Trumped !

[Beagle]

Hopefully the good Lord has mercy on us and the never ending circus of the U.S. election will be definitively decided and finally over this Thursday and Hillary Clinton will win.
According to an article in the NBR this morning Mark Lister of Craigs reckons the NZX could bounce 2-3% on a Clinton win and lose ~ 10% on a Trump victory.

Lets keep this thread positive, enough doom and gloom out there and talk of what happens if Trump wins.

So assuming Clinton wins, what stocks will you buy in a hurry on Thursday on the basis that you think they're materially oversold ?

[silu]

Over the last few weeks I've actually sold down quite a few of my largest holdings (current SPs well under sell price) to build a 'war chest' for this scenario. I hope I can make some money along with the sigh of relief the world will hopefully experience this week.

[corran]

I think I'll go long the S&P 500. Although I'd keep my finger on the sell button. Even if she wins we may be in for a very bumpy ride over the next few months.

[couta1]

I don't have to worry about such decisions, with a portfolio seriously in the red all I have to do is just sit and go long and keep collecting large divvies along the way, temporal issues don't change strong fundamentals.

[Blendy]

I don't have to worry about such decisions, with a portfolio seriously in the red all I have to do is just sit and go long and keep collecting large divvies along the way, temporal issues don't change strong fundamentals.

Thank you for your positive thinking - this is how I'm looking at it too.

[silu]

I don't have to worry about such decisions, with a portfolio seriously in the red all I have to do is just sit and go long and keep collecting large divvies along the way, temporal issues don't change strong fundamentals.

Seriously in the red shouldn't instill confidence in your strategy unless you mistyped?

[Ace]

Seriously in the red shouldn't instill confidence in your strategy unless you mistyped?

I wouldn't consider my strategy right or wrong based on market sentiment at a current point in time, nothing wrong in dancing with the red from time to time.

[Nasi Goreng]

I would say the safest bet (probably always) is to buy a stock with a healthy looking chart. The retirement sector, FPH, AIR, NZR, would be risky.

I've just had a quick look and there are quite few damaged NZX stocks by this recent pull back, SPK looks in trouble and if it goes below $3.30, its on shaky ground (compare to TLS.AU chart). So right now, I'm looking for opportunities but may very well hold tight.

[silu]

Over the last few decades I've experienced with a mixture of investment strategies. Some shares I hold longterm, some not so long and some highly speculative short term ones. I'm not a believer in sticking to one formula. Why not divest slightly instead of treading water for some time? I doubt that MEL for example will shoot from $2.54 back to $3.00 in any rush.

[couta1]

Seriously in the red shouldn't instill confidence in your strategy unless you mistyped? No because I have very large holdings in a few stocks where a 5-10% drop in the SP can equal a large drop on paper, that's the nature of large holdings but of course it can swing the other way on the same percentage gain.

[silu]

No because I have very large holdings in a few stocks where a 5-10% drop in the SP can equal a large drop on paper, that's the nature of large holdings but of course it can swing the other way on the same percentage gain.
Ok thanks for clarifying. I am more of a highly diversified investor. Usually longterm but not afraid of taking profits anymore.

[blobbles]

A bounce wouldn't surprise me, but wouldn't US fiscal policy (raising interest rates) have a bigger effect in the mid-long term? Would have thought people would be heading to cash more if they can get a return, particularly from a "fully priced market" risk perspective.

[Hoop]

I don't have to worry about such decisions, with a portfolio seriously in the red all I have to do is just sit and go long and keep collecting large divvies along the way, temporal issues don't change strong fundamentals.

Temporal issues a precursor to secular issues ? (time-wise defintion)

[winner69]

A guy on the radio this morning was saying that there will probably be a decent post election rise or fall for a few days - but whatever it is will fade away over the next few weeks ....and we'll be back to where we are today

Based on what happened after past elections .....and didn't Brexit play out this way

[Rep]

Over the last few decades I've experienced with a mixture of investment strategies. Some shares I hold longterm, some not so long and some highly speculative short term ones. I'm not a believer in sticking to one formula. Why not divest slightly instead of treading water for some time? I doubt that MEL for example will shoot from $2.54 back to $3.00 in any rush.

Whilst MEL won't shoot back over $3.00 any time soon, it's still looking pretty good for dividend yield and capital growth against my original purchase price of $1.50. Even if I had bailed out at $3.00, I would have still have had to put the money somewhere - my holdings are in for the long haul and apart from RBD which is on my watchlist (mainly to understand how the foray into the US will fare), I have a reasonably regular look at each of the stocks I hold and decide if I continue to be happy to hold.

On the other hand, I will watch the market over the next few weeks and months to see if any bargains come up but I like fundamentals and businesses I think I might understand and where I have some faith in the management and the Directors to keep management honest. On that note, I see RAK were advertising in the Weekend Herald for expressions of interest for Independent Directors - that's one company where a lot of folk have little faith in the governance structure and the NZSA's recent success notwithstanding, I don't think I have any faith that the governance is strong enough there to challenge the wealth destruction of the shareholding.

[macduffy]

Not a lot of ideas so far for Roger's "Thursday" scenario. I'd be looking to add a few to my bigger holdings of EBO, IFT and RYM - and perhaps a small parcel of HLG.

[skid]

will ''happy Thurs'' still be happy if Trump doesnt go quietly?--

Otherwise which shares have lost the most in terms of recent events (that still look strong fundamentally)--Time frames are good to watch as well--which have had the most decline since the FBI news,which cast doubt on the election?---If they were in decline before ,then perhaps the positive election result will not have the same lift.

[ari]

Real happy Thursday....if you get some Lotto funds!

[beetills]

I'm no expert but i will be sitting on what i've got no matters who gets elected and to tell you the truth i'm well and truly over so called experts giving their opinions.Over the years most of these experts have got it wrong,so i will be sitting tight.

[Beagle]

FBI announcing Hillary is in the clear from e.mails is possibly the biggest news of the day in terms of where things may be going.

My view - The bogeyman of interest rates isn't going to be as bad as people imagine. Markets have already priced in a 25 bps rise in the U.S. in my opinion but paradoxically the RBNZ looks almost certain to cut 25 bps to an all time historic low here on Thursday.

Thoughts:- According to CNBC USA REIT's have dropped 9.6% on interest rate concerns. REIT's here certainly haven't been immune with for example ARG and GMT down from 1.18 to 1.04 (12%) and GMT down from $1.40 to $1.23, also 12%. Both these stocks by my calculation are trading slightly below their NTA as at 30 September, GMT inferred based on expected revaluation because of lower capitalisation rates.

Both those stocks offer a highly attractive PIE yield ARG 6.1 / 104 = 5.87% and GMT 6.65/123 = 5.4%. For taxpayers on a 33% tax rate that's a gross yield of 8.76% and 8.1% respectively....this at a time when were looking at the lowest interest rates in a generation and both trade cum a quarterly dividend in December.

[BlackPeter]

Great question, Roger ... and much more fun to discuss than all the sad scenarios in case of Trump making the race.

Obviously - having Hillary winning is not the key to never ending market happiness ...
> NZD is historically quite dear, which might result in foreign funds keeping to reduce their NZ holdings - particularly if the market goes up again.
> Many NZX companies are even after the recent drop still quite expensive and might keep dropping
> immigration numbers in NZ are key to our house prices (and related to the value of REITS including retirement villages) but unlikely to be correlated to the outcome of the US elections

I started to create a wishlist with companies not big enough to attract too many big foreign funds (i.e. they can't sell out given they are not in) and with a solid income base as well as with advantages if NZD drops).

I have on this list companies benefiting from a well performing agriculture like SKL (currently holding), SML and PGW. I will monitor the retirement sector (and recently bought back into some) - and personally believe that there are already now some bargains to have but sure, it always can get cheaper.

I am holding some retailers likely to benefit from a good Christmas rally (and interestingly they hardly dropped in value throughout these times) and I am looking for specials in the only listed NZ bank (HBL - holding some).

Holding - and might buy some more TNR ... great business model and its fortunes appear to be quite unrelated to whatever happens abroad.

Not sure about the likes of FPH (but closely watching) ... a Hillary win may or may not change the downtrend.

As well watching the transport sector - but not committed yet.

DYOR - and GLTAOU

[kiora]

Hi BP
With any luck the thread name could be changed to Happy Monday:)

[Ace]

DYOR - and GLTAOU

What does GLTAOU mean? good luck to all our unicorns?

[BlackPeter]

What does GLTAOU mean? good luck to all our unicorns?

Isn't it quite obvious? - Good Luck To All Of yoU

[Ace]

Isn't it quite obvious? - Good Luck To All Of yoU
it's obvious now that you've told me but I don't think I would have gotten that answer before discovering the theory of relativity for myself lol

[Beagle]

Just thinking out loud here...given that the previously announced FBI e.mail enquiry triggered a really significant narrowing of the polls, might today's announcement by the FBI clearing her name now indicate she is far more likely to win ?

Market seems to like it, up 1.7% so far. Maybe those that want to be happy on Thursday are getting in early ?

[Joshuatree]

Yes it looks like the tension springs are loosening risk wise. But over 40 million votes have already been cast; how many since the FBI bombshell is the question. Of note early voters can actually go back and change their vote if they want to!.Also Trump & Clinton spokes people can line the access to the voting booths and promote their parties and wear and hold logos vote for ... cards etc.

[BlackPeter]

....
But over 40 million votes have already been cast; how many since the FBI bombshell is the question.

Correct - however reports are saying that Clinton was doing well in early voting. Admittedly, I don't know how they know (maybe exit polling or looking at which party the early voters have been registered with ...?).

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/5/13525442/polls-tighten-early-voting-good-clinton



....
Of note early voters can actually go back and change their vote if they want to!.

Correct, however only in 4 out of the 50 odd US states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania. All four of them are according to 538 in the polls pointing towards a Hillary victory - but obviously anybody who made the mistake to vote for Trump in these states can still fix that, just to be safe



....
Also Trump & Clinton spokes people can line the access to the voting booths and promote their parties and wear and hold logos vote for ... cards etc.

Don't forget - Trump supporters might (depending on the state) wear arms in order to intimidate other voters. Big crowd of armed skin heads in front of the voting place might impact on easy recognisable voting minorities. They are however not allowed to take these arms into the voting places. Just wondering about the logistics - hope they planned for that and provide enough sheriffs to disarm skin heads, fascists, Ku-Klux-Klan and other Trump supporters.

What a great country ... and Trump wants to make it still greater ....

[Leftfield]

I used to buy into all this speculation of what will happen post USA elections/Brexit/China scares or whatever…. however, I remind myself of a few key assumptions.

a.) The NZ economy is likely to continue to outperform others for some time. Current NZ economic forecasts are for over 3% GDP growth.
b.) Kiwi Saver, ACC and Super Funds give our share market some underlying strength that has not been there in the past
c.) Many NZ companies are now much more internationally diversified than has been so in the past and are much less effected by currency fluctuations.
d.) NZ has much to benefit from its many increasing free-trade agreements

Then I remind myself that I am personally best suited to being a long term investor (learning from the likes of Ben Graham and Jim Slater) that:

1.) The money I invest has to be ‘patient money’ (using Jim Slaters term)
2.) By not cashing up (or down) every time the market get scared, I save commision fees
3.) By being long term, I save by not paying tax on capital gains
4.) By choosing smaller cap NZ stocks often out of the eye of the intitutions I am often protected by the worst of the swings caused by changes in market sentiment.
5.) Good NZ companies will continue to perform irrespective of overseas market sentiment and still pay dividends
6.) That ‘downturns’ such as that NZX is experiencing at the moment are merely hiccups in the long term growth of NZX and present useful opportunities to review our portfolios and purchase some oversold companies that we once deemed too expensive.

Thus unlike Roger and others, I have NOT significantly cashed up as the USA election uncertainty unfolds. My portfolio is still strongly in positive territory (excluding dividends) and hopefully well-positioned, awaiting the next NZ reporting season with interest.

Disc - This just my humble opinion. I'm sure many will disagree. I am content with that.

[Joshuatree]

Enjoyed your post LF.just one query ; generalising here re smaller cap stocks tend to have more risk and volatility until they are proven bigger companies when one can "sit" on them and ride out risk/riskoff, mkt turmoils etc and re 50% of NZ stocks owned by overseas Instos etc can still have an impact as it seems to have here ; on prop and care stocks for example.
More back on Rogers thread ; id be int in your portfolio picks in this situ ; no prob if not.

[Beagle]

Fair enough Left field and good post.
I'm into it for the long term too but with a healthy risk management approach when I sense the market is over-priced relative to all known risks I'm prepared to make that call and move to a large cash position. With the FBI clearing Hillary I think FOMO probably just got its nose in front of FOML (Fear of missing out > Fear of more losses)

P.S. Given the market tone and FBI announcement today I changed the thread title to happy Monday :)

[macduffy]

Not a lot to disagree with there, Left field. I'm well-invested too although did take the opportunity to prune out a few non-performers - just in case! New Zealand's increased international diversification and free trade agreements do have their downside though, increasing exposure to adverse events overseas.

[Bobdn]

Nice post Left Field.

[Major von Tempsky]

BIL, IEL and IEP.
And Spark of course :-).

[kiora]

BIL, IEL and IEP.
And Spark of course :-).

You're showing your age MvT :)

[Valuegrowth]

I think I'll go long the S&P 500. Although I'd keep my finger on the sell button. Even if she wins we may be in for a very bumpy ride over the next few months. Whoever win there should be demand for selected stocks. However, we cannot expect any major rally until 2017. Moreover, we could see kind of Santa rally as well. Asian-Pacific region should outperform European market in the coming weeks.

[Leftfield]

Enjoyed your post LF.just one query ; generalising here re smaller cap stocks tend to have more risk and volatility until they are proven bigger companies when one can "sit" on them and ride out risk/riskoff, mkt turmoils etc and re 50% of NZ stocks owned by overseas Instos etc can still have an impact as it seems to have here ; on prop and care stocks for example.
More back on Rogers thread ; id be int in your portfolio picks in this situ ; no prob if not.

Thanks JT.

Small cap stocks I have done well in over the recent long term are; ATM and BLT (These are up 260% and 106% at todays prices and represent just over 50% of my portfolio.) I hope to be riding these shares for some time yet and note that ATM is proving nicely resilient in the current slump.

I'm also well out of TIL which did well for a while, but at the end of the day IMHO is only selling overpriced perfumes, potions and candles.

My worst small cap performers are PEB and PLX, however, I have no intention in selling at as they represent only 9% of my portfolio and while they may be negative up to 20%, I consider they have huge potential in the long term.

Not quite a small cap, but at the moment I like FPH which seems to have been badly marked down due to their impending legal cases and poor USA elections market sentiment. Watching carefully.

That's enough of me. I'm just a learner on this thread, and I stress this is just my risk/benefit strategy. I do not recommend it for all. As usual DYOR.

[Beagle]

FWIW I increased my stake in ARG and HLG today.

[Yoda]

Lets keep this thread positive, enough doom and gloom out there and talk of what happens if Trump wins.

So assuming Clinton wins, what stocks will you buy in a hurry on Thursday on the basis that you think they're materially oversold ?

Getting back to your original question, i think SUM and NZR
both are oversold just now i think , with both coming off a double bottom W pattern . Low volumes with NZR but may get to 2.50 and pull back to 2.4 consolidation and then move on up.
SUM had big volumes today . Maybe coming off a 3 week W pattern with the right leg higher than the left point .
I think this is a good time to buy, so have, but will sell if they break down past my entry point by 3 % . If they go up again for the next few days i might buy more after the election possibly

i have sold most of my dogey Risky stock that has kept me back in recent months, and am trying to take advantage of this current market low. I have cashed out 25% . sold AWK HLG TIL THL OGC PPH SCL XRO . Just playing it safe I might buy some of them back if they rise up to their highest Previous point , as it seems to me that a good profit-making stock that matches it last high point usually goes up some more.

I would like to buy back THL SCL. And possibly TIL when the sentiment is rising.

i wonder if it will be HAPPY TUESDAY Roger ?

[Beagle]

Thanks for your thoughts Yoda and a good curly question. That as they say, is the $64,000 question ! It was certainly quite a bounce today. My sense is that around 7000 on the NZX is fair value if Clinton wins. Put's the market forward PE on just over 18 which is slightly higher than the long run average but we do have interest rates at a generational low so that's supportive of the market as is the sound forecast GDP, low unemployment and strong migration. With interest rates so incredibly low people have to get a return somewhere. That said I'd be a bit cautious of another bounce tomorrow, this thing isn't over until as they say, the fat lady sings and its never over until its over as we all witnessed with the America's cup. The other concern in my mind is does Trump concede, demand a recount or is there some sort of civil unrest ahead, (is he so grossly reckless and arrogant as to incite unrest ?, does this man know any bounds to his behaviour ?) based on his brazen repeated claims the election is rigged ?

FWIW I'm cautious and unlikely to buy anything more tomorrow. https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nz-shares-climb-after-fbi-clears-clinton-bargain-hunters-return-b-196390

[whatsup]

The NZSX was up 164 points or 2.44% today Im betting that that is a one day record, nothing on the NEWS or anywhere but if that was a fall of that magnitude then it would be all over the news , the sky is falling, funny thing this human race !!

[macduffy]

The NZSX was up 164 points or 2.44% today Im betting that that is a one day record, nothing on the NEWS or anywhere but if that was a fall of that magnitude then it would be all over the news , the sky is falling, funny thing this human race !!

Not quite "nothing", whatsup, but we Kiwis are a glass half empty race.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11743815

"We'll pay for it we'll pay for it!"

;)

[whatsup]

Not quite "nothing", whatsup, but we Kiwis are a glass half empty race.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11743815

"We'll pay for it we'll pay for it!"

;)

Mac, I was meaning yesterday/last night up until I posted there was nothing on the news anywhere that said anything about that astounding rise , if we had fallen by the amount it would have been headlines every where.

[couta1]

Looks like a Happy week has fallen upon us, the gloom merchants may have to go back to the drawing board for the meantime anyway.

[skid]

I used to buy into all this speculation of what will happen post USA elections/Brexit/China scares or whatever…. however, I remind myself of a few key assumptions.

a.) The NZ economy is likely to continue to outperform others for some time. Current NZ economic forecasts are for over 3% GDP growth.
b.) Kiwi Saver, ACC and Super Funds give our share market some underlying strength that has not been there in the past
c.) Many NZ companies are now much more internationally diversified than has been so in the past and are much less effected by currency fluctuations.
d.) NZ has much to benefit from its many increasing free-trade agreements

Then I remind myself that I am personally best suited to being a long term investor (learning from the likes of Ben Graham and Jim Slater) that:

1.) The money I invest has to be ‘patient money’ (using Jim Slaters term)
2.) By not cashing up (or down) every time the market get scared, I save commision fees
3.) By being long term, I save by not paying tax on capital gains
4.) By choosing smaller cap NZ stocks often out of the eye of the intitutions I am often protected by the worst of the swings caused by changes in market sentiment.
5.) Good NZ companies will continue to perform irrespective of overseas market sentiment and still pay dividends
6.) That ‘downturns’ such as that NZX is experiencing at the moment are merely hiccups in the long term growth of NZX and present useful opportunities to review our portfolios and purchase some oversold companies that we once deemed too expensive.

Thus unlike Roger and others, I have NOT significantly cashed up as the USA election uncertainty unfolds. My portfolio is still strongly in positive territory (excluding dividends) and hopefully well-positioned, awaiting the next NZ reporting season with interest.

Disc - This just my humble opinion. I'm sure many will disagree. I am content with that.

I think there is one flaw in your logic LF--It relies on the markets doing basically ok internationally (aside from some small ups and downs) As long as that happens NZ is free to outperform on a Micro level. But if international markets run into bigger problems ,they will surly take the NZ market down with them (probably to an even greater degree as there will be capital flight) What we have seen of late is a reaction to international markets.That goes for the bounce yesterday as well(FBI Clinton effect)
I believe the ''long term holder''effect depends on growth and inflation.That is something that is not happening like it did before--Its the one important thing that has fallen from the equation in international economies,which begs the question ''can we continue to grow forever?'' Will time always save us?
Its great to see the NZ economy going well (far better than seeing it falter)but it operates within the globalized economy and the concept that NZ can ''go it alone'' is fantasy IMO unless the international community behaves itself--What we have just seen with the DOW bears that out--(Its what has caused the problem that has given rise to defend the NZX and NZ economy,in the first place)
Right now things are looking rosy because Clinton appears to have gotten a ''get out of jail free card''(thank goodness) but in todays world we need to keep one eye abroad--As long as decisions made by other powerful players dont sink the ship,NZ should carry on like you have predicted ,but there is no way it can do it in a vacuum--our population is to small.(maybe if we were China or the US we could depend on our own economy to keep things afloat)Free trade,internationally diversified,are the very reasons why things like US elections,China,and Brexit can, and will affect us.We are are unfortunately for a large part ,at their mercy.

PS-the markets have generally been ''behaving themselves for quite a few years now---enough to take things for granted

[Joshuatree]

Except skid; I'm starting to think nz can carry on alone as it has for some years as its becoming the plan b escape to paradise for the rest of the world..away from terrorists(so far), too far away from millions of refugees and boat people. Blessed with a great growing climate and plenty of water/ power. The govt is being more selective and people are happy to invest $10 mill here to get fast tracked to citizenship. Something like $2 Billion has been bought in with just a few thousand immigrants in last couple of years and its increasing i believe..The nuclear deterrent is starting to worry people again with tensions mounting between Russia ,USA etc. NZ is becoming the bolthole at the bottom of the world. So infrastructure, business, everything grows.

[silu]

I had a little think last night and decided the best additions to the bottom drawer for me continue to be in the retirement sector. So using some of the profits taken from MEL and SUM (which I had loads of) to buy more RYM & MET which were a little under-represented in my long-term portfolio.

Generally I have a positive view of the NZ market over the coming years. Sure there will be money flowing out with rising interest rates, fluctuating dairy prices and perhaps a reduction in immigration levels but the location of our three amazing islands (apologies to any smaller ones) away from most turmoil, stability in government and our openeness in trade should keep the economy trucking along.

[Hoop]

I used to buy into all this speculation of what will happen post USA elections/Brexit/China scares or whatever…. however, I remind myself of a few key assumptions.

a.) The NZ economy is likely to continue to outperform others for some time. Current NZ economic forecasts are for over 3% GDP growth.
b.) Kiwi Saver, ACC and Super Funds give our share market some underlying strength that has not been there in the past
c.) Many NZ companies are now much more internationally diversified than has been so in the past and are much less effected by currency fluctuations.
d.) NZ has much to benefit from its many increasing free-trade agreements

Then I remind myself that I am personally best suited to being a long term investor (learning from the likes of Ben Graham and Jim Slater) that:

1.) The money I invest has to be ‘patient money’ (using Jim Slaters term)
2.) By not cashing up (or down) every time the market get scared, I save commision fees
3.) By being long term, I save by not paying tax on capital gains
4.) By choosing smaller cap NZ stocks often out of the eye of the intitutions I am often protected by the worst of the swings caused by changes in market sentiment.
5.) Good NZ companies will continue to perform irrespective of overseas market sentiment and still pay dividends
6.) That ‘downturns’ such as that NZX is experiencing at the moment are merely hiccups in the long term growth of NZX and present useful opportunities to review our portfolios and purchase some oversold companies that we once deemed too expensive.

Thus unlike Roger and others, I have NOT significantly cashed up as the USA election uncertainty unfolds. My portfolio is still strongly in positive territory (excluding dividends) and hopefully well-positioned, awaiting the next NZ reporting season with interest.

Disc - This just my humble opinion. I'm sure many will disagree. I am content with that.

Good post Left field.

I agree for 85% of it..that is buy and hold for 5 years average (Sailing strategy). Row or sell up for 9 months average..

There was a very important saying floating around ST during the last Bear Market cycle (2007-2008)..The market giveth and the market taketh away..

During very long Bull market cycles (as we are experiencing for the last 7.5 years) investor behaviour changes as they either forget the distant past and think the past is past and there is now a new order or they are lulled into a false sense of security that because the economy is still recovering (after 7 years and still recovering..really!) the share market up trend will remain intact for years to come....Also there are a growing amount of new investors who have never experienced the savagery of a bear market cycle.

Back in 2009, if you mentioned buy and hold investing you were labelled as crazy just to enter the market, but in reality when the Bear ended and the cyclic reversal back to Bull Market was confirmed it was the best time to commence using the long term investment strategies and the best strategy is the the buy and hold strategy...

Now in 2016 after 7.5 year Bull market cycle all we hear is we should still adopt the buy & hold strategy...

A few of us on ST have been identifying all the factors and causatives that could trigger a cyclical reversal..Equities being only one cog in the overall network gearbox there are a complex array of correlated behaviours which have to line up to create an equity cyclical reversal....OK sounds easy to pick a top and sell out...no not that simple any more..The Central Banks also do their homework and watch the signs and manipulate to starve off big economic market corrections/reversals and smoothing out the large bumps in the road. They have had good success and because of that success it has prolonged the bull market cycle which in turn have created investors with a "bullet proof" sense that they are in control of the markets ...taking less notice of warnings signs and "we know better" behaviour takes hold..

Therefore...new investors starting out (and older long term investors accumulating), seduced by the 7.5 year period of "good times and good times are here to stay" environment are using the long term buy and hold strategy and doing so because they've read Ben Graham and Warren Buffett the two very successful long term investors...

But it is the timing that relates to which are successful strategies...History tells us that long term buying and holding stocks at the top of the cycle will take 3 to 6 years to show a capital return (if ever, some companies simply get damaged during recessions and fail to recover back to their glory days..eg unforeseen new technical disruptors enter the weak market turning higher flyers into dinosaurs)...
Whereas buying and holding long term at the end of bear market cycle capitulations (a Buffett speciality) will give a much quicker capital return...

So being "in" the market for average 5 years and "out" for average 9 months is obviously the most successful strategy....................The hard part is to identify the cyclical "near tops and near bottoms for that exit and entry..

My opinion to Newbies entering the market now is to expect a considerable time making much less capital gain compared to the last few years.....perhaps a large loss may occur (how big a paper loss can you stand to take?)... Expect the market to often go against you (expect disappointment)...If you have 6 to 7 or more stocks in your portfolio expect one of them to become permanently damaged or cheaply taken over after the next recession...

The NZX is a very old bull therefore use "protect capital" strategies (rowing strategy)..this unfortunately rules out using a long term buy and hold strategy for the meantime and seemingly against the investing strategies of Buffett and Graham and most ST members.

[skid]

Except skid; I'm starting to think nz can carry on alone as it has for some years as its becoming the plan b escape to paradise for the rest of the world..away from terrorists(so far), too far away from millions of refugees and boat people. Blessed with a great growing climate and plenty of water/ power. The govt is being more selective and people are happy to invest $10 mill here to get fast tracked to citizenship. Something like $2 Billion has been bought in with just a few thousand immigrants in last couple of years and its increasing i believe..The nuclear deterrent is starting to worry people again with tensions mounting between Russia ,USA etc. NZ is becoming the bolthole at the bottom of the world. So infrastructure, business, everything grows.

There are plenty of pluses for NZ ,but we still have to do business with the rest of the world--their problems will become our problems--we can still, of course function as a country while those invested in the share market lose money (if the world markets go bad)--Im not necessarily saying to cash up with every tid bit of bad news---but the assumption that a country whos GDP wouldnt put a dent in Los Angeles county will carry on alone with no affect. is not realistic IMO---(the very things that make NZ nice,also make it susceptible to outside markets) One thing that concerns me is that in bad economic times our country is in danger of being ''bought''--a bit more legislation on those matters would be good. Not that many basic things would have to happen to knock us down--we are not that diversified.

Remember..NZ has been carrying on for some years because the proverbial has not hit the fan with international markets, so we have been operating in a favorable envirnment

[Leftfield]

Glad you enjoyed my post Hoop.

I also agree with your post, which essentially says we must be wary of an overdue correction (particularly newby investors who come in without a period of gains to insulate them, rising tide lifts all boats etc.)

We should always be wary of a black Monday occurring, however IMHO what is happening at the moment in the NZX50 is a healthy correction, not a major downturn. Just my opinion.

I might be right, I might be wrong. We will know a lot more at the end of this week after the USA elections, and if Trump triumphs I'll become much, much more pessimistic.

[Hoop]

Good thoughts Skid..

Also NZ economy has had enormous benefits from the previous trend towards globalisation..That pendulum is swinging the other way now as there is evidence that protectionism is gaining favour...so expect trade barriers, restrictions, tarriffs, stupid insane laws (due to public pressure), increasing trend towards nationalisation of vital industries.. Most "too big to let fail" companies are global and are very powerful, so it becomes scary because they won't like becoming trade restricted..Also NZ won't do as well with a changing trend to global protectionism..

NZ being in danger of being "bought"..it's already happened Skid and NZers rely on this "bought" status...Most home mortgages are from overseas lenders..Our every day lifestyle is overseas dependant with all our communication/social networks derived from overseas companies..Most of our financial transactions use overseas companies..every smart phone is derived from overseas...Hell even your unhealthy snack or lunch probably comes from an overseas company :D and your travel and travel costs to get your lunch is derived from overseas companies..

Imagine NZ becoming "unbought".. going back towards protectionism ...:p..Now that might see a NZX50 PE10 ratio of 5 instead of todays 22**...eh

** http://www.starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation

[BlackPeter]

Good thoughts Skid..
...

Imagine NZ becoming "unbought".. going back towards protectionism ...:p..Now that might see a NZX50 PE10 ratio of 5 instead of todays 22...eh

Great posts (from LF as well from Hoop) and good discussion.

Having said that - if NZ becomes more protectionist, than yes - I'd expect the NZX50 to fall down a cliff, but not sure, whether I expect the PE to go down significantly - since a low PE would require good earnings ... ;)

[Joshuatree]

Good discussion guys thanks. i still think our safe haven status and primary industry advantages will cushion us; we are in a unique desirable to the world position. Not saying we won't correct somewhat if global mkts tank and they may well do;USA is overpriced for example. We are one lucky country atpit.

[skid]

Good thoughts Skid..

Also NZ economy has had enormous benefits from the previous trend towards globalisation..That pendulum is swinging the other way now as there is evidence that protectionism is gaining favour...so expect trade barriers, restrictions, tarriffs, stupid insane laws (due to public pressure), increasing trend towards nationalisation of vital industries.. Most "too big to let fail" companies are global and are very powerful, so it becomes scary because they won't like becoming trade restricted..Also NZ won't do as well with a changing trend to global protectionism..

NZ being in danger of being "bought"..it's already happened Skid and NZers rely on this "bought" status...Most home mortgages are from overseas lenders..Our every day lifestyle is overseas dependant with all our communication/social networks derived from overseas companies..Most of our financial transactions use overseas companies..every smart phone is derived from overseas...Your unhealthy snack or lunch probably comes from an overseas company and your travel and travel costs to get your lunch is derived from overseas companies..

Imagine NZ becoming "unbought".. going back towards protectionism ...:p..Now that might see a NZX50 PE10 ratio of 5 instead of todays 22...eh

Yes,I guess in many ways ,it has become ''bought''--guess i was thinking more of large going concerns like the big farms that have gone on the block.I tend to think back to what I saw in Hawaii where the Hawaiians ended up watching their assets sold off to foreign interests and ended up mostly working menial jobs like cleaning rooms in a foreign owned hotel. Im not quite sure where the tipping point comes that basically shifts power away from the county and its inhabitants to foreign ownership.
Of course this becomes much more common now that we are in the age of multinational corporations. sometimes they are great for the economy,and sometimes they are just a means of shifting capital out of the country. so protectionist policies IMO should be used ,but used wisely. Perhaps a limit to the size of a major farm to foreign buyer.Perhaps it must be in partnership with a Kiwi firm.I guess the balancing point is to make things attractive enough to attract foreign interests,without actually selling out to them,especially if the spoils go to a select few 1%ers. Regulation is a dirty word(especially in the USA model of economics)but it can be a useful tool when considering the benefit to most of the country. It would be a shame if New Zealand became like another victim of a ''Brierly'' style ''buy and dismantle'' for profit style commodity or simply an avenue for someone elses income stream--like a handy retirement village for rich Americans that want to get away from the problems they have created in their own country.(unless they want to rent rather than own)---At what point do they become the guardians rather than the guests. Im horrified that Im starting to sound like Trump,but there is a multitude of differences--the main being that we welcome,but with some limitations.Its a pretty special place here (outsiders probably see this more than us as we have gotten used to it,so we should maybe start thinking of ways to avoid spoiling the nest--it may just be the very thing that attracts foreign interests more on our terms,rather than theirs.

Just thinking out loud-- Disc-not running for office:D

[Beagle]

Good discussion guys thanks. i still think our safe haven status and primary industry advantages will cushion us; we are in a unique desirable to the world position. Not saying we won't correct somewhat if global mkts tank and they may well do;USA is overpriced for example. We are one lucky country atpit.

Very good discussion and I tend to agree with Joshuatree but Hoop, Left Field and others make some great points too. I was chatting with a highly intelligent migrant from the U.K. at a BBQ on the weekend and it was interesting to hear about the deep level of unhappiness many U.K. and European residents feel about their present situation. The racial tension caused by the mass exodus of Syrian refugees is wrecking havoc on many European countries and the level of dissatisfaction in the U.K. over Brexit is huge for some. We are a relatively safe clean and green country, stable politically and we enjoy an imputation system, (not many countries have this) which makes our market very attractive from a gross yield perspective.

NBR are reporting a forward PE of about 18 at the current market level which as mentioned yesterday seems pretty reasonable all things considered, especially ultra low interest rates which I think are here to stay a lot lower for a lot longer than many others might be forecasting. Low international growth will encourage central banks to keep interests rates low and against that backdrop and modest economic growth a market gross yield of about 5.5% is attractive.
I think that underpins us going forward barring any major exogenous shock and I favour at this point relatively safe and durable yield from the REIT's which I think have been marked down too far on interest rate and other market concerns.

[Hoop]

Great posts (from LF as well from Hoop) and good discussion.

Having said that - if NZ becomes more protectionist, than yes - I'd expect the NZX50 to fall down a cliff, but not sure, whether I expect the PE to go down significantly - since a low PE would require good earnings ... ;)

PE10 ratio is a trader long term behavioural thing...You could have this PE(10) ratio of 5 value scenario...increased earnings with big fall in share price...sounds like a paradox but it could happen when investors are fully invested with very limited access to margin lending (Regulation/protectionism) together with overseas investors clobbered with insane restrictions (xenophobia/protectionism) leave the market for a more favourable financial environment..

Us NZer's are miserable sods when it comes to money..we love cheap bargains and more bang for our buck therefore when the NZX becomes NZ investor dominated again expect the PE ratio to trend down..also inflation is the primary PE(10) trend driver, so if inflation goes up so does yield rates for competing financial instruments thereby reducing Equity yields attractiveness (PE(10) falls)

[macduffy]

I'm not sure about NZ being "bought". Foreign capital has always been necessary for young countries - there was a time when virtually our entire pastoral sector was financed - and largely owned - by overseas interests, eg the meat processing and exporting companies, shipping companies, wool brokers etc.

The important bit now is what happens with the capital freed up by selling established assets to foreigners. Does it get re-invested in new ventures, infrastucture and other developments in NZ or does it get "repatriated" back offshore and/or used to further inflate local property and other asset values?

[arc]

Except skid; I'm starting to think nz can carry on alone as it has for some years as its becoming the plan b escape to paradise for the rest of the world..away from terrorists(so far), too far away from millions of refugees and boat people. Blessed with a great growing climate and plenty of water/ power. The govt is being more selective and people are happy to invest $10 mill here to get fast tracked to citizenship. Something like $2 Billion has been bought in with just a few thousand immigrants in last couple of years and its increasing i believe..The nuclear deterrent is starting to worry people again with tensions mounting between Russia ,USA etc. NZ is becoming the bolthole at the bottom of the world. So infrastructure, business, everything grows.

Ahhh ... not totally accurate. There was an "incident" a short time ago that apparently required some "very quick reactions"... here in NZ.

The "buy your way into NZ" concept is becoming popular... pity that modern kids are becoming the new have-nots, as we sell out. I heard some group talking about changing the buy-to-own option/rights, recommending some sort of "Lease it while your alive".. clause for overseas potential buyers.

[Joshuatree]

Yeah I'm sure not endorsing the "buy your way into NZ" is the ideal way for our country with all the problems that can come with it; its a "sign of the times"(great prince album btw.Lease it while you're alive very int.

[Hoop]

NBR are reporting a forward PE of about 18 at the current market level which as mentioned yesterday seems pretty reasonable all things considered, especially ultra low interest rates which I think are here to stay a lot lower for a lot longer than many others might be forecasting.

Good discussion Roger.. but you and I differ on the accuracies of the standard PE Ratio..I don't rely on low PE Ratio's as always a good thing..Quote from Turner Hopkins (http://www.turnerhopkins.co.nz/post.php/nzx50-all-time-high-109/)(assuming they are correct)In May 2007, NZ shares were trading at a PE ratio of 16.9, 21 per cent above the 20-year average of 14.0...
The NZX50 PE Ratios danger sign levels are lower than that of Wall St so we can't really compare (a bit like apples and pears).. I think that is due to NZ having a commodity driven economy and many Stocks on the NZX market are Cyclical stocks..Remember my harping on a while back on the AIR thread (when AIR was $3) about cyclical stocks with very low PE Ratios being a major warning sign..We have the non growth/high yield Utilities with their charactistic very high PE ratio values (influenced by depreciation) to balance the Cyclical stock out but the NZX index is still outweighed by Cyclicals..then you have major stocks that have a PE of 0 (http://www.topyields.nl/nzx50-best-dividend-stocks/) as they've made no earnings after D I and T in a certain year such as Contact and Xero etc..
I also found after years of share investing that forward PE is equalivent to adding a suspect valuation measure with a crystal ball...that unfortunately when a cyclic reversal happens we fail to believe it as the forward PE is usually not that high to warrant selling out..

Although PE(10) [other names CAPE Shiller] has it's own faults it does reflect a better overall valuation than PE Ratio and although comparing PE(10) between NZ and Wall St is still a little dodgy it is a far better comparrision than using PE Ratio.

The NZX50 PE(10) was at 22 on the 30th September compared to S&P500 value of 25.5 on the same date (http://www.starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation)...Since then the S&P500 PE(10) has risen from 25.5 to yesterdays 27 (http://www.gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php) (+61.7% above "normal" valuation)..No data for NZX50 for yesterday.

Cyclic reversals to Bear Market is nearly guaranteed when PE(10) goes above 25.

Note of interest 61.8 is a Fibonacci Ratio :ohmy::p

[Beagle]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/market-close-nzx-50-drops-4-month-low-b-196353
David Price broker at Forsyth Barr reckons the market PE is about 18 based on the four month low at commencement of trading on Monday, this compares to a five year average of 17. (Disc: I haven't checked his figures). Happy to accept your 20 year average at face value Hoop but a market average over 20 years of 14 doesn't take into account that we're in an era of ultra low interest rates now so I remain of the view that 18 times is reasonable with 10 year Govt bonds at ~ 2.5%.


So assuming Clinton wins, what stocks will you buy in a hurry on Thursday on the basis that you think they're materially oversold ?

Having had a good debate about a range of issues perhaps it's time we returned to the central key question of this thread.

My answers for what they're worth backed by action are
ARG, GMT and HLG. Added yesterday and today.

I am hoping Clinton wins but will take early action to avoid capital loss in the event of the loose cannon winning.

[skid]

Good discussion guys thanks. i still think our safe haven status and primary industry advantages will cushion us; we are in a unique desirable to the world position. Not saying we won't correct somewhat if global mkts tank and they may well do;USA is overpriced for example. We are one lucky country atpit.

We should IMO be taking that a step further(primary industries) we need to find more ways to ''value add''--In a way ,that is what ATM has done. we should be looking at our primary industries and looking at ways to make secondary products ,and perhaps importing(immigration) more world class specialty cheese makers,etc. meanwhile more Organic products,Anything made from crystal clear NZ spring water,etc etc.

[Joshuatree]

Yes, but that conversation has been going on for a long time. I have no idea whether we have actioned it re diversifying / adding value.Anyone got any stats to say we've made any/much ground there.

[Leftfield]

Good discussion guys thanks. i still think our safe haven status and primary industry advantages will cushion us; we are in a unique desirable to the world position. Not saying we won't correct somewhat if global mkts tank and they may well do;USA is overpriced for example. We are one lucky country atpit.

Totally agree!

[Bobdn]

Most of us have made a ton of money since 2009. I don't fear a 30% plus drop in shares as long as 1) the companies are still standing afterwards and 2) I'm still working.

[kiora]

Good discussion guys thanks. i still think our safe haven status and primary industry advantages will cushion us; we are in a unique desirable to the world position. Not saying we won't correct somewhat if global mkts tank and they may well do;USA is overpriced for example. We are one lucky country atpit.

Don't forget our $1.2 b IT exports(some representation in listed shares) plus film industry $3.2 b in exports 2015 (not represented,wonder if any will list one day?)

[James108]

Most of us have made a ton of money since 2009. I don't fear a 30% plus drop in shares as long as 1) the companies are still standing afterwards and 2) I'm still working.

This. As long as I keep my job a market crash is best case scenario for me.

[Beagle]

As a type... what a disaster appears to be unfolding for the markets.

One leading betting agency now has Trump at the un-backable odds of $1.01 to win and Hillary is at $21.

The other day Craigs Mark Lister expressed the opinion that he thought the market would tank 10% with a Trump victory.

Back to the black Monday thread me thinks.

[winner69]

As a type... what a disaster appears to be unfolding for the markets.

One leading betting agency now has Trump at the un-backable odds of $1.01 to win and Hillary is at $21.

The other day Craigs Mark Lister expressed the opinion that he thought the market would tank 10% with a Trump victory.

Back to the black Monday thread me thinks.

And Mark is a born optimist - so probably the 10% will be 20%

[Beagle]

And Mark is a born optimist - so probably the 10% will be 20%

That my friend.... is worthy of a poll

[winner69]

That my friend.... is worthy of a poll

But you have plenty of cash to make a killing in a few weeks / months time

[Bobdn]

Yes! That's the spirit Winner.

[Hoop]

Yes! That's the spirit Winner.

yeah....no worries ;)

[Bobdn]

Yes indeed. Was thinking of you Hoop. Good stuff.

[Bobdn]

Down $18k yesterday afternoon. Up 20k this morning. I bet I never see a swing this size again.

[LegendOfRiot]

Was going to top up this morning but was too slow apparently.

[macduffy]

Was going to top up this morning but was too slow apparently.

Instead, it might be a good day to have another critical look at the portfolio and drop any non-performers!

[winner69]

Was going to top up this morning but was too slow apparently.

Yep had to do it yesterday afternoon eh

Be patient, you'll no doubt get another go or two

[see weed]

What we need is a good solid crash, none of this tiddlywinks Brexit style mini crashes. The only way to make a bit of dosh in these mini falls is to buy at end of crash day, eg yesterday. My best preformer today is ATM up 330%...$66k and AIR next at +8.96%...$16 k. Overall up 22.63%....$80k:t_up:. Am in the process of buying up some more....let you know at end of day.

[silu]

Unfortunately by the time I got in front of a computer again the NZX was closed but bought a couple of stocks on the ASX that seem to have been punished by the afternoon sell-off yesterday and lets hope they go the same way as the NZ market this morning. May as well make some money when irrational fear freaks the market.

[Leftfield]

What we need is a good solid crash, none of this tiddlywinks Brexit style mini crashes. The only way to make a bit of dosh in these mini falls is to buy at end of crash day, eg yesterday. My best preformer today is ATM up 330%...$66k and AIR next at +8.96%...$16 k. Overall up 22.63%....$80k:t_up:. Am in the process of buying up some more....let you know at end of day.

Up by a similar $ amount (in total up 36%YTD )........ However my difference is that I've not pressed the buy/sell button for several months.

Keep calm and carry on! Interesting times ahead.

[sb9]

Up by a similar $ amount (in total up 36%YTD )........ However my difference is that I've not pressed the buy/sell button for several months.

Keep calm and carry on! Interesting times ahead.

Agree 100%, likewise haven't done anything with portfolio over past few days.

Had some spare cash though just in case if there are any tempting top ups (like ATM)...

[couta1]

NZX still looking a bit timid compared with the ASX, currently down around 1.2% from the pre drop yesterday whilst the ASX is up around the same.

[Leftfield]

NZX still looking a bit timid compared with the ASX, currently down around 1.2% from the pre drop yesterday whilst the ASX is up around the same.

Early days me thinks. NZ$ shot up today which hurts some, but now fallen back to more realistic levels. US$ should strengthen over the next month or so?

IMHO NZX is in a healthy correction, and it may fluctuate sideways till the results season early 2017. Time will tell.

(In the mean time, Just keep President Elect Don away from playing with any red buttons)

[sb9]

NZX still looking a bit timid compared with the ASX, currently down around 1.2% from the pre drop yesterday whilst the ASX is up around the same.

Sure do, looks like clouds are setting in this arvo...most of the big gains from this morning starting to fade away, so the rally appears to be bit of DCB perhaps??

[see weed]

What we need is a good solid crash, none of this tiddlywinks Brexit style mini crashes. The only way to make a bit of dosh in these mini falls is to buy at end of crash day, eg yesterday. My best preformer today is ATM up 330%...$66k and AIR next at +8.96%...$16 k. Overall up 22.63%....$80k:t_up:. Am in the process of buying up some more....let you know at end of day.
My next play is......HLG.....Have accumulated 60,000 in last couple of months. $10,000 div coming up plus.......Bought 10,000 today, go you little....:t_up:.

[777]

NZ compared Aust performance today. Getting a handle on this market is not easy. Have this feeling the US and Europe markets could be down tonight as reality sets in.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com

[see weed]

NZ compared Aust performance today. Getting a handle on this market is not easy. Have this feeling the US and Europe markets could be down tonight as reality sets in.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com
You are on wrong thread. This is happy Monday not Black Monday:D.

[Valuegrowth]

Until end of this year we cannot expect major rally in stocks markets except for Santa rally and rally for selected stocks. Exception is Asian-pacific region. We may see some volatility as well.

In bull market buy the dip is a good strategy. Similarly, sell the rally in bull markets is also not a good strategy.

[Hoop]

You are on wrong thread. This is happy Monday not Black Monday:D.

Shame on you 777..A month ago I got told off for straying off topic..

I have seen the evils of my way and I am now a born again topic poster

http://cache.lovethispic.com/uploaded_images/197805-Good-Grief-Happy-Monday.jpg

[see weed]

Funny old thing the market. The DJ up again, what a turn around. NZX up today?:).

[couta1]

Funny old thing the market. The DJ up again, what a turn around. NZX up today?:). Don't be so positive see weed, you'll upset the gloom merchants, no doubt it won't be long before a new gloom focus comes along to keep those with a gloomy disposition fed. As the saying goes, it will all come out in the wash.

[winner69]

Don't be so positive see weed, you'll upset the gloom merchants, no doubt it won't be long before a new gloom focus comes along to keep those with a gloomy disposition fed. As the saying goes, it will all come out in the wash.

That's why they call it the wall of worry

[Beagle]

Hope you folks don't mind but I thought a tread title change would make it more relevant.

[RGR367]

Hope you folks don't mind but I thought a tread title change would make it more relevant.

Sorry but the title alone is worrying enough. I now say "WhatTheTrump" instead of "What the F..k" here in the office. So pissed off with the result I'm thinking not to proceed with the plan to visit that land called "home of the brave and free guns for all".

[Joshuatree]

Couta1. Don't do this ,don't do that ,tuttut. Maybe put this unhappy post on the BLACK monday thread.

Another gREAT dAY in," Aotearoa rugged individual; glistens like a pearl; at the bottom of the world"(Tim Finn)
We are in a truly lucky blessed country away from so many troubles.

[couta1]

Couta1. Don't do this ,don't do that ,tuttut. Maybe put this unhappy post on the BLACK monday thread.

Another gREAT dAY in," Aotearoa rugged individual; glistens like a pearl; at the bottom of the world"(Tim Finn)
We are in a truly lucky blessed country away from so many troubles. This was the Happy Monday thread but that's now been Trumped as we wait in anticipation for Black Monday.

[Joshuatree]

Looks like I've been Trumped:)

[fish]

Looks like I've been Trumped:)

Only if you are playing cards.
Its taken a day for me to adjust my life and investment plans-which I liken more to a game of chess-you plan a few moves ahead but then you face a surprise move.
Time to take advantage of market weakness
Just buying more CEN atm.
Using my margin lending which I havnt even stretched yet-and I will buy slowly and cautiously stocks which I think have been oversold

[Beagle]

Investment right at the minute feels like a game of cards with someone else holding all the Trump cards. Who can possibly know how things are going to pan out next year when Trump starts trumpeting in the changes ? Early signs are that interest rate sensitive stocks remain under pressure, Trump's expansion plans and rebuilding heartland America's economy obviously is inflationary and perhaps that's why the financials in America have improved. Inflate their way out of debt.

Feels like we're in unchartered waters to me.

[couta1]

Investment right at the minute feels like a game of cards with someone else holding all the Trump cards. Who can possibly know how things are going to pan out next year when Trump starts trumpeting in the changes ? Early signs are that interest rate sensitive stocks remain under pressure, Trump's expansion plans and rebuilding heartland America's economy obviously is inflationary and perhaps that's why the financials in America have improved. Inflate their way out of debt.

Feels like we're in unchartered waters to me. Interest rate sensitive stocks with good fundamentals are going to continue to churn out good divvies, unchartered waters, with the rough waters I've experienced on the market to date that's sounds pretty much like business as usual.

[Bobdn]

It has been a pretty crappy investing year for me. However, ANZ and BHP together account for 21% of my portfolio. Without them it would be quite the shambles.