AIR - Air NZ.

[vin]

I've taken the opportunity to increase my holding in AIR with the weakness in price over recent days. To me, this stock has significant movements based on a couple of competitive announcements. Again, turbulence is part an parcel of the aviation game and thus we see a bit of a bumpy ride in the SP. I still have absolute faith in the fundamentals of this business given the investment in fleet, its people and innovation w.r.t new revenue channels. Given the information publicised at the recent AGM, AIR is in a very good position domestically and internationally which to me will translate into a record FY16 year. My pick is for the price to breach the $3 barrier at or around the half year results announcement, with a significnat uplift from FY15 expected and a likely special dividend due.

AIR has a smart strategy of not relying on any monopolistic route position in the modern world and thus I believe the drop in SP is completely overcooked. I don't think we will go as low as $2.40 any time soon - I personally agree with Roger that fair value is circa $3.50-3.75 for a top quality organisation with excellent leadership and a stellar recent track record.

I'm in this for the long haul, so to speak.

Yep well said, I'm with ya.

[Teeps]

Singapore Airlines has Scoot, Qantas has Jetstar so I wouldn't rule it out as a possibility. Maybe they could keep some of the old 767-300's they're retiring next year, (which would have basically been depreciated down to almost nothing in their books), and use them. Saw a couple of them land at the airport the other day. Amazing what a lick of new paint does to an old plane.

So a major announcement of a new route tomorrow morning and at least one more in 2016...sounds good to me :)

Don't think Freedom will rise from the ashes - Air NZ runs a low cost model on the tasman which includes seat only options and having to purchase movies/food etc either on board or buying 'the works' ticket types... Too many additional costs running a subsidiary in our part of the world. I like the mix of options depending on route distance (ie domestic, tasman, islands vs long haul all have different strategies). Given the survey I completed this morning, it looks as thought AIR are looking to invest in changes to the travelling experience on board to customise it and make it as pleasant as possible.... so i see a move towards the next iteration of 'service' when flying... watch this space.

Interesting developments over night with Singapore and Lufthansa announcing more cooperation between Singapore and Europe. http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/sia-and-lufthansa-sign-partnership-on-key-routes-between-singapore-and-europe

Given AIR has a much closer bond to SQ these days, be interesting to see the flow on effects for AIR customers flying through Singapore for connections to Europe via codesharing agreements....

[skid]

Skid - AIR has updated the market that they expect profit to double this half since the last time they touched down to $2.40. In my view this advice was well ahead of the market consensus view and I think the fact that the SP went up strongly after that announcement at the annual meeting is supportive of my view.

I'm not saying it can't / won't go down to $2.40 again, but I am saying I think this is unlikely on the balance of probabilities based on current guidance, new routes and all the other things I've mentioned.

I have a lot of confidence in the management and directors and believe this is a very high calibre company...maybe that's why I don't get too concerned with short term price variations and am happy to be on board for the long haul.

Fair enough and a logical call--thats what im looking for -healthy debate--
I also believe the $499 LA was just a shot across the bow and there is no reason to give seats away until its necessary when AA comes to town--(then I wouldnt be surprised though) My guess is that each will respond to each other.
Is there really a reason to resurrect a low cost subsidiary/ They already have grabaseat.
Profit may well double this half as you mention--but the next half is really the issue now ,so while i think you are most likely right about the 2.40 I do not think it will breach $3 and will struggle to get back to where it was a few weeks ago--just my opinion

Could you please ask your fellow owners to give me a nice cheap price to SE Asia this next winter and my wife to Vancouver? --Thanx:)

[Beagle]

You signed up to the daily deals on Grabaseat skid ? They sometimes have some amazing deals on international destinations so you never know your luck :) BTW I agree with what you and others have said about Freedom, extremely unlikely. I'm not concerned with second half but have pulled my estimate back slightly based on lower average yields and lower $Kiwi.
I'm thinking $900m - $1,000m before tax and after positive contribution from Virgin for the full FY16 year is where its at.

[Biscuit]

Could you please ask your fellow owners to give me a nice cheap price to SE Asia this next winter and my wife to Vancouver? --Thanx:)

Done! Qantas to Vancouver $942 on 1st June. Where in SE Asia?

[skid]

You signed up to the daily deals on Grabaseat skid ? They sometimes have some amazing deals on international destinations so you never know your luck :) BTW I agree with what you and others have said about Freedom, extremely unlikely. I'm not concerned with second half but have pulled my estimate back slightly based on lower average yields and lower $Kiwi.
I'm thinking $900m - $1,000m before tax and after positive contribution from Virgin for the full FY16 year is where its at.

I am sighned up (mostly for Q town)but noticed a little spiel about Thailand on the web page --so checked it out--so far ,not competitive for me but you never know what the future holds

Teeps--I dont think Chicago makes sense --normally partner airlines take over on domestic routes(I belueve somone mentioned United)
For Canada -its Air Canada(which sucks as they dont give a meal on any domestic flights(even the 6.5 hr hauls-how cheap is that for their national carrier)

[skid]

Done! Qantas to Vancouver $942 on 1st June. Where in SE Asia?

Yea!! one way or RT?--I wonder how that will work out all the way to Montreal

[Biscuit]

Yea!! one way or RT?--I wonder how that will work out all the way to Montreal

One way, sorry, but you also get to see Melbourne and LA airports!!

[Biscuit]

Yea!! one way or RT?--I wonder how that will work out all the way to Montreal

One way, sorry, but you also get to see Melbourne and LA airports!!

[Beagle]

AIR have done crazy specials to LA and Vancouver for $999 return before on grabaseat, usually in the shoulder / off season but if you are price driven and flexible with your dates then the patient puppy gets rewarded :)
Not too many specials Auckland to Queenstown :(

[skid]

One way, sorry, but you also get to see Melbourne and LA airports!!

Yuck!--lets hope AIR can do something reasonable around June (I would probably get bashed in the head for looking like a Zombie upon arrival.(especially with all the new tv shows on the subject in N America)

[skid]

AIR have done crazy specials to LA and Vancouver for $999 return before on grabaseat, usually in the shoulder / off season but if you are price driven and flexible with your dates then the patient puppy gets rewarded :)
Not too many specials Auckland to Queenstown :(

Think I saw $49 but may have been Jetstar

[Robomo]

Singapore Airlines has Scoot, Qantas has Jetstar so I wouldn't rule it out as a possibility. Maybe they could keep some of the old 767-300's they're retiring next year, (which would have basically been depreciated down to almost nothing in their books), and use them. Saw a couple of them land at the airport the other day. Amazing what a lick of new paint does to an old plane.

Flew on a 767-300 yesterday AKL-MEL; 98% full. Old Business Class seats (not lie-flat) but still comfortable and the usual excellent and friendly service. Good food too, recommend the beef. No reason why they can't keep using them for some time yet, especially if most of the Business Class pax are full-fare rather than just upgrade, as the flight attendant thought. If the demand trans-tasman / pacific islands and the occasional charter flight is there then why not continue to use them in a supplementary role if they are written down to nothing.

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/36ea84f5/nz-consumer-confidence-rises-to-6-month-high-in-november.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ+consumer+confidence+rises+to+6-month+high+in+November&utm_content=NZ+consumer+confidence+rises+to+6-month+high+in+November+CID_02a896366f55e29f3601974 0d7060aca&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle36ea84f5nz-consumer-confidence-rises-to-6-month-high-in-novemberhtml

I wonder what people will do with all their extra money when mortgage rates hit 3.99% next year.

[Beagle]

Flew on a 767-300 yesterday AKL-MEL; 98% full. Old Business Class seats (not lie-flat) but still comfortable and the usual excellent and friendly service. Good food too, recommend the beef. No reason why they can't keep using them for some time yet, especially if most of the Business Class pax are full-fare rather than just upgrade, as the flight attendant thought. If the demand trans-tasman / pacific islands and the occasional charter flight is there then why not continue to use them in a supplementary role if they are written down to nothing.

Good point mate. According to the annual report the average age of the 5 767-300's in their fleet is 19.8 years as at 30 June 2015 so nearly 21 years by next June. I know their policy is to write down aircraft on a straight line basis over 18 years so in the books they will have a value of close to zero if not so already. I guess its contingent on demand. I remember when these were state of the art new aircraft...I guess I'm getting old :eek2:

AA make a major announcement on new route so AIR get thumped so when AIR make a major announcement they should bounce higher right :t_up:

[tony64peter]

Flew on a 767-300 yesterday AKL-MEL; 98% full. Old Business Class seats (not lie-flat) but still comfortable and the usual excellent and friendly service. Good food too, recommend the beef. No reason why they can't keep using them for some time yet, especially if most of the Business Class pax are full-fare rather than just upgrade, as the flight attendant thought. If the demand trans-tasman / pacific islands and the occasional charter flight is there then why not continue to use them in a supplementary role if they are written down to nothing.

Required maintenance of 767s make them uneconomic to keep. When done with they will more than likely go to the scrap heap.

[Robomo]

Required maintenance of 767s make them uneconomic to keep. When done with they will more than likely go to the scrap heap.

Not so, read this announcement from Chris Luxon in the Australian Aviation Magazine of 9 June 2015

"Air New Zealand chief executive Christopher Luxon says the airline’s Boeing 767-300ERs are likely to remain in the fleet longer than what had been initially planned to take advantage of new flying opportunities.

The airline is expected to end 2014/15 with five 767s, with the type projected to be fully withdrawn by the end of 2017/18 according to a slide presentation accompanying the airline’s first half results presented in February.

However, Luxon says the 767s may stick around beyond that to serve the Pacific Islands, Australia and some “fly and flop” outbound NZ destinations.

“It is a real option that we have and we probably will extend them I suspect just a couple more years,” Luxon told reporters on the sidelines of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) annual general meeting in Miami on Monday.

“That’s because at the moment our capacity growth in this last six months of this year is about 12 per cent and all of next year it will be around 11 per cent.

“So we are growing fast and we are growing profitably through creating this demand and then adding the supply and the capacity that we need.”

In addition to maintaining the 767s, Air NZ also had options for six more 787-9s beyond the confirmed order for 12 of the type due for delivery between now and the end of 2018/19.

Luxon said Air NZ’s three 787-9s currently in service had performed better than the airline’s own lofty expectations."


It all comes down to cost-benefit. In these days of cheap fuel the fuel-hungry engines of the 767 don't cost as much to run so despite higher maintenance they still make a profit. I can't imagine for 1 minute that AirNZ would continue to fly them if they made a loss!

[sb9]

AA make a major announcement on new route so AIR get thumped so when AIR make a major announcement they should bounce higher right :t_up:

Expect more upsurge tomorrow on the back of that announcement.

[tim23]

A question - AIR was looking great until this weeks competition announcements on US routes, did the charts predict this because I thought the trend was looking pretty good?

[winner69]

Vietnam it is (according to Stuff)

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/73954417/air-new-zealand-expected-to-announce-new-route

[tim23]

Agree with you tim... assuming you were being ironic.... a number to hot heads on here.... Roger and co..... but it is an airline..... never invest in airlines.

A little bit but while I get the chart thing they often don't pick up good news recent example was TME when they bounced off a $3.00 low and didn't seem to see the US competition for AIR.

[black knat]

A little bit but while I get the chart thing they often don't pick up good news recent example was TME when they bounced off a $3.00 low and didn't seem to see the US competition for AIR.

No they didn't. Important reality check for some around here.

[tim23]

No they didn't. Important reality check for some around here.
Unsurprisingly not much response from the Charters I'm simply believe that share prices are driven by earnings and yields.

[tony64peter]

"all comes down to cost-benefit. In these days of cheap fuel the fuel-hungry engines of the 767 don't cost as much to run so despite higher maintenance they still make a profit. I can't imagine for 1 minute that AirNZ would continue to fly them if they made a loss!"

I think they have provided capacity flexibility whilst waiting for the delayed 787s. I'm no accountant but why would they spend 20M on major maintenance per aircraft when they will be gone in two years?

[stoploss]

Might be some more headwinds in the sector ....

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34795769

[Robomo]

"all comes down to cost-benefit. In these days of cheap fuel the fuel-hungry engines of the 767 don't cost as much to run so despite higher maintenance they still make a profit. I can't imagine for 1 minute that AirNZ would continue to fly them if they made a loss!"

I think they have provided capacity flexibility whilst waiting for the delayed 787s. I'm no accountant but why would they spend 20M on major maintenance per aircraft when they will be gone in two years?

Where did the $20 million per aircraft come from? If in fact that is true (perhaps a D check) then that would improve their resale value - there are plenty of older 767-300ER aircraft still flying (up to 27 years old) with some having been converted to freighters.

(Edit) Just checked - seems a D check takes about 50,000 man hours and cost is about 70% labour, 30% parts. Assuming charge-out rate of $100 per hour that would mean about $8 million for the most expensive D check. Where does your missing $12 million come from?

[Hoop]

Unsurprisingly not much response from the Charters I'm simply believe that share prices are driven by earnings and yields.

Tim you must read past posts..it's all there....

As long ago as 6 months.. some technical posts mentioned cracking the $3 secular resistance was going to be a big test for AIR ..remember reading posts reciting "Xerof's Bat"

OK.. I will spend time but mostly with my TA posts ..Tim don't expect others to use their valuable time to trawl through past posts..this is your job..eh?


12/2/2015....Air struggling for 2 months to crack the $2.65 resistances..BB tightening up on a non trending price, RSI negative divergence gives a slight hint that price may fall back
AIR Price $2.64 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ/page147)

Addition DISC:..On the 25th February AIR jumped +7.2% to close at $2.76 This was a start of a rally to end ($2.97) a week later failing to break the $3.00 resistance..

I had a ST holiday from Mid- February to May 2015 and didn't post during that time

18/6/2015
AIR Price $2.395c

Tomorrow needs to be a "whoop whoop pull up" day

haven't got any charts with fibs on it, but $2.25 looks 61.8%. After a BAT reversal (which came in very nicely at my $3.00 prediction, right on cue), the initial target is 61.8%. After that, you won't want to know

(http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ/page183)
7/7/2015
AIR Price $2.56
Chart showing past history drop in Oil prices had no correlation to AIR shareprice..sudden drop late 2014/early 2015 and constant low oil price since has failed to push AIR through the Bat pattern resistance $3...so AIR remains high risk...An possible explanation why low oil prices hasn't helped AIR share price..
The chart also shows the cyclical nature of AIR and the Bat pattern (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ/page191)


23/08/2015
Chart showing squeezed BB on a trendless AIR price..quote" (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ/page205)I must admit I was surprised by the TA neutrality so close to its Wed 26th August FY announcement"
(AIR price $2.70)

24/8/2015
AIR Price $2.67
A multilayered historic 1999 -2002 chart --Rosey broker forecasts with shareprice conflict...my point was ..Fundamental analysis is unreliable when cyclicals reach very low PE's

28/8/2015
AIR Price $2.49
Roger fundie V Hoop techie debate (AIR firing more sell signals)
(http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ/page206) http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Roger (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ/page210)http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=588708#post588708)
**** the technical analysis. I'm not selling. Gets much cheaper I double down.

(http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ/page210)
But Roger ...
You **** the TA when it fired a mass of sell signals 11 weeks ago at 270 when a bearish double top pattern was formed using TA (charting) discipline.

You dismissed TA (indicators) discipline when they showed bearish divergences around the $3 level 4 months ago..

You dismissed the long term TA (harmonic) discipline when it showed a possible bat formation warning 6 months ago..and later confirmed that AIR is a cyclical stock and is still behaving as one.

(http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ/page210)
28/8/2015

Getting close to the sloping H&S pattern break target area (~245)....so for me AIR goes onto my watchlist

(http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ/page210)
24/9/2015
AIR Price $2.44
chart..note mid Sept AIR price touched neckline& 2.35 support and respected it and bounced up (a positive sign on a bearish backdrop)

8/10/2015
AIR Price $$2.60
Also see Baa Baa chart
Technicals firing buy signals...The chart is showing the price rising towards resistance and the bull bear line (275) and has to break these to stop the downtrend...
I'll post a chart when I find time..

I bought some today too...but I have reservations as the NZX50 is red
(http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ/page233)
28/10/2015
AIR Price $2.95
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by winner69 http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=595434#post595434)
Today the day 3 bucks reached ....and broken?

Love these cyclical stocks ....especially when the cycle is up

Most things have same cyclical attributes in them anyway, even the so called non-cyclical things
.................................................. .................................................. ...........................................
[Hoop]..Hmmm..I wonder where Xerof's Bat is.....not the cricket bat type..:mellow:

30/10/2015
AIR Price $2.91

Roger..I hate to pop your bubble..... but in reality AIR is a cyclical stock it always has been and it always will be...that's because the airline business is a cyclical industry that is very vulnerable to economic conditions...they are also very reactive to interest rate changes.....Cyclicals are volatile and can turn on a dime...Investing in cyclicals can make you a quick fortune, unfortunately they can also wipe out your portfolio just as quick

As I said so many times on ST (many of my posts and charts on ST have been deleted!!! Hacker???) FA doesn't help you much with cyclical stocks

Ok...AIR is reaching $3 ...it's nearing the top its very steep historic price oscillation wave..it doesn't mean it will stop and reverse at $3 it could go $4 or $5 as it depends on the whereabouts of the stages of the global economic cycle and the effects of each stage e.g mature stage = economic good times = more demand = increased costs to satisfy demand + more competition = decreased market share + lower margins.....so beware and don't fall in love, because the very nature of these cyclical beasts is to exhibit growth during good times and shrink back during bad times taking back all your gains....This behaviour causes a surprising reliable share price oscillation pattern to occur (hence the term cyclical),,, it shows up very clearly on very long term charts...In the past $3 was the oscillation top end for AIR.



3/11/2015
AIR Price $2.81

Opened up 1 to 285...I would've thought yesterdays sell off was an over done considering the views by some on ST that AIR is fundamentally well under-priced....Mr Market had last night to think about yesterdays action and so far today considers AIR should still be correcting after its steep rally of +20% within the last month.

No major technical shifts... short term has fired sell signals and very close to medium term signaling....My discipline (medium term --default) says hold so I'm still holding...

3/11/2015
Chart questioning Junes bull cycle reversal to bear cycle...there was a tell tale bear cycle behaviour with a sucker rally but then with positive news AIR exhibited some bull behaviour...topping out at 2.955 shows bearish behaviour returning (red arrow) Xerof's Bat wins this round...Also debating sell signals short term signals have fired medium term signals haven't.

4/11/2015
AIR Price $2.80

Opened up 1 to 285...I would've thought yesterdays sell off was an over done considering the views by some on ST that AIR is fundamentally well under-priced....Mr Market had last night to think about yesterdays action and so far today considers AIR should still be correcting after its steep rally of +20% within the last month.

No major technical shifts... short term has fired sell signals and very close to medium term signaling....My discipline (medium term --default) says hold so I'm still holding...


Yeah I think so Couta.I'm putting some faith into AIR that its correction is just a throw back action (A psychological behaviour after a sharp breakout rally)..

AIR was definitely looking like a bear for a few months and recently, after the AGM it broke out of it's bearish mode with the good forecasts from the AIR Management..Investors don't like bears and the AGM comments did not justify a bear scenario just yet so the investors bought in and everyone who wanted in had by the end of October got in and are now satisfied...Now comes the throwback..the lack of volume (momentum) lowers the demand and the price falls back...Its not really traders taking profits that causing the price to drop because the low volume says not many are selling (or buying for that matter)..its that psychological thing.. the investors being satisfied at the moment is the problem...As the price falls due to lack of momentum these satisfied investors may be tempted to start accumulating..it will also tempt others and the price/demand increases again..Seeing this action visually on a chart, the bull/bear line breakout ($2.70/$2.75) is where that support (temptation) should start ..

S&R areas isn't an exact science...maybe the rise off $2.77 could be where the support is..maybe the bottom of the throwback is around this level...maybe a bit lower around $2.70

Now that's my thinking and with it a possible scenario with good chances of happening.. now watch Mr Market make an idiot out of me..(I sell AIR then and break even)

Disc: still holding

10/11/2015
AIR Price $2.72

.............................
DISC:...Oh!!..by the way this "nervous Nellie" sold out today (2.74) after holding the stock for a month ..made a small 4% profit..disappointing result for me...but my discipline said sell and it is a compulsory action when dealing with cyclical stocks....best of luck to the holders I hope the share price goes up

(http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ/page266)

AIR Price closed today 12th November $2.72 up 7c (+2.64%)


Disc: Portfolio 20% shares 80% cash

[pierre]

AIR flying to Ho Chi Minh in 2016. Might be good for a few cents on the SP today.

[winner69]

AIR flying to Ho Chi Minh in 2016. Might be good for a few cents on the SP today.

That Jones guy must have had real trouble convincing his fellow exec mates that is a fantastic move

Is he a genius or not?

[kyanar]

AIR have done crazy specials to LA and Vancouver for $999 return before on grabaseat, usually in the shoulder / off season but if you are price driven and flexible with your dates then the patient puppy gets rewarded :)
Not too many specials Auckland to Queenstown :(

And for us Aus residents, AIR does $949 return sale fare (G class, not grabaseat F class) to LAX/SFO. You get to pay an extra $400 to fly out of AKL, even though the flights from Aus connect there!

I'll never understand how flying an extra 5000km is somehow cheaper, but it sure seems to work for the margins!

[winner69]

Tim - did you see the up turn on the AIR chart yesterday - the signal there was to be a positive announcement today - predictive these charts eh

[777]

Tim - did you see the up turn on the AIR chart yesterday - the signal there was to be a positive announcement today - predictive these charts eh

The fact that the announcement was expected 2 days ago had nothing to do with it of course.

[Beagle]

Not so, read this announcement from Chris Luxon in the Australian Aviation Magazine of 9 June 2015

"Air New Zealand chief executive Christopher Luxon says the airline’s Boeing 767-300ERs are likely to remain in the fleet longer than what had been initially planned to take advantage of new flying opportunities.

The airline is expected to end 2014/15 with five 767s, with the type projected to be fully withdrawn by the end of 2017/18 according to a slide presentation accompanying the airline’s first half results presented in February.

However, Luxon says the 767s may stick around beyond that to serve the Pacific Islands, Australia and some “fly and flop” outbound NZ destinations.

“It is a real option that we have and we probably will extend them I suspect just a couple more years,” Luxon told reporters on the sidelines of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) annual general meeting in Miami on Monday.

“That’s because at the moment our capacity growth in this last six months of this year is about 12 per cent and all of next year it will be around 11 per cent.

“So we are growing fast and we are growing profitably through creating this demand and then adding the supply and the capacity that we need.”

In addition to maintaining the 767s, Air NZ also had options for six more 787-9s beyond the confirmed order for 12 of the type due for delivery between now and the end of 2018/19.

Luxon said Air NZ’s three 787-9s currently in service had performed better than the airline’s own lofty expectations."


It all comes down to cost-benefit. In these days of cheap fuel the fuel-hungry engines of the 767 don't cost as much to run so despite higher maintenance they still make a profit. I can't imagine for 1 minute that AirNZ would continue to fly them if they made a loss!

Well predicted mate and I always enjoy reading your insights. The seasonal Vietnam flights using 767-300's is exactly a case in point of what you were talking about yesterday.

Interesting discussion on D check costs on a 767-300, thanks for sharing.

[skid]

Unsurprisingly not much response from the Charters I'm simply believe that share prices are driven by earnings and yields.

Tim-Im no chartists as I havent put in the hard yards like some,but from where Im sitting a rather crude and simple explanation is that charts measure (not perfectly)crowd mentality(market sentiment) Everyone has a reason why they decide to take the plunge on shares and quite often is follows a pattern that correlates with the group--psychology is not an easy thing to understand -why the majority of people do what they do (which often defies logic) Charts help people to understand that sort of behavior-but as we all know human behavior can do unexpected things so charts are not foolproof--its going with the odds (usually better odds than gut feelings or what our brain sometimes tells us)--Having said that ,from my experience those in the know use both FA an TA--Often FA to identify a share and TA for entering and exiting---I reckon ,in business school there should be a course on the psychology behind market sentiment and charts
so students learn what is actually behind those squiggly lines-(Im not sure that most put enough value on the psychology's role in business)-I wish I understood it all better--next best thing is knowing who to listen to.
Those who know more may want to add or correct what Im trying to get across.

[Beagle]

Hoop - Mate you don't need to defend your record on here. It speaks for itself and others obviously agree with the amount of rep they've given you.

[skid]

And for us Aus residents, AIR does $949 return sale fare (G class, not grabaseat F class) to LAX/SFO. You get to pay an extra $400 to fly out of AKL, even though the flights from Aus connect there!

I'll never understand how flying an extra 5000km is somehow cheaper, but it sure seems to work for the margins!

That is a hard one--must be bums on seats -(Oz is where the numbers are) but its still a hard one to wrap your head around(and not be a bit p---ed off)

Gotta say ,Im a bit surprised its Viet Nam (maybe Thailand is a bit ''no go''since Thai is a partner). SE Asia is pretty stiff competition but bring it on--more the better---Hopefully there will be some good specials.

[skid]

Hoop - Mate you don't need to defend your record on here. It speaks for itself and others obviously agree with the amount of rep they've given you.

It may be a bit of that, but i think that human nature is such that we naturally want to share our knowledge.
Ive been to 3rd world countries where tuk tuk and taxi drivers or guides can hassle you to no end--but ask them a question about something(even how do i get to XX) and you can see the change come over them.A minute before they were the predator -next minute they are helping you out --I guess ''humanized''is one way to put it. People a naturally helpful deep down.--You can go to some city where people wont give you a look and ask directions and watch the change.---sorry getting a bit off topic(but we are humans first and investors second:)...

Disc-Not comparing you to a 3rd world taxi driver Hoop--just felt like a bit of a ramp involving my favorite pastimes--human nature and 3rd world countries:)

[winner69]

This is fun - up 5% in a couple of days after locking previous profits

More to come - what a week

[winner69]

and a really really strong end to the week, always a good sign

almost back to where it was last Friday

[Beagle]

Yes mate those that had the courage to fasten their seatbelt and ignore the turbulence will be feeling pretty good this evening knowing its probably smoother flying conditions from here. Looking forward to a record half year profit in February and a very juicy dividend feed...in the meantime put your feet up, relax and enjoy the flight :)

[tim23]

Hoop - thanks for the comprehensive answer and saving me all that research! Useful discussion, I just have doubts that a Chart can predict announcements that can materially affect a share price.

[Baa_Baa]

Does anyone have a recent T20 shareholders report they could share?

[tim23]

Does anyone have a recent T20 shareholders report they could share?
Not handy but the Crown is no 1!

[Hoop]

Yes a good couple of days .. ...gapped up 10c to $2.82 today above that old sucker rally resistance and strangely still hasn't fired off a buy signal with my old favourite DMI, probably due to the recent lower volume during the up days and huge volume during the down days....so I didn't re-enter....The natives seem restless, the shareprice is all over the place, so whats up Doc?

[percy]

Yes a good couple of days .. ...gapped up 10c to $2.82 today above that old sucker rally resistance and strangely still hasn't fired off a buy signal with my old favourite DMI, probably due to the recent lower volume during the up days and huge volume during the down days....so I didn't re-enter....The natives seem restless, the shareprice is all over the place, so whats up Doc?

The natives are suffering "Bi-Polar disorder".
May pay to overlay your charts with a "Moon phases calendar." ..lol.

[brend]

Yes mate those that had the courage to fasten their seatbelt and ignore the turbulence will be feeling pretty good this evening knowing its probably smoother flying conditions from here. Looking forward to a record half year profit in February and a very juicy dividend feed...in the meantime put your feet up, relax and enjoy the flight :)

I couldn't help myself yesterday and accumulated another 32% :)

AIR has a pretty clear strategy in enhancing customer experience. To me that starts at the airport, so the investment in upgrading lounges apart from new planes really completes the package.

The growth in the airpoints scheme has been huge this year retaining customers to continue flying with AIR to access the some perks.

Its also good AIR aligned itself with the hobbit and the AB's - Americans can relate with that and hopefully a bad experience with AA in the past will make them fly with AIR as a first choice.

[Hoop]

Hoop - thanks for the comprehensive answer and saving me all that research! Useful discussion, I just have doubts that a Chart can predict announcements that can materially affect a share price.

Hi Tim...Charts are not perfect predictors and aren't really designed for that.....We Chartists use crystal balls for our predicting ;):D

Charts are reasonably good at picking up subtle investor behavioural changes and when it happens at say pre-announcement time it catches the chartist's attention..
At this stage the Chartist turns detective and tries to sort out if that investor behavioural change is:...
1....mostly due to possible insider trading (legal ones:)and illegal ones:mad ;:) and privileged released researched data stuff to clients ...which is a very good signal......
.....or....
2....a not so good signal..e.g when the company's shareholders are mostly the "excitable/emotional investor" type that speculates/worries, punts..
...and....
3....sometimes the Market and Chartist alike are taken completely by surprise e.g when TA can't detect anything (there is no investor behavioural change) such as an out of favour companies which are completely leak proof.

You get to know which companies are which (consistent historic behaviour)..so using TA detection with these certain companies around announcement times is usually a good bet :D

As for AIR...It's difficult for me to understand...It's volatility is its only constant and why should that be?... looking at the shareholder list at least 90% of the shares issued are "managed"

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/AIR%20shareholders%20list%202015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/AIR%20shareholders%20list%202015.png.html)

[Hoop]

The natives are suffering "Bi-Polar disorder".
May pay to overlay your charts with a "Moon phases calendar." ..lol.

Good idea Percy...that "fluid" 10% shareholders could all be lunatics ..present ST member shareholders excluded of course ;)...

As crazy as it sounds..there was a research paper published a few years back which studied that very subject..even more surprising was the fact that they found a correlation between moon phases and share investing behaviour....go figure:D

Well Percy, here's the chart..kinda freaky..eh?:)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/AIR%20lunar%2013112015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/AIR%20lunar%2013112015.png.html)

[percy]

"Many a true word is spoken in jest."
I have just checked when the next "full moon" is due.
Looks to be the 25th,26th,and 27th of this month.
Will watch with interest.
And yes very freaky...

[iceman]

I couldn't help myself yesterday and accumulated another 32% :)


The growth in the airpoints scheme has been huge this year retaining customers to continue flying with AIR to access the some perks.


Hi brend. I woulld like to know how much of the growh in Airpoints scheme you refer to is from travelers using AIR. I suggest most of it is from people that actually never fly but get Airpoints from credit cards and FlyBuys !
A few years ago this became a real issue for AIR as frequent flyers found it very difficult to use their points because so many non frequent flyers were taking up the allocated seats. AIR responded by turning it into Airpoints Dollars which in my view makes it one of the best air rewards scheme in the World. I belong to a few but AIR without a doubt has the best and most easy to use scheme.

[Marilyn Munroe]

I recall reading that only a small percentage of air points are ever redeemed.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[skid]

Im going to go out on a limb here and say that airpoints and lounges are a very miner player in what determines if an airline is successful-it may influence some businessmen and big spenders but there is a reason that most of the plane is taken up with economy seats.
IMO price and convenience are the biggies.
Soom will look at price first and run with it--but there is also a big slice (especially those getting on) that will pay more to avoid sitting in some airport for 6 hrs in the middle of the night with a flight that ends up taking 24hrs instead of 11 (thats where i am at now)--(when I look on webjet or some booking site and see a cheap price but then notice it takes 35hrs instead of 12 I just exit.

They are estimating that the flight to Viet nam is going to be around $1200--Assuming that its a decent schedule (direct would be great)thats a pretty reasonable price.

Meanwhile -Is it possible to have the biggest fall and the biggest gain in the same week in the weekend herald business section?:p

[gv1]

"Many a true word is spoken in jest."
I have just checked when the next "full moon" is due.
Looks to be the 25th,26th,and 27th of this month.
Will watch with interest.
And yes very freaky...

Yeah freaky alright, 27 is thanks giving day...most predict fall!!!

[percy]

Yeah freaky alright, 27 is thanks giving day...most predict fall!!!

Nice to know they are wrong.!
Have just double checked Moon Phases Calendar, and Northern Hemisphere also have a full moon on the 27th November.
Will need confirmation from The Tea Lady that the tea leaves line up before it is a 100% guaranteed.
Stars lined up,Tea leaves confirming,looks as though we are "well positioned."

[winner69]

[QUOTE=skid;597443]Im going to go out on a limb here and say that airpoints and lounges are a very miner player in what determines if an airline is successful-.......p[/QUOTE

]Skid, I agree

Air travel (ie airlines) have ecomea commodity.

I kept this quote a while ago (forgot who said it) but it sums up the issue quite nicely -

We refuse to reward airlines by paying more for things like good service, nicer planes, quieter terminals, or shorter lines…. [B]ut then feeling indignant and wronged when the service inevitably fails to meet expectations.

[skid]

Nice to know they are wrong.!
Have just double checked Moon Phases Calendar, and Northern Hemisphere also have a full moon on the 27th November.
Will need confirmation from The Tea Lady that the tea leaves line up before it is a 100% guaranteed.
Stars lined up,Tea leaves confirming,looks as though we are "well positioned."

''and the Northern Hemisphere also have a full moon on 27 November'':eek2:

[Jantar]

''and the Northern Hemisphere also have a full moon on 27 November'':eek2:
But their moon is upside down :confused:

[gv1]

Nice to know they are wrong.!
Have just double checked Moon Phases Calendar, and Northern Hemisphere also have a full moon on the 27th November.
Will need confirmation from The Tea Lady that the tea leaves line up before it is a 100% guaranteed.
Stars lined up,Tea leaves confirming,looks as though we are "well positioned."


:t_up::t_up::D:D:D

[kyanar]

AIR responded by turning it into Airpoints Dollars which in my view makes it one of the best air rewards scheme in the World. I belong to a few but AIR without a doubt has the best and most easy to use scheme.

Frequent Flyers the world over frequently lambast AIR as having literally the worst FF scheme on the planet.

[gv1]

60 dead, 100 held hostage as Paris gripped by terror...I wonder what effects this will have.

[pierre]

Frequent Flyers the world over frequently lambast AIR as having literally the worst FF scheme on the planet.

Really? Where can we read comments that support your statement?

I find Airpoints a really good scheme and it's easy to use. I can use my Airpoints Dollars to purchase any seat on the plane - or to upgrade. If I don't have enough points I can purchase more.
I also earn Airpoints Dollars and status points on my credit card purchases. I'm a regular flyer so am now Gold Elite status which gives me free Koru Club membership and the ability to purchase guaranteed upgrades at minimal cost e.g. travel to the USA - upgrade from economy to PE for 220 A Dollars or PE to Business for 480 A Dollars.

I'm currently running an incentive programme for my business which offers Airpoints Dollars as prizes - the monthly winners have been ecstatic to receive a top up to their Airpoints accounts.

AIR has also recently commenced an Airpoints for Business programme as well.

I'm very happy with AIR's FF programme and I'm sure they are too!

[skid]

Really? Where can we read comments that support your statement?

I find Airpoints a really good scheme and it's easy to use. I can use my Airpoints Dollars to purchase any seat on the plane - or to upgrade. If I don't have enough points I can purchase more.
I also earn Airpoints Dollars and status points on my credit card purchases. I'm a regular flyer so am now Gold Elite status which gives me free Koru Club membership and the ability to purchase guaranteed upgrades at minimal cost e.g. travel to the USA - upgrade from economy to PE for 220 A Dollars or PE to Business for 480 A Dollars.

I'm currently running an incentive programme for my business which offers Airpoints Dollars as prizes - the monthly winners have been ecstatic to receive a top up to their Airpoints accounts.

AIR has also recently commenced an Airpoints for Business programme as well.

I'm very happy with AIR's FF programme and I'm sure they are too!

what % of customers do businessmen make up I wonder

[skid]

60 dead, 100 held hostage as Paris gripped by terror...I wonder what effects this will have.

Here we go again..Terrorists will be condemned--but innocent people will die,on both sides.

France have closed their borders--Time will tell if this spooks air travel or the markets in general

[iceman]

Frequent Flyers the world over frequently lambast AIR as having literally the worst FF scheme on the planet.

Do you use it and do you agree that it is bad ? I think it is great, both with accumulation and redemption

[Joshuatree]

Never used it myself , one less card to worry about and never liked having to go to specific shops to get points esp when something is cheaper elsewhere and /or closer = less driving less fuel less time..Shoppingis supposed to be liberating not controlled.And its built into the price of the goods.

[pierre]

You can shop anywhere and get points for your purchases if you hold an Airpoints earning credit card. I charge everything to my card and pay in full at month-end. No interest paid but Airpoints Dollars and status points earned.
Of course, whether it's worthwhile or not depends on how much you spend over a year.

[Robomo]

Never used it myself , one less card to worry about and never liked having to go to specific shops to get points esp when something is cheaper elsewhere and /or closer = less driving less fuel less time..Shoppingis supposed to be liberating not controlled.And its built into the price of the goods.

So I fill up at Z, get airpoints on my flybuys and pay with my Westpac Credit Card that rewards me with more airpoints. Fill up at BP get discount on my AA card. If I don't use the flybuys or AA cards I get no discount at all, I'm simply giving money to the petrol station owners. Like it or not if you buy a lot of stuff then you may as well get the various discounts and rewards if the price of the goods is the same elsewhere. Just pay off your
credit Card each month!

I use Travelcard for my airtravel, it costs no more and AirNZ reward me with upgrades or goods, I don't pay the CC surcharge and don't have to pay for flights until next month. Most of my travel is business so now AirNZ reward me with more airpoints dollars for being loyal and that costs me nothing. I always have two heavy bags for work and being an Elite Gold traveller AirNZ reward me by not charging extra bag fees and letting me use the lounge without paying Koru Club fees. All this for simply being a loyal customer! Just about all my travel is business related so it's tax deductible and when I use airpoints for private travel it costs me nothing (except the outrageous taxes and other govt fees). Yes, it might be slightly cheaper (in cash terms) to fly Jetstar to limited destinations but the convenience of frequent flights to everywhere and added comfort and bonuses of using AirNZ means I am one of AirNZ's most loyal customers. They win, I win. Do I use loyalty cards? Too right!

[Robomo]

Frequent Flyers the world over frequently lambast AIR as having literally the worst FF scheme on the planet.

Perhaps you could enlighten us with some references? I don't see anything on Flyertalk.com that would support your statement and this site is probably the best known of the Frequent Flyer Blog sites.

[iceman]

Perhaps you could enlighten us with some references? I don't see anything on Flyertalk.com that would support your statement and this site is probably the best known of the Frequent Flyer Blog sites.

Wouldn't hold my breath Robomo as he/she will not be able to support his/hers statement. Most frequent flyers of which I am one, will agree Air NZ has a very good scheme that is particularly easy to redeem.

[skid]

Wouldn't hold my breath Robomo as he/she will not be able to support his/hers statement. Most frequent flyers of which I am one, will agree Air NZ has a very good scheme that is particularly easy to redeem.

I think we can agree that for businessmen air NZ with its points etc is good--But does it attract the general public? One way or the other ,you might as well get the airpoints.(but im not sure people will choose AIR over a more competitive airline with as good of service just for the air points)
I personally come out better with just the cashback on Visa-for me cash is king +I get free insurance if I pay for at least half my ticket (and Im not restricted to any airline)--just upgraded to Visa platnium as they give longer travel insurance.(90 days)-only catch is that there is a service charge for using visa but its small compared to travel insurance costs)--Of course i pay it off each month--There are plenty apparently who dont and therefore finance my advantages.

In a nutshell--There are certainly loyal customers,but its the other 90% they need to fight for IMO

[Joshuatree]

Gull is always the cheapest by far here and no loyalty cards etc yay. Just think of all the information your cards are collecting about you.:t_down:

[skid]

Yep todays world can get spooky sometimes---My daughter sent me a happy 65th on gmail and on the side was an ad for facelift plastic surgery! (have you ever noticed how all the ageing movie stars in LA have that sort of Chinese look stretched look these days:)

actually I should put this little guy:mellow: as thats about as far as they can smile after all the surgery

[Bjauck]

60 dead, 100 held hostage as Paris gripped by terror...I wonder what effects this will have.
As far as the flying public and AIR is concerned, the Russian plane crash in the Sinai is significant especially If terrorists have found ways of destroying planes that can (currently) escape security detection. The Russian crash and the Paris slaughters underline the importance of the international co-operation of intelligence services such as UKUSA Five Eyes.

Suicide bombing campaigns in rich Western countries may become economically significant if the public becomes fearful and reduces its activity in the economy including reducing the time spent travelling.

Remember even in the year 2001 when 9/11 happened in the USA you were more likely to be killed and maimed in the USA by other means: 42196 were killed in American road accidents; 2990 were killed by terrorists; 29573 were killed by gun violence.

[Joshuatree]

I hear they may be passing laws re no cigarette smoking in homes over there....... Smoking Guns are fine:mellow:

[Robomo]

Remember even in the year 2001 when 9/11 happened in the USA you were more likely to be killed and maimed in the USA by other means: 42196 were killed in American road accidents; 2990 were killed by terrorists; 29573 were killed by gun violence.

And in 2013 gun violence killed 33,636 in the USA, an increase of over 4,000 (or 14%) since 2001

[iceman]

I have just tried to book AIR flights for myself, my wife and 2 of our teenage children to Samoa in February. If I book online on the AIR website from Nelson to Apia, it costs $977 each for Works tickets.
BUT, if I book the domestic Nelson-Auckland separately, I can buy the flights for $ 875 ( a saving of $ 408). Could also save another $50 per return ticket by flying Jetstar Nelson-Auckland but not worth it. Roger, this shows you clearly once again how AIR rips off the people that live outside of Auckland-Christchurch-Wellington.
AIR really is a company that deliberately fleeces people that live in regional New Zealand. I am a big supporter of AIR but the more I encounter this sort of rubbish, the more likely I am to choose to move all my travel to another airline.

[Robomo]

I have just tried to book AIR flights for myself, my wife and 2 of our teenage children to Samoa in February. If I book online on the AIR website from Nelson to Apia, it costs $977 each for Works tickets.
BUT, if I book the domestic Nelson-Auckland separately, I can buy the flights for $ 717 ( a saving of $ 1,040). Could also save another $50 by flying Jetstar Nelson-Auckland but not worth it. Roger, this shows you clearly once again how AIR rips off the people that live outside of Auckland-Christchurch-Wellington.
AIR really is a company that deliberately fleeces people that live in regional New Zealand. I am a big supporter of AIR but the more I encounter this sort of rubbish, the more likely I am to choose to move all my travel to another airline.

Checked your figures Iceman and your Nelson-Apia-Nelson fare of $977 is correct. You then quote a per person separate fare of $717 but this is only Auckland-Apia-Auckland. You forgot to add the Nelson-Auckland-Nelson fare as well, which adds another $238 ($162 on Jetstar).

The total is thus $955, $22 cheaper than the Nelson-Apia-Nelson fare.
BUT, don't forget that if there is a delay on the NSN-AKL sector and you miss your Apia flight then you've lost your money as ANZ are not responsible for missed connections where you have made the booking as two separate journeys (Nelson-Auckland, then Auckland-Apia) rather than one journey (Nelson-Apia). If you book Nelson-Apia as one journey and you miss your connection in Auckland for reasons beyond your control (weather, mechanical, flight delay etc) then ANZ would put you up for the night, feed you and transfer you to the next flight without penalty. The same also applies to the return journey. Thus the $22 difference can be seen as 'insurance'.

You have done ANZ a disservice in your post and I hope you now acknowledge your mistake and correct your statement that ANZ is fleecing people in the regions. Roger would also appreciate an apology.

[skid]

I have just tried to book AIR flights for myself, my wife and 2 of our teenage children to Samoa in February. If I book online on the AIR website from Nelson to Apia, it costs $977 each for Works tickets.
BUT, if I book the domestic Nelson-Auckland separately, I can buy the flights for $ 717 ( a saving of $ 1,040). Could also save another $50 by flying Jetstar Nelson-Auckland but not worth it. Roger, this shows you clearly once again how AIR rips off the people that live outside of Auckland-Christchurch-Wellington.
AIR really is a company that deliberately fleeces people that live in regional New Zealand. I am a big supporter of AIR but the more I encounter this sort of rubbish, the more likely I am to choose to move all my travel to another airline.

They are just looking after their profits--Others will fill the vacuum which may or may not be good for AIR--They are -''going where the money is''--the danger of course is more may feel like you and the ''others'' (jetstar) get more and more accepted and known.
Its a delicate balance between going for ultimate profits, and providing a service and looking after your clientele.
only posters who have looked at AIR inside out for days on end will stick with them forever--flying customers will change airlines at the drop of a hat(or a drop of a price)

Meanwhile if this madness spreads at all outside of France we will see how airlines are cyclical in nature.(some more than others)--All those wonderful specials to Europe.

I feel sorry of course for the French (Europeans) caught up in this--but I feel even sorrier for freedom .Little by little its going down the gurgler.

We can only guess what state things would be if they(USA)hadnt gone over in the first place for all that oil $$ (especially the 2nd time)

Your right about the odds Bjuack--thats why they resort to especially brutal measures--a beheading has much more impact than 50 people (families) killed by an iron fragment bomb dropped from a drone---its the only way they can compete.
Im very upset with JK for involving us in the mix(SAS)--we are well away from the carnage but it would be a hellava statement to show no one is safe. Why in the world did we get involved? look at the mess that has been created--(keep in mind that most of that sort of thing (suicide bombings) happen to Muslims. ...sorry for the rant,but it could have an affect on AIR


PS--we emailed friends in Paris we met traveling--they said they are ok but everyone is scared sh-tless to go anywhere.

[Robomo]

Skid - In view of my reply to Iceman, perhaps you would consider modifying your post?

[winner69]

No more talk about whether AIR frequent flyer scheme is crap or not - let's get back on topic of trading AIR shares

That $3 mark is a psychological resistance barrier that's been there for more than 10 years. They are powerful things and punters often underestimate that

However this time around it is to be broken .... and soon. The fundamentals (nearly a $1 billion earnings this year) support this

Furthermore the pressure is building - look at that wedge in the bottom chart. the gap from each new low to $3 is getting smaller. The odds are that the price will break through the resistance of $3 next time (or maybe the one after that). The good book on TA says so.

And then remember what was once strong resistance becomes strong support - once through this resistance $3 won't be seen for a while (goodness knows what happens when the cycle turns, don't forget AIR is a cyclical stock)

AIR above $3 is a certainty ... and sooner than later. Just shows what a good buy it was at around $2.65/$2.66 the other day was

Tim - charts are not 'predictive' per se but they do give powerful signals as to what probably may happen in the future






A

[iceman]

Robomo you were right about one thing and that is I put in the wrong number about booking separately. $ 717 was indeed only Auckland-Apia. But I can get the domestic leg return for $158 which makes is just on $100 cheaper per person. All flights that would not have any risk of missing Samoa flight. We have noticed this many times when flying with AIR, i.e. that we get significantly cheaper fares by booking domestic legs separately. So the point I was making stands. I am just suggesting people be aware of this if booking tickets from regional NZ. AIR is not our friend.

[Beagle]

Checked your figures Iceman and your Nelson-Apia-Nelson fare of $977 is correct. You then quote a per person separate fare of $717 but this is only Auckland-Apia-Auckland. You forgot to add the Nelson-Auckland-Nelson fare as well, which adds another $238 ($162 on Jetstar).

The total is thus $955, $22 cheaper than the Nelson-Apia-Nelson fare.
BUT, don't forget that if there is a delay on the NSN-AKL sector and you miss your Apia flight then you've lost your money as ANZ are not responsible for missed connections where you have made the booking as two separate journeys (Nelson-Auckland, then Auckland-Apia) rather than one journey (Nelson-Apia). If you book Nelson-Apia as one journey and you miss your connection in Auckland for reasons beyond your control (weather, mechanical, flight delay etc) then ANZ would put you up for the night, feed you and transfer you to the next flight without penalty. The same also applies to the return journey. Thus the $22 difference can be seen as 'insurance'.

You have done ANZ a disservice in your post and I hope you now acknowledge your mistake and correct your statement that ANZ is fleecing people in the regions. Roger would also appreciate an apology.

Thanks Robomo I appreciate the effort you have gone too in correcting Iceman's mistake and the points you make about missed connections and AIR covering you in that regard are extremely well made.
The other things are that you get what you pay for in life. Flying the other day to Napier, free tea or coffee, free decent sized biscuit, free water, and lollie on decent into Napier to help with changes in air pressure with descending altitude. That's service from a polite and engaging air hostess three times during a 50 minute flight and all while flying on a shiny new ATR600 aircraft.

On a one hour twenty minute flight from Napier in an extremely old Q300 Jetstar aircraft you'll get no service whatsoever unless you pay extra...(in my experience you'll be lucky if you get a smile from the dour crew who one would assume are generally predisposed that way because they'd prefer to work for a better airline).

The France thing is horrific, no question...and I would hesitate to suggest we should in any way want to profit from that but to be honest, if anything, in terms of relative destination choice for tourists it makes tourism to this safe and clean part of the world all the more attractive I would have thought.

[Joshuatree]

Air NZ has been fleecing us for a long time in the provincial centres no doubt about that. Competition is good for business and us; i for one don't care about bikkies and tea for the short time in the Air. A high % of Flyers will be going on price; yes even Roger the multi post Jetheap knocker.

[Baa_Baa]

The cheapest Air fare (carry on only) from Paraparaumu to Auckland at $279 one way(!) $558 return is terrific for shareholders, the plane will be packed full and returning a nice profit on the way to $1bn in 2017. Besides, the fare is tax deductable for the majority of travellers on that route who are on business, so another benefit from Air, minimising our company tax and enhancing NZ Inc profitability.
✈️🤑

[Crackity]

Air NZ has been fleecing us for a long time in the provincial centres no doubt about that. Competition is good for business and us; i for one don't care about bikkies and tea for the short time in the Air. A high % of Flyers will be going on price; yes even Roger the multi post Jetheap knocker.

Fleecing is not designated Air NZ jargon ( except for Baa of course ) - the correct term is enhanced passenger yield....:)

[winner69]

Hi Tim...Charts are not perfect predictors and aren't really designed for that.....We Chartists use crystal balls for our predicting ;):D

Charts are reasonably good at picking up subtle investor behavioural changes and when it happens at say pre-announcement time it catches the chartist's attention..
At this stage the Chartist turns detective and tries to sort out if that investor behavioural change is:...
1....mostly due to possible insider trading (legal ones:)and illegal ones:mad ;:) and privileged released researched data stuff to clients ...which is a very good signal......
.....or....
2....a not so good signal..e.g when the company's shareholders are mostly the "excitable/emotional investor" type that speculates/worries, punts..
...and....
3....sometimes the Market and Chartist alike are taken completely by surprise e.g when TA can't detect anything (there is no investor behavioural change) such as an out of favour companies which are completely leak proof.

You get to know which companies are which (consistent historic behaviour)..so using TA detection with these certain companies around announcement times is usually a good bet :D

As for AIR...It's difficult for me to understand...It's volatility is its only constant and why should that be?... looking at the shareholder list at least 90% of the shares issued are "managed"

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/AIR%20shareholders%20list%202015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/AIR%20shareholders%20list%202015.png.html)

Are any of those top 98 (those listed plus Roger and Couts) buying big time or selling out? Probably not as contented with their lot at the moment.

So the 'volatility' is really all those small shareholders who hold less than5% of the company just playing around (probably those nasty trader types)

[winner69]

I always wondered what it meant when Luxon said something along the lines that AIR would proactively provide access to next-generation niche markets

I get it now - it is all about our man Jones coming up with all these new routes - he a genius that guy. You talk to him at ASM Roger?

[Zaphod]

Robomo you were right about one thing and that is I put in the wrong number about booking separately. $ 717 was indeed only Auckland-Apia. But I can get the domestic leg return for $158 which makes is just on $100 cheaper per person. All flights that would not have any risk of missing Samoa flight. We have noticed this many times when flying with AIR, i.e. that we get significantly cheaper fares by booking domestic legs separately. So the point I was making stands. I am just suggesting people be aware of this if booking tickets from regional NZ. AIR is not our friend.

Without derailing this thread any further, comparisons between booking domestic legs separately and as part of an international journey are fraught with difficulty.

An international Works Deluxe produce is similar to domestic Flexi Plus product (2x bags, flexibility etc.) which is why airlines use similar fare-buckets for a domestic sector culminating with an international sector. This is an industry standard across all airlines.

You will however often see special domestic add-on fares for $50 or $100 from AirNZ during sales periods.

[Zaphod]

Are any of those top 98 (those listed plus Roger and Couts) buying big time or selling out? Probably not as contented with their lot at the moment.

So the 'volatility' is really all those small shareholders who hold less than5% of the company just playing around (probably those nasty trader types)

Aside from the odd re-balancing by a fund, most of the trades probably do come from those holding perhaps even just 2.91% of the total number of shares. Situation normal I guess!

DISC: I'm not amongst the top 96 holders.

[Robomo]

The cheapest Air fare (carry on only) from Paraparaumu to Auckland at $279 one way(!) $558 return is terrific for shareholders, the plane will be packed full and returning a nice profit on the way to $1bn in 2017. Besides, the fare is tax deductable for the majority of travellers on that route who are on business, so another benefit from Air, minimising our company tax and enhancing NZ Inc profitability.
✈️🤑

Oh dear, another gross exaggeration. You don't quote any dates for your "cheapest airfare of $558 return" so I've looked at three dates 16 November 2015, 16 December 2015, 16 February 2016. Typical 1 day business trip carry-on only; out in the morning, back at night (easy as there are usually only 2 flights a day for Paraparaumu - Auckland).

16 November (tomorrow) $518 return
16 December (1 month from now) $403 return
16 February (3 months from now) $248 return (Auckland - Paraparaumu return this day is $118 return)

So, Baa Baa where did you get your $558 figure from and why do you not qualify it as being on just one day (assuming that you are correct and that this fare actually exists somewhere)?

Being critical of a company is fine but if you going to quote examples then make sure they are correct and not plucked out of thin air. Your quote of "cheapest airfare {of} $558 return" is obviously badly wrong and needs your acknowledgement and correction.

[Robomo]

Without derailing this thread any further, comparisons between booking domestic legs separately and as part of an international journey are fraught with difficulty.

An international Works Deluxe produce is similar to domestic Flexi Plus product (2x bags, flexibility etc.) which is why airlines use similar fare-buckets for a domestic sector culminating with an international sector. This is an industry standard across all airlines.

You will however often see special domestic add-on fares for $50 or $100 from AirNZ during sales periods.

Correct Zaphod. I understand the point that Iceman is trying to make, it's the spin he puts on it that annoys me.

Yes, it might be cheaper to book two separate fares but to say that there is no risk of missing the Samoa flight is wrong. Anything can happen, and does happen. I fly multiple sectors about 50 times a year (Auckland-Invercargill, Auckland-Hobart etc) and about 2% of the time I've been rescheduled and 1% of the time I've been put up overnight and rescheduled. No cost to me and I've been well looked after. On international flights I've been put up overnight in Melbourne and Sydney and once transferred to Qantas to get me home same day.

You can mitigate your risk by leaving 24 hours+ between flights but in Iceman's case that means spending a day and night in Auckland - so add accommodation plus the damage to your Credit Card spending all day browsing the shops at Sylvia Park (just kidding!). Seriously though if you take out travel insurance, read the fine print as you may find they insist on 24 hours or more between unconnected flights.

[Beagle]

I always wondered what it meant when Luxon said something along the lines that AIR would proactively provide access to next-generation niche markets
I get it now - it is all about our man Jones coming up with all these new routes - he a genius that guy. You talk to him at ASM Roger?

No but I saw him on the news the other night. He struck me as a highly astute and articulate chap. I did have a good chat to another one of the team involved in establishing the Bounes Aires route at the annual meeting and he told me it was quite an interesting place to do business...among other things.

Honestly folks the whole "AIR has been ripping us off on domestic flights thing" is getting shrill, a little OTT and very old IMO. Some people used to bleat like lambs lost from their mothers that AIR was ripping us off something chronic with their short distance regional flights on the twin engine / two pilot Beech 1900d 19 seater aircraft..honestly it was so incredibly tiresome and then finally AIR answered their criticism emphatically by withdrawing services and winding down the use of that aircraft which was in fact costing the company one million dollars a month in losses !! Now those same people are flying inferior / slower / older aircraft, sometimes single engine / single pilot operations and probably have no idea whatsoever of the implied extra risk in each and every flight. The funny thing is you never hear them come back and say, opps, sorry folks, we were wrong and I apologise for misleading everyone on here do you !

We are fortunate to have a quality airline that serves many smaller cities and larger towns in N.Z. as well as the larger cities and major tourism towns. AIR's substantial investment in another 15 brand new ATR600 aircraft the other day shows they're committed to providing a top quality flight experience on quality aircraft and they have one of the youngest fleets in the industry at only 7.5 years average age. If people feel they're better off flying Jetstar's old extremely cramped A320's with the tightest 29 inch seat pitch in the entire industry and relic unsellable old Q300's or Ewan Wilson's 30 year old MOTAT era Saab 340 then good luck to you but I think I speak for most AIr N.Z. shareholders when I say we don't need to hear about it every five minutes for goodness sake. Contrary to a disingenuous and erroneous suggestion on the previous page by Joshuatree, I flew Jetstar only once this year on a one way flight to Chrischurch. I did this because someone else was paying the bill, it was a school holiday's and they were very price conscious and AIR's plane at that time on that day happened to be significantly more expensive, (not always the case by any means).

Getting back to business, (yes let's), as you've suggested Winner. Yes the company is incredibly well positioned and a re-test of the $3 glass ceiling is likely sooner rather than later. I'm picking $900m - $1,000m before tax inclusive of Virgin's contribution for FY16. I believe the profit this year will go close or maybe even over doubling last year's profit, (itself an all time record). I guess its more than fair to say shareholders are extremely well positioned :)

I would respectfully remind the naysayers that AIR N.Z. won the company of the year award at last year's Deloitte Top 200 company awards and that our Chairman Tony Carter won Chairperson of the year award. Jan Dawson deputy chair was a partner in KPMG for 30 years and was Chief executive from 2006 to 2011 and won the Chartered Accountant of the year award in 2011.
If people think winning these sort of premier N.Z. business awards are easy, think again.

[skid]

No more talk about whether AIR frequent flyer scheme is crap or not - let's get back on topic of trading AIR shares

That $3 mark is a psychological resistance barrier that's been there for more than 10 years. They are powerful things and punters often underestimate that

However this time around it is to be broken .... and soon. The fundamentals (nearly a $1 billion earnings this year) support this

Furthermore the pressure is building - look at that wedge in the bottom chart. the gap from each new low to $3 is getting smaller. The odds are that the price will break through the resistance of $3 next time (or maybe the one after that). The good book on TA says so.

And then remember what was once strong resistance becomes strong support - once through this resistance $3 won't be seen for a while (goodness knows what happens when the cycle turns, don't forget AIR is a cyclical stock)

AIR above $3 is a certainty ... and sooner than later. Just shows what a good buy it was at around $2.65/$2.66 the other day was

Tim - charts are not 'predictive' per se but they do give powerful signals as to what probably may happen in the future






A

Winner..not not going to jinx it again are you? The more superstitious posters must have cringed when they read that :):)

[winner69]

Winner..not not going to jinx it again are you? The more superstitious posters must have cringed when they read that :):)

If I did jinx it last time I not complaining - gave me chance to take profits and then start all over again.

Thankfully in the month or so I have had AIR one of their planes hasn't crashed and killed hundreds - always been afraid of tempting fate but obviously no need to worry.

[Baa_Baa]

Oh dear, another gross exaggeration. You don't quote any dates for your "cheapest airfare of $558 return" so I've looked at three dates 16 November 2015, 16 December 2015, 16 February 2016. Typical 1 day business trip carry-on only; out in the morning, back at night (easy as there are usually only 2 flights a day for Paraparaumu - Auckland).

16 November (tomorrow) $518 return
16 December (1 month from now) $403 return
16 February (3 months from now) $248 return (Auckland - Paraparaumu return this day is $118 return)

So, Baa Baa where did you get your $558 figure from and why do you not qualify it as being on just one day (assuming that you are correct and that this fare actually exists somewhere)?

Being critical of a company is fine but if you going to quote examples then make sure they are correct and not plucked out of thin air. Your quote of "cheapest airfare {of} $558 return" is obviously badly wrong and needs your acknowledgement and correction.

Gee you had me worried, that my glasses might need checking.

But no I checked my itinerary ... $229 out on the cheapest flight at 6:50am (could pay $289 with luggage, $309 flexitime, $329 flexi-day). Same back 6:05pm! I though my PA might need a tune-up, but she's onto it as well after I checked the AirNZ bookings website, she got me to AK and back at the cheapest fare, and we don't have another airline for alternatives. (By the way, the return cheap flight is now $299! What a difference a few days make.)

So maybe what you've assumed is that I'm out and back same day. But I'm not, I said "Paraparaumu to Auckland at $279 one way(!)" ... "$558 return" (that's the total if you're struggling with the maths). Air NZ calls it "Select your flight to Auckland" .. "Select your return flight to Kapiti Coast", both booked at the same time. = out and return flights = $558! Geez, that's almost 3/4 of the way to some tropical paradise.

Look I don't know what your problem is robomo or why you're so defensive about it, but for shareholders you should be rejoicing at the Air regional routes who have no competition and none planned, are where the company can pretty much charge any price it likes. Add a bit of competition and hey presto, they scalp the price big time.

Just be happy that some backwaters like Paraparaumu -> Auckland can still demand the outrageous prices and profits that AirNZ has become synonymous with on it's uncontested regional routes.

And don't tell me I'm wrong unless you're absolutely sure about your facts. No apology needed.

[brend]

Hi brend. I woulld like to know how much of the growh in Airpoints scheme you refer to is from travelers using AIR. I suggest most of it is from people that actually never fly but get Airpoints from credit cards and FlyBuys !

""Membership of Air New Zealand's loyalty programme, Airpoints, was up 17 per cent at 1.9 million, with Australia the biggest overseas group of members, up 20 per cent in the year, Luxon said."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/71456978/Air-New-Zealand-to-grow-domestic-operation-offer-more-cheap-flights

then you have this....http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/72966932/Platinum-cards-tarnished-in-discount-war

[Beagle]

""Membership of Air New Zealand's loyalty programme, Airpoints, was up 17 per cent at 1.9 million, with Australia the biggest overseas group of members, up 20 per cent in the year, Luxon said."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/71456978/Air-New-Zealand-to-grow-domestic-operation-offer-more-cheap-flights

then you have this....http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/72966932/Platinum-cards-tarnished-in-discount-war

Good on you for taking the opportunity to increase your shareholding recently mate.

Interesting segment this one from consumer N.Z.

"When we deducted the cost of annual fees to get the net value, eight cards resulted in a negative return."

I have an ANZ cash back card which gives you 50 cents cash back per $100 spent once you trigger $5,000 per annum card spend and $1.00 cash back per $100 spent once you are over $10,000 per annum but the catch is the $60 annual card fee so you've got to be spending over $10,000 per annum before you even accrue $40 net benefit. There's also all the other usual fish hooks like late payment fees, 21% standard interest rate e.t.c.e.t.c. none of which concern me as I always pay my card off in full each month. This has been my primary "go to" card for many years but I was recently offered the platinum Amex card and my daughter offered a standard American express Airpoints card.

Funnily enough when I compared the two I decided to go with the regular run of the mill standard American express airpoints card for two reasons. 1. Flashing gold or titanium cards when you spend is of no interest whatsoever to me. I know where I'm at financially in life and couldn't care less what other people think. 2. There's no annual card fees (ever) and its a simple reward system of 1 Airpoint for every $100 spent with no minimum or maximum spend per annum. I think there's a 50 airpoints welcome bonus once you've spent $300, (already clocked up this weekend LOL)..anyway this new card seems puuurrrrfect, (Cat put intended) :) I knew I could take advantage of the platinum first year incentive and get 200 airpoints for nothing and forward diarise to cancel after 11 months 29 days but I can't be bothered with the paperwork and would prefer a durable, pragmatic card with a sensible and easy reward system and no annual card fees ever ! To be honest I am often surprised by some clients than run multiple gold or platinum card accounts with different providers and the annual card fees can amount to a pretty tidy sum.

Cash back rewards are fine but the money disappears into the ether of one's finances and is quickly forgotten or worse still, ostensibly eaten up in annual card fees, whereas on the other hand this new no annual fee card will be sure to reward me with memorable flights over the years so I'm loving this new initiative put together by Amex and AIR N.Z.
Anyway mate here's the good oil on this card if you or others are interested : http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/airpoints-amex Note, eligibility dates have been extended.

[Robomo]

Baa_Baa. Your original post states the "cheapest airfare", not the cheapest airfare on the days you want or need to travel. If you travel on the days and times you needto travel (and you still don't quote the actual dates) and pay $558 then that is what it is. However if you want the "cheapest airfare", as you write, then you could wait until 16 February and pay just $248. In fact if you booked Paraparaumu-AKL-Paraparaumu on 15-17 June you would just pay $118 return.

Your original post is disingenuous in that it infers that the "cheapest airfare" is $558, which is patently not true. It's true only for the times that you need to travel.

Air New Zealand sets fares according to demand, just like every other airline in the world, including Jetstar. If P'umu - Auckland is so expensive and profitable then surely that would attract others to share the spoils? I don't see Jetstar or Ewan Wilson flying out of P'umu.

I've written before that New Zealand regional airfares are as low as anywhere else in the world. Check the prices of the 1 hour flight from Sydney-Wagga Wagga-Sydney - similar flight time as P'umu - Auckland and has two airlines in competition. Return airfare for later this week is $NZ384 on Rex and $512 on Qantas. For 15-17 June (P'umu - AKL - P'umu on Air NZ $118) fares SYD-WAG-SYD are $NZ229 on Rex and $NZ293 on Qantas. The possible reason for this is that the average load factor is below 60%, maybe because 2 airlines are vying for limited business.

Baa_Baa, you are trying to create an impression that AirNZ are unfairly gouging the good citizens of Paraparaumu and you quote selective fares to prove your point. As I point out, what you say is only applicable to the travel dates you want to travel, there are much cheaper deals available if you book well ahead of time. Perhaps you could comment on the relationship between SYD-WAG-SYD fares where there is a competitive market and how it compares to the AirNZ monopoly in Paraparaumu?

[Baa_Baa]

Baa_Baa. Your original post states the "cheapest airfare", not the cheapest airfare on the days you want or need to travel. If you travel on the days and times you needto travel (and you still don't quote the actual dates) and pay $558 then that is what it is. However if you want the "cheapest airfare", as you write, then you could wait until 16 February and pay just $248. In fact if you booked Paraparaumu-AKL-Paraparaumu on 15-17 June you would just pay $118 return.

Your original post is disingenuous in that it infers that the "cheapest airfare" is $558, which is patently not true. It's true only for the times that you need to travel.

Baa_Baa, you are trying to create an impression that AirNZ are unfairly gouging the good citizens of Paraparaumu and you quote selective fares to prove your point. As I point out, what you say is only applicable to the travel dates you want to travel, there are much cheaper deals available if you book well ahead of time. Perhaps you could comment on the relationship between SYD-WAG-SYD fares where there is a competitive market and how it compares to the AirNZ monopoly in Paraparaumu?

Good grief, why would I bother posting THE FACTS about my travel unless it was about the days I needed to travel! Disingenuous, hardly. I'm not making up these fares, they're on the Air website and are going up, quickly, for the hapless who need to book nearer the day of their travel! They're the facts that's all, you need to get over it. Air NZ charge what they like on the uncontested routes. You as a shareholder should be happy about it, but you'd rather stick it up anyone who dares to point they're gouging uncontested routes.

[Beagle]

Here we have the world's most modern airliner the new Dreamliner and because Jetstar have crammed so many seats into it they've turned the Dreamliner into a nightmare-liner. Just look at the appalling feedback Jetstar are getting on their service on seatguru, scroll down the page a bit for the user feedback section
http://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Jetstar/Jetstar_Boeing_787-8.php

[Beagle]

Yes on some particular flights Baa Baa which are close to fully booked AIR will charge you a top price if you are insistent on travelling on that particular date and on that particular flight. Pragmatic people simply accept the commercial reality that ALL airlines are there to maximise profits, (welcome to the commercial reality of the aviation world), and take steps to mitigate the effects thereof. In your case this could involve changing flight times or date or simply driving the short distance to Wellington airport and flying out of there. 50 km's and 40 minutes is all what I hear is involved, more during the rush hour...roughly the same amount of time it takes me to travel to Auckland airport every single time I fly.

Frankly I'm a little surprised that AIR N.Z. bother to provide the good citizens of Paraparumu with the super convenience of flights right from their back doorstep with such a major airport in such close proximity. Be careful what you wish for because if AIR can't make a profit on the Paraparumu flights you'll lose that convenience.

If you are price conscious there are ample cheap flights from Wellington to Auckland and vice versa for those that book ahead a bit so for the sake of a relatively short drive I really think you already have the power to do something about it if the flight prices out of the Kapiti Coast concern you so much. On the other hand if you're an extremely busy businessman and value the extra time each way saved on a commute to Wellington airport then pay-up and be glad you've got that super doorstep convenience that most of us don't have the privilege of being able to chose to enjoy.

[blockhead]

Roger, I see in an earlier post you were extolling the virtues of an Amex card, have you found some retailers reluctant to accept the card ? Like everything someone has to pay for whatever benefits you are obtaining, as an accommodation business in times gone buy we would not accept the Amex card because of the horrendous commission rate charged compared with Visa/Mastercard. It can be annoying to turn up @ certain businesses and find your card is not acceptable.

[winner69]

OMG, Roger and several others banned as a result of their little tiff

Ina purely selfish note this is bad news - last tie Roger was banned the AIR share price dropped. Boud to happen again.

And Tim, yes the charts didn't 'predict' this banning and consequential drop in the AIR shareprice.

[777]

Hardly a tiff worth banning. There will hardly be anyone left shortly at this rate.

[Hoop]

.....And Tim, yes the charts didn't 'predict' this banning and consequential drop in the AIR shareprice.

AIR swung downwards 2 November from a bearish triple top high (2.97)...the thursday 12th and Friday 13th turnaround did not produce enough buy signals only very short term stuff..The BB's also relaxed its squeeze with the 10th November fall suggesting a new downtrend...The chart showed this before the Paris Event...

Wall St also fired my personal Warning Get Out signals...(before Paris event).....The media will blame Paris Event if the Markets downtrend from Monday ...but in reality there are other factors influencing the Global Equity swing down...The Paris Event may amplify the possible downtrend but it was not the catalyst...

(see my post on the S&P500 thread) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7257-Daily-S-amp-P-500-INDEX-TRACKER&p=597587#post597587)

[skid]

OMG, Roger and several others banned as a result of their little tiff

Ina purely selfish note this is bad news - last tie Roger was banned the AIR share price dropped. Boud to happen again.

And Tim, yes the charts didn't 'predict' this banning and consequential drop in the AIR shareprice.

No Winner --you jinxed it again:)--just kidding---outside markets--most will probably suffer a bit today

[winner69]

I see Couta1 been banned as well

Hope he picked up those extra shares he was after

[pierre]

I see Couta1 been banned as well

Hope he picked up those extra shares he was after

How do you see who has been banned?

[winner69]

How do you see who has been banned?

It shows under their name to the right of any of their posts

Like if you ot banned your 'Member' would read 'Banned'


U can also see status searching through the Community tab

[pierre]

It shows under their name to the right of any of their posts

Like if you ot banned your 'Member' would read 'Banned'


U can also see status searching through the Community tab

Thanks mate.

We all have to be very careful on here these days. I had a post removed a few days ago and received a "warning" for an attempt at what I thought was just some mild humour.

Share trading is a serious business, so we must all treat it as such and keep our posts completely relevant and strictly to the point. Bearing that in mind AIR has not suffered too much today in the wake of the horror in Paris - down 2.1% at the moment, could have been much worse.

[Brain]

How do we know how long people are banned for?

[winner69]

How do we know how long people are banned for?

I think we need to wait patiently for them to come back, assuming they bother

U can't PM the 'Banned' ones to if out either

[skid]

I see Couta1 been banned as well

Hope he picked up those extra shares he was after

If so -today would be better than Friday for that--Markets were looking not great even before the bad news so may be prudent to hold fire on buying till theres a bit more direction with the market in general.

ill be interested to see what price AIR come up with ,with Viet Nam flights--(plenty about both them and AA in weekend herald.

In terms of Roger and Coutts--In the words of Arnold S.(well,you know the rest):)

[Biscuit]

Thanks mate.


Share trading is a serious business, so we must all treat it as such and keep our posts completely relevant and strictly to the point.

There is of course a serious side to share trading but the forum is also about a bit of fun and banter. Because it is easy for that to get out of hand, we need to be respectful of other members of the forum, its easy for what we see as banter to offend others.

[Regi]

Some of the people banned are the only reason I come on this forum... not to speak bad of the mods because rules are rules but really... is there no freedom of speech on here or room for a simple argument without running the risk of getting banned? It just seems a bit ridiculous and overpowering.

And yep winner, history repeats. Share price down 7 cents... bring them back!

[Joshuatree]

Not sure what you mean here Regi; that the s/p is affected by who is or who isn't posting?:mellow: Perish that thought if so.

And yep winner, history repeats. Share price down 7 cents... bring them back![/QUOTE]

[Hoop]

Not sure what you mean here Regi; that the s/p is affected by who is or who isn't posting?:mellow: ......[/QUOTE]

No..it's the opposite..Its the Share price changes and price trends that affect ST members posting behaviours.... certain individuals I won't name do make good TA indicators... (Normal or Inverted:D)...This is the reason why I value and respect everyone's post...our activities are all encompassed within the market effect.
The freedom of speech and data makes for a healthy market and healthy market signals

[winner69]

Hardly a tiff worth banning. There will hardly be anyone left shortly at this rate.

Was a 'robust debate' - and higher standard than what we see in Parliament eh

[winner69]

No..it's the opposite..Its the Share price changes and price trends that affect ST members posting behaviours.... certain individuals I won't name do make good TA indicators... (Normal or Inverted:D)...This is the reason why I value and respect everyone's post...our activities are all encompassed within the market effect.
The freedom of speech and data makes for a healthy market and healthy market signals

Hope price doesn't go down too much more - will have to close the trade out if it does and take more profits

Not much volume today, pretty low really - probably only the rats and mice shareholders (some of those 15,000 odd who own less than 1,000 shares) moving onto something 'safer'

[Regi]

Not sure what you mean here Regi; that the s/p is affected by who is or who isn't posting?:mellow: Perish that thought if so.

And yep winner, history repeats. Share price down 7 cents... bring them back![/QUOTE]

Obviously not Josh, just messing :)

[mikeybycrikey]

Not sure what you mean here Regi; that the s/p is affected by who is or who isn't posting?:mellow: Perish that thought if so.

And yep winner, history repeats. Share price down 7 cents... bring them back!

I think it relates to a joke made earlier today where someone suggested that the last time Roger was banned the share price went down and it was likely to happen again today. I'm sure the poster (can't remember who) was fully aware that banning Roger probably has little effect on the SP.

I find the bans a little unfortunate because sometimes banned users don't come back at all, for whatever reason, and we all lose because of that.

I'm fairly pleased with a 7¢ drop today. After the events in Paris, I was expecting that AIR might drop by about twice that amount. More falls might be ahead if there are further attacks though.

[Jantar]

......Not much volume today, pretty low really - probably only the rats and mice shareholders (some of those 15,000 odd who own less than 1,000 shares) moving onto something 'safer'
I am one of those. Sold half of my AIR shares this morning to lock in some profits and hoping to buy back in later this week at a lower price. The Paris effect, if any, won't be seen here until tomorrow.

[gv1]

The freedom of speech and data makes for a healthy market and healthy market signals[/QUOTE]

yes, very true Hoop!!:t_up:

[winner69]

I am one of those. Sold half of my AIR shares this morning to lock in some profits and hoping to buy back in later this week at a lower price. The Paris effect, if any, won't be seen here until tomorrow.

Good on you Jantar - making a bob or two but better still coming back for more - definitely not a rat deserting a sinking ship are you.

[percy]

The freedom of speech and data makes for a healthy market and healthy market signals

yes, very true Hoop!!:t_up:[/QUOTE]

There are a number of people who like discussing shares,but are not into "robust" debates.
Unfortunately for us, they are the ones who are no longer posting on sharetrader.
The likes of Phaedrus,Sauce and Belgarion are sorely missed.
Some of the new breed of posters lack simple courtesies and manners.

[Crash Test Dummy]

Just finished a contract testing a new aircraft ejector seat.

Apparently Jetstar NZ are fitting one to each of their aircraft on the chance that Roger will fly with them again.

Rumour says that Kiwi Air have bought a one-way Jetstar ticket for Roger.

[Robomo]

I think we need to wait patiently for them to come back, assuming they bother

U can't PM the 'Banned' ones to if out either

I was put in the naughty corner for 24 hours.

[kyanar]

Wouldn't hold my breath Robomo as he/she will not be able to support his/hers statement. Most frequent flyers of which I am one, will agree Air NZ has a very good scheme that is particularly easy to redeem.

Hardly. FlyerTalk people tear it apart (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/air-new-zealand-air-points/1541201-rate-air-new-zealand-airpoints.html) fairly (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/air-new-zealand-air-points/1722913-status-match-ua1k-dl-plat.html) regularly (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/air-new-zealand-air-points/1663292-best-frequent-flyer-scheme-air-nz-virgin-australia-flights.html).Australian Frequent Flyer people are even (http://www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au/community/air-new-zealand-airpoints/airnz-airpoint-vs-virgin-velocity-71536.html) more (http://www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au/community/air-new-zealand-airpoints/does-anyone-aff-use-nz-68979.html) scathing (http://www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au/community/air-new-zealand-airpoints/air-nz-revamps-loyalty-scheme-55623.html). I still use it though.

The whole any seat award thing is good, although I have seen complaints that AIR does not make many (if any) seats available to Alliance redemptions - I don't know if Alliance members actually pay for award seats, so that could be an effective cost control measure (which to me as a shareholder, can only be a good thing!)

Regardless, they still make Airline of the Year fairly regularly (good for us!) and when the Aussies are commenting that AIR's results are actually more impressive (http://www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au/community/air-new-zealand-airpoints/airnz-results-more-impressive-than-70291.html) than QAN's - well, you get the idea :)

DISC: Holder, looking to accumulate.

[Crackity]

Rog will be with you all shortly to give the shareprice liftoff...;)

[skid]

Hardly. FlyerTalk people tear it apart (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/air-new-zealand-air-points/1541201-rate-air-new-zealand-airpoints.html) fairly (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/air-new-zealand-air-points/1722913-status-match-ua1k-dl-plat.html) regularly (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/air-new-zealand-air-points/1663292-best-frequent-flyer-scheme-air-nz-virgin-australia-flights.html).Australian Frequent Flyer people are even (http://www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au/community/air-new-zealand-airpoints/airnz-airpoint-vs-virgin-velocity-71536.html) more (http://www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au/community/air-new-zealand-airpoints/does-anyone-aff-use-nz-68979.html) scathing (http://www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au/community/air-new-zealand-airpoints/air-nz-revamps-loyalty-scheme-55623.html). I still use it though.

The whole any seat award thing is good, although I have seen complaints that AIR does not make many (if any) seats available to Alliance redemptions - I don't know if Alliance members actually pay for award seats, so that could be an effective cost control measure (which to me as a shareholder, can only be a good thing!)

Regardless, they still make Airline of the Year fairly regularly (good for us!) and when the Aussies are commenting that AIR's results are actually more impressive (http://www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au/community/air-new-zealand-airpoints/airnz-results-more-impressive-than-70291.html) than QAN's - well, you get the idea :)

DISC: Holder, looking to accumulate.

Theres no doubt that cashing in airpoints is a drag --allotted seats are minimal,but its worth to collect them if your flying mostly with the same airline or an affiliate--But choosing an airline specifically for airpoints IMO is pretty much in the realm of businessmen--most go for the best deal--probably a nice little perk for those traveling businessmen but not a game changer.
The markets have shrugged off Paris so there should be more of a chance of a lift than a drop today-,with most stocks(some airlines have dropped so it will be interesting to see what AIR does)-should be a happy day in general,on the NZX

[Zaphod]

The earn/burn ratio isn't as generous as other FFP's, however that needs to be balanced against the much easier redemption. Anecdotally, there appears to be a larger number of *G and Koru members using lounges perhaps due to much easier status earning and payment options for the Koru Club. What was once a relatively quiet lounge (although WLG is like a theme park at 5pm) is now extremely noisy and busy. From a shareholder perspective this is all adding significantly to the bottom line.

Oh the cognitive dissonance hurts!

[Beagle]

Some of the people banned are the only reason I come on this forum... not to speak bad of the mods because rules are rules but really... is there no freedom of speech on here or room for a simple argument without running the risk of getting banned? It just seems a bit ridiculous and overpowering.

And yep winner, history repeats. Share price down 7 cents... bring them back!

Spot on mate. It was nothing more than a good debate. Rules are quite obviously open to misinterpretation. What's the difference between a good debate and an argument ? Some on here need to try and understand the difference.
If we're going to have to water all our enthusiasm and passion down with overdoses of Prozac so everything is 110% politically correct and ultra polite then the merits of the site are also watered down with it.
Has anyone ever noticed in Parliament that place runs with the benefit of good debates...for goodness sake...

[skid]

Shall we talk some more about the regional air routes again then :):)...just kidding --welcome back

[skid]

I think it would be hard to argue that outside markets have not had an effect on the last few days--Its not all about milage points ,lounges,even balance sheets--market sentiment plays its part.

[blockhead]

Roger

Whilst you were on leave I directed a post your way (4128) now your penance is completed you might be able to comment ?

[Beagle]

Roger, I see in an earlier post you were extolling the virtues of an Amex card, have you found some retailers reluctant to accept the card ? Like everything someone has to pay for whatever benefits you are obtaining, as an accommodation business in times gone buy we would not accept the Amex card because of the horrendous commission rate charged compared with Visa/Mastercard. It can be annoying to turn up @ certain businesses and find your card is not acceptable.

Sorry missed that one. You make a fair point that Visa and MasterCard are more widely accepted than Amex or Diners Card for that matter and its usually because Amex and Diners have higher commission rates. Its probably too early for me to give meaningful feedback, (better to ask someone who has used one for quite a while), but early anecdotal feedback is that I've used it maybe six or seven times so far and only once was it not accepted. Probably pays to carry another card as well which is what I do.

In news in the Herald today I see MOTAT are restoring the only remaining Solent flying boat to full airworthy status with the help of a donation from AIR N.Z. Great news and I am very pleased to see this important part of our aviation history being treasured as this is the first aircraft that opened up the N.Z. skies to commercial travel in N.Z. 75 years ago. For those that don't know or who haven't visited for many years the aviation section with the fancy new building at MOTAT is a very good display and well worth a visit.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11546862

[kiwichick]

Sorry missed that one. You make a fair point that Visa and MasterCard are more widely accepted than Amex or Diners Card for that matter and its usually because Amex and Diners have higher commission rates. Its probably too early for me to give meaningful feedback, (better to ask someone who has used one for quite a while), but early anecdotal feedback is that I've used it maybe six or seven times so far and only once was it not accepted. Probably pays to carry another card as well which is what I do.

I use the American Express card as my primary credit card. It certainly isn't accepted everywhere. All the major supermarkets and petrol stations take it, as well as large retail outlets and online retailers. Smaller places don't, even fast food outlets. I also had a lot of trouble using it overseas. In France it wasn't accepted anywhere except the airport. However, because the basic Amex Airpoints card has no annual fee, it doesn't cost anything to use, so I don't see any reason not to get one.

[skid]

From my general impression Amex seems to be much less used.
Some Visa cards have cash backs that mean you actually make a profit if you use it enough to cover the cost--so that would be a good reason to use Visa rather than Amex--(their travelers checks have well and truly bit the dust in most places so beware if considering that)

[Snow Leopard]

Competition hotting up (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11546693) :t_up:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Traderx]

From my general impression Amex seems to be much less used.
Some Visa cards have cash backs that mean you actually make a profit if you use it enough to cover the cost--so that would be a good reason to use Visa rather than Amex--(their travelers checks have well and truly bit the dust in most places so beware if considering that)

You definitely cannot have an amex as an only card, you'll generally need a visa or mastercard for some locations that don't accept amex. But they have the best incentives around to join.

The current deal for amex air nz platinum is frankly just money for jam.

You pay a $395 annual fee, you spend $2000 in first three months. You earn at the usual $75/ APD i.e $26 APD. But then they give you $800 APD. you also get a return seat + bag domestic flight in NZ, Travel insurance, status points, etc etc

So to me the value is at least $800 + $200 (dom flight) - 395 + 26 = $631, assuming you normally would spend $2k in 3 months, most people proably could do this with supermarket plus fuel/utilities. You could then cancel before next years fee or negotiate directly with amex an incentive to stay on beyond the 1st year.

[theace]

Virgin reaffirms guidance for return to profitability in 2015/16 ... all looking good
http://australianaviation.com.au/2015/11/virgin-reaffirms-guidance-for-return-to-profitability-in-201516/

[Beagle]

You definitely cannot have an amex as an only card, you'll generally need a visa or mastercard for some locations that don't accept amex. But they have the best incentives around to join.

The current deal for amex air nz platinum is frankly just money for jam.

You pay a $395 annual fee, you spend $2000 in first three months. You earn at the usual $75/ APD i.e $26 APD. But then they give you $800 APD. you also get a return seat + bag domestic flight in NZ, Travel insurance, status points, etc etc

So to me the value is at least $800 + $200 (dom flight) - 395 + 26 = $631, assuming you normally would spend $2k in 3 months, most people proably could do this with supermarket plus fuel/utilities. You could then cancel before next years fee or negotiate directly with amex an incentive to stay on beyond the 1st year.

Nice analysis and agree 100% and I'd take Auckland to Queenstown and probably get more than $200 value from the return flight. Effectivly AMEX and / or AIR are handing out Christmas presents. This is a much improved offer from what I originally received and if I could turn the clock back ten days I would apply for this card instead of the regular one I did....worth doing the paperwork online for $631. Hard offer to ignore, what with it being splashed all over the front page and inside front page of the Herald...two full pages. Surely Amex and AIR cooperated on this as on the face of it, it looks like money for jam. Good advertising for AIR I reckon. Plenty of people earn over $65,000 per annum so Amex will get a huge boost in numbers from this promotion in my opinion.

[dobby41]

How does the free flight work?
Don't you have to be in it for a year to get the flight therefore you can't easily cancel before next years fee?

[Beagle]

Appear's not dobby41. Have a look through here for all the details and fine print. http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/airpoints-partner-american-express
Disc: I don't work for American express or have any financial interest or relationship with them, just pointing out the buffet appears to be open for those who care to enjoy :)

[Traderx]

Nice analysis and agree 100% and I'd take Auckland to Queenstown and probably get more than $200 value from the return flight. Effectivly AMEX and / or AIR are handing out Christmas presents. This is a much improved offer from what I originally received and if I could turn the clock back ten days I would apply for this card instead of the regular one I did....worth doing the paperwork online for $631. Hard offer to ignore, what with it being splashed all over the front page and inside front page of the Herald...two full pages. Surely Amex and AIR cooperated on this as on the face of it, it looks like money for jam. Good advertising for AIR I reckon. Plenty of people earn over $65,000 per annum so Amex will get a huge boost in numbers from this promotion in my opinion.

Yeah I think air NZ will have to be helping out Amex here with a cheaper acquisition rate on APD or the like, would be interesting to know the split of the "cost". Qantas are making a bit more of a push on their frequent flyer program in NZ recently, with some billboards, launching travel money, guaranteed earnings on Jetstar flights, 20k CC sign-up bonus through ANZ etc so think this is probably just Air NZ seeking to really lock in that more wealthy >$65kpa demographic into airpoints.

[Beagle]

Yeah I think air NZ will have to be helping out Amex here with a cheaper acquisition rate on APD or the like, would be interesting to know the split of the "cost". Qantas are making a bit more of a push on their frequent flyer program in NZ recently, with some billboards, launching travel money, guaranteed earnings on Jetstar flights, 20k CC sign-up bonus through ANZ etc so think this is probably just Air NZ seeking to really lock in that more wealthy >$65kpa demographic into airpoints.

Agreed mate, trying to put golden handcuffs on those customers that actually do the spending. As always, AIR N.Z. marketing department are very clever and innovative.
I am sure they have an extensive database to assess the likelihood of people retaining the cards after one year and it must be worth it to AIR and Amex otherwise the apparently too good to be true offer wouldn't exist would it :)

[Beagle]

Virgin reaffirms guidance for return to profitability in 2015/16 ... all looking good
http://australianaviation.com.au/2015/11/virgin-reaffirms-guidance-for-return-to-profitability-in-201516/

Thanks, looks good. Virgin was a $29m drag on earnings last year, maybe a $29m contributor this year for a $58m overall improvement for Fy16 ?

[brend]

Competition hotting up (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11546693) :t_up:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

to bad AIR doesn't fly to Suva ah

[Joshuatree]

Craigs adding AIR to their Private wealth Research Australasian high conviction list
"flexibility and and responsive to changes in competitive dynamics and AIR successfully filling extra seats it has created; undemanding price to earnings and offers an attractive gross D/Y. etc

[Beagle]

Craigs adding AIR to their Private wealth Research Australasian high conviction list
"flexibility and and responsive to changes in competitive dynamics and AIR successfully filling extra seats it has created; undemanding price to earnings and offers an attractive gross D/Y. etc

A list of Australasian stocks that usually numbers no more than ten and they note that AIR trading on an all time low PE of only 4.8 and a gross dividend yield of in excess of 10%.
Valuation of $3.40. Usually when a company upgrades so early in a financial year like they did at the annual meeting it's seldom the last upgrade and signals strong confidence.

[Snow Leopard]

to bad AIR doesn't fly to Suva ah

Yes, I was surprised to discover that Fiji has two International Airports !

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Joshuatree]

The s/p doesn't signal strong confidence atp and other brokers have t/p's from $2.80 to $3.03. Anyone got other broker reports?Time will tell re if are they "usually" right or" seldom".Craigs have re 7 Airline stocks ahead of AIR in target prices atm.With oil prices staying low , it certainly helps. Not a high conviction stock for me atp but holding with a good margin of safety atm , price purchasewise.Then theres things like terrorism alerts to worry about, unfortunately.

[kyanar]

Yeah I think air NZ will have to be helping out Amex here with a cheaper acquisition rate on APD or the like, would be interesting to know the split of the "cost". Qantas are making a bit more of a push on their frequent flyer program in NZ recently, with some billboards, launching travel money, guaranteed earnings on Jetstar flights, 20k CC sign-up bonus through ANZ etc so think this is probably just Air NZ seeking to really lock in that more wealthy >$65kpa demographic into airpoints.
I'm not 100% convinced that AIR has had to offer anything to Amex to make this offer available, as they have a similar offer available in Australia on VAH (https://www.americanexpress.com/au/content/velocity-rewards-cards/velocity-platinum/) (Virgin) and QAN (https://www.americanexpress.com/au/content/frequent-flyer-cards/qantas-ultimate/) cards (actually a better offer - 50,000 Velocity points is enough for a return Business class reward seat from BNE to MEL, and you actually get 80,000 points with a referral)

[Joshuatree]

"flexibility and and responsive to changes in competitive dynamics and AIR successfully filling extra seats it has created"

A couple of good examples of this below.Announcements coming thick and fast.AIR be nimble AIR be quick.



Read more » (http://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/QQMrKma8h6MjbHw96gBRew/TqYHwQR3fesY763Huanf3SSg/CAFuQXvMCwkO9Rt6ijvRhQ)
Read more » (http://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/QQMrKma8h6MjbHw96gBRew/biqez1pXWFgIEmbDWts5mQ/CAFuQXvMCwkO9Rt6ijvRhQ)

[Zaphod]

The 787-9 is destined to take over the AKL-HNL sector from May 2016. That'll be a welcome change from the 767, allowing higher margin Bus/PE and Skycouch product to be used.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/74186818/air-new-zealand-announces-dreamliner-and-new-departure-times-for-auckland-to-honolulu-route

[skid]

A couple of good examples of this below.Announcements coming thick and fast.AIR be nimble AIR be quick.



Read more » (http://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/QQMrKma8h6MjbHw96gBRew/TqYHwQR3fesY763Huanf3SSg/CAFuQXvMCwkO9Rt6ijvRhQ)
Read more » (http://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/QQMrKma8h6MjbHw96gBRew/biqez1pXWFgIEmbDWts5mQ/CAFuQXvMCwkO9Rt6ijvRhQ)

So what does that mean? Flight center will promote AIR ahead of other airlines?--Surely they will make all good priced specials for any airline available-(but not include them in ads?)-If not -Ill be looking elsewhere

[Joshuatree]

This from a retired fund manager might help, skid

"I see FLT as an intermediary between airlines and their customers, and the only intermediary that has the sort of brand resonance and scale that makes it indispensable to the optimal financial operation of airlines.

FLT’s commercial moat lies in it being the best by far in what I call the “business of catching marginal bums”.

No one other organisation can deliver the marginal bums-on-seats that are critically-important to, and the most profitable ones for, airlines, like FLT can with its scale and brand presence."

[Beagle]

The 787-9 is destined to take over the AKL-HNL sector from May 2016. That'll be a welcome change from the 767, allowing higher margin Bus/PE and Skycouch product to be used.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/74186818/air-new-zealand-announces-dreamliner-and-new-departure-times-for-auckland-to-honolulu-route

Sweet, that just became my dream summer holiday for next winter.

[blockhead]

Not a single one of Rog's valued AIR shares changed hands and its nearly lunch time

[Beagle]

Not a single one of Rog's valued AIR shares changed hands and its nearly lunch time

You are right. Quite obviously this is a most illiquid share so I recommend you dump all yours and smack the SP down to $2.70.
Disc: I might know someone trying to get a cheeky top-up at that price :D

[brend]

Not a single one of Rog's valued AIR shares changed hands and its nearly lunch time

I thought ASB was broken.

[skid]

You are right. Quite obviously this is a most illiquid share so I recommend you dump all yours and smack the SP down to $2.70.
Disc: I might know someone trying to get a cheeky top-up at that price :D

Geez Roger-be careful what you say, only 6c more to go--this thread is starting to make me superstitious:) (low volume) think everyone must be taking the day off..

[sb9]

Not a bad finish for the day up a cent, considering that low activity until afternoon. Feel sorry for those that sold in low to mid 270s.

[kyanar]

The 787-9 is destined to take over the AKL-HNL sector from May 2016. That'll be a welcome change from the 767, allowing higher margin Bus/PE and Skycouch product to be used.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/74186818/air-new-zealand-announces-dreamliner-and-new-departure-times-for-auckland-to-honolulu-route

What I find curious is that trying a test booking via my local Air NZ site, I was offered "Seats to suit" (international short haul options/trans tasman) rather than international long haul options. I'm not sure how much demand there will be for paying $1,400 for a return fare to Honolulu with no meal or checked baggage!

[Hoop]

Not a bad finish for the day up a cent, considering that low activity until afternoon. Feel sorry for those that sold in low to mid 270s.

Really??..
Haven't been looking at the markets today but tonight when looking at the AIR chart there's been rats & mice nibbling away on low activity all day Sb9..... except for one big player(s) who sold out on larger volume and pushed the price down to 273 in the process due to the low liquidity...... that type of selling behaviour I would assume would be someone or (more) wanting to get quickly for reasons unknown...I wouldn't be feeling sorry, I would be asking why....

It doesn't always suggest the seller knows something, it could something as simple as wanting out to buy a house or something..who knows...But technically TA sees today overall as a negative and helped widen the negatives on the TA indicators.....It doesn't make that 281 (up 1c) close look so flash...also as the vwap was 276.14c..and that creates a candlestick with a tail...rat?..:D...

I'll ask for you:)...Does anyone know who the seller was??..

Disc: Out of AIR (gasp)

[Beagle]

What I find curious is that trying a test booking via my local Air NZ site, I was offered "Seats to suit" (international short haul options/trans tasman) rather than international long haul options. I'm not sure how much demand there will be for paying $1,400 for a return fare to Honolulu with no meal or checked baggage!

You must be talking about pricing during the school holidays. I had a quick look for next winter, (random dates in June, July, August and Sept) and didn't find it all that difficult to find flights in the mid-late $500 range each way incl baggage which seems reasonable to me. I reckon people looking for any excuse to try AIR's new Dreamliner out would find this an attractive proposition, I know I do :)
Keep in mind that AIR have changed the flight time, (some would probably claim somewhat cynically to save themselves meals and drinks costs) to an 8.55 p.m. departure arriving at 7.30 a.m. so taking the meal and drinks options will only get you a light supper, some drinks and breakfast, worth the extra money for that ?, people can decide that for themselves.

In other airline news I see its likely that we'll see domestic bag screening in the wake of increased terrorism threats...makes common sense to me.

[vin]

Happy for domestic bag screening, always thought the process was pretty lax. There's some bat**** crazy people in NZ.

[dobby41]

Keep in mind that AIR have changed the flight time, (some would probably claim somewhat cynically to save themselves meals and drinks costs) to an 8.55 p.m. departure arriving at 7.30 a.m. so taking the meal and drinks options will only get you a light supper, some drinks and breakfast, worth the extra money for that ?, people can decide that for themselves.

The flight time is ideal.
Leave after work and arrive the next day - travelling overnight saves accomodation and adds a day to your holiday - perfect IMHO.

[Beagle]

The flight time is ideal.
Leave after work and arrive the next day - travelling overnight saves accomodation and adds a day to your holiday - perfect IMHO.

I agree its perfect for those people fortunate enough to be able to sleep on an aircraft. For the rest of us you arrive shattered to a full day of sunshine...fabulous, (not).
Maybe the meal option is the way to go with several stiff drinks and a sleeping pill or even two :eek2:
P.S. I think this is a very cunning plan of AIR's to get people to upgrade to premium economy or the business sleeper seats. Might as well start your five star Hawaiian holiday in the way you intend to carry it on eh :)

[mikeybycrikey]

You must be talking about pricing during the school holidays. I had a quick look for next winter, (random dates in June, July, August and Sept) and didn't find it all that difficult to find flights in the mid-late $500 range each way incl baggage which seems reasonable to me. I reckon people looking for any excuse to try AIR's new Dreamliner out would find this an attractive proposition, I know I do :)
Keep in mind that AIR have changed the flight time, (some would probably claim somewhat cynically to save themselves meals and drinks costs) to an 8.55 p.m. departure arriving at 7.30 a.m. so taking the meal and drinks options will only get you a light supper, some drinks and breakfast, worth the extra money for that ?, people can decide that for themselves.

In other airline news I see its likely that we'll see domestic bag screening in the wake of increased terrorism threats...makes common sense to me.

I think kyanar is referring to the Seat/Seat + bag/Works seating options rather than the more usual Econ/PE/Bus seating options that I might expect on an 8 hour flight.

I'd have to agree too. The decision to have "Seats to suit" pricing on some of these longer routes like Honolulu and Bali doesn't quite seem right.

Hopefully AIR know what they're doing.

[tzbang]

I agree! I've always thought it was way too lax. Now is the time to tighten up on that for sure.

[dobby41]

P.S. I think this is a very cunning plan of AIR's to get people to upgrade to premium economy or the business sleeper seats.

Given this is a share forum - that sounds like a perfect plan for increased profits.
Top marks to the company :-)

[Zaphod]

I think kyanar is referring to the Seat/Seat + bag/Works seating options rather than the more usual Econ/PE/Bus seating options that I might expect on an 8 hour flight.

I'd have to agree too. The decision to have "Seats to suit" pricing on some of these longer routes like Honolulu and Bali doesn't quite seem right.

Hopefully AIR know what they're doing.

FYI HNL does have quite a few customers flying for business. Hawaii is a major hub for the satellite and telecommunications industry, and a colleague commutes there regularly to meet with others from throughout North America and Europe. Another firm in the energy industry I'm involved with do some very large scale engineering projects for private companies and the US military. Seats-to-suit works well given the short duration stay.

[sb9]

Really??..
Haven't been looking at the markets today but tonight when looking at the AIR chart there's been rats & mice nibbling away on low activity all day Sb9..... except for one big player(s) who sold out on larger volume and pushed the price down to 273 in the process due to the low liquidity...... that type of selling behaviour I would assume would be someone or (more) wanting to get quickly for reasons unknown...I wouldn't be feeling sorry, I would be asking why....

It doesn't always suggest the seller knows something, it could something as simple as wanting out to buy a house or something..who knows...But technically TA sees today overall as a negative and helped widen the negatives on the TA indicators.....It doesn't make that 281 (up 1c) close look so flash...also as the vwap was 276.14c..and that creates a candlestick with a tail...rat?..:D...

I'll ask for you:)...Does anyone know who the seller was??..

Disc: Out of AIR (gasp)

Wouldn't have a clue who that mystery seller was.

When I say I felt sorry (for those sold out in low to mid 270s) it was in light of y'day's trading pattern not in general.

[Beagle]

I think kyanar is referring to the Seat/Seat + bag/Works seating options rather than the more usual Econ/PE/Bus seating options that I might expect on an 8 hour flight.

I'd have to agree too. The decision to have "Seats to suit" pricing on some of these longer routes like Honolulu and Bali doesn't quite seem right.

Hopefully AIR know what they're doing.

I'm with you and would naturally expect that AIR would provide meals, drinks and entertainment on longer flights. I guess this is their way of offering a wide range of pricing options or maybe just another cunning way to extract more profits. I don't fly long routes often enough to know of this is a recent change or not but AIR's management team are a very smart and adaptable group of people and if they get significant customer resistance I'm sure they'll adapt their business model as required to optimise their profit, opps I meant to say the politically correct term "enhance the customer experience" :D

P.S. I hope my friend Couta1 comes back soon. A really honest guy, a nice bloke and a real gentleman. I count myself fortunate to have him as a friend and having met him twice in Wellington I'm looking forward to catching up again ASAP. Don't forget we're going fishing this summer mate, you're invited too Winner. I'll fly down and support our airline at the same time as having a great day out together.

[Hoop]

Wouldn't have a clue who that mystery seller was.

When I say I felt sorry (for those sold out in low to mid 270s) it was in light of y'day's trading pattern not in general.

I assumed that Sb9 ..I'm also assuming yesterday's low was attributed to that major seller so not many people to feel sorry for...
I can probably blame my longevity in the share market scene in not feeling sorry for many investors especially those looking for a quick buck....especially this guy..A warning for others who play the shorts game (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/help-my-short-position-got-crushed-and-now-i-owe-e-trade-10644556-2015-11-19?dist=afterbell)

[mikeybycrikey]

I'm with you and would naturally expect that AIR would provide meals, drinks and entertainment on longer flights. I guess this is their way of offering a wide range of pricing options or maybe just another cunning way to extract more profits. I don't fly long routes often enough to know of this is a recent change or not but AIR's management team are a very smart and adaptable group of people and if they get significant customer resistance I'm sure they'll adapt their business model as required to optimise their profit, opps I meant to say the politically correct term "enhance the customer experience" :D

P.S. I hope my friend Couta1 comes back soon. A really honest guy, a nice bloke and a real gentleman. I count myself fortunate to have him as a friend and having met him twice in Wellington I'm looking forward to catching up again ASAP. Don't forget we're going fishing this summer mate, you're invited too Winner. I'll fly down and support our airline at the same time as having a great day out together.


I had never really considered where the "seat to suit" fares ended. According to their web site, it is Australia and the Pacific Islands, which seems to include as far as Bali and Hawaii. Makes me wonder if Vietnam is going to have this pricing as well. At least they are also have PE and Business on these flights too to help earn a bit of upsell.

http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/aussie-and-islands-service-seats-to-suit

While it allows the airline to have cheaper headline prices by excluding many things, by the time is gets to $120 extra to get the Works, over Seat Only, it makes it feel like you're paying for a top-quality restaurant and getting diner quality food. But then, I have never uderstood the appeal of the cattle-truck experience that Ryan Air provides but it obviously works for them.

Is Couta1 still banned? Or just MIA?

[brend]

I had never really considered where the "seat to suit" fares ended. According to their web site, it is Australia and the Pacific Islands, which seems to include as far as Bali and Hawaii. Makes me wonder if Vietnam is going to have this pricing as well. At least they are also have PE and Business on these flights too to help earn a bit of upsell.

http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/aussie-and-islands-service-seats-to-suit

While it allows the airline to have cheaper headline prices by excluding many things, by the time is gets to $120 extra to get the Works, over Seat Only, it makes it feel like you're paying for a top-quality restaurant and getting diner quality food. But then, I have never uderstood the appeal of the cattle-truck experience that Ryan Air provides but it obviously works for them.

Is Couta1 still banned? Or just MIA?

I guess its all about giving you choice. Take for example a couple that wants to fly to Hawaii. They only need to take 1x21kg. One person buys a seat only fare, the other person buys a seat + bag fare and they buy food and drinks on board for around $30 each way.

Alot cheaper than buying the works.

[Beagle]

I had never really considered where the "seat to suit" fares ended. According to their web site, it is Australia and the Pacific Islands, which seems to include as far as Bali and Hawaii. Makes me wonder if Vietnam is going to have this pricing as well. At least they are also have PE and Business on these flights too to help earn a bit of upsell.

http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/aussie-and-islands-service-seats-to-suit

While it allows the airline to have cheaper headline prices by excluding many things, by the time is gets to $120 extra to get the Works, over Seat Only, it makes it feel like you're paying for a top-quality restaurant and getting diner quality food. But then, I have never uderstood the appeal of the cattle-truck experience that Ryan Air provides but it obviously works for them.

Is Couta1 still banned? Or just MIA?

I'm with you and think anything over about four or five hours should automatically include the extra's but management obviously have a plan and I have the upmost confidence in their expertise.

Couta1's untoward ban has come to an end but at this stage he is reluctant to come back.

[mikeybycrikey]

I'm with you and think anything over about four or five hours should automatically include the extra's but management obviously have a plan and I have the upmost confidence in their expertise.

Couta1's untoward ban has come to an end but at this stage he is reluctant to come back.

Glad to see that you edited your post. I thought that your original version might've been sailing a bit close to the wind.

I don't like to see anyone leave here permanently so hopefully we see Couta1 again because he has a lot to add, even if sometimes it is just to provide a bit of comic relief through his tales of buying high and selling low.

[Beagle]

Glad to see that you edited your post. I thought that your original version might've been sailing a bit close to the wind.

I don't like to see anyone leave here permanently so hopefully we see Couta1 again because he has a lot to add, even if sometimes it is just to provide a bit of comic relief through his tales of buying high and selling low.

He's learned a lot in a short period of time. Be good if you could say what you really wanted to say wouldn't it !!!! I am talking to him by e.mail so there is some hope. I just heard on the radio news at 5.00 p.m. that AIR N.Z has canned its Kapiti coast service to Christchurch and the stated reason will interest Baa Baa. (Because it is running at a loss). Use it, (Kapiti coast to Auckland) or lose it my friend and fight the Wellington traffic. I think that settles that debate which I am sure Baa Baa, I and Robomo enjoyed even if it was unfortunately misinterpreted by some to be an argument.

[skid]

I had never really considered where the "seat to suit" fares ended. According to their web site, it is Australia and the Pacific Islands, which seems to include as far as Bali and Hawaii. Makes me wonder if Vietnam is going to have this pricing as well. At least they are also have PE and Business on these flights too to help earn a bit of upsell.

http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/aussie-and-islands-service-seats-to-suit

While it allows the airline to have cheaper headline prices by excluding many things, by the time is gets to $120 extra to get the Works, over Seat Only, it makes it feel like you're paying for a top-quality restaurant and getting diner quality food. But then, I have never uderstood the appeal of the cattle-truck experience that Ryan Air provides but it obviously works for them.

Is Couta1 still banned? Or just MIA?

Id have to agree on the ''seat to suit'' stategy on longer flights.to me its a cheap look(like the budget airlines) I would have thought that part of the marketing of a co. like AIR is that it is a premium airline. When they have a special you want the travel agent to be able to say ''and thats Air NZ with meals and luggage'' Im hoping ,(as a customer)the Viet Nam specials ,when they come,are just plain specials --not the sort of ''this much more for meals etc.''--IMO even pricing each way instead of RT is a pain that normally adds up to not such a great deal after all.
In terms of advertising ,everyone does the ole ''great price for the 1% of allotted seats'' so often it works out a bit more than that super cheap price you see,but as long as its still good (not to much more)its fair game.(just one of those ad tricks they all use)
As a shareholder you want them to make a tidy profit--As a customer you want a good special on a good airline --Hopefully both of those things can happen

[Zaphod]

Id have to agree on the ''seat to suit'' stategy on longer flights.to me its a cheap look(like the budget airlines) I would have thought that part of the marketing of a co. like AIR is that it is a premium airline. When they have a special you want the travel agent to be able to say ''and thats Air NZ with meals and luggage'' Im hoping ,(as a customer)the Viet Nam specials ,when they come,are just plain specials --not the sort of ''this much more for meals etc.''--IMO even pricing each way instead of RT is a pain that normally adds up to not such a great deal after all.
In terms of advertising ,everyone does the ole ''great price for the 1% of allotted seats'' so often it works out a bit more than that super cheap price you see,but as long as its still good (not to much more)its fair game.(just one of those ad tricks they all use)
As a shareholder you want them to make a tidy profit--As a customer you want a good special on a good airline --Hopefully both of those things can happen

I agree. Of course there's always a share of the market that also wants the cheapest fair possible. On those sectors that otherwise couldn't fill every seat, IMO it makes good business sense to offer a budget product like "seat only" fares. Remember too that unlike the LCC's, that seat could also be purchased by someone with a works/works deluxe package.

[skid]

I agree. Of course there's always a share of the market that also wants the cheapest fair possible. On those sectors that otherwise couldn't fill every seat, IMO it makes good business sense to offer a budget product like "seat only" fares. Remember too that unlike the LCC's, that seat could also be purchased by someone with a works/works deluxe package.

I know what your saying --but somehow its not the same--I still think that rather than accommodate more budgets ,it will just cheapen the look (but i may not be representative of the normal customer base)--IMO meals are a real psychological boost on a long haul--you feel like your being looked after-(thats alot different than knowing they are costing you another $75-$100)-otherwise everything is reduced to cost which is the realm of budget airlines. Lets not forget there are some pretty good airlines doing that route(approx--maybe via KL or BKK) There are other areas that can be used ,like deals with hotels (6 nights package) if they are good at negotiating in that area.
Useing Viet Nam as an example--If they could come up with full service for say $1100 RT I think they would probably get pretty good amount of passengers

Those that want the cheapest fares possible are most likely going to ''rough it'' with Jetstar anyway.

My general approach (for what its worth) is Im not fussed about going with budget on shorter flights(domestic or say BKK-Hanoi) but like to go for a bit better with hopefully a sale on longer haul.

Just as a sidebar-THL looks to be the winner in all this--summer is coming and their chart is that great steady increase look rather than ups and downs--the airlines fighting it out while they reap the benefits of greater competition and the fact that NZ is kind of in that flavor of the month (Year) category--Its our time in the light(like OZ some years back)
I didnt meet anyone while traveling that didnt go starry eyed when I mentioned NZ--(one girl actually said she got chills up her backbone upon mention)--Its easy to forget this when we live here.
We may not be the clean green on the posters but when you go and see the rubbish and commercial decay in some other places,you come to appreciate more what is here.

[winner69]

Hey skid, interesting comment you made: meals are a real psychological boost on a long haul--you feel like your being looked after.

Looked after? And suppose you could call what's dished up a meal

Maybe different in First Class where you hang out

[skid]

Me ,hanging out in first class? Even with ample assets ,thats not gonna happen (I dont think Im psychologically equipped for the high life):)
Ok, the meals are not always great(Thais good) but most of the time its still worth looking forward to (with the exception of those god awful getting woke up at the equivalent of 430am(bleary eyed) for a horrible breakfast of runny omelet and a chicken sausage) Argg!

It also helps to pass the time (even if you dont have a hope in hell of picking up your fork if you drop it with the cramped seating)--It also gives you a chance to stain your light colored pants :(

[Yoda]

I assumed that Sb9 ..I'm also assuming yesterday's low was attributed to that major seller so not many people to feel sorry for...
I can probably blame my longevity in the share market scene in not feeling sorry for many investors especially those looking for a quick buck....especially this guy..A warning for others who play the shorts game (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/help-my-short-position-got-crushed-and-now-i-owe-e-trade-10644556-2015-11-19?dist=afterbell)
Thats a fantastic link. Sorry for all those with shorts , as it were, but what a valuable lesson in greed, and bad luck.

[winner69]

Fair enough skid

Always seems ages for them to collect the left overs eh. I hate the mess sitting in e front of me for ages.

[Beagle]

I'm buying more today at $2.75. Best value share on the NZX by a country mile IMO. All naysayers are most welcome in the famous words of Client Eastwood to "Make my Day" and sell into that.

[brend]

I'm buying more today at $2.75. Best value share on the NZX by a country mile IMO. All naysayers are most welcome in the famous words of Client Eastwood to "Make my Day" and sell into that.

cant be far from a top 10 shareholder !!!

great value and so were those airfares I booked to China last night - $639 each way.

[skid]

I'm buying more today at $2.75. Best value share on the NZX by a country mile IMO. All naysayers are most welcome in the famous words of Client Eastwood to "Make my Day" and sell into that.

Think you might have missed your chance Roger but you may still have a chance(cyclical you know:)---Lets hope this Ebola thing doesnt rear it ugly head again in any numbers. (Liberia)

Anyone know when the VN prices arrive?--- MAL is around $1100+ to BKK (full service) in terms of comparison.

I hope your keeping from putting to many eggs in one basket as nothing is certain is this crazy world we live in--even though AIR looks a reasonable share to own.

[brend]

Tickets will go on sale in early 2016, subject to government and regulatory approvals.

http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/press-release-2015-air-new-zealand-air-new-zealand-to-fly-direct-to-vietnam

Flight time to Vietnam - 11 hours. They will offer full service this is definitely long haul.

[Beagle]

Think you might have missed your chance Roger but you may still have a chance(cyclical you know:)---Lets hope this Ebola thing doesnt rear it ugly head again in any numbers. (Liberia)

Anyone know when the VN prices arrive?--- MAL is around $1100+ to BKK (full service) in terms of comparison.

I hope your keeping from putting to many eggs in one basket as nothing is certain is this crazy world we live in--even though AIR looks a reasonable share to own.

21% portfolio value now mate. Should really leave it at that but the value is so compelling...its very similar to being at a very good smorgasbord for dinner and thinking...maybe I can squeeze in a little bit more :)

[freddagg]

[QUOTE=skid;598339]Think you might have missed your chance Roger but you may still have a chance(cyclical you know:)---Lets hope this Ebola thing doesnt rear it ugly head again in any numbers. (Liberia)

Don't mention Ebola, Roger will be selling the lot.

[Joshuatree]

I'm buying more today at $2.75. Best value share on the NZX by a country mile IMO. All naysayers are most welcome in the famous words of Client Eastwood to "Make my Day" and sell into that.

And to the posters who did this the last two times the s/p was up hereabouts ( check the chart from march); what do you think, risk off? Roller coaster; what is your margin of safety at this price?

[Zaphod]

HY results should be out in February. Christmas/New Year is generally quiet, so the risk IMO is that the SP might decline again. I'll continue to hold but not buying anything further unless there is a major drop.

Depending on your investment horizon, it is still a good buy IMO.

[Beagle]

And to the posters who did this the last two times the s/p was up hereabouts ( check the chart from march); what do you think, risk off? Roller coaster; what is your margin of safety at this price?

Some people will always look at the glass half empty. We've had a record profit since March and it looks set to be even double the FY15 result this year so chart's going back to March are not especially relevant but to the glass half empty brigade it wouldn't matter if AIR made $600m before tax this half and $1.3 billion for the full year...they'd simply say that all the star's aligned once only for AIR and profit will normalise quickly thereafter. One of the major brokers has taken this approach and currently has a reduce rating on AIR with a target price of only $2.50. They think aviation fuel costs will ramp quickly back to normal next year but curiously seem to think the world's airlines won't try and recover any of this extra cost through fuel surcharges or general airfare increases so appear to assume the current slightly lower yields remain unchanged. Warren Buffett doesn't like airlines and neither did Gordon Gekko and besides that they pollute the environment so must by default be a sin stock right ? Consensus broker valuation is $3.03 so anyone fortunate enough to get any at $2.75, (I wasn't today), has about a 10% margin of safety based on consensus valuation which is heavily skewed by one major house that's had a jaundiced view on AIR for quite some time now, (read, they've been wrong for quite some time now).

Craigs are on the money I reckon with their conviction buy rating and $3.40 valuation, (lowest PE ever for AIR of only 4.8 and this in economic conditions that could hardly be described as rosy) and even that assumes oil ramps quickly back up...but does it ?..maybe many of the commodities stay lower for a lot longer.

I guess people could wait for it to go down to $2.40 again before looking to top up or get in but I for one won't be holding my breath for that to happen.

[Joshuatree]

Yes re $2.40 is my margin but each to their own. Despite so many good announcements the s/p hasn't responded ;its gone down and crabbing around atm, why is this, competition increasing,Terrorism ,compression, getting too close to(most) brokers values or?. Im still holding just and hope it really does get some legs ,but there is not enough in it currently for me to take the risk of adding.Until the s/p makes a convincing break up on vol I'm just not sure where it will go, so being careful here. Plus the T/A is not healthy atp

[Beagle]

http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/Migration/IntTravelAndMigration_HOTPOct15.aspx Continuation of strong tourism growth and now net migration is at its highest level ever. I guess all these new residents will want to travel and have their relatives come and visit. AIR's October monthly operating stat's should be out this week.

[stoploss]

Some people will always look at the glass half empty. We've had a record profit since March and it looks set to be even double the FY15 result this year so chart's going back to March are not especially relevant but to the glass half empty brigade it wouldn't matter if AIR made $600m before tax this half and $1.3 billion for the full year...they'd simply say that all the star's aligned once only for AIR and profit will normalise quickly thereafter. One of the major brokers has taken this approach and currently has a reduce rating on AIR with a target price of only $2.50. They think aviation fuel costs will ramp quickly back to normal next year but curiously seem to think the world's airlines won't try and recover any of this extra cost through fuel surcharges or general airfare increases so appear to assume the current slightly lower yields remain unchanged. Warren Buffett doesn't like airlines and neither did Gordon Gekko and besides that they pollute the environment so must by default be a sin stock right ? Consensus broker valuation is $3.03 so anyone fortunate enough to get any at $2.75, (I wasn't today), has about a 10% margin of safety based on consensus valuation which is heavily skewed by one major house that's had a jaundiced view on AIR for quite some time now, (read, they've been wrong for quite some time now).

Craigs are on the money I reckon with their conviction buy rating and $3.40 valuation, (lowest PE ever for AIR of only 4.8 and this in economic conditions that could hardly be described as rosy) and even that assumes oil ramps quickly back up...but does it ?..maybe many of the commodities stay lower for a lot longer.

I guess people could wait for it to go down to $2.40 again before looking to top up or get in but I for one won't be holding my breath for that to happen.

Nobody fortunate @ 2.75 today , 2.755 was the lowest traded.

[winner69]

Yes its a real relief that we are not held hostage to potentially several weeks of Winston Peter's holding the whole country to hostage.
AIR got beaten down to $1.91 at the close on what looks like a day when many stocks were subject to index rebalancing in the final 15 minute match process. They traded most of the day at $1.94.
I expect in the unlikely event of an enquiry into regional fares AIR will easily be able to show that increases are justified based on higher airways and landing fees charges.
I'm expecting a good day on Monday and if for some reason it initially languishes at Friday's close then it's HAMMER time:t_up:

That was September last year (2015) Roger - before the AGM remember

Good buying sub $2 then wasn't it- even then I remember a few saying you being too enthusiastic saying $2 was on the horizon - just like those who think you are too enthusiastic now

Great gains over the last year I reckon -- probably I be posting much the same this time in 2016 when share price is approaching $4

[Biscuit]

That was September last year (2015) Roger - before the AGM remember

Good buying sub $2 then wasn't it- even then I remember a few saying you being too enthusiastic saying $2 was on the horizon - just like those who think you are too enthusiastic now

Great gains over the last year I reckon -- probably I be posting much the same this time in 2016 when share price is approaching $4

You mean 2014? There is no logic in arguing that because someone was wrong in challenging your valuation a year ago, someone else must be wrong in challenging your (higher) valuation now.

[skid]

21% portfolio value now mate. Should really leave it at that but the value is so compelling...its very similar to being at a very good smorgasbord for dinner and thinking...maybe I can squeeze in a little bit more :)

21% sounds reasonable--you dont want to put on to much weight:)

[Joshuatree]

And have bottle of Losec pills handy;)

[Beagle]

That was September last year (2015) Roger - before the AGM remember

Good buying sub $2 then wasn't it- even then I remember a few saying you being too enthusiastic saying $2 was on the horizon - just like those who think you are too enthusiastic now

Great gains over the last year I reckon -- probably I be posting much the same this time in 2016 when share price is approaching $4

Yes mate AIR was fantastic buying in the $1.90's just over a year ago and especially on a risk adjusted basis as by then it was reasonably clear that Ebola was under control.

You mean 2014? There is no logic in arguing that because someone was wrong in challenging your valuation a year ago, someone else must be wrong in challenging your (higher) valuation now.
Its all about earnings. There are many different theories doing the rounds about how oil will do this or that and its effect on AIR. For mine, its about drawing a line in the sand and saying what EPS is AIR capable of earning on a sustained normalised basis without the tailwind of lower oil and I keep coming back to a minimum of 35 cps and an average 10 year PE of 10.5. This is what I see as a minimum and you could easily make arguments for far more and a higher PE seeing as PE's are implicitly interest rate sensitive, (lowest interest rates in 50 years implies a PE of at least 1 more is easily justified)

I've run the ruler over its peer across the Tasman. No matter which way you slice and dice it EPS, growth outlook, Price to book, balance sheet strength AIR looks very cheap relative to its closest peer.
QAN will be subject to ostensibly not dissimilar macro economic influences as AIR so as mentioned previously its completely illogical that analysts covering QAN are ostensibly saying its immune in its future earnings projections to a potential rebound in oil prices whereas N.Z. analysts are saying AIR's earnings get belted. AIR probably the most misunderstood stock on the NZX...you can't imagine that current airfare specials will be as good if oil prices go back up so effectively if yields rise back up by 3-4% over time much of the effect of any increase in oil prices is mitigated.

Has anyone noticed that the cash register is ringing like crazy in soft economic conditions ? Barring a major exogenous shock, in my opinion oil only goes back up when decent world-wide growth is re-established...what ever year that might be, who knows ? and even when it does demand goes up with world-wide growth and so does yield IMO.

[dobby41]

AIR has proven that they are better at managing their costs that QAN.
Also, who's to say what a 'normal' oil price will be for the next 3-5 years.

[Biscuit]

Its all about earnings. There are many different theories doing the rounds about how oil will do this or that and its effect on AIR. For mine, its about drawing a line in the sand and saying what EPS is AIR capable of earning on a sustained normalised basis without the tailwind of lower oil and I keep coming back to a minimum of 35 cps and an average 10 year PE of 10.5. This is what I see as a minimum and you could easily make arguments for far more and a higher PE seeing as PE's are implicitly interest rate sensitive, (lowest interest rates in 50 years implies a PE of at least 1 more is easily justified)

I've run the ruler over its peer across the Tasman. No matter which way you slice and dice it EPS, growth outlook, Price to book, balance sheet strength AIR looks very cheap relative to its closest peer.
QAN will be subject to ostensibly not dissimilar macro economic influences as AIR so as mentioned previously its completely illogical that analysts covering QAN are ostensibly saying its immune in its future earnings projections to a potential rebound in oil prices whereas N.Z. analysts are saying AIR's earnings get belted. AIR probably the most misunderstood stock on the NZX...you can't imagine that current airfare specials will be as good if oil prices go back up so effectively if yields rise back up by 3-4% over time much of the effect of any increase in oil prices is mitigated.

Has anyone noticed that the cash register is ringing like crazy in soft economic conditions ? Barring a major exogenous shock, in my opinion oil only goes back up when decent world-wide growth is re-established...what ever year that might be, who knows ? and even when it does demand goes up with world-wide growth and so does yield IMO.

Now that is a logical argument! - although oil price is as much about supply (manipulated) as demand.

[skid]

Yes re $2.40 is my margin but each to their own. Despite so many good announcements the s/p hasn't responded ;its gone down and crabbing around atm, why is this, competition increasing,Terrorism ,compression, getting too close to(most) brokers values or?. Im still holding just and hope it really does get some legs ,but there is not enough in it currently for me to take the risk of adding.Until the s/p makes a convincing break up on vol I'm just not sure where it will go, so being careful here. Plus the T/A is not healthy atp

I think we can safely assume from recent behavior that a healthy balance sheet ,although important and encouraging,is but one of the factors driving share price.
Obviously from an accountants point of view it is by far the most important--a chartist ,or behavioral psychologist would look at things differently,etc. etc.

So although I wouldnt seriously consider banning anything--it think we could safely pack away our ''glass half empty or full'' ''sad sacks''
''over zealous'' etc. etc. as leading us away from objective observations and conclusions especially if you believe that what we toss up for consideration most likely does not have a huge impact on the SP of a company the size and volume of AIR.
Sometimes (and Im guilty as charged)we throw potential situations out there to debate as it may contribute to our education in terms of how it is debated or answered--(marketing people do this all the time in terms of staying ahead of their competitors--ie thinking ahead of potential problems so they can be dealt with IF they actually arise--so labeling it half empty or sad sack is not really constructive--(but good reasons why its a rubbish thought is fair game)

The ''Ebola'' mention was not meant as scaremongering and it is minor ATM but it was really disappointing to see it spring back up after basically being eradicated.Its certainly something to keep an eye on (without worrying at this stage) as it does have the potential to drastically affect air travel. Last time around it didnt(and even caused some to sell for what turned out to be nothing)but its relevant to point out that Ebola itself did not progress like we feared(whew!)so it wasnt really put to the test--lets hope nothing come of this new development but in this world of mutations it seemed worth mentioning--Not to worry atm.

I have a friend who just arrived on one of the big airbuses and said it was really comfortable (Emirates)--not sure how this stacks up with the dream liners and what the seating arrangement is, compared with them, and AIR but it was interesting to hear.

It will be interesting see what the fares are to Viet Nam (thanx Brend) I may give them a go if they can compete with MAL if their seating stacks up (one thing I liked about MAL was that they let me choose my seat months ahead of time (got right up front of economy with window and aisle for the two of us) and lots of room +and generous baggage allowance)--they also have a pretty good cancellation arrangement (Its manageable instead of losing the ticket like some bargain priced tickets)---so theres a few things to compare to.--If AIR can get away with less and still fill their planes then great for the accountants but maybe not for me--Im your feedback from a customer point of view ,rather than a Shareholder (at this stage)

[allfromacell]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/273941

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/273941

Good solid numbers.

[brend]

Good solid numbers.

demand up but yields down - could you clarify for me please?

[stoploss]

demand up but yields down - could you clarify for me please?


Competition , they sold more tickets at a reduced price most likely.

[Beagle]

demand up but yields down - could you clarify for me please?

Certainly mate. Yield is the net price received per RPK (revenue passenger kilometre) flown. When you buy an attractively priced ticket to China for circa $600 each way they're making less per kilometre flown than if they sell one at the regular price.

As oil prices have fallen we've seen some decline in $N.Z yields received for the YTD of about 1.5%. On a currency adjusted basis (if the $Kiwi hadn't fallen), net yields received are down 4.5% YTD compared to last year so the lower Kiwi dollar has mitigated the effects of yield reduction because about 45% of air tickets are sold in foreign currency.

Internationally we've seen many airlines suffering greater yield reductions, (Airlines passing on the benefits of lower fuel prices and boosting demand by doing so), and AIR's yields have held up well in the face of competition in my opinion. This is supportive of the argument I made earlier this morning. If and / or when oil goes back up airlines will look to increase yields to recover their increasing fuel prices.

Worth noting that RPK's on a group wide basis are up over 13% YTD, so the top line even after a 1.5% net yield reduction is growing at circa 11.5%. I can't ever remember the airline growing at that rate before. With the top line growing at that rate and a stable operating cost basis the economies of scale quickly grow and that's why the airline is so confident of doubling last year's record profit in the current period. Confident of exceeding $400m in the current period v just over $200m last year.

[mikeybycrikey]

Thanks for that detailed description Roger. Just one question. When you say "Net price received per RPK", what do you mean by "net"? Net of what?

Seems like a simple question that I should know the answer to. But I don't.

[Beagle]

You're most welcome mate. Costs include commission paid to travel agents although I understand this is often passed on to customers and internet sales are becoming increasingly popular and the taxes incorporated within airline ticket prices, (departure taxes). e.g. Australian departure tax if I remember correctly is now $55 and the Australian Govt make airlines include it with their ticket prices.

[winner69]

Even the Qantas and AA guys admire Air NZ

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/74326017/air-new-zealand-targets-qantas-and-american-airlines-in-latest-video

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=11550367

And Taylor Swift flies AIR N.Z. (Hope they got her to do a new music video for AIR).

[stoploss]

This is not good news for the worldwide travel industry. ...

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/74349099/us-issues-worldwide-travel-alert-as-terror-threat-grows

[Beagle]

This is not good news for the worldwide travel industry. ...

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/74349099/us-issues-worldwide-travel-alert-as-terror-threat-grows

No but its all relative to other forms of transportation...chances of getting killed in a car accident per kilometre travelled are many many times higher. (Off for a healthy lunch now, note chances of dying by heart disease :eek2:
All figures below are for U.S. residents.

Cause of Death Lifetime Odds

Heart Disease

1-in-5

Cancer 1-in-7
Stroke 1-in-23
Accidental Injury 1-in-36
Motor Vehicle Accident*1-in-100
Intentional Self-harm (suicide) 1-in-121
Falling Down 1-in-246
Assault by Firearm 1-in-325
Fire or Smoke 1-in-1,116
Natural Forces (heat, cold, storms, quakes, etc.) 1-in-3,357
Electrocution* 1-in-5,000
Drowning 1-in-8,942
Air Travel Accident* 1-in-20,000
Flood* (included also in Natural Forces above) 1-in-30,000
Legal Execution 1-in-58,618
Tornado* (included also in Natural Forces above) 1-in-60,000
Lightning Strike (included also in Natural Forces above) 1-in-83,930
Snake, Bee or other Venomous Bite or Sting* 1-in-100,000
Earthquake (included also in Natural Forces above) 1-in-131,890
Dog Attack 1-in-147,717
Asteroid Impact* 1-in-200,000**
Tsunami* 1-in-500,000
Fireworks Discharge 1-in-615,488

[stoploss]

No but its all relative to other forms of transportation...chances of getting killed in a car accident per kilometre travelled are many many times higher. (Off for a healthy lunch now, note chances of dying by heart disease :eek2:
All figures below are for U.S. residents.

Cause of Death Lifetime Odds

Heart Disease

1-in-5

Cancer 1-in-7
Stroke 1-in-23
Accidental Injury 1-in-36
Motor Vehicle Accident*1-in-100
Intentional Self-harm (suicide) 1-in-121
Falling Down 1-in-246
Assault by Firearm 1-in-325
Fire or Smoke 1-in-1,116
Natural Forces (heat, cold, storms, quakes, etc.) 1-in-3,357
Electrocution* 1-in-5,000
Drowning 1-in-8,942
Air Travel Accident* 1-in-20,000
Flood* (included also in Natural Forces above) 1-in-30,000
Legal Execution 1-in-58,618
Tornado* (included also in Natural Forces above) 1-in-60,000
Lightning Strike (included also in Natural Forces above) 1-in-83,930
Snake, Bee or other Venomous Bite or Sting* 1-in-100,000
Earthquake (included also in Natural Forces above) 1-in-131,890
Dog Attack 1-in-147,717
Asteroid Impact* 1-in-200,000**
Tsunami* 1-in-500,000
Fireworks Discharge 1-in-615,488

Is there someone a little more mathematically inclined that could explain these "odds" in my lifetime I know a great number of people have died due to Tsunami, you hear of many deaths in China from fireworks factories exploding ( not sure if that counts ) . However I can't recall a single person hit by an asteroid .
I think you have your fill @ 2.75 now Roger .

[Joshuatree]

Yep , BACK UP THE TRUCK !!!, but watch out for the ABYSS i mean AIRBUS!.
Another good" announcement and another day down, WHY?

[theace]

Yep , BACK UP THE TRUCK !!!, but watch out for the ABYSS i mean AIRBUS!.
Another good" announcement and another day down, WHY?

I am guessing its the US issuing worldwide travel alert. I would have thought it'll be better for us, as more travelers heading this way.

[Biscuit]

Is there someone a little more mathematically inclined that could explain these "odds" in my lifetime I know a great number of people have died due to Tsunami, you hear of many deaths in China from fireworks factories exploding ( not sure if that counts ) . However I can't recall a single person hit by an asteroid .


The estimated odds of being killed by an asteroid are high relative to the number of people who have ever been hit by one (probably close to zero) because when the earth is hit again by a really large asteroid, a significantly large number of people (possibly everyone then living) will die.

[freddagg]

Is there someone a little more mathematically inclined that could explain these "odds" in my lifetime I know a great number of people have died due to Tsunami, you hear of many deaths in China from fireworks factories exploding ( not sure if that counts ) . However I can't recall a single person hit by an asteroid .
I think you have your fill @ 2.75 now Roger .

Rogers figures were for USA residents

[Yoda]

I assume aircraft are insured against acts of terrorism ... Or not? Mmm . Must check my life insurance for that one.

[Marilyn Munroe]

I have a friend who just arrived on one of the big airbuses and said it was really comfortable (Emirates)--not sure how this stacks up with the dream liners and what the seating arrangement is, compared with them, and AIR but it was interesting to hear.


Passengers like this aircraft. If a competitor intrduces them on North American routes Cullen Airlines will loose market share and pricing power.

The board at Cullen Ailines need not sing a waiata about this though. Queer and Nasty Airlines have gone cold on this aircraft the North American airlines have a "not invented here" prejudice against them and the sand state airlines wont be able to use them on this route as meere mention of their names make airline lobbyists and thair handmaidens in the US Congress foam at the mouth.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Beagle]

Nothing like a good travel alert to shake out the weak holders and those scared of an abyss. Pulled my order back to $2.71 in light of this and got a fill anyway and very happy with that. Time for some quick-eze now to ease the indigestion :)

[thestg]

I bought back 1/3 at $2.75, 1/3 at $2.71 & and got an order for 1/3 at $2.60 (If it ever goes that low again). I'm so annoyed I sold out at $2.61 but that's the way it goes. Have now set my stop loss at $2.00 with a slower moving trailing stop loss. Now I think I will sit back & wait for some dividends in March to repay some of my loan.

[Beagle]

Given we're looking at profit doubling in the current half compared to last year I'm expecting a commensurate increase in the interim dividend, (last year 6.5 cps) especially given they're currently enjoying an oil price tailwind so 13 cps fully imputed in March plus a possible interim special divvy and I'm expecting them to slightly increase last year's final of 9.5 cps, say 13 cps and pay a special of not less than 10 cps at the time of the final divvy in September 2016 so all up about 36 cps fully imputed. 36 / 0.72 = 50 cents gross.

This would amount to about a 60% pay-out ratio inclusive of the special which is well within the bounds of their financial resources while contemporaneously retaining ample funds for fleet acquisitions to facilitate route growth and fleet modernisation and this would give a gross dividend yield of 18.4% on the current price of $2.71.

I'd say that gives anyone buying AIR shares using debt a pretty comfortable margin of safety and an exceptionally positive net yield.

Disc: I don't mix debt and equity and an 18.4% yield gives me an extremely robust margin of safety compared to the 2.5%, (shortly to be 2.25% gross, and in early 2016 2.00%) I'm currently "enjoying" on my call account funds.

[winner69]

Yep , BACK UP THE TRUCK !!!, but watch out for the ABYSS i mean AIRBUS!.
Another good" announcement and another day down, WHY?

JT - you a fan of U2

Great album that The Joshua Tree. Fav track is "I still haven't found what I'm looking for"

The tree featured on the album cover fell over and recently been vandalised much to the chagrin of dedicated U2 fans

[RTM]

Disc: I don't mix debt and equity and an 18.4% yield gives me an extremely robust margin of safety compared to the 2.5%, (shortly to be 2.25% gross, and in early 2016 2.00%) I'm currently "enjoying" on my call account funds.

Presume you are aware that Heartland have a 3.6% call account. It all helps, even if it is still a bit miserable.

[Snow Leopard]

...Its all about earnings. There are many different theories doing the rounds about how oil will do this or that and its effect on AIR. For mine, its about drawing a line in the sand and saying what EPS is AIR capable of earning on a sustained normalised basis without the tailwind of lower oil and I keep coming back to a minimum of 35 cps and an average 10 year PE of 10.5. This is what I see as a minimum and you could easily make arguments for far more and a higher PE seeing as PE's are implicitly interest rate sensitive, (lowest interest rates in 50 years implies a PE of at least 1 more is easily justified)

So 35cps based on what price for a barrel of Plane Juice and what NZ/US exchange rate?

You can currently fill up your Airbus for about half the US$ price of 18 months ago but the exchange rate has gone from 0.8 to 0.65.


I've run the ruler over its peer across the Tasman. No matter which way you slice and dice it EPS, growth outlook, Price to book, balance sheet strength AIR looks very cheap relative to its closest peer.
QAN will be subject to ostensibly not dissimilar macro economic influences as AIR so as mentioned previously its completely illogical that analysts covering QAN are ostensibly saying its immune in its future earnings projections to a potential rebound in oil prices whereas N.Z. analysts are saying AIR's earnings get belted. AIR probably the most misunderstood stock on the NZX...

This I am going to get printed, framed and then I am going to hang it on my office wall.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[WingingIt]

Good for profits - http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/74369960/kiwi-regional-air-axes-queenstown-to-dunedin-flights

[winner69]

Good for profits - http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/74369960/kiwi-regional-air-axes-queenstown-to-dunedin-flights

And AIR has axed Paraparaumu- Chch

If punters no want to fly planes won't fly

[Joshuatree]

JT - you a fan of U2

Great album that The Joshua Tree. Fav track is "I still haven't found what I'm looking for"

The tree featured on the album cover fell over and recently been vandalised much to the chagrin of dedicated U2 fans

We have discussed U2 a whiles back.To repeat i like the odd song but have never owned an album( or something like that). Joshua tree national monument in the south West USA is def a bucket list destination imo.
Do you trade both ways w69 or is it harder /not possible in NZ?.

[winner69]

skid - I have a friend who just arrived on one of the big airbuses and said it was really comfortable (Emirates)--not sure how this stacks up with the dream liners and what the seating arrangement is, compared with them, and AIR but it was interesting to hear.

Yes, as planes go an awesome thing (and better than Dreamliners)

But 14 hours plus Singapore / London in one is still not a really enjoyable experience

[Beagle]

So 35cps based on what price for a barrel of Plane Juice and what NZ/US exchange rate?

You can currently fill up your Airbus for about half the US$ price of 18 months ago but the exchange rate has gone from 0.8 to 0.65.



This I am going to get printed, framed and then I am going to hang it on my office wall.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Glad you hold my comment in such high esteem PT. Based on 20 year average Goldilocks level of 65 cents and a presumed new normal, (whatever and whenever that is) when the oil glut finishes of $80 barrel.

Anyway seeing as we had a decent correction today and I nabbed some more at $2.71 I thought I'd better update my spreadsheet to make sure I have a decent safety margin. Average cost is now $2.225.

Pretty sure I've found what I'm looking for with this stock :)

P.S. I reckon that Saab 340 will make a reasonable display addition at MOTAT in due course...actually speaking of museum pieces and display's I see AIR N.Z. has opened its 75th anniversary display at Auckland Museum, so get along and enjoy a great free exhibition.

[Snow Leopard]

Glad you hold my comment in such high esteem PT. Based on 20 year average Goldilocks level of 65 cents and a presumed new normal, (whatever and whenever that is) when the oil glut finishes of $80 barrel....

0.65 NZ/US and $80/bbl (for crude) and I have $0.358 eps for FY17. :)

Consensus forecasts are for a nice genteel rise in oil prices over the next ten years; and that the reality will be different.

Such are the uncertainties of life. :mellow:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

DISC: No airline stocks held.

[Zaphod]

The situation with Russia v Turkey certainly won't help airline stocks at least in the short term. Russia have been very provocative as of late, but this time they appear to have been called on it.

Let's hope that diplomatic action results, rather than retaliatory action against Turkey who then requests NATO assistance.

[skid]

I dont know what the US is up to with their ''international travel warning'' but its obviously not great for the travel industry.
This ''terrorist attack imminent'' could have all sorts of reasons ,even just an excuse to beef up NSA type programs designed further erode our privacy and freedom.If thats the case,it would be a damn shame if travel becomes the collateral damage.
Hopefully its not a prelude to the real thing--I found it disturbing that JK opened his big mouth spouting off about the possibility of those being potential threats here--just renforces that we are part of the game being played with our new western ''mates''--even if there are some who pose a minutely possible threat why blurb it out on the news which only erodes what is a pretty good and tolerant society here in NZ with emotional stirring up.---Reminds me of the "your either with us or against us''by GW Bush

[Bjauck]

I always thought they were our "old" Western mates with which we had a falling out over when we unilaterally tried to avoid the nuclear aspect of modern armaments and propulsion.

I am not sure if it would be in Russia's interests to force a showdown with NATO over helping its Syrian ally. However, it does go to show how prospering airlline stocks do rely on a peaceful world for travellers and cheap fuel. I do not believe (yet!) that (democratic western) governments deliberately invent perpetual threats so that they can push through unpopular measures a la "1984".

[Beagle]

Yes, as planes go an awesome thing (and better than Dreamliners)

But 14 hours plus Singapore / London in one is still not a really enjoyable experience

Both fine aircraft and offer a substantial improvement in many ways over conventional aircraft. Main difference I think you experienced was in the relative fit-out of the two aircraft by two different airlines.
Singapore have an especially generous fit-out with their A380's with only circa 383 seats on this large aircraft and a generous, (by modern standards) pitch and their seat width in economy is very good at 19 inches.
Nothing comes for free with airlines and Singapore are seldom anywhere near the cheapest airline to fly with and often one of the most expensive. AIR's configuration of their Dreamliner's is designed to be relatively comfortable while maximising efficiency and profitability, something shareholders should be pleased about. My money is on the Russia Turkey thing to settle down...many would argue, (should that be debate ?) that the Russian military are well and truly overdue to have their wings clipped a bit. I also think that the European immigration crisis and terrorism threat could well be a neutral thing for AIR as people hanker to still travel and enjoy themselves...to much safer, cleaner and less crowded region's like Australia and N.Z.

[skid]

I always thought they were our "old" Western mates with which we had a falling out over when we unilaterally tried to avoid the nuclear aspect of modern armaments and propulsion.

I am not sure if it would be in Russia's interests to force a showdown with NATO over helping its Syrian ally. However, it does go to show how prospering airlline stocks do rely on a peaceful world for travellers and cheap fuel. I do not believe (yet!) that (democratic western) governments deliberately invent perpetual threats so that they can push through unpopular measures a la "1984".

Whether they invent things is probably more far fetched than taking advantage of,but neither is out of the question--I do believe the NSA has a different viewpoint on what the rules of the game are than most ordinary reasonable people--Tapping the phones of major European leaders seems a bit on the dark side to me but each would have their own viewpoint on how far is acceptable. IMO the ''war on terror'' whether completely justified is certainly profitable for some.
I wouldnt think Russia would intentionally lock horns with Nato to the point of all out conflict--They are making a statement with Syria though and would no doubt like to see the price of oil rise.

I think international conflicts should at least be kept and eye on for shareholders of an airline stock(without panicking)

The international travel warning includes all areas, but NZ would certainly be farther down the list (unless JK keeps blabbing on enough to make it an ''it could even happen here scenario'' )god forbid---He is certainly not helping things for AIR or the country IMO,or neutrality for that matter.---I do believe that general uneasiness about travel rubs off on all,rather than everyone flocking to NZ. (and of course AIR flies to alot of places incl. Europe)
but no reason for panic--just something to be aware of.

(notice THL is down 2.7%) ??

Update--Geez! I didnt see this before---getting a bit tense---as if the ISIS thing was'nt enough.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/nov/24/russian-jet-downed-by-turkish-planes-near-syrian-border-live-updates

[brend]

The international travel warning includes all areas, but NZ would certainly be farther down the list (unless JK keeps blabbing on enough to make it an ''it could even happen here scenario'' )god forbid---He is certainly not helping things for AIR or the country IMO,or neutrality for that matter.---I do believe that general uneasiness about travel rubs off on all,rather than everyone flocking to NZ. (and of course AIR flies to alot of places incl. Europe)
but no reason for panic--just something to be aware of.

I never really understood the purpose of the US making an international travel warning. Any 'real people' would realise there is an uncontrollable terrorism risk regardless where they might be in the world. I don't support terrorism but no matter how much we try to monitor and prevent these events from happening they can and will happen.

[skid]

I never really understood the purpose of the US making an international travel warning. Any 'real people' would realise there is an uncontrollable terrorism risk regardless where they might be in the world. I don't support terrorism but no matter how much we try to monitor and prevent these events from happening they can and will happen.

Makes a bit of a mockery of ''we will carry on and not be intimidated''

[Beagle]

Well SP is up a bit so either Couta1 is buying again or others out there think Russia will suck it up and let the ironies of natural justice regarding MH17 play themselves out and thus no effect on AIR.

[dobby41]

I never really understood the purpose of the US making an international travel warning. Any 'real people' would realise there is an uncontrollable terrorism risk regardless where they might be in the world. I don't support terrorism but no matter how much we try to monitor and prevent these events from happening they can and will happen.

But surely there is more risk in some places than others.
The US warning doesn't really differentiate one place for another.
Just as much risk in NZ as Syria as Paris as Nice.

[Onion]

Just as much risk in NZ as Syria as Paris as Nice.

Absolutely wrong. Particularly for Syria. I would agree that the risks of coming to harm in Paris or Nice is still relatively low but it is currently higher than in NZ.



Crossing borders in the EU is much easier (even with the likely restrictions following Paris) than crossing the border into NZ.
Obtaining automatic guns in the US is much easier than in NZ.
Getting hit by a Russian/US/French/Syrian/ISIS/other missile/drone/rocket in Syria is significantly more likely than in NZ.


Risks vary from place to place and time to time around the world. New Zealand will rank as one of the safest places in the world to travel to.

[brend]

But surely there is more risk in some places than others.
The US warning doesn't really differentiate one place for another.
Just as much risk in NZ as Syria as Paris as Nice.

It was kinda a unnecessary warning...Terrorism risk in today environment is implied now? its nothing new like a virus breakout.

Different countries have different risk profiles.

NZ would be considered safer than the US. Most people would agree with that.

I guess for the time we will have external factors driving volatility in the share price. AIR fundamentals remain strong and people will continue to travel.

[dobby41]

Sorry my point was that the US advisory doesn't differentiate between places now (with a WW alert) so according to the advisory the risk is the same everywhere.
Which as you say is wrong.