View Full Version : GNX - Genex Power
I thought it deserves its own thread as the coming weeks will be interesting as the feasibility study for its pumped hydro power station and a bigger solar farm will be released.
In summary:
Genex Power is an Australian public company, focused on the production and storage of renewable energy. Genex is currently developing two innovative clean projects located in Northern Queensland, which will aim to deliver attractive commercial returns for its shareholders. http://www.genexpower.com.au/
Project One: The Kidston Solar Project
(a) Phase one of the project will have a capacity production of up to 50MW. GNX has secured an $8.85 million grant from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, and a 20 year power purchase agreement from the Queensland government (GNX is targeting financial close on the solar project in November 2016, with first operations in Q4 2017). QLD Government has indicated that prices of $80-100/MWh were acceptable. The mid-point of this price range would result in the project generating close to $13m pa of revenue. GNX has selected First Solar as its supplier of PV modules.
Morgans summarized as follows "Given the solar project has secured a long-term government-backed revenue stream, we expect a high proportion of the construction costs may be funded by project finance debt (we assume >$100m). This gearing, combined with the ARENA grant, should minimise equity funding requirements. Our project modelling assumes only $10m of an estimated $126m construction cost (cost sourced from ARENA) will be funded by equity. If GNX sells down an equity interest in the project, there may be no need for a capital raising by GNX to fund the equity requirement (albeit GNX's share of the project will be diluted). GNX is in discussions with potential investors in the project."
(b) Phase two of the project will increase this total nameplate capacity up to 150MW.
Project Two: The Kidston Pumped Storage Hydro Project
(a) Upon completion, this project will have a total capacity of 1,500MWh to 2,250MWh.
That study, also supported by a grant from ARENA, is expected to pave the way for Genex to seek funding which will also include some 180kms of transmission. First production from this project is targeted for 2019
As I said the next few weeks will be interesting. I've accumulated below its 20c IPO price (current SP 22.5c). Yesterday it had it's highest turnover of shares ever with an intraday increase of +15.4%. Not sure yet whether this is a whisper of confidence about the pumped hydro storage project.
Another suprising hig volume day +11.1% with a SP of 25c its all time highest. Spidey senses tell me that a positive report is expected.
Maybe of interest. In 2015 only 14.6% of all energy production in Australia was renewable. By contrast New Zealand's in 2014 was nearly 80%. There's some catching up to do by the Aussies.
Joshuatree
01-10-2016, 12:23 AM
They don't have the Hydro we are blessed with.
They don't have the Hydro we are blessed with.
True but lots more sun ;)
Article of interest:
Queensland lays out three “cost neutral” paths to 50% renewables
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/queensland-lays-out-three-cost-neutral-paths-to-50-renewables-48174
Joshuatree
13-10-2016, 10:45 PM
Good read thanks silu. Its rapidly becoming accepted globally that we have to act now ., decisively, and fast so i believe the emissions cut by 45% is just the beginning.
"Indeed, the only scenario where coal generation is forced out is if the federal government pushes a national scheme that aims to cut emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 – the level considered by most as the bare minimum needed by Australia to meet its fair share of the Paris climate deal. In this scenario, about 1,500MW of coal-fired capacity might be forced to retire."
Thanks for dej for sharing this on HC.
https://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network124800.html
Finance News Network transcription of Genex Power Ltd (ASX:GNX) discussion on its conversion of a former Queensland gold mine into an advanced hydro project backed by the Queensland government.
Joshuatree
04-11-2016, 09:34 AM
Good point re the power of the sun up there silu.Do you and den have price targets for GNX;im having difficulty in valuing it(pretty useless at that to be honest).?
Good point re the power of the sun up there silu.Do you and den have price targets for GNX;im having difficulty in valuing it(pretty useless at that to be honest).?
I'm at work so don't have my file on me but I do believe that within 3 years a MC of $75-$100m (if they continue to tick off their milestones as they have done so far) could be a fair valuation which would mean a SP of around 65c (current SP 23.5c).
Joshuatree
04-11-2016, 10:55 AM
Thanks for that silu lots to like here. And sorry its dej not den.
The Feasibility study for the large pumped hydro project has been concluded.
Highlights are as follows:
250MW generation capacity with 6 hours continous generation
1,500MW storage capacity
and more on the main announcement http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01799665
Management points out that the energy market in Australia is in an intense transition period to divest from fossil fuel generation to renewable generation and have received significant interest from funding and financing entities. The obviously want to get on board early.
All in all great news. I for one will top up today hopefully under 25c.
My thoughts, as seen on HC:
Main positive points from me:
- We have a TFS for the pumped hydro. These reports are hard to complete and with such a small team at Genex I am impressed by their work.
Main negative points for me:
- Optimized model gives reduction from 450MW installed capacity to 250MW. Originally, back when the prospectus was filed, they stated an installed capacity of 330MW between the two existing pits. Then they said they can get 450MW from a turkeys nest to lower pit arrangement. The additional capital cost of the turkeys nest was balanced with the additional capacity. Now we have a turkeys nest with 250MW capacity. So additional capital cost and less capacity.
- As per a snapshot of timelines from a presentation (will try find link if anyone is interested) the timeline for financial close was Q1 2017 and this is now Q4 2017. That's a huge discrepancy.
- Not sure if the TFS will pass off as a BFS. The BFS for the Pumped Hydro project, as per same presentation from above, was meant to be completed in Q3 2016. Given you need capital cost estimates for a BFS, and the capital cost estimates from this announcement state they will continue into Q1 and Q2 of 2017, then the BFS is now going to be around the same sized discrepancy as the financial close.
What I took from this announcement is that the PHS project has been delayed approximately 6 - 12 months. (Side note, I realise projects are always delivered later than planned and usually cost more).
Would love to have some discussion regarding some of the points above.
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-completion-of-kidston-hydro-technical-feasibility-study.3025241/#post-20440982
Jeez that double up on boards is confusing ;) Thanks for your points Dej. I will look into them a little closer. Just saw that most of my order at 24c got filled now. I have now a pretty sizeable (relativ to portfolio) parcel of shares. I am highly aware that any big project generally is plagued with delays, cost overruns and funding amongst other things. However I believe that GNX is well placed to negotiate the best possible terms for financing.
Been too busy reading Twitter about the US elections so in the meantime an article of interest
Kidston solar and pumped hydro plant clears another hurdle
http://reneweconomy.com.au/kidston-solar-and-pumped-hydro-plant-clears-another-hurdle-96381/
A research note from Canaccord suggest a 12 month target for GNX of 75c and a potential valuation of $1.69 (current 26.5c). It seems a bit high to me but I would certainly be happy if it were true. I usually try to value companies on a minimum earnings multiple and if it still makes me money I will invest. The market itself then decides what it thinks it is worth for the added bonus.
Their key risk seems to be that it needs to raise more equity funds if debt funding or equity partners are not forthcoming.
Personally I think that they have scaled down the project from their IPO prospectus as not to have this problem. I am sure that management has negotiated well in advance about this and amended their feasability study for the pumped hydro project accordingly. Well at least I hope they had this kind of foresight as they do pay themselves handsomly.
http://www.genexpower.com.au/uploads/6/6/1/2/6612684/canaccord_genuity_-_genex_power_-_nov_2016.pdf
I have e-mailed the Executive Director Simon Kidston what he believes the keys to driving equity values are. His reply word for word is as follows:
__________________________________________________ _______________________________
Thanks for your feedback. Capex is important, however the key to driving equity value is order is:
- Revenue contracts. The Qld government awarded Genex a really good contract for the solar project. We anticipate Government or a major energy retailer will consider something similar for the hydro. If we achieve that, we anticipate share price re-rating because it will enable majority of capital costs to be debt funded
- Grant funding. ARENA focus now is storage , so we hope to secure grant for the hydro project
- Minimising equity dilution by finding the right project partner to fund capex
- Capex - always an important issue. We are comfortable with the capex but we decided to approach the market to get proper tender pricing (not just an estimate from a consultant)
Michael Addison and I are significant shareholders, so we are very focused on delivering this project in a way that makes shareholders money.
cheers
Simon
<end of reply>
Highlights from todays announcement:
Project finance credit approval received for up to AUD$110 million
ARENA grant funding agreement executed
Project construction program to commence
On target for first generation from Kidston Solar in Q4 2017
Joshuatree
02-12-2016, 11:35 AM
Thanks silu, esp for the previous post.
And with that lovely opening GNX has become my second biggest shareholding across all markets. Long may it continue.
And with that lovely opening GNX has become my second biggest shareholding across all markets. Long may it continue.
Jinx - It is my second largest as well.
Just the beginning!
Trading Halt for a material capital raise. Must be for the Pumped Hydro project?
Rawiri
01-02-2017, 01:00 PM
To reach financial close on Kidston Solar Project Phase One 50MW (KSP1)
• To continue the development of the Kidston 250MW Pumped Storage Hydro Project (“KPSHP”)
• To advance the development of the Kidston Phase Two Solar Project (“KSP2”)
• To provide general working capital"
Gawd I'm miffed about this capital raising. Timing, pricing. How on earth did they do another one at a much bigger discount than the one just done in December? I would have expected one capital raise for each stage of their 3 projects.
Don't get me wrong - over the long run I'm sure us holders will be richly rewarded - but it is a really bad look for those who bought this on IPO and/or have participated in December's raise.
Reply from Simon Kidston about my e-mail:
I understand, the timing and pricing is regrettable. The background is we pushed very hard to finalise the key contracts and lending documents prior to Christmas , but unfortunately we were not able to finalise them until very recently. In the meantime, the bond rate / interest rates have increased sharply . By way of example, in early December, the rate to hedge our debt for 10 years was 4.1%. Today the same 10 year hedge is 4.7%. The impact is less project debt which means more equity. We aim for Financial Close (the time we draw on the debt and hedge the rates) late next week . However, on a positive note, work has commenced on site and so there is no delay to our construction timetable
regards
Simon Kidston | Executive Director
Joshuatree
03-02-2017, 12:30 PM
$5 mill to Instos and $3 mill offered to shareholders @ 16c. As Dej says a 55% discount over 2 months. SPP in Dec was at 27c and s/p dropped to 22c. Still watching from the side atp but i guess the s/p may well drop close to 16c.Dilution plus.
NZSilver
12-02-2017, 11:16 AM
Hi Silu and others,
I've had GNX on my watchlist for a while now and followed this thread from time to time. I'm finally having a good look at the company. I would be interested in your numbers, in particular the $100 Million debt, how do they plan to pay this off? do you know the interest charges? do you have details about the lending - I cant find much.
According to my conservative calculations revenue from solar will be between 10-12 million/year, with Op expenses of 2.3 million/year, however there will be around 3-4 million of other expenses as the continue to work on the hydro/ second solar (before CAPEX)
Thanks
Matt
NZSilver
12-02-2017, 11:17 AM
Of interest, here is where I got some numbers from http://reneweconomy.com.au/large-scale-solar-costs-near-parity-with-wind-energy-in-australia-54829/
Hi NZSilver,
Sorry only got limited time today. Have you had a chance to read the Cannacord Research http://www.genexpower.com.au/uploads/6/6/1/2/6612684/canaccord_genuity_-_genex_power_-_nov_2016.pdf
Lots of your questions are answered in their notes.
NZSilver
13-02-2017, 11:46 AM
Thanks Silu, that was useful. Also one of my questions was where they would find water to re-fill their reservoir - I read through prospectus and it was interesting to read the dam that has a gravity feed line and the water rights. It would be interesting to have a bit more detail why they went for the 250MW capacity vs greater.
NZSilver
13-02-2017, 01:12 PM
Here's a recent interview i found during my research, nothing that hasn't been released - however sounds like they will look for partner for hydro project.
https://www.facebook.com/genexpowerlimited/videos/1876503145919496/
NZSilver
15-02-2017, 09:19 AM
Back up over 20c, I took a small position at 18c. If management keeps moving projects along and achieving goal, I think this will have good appreciation in sp
Welcome on board NZSilver. After my initial upset about their latest CR I've calmed down and remembered that this is a longterm project that will give me happy returns.
NZSilver
15-02-2017, 01:57 PM
A bit more interest in last few days, good to have the solar locked in - basically that alone justifying current market cap.
NZSilver
17-02-2017, 01:04 PM
Back to 23c, nice little rise post cap raise.
Everything is going as planned with the construction of the 50MW solar farm.
They also did their first "back test" modelling exercise to determine potential revenues and EBITDA to come up with a potentital of up to A$16.8m revenue and A$15.2m EBITDA which would make the current share price still quite cheap.
Special Report: Renewables by under the radar report:
http://www.genexpower.com.au/uploads/6/6/1/2/6612684/under_the_radar_report_-_20.04.17.pdf
GNX has released some very positive news over the last few weeks most importantly the decision by QLD government to make Kidston a Critical Infrastructure project. This is of huge importance as it makes debt financing so much easier.
Genex is hoping to begin construction of the bigger solar and storage component in 2018, which would cost a combined $750 million. NAIF is considering providing debt facilities at a discounted rate, in the same way that the Clean Energy Finance Corporation does. While the ASX announcement did not reveal the figure, it is understood Genex aims to secure about $200-300 million of the $5 billion NAIF funding pool.
Found on HC. Apparently a Labor MP has prematurely announced what I hope to be announced soon:
First NAIF project to be announced - at last!
Download PDFDownload PDF
THE HON JASON CLARE MP SHADOW MINISTER FOR TRADE AND INVESTMENT SHADOW MINISTER FOR RESOURCES AND NORTHERN AUSTRALIA MEMBER FOR BLAXLAND
CATHY O’TOOLE MEMBER FOR HERBET
FIRST NAIF PROJECT TO BE ANNOUNCED - AT LAST!
Federal Labor has called on the Federal Government to announce the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility’s rumoured decision to fund Genex - a hydro and solar power project located near Townsville.
Word on the street is that the Federal Government has finally made a decision to spend some of the $5 billion it earmarked to invest in job-generating infrastructure for Northern Australia on the Genex project.
This will be the first funding decision made by the NAIF more than two years after it was established.
If the NAIF has made a decision, the Federal Government should announce the funding immediately so it can be invested in this job-generating infrastructure.
Genex has been strongly supported by Member for Herbert Cathy O’Toole and the State Labor Government.
The Genex project will create jobs and boost energy supply to help put downward pressure on power prices for North Queensland.
Construction on the project is already underway and Labor calls on the Federal Government to release the funding immediately to support badly-needed jobs for North Queensland.
The Federal Government’s announcement will follow Labor’s commitment to raise the Burdekin Dam Wall to boost power supply and secure Townsville’s water supply.
Labor welcomes investment in infrastructure for the North.
The North has been waiting for two years for the Government to spend this money. Make the announcement and get on with helping to create jobs for North Queensland.
MONDAY, 17 JULY 2017
MEDIA CONTACTS: KORENA FLANAGAN (CLARE) 0418 251 316 JESSICA NAUNTON (OTOOLE) 0408 192 255
duncan22
22-07-2017, 12:08 PM
Found on HC. Apparently a Labor MP has prematurely announced what I hope to be announced soon:
First NAIF project to be announced - at last!
Download PDFDownload PDF
THE HON JASON CLARE MP SHADOW MINISTER FOR TRADE AND INVESTMENT SHADOW MINISTER FOR RESOURCES AND NORTHERN AUSTRALIA MEMBER FOR BLAXLAND
CATHY O’TOOLE MEMBER FOR HERBET
FIRST NAIF PROJECT TO BE ANNOUNCED - AT LAST!
Federal Labor has called on the Federal Government to announce the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility’s rumoured decision to fund Genex - a hydro and solar power project located near Townsville.
Word on the street is that the Federal Government has finally made a decision to spend some of the $5 billion it earmarked to invest in job-generating infrastructure for Northern Australia on the Genex project.
This will be the first funding decision made by the NAIF more than two years after it was established.
If the NAIF has made a decision, the Federal Government should announce the funding immediately so it can be invested in this job-generating infrastructure.
Genex has been strongly supported by Member for Herbert Cathy O’Toole and the State Labor Government.
The Genex project will create jobs and boost energy supply to help put downward pressure on power prices for North Queensland.
Construction on the project is already underway and Labor calls on the Federal Government to release the funding immediately to support badly-needed jobs for North Queensland.
The Federal Government’s announcement will follow Labor’s commitment to raise the Burdekin Dam Wall to boost power supply and secure Townsville’s water supply.
Labor welcomes investment in infrastructure for the North.
The North has been waiting for two years for the Government to spend this money. Make the announcement and get on with helping to create jobs for North Queensland.
MONDAY, 17 JULY 2017
MEDIA CONTACTS: KORENA FLANAGAN (CLARE) 0418 251 316 JESSICA NAUNTON (OTOOLE) 0408 192 255
Pretty weird release from Cathy O'Toole - if she'd got word they had been selected surely she wouldn't put out an announcement telling them to hurry up and announce? I don't see the point of it - no difference to her if they announce this week or next as long as it goes through? Unless she wants her name everywhere when the announcement does come out.
I hold GNX and its in my top 3 holdings, hasn't taken a step wrong since IPO, just ticking the boxes off one by one. Would look to top up but too much of my overall holding already - still have loyalty options to cash in next year.
For those who like to read research reports:
Euroz Initiation with a price target of 35c http://www.genexpower.com.au/uploads/6/6/1/2/6612684/gnx_initiation_of_coverage_24jul17.pdf
Cannacord with a price target of 57c (de-risked $1) http://canaccordgenuity.us9.list-ma...2e669cc62e50781280&id=c4922d8d91&e=c531b2d895
Carpenterjoe
19-08-2017, 07:52 AM
Nice announcement yesterday Powerlink Qld signing a Binding Heads to build the 150mil transmission line.
Recently dipped a small toe in. Definitely paid a premium, but will look to accumulate over the next few years.
.
About everything you want to know about Genex's Kidston projects in one handy video:
https://youtu.be/3_ZjC2njHsU
Great announcement today regarding optimized Feasibility Study for their Pumped Hydro project.
Optimized Pumped Hydro for 8 hours continuous generation capability for over 2,0000 MWh.
Construction time frame reduced by 6 months
Basically gave it the all go for financial close in 2018
Joshuatree
20-10-2017, 11:22 AM
How about the NAIF funding GNX is waiting on and govt dropping renewable targets silu? Ive been burnt before with politics destroying share value.
Yeah politics and what not. Always dangerous to take anything as granted. However despite the Turnbull's government New National Energy Guarantee I don't think this will have any impact on Genex's project. Turnbull himself is a big fan of Pumped Hydro Storage (storage being the key word here).
Here some quotes from the following article: Australia's Experts Weigh In On Turnbull's National Energy Guarantee
https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2017/10/australias-experts-weigh-in-on-turnbulls-national-energy-guarantee/
"It is likely that renewables plus pumped hydro and battery technologies will be at the heart of our future electricity system. The government’s proposal, if well calibrated, could help to facilitate a transition to this system of the future."
"As the Prime Minister points out, pumped hydro storage (including Snowy 2.0) is highly effective and cost competitive. Pumped hydro can be built fast enough to stabilise any amount of solar and wind at lower overall cost than any fossil fuel alternative."
Simon Kidston & Mark Bailey (QLD Energy Minister) were guests on ABC Radio yesterday http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/old-gold-mine-to-renewable-energy-hub-in-far-north-qld/9064878
Mark Bailey reiterated his goal of turning 50% of QLD's energy production to come from renewables by 2030 and Simon even went as far as saying that the new NEG helps GNX's Pumped Hydro project
Yes I am still fairly confident that NAIF funding will come through.
Joshuatree
20-10-2017, 10:44 PM
Thanks silu , i appreciate the details, your opinions and the links.
6% rise in s/p today , heres the link to todays announcement if anyone is int.
Pumped Storage Hydro Update - Feasibility Optimisation (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/3769470/)
GNX now at the conservative value I've calculated for Solar Stage 1. Any price up from now would indicate future value from Hydro and Solar Stage 2. Expecting financial close early in the new year and a capital raise which I expect to be around $30mil. They are kicking their goals so to speak and I'm expecting a round of publicity when Solar Stage 1 will be connected and starts humming along.
Article of Interest:
Revenue Maximisation of the Operation of a Hybrid Large-Scale Solar PV and Pumped Hydro System in Australia
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/revenue-maximisation-operation-hybrid-large-scale-solar-spencer/?trackingId=fwZf%2F2FxK2rj4WRbrhKKQw%3D%3D
Another important milestone has been ticked off today. Not long until power generated by Solar Stage 1 will be dispatched into the grid.
All-time high close of 36c today. Very happy with the return of my largest investment.
Genex is starting to generate revenue!! A great step for the company and so far they have been delivering on their promises. 2018 will be an even more exciting year with the hopefully financial close of the Pumped Hydro project. In the meantime very happy with my +108%
Genex is starting to generate revenue!! A great step for the company and so far they have been delivering on their promises. 2018 will be an even more exciting year with the hopefully financial close of the Pumped Hydro project. In the meantime very happy with my +108%
We have been some of the most vocal supporters of them! Glad to see it actually all up and running - bring on stage 2!! This is a prime difference of capital actually making a difference compared to some of the shell companies that just pay director fees with capital.
Article of Interest:
http://reneweconomy.com.au/kidston-solar-farm-lays-case-going-merchant-84317/
Giles Parkinson
Kidston solar farm lays out case for "going merchant"
It is rare to get an insight into the actual financial mechanics of Australia’s solar farms, given so few have actually finished construction, but the latest update from Genex Power, the owners of the new 50MW Kidston solar farm, makes for interesting reading.
It underlines why some developers and investors in Australia are prepared to take the risk on “going merchant” – in other words, selling the output of the electricity and large-scale renewable energy certificates into the spot market, rather than contracting to a third party.
Most large-scale solar and wind developers are going the contracting route – simply because of the scale of the investment.
Projects such as the Stockyard Hill, Murra Warra, Silverton and Cooper’s Gap wind farms are selling both the electricity and LGCs for a combined package of $60/MWh, or even less. That’s much lower than recent wholesale prices, and indicates zero value on the subsidy.
Those brave enough, or with the access to finance, are going the merchant route – which offers the prospect of big returns, at least for the current and near future years when wholesale prices and LGC prices are set to remain high.
The early returns for the Kidston solar plant indicate how. It is not yet at full capacity, but its early output since it began generation in December indicates a healthy return.
9590
In March, for instance, actual and anticipated revenue till the end of the month is around $150/MWh, likely split around 50/50 between wholesale price and LGC prices.
(And this is despite the government order to state-owned generators to keep a lid on wholesale prices).
Genex director Simon Kidston also said that the solar farm is so far performing ahead of expectations and beating its anticipated “capacity factor” of 33 per cent. It is using First Solar Series 4 panels, a single axis tracking system from NextTracker, and SMA inverters.
This revenue bonus will not last, however.
The Kidston solar farm has so far installed around 45MW, but once it is fully complete – expected around July – a power purchase agreement with Queensland comes into force.
This will mean it will deliver output to Queensland under a “contract for difference” that includes an undisclosed floor price, while the LGCs are surrendered at no cost to the government.
Genex will then embark on the next stages of it Kidston project, including another 270MW of solar and a 250MW pumped hydro facility, located in the neighbouring abandoned gold mine of the same name, with around 10 hours of storage.
Genex says it is actively talking to other parties about financing for those projects.
Other solar farms are also going down the merchant route, but even if they can cash in on high wholesale prices and high LGC prices this year and next, the party won’t last long.
Wholesale prices are tipped to fall – some say dramatically, others say not quite so much – as the current boom in wind and solar farm construction delivers completed output, and increased generation, to the grid.
Also, as the large scale renewable energy target of 33,000MWh gets closer to being met, then the high prices that results from the three-year investment drought caused by the Coalition’s review of climate and energy policies, will quickly subside.
Estimates of the price of LGCs between 2020 and 2030 differ. Some say the price could be close to zero, but analysts and developers say that any price signal is likely to be low.
That, of course, is yet to be taken into account from the absurd predictions from the likes of the Institute of Public Affairs and the Murdoch media that continue to use a $60 billion figure to describe the cost of subsidies from the RET.
The IPA/Murdoch media figure dials in an estimated cost of around $80/MWh for each renewable energy certificate generated over the length of the scheme, all the way out to 2030. And that assumption is patently ridiculous and wrong.
Genex just announced that they have secured the exclusive option to develop a wind project at Kidston of up to 150MW.
This is no one trick pony. Management has also mentioned now several times that they are looking at additional projects.
Very informative interview with Simon Kidston about their Renewable Energy Hub. Looks as us investors can expect financial close on the Pumped Hydro and additional Solar within the next 4-6 weeks. Lots of points covered here for investors:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/podcast/energy-insiders-podcast-june-5/?utm_source=RE+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=65b0d9dc7f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_06_04_08_23&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_46a1943223-65b0d9dc7f-40405677
Not that I was worried too much but finally NAIF (Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility) has provided Genex with an indicative term sheet for up to $516m of concessional debt funding for the Pumped Hydro project.
If you want to read more here:
The listed company Genex has been told by the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF) that it could receive $516 million in concessional finance for its world-leading solar and pumped hydro storage project in north Queensland.
The project – the first of its scale to combine solar and pumped hydro – will be located in the former Kidston gold mine, where water will be stored in disused pits, providing 250MW of capacity and up to eight hours storage.
This will be combined with up to 270MW of large scale solar – on top of the 50MW already built – and possibly another 150MW of wind, creating a large scale renewable energy hub that is fully dispatchable, or even what some like to call “base-load”.
NAIF has come under intense scrutiny – mostly for its consideration of funding for the controversial Adani coal project, but also because in three years it has made only a few small scale commitments.
The $516 million loan it is making to Genex is for a term of 20 years at concessional interest rates, and will account for the bulk of the project debt funding.
“This is a significant milestone in the development of the project,” the company says.
James Harding, the CEO of Genex, said final details of the loan, and the rate to be charged, would be negotiated over coming months, with financial closure expected laster this year.
Laurie Walker, the CEO of NAIF, said the “indication of this support” will assist Genex to advance its discussions with other project counterparties and to “prove up” the Project fundamentals.
“This is a demonstration of how NAIF can work with stakeholders to help them understand how its concessional financing can support the development of a project which has the potential to provide substantial benefits to Northern Australia.
“NAIF sees the Project as important for the transition of the market to lower emission renewable energy sources, and the board’s preparedness to consider a capital commitment of the size referred to in this announcement reflects the alignment of this type of project with NAIF’s objective to contribute to the transformation of Northern Australia through infrastructure development.”
The loan is subject to a number of conditions and customary terms for a project financing term sheet, including:
negotiating offtake arrangements and grid connection for energy and dispatch rights for the Project to the satisfaction of NAIF;
concluding a cost benefit analysis in accordance with the provisions of the NAIF Investment Mandate, which will be important in determining the level of concessionality that NAIF can offer the Project;
finalising terms for senior debt funding;
securing the balance of equity funding from an acceptable equity partner;
due diligence on a range ofpProject issues;
negotiation and execution of project and facility documentation; and
final NAIF credit approval and Board Investment Decision.
PM Turnbull gives Genex a shoutout about 21 minutes into this speech:
https://www.news.com.au/video/id-5348771529001-5807794659001/The-problem-is-clear--energy-is-too-expensive--Turnbull
NZSilver
04-09-2018, 06:10 AM
Silu, are you still in this?
Silu, are you still in this?
Yes still in this. Haven't sold or added anything as I'm waiting on the two big announcements we've been promised by the end of the year. One is the major off-take agreement with a QLD energy provider and financial close on its Stage 2 projects. And you?
For those interested - I expect that 80% of the total project costs (about A$516m) comes from the NAIF (Northern Australia Infrastructure Fund) at very favourable rates (interest <4% & long tenor +20y).
GENEX ACQUIRES 50MW JEMALONG SOLAR PROJECT IN NSW
Genex Power Limited (ASX: GNX) (Genex or Company) is pleased to announce that it has today entered into a Sale and Purchase Agreement for the acquisition of the 50MW Jemalong Solar Project development (JSP or Project), located near Forbes in the central west region of NSW (the Acquisition).
The Acquisition is complementary to Genex’s existing solar and hydro power projects in North Queensland and reflects the Company’s aim to become one of the market leaders in renewable energy and storage development. Genex’s longer-term strategy is to expand its portfolio of assets and diversify into other regions within the National Electricity Market.
The Project is well-advanced, with all necessary land and development planning approvals secured and significant progress made towards finalising the grid connection works.
The Acquisition remains subject to a number of Conditions Precedent (CPs) including achieving satisfactory Generator Performance Standard (GPS) approvals from the Australian Electricity Market Operator (AEMO) for the Project. Under the terms of the Acquisition, the vendor will continue to progress the development of the Project including finalising the grid connection negotiations with Essential Energy and AEMO. The Acquisition is contingent upon all CPs being met by the vendor by the end of February 2019.
During the due diligence process, Genex has consulted with several financiers to inform its financing strategy for the Project. As a result, Genex intends to finance construction either on a solely merchant basis given the strong NSW price forecasts, or under a potential offtake arrangement with the final financing decision to be made closer to financial close.
It is the Board’s objective to maximise value for existing shareholders and preserve cash with the main focus on fast tracking the Kidston Stage 2 projects to financial close. As such, whilst the majority of the construction funding for the Project will be provided via project finance debt, similar to the 50MW Kidston Stage 1 project, Genex is also considering a range of funding options to fund the balance (including a sell down in project-level interest).
ASX Announcement 7 September 2018
Given the Project’s advanced status, Genex anticipates reaching financial close in H1 2019 following the completion of the Kidston Stage 2 project financing which remains the top priority.
NAB acted as Adviser to Genex for the Acquisition.
Commenting on the announcement, CEO of Genex Power, James Harding stated:
“As a result of the strong revenues earnt to date from the Company’s 50MW Kidston Solar Project (KS1), we are able to utilise our cash reserves to diversify our project portfolio into NSW and create a stronger revenue pipeline. The Kidston Stage Two Pumped Storage Hydro and Solar Project remains the principal focus of the Company, and we continue to make significant progress towards finalising the remaining components necessary to achieve financial close. The Jemalong Solar Project offers a good opportunity to create a step change up in revenue and both expand and diversify the Company’s portfolio as we complete the development of Stage 2 at Kidston.
“On behalf of Genex, we wish to thank the vendor, Vast Solar Pty Ltd, and their adviser, Energy Estate, for the progress to date on JSP and look forward to working with them to achieve the final conditions precedent necessary for financial close”.
Updated Company Presentation incl NSW Solar project
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180907/pdf/43y47s3vqjs5l9.pdf
NZSilver
07-09-2018, 07:27 PM
I woul;d be interested to know the stats on this solar project. It seems a strange purchase to me.
Carpenterjoe
09-09-2018, 07:16 AM
I woul;d be interested to know the stats on this solar project. It seems a strange purchase to me.
Seems like GNX have been presented with this opportunity, I feel they have not been looking for this type of purchase, but the numbers must stack up for them.
I suppose Jemalong provides
- back up generation if Kidstone goes offline.
- if the weather is poor in Qland and good in NSW.
- is closer to Australia largest market.
- Time, the application process has already been approved. This will cost a premium.
I suppose i would like details on
- Cost
- Funding, Lending.
- type of alternative generation in the area.
- type of solar set up.
- does the the deal include their 6mw concentrated solar thermal power plant.
- can they expand easily.
interesting reading
http://www.vastsolar.com/2017/11/28/jemalong-50mw-solar-pv-project-forbes-advocate/
https://www.australianenergystorage.com.au/site/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Andrew-Want.pdf
Simon has indicated that they are looking to diversify their portfolio and in my little investment file my Blue Sky predictions was that "Genex could become a major player in the Australian renewable energy sector".
As carpenterjoe said I think the opportunity presented itself to Genex. Vast Solar seems to be purely a developer of solar projects but not an operator. They are invested in Concentrated Solar Thermal Power and have realized that Jemalong is not a suitable site for this type of project. By selling they can use those funds to develop their technology elsewhere.
So Genex who is currently negotiating funding for Kidston Stage 2 realizes that with all the hard work already done on this project and if the numbers stack up and even if LGC prices go down to zero they could still get $10m pa for this project. But I guess the proof will be in the detail but with having a good board with sufficient background in banking I trust that the right decisions will be made.
Now bring on Stage 2! I hear the shovels are ready.
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/northern-australia-infrastructure-facility-funding-stuck-in-the-slow-lane-20180907-h152ur
Coalition urges NAIF to spend up before election
STMOD SAYS DO NOT COPY AND PASTE ENTIRE ARTICLES
Not necessarily connect to GNX (yet) but State governments have enough of the horrible Coalition government which still operates in the 20th century energy-wise.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-launches-emerging-energy-program-to-replace-coal-generation-89992/
NSW launches emerging energy program to replace coal generation
GNX only exposure to the NSW energy market at the moment is through its proposed 50MW Jemalong Solar project.
discl. still hold a large parcel. Waiting patiently on Kidston Stage 2 announcements
Of late management has made very confident noises that they believe financial close for Stage 2 will be done before Christmas. There are so many pieces that have to fall into place that I am not worried that it takes some time.
Executive director Simon Kidston said the hydro storage facility was shovel ready and the intention was to start construction in March or April next year.
He said Genex was negotiating an arrangement with a major energy company to operate the hydro plant, the company would then pay a rental payment to Genex, which would help the project get to financial close. “Wea re expecting to have this finalised by Christmas,” Mr Kidston said.
Just announced. Unfortunately brain has already entered Christmas mode so not a 100% sure yet how positive this is.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20181220/pdf/441d508yq8mrly.pdf
GENEX SIGNS TERM SHEET WITH ENERGYAUSTRALIA FOR
LONG-TERM HYDRO ENERGY AGREEMENT AND EQUITY INVESTMENT
Genex Power Limited (ASX: GNX) (Genex or Company) is pleased to announce that it has entered into a non-binding term sheet (Term Sheet) with EnergyAustralia Pty Ltd (EnergyAustralia) in respect of a long-term energy storage services agreement and equity investment in the Company’s 250MW Kidston Pumped Storage Hydro Project (K2-Hydro or Project). Genex is also pleased to provide an update on the progress of the Kidston Stage 2 projects.
Key Points of the announcement today:
Genex signs long term Energy Storage Services Agreement (i.e. Offtake) and equity investment Term Sheet with EnergyAustralia (EA) for the Kidston Pumped Storage Hydro Project (K2-Hydro).
EA is one of Australia’s leading energy retailers with around 2.3 million electricity and gas customers across eastern Australia.
EA and Genex will jointly complete development of K2-Hydro.
EA will have full dispatch rights which will underpin all revenues and support a long-term concessional loan from NAIF.
EA will provide new equity which will result in a 50:50 joint venture in the K2-Hydro project with Genex.
The Term Sheet is a strong endorsement from EA of the attractiveness of the Project in the current environment of increasing penetration of renewable energy, and the need for corresponding firming capacity.
Key milestone to allow construction to commence in H1 2019.
Term Sheet provides a period of exclusivity to allow completion of final due diligence, long form documentation, final grid connection and final EA Board approval.
Key Points of the announcement today:
Genex signs long term Energy Storage Services Agreement (i.e. Offtake) and equity investment Term Sheet with EnergyAustralia (EA) for the Kidston Pumped Storage Hydro Project (K2-Hydro).
EA is one of Australia’s leading energy retailers with around 2.3 million electricity and gas customers across eastern Australia.
EA and Genex will jointly complete development of K2-Hydro.
EA will have full dispatch rights which will underpin all revenues and support a long-term concessional loan from NAIF.
EA will provide new equity which will result in a 50:50 joint venture in the K2-Hydro project with Genex.
The Term Sheet is a strong endorsement from EA of the attractiveness of the Project in the current environment of increasing penetration of renewable energy, and the need for corresponding firming capacity.
Key milestone to allow construction to commence in H1 2019.
Term Sheet provides a period of exclusivity to allow completion of final due diligence, long form documentation, final grid connection and final EA Board approval.
Weirdest bit for me was the mention of take overs - not sure if that is smoke before the fire or just a legal requirement to be mentioned.
Yeah that's weird mentioning a potential takeover. I want Genex to become a dividend paying powerhouse that will benefit me in my retirement.
wizAlvin
11-01-2019, 01:27 PM
will you be in 2019 comp silu? close 2 days
will you be in 2019 comp silu? close 2 days
Thanks for reminding me. Just quickly put in my 5 picks but didn't have time to read up if there's an entry fee. Apologies but I'll check later unless someone kind links direct to the post with the account number.
wizAlvin
13-01-2019, 09:28 AM
ASZ 2019 competition closing in few hours
Slow but steady progress. Still very upbeat about its prospects.
Here their latest presentation: https://www.genexpower.com.au/uploads/6/6/1/2/6612684/corporate_presentation_june_2019.pdf
Also the AFR reports that Japanese-headquartered J Power is set to buy up to a 19.99 per cent stake in Genex Energy, and will pay a significant premium for the privilege. The deal will be announced as early as Thursday.
Onwards and upwards. This is a legacy investment for me.
I love the market's reaction to the news. Up 18.4% at the moment. If I wouldn't already be totally overweight on GNX shares I would have topped up some more today.
Carpenterjoe
06-06-2019, 11:56 PM
I love the market's reaction to the news. Up 18.4% at the moment. If I wouldn't already be totally overweight on GNX shares I would have topped up some more today.
Yip, it will be an interesting few years, funding is a must and once secured things could/will fire. So far, hats off to management, there has been little ramping and controlled emotions regarding market releases. Our pipeline of renewable is growing at a time when the public demand it. Ethically, I was a little concerned about J-powers ownership involvement, but at least the deal has allowed current owners to push the price skywards before financial close and in-turn restricting the % owned.
It will be interesting how the late comers tomorrow value the news.
The next few months will be exciting. The J-Power stake will be a final piece of the puzzle and then we have to find out how big the equity raise will be to fund KS2. I've always believed it to be around the 20-30m mark. Besides one botched up CR management so far haven't made many missteps. It will be interesting to see how they will be managing this one. I've kept some funds aside as I believe it will be a CR with some sweeteners for existing shareholders.
Carpenterjoe
26-06-2019, 10:21 AM
This recent C/R has very little in it regarding costing and future costing. But I guess that is still to be completed and always changing.
Have I missed the price of construction for Jemalong?
Reading between the lines they seem confident to get finance for Jemalong, KPS, (165MW of 270MW KSP2) with 105MW to be decided later.
To get finance for Jemalong and allow for more working capital. They need more cash in the bank and are asking for another 16.2m from shareholders.
This will change the total issue to 379,914,392
379,914,392 x .20 = Mcap 75,982,878
379,914,392 x .24 = Mcap 91,179,454
379,914,392 x .27 = Mcap 102,576,885
Once finance is completed, They need Jpower to invest another 25m for more working capital, loan requirements, ect
at .20 379,914,392 x 19.99% stake = 94,978,598 (18.9m) new issue = 474,892,990 .20 = Mcap 94,978,598
at .24 379,914,392 x 19.99% stake = 94,978,595 (22.7m) new issue = 474,892,990 .24 = Mcap 113,974,317
at .26 379,914,392 x 19.99% stake = 94,978,595 (24.7m) new issue = 474,892,990 .26 = Mcap 123,472,177
In return shareholders get Revenue of 66m - 78m
The big question for me is costs,
Project costs
Finance costs
Ongoing costs
fwiw The construction contract with UGL to build the 50MW Kidston solar project cost $110m to engineer, procure and construct and also included 5 years of operation and maintenance. There was an investor presentation attached to the latest CR https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/gnx.asx-2A1155842/ but it only says that they need 31.7m (they'll use $12.5m in cash) to fund Jemalong incl additional working capital.
My guess is that they are in negotiations at the moment to complete refinance their debt requirements as Kidston Stage 1 is fully operational, the arrival of J-Power and indicative NAIF funding for the Hydro project. I guess it helps that Genex has experienced bankers on their board.
Carpenterjoe
26-06-2019, 11:59 AM
fwiw The construction contract with UGL to build the 50MW Kidston solar project cost $110m to engineer, procure and construct and also included 5 years of operation and maintenance. There was an investor presentation attached to the latest CR https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/gnx.asx-2A1155842/ but it only says that they need 31.7m (they'll use $12.5m in cash) to fund Jemalong incl additional working capital.
My guess is that they are in negotiations at the moment to complete refinance their debt requirements as Kidston Stage 1 is fully operational, the arrival of J-Power and indicative NAIF funding for the Hydro project. I guess it helps that Genex has experienced bankers on their board.
Thanks for the 110m information, I started looking through announcements and gave up,
The wording on these documents is for the banking type, not the working with wood type.
Agree, the finance side of the operation seems very well managed.
duncan22
26-06-2019, 12:38 PM
This recent C/R has very little in it regarding costing and future costing. But I guess that is still to be completed and always changing.
Have I missed the price of construction for Jemalong?
Reading between the lines they seem confident to get finance for Jemalong, KPS, (165MW of 270MW KSP2) with 105MW to be decided later.
To get finance for Jemalong and allow for more working capital. They need more cash in the bank and are asking for another 16.2m from shareholders.
This will change the total issue to 379,914,392
379,914,392 x .20 = Mcap 75,982,878
379,914,392 x .24 = Mcap 91,179,454
379,914,392 x .27 = Mcap 102,576,885
Once finance is completed, They need Jpower to invest another 25m for more working capital, loan requirements, ect
at .20 379,914,392 x 19.99% stake = 94,978,598 (18.9m) new issue = 474,892,990 .20 = Mcap 94,978,598
at .24 379,914,392 x 19.99% stake = 94,978,595 (22.7m) new issue = 474,892,990 .24 = Mcap 113,974,317
at .26 379,914,392 x 19.99% stake = 94,978,595 (24.7m) new issue = 474,892,990 .26 = Mcap 123,472,177
In return shareholders get Revenue of 66m - 78m
The big question for me is costs,
Project costs
Finance costs
Ongoing costs
Possibly another (final?) cap raise for the pumped hydro as well if J-Power, NAIF and EnergyAustralia’s contributions don’t quite make it.
Like the Black Caps last night never in doubt right?
NAIF Approves $610M Concessional Funding for Kidston Hydro
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190711/pdf/446k0cb87byj9z.pdf
Today we will find out if the 24c SPP has been scaled back or not. The minimum investment was A$5000 so smaller shareholders may have been left out of here. I've gone for the maximum A$15k (current SP 26.5c) as I don't think they are going back to shareholders for financial close on KH1.
Simon actually confirmed in the latest interview here https://youtu.be/ZuyjcvFMhrQ that with the NAIF loan of A$615m and the up to A$25m investment by J-Power their share of this project is fully funded. For the first time ever they gave a concrete timeline for financial close on this project which is by 30th September.
I expect a re-rate of the SP leading up to or following this announcement.
The SPP @ 24c was way more popular than I anticipated. They expected to raise $3m but got subscriptions for almost $5.3m. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190726/pdf/446x6ch638sz2r.pdf
Opened at 25.5c after shares have been allocated so to those inclined to take a small profit could do so now. I'm in for the long haul but may scale back my very large holding after the expected re-rate after KH1 financial close.
P.S. Directors have also participated in this SPP for the full $15k
The SPP @ 24c was way more popular than I anticipated. They expected to raise $3m but got subscriptions for almost $5.3m. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190726/pdf/446x6ch638sz2r.pdf
Opened at 25.5c after shares have been allocated so to those inclined to take a small profit could do so now. I'm in for the long haul but may scale back my very large holding after the expected re-rate after KH1 financial close.
P.S. Directors have also participated in this SPP for the full $15k
Like you, Silu, I have way to much of this in my portfolio.
Have re positioned a lot of things over the past year, but this is one I have held now since March / April of 2016 and lots of profits from other more speculative investments I push into Genex.
Very excited about the projects and the company.
Like you, Silu, I have way to much of this in my portfolio.
Have re positioned a lot of things over the past year, but this is one I have held now since March / April of 2016 and lots of profits from other more speculative investments I push into Genex.
Very excited about the projects and the company.
Good to hear you're still in it Dej. I believe it was actually you who suggested GNX to me so thank you! Now lets get the financial close for KH1!
It's behind a paywall but the Townsville Bulletin reports that the QLD state government approved the A$132m funding for the transmission line for the Kidston Renewable Energy Hub.
N.B. Actually ABC news reported it as well https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-04/pumped-storage-hydro-project-set-to-have-ghost-town-bustling/11467992
Joint statement between Genex and QLD State Government is out https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190904/pdf/4486y6jg6d23z2.pdf
While we are still waiting on the official financial close announcements I rest easy knowing Energy Australia is looking for a Project Manager on Seek for the Kidston Pumped Hydro Project https://www.seek.com.au/job/40017209?type=standout&searchrequesttoken=fd77431e-51f7-455f-8564-897a230a1473
Carpenterjoe
18-10-2019, 04:11 AM
Interesting post on HC regarding inverter issues, apparently the solar field has been off line a number of times, I dont believe this has been released to market. Seems UGL are going to earn their margin resolving this issue. Hopefully this is settled quickly and stays away from the courts.
Joshuatree
01-11-2019, 04:19 PM
Hopefully it comes through in 2020 for you silu
Kidston Pumped Storage Hydro - Project Update 2 pages 141.4KB (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02168417)
As part of its final approval processes, which were targeting a final investment decision in CY 2019, EA has today advised Genex that it will not be in a position to reach a positive investment decision on the basis of the long term energy agreement structure as outlined in the Term Sheet. In light of this development, Genex wishes to advise that it no longer anticipates that it will reach financial close on the Project in CY 2019.
Hopefully it comes through in 2020 for you silu
Kidston Pumped Storage Hydro - Project Update 2 pages 141.4KB (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02168417)
As part of its final approval processes, which were targeting a final investment decision in CY 2019, EA has today advised Genex that it will not be in a position to reach a positive investment decision on the basis of the long term energy agreement structure as outlined in the Term Sheet. In light of this development, Genex wishes to advise that it no longer anticipates that it will reach financial close on the Project in CY 2019.
I better hope so. I'm BIG into this coy. I honestly feel quite ill right now.
Elles
01-11-2019, 09:56 PM
How big of an issue is it? Just a delay or chance it gets canned?
Carpenterjoe
02-11-2019, 08:54 AM
bad bad bad
Thinking chin up silu,
We have to wait a little longer for Energy Australia, sounds like negotiations broke down. I would love to know the reasons, usually its money. It could be a good sign our little company is negotiating hard. Seems there has been no market leak, share price has been strong recently.
This project is in high demand, I wouldnt be surprised for the politicians to get involved. They may open their wallets even more.
Looking to add a few more over the next little while, I see this as a delay, it happens all the time in my industry. Hopefully this is resolved in the first quarter next year and not the last.
Its a pitty, it was tracking so well.
Thinking chin up silu,
We have to wait a little longer for Energy Australia, sounds like negotiations broke down. I would love to know the reasons, usually its money. It could be a good sign our little company is negotiating hard. Seems there has been no market leak, share price has been strong recently.
This project is in high demand, I wouldnt be surprised for the politicians to get involved. They may open their wallets even more.
Looking to add a few more over the next little while, I see this as a delay, it happens all the time in my industry. Hopefully this is resolved in the first quarter next year and not the last.
Its a pitty, it was tracking so well.
Hi Carpenterjoe,
Thanks for the words. I'm feeling a bit better now and it's not as if Genex is suddenly going belly up or the like. I actually think right now they are barely valued fairly with KS1 completed and JS1 just about to start. Kinda good to hear also that you as an industry insider aren't too worried about the delay.
My 2 cents right now about this are the Genex negotiated hard for a 20-30 year off-take agreement. Energy Australia as a conservative body was looking for policy concessions from the Federal Government that were as yet not forthcoming. Personally I cannot see how this project is not going forward as it has the backing from so many parties and the state government but how and when is going to hang over the share price for a while. How J-Power will fit into this I don't know yet. I'm looking forward to management informing the market clearly about the path forward.
On the plus side with new substantial holders coming on board just before the announcement it seems that most have been unaware and there are no leaks. Small consolation.
Currently trading at 19c which is way better than the drop to 14c on Friday. At current MC of 75m it trades at fair value for KS1 and JS1 imo.
Carpenterjoe
04-11-2019, 09:57 PM
Hi Carpenterjoe,
Thanks for the words. I'm feeling a bit better now and it's not as if Genex is suddenly going belly up or the like. I actually think right now they are barely valued fairly with KS1 completed and JS1 just about to start. Kinda good to hear also that you as an industry insider aren't too worried about the delay.
My 2 cents right now about this are the Genex negotiated hard for a 20-30 year off-take agreement. Energy Australia as a conservative body was looking for policy concessions from the Federal Government that were as yet not forthcoming. Personally I cannot see how this project is not going forward as it has the backing from so many parties and the state government but how and when is going to hang over the share price for a while. How J-Power will fit into this I don't know yet. I'm looking forward to management informing the market clearly about the path forward.
On the plus side with new substantial holders coming on board just before the announcement it seems that most have been unaware and there are no leaks. Small consolation.
Good to hear your not letting the situation get the better of you.
I'm happy we have been notified this side of xmas. I would have found it harder getting notified with a week left in the year.
This project its needed by the grid. Within the last few months there have been midday occurrences where the grid has charged to produce Queensland power.
I will continue to trade at these prices, even tho i got caught holding way to many last week.
I would like an update on the Jemmalong project and if the building schedule has changed.
There's some weight off my shoulders
NAIF Board Approves Extension of Kidston Hydro Funding Offer
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/gnx.asx-2A1186169/
Filthy
13-11-2019, 01:13 PM
There's some weight off my shoulders
NAIF Board Approves Extension of Kidston Hydro Funding Offer
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/gnx.asx-2A1186169/
have been following this one for the last 12 months.
thanks very much for all of your contributions & commentary silu (which I have always enjoyed).
finally took a punt and dipped my toes in this morning @18.5
now to stick them in the bottom draw!
hopefully this is just a small blip - great ultra long term hold imo
have been following this one for the last 12 months.
thanks very much for all of your contributions & commentary silu (which I have always enjoyed).
finally took a punt and dipped my toes in this morning @18.5
now to stick them in the bottom draw!
hopefully this is just a small blip - great ultra long term hold imo
Thank you Filthy. Glad to hear that some people read my posts. Although my confidence got a little knocked down with the announcement 2 weeks ago I still have faith that this project will go ahead. My plan with Genex still is to hold and perhaps buy more along the way and then reap the rewards when it becomes a dividend payer in my (hopefully) early retirement.
Joshuatree
13-11-2019, 04:47 PM
Im in today too. Need more Green stocks and this is an opportunity for me. DYOR not a recco.
duncan22
13-11-2019, 10:52 PM
I topped up today at 18.5. Surprised to see it drop on close. I did see a 1 million share icebergs sell order at 18c so someone big wanting out.
Filthy
14-11-2019, 08:03 AM
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/genex-says-pumped-hydro-project-on-track/news-story/3a9618eef81aaabb4ede6242c4c79c5b
First interview with Simon since that announcement https://youtu.be/sdMRIHZ-2m4
He talks about slight tweaks to the Initial agreement with Energy Australia (I believe Genex wanted a multi-decade off-take agreement while EA only wanted 10 years). He is adamant that it will start construction last year.
Carpenterjoe
15-11-2019, 08:17 AM
First interview with Simon since that announcement https://youtu.be/sdMRIHZ-2m4
He talks about slight tweaks to the Initial agreement with Energy Australia (I believe Genex wanted a multi-decade off-take agreement while EA only wanted 10 years). He is adamant that it will start construction last year.
Thanks mate,
I always find it intresting the amount of information not released via the asx. Simon seems very confident.
This is going to be a very long term hold for me. Happy to get in as many free share trades along the way.
Joshuatree
21-11-2019, 11:51 AM
GNX Receives Lender Credit Approval for Jemalong and KS1 3 pages 336.3KB (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02175596)
Getting closer to a lined up duck for JSP solar, subject to finalisation.
Genex Executes New MOU with J-POWER for Kidston Hydro
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191122/pdf/44btwgt1wx3mk7.pdf
with NAIF funding getting extended and now the MOU with J Power too I rest easier. I did sell a quarter at 18c tho because quite frankly I had too much.
duncan22
25-03-2020, 11:08 AM
After a terrible few months for GNX could this be the light at the end of the tunnel...
https://reneweconomy.com.au/genex-said-to-be-days-away-from-off-take-deal-for-kidston-pumped-hydro-87863/
Better hope so. I have loads and the majority of my $ losses over the last few weeks came from GNX.
duncan22
30-03-2020, 10:40 AM
EnergyAustralia are on board!
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200330/pdf/44ghldn4gpq01t.pdf
Looks like this project might actually go ahead.
EnergyAustralia are on board!
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200330/pdf/44ghldn4gpq01t.pdf
Looks like this project might actually go ahead.
You beat me to it. Wonderful news. And I guess I need this as who knows if I have a job to get back to.
Carpenterjoe
30-03-2020, 11:01 AM
EnergyAustralia are on board!
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200330/pdf/44ghldn4gpq01t.pdf
Looks like this project might actually go ahead.
Bloody ripper,
Interesting financial close will be as late as Q3 of calendar year 2020.
duncan22
30-03-2020, 11:46 AM
Bloody ripper,
Interesting financial close will be as late as Q3 of calendar year 2020.
Perhaps they’re hoping for the share price to be improved so the Japanese company that is taking a 20% stake in them has to pay up (vwap after financial close).
Bloody hell. Up to 17.5c nearly up +100%. Last week I wondered if I should buy more after the Townsville Bulletin article but currently I'm just so unsure about my financial situation that I prefer to have extra cash in the bank. Either way I'm up to even right now and with it a huge $ gain on my portfolio.
It's been a long ride holders. Long may it continue.
Carpenterjoe
30-03-2020, 12:21 PM
Bloody hell. Up to 17.5c nearly up +100%. Last week I wondered if I should buy more after the Townsville Bulletin article but currently I'm just so unsure about my financial situation that I prefer to have extra cash in the bank. Either way I'm up to even right now and with it a huge $ gain on my portfolio.
It's been a long ride holders. Long may it continue.
Yip, crazy.
Carpenterjoe
22-04-2020, 12:09 PM
Sounds like we have a good spot for solar.
https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2020/04/22/the-nem-saw-25-renewable-generation-in-march/ (https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2020/04/22/the-nem-saw-25-renewable-generation-in-march/)
Carpenterjoe
21-05-2020, 03:25 PM
Fly over
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssMDFr5zlcw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssMDFr5zlcw)
Fly over
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssMDFr5zlcw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssMDFr5zlcw)
Very nice. I know it hasn't been the best investment to date yet but we have achieved an awful lot for a small cap. I continue to hold as the Hydro project will go ahead imo.
Carpenterjoe
22-05-2020, 10:41 AM
Very nice. I know it hasn't been the best investment to date yet but we have achieved an awful lot for a small cap. I continue to hold as the Hydro project will go ahead imo.
It will be a long hold. Last year we had a few timing issues, but I feel they have been resolved.
I enjoy how this little company is setting up for the long haul. They are not trying to make a quick buck, instead building relationships, making sure the paperwork is in order and then progressing in orderly fashion to building long term assets.
I suppose we have two big announcements this year to look forward to.
Completion of Jemmalong.
Starting of our Water battery.
Chuck in a few pipeline developments and I hope I can add to my free holding.
Carpenterjoe
14-06-2020, 06:38 AM
Intresting read, looks like our investment in cloud forecasting wil pay off.
https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2020/06/12/meet-the-sydney-startup-forecasting-our-renewable-energy-future/
OK now it's happening. I can feel it. The Hydro project is going to start getting built soon. Please don't let me be wrong.
Joshuatree
03-08-2020, 11:24 AM
Its not just in silus water, folks
"Genex Power Limited (ASX: GNX) (Genex or the Company) hereby requests a trading halt in
its securities from the ASX effective immediately pending the release of an announcement with respect to the signing of a material agreement in relation to an equity investment for the Company’s Kidston Pumped Storage Hydro Project (Project)."
Trading Halt (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/5533073/)
This would be such a wonderful achievement for a small company. And also vindication to all that have told me that I've put too many eggs in one basket and to my bank manager who hounded me to sell this investment to make my house deposit larger.
Not quite financial close on the project yet but with J-Power contributing up to 25m that's the equity side of the project sown up. Final puzzle detail as far as I know is the transmission line. Financial close targeted for next month. But I really can't see anything falling through anymore.
And a new project has made it into the presentation;
Como Battery Project
50MW/75MWh (1.5hrs of storage depth) lithium ion battery.
Will connect into existing substation.
Intended to operate on an arbitrage/FCAS revenue model, bidding into all eight FCAS markets.
Leverages Genex robust understanding of energy storage in Queensland.
Potential to deliver a step change in revenues by Q4 CY2021.
Joshuatree
06-08-2020, 12:31 PM
T/H cap raise. Still watching for a poss reentry.
AFR announces 21.3m at 22c to fund Como battery project
Carpenterjoe
07-08-2020, 10:14 AM
AFR announces 21.3m at 22c to fund Como battery project
Thanks silu,
I am still digesting the battery decision.
Pros
Relatively fast build.
Certainly money to be made off spot market.
Keeps GNX in favor with the NEM. (look we can build and more importantly store energy)
More positive announcements to follow.
Cons
More expensive than pump storage
Short life span
I really wanted another pump storage
Out of curiosity. How many STers are going to participate in the SPP? I'm still on the fence because I'm already overweight on it with GNX being 20% of my portfolio.
Note quite the real thing (financial close not happening until February) but so far the most definite statement by the Board that the Hydro project will go ahead. I've still got a lot invested in this company so I'll rest easy for the Christmas holiday
http://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20201222/02325439.pdf?uid=8D3ABE45E5B986011305668963529AD4A 92E000012E50C0A9293E540093D250091850000&ppv=
Additional good news just before Christmas
GENEX BEGINS EARLY WORKS PROGRAMME FOR KIDSTON PUMPED STORAGE HYDRO PROJECT https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/gnx.asx-2A1271909/
The scope of early works relates to the following activities:
• Development of a new 275kV transmission line connecting the K2-Hydro project to the National Electricity Market (‘NEM’);
• Renovation of Oaks Rush Construction Camp (the ‘Camp’) which will provide accommodation during the construction of K2-Hydro;
• Refurbishment of the Kidston Airstrip (the ‘Airstrip’) allowing the mobilisation of the workforce; and
• Upgrade of communication infrastructure
The first point struck me the most re the transmission line. This is the puzzle piece that was/is the most contentious amongst all the stakeholders and given they do the early spade work makes me think that they in principle have agreed to the terms and all that is left is the official signing ceremony and financial close.
wizAlvin
04-01-2021, 11:30 AM
53 competition entries - still time for the 2021 competition - go gnx
Joshuatree
08-01-2021, 05:09 PM
Back in today. Biden/Democrats are good for green energy stocks(green as in cannabis too). Theres a global surge (look at MEL) of interest including Aus govt.And funding close...... i hope. DYOR
Joshuatree
08-01-2021, 05:49 PM
February now.
Ann: Grant of Waiver and Withdrawal of EGM (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-grant-of-waiver-and-withdrawal-of-egm.5848376/)
Joshuatree
09-02-2021, 09:06 PM
Another duck lined up. All we need now is the dripping roast.:)
$147M Qld Government Transmission Line Funding Package (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/5890984/)
Another duck lined up. All we need now is the dripping roast.:)
$147M Qld Government Transmission Line Funding Package (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/5890984/)
Every time I wanted to post these wonderful news the site was down. Bring on Financial Close!
Simon was presenting at a conference this week and he basically said that he is working from home to sign contracts and contractual close for Hydro Project will (not may, no ifs or buts) happen this month. I don't think he would make those statements without being a 100% sure.
Wow what a day yesterday. I don't even try to summarize myself so I just take it from this article: https://themarketherald.com.au/genex-power-asxgnx-raises-90m-for-kidston-2021-03-24/?__hstc=51568950.5cefcdb1d6c48a1536452524ea827f28. 1583436693617.1616557117430.1616612886341.822&__hssc=51568950.5.1616612886341&__hsfp=213900686
First off the ugly: Huge raise and discount. Massive dilution. Very bad for non-OZ/NZ holders as they cannot participate in the rights issue
The Good: We are going to retain 100% ownership of the Kidston Hydro project. That's avg ann revenue of $82.5m until 2055, avg group EBITDA margin of 79%, over 85% of revenue contracted for the next 30 years and no material tax payable until FY2039. But even more this is the mothership that will allow us to raise more money for other project in the future. I see it as the family home against which we can secure funding at great terms.
The Great: ARENA. Let's not beat around the bush they gave us amazing terms. First forgiving a $9m debt, then giving us another $47m in grant money and of course the NAIF loan at sub 3% pa interest.
At first yesterday's announcement came as a shock to me. The huge discount hurts, especially to recent buyers and to some who have a shorter investment outlook. However after digesting the news I see us retaining 100% ownership of Kidston Hydro as a huge plus going forward for financing of future projects.
I already have lots but I'm still going to take up all my rights. Although returns for shareholders won't be great based on current and projected numbers the upside as one of ASX's last remaining pure Renewable Energy sector plays and other projects coming up like Bouldercombe Battery and Kidston Wind I still expect to have significant return on my investment in the years ahead.
This is going to be the first Pumped Hydro project in Australia for over 40 years. Developed over 5 years by a small company that has also already delivered 100mw in Solar generation. Although the road so far has been bumpy I still am happy to be a big investor in Genex.
Yesterday it was reported that Atlassian co-founders Mike Cannon-Brookes and Scott Farquhar have piled into GNX. If I was a little bit on the fence whether to take up my considerate amount of rights at 20c I think these news have assuaged my concerns. They are also a major backer of Suncable which has lofty ambitions for energy production in the NT. There are possible synergies in play in the future which makes perhaps Genex a more attractive option to potential investors.
Joshuatree
27-03-2021, 11:16 PM
Thanks for the summary silu.I like how the s/p is holding up .We are well positioned for a long stable and growing cashflow stream and the best thing is its all green.
Joshuatree
31-03-2021, 02:35 PM
Download Document 159.73KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4Qe8y Bb2v%2FB357FiGug%3D)
Nearly there,
Following PD Contractual Close, Genex is expected to complete the Finance Document Contractual Close process, including execution of the $610M Senior Facility Agreement with the State of Queensland and the $47M Funding Agreement with the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, in the coming days.
Download Document 159.73KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4Qe8y Bb2v%2FB357FiGug%3D)
Nearly there,
Following PD Contractual Close, Genex is expected to complete the Finance Document Contractual Close process, including execution of the $610M Senior Facility Agreement with the State of Queensland and the $47M Funding Agreement with the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, in the coming days.
I'm very happy and although returns so far haven't been that great the fact that we are getting a project as big and complex as this over the line is a major weight of my shoulders and the future will look bright for Genex shareholders.
discl. I'm going to take up all my rights
Financial Close for Kidston Hydro achieved! It's been quite a journey over the last 5 years but I'm glad we are getting our flagship project over the line. Hopefully many more renewable energy projects to follow in the coming years.
A summary of things that have happened over the last weeks:
- I was a bit too hasty before and called it "financial close" when it was actually "finance document contractual close"
- A rights issue at 20c ($20m was taken up by shareholders, approx $15m worth going to the underwriters)
- Construction commenced at Kidston Hydro project taking approx 3.75 years to complete (note its a fixed cost contract)
- Shareholders approved the $25m investment by J-Power (which will be between 0.211c and 0.2337c per share)
to come:
7/5 confirmation of share price sale to J-Power
18/5 settlement of share issue to J-Power and appointment of Kenichi Seshimo to the Genex Board
19/5 financial close
We are out of the pricing period for the J-Power share sale and the SP seems to have found a level between 23c-24c which amongst the turmoil of late has been heartening. I expect another little uplift in SP after 19/5 when financial close is officially achieved for the Kidston Hydro project.
In the short term I expect news about the Bouldercombe battery project about battery supplier (I think Simon let it slip that it will be provided by Tesla) and the size. Planned was 50MW but I believe provisions have been made in resource consent to upgrade to 100MW.
Turbines ordered: https://www.andritz.com/newsroom-en/hydro/2021-04-29-kidston-group
Today we should see settlement of share sale to J-Power and appointment of Kenichi Seshimo to the GNX board.
Tomorrow we should reach Financial Close.
It's official. Financial close on Hydro achieved!
Joshuatree
20-05-2021, 12:20 PM
12524
Great stuff:t_up: A comfortable bottom drawer hold locked in now .
Today is the groundbreaking ceremony at Kidston for the pumped hydro project. Nice.
12589
NZSilver
21-10-2021, 12:46 PM
Back in to Genex this morning (an old friend), lots to like now with a lot of risk now removed and the share price is looking very good for an entry. Quarterly update looked good, value play here for me. Who's still following this? Silu? I was reading an article from a technical analysis point of view (not my kind of thing) but chart is evidently looking good for a breakout upwards.
Yes I'm still in it. Very large investment actually. Had to stop buying because it's up to 30% of my total portfolio. Bottom of the drawer type of investment for me. Currently priced for Kidston and Jemalong Solar without the upside of Bouldercome Battery, Kidston Wind and of course Kidston Hydro to come.
This one won't make you rich overnight but it will be a stable investment with considerate upside and also managements willingness to pay out dividends in the near future. TA wise there seems to be some tightening lately which would suggest a re-rate. Personally I think it should be trading closer to 30c at the moment.
turnip
21-10-2021, 07:49 PM
I bought a small parcel of Genex to regain a bit of exposure to Australian renewable energy now that Tilt Renewables is gone. I'll gradually add more by investing dividends from NZ investments in the same sector. I've taken a similar approach with a few US-listed companies, just proceeding slowly and cautiously for now.
NZSilver
21-10-2021, 08:41 PM
Yes I'm still in it. Very large investment actually. Had to stop buying because it's up to 30% of my total portfolio. Bottom of the drawer type of investment for me. Currently priced for Kidston and Jemalong Solar without the upside of Bouldercome Battery, Kidston Wind and of course Kidston Hydro to come.
This one won't make you rich overnight but it will be a stable investment with considerate upside and also managements willingness to pay out dividends in the near future. TA wise there seems to be some tightening lately which would suggest a re-rate. Personally I think it should be trading closer to 30c at the moment.
Yes plenty to like, I have listened to a couple of interviews and to oversimplify what they have said they have a very low risk strategy to "lease" their generation assets out and get steady returns for shareholders.
turnip
03-03-2022, 09:57 PM
Share purchase plan (https://app.sharelinktechnologies.com/announcement/asx/863c442fa9b2ac458962bc2c544d08b1) is open, price is lower of $0.15 or market VWAP over the 5 days before the offer closes on March 17.
I plan to participate, but I only had a small holding on record date so expect I will get scaled severly if it turns out to be oversubscribed.
Joshuatree
04-03-2022, 08:17 AM
Geez the shareprice has tanked!
Share purchase plan (https://app.sharelinktechnologies.com/announcement/asx/863c442fa9b2ac458962bc2c544d08b1) is open, price is lower of $0.15 or market VWAP over the 5 days before the offer closes on March 17.
I plan to participate, but I only had a small holding on record date so expect I will get scaled severly if it turns out to be oversubscribed.
I'm a little bit at a loss with this one. I'm very big on this but for a bunch of bankers I believe they did their capital raises very badly. Sure timing for a small company can be a bit tricky but yeah. Still a big believer if you don't have a short time frame. I bought more on market at 14c so I will give the SPP a miss this time. SP will recover but it seems the market really wants to wait until Hydro is closer to producing before re-rating this one. On the solar farms alone this should trade higher.
Carpenterjoe
11-03-2022, 04:56 AM
Yip,
Reckon market is worried about the construction risk on hydro. Bloody hope their Construction contract is tight, they are using HSF its a top 5 sydney law firm. From memory both solar projects had 1m+ delay/performance cost awarded to GNX.
I keep adding to my holding, I think the market has misunderstood GNX long term rev/debt contracts. Base revenue forcast to 2055 cpi protected, I haven't found any other company like it.
Bloody hope we stay away from any sort of takeove situation.
Yip,
Reckon market is worried about the construction risk on hydro. Bloody hope their Construction contract is tight, they are using HSF its a top 5 sydney law firm. From memory both solar projects had 1m+ delay/performance cost awarded to GNX.
I keep adding to my holding, I think the market has misunderstood GNX long term rev/debt contracts. Base revenue forcast to 2055 cpi protected, I haven't found any other company like it.
Bloody hope we stay away from any sort of takeove situation.
All still according to plan as per today's announcement https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02497917-2A1362489?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
Carpenterjoe
12-03-2022, 09:50 AM
All still according to plan as per today's announcement https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02497917-2A1362489?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
Yip, good news,
I will be watching out for stages and for potential variations at key stages.
I would think all the ground works have a higher proportion of risk associated with them. In saying that, there has been loads of drilling and digging in the area so plenty of information floating around about ground condition. It is hard rock, so should be stable and reliable.
Higher risk
Tunneling and Power house cavern
De watering into Turbine install, could see geo problems exposed and modifications needed in making the turbine fit.
Detailed design, contractors finding B/S issues to fix to increase project rev
Lower Risk
Turbine manufacturing
Dam
Transmission lines
Commissioning
I would expect changes in volume at completion of the higher risk stages. I think we have a 5% project buffer installed in the price, it would be nice to not to use it.
Skip Capital is trying a takeover bid at 23c (currently 13.5c). This will be a no for me - way too undervalued. I have recently topped up at 12c.
Carpenterjoe
25-07-2022, 07:30 AM
I'm a No, we haven't even built our main asset. Selling now is pure stupidity. An offer at 36 cents wouldn't get me excited,
Yeah although I knew it might be a takeover target at one stage I definitely planned to hold GNX into retirement collecting dividend cheques along the way.
Joshuatree
25-07-2022, 12:01 PM
So it begins,the demand for green energy exposure.May be other bids coming but have to be verry juicy to int me.Great timing Silu,topping up.
So it begins,the demand for green energy exposure.May be other bids coming but have to be verry juicy to int me.Great timing Silu,topping up.
I think a takeover was foreseeable but right now is too opportunistic and I hope that the BOD outright rejects this proposal. Don't even think about it. Reject immediately.
turnip
25-07-2022, 01:50 PM
I invested in Genex after being forced out of Tilt, and now it is happening again. Won't sell willingly..
I wouldn't have thought that my biggest ever intraday increase in my portfolio will leave me feeling a bit hollow but here we are. I hope if a takeover eventuates it's closer to 40c than the pathetic 23c offered. As I said I hope the BOD doesn't fart around and rejects it quickly.
Carpenterjoe
26-07-2022, 06:51 AM
Well said.
Hopefully this offer falls apart and leads to a share price pump into a small capital raise for a project.
Well done silu for your timing. I was days away from chucking another 30k into it.
Joshuatree
26-07-2022, 09:57 AM
Well said.
Hopefully this offer falls apart and leads to a share price pump into a small capital raise for a project.
Well done silu for your timing. I was days away from chucking another 30k into it.
It's just the opening bid imo ,start low and others will come in too,the ESG Greenrush is on.
Carpenterjoe
26-07-2022, 05:43 PM
Yip, I'll be holding until the end.
Good to see that Genex is getting a lot of news coverage at the moment. From being unloved and undervalued to a green gem in the making. I can only assume but I would be surprised if there wouldn't be more potential suiters having a good look at Genex right now. Also J-Power as a major shareholder has hardly gotten any returns on their investment yet.
The AFR reports that management has rejected Skip's over of 23c. Good. What we also see now is extensive coverage and people are wondering why a 70% premium takeover offer of a small cap isn't looked at. Which again states the bleeding obvious - we have been undervalued for ages.
GNX in another trading halt as the AFR reports an updated takeover bid by Skip Capital but this time binding on the fact that the Board recommends it. Probably still way below my own valuations especially with cashflows flowing from 2025/2026 onwards from Kidston Pumped Hydro. I was hoping to be in this for a long time. Now it seems that it is getting taken over before we can reap the benefits.
NZSilver
15-08-2022, 03:01 PM
Yep it's the usual story Silu, unfortunately the market has never taken much notice of genex, probably too much of a long term investment or to boring... Price has been stuck in a trading range for years even though there has been good progression on the projects. I suspect the company is a bit too small for a big infrastructure investment company to be interested (for example infratil). These guys have seen the value and the thematic of green energy, Im predicting they will probably take it away from us for a sub 30c valuation and be laughing in a few years time when kidston is complete.
turnip
15-08-2022, 04:44 PM
I don't want the GNX takeover to go ahead, but if it does I still want to keep an investment in Australian renewables, although there doesn't seem to be much else available on the ASX.
I have DEL on my watchlist, and that might be where a portion of my GNX funds would go, but I think it is a fair bit higher on the risk scale than GNX. MPR I have looked at but it seems more like a gamble than an investment at this stage.
We know with almost certainty that the new bid is for 25c however the AFR reports that there's another potential bidder in the pipeline. I'm still hoping that if GNX is taken over soon that it is for at least above 30c. My own valuation currently (albeit a bit positive) is 35c but based on the fact that Kidston Hydro construction goes off without a hitch and on time.
Carpenterjoe
16-08-2022, 04:52 PM
We know with almost certainty that the new bid is for 25c however the AFR reports that there's another potential bidder in the pipeline. I'm still hoping that if GNX is taken over soon that it is for at least above 30c. My own valuation currently (albeit a bit positive) is 35c but based on the fact that Kidston Hydro construction goes off without a hitch and on time.
I think we have a glossy annual report due soon, maybe the updated graphs including the Bulli Creek development will get the gorse out of Skips pockets.
If the takeover really happens then this will be my worst ever feeling despite having made a lot of money.
There it is. Unless there is another bidder we will get taken over for 25c which is BULLSH*T
NZSilver
17-08-2022, 12:22 PM
Yep pretty weak offer, only saving grace would be a second bidder coming in... What's the chances? Potentially JPower?
Yep pretty weak offer, only saving grace would be a second bidder coming in... What's the chances? Potentially JPower?
No idea but judging by the announcement there has to be another bidder otherwise 25c will get unanimous Board approval. Do we know anyone at the Aussie or NZ Superfunds? How about Infratil? I wanna dream a bit longer for a higher payout with at least a 3 at the front.
turnip
17-08-2022, 06:58 PM
There was an interesting bit about battery economics in the Q&A for Contact Energy's 2022 results this week. They are in the planning stages for a big NZ battery but have hit pause on the build. Although the demand side was improving in NZ (wider intra-day price spread) none of the major suppliers were willing to provide a build option that hedges against lithium prices. CEO described current lithium prices as "eye-watering".
GNX might have got their Tesla battery deal through at just the right time, which wold make the current takeover bid look even more opportunistic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a7XB0gGH9Ho&t=3910s
Joshuatree
17-08-2022, 10:02 PM
Jeez, I've been holding this a while ,my breakeven 24.5c I will be so pissed if they cave in at 25c,opportunity's lost.What golden parachutes will management get?.I still think other offers may well transpire to something more realistic.Why would Management accept such a low ball offer before the pumped hydrois completed!!!?.And the need for Green energy is only going to accelerate and become more valuable and desirable.
Carpenterjoe
18-08-2022, 02:54 AM
Seems we have a few disgruntled small share holders. Has any small shareholder put themselves forward to rally the troops? It was done really well with NZO. I think someone started an email address or ran a spreadsheet asking small holders to provide basic information, total shareholding, vote Yes or No. Apart from online forums I wouldn't know how to get in contact with other holders.
NZSilver
19-08-2022, 07:53 AM
Genex first, now PTB in trading halt - busy week in my portfolio
AFR reports that it's down to finalising the scheme implementation deed. I fully expect it to be taken over at 25c. Shame I was hoping for a truly long term investment here. Now the "problem" is what I do with all the free funds that will become available? It's quite a big chunk but something tells me that I should perhaps stay cashed up for a while.
I saw an arbitrage opportunity today and found a willing seller at 22c. If the takeover goes through then this is better than anything the bank could offer me in terms of interest. I don't do this very often but I've told myself that I have to take small advantages whenever the opportunity arises.
Commencement of Full Commercial Operations at 50MW/100MWh Bouldercombe Battery Project
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/gnx.asx-2A1486907/
J-Power wants to take it over at 0.27. Still way too low imo but I fear that this takeover offer will go through.
Joshuatree
04-03-2024, 12:53 PM
Great to see some action at last👍👍👍👍
Filthy
05-03-2024, 11:29 AM
this takeover offer will go through.
yep; i think its highly likely silu. just need to decide if I am to sell at the existing levels or wait for 4-6 months to get the extra few cents or not. do you think skip (or another) might be interested in competing with the t/o bid? or maybe eekk out a bit more from Jpower? - also have to figure out where to allocate the funds next; as this was a great long term play in the renewables sector. bit of a shame really.
Joshuatree
06-03-2024, 09:16 PM
J-Power wants to take it over at 0.27. Still way too low imo but I fear that this takeover offer will go through.
Im really disappointed if it does.Was so looking forward to everything operating and "its good feeling green" divs etc. Opportunity cost and opportunity lost.Management will get golden parachutes , performance options credited etc prob? And i would get out about even. Most of my green investments have not been investments.
Looks like J-Power will get GNX at 27.5c unless Skip somehow plays hardball and manages to get a better price for the rest of us. Never have I been more disappointed making money.
Joshuatree
12-04-2024, 12:20 PM
Ditto.Feel like our management have sold out and enriching only themselves,blimen green washers
Carpenterjoe
07-06-2024, 05:43 AM
Great 400 pages or reading,
Page 121 of the TB is interesting, 224m of contractor claims. Not sure why this was not announced to market.
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