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bonne vie
06-10-2016, 11:38 AM
Long time since I posted on ST – rather disruptive couple of years.
I would appreciate thoughts on my conundrum, particularly (but not limited to please) from members who are near or in retirement or may have found themselves in a similar situation with now limited income pre retirement.
Currently I hold 45% cash 55% shares. I manage 60% of my shares –having started my portfolio 2008 and growing via share purchases, reinvesting profits and always participating in DRPs. Shares held in 17 shares and any future share purchases will be from proceeds of existing shares.

I hold a relatively high amount in cash:
1. To be able to ride out 2-3 years of share lows
2. Limited future income – will need to start drawing on it 2018 (4 years pre super)

I am sitting on healthy returns from my share portfolio (even healthier a month ago of course) and notwithstanding having the cash to ride out a downturn I am tossing up to either:
1. Continue to ride out the highs and lows.
2. Sitting on the sidelines 12 -18 months waiting for opportunities to buy back in at 10-15% lower prices. Sell all my shares in 13 of the companies (the likes of SML,FPH, HBL, CEN, MET etc) and retain the more “speculative” shares (BLT,PEB (yes still holding in there),WYN (ouch)) rather than lock in current losses. Retain one I have recently purchased. Option 2 is a riskier strategy because I would be “gambling” on adverse movements being more likely than continuing positives.
(Swapping into cash will mean low interest rates in lieu of dividends but overall should be relatively neutral)

Please don’t ask me for my analysis for considering option 2 – have to admit most is just from reading and gut feeling.
Thanks in advance

stoploss
06-10-2016, 01:04 PM
Hi Bonnie, you are effectively going against a mantra that has seen you do well ..IE: You have made good long term profits by holding good companies . By selling those and holding onto the speculative ones you are opening your self up to further losses. If you are expecting a downturn imo sell the specie losers first . Good companies as Percy will tell you, will continue to good things even when markets are nervous/ in a downtrend.

So to sum it up run your profits and cut your losers is a better strategy . No problem with you taking a % off the table after a few stellar years or the whole lot , but definitely sell the losers .....

bonne vie
06-10-2016, 02:46 PM
Thanks stoploss for your thoughts.

I understand what you say about the good companies - before I posted initially I did an exercise to breakdown between specs/"good" companies contribution to losses between 29 August and 30 September. Not surprisingly the results were the specs contributed 78% of the loss, SML 12% (drop after rights issue announcement) and the good 10%. So while the good ones had performed very well compared to the specs, their value had still decreased (and even more so from the peaks during August) and this is what got me thinking about selling the lot to protect the current values and hopefully being able to re buy lower in the next 12 -18 months.

With the specs, I have thought I should quit them but the situation with each is:
WYN - too late to quit - residual value only $600
BLT - I have made good profits (more than current loss) in the past from BLT which I have put aside in cash. It is my current investment which is running at a loss. I have put 100,000 to sell today. At this stage I am inclined to keep the other 2/3rds because it is one of those shares which is a roller coaster but seems after all these years to be making headway.
PEB - I sold some shares at a loss last year. But I still have a reasonably substantial holding averaging 64c cost - after holding more for 4 years riding the highs and lows I just cant bring myself to sell at its current low. Maybe too emotionally attached -oops. Wish Hancocks and Dentie were still commenting on the PEB thread
Cheers

bonne vie
06-10-2016, 04:16 PM
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:rAkXo2Vu0gwJ:www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm%3Fc_id%3D3%26objectid%3D11723288+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=nz

If the rather large link doesn't work - google "For long term profit ignore short term noise" Richard Stubbs.

Note to self

Interesting article in the NZ herald today.