AIR - Air NZ.

[Hoop]

.... However whats is to stop AIR.NZ hedging 3 years forward at current prices ?????
......

Whats is to stop AIR.NZ competition hedging 3 years forward at current prices ?????

[winner69]

Thanks again to roger & all those who have contributed/researched. Topped up some more today, abit overweight.

Winner now that you've bought in i hope you're not renoun for jynxing with your plane crash scare mongering:confused: haha

Vin - one sometimes get messages from above. One of those messages years ago was 'my son winner, if you buy airline shares it is likely one of their planes will crash and hundreds will die and you will have that on your conscience for the rest of your life as I told you not to become an owner of such airline'

Fate s a funny thing - and I never wanted to be the cause of killing people so never bought airline shares.

Over the years the advice from above has been spot on. I have faith.

But been seduced by the hype around AIR I have ....... temptation was too much and I succumbed to it.

I will need to seek counsel from above methinks

[stoploss]

Whats is to stop AIR.NZ competition hedging 3 years forward at current prices ?????

probably nothing , however aren't Morningstar trying to say that oil at $ 70 a barrel is going to cost them more than say the $ 50 a barrel currently . If they hedge it , this will increase profits/ maintain profitability in the face of a rising oil price ( who knows if it does go up ) .
So AIR.NZ profit not necessarily impacted short term/ med term on oil bouncing back to $ 70 if Morningstar forecast is right .
Fine if other airlines hedge as well , they can all be profitable just like the electricity companies :)

[winner69]

I thought this little bit from Chris Lee weekly rave was insightful

THE low-cost, low-service airlines have broadened the options for air travellers but if one listens to the pilots, there will be some price to pay for the cost-cutting approach.

I met three airline pilots in Nurnberg, Germany, all Americans, one from Missouri, one from Texas, one from Florida.

They had opted out of careers with the big airlines and were flying large planes for a charter company, not for more money or even more free time, but to escape what they say is an ill-fated American obsession with cost, rather than quality.

Of course the airlines are dominated by passengers holding credit cards with free air miles, a major factor in choosing airlines in the US.

‘’Fly with us and use our credit cards,’’ the pilots jibe.

But the serious aspect of their discussion was training and safety.

They believe that the American cost-cutting obsession has led to far too much training being done in simulator rooms and far too little training being done by round table tuition from senior pilots.

They contend that you learn by listening to old pros, discussing how problems occurred, how they were spotted and how they were solved, not by simulators.

Their view, strongly put by one of the pilots, is that the airline industry provides good insight into the problems of the US and probably the globe.

‘’Far too little respect for experience, knowledge and common sense, far too much respect for cross-selling and dividends.’’


Recent flight from Hong Kong I saw the pilot looked like an 'old 'pro' and it made me feel better. But then again an American pilot (prob an old pro) died mid flight the other day and the co-pilot had to land the plane.

I hope AIR drive to improve efficiencies and to make excessive profits don't cloud their thinking in the most important part of their operations - safety

[winner69]

The 267 mark seems to be bit hard to break through

Things looking a bit weaker than this morning .....bugger

Hope excitement not diminishing

[winner69]

Hey Roger - love your $800m NPAT est

That's heap more than AIR made over the whole 7 years that Fyfe was head honcho

Fyfe was a guru .....what's Luxon then?

Methinks luck and timing has a lot to do with it ...... maybe there is something to this thinking about this year being a one in a hundred year event for AIR profits.

[Beagle]

No mate I think one of the keys to understanding their profit going forward is they're growing capacity at the fastest rate in their 75 year history off a fairly static cost base, (11,000 employees in the 2013 year and the same in the 2016 year). Fuel efficiency is another big factor with their very modern fleet. Something not a lot of people understand is that if you make an aircraft heaps more fuel efficient e.g. Dreamliner 787-9 approx. 24% more fuel efficient than the 767-300's they replace you're carrying a lot less fuel so you can carry a lot more people and freight. e.g. 767 at max 230 passengers couldn't carry max freight of 5 tons into Asia, (they either had to offload some fright or passengers as to carry full fuel, passengers and freight was beyond the aircraft's capabilities) whereas with the new aircraft type they can carry the max 15 tons of freight even with a full load of 302 passengers and full fuel and do it burning 24% less fuel per seat kilometre flown. These planes are an incredible bargain at $150m...I wonder if C.L. was talking Kiwi or $U.S ? Marilyn Munroe likes to call these new generation aircraft a derisory name, plastic planes...I reckon they're magic planes :)

What I find slightly irksome in local brokers research is they're all saying to varying degrees that AIR's fuel price tailwind will tail off and EPS decreases will surely follow with increased competition as well...but somehow Qantas with its older and less efficient fleet appears to be immune from these competition and fuel issues as consensus analyst forecast show no sign whatsoever of their EPS figures tailing off in the years ahead, go figure ?

I love the way the board leads from the front and hasn't taken a director pay increase since 2007 and none this year either. My take is the company is incredibly well positioned, superbly managed and has first class governance. I believe their high level of confidence in the current year's profit and for future years is very soundly based. Luxon is a legend in the making.
Just wait till the company starts generating one billion dollar before tax profits year in and year out what's moaning star going to say then ? Opps sorry folks we stuffed-up ?

[Snow Leopard]

Nice prediction from AIR and as they are the ones closest to the actual accounts then we can take them at face value.
And so they appear to be tracking ahead of most analysts short term expectations and a number of them have or will raise the valuations.

I will even raise mine, a little, if you like :t_up:.

However...

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc:
No AIR;
DYOR as usual.

[Beagle]

Yeah go on then:t_up: I'm starting to think I need therapy...I can't help myself buying more.

[stoploss]

Yeah go on then:t_up: I'm starting to think I need therapy...I can't help myself buying more.

I know it's secret Roger , but I'm hearing for services to AIR.NZ you have been given an invite ....

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/68839546/Air-New-Zealand-offers-secret-invite-only-Elite-Priority-One-lounge

[Beagle]

I know it's secret Roger , but I'm hearing for services to AIR.NZ you have been given an invite ....

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/68839546/Air-New-Zealand-offers-secret-invite-only-Elite-Priority-One-lounge

Damm I checked my e.mail inbox for the invite from Chris Luxon and all I found was yet another contract note for another 10,000 AIR shares...how disappointing :D

[thestg]

I first started investing in the share market in 1995 when I bought Infratil for 91 cents. I was then told the best way to invest was managed funds, so I invested in Money Managers First Step. By approx. 2008 this investment had lost me $10,000. I went back to the share market & done well for a while. I bought lots of shares in SLG & SEA with no stop loss set & sold these earlier this year at another loss of $10,000.
Just over 2 years ago I took early retirement & dedicated 4 hours each morning to studying the share market. I have developed spreadsheets to track investments & have a Stop-Loss in place to show where things are not going right.

At this point I would like to thank Roger for sharing his advice and knowledge which has helped me very much.
I am very excited how AIR is performing & wanted to get in on the action.

With not much funds I contacted my bank & they gave me an interest only mortgage of $30,000 at 5.59 percent until 2020.
This is weekly payments of $32.25.

Yesterday I purchased 11260 shares at $2.66. My stop loss (Max I am prepared to lose is $3000 (10 percent). Time is period 5 years (Length of loan).
My calculations are that if the dividends stay the same as last year (16.4c/s) I will receive $1846.64 and my mortgage repayments will be $1677.00 – so a gain of $169.64 or 0.54 percent.
I expect the dividends to be much better & with a possible share price of over $4.00 by 2020
At a share price of $4.00 in 2020 I should have a minimum profit of $15,088 of 50.3 percent (10 percent annualised)

I wish everyone the best with their AIR investment.

[freddagg]

Air has dropped 10% three times since March. If you sell after a 10% drop you will lose your $3000 plus the opportunity to make several times that.

[stoploss]

Air has dropped 10% three times since March. If you sell after a 10% drop you will lose your $3000 plus the opportunity to make several times that.

If he doesn't sell , and for what ever reason ( it's unlikely but stranger things have happened ) they go to 50 cents he would lose 20 K odd, so best for everyone to have there own limits and a stop loss to limit the losses in case of the unexpected .

[thestg]

Air has dropped 10% three times since March. If you sell after a 10% drop you will lose your $3000 plus the opportunity to make several times that.

Thanks Fred, My Stop Loss works on closing price. If below I sell first thing at the next days opening (Gives a slight chance of recovery). Looking back I see close prices at $2.35 9th Oct & $2.37 8th December 2014 so have adjusted my Stop Loss price to $2.33 10.92% so max loss will be $3540.48. Last time it was below $2.33 was 26 Nov 2014. I hope it won't get that low with the latest performance. If it does then I'll be out with a loss. NOTE I previously had 1130 shares in AIR before this purchase so the above sell figures include my total holdings of 12390 shares.

[skid]

Best of luck thestg ,but gotta say ,it sounds scary when it involves borrowed money.
My guess is that the main posters have assets enough to ride out fluctuations.
2.33 is more than a 11% drop from todays price to Im assuming you have bought in cheaper-

Dont forget to keep tabs on outside markets as well

[Hoop]

I first started investing in the share market in 1995 when I bought Infratil for 91 cents. I was then told the best way to invest was managed funds, so I invested in Money Managers First Step. By approx. 2008 this investment had lost me $10,000. I went back to the share market & done well for a while. I bought lots of shares in SLG & SEA with no stop loss set & sold these earlier this year at another loss of $10,000.
Just over 2 years ago I took early retirement & dedicated 4 hours each morning to studying the share market. I have developed spreadsheets to track investments & have a Stop-Loss in place to show where things are not going right.

At this point I would like to thank Roger for sharing his advice and knowledge which has helped me very much.
I am very excited how AIR is performing & wanted to get in on the action.

With not much funds I contacted my bank & they gave me an interest only mortgage of $30,000 at 5.59 percent until 2020.
This is weekly payments of $32.25.

Yesterday I purchased 11260 shares at $2.66. My stop loss (Max I am prepared to lose is $3000 (10 percent). Time is period 5 years (Length of loan).
My calculations are that if the dividends stay the same as last year (16.4c/s) I will receive $1846.64 and my mortgage repayments will be $1677.00 – so a gain of $169.64 or 0.54 percent.
I expect the dividends to be much better & with a possible share price of over $4.00 by 2020
At a share price of $4.00 in 2020 I should have a minimum profit of $15,088 of 50.3 percent (10 percent annualised)

I wish everyone the best with their AIR investment.

Just a caution Thestg......I'm relieved to see you have a stop loss discipline in place...very important to adhere to your discipline especially so with any stopped out cyclicals as they are dangerous stocks to own..but cyclicals are volatile..so expect to be in and out often with your 10% limit...Your can't afford to rise that 10% neither...That's why many longer term investors don't ever touch cyclicals...
Using long term investing,, cyclicals are your best friend one minute your worst enemy (nightmare) the next...
AIR is a cyclical stock

Disc: Have AIR stocks

[winner69]

Thanks Fred, My Stop Loss works on closing price. If below I sell first thing at the next days opening (Gives a slight chance of recovery). Looking back I see close prices at $2.35 9th Oct & $2.37 8th December 2014 so have adjusted my Stop Loss price to $2.33 10.92% so max loss will be $3540.48. Last time it was below $2.33 was 26 Nov 2014. I hope it won't get that low with the latest performance. If it does then I'll be out with a loss. NOTE I previously had 1130 shares in AIR before this purchase so the above sell figures include my total holdings of 12390 shares.

Are you going to keep changing the number as the share price keeps going up - ie lock in profits when the price eventually falls (ie a trailing stop loss)

As Mr P said = the market giveth but the market also taketh away

[Bjauck]

...With not much funds I contacted my bank & they gave me an interest only mortgage of $30,000 at 5.59 percent until 2020....

I am old enough to remember the mid 1980's and the tales of many people borrowing money to invest on the share market. FOMO played its part. 1987 came and the tales of woe started. Perhaps many of those investors did not apply stop losses as rigorously as you intend to. It makes me think that now is the time to sell my equities if the share market is being propped up by similar leveraging as well as QE. A $30,000 mortgage may well be small change compared with the value of your net realisable assets. Good luck. Definitely DYOR and seek independent advice.

Disc: I too got IFT early on and still hold some today. I consider that IFT itself is a type of listed managed investment fund.

[thestg]

Best of luck thestg ,but gotta say ,it sounds scary when it involves borrowed money.
My guess is that the main posters have assets enough to ride out fluctuations.
2.33 is more than a 11% drop from todays price to Im assuming you have bought in cheaper-

Dont forget to keep tabs on outside markets as well

Thanks Skid.
Yep bought in with average price slightly below $2.60. Also my loan is where you only pay interest on the balance of the account, so as dividends accumulate the interest is reduced.

[thestg]

Yes Winner, I have built a trailing stop loss into my spreadsheet. It follows the rising price at a slightly lower percentage than the price rises. When/If it gets to the price that I bought in at, it highlights the share to show me that I am now in profit with my trailing stop loss. So far this year I have achieved that with 3 shares ATM, EBO & SCL.

[winner69]

AIR is a cyclical stock

Disc: Have AIR stocks

OMG Hoop - this 'AIR is a cyclical stock' and another comment posted by somebody else saying 'air travel is largely commodified, and consumers are price sensitive.' will outrage some on this thread. Even worse I posted a comment that airlines are obsessed with profits

They might even ask us to refrain from posting on this thread

[winner69]

Yes Winner, I have built a trailing stop loss into my spreadsheet. It follows the rising price at a slightly lower percentage than the price rises. When/If it gets to the price that I bought in at, it highlights the share to show me that I am now in profit with my trailing stop loss. So far this year I have achieved that with 3 shares ATM, EBO & SCL.

For AIR I use a trailing stop loss based on 2 times Average True Range. Currently that is $2.52

That 2 times ATR is pretty tight to reflect inherent risks in airline shares and as Hoop says it a cyclical stock. It also reflects that I bought at a time with a fair amount of hype around AIR and as we all know anything can happen when this is the case.

Hopefully his will be a long term trade ......if it starts well I probably be more generous with the stop less.

[banter]

Here's a list of the three biggest corrections (dividend adjusted prices) over the past 18 months in AIR.
Dividend adjusted prices exaggerate the falls,.

The corrections are given as a percentage, and ATR measured over the 50 days prior to the correction.
I held throughout.



Hi date
hi pr
Lowdate
Low pr
Fall%
ATR-C
ATR-C-M


23/06/14
1.960
28/07/14
1.555
20.7%
1.43%
14.48


08/09/14
1.935
14/10/14
1.625
16.0%
1.24%
12.91


29/05/15
2.895
18/06/15
2.300
20.6%
1.32%
15.58

[banter]

For 2016, I took AIR's figures for 2015, and added 10% for inherent growth, added fuel savings ($363m), subtracted currency losses ($70m), took off 28% tax from the fuel and currency adjustments, and added $27m, for Virgin to break even.

For 2017 I assumed fuel cost and the exchange rates remained the same as those used in AIR's 2016 projections.
And added another 10% for inherent growth. VA to break even again.

Those assumptions give the following:




15a
16
17


npat ul 1)
357
623
459


eps ul
0.319
0.556
0.410


po %
50%
50%
50%


gdps
0.222
0.388
0.286


gy%
8.9%
15.6%
11.5%




As to historic PE - since 2007 the median annual low PE is 8.4; median annual high is 12.7.
Mid point is 10.6
Morningstar figures used.

If those figures are right, it would seem reasonable for the market to 'look through' the abnormally high 2016 profit and use some estimate of 2017 profit to value AIR - with due allowance for a special div of say 15cps in 2016.

A PE of 10 on the 2017 eps would give $4.10 in 2017.
Or say $3.38 now (discount $4.10 at 10% for two years), plus 15c = $3.53.

Thinking more about 2017 profit - as others have said, AIR might well lock in 2016 fuel cost and exchange rates for 2017, by hedging.

After that - those two things have as much chance of going up as going down - so the mid case could be to use today's values for both.

Doing that gives this:




15a
16
17



npat ul 1)
357

623.6

686



eps ul
0.319
0.556
0.612


po %
50%
50%
50%


gdps
0.22

0.388

0.427


gy%
8.3%
14.5%
16.0%




PE 10 as above gives values in 2016 of 5.56, and 6.12 in 2017
Virgin again assumed to break even both years.

[Beagle]

OMG Hoop - this 'AIR is a cyclical stock' and another comment posted by somebody else saying 'air travel is largely commodified, and consumers are price sensitive.' will outrage some on this thread. Even worse I posted a comment that airlines are obsessed with profits

They might even ask us to refrain from posting on this thread

Okay I'll have a little nibble at that. People keep saying its a cyclical stock and history suggests it is BUT how is it that for about a year now its been well known that Dairy prices were going to come under severe pressure and they did getting to their lowest level in about 10 year's early in winter. This caused consumer and business confidence to hit multi year low's, just this week we had the NZIER saying business confidence was at a four year low and earlier in the month we had another survey saying consumer confidence was at a multi year low. This week we also has the IMF warning we are on the brink of a world-wide recession and consumer and business sentiment has been poor for the vast majority of 2015. Somehow the brokers consider all of the above to be the peak of the cycle and yet throughout all this time aircraft loadings have been very strong at circa 83% all year and most of last year. I have been saying for quite a while now that with low oil and 83% aircraft loads the cash register at AIR is ringing like crazy and now we have confirmation of this from the company this week.

Against this backdrop of low confidence both here and amongst almost all of our trading partners people are still spending money with AIR to such an extent that it is quite plausible that they will get close to doubling last year's profit, itself an all time record !

How does one explain this strong demand in such sustained soft economic conditions ? Have we seen a shift to a point where people think nothing of taking a flight to Queenstown or Australia seeing as often it costs little more than filling up the gas tank of a decent sized car ? In real inflation adjusted terms is Air travel now so relatively cheap demand becomes almost completely inelastic irrespective of economic conditions other than perhaps another GFC ?, (this assumes one thinks we're out of the first GFC).

Each day I get the daily deals on www.grabaseat.co.nz. Today's one that tempted me was $49 Auckland to Nelson...you can hardly buy a decent dinner and drinks for that. Maybe 99% of their customers don't care what the GDT auction price is or that the China economy is soft or that Greece can't pay its bills or that Putin is a ........ or insert whatever other N.Z. or global worry you care to mention. T.C and I had a little chat about the cash flow of the company after the meeting. Everyone knows they have $2.6b for new aircraft capex over the next 4 years, not everyone knows this will be an absolute doddle of a walk in the park for them and their will be cash to burn if oil stays at a moderate level... (read special dividend(s), share buy-backs or both).

$1.1 billion in cash flow last year. Nearly $1 a share. Wonder what this year's cash flow will be ?

Nice analysis Banter. Virgin is forecast to be profitable in FY16 and more so in FY17

thestg Welcome to the forum and welcome aboard as a shareholder. Dividends will easily cover your interest payments so I think you're well positioned.

[couta1]

Now that your an Air shareholder winner(Congrats) you will be able to put your wooden spoons to good use and bake a nice cake and decorate it with toy planes:cool: PS-I see Air was just awarded longhaul airline of the year.

[Poet]

Damm I checked my e.mail inbox for the invite from Chris Luxon and all I found was yet another contract note for another 10,000 AIR shares...how disappointing :D

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/6...ity-One-lounge (http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/68839546/Air-New-Zealand-offers-secret-invite-only-Elite-Priority-One-lounge)

Would seem to me that the company (and shareholders) would benefit by extending these invitations to their larger shareholders - an incentive to hold the shares rather than sell maybe, might be particularly attractive amongst the institutional holders where it isn't their own money they have invested.

[winner69]

Okay I'll have a little nibble at that. People keep saying its a cyclical stock and history suggests it is BUT how is it that for about a year now its been well known that Dairy prices were going to come under severe pressure and they did getting to their lowest level in about 10 year's early in winter. This caused consumer and business confidence to hit multi year low's, just this week we had the NZIER saying business confidence was at a four year low and earlier in the month we had another survey saying consumer confidence was at a multi year low. This week we also has the IMF warning we are on the brink of a world-wide recession and consumer and business sentiment has been poor for the vast majority of 2015. Somehow the brokers consider all of the above to be the peak of the cycle and yet throughout all this time aircraft loadings have been very strong at circa 83% all year and most of last year. I have been saying for quite a while now that with low oil and 83% aircraft loads the cash register at AIR is ringing like crazy and now we have confirmation of this from the company this week.

Against this backdrop of low confidence both here and amongst almost all of our trading partners people are still spending money with AIR to such an extent that it is quite plausible that they will get close to doubling last year's profit, itself an all time record !

How does one explain this strong demand in such sustained soft economic conditions ? Have we seen a shift to a point where people think nothing of taking a flight to Queenstown or Australia seeing as often it costs little more than filling up the gas tank of a decent sized car ? In real inflation adjusted terms is Air travel now so relatively cheap demand becomes almost completely inelastic irrespective of economic conditions other than perhaps another GFC ?, (this assumes one thinks we're out of the first GFC).

Each day I get the daily deals on www.grabaseat.co.nz. Today's one that tempted me was $49 Auckland to Nelson...you can hardly buy a decent dinner and drinks for that. Maybe 99% of their customers don't care what the GDT auction price is or that the China economy is soft or that Greece can't pay its bills or that Putin is a ........ or insert whatever other N.Z. or global worry you care to mention. T.C and I had a little chat about the cash flow of the company after the meeting. Everyone knows they have $2.6b for new aircraft capex over the next 4 years, not everyone knows this will be an absolute doddle of a walk in the park for them and their will be cash to burn if oil stays at a moderate level... (read special dividend(s), share buy-backs or both).

$1.1 billion in cash flow last year. Nearly $1 a share. Wonder what this year's cash flow will be ?

Nice analysis Banter. Virgin is forecast to be profitable in FY16 and more so in FY17

thestg Welcome to the forum and welcome aboard as a shareholder. Dividends will easily cover your interest payments so I think you're well positioned.

I thought you, me, Luxon et al agreed the other day that economic conditions have little impact on demand for air travel.

The so called 'cyclical' nature of airline stocks is because of price of oil / currency impacts on earnings (not demand)

As an aside the NZ economy is chugging along quite nicely methinks

[winner69]

Here's a list of the three biggest corrections (dividend adjusted prices) over the past 18 months in AIR.
Dividend adjusted prices exaggerate the falls,.

The corrections are given as a percentage, and ATR measured over the 50 days prior to the correction.
I held throughout.



Hi date
hi pr
Lowdate
Low pr
Fall%
ATR-C
ATR-C-M


23/06/14
1.960
28/07/14
1.555
20.7%
1.43%
14.48


08/09/14
1.935
14/10/14
1.625
16.0%
1.24%
12.91


29/05/15
2.895
18/06/15
2.300
20.6%
1.32%
15.58



Trailing stop losses based on ATR would have locked in good gains in all those instances. Short to medium traders keen on the stock would have had had several re entry levels as well.

If dividend adjusted prices exaggerate the falls isn't there a danger in using them -see Hoops comments earlier

[skid]

Okay I'll have a little nibble at that. People keep saying its a cyclical stock and history suggests it is BUT how is it that for about a year now its been well known that Dairy prices were going to come under severe pressure and they did getting to their lowest level in about 10 year's early in winter. This caused consumer and business confidence to hit multi year low's, just this week we had the NZIER saying business confidence was at a four year low and earlier in the month we had another survey saying consumer confidence was at a multi year low. This week we also has the IMF warning we are on the brink of a world-wide recession and consumer and business sentiment has been poor for the vast majority of 2015. Somehow the brokers consider all of the above to be the peak of the cycle and yet throughout all this time aircraft loadings have been very strong at circa 83% all year and most of last year. I have been saying for quite a while now that with low oil and 83% aircraft loads the cash register at AIR is ringing like crazy and now we have confirmation of this from the company this week.

Against this backdrop of low confidence both here and amongst almost all of our trading partners people are still spending money with AIR to such an extent that it is quite plausible that they will get close to doubling last year's profit, itself an all time record !

How does one explain this strong demand in such sustained soft economic conditions ? Have we seen a shift to a point where people think nothing of taking a flight to Queenstown or Australia seeing as often it costs little more than filling up the gas tank of a decent sized car ? In real inflation adjusted terms is Air travel now so relatively cheap demand becomes almost completely inelastic irrespective of economic conditions other than perhaps another GFC ?, (this assumes one thinks we're out of the first GFC).

Each day I get the daily deals on www.grabaseat.co.nz. Today's one that tempted me was $49 Auckland to Nelson...you can hardly buy a decent dinner and drinks for that. Maybe 99% of their customers don't care what the GDT auction price is or that the China economy is soft or that Greece can't pay its bills or that Putin is a ........ or insert whatever other N.Z. or global worry you care to mention. T.C and I had a little chat about the cash flow of the company after the meeting. Everyone knows they have $2.6b for new aircraft capex over the next 4 years, not everyone knows this will be an absolute doddle of a walk in the park for them and their will be cash to burn if oil stays at a moderate level... (read special dividend(s), share buy-backs or both).

$1.1 billion in cash flow last year. Nearly $1 a share. Wonder what this year's cash flow will be ?

Nice analysis Banter. Virgin is forecast to be profitable in FY16 and more so in FY17

thestg Welcome to the forum and welcome aboard as a shareholder. Dividends will easily cover your interest payments so I think you're well positioned.

Roger-
I dont think economic conditions have gotten anywhere near the point where people start cancelling vacations ,despite what economists say about dairy prices etc.
After all ,the outside markets were soaring until a short while ago.
If things do blow then ''you aint seen nothin yet'' but with the nature of an airline (with advance bookings')'it would take a while to hit the numbers.
I think there would be time for those who were not in it at all costs to exit-
I dont think using the last year as a worst case scenario is realistic--the jury is still out on big picture.
Dairy and other local commodities could skyrocket but if the economy in general takes a dive it would affect AIR. (Globalization surely must affect airlines more than average)
Those $49 flights would maybe continue,but the real long haul money makers would take a hit (a vacation abroad is far more expensive than just the air tickets)--Its the full package that would become to much.
Lack of consumer confidence doesnt mean you dont have the money to travel(how many average Joes even think about that stuff) It means you are concerned that it may lead to a situation where thats the case.
If that happened ,there would most likely be more specials--which would suit me though

[percy]

Pricing comes into the mix.
I am flying ChCh to Auckland return on 16th Feb next year for $48 for a day's book buying.
I looked to travel to Auckland on 11th November for the AWK agm,but it was going to be over $150 return,so I am not bothering.
As an aside, I wish companies would give longer notice of when their meetings will be,so I can arrange cheap flights.

[banter]

Trailing stop losses based on ATR would have locked in good gains in all those instances. Short to medium traders keen on the stock would have had had several re entry levels as well.

If dividend adjusted prices exaggerate the falls isn't there a danger in using them -see Hoops comments earlier

I haven't backtested trading with close stops on AIR. Seems you have, and 2ATR would have made money over the past two years, in AIR. Hope that continues.
My guess is a 2ATR fall has happened every month or two on average.

I'd use dividend adjusted prices for calculating ATR - otherwise there will be a spurious fall in price and increase in ATR when a share goes ex.

The ATR measured in cents is not affected by adjusting share prices for dividends. It's rendered inaccurate if no adjustment is made.
The share price percent fall and ATR % ARE affected but only (IMO) for old data - because the dividend adjustments add up.
Note though that the percent fall and ATR% are BOTH artificially raised for old data when using corrected prices. I suspect the fall-measured-in ATRs is still exaggerated.

BUT - if you're talking about a looming or just-gone dividend, then IMO it is legitimate (and preferable) to consider, for example, a $3 share cum a 20c fully imputed dividend as being a $2.80 share, when calculating percentage falls.

I understand what Hoop is saying but think that the price adjustments cause by dividends and splits should be adjusted-for, and accurately.
Otherwise there will be spurious sell signals.

I don't trust Yahoo's data; also, they fail to adjust properly for dividends that lack imputation credits. NZ50 index has the same (IMO faulty) approach.

Bottom line for me is use adjusted prices, do the adjustment manually and take 28% off any non-imputed dividend adjustments.

[winner69]

It would be interesting to study how demand held up during the GFC. I might have a good look through some old annual reports to have a look at this next week.

Was some drop in passenger numbers during GFC ....and wasn't 2011 the fiscal cliff thing

But no GFC looming is there?

NZ economy bubbling along nicely

AIR will do fine ..... they screwing passengers more and more and even if numbers fall off a bit making enough out of those still flying to make heaps ... even more than last year

[winner69]

Table was truncated

June 16 is 15,450 +8.1%

Sorry about the ommission

[Snow Leopard]

...I don't trust Yahoo's data; also, they fail to adjust properly for dividends that lack imputation credits. NZ50 index has the same (IMO faulty) approach.

Bottom line for me is use adjusted prices, do the adjustment manually and take 28% off any non-imputed dividend adjustments.

I hope that you are not simply subtracting the dividend amount from prior share prices, consider the $1 share that has paid out more than a $1 of historical dividends.

Adjusting for the lack of imputation credits is incorrect.
A 5cps dividend costs the company 5cps per share independent of whether it all goes to the shareholder directly or is split between the shareholder and the tax man.

[Tricky / Trick Questions follow]

But how do you account for the discount on Dividend Re-Investment Plans?
and
how do you account for the supplementary dividend paid to overseas shareholders?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Passenger numbers broken down long and short haul. Short haul is NZ, Trans-Tasman and Pacific.

Done for Roger to see what happened during GFC

But couldn't help noticing that long haul numbers are much the same as they were 5 years ago and less than 2007. Perception (hype) does not equal reality.

Filling in time watching Bathhurst - which is pretty boring really but quite a few kiwi fans flew AIR to go over for the weekend

[Thor]

Very interesting numbers. Do we have revenue numbers available for domestic / international spilt we can add to this?

[winner69]

Very interesting numbers. Do we have revenue numbers available for domestic / international spilt we can add to this?

Somewhere amongst the numbers - leave that to Roger

Interesting look at those Fact Sheets.

One thing I noticed that yields in 2015 (both short and long haul) much the same as a few years ago (perception doesn't equal reality). Need to do my own research.

But as long as everybody thinks things are honky dory and booming then the share price will head to 3 bucks and then 4 bucks - that's all that matters

[percy]

[QUOTE=banter;593762

I understand what Hoop is saying but think that the price adjustments cause by dividends and splits should be adjusted-for, and accurately.
Otherwise there will be spurious sell signals.

I don't trust Yahoo's data; also, they fail to adjust properly for dividends that lack imputation credits. NZ50 index has the same (IMO faulty) approach.

Bottom line for me is use adjusted prices, do the adjustment manually and take 28% off any non-imputed dividend adjustments.[/QUOTE]

I think your post raises some interesting points.NZ50 is a gross index, so it is hard to compare large dividend paying shares such as AIR,HNZ and PGW which are not adjusted for dividends..Well I don't know of any source that adjusts for divividends.So using charts comparing a share that pays no dividend, to one that pays a big dividend is a waste of time.
So do we go back two or three years and add the dividends to the sp to get a more meaningful chart?
Then are EMA's more meaningful.?

[banter]

I hope that you are not simply subtracting the dividend amount from prior share prices, consider the $1 share that has paid out more than a $1 of historical dividends.
Certainly am, and yes the corrected price can go negative. Same with historic commodities data. Apparently that's OK for backtesting purposes - moving average, Donchian, Bollinger band systems still work OK.
Am looking forward to my since-purchase THL adjusted share price going negative soon, and AIR in a couple of years.


Adjusting for the lack of imputation credits is incorrect.
A 5cps dividend costs the company 5cps per share independent of whether it all goes to the shareholder directly or is split between the shareholder and the tax man.
I guess that is true of the break-up value of the company - it is worth 5c less.

But I look at it this way.
Say the company's share price was $1. It paid a 5c unimputed dividend. I then pay tax on that dividend (let's say at 28%). I'm left with 3.6c. If, as you say, the correct ex price is 95c - then adding 3.6c gives 98.6c.
In theory, the market will price shares so that the shareholders are no better or worse off after a share goes ex.
If most shareholders pay around 30% tax, they will price that share such that when it goes ex, it is worth 3.6c less. Not 5c.

Otherwise, shareholders would be selling the company before it goes ex, to avoid the above 1.4% capital loss. And maybe buying back after.

Non-accountant logic. Fire at will.


But how do you account for the discount on Dividend Re-Investment Plans?
and
how do you account for the supplementary dividend paid to overseas shareholders?
Personally, I ignore both. The discount on DRIP is trivial - say 5% of a 3% div, taken up by 20% of shareholders.
And (as I understand it) the company gets that supplementary dividend back as a tax credit.

A final off-topic thought - the NZ50 is supposed to be a benchmark, against which NZ investors measure their performance.

No investor can match the NZ50 by copying the NZ50 because:
1) NZ50 pays no tax on non-imputed dividends - investors do.
2) Trading costs - brokerage, slippage.
3) NZ50 reinvests dividends on the day they go ex - investors must wait till the dividends are paid.

All in all I reckon the true annual benchmark is at least 2% below the NZ50's performance.

[percy]

A final off-topic thought - the NZ50 is supposed to be a benchmark, against which NZ investors measure their performance.

No investor can match the NZ50 by copying the NZ50 because:
1) NZ50 pays no tax on non-imputed dividends - investors do.
2) Trading costs - brokerage, slippage.
3) NZ50 reinvests dividends on the day they go ex - investors must wait till the dividends are paid.

All in all I reckon the true annual benchmark is at least 2% below the NZ50's performance.

So it is therefore incorrect to compare charts of AIR,HNZ or PGW with the NZ50?

[winner69]

I would never adjust for dividends. Its what I can sell them for that concerns me. I don't really care for dividends - just a bonus if they come.

And I'm told by many on this forum that more likely than not the price quickly reverts to the price before the dividend anyway.

And then some tell me the price 'includes' the dividend some weeks before it goes ex anyway - so when do you 'adjust' from?

[Beagle]

I thought you, me, Luxon et al agreed the other day that economic conditions have little impact on demand for air travel.

The so called 'cyclical' nature of airline stocks is because of price of oil / currency impacts on earnings (not demand)

As an aside the NZ economy is chugging along quite nicely methinks

No not strictly correct mate. Severely adverse economic conditions definitely affect demand. I had a quick look back through the annual reviews over the last 7 years and they definitely were affected by the GFC, much like the vast majority of other companies, no question. All previous years reports are available on their website and I recommend anyone serious about investing in AIR have a look back over the history of the company by reading the annual reviews from previous years to enhance your understanding of the airline. See http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/previous-reports

I think its a great credit to the marketing team that through a creative and proactive approach they've managed to fill the extra capacity they put on last year. The SP has come under pressure in recent months from the sort of scepticism encapsulated in the Morningstar report that Robomo provided commentary on late this week. It seems some research houses and institutions simply don't believe the company can fill the extra capacity they're putting on this year in the somewhat softer economic conditions. Perhaps consumers are just sick and tired of austerity and they will simply spend and to heck with it, latest electronic card spending data out today suggests the consumer is generally in good spirits.

The company is extremely confident about its future. The tone of the annual meeting overall was extremely bullish. People are free to listen to Morningstar if they like but I for one will take my cue in terms of expected profitability from the company itself.

[banter]

So it is therefore incorrect to compare charts of AIR,HNZ or PGW with the NZ50?
Yes - I think, like you said, you'd have to add divs to those share prices as they go ex to get a fair comparison.
NB dividend payers are discriminated-against, ironically, when it comes to selection for the NZ50.

[winner69]

No not strictly correct mate. Severely adverse economic conditions definitely affect demand. I had a quick look back through the annual reviews over the last 7 years and they definitely were affected by the GFC, much like the vast majority of other companies, no question. All previous years reports are available on their website and I recommend anyone serious about investing in AIR have a look back over the history of the company by reading the annual reviews from previous years to enhance your understanding of the airline. See http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/previous-reports

.

Passenger numbers I put up confirm that, esp when severe adverse economic conditions exist.

Wouldn't want to see another GFC soon will we. A 5% to 10% drop in revenues falling straight through to the bottom line is $250m to $500m off your $1 billion forecast - ouch

Maybe those analysts have good cause to be cautious

Doubt if another GFC like last time - if there is anything it will be a total collapse of world economic order as we know it

No need to worry - this week AIR share price will head to 3 bucks

[Beagle]

Passenger numbers I put up confirm that, esp when severe adverse economic conditions exist.

Wouldn't want to see another GFC soon will we. A 5% to 10% drop in revenues falling straight through to the bottom line is $250m to $500m off your $1 billion forecast - ouch

Maybe those analysts have good cause to be cautious

Doubt if another GFC like last time - if there is anything it will be a total collapse of world economic order as we know it

No need to worry - this week AIR share price will head to 3 bucks

Personally I don't think we're out of the first GFC by any means and central banks around the world are basically going to have to keep interest rates ultra low indefinitely to deal with the debt legacy hangover issues. IMF suggests low economic growth, (forecasting oil to still be $55 barrel in 2017) and this is the sort of environment where the oil price could very well stabilise at these lower levels for years...meanwhile all those emerging middle class consumers overseas that C.L. was talking about in the meeting who see air travel as aspirational will be keen to travel and tick good ol Nue Zeealaaand off their bucket list will come here. Maybe we have the perfect environment for Air to make super profits for several years and those conservative analysts get egg all over their faces while out bank accounts get lined with special divvy's :) I reckon some analysts see AIR's capacity growth as a bit risky. I think its a calculated risk...easy enough to pull back the frequency, (to keep the load factor up), to those new destinations if loads don't turn out to be quite as good as anticipated in the medium term but they're very bullish about early customer demand most especially out of Australia, (see Australian aviation magazine October 2015 issue, article on AIR).

Hey Couta1. Mate, you're in an elite group. Page 60 of the annual report, the top 20 shareholders own 90.61% of the shares, (Govt own 51.95%). Page 61 Only 96 shareholders own 100,000 shares or more. Take out the top 20 which except for one are all institutions or the Govt and that leaves only 77 shareholders who own more than 100,000 shares.

You should definitely come to the annual meeting next year and hit Chris Luxon up for that special behind the scenes gold elite Koru lounge thingy :)...but as I know you're a gentleman and a humble guy I bet you just fly economy like I do and probably not even a member of the regular Koru club. Well leave all that prancing around gold elite status stuff to others eh ?

[couta1]

Your right Roger just normal economy for me and no Koru club stuff neither. Happy to be overweight in this stock and feel privileged to be part of that group of 77:cool:

[iceman]

You should definitely come to the annual meeting next year and hit Chris Luxon up for that special behind the scenes gold elite Koru lounge thingy :)...but as I know you're a gentleman and a humble guy I bet you just fly economy like I do and probably not even a member of the regular Koru club. Well leave all that prancing around gold elite status stuff to others eh ?

You will never make AIR Gold Elite by flying Jetstar mate ;)

[Beagle]

You will never make AIR Gold Elite by flying Jetstar mate ;)

LOL - The only club I want to join is the truly elite one one with only 77 other members :cool: Having 100 members to that behind the scenes thing is so passé :)

[couta1]

LOL - The only club I want to join is the truly elite one one with only 77 other members :cool: Having 100 members to that behind the scenes thing is so passé :)
You'll get there mate just give any more expensive toys a miss for now, remember you can only drive one car at a time and boats are black holes you pour money into.

[skid]

Personally I don't think we're out of the first GFC by any means and central banks around the world are basically going to have to keep interest rates ultra low indefinitely to deal with the debt legacy hangover issues. IMF suggests low economic growth, (forecasting oil to still be $55 barrel in 2017) and this is the sort of environment where the oil price could very well stabilise at these lower levels for years...meanwhile all those emerging middle class consumers overseas that C.L. was talking about in the meeting who see air travel as aspirational will be keen to travel and tick good ol Nue Zeealaaand off their bucket list will come here. Maybe we have the perfect environment for Air to make super profits for several years and those conservative analysts get egg all over their faces while out bank accounts get lined with special divvy's :) I reckon some analysts see AIR's capacity growth as a bit risky. I think its a calculated risk...easy enough to pull back the frequency, (to keep the load factor up), to those new destinations if loads don't turn out to be quite as good as anticipated in the medium term but they're very bullish about early customer demand most especially out of Australia, (see Australian aviation magazine October 2015 issue, article on AIR).

Hey Couta1. Mate, you're in an elite group. Page 60 of the annual report, the top 20 shareholders own 90.61% of the shares, (Govt own 51.95%). Page 61 Only 96 shareholders own 100,000 shares or more. Take out the top 20 which except for one are all institutions or the Govt and that leaves only 77 shareholders who own more than 100,000 shares.

You should definitely come to the annual meeting next year and hit Chris Luxon up for that special behind the scenes gold elite Koru lounge thingy :)...but as I know you're a gentleman and a humble guy I bet you just fly economy like I do and probably not even a member of the regular Koru club. Well leave all that prancing around gold elite status stuff to others eh ?

Heres a few reasons why indefinite low interest rates will come back to bite us and dig us deeper into a black hole --There is a reason the Fed wants to get on with raising them,if only the economy will let them. The party cannot last forever....meanwhile more spec buying with that easy money(not using aIR as a specific example) in the end a hard landing will be inevitable if it carries on..indefinitely is not an option as sooner or later it will be taken out of their hands by the market.
Have you ever done the books for someone who trys to pay their purchases with VIsa--pay for Visa bill with Diners club...pay for Diners club with etc etc..

http://www.inflationomics.com/article.php?article=Keeping%20Interest%20Rates%20L ow

[sb9]

Have heard the full presentation of the ASM on web link over the weekend (incl your question Roger). Must say very impressive the way CL has answered all questions and overall how upbeat the management team are about future prospects!!!

We're very very well positioned :t_up:

[vin]

SP just about breaking through $2.7, keep climbing baby!

[Regi]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/4698e3d6/analysts-pick-higher-air-nz-share-price-after-airline-lifts-first-half-guidance.html (http://moneyonline.cmail20.com/t/r-l-zsalt-dljjudjlc-y/)

Well half a cent more and Goldman's 12 month target will have been reached HAHA!

[stoploss]

Can't go wrong , Govt prepared for another bailout ...... !!!

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/72863496/government-negotiates-tppa-exemption-for-transport-and-communications-ventures

[winner69]

Share price Not doing too much today is it

What's going on

Even Heartland is doing much better

[Beagle]

Rome wasn't built in a day.

[sb9]

Share price Not doing too much today is it

What's going on

Even Heartland is doing much better

This will help you feel better, think of those that bought in @2.80, 2.90 or 3.00. you're doing much better than them if you've got in recently. Hang in there....you'll be fine.

[winner69]

Rome wasn't built in a day.

and come to think of it planes don't seem to fly much faster than 10 to 20 years ago

[macduffy]

and come to think of it planes don't seem to fly much faster than 10 to 20 years ago

But air travel has got cheaper!

(Inflation - adjusted.)

[couta1]

Share price Not doing too much today is it

What's going on

Even Heartland is doing much better You must work on patience there winner, anyway a relatively low volume day so doing just fine.

[Beagle]

and come to think of it planes don't seem to fly much faster than 10 to 20 years ago

You'd better sell now mate, they're going slower :) Bring back the Concord I say ! http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/21/travel/concorde-return-to-flight/index.html?iref=obinsite Even the latest 787-9 Dreamliner has a normal cruise speed of 910 k.p.h. whereas the decades old 747 can cruise at 940 k.p.h. Its all about efficiency these days mate.

[Snow Leopard]

Bring back the flying boats - flying at less than 10,000ft for hours and stopping off at the coral islands on route.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Bring back the flying boats - flying at less than 10,000ft for hours and stopping off at the coral islands on route.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

When I visited the AIR exhibition at Te Papa I read that 75 years ago when the Solent flying boat first started its nine hour service to Sydney it cost half an average persons salary for a year for the first travellers to fly to Sydney and back, say about $25,000 return in inflation adjusted real terms, (assumes average N.Z. salary is $50,000 now).
Now you can fly there and back on special for a little more than about one percent of that (plus Govt taxes). Now that's what I call progress !!

[brend]

When I visited the AIR exhibition at Te Papa I read that 75 years ago when the Solent flying boat first started its nine hour service to Sydney it cost half an average persons salary for a year for the first travellers to fly to Sydney and back, say about $25,000 return in inflation adjusted real terms, (assumes average N.Z. salary is $50,000 now).
Now you can fly there and back on special for a little more than about one percent of that (plus Govt taxes). Now that's what I call progress !!

it comes up to auckland next month.

Will have to visit.

https://www.aucklandmuseum.com/media/media-releases/2015/air-new-zealand-75-years-exhibition-lands-in-2015

[Beagle]

Mate its well worth a visit.

[sb9]

Now that we've heard the earnings update from AIR management and how bullish they're about future prospects (FY16), the question I've is "are we likely to see this Kiwi bird overtake Qantas's sp ?"

[Beagle]

Now that we've heard the earnings update from AIR management and how bullish they're about future prospects (FY16), the question I've is "are we likely to see this Kiwi bird overtake Qantas's sp ?"

Unfortunately for the time being that ship has sailed which cuts to the heart of my frustration with broker analysis. Last Year's EPS for Qan 25 cps, AIR 29 cps. This year Qan 55cps and AIR consensus is now 47 cps, (which as I mentioned earlier is far too light, I will stick with 64 cps). Keep in mind AIR's SP is greatly affected by institutions which between them and the Govt own nearly 91% of the stock and institutions are guided a lot by official analyst forecasts. Somehow, don't ask me how, consensus view is that Qantas is immune to future oil price increases and competition issues such that FY17 forecasts and beyond are generally rosy and brokers arrive at a consensus value of circa $4.40. On the other side of the Tasman, notwithstanding that we occupy a close set of airspace and have generally closely aligned economies both being commodity economies of one sort or another brokers all think AIR is coming in for major oil price and competition issues going forward, (keep in mind Virgin operate in exactly the same space as Qan). They are different airlines with different dynamics but I would have thought they both are susceptible to broadly similar competition and oil issues but apparently not according to analysts....go figure ? I reckon Craigs are closest to the mark with their $3.40 12 month price target, (after a juicy special and ordinary final divvy) :)

[couta1]

Opens at $2.74, the pennies are starting to drop:cool:

[vin]

Get amongst it!

[Felonius]

Morning Couta.
Where do you get that info from ?
The websites I use, eg. NZX and Stocknessmonster, are subject to a 20 minute delay.

[Beagle]

Still a very cheap stock and if my analysis is right at current year EPS of 64 cps , (I see upside and downside risk to that) then it currently trades on a FY 16 PE of an incredible 4.28 !!

History tells me you can make a fortune buying stocks on a super low PE like that. What if ?...last time they predicted the operating profit to go up by 100%, (2012 forecast for 2013) it went up 174% !!

What if oil stays low for a protracted period of time and the airline starts earning consistent EPS of 60-70 cps ? Last year they called the all new Dreamliner a game-changer and by the end of this month for a relatively small airline they'll have six of these super efficient new birds flying :t_up:

[couta1]

Morning Couta.
Where do you get that info from ?
The websites I use, eg. NZX and Stocknessmonster, are subject to a 20 minute delay.
Off the live depth chart with ANZ securities, you must have done a trade in the previous 3 months to be able to view it.

[Felonius]

Thanks Couta. I think you need to be a client to access that info.

That is a great start to today's trading. Probably not a good idea to talk price movements
on these sites as it makes them a boring read. Chrs.

[sb9]

Could be the best Analysts that Roger mentioned who were on holiday are back on deck this week and have upgraded their numbers? what do you reckon Roger?

[Beagle]

Could be the best Analysts that Roger mentioned who were on holiday are back on deck this week and have upgraded their numbers? what do you reckon Roger?

Craigs upgraded late last week to $3.40 so what I heard second hand perhaps wasn't strictly bang on the money. Oil price drop overnight might have something to do with today's strong start. As suggested earlier, we could be in a sweet spot for oil for years, or maybe not. The currency strengthened materially last week which I think on balance is better for AIR. All the analysts predict the oil price tailwind to unwind in FY17 and especially FY18 so there's no downside to their consensus valuation of about $3 if it does exactly that but what if they're wrong ? Most of the risk appears to be strongly to the upside.

[Kelvin]

It appears that American Airlines could announce their Auckland route sooner than expected - http://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com/2015/10/11/american-airlines-about-to-announce-service-to-new-zealand/

I previously thought they would announce this late-2015 - early-2016 but now we could see an announcement of this new competition in a matter of weeks rather than months.:(

[Teeps]

Hi to all members, I am new to ShareTrader but have actively been following you guys for many months. Just want to say thanks to the likes of Roger, Winner and Couta etc - i have been a fan of Air New Zealand for years and all of your insightful comments into the business (especially in recent times) has encouraged me to invest heavily into the organisation whilst the share price kept falling from the high of $3.00 don to mid $2.30's.... during that time I loaded up and in recent times have tripled my holding following the reaction to the AGM. Thanks to Roger for your insight.

This morning I am firmly in profit and climbing.... Looking forward to the ride.
Thanks guys! Keep up the good work!

[Beagle]

You're most welcome Teeps. Welcome to the forum.

[Zaphod]

It appears that American Airlines could announce their Auckland route sooner than expected - http://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com/2015/10/11/american-airlines-about-to-announce-service-to-new-zealand/

I previously thought they would announce this late-2015 - early-2016 but now we could see an announcement of this new competition in a matter of weeks rather than months.:(

From what I have heard, there have been some discussions with AIA regarding slots for a LAX-AKL service by AA, so things are progressing.

LAX however is not a major hub for AA, so UA and AIR have a massive advantage in terms of connectivity.

[mikeybycrikey]

From what I have heard, there have been some discussions with AIA regarding slots for a LAX-AKL service by AA, so things are progressing.

LAX however is not a major hub for AA, so UA and AIR have a massive advantage in terms of connectivity.

Given that AIR announced Buenos Aires 12 months in advance and Houston about 8 months ahead of commencement, how soon could AA start flying to NZ? I guess it's going to be at least 6 months.

[Snow Leopard]

{posted 20-Sep-2004} rmbbrave, you would be a braver person than I to risk your money on Air New Zealand.


{posted 22-Sep-2004} I have said it before and I will say it again .

Playing with Air New Zealand stocks is for the brave and the foolhardy only. The risks are high and the rewards low.

It is actually worth reading the first few years of posts on this thread, you can ignore the ramblings of the Tiger if you wish.

But hopefully, maybe [I]this time it really is different.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

It is actually worth reading the first few years of posts on this thread, you can ignore the ramblings of the Tiger if you wish.

But hopefully, maybe this time it really is different.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

The share price looks like it was higher than today way back then (completely unadjusted off course ) - at least on the Findata chart

Saved yourself money and grief over last 10 years?

[winner69]

It is actually worth reading the first few years of posts on this thread, you can ignore the ramblings of the Tiger if you wish.

But hopefully, maybe this time it really is different.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Good call back then - The share price looks like it was higher than today way back then (completely unadjusted off course ) - at least on the Findata chart

Saved yourself money and grief over last 10 years?

[couta1]

It is actually worth reading the first few years of posts on this thread, you can ignore the ramblings of the Tiger if you wish.

But hopefully, maybe this time it really is different.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger On a personal level I could prove you wrong about the low rewards bit during my involvement with Air over the last couple of years.

[Beagle]

According to Craigs the average shareholder return over the last 10 years for AIR has been a compounding annual return of 12.5%. Those who have taken the ride on AIR for the long haul have done very nicely indeed. I believe gross dividends including special(s) will be at that level on average over the next few years and capital gains will be on top of that. All aboard before we depart FL275.

[couta1]

According to Craigs the average shareholder return over the last 10 years for AIR has been a compounding annual return of 12.5%. Those who have taken the ride on AIR for the long haul have done very nicely indeed. I believe gross dividends including special(s) will be at that level on average over the next few years and capital gains will be on top of that. All aboard before we depart FL275.
Yep and I don't hear the Govt complaining about their returns neither.

[banter]

It is actually worth reading the first few years of posts on this thread, you can ignore the ramblings of the Tiger if you wish.

But hopefully, maybe this time it really is different.

In August 2012, AIR NZ's annual report predicted 2013 EPS would double. On that, the share price went from 90c to $1.09 over two days and to my entry point of 1.24 a few days later.

Buyers had to ignore the entrenched herd belief that airlines are a bad investment, and the pain of paying 20% more than the price two days prior.

Some Sharetraders did (see p48). Since then they've had 42 c divs (net of 28% tax).

Take that off the purchase price of say $1.09, add back say 10c interest [$1.09*3% net interest, compounded for three years], and they have more than tripled their investment.
So far.

Lessons for me were:
1) act quickly
2) the herd is sometimes wrong.

[Snow Leopard]

According to Craigs the average shareholder return over the last 10 years for AIR has been a compounding annual return of 12.5%. Those who have taken the ride on AIR for the long haul have done very nicely indeed. I believe gross dividends including special(s) will be at that level on average over the next few years and capital gains will be on top of that. All aboard before we depart FL275.

Done a quick check and here are my calculations for 10 year annualised returns with dividends to 12-Oct:

2005-2015: 13.0%
2004-2014: 5.4%
2003-2013: -1.6%
2002-2012: -3.5%
2001-2011: 0.5%

we will ignore the
2000-2010: -14.4%
1999-2009: -17.5%
because that was different :mellow:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS:
7665

[winner69]

PT - pretty volatile returns on a year by year basis eh

But a few more years of +50% and all be honky dory and all shareholders will be happy as

No bad years coming up by the looks of it

[winner69]

Oil down again overnight

AIR to get to 280 today methinks

Punters slowly waking up ....just need to see more instos topping up so they can outperform (but hen they generally not real active investors anyway)

[Beagle]

PT - pretty volatile returns on a year by year basis eh

But a few more years of +50% and all be honky dory and all shareholders will be happy as
No bad years coming up by the looks of it

I predict a party atmosphere at next years annual meeting. Last time they predicted profit would double in 2012 it nearly tripled, (up 174% 2012 to 2013 on the back of a 100% prediction).
$496m plus 174% = $1,359m before tax...based on their conservative record of predicting profit and the fact that the other day they said they were on track to EXCEED $400m in the first half perhaps my $1,000m forecast for the full year has some upside prospects ?

[winner69]

I predict a party atmosphere at next years annual meeting. Last time they predicted profit would double in 2012 it nearly tripled, (up 174% 2012 to 2013 on the back of a 100% prediction).
$496m plus 174% = $1,359m before tax...based on their conservative record of predicting profit and the fact that the other day they said they were on track to EXCEED $400m in the first half perhaps my $1,000m forecast for the full year has some upside prospects ?

Upside prospects - definitely

Maybe you better revisit your numbers .... after all you are a conservative accountant

Maybe $4 target is a bit pessimistic - but hey winner show patience

[winner69]

Hey roger - you forgot to add that after that big increase th following year was +50% and then the following again was huge.

Looks like we alright through to 2018

[Beagle]

Craigs analyst Chris Byrne said in a research note that given the airline has consistently achieved well above guidance over the past three years when it has given guidance this early, he assumes the airline is anticipating earnings of at least 10 percent above the minimum or at least $440 million for the first half, which would be up 90 percent year on year.

Byrne also expects Virgin Australia to contribute positively to the national carrier’s earnings this year so its profit could be even higher. His revised full-year forecast for earnings before tax is $839 million, up from $738 million.

Happy with $1 Billion at this stage mate (inclusive of positive Virgin contribution). Notice that this analyst says AIR has consistently achieved well above guidance.

[sb9]

AIR to get to 280 today methinks

First it needs to get past 275 mark, seems a bit of resistance to break thro' that number atm.

[couta1]

First it needs to get past 275 mark, seems a bit of resistance to break thro' that number atm. Happening as we speak, buyers lining up for an arvo spend:cool:

[sb9]

Yeah, looking positive now 276.5

[Beagle]

Happening as we speak, buyers lining up for an arvo spend:cool:

Well mate I have scoured the market and can't find anything that's better buying than AIR in terms of its incredible value and great prospects so I've lined up and bought more today.

[Robomo]

Well mate I have scoured the market and can't find anything that's better buying than AIR in terms of its incredible value and great prospects so I've lined up and bought more today.

With you Roger, bought a heap more two days ago and already 10.5c per share better off. Way too heavy on AIR but nothing better out there at the moment although I'm pretty happy with SKL as well. Well positioned you might say!

[Beagle]

With you Roger, bought a heap more two days ago and already 10.5c per share better off. Way too heavy on AIR but nothing better out there at the moment although I'm pretty happy with SKL as well. Well positioned you might say!

Absolutely mate. I wonder if I should admit out loud that I've now quadrupled my holding since the annual meeting :)

I think the new border levy at ~ $20 seems reasonable. At the end of the day why should regular Kiwi taxpayers fund overseas tourists border costs ? Compares very favourably with the Australian Levy of $A55 and the U.K.'s levy of a whopping 71 pounds. I can't see anyone travelling long haul being put off by a mere extra $20 and as for our neighbours coming from Aussie for their ski holiday, well they might be a little less rowdy at the pub about their skiing prowess after a day on the slopes because they drink two fewer beers, would that be a bad thing :)

[banter]

.. can't find anything that's better buying than AIR...
Me either - table below shows my top 20 stocks.
They are ranked by forecast internal rate of return (tax paid) using the median market PE since 2007.
Also shown is the IRR if each stock were valued on a PE of 15.
And the extent to which the share price is below or above the forecast 2016 earnings x median market PE - i.e. what the price should be once that result's announced.

AIR is top.



Stocks

MidPtPE
IRR MPPE
IRR PE15
1 yr UV/OV
Growth%
DivYield



AIR.NZ
10.2
26%
32%
117%
10.0%
8.1%



STU.NZ
13.7
25%
26%
80%
11.0%
9.7%



TWR.NZ
10.2
23%
26%
45%
12.0%
8.7%



nzr.nz
18.2
22%
19%
216%
2.0%
8.5%



SKL.NZ
12.8
21%
23%
83%
6.0%
9.6%



awf.nz
10.4
19%
23%
18%
12.0%
10.0%



HNZ.NZ
11.5
18%
22%
18%
11.0%
8.8%



IFT.NZ
14.7
18%
18%
10%
14.0%
5.8%



FRE.NZ
15.7
17%
16%
10%
13.0%
6.6%



CNU.NZ
9.1
16%
22%
-40%
8.0%
0.0%



mel.NZ
10.7
16%
19%
14%
8.0%
8.6%



thl.nz
11.2
16%
19%
12%
10.0%
8.6%



pgw.nz
9.6
15%
20%
16%
5.0%
13.5%



hby.nz
10.5
15%
18%
17%
7.0%
12.1%



ANZ.ax
12.3
15%
18%
32%
6.5%
8.8%



ZEL.NZ
11.9
14%
17%
-28%
11.5%
5.8%



arv.nz
13.3
14%
16%
9%
11.0%
6.8%



MRP.NZ
27.7
14%
8%
34%
6.0%
9.5%



TPW.NZ
20.3
14%
10%
20%
7.5%
7.0%













Mid pt PE
Market median PE since 2007





IRR MPPE
Forecast internal rate of return next 7 years, using market median PE


IRR PE15
Forecast internal rate of return next 7 years, using PE of 15


Growth
Estimated growth factor next 7 years





Div yield
Current gross dividend yield






1 yr UV/OV - Percent undervalued or overvalued one year out - the percent a stock has to gain or lose to reach the forecast price based on eps 2016 * market median PE

[winner69]

Suppose 3 1/2 cent rise yesterday wasnt too bad

Another 2 1/2 today and $2.80

Then on to $3 by end of month for this super star.

See Delta report was good in the US overnight ....can't lose on airlines eh

[skid]

Suppose 3 1/2 cent rise yesterday wasnt too bad

Another 2 1/2 today and $2.80

Then on to $3 by end of month for this super star.

See Delta report was good in the US overnight ....can't lose on airlines eh

I hope your not superstitious :)

[iceman]

Suppose 3 1/2 cent rise yesterday wasnt too bad

Another 2 1/2 today and $2.80

Then on to $3 by end of month for this super star.

See Delta report was good in the US overnight ....can't lose on airlines eh

Be careful Winner. The wheels can easily come off in this airline business !! http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11527443

[vin]

Haha, putting the fear into him! Sell me your shares winner ^^

[winner69]

OMG - Air is on the loser's board today

[sb9]

OMG - Air is on the loser's board today

Light volume so far...don't read much into that, bargain hunters would be on the hunt soon.

[skid]

Just Roger alone is enough to boost the SP if he carries on:):)

Roger--Did you notice KWs last post on the Black Monday thread --could this be the case with AIR? ( If its already been covered apologies)

[skid]

Be careful Winner. The wheels can easily come off in this airline business !! http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11527443

I hope the engeneer who was working on the plane brought an extra set of undies!

[winner69]

Just Roger alone is enough to boost the SP if he carries on:):)

Roger--Did you notice KWs last post on the Black Monday thread --could this be the case with AIR? ( If its already been covered apologies)

Roger said the other the gvt and instos hold 91%

we could say govt plus insos plus roger hold 92% ....going on 93%

[Beagle]

Just Roger alone is enough to boost the SP if he carries on:):)

Roger--Did you notice KWs last post on the Black Monday thread --could this be the case with AIR? ( If its already been covered apologies)

There is an argument for the company to buy its own stock back especially when its trading on such a ludicrously low PE. Going off the company's own implied guidance of $1,000m for the year we get 64cps after tax, PE 4.3. Borrow say $100m at 5% = $5m cost. Invest in 36m shares at $2.77 would generate $23m in after tax earnings boosting earnings for other shareholders by $18m. In my view the board is however fairly conservative and not really looking at this sort of financial engineering. Speaking with Tony Carter after the meeting he said they really put the forecast out there quite early which was quite a forthright position to take so early in the financial year, (his view), and I gathered that this was sort of in lieu of a share buy-back, (my inference nothing specifically mentioned to that effect).

Last time they used the share buy-back provision I believe the stock was trading under the NTA. Their thinking rightly or wrongly seems to be at present that they prefer to build the airline with new more efficient aircraft than buy the stock back unless its under NTA. At this stage I am happy with what they've done with getting the early indication of FY16 profitability out there for all to see. In the most unlikely event that we see a meaningful pullback in the SP I am happy to send a brief synopsis of my buy-back theory to the company along with supporting links showing this is good governance practice.


Winner69 -we could say govt plus insos plus roger hold 92% ....going on 93%
+ Couta1 = 94% LOL

[sb9]

+ Couta1 = 94% LOL

May be 95% due to his XXXL holding ;)

[brend]

Speaking with Tony Carter after the meeting he said they really put the forecast out there quite early which was quite a forthright position to take so early in the financial year, (his view), and I gathered that this was sort of in lieu of a share buy-back, (my inference nothing specifically mentioned to that effect).

I agree with you -He said it does nothing more than send a signal to the market.

[gv1]

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:t_up::t_up::t_up::t_up:
+ Couta1 = 94% LOL[/QUOTE]

[winner69]

Share buybacks are often motivated by senior management wanting to secure / increase bonuses. Shareholders generally not even considered.

Dot think Luxon and his team need that help at the moment ...making zillions already

[skid]

There is an argument for the company to buy its own stock back especially when its trading on such a ludicrously low PE. Going off the company's own implied guidance of $1,000m for the year we get 64cps after tax, PE 4.3. Borrow say $100m at 5% = $5m cost. Invest in 36m shares at $2.77 would generate $23m in after tax earnings boosting earnings for other shareholders by $18m. In my view the board is however fairly conservative and not really looking at this sort of financial engineering. Speaking with Tony Carter after the meeting he said they really put the forecast out there quite early which was quite a forthright position to take so early in the financial year, (his view), and I gathered that this was sort of in lieu of a share buy-back, (my inference nothing specifically mentioned to that effect).

Last time they used the share buy-back provision I believe the stock was trading under the NTA. Their thinking rightly or wrongly seems to be at present that they prefer to build the airline with new more efficient aircraft than buy the stock back unless its under NTA. At this stage I am happy with what they've done with getting the early indication of FY16 profitability out there for all to see. In the most unlikely event that we see a meaningful pullback in the SP I am happy to send a brief synopsis of my buy-back theory to the company along with supporting links showing this is good governance practice.


+ Couta1 = 94% LOL

It was the bringing forward of tax credits to boost earnings I was referring to--Is there a way to tell if this is happening?

[Beagle]

It was the bringing forward of tax credits to boost earnings I was referring to--Is there a way to tell if this is happening?
Financials look very clean and tidy to me after a fairly through review. The board are highly experienced, Tony Carter arguably the most respected Chairman in N.Z. Jan Dawson deputy chair won the coveted Institute of Chartered accountants accountant of the year award in 2011, is a fellow of the institute and other directors credentials are outlined in more detail on pages 50 and 51 of the annual report.
Chris Luxon is earning his stripes and will be regarded as one of N.Z.'s best ever CEO's in due course, (if not already).
You'd be hard pressed to find a better company or one better managed or governed. I have the upmost confidence in the board and management. Rob McDonald CFO is also very well respected in the profession.

[sb9]

OMG - Air is on the loser's board today

There we've it, back up 0.05c now. Might reach your 280 target I think.

[sb9]

Financials look very clean and tidy to me.

Concur with you, doubt if company like AIR would adopt any dubious accounting practices.

[Beagle]

Consumer confidence improving nicely
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/ea6bb236/nz-consumer-confidence-picks-up-aided-by-improving-dairy-outlook-low-interest-rates.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ+consumer+confidence+picks+up+aided +by+improving+dairy+outlook+low+interest+rates&utm_content=NZ+consumer+confidence+picks+up+aided+ by+improving+dairy+outlook+low+interest+rates+CID_ 92276e8c6d05ff6a7c71216555baf672&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticleea6bb236nz-consumer-confidence-picks-up-aided-by-improving-dairy-outlook-low-interest-rateshtml

[winner69]

Consumer confidence improving nicely
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/ea6bb236/nz-consumer-confidence-picks-up-aided-by-improving-dairy-outlook-low-interest-rates.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ+consumer+confidence+picks+up+aided +by+improving+dairy+outlook+low+interest+rates&utm_content=NZ+consumer+confidence+picks+up+aided+ by+improving+dairy+outlook+low+interest+rates+CID_ 92276e8c6d05ff6a7c71216555baf672&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticleea6bb236nz-consumer-confidence-picks-up-aided-by-improving-dairy-outlook-low-interest-rateshtml







You were always too down and out on the NZ economy

Nothing's changed - economy still purring along nicely ...maybe even 3% GDP growth early next year. None of your recession stuff.

[winner69]

Financials look very clean and tidy to me after a fairly through review. The board are highly experienced, Tony Carter arguably the most respected Chairman in N.Z. Jan Dawson deputy chair won the coveted Institute of Chartered accountants accountant of the year award in 2011, is a fellow of the institute and other directors credentials are outlined in more detail on pages 50 and 51 of the annual report.
Chris Luxon is earning his stripes and will be regarded as one of N.Z.'s best ever CEO's in due course, (if not already).
You'd be hard pressed to find a better company or one better managed or governed. I have the upmost confidence in the board and management. Rob McDonald CFO is also very well respected in the profession.

Financials so clean I won't even bother run Beneish M-score over them

And yes, Luxon's halo is sure shining bright at the moment

[Beagle]

You were always too down and out on the NZ economy

Nothing's changed - economy still purring along nicely ...maybe even 3% GDP growth early next year. None of your recession stuff.

Nothing like cheap money to stimulate things along nicely is there mate as well as record new migrants, (60,000 from memory) ! Can borrow for 2 years fixed at 4.39%...been a bean counter for a very long time and can't remember the last time I saw that, maybe never seen it before in my lifetime ? We now have FL280...FL290 next week and FL300 by end of the month eh. Keep steadily gaining altitude after that too. Strap yourself in for the best long haul flight experience of your life mate.

[vin]

$2.795.. Pushing it!

[winner69]

Nothing like cheap money to stimulate things along nicely is there mate as well as record new migrants, (60,000 from memory) ! Can borrow for 2 years fixed at 4.39%...been a bean counter for a very long time and can't remember the last time I saw that, maybe never seen it before in my lifetime ? We now have FL280...FL290 next week and FL300 by end of the month eh :)

Talkin of migrants I believe there are several thousand kiwis in Australia detention centres waiting to come home

Hope they not put on that aussie airline, after all coming back to their homeland

[sb9]

Talkin of migrants I believe there are several thousand kiwis in Australia detention centres waiting to come home

Hope they not put on that aussie airline, after all coming back to their homeland

Classic, love it.

BTW, smashed thro 282 now next stop 300?

[skid]

There is an argument for the company to buy its own stock back especially when its trading on such a ludicrously low PE. Going off the company's own implied guidance of $1,000m for the year we get 64cps after tax, PE 4.3. Borrow say $100m at 5% = $5m cost. Invest in 36m shares at $2.77 would generate $23m in after tax earnings boosting earnings for other shareholders by $18m. In my view the board is however fairly conservative and not really looking at this sort of financial engineering. Speaking with Tony Carter after the meeting he said they really put the forecast out there quite early which was quite a forthright position to take so early in the financial year, (his view), and I gathered that this was sort of in lieu of a share buy-back, (my inference nothing specifically mentioned to that effect).

Last time they used the share buy-back provision I believe the stock was trading under the NTA. Their thinking rightly or wrongly seems to be at present that they prefer to build the airline with new more efficient aircraft than buy the stock back unless its under NTA. At this stage I am happy with what they've done with getting the early indication of FY16 profitability out there for all to see. In the most unlikely event that we see a meaningful pullback in the SP I am happy to send a brief synopsis of my buy-back theory to the company along with supporting links showing this is good governance practice.


+ Couta1 = 94% LOL

It was the bringing forward of tax credits to boost earnings I was referring to--Is there a way to tell if this is happening?

[winner69]

It was the bringing forward of tax credits to boost earnings I was referring to--Is there a way to tell if this is happening?


Read Note 3 of the Annual Financial Statements

Key points-

1) AIR tax for year slightly more than corporate rate of 28%

2) Minimal movements in deferred tax accounts which one might expect

3) AIR don't have any tax losses carried forward to do anything with

My conclusion - all kosha as they say

[h2so4]

Classic, love it.

BTW, smashed thro 282 now next stop 300?

....and I was starting to get nervous with winner on board.

[Beagle]

Read Note 3 of the Annual Financial Statements

Key points-

1) AIR tax for year slightly more than corporate rate of 28%

2) Minimal movements in deferred tax accounts which one might expect

3) AIR don't have any tax losses carried forward to do anything with

My conclusion - all kosha as they say

Bang on the money mate. Note 14 at the foot of page 21 is also very interesting. AIR is one of only a small handful of international airlines with an investment grade rating, (I believe C.L. mentioned there were only 7) and got a credit rating upgrade this year. As a result they can lease aircraft at an incredibly low rate in the international markets. Fixed interest rates on those leases ranged from 0.7% - 3.4%. Expensive debt isn't it :D

[winner69]

Bang on the money mate. Note 14 at the foot of page 21 is also very interesting. AIR is one of only a small handful of international airlines with an investment grade rating, (I believe C.L. mentioned there were only 7) and got a credit rating upgrade this year. As a result they can lease aircraft at an incredibly low rate in the international markets. Fixed interest rates on those leases ranged from 0.7% - 3.4%. Expensive debt isn't it :D

I see they have $150m of bonds which they paying 6.9% on. Mature November next year. Prob pay them out?

Indicative of their strong credit rating is market price is 3.9%. Better of buying the shares eh - just as safe

[Beagle]

I see they have $150m of bonds which they paying 6.9% on. Mature November next year. Prob pay them out?

Indicative of their strong credit rating is market price is 3.9%. Better of buying the shares eh - just as safe

Yep. They'll have so much cash flow this year I reckon they just write a cheque in due course and pay those bondholders out and save $10.35m a year in interest costs.
I'm forecasting an average annual gross dividend rate of 12% inclusive of special dividend(s) for the next few years so buying the shares compared to the bonds is a no brainier as far as I'm concerned.

[winner69]

I was going to mention that $10m but thought you would like to tell us how much

Cash keeps rolling in eh

[Zaphod]

Concur with you, doubt if company like AIR would adopt any dubious accounting practices.

While I agree, I have learned over the years to be very cautious.

I too would not have expected the respected CFO a large corporate I worked for many years ago to be downloading lewd images onto his workstation. People never stop surprising me.

[ddrone]

While I agree, I have learned over the years to be very cautious.

I too would not have expected the respected CFO a large corporate I worked for many years ago to be downloading lewd images onto his workstation. People never stop surprising me.

Great test of work performance that. Guess you wouldn't trust anyone employed in Colorado either.

[Beagle]

I was going to mention that $10m but thought you would like to tell us how much

Cash keeps rolling in eh

Sure does mate and this year's capex is lower than last year. Something not a lot of people know is the new Dreamliner's require no heavy maintenance for the first nine year's of their life. You could say they're the perfect cash cow...errr, should that be cash bird. At the 2014 annual meeting C.L. said they'd built the airline with its young, (and getting younger), and efficient aircraft fleet to be profitable at $120 barrel oil...its just "a little" below that :) Last financial year they had three of these new aircraft for most of the year and this year six so with the new forecast at this year's meeting shareholders are starting to get an inkling into the cash flow benefits of this new aircraft...six more to come with another six options on top of that !

[winner69]

Yep. They'll have so much cash flow this year I reckon they just write a cheque in due course and pay those bondholders out and save $10.35m a year in interest costs.
I'm forecasting an average annual gross dividend rate of 12% inclusive of special dividend(s) for the next few years so buying the shares compared to the bonds is a no brainier as far as I'm concerned.

Govt bonds at ~3% proxy for country risk

AIR bonds at 3.9% implies company risk of ~1%

Implied Equity Risk Premium in excess of 8%. Far too high

Just highlights how undervalued AIR is on projected dividends

Could say half price at the moment?

[Beagle]

Govt bonds at ~3% proxy for country risk

AIR bonds at 3.9% implies company risk of ~1%

Implied Equity Risk Premium in excess of 8%. Far too high

Just highlights how undervalued AIR is on projected dividends

Could say half price at the moment?

No argument from me mate. I'm on record with the (outrageous as it may sound) prediction that AIR is a $5+ stock in a few years and with gross divvies incl special(s) we're being paid extremely handsomely to wait.
When you get high growth, high dividends, an exciting and interesting industry and the highest standards of management and governance you get something you rarely see in life, an excited accountant :)

Couta1 - mate you've gone quiet. You on holiday enjoying your profits ? I might shout myself the afternoon off. I think I've earned it.

[Poet]

Just back from a trip to Europe. Used Air NZ and star alliance partners Virgin Atlantic, BA, Air Canada, and Portugese National Carrier (whose name escapes me)

For what it's worth, my impressions..

Overall I didn't think the Air NZ Service and Product particularly stood out. I'd say adequate rather than exceptional - the new Lounge at Tom Bradley in LA is very nice, although it is a star alliance lounge rather than an Air NZ one. All of the Air NZ long haul flights seemed to be full as far as I could see, although was a bit disappointed that the LA to Auckland sector NZ5 was still operating on a 777-200 rather than 300 and the plane seemed pretty tired fitout wise, the entertainment system was out of the arc when compared with the 777-300 ones

Anyway, I'm still holding and very pleased with the share price and dividends that are flowing - just think that AIR needs to lift its game a bit if it wants to continue to charge premium fares.

[winner69]

Just back from a trip to Europe. Used Air NZ and star alliance partners Virgin Atlantic, BA, Air Canada, and Portugese National Carrier (whose name escapes me)

For what it's worth, my impressions..

Overall I didn't think the Air NZ Service and Product particularly stood out. I'd say adequate rather than exceptional - the new Lounge at Tom Bradley in LA is very nice, although it is a star alliance lounge rather than an Air NZ one. All of the Air NZ long haul flights seemed to be full as far as I could see, although was a bit disappointed that the LA to Auckland sector NZ5 was still operating on a 777-200 rather than 300 and the plane seemed pretty tired fitout wise, the entertainment system was out of the arc when compared with the 777-300 ones

Anyway, I'm still holding and very pleased with the share price and dividends that are flowing - just think that AIR needs to lift its game a bit if it wants to continue to charge premium fares.

Poet, comments almost mirror my recent experiences

Had fun on a dinger of a 777-200. Creaky old hing and entertainment system slightly munted but best bit was pissing of the guy next to me when my overhead light brightly lit up his seat and left me in the dark. Did it a few times.

Shareholders shouldn't worry. AIR doing a good job in squeezing every dollar out of every passenger with a careful balance between customer experience and cost efficiencies.

It's all about perception ....perception AIR brillant and better than most, reality not te case.

But as long as the hye and marketing does its thing shareholders will be duly rewarded

[Beagle]

I think you guys were a little unlucky getting some of the last flights on the 777-200's before they're refurbished. C.L. mentioned at the recent annual meeting that the refurbishment programme on those planes would be complete by December 2015. All planes across the international fleet are being fitted out to the current modern standard so the customer has a consistent quality experience. Notice I didn't say a gold standard experience as really ten abreast on a 777 is a pretty tight fit in terms of shoulder space. The seating has been designed for optimum efficiency and a reasonable standard of comfort. The accountant and shareholder in me is very pleased with how efficiently they're kitting out their planes.
Unfortunately the tighter seating standards are becoming the norm right across the industry. Best you can hope for is the bigger windows, lower cabin altitude and fancy lighting of the new Dreamliner to give the illusion of space and comfort or ante-up for business class.

[freddagg]

[QUOTE=Roger;594343]No argument from me mate. I'm on record with the (outrageous as it may sound) prediction that AIR is a $5+ stock in a few years and with gross divvies incl special(s) we're being paid extremely handsomely to wait.

Doesn't sound outrageous to me Roger. It has nearly tripled in value in the last 3 years and its medium term future looks fantastic.

[Beagle]

Doesn't sound outrageous to me Roger. It has nearly tripled in value in the last 3 years and its medium term future looks fantastic.

Well said mate.

[janner]

I think you guys were a little unlucky getting some of the last flights on the 777-200's before they're refurbished. C.L. mentioned at the recent annual meeting that the refurbishment programme on those planes would be complete by December 2015. All planes across the international fleet are being fitted out to the current modern standard so the customer has a consistent quality experience. Notice I didn't say a gold standard experience as really ten abreast on a 777 is a pretty tight fit in terms of shoulder space. The seating has been designed for optimum efficiency and a reasonable standard of comfort. The accountant and shareholder in me is very pleased with how efficiently they're kitting out their planes.
Unfortunately the tighter seating standards are becoming the norm right across the industry. Best you can hope for is the bigger windows, lower cabin altitude and fancy lighting of the new Dreamliner to give the illusion of space and comfort or ante-up for business class.

Can only repeat my experience of a few months ago..

Outward to Tokyo.. Less than half full

Inward a month later .. Approx half full..

Great service.. Two different aircraft..

With more competition on the horizon..

Not convinced ..

Disc. Not a holder..

[Beagle]

Aircraft loadings right across the fleet have consistently averaged in the low 80% range, month in and month out, including the months you travelled this year. This has been confirmed by the company's monthly operating stat's released to the NZX. Naturally there will be the odd flight here and there that may be short of the average and some that are well over the average and / or fully booked. Good to hear you enjoyed good service and thanks for choosing to fly with AIR N.Z.

The company is extremely bullish about its current year financial performance and quite clearly they're best positioned to be well aware of the most recent quarter's financial performance to 30 September 2015 and current forward bookings. With increasing consumer confidence I an very confident that shareholders and their airline are extremely well positioned :t_up:

Hope you all enjoyed the strong SP uplift this week folks 15.5 cents. Don't spend it all at once :)

[skid]

I think you guys were a little unlucky getting some of the last flights on the 777-200's before they're refurbished. C.L. mentioned at the recent annual meeting that the refurbishment programme on those planes would be complete by December 2015. All planes across the international fleet are being fitted out to the current modern standard so the customer has a consistent quality experience. Notice I didn't say a gold standard experience as really ten abreast on a 777 is a pretty tight fit in terms of shoulder space. The seating has been designed for optimum efficiency and a reasonable standard of comfort. The accountant and shareholder in me is very pleased with how efficiently they're kitting out their planes.
Unfortunately the tighter seating standards are becoming the norm right across the industry. Best you can hope for is the bigger windows, lower cabin altitude and fancy lighting of the new Dream liner to give the illusion of space and comfort or ante-up for business class.

Certainly cant disagree with their SP rise --but disagree with your seating standards comments --Some are providing roomier layouts and far more comfort--With all due respect ,if they rely to much on their accountants,it could come back to bite them in the future--who wants to fly in a cramped plane while still paying big money if they dont have to?---Who would have thought MAL would beat Air NZ hands down for comfort (service was fine as well) They have obviously managed to get the cash flowing and share holders are definitely benefiting,but lets not fool ourselves that their comfort and service is par with some of the better airlines(still think cramming so many seats on the dream liners is a bit cheapskate and may catch up to them.

(I wouldnt worry about looking bad compared to the American airlines though--lousy)

Disc-Ive found alot of flights in general are pretty full--I think its a good time for airlines in general ATM

[winner69]

When I flew London to Hong Kong on virgin Dreamliner a passenger who was a 'know all' on all things aviation said that virgin used to fly 316 passengers in a a340-600 on this route but the Dreamliner only carries 264.

Quite a drop in capacity for one of their milk run routes

does AIR have reduced capacity on the routes they are now using Dreamliners?

I see AIR squeeze 300 plus on to a Dreamliner - accountants at work?

Dreamliner over hyped in my opinion. Didn't seem much more comfortable than any other plans (the AIR dungers excepted) and hate the artificial night time thing when its 3pm outside. Suppose keep the passengers asleep they require less attention.

[winner69]

That know all also told me that Virgin Atlantic have one of the lowest toilets to passengers ratio

Their accountants are better

See you learn something every day

[winner69]

Hope you all enjoyed the strong SP uplift this week folks 15.5 cents. Don't spend it all at once :)

Beautiful chart - from October 1st - wow

Seems 300 a certainty next week - yes?

Mind you 300 is a significant resistance level. Tried to break through 300 several times over the years and failed. Even in 2007 it failed 3 times. (Not much return for holding 8 years is there?)

But this time its different eh - past 300 and above the clouds and into blue sky and less turbulence. I see 400 to 500 as a comfortable cruising altitude.

[Crackity]

Beautiful chart - from October 1st - wow

But this time its different eh - past 300 and above the clouds and into blue sky and less turbulence. I see 400 to 500 as a comfortable cruising altitude.

just to put a slightly less rosy quote in the thread.....but things could always be different this time, eh....

The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think airlines. Here a durable competitive advantage has proven elusive ever since the days of the Wright Brothers. Indeed, if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down.

— Warren Buffett, annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, February 2008.

[freddagg]

just to put a slightly less rosy quote in the thread.....but things could always be different this time, eh....

The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think airlines.

Oddly enough I immediately thought Xero

[winner69]

Oddly enough I immediately thought Xero

Fred, what a thing to say. Just as well Roger is out looking at a new launch for the summer. Otherwise he be spewing

I'll answer for him

Xero mkt cap $2.1 billion and AIR $3,1 billion

Xero has aspirations of SELLING $1 billion of stuff one day in the distant future. AIR PROFITS this year going to be $1 billion

And you have the cheek to mention them both in the same breath, naughty naughty

We'll forgive you

[Beagle]

Beautiful chart - from October 1st - wow

Seems 300 a certainty next week - yes?

Mind you 300 is a significant resistance level. Tried to break through 300 several times over the years and failed. Even in 2007 it failed 3 times. (Not much return for holding 8 years is there?)

But this time its different eh - past 300 and above the clouds and into blue sky and less turbulence. I see 400 to 500 as a comfortable cruising altitude.

In the 2007 year EPS after tax was 20.5 cps
In the 2008 year EPS after tax was 20.7 cps.

It couldn't break $3 because the stock was on a PE of 15.
This year I'm predicting inclusive of Virgin earnings EPS of 64 cps...just a little higher than either of those years :) but I'd prefer not to try and second guess when it cracks $3 and content to be on board for the long haul, slightly cramped seats and all. Nice chart. Couta1 - Mate I couldn't help work out your paper profit this week...180,000 x 15.5 cents =$27,900...nice week for you mate. Bet you're having a happy weekend !
Dreamliner with 302 seats replaces 767-300's with 238 seats but interestingly back in the 2008 report when I was just looking at it they were suggesting it would have 270 seats. Even I would concede there's probably too many accountants at Air N.Z.

[couta1]

Just saw your above post Roger, Yep very happy with paper profits to date mate:cool:

[winner69]

Steady positive start to the day

Maybe might see 290 but Monday's generally pretty quiet

But 3 bucks my month end if momentum continues .....and then blue sky territory, literally

[sb9]

Another good turnover day with no change in sp, I'm confident about hitting the $3 mark pretty soon.

[winner69]

Hope 284/285 not going to be the top

Pretty strong resistance

Really watching the chart at the moment

[sb9]

Was hoping to see a decent lift in sp today, with oil down overnight (no direct correlation though just sentiment) and strong day on NZ market.

Fair volume though so far.

[Beagle]

Its had a good solid 14% uplift since the guidance provided at the ASM. I am not surprised to see some consolidation at these level's before the next push higher. Good volumes suggest the naysayers are taking the opportunity to exit and take some profit while the true believers settle in for the long haul benefits :cool:

[Joshuatree]

I bought my first AIR shares today. A bit of a base formed re $2.40. Since the announcement @ 2pm buy vol has increased and s.p now $2.43 and rising

Just to clear up some misinformation posted on my holding or not,i bought on 18th June after ignoring all the Hubris up to $2.90. Felt the price was a good margin of safety although the s/p almost got back there again

[Beagle]

Not really overbought Couta1. Last time they told the annual meeting profit would double (2012 annual meeting) it roared up 20% in no time.
Winner you need plenty of patience my friend, remember we're in this for the long haul. Any minor weakness would be a great opportunity to top up even further :D

[Joshuatree]

Chart is looking pretty good .
Hubris means Arrogance, conceit ,haughtyness, vanity. self importance , self conceit, pomposity, feeling of superiority.

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11532277

Underscores some of my core investment theme's with AIR.

1. Air travel is incredibly cheap in real terms e.g. it cost my mother $2,000 to fly to the U.K. 23 years ago and you can fly there now on a qulaity airline like AIR for the same price on special now ! How many other products or services can you think of that haven't gone up in 23 years ?

2. AIR N.Z. are well positioned with a modern fuel efficient fleet and are positioned better than most when oil goes back up.

3. 60,000 new migrants last year, (highest ever), all wanting to see the country, fly back to their native homeland and have their friends and extended family come visit

4. Baby boomer generation have significantly more time and money on their hands now that the kids have left home.

5. Many younger generation people have simply given up on trying to save for their own home, (last census threw interesting light on the low proportion of people under 40 who own their own home) and are simply spending the money now, often on travel.

[Biscuit]

That article, not that inspiring:

"During the past five years there had been "tremendous growth" around the world. "We've seen 6 per cent passenger growth in terms of revenue passenger miles, which is above the trend of the last 30-40 years [where] we've seen 5 per cent growth per year, and we project about 5 per cent going forward,"

So, same growth going forward as over the past 40 years?

[Longhaul]

"During the past five years there had been "tremendous growth" around the world. "We've seen 6 per cent passenger growth in terms of revenue passenger miles, which is above the trend of the last 30-40 years [where] we've seen 5 per cent growth per year, and we project about 5 per cent going forward,"

So, same growth going forward as over the past 40 years?

Yeah but that's a compounding growth rate so to maintain 5% is pretty good isn't it?

[Biscuit]

and then:

" ... in the past five years airline profits had been around US$59 billion ($87 billion), with over half of that in the last year. This compared to no accumulated profits at all from across the entire commercial aviation sector for close to a century of flying... in the past year airlines had saved about US$40 billion in fuel costs.

a hundred years of no overall profit!

[Biscuit]

Yeah but that's a compounding growth rate so to maintain 5% is pretty good isn't it?

Just saying, the article didn't inspire me to look more favorably at airlines. Still hold AIR though.

[Beagle]

I believe the article is saying they have seen tremendous growth in the last five years and we expect that to continue.

In recent years we have seen a dramatic consolidation in U.S.A. carriers, (you may find this interesting http://students.com.miami.edu/netreporting/?page_id=1593 ), and there does seem to be a determination to make profits going forward come what may with the oil prices. you see this in all the extra charges airlines are levying passengers for now. If oil goes back up expect fuel surcharges to become rampant and recover most if not all the extra costs.

Airline sector is notorious for intense competition and that's why AIR s priced where it is on an extremely low PE. If we see any other future scenario play out then there's heaps of upside but brokers are all suggesting oil will ramp quickly back up and intense extra competition over and above what we already know exists is imminent too. What if they're wrong :)

[Biscuit]

I believe the article is saying they have seen tremendous growth in the last five years and we expect that to continue.



Yes, that bit does seem a bit ambiguous, as they also say 5% growth is the historic norm (for last 40 years).

[skid]

I wouldnt bet the farm either way on whether oil is going to ramp quickly back up--theres plenty of good reasons on both sides of that debate

[winner69]

Roger, fantastic sandwich eh that special sausage one

Do you think I should approach AIR whether they be interested in having gourmet sandwiches on long haul flights? I could use you as a reference

The food was a disappointment in my recent travels.

AIR share price not going anywhere today but I take comfort that NZX says its up 62% last 52 weeks.

Another 60% and this time next year $4.54 .......yippee ......in line with your est target so must be right.

[Beagle]

Roger, fantastic sandwich eh that special sausage one

Do you think I should approach AIR whether they be interested in having gourmet sandwiches on long haul flights? I could use you as a reference

The food was a disappointment in my recent travels.

AIR share price not going anywhere today but I take comfort that NZX says its up 62% last 52 weeks.

Another 60% and this time next year $4.54 .......yippee ......in line with your est target so must be right.

You'll have to come to the annual meeting...will be a big party next year and everyone will be in a great mood with the SP well north of here and their special divvy in their pocket. They had delicious salmon sandwiches there last time...almost felt like I was dining business class :)...not as good as your culinary delights though. You could fill a role as their business class food consultant mate :)

[couta1]

It amazes me why people are happy to buy a share like Chorus at around the same price as Air when it has no divvy and more fleas than an abandoned dog, just sayin:cool:

[sb9]

Bit of resistance atm at that 285 level, need to break that to move towards the magic $3 mark.

[stoploss]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11532277

Underscores some of my core investment theme's with AIR.

1. Air travel is incredibly cheap in real terms e.g. it cost my mother $2,000 to fly to the U.K. 23 years ago and you can fly there now on a qulaity airline like AIR for the same price on special now ! How many other products or services can you think of that haven't gone up in 23 years ?

2. AIR N.Z. are well positioned with a modern fuel efficient fleet and are positioned better than most when oil goes back up.

3. 60,000 new migrants last year, (highest ever), all wanting to see the country, fly back to their native homeland and have their friends and extended family come visit

4. Baby boomer generation have significantly more time and money on their hands now that the kids have left home.

5. Many younger generation people have simply given up on trying to save for their own home, (last census threw interesting light on the low proportion of people under 40 who own their own home) and are simply spending the money now, often on travel.

1, Computers , TV's , in fact pretty much all household appliances.Crockery , Cutlery , Cars , plenty of examples out there Roger .

[Marilyn Munroe]

It amazes me why people are happy to buy a share like Chorus at around the same price as Air when it has no divvy and more fleas than an abandoned dog, just sayin:cool:

Chorus = Last mile monopoly, network effect and barriers to entry.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Snow Leopard]

It amazes me why people are happy to buy a share like Chorus at around the same price as Air when it has no divvy and more fleas than an abandoned dog, just sayin:cool:

I seem to recall you bought Chorus because it had a nice divvy etc and then something happened.
Now you have far too high a percentage of your portfolio in AIR than is sensible.

Just saying :cool:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Very unhealthy in Shah Alam (http://www.nst.com.my/news/2015/10/very-unhealthy-shah-alam)

[Beagle]

It amazes me why people are happy to buy a share like Chorus at around the same price as Air when it has no divvy and more fleas than an abandoned dog, just sayin:cool:

LOL, classic. You need to start flying around the country, (AIR N.Z.) of course and start collecting abandoned flea ridden dogs...more fun that teddy bears and so much more rewarding to own :)


1, Computers , TV's , in fact pretty much all household appliances.Crockery , Cutlery , Cars , plenty of examples out there Roger .

Yeah fair comment and probably explains why sales of new cars. big screen TV's, electronics, computers and Briscoes type products are going from strength to strength too.

[Beagle]

I seem to recall you bought Chorus because it had a nice divvy etc and then something happened.
Now you have far too high a percentage of your portfolio in AIR than is sensible.

Just saying :cool:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Very unhealthy in Shah Alam (http://www.nst.com.my/news/2015/10/very-unhealthy-shah-alam)

I believe our friend believes in the Joshua 1:9 principle of investing. His courage is in many ways very admirable. He will get a mammoth payday when this company's excellence is finally understood by the market.

The other thing is if people's income is significantly above the average and their living costs significantly below the average they're in a far better position to withstand the turbulence that comes from a less diversified portfolio. Just saying :cool:

[freddagg]

It amazes me why people are happy to buy a share like Chorus at around the same price as Air when it has no divvy and more fleas than an abandoned dog, just sayin:cool:

Your posts have always amazed me couta. just sayin.

[couta1]

Your posts have always amazed me couta. just sayin. I'll take that as a compliment even if its not.

[stoploss]

I believe our friend believes in the Joshua 1:9 principle of investing. His courage is in many ways very admirable. He will get a mammoth payday when this company's excellence is finally understood by the market.

The other thing is if people's income is significantly above the average and their living costs significantly below the average they're in a far better position to withstand the turbulence that comes from a less diversified portfolio. Just saying :cool:

I Think the Buff sums it up ...

Investing within your circle of competence“Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing. Why not invest your assets in the companies you really like?”As an investor it is very important to stick to what one knows. It is impossible for one to know everything about every company. Buffett does not try to invest in companies whose business he does not understand. He sat on tens of billions of dollars of cash during the technology boom because he had no expertise in technology. This even though he is a close friend of Bill Gates! It is important that one does not give into temptation and understand his circle of competence, however small it might be.3. Diversification: Buffett’s take on it.“Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing.”This again goes with Buffett’s philosophy of investing within one’s circle of competence. Diversification to avoid risk is not a great idea at all. Diversifying can in fact lead to loss of profits when money is spread across too many investments. As Buffett states “diversification is a hedge against our own ignorance. It makes very little sense for those who know what they are doing”. Being a successful investor requires rigor and discipline. If one cannot do either, then he is better off being a passive investor, and index funds would be a better choice for him. This is one principle where Buffett disagreed with his guru Benjamin Graham. Graham recommended diversification into various stocks and index funds for all retail investors.

[couta1]

She's away now, winner are you watching?:cool:

[couta1]

Thanks stoploss for the above post, eventually I will become even less diversified once the remaining rats and mice in my portfolio either break even or are eradicated, I'd be happy to have 3 or 4 stocks only, cheers

[banter]

IMO it's not about 'knowing what you're doing'. The future's unknowable.
My max percent holding in one stock is 10%; less for small caps.
Nearly 40% in one stock, however good, seems very risky.

[winner69]

She's away now, winner are you watching?:cool:

Hope the line on the chart goes up as steep as the jet i just saw climb out of wellington - almost cruising height before it reached Evans Bay. Very windy

[couta1]

IMO it's not about 'knowing what you're doing'. The future's unknowable.
My max percent holding in one stock is 10%; less for small caps.
Nearly 40% in one stock, however good, seems very risky. I've done enough research now to realise that the big money is made by those with large holdings in well managed quality stocks such as this one. All of life is risky but everyone has a different tolerance to risk, driving your car is the riskiest thing you will ever undertake on a regular basis but are people going to stop driving cars?

[Beagle]

Hope the line on the chart goes up as steep as the jet i just saw climb out of wellington - almost cruising height before it reached Evans Bay. Very windy

You want to be flying with the best pilot's AIR has landing at Wellington on a really windy day :eek2:

[winner69]

I believe our friend believes in the Joshua 1:9 principle of investing. His courage is in many ways very admirable. He will get a mammoth payday when this company's excellence is finally understood by the market.

The other thing is if people's income is significantly above the average and their living costs significantly below the average they're in a far better position to withstand the turbulence that comes from a less diversified portfolio. Just saying :cool:

You been reading The Bible mate, good on you

Mark 7:14-23 is a good piece from The Bible which has some relevance to recent postings on this thread

Glad that the phrase on a wing and a prayer doesn't apply to Air NZ

Heck AIR share price jet propelled at the moment eh

[Beagle]

http://www.tourismnewzealand.com/news/managing-visitor-demand/

Some interesting points in there including :- Tourism growth is nearly 8% per annum, (well above the 5% Boeing are projecting for world-wide passenger growth) and 80% of their marketing spend is pushing shoulder season travel and marketing travel to N.Z. for wealthy travellers. Now at 3m visitors per annum and they're projecting 4 million per annum within 4 years !! Just as well AIR is investing in all those new planes, international and domestic :)

I was in Taupo a couple of weeks ago and looked at the crystal clear clarity and pureness of the water as it flowed out of the lake and into the Waikato river. Just the same as I remember it as a kid when we used to go on holiday there 45 years ago. I doubt you'd see more crystal clear water flowing into a river anywhere else in the world. Its the same at Queenstown. There are very sound reasons tourists are coming here in droves.

Thanks for the encouragement Winner, good passage that one :)

[Beagle]

Doesn't it annoy you when you post something and then find is already out of date...unless its good news
http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/Migration/IntTravelAndMigration_MRSep15.aspx Latest stat's out today no doubt fuelling THL and AIR's SP advance for the day.
Visitor arrivals for the year to September 2015 are up 9% and for the month of September 2015 up a whopping 12% on last year ! Kiwi's are travelling abroad in great numbers too and net migration is very strong. Suppose all those extra 60,000 plus migrants will want to visit every corner of the country as well as have their relatives fly over and stay and I guess they'll also want to fly back to their motherland from time to time too.
Looks like AIR N.Z's management's optimism for the future is very soundly based.

[sb9]

Agree Roger, pretty impressive numbers those tourist figures.

[Biscuit]

You been reading The Bible mate, good on you

Mark 7:14-23 is a good piece from The Bible which has some relevance to recent postings on this thread

Glad that the phrase on a wing and a prayer doesn't apply to Air NZ

Heck AIR share price jet propelled at the moment eh

Oh great, bible quotes! Blessed are the destroyers of false hope, for they are the true Messiahs - Cursed are the god-adorers, for they shall be shorn sheep!”
― Anton Szandor LaVey (https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2983296.Anton_Szandor_LaVey), The Satanic Bible (https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/1039648)

[winner69]

[url]

Thanks for the encouragement Winner, good passage that one :)

Yes I remember Mark 7:14-23 well.

My mum made me read it everytime she caught me calling my brothers or mates names ......she said son it's all about the pot calling the kettle black

Do you think AIR painting some of their planes a bit differently a good marketing ploy. NZ1 looked impressive taking off from Heathrow

A plane spotters favourite is NZ1 I'm told

[sb9]

Can we pls not distract from AIR thread.

One of my colleague's partner is leaving by one of those AIR flight flown by All Blacks Tours along with the Beaver tonight for semis and finals.

[winner69]

Really strong close at 290 .....everybody keen as mustard to buy. Afraid of missing out?

That 3 bucks by Friday likely ....but by end of the month will do

[vin]

Yep I see $3 by the end of the week, everyone scrambling it seems

[couta1]

I seem to recall you bought Chorus because it had a nice divvy etc and then something happened.
Now you have far too high a percentage of your portfolio in AIR than is sensible.

Just saying :cool:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Very unhealthy in Shah Alam (http://www.nst.com.my/news/2015/10/very-unhealthy-shah-alam) Outrageously sensible comes to mind, portfolio only minus 10% now, was minus 19% a few weeks ago, thanks Air NZ:cool:

[Beagle]

She's going to crack that $3 ceiling sometime soon that's for sure. You can't have a record profit and then the airline implicitly guiding to a doubling again of that record and the market not finally waking up to the enormous growth in EPS. I'm a show me the money sort of guy. These guys are smashing the ball right out of the park, (so too speak), and they'll probably be doing the same for many years.

[belted galloway]

Looks like AirNZ are facing some high class competition :p:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/73192252/airport-tractor-ban-ageist

[DarkHorse]

I believe the article is saying they have seen tremendous growth in the last five years and we expect that to continue.

In recent years we have seen a dramatic consolidation in U.S.A. carriers, (you may find this interesting http://students.com.miami.edu/netreporting/?page_id=1593 ), and there does seem to be a determination to make profits going forward come what may with the oil prices. you see this in all the extra charges airlines are levying passengers for now. If oil goes back up expect fuel surcharges to become rampant and recover most if not all the extra costs.

Airline sector is notorious for intense competition and that's why AIR s priced where it is on an extremely low PE. If we see any other future scenario play out then there's heaps of upside but brokers are all suggesting oil will ramp quickly back up and intense extra competition over and above what we already know exists is imminent too. What if they're wrong :)

Good point. I wouldn't bet the farm on it due to lack of 'moat', but a lot more upside potential than downside risk atm. Airlines can be vanity projects, but there are less of those nowadays and AIR NZ is very much run as a business with a focus on ROI.


Oh great, bible quotes! Blessed are the destroyers of false hope, for they are the true Messiahs - Cursed are the god-adorers, for they shall be shorn sheep!”
― Anton Szandor LaVey (https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2983296.Anton_Szandor_LaVey), The Satanic Bible (https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/1039648)

Isaiah 53 - <600BC - false hope?

[banter]

New all-time high (using dividend-adjusted prices). Might attract some trend followers.

[Biscuit]

Isaiah 53 - <600BC - false hope?

Nice and apt bible quote DarkHorse! but just remember how it ended for that guy.

[winner69]

I believe that part of Air NZ success is that they have competently reconceptualized interoperable value.

the outcomes generate a fair chunk of the $1 billion likely earnings this year which makes them one of the most profitable airlines in the world (relatively)

[Robomo]

I believe that part of Air NZ success is that they have competently reconceptualized interoperable value.


Maybe I'm dumb but I couldn't understand that phrase so looked it up. Now that I understand what it means I completely agree. The definition is...

"Continually build extensive users through intuitive niches. Dynamically conceptualize customized models with functional ideas. Uniquely strategize inexpensive interfaces vis-a-vis multimedia based potentialities."

[Jantar]

I think I understood the original phrase, but what on earth does that definition mean?

[sb9]

Big volume already at the open, may be the $3 mark is closer than we think...

[couta1]

I think I understood the original phrase, but what on earth does that definition mean?
It basically means a whole lot of good s__t is going on.

[Beagle]

It basically means a whole lot of good s__t is going on.

Many thanks mate for translating all of the above into English. My brain was starting to hurt and then I realised there's a good reason why I'm not one of the super bright ones at AIR earning $500K plus LOL.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/73192252/airport-tractor-ban-ageist Hmmmm wondering how old that Saab 340 is :eek2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_340 According to Wiki production ended in 1998 so this old plane must be at least 18 years old based on a start date of flight operations in 2016 but based on the mid point of production for this aircraft type it is more likely to be circa 26 years old ! Slow too at average cruise speed of only 252 knots. I doubt they'll ever advertise the age but the Massey Fergueson tractor somehow seems quite appropriate really....guess I must be ageist too :) Good thing is the initial capex to start an operation with such and old relic of a plane would be really very modest so they should have enough money left over to do a fresh lube and oil change on the engines before that start flight operations. Feel a little bit sorry for Ewan Wilson...really this is quite "the comedown" from Kiwiair day's isn't it !

Update - Just in case any aviation enthusiast is interested. Production of the Saab 340A (the aircraft type they're using), started in 1983. The improved Saab 340B production started in 1989 so based on the mid point of Saab340A production 1986, the aircraft they're using will be an incredible 30 years old in 2016 !! By comparison AiR N.Z. typically retire aircraft after 18 years service.

I see over a million shares traded already...looks like one of two institutions might have finally woken up and started to smell the coffee...

[tony64peter]

Heard a whisper that a 300 being painted in Vegas was undercoated in wrong material and has caused significant corrosion to tail. Aircraft AOG. Anyone have further info???

[stoploss]

Roger , what are the ins and outs of the remaining Govt shareholding . Any chance of a further selldown ?

[winner69]

Heard a whisper that a 300 being painted in Vegas was undercoated in wrong material and has caused significant corrosion to tail. Aircraft AOG. Anyone have further info???

All this lingo

AOG - aircraft on ground?

[Zaphod]

Roger , what are the ins and outs of the remaining Govt shareholding . Any chance of a further selldown ?

National have been unequivocal on their intention to keep the 51% holding in all partially floated SOE's. I can't see this changing anytime soon.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Roger , what are the ins and outs of the remaining Govt shareholding . Any chance of a further selldown ?

I'll step in here if I may. Those who follow my posts will know I snarkily call Air NZ Cullen Airlines. I do this because the Labour Government in the form of finance minister Michael Cullen had to chuck enormous amounts of tax payers money at the airline when it was on the verge of failure following the ANSETT debarcle.

Cullen Airlines at the moment seems to be basking in golden weather, but will this continue? The goverment should get out of the airline business to avoid the risk of having to bail out the airline again. Cullen Airlines has an existing alliance with an airline based in a oil rich sand state.

John Key sell Cullen Airlines to Etihad.


Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[tony64peter]

All this lingo

AOG - aircraft on ground?

Correct If true then this aircraft is not making any money.

[Beagle]

I'll step in here if I may. Those who follow my posts will know I snarkily call Air NZ Cullen Airlines. I do this because the Labour Government in the form of finance minister Michael Cullen had to chuck enormous amounts of tax payers money at the airline when it was on the verge of failure following the ANSETT debarcle.

Cullen Airlines at the moment seems to be basking in golden weather, but will this continue? The goverment should get out of the airline business to avoid the risk of having to bail out the airline again. Cullen Airlines has an existing alliance with an airline based in a oil rich sand state.

John Key sell Cullen Airlines to Etihad.


Boop boop de do
Marilyn

I have debated this with you at length previously and outlined the vast amounts of tax and PAYE the government has received through its investment in AIR. Further they are circa $2 billion in credit in terms of the current market value compared to their original investment of only $550m. There's also the national interest to consider and the CEO is adamant that Kiwi's enjoy some of the lowest regional airfares in the world on a comparative basis with other sparsely populated countries. 11,000 extremely well paid jobs for Kiwi's are also at stake and I personally believe most of those people would be offended or mortified by your repeated suggestion / agenda. I find your post obtuse and lacking any possible realistic commercial argument.

[Robomo]

Roger is right on AIR profitability and low domestic airfares.

Just looked at...
Sydney - Wagga Wagga (65 minutes flight time). Qantas flies a Turboprop Q400 aircraft (similar size to the AIR ATR aircraft). Return trip 24/26 Nov $NZ322
Auckland - Palmerston North (65 minutes flight time). ATR Turboprop aircraft. Return trip 24/26 Nov $NZ158

Same flying time, less than half the cost and a free lolly as well.

Financially, I suggest AIR is in better shape than Qantas

[Marilyn Munroe]

[QUOTE=Roger;595006]Roger disagrees with Marilyn Munroe about the NZ govt selling its stake in AirNZ>./QUOTE]

Lets agree to disagree Roger.

You are not a decider on selling, the deciders are persons who have a reputation for spending money on baubles purchased with other peoples money.

I refer to cabinet ministers. If the government no longer owned Cullen Airlines they would no longer for reasons of nationalism and sentimentality need to use them.

If a cabinet minister needed to travel to the United Kingdom for the World Cup vital public business they would be free to choose any airline which provides a style which reflects their elevated opinion of themselves.

http://www.etihad.com/en-nz/experience-etihad/on-board/first-class/

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Beagle]

[QUOTE=Roger;595006]Roger disagrees with Marilyn Munroe about the NZ govt selling its stake in AirNZ>./QUOTE]

Lets agree to disagree Roger.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

I'll agree to disagree if you'll stop your repeated posts on the same topic without putting up your commercial arguments supporting your left wing theoretical approach.
Fact is your suggestion by my calculations could carve circa a $2 billion dollar hole per annum out of the N.Z. economy, (lost share of profit, lost tax, lost PAYE and lost Kiwi wages, AIR's wages bill alone is over $1b per annum. Etihad would use overseas based crew and they'd undoubtedly ratchet up fares carving further funds out of the N.Z. economy. Not sure what your agenda is here but please stop repeating the same set of instructions as I am sure we're all heard your much repeated request many times over already. You claim its worth carving this huge circa $2b hole per annum out of our economy just to avoid the potential of a possible further support payment at some future stage. Another $500m at some stage in the future vs maybe 10 years of certain $2b losses to the N.Z. economy, that would be maybe $20 billion lost, (thought I'd do the maths for you, appears you might find the calculations helpful). Go figure ????? Like I said, please write to Mr Key directly and stop boring us with your completly nonsensical agenda. I believe thousands of shareholders and 11,000 staff would find your posts completely insensitive so please take it elsewhere.

I think its time you come clean on your agenda here Malilyn. Are you a former AIR N.Z. employee that's in dispute with Air N.Z. ?
Do you currently work in any capacity for Etihad ? If not why do you persistently mention AIR should be sold to Etihad rather than some other airline ?
What relevance does posting a link to Etihad's first class service experience on AIR's thread have to this forum ? Was this link designed deliberately to antagonise shareholders ?
Why do you post the same repetitive request to sell our National airline to Etihad over and over again on this forum ?
Why do you never support this with any sort of impact study or analysis on the downside to Kiwi staff and shareholders or the travelling public ?

Do some homework on the airline and you'll find that the reason the Govt first invested in TEAL 75 years ago was that they wanted to protect our national interests, (like many other countries do with their wholly and partially owned airlines) and reap the commercial benefits through its share of profits, company taxation and PAYE. Don't you think the Govt know how to paddle their own canoe ?

[allfromacell]

[QUOTE=Roger;595006]Roger disagrees with Marilyn Munroe about the NZ govt selling its stake in AirNZ>./QUOTE]

Lets agree to disagree Roger.

You are not a decider on selling, the deciders are persons who have a reputation for spending money on baubles purchased with other peoples money.

I refer to cabinet ministers. If the government no longer owned Cullen Airlines they would no longer for reasons of nationalism and sentimentality need to use them.

If a cabinet minister needed to travel to the United Kingdom for the World Cup vital public business they would be free to choose any airline which provides a style which reflects their elevated opinion of themselves.

http://www.etihad.com/en-nz/experience-etihad/on-board/first-class/

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Using tax payers dollars no doubt.

[skid]

Roger is right on AIR profitability and low domestic airfares.

Just looked at...
Sydney - Wagga Wagga (65 minutes flight time). Qantas flies a Turboprop Q400 aircraft (similar size to the AIR ATR aircraft). Return trip 24/26 Nov $NZ322
Auckland - Palmerston North (65 minutes flight time). ATR Turboprop aircraft. Return trip 24/26 Nov $NZ158

Same flying time, less than half the cost and a free lolly as well.

Financially, I suggest AIR is in better shape than Qantas

Its all about passenger numbers rather than plane type and flight time--but agree aIR is in better shape financially

[winner69]

Air NZ really strong on research and the use of data I'm told. Helps efficiencies etc but above all us enhances the customer experience.

If there is a Clairvoyant Airline operating then it is Air NZ - follow up McKinsey case study coming I reckon

http://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/Travel%20Transport%20Logistics/PDFs/The_clairvoyant_airline.ashx

[winner69]

Away to a flying start today .....ever so close to 3 bucks

World seems a happy place again today with heaps more green than red on the bourse.

Roger, you fancy sweet and sour Asian tastes. Just experimenting with sandwiches again and need a taster.

[Beagle]

US airlines I follow up 3.25% on average overnight, markets up strongly with the oil price staying low and a benign outlook...some good tailwinds here...I think we could go close to $3.00 today.
I don't really care how silly this sounds as I am more than happy to back my own judgement but on EPS, outlook, fleet age and especially the calibre of the management basis, I see no reason whatsoever why AIR should trade below the Qantas price. Really this stock should be $3.80-$3.90 already IMO. I'll probably get flamed by someone calling this a ramp but this is really what I think so perhaps the sceptics who think there's some sort of ceiling at $3.00 should probably take the opportunity to get off the share register today. Might dine out for lunch today on my profits Winner69.

[tzbang]

wondering if the reason Qantas trades unreasonably higher than AirNZ might just be to do with Australian patriotism? (i.e. more Australian investors - keen to invest in Australian airlines)

[sb9]

US airlines I follow up 3.25% on average overnight, markets up strongly with the oil price staying low and a benign outlook...some good tailwinds here...I think we could go close to $3.00 today.
I don't really care how silly this sounds as I am more than happy to back my own judgement but on EPS, outlook, fleet age and especially the calibre of the management basis, I see no reason whatsoever why AIR should trade below the Qantas price. Really this stock should be $3.80-$3.90 already IMO. I'll probably get flamed by someone calling this a ramp but this is really what I think so perhaps the sceptics who think there's some sort of ceiling at $3.00 should probably take the opportunity to get off the share register today. Might dine out for lunch today on my profits Winner69.

Go for it Roger, you earned it.

Yeah, I think this kiwi should be flying higher than the kangaroo in my opinion, hey who cares.. I think it'll break the $3 ceiling today.

[winner69]

That $3 ceiling has been resistance in the past

Once through that resistance its all blue sky again

One good thing about resistance levels is that when broken they become SUPPORT LEVELS in the future. So even if there is a slight hiccup (probably market driven rather than Air specific) once over $3 we will never see AIR share price with a 2 in fron of it again

All this a bit irrelevant anyway - soon we be talking about possible resistance at $4 (round numbers often become red trance levels)

Oops, a bit ahead of myself - aint got to 3 bucks yet

[sb9]

As I see it, the 3 in front of sp would be a norm soon. All those encouraging tourist numbers gotta be great boost.

[winner69]

As I see it, the 3 in front of sp would be a norm soon. All those encouraging tourist numbers gotta be great boost.

Over $3 isn't really blue sky territory

The AIR shareprice has been there before

sb9 - it once was $16 odd .....good to get back there wouldn't it

[sb9]

sb9 - it once was $18 odd .....good to get back there wouldn't it

That'll be wonderful, but i'll be happy between $4-$5 mark within next 18 months.

[winner69]

I think history is about to repeat itself

The share price moved from $3.20 in Jan 1991 to $16.22 in Jan 1994

Yep up 5 times in 3 years - history does repeat itself sometimes doesn't it

[Beagle]

Booking flights Auckland to Queenstown in January for a holiday. Believe it or not there's a few opportunities that month to fly down on Jet-battery-hen-class for $49, (guess they have to almost give away their chicken coup sized 2 hour ordeal if no one wants it), but I'm anteing-up for the $99 Koru hour flights with coffee and muffin, far more leg room and flying my own airline. Just wanted to set the record straight that I am more often than not more than happy to pay extra to fly a proper airline.

[Beagle]

As I see it, the 3 in front of sp would be a norm soon. All those encouraging tourist numbers gotta be great boost.

Agreed. 9% growth in tourism is a massive tailwind for AIR and there's no reason for that to diminish. All the naysayers, non-believers and those that think $3 is the ceiling might want to consider if this is their golden opportunity to sell...hopefully that pushes the SP back to $2.90 and I can buy some more :D

[Biscuit]

naysayer: "One who frequently engages in excessive complaining, negative banter and/or a genuinely poor and downbeat attitude. Naysayers are distinguished by their tendency to consistently view the glass half empty, make frequent one-way trips to negative town, and constantly emphasize the worst of a situation. They have the capacity to rant and whine for hours on end about the most insignificant inconveniences. They tend to travel solo, but have the keen ability to spread their pessimistic attitude to a group of unsuspecting bystanders and encourage others to employ their mindset.
Naysayers tend to blend in with those around them rather well, granted they have learned over the years to adapt to their surroundings. However, when the opportunity arises, their true nature will be exposed and they will stop at nothing to exclude others or bring a general sense of negativity to any situation.
Not to be confused with non-naysayers who fight against the negativity brought forth by naysayers, make the best of a situation and are not afraid to call out a naysayer on the spot."

wow, you wouldn't want to be one of those!

[Crackity]

wow, you wouldn't want to be one of those!

And let's not forget non believers Satan - a subject you should be familiar with?

The believer, awestruck by the grandiosity of the universe and the puzzle of origins, will insist that "there must be something." To this, the nonbeliever will agree - yes, there must be something. But to nonbelievers, that something equates to explanations that have not yet been discovered. The difference between believers and nonbelievers is that the former insist that the "something" must be defined as a being with intent, or at least a mysterious "higher power." The nonbeliever, on the other hand, takes a more humble position, simply conceding that these questions cannot be answered based on current limits on knowledge.

[winner69]

Jeez, naysayers and non-naysayers and believers and non-believers. Isn't the world a mess.

All I know that Air NZ by enthusiastically reconceptualizing technically sound schemas are moving ahead of their competitors

Leads to increased sustainable profits and ever increasing share price

[Beagle]

True that Winner. AIR are right on the money with their fast forward of all things electronic and digital recognising that most people are embracing new technology. Who in their right mind for instance hasn't signed up for the daily deals available on www.grabaseat.co.nz. Some ripper deals today ! Further, its interesting to note that their airpoints membership grew a whopping 17% last year...that's a lot of new customers they're communicating with by e.mail in terms of sales and promotion activity isn't it !!

[Biscuit]

And let's not forget non believers Satan - a subject you should be familiar with?

The believer, awestruck by the grandiosity of the universe and the puzzle of origins, will insist that "there must be something." To this, the nonbeliever will agree - yes, there must be something. But to nonbelievers, that something equates to explanations that have not yet been discovered. The difference between believers and nonbelievers is that the former insist that the "something" must be defined as a being with intent, or at least a mysterious "higher power." The nonbeliever, on the other hand, takes a more humble position, simply conceding that these questions cannot be answered based on current limits on knowledge.

It is a good company that has reconceptualized itself - and successfully implemented that. I'm a shareholder but I will never be a believer.

[winner69]

True that Winner. AIR are right on the money with their fast forward of all things electronic and digital recognising that most people are embracing new technology. Who in their right mind for instance hasn't signed up for the daily deals available on www.grabaseat.co.nz. Some ripper deals today ! Further, its interesting to note that their airpoints membership grew a whopping 17% last year...that's a lot of new customers they're communicating with by e.mail in terms of sales and promotion activity isn't it !!

Yep, more emails from Air NZ than Kathmandu

That's spooky

[winner69]

Qantas ASM today

Latest operating stats very impressive. Even say oil cost is going to be lower than forecasts. Underlying earnings going to a record this year at just under $2 billion some commentators say.

Jeez, if Qantas can do this just what is Air NZ capable off this year - even more than Rogers $1 billion?

[Biscuit]

naysayer:

wow, you wouldn't want to be one of those!

Cheerleader: "Cheerleading is an activity that involves tumbling, stunting, and the promotion of spirit. Depending on what skill level your team requires, skills can range from just the ability to smile and yell "go team go," or the ability to do difficult gymnastics and advanced stunting."

cheerleading on the other hand, can apparently require real skill!

[Beagle]

Perhaps we should leave the politics and religion out of this as those things are to forums what bombs are to market places in the middle east, (that would include anyone with a political leaning to selling the airline to Etihad or any other airline). I also think nobody needs to explain the meaning of words as we all have access to online dictionary's for goodness sake.

Thanks for the head's up on QAN ASM Winner. I will have a read of directors guidance / comments.

[Snow Leopard]

With a cat cafe opening in Auckland (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/animals-pets/news/article.cfm?c_id=500834&objectid=11533258) soon this, obviously, will drastically increase the number of Asian tourists coming to New Zealand, as they will be re-assured that NZ is almost a civilized culture.

Obviously they will all fly Air New Zealand as much of the way as they can, probably walking to Singapore to do so.

So AIR will be the first $100 share on the NZX in no time.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS Anyone who disagrees with me is a spoil-sport and I hope their Tui goes flat.

PPS Have a good weekend :).

PPPS one of the commas in this post, may be sarcastic.

[Beagle]

Qantas ASM today

Latest operating stats very impressive. Even say oil cost is going to be lower than forecasts. Underlying earnings going to a record this year at just under $2 billion some commentators say.

Jeez, if Qantas can do this just what is Air NZ capable off this year - even more than Rogers $1 billion?

Just under $2b with 2.196b shares on issue is about the same as Air doing $1billion with 1.12b shares on issue but yes I think there is possible upside to my estimate as tourism is running well above last year's 7% growth. Be nice if they made a neat underlying profit before tax of $1 a share wouldn't it :)

P.S. Seeing as last year's cash flow was $1.1b, (a dollar a share), I wonder what they're going to do with this year's bumper cash flow ? (seeing as their profit will be circa double and their capex lower).

So...Paper Tiger last time you appeared to do some useful number crunching with those paws of yours I saw you valued AIR at $2.92 but talked about updating your valuation which I invited you to do but nothing forthcoming ? Care to share or seeing as the SP is now above your last on record value have you decided to roll over like pussycat and play dead and sell ? or does above sarcasm indicate you might actually think there's mileage in flying Tiger class, (you like what I did there with Virgin's subsidiary Tiger air) :)

[Biscuit]

Perhaps we should leave the politics and religion out of this as those things are to forums what bombs are to market places in the middle east, (that would include anyone with a political leaning to selling the airline to Etihad or any other airline). I also think nobody needs to explain the meaning of words as we all have access to online dictionary's for goodness sake.

Whoops, I guess I've transgressed on all the rules Roger! To be clear, its: No religious comments (dang, I'll have to put away the satanic bible), no politics (actually that's ok - I have no politics), no use of dictionaries to define meanings (sorry, just a bit of fun), no naysayers (I have an inclination towards pessimism - might be why I'm only worth a few million), no whimps (ditto), and no non-believers (damn, I keep hitting that religion thing).

[Beagle]

As for what people claim they worth on the internet...I always take that with a grain of salt and in my experience of 30 years as an accountant I find more often than not when people talk their net worth up its because they feel the need too due to feelings of financial inadequacy and the reality being quite dramatically different.

Anyway...yes please keep it on topic. Better add something about AIR so no one can claim I'm off topic. Apparently the sharklet wing tips on their A320's save about 110 kg's of fuel on a reasonable length domestic flight and heaps of carbon emissions so the planet will be cooler...good thing.

[Biscuit]

As for what people claim they worth on the internet...I always take that with a grain of salt and in my experience of 30 years as an accountant I find more often than not when people talk their net worth up its because they feel the need too due to feelings of financial inadequacy and the reality being quite dramatically different.


My point was that pessimism can hold you back from making more - it can also stop you losing more. It's a double edged sword, the same as unbridled optimism. I guess we all have our natural investment styles. I've more than doubled my money on AIR (you can believe that or not - up to you). I've sold out half since it started getting hyped and the whole airline industry started to hit it's straps. I know I've sold too early - I usually do. The half I still have, cost me nothing and I'll hold that for a while longer. Airlines are traditionally cyclical and unprofitable. Things can always be different - but usually they are not.

[freddagg]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/272282

Some more fantastic numbers