If Trump Wins how much will the NZX50 fall over the next year ?

[Beagle]

Included for the sake of completeness is an option for a 0-10% increase.

Edit - Nice to see some early optimism...hope you good folks are right:ohmy:

[Valuegrowth]

During first half of next year NZ market should go up. Until then we may see some volatility.

[beetills]

No expert but i think everything will settle down.Do we really know what TRUMP will do and for that matter do we know what CLINTON will do after all not much policy was discussed during the campaign.

[fungus pudding]

No expert but i think everything will settle down.Do we really know what TRUMP will do and for that matter do we know what CLINTON will do after all not much policy was discussed during the campaign.

If they follow through on his policy of protectionism of the USA then their economy will be in real trouble, as will the rest of the world.
That's why it all fell out of bed as the results came in.

[Beagle]

Starting to wonder if I shouldn't have had another option for the optimists, market up 10-20%.

[Bobdn]

I'm down 18k today so far and yet....I'm happy with his win:)

[Valuegrowth]

In any situation, there will be opportunities. Drop in currency will make some winners and some losers. Drop in commodity prices will make some industries and investors winners and some losers.

[Raz]

define a time period for this one:-)

[couta1]

define a time period for this one:-) Over the next year is the timeline.

[ratkin]

Lets be honest, none of us have a clue, so there no point pretending otherwise

[iluab]

define a time period for this one:-)

My vote is for a partial come back in US markets during tonight's session, still down but not the 5% implied at present in the futures, markets still stamery Thursday but with politico's working overtime to reassure markets, buying opportunity over during the US Friday session, markets up higher than yesterday's close by next week once the uncertainty is cleared and markets have some certainty once again, even if it wasn't the expected certainty.

Make the most of the op folks, wish you all luck with that.

[Valuegrowth]

I agree Markets should rebound by Friday.

My vote is for a partial come back in US markets during tonight's session, still down but not the 5% implied at present in the futures, markets still stamery Thursday but with politico's working overtime to reassure markets, buying opportunity over during the US Friday session, markets up higher than yesterday's close by next week once the uncertainty is cleared and markets have some certainty once again, even if it wasn't the expected certainty.

Make the most of the op folks, wish you all luck with that.

[Stranger_Danger]

Keep in mind,about the only promise anyone expects him to keep is getting rid of Janet Yellen. That is the sort of thing one may wish to start thinking about.

Mexican walls? Kicking out Muslims? I don't believe a word of it.

[bottomfeeder]

The markets around the world and in NZ are really at quite a high. Something like the US elections is only a catalyst as to which way the market will go. I say down, but I believe any major event would have done the same thing. The propensity of a high market is always to go down. Long term however it will be dependant on interest rates and inflation. On that note in 12 months time the market will be down by 10%, nothing to do with Trump, but just inflation and interest rate increases.

[arc]

The markets are ripe for a fall anyway, Look at the conditions since 2015, stagnation for the American market (in reality) yes there have been some rises but look at how fast the paper veneer falls apart when real pressure emerges.

Trumps election might just escalate either the timeframe or the depth, (or both).

I expect a fall for a week or so then a dead cat bounce, then .. unsure. T

The truth is Trump cant put the American Auto-industry back on its feet and in a winning position, he cant rebuild the engineering infrastructure... thats gone.. the rust-belt states will still be that way 8 years from now... thats the real reason the markets are in for a correction... Reality. The "substance" of the American dream is eroding as the impact of Globalization slowly advances through every country on earth. Its inevitable, he cant stop it, no-one can, we live in a connected world.

Blond wigs cant fix real situations. The hot air balloon now has to make the rubber meet the road.... yeah right..

[Sideshow Bob]

Can one of he options please be changed?

Should be TRUMPAGGEDON! :scared:

[blackcap]

Interesting to see the gross overreaction yesterday. The Dow futures were down 700 odd points at one stage, NZ went down over 200 points but now the Dow is up 180 points at all time highs. Wonder how much NZ will rebound today. Going by world markets, NZ should pare back all the 200 points and some but maybe that is a stretch as the NZ market generally does not do Yuge daily gains. Interesting times ahead though, JK just saying the TTP is dead.

[Beagle]

The markets are ripe for a fall anyway, Look at the conditions since 2015, stagnation for the American market (in reality) yes there have been some rises but look at how fast the paper veneer falls apart when real pressure emerges.

Trumps election might just escalate either the timeframe or the depth, (or both).

I expect a fall for a week or so then a dead cat bounce, then .. unsure. T

The truth is Trump cant put the American Auto-industry back on its feet and in a winning position, he cant rebuild the engineering infrastructure... thats gone.. the rust-belt states will still be that way 8 years from now... thats the real reason the markets are in for a correction... Reality. The "substance" of the American dream is eroding as the impact of Globalization slowly advances through every country on earth. Its inevitable, he cant stop it, no-one can, we live in a connected world.

Blond wigs cant fix real situations. The hot air balloon now has to make the rubber meet the road.... yeah right..

Great post. Many engines used in the auto industry in America are made in Mexico or my favourite the 6.4 litre Hemi which I believe is made in Canada. He can't disestablish all the infrastructure and reinvent the same in side America, who's going to pay for all that, America's debt is already spiralling out of control. Cut taxes and pay for the booming numbers of retiree's pensions how ?

[Aaron]

I like the poll results hardly anyone expecting a fall.

That sort of across the board optimism is required before we can get a real crash.

Why will it crash you ask? Too much debt as always and the Don is a master at dealing with debt. I wonder if he will declare America bankrupt and renege on all the US govt bonds China holds.

[Biscuit]

I think that, despite the fact he has no logical policies that I am aware of, he will follow through on what his people want. Sure, they are not going to reopen the coal mines etc - to produce a whole load of coal that no one wants, but he is going to try to turn back "globalization". This is not going to turn out well for equity markets.

[arc]

I think that, despite the fact he has no logical policies that I am aware of, he will follow through on what his people want. Sure, they are not going to reopen the coal mines etc - to produce a whole load of coal that no one wants, but he is going to try to turn back "globalization". This is not going to turn out well for equity markets.

Now theres a thought... the coal mines may presently be thought of as unwanted toxic/polluting fuel, but theres a technology on the drawing board/emerging that needs carbon sheets... for the space industry.. hmmmmm.

Trump cant reverse Globalization, thats like a man with a bucket trying to reverse the incoming tide. What he needs to do is not just embrace it but overwhelm it and rewrite traditional operating practices to move America into Distributed (decentralised) operations (go global). Go where the resources are, take the technology with you and enhance the towns/cities/farms to the benefit of all...

Money is just a transnational boundaryless entity.

My concern over this election outcome is that the result is largely based on a simple human emotion... greed. Which is understandable when you take the present degenerating state of American society, we all want food on the table and a home to live in, a job, happy kids, a holiday or two, perhaps even a walk in the native bush and a quick run down the ski slopes (gosh, starting to sound like New Zealand, no wonder the immigration web site was flooded with enquiries)...

[Biscuit]

Trump cant reverse Globalization, thats like a man with a bucket trying to reverse the incoming tide. What he needs to do is not just embrace it but overwhelm it and rewrite traditional operating practices to move America into Distributed (decentralised) operations (go global). Go where the resources are, take the technology with you and enhance the towns/cities/farms to the benefit of all...

Money is just a transnational boundaryless entity.



Isn't that just a description of globalization? Problem is the American disenfranchised voters can not "go where the resources are" (and do not have high value skills needed) they don't own the "technology" (so do not benefit from other peoples' labor) and they have no "money" (so do not benefit from being able to move it around). They are the losers in globalization. Trump cannot stop globalization (I think) but he can sure take a sledgehammer to it until the damage becomes cripplingly obvious.

[Lewylewylewy]

Trump has mad ideas, but he still has to get those ideas past "the rest" of the politicians to enact them. I maintain as I have for months now, that the NZX will fall until Dec (and a little bit into the new year), then start rising again with some degree of vigor.

[Beagle]

I think that, despite the fact he has no logical policies that I am aware of, he will follow through on what his people want. Sure, they are not going to reopen the coal mines etc - to produce a whole load of coal that no one wants, but he is going to try to turn back "globalization". This is not going to turn out well for equity markets.

Especially when they're already at stretched level's. Inflation and interest rates will raise their ugly heads in due course and then lets see if the market feels the current stretched PE is reasonable. Not only that but what's going to happen to the growth rate, (with increased protectionism), that's underpinning the current stretched valuations ? Very interesting times ahead.

[Valuegrowth]

Now it is time to re adjust portfolio as well. There will be some new opportunities. We cannot expect bigger fall in the NZ market and it has more legs. Still global central banks are supporting markets. NZ reserve bank is also following some other central banks. Today, the Reserve Bank has cut the official cash rate (OCR) to a new all time low.

I reasonably expect beginning of higher interest rates most probably from 2019 onward.

[bottomfeeder]

I saw an american "redneck" praising Trump, because all those politicians say one thing when they want to get elected, but do nothing once elected. I say Trump is now a politician. Half of his rhetoric is now out the window. I was talking to a NZ living in the US for a few years now. They over there think that Trumps wall is a great joke. Mexican drug dealers have an array of tunnels sometimes miles long from Mexico, under the border and into houses on the US side. Trump will be out in the next election, before he can implement any of his "ideas".

[mondograss]

The problem is that the Republicans now control the Presidency, the Senate and Congress. So they have Carte Blanche to do as they please. What Trump said he would do and what will actually happen are indeed likely to be two very different things since the establishment Republicans that run the govt will have their own ideas about what should happen and that will probably involve making their donors quite rich, not helping out the rural poor that voted Trump to power.

[moka]

I saw an american "redneck" praising Trump, because all those politicians say one thing when they want to get elected, but do nothing once elected. I say Trump is now a politician. Half of his rhetoric is now out the window.

You can't trust Trump to do as he said because he stated the election was rigged and he was not going to accept the result. I'm still waiting for him to keep that promise.