TLL - TIL Logisitics Group [was BIL - Bethunes Investments]

[whatsup]

Cashed up shell from the old Mowbray Collectables Ltd, could be worth a wee punt, I see that uncle Ron is a small shareholder, nothing to do with its now different direction ( investing is small listed companies ) but a legacy holding from day of yaw !!

[Mod add] Now TIL Logisitics Group by reverse takeover

[Hectorplains]

Cashed up shell from the old Mowbray Collectables Ltd, could be worth a wee punt, I see that uncle Ron is a small shareholder, nothing to do with its now different direction ( investing is small listed companies ) but a legacy holding from day of yaw !!

They're supposed to update the market this month. Capital raising has been flagged. It's trading well below NTA but some big orders sitting there.

[kizame]

Cashed up shell from the old Mowbray Collectables Ltd, could be worth a wee punt, I see that uncle Ron is a small shareholder, nothing to do with its now different direction ( investing is small listed companies ) but a legacy holding from day of yaw !!

and of course the BIL bit, sort of like a rising phoenix,didn't Brierly start out iinvsting in small listed cos.

[Hectorplains]

and of course the BIL bit, sort of like a rising phoenix,didn't Brierly start out iinvsting in small listed cos.
Brierley is really irrelevant beyond the ticker symbol and his holding. The ships run by Chris Swasbrook. He has been around a while, started at Goldmans. He likes a good scrap too - has had very public goes at ex -Pike River board, Carmel Fisher and Cardrona Ski-field etc.

[whatsup]

Bit of buying/interest this week, whatsup with this shell , there should be some ann from the co re the restart and recap sometime shortly, hmmmmmm !

[Hectorplains]

Bit of buying/interest this week, whatsup with this shell , there should be some ann from the co re the restart and recap sometime shortly, hmmmmmm !

Announcement is well overdue. They said in the July presentation that it would be forthcoming in October...

[whatsup]

Can not be too far away, what is expected from BIL, more rebuilding of its cap base IMO until it finds something exciting to invest in so how good in the brains trust here ?

[whatsup]

Interim is out and two investments have been identified but that will need more funds ( $12.5 mil ) from shareholders , there will be a mix of rights issue and new share holders coming on board.
Further ann in a few weeks so watch this space .

[whatsup]

some movement today and the buy order has moved up to the yesterdays sell, interesting, whatsup !

[beetills]

Hopefully they will identify the investments shortly,if so then share price may rise.Only a small holder.

[whatsup]

Hopefully they will identify the investments shortly,if so then share price may rise.Only a small holder.

Yeh and only $1 mil market cap but the recap will be interesting , hmmmmmmm !

[beetills]

Can anybody out there explain to me in plain english and in an abreviated manner what is going to be the end result of their latest announcement.
This is what happens when your highest school achievement is 2 years in the fifth form.

[whatsup]

Can anybody out there explain to me in plain english and in an abreviated manner what is going to be the end result of their latest announcement.
This is what happens when your highest school achievement is 2 years in the fifth form.

Massive back door listing with NZRPG ( Westgate property owner ) where by BIL will own 1% of that group, expect cap raisings and expanding property entity , could be Chase # 2 !!

[beetills]

Massive back door listing with NZRPG ( Westgate property owner ) where by BIL will own 1% of that group, expect cap raisings and expanding property entity , could be Chase # 2 !!
Sounded ok until you mentioned CHASE.

[whatsup]

Moving on up slowly .018 today doubles off its low but the devil is in the detail ( future ) !

[beetills]

Moving on up slowly .018 today doubles off its low but the devil is in the detail ( future ) !
Sold out today after holding for approx 10 days.
This i consider to be a very rare victory,however when you're unemployed and WINZ won't pay out any profit must be taken when it's there.
Now i sit back and await RBC to rise.(not likely)

[whatsup]

Sold out today after holding for approx 10 days.
This i consider to be a very rare victory,however when you're unemployed and WINZ won't pay out any profit must be taken when it's there.
Now i sit back and await RBC to rise.(not likely)

Well done , keep your chin up , your on the right track.

[whatsup]

Hit .02 today a 10 bagger off its last year lows , imho this in going to be very big once the details are recognised and its put to bed as a new entity.

[Cesar]

First time poster but long time reader.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sponsored-stories/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503708&objectid=11824101

NZRPG not only focuses on commercial developments, but seems to be branching out into residential developments. This one is the first one in the pipeline but I know that they have more planned.

[777]

First time poster but long time reader.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sponsored-stories/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503708&objectid=11824101

NZRPG not only focuses on commercial developments, but seems to be branching out into residential developments. This one is the first one in the pipeline but I know that they have more planned.

And totally destroy the village atmosphere of Milford at the same time. I also hear on the grapevine that the apartments are not selling as quickly as they thought.

[whatsup]

Sell down didn't last long, once the details are known and understood this company should be included in the mid capital range of the NZX

[whatsup]

Down 16+% someone selling before the recap issue and the move forward with its rebirth, Im wondering at what price will the issue price be and what ratio ?

[whatsup]

Very good article re Mark Gunton re the back door listing, worth a read imo.

[percy]

Very good article re Mark Gunton re the back door listing, worth a read imo.

Where.???????????????????????????????????????????? ?????

[audiav]

This one?
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11848013

[whatsup]

Where.???????????????????????????????????????????? ?????

Dummmmb me , N Z herald, business section, if this can get off the ground there is a very big pipeline of developments both residential and commercial to work through.
With the proper backing, discipline, timing and good luck this could be a very interesting back door listing, one of the very few, but very hard to value at this stage imo.

[Hectorplains]

Disappointing that this is the best that Chris Swasbrook could do here. BIL shareholders diluted to oblivion, 1 - 100.

[percy]

Dummmmb me , N Z herald, business section, if this can get off the ground there is a very big pipeline of developments both residential and commercial to work through.
With the proper backing, discipline, timing and good luck this could be a very interesting back door listing, one of the very few, but very hard to value at this stage imo.

Yes it will be worth watching.[from a distance].
Not for me.

[percy]

This one?
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11848013

Thank you for the link.

[whatsup]

AGMeeting tomorrow at 3.00, should be very interesting what with the rebirth et al we all should see how we are travelling and how things will unfold for the future.

[whatsup]

NZRG getting plenty of publicity now before the backdoor listing and N Z and Aust insto road show, this could get serous as NZRG has $500 + mil assets , interesting if nothing else but all depends on the insto interest and support.
From what Ive heard the Northwest area is set to grow 125,000 + population over the next 5 years, ( a city the size of Hamilton ) .

[whatsup]

NZRPG deal cancelled due imo to lack of insto interest and asset valuations, back to square one for BIL now, dam !

[beetills]

Got back in today at a lower price than i sold out at.
Don't know what the future holds for BIL,but i'm hoping.

[silverblizzard888]

Got back in today at a lower price than i sold out at.
Don't know what the future holds for BIL,but i'm hoping.

Thats the way the merry go round goes. Next step, follow the shampoo bottles instructions, rinse and repeat.

[beetills]

Is the top man in BIL the same man that turns up on Radio Live on Tuesday nights with Mitch Harris.If so he sounds pretty knowledgable and enthusiastic.Lets hope he transfers these assets to BIL

[Dust]

Is his name Chris? If so yes, also head of Elevation Capital.

[PLYNCH]

http://www.radiolive.co.nz/home/audio/2017/09/the-latest-in-business-with-chris-swasbrook--5th-september-2017.html

[whatsup]

After the last back door listing fail and from what I understand the instos wernt not going for it for what ever reasons , BIL has another backdoor to consider and with a M C of only $1.150 mil there is every chance that eventually something will stick in that regard, T H for a couple of days .

[whatsup]

Another backdoor listing today this time its Transport Investments Ltd, a biggee transport operator established in the 1860's and $300 million turn over, IMHO a well established company with great cash flow.

[PLYNCH]

I am amazed Chris Swasbrook has come up with another company to back into the BIL shell so quickly.

[beetills]

Not a non believer,but why does a successful company like TIL want to list at this time.

[Jerry]

BIL has moved up again on Friday's move to get involved with 'The country's largest private transport and logistics business, Transport Investments, going public with a backdoor listing on the NZX'. What's the haps now?

http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018619470

[youngatheart]

BIL has moved up again on Friday's move to get involved with 'The country's largest private transport and logistics business, Transport Investments, going public with a backdoor listing on the NZX'. What's the haps now?

http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018619470

I listened to the interview and TIL guy seems remarkably upbeat. Current Mcap for BIL is only $2 mil. Yet the deal when done will be $200 mil. Does that mean that BILs share price is massively undervalued? Thoughts please...

[garfy]

Is the probable future listing of TLL, through a BIL listing, a good way to access an investment in, what looks to me, a very successful combination of commercial transport companies? Bethunes seems to be 'drifting', and TIL is looking to list - a good marriage? ...heaven? Interested in comments too.

[garfy]

I m interested in this reverse-takeover?/backdoor listing? TIL Transport Investments Ltd is a big and successful company, $300+ turnover, a company made up of 8 groups - Hooker Pacific, TNL, Pacific Fuel Haulage, TIL freight, Roadstar, McAuleys Transport, MOVE logistics, and NZL. It transports - 65% of NZ's crude oil; 60% NZ's petrol; 47% NZ's LPG; 55% NZ's mussels, 20% NZ's Bitumen; 50% NZ's wine crop. Has storage and warehousing. If the proposed 'merger' goes ahead, BIL will ultimately become TLL, and a new directorate will be appointed, consisting of essentially TIL appointees.

How best to invest in this proposed company? Buy BIL shares now, accepting that there will be a large scaling back in these shares - 1:245..... Or just wait until the new TLL is listed on the NZX? My lack of business acumen is exposed.....

[hardt]

I m interested in this reverse-takeover?/backdoor listing? TIL Transport Investments Ltd is a big and successful company, $300+ turnover, a company made up of 8 groups - Hooker Pacific, TNL, Pacific Fuel Haulage, TIL freight, Roadstar, McAuleys Transport, MOVE logistics, and NZL. It transports - 65% of NZ's crude oil; 60% NZ's petrol; 47% NZ's LPG; 55% NZ's mussels, 20% NZ's Bitumen; 50% NZ's wine crop. Has storage and warehousing. If the proposed 'merger' goes ahead, BIL will ultimately become TLL, and a new directorate will be appointed, consisting of essentially TIL appointees.

How best to invest in this proposed company? Buy BIL shares now, accepting that there will be a large scaling back in these shares - 1:245..... Or just wait until the new TLL is listed on the NZX? My lack of business acumen is exposed.....

115,060,279 Shares in BIL outstanding
$0.019 a share
254.19 to 1 consolidation translates to $4.83 per share
452,654 shares after consolidation for current BIL shareholders
73,000,000 shares will then be issued at around $1.50
Rest will be made up through banking facilities and wholesale investors.

Current BIL holders will end up owning 0.614% of Transport Investments which is valued at $200m.
=$2.186m current BIL price
=$200m*0.00614
=$1.228m equity in TIL
=43.82% "premium"

I will most certainly not be a buyer of BIL... possibly Transport Investments though.

[whatsup]

I m interested in this reverse-takeover?/backdoor listing? TIL Transport Investments Ltd is a big and successful company, $300+ turnover, a company made up of 8 groups - Hooker Pacific, TNL, Pacific Fuel Haulage, TIL freight, Roadstar, McAuleys Transport, MOVE logistics, and NZL. It transports - 65% of NZ's crude oil; 60% NZ's petrol; 47% NZ's LPG; 55% NZ's mussels, 20% NZ's Bitumen; 50% NZ's wine crop. Has storage and warehousing. If the proposed 'merger' goes ahead, BIL will ultimately become TLL, and a new directorate will be appointed, consisting of essentially TIL appointees.

How best to invest in this proposed company? Buy BIL shares now, accepting that there will be a large scaling back in these shares - 1:245..... Or just wait until the new TLL is listed on the NZX? My lack of business acumen is exposed.....


garf, BIL in not a one trick pony , if you research the info that was released re the last back door listing and understand what as proposed then you will see , there was/is still is 3 proposals to this back door listing as well.

[garfy]

Thank you both, hardt & whatsup, for taking the trouble to wise me up to a few 'alternative facts' (not in a Trump sense as used here!). I was more impressed at the TIL side and not looking hard enough at 'the vehicle, BIL. But the proposed TLL company still impresses me. Patience is required, and in fact there is some time before the arrangement(s) are finalised. Thanks agin.

[Snow Leopard]

Following the money what I actually see here is the existing owners of TLL leveraging up the company debt to take out $90m of cash and retain about 90% ownership of the listed company.

Anybody got access to the TLL annual financial results for the last few years to make a reasonable guess of value?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[blackcap]

Following the money what I actually see here is the existing owners of TLL leveraging up the company debt to take out $90m of cash and retain about 90% ownership of the listed company.

Anybody got access to the TLL annual financial results for the last few years to make a reasonable guess of value?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Hi PT, that does seem interesting. Is this the rationale for the backdoor listing do you think? I see they are borrowing $100m and then using 90 odd mill to pay out TIL shareholders.
Where do you get the bit that TIL shareholders retain 90% of the shareholding? I cannot find that there myself.
Cheers,

[Snow Leopard]

Hi PT, that does seem interesting. Is this the rationale for the backdoor listing do you think? I see they are borrowing $100m and then using 90 odd mill to pay out TIL shareholders.
Where do you get the bit that TIL shareholders retain 90% of the shareholding? I cannot find that there myself.
Cheers,

If I read the doc right then with the 'New BIL' shares:

approx 0.5M go to current 'Old BIL' holders;
approx 73.3M to TLL owners;
a minimum of approx 6M to new investors.

Which would give current TLL holders 91.6% (or less) of 'New BIL' which is:
indebted TLL.

There you go
Paper Tiger

[blackcap]

If I read the doc right then with the 'New BIL' shares:

approx 0.5M go to current 'Old BIL' holders;
approx 73.3M to TLL owners;
a minimum of approx 6M to new investors.

Which would give current TLL holders 91.6% (or less) of 'New BIL' which is:
indebted TLL.

There you go
Paper Tiger

Hi Paper Tiger,

Thanks for that. Yes it does look that way does it not. So the new board, get a company that is now indebted, whereas previously it was not. Which to me then questions why list, and how can the board be on board (pardon the pun) with this deal. Where is growth going to come from if the company is not going to be able to utilise this new cash. I guess though it is the bank taking on the new risk at the expense of current shareholders. New shareholders.... buyer beware applies.

[Scrunch]

For a deal this size there a bunch of advisors in the background. One of them will have done wacc calculations and suggested the optimum debt capital mix hence loading up the debt not a no debt ready for expansion model. But BC is correct buyer beware because the vendor holds all the cards at the moment.

[beetills]

I am thicker than i look.
I currently have 200k shares in BIL.I CAN WORK OUT THE TIL SHAREHOLDING.
What do i have in new BIL if anything and what approx ill they be worth.?

[whatsup]

bee, read todays ann its all there, interesting future imo .

[Snow Leopard]

bee, read todays ann its all there, interesting future imo .

The Tortoise and The Hare :eek2: !! ??

[whatsup]

The Tortoise and The Hare :eek2: !! ??

slowly slowly catches the monkey !

[Snow Leopard]

slowly slowly catches the monkey !

Make of it what you will:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpJmpClJi4E

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Jerry]

Hi Blackcap,
I see the BIL market announcement (https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5492103be4b02709971aafb5/t/59f2a8288e7b0f2fb067753c/1509075006186/268446.pdf)says...
purchase price of $200 million (subject to adjustments for net debt and movements in working capital),
I had hoped this meant BIL were not as green as they were cabbage-looking and the board of new BIL would not agree to such a rort as outlined by PT.
Whaddaya think? Have I understood this correctly? I must admit, reading the expert interpretation from PT I was horrified.

[whatsup]

Bil deal was completed as per yesterdays Special General Meeting a 254 for 1 share consolidation is taking place atm and the " new " company TIL is to relist tomorrow in the transport sector, watch for a rerating which should happen as TIL is now a biggee on the NZX board with plenty of anns to come.
The old BIL will still be a listed with more to come there also, good interesting company for the future developments imo.

[Jerry]

OK. Newby question...
on 26/10/17 there's a trading halt on BIL. TLL share price around the $2.54 mark. BUT suddenly the shares on TLL are around the $5 mark.
I get doled out my two pennorth of shares in TLL (because I hold Bethunes). I then discover I have paid $5.07 for the TLL.
On 7/12/17 Trading halt lifted and the shares go back down about $2.75

How does that work? Obviously it works to someone else's advantage, not the Bethunes shareholders! :-(

[winner69]

Jerry ......whatever has happened it seems $2.75 being Friday close is a pretty good price for something they thought was only $1.50.

Not a BIL/TLL shareholder

[Jerry]

Yes, and I would have been better pleased to pay $2.75 for them rather than be force-fed them at $5.07. :confused:

[blackcap]

Yes, and I would have been better pleased to pay $2.75 for them rather than be force-fed them at $5.07. :confused:

How did you pay $5.07 for your TLL shares?

[hardt]

OK. Newby question...
on 26/10/17 there's a trading halt on BIL. TLL share price around the $2.54 mark. BUT suddenly the shares on TLL are around the $5 mark.
I get doled out my two pennorth of shares in TLL (because I hold Bethunes). I then discover I have paid $5.07 for the TLL.
On 7/12/17 Trading halt lifted and the shares go back down about $2.75

How does that work? Obviously it works to someone else's advantage, not the Bethunes shareholders! :-(

Jerry, you were notified this was going to happen!



115,060,279 Shares in BIL outstanding
$0.019 a share
254.19 to 1 consolidation translates to $4.83 per share
452,654 shares after consolidation for current BIL shareholders
73,000,000 shares will then be issued at around $1.50
Rest will be made up through banking facilities and wholesale investors.

Current BIL holders will end up owning 0.614% of Transport Investments which is valued at $200m.
=$2.186m current BIL
=$200m*0.00614
=$1.228m equity in TIL
=43.82% "premium"

I will most certainly not be a buyer of BIL... possibly Transport Investments though.

[hardt]

How did you pay $5.07 for your TLL shares?

He must have bought BIL at 2 cents...

[Jerry]

Thank you Hardt, I see your post now. A very clear explanation.
Not unhappy to have shares in TLL, though there is not much detail in the Listing Profile as to give guidance on the intrinsic value of shares.

[hardt]

Thank you Hardt, I see your post now. A very clear explanation.
Not unhappy to have shares in TLL, though there is not much detail in the Listing Profile as to give guidance on the intrinsic value of shares.

http://www.til.kiwi/uploads/FINAL%20-%20TIL%20Logistics%20Group%20-%20Woodward%20Investor%20Presentation.pdf

2 years have been forecast

Revenue growth at 1.8% CAGR
Earnings growth at 46.6% CAGR

Earnings Multiple



TTM
43.92


FY18E
26.29


FY19E
20.36



Dividend coming in FY19... at current mkt cap will yield 2.6%.

[winner69]

http://www.til.kiwi/uploads/FINAL%20-%20TIL%20Logistics%20Group%20-%20Woodward%20Investor%20Presentation.pdf

2 years have been forecast

Revenue growth at 1.8% CAGR
Earnings growth at 46.6% CAGR

Earnings Multiple



TTM
43.92


FY18E
26.29


FY19E
20.36



Dividend coming in FY19... at current mkt cap will yield 2.6%.

F18 PE about the same as Mainfreight ......

[winner69]

Markets often don’t like these sort of things - However, the full year result is expected to be below PFI, due to some headwinds and a few unanticipated operational factors not included in the PFI forecasts.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/320563

[winner69]

I think the correction actually makes the story worse ...only sales are holding up and expenses a problem

They need to be careful what they say eh

[youngatheart]

Half year results out on Monday, any predictions?

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/347208

Another year, another downgrade for this backdoor job.

[Ggcc]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/347208

Another year, another downgrade for this backdoor job.
Just spoke with a friend who is invested in this company. He believes it is hugely undervalued and is looking at investing more........... I don't know what to believe.

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/347208

Another year, another downgrade for this backdoor job.

That’s quite a drop in ebitda compared to last year ...almost half as much


Taking the above into account, TIL is expecting 1H20 EBITDA of approximately $8.4 - $8.8 million (1H19: $14.1 million).

[Balance]

Just spoke with a friend who is invested in this company. He believes it is hugely undervalued and is looking at investing more........... I don't know what to believe.

Famous last words.

Never invest in backdoor jobs.

[winner69]

At the recent ASM they said -

Expecting an improved performance in FY20, driven by organic growth, new customer contracts, additional warehousing capacity, and benefits of FY19 investment in SLTG


No mention of reduced profits

[Rowdy Flat]

Just spoke with a friend who is invested in this company. He believes it is hugely undervalued and is looking at investing more........... I don't know what to believe.

I'd believe the numbers, unless your friend can provide a compelling counterstory has to exactly how it's "hugely undervalued."

[Balance]

I'd believe the numbers, unless your friend can provide a compelling counterstory has to exactly how it's "hugely undervalued."

One of the founding directors could not get out of there fast enough - selling his shareholding down to zero as quickly as he could. What does that tell you?

Old saying comes to mind 'You sleep with a badly kept dog, you get fleas'.

In this case, you sleep with a backdoor produced dog, you may get herpes too instead of just fleas!

[Rowdy Flat]

"In addition, a new position of Company Secretary & General Counsel has been created, which will be filled by Charles Bolt (most recently Company Secretary & General Counsel of Fletcher Building) from the end of January 2020. Charles’ appointment is expected to result in further improvements in TIL’s management of its customer contracts and commercial matters."

Odd that'd you get a guy from FBU, who have been appalling in their "management of ... customer contracts and commercial matters." Another big salary on the books.

[Balance]

"In addition, a new position of Company Secretary & General Counsel has been created, which will be filled by Charles Bolt (most recently Company Secretary & General Counsel of Fletcher Building) from the end of January 2020. Charles’ appointment is expected to result in further improvements in TIL’s management of its customer contracts and commercial matters."

Odd that'd you get a guy from FBU, who have been appalling in their "management of ... customer contracts and commercial matters." Another big salary on the books.

Dogs attract fleas.

Backdoor ones attract mongrels with herpes?

[Rowdy Flat]

One of the founding directors could not get out of there fast enough - selling his shareholding down to zero as quickly as he could. What does that tell you?

Old saying comes to mind 'You sleep with a badly kept dog, you get fleas'.

In this case, you sleep with a backdoor produced dog, you may get herpes too instead of just fleas!

Thank you for that lovely analogy... Before that Bethunes longsuffering shareholders got screwed in the backdoor listing process too.

[Ggcc]

I'd believe the numbers, unless your friend can provide a compelling counterstory has to exactly how it's "hugely undervalued."
My problem is my friend is hugely successful with his investments. He is one of the top 50 shareholders in HGH

[Balance]

My problem is my friend is hugely successful with his investments. He is one of the top 50 shareholders in HGH

If he has a perfect investment track record, by all means sleep with this dog. Could be that this dog needs a wash and rinse.

[Rowdy Flat]

If he has a perfect investment track record, by all means sleep with this dog. Could be that this dog needs a wash and rinse.

Never met anyone with a perfect record. As with the horses; you tend to hear a lot about people's winners and not such about the flops.

[Ggcc]

If he has a perfect investment track record, by all means sleep with this dog. Could be that this dog needs a wash and rinse.

Definitely not perfect, but he is definitely on the ball. Told me to bail Wynyard at any cost...... I did not listen.

He has managed to turn a few hundred thousand into millions over the last 5 years. He invested mostly in boring stocks. He has only started releasing the purse strings and has an income exceeding $500 per day. He is huge in Ryman as well.

[Ggcc]

So so far the dog is correct am looking at dipping my toes at these values, but please please someone explain why I should not. A family member I just met actually works for them and explained they are really busy and doing well and expanding. He is not a money person, but I feel that is great to hear. But I do feel a capital raise happening in near future as with many other investments

[Cyclical]

So so far the dog is correct am looking at dipping my toes at these values, but please please someone explain why I should not. A family member I just met actually works for them and explained they are really busy and doing well and expanding. He is not a money person, but I feel that is great to hear. But I do feel a capital raise happening in near future as with many other investments

I've been eyeing this one up too, but the way it keeps tumbling just looks very ominous. And there looks to be very little in the way of support. I wonder how their conversation with ASB is going...? Mainfrieght or someone might start to take a look...

[nztx]

So so far the dog is correct am looking at dipping my toes at these values, but please please someone explain why I should not. A family member I just met actually works for them and explained they are really busy and doing well and expanding. He is not a money person, but I feel that is great to hear. But I do feel a capital raise happening in near future as with many other investments


If they are doing well as you suggest, why would they need to capital raise ?

[Ggcc]

If they are doing well as you suggest, why would they need to capital raise ?
Just in regards that companies are all on their back foot in regards to needing capital. This virus is an unknown for all companies. I met this family member two weeks before all this took place and I should have mentioned that.

[Ggcc]

I've been eyeing this one up too, but the way it keeps tumbling just looks very ominous. And there looks to be very little in the way of support. I wonder how their conversation with ASB is going...? Mainfrieght or someone might start to take a look...
Exactly that is what I want to hear as well

[nztx]

Just in regards that companies are all on their back foot in regards to needing capital. This virus is an unknown for all companies. I met this family member two weeks before all this took place and I should have mentioned that.

I dont disagree with your comments on Capital Raises
I would be concerned with 1H20 Report & Commentary
IRFS inflated 1H20 by +$15m & yet this still resulted in Negative 1H20 NPAT and cancelled dividend
IRFS probably further extenuates Gearing ratios, as must be the case with most operators with hefty plant/leases
OK it was probably there but hidden previously, but for the Beancounter's fancy footwork now with this change
I do note that the 6 months saw deterioration in Working Capital over FY19
Softer markets hinted at & perhaps with Level4 Virus, some divisions closed down wont be helping in future periods
I wouldn't discount a Capital Raise in next 6-12 months either to sure things up

SHF hasn't really changed much between FY & end 1H20 ; Net Working Cap excluding IRFS fancy footwork
appears Lower. What will another 6 months show ?
Cash & Revenue is a necessity to pay all those heft plant & vehicle leases monthly



Even with the above TLL has been on watchlist & have added to small holding in recent days

[gains]

It's been awhile since anyone's discussed TIL on here, what's our thoughts on them?

[Snow Leopard]

It's been awhile since anyone's discussed TIL on here, what's our thoughts on them?

Same as yours, we think, but remind us what you think about them.

PS: Selamat Datang ke ShareTrader

[gains]

Same as yours, we think, but remind us what you think about them.

PS: Selamat Datang ke ShareTrader

Thanks Snow Leopard.. it's a pleasure to be here.

My thoughts on TLL... well I haven't formed anything solid yet. Looking at a couple different metrics they seem undervalued on the market but that's not enough for me to jump the gun on them. Their results are due soon though but otherwise I haven't seen much (or anything) about them

[nztx]

Thanks Snow Leopard.. it's a pleasure to be here.

My thoughts on TLL... well I haven't formed anything solid yet. Looking at a couple different metrics they seem undervalued on the market but that's not enough for me to jump the gun on them. Their results are due soon though but otherwise I haven't seen much (or anything) about them


I looked in earlier with a small holding, then Mar 20 Div got canned and SP slid subsequently so out
SP looks expensive on NTA & potential short term Div prospects - but who knows what next Report will bring
I look at SP peaks troughs & trends balancing against current & future likely economic conditions.
Does the industry / sector pay reasonable returns to risk ?
A Capital intensive type of sector, I was surprised a Cap Raise didn't come
but I'm not an Adviser & looking from a distance with no current holding

Prospects elsewhere looked more enticing & rewarding back months ago, thankfully..

A return to normal trading (if that still is to happen in current conditions) and reinstatement of past div patterns
may well mean worth a look in again here

[Cyclical]

Thanks Snow Leopard.. it's a pleasure to be here.

My thoughts on TLL... well I haven't formed anything solid yet. Looking at a couple different metrics they seem undervalued on the market but that's not enough for me to jump the gun on them. Their results are due soon though but otherwise I haven't seen much (or anything) about them

The market was pleasantly surprised I think with the June and July guidance announcements, at which point I sold out for a tidy little profit. Dipped my toe back in last week at 71c but clearly too early...I'm not sure why it's pulled back since and quite a bit off the recent high...might have to do some averaging down. There is just no liquidity though...a mere $10k passing hands today.

[gains]

The market was pleasantly surprised I think with the June and July guidance announcements, at which point I sold out for a tidy little profit. Dipped my toe back in last week at 71c but clearly too early...I'm not sure why it's pulled back since and quite a bit off the recent high...might have to do some averaging down. There is just no liquidity though...a mere $10k passing hands today.

I decided to tip my toes in yesterday @ $0.66, I thought I got a sweet deal until today dropped further. Maybe a day early but results are due very soon. I might, or might not, be a very happy man.

The market was pleasantly surprised at the June/July guidance but we've seen similar with main freight and how they appear to be doing exceptionally well despite covid ruining (almost) everything. That was the catalyst for me investing in TLL, from my research they should do relatively well.

The big burden for TLL is the debt but I feel this isn't as great a concern (with how low interest rates are) so should be a surprising result despite the disruption.

[Southern Lad]

Annual results due for release Thursday 27 August:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/357177

[nztx]

I decided to tip my toes in yesterday @ $0.66, I thought I got a sweet deal until today dropped further. Maybe a day early but results are due very soon. I might, or might not, be a very happy man.

The market was pleasantly surprised at the June/July guidance but we've seen similar with main freight and how they appear to be doing exceptionally well despite covid ruining (almost) everything. That was the catalyst for me investing in TLL, from my research they should do relatively well.

The big burden for TLL is the debt but I feel this isn't as great a concern (with how low interest rates are) so should be a surprising result despite the disruption.


Bear in mind that $178 Mil of Debt / Liabilities are the Bean Counter's mythical formulations of imaginary Lease Liabilities at interim 31 Dec 2019

A deviation from the 30 Jun 2019 comparatives reported. But then must be expected with what could be high cost plant / vehicles.

Presumably the counterbalancing entries for any portion not run through P&L must be buried within Plant Property & Equipment at 31 Dec 2019

Including the forward Lease nonsense obviously shoots the ratios of % Shareholder Funds to Total Assets out to the ridiculously scant % levels

Intangibles are not all that excessive

Possibly easier to eliminate the Lease nonsense & forward Liabilities out to get any guide for comparison

NPAT is fairly small on Turnover through the job -- to point one would hope there weren't too many extreme Taranaki Headwinds in any one period

Working Capital in the 6 months looks to have deteriorated slightly (after removing Lease liability nonsense)

Depreciation possibly reserves considerable revenues cash in this sector nevertheless, but unchanged Equity could have suggested
some strengthening & Cap Raise could have warranted Board's attention especially with Covid-19 clouds blowing in.

Based on SP to NTA, & to Earnings / Div - my gut feeling leans to overpriced by Mr Market, which seems to have been bourne out by the long slide down from the buck or so south from Dec 19 forward to more recent times.

An excess of Tail winds across many days of a reporting period may be required to help ease the load up towards summit & across the buck line again.

[Jerry]

Is TLL not a sort of franchise, where owner-drivers come under their umbrella company? If so the company would not actually have much NTA itself.

[gains]

2018 annual report states the CEO at the time was looking to increase the number of owner-drivers in the fleet (that's all I got sorry):

https://www.til.kiwi/assets/uploads/final-til-logistics-group-annual-report.pdf

[Cyclical]

Is TLL not a sort of franchise, where owner-drivers come under their umbrella company? If so the company would not actually have much NTA itself.


2018 annual report states the CEO at the time was looking to increase the number of owner-drivers in the fleet (that's all I got sorry):

https://www.til.kiwi/assets/uploads/final-til-logistics-group-annual-report.pdf

The careers button on their website redirects to trademe where there are a number of owner driver positions available, plus a few others. The trucks that aren't owned by the drivers are probably leased, which I guess leaves property and other plant as the main tangibles. Counting down to Thursday's result.

[Cyclical]

Well, of course they say follow the money...it seems to me the money (small change really) can smell something sweet coming on Thursday...

[gains]

Well, of course they say follow the money...it seems to me the money (small change really) can smell something sweet coming on Thursday...

I get the same hunch, there's good growth in the SP this morning. Lets see what we can get :t_up:

[nztx]

I get the same hunch, there's good growth in the SP this morning. Lets see what we can get :t_up:


but there was good growth in a number of other company SP's as well
aside from that coming up to reporting sometimes sees some gains

[gains]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358742

Results are out..

[Cyclical]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358742

Results are out..

The key bits:

•EBITDA (pre-NZ IFRS16) of $26.5m, in line with guidance of $25m to $27m.
•Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) of $2.0m. Pre-NZ IFRS16 adjustments, NPAT was $6.0m, up 50% on pcp.
•Margins in line with or above prior year for all divisions, excluding Freight which underwent review and reset in FY20.
•Adverse market conditions in 1H20 and COVID-19 in 2H20 had a material impact on all TIL’s businesses.
•Year on year earnings growth for three divisions - Warehousing & Logistics, International and Specialist. Improving performance from Freight in 2H, after a disappointing 1H. Bulk Liquids materially impacted by reduced fuel demand during lockdown (pcp included a number of one-off revenue benefits).
•No final dividend has been declared.
•Focus on cost reductions and right sizing the business for economic slowdown.
•Expecting recessionary downturn in FY21, with flow on effects for TIL’s businesses. The company confirms its view that EBITDA for FY21 is expected to be at least that of the FY20 result of $57.4m post NZ IFRS16 adjustments.

[Cyclical]

One wonders where they would be without the $10.7m in wage subsidies...

You'd expect a bit more than $2m ($6m pre IFRS16) profit on sales of $333.8m, but sounds like they are headed in the right direction and, given the conditions, at least they didn't make a loss. Personally I'm happy they aren't paying a divvy at this point.

[winner69]

The key bits:

•EBITDA (pre-NZ IFRS16) of $26.5m, in line with guidance of $25m to $27m.
•Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) of $2.0m. Pre-NZ IFRS16 adjustments, NPAT was $6.0m, up 50% on pcp.
•Margins in line with or above prior year for all divisions, excluding Freight which underwent review and reset in FY20.
•Adverse market conditions in 1H20 and COVID-19 in 2H20 had a material impact on all TIL’s businesses.
•Year on year earnings growth for three divisions - Warehousing & Logistics, International and Specialist. Improving performance from Freight in 2H, after a disappointing 1H. Bulk Liquids materially impacted by reduced fuel demand during lockdown (pcp included a number of one-off revenue benefits).
•No final dividend has been declared.
•Focus on cost reductions and right sizing the business for economic slowdown.
•Expecting recessionary downturn in FY21, with flow on effects for TIL’s businesses. The company confirms its view that EBITDA for FY21 is expected to be at least that of the FY20 result of $57.4m post NZ IFRS16 adjustments.

Not very consistent with their use of different ebitdas

$26.5m this year but F21 going to be bad but going to be at least $57.4m

Should just stick to NPAT going forward - no confusion then

[nztx]

The smell of further Dividend being withheld must have been what was in the Air

All in the name of further overly cautious view of Lady Covid still about to reek further far reaching havoc

This in the face of rather more encouraging news being spun out of the stable just recently

A shame such level of conservatism wasn't exercised in the 'Spin the box of tricks into the BIL Shell' to make things look rather more solid back then - retaining more value in what was being spun in with shareholder funds, rather than extracting it could have painted a far more rosy picture

Will the overly conservative approach buy further or any SP Growth or instead cause some to flee to more well dressed Companies willing to throw a few pennies in dividends into Shareholder's hands ?

At a time when other companies who withheld or cancelled dividends in the earlier round are now resuming distributions, is there really any excuse for keeping the doors to the dividend vault bolted shut this round on such flimsy judgements being vended out this time ?

It's difficult to see even a shadow of another Mainfreight morphing out of the TLL conglomerate any time soon based on recent judgements & hand outs from the TLL Boardroom table..

[Cyclical]

It's difficult to see even a shadow of another Mainfreight morphing out of the TLL conglomerate any time soon based on recent judgements & hand outs from the TLL Boardroom table..

We live in hope that Mainfreight might see some synergies...

[Ggcc]

Well the share is back to $1 and no news...... Who knew.

[Cyclical]

Well the share is back to $1 and no news...... Who knew.

Well I'll be... Up from 95c at previous close on only $10k turnover...haven't looked at turnover for last week yet, but someone clearly likes it...I wonder what gives. Sold my last batch at 70c end of August...#regret.

[nztx]

Well I'll be... Up from 95c at previous close on only $10k turnover...haven't looked at turnover for last week yet, but someone clearly likes it...I wonder what gives. Sold my last batch at 70c end of August...#regret.

Me too a while back .. but I saw better prospects elsewhere.

FRE is leaping ahead, so guess TLL following suit may have been logical .. ;)

At least no Cap Raise so far with TLL

[Ggcc]

Another 5 cents up on no news and very light turnover....... It maybe a capital raise coming up..... I just find it plain weird...

[Ggcc]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TLL/363848/335930.pdf

Ok glad I'm not the only one

[nztx]

and Bang - that seems to have put a damper on recent SP rise:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364464

"Pacific Fuel Haul receives notice of industrial action

Pacific Fuel Haul (PFH), a division of TIL Logistics Group Limited, advises that it has been issued with a notice of strike action by First Union, which represents approximately 65% of PFH’s truck driving personnel. The notice proposes a complete withdrawal of labour from 1500 hours on 18 December 2020 until 2359 hours on 24 December 2020.

Pacific Fuel Haul has been in involved in collective employment bargaining with the Union since July 2020.

Despite the challenges of COVID-19 and the impact on the business, Pacific Fuel Haul has retained all its drivers over this time. Additionally, the company is offering an increased pay offer to drivers, equal to the increase in the Consumer Price Index, which it believes to be fair and reasonable, given the current environment.

CEO of Pacific Fuel Haul, Stephen Owles, said: “We are concerned that the Union has deliberately targeted a time that will cause the most disruption to our customers and the everyday New Zealanders they serve, in the week before Christmas.

“December is one of our busiest months, with high demand for fuel deliveries to service stations, farms and businesses throughout New Zealand. We are concerned at the impact strike action will have on these businesses and their customers, in what has already been a challenging year.

“Disappointingly, this strategy seems to have become the modus operandi for the Union, with industrial action also notified at this time of the year, just two years ago.

“Pacific Fuel Haul has made it clear it is open to discussions and has indeed, tabled an increased pay offer for drivers. We have been engaged in good faith discussions with the Union and remain positive of a mutually acceptable outcome.“

Pacific Fuel Haul has a history of paying some of the highest rates in the industry, as evidenced by its ability to attract and retain good staff. Following three months of training at an average cost of $28,000 per driver funded by PFH, most drivers are currently earning upwards of $100,000 per year.

Alan Pearson, CEO of TIL said that strike notice was not currently expected to have any material effect on TIL’s results."

[Ggcc]

and Bang - that seems to have put a damper on recent SP rise:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364464

"Pacific Fuel Haul receives notice of industrial action

Pacific Fuel Haul (PFH), a division of TIL Logistics Group Limited, advises that it has been issued with a notice of strike action by First Union, which represents approximately 65% of PFH’s truck driving personnel. The notice proposes a complete withdrawal of labour from 1500 hours on 18 December 2020 until 2359 hours on 24 December 2020.

Pacific Fuel Haul has been in involved in collective employment bargaining with the Union since July 2020.

Despite the challenges of COVID-19 and the impact on the business, Pacific Fuel Haul has retained all its drivers over this time. Additionally, the company is offering an increased pay offer to drivers, equal to the increase in the Consumer Price Index, which it believes to be fair and reasonable, given the current environment.

CEO of Pacific Fuel Haul, Stephen Owles, said: “We are concerned that the Union has deliberately targeted a time that will cause the most disruption to our customers and the everyday New Zealanders they serve, in the week before Christmas.

“December is one of our busiest months, with high demand for fuel deliveries to service stations, farms and businesses throughout New Zealand. We are concerned at the impact strike action will have on these businesses and their customers, in what has already been a challenging year.

“Disappointingly, this strategy seems to have become the modus operandi for the Union, with industrial action also notified at this time of the year, just two years ago.

“Pacific Fuel Haul has made it clear it is open to discussions and has indeed, tabled an increased pay offer for drivers. We have been engaged in good faith discussions with the Union and remain positive of a mutually acceptable outcome.“

Pacific Fuel Haul has a history of paying some of the highest rates in the industry, as evidenced by its ability to attract and retain good staff. Following three months of training at an average cost of $28,000 per driver funded by PFH, most drivers are currently earning upwards of $100,000 per year.

Alan Pearson, CEO of TIL said that strike notice was not currently expected to have any material effect on TIL’s results."
I just found out that I have family working at TLL. I am surprised that people find $100,000 deemed as not enough.

I must admit I do not know industry standard pay, but find it interesting that during COVID times and when the company did everything possible to retain staff, that unions want strike action to happen?????

[Cyclical]

I just found out that I have family working at TLL. I am surprised that people find $100,000 deemed as not enough.

I must admit I do not know industry standard pay, but find it interesting that during COVID times and when the company did everything possible to retain staff, that unions want strike action to happen?????
Wow, I'm surprised these are 100k+ jobs. Crikey I might have to go ask for a payrise. My company would be screwed if I went on strike right now...great plan. This kind of union behaviour reminds me of the good old days with ferry strikes just in time for the holiday season.

[winner69]

Wonder how many hours a week they need to work to get the 100k?

[ThaiJohn]

I've had exposure to PFH through various businesses in the past. I got to know many of their drivers well. They always push for more money around xmas time. Long term drivers are taking home in excess of 100K, some earn 120K+ per year. 60+ hours per week to bring in that sort of cash and then you have T5 and Double time for some holiday periods. Relatively easy work but if they drop a shandy ( petrol station talk..diesel into a 91 underground tank sort of thing) you can kiss your job goodbye.

[Ggcc]

I've had exposure to PFH through various businesses in the past. I got to know many of their drivers well. They always push for more money around xmas time. Long term drivers are taking home in excess of 100K, some earn 120K+ per year. 60+ hours per week to bring in that sort of cash and then you have T5 and Double time for some holiday periods. Relatively easy work but if they drop a shandy ( petrol station talk..diesel into a 91 underground tank sort of thing) you can kiss your job goodbye.

Thanks for your view on things. Interesting and yes I agree about the shandy comment.

I would however like to know their base hourly rate as the company can put a spin on things. $100,000 per year is huge, but as winner said how many hours do they need to do to get that sort of money.

The family member I have involved with TLL says the company looks well after him, especially with COVID and he is happy, however TLL do need more drivers.

[nztx]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TLL/365392/337854.pdf

December Share Update:

P.2:

'We are pleased with our company’s progress to
date, with our first quarter results ahead of the
same time last year due, in part, to pent up demand
and seasonality as well as a positive recovery since
lockdown.

Based on this, and dependent on the timing of a
large windfarm project which is currently expected
to be undertaken in the current financial year,
the Board has confirmed its earlier guidance that
EBITDA for FY21 is expected to be at least that of
the FY20 post IFRS-16 result of $57.4m'


A Rough Interpretation:

1. We are back at work again & making favourable noises
2. Be grateful that you lot didn't get hit over the head for a Cap Raise
3. We are not yet back to spitting out a dividend

;)

[nztx]

HY 31 Dec 2020:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/368007

"The Board retains a prudent approach to cash management and no interim dividend has been declared. A final FY21 dividend will be considered subject to trading conditions and financial performance continuing to improve."

Looks like a long wait for patient holders - in meantime will SP slide below the buck and further south against the tide .. ? ;)