post didn’t add a lot of value to the thread, but it wasn’t directed at any posters on this thread.
Just wanted to voice my opinion.

I agree with you Checkmate lot's of sensitive people out there these days. I was a FBU hater for a while back - in for another dose now though.

Balance

19-02-2021, 12:40 PM

I am sure there would have been better ways to voice your opinion other than calling an unspecified number of posters "haters", just because you disagreed with their views on the company - wouldn't there?

One of the main rules in using any forum is to hit the ball, not the player.

Labelling the other team as "haters" is a disgusting way to behave.

Not at all - I am 100% behind Checkmate.

There is no other way to describe any poster who describe a company as 'forever and will always be a dog' when it has not been the case.

BlackPeter

19-02-2021, 01:19 PM

Not at all - I am 100% behind Checkmate.

There is no other way to describe any poster who describe a company as 'forever and will always be a dog' when it has not been the case.

I do agree that the description of the company you are citing (if it is a correct citation - I don't remember it) does not sound particularly mature. Clearly there have been highlights in FBU's past, and obviously - nobody can predict the future.

However - instead of labeling people as "haters" it clearly would have been better to discuss the statement you cited (if this was indeed the cause of the hater statement.

Play the ball, not the player ...

sb9

23-02-2021, 03:13 PM

Looks someone must've just realised its the last day to be in to collect 12c divvy.

sb9

04-03-2021, 02:36 PM

Nice spread of volume over past few days with new price range of 6.60+ and divvy has come and gone in between.

Checkmate

04-03-2021, 03:42 PM

Nice spread of volume over past few days with new price range of 6.60+ and divvy has come and gone in between. Good to see! It's holding up well.

Balance

10-03-2021, 03:48 PM

Good to see! It's holding up well.

Not only holding up well but powering on - $6.81 now.

So it has put on 100% since the low point when Blackrock sold out the last of its substantial shareholding at $3.29 last year.

Checkmate

10-03-2021, 03:53 PM

Not only holding up well but powering on - $6.81 now.

So it has put on 100% since the low point when Blackrock sold out the last of its substantial shareholding at $3.29 last year.

Oath!

Jeez, wouldn't trust BlackRock with my money if they are pulling maneuvers like that, selling out of pure value when it's had a rough (temporary) few years.. Ha!

sb9

12-03-2021, 08:22 AM

Oath!

Jeez, wouldn't trust BlackRock with my money if they are pulling maneuvers like that, selling out of pure value when it's had a rough (temporary) few years.. Ha!

Right isn't it, sometimes those big boys aren't necessarily brightest of the pack.

Nearly a bagger for me in less than 6 months, who would've thought this boring old stock could perform so well in these trying times :t_up:

Checkmate

12-03-2021, 01:42 PM

Markets gonna push us over the $7 mark soon.. :t_up:

sb9

12-03-2021, 04:19 PM

BOOM...full house $7....:D

Checkmate

19-03-2021, 03:57 PM

Does anyone here think that Fletcher will resume share buybacks any time soon? Or still under too much pressure to meet covenants and pay a dividend?

Greekwatchdog

19-03-2021, 04:25 PM

Banking covenants look ok to me as they were allowed to pay divvie. I cant see share buy back happening anytime soon.

Habits

26-03-2021, 08:16 AM

On the rise again... up 22 cents, 3.28 percent yesterday

Balance

26-03-2021, 08:30 AM

On the rise again... up 22 cents, 3.28 percent yesterday

FBU a net beneficiary of the government’s first housing package :

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/continuous-disclosure-could-westpac-nz-move-be-followed-by-other-banks/SA5JBI5IX7XDGC4IHDHRE6X3TI/
Paywalled

Small win for Fletcher

On the flipside, they estimate Fletcher Building could see a small boost to its earnings through higher demand for new-build houses.

New-build investors may still be allowed to deduct mortgage interest.

Habits

26-03-2021, 08:39 AM

FBU a net beneficiary of the government’s first housing package :

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/continuous-disclosure-could-westpac-nz-move-be-followed-by-other-banks/SA5JBI5IX7XDGC4IHDHRE6X3TI/
Paywalled

Small win for Fletcher

On the flipside, they estimate Fletcher Building could see a small boost to its earnings through higher demand for new-build houses.

New-build investors may still be allowed to deduct mortgage interest.

The govt are still consulting about treatment of new builds... are they for real or is this a tactic to make them look like they are flexible. The 5 year BL seems pretty definite to stay but interest deductions simply a possibility. Property investors will not bother if just the BL only

Habits

26-03-2021, 07:11 PM

Closed up 3c to $6.95.... we're knock, knock, knocking on sevens door.

Enjoy this cameo from Bob: "Bob Dylan- Knockin' on Heaven's Door "Original"" on YouTube
https://youtu.be/rnKbImRPhTE

winner69

27-03-2021, 08:05 AM

Apparently Carter Holt running short of timber and have stopped supplying Bunnings, Mitre 10 and ITM

But Placemakers good customer and still getting timber

That’s good

Greekwatchdog

27-03-2021, 08:09 AM

I can confirm there are supply chain issues for Placemakers owned businesses as well. They are not immune.

Habits

27-03-2021, 03:27 PM

Housing: Carter Holt Harvey cuts timber supplies to Mitre 10, Bunnings, ITM
Housing: Carter Holt Harvey cuts timber supplies to Mitre 10, Bunnings, ITM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12431516

They say "However, Carter Holt Harvey (CHH) had reportedly maintained its supply relationships with its biggest clients - Placemakers and Carter Building Supplies "

Greekwatchdog

27-03-2021, 03:38 PM

Sounds good doesn't it? but they get other wood products elsewhere. Head winds coming up on supply chain. Bloody headaches

Habits

28-03-2021, 09:31 AM

Sounds good doesn't it? but they get other wood products elsewhere. Head winds coming up on supply chain. Bloody headaches

Now that we're all aware and primed, next comes the 'inevitable' price rises... so much for the affordable housing goal/pipe dream.

Balance

28-03-2021, 09:34 AM

Now that we're all aware and primed, next comes the 'inevitable' price rises... so much for the affordable housing goal/pipe dream.

Contact in the industry tells me to expect 10% to 15% increase in May as increase in China demand has already pushed up export prices hugely.

winner69

28-03-2021, 09:53 AM

Balance

28-03-2021, 10:18 AM

Wasn’t that long ago we were bemoaning collapsing log prices.

Mountains of logs sitting on the wharves and processing mills closing and hundreds out of jobs. (Napier Port IPO going to fail because of this blah blah)

Not very good at managing commodity cycles and thinking long term in NZ are we?

Not very good

Agree wholeheartedly, W69.

Lack of long term thinking is why almost all of private NZ forestry plantations are owned by foreign interests.

One of my forestry contacts (huge overseas investor) used to lament how NZers cut down plantation trees, ship it as logs and then, cannot be bothered to replant given the 20 to 30 years investment horizon.

BTW - FBU is now majority owned by Australian institutions with NZ investors making up less than 30% of its share register. What an indictment on short term thinking.

Greekwatchdog

28-03-2021, 10:21 AM

Covid screwed the market. So few suppliers world wide at the mo. China taking our logs and setting the price in NZ by doing so. I have 2 x 5% increases coming over the next 2 quarters. Can't recall last time I saw a decrease. Hopefully/maybe we will see a normal supply chain start this time next year. I did read the other day that Russia is stopping exporting so it can localize their own market and create more businesses.

Habits

28-03-2021, 10:33 AM

Agree wholeheartedly, W69.

Lack of long term thinking is why almost all of private NZ forestry plantations are owned by foreign interests.

One of my forestry contacts (huge overseas investor) used to lament how NZers cut down plantation trees, ship it as logs and then, cannot be bothered to replant given the 20 to 30 years investment horizon.

BTW - FBU is now majority owned by Australian institutions with NZ investors making up less than 30% of its share register. What an indictment on short term thinking.

I think it all started with sir rob offering election bribes and canning the retirement savings. We cant turn back the clock on that but we would have had a massive fund to buy banks and longterm forestry blocks. I also wonder at the logic of the nz super fund that invests its money offshore to 'diversify' when there are needs and opportunites here.

Greekwatchdog

28-03-2021, 09:06 PM

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/warning-cost-of-timber-may-rise-as-major-supplier-halts-local-sales/WWHYAGXE7OL5K5AXPGPSL3VKOA/

Habits

29-03-2021, 12:26 PM

705 and powering on. Higher profits through rising materials prices perhaps

Habits

29-03-2021, 01:27 PM

Just realised at less than 5 percent of portfolio I dont have enough of these... darn

Balance

29-03-2021, 01:31 PM

Just realised at less than 5 percent of portfolio I dont have enough of these... darn

All the opportunity in the world last year to buy as much as you wanted at under $3.50!

Habits

29-03-2021, 02:04 PM

All the opportunity in the world last year to buy as much as you wanted at under $3.50!

Yes I did get a truckload then, what about yourself. I remember BlackPeter giving me the hex for it.

RTM

29-03-2021, 02:05 PM

Just realised at less than 5 percent of portfolio I dont have enough of these... darn

So easy looking back, isn't it.
Same....2.5% if portfolio.Better than nothing.

Balance

29-03-2021, 02:09 PM

Yes I did get a truckload then, what about yourself. I remember BlackPeter giving me the hex for it.

I went long, very long and as the sp took a while to take off again, I reminded myself that the best gains are always made from stocks 'climbing up a wall of worries".

winner69

29-03-2021, 02:09 PM

Yes I did get a truckload then, what about yourself. I remember BlackPeter giving me the hex for it.

BlackPeter's models and his love of 5 and 10 year CAGRs often paint the wrong picture - you need to think objectively about the future sometimes.

Somebody on here (not Balance) pleaded a great case about Fletchers future post getting the house in order - and made me forget the past and what a dinosaur (beagles term besides various types of dog) they were and think objectively about the future. Whoever it was I owe you a beer or two

BlackPeter

29-03-2021, 02:59 PM

BlackPeter's models and his love of 5 and 10 year CAGRs often paint the wrong picture - you need to think objectively about the future sometimes.

Nothing wrong with the picture if you want to determine the value based on earnings and growth, assuming nothing unexpected happens. Obviously difficult to determine the future without being omniscient (which mortals tend not to be).

I didn't manage yet to fault Ben Grahams wisdom "nobody can predict future share prices". It sounds like some people on this thread think they can, but I think they might be wrong :p;

clearasmud

29-03-2021, 07:13 PM

Except Balance you were talking this up when it was at 4 dollars before it dropped to 3 dollars.
Still worked out good.

Balance

29-03-2021, 07:49 PM

Except Balance you were talking this up when it was at 4 dollars before it dropped to 3 dollars.
Still worked out good.

Freely admitted that I had to remind myself that some stocks perform when they ‘climb up on a wall of worries’!

And there were plenty of disparaging comments at that time which I welcomed as all views can be useful - up to each individual to decide.

Balance

29-03-2021, 09:02 PM

As posted by me in May 2020 when things looked dark and there were plenty of negative postings.

All good!

Relax guys! Life is good and peachy! Why the aggro?

Read what have been written and as long as you get the big picture right, you are already 75% of the way to getting your strategy right.

Don’t sweat the small stuff. 😊

Habits

30-03-2021, 07:02 AM

Freely admitted that I had to remind myself that some stocks perform when they ‘climb up on a wall of worries’!

And there were plenty of disparaging comments at that time which I welcomed as all views can be useful - up to each individual to decide.

Noted... Can I just ask whether there are any or many other nz stocks right now that you consider are truly in that recovery phase and 'climbing the wall' .... if so, there is no need to identify them, I am just interested to know for the medium term

Rawz

30-03-2021, 09:34 AM

Balance

30-03-2021, 09:38 AM

Noted... Can I just ask whether there are any or many other nz stocks right now that you consider are truly in that recovery phase and 'climbing the wall' .... if so, there is no need to identify them, I am just interested to know for the medium term

Becoming harder but yes, like when FBU was out of favor and subjected to extreme selling pressure, there are several stocks in the recovery phase on the NZX.

Watch also the indexing driven selldown from time to time - excellent opportunity to invest in said stocks.

LaserEyeKiwi

30-03-2021, 10:57 AM

Noted... Can I just ask whether there are any or many other nz stocks right now that you consider are truly in that recovery phase and 'climbing the wall' .... if so, there is no need to identify them, I am just interested to know for the medium term

NZX:MCK is my preferred nominee for this. Given its very large majority ownership of CDL, its non-CDL assets are being valued at a mammoth discount despite the large NTA value (current share price of $2.31c vs NTA of $4.70 per share)

Total MCK market cap (MCK + MCKPA) = ~$360m
MCK 66% ownership share of CDL = ~$202m

Balance

30-03-2021, 12:56 PM

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124694868/fletcher-building-to-convert-tyres-into-cement-at-whangrei-plant

Tyres into cement at FBU’s Whangarei cement plant.

Good stuff!

winner69

31-03-2021, 11:41 AM

I take it Fletcher’s will do OK out of the impending light rail project in Auckland - the one they going to announce today ...keeping Labour’s promise

Waltzing

31-03-2021, 02:48 PM

RTM

31-03-2021, 02:52 PM

Bit miffed we did not take a PUNT in november... always been a good trade back to 2008.

Great chart though as an example to see what a boom in housing and a city that is expanding on the pacific rim, can do to the stock.

Lets hope they can make money this time. Or maybe we should consider it a trade.....hmmmm...up > 100%....

Waltzing

31-03-2021, 03:57 PM

example of a chart leaping up past its pre event sell off... dont see that to often.

sb9

31-03-2021, 04:03 PM

Lets hope they can make money this time. Or maybe we should consider it a trade.....hmmmm...up > 100%....

Likewise, can't believe I'm up over a bagger on this in less than 6months plus recent divvy on top of that. Quickest bagger and never thought FBU could deliver that.

Balance

31-03-2021, 04:17 PM

Likewise, can't believe I'm up over a bagger on this in less than 6months plus recent divvy on top of that. Quickest bagger and never thought FBU could deliver that.

Perfect storm last year for FBU sp - Covid lockdowns, continuous problems from the big projects etc etc including getting kicked out of index.

So great time to invest in it as a recovery stock.

Must admit I thought it would take 2 years for the sp to double but very happy that it took less than a year.

winner69

31-03-2021, 04:18 PM

This is quite cool

Place that stuck container ship anywhere you want

https://evergiven-everywhere.glitch.me/

Greekwatchdog

06-04-2021, 12:38 PM

$7.25. Volume low..

tim23

06-04-2021, 08:16 PM

$7.25. Volume low..

640k approx traded on the NZX but 1.4 million on the ASX so nice lift on decent volume.

Baa_Baa

06-04-2021, 08:24 PM

640k approx traded on the NZX but 1.4 million on the ASX so nice lift on decent volume.

Attention to details, well done. Follow the money, it might not be on NZX

sb9

06-04-2021, 08:24 PM

640k approx traded on the NZX but 1.4 million on the ASX so nice lift on decent volume.

NZX trading is irrelevant for lot of dual listed companies, FBU in particular is driven heavily out of ASX.

sb9

06-04-2021, 08:26 PM

Attention to details, well done. Follow the money, it might not be on NZX

Quite a few companies fit that criteria amongst dual listed stocks.

Balance

06-04-2021, 08:38 PM

NZX trading is irrelevant for lot of dual listed companies, FBU in particular is driven heavily out of ASX.

Australians now own 50% of FBU vs 26% for NZers.

Checkmate

09-04-2021, 07:40 AM

Australians now own 50% of FBU vs 26% for NZers. how does that work by the way? Do the Aussies own more of the NZ shares or is there just a lot more shares listed on the ASX than the NZX?

Balance

09-04-2021, 07:53 AM

how does that work by the way? Do the Aussies own more of the NZ shares or is there just a lot more shares listed on the ASX than the NZX?

Dual listed stock - more and more of the stock now reside on ASX as 50% owned by Aussies.

You can see it in the turnover numbers (NZX vs ASX) and how FBU as a stock now blindly follows ASX lead.

Scrunch

09-04-2021, 08:15 AM

how does that work by the way? Do the Aussies own more of the NZ shares or is there just a lot more shares listed on the ASX than the NZX?

There's nothing stopping Australian's owning shares that are on the NZ register (or NZ citizens owning shares on the Australian register). It is however more convenient to own shares trading in your home currency. What will have happened over the last 10+ years is Australian insto's bought on the NZX, shunted the shares over to the Australian register and then started trading them on the ASX.

The trading location with the most volume will tend to attract more volume because large positions can be created and reduced more easily. I'd therefore guess some of the US and other overseas institutional buying is also progressively heading over the ditch.

Regardless of whether the share is traded on the NZX or ASX, its still an ordinary FBU share.

Greekwatchdog

23-04-2021, 03:35 PM

Bit of a star today

Balance

25-04-2021, 09:45 AM

Bit of a star today

Sp closed at 2 year high on Friday.

A very nice 110% return from when I bought last year.

Remember the old saying - when everyone is negative, back up your truck and load up.

BigBob

25-04-2021, 10:05 AM

Remember the old saying - when everyone is negative, back up your truck and load up.

So you're busy shovelling ATM onto your truck right now then...?

Or is it not that easy without hindsight in reality... ?

Lease

25-04-2021, 10:28 AM

So you're busy shovelling ATM onto your truck right now then...?

Or is it not that easy without hindsight in reality... ?

Haha, that's exactly I want to say.

RTM

25-04-2021, 10:32 AM

So you're busy shovelling ATM onto your truck right now then...?

Or is it not that easy without hindsight in reality... ?

Well I’m not, that’s for sure BB. I was going to add to Balances post....
“if you are sure of the company and it’s forward prospects.”

I to am very happy with my FBU investment (+125%).

I can’t see this happening for ATM...but I’ve been wrong about them quite a few times.

BlackPeter

25-04-2021, 11:10 AM

Sp closed at 2 year high on Friday.

A very nice 110% return from when I bought last year.

Remember the old saying - when everyone is negative, back up your truck and load up.

Good old saying, yes ... and as with any other good old saying, sometimes it does works and sometimes it doesn't :):

Add to that a selective memory remembering only the times when it did work and they are perfect these good old sayings, aren't they :p?

BTW - hard to hold these days any shares which didn't significantly appreciate over the last 12 months ... but I am sure the Covid bearlet last March had nothing to do with it. Jut checked the Mainfreight shares I bought last March - up nearly 100% as well - and they paid a dividend on top of it! But hey, no need to be smug:);

Lease

25-04-2021, 11:16 AM

Yes, everyone has some good picks, and surely has some bad picks. No need to be smug on good picks.

Balance

25-04-2021, 11:25 AM

Good old saying, yes ... and as with any other good old saying, sometimes it does works and sometimes it doesn't :):

Add to that a selective memory remembering only the times when it did work and they are perfect these good old sayings, aren't they :p?

BTW - hard to hold these days any shares which didn't significantly appreciate over the last 12 months ... but I am sure the Covid bearlet last March had nothing to do with it. Jut checked the Mainfreight shares I bought last March - up nearly 100% as well - and they paid a dividend on top of it! But hey, no need to be smug:);

I do not recall the market getting all dark and gloomy about Mainfreight like it did with FBU.

I must have missed it.

Maybe you can point us towards articles or postings to that effect?

Thanks.

BlackPeter

25-04-2021, 11:38 AM

I do not recall the market getting all dark and gloomy about Mainfreight like it did with FBU.

I must have missed it.

Maybe you can point us towards articles or postings to that effect?

Thanks.

Jeez - did you loose this morning your last tooth when trying to chew the porridge? I hope it doesn't hurt that much anymore.

I didn't claim doom and gloom - but you did for FBU. Are you now telling us that all the FBU doom didn't even provide a premium for you? I am really disappointed, balance ... that's not what legends are made from :p;

12457

Just compare the SP of the doomed company you proudly and bravely picked up with the SP of an good old performer everybody else could make money with ...

BTW - MFT paid dividends, FBU didn't ...

Balance

25-04-2021, 11:55 AM

Jeez - did you loose this morning your last tooth when trying to chew the porridge? I hope it doesn't hurt that much anymore.

I didn't claim doom and gloom - but you did for FBU. Are you now telling us that all the FBU doom didn't even provide a premium for you? I am really disappointed, balance ... that's not what legends are made from :p;

Just compare the SP of the doomed company you proudly and bravely picked up with the SP of an good old performer everybody else could make money with ...

BTW - MFT paid dividends, FBU didn't ...

Eh, what's your point about MFT then?

You are trying to compare a stock like MFT with FBU when MFT did not suffer from the doom & gloom which FBU suffered from - hence providing the opportunity.

This is what I posted above so hope you have your glasses on :

Sp closed at 2 year high on Friday.

A very nice 110% return from when I bought last year.

Remember the old saying - when everyone is negative, back up your truck and load up.

I could point to HLG which has also delivered in gains like MFT over the same period as a comparison, and others could do the same with any number of stocks.

Therein lies the difference between what I posted about FBU - when a stock with sound fundamentals is trashed with negativity by the market, and that's when you load up on the stock.

MFT never suffered through that negativity which you have now confirmed. Different basis for investing.

Sounds like you have your wires completely crossed this morning, BP? Wifey did not clean your teeth after breakfast for you like she usually does in the morning?

Balance

25-04-2021, 12:01 PM

So you're busy shovelling ATM onto your truck right now then...?

Or is it not that easy without hindsight in reality... ?

Read what I wrote back in April 2020 :

FBU's biggest weakness has always been the ego of its CEOs to use the earnings & cash flow of its highly profitable and oligopolistic NZ operations to expand overseas.

Hugh Fletcher did it with UK Paper & expansion into Australia, Ralph Waters did it with Laminex in the US, Amatek in Australia and Jonathan Ling did it with Crane in Australia.

Adamson had the misfortune of having to manage the problematic acquisitions when he became CEO, took his eye off the ball in NZ and blew the B&I divisions up!

Parred back to NZ, FBU has always been a very profitable business.

So it's upwards imo from here for a number of years if or until FBU acquires overseas again - then, get the hell out!

No hindsight stuff with me, BigBob unlike others.

That's not to say that FBU did not create some concerns in the course of 2020 - sure it did and I posted accordingly.

As for ATM, it is a stock totally dependent upon China for its performance and as we found out in the last 6 months, without a clue how dependent it was and still is on the opaque Daigou sales channel. There will be a time to consider the stock - when the new CEO articulates his vision & strategy and a clear sp uptrend emerges.

BigBob

25-04-2021, 12:17 PM

Read what I wrote back in April 2020 :

No hindsight stuff with me, BigBob unlike others.

That's not to say that FBU did not create some concerns in the course of 2020 - sure it did and I posted accordingly.

As for ATM, it is a stock totally dependent upon China for its performance and as we found out in the last 6 months, without a clue how dependent it was and still is on the opaque Daigou sales channel. There will be a time to consider the stock - when the new CEO articulates his vision & strategy and a clear sp uptrend emerges.

All good Balance, but that's not what I responded to in your OP.

You said to back up the truck when everyone is negative... Now you're qualifying that statement and that's always easier in hindsight...!

Balance

25-04-2021, 12:20 PM

All good Balance, but that's not what I responded to in your OP.

You said to back up the truck when everyone is negative... Now you're qualifying that statement and that's always easier in hindsight...!

Not everyone is negative yet on ATM - you know that just as well as I do.

But fair enough if you think that is hindsight. No worries!

winner69

25-04-2021, 12:57 PM

Sp closed at 2 year high on Friday.

A very nice 110% return from when I bought last year.

Remember the old saying - when everyone is negative, back up your truck and load up.

Cool eh Balance

Just had to get the past out of your mind and think of the future prospects when all the past issues had been sorted

It was more likely to be a good story than a bad one ....and it's getting better by the week

Couldn't guarantee 100% returns but rewards outweighed risks by a lot at the time (that sounds better than taking a punt eh)

But BP will contend we couldn't predict what's happened

Not quite 100% yet (bit late to party) but I'll join you soon

BlackPeter

25-04-2021, 05:27 PM

Eh, what's your point about MFT then?

My point was there was no need to load off such a "doom and gloom" share if other (reputable) shares did provide the same return.

But I am sure you knew that, just trying to be difficult?

RTM

27-04-2021, 12:56 PM

https://fletcherbuildinginvestorday.gcs-web.com/agenda

5 hours, 11-4pm
Pretty solid commitment by FBU.

Greekwatchdog

27-04-2021, 02:02 PM

You'd almost expect an Upgrade on FY 21

Balance

27-04-2021, 02:04 PM

You'd almost expect an Upgrade on FY 21

Remember - upgrades are managed processes, downgrades are enforced processes.

So yes, I tend to agree with you that there will be yet another upgrade.

sb9

04-05-2021, 12:17 PM

Might hit 8 handle in time for investor day at end of month.

LaserEyeKiwi

04-05-2021, 01:07 PM

Any news today? or is a 3% up day on no news not that strange for FBU?

(I'm a recent investor)

Louisphan

04-05-2021, 02:00 PM

Any news today? or is a 3% up day on no news not that strange for FBU?

(I'm a recent investor)

One large transactions of 3.5 millions shares just changed hand. Anyway, there are sight for FBU target price of $7.75.

sb9

04-05-2021, 02:19 PM

Any news today? or is a 3% up day on no news not that strange for FBU?

(I'm a recent investor)

Nothing specific, however of late FBU price action is driven mainly out of ASX. Going by that big crossing of 3.5mln shares at 7.38 a piece, someone wants in and other want out.

winner69

04-05-2021, 02:49 PM

New home approavls in Australia have been surging of late

Habits

04-05-2021, 03:47 PM

Any news today? or is a 3% up day on no news not that strange for FBU?

(I'm a recent investor)

Now she's up 3cents not 3pct... help! What is going on, I dont think that is normal

Habits

04-05-2021, 06:04 PM

Was it the expectation of MSCI inclusion to replace our ATM friends.... ATM up today so maybe someone in the know is buying

winner69

05-05-2021, 07:19 PM

Should help Fletcher Oz operations

Westpac brief on building approvals -

Dwelling approvals posted another very strong surge in March, up 17.4% vs expectations of a 3% rise and following a 20.1% jump in Feb. The March monthly read is the second highest on records going back to the early 1980s, only just pipped by a spike at the tail end of the Sydney-Melbourne high rise boom in late 2017.

Baa_Baa

05-05-2021, 07:54 PM

Balance

05-05-2021, 08:06 PM

Was it the expectation of MSCI inclusion to replace our ATM friends.... ATM up today so maybe someone in the know is buying

It’s May & the possibility exists that FBU could get back into the MSCI index - will be worth at least $1.00 on the sp if that happens.

winner69

10-05-2021, 03:32 PM

Robertson says we pay too much for building materials

Going to sort it out blah blah

Don't think Fletchers or any others worried one little bit

BlackPeter

10-05-2021, 03:46 PM

Robertson says we pay too much for building materials

Going to sort it out blah blah

Don't think Fletchers or any others worried on little bit

I think both Robertson and you are right :):

stoploss

10-05-2021, 06:35 PM

Robertson says we pay too much for building materials

Going to sort it out blah blah

Don't think Fletchers or any others worried one little bit

Jacinda had a go at the petrol companies , that got as far as Kiwibuild ......
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/consumers-in-my-book-are-being-fleeced-pm-jacinda-ardern-on-petrol-prices/EUTCDQSEW62OQSMINJKYCJYMJM/

Greekwatchdog

11-05-2021, 06:29 PM

Hmm Interesting. From NZ Herald.
Construction and building company Fletcher Building dipped 5c, or 0.67 per cent, to $7.40. Shareholders will be watching with interest news across the Tasman of Kerry Stokes' Seven Group's takeover offer for resurgent building materials giant Boral.

Seven pitched its opening bid at A$6.50 a share for all of Boral, valuing the building materials group's equity at about $8 billion, to which the target company promptly rejected, describing it as an opportunistic bid that undervalues the company.

Habits

12-05-2021, 07:06 PM

Baa_Baa

12-05-2021, 08:33 PM

And again... off 15c/2 percent. Has had a huge run since November ... over 75pct, I guess there comes a time when more results are required. House prices are under pressure, that's going to affect the bottom line.

FBU doesn't care what the building sells for, they supply the materials and building services to build it. The higher the margin on materials, and the more 'services' they can provide, and the more jobs that are on the books ... all equals an extremely bright future, quite unlike that which you are imagining.

Remember that FBU re-made their strategy and had a monumental shift in business focus, only now is it that we are seeing the results of that. For a long term part time holder and observer, FBU is finally finding itself.

winner69

19-05-2021, 03:38 PM

Might hit 8 handle in time for investor day at end of month.

Need a bit of action now for that to happen

Greekwatchdog

26-05-2021, 08:36 AM

$300m Buy Back to restart. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/372850

RTM

26-05-2021, 08:44 AM

$300m Buy Back to restart. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/372850

And an upgrade..
Feb: $610 million to $660million
May: $650m to $665m

$300M buy back, around 41.67M Shares @$7.2. 5% of the shares on issue.
Is this really the best way to help share holders ? Can't see the SP appreciating 5% on the basis of this.
Understand the rational behind it...but as a retiree who relies on dividends and prefers not to sell....not my preferred choice.

Now if the shares were seriously undervalued...then thats another story....but are they ? Doesn't feel like it to me....but how would I know ?

LaserEyeKiwi

26-05-2021, 10:24 AM

And an upgrade..
Feb: $610 million to $660million
May: $650m to $665m

$300M buy back, around 41.67M Shares @$7.2. 5% of the shares on issue.
Is this really the best way to help share holders ? Can't see the SP appreciating 5% on the basis of this.
Understand the rational behind it...but as a retiree who relies on dividends and prefers not to sell....not my preferred choice.

Now if the shares were seriously undervalued...then thats another story....but are they ? Doesn't feel like it to me....but how would I know ?

Well if you wish you can sell 5% of your holdings and consider that a dividend. If you did this, then after the buyback you will still maintain the same percentage ownership in the company as before you sold. Probably end up more tax advantageous for you as the share sales would not be subject to any taxes (presuming you aren’t a trader - consult an accountant etc)

Alternatively if you don’t sell, after the buyback your ownership in the company increases by 5%.

RTM

26-05-2021, 11:00 AM

winner69

26-05-2021, 11:43 AM

Well if you wish you can sell 5% of your holdings and consider that a dividend. If you did this, then after the buyback you will still maintain the same percentage ownership in the company as before you sold. Probably end up more tax advantageous for you as the share sales would not be subject to any taxes (presuming you aren’t a trader - consult an accountant etc)

Alternatively if you don’t sell, after the buyback your ownership in the company increases by 5%.

Well if you wish you can sell 5% of your holdings a........, then after the buyback you will still maintain the same percentage ownership in the company as before you sold. AGREE

Alternatively if you don’t sell, after the buyback your ownership in the company increases by 5% --- No, a bit more than 5% ...about 5.263% .....lucky you

But in the big picture of things unless you got zillions of shares it doesn't really make any difference

Sorry, a bit bored at the moment waiting for the due diligence team to turn up ...they are a bit late

JohnnyTheHorse

26-05-2021, 05:47 PM

Finally freed up some money in the long term portfolio for a position in this. Been meaning to for quite awhile. With the support of the buyback I think the previous $9 highs could be on the cards later this year.

Greekwatchdog

26-05-2021, 05:53 PM

Previous High was Sept 2016 - $10.21, May 2007 - $12.54. Time will tell if it hits those dizzy heights..

Greekwatchdog

27-05-2021, 08:09 AM

For Bars latest update this morning.

NEUTRAL
Fletcher Building's (FBU) investor day was informative but does little to change our investment view. Unsurprisingly, (1) the
trading environment remains favourable, (2) guidance was lifted (+4% at the midpoint although boosted by higher land
sales), and (3) cost pressures have arisen. The announcement of an NZ$300m on-market share buyback, which we expect
will be +3% accretive to EPS, was a welcome surprise for shareholders. However, the key upside driver of FBU's share price
in the near-term hinges on its ability to achieve its 10% EBIT margin target by FY23 (vs. consensus expectations of 8.5%).
FBU expects to meet this goal through an enhanced focus on residential and land development, market share gains, and by
entering product adjacencies. Trading on 15.2x forward earnings, we view current levels as broadly fair, particularly given
elevated construction activity. NEUTRAL.
What's changed?
Trading environment remains buoyant
With demand for housing resilient, government stimulus targeting infrastructure, and local manufacturers enjoying share gains at the
expense of imports, FBU are operating in a favourable environment. Capacity constraints are beginning to emerge across the industry,
and FBU believe this will result in activity being sustained at current strong levels rather than the spike which consents data may
suggest. Cost pressures have also emerged, with FBU noting a c.NZ$10–15m impact in 2H21 from supply chain constraints and rising
input costs (e.g. energy and steel), however, the brunt of inflationary pressures appear to be being worn by customers. With these
dynamics in play, FBU raised FY21 EBIT guidance to NZ$650m–$665m (vs. previous guidance of NZ$610m–NZ$660m).
How likely are 10% EBIT margins in FY23?
FBU outlined ambitions to achieve a 10% EBIT margin target by FY23, underpinned by four key pillars; (1) AU operating disciplines
and growth initiatives, (2) Construction forward order book replacing nil margin legacy work, (3) leverage in NZ Core and adjacencies,
and (4) strong top-line growth at >15% margin in Residential and Development. The principal new message was the importance of the
residential and development division to reaching this target with ambition to build 300 apartments a year (in addition to the 1,000
homes already targeted) as well as 100 retirement units and development of industrial land. We view investment in this strong
performing business unit as sensible, although it comes with additional risk given entry into new markets. We do not forecast FBU
achieving its FY23 margin goal, with low margin Australia and Construction divisions limiting further expansion.

Louisphan

31-05-2021, 05:00 PM

Habits

31-05-2021, 08:45 PM

peat

01-06-2021, 09:49 AM

I am just wondering why people already known that someone (The FBU) will buy the stocks any price but they still keep selling it for current price? Do I miss anything? Or that is the FBU's related Party who just make the buy back's plan to buy their shares at high price? Or it is just simple there are big funds who want to exit the stocks but afraid that no one will buy so they selling now when there are a buyer???

In my understanding buy-backs are usually designed so they dont move or affect the market - there is enough liquidity in a Top 10 stock to do this and still achieve the goals of the buy back i.e accumulate shares. I think your assumptions that they will buy them at any price or at any time should be questioned. They may or they may not. And the price may still go up or down as driven by market and security sentiment.

JohnnyTheHorse

01-06-2021, 10:22 AM

In my understanding buy-backs are usually designed so they dont move or affect the market - there is enough liquidity in a Top 10 stock to do this and still achieve the goals of the buy back i.e accumulate shares. I think your assumptions that they will buy them at any price or at any time should be questioned. They may or they may not. And the price may still go up or down as driven by market and security sentiment.

In theory, but practically speaking they are designed to minimise any impact on price. But as you say fundamentals and sentiment are still king.

Greekwatchdog

02-06-2021, 08:03 AM

Still no slowdown in Consents. - Below from For Barr.
NZ Consents — What Slowdown?

Residential consents remained very strong in April, being the second largest number on record at 48.2k (annualised and
seasonally adjusted). Over the past twelve months 42.8k dwellings have been consented including 18.2k in Auckland. This is
the total highest total for any 12 month period, with strong demand underpinned by low interest rates and tight
supply. There are signs that demand and house price growth may be softening with auction clearance rates and housing
turnover moderating post the removal of investor interest tax deductions on existing dwellings. While this has yet to impact
consents, we note changes in housing demand have historically taken c.5 months to flow through. Non-residential
continued recent momentum with the 12-month rolling value now slightly above 2019 levels but area consented remains
soft.
Residential strength continues, Auckland cracks 18k
Residential consents continued their strong run in April with reported approvals of 48.2k (seasonally adjusted and annualised), the
second highest on record, up +4.7% mom and +68.0% yoy (cycling a lockdown impacted comp). Positive growth on the prior month
was evenly split between detached (+4.9% mom, +50.8% yoy) and higher density dwellings (+4.6% mom, 98.5% yoy). High density
dwellings have been the larger driver of growth in consents over the last 12 months and remain at historically high levels, comprising
of 45% total consents, with 66% in Auckland. 12 month-rolling floor area consented, which provides the best measure of future
residential activity, was up +12.9% yoy. Regionally, growth continues to be led by Auckland (+23.3% yoy and now >18k), Regional
North Island (+23.9%), Canterbury (+15.2%) and Waikato-Bay of Plenty (+9.9%), while Wellington was broadly flat (+1.4%)
and Regional South Island (-6.7%) declined.
Non-residential continues to pick up
Non-residential has continued recent momentum in April with value/sqm up +49.1%/+13.7% yoy albeit against a lockdown
impacted comparable. On a rolling 12-month basis non-residential consents value is up a solid +17.0% yoy and slightly above 2019
levels but area approved (sqm) remains subdued and was down -8.5%. Non-residential consents are often variable due to the size and
nature of projects. We have seen announcements of some projects that were paused due to the pandemic restarting, particularly in
Auckland Industrial and Office, and industry participants have suggested that government led activity is lifting in the regions. It was a
strong month for Accommodation and Health, Education and Industrial, but Retail remains weak.

tim23

02-06-2021, 06:18 PM

Can it hold a break above $7.60?

RTM

04-06-2021, 08:47 AM

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/373420

Here we go. Hope they have it right and the FBU shares are not over valued, they are not the highest they've been for a while...is it years ...right ?
These guys have never made mistakes...right ?
Hope it turns out well.
By the way LEK, I am not selling any.

winner69

04-06-2021, 08:52 AM

RTM

04-06-2021, 09:00 AM

They bought heaps at just over $5 not that long ago

That sounds sensible...but $7.60 and chasing the price up ?

winner69

04-06-2021, 09:07 AM

That sounds sensible...but $7.60 and chasing the price up ?

Punters thought FBU at $5 two years wasn’t cheap ...but the company ‘chased the price up’

It’s giving something back to shareholders that’s important ... buyback improves Total Shareholder Returns

BlackPeter

04-06-2021, 09:18 AM

Punters thought FBU at $5 two years wasn’t cheap ...but the company ‘chased the price up’

It’s giving something back to shareholders that’s important ... buyback improves Total Shareholder Returns

Sometimes it does - for a time. Sometimes it doesn't.

Not hard to find examples for buybacks which flopped ... probably more than buybacks which worked. I guess it all depends on whether the judgement of the company whether the share is at the time undervalued or not is right or wrong :):

RTM

04-06-2021, 09:39 AM

Sometimes it does - for a time. Sometimes it doesn't.

Not hard to find examples for buybacks which flopped ... probably more than buybacks which worked. I guess it all depends on whether the judgement of the company whether the share is at the time undervalued or not is right or wrong :):

Yep…and you have complete confidence in the company to make that judgement…right ? Pass me a Tui.
As I’ve said, I’m holding, but far from convinced.

tim23

06-06-2021, 01:30 PM

Sometimes it does - for a time. Sometimes it doesn't.

Not hard to find examples for buybacks which flopped ... probably more than buybacks which worked. I guess it all depends on whether the judgement of the company whether the share is at the time undervalued or not is right or wrong :):

They say its more efficient than a special dividend I guess?

LaserEyeKiwi

07-06-2021, 12:49 AM

Sometimes it does - for a time. Sometimes it doesn't.

Not hard to find examples for buybacks which flopped ... probably more than buybacks which worked. I guess it all depends on whether the judgement of the company whether the share is at the time undervalued or not is right or wrong :):

Buybacks are simply a form of capital return to shareholders, there is no inherently “right or wrong” to them, just as there is no “right or wrong” to dividend payments.

BlackPeter

07-06-2021, 02:12 PM

Buybacks are simply a form of capital return to shareholders, there is no inherently “right or wrong” to them, just as there is no “right or wrong” to dividend payments.

Not sure I would put it that way. Sure - there is no right or wrong to the method of using share buybacks, but there are times when this method of capital return is an advantage to shareholders, and there are other times when it is a disadvantage to shareholders.

If the company pays dividends (it can afford to pay), than the individual shareholder can decide what to do with the money - which is a quite fair and neutral way to return earnings.

If the company however buys back their shares, than there are two scenarios:

(1) Share price is sustainably rising - which means the company was in the eyes of the market more worth than market cap at the time of buyback. In this case the share buyback made a lot of sense for share holders, I would call this a "right" or "good" decision of the board.

(2) Share price is sustainably dropping - which means that the company was in the eyes of the market less worth than market cap at the time of the buyback. In this case the share buy back destroyed shareholder assets and I would call it a wrong or bad decision of the board.

Obviously - there are as well these cases in between, where it does not really matter whether the company paid dividends or choose to buy back shares. Depending on the relevant legal system there might be though some tax benefits for share buybacks, but this is a different story.

winner69

08-06-2021, 06:54 PM

Not sure I would put it that way. Sure - there is no right or wrong to the method of using share buybacks, but there are times when this method of capital return is an advantage to shareholders, and there are other times when it is a disadvantage to shareholders.

If the company pays dividends (it can afford to pay), than the individual shareholder can decide what to do with the money - which is a quite fair and neutral way to return earnings.

If the company however buys back their shares, than there are two scenarios:

(1) Share price is sustainably rising - which means the company was in the eyes of the market more worth than market cap at the time of buyback. In this case the share buyback made a lot of sense for share holders, I would call this a "right" or "good" decision of the board.

(2) Share price is sustainably dropping - which means that the company was in the eyes of the market less worth than market cap at the time of the buyback. In this case the share buy back destroyed shareholder assets and I would call it a wrong or bad decision of the board.

Obviously - there are as well these cases in between, where it does not really matter whether the company paid dividends or choose to buy back shares. Depending on the relevant legal system there might be though some tax benefits for share buybacks, but this is a different story.

It seems that you are assuming that any fall or rise in the share price is solely a result of the buyback.... is that how you see it?

sb9

08-06-2021, 10:16 PM

$8 within sight, could happen by end of week.

Buy back set to begin on 10th June, market wants the company to pay higher price to buy back their own shares.

BlackPeter

09-06-2021, 08:54 AM

It seems that you are assuming that any fall or rise in the share price is solely a result of the buyback.... is that how you see it?

Absolutely not.

Share buybacks might temporarily change the story (impacting on the hype component of the share price), but the fundamentals stay basically unchanged (well, there is a minute reduction of dilution).

What I am saying is - if a companies share is undervalued, than buybacks might be a good idea. If however a companies share is already overpriced - they are not. Problem is - boards are frequently quite poorly equipped to decide which situation is which. Quite funny by the way - if directors buy shares for their own portfolio, you can often (not always) trust them to do the right thing. However if they buy shares with the shareholders money (i.e. share buyback), their judgement more often seems to be clouded.

winner69

09-06-2021, 09:13 AM

Loved the headline in BusinessDesk the other day 'Why is Fletcher buying and destroying its own shares?'

Sounds rather dramatic but to some degree sort of summarises misconceptions / understanding of share buy backs

RTM

09-06-2021, 09:48 AM

Absolutely not.

Share buybacks might temporarily change the story (impacting on the hype component of the share price), but the fundamentals stay basically unchanged (well, there is a minute reduction of dilution).

What I am saying is - if a companies share is undervalued, than buybacks might be a good idea. If however a companies share is already overpriced - they are not. Problem is - boards are frequently quite poorly equipped to decide which situation is which. Quite funny by the way - if directors buy shares for their own portfolio, you can often (not always) trust them to do the right thing. However if they buy shares with the shareholders money (i.e. share buyback), their judgement more often seems to be clouded.

Exactly ! And at $8.00 per share ?
Tax or no tax...I would rather they gave us the dividend and let me decide whether to increase my shareholding in the company or not. Which I could easily do by buying more shares. Not at all convinced that this is a good move by FBU.
PS But they have more data / detailed knowledge of how the company is tracking than I do...so hopefully they have it right if they plan to buy back around $8.00 !

winner69

09-06-2021, 09:55 AM

Less shares on issue = higher eps = higher share price .....yeah right

Greekwatchdog

09-06-2021, 10:05 AM

Its an interesting argument each way. Can't recall how many they bought up to when Covid cancelled the remainder. I guess management must be very bullish going forward to spend $300m on it. Time will tell.

Sideshow Bob

09-06-2021, 10:26 AM

Less shares on issue = higher eps = higher share price .....yeah right

Of course this isn't their first buyback rodeo. They announced late June 2019 for the intention to buyback up to $300m (price at the time was about $4.85), which carried on until suspended for Covid, late March last year. Not sure how much they bought in total, but price bottomed out about $4.30 but broadly tracked upwards until Covid lockdown.

LaserEyeKiwi

09-06-2021, 12:35 PM

Buybacks are primarily a capital return - the most tax efficient one - and pace of buyback shouldn’t really be determined by short term share price movements, unless their is an obvious very deep temporary discount. regardless of the share price, after a buyback all remaining shareholders who did not sell will have a larger ownership percentage of the company, and whatever the market capitalization is, the share price will be higher after the buyback than before the buyback for any given market cap value.

dibble

09-06-2021, 12:39 PM

Tax or no tax...I would rather they gave us the dividend and let me decide whether to increase my shareholding in the company or not. Which I could easily do by buying more shares.

Agree entirely.
And it does raise a Q (which I may have raised before...apologies, cant recall), the best possible reason I can think of for a coy to buy its own shares is because it has superior internal knowledge to the market otherwise why not leave it to shareholders to decide, if that's the case is that legal? Does anyone know if a coy itself is subject to insider knowledge laws?

JohnnyTheHorse

09-06-2021, 12:44 PM

Agree entirely.
And it does raise a Q (which I may have raised before...apologies, cant recall), the best possible reason I can think of for a coy to buy its own shares is because it has superior internal knowledge to the market otherwise why not leave it to shareholders to decide, if that's the case is that legal? Does anyone know if a coy itself is subject to insider knowledge laws?

It's generally more tax efficient. It's also great for management if their performance bonuses have links to shareprice targets.

LaserEyeKiwi

09-06-2021, 12:48 PM

Exactly ! And at $8.00 per share ?
Tax or no tax...I would rather they gave us the dividend and let me decide whether to increase my shareholding in the company or not. Which I could easily do by buying more shares. Not at all convinced that this is a good move by FBU.
PS But they have more data / detailed knowledge of how the company is tracking than I do...so hopefully they have it right if they plan to buy back around $8.00 !

dividends are taxed. If you wanted to increase your shareholding in FBU by using dividends, you would end up with less ownership of the company than you would by way of buyback. Likewise if you didn’t want your ownership stake in the company increased, you can instead sell the equivalent amount of shares in FBU that the buyback eliminates, that way you are effectively getting the same amount of cash you would have gotten from a dividend, but tax free (although with a small commission paid to your broker).

BlackPeter

09-06-2021, 12:58 PM

dividends are taxed. If you wanted to increase your shareholding in FBU by using dividends, you would end up with less ownership of the company than you would by way of buyback. Likewise if you didn’t want your ownership stake in the company increased, you can instead sell the equivalent amount of shares in FBU that the buyback eliminates, that way you are effectively getting the same amount of cash you would have gotten from a dividend, but tax free (although with a small commission paid to your broker).

Quite simplified and incomplete view of the tax rules.

Yes, Dividends are taxable, but so are capital gains if IRD deems you a trader. No difference in this case (if you need or want to sell your shares).

Dividends come with imputation credits (helping you to save taxes) which you would not get in case of a buy back.

At the end - sometimes buy backs are more tax efficient for some individual investors, sometimes they are not. I however do not see it as desirable if boards favor with their buy back decision some of their investors over others.

RTM

09-06-2021, 12:59 PM

dividends are taxed. If you wanted to increase your shareholding in FBU by using dividends, you would end up with less ownership of the company than you would by way of buyback. Likewise if you didn’t want your ownership stake in the company increased, you can instead sell the equivalent amount of shares in FBU that the buyback eliminates, that way you are effectively getting the same amount of cash you would have gotten from a dividend, but tax free (although with a small commission paid to your broker).

I understand all of that LEK, but thank you for your detailed explanations anyway.. You obviously trust FBU to make sane decisions with respect to the buy back. Thats the bit that irks me. I don't. If the shares were $5.00...well that might make sense. But around $8.. ?

Rawz

09-06-2021, 01:10 PM

I understand all of that LEK, but thank you for your detailed explanations anyway.. You obviously trust FBU to make sane decisions with respect to the buy back. Thats the bit that irks me. I don't. If the shares were $5.00...well that might make sense. But around $8.. ?

RTM, if you don't believe it's good buying around $8 per share
OR,
if you don't believe management know $8 is good buying then surely you are ringing your broker as fast as you can to dump your entire position?

Where is your conviction? :)

RTM

09-06-2021, 01:37 PM

RTM, if you don't believe it's good buying around $8 per share
OR,
if you don't believe management know $8 is good buying then surely you are ringing your broker as fast as you can to dump your entire position?

Where is your conviction? :)

Well...I bought mine at 3.25 not so long ago. Would completely support FBU doing the same.
I'm moving on, but thanks for all the advice.

winner69

09-06-2021, 01:46 PM

Last years buyback they purchased 29m shares for $147m (average about $5.14) ...and 'destroyed' the lot

That was about 3.4% of their shares

Helped TSR and TSR features a lot share based incentive scheme and other remuneration

winner69

09-06-2021, 03:09 PM

Share price up about 9% since the last profit upgrade and that Investor Day

NZX50 only up 1%

Obviously liked by the big end of town

LaserEyeKiwi

09-06-2021, 03:27 PM

Quite simplified and incomplete view of the tax rules.

Yes, Dividends are taxable, but so are capital gains if IRD deems you a trader. No difference in this case (if you need or want to sell your shares).

Dividends come with imputation credits (helping you to save taxes) which you would not get in case of a buy back.

At the end - sometimes buy backs are more tax efficient for some individual investors, sometimes they are not. I however do not see it as desirable if boards favor with their buy back decision some of their investors over others.

It's true the imputation system here in NZ makes it a bit blurrier (as do the investing vs trading rules). much more clear cut in US market.

LaserEyeKiwi

09-06-2021, 03:28 PM

Well...I bought mine at 3.25 not so long ago. Would completely support FBU doing the same.
I'm moving on, but thanks for all the advice.

well done on your entry price! cant blame you for lightening up or exiting position.

LaserEyeKiwi

09-06-2021, 03:29 PM

Share price up about 9% since the last profit upgrade and that Investor Day

NZX50 only up 1%

Obviously liked by the big end of town

Odd of MSCI world index inclusion might be playing a part with ATM collapse?

Scrunch

09-06-2021, 05:48 PM

It's generally more tax efficient. It's also great for management if their performance bonuses have links to shareprice targets.

And it reduces (but doesn't eliminate) the chances of FBU making a value destroying acquisition. They have had a few of these so a lower chance of another is a good thing.

Balance

10-06-2021, 09:39 AM

And it reduces (but doesn't eliminate) the chances of FBU making a value destroying acquisition. They have had a few of these so a lower chance of another is a good thing.

Excellent point!

This has been the greatest wealth destroyer by FBU's egoistic and over-glorified CEOs & management from the last CEO to way way back to Hugh Fletcher's time.

But be thankful as it has meant opportunities to pick up FBU shares really really cheap!

FBU just have to stick to its NZ operations and milk the oligopolistic businesses that it is in and the sp will surely rise well above previous highs.

winner69

16-06-2021, 06:48 PM

Good article in BusinessDesk re the FBU buyback headlined

Fletcher buyback timing likely to boost exec bonuses

Paywalled

Nice one ...but we are all winners at the moment.

Balance

17-06-2021, 09:32 AM

peat

17-06-2021, 11:34 AM

Good article in BusinessDesk re the FBU buyback headlined

Fletcher buyback timing likely to boost exec bonuses

Paywalled

Nice one ...but we are all winners at the moment.

really goes to show that corporate management have no clue about investing. they were issuing equity at $4

Baa_Baa

17-06-2021, 11:50 AM

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/374067

First cab off the rank to announce FY21 results.

Always a good sign that things are going very well when a company is busting at the bits to tell everyone how things are going.

That is a very good sign, also noting the upbeat (even bullish) commentary from STU, hopefully the whole sector is enjoying the massive monetary stimulus in construction and FBU in particular.

After a recent few years of disastrous investments, FBU finally seem to be back on track for a bright future. There's still plenty of upside SP imo, my LT target is the old ATH, and enjoy the divi on the way.

winner69

18-06-2021, 11:15 AM

The pleasing thing about FBU's earnings growth so far this year is that they have achieved it without increasing actual activity - it's been a case of doing about the same but making more (in other words margin improvement)

Just imagine what profits might be if they increased activity levels

And the economic climate points to that happening

BlackPeter

18-06-2021, 03:58 PM

Balance

19-06-2021, 09:49 AM

Just a bit scared considering what happened last time when they increased activity levels :scared:

But anyway - this time will be different!

It is different this time (at this stage) as FBU is sticking to its knitting - expanding & investing in core domestic oligopolistic businesses where it has real competitive advantages.

When it starts expanding overseas and making acquisitions outside of its core businesses, that’s when it is not different anymore and it’s time to get out.

BlackPeter

19-06-2021, 10:11 AM

It is different this time (at this stage) as FBU is sticking to its knitting - expanding & investing in core domestic oligopolistic businesses where it has real competitive advantages.

When it starts expanding overseas and making acquisitions outside of its core businesses, that’s when it is not different anymore and it’s time to get out.

Sure, they have lots of experience in burning money overseas (as many other NZ companies who think that if they know NZ they know the world) - but didn't they make a dogs breakfast out of the Christchurch rebuild as well? But maybe repairing houses not their core business either.

I give you this - they always made money with selling ways too expensive building materials ... just not sure why nobody in NZ wants to fight their pharmacy prices ...

BlackPeter

19-06-2021, 10:12 AM

removed duplicate created thanks to unsatisfactory server performance / setup

winner69

19-06-2021, 10:25 AM

Balance

19-06-2021, 10:34 AM

Fascinating chart in a BusinessDesk article re Taylor’s rem.

Breach of copyright but if I give BusinessDesk a plug they mightn’t mind ..subscribe here https://businessdesk.co.nz/why-you-should-subscribe-to-BusinessDesk

Big payout for Taylor coming in 2022, I suspect.

And well deserved as he has had to do some serious cleaning up of the garbage left behind by his predecessors.

As for Ralph Norris - it is sad that he did not see fit to retire at the very top but presided as Chairman through one of the worse debacles yet in NZ corporate history.

Balance

19-06-2021, 10:38 AM

tim23

20-06-2021, 03:25 PM

Big payout for Taylor coming in 2022, I suspect.

And well deserved as he has had to do some serious cleaning up of the garbage left behind by his predecessors.

As for Ralph Norris - it is sad that he did not see fit to retire at the very top but presided as Chairman through one of the worse debacles yet in NZ corporate history.

Agree and let us forget the previous CEO!

winner69

01-07-2021, 02:23 PM

Latest building consent numbers still strong

Westpac says The pipeline of consents suggests that homebuilding activity will remain strong over the rest of 2021 and into 2022

That’s good

winner69

09-07-2021, 02:12 PM

A month ago FBU was heading to 8 bucks

Now it's heading to 7 bucks

When does the buy back start again

winner69

09-07-2021, 02:17 PM

jeez - the buyback doesn't start again until 20th of August

Need another earnings upgrade

Sideshow Bob

09-07-2021, 03:18 PM

jeez - the buyback doesn't start again until 20th of August

Need another earnings upgrade

Just put the price of Gib, Pink Bats, reinforcing steel etc etc etc up (again).

JohnnyTheHorse

09-07-2021, 05:45 PM

jeez - the buyback doesn't start again until 20th of August

Need another earnings upgrade

That's a trade plan I already have filed for next month.

Balance

22-07-2021, 10:48 AM

jeez - the buyback doesn't start again until 20th of August

Need another earnings upgrade

STU's earnings upgrade yesterday indicates yet another upgrade before FBU announces its results once all numbers are in.

Meanwhile, FBU's substantial land holding around NZ is already worth potentially billions of dollars more.

Greekwatchdog

29-07-2021, 10:18 AM

For Bar just upgraded to Outperform.

OUTPERFORM
We expect Fletcher Building's (FBU) earnings momentum to continue over the next 12–18 months. Whilst capacity and
supply chain constraints are limiting the pace of construction work done in NZ, FBU's domestic manufacturing is
benefitting from lower competition from imports and a strong pricing environment. FBU is not without risk, the principal
being cost pressures not being able to be completely offset with price, however, given consensus is forecasting flat NZ
earnings over FY22/23 we believe risks are skewed to the upside. We upgrade to OUTPERFORM.
What's changed?
Easing competitive constraints...
We expect NZ core to remain stronger-for-longer. Whilst a number of tail winds are likely to ease over the near to medium
term (rising interest rates, subdued population growth, reduced residential supply/demand imbalance) — demand will be underpinned
by a historical under build, solid pipeline, and capacity constraints elongating the cycle. Furthermore, the sharp increase in the price of
transporting goods has reduced competitive pressures from imports with FBU's domestic manufacturing businesses being a key
beneficiary. While cost pressures are emerging, the elevated demand and tight supply environment should see these largely passed
onto customers.
...supports a period of stronger NZ earnings growth
We have upgraded our earnings forecasts for FY22 and FY23. Primarily as a result of increasing NZ materials prices and improving
non-residential/infrastructure activity. However, building materials cost pressures and a softer Australian FY22 (given ongoing
lockdowns) weigh on upgrades. We see upside risk to consensus numbers which currently forecast flat NZ earnings over FY22–23.
Valuation not challenging in an expensive market
While FBU is trading above its long-run average multiples (EV/EBIT and P/E of 11.0x/14.5x vs. historical averages of 10.1x/13.0x) we
do not view this as an impediment to a more positive view given (1) our expectations of upgrades and (2) larger discounts to both the
New Zealand market and Australian building materials peers history. Furthermore, FBU offers a solid cash yield of 5.0%, a healthy
balance sheet, and is in the early stages of a NZ$300m buyback

winner69

05-08-2021, 05:06 PM

Boral packing a sad and exiting its NZ plasterboard operations

Well that leaves Fletcher's Winstone with basically 100% of the market ....cool

dobby41

05-08-2021, 05:25 PM

Boral packing a sad and exiting its NZ plasterboard operations

Well that leaves Fletcher's Winstone with basically 100% of the market ....cool

Do you know what % of the market they had?
Bunnings has it but is 'available to order' so not in stock.
Bunnings also have Elephant board available to order as well.

Greekwatchdog

05-08-2021, 05:42 PM

Sort of answers. Extract from NZ Herald..

Fletcher Building's Winstone Wallboards has market dominance nationally via its Gib brand, manufactured at Penrose but shifting to a new $400m Tauranga plant in 2023.

Kevin van Hest of Elephant Plasterboard in Auckland said he was sorry to see USG Boral leave this country.

"This now just leaves Elephant Plasterboard and Gib plasterboard in the New Zealand market," he said. "It is very sad, even though they were also a competitor of ours. New Zealand needs competition in the plasterboard market. Prices for Gib are already starting to skyrocket. It's the consumers that will ultimately suffer. If we go, then it will truly be a monopoly."

van Hest estimated Gib might have a 97 per cent market share after USG Boral's departure.

David Thomas, Winstone Wallboards' general manager, said the wall linings market in New Zealand was very competitive with a number of products still available in addition to Gib plasterboard.

"GIB is Kiwi-made, supported by great customer service, is a reliable quality product and provides best value for money, making it a very competitive product offering. Our focus has always been on providing the best value offering to our customers, in terms of product quality and customer service, at a price that reflects that value, just as we have done for more than 90 years," Thomas said today.

Gerald

05-08-2021, 05:56 PM

Do you know what % of the market they had?
Bunnings has it but is 'available to order' so not in stock.
Bunnings also have Elephant board available to order as well.

15m revenue not really significant but could reduce pricing pressure.

LaserEyeKiwi

06-08-2021, 07:08 AM

van Hest estimated Gib might have a 97 per cent market share after USG Boral's departure.

David Thomas, Winstone Wallboards' general manager, said the wall linings market in New Zealand was very competitive with a number of products still available in addition to Gib plasterboard.

The quoted section is hilarious.

Greekwatchdog

12-08-2021, 01:20 PM

Placemakers 15% price rise. Paywalled.. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/placemakers-customers-get-price-rise-warning-up-to-15-freight-raw-material-costs-cited/HN6N4ERDAWNOD7E5QETLN2KWVQ/

winner69

15-08-2021, 06:09 PM

Big day for Fletcher’s this Wednesday

I reckon F21 ebit to be $675m - above guidance

What will be good if they come out f22 guidance of $740m/$750m

Looking forward to it

Greekwatchdog

15-08-2021, 06:33 PM

I think you may be correct W69. FY22 I am expecting $740m/$800m. They are well positioned with residential new builds for next 12/24 months + Govt Infrastructure work. Legacy projects should almost be out? Increasing prices to cover there own increases as well.

sb9

17-08-2021, 12:20 PM

Nice price bounce ahead of FY results tomorrow. I'm expecting quite a bit of bullish outlook statements and a fatter divvy payout. Perhaps an outside chance of another go at acquiring STU??

Balance

17-08-2021, 12:23 PM

Nice price bounce ahead of FY results tomorrow. I'm expecting quite a bit of bullish outlook statements and a fatter divvy payout. Perhaps an outside chance of another go at acquiring STU??

No chance of acquiring STU.

But read commentary on their steel division to give a good steer on how STU will be doing as well.

Share buyback to resume after results.

winner69

17-08-2021, 12:46 PM

No chance of acquiring STU.

But read commentary on their steel division to give a good steer on how STU will be doing as well.

Share buyback to resume after results.

Bluescope reported NZ Steel had a boomer of a year ….sales up about 14% and ebit margin 15% (made a loss lastbyear)

Sideshow Bob

18-08-2021, 08:41 AM

Fletcher Building strong FY21 result, final dividend 18cps - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/377445)

Fletcher Building strong FY21 result, final dividend 18cps

18/8/2021, 8:31 amFLLYRFletcher Building delivers strong FY21 result, final dividend of 18 cps
Auckland, 18 August 2021: Fletcher Building today announced its audited financial results for the year ended 30 June 2021 (FY21).

Summary:
- Revenue of $8,120 million, up from $7,309 million in FY20
- Net Profit After Tax of $305 million, compared to a loss of $196 million in FY20
- EBIT before significant items of $669 million
- Return on Funds Employed before significant items of 18.6%
- Cash flows from operations of $889 million
- Strong balance sheet with net debt of $173 million and liquidity of $1.6 billion
- Final dividend 18 cents per share, bringing full-year FY21 dividend to 30 cps
- On-market share buyback programme of up to NZ$300 million through to Jun-22

Chief executive Ross Taylor said: “Fletcher Building’s strong FY21 financial result reflects the significant work carried out over the past three years to reset and simplify the business. We are confident we have a sustainable base from which we can drive further performance improvements and growth.

“FY21 saw increases across all our key financial metrics. EBIT before significant items of $669 million was ahead of our full-year guidance. EBIT margin of 8.2% and Return on Funds Employed of 18.6% were both materially higher than FY19 (our most recent comparable year). Cash flows from operating activities were very strong at $889 million, partially benefitting from low stock levels in our manufacturing and housing businesses, which we expect to rebuild through FY22. Our balance sheet finished the year in a strong position, with net debt of $173 million and $1.6 billion liquidity at 30 June 2021. Just after year end, we were pleased to reach an agreement to sell Rocla for AU$55 million.

“Having delivered a strong earnings and cash flow result, the Board has approved a final dividend for the year ended 30 June 2021 of 18 cents per share (unimputed and unfranked) to be paid on 17 September 2021. Combined with the 12.0 cents per share interim dividend, this brings the total dividend to 30 cents per share for the FY21 year. Our share buyback programme of up to $300 million started in June and will continue through FY22.

“We continue to make targeted investments to deliver on our strategy. This includes a mix of capital and operating spend, and remains focused in three areas: key maintenance investments, such as the new Winstone Wallboards plasterboard facility; initiatives which support our sustainability ambition, such as the waste tyre recycling facility at our cement plant; and growth investments in product adjacencies and digital capabilities. Our focus on digital includes an acceleration of our programme to create a backbone system environment that is fit-for-purpose.

“As we look ahead, we believe that the economic trends in our key markets remain supportive for further growth. In New Zealand, the activity pipeline continues to look ‘stronger for longer,’ especially in the residential sector. With ongoing supply chain and labour constraints having the effect of smoothing the recent sharp rises in building consents over a longer period, this is likely to mean an extended period of solid building activity through FY22 and beyond. In Australia, the residential outlook also remains resilient, particularly across detached housing and renovations, while the apartments, commercial and key civil sectors are likely to stabilise at current levels.

“There does remain some uncertainty around the impact of COVID-19 on activity in our markets. We will continue to monitor and manage this closely.
“Overall, the combination of a clear strategy, a favourable market outlook and a strong balance sheet means Fletcher Building is well-positioned to deliver future performance and growth.

“Finally, there’s no doubt that the past year has seen many challenges and disruptions resulting from the global pandemic. Against this backdrop, I would like to thank our more than 14,500 people who have delivered this performance while remaining focused on supporting our customers and each other.”

#Ends

Greekwatchdog

18-08-2021, 08:45 AM

FY22 outlook
Continue to drive performance and growth
Page 41 | Fletcher Building Limited Full Year Results Presentation | © August 2021
➔ New Zealand: activity pipeline continues to look “stronger for longer,” especially in Residential; supply chain and labour constraints mean
Residential sector is currently at or near capacity, likely to mean extended period of building activity in FY22 and beyond
➔ Australia: macro backdrop supportive for growth; Residential outlook strong, detached housing and renovations supportive offset by apartments
sector; Commercial and key civil sectors stabilising at current levels
➔ Input cost inflation and supply chain disruption remain key features of the NZ and AU operating environment; businesses well set up to recover
costs through price
➔ COVID-19 outbreaks/lockdowns remain a risk. Sharp operational focus, strong response disciplines embedded
➔ We have a strong balance sheet, a favourable market outlook, and remain well-positioned to drive performance and growth
➔ Further update on trading and outlook to be provided at Annual Shareholders Meeting in October 2021

Balance

18-08-2021, 09:48 AM

Results pretty much bang on with consensus forecast except for positive upside of :

1. Cashflow so net debt is now down to all of $173m,

2. Final dividend of 18cps is 3 cps better than expected.

All in all an excellent result.

BlackPeter

18-08-2021, 10:11 AM

Revenue slightly above analyst predictions, earnings slightly below (37cps vs 39cps expected).

Return on Equity not outrageous - a tired 6.1%, but hey, much better than last year (which delivered a loss) and good that they managed to reduce their debt load (liabilities to assets to something like 52%.

NTA is $3.30 per share - hmm.

forward PE (3 year average) is now 16.7, however predicted forward earnings growth (based on pre-result predictions) is 10%. Backward earnings growth however is zilch, so can they really do it? Not a good company in boom times ...

Maybe ok-ish priced (if the earning predictions hold) but in my view not a cheap stock - but one never knows to which heights hype can drive a stock ...

peat

18-08-2021, 10:18 AM

Look at this Long term tho.
12849

BlackPeter

18-08-2021, 10:50 AM

Look at this Long term tho.
12849

Yes?

Hardly any move in long term revenue. Actually - 10 year revenue CAGR is negative 0.2%. Not a pretty picture.

Earnings per share jumping around a lot every year, but the overall CAGR looks still worse than the revenue: 10 year CAGR negative 1.9%;

Lets hope that their future looks better than their past, shall we?

"this time it will be different" ... ?

But again ... nobody can predict where hype drives the SP in the short term ...

winner69

18-08-2021, 10:54 AM

BP - you got lockdown blues already?

I'm a bit concerned about you state of mind

RTM

18-08-2021, 10:58 AM

With respect to Revenue BP...didnt they withdraw from...how did they describe it...vertical projects ?
Wouldn't you expect this to affect revenue ?

Greekwatchdog

18-08-2021, 11:01 AM

They are back quoting and winning vertical projects with better margins and tighter control. Also retentions are looked at very closely as FBU Lawyers get involved checking contracts to ensure FBU are covered..

RTM

18-08-2021, 11:03 AM

BlackPeter

18-08-2021, 11:19 AM

BP - you got lockdown blues already?

I'm a bit concerned about you state of mind

Thanks for asking ... but - I am quite happy with these lock downs. It is so much quieter in the township and we have lots of work to do on our block.

Sorry if I don't join the FBU cheerleaders. I guess somebody has to provide some balance ;);

Balance

18-08-2021, 11:40 AM

Thanks for asking ... but - I am quite happy with these lock downs. It is so much quieter in the township and we have lots of work to do on our block.

Sorry if I don't join the FBU cheerleaders. I guess somebody has to provide some balance ;);

And for your provision of balance, we are grateful as it enabled some of us to pick up FBU last year at never to be repeated bargain basement prices.

Thanks, BP! :t_up:

Gunner

18-08-2021, 11:44 AM

Greekwatchdog

18-08-2021, 11:47 AM

Gunner

18-08-2021, 12:08 PM

So if you miss a deadline on a build and contractor has to have scaffolding up for xxx time there are costs associated with this which full liable of FBU. So they are pushing back on these as they were caught out on past with big dollars. There are many other reasons this is one....

I work for fletchers and a quantity surveyor. Retentions are there for the duration of the defect period for any remedial work required. Scaffolding in your example is not nessesarily part of that. It wasn't the retentions that caught them out it was the poor contract conditions. Type of contract and liquidated damages that hurt the most.

Greekwatchdog

18-08-2021, 12:12 PM

Same, depends on examples. We aren't allowed to do any jobs with these on. Paying for poor governance by previous board/management..

LaserEyeKiwi

18-08-2021, 06:36 PM

Excellent earnings result today - appreciating the nice dividend and share buyback amounting to a very significant total return for shareholders.

Soolaimon

19-08-2021, 09:40 AM

Excellent earnings result today - appreciating the nice dividend and share buyback amounting to a very significant total return for shareholders.

I agree but one has to wonder about Taylor's package of $6.8m (according to a Stuff article) Way over the top in my opinion.

Balance

19-08-2021, 10:06 AM

I agree but one has to wonder about Taylor's package of $6.8m (according to a Stuff article) Way over the top in my opinion.

I have no complaints about any CEO's package - as long as they deliver outstanding results and the package is linked to the results.

winner69

19-08-2021, 10:40 AM

Balance

19-08-2021, 10:51 AM

Balance said he would get big payout

Yup - recall posting that and am most happy with the sp more than doubling in the last 12 months.

Taylor gets a big payout and shareholders get an even bigger one - measured in the billions of dollars.

More!

nztx

19-08-2021, 04:23 PM

Yet another Uni Academic with too much spare time on their hands in Lock down wading in to make the news ? ;)

Haven't we seen this sort of thing before in an earlier lock-down ? ;)

value_investor

21-08-2021, 09:36 AM

I really liked the result, looks as though they have shed some of the legacy projects that weren't making any money and moved onto focus on their core business which they should be doing. Going into building houses and apartments at scale is where I think the opportunities can be. They are low margin, but at the volumes they can do, they can scale. Its hard to believe its taken this long to capitalise on the building boom that's taken place in the country from I'd say 2017 onwards.

I like the material repayments in the debt profile and the share buyback that is taking place. There also looks like there is a strong runway of growth going into the future which has just started. I'm still not sold on the management team completely due to the decisions they've made in the past of getting into some construction contracts they've lost money on.

I've been looking closely at the homes on Fletcher Living for a few months now and I'm surprised. Firstly, the going rates of these new builds, and secondly, how quickly they sell. Nothing really stays on there for longer than a month and the new supply gets gobbled up so quickly. Being at Level 4 however makes me wonder, how long it would take before it affects their business as whole. I'd say it would take at least a month at Level 4.

Disc: Not a holder but looking closely if it drops.

LaserEyeKiwi

21-08-2021, 10:34 AM

winner69

21-08-2021, 11:20 AM

Margin improvement has been key driver of earnings growth

F20 was a weird year so like what Fletcher's did let's compare things to F19

Sales are down 188m on F19 but EBIT is up 71m

less sales impact on EBIT was 14m (adverse) but that margin increase of 100bps improved EBIT by 85m

Still plenty of room for improvement I reckon ..... both sales growth and even higher margins

winner69

21-08-2021, 11:24 AM

Actually, the residential division was by far the highest margin part of the business in the last 12 months, with a 21% EBIT margin, and also they presumably are using product from their own building supplies and concrete divisions etc - adding even more to company economies of scale.

There was about $800m of sales between divisions

This gives an idea of where from to where to

LaserEyeKiwi

21-08-2021, 11:48 AM

There was about $800m of sales between divisions

This gives an idea of where from to where to

handy - thanks for sharing.

Southern Lad

21-08-2021, 05:25 PM

I note that FBU has used up its NZ tax losses and most of its prepaid tax asset (which stood at NZ$61m at June 2020) and the Investor Presentation states that they expect to impute the FY22 final dividend, so all things being equal the gross dividend yield will improve next year.

As the company has significant Australian businesses, they are unlikely to be able to attach full NZ imputation credits to future dividends paid, but even partial imputation credit cover will be a plus to NZ shareholders and also offshore shareholders due to the supplementary dividend regime.

Note 25 suggests they still have Australian tax losses with a carrying value (i.e. tax effect of the gross tax loss amount) of NZ$92m at June 21, so still some way away from paying tax again in Australia. According to Note 18 FBU does have a positive balance in its Australian franking account of NZ$35m, so they may have the ability to attach some franking credits to FY22 dividends from this existing balance.

In the past, FBU alternated between attaching franking credits and attaching imputation credits to dividends paid, so maybe the comment that they expect to impute the final FY22 dividend infers they will attach franking credits to the interim FY22 dividend? FBU previously explained that the alternating treatment was designed to maximise the benefit of the supplementary dividend regime for Australian shareholders.

sb9

26-08-2021, 10:27 AM

Didn't realise this has gone XD so quick, almost in a blink of an eye.

Jaa

09-09-2021, 07:24 PM

Anyone else worried that Fletcher's factories in Auckland are being allowed to reopen?

This is how COVID has spread overseas during supposedly strict lockdowns. Large, politically connected factories producing non-essential products lobby politicians and civil servants to re-open eroding social trust ("why can they open and we can't?"), cause clusters of new cases and delay or make impossible elimination. After long enough, everything is essential to someone.

Government lets factories return to unplug building supplies bottleneck (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126296951/government-lets-factories-return-to-unplug-building-supplies-bottleneck#comments)

Greekwatchdog

09-09-2021, 07:28 PM

Why? They are doing it based on protocols just like rest of NZ did safety under level 3. And lets not forget this is out because of Govt f**k up in MIQ and they still haven't found root cause.

Rawz

09-09-2021, 07:45 PM

bung5

10-09-2021, 09:18 AM

To industry!

stoploss

16-09-2021, 09:57 AM

I think it is well documented that we have a housing crisis with families sleeping in cars etc. Get the factories producing building products cranking!

We do have a supply issue imo. However the families in cars is not such a thing anymore.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018784185/housing-crisis-more-than-4-000-nz-children-living-in-motels

winner69

22-09-2021, 05:28 PM

Do Fletcher’s think the share price isn’t low enough yet to recommence buy back

Greekwatchdog

22-09-2021, 05:32 PM

I wonder if the 5 week lockdown has delayed given the cost of paying wages during the lockdown. Maybe they might reduce it too $200m? Are they allowed to do that?

Entrep

29-09-2021, 02:37 PM

This has come down quite a way from recent highs. Thoughts? My price alert went off and looking to buy.

Greekwatchdog

01-10-2021, 09:45 AM

Consents at Records..

Despite a nationwide lockdown residential consents set a new monthly record in August, finally topping October 1973.
Unsurprisingly, given the recent run of strong consents, 12-month rolling approvals (+24% yoy) and floor area consented
(+22% yoy) also hit new all time highs. Non-residential approvals also lifted in August after a softer period in the middle of
the year. Whilst consenting remained robust through lockdowns, the suspension of construction under Alert Level 4 (and to
a lesser extent Level 3 restrictions in Auckland) will mean that consents issued during lockdown added to the backlog of
work to be done, further elongating the cycle. Putting any material shortages and supply chain issues to one side, we expect
construction activity to have recovered strongly as restrictions were lifted.

Residential consents defy lockdowns
Residential consents carried on recent momentum in August to set a new monthly record of 52.5k (seasonally adjusted and
annualised) reported approvals, up +4.1% mom, +35.5% yoy. Detached dwellings were down -4.8% mom and up +35.5% yoy. High
density dwelling approvals, which can be volatile month to month, were +14.3% mom and +57.4% yoy. All regions experienced growth
in July, led by Canterbury (+61.1% yoy), Auckland (+55.4% yoy), and Waikato-Bay of Plenty (+34.1% yoy) whilst Wellington (+11.4%
yoy), Regional South Island (+16.0%) and Regional North Island (+18.4%) had slightly more subdued growth. 12 month-rolling floor
area consented, the best indicator of future residential activity, was up +22% yoy.

Non-residential retains strength
Non-residential consents were strong again in August after a softer June month with value/sqm +16.7%/+9.1% yoy. Health,
commercial, retail, industrial and office experienced yoy improvements in August whilst accommodation and education declined.
Non-residential approvals are lumpy by nature due to the relative size of projects, on a rolling 12 month non-residential value
consented was +14.7% yoy (and overtakes July for the second highest 12-month period on record) while area approved (sqm) was
down -1.7% yoy. Accommodation and retail were the only key sectors to see the value of consents decline on a 12-month rolling basis,
which is not surprising given the pandemic's impacts.

Hoop

01-10-2021, 10:58 AM

This has come down quite a way from recent highs. Thoughts? My price alert went off and looking to buy.

A late price drop off in Wall St has put downward pressure on the NZX and I suspect it to affect global markets as they open..Interesting to see FBU's price holding steady. Chartwise (reflecting trading behaviour) this steadiness with yesterdays uptick off the bottom of the slow stochastic indicator (short term indicator) gives trading confidence that the 7.00 support level may once again hold. If overwhelming selling pressure pulls the price back and breaks the 7.00 support it will put FBU"s Bull status under threat as the previous thought of a Bull market correction may be perceived now by investors as something more ominous such as a hind sighted view of a slow market cycle reversal to Bear Status.

Gee FBU has been a fanastic stock to have in a portfolio this last year..One can't complain being up 100%...eh.
Perhaps this rise could be seen as too fast and investors sees FBU having a well deserved breather..

As always time will tell.

13022

Entrep

01-10-2021, 08:33 PM

Thanks Hoop I am bidding support. Glad to know I hadn’t missed something. As you say let’s see.

Entrep

05-10-2021, 02:27 PM

Thanks Hoop I am bidding support. Glad to know I hadn’t missed something. As you say let’s see.

Bids hit, let's see where we close

winner69

05-10-2021, 03:32 PM

Share price below 7 bucks

Wasn't that long ago some said it's going to 8 bucks

Maybe they will think that is cheap enough to re-commence the share buyback

winner69

05-10-2021, 03:41 PM

Maybe it's headlines like this in NZ Herald causing the sell off

Building sector leading slump in business confidence - NZIER

Greekwatchdog

05-10-2021, 03:48 PM

LaserEyeKiwi

05-10-2021, 04:40 PM

Orr better be very careful tomorrow. The Govt and he may well derail the economy..Still heaps and heaps of work out there..Be an interesting ASM on the 19th. I wonder what the lockdown has cost them paying 100% of wages..

All of fletchers worksites were back to normal operation as of level 3 start, so lockdown expense would only be limited to level 4 weeks.

Greekwatchdog

05-10-2021, 04:42 PM

And Akl has a lot of manufacturing plants and sites that were not working + the goings on in Aust.

Greekwatchdog

07-10-2021, 10:16 AM

Buy Backs started..https://www.nzx.com/announcements/380557

RTM

07-10-2021, 10:33 AM

Share price below 7 bucks

Wasn't that long ago some said it's going to 8 bucks

Maybe they will think that is cheap enough to re-commence the share buyback

Good pick !

Waltzing

07-10-2021, 10:35 AM

Winner(n) , what metrics made you call this. Has been a good trade since GFC.

winner69

13-10-2021, 11:57 AM

Tracking the buyback but couldn't but notice that when FBU did a profit upgrade and announced the buy back back in May the share price was $7.22

Much the same as today ....hmmm

Greekwatchdog

13-10-2021, 12:09 PM

JohnnyTheHorse

13-10-2021, 12:20 PM

Buyback kicking in again around the $7 level suggests this will be a likely floor. Good buying around these levels in my opinion.

Disc: long term and swing position.

sb9

13-10-2021, 12:34 PM

Peaked at $7.99 2 months ago from memory then came Covid and higher interest rates ticking up. Building costs going up left right and center thou those costs are being passed on. Looking forward to update on Tuesday 19 Oct.

Agreed, second lockdown in Aug put a "spanner in the works" to use building terminology. But for that we could've been looking at 8 handle by now.

peat

19-10-2021, 10:25 AM

Trading either side of the New Zealand lockdowns has been very solid, and at levels above the prior
year.

peat

19-10-2021, 03:44 PM

It's facing this 7.30 resistance again
13125
Its beginning to look like 6.90 was a significant low with 7 now being major support.

Maybe it can break through the green dotted line this time and R can become S.

Greekwatchdog

20-10-2021, 07:33 AM

For Bar latest update this morning. Target $8.20
OUTPERFORM

Fletcher Building (FBU) has provided a trading update and outlook commentary at its annual shareholder meeting (ASM).
While no quantitative FY22 guidance was provided, commentary highlighted, 1) a strong rebound out of Level 4 restrictions
with NZ volumes ahead of last year despite ongoing Level 3 restrictions in Auckland, and 2) only a slightly negative overall
impact from lockdowns in Australia. We have made minor adjustments to our forecasts with a longer than expected period
of elevated restrictions in NZ offset by a stronger than expected rebound in activity, particularly in Auckland which remains
at Level 3. Given the robust outlook we continue to see value at current levels. OUTPERFORM.
What's changed?

Lockdowns just a blip
Whilst 1Q22 has been impacted by restrictions across both side of the Tasman, FBU has seen a strong bounce back in activity to levels
higher than the prior year as restrictions have eased in NZ. While there is clearly some catch-up work post lockdown the industry is
operating at a higher than expected level, particularly given Auckland remains in Level 3. As such FBU expects volumes for the balance
of the year to be above last year assuming no adverse changes to alert levels. In Australia, the net impact of lockdowns has slightly
subdued trading and FBU expects activity to lift as restrictions are eased in Victoria and New South Wales. While 1H22 group EBIT
margin will clearly be lockdown impacted, FBU expects 2H22 will show progress towards its FY23 target of 10%.
First half impact but solid growth going forward
We are forecasting 1H22 EBIT of NZ$304m down -6% on the prior year. We expect an impact across all divisions but slightly larger
declines in building products reflecting shutdown and restart costs of major manufacturing plants. We expect a stronger 2H22 with
EBIT +10% on the prior year. FBU also highlighted that it has been able to effectively manage rising input costs and supply chain
disruptions in FY22 thus far, suggesting price increases are sticking and the margin headwind seen in recent periods is abating.
Remains attractive

We continue to view FBU as attractive at current levels for a number of reasons; (1) FBU is trading on undemanding multiples (12m
fwd EV/EBIT of 11.2x and 12m fwd PE of 13.6x), (2) the outlook for construction activity remains strong, and (3) FBU's balance sheet
is in good shape. The recent resumption of FBU’s NZ$300m buyback (c.NZ$275m to complete) highlights management’s confidence
in the outlook, in our view

peat

20-10-2021, 12:25 PM

Maybe it can break through the green dotted line this time and R can become S.

You know you can you know you can

peat

20-10-2021, 03:59 PM

not today it seems - poked head above but then we got the Aussie smackdown.

13129

FrankF

01-11-2021, 10:25 PM

It appears still a long way to get to $8.20 (For Barr's target)...:(

For Bar latest update this morning. Target $8.20
OUTPERFORM

Fletcher Building (FBU) has provided a trading update and outlook commentary at its annual shareholder meeting (ASM).
While no quantitative FY22 guidance was provided, commentary highlighted, 1) a strong rebound out of Level 4 restrictions
with NZ volumes ahead of last year despite ongoing Level 3 restrictions in Auckland, and 2) only a slightly negative overall
impact from lockdowns in Australia. We have made minor adjustments to our forecasts with a longer than expected period
of elevated restrictions in NZ offset by a stronger than expected rebound in activity, particularly in Auckland which remains
at Level 3. Given the robust outlook we continue to see value at current levels. OUTPERFORM.
What's changed?

Lockdowns just a blip
Whilst 1Q22 has been impacted by restrictions across both side of the Tasman, FBU has seen a strong bounce back in activity to levels
higher than the prior year as restrictions have eased in NZ. While there is clearly some catch-up work post lockdown the industry is
operating at a higher than expected level, particularly given Auckland remains in Level 3. As such FBU expects volumes for the balance
of the year to be above last year assuming no adverse changes to alert levels. In Australia, the net impact of lockdowns has slightly
subdued trading and FBU expects activity to lift as restrictions are eased in Victoria and New South Wales. While 1H22 group EBIT
margin will clearly be lockdown impacted, FBU expects 2H22 will show progress towards its FY23 target of 10%.
First half impact but solid growth going forward
We are forecasting 1H22 EBIT of NZ$304m down -6% on the prior year. We expect an impact across all divisions but slightly larger
declines in building products reflecting shutdown and restart costs of major manufacturing plants. We expect a stronger 2H22 with
EBIT +10% on the prior year. FBU also highlighted that it has been able to effectively manage rising input costs and supply chain
disruptions in FY22 thus far, suggesting price increases are sticking and the margin headwind seen in recent periods is abating.
Remains attractive

We continue to view FBU as attractive at current levels for a number of reasons; (1) FBU is trading on undemanding multiples (12m
fwd EV/EBIT of 11.2x and 12m fwd PE of 13.6x), (2) the outlook for construction activity remains strong, and (3) FBU's balance sheet
is in good shape. The recent resumption of FBU’s NZ$300m buyback (c.NZ$275m to complete) highlights management’s confidence
in the outlook, in our view

winner69

02-11-2021, 11:43 AM

New residential Building consents up 25% in 12 months to September …..non-residential up 10%

Plenty of work and stuff needed …..Fletcher’s looking good

Rawz

18-11-2021, 04:23 PM

FBU sp looking not so good.

Green squiggly line going past red squiggly line. :mellow:

Sideshow Bob

18-11-2021, 04:43 PM

FBU sp looking not so good.

Green squiggly line going past red squiggly line. :mellow:

And that is with them buying some of their own shares.

BlackPeter

19-11-2021, 08:44 AM

FBU sp looking not so good.

Green squiggly line going past red squiggly line. :mellow:

I guess it depends on your colour scheme ... however if you use green for the MA50 and red for the MA200 (that's often the default), there is still a long way to go to the cross of death.

Share price is flirting with the MA200 - this is correct, but it is not really "confirmed" below - might nicely bounce back from the MA200 ... this could well be a buying opportunity.

Anyway - DYOR;

Discl: holding and not worried;

JohnnyTheHorse

19-11-2021, 08:57 AM

Flirting with the strong area of support around AU$6.65. The weakness has really surprised me, especially given the buyback. Technicals are healthy on a monthly chart, but a bit ugly of daily and weekly.

Greekwatchdog

19-11-2021, 08:57 AM

Market is unsure how to play this. I suspect we might need some sort of FY guidance so investors are aware whats happening. What I do no is the housing Boom hasn't slowed. A number of divisions have there order books full up into August next year and it still continues to pour in.

sb9

19-11-2021, 09:00 AM

Might see an upgrade to earning soon, going by what STU put out this morning.

winner69

23-11-2021, 04:38 PM

Govt reckon the likes of Fletcher's are ripping NZers off so going to have another industry review

They be better off not wasting time and money and putting energy into other things

Been through this a few times now ..... nothing will change

NZ is such a small company and as such always going to 'pay' more than most of the world

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fletcher-buildings-94-wallboard-share-cited-in-commerce-commission-probe-analysis/FSNXMUGWVKZLEKKG6CY6LHZFOI/
Prob paywalled

Greekwatchdog

23-11-2021, 04:48 PM

W69, I read that. They also compare us to Aust. Why? Aussie homes are simpler In Aust for windows you get xx amount sizes. In NZ its like everything is unique unless you are building for a client who has same size throughout their project. Retirement Village sort of thing. Its nothing more than a Govt blame game. New house prices will jump next year with extra Sick Leave and Annual Holiday included on rising costs on everything.

BlackPeter

23-11-2021, 05:26 PM

A fair point. NZ Building industry is probably one of the least efficient in the world given the desire to avoid any standardisation.

Can't agree however that this is the only reason for the stellar costs of building materials here in NZ.

When we arrived some 26 years back from Europe I found that building materials like nails, joiners and even paint was 50 to 100% more expensive than buying it in a German building market. Timber was at least twice the comparable price to coming from a German sawmill, and this despite the European timber being of much superior quality. They sell you timber in Europe which keeps in shape, even if you don't immediately use it.

The NZ building industry produces unbelievable low quality for an eye-watering high price - and the consumers, who often don't know better (and have as well little options) have no other choice than feeding a lazy and inept duopoly ...