TLT - Tilt Renewables

[Snow Leopard]

Part of the demerger of TPW - TrustPower and due to start trading on 28-Oct-16.

Whoever named it Tilt has as wry a sense of humour as myself. :)

Very funny indeed.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

I have on a per share basis:

Net Tangibles : $1.29;
Free cash Flow : $0.22;
Profit: $0.057.

and some new windmills to stick in the ground over the next few years.

http://www.freedigitalphotos.net/images/previews/windmill-toy-on-grass-10058441.jpg

But my information is a little sparse.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Dej]

I have on a per share basis:

Net Tangibles : $1.29;
Free cash Flow : $0.22;
Profit: $0.057.

and some new windmills to stick in the ground over the next few years.

http://www.freedigitalphotos.net/images/previews/windmill-toy-on-grass-10058441.jpg

But my information is a little sparse.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Hey PT,

Are you a holder of Tilt? Am currently looking at them due to their expansion into Australia with projects totally approximately 1400 MW of expansion.

[Joshuatree]

Tilt get a mention in "under the radar", thanks silu

http://www.genexpower.com.au/uploads/6/6/1/2/6612684/under_the_radar_report_-_20.04.17.pdf (http://www.genexpower.com.au/uploads/6/6/1/2/6612684/under_the_radar_report_-_20.04.17.pdf)

[silu]

dej & JT. Looks like great minds think alike. I'm looking at Tilt and PEA.ASX (Pacific Energy) at the moment before work sucks me back in. On first look PEA looks like a good little bet.

[Dej]

dej & JT. Looks like great minds think alike. I'm looking at Tilt and PEA.ASX (Pacific Energy) at the moment before work sucks me back in. On first look PEA looks like a good little bet.

It's because we all are looking for "green" investments!!

[silu]

It's because we all are looking for "green" investments!!

Green for the planet. And green as in dollar, dollar bills y'all :)

[macduffy]

Lack of wind in Australia!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-24/lack-of-wind-a-big-blow-for-infigin-and-consumers/8646894?section=business

Implications for TLT and therefore IFT?

[huxley]

Update today - lower wind volumes in nz and Australia - ebitdaf down $10-12 million

[huxley]

I see Paul's buying up today, must be a good sign.

[gbogo]

Expecting some positives on this stock shortly.

[hardt]

Expecting some positives on this stock shortly.

Holding this one patiently waiting for that mammoth pipeline to come to fruition... hopefully seamlessly.

Might have to wait another 12 months for the market to be caught up with it.

[kiora]

Positives will be coming but what are you expecting shortly?

[Jerry]

Pleased to see the drop in TLT share price, especially in view of positive news for the future. May buy soon.

[huxley]

http://www.standard.net.au/story/5149201/winds-of-change-blowing-as-more-wind-farms-on-the-way/

Should hear about the Dundonnell wind farm investment soon...

[hardt]

"The Group’s development activity is being prioritised
on progressing the Dundonnell Wind Farm (~ 300 MW)
for an investment decision in early CY18. Now that
the Victorian Renewable Energy Target legislation
has passed through the Victorian State Parliament,
the Victorian Renewable Energy Auction Scheme
to contract for 650 MW of renewable energy has
commenced and final bids are due on 14 February
2018. It is expected that Dundonnell Wind Farm
will be a competitive project in this process but it is
acknowledged that the competition for contracts is
likely to be strong."


I do not know enough about this space to have an opinion on their deservedness of this contract.
Big opportunity nonetheless.

One of the only growth plays in a somewhat boring yield centric industry.
higher risk investment for sure as debt will most certainly be a necessity.
Dividends will be an afterthought as well with TLT until we see them develop their hearts out.

I do not see the market pricing in 1/4 of these developments.



market cap of 625m

TLT CURRENT









WIND

SOLAR



Tararua Stage 1,2,3 - NZ

161 MW

nil



Mahinerangi Stage 1 - NZ

36 MW

nil



Snowtown Stage 1,2 - AUS

371 MW

nil



Blayney - AUS

10 MW

nil



Crookwell - AUS

5 MW

nil



Total

583 MW

nil









PIPELINE CAPACITY









WIND

SOLAR



Dundonnell - AUS

350 MW

nil



Salt Creek - AUS

54 MW

nil



Palmer - AUS

375 MW

nil



Kaiwera Downs - NZ

240 MW

nil



Mahinerangi Stage 2 - NZ

160 MW

nil



Rye Park - AUS

327 MW

nil



Waverly - NZ

130 MW

nil



Waddi - AUS

105 MW

40 MW



Western Downs - AUS

nil

250 MW



Snowtown North - AUS

nil

50 MW



Dysart - AUS

nil

100 MW



Total

1741 MW

440 MW

[hardt]

Fairly material contract leading into 2030 with 100% contracted revenues ex Merdian for Salt Creek.

Forecasted average annual contribution up to 2021. ( assumptions of uncontracted revenues were 15-20% PA - ( not anymore ) )

Revenues AUDm 21 - 25
Op Costs AUDm 4.6 - 4.7
EBITDAF AUDm 16 - 20

Forecast source - https://www.tiltrenewables.com/documents/27/20170630SaltCreekWindFarmInvestmentDecision.pdf

Markets cold shoulder can only last so long

This being the smallest of the incoming developments...
Think of the annual contributions from sites with 7 times the production of Salt Creek.

[Jaa]

Big overhang from TECT's stake for now.

If the TECT giveaway proceeds, the cash required could be gained entirely from selling their share in Tilt, since its hardly a strategic stake for the trust.

[huxley]

Assuming Dundonnell goes ahead, tilt will need capital from its shareholders with IFT indicating it’ll do so (not surprising given their cash position). It’ll be interesting what this’ll mean for the trust, does anyone have any idea what this’ll translate to on a per share basis?

[hardt]

Assuming Dundonnell goes ahead, tilt will need capital from its shareholders with IFT indicating it’ll do so (not surprising given their cash position). It’ll be interesting what this’ll mean for the trust, does anyone have any idea what this’ll translate to on a per share basis?

TECT owns (27%) of TLT = 83,878,838/312,973,000

1000GWh has been proposed for Dundonnell at a cost of A650,000,000
Obviously this massive project will be split into two-three stages.

Financials of the project should be coming soon "Mid 2018" with construction in "late 2018"

https://www.tiltrenewables.com/documents/78/Dundonnell_Newsletter_Dec_2017.pdf

- I only just realised this does not answer your question.

[huxley]

TECT owns (27%) of TLT = 83,878,838/312,973,000

1000GWh has been proposed for Dundonnell at a cost of A650,000,000
Obviously this massive project will be split into two-three stages.

Financials of the project should be coming soon "Mid 2018" with construction in "late 2018"

https://www.tiltrenewables.com/documents/78/Dundonnell_Newsletter_Dec_2017.pdf

- I only just realised this does not answer your question.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/2fcd1bbf/tilt-bids-for-victorian-supply-contract-using-proposed-a-600m-dundonnel-wind-farm.html

Aud$300m

[huxley]

"In support of its VREAS bid, Tilt Renewables has obtained equityfunding support from Infratil (TLT’s largest shareholder)comprising a conditional agreement by Infratil to offer tounderwrite 100% of an equity raising of A$300m for Dundonnell"

So does this mean there'll be any rights issue for shareholders?

[peat]

time to whistle for some wind ?

[bullfrog]

Lack of wind or wrong type of wind, hopeful for a good tailwind for the Aussie bid, could take off... decision should be soon

[peat]

the lack of wind in NZ and some anomaly in the Australian system all meant ill in the last quarter
- blowing nobody good.

I had a bit of a look under the notion of SRI but couldnt see much to attract me quite frankly.
Chart looks weak.

[bull....]

result goes to show they need to build scale in solar and batteries as well as wind to smooth the revenues, wont be so lumpy then

[bull....]

Mercury acquires stake in Tilt Renewables Limited
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/317881

removes the overhang in shares and brings a better deep pocketed investor onboard ... very positive announcement

[huxley]

Mercury acquires stake in Tilt Renewables Limited
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/317881

removes the overhang in shares and brings a better deep pocketed investor onboard ... very positive announcement

Paid up $2.30 per share for their position. looks like a much more suitable shareholder compared to the trust, watch this space

[bullfrog]

With Mercury joining Infratil this looks promising, one of my stock picks at beginning of year...yay

[RGR367]

And 19.9% would be the maximum that Mercury will get as per NBR today saying IFT is unlikely to approve Mercury moving beyond 20% on TLT https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/%E2%80%98hard-decisions%E2%80%99-coming-aussies-energy-mercury-says-th-p-215581 Made sense for IFT holders.

[hardt]

A month before schedule on a smaller project like salt creek and an implied bump to the lower level of that 120-127 EBITDAF guidance...

Looking forward to the next couple years of tilt.

[hardt]

TPower is valued at $1,800M and set to deliver FY19F EBITDAF of $205-220M
Mercury is valued at $4,555M and set to deliver FY18F EBITDAF of $550M
Meridian is valued at $8,000 and set to deliver FY18F EBITDAF of $640-680M ( Couldn't find an actual forecast from MEL)

Tilt with a pipeline possible of tripling total generation is valued by the market at $650M with current operating assets to deliver FY19F EBITDAF of $120-127M...

Understand these pivotal stages of heavy capital intensive developments and investments by Tilt has put plenty of would be investors off... until all is proven and the cash flows through to shareholders pockets.
They have a sizeable return profile if plans are executed in keeping with their past of consistently developing core long term assets.

Not saying the valuation of a core generator will ever match that of consumer facing Gentailers, but that gap will tighten.

[stur066]

Anybody worried about their debt position?

2017
L=879.8
Interest paid = 32.16
Interest rate = 32.16/879.8 = 3.66%
32.16/3.66 = 8.93
=2.23/0.25
Do these companies have long term fixed interest rates? If not does every 0.25% increase in interest rates wipe 2.23 mil off?

***disc new to investing***

[Jerry]

I can never understand the mystery moves of the big gentailers. Their PEs are high, they write down over a billion dollars annually in depreciation (all together), charge like wounded bulls for electricity and still their earnings are very modest. :confused:

[Hectorplains]

I can never understand the mystery moves of the big gentailers. Their PEs are high, they write down over a billion dollars annually in depreciation (all together), charge like wounded bulls for electricity and still their earnings are very modest. :confused:

PE and depreciation aren't the key indicators. Look at free cash flow for a start...

[bull....]

PE and depreciation aren't the key indicators. Look at free cash flow for a start...

agree fcf is most important. tlt if goes to plan should rival the other gentailers in time as far as size goes.

[hardt]

Anybody worried about their debt position?

2017
L=879.8
Interest paid = 32.16
Interest rate = 32.16/879.8 = 3.66%
32.16/3.66 = 8.93
=2.23/0.25
Do these companies have long term fixed interest rates? If not does every 0.25% increase in interest rates wipe 2.23 mil off?

***disc new to investing***

Debt is a necessity, without it how will the $2bn pipeline get built...




TERM
NZD REPAYMENTS
NZ WAIR%
AUD REPAYMENTS
AU WAIR%









<1 Year
$14.6m
4.00%
$24.1m
3.40%


>1<2 Years
$15.2m
4.40%
$177.8m
3.90%


>2<5 Years
$82.1m
5.20%
$213.2m
4.80%


>5 Years
$11.0m
5.70%
$105.5M
5.10%

[kiora]

PE and depreciation aren't the key indicators. Look at free cash flow for a start...

And their development margins if not held long term

[kiora]

Solar not the answer
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/104522072/surge-in-solar-power-is-flooding-australias-national-grid

[fish]

Solar not the answer
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/104522072/surge-in-solar-power-is-flooding-australias-national-grid
Solar power is not the answer on its own-this article shows problems that may happen if development proceeds faster than planning.
I have been in the whitsundays for the past 2 weeks-cloudless skies and sun every day so I am not surprised they have surplus solar.

Can you translate that to nz?
Has queensland got hydro where generation can be quickly reduced?
Has it got smart meetering?
Could that surplus power be stored -eg hot water tanks reprogrammed ?
Could that surplus power be used-reverse hydro,batteries,aircon,freezers ?

Dont discount solar-its clean ,green power .

[horus1]

Funny thing is that the solar owners are not complaining but the electricity industry which is being bypassed is. With battery prices coming down fast, and fuel cells starting the networks will become optional within 10 years.

[blobbles]

Best thing for Aus to do is encourage electric cars and outfit commuter car parks with charge cables. Get commuter cars to be the batteries and you solve the problem plus lower oil imports. Instead of restrictions on supply try changing the demand curve.

[hardt]

I asked Flick why the spot prices were ridiculously high these past few weeks, often times hitting 80cents - 16/06/2018

"Regarding the recent spot price spikes, this was due to Huntly power station being turned on with the extreme cold that’s sweeping the country. It means that we’re seeing some more expensive, and dirtier energy in the mix.
In general the spot prices have been higher due to generation stations charging higher amounts for non renewable resources when this form of electricity generation is being put onto the national grid. This is because this current winter is looking really good for renewable resources which is why generators are upping the price when non renewable resources are being used to generate power."

If this great winter quarter for renewables only outperformed Tilts expectations by 5% then I would have had a real problem.
With this NZ quarter being 20% above expectations it proves, at least in my mind that TLT have obtainable long term expectations for their portfolio.

Spot prices in NZ and AU still remain below FY17, paired with the unpredictable nature of nature is why there is no update to guidance... yet.



REGION

$/MWh 2017

$/MWh 2018

VARIANCE



NSW

82.27

72.68

-11.66%



QLD

72.87

68.1

-6.55%



SA

98.1

75.41

-23.13%



VIC

92.33

70.18

-23.99%




I don't own tilt for absolute financial performance this year or even the next, their output is already 50% ahead of PCP of the back of a few of their minor projects being completed...
given some time and a few more developments they are going to be far bigger than the market seems to think is possible.

Was a very solid quarter.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TLT/320465/282343.pdf

[kiora]

Ssh Hardt,investors here only want the short sugar fix :)

[Snoopy]

Anybody worried about their debt position?

2017
L=879.8
Interest paid = 32.16
Interest rate = 32.16/879.8 = 3.66%


Not a close follower of Tilt. But assuming that figure you have quoted as L is the bank debt on the balance sheet at EOFY2017, perhaps you should use an average figure of debt by taking the debt at EOFY2016 and EOFY2017 and dividing that number by 2? After all the interest paid over the year will be based on the average loan size over the year. Not the loan balance at the end of the year.

Also with Tilt, a developer of new wind farms, some of the interest paid may be being capitalized on new development projects. That could make the actual interest paid as recorded in the accounts seem lower than the underlying interest bill really is.



32.16/3.66 = 8.93


So each interest rate percentage point represents $8.93m of interest being paid....



=2.23/0.25


...And each quarter percentage point represents $2.23m in interest payments.



Do these companies have long term fixed interest rates?


Underlying borrowing terms are usually listed and detailed in the annual report under the 'Borrowings' note. You should find your answer there.



If not does every 0.25% increase in interest rates wipe 2.23 mil off?


Assuming your figures are correct, then yes a 0.25% interest rate would wipe off $2.23m off net profit before tax, everything else being equal



***disc new to investing***


Welcome to the forum.

SNOOPY

[bull....]

good first quarter im picking an upgrade to yr end results at some stage and hence will benefit ift as well

[kiora]

Let the good times roll :)

[hardt]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/322264

Long-term, this thing is worth so much more and MCY know it.... SEVERE LOWBALLING at $2.30

[huxley]

What do you reckon, use your TLT funds to double down on more IFT?

[kiora]

Plenty of scope for the future
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/4551a6c0/tilt-strategy-still-emerging-mercury.html?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Wednesday+2 2+August+2018

[GTM 3442]

Interesting article on the power of the Australian coal lobby. Who knows what it might mean for TLT/IFT/MCY in the medium term.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-28/alex-turnbull-says-coal-miners-have-undue-influence-on-liberals/10170908

[GTM 3442]

What do you reckon, use your TLT funds to double down on more IFT?

I think IFT and MCY in proportion to their stakes in TLT. I think TLT has the potential to equal TPW as part of IFT's stable.

[hamish]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/322264

Long-term, this thing is worth so much more and MCY know it.... SEVERE LOWBALLING at $2.30

Agree Hardt. With the emerging pipeline, consents and future demand for renewables, this would be a steal. Why would I sell my shares now after holding during the hard work period to build the pipeline and future opportunity.....? Selling myself short on the future.

Offer docs are out today.. tarting up $2.30 it up as a 24% 'premium' - based on the SP of the day their intentions were announced. So what.. a few cents in the here and now matters little.. It's the future value of the Co and the shares that matter and the risk/reward that may eventuate... The AGM presentation end August shines a good light on that.

Offer me $4 and I might see it differently... maybe

Waiting also to see what the TLT Board external assessment comes back with

Disc : I also hold also MCY and IFT separately. So, even though I would gain access to potential TLT future earnings/upside that way, I see far greater for holding TLT separately and operating as it's own entity, expertise and Board.

[bullfrog]

Agree Hardt. With the emerging pipeline, consents and future demand for renewables, this would be a steal. Why would I sell my shares now after holding during the hard work period to build the pipeline and future opportunity.....? Selling myself short on the future.

Offer docs are out today.. tarting up $2.30 it up as a 24% 'premium' - based on the SP of the day their intentions were announced. So what.. a few cents in the here and now matters little.. It's the future value of the Co and the shares that matter and the risk/reward that may eventuate... The AGM presentation end August shines a good light on that.

Offer me $4 and I might see it differently... maybe

Waiting also to see what the TLT Board external assessment comes back with

Disc : I also hold also MCY and IFT separately. So, even though I would gain access to potential TLT future earnings/upside that way, I see far greater for holding TLT separately and operating as it's own entity, expertise and Board.

With you on this. Opus last year, 80% + dividend, and compared with Opus TLT has so much more growth potential. Funnily, I picked TLT as a stock that would be good for a 20% gain this year, never thinking it would be subject to takeover.

[RupertBear]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/322264

Long-term, this thing is worth so much more and MCY know it.... SEVERE LOWBALLING at $2.30

TLT's independent directors agree with you hardt and are recomending shareholders reject the offer

[horus1]

I have swapped into IFT. They will get it for 2.30. The price was below 2.00 before MCY came in. AU is very volatile and prices are declining fast.

[RTM]

[/B]
TLT's independent directors agree with you hardt and are recomending shareholders reject the offer

Not sure they are quite saying that.

“At this stage, shareholders are advised to take no action until they receive further information from TLT on the offer.
TLT will appoint an independent adviser (who must be approved by the Takeovers Panel) to provide a report on the merits of the offer for TLT shareholders. If Infratil Limited and Mercury NZ Limited proceed with their offer, a copy of that report, together with TLT's response statement to the offer, will be provided to shareholders.”

[RupertBear]

Not sure they are quite saying that.

“At this stage, shareholders are advised to take no action until they receive further information from TLT on the offer.
TLT will appoint an independent adviser (who must be approved by the Takeovers Panel) to provide a report on the merits of the offer for TLT shareholders. If Infratil Limited and Mercury NZ Limited proceed with their offer, a copy of that report, together with TLT's response statement to the offer, will be provided to shareholders.”

Just reporting what I read...

TILT RENEWABLES' INDEPENDENT DIRECTORS SAY INFRATIL-LED TAKEOVER BID TOO LOW

Tuesday 4th September 2018
Text too small? (http://www.sharechat.co.nz/text-too-small.html)


Tilt Renewables' independent directors are recommending shareholders reject the $208.5 million Infratil-led takeover offer for the business, saying it is "simply too low". Infrastructure investment company Infratil owns 51 percent of the Melbourne-based wind and solar developer. Last month it announced it was partnering with power company Mercury NZ, which in May acquired almost 20 percent of Tilt's shares, to buy out the rest at $2.30 a share. That is 8 percent more than they were trading at prior to the offer and matches what Mercury paid for its stake. The shares last traded at $2.29 on the NZX.However, the "offer price does not adequately recognise the value of the current operational assets and the strong pipeline of future projects", Fiona Oliver, chair of the independent director committee, said in an emailed statement. “This is a very strong company in the renewables energy space, with excellent prospects. The $2.30 offer is simply too low. The independent directors believe the minority shareholders should be properly rewarded if Mercury and Infratil are to get total ownership and take the company private. The JV’s premium of 8 percent on recent trading does not recognise the strategic value of this company," she said.The premium is "materially below the average level for successful takeovers of this kind in New Zealand", she said, noting that the offer comes at an opportunistic time and doesn’t factor in a major future project that may deliver significant benefits to the company. This refers to Tilt's bid for a portion of output from the fully permitted 336MW Dundonnell Wind Farm under the Victorian Renewable Energy Auction Scheme. Oliver added that the committee will provide shareholders with a target company statement within two weeks that will include more detail, and an independent report by Northington Partners, "but our view is already clear".Tilt has seven operating wind farms in Australia and New Zealand and a string of development opportunities in both countries. It has just completed the 54MW Salt Creek wind farm in Victoria and is preparing to proceed with the A$600 million, 336MW Dundonnell project in the same state.The statement, which hasn't been published on the New Zealand or Australian stock exchanges, came as Infratil and Mercury announced they obtained approval from the Australian Foreign Investment Review Board for the deal, the only substantive condition in the takeover offer.

[hardt]

[/B]
TLT's independent directors agree with you hardt and are recomending shareholders reject the offer

Was hoping to hold TLT for as long as it took to reach maturity, expecting a solid 2-3bn company over the next 7 odd years... No, £2.30 will not and should not convince anyone to sell out of this gem.

Not sure why anyone would accept this.

[bull....]

agree i had tlt as a big bet for the future

[freddagg]

agree i had tlt as a big bet for the future

Me too, I have a lot and would have bought more except I expected to buy more in a capital raise for Dundonnell.

[RTM]

Just reporting what I read...


Yep, me to. Hope you are right. Thanks for posting the source.
Cheers
RTM

[huxley]

It’s interesting to see the share trade above 2.30NZD

[bull....]

Me too, I have a lot and would have bought more except I expected to buy more in a capital raise for Dundonnell.

exactly was waiting to hear. ift really want to keep all the glory from this one to themselves lol

[horus1]

TLT is risky on forward options as the price of renewables is dropping fast. I think the cause is cheaper finance plus very cheap solar. I have just helped pay for 10 KW of solar on top of 6KW already,with a battery and 3 phase inverter. Pay back will be 5 years at most . Domestic power prices in NZ are a rip off , 5.5c/Kwhr for Tiwai and 15 at least for domestics all protected by the govt as they own a lot of NZ generation. The gains really start if you go off grid.

[bullfrog]

My understanding is that if MCY and IFT reach the 90% threshold they can compulsory purchase the remaining 10%. They already control 70% so are looking for 20% to grab a bargain. $3.60, that’s the number they should be pitching.

[bull....]

huge announcement today in aus about dundonnel

Premier Daniel Andrews will formally announce the results of the special "reverse auction" on Tuesday, a system where the Government has asked the industry for bids to build new energy generation

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-10/new-solar-wind-farms-to-be-built-in-victoria/10223550?section=business

[freddagg]

huge announcement today in aus about dundonnel

Premier Daniel Andrews will formally announce the results of the special "reverse auction" on Tuesday, a system where the Government has asked the industry for bids to build new energy generation

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-10/new-solar-wind-farms-to-be-built-in-victoria/10223550?section=business

Thanks for the link.
So the environment Minister has already confirmed Dundonnell will be built. Hard to see how Infratil will be able to buy Tilt for $2.30 now.

[horus1]

It depends on the price which looks low.

[RTM]

Yes, thanks for the link.

It feels as though Infratil and Mercury were trying to get the deal through before this surfaced. They would have had more knowledge than the average shareholder (me) that's for sure. Leaves a bit of a bad taste in ones mouth, reinforces where the retail shareholder fits into the scheme of things, and so yes, I really hope they have to pay more.

Disc: Modest holding via my Trustpower shares.

[freddagg]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TLT/323699/286532.pdf

Excellent

[bull....]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TLT/323699/286532.pdf

Excellent

good news bumps the valuation of tilt up big time , think if ift raises bid it just goes to show they were really trying to hoodwink investors on the cheap lol

[bull....]

independants advisors report out showing tilt valued at up to 3.02 , new ift were trying a sly move lol .only 2 options now substantially lift the offer price or drop the takeover.

[freddagg]

independants advisors report out showing tilt valued at up to 3.02 , new ift were trying a sly move lol .only 2 options now substantially lift the offer price or drop the takeover.

My guess is the JV will just let the offer lapse. Infratil have still picked up the rest of the Tect shares for $2.30 and likely only wanted the rest if they could get them cheap.
I am really pleased to see that the Tilt independent directors have done their job well and not been intimidated by their majority shareholder.

[horus1]

IFT will just sit. If I had TLT shares I would sell them as the value will fall away after the offer closes. This is not advice only my opinion.

[Ggcc]

IFT will just sit. If I had TLT shares I would sell them as the value will fall away after the offer closes. This is not advice only my opinion.
Plus may Edison Investment Research has made this report. Where everyone is worth more.

[bullfrog]

My guess is the JV will just let the offer lapse. Infratil have still picked up the rest of the Tect shares for $2.30 and likely only wanted the rest if they could get them cheap.
I am really pleased to see that the Tilt independent directors have done their job well and not been intimidated by their majority shareholder.
Second the view about the directors, but don’t believe the JV will give up. If they do you have to seriously question their strategy. You never put all your cards on the table and they couldn’t possibly think their first offer would be good enough. Might pick off a few, but they’ll have another go, say upper 2’s with a mop up offer third and final low 3’s - though 3.60 would be nice. Job done, TLT would obviously be a great fit into their long term strategy.

[GTM 3442]

Second the view about the directors, but don’t believe the JV will give up. If they do you have to seriously question their strategy. You never put all your cards on the table and they couldn’t possibly think their first offer would be good enough. Might pick off a few, but they’ll have another go, say upper 2’s with a mop up offer third and final low 3’s - though 3.60 would be nice. Job done, TLT would obviously be a great fit into their long term strategy.

I suspect the JV will stop dividends, in order to fund growth. And run a series of capital raising.

Eventually the minority shareholders will grow weary and move on, selling on-market at $1.59.

[freddagg]

Infratils answer to the Independent Directors valuation is out.
Sounds terrible, if that is what Ift believe they should be selling, not buying.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/324380

[winner69]

Infratils answer to the Independent Directors valuation is out.
Sounds terrible, if that is what Ift believe they should be selling, not buying.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/324380

Not the first time Northington reports have been ‘reviewed’.

Maybe they’ll change their assumptions?

[RTM]

Infratils answer to the Independent Directors valuation is out.
Sounds terrible, if that is what Ift believe they should be selling, not buying.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/324380

Infratil only consider Infratil. I was shocked a few years ago when I read their justification for an extension to Wellington Airport. I thought the case they made was extremely / blatantly biased towards the interests of Infratil to the detriment of an overall business consideration. They were certainly trying to justify getting ratepayers/taxpayers to put money in ..that would support Infratils interests. Went off them after reading that. IMO.

[macduffy]

Can't blame a company for making their own case - it's someone else's job to look after ratepayers and taxpayers.

[RTM]

Can't blame a company for making their own case - it's someone else's job to look after ratepayers and taxpayers.

Yeah...agree. And thought I would get that response. It was just to blatant and one sided IMO tho.
I think to the detriment of the case they were trying to make.

[huxley]

The advisory firms seem to be producing reports for order! “You wana go long, or short? Ok we’ll write that up”

[hardt]

The advisory firms seem to be producing reports for order! “You wana go long, or short? Ok we’ll write that up”

IFT should are keen to spit on any valuation above their offer...

Why would they offer anything if not for expecting a very solid ROIC.

[Timesurfer]

Not the first time Northington reports have been ‘reviewed’.

Maybe they’ll change their assumptions?

From what I have seen Northington will write what you pay them to write. Reality seems to have little bearing on the glossy charts and whatnot they churn out.

[bull....]

“We continue to strongly recommend that shareholders do not accept the offer. To not accept the offer, shareholders should do nothing. They should ignore the takeover documents sent to them by Infratil and Mercury.” said Ms Oliver.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/324530

[bull....]

t/o closes shortly.

dont know why infratil was trying to say uncertainty in aus around renewables look at the size of this deal 22 billion to be built in pilbara , wind and solar power development’s planned output from 9 gigawatts to more than 11 GW

https://thewest.com.au/business/energy/macquarie-group-plugs-into-22b-asian-renewable-energy-hub-in-pilbara-ng-b88983687z

and another deal

https://thewest.com.au/business/contracting/decmil-wins-277m-nsw-solar-farm-work-ng-b88984439z

australia renewables are going offf

[macduffy]

IFT reconfirms offer for TLT. Final offer $2.30 will not be increased.

http://news.iguana2.com/macquaries/NZSE/IFT/325068

[bullfrog]

IFT reconfirms offer for TLT. Final offer $2.30 will not be increased.

http://news.iguana2.com/macquaries/NZSE/IFT/325068

For some reason reminds me of a boiler bunny, “if you don’t date me I’ll never ever speak to you again... last chance....you’ll be soorrryyy...”

[bullfrog]

t/o closes shortly.

dont know why infratil was trying to say uncertainty in aus around renewables look at the size of this deal 22 billion to be built in pilbara , wind and solar power development’s planned output from 9 gigawatts to more than 11 GW

https://thewest.com.au/business/energy/macquarie-group-plugs-into-22b-asian-renewable-energy-hub-in-pilbara-ng-b88983687z

and another deal

https://thewest.com.au/business/contracting/decmil-wins-277m-nsw-solar-farm-work-ng-b88984439z

australia renewables are going offf

another deal, a little less uncertainty

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/476a5efa/genesis-partners-with-tilt-in-taranaki-wind-farm.html

[Well Endowed]

Acceptances finally gathering a bit of steam. pleasing to see (as an infratil holder)

[hardt]

Acceptances finally gathering a bit of steam. pleasing to see (as an infratil holder)

I think the recent market slump has caused many to take the profits they can get, seeing as they won't increase offer I will sell my shares and buy back if it fails at 10% below.

[huxley]

I think the recent market slump has caused many to take the profits they can get, seeing as they won't increase offer I will sell my shares and buy back if it fails at 10% below.

Do you think they’ll get to 90% before the offer closes?

[blackcap]

Do you think they’ll get to 90% before the offer closes?

I think they may extend the offer if they are close enough.

[hardt]

Do you think they’ll get to 90% before the offer closes?

I don't believe they will, TLT have done a good job at presenting their worth... Recent upgraded guidance looks good to holders too.

I bought a whole bunch at 228 yesterday to accept the offer at 230... Entirely free of risk, even at 0.5% return after brokerage, it's free money nonetheless.

[horus1]

If you follow what is happening in AU electricity you would get out of TLT

[rua]

If you follow what is happening in AU electricity you would get out of TLT

I'm interested as to your reasoning here. Is it the climate denialism of the liberals? Or the fall off in projects as the renewable energy target winds up in 2020, and the lag between new policy, investor confidence and project rollout? Australia can't keep it's head in the coal forever, but I guess "recovery" could be a long time coming.

With the TLT shares, I'm most concerned about dilution and the need to inject more for capital raising, which is a point I don't think the independent directors have addressed. The latest offer extension runs out tonight.

[horus1]

The govt is threatening major interference if prices do not come down.The cost of new rewnewable generation is very low with cheap financing and I do not think TLT will be able to match the prices. On top of that a number of major industries are contracting direct with new generators and many domestic customers are going off grid. Solar panels are being installed very quickly and cheaply. The same will happen here but at a slower pace.I am glad I got out of TLT.

[freddagg]

I'm interested as to your reasoning here. Is it the climate denialism of the liberals? Or the fall off in projects as the renewable energy target winds up in 2020, and the lag between new policy, investor confidence and project rollout? Australia can't keep it's head in the coal forever, but I guess "recovery" could be a long time coming.

With the TLT shares, I'm most concerned about dilution and the need to inject more for capital raising, which is a point I don't think the independent directors have addressed. The latest offer extension runs out tonight.

Why does dilution matter. If you do not participate in the capital raise you will just have a smaller slice of a bigger pie

[macduffy]

Why does dilution matter. If you do not participate in the capital raise you will just have a smaller slice of a bigger pie

No, the pie - ie the company's assets - remains the same size, unless the new capital is used to grow it. Just that non-participants are left with a smaller slice.

[freddagg]

No, the pie - ie the company's assets - remains the same size, unless the new capital is used to grow it. Just that non-participants are left with a smaller slice.

Of course the new capital is being used to grow the company. Dundonnell will increase the size of Tilt by about 50%.

[Lion]

Not many sellers right now. Just 1875 shares for sale at $2.40, then 2100 at $2.50 and then a big step to $2.79 where 50,000 are offered.
I'm not sure if this is very significant.
But I think the JV will have trouble getting their 90% of TLT now. Not at $2.30, anyway.

[huxley]

Not many sellers right now. Just 1875 shares for sale at $2.40, then 2100 at $2.50 and then a big step to $2.79 where 50,000 are offered.
I'm not sure if this is very significant.
But I think the JV will have trouble getting their 90% of TLT now. Not at $2.30, anyway.

Probably holding out to potentially use the creep provisions, they can purchase 5%pa I think..

Will be interesting to see what TLT trades at once the offer expires.

[bull....]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-21/australia-opposition-bets-big-on-renewables-to-win-next-election

good news for tilt if it happens , no wonder ift badly want this as ive always maintained

[horus1]

Not good news for tilt. The batteries will encourage households to be independent and lead to prices dropping. The last thing Tlt want.

[hardt]

And so it ends, hopefully shares plummit so I can buy in yet again...

[bull....]

cash issue has arrived cheap shares for holders

[bullfrog]

Nice bonus for the loyal, the jv didn’t tempt me... much ha

[bull....]

not much comment on this , but its hitting new highs today. always said ift were trying to get a steal lol

[bullfrog]

Hit $3, happy days for those that didn’t sell out to ift (and for ift).

[bull....]

Hit $3, happy days for those that didn’t sell out to ift (and for ift).

going good alright , ift must be annoyed they were not able to get the bargain from us shareholders

[kiora]

Big & only going to get bigger IMO,compounding returns
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wind-turbine-maker-vestas-benefits-103021543.html

[bull....]

Big & only going to get bigger IMO,compounding returns
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wind-turbine-maker-vestas-benefits-103021543.html

quietly making new highs today

Tilt Renewables is pleased to have been delivered the judgment of the Supreme Court upholding the decision of the Environment, Resources and Development Court (ERD) to approve the Palmer Wind Farm project.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344447

[RTM]

quietly making new highs today

Tilt Renewables is pleased to have been delivered the judgment of the Supreme Court upholding the decision of the Environment, Resources and Development Court (ERD) to approve the Palmer Wind Farm project.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344447

Yes...independent directors did a great job for shareholders. Very grateful.

[Lion]

Yes...independent directors did a great job for shareholders. Very grateful.

Yes absolutely second that! Well done Fiona Oliver and others.

(I wish NZOG's "independent" directors had done half as well)

[kiora]

Etiquette & honesty of board one of first things to check if looking to invest in anything :mellow:

[bull....]

new highs today 100% gains now from listing date :) poor ift must be really annoyed they didnt sucker us all in to selling

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/345462

[Well Endowed]

got to be good for Infratil too, sitting on roughly 65% holding, solid gain the last 6months on that position!

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

new highs today 100% gains now from listing date :) poor ift must be really annoyed they didnt sucker us all in to selling

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/345462

TLT is my favorite NZX holding - just wish I'd bought in for much more!

[RTM]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/347133

In case any missed it.
15/1/2020, 5:19 pm MKTUPDTE. Seems interesting timing. Misses most of the daily scrutiny on the 15th. And then not on the radar on the 16th. Don’t really see why, nothing particularly significant, one way or another, as far as I could see.

[Blendy]

Thank you for this alert - yes I totally missed that.

I also am confused about the sales data - yesterday and today I have sold over 700 shares, all in tiny little parcels of 1 or more (so a million email sale notifications lol), and all have been at $3.39 but this price hasn't registered on the charts?

[turnip]

I also am confused about the sales data - yesterday and today I have sold over 700 shares, all in tiny little parcels of 1 or more (so a million email sale notifications lol), and all have been at $3.39 but this price hasn't registered on the charts?

Those small trades are probably from Sharesies members, who don't have minimum brokerage to consider. Trades below a certain value (or volume?) don't cause the ticker price to update, but I don't know what the threshold is exactly.

[Rowdy Flat]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/347133

In case any missed it.
15/1/2020, 5:19 pm MKTUPDTE. Seems interesting timing. Misses most of the daily scrutiny on the 15th. And then not on the radar on the 16th. Don’t really see why, nothing particularly significant, one way or another, as far as I could see.

I doubt there's anything to read into the timing of the release. NZ is going well, Australia a bit less so but early doors still over there.

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

I doubt there's anything to read into the timing of the release. NZ is going well, Australia a bit less so but early doors still over there.

Agree. Having been responsible for these releases in the past, sometimes its just that the final sign-offs from the relevant stakeholders tend to come together at around close of business. Then if its not price sensitive, then just getting it live for everyone immediately makes sense.

[sb9]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/351416

Very bullish announcement from Tilt, bit of rarity under current economic environment.

[King1212]

Yup..TLT is on my pick. Heaps of cash...! Cash is the king!

[sb9]

Yup..TLT is on my pick. Heaps of cash...! Cash is the king!

I'm already on their register as of this morning :)

[RTM]

" Tilt Renewables Limited (TLT) intends to return approximately A$260m (approximately A$0.55 per share) to shareholders via a pro-rata share buy-back."

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/351416

Sounds like good news....up 10c today. 2018 Takeover offer @ $2.30. While I was never going to sell into it, thanks again for the directors who recommended against it. The cash will be useful at the moment.

[King1212]

Pretty sure TLT will be on good position with heaps of cash around. Yet utilities sector is pretty defensive during this crisis time

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

This caught me by surprise. Bullish indeed and TLT has already fared fairly well through the late March drop. Tax effective way of returning capital to shareholders so hard to fault it.

[sb9]

Bit of disparity between two bourses NZX at NZ$ 301 and ASX at A$ 298...

[GTM 3442]

Why do Infratil want the money?

[Ggcc]

Why do Infratil want the money?
Where does it say Infratil wants the money?? They may have had an influence in the decision.

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

Bit of disparity between two bourses NZX at NZ$ 301 and ASX at A$ 298...

Its exchange rate... what's your point?

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

Why do Infratil want the money?

Always looking to do another deal - there will be plenty of assets ripe for the picking in the next 6 months.

[sb9]

Its exchange rate... what's your point?

That's exactly my point, the exchange rate it does not represent equivalent price. In this case at A$ 2.98 it should've been about NZ $3.08 as of y'day.
Never mind its an observation at that point in time.

[King1212]

Looking good this babe.....heaps of unrestricted cash....many companies would like in to TLT position..

[sb9]

Looking good this babe.....heaps of unrestricted cash....many companies would like in to TLT position..

Bots are working extra hard on buy side today...

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

That's exactly my point, the exchange rate it does not represent equivalent price. In this case at A$ 2.98 it should've been about NZ $3.08 as of y'day.
Never mind its an observation at that point in time.

They're pricing in a small amount of exchange rate risk and probably using averaging 14 - 28 days. Pretty standard isn't it?

[King1212]

What a great announcement again! Contract with Aldi

[sb9]

What a great announcement again! Contract with Aldi

Yes, they just seem to be hitting right notes...

[King1212]

Insider buying more...!

[sb9]

Insider buying more...!

Always a good sign, more so if its the Chairman buying them!!!

[King1212]

Smart fellow..... bought in more before the buy back kick in

[King1212]

A bit disappointed eh...cancel 1 share per 5 shares...then paid $2.91 for the share cancelled...the current SP is $3.17.....

It is not better off for the shareholders.....

[winner69]

A bit disappointed eh...cancel 1 share per 5 shares...then paid $2.91 for the share cancelled...the current SP is $3.17.....

It is not better off for the shareholders.....

What’s wrong kingie

[King1212]

Nah...it doesn't make sense.....don't u think master winner?

SP now $3.19.....announcenent to cancel 1share every 5 shares hold n paid $2.91 for it.....

That means... shareholders lose almost $.30?

[winner69]

Nah...it doesn't make sense.....don't u think master winner?

SP now $3.19.....announcenent to cancel 1share every 5 shares hold n paid $2.91 for it.....

That means... shareholders lose almost $.30?

If they paid you $3.19 they’d be buying less of your shares

Just be thankful they not giving this back as a divie ...you’d be paying tax on it

[King1212]

So...if u own 1000 shares at $3.10....iy costed you $3100.

1000 shares... cancelled 200 shares.

They pay 200 shares....@2.91...$582

Current holding will be 800 shares @3.10 that will be $2480

Total $2480 plus $582 = $3062....u paid $3100 for it....

So current SP is not a buy.....

[sb9]

So...if u own 1000 shares at $3.10....iy costed you $3100.

1000 shares... cancelled 200 shares.

They pay 200 shares....@2.91...$582

Current holding will be 800 shares @3.10 that will be $2480

Total $2480 plus $582 = $3062....u paid $3100 for it....

So current SP is not a buy.....

That's one way to looks at it, however in the long term EPS will be lot higher as they would've reduced no of shares outstanding by about 20%. Hence the buy back is most effective tool to add value to shareholder return.

[DazRaz]

That is my view of it. The relative value of the remaining shares go up. Whether the market recognizes that is a different matter.

[winner69]

So...if u own 1000 shares at $3.10....iy costed you $3100.

1000 shares... cancelled 200 shares.

They pay 200 shares....@2.91...$582

Current holding will be 800 shares @3.10 that will be $2480

Total $2480 plus $582 = $3062....u paid $3100 for it....

So current SP is not a buy.....

With the ‘current’ mentioned i can now see what you were getting at

Share price might be $3.50 soon.

[King1212]

How ...master winner....I still try to make sense of it...

[turnip]

If TLT simply cancelled 1 share in 5 and paid you nothing, would you be worse off?

[turnip]

Buying back 1 in 5 shares at $2.91 has the same outcome as paying a $0.582 per share tax-free dividend, followed by a 4 for 5 share consolidation. So if the share price just before the buyback was $3.10, then ex-dividend it should reduce to $2.518, but then the consolidation should increase it to $3.1475. Is this right?

One disadvantage is those of us who want to maintain our investment in TLT at athe same level will have to reinvest the proceeds of the buyback, incuring brokerage costs. Another is that TLT will have to pay brokers and underwriters when it asks for the cash back to fund more projects in the future.

[King1212]

Nahh.....say u paid $3 per share. Then the buy back $2.91...then u are losing 9c....your 5 shares then reduced to 4 shares at $3....

[mfd]

Nahh.....say u paid $3 per share. Then the buy back $2.91...then u are losing 9c....your 5 shares then reduced to 4 shares at $3....

You still own part of the company - this is all zero sum stuff. You think you're losing 9c, but you're also the person gaining the 9c through your ownership of the company.

Taken to the extreme, if they paid zero for the shares you still lose nothing, your existing shares just become worth more. Same as a share consolidation/split.

[turnip]

Nahh.....say u paid $3 per share. Then the buy back $2.91...then u are losing 9c....your 5 shares then reduced to 4 shares at $3....

If they bought back 1 share in 5 at $0 per share, do you think you would lose $3.10 for every 5 shares? No, that would just be a straight share consolidation, companies do that all the time, it has no effect on the value of your investment because the 4 shares you are left with represent the same proportion of the company that the original 5 did. They could set the buyback price at $1.00 per share or $5.00 per share and you wouldn't lose or gain anything from it, other than perhaps the costs associated with reinvesting the proceeds.

[King1212]

No way....

Okay.....this is my understanding....

If someone bought 1000 shares at @$3 then it costed $3000.

Now ....1 share every 5 shares you own will be bought back....

So 1000 shares ..200 shares will be bought back at $2.91...u get paid $582

Remaining you only own 800 shares left....@$3....so...$2400 worth of shares left

I dont think after the bought back...I still own 1000 shares.... otherwise the market will be shoot up to $4 per share now

So total investment $2400 plus $582..paid from bought back ..total investment will be $2982....

So... basically u lose $18.....yes...the shares will be less on the register....but the higher SP u paid....the more u loss...on the bought back....

Then your original paid $3000 for 1000shares...becom 800 shares...that means 1 share worth $3.75 after the bought back. But the market is trading at $3.19

Happy to be corrected ....that my understanding

[RupertBear]

No way....

Okay.....this is my understanding....

If someone bought 1000 shares at @$3 then it costed $3000.

Now ....1 share every 5 shares you own will be bought back....

So 1000 shares ..200 shares will be bought back at $2.91...u get paid $582

Remaining you only own 800 shares left....@$3....so...$2400 worth of shares left

I dont think after the bought back...I still own 1000 shares.... otherwise the market will be shoot up to $4 per share now

So total investment $2400 plus $582..paid from bought back ..total investment will be $2982....

So... basically u lose $18.....yes...the shares will be less on the register....but the higher SP u paid....the more u loss...on the bought back....

Then your original paid $3000 for 1000shares...becom 800 shares...that means 1 share worth $3.75 after the bought back. But the market is trading at $3.19

Happy to be corrected ....that my understanding

That is how I see it too king1212. They are taking my shares off me and paying me less for them than what I paid for them...so I loose out :ohmy: that actually makes me want to sell now :(

[King1212]

If one bought below $2.90...then it is a good bought back....but the higher SP I paid ..the more u are going to lose in the short term...long term ...SP should be consolidate...but at the uncertain market condition.... nobody knows

We need Master Beagle to explain his thoughts..

[mfd]

That is how I see it too king1212. They are taking my shares off me and paying me less for them than what I paid for them...so I loose out :ohmy: that actually makes me want to sell now :(

"They" are not taking your shares off of you - you own part of the company and are buying the shares off yourself. Any benefit you see to the company is actually a benefit to yourself, and the share price should adjust upwards to account for it.

It doesn't matter whether the 'you' the owns the company or the 'you' that is being paid out 'wins' - it's all just financial shenanigans to allow the company to hand out some cash without attracting tax.

[King1212]

Yes I got it.....but when u break it down mathematically.....then at the current SP...$3.19 is going to loss a lot...after bought back ...if u don't take the bought back cash to the account....then 1 share ..end up $4 on your holding.

Depanding on the market...it will take a while tfor the SP to trade around $4

[mfd]

Think about how it would work if you owned 100% of the company. It's like transferring your cash from one account to another.

The maths is no different if you only own 0.001% of the company.

[RupertBear]

"They" are not taking your shares off of you - you own part of the company and are buying the shares off yourself. Any benefit you see to the company is actually a benefit to yourself, and the share price should adjust upwards to account for it.

It doesn't matter whether the 'you' the owns the company or the 'you' that is being paid out 'wins' - it's all just financial shenanigans to allow the company to hand out some cash without attracting tax.

Oh deary me the Bears brain is very small and struggles to understand such things, thanks for trying to explain it to me :)

[dreamcatcher]

Oops a brain teaser going on here! :mellow:...............Think I will move on to the next stock.

[Aarrgghh]

does anyone know the date of record for this? Seems like a large free dividend to me?

[DazRaz]

Yeah, I was surprised when I saw the share price going down following the announcement. The remaining shares are slightly more valuable not less. Still, the current price is sentiment based so if the people think they are losing then the current price will drop.

[winner69]

does anyone know the date of record for this? Seems like a large free dividend to me?

The day before it was announced ...bad luck

[sb9]

The day before it was announced ...bad luck

You mean the day before they announced capital return news which was 8th April, so is record date 7th April ? How did you figure that out, couldn't find any reference to record date on their recent announcements though....

[winner69]

You mean the day before they announced capital return news which was 8th April, so is record date 7th April ? How did you figure that out, couldn't find any reference to record date on their recent announcements though....

Sure I read somewhere but can’t remember where and can’t find it now

Probably I’m wrong (as my sign off says)

So Better forget I said that ...I’m sorry

[sb9]

Sure I read somewhere but can’t remember where and can’t find it now

Probably I’m wrong (as my sign off says)

So Better forget I said that ...I’m sorry

All good winner, just trying to figure that out myself and two bits of info I got from y'days announcement was this...

- TLT initially announced the capital return on 8 April 2020. An application for initial orders from the High Court to consider the scheme of arrangement was filed on 28 April 2020.

- receiving a cash sum of NZ$2.91 for each share cancelled. Shareholders at 7:00pm (NZT) on the record date for the scheme with an address on the register in Australia will be paid NZ$2.91 converted into Australian dollars at the exchange rate offered by TLT's bankers to TLT at that time, as determined by TLT.


Not sure its clear as mud from above what's record date and couldn't find any investor contact email on Tilt website to fire off a question. There's one email for general info queries.

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

All good winner, just trying to figure that out myself and two bits of info I got from y'days announcement was this...

- TLT initially announced the capital return on 8 April 2020. An application for initial orders from the High Court to consider the scheme of arrangement was filed on 28 April 2020.

- receiving a cash sum of NZ$2.91 for each share cancelled. Shareholders at 7:00pm (NZT) on the record date for the scheme with an address on the register in Australia will be paid NZ$2.91 converted into Australian dollars at the exchange rate offered by TLT's bankers to TLT at that time, as determined by TLT.


Not sure its clear as mud from above what's record date and couldn't find any investor contact email on Tilt website to fire off a question. There's one email for general info queries.

Mark Flesher, Investor Relations, Infratil Limited
mark.flesher@infratil.com

[sb9]

Mark Flesher, Investor Relations, Infratil Limited
mark.flesher@infratil.com




Thanks, same IFT contact for TLT as well?

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

Thanks, same IFT contact for TLT as well?

That's my understanding, yes.

[sb9]

That's my understanding, yes.

Sweet, have flicked an email to him.

[peat]

There is no record date yet because the scheme schedule has not been finalised.

Thats how I understand it.

[sb9]

Sweet, have flicked an email to him.

No luck with my query yet, not sure it'll even be read.

[Independent Observer AUNZ]

No luck with my query yet, not sure it'll even be read.

Give them a call. 04 473 3663. They should respond to reasonable requests for information in a timely manner.

[sb9]

Give them a call. 04 473 3663. They should respond to reasonable requests for information in a timely manner.

Its ok, can't be that bothered tbh. And its not very critical in the scheme of things, happy to hold onto my modest position for now...

[DazRaz]

Indicative Record date is 3rd July.

[Southern Lad]

Share registry data suggests that IFT increased its shareholding in TLT by 1.9m shares during the market meltdown in March. Assume under the takeovers code creep provisions they can increase their shareholding by up to 5% in any 12 month period. March purchases increased IFT shareholding from 65.24% to 65.64%. Will MCY and IFT have another attempt to privatise TLT once the capital return has been paid out?

TLT annual result to be released tomorrow, Monday 25 May. Will be interested to get some concrete financial data on the impact of the sale of Snowtown 2. TLT have been economical with disclosure on impacts (other than high level surplus cash details in respect of capital return) to date. Further, I assume significant development gains will arise in completion of Dundonnell and Waipipi projects. The Morrison & Co management contract with IFT will encourage TLT to unlock this value uplift given the ongoing return through operating the wind farms will likely be below the bonus management fee hurdle rate.

[turnip]

For those planning to reinvest the proceeds from the buyback back into TLT shares, any thoughts on the best time to do it? Before or after the buyback, or half each way to play it safe?

[Southern Lad]

Given the buy back price is $2.91 compared with a current trading range of $3.10 to $3.20, the theoretical ex price for the same price range is $3.1475 to $3.2725.

Given the free float is relatively small, my sense it that buying before the cash is paid out it preferable because demand will presumably increase as holders who want to reinvest do so. One downside is paying brokerage on a bit less than one fifth of the purchase price that will reappear in your bank account shortly thereafter.

[NZSilver]

One of there turbines and trucks has rolled en route near okato

[NZSilver]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/news/121692399/truck-carrying-massive-wind-turbine-blade-topples-over-on-sh45

[RTM]

OK...they have exercised the share cancellation (1:5) and cash return (2.91 / share ). Although we don't have the cash in our account as yet. This always does my head in whether I'm ahead or behind after the event.
By my calculations...assuming the Share Price was 3.55 before the deal...then we need to get to 3.71 post to be even. I guess this ignores any tax advantage of returning capital to us in this way ?
Is this why there is a differential today....market price $3.50 cf theoretical excluding tax of 3.71.
Or have I simply lost a few dollars ?

[turnip]

The final closing price pre-buyback was $3.42, which equates to $3.5475 post-buyback.

[mfd]

Should be a wash either way - you're just transferring money from one pocket to another. Not worth getting too bogged down in it. Either the you getting paid out wins, or the you that owns the company paying out wins, but they balance each other out.

[RTM]

The final closing price pre-buyback was $3.42, which equates to $3.5475 post-buyback.


Should be a wash either way - you're just transferring money from one pocket to another. Not worth getting too bogged down in it. Either the you getting paid out wins, or the you that owns the company paying out wins, but they balance each other out.

Thank you. Makes sense. My model had to high a closing price pre-buyback. All good now.

[RTM]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/356046

Bit of a warning re the Infratil result.
Ooops...that’s me now.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/356026

...and this may be of interest as well.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-19/solar-boom-puts-sa-at-risk-of-another-statewide-blackout/12372558

Nothing is simple, is it.

This might be why TLT are having issues.

[tango]

...and this may be of interest as well.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-19/solar-boom-puts-sa-at-risk-of-another-statewide-blackout/12372558

Nothing is simple, is it.

This might be why TLT are having issues.

Very interesting about the blackouts. Thanks for that. It's not something I had considered.

[doxford]

Hi,out there o wiser ones, what issues are TLT having? Im just a novice out there, and I just cant understand why the the forum oracles dont seem to comment much on this stock, dumb buggers like me really appreciate your wise council, Ive done really well out of this stock but should I hold or should I go?

[Snow Leopard]

It is all about the stability of, in this case, the South Australia Electricity Grid and the very different problems that a high amount of assorted renewables with a very (short-term) dynamic output cause to a system designed around consistent & dependable supply providers and which only now, are those involved just beginning to get an understanding of the true consequences of such.

[Disc: Worked for just about everybody in this space]


...but should I hold or should I go?

Yes.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BN1WwnEDWAM

[bullfrog]

inspired by snow leopard, and the randomness of renewables, and the randomness of the word blow

let it blow let it blow...

one for the kids
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xlwzr_9BuaY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xlwzr_9BuaY)

one for gangsters
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsSpYCSJ3vc

And one for minecrafters
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJB3itCQatI

[tango]

inspired by snow leopard, and the randomness of renewables, and the randomness of the word blow

let it blow let it blow...

one for the kids
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xlwzr_9BuaY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xlwzr_9BuaY)

one for gangsters
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsSpYCSJ3vc

And one for minecrafters
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJB3itCQatI

😂😂😂😂

I was planning long term hold. But who knows maybe I could sell down half. Snow Leopard comments made me realise I don’t understand the dynamic nature of wind versus steady flow from hydro etc and the risks.

[Snow Leopard]



I was planning long term hold. But who knows maybe I could sell down half. Snow Leopard comments made me realise I don’t understand the dynamic nature of wind versus steady flow from hydro etc and the risks.

Do not let one poorly worded post from an old panthera influence your investment decisions :eek2:.

The constraint on DD is likely only temporary and of minor significance to a long-term investor.

Best you ignore this post too & DYOR ;)

[tango]

Do not let one poorly worded post from an old panthera influence your investment decisions :eek2:.

The constraint on DD is likely only temporary and of minor significance to a long-term investor.

Best you ignore this post too & DYOR ;)

Thank you.
More research is on the To Do list…

[Carpenterjoe]

Keep an eye on IFN (asx) atm. Currently under going a takeover. This could provide assistance with valuation.

[tango]

I wonder if Infratil still want 100% of tilt. They have a large reserve of cash...

[Southern Lad]

I wonder if Infratil still want 100% of tilt. They have a large reserve of cash...

Why would MCY want to sell their 19.99% shareholding to IFT?

Assume more likely that MCY and IFT would re-establish their JV to bid for the 14.4% owned by other shareholders. If the combined shareholding increased from 85.6% to 90% I assume they could then use the compulsory acquisition provisions to force the other shareholders to sell.

Imagine life for IFT and MCY far simpler without TLT being listed, not to mention a bit of cost savings.

[tango]

Why would MCY want to sell their 19.99% shareholding to IFT?

Assume more likely that MCY and IFT would re-establish their JV to bid for the 14.4% owned by other shareholders. If the combined shareholding increased from 85.6% to 90% I assume they could then use the compulsory acquisition provisions to force the other shareholders to sell.

Imagine life for IFT and MCY far simpler without TLT being listed, not to mention a bit of cost savings.

Yes, that would make sense and maybe they will have another go at buying us out. For now I am a happy holder

[RTM]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364532

"Infratil advises that it intends to undertake a strategic review of its shareholding in Tilt Renewables Limited (Tilt).

Tilt is a leading renewables platform in Australia and New Zealand, with a portfolio of high quality operating assets, a significant development pipeline and a professional team with proven ability to deliver. Tilt is listed on both the NZX and ASX and Infratil currently owns 65.5% of the outstanding shares.

Infratil has recently received a number of enquiries in relation to its Tilt shareholding. Given strong demand for high quality renewables platforms globally, Infratil considers it is prudent to assess alternatives for its Tilt shareholding, including divestment of its position. Any decision to pursue a particular proposal would need to demonstrate a material increase in expected returns and shareholder value relative to the current positive outlook. The strategic review is scheduled to be concluded within six months......etc"


What was the price they tried to get us to sell for ? Can't recall exactly...$2.20 ?
Price now 3.92. PE (Direct Broking) 3.18 (can that be right ? )
Wonder what happens today ?

[bull....]

tilt been a pretty stellar investment

[bullfrog]

Sounds like IFT is the jilted lover. TLT just wanted to be FWB, but IFT wanted to add TLT to it's harem, TLT played hard to get so IFT got the pip and is moving on. You weren't that good IFT.

[tango]

I’m just happy that I held on. Great investment and a 16% increase today makes me even happier

[tango]

I’m very grateful to Fiona Oliver and the other independent directors that fought hard on our behalf

[RRR]

Damn, I hadn't finished buying, have been accumulating since $3.00. Such a long runway to grow. It will be a loss if Tilt gets taken over and delisted. The best outcome will be if it remains listed, and better still if it is taken by a NZ company such as Mercury, who already hold a 20% stake..

[Biscuit]

I’m very grateful to Fiona Oliver and the other independent directors that fought hard on our behalf

Yes I agree with that! Good work by the independent directors.

[Southern Lad]

This mornings announcement of a 15 year PPA with Newcrest Mining covering 55% of the output from the proposed 400 MW wind farm at Rye Park NSW is very positive. Demonstrates that the development pipeline has a number of well advanced projects which hopefully excites potential purchasers as IFT seeks a knock out takeover price.

This is a large project - Snowtown 2 which TLT sold 12 months ago for an enterprise value of $1.073 billion was 270 MW. The comparison is somewhat simplistic but does give a fell for the overall context.

I am surprised the NZX announcement today wasn’t flagged as Price Sensitive.

[Southern Lad]

See announcement to ASX this evening after the NZX closed on further commissioning progress on the Dundonnell Wind Farm:

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02324591-3A558504?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Cleared to raise output to 295 MW out of total capacity of 336 MW.

[kiora]

See announcement to ASX this evening after the NZX closed on further commissioning progress on the Dundonnell Wind Farm:

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02324591-3A558504?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Cleared to raise output to 295 MW out of total capacity of 336 MW.

Cost $A560m to build, worth $A1.5b by my guestimate ?
Is that right?

[bull....]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/spains-iberdrola-a-frontrunner-for-tilt-renewables-report/G6F4RHB7NCFMGUSMVIIENAVNVI/

Spain's Iberdrola a frontrunner for Tilt Renewables - report
cool they just need to double the price again. always said on this thread ift were trying to steal them from us at a rediculous price around 3.50 and hello there now $6 with big buyers in the wind

[RTM]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/spains-iberdrola-a-frontrunner-for-tilt-renewables-report/G6F4RHB7NCFMGUSMVIIENAVNVI/

Spain's Iberdrola a frontrunner for Tilt Renewables - report
cool they just need to double the price again. always said on this thread ift were trying to steal them from us at a rediculous price around 3.50 and hello there now $6 with big buyers in the wind

You mean this one ? You are being a bit generous.

The $2.30 per share takeover offer from the Infratil and Mercury Joint
Venture (JV) for your Tilt Renewables shares (the Offer) is due to close at
11.59pm on October 15th (unless the Offer Period is extended by the JV).

At the time of writing this letter, acceptances of the Offer total less than
1% of the shares of Tilt Renewables (excluding the exercise of the option
over the shares held by TECT Holdings Limited which was entered into prior to
the Offer).
It appears shareholders overwhelmingly agree with the Independent Directors
that the Offer is inadequate and does not represent fair value for your Tilt
Renewables shares.

[Southern Lad]

You mean this one ? You are being a bit generous.

The $2.30 per share takeover offer from the Infratil and Mercury Joint
Venture (JV) for your Tilt Renewables shares (the Offer) is due to close at
11.59pm on October 15th (unless the Offer Period is extended by the JV).

At the time of writing this letter, acceptances of the Offer total less than
1% of the shares of Tilt Renewables (excluding the exercise of the option
over the shares held by TECT Holdings Limited which was entered into prior to
the Offer).
It appears shareholders overwhelmingly agree with the Independent Directors
that the Offer is inadequate and does not represent fair value for your Tilt
Renewables shares.

Since the $2.30 takeover offer in late 2018, TLT has had a 1:2 cash issue at $1.70 per share followed by a 1:5 share cancellation at $2.91 which effectively returned the full amount raised in the cash issue. By my rough calculation, the $2.30 takeover price is effectively equivalent to $1.92 per share taking into account the cash issue and cancellation. Today's closing price of $6.05 represents a 215% gain on this over this effective price in a period of just over 2 years. If IFT had bid a sensible amount at the time (say $2.50 per share), my bet is they (in conjunction with MCY) would have got to 90% and forced minorities out. Bet they are kicking themselves now for being to tight with the purse strings.

[kiora]

They are not the only ones looking for green power
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ORSTED-A-S-28607554/news/Amazon-Signs-Record-Power-Purchase-Agreement-With-rsted-31982719/

[Southern Lad]

Parcel of 173,425 shares traded at $6.37 at NZX close today, which was off the intra day high of $6.68. Price up by over 50% during December since IFT announced their holding was on the block. Presumably AustralianSuper’s rejected bids for IFT also driving interest in a stock where there is limited free float.

Very difficult for a retail shareholder to determine where the true value of TLT lies, but the trade today suggests some large bets are being placed (by both the seller and purchaser). Renewable energy very much in vogue. Potential purchasers view on the value of TLT’s development pipeline will also be crucial.

[bull....]

agree i had tlt as a big bet for the future

this is what i said in 2018 and have trumpted it all the way to today. also said ift was trying to buy it out on the cheap too. how true

fantastic outcome for ift and tlt shareholders

[bull....]

agree i had tlt as a big bet for the future

this is what i said in 2018 and have trumpted it all the way to today. also said ift was trying to buy it out on the cheap too. how true

fantastic outcome for ift and tlt shareholders

this sites crap to post on as usual these days

[bull....]

agree i had tlt as a big bet for the future

this is what i said in 2018 and have trumpted it all the way to today. also said ift was trying to buy it out on the cheap too. how true

fantastic outcome for ift and tlt shareholders

this sites crap to post on as usual these days

[bull....]

agree i had tlt as a big bet for the future

this is what i said in 2018 and have trumpted it all the way to today. also said ift was trying to buy it out on the cheap too. how true

fantastic outcome for ift and tlt shareholders

this sites crap to post on as usual these days , wastes our time

[Biscuit]

this is what i said in 2018 and have trumpted it all the way to today. also said ift was trying to buy it out on the cheap too. how true

fantastic outcome for ift and tlt shareholders

this sites crap to post on as usual these days , wastes our time


Yes, good outcome I suppose - always hate to see public companies sold. My average buy price was apparently 146 (not sure exactly how that was worked out as my main buys were around 200 in 2019, the original shares were knocked out of trustpower and then there was a capital reconstruction...), anyway about 4x the purchase price over a few years not too shabby. What is going on with this site.

[kiora]

Well done
You trumpted it !

[Sithalith]

Too late too jump on the Tilt train you think? I always seem to miss my chance!

[turnip]

Could the vote at the shareholder meeting stop this takeover?

A scheme of arrangement needs 75% from each interest class to pass. I think Mercury should be in its own interest class because it is part of the buyer consortium as well as a seller. But will Infratil be in its own interest class, or will the Infratil vote just make the rest of the shareholders' votes irrelevent?

I will vote against it regardless, but just wondering if that will be anything more than a symbolic gesture?

[Greekwatchdog]

Another offer..https://www.nzx.com/announcements/370678

[bullfrog]

Trading halt due to a discussion re a superior scheme arrangement for shareholders than previously advised. Maybe a share offer in IFT for TLT share holders? Been an interesting company to hold.

[bull....]

wonder if its APA GROUP on the asx

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Always figured there was no point putting your best number forward in that process. Just wait to see what the highest offer is and then up it slightly...

[Norwest]

wonder if its APA GROUP on the asx

TLT's Australian Assets would be a great fit for either APA or for SKI but I don't think either of them have the available cash? What about the Aussie Super Fund?

[bull....]

TLT's Australian Assets would be a great fit for either APA or for SKI but I don't think either of them have the available cash? What about the Aussie Super Fund?

apa was part of the group who were second in the bidding , so they might have come back with higher bid

[trader_jackson]

street talk reporting New Tilt Renewables bid at $NZ8; QIC, AGL consider matching

[huxley]

street talk reporting New Tilt Renewables bid at $NZ8; QIC, AGL consider matching

What is it now, $7.80?

So ~$75M extra

[bull....]

wouldnt surprise me if all 3 parties enter a bidding war. apa was pretty disappointed to miss out . and to think ift tried to steal it from us at $2.30 lol

[Southern Lad]

TLT has made an ASX release tonight advising that scheme of arrangement consideration offered by PowerAR and Mercury has been increased to $8.10 per share. See ASX announcement for details.

[Greekwatchdog]

$8.10 https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mercury-powar-up-the-ante-for-tilt-to-810-a-share/FFBTAD7HAUNINFQVYWMX6QWO7M/