View Full Version : AIR - Air NZ.
On a beautiful still evening on Wednesday last week my wife and I flew back from Queenstown and enjoyed the very friendly company of a Canadian tourist beside us in 1C. The flight service manager and attendant were very friendly and professional and the day was made all the more perfect by the 6.5 cent SP rise to finally crack $3 in reasonably convincing fashion.
Renee was happy to serve us another wine on the Koru hour flight, (who knew what was left after the initial passenger service was tipped down the drain ?), and all seemed extremely well with the world.
So I got to thinking...why has the SP been so strong against such a backdrop of thunderclouds wherever you look and what is it about AIR that's so special ? Initial thoughts.
1. We live in a really beautiful country. Really the clarity and purity of Lake Wakitipu is just as superb as I remember it 40 years ago as a kid, (same for Lake Taupo)
2. Queenstown is really going off in a huge way
3. The staff you meet on AIR flights seem to be happy with their jobs and are very friendly and professional, (lets be honest all airlines use similar hardware so its the people and attitude that make a difference
4. I enjoy flying on an airline where I have a meaningful stake and I am sure other Kiwi's enjoy flying their national airline
5. Clearly the market is anticipating a ripper half year result
6. I suspect a lot of baby boomer's have extra time and money on their hands now the kids have left home and are well and truly cognisant of the fact that due to the phenomenon of hedonic adaption, stuff per se doesn't make you happy but varied and interesting travel experiences with family and friends does.
7. With cheaper fuel airfares are coming down and I think people are travelling more.
With so much pollution, crowding, security and other issues elsewhere in the world I think N.Z. tourism has a very bright future especially now our $Kiwi is at a more attractive level.
Anyway that's FWIW my further musings last week...obviously as previously posted I hold the management team in the highest regard and the balance sheet and cash flow are extremely robust. I'm looking forward to the half year result and flying again with AIR soon.
Queenstown is certainly a fun trip. A couple of observations on tourism having traveled the south Island over the holidays and have clients in the sector:
1. More Chinese independent travellers than i have every seen before..tourist operators agree however capacity constrained on hotel/motel accommodation. They can't see any further growth without increased core infrastructure. Also a lot of kiwis missed out on accommodation by not book far enough ahead for the holidays. If the trend continues we will have all have to plan to a greater degree in the future.
Think this point certainly can be considered an issue for the North Island as well. Been a while since Auckland has had a new five star hotel..although some now in the pipeline.
Beagle
22-01-2016, 07:29 AM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11577606
Two analysts upgrade to $3.40.
Agreed Raz. Car parking and traffic congestion also becoming quite problematic in Queenstown.
winner69
22-01-2016, 08:09 AM
Man on radio this morning commenting on the 10 year high shareprice said 'AIR is the diamond of the NZX' (along with SKC)
December operating stats will be interesting
Beagle
22-01-2016, 09:06 AM
Man on radio this morning commenting on the 10 year high shareprice said 'AIR is the diamond of the NZX' (along with SKC)
December operating stats will be interesting
Yes mate they will be and are due imminently and I wouldn't be surprised to see upgraded guidance at the same time, (Qan provided same with their Nov operating stat's on 15 Dec $875m - $925m from $367m in pcp).
Mid point if AIR match QAN's growth in EPS we will see $530m underlying before contribution from Virgin up from $216m in pcp. Its interesting however to note that QAN have grown rpk's by 4.7% but AIR have grown rpk's by a whopping 12.2%, their fastest rate of growth in their 75 year history. Join the dots but it arguers very well for the current half and future earnings IMO.
I am sticking with my $1,000m underlying earnings for the full year for now, (plus VAH contribution of $A40-50m)
Expect more analyst upgrades to follow soon including Craigs upgrading higher from $3.40..(Credit to Craigs analyst...been on the money with this stock for some time now)
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11577606
Two analysts upgrade to $3.40.
Agreed Raz. Car parking and traffic congestion also becoming quite problematic in Queenstown.
Now with direct flights from China it will only get better/worse depending how you look at it--IMO Queenstown is under threat--the very thing that makes it nice is slowly being replaced with hoards of tourists---its a catch 22---Most locals go elsewhere to live (than the main town)--The area will always be stunningly beautiful,but the town is getting a bit full on---good for business though---(not sure AIR will be among those direct flights)
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11577606
Two analysts upgrade to $3.40.
Seem to be heading in right direction @3.15 now, won't be big surprise if gets close to 3.30 or so by the time results are due next month.
On a beautiful still evening on Wednesday last week my wife and I flew back from Queenstown and enjoyed the very friendly company of a Canadian tourist beside us in 1C. The flight service manager and attendant were very friendly and professional and the day was made all the more perfect by the 6.5 cent SP rise to finally crack $3 in reasonably convincing fashion.
Renee was happy to serve us another wine on the Koru hour flight, (who knew what was left after the initial passenger service was tipped down the drain ?), and all seemed extremely well with the world.
So I got to thinking...why has the SP been so strong against such a backdrop of thunderclouds wherever you look and what is it about AIR that's so special ? Initial thoughts.
1. We live in a really beautiful country. Really the clarity and purity of Lake Wakitipu is just as superb as I remember it 40 years ago as a kid, (same for Lake Taupo)
2. Queenstown is really going off in a huge way
3. The staff you meet on AIR flights seem to be happy with their jobs and are very friendly and professional, (lets be honest all airlines use similar hardware so its the people and attitude that make a difference
4. I enjoy flying on an airline where I have a meaningful stake and I am sure other Kiwi's enjoy flying their national airline
5. Clearly the market is anticipating a ripper half year result
6. I suspect a lot of baby boomer's have extra time and money on their hands now the kids have left home and are well and truly cognisant of the fact that due to the phenomenon of hedonic adaption, stuff per se doesn't make you happy but varied and interesting travel experiences with family and friends does.
7. With cheaper fuel airfares are coming down and I think people are travelling more.
With so much pollution, crowding, security and other issues elsewhere in the world I think N.Z. tourism has a very bright future especially now our $Kiwi is at a more attractive level.
Anyway that's FWIW my further musings last week...obviously as previously posted I hold the management team in the highest regard and the balance sheet and cash flow are extremely robust. I'm looking forward to the half year result and flying again with AIR soon.
Roger Welcome back. A big thanks on your thoughts re AIR since I joined this thread,$$$$.
I was recently talking with a gentleman who was involved with the partial sale of QZN, 1mill travelers last year and he sees little upside there as hotels at max capacity and at least 4 years from concept to construction of a new one.
Beagle
22-01-2016, 01:32 PM
Roger Welcome back. A big thanks on your thoughts re AIR since I joined this thread,$$$$.
I was recently talking with a gentleman who was involved with the partial sale of QZN, 1mill travelers last year and he sees little upside there as hotels at max capacity and at least 4 years from concept to construction of a new one.
You're welcome mate and I see you've done alright since buying in early December around $2.80. I agree that Queenstown in mid January is just absolutely nuts and too busy and I think that's one of the reasons why Tourism N.Z. is embarking on a major marketing campaign aimed at boosting shoulder season tourism.
http://www.tourismnewzealand.com/news/tourism-new-zealand-strategic-update-roadshow-november-2015/
Speaking of Queenstown, I see your favourite bit of road Winner has been named the third most dangerous road in the world
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11577944 Interesting to note that the fifth most dangerous road in the world is called Death Road :eek2:
Just looking early for booking to Southeast Asia-(Jun-Sept)--MAL AK-BK=$1140 Thai -AK-Bk=$1450 .....Looked for the new AK-Viet Nam AIR ...Came out to $1950 (forgot the exact amount).....Am I missing something???
You're welcome mate and I see you've done alright since buying in early December around $2.80. I agree that Queenstown in mid January is just absolutely nuts and too busy and I think that's one of the reasons why Tourism N.Z. is embarking on a major marketing campaign aimed at boosting shoulder season tourism.
http://www.tourismnewzealand.com/news/tourism-new-zealand-strategic-update-roadshow-november-2015/
Speaking of Queenstown, I see your favourite bit of road Winner has been named the third most dangerous road in the world
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11577944 Interesting to note that the fifth most dangerous road in the world is called Death Road :eek2:
My Daughter rode a bike(rented)on that road (Bolivia)---I dont think I would want to be on a bus or truck though
winner69
23-01-2016, 09:54 AM
Note the share price hit 319 yesterday before a close at 316
Up more than 25% since saying $400m H1 earnings will be $400m plus
Heck what will happen when it is $500m plus
Note the share price hit 319 yesterday before a close at 316
Up more than 25% since saying $400m H1 earnings will be $400m plus
Heck what will happen when it is $500m plus
With overseas markets acting as they have this year really though it would effect our market, proven wrong so far, actually holding a lot more cash after selling half my holding in everything, as you say made a great return after buying in after the announcement so no worries. Still have 35,000 shares in AIR so we shall see....
Just looking early for booking to Southeast Asia-(Jun-Sept)--MAL AK-BK=$1140 Thai -AK-Bk=$1450 .....Looked for the new AK-Viet Nam AIR ...Came out to $1950 (forgot the exact amount).....Am I missing something???
You know you are not missing a thing...they are cocky
Beagle
23-01-2016, 09:03 PM
Skid just fly with whoever makes you feel you're going to have a fantastic holiday..(its not always about who's cheapest) and have a great time
http://viewfromabove.emirates.com/3d/city/vietnam/detail
For those holidaying at home this year
http://viewfromabove.emirates.com/3d/city/new-zealand/detail
Yeshiva
24-01-2016, 08:53 AM
Firstly, if you had to give me a choice between flying Auckland-Southeast Asia between Air NZ and Malaysia Airlines, there is no way on Gods green earth my wife would let me book a Malaysian Airlines ticket. Illogical perhaps, but that's the way it is. In that regard, Air NZ might be at the market price, and Malaysia might be discounting heavily to win business back after their calamities.
Secondly, Air NZ doesn't seem that bad price wise - I just looked up Air NZ to Bangkok (AKL-SIN-BKK) for June 1, and the economy ticket came to $954. The SIN-BKK leg was with Singapore Airlines.
Mickey
24-01-2016, 09:12 AM
Firstly, if you had to give me a choice between flying Auckland-Southeast Asia between Air NZ and Malaysia Airlines, there is no way on Gods green earth my wife would let me book a Malaysian Airlines ticket. Illogical perhaps, but that's the way it is. In that regard, Air NZ might be at the market price, and Malaysia might be discounting heavily to win business back after their calamities.
Secondly, Air NZ doesn't seem that bad price wise - I just looked up Air NZ to Bangkok (AKL-SIN-BKK) for June 1, and the economy ticket came to $954. The SIN-BKK leg was with Singapore Airlines.
I use AIR whenever I can but sometimes I have to use other airlines because the price differential is just too great. Last week - I missed out on the AIR promo to the US by 1 day and on the dates in May that I wanted to travel - the fare for 2 was $3,800. However, I found fares with Virgin Australia for the same dates for $2,700, which I took. The downside is having to travel from Wellington to Brisbane to pick up our US bound flight but a grand is a grand and I can tolerate that inconvenience for the saving, which covers our internal US flights. I'd love AIR to offer price matching in the same way as you can go into stores like JB Hi Fi or Noel Leemings and show the price of a product from a competitor and usually they'll match or better it.
Discl. Holding AIR and loving current SP with hopefully plenty more upside and a nice juicy divvy to boot
Skid just fly with whoever makes you feel you're going to have a fantastic holiday..(its not always about who's cheapest) and have a great time
http://viewfromabove.emirates.com/3d/city/vietnam/detail
For those holidaying at home this year
http://viewfromabove.emirates.com/3d/city/new-zealand/detail
I will certainly do that---Just though it would be beneficial to look from the customer point of view
They are obviously doing well--but can always do better
Firstly, if you had to give me a choice between flying Auckland-Southeast Asia between Air NZ and Malaysia Airlines, there is no way on Gods green earth my wife would let me book a Malaysian Airlines ticket. Illogical perhaps, but that's the way it is. In that regard, Air NZ might be at the market price, and Malaysia might be discounting heavily to win business back after their calamities.
Secondly, Air NZ doesn't seem that bad price wise - I just looked up Air NZ to Bangkok (AKL-SIN-BKK) for June 1, and the economy ticket came to $954. The SIN-BKK leg was with Singapore Airlines.
I dont agree about the market price--i flew MAL last year and they were fine (and I would have flown Air NZ after Erebus)
Even Thai was considerably cheaper and (sorry) but from a customers point of view ,they leave AIR in the dust---but if they(AIR) are filling up their planes then good on them--(cant help but think there are others like me as well though)--and isnt this suppose to be the era of cheaper air travel from cheap oil and more efficient planes?
Yeshiva--If that $954 AK SIN-BKK is round trip then thats more like it and I would certainly go for that. (unless it was totally crap schedule---sometimes you get those 36hrs for an essentially 11hr flgt)
Maybe I was mistaken in thinking that they(AIR) would have given a good price on a new route.
They are raking it in atm ,but one must always at least try to project the future,eh?
If they are really competitive on other routes,(or have a monopoly,or have unusually good comfort and or service,then that helps validate the price,other wise ,where is the value?
What % of travelers disregard the price in favor of just plain dedication to the brand?
These are just thoughts to consider if the tide changes (they may well hit a new high in profit so of course holding makes sense for now.)
I always try to think outside the box ,even to the annoyance of some
Disc-I have flown several times to Vancouver with AIR and my wife may do so again as they do seem to have that route somewhat monopolized and going through the States stinks IMO (service at that time was friendly but cramped,and it was freezing on the return trip)--possibly better plane now?
Beagle
24-01-2016, 10:04 AM
Firstly, if you had to give me a choice between flying Auckland-Southeast Asia between Air NZ and Malaysia Airlines, there is no way on Gods green earth my wife would let me book a Malaysian Airlines ticket. Illogical perhaps, but that's the way it is. In that regard, Air NZ might be at the market price, and Malaysia might be discounting heavily to win business back after their calamities.
Secondly, Air NZ doesn't seem that bad price wise - I just looked up Air NZ to Bangkok (AKL-SIN-BKK) for June 1, and the economy ticket came to $954. The SIN-BKK leg was with Singapore Airlines.
They are and I think you've nailed it, you get what you pay for. I don't know how others do it but FWIW I don't shop Hotels, rental cars or restaurants solely based on price alone either.
Skid there are no absolute answers to your questions mate. Some people will always shop based on price alone and many others will shop based on a wide range of others factors including reputation and which airline they trust. The bottom line is AIR's planes have high average load factors and the airline is doing extremely well so clearly they are doing many things right.
They are and I think you've nailed it, you get what you pay for. I don't know how others do it but FWIW I don't shop Hotels, rental cars or restaurants solely based on price alone either.
Skid there are no absolute answers to your questions mate. Some people will always shop based on price alone and many others will shop based on a wide range of others factors including reputation and which airline they trust. The bottom line is AIR's planes have high average load factors and the airline is doing extremely well so clearly they are doing many things right.
MAL was every bit as good as AIR in terms of the product so I believe it is more superstition than getting what you pay for in that case(and then there is Thai air,still considerably cheaper)
Its not price alone--Jetstar would be a big miss...(Its value)
but im just thinking ahead --not here to rain on your picnic and they are ,as you say doing very well at this time,but I would venture to say that my ''shopping for a good airline with a good price'' would beat you shopping by reputation (with the exception of some 3rd world 2 bit local airline)
I would have been happy to support AIR ,but c'mon ,an extra $800?... (would you have for an extra $800(MAL) $500 (Thai)?--but they seem to be making it work so its good for the balance sheet.
Almost all airlines are doing extremely well though..--enjoy
Beagle
24-01-2016, 03:13 PM
Was it Wall Street the movie where Gordon Gekko says "The most valuable commodity I know is peace of mind" ?
Fact is there's hordes of "nervous nelly" flyers just like me that stick with brands they know and trust regardless of whether its logical, efficient, best priced or otherwise.
The dirty little commercial airline secret that I think nobody wants to talk about is that I think AIR and most other airlines take advantage of pricing power in their home market where everyone knows and trusts their home brand. Is this exploitation of well known parochial purchasing tendencies or is this simply good commercial practice ? Who can say after all the airline's primary objectives are longevity of operations and maximisation of profit...
People will chose the price, comfort and peace of mind point that best suits them, no right or wrong answers mate. I wouldn't chose to go to Vietnam so I hope you don't mind that I dodged your question.
Fair enough....I get peace of mind with Thai Air(and more comfort)
The question (of saving that much dosh)could be appied to anywhere using the same numbers.(I think we might be in the same camp on that)--you are an accountant after all:):):)
You may be right about the nervous nelly flyers that stick to the brands they know---that would be interesting to do a poll or research on ,just for fun. I personally dont know anyone though,who wouldnt take a better deal with another trusted airline with the same or better comfort(there were a few who mentioned they got ''priced out''of AIR flights earlier)
OH Yea--Your question.....Since some may be skittish with MAL ,lets say $1440 buys peace of mind -with Thai Air(alot cheaper than $19something.)
Their pricing (financial planning)is the only thing I have doubts about--as far as present share price performance,this is their (and your)time in the sun---when putting this much work into a company ,it must be rewarding to have it all come right,so full credit.
PS--You wouldnt want to go to Viet Nam but went to Siberia???
mikeybycrikey
24-01-2016, 04:53 PM
Just looking early for booking to Southeast Asia-(Jun-Sept)--MAL AK-BK=$1140 Thai -AK-Bk=$1450 .....Looked for the new AK-Viet Nam AIR ...Came out to $1950 (forgot the exact amount).....Am I missing something???
Can't be sure but don't think the new AIR NZ AKL-Vietnam route is for sale yet. Any flights that I found were flying via Singapore. I guess the direct Air NZ flights should be available for booking soon though.
I guess AIR's flight should be a little cheaper because I think they are going to be doing the Seat+bag fares.
Beagle
24-01-2016, 05:39 PM
Skid, Siberia is a euphemism on here for being banned.
Its not really work for me, I see it as a hobby and I really like the company and probably should have tried to work for them in some capacity when I was younger. Too old and fat now LOL. But yes, its nice to see the Sp heading north.
I wouldn't book just yet, I think you'll find there will be a Vietnam sale at some future point a lot cheaper than the prices you've mentioned earlier after all they had launch fares to Housten and Bounes Aires for $699 each way which is a LOT further flying time so I'd expect they'll do something along similar lines in due course at a cheaper price reflecting the relative flying distance.
Baa_Baa
24-01-2016, 06:32 PM
AIR is very responsive to TA, a simple chart helps to let profits run and inform when to cut and run. This is due to the generally strong trends, up or down. Even the apparently most devoted shareholders here don't just buy hold and hope for the best, it's way too volatile for that.
Skid, Siberia is a euphemism on here for being banned.
Its not really work for me, I see it as a hobby and I really like the company and probably should have tried to work for them in some capacity when I was younger. Too old and fat now LOL. But yes, its nice to see the Sp heading north.
I wouldn't book just yet, I think you'll find there will be a Vietnam sale at some future point a lot cheaper than the prices you've mentioned earlier after all they had launch fares to Housten and Bounes Aires for $699 each way which is a LOT further flying time so I'd expect they'll do something along similar lines in due course at a cheaper price reflecting the relative flying distance.
That would explain it--It'll be interesting to see what they come up with. (pricing)
(I was thinking afterwards that the Siberia thing was symbolic--Man ,that was a long time!----Oh well...back by popular demand:)
The whole thing is a hobby for me atm as Im completely out ..for better or worse (worse in this case) until this economic situation plays out a bit more-----still love those Southeast Asia trips in the winter (jump on a motor bike with a small pac sac and take off) ..gets me out of the bubble of ordinary life (we sometimes take for granted) as Joe walse puts it ''I cant complain ,but sometimes I still do''
AIR is very responsive to TA, a simple chart helps to let profits run and inform when to cut and run. This is due to the generally strong trends, up or down. Even the apparently most devoted shareholders here don't just buy hold and hope for the best, it's way too volatile for that.
Some do ...but they shouldnt:)
theace
25-01-2016, 08:56 AM
For those on the lookout for cheap trips ... Qantas has just $800 return flights out of Wellington to Asia ... guessing in response to the Singapore Airlines flights
Beagle
25-01-2016, 09:54 AM
AIR is very responsive to TA, a simple chart helps to let profits run and inform when to cut and run. This is due to the generally strong trends, up or down. Even the apparently most devoted shareholders here don't just buy hold and hope for the best, it's way too volatile for that.
I love it when TA and FA line up so perfectly like they do at present. On one hand, the stock has now convincingly broken through the 13 year resistance line at $3.10, (see Hoops recent chart), and on the other the fundmentals look truly compelling and even if oil reverts back to $60 - $70 a barrel in the medium term it won't hurt AIR one iota with their modern fuel efficient fleet.
All the signs point north :) FWIW I'm in for the long haul and will normally back FA over TA.
Robomo
25-01-2016, 10:35 AM
Just looking early for booking to Southeast Asia-(Jun-Sept)--MAL AK-BK=$1140 Thai -AK-Bk=$1450 .....Looked for the new AK-Viet Nam AIR ...Came out to $1950 (forgot the exact amount).....Am I missing something???
Just announced today by Air New Zealand $1,232 return Auckland - Ho Chi Minh starting 4 June.
Beagle
25-01-2016, 10:45 AM
Just announced today by Air New Zealand $1,232 return Auckland - Ho Chi Minh starting 4 June.
Very attractive to the intrepid traveller. You're all sorted now Skid :)
brend
25-01-2016, 10:46 AM
Very attractive to the intrepid traveller. You're all sorted now Skid :)
very competitive for a direct flight
Sideshow Bob
25-01-2016, 12:28 PM
very competitive for a direct flight
Went there via HK a month ago on AIR/Cathay. Cost a fortune.
Beagle
25-01-2016, 01:07 PM
Keep a keen eye out folks for the Dec operating stat's...must be due out shortly.
For those on the lookout for cheap trips ... Qantas has just $800 return flights out of Wellington to Asia ... guessing in response to the Singapore Airlines flights
Qantas also did less than a grand return to LA for the school holidays..that is a saving over 1k per seat..that will sort out the accommodation for a family for a week...sure not direct however for a family the Sydney layover (if one) is not so bad with CBD reached in 16 minutes via train...
Keep a keen eye out folks for the Dec operating stat's...must be due out shortly.
December is always good...
winner69
25-01-2016, 05:28 PM
Keep a keen eye out folks for the Dec operating stat's...must be due out shortly.
Tomorrow hopefully - numbers will imply revenues at least 14% up on last year I reckon. Might even mention that H1 earnings about $500m-$525m - yes?
Good day in the office today - share wise that is
Beagle
25-01-2016, 05:40 PM
There must be a LOT of backsides on seats as its taking them quite a while to count them :)
Its a very rare occurrence mate...a clear and sustained break above a very long term resistance level, ($3.10) and on reasonable volume considering our Wellington friends have been lying on the beach. Another new 13 year high. So a clear very strong technical signal to support very strong fundamental's with the stock even at $3.20 trading on less than a PE of 5 (on my estimate inclusive of VAH earnings).
stoploss
25-01-2016, 09:26 PM
Qantas must have some spare seats from Wellington ..... presumably a stopover in Sydney as opposed to flying to Auck with Air NZ. This looks cheap though ..
http://www.houseoftravel.co.nz/hot-deals/deals/qantas-asia-wlg
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11579335
Qatar airways....
Qantas must have some spare seats from Wellington ..... presumably a stopover in Sydney as opposed to flying to Auck with Air NZ. This looks cheap though ..
http://www.houseoftravel.co.nz/hot-deals/deals/qantas-asia-wlg
Emirates also has cheap flights...
Beagle
25-01-2016, 09:45 PM
Qantas must have some spare seats from Wellington ..... presumably a stopover in Sydney as opposed to flying to Auck with Air NZ. This looks cheap though ..
http://www.houseoftravel.co.nz/hot-deals/deals/qantas-asia-wlg
I had a quick look at a theoretical booking to Singapore departing 1 August, returning a week later. The cheapest flight departs at 6.25 a.m. meaning a 3.30 a.m. ? set-up for the alarm clock and there was a lengthy stopover in Australia for a total of 19.5 hours travel time. Very gruelling day. Over 20 hours on the way back departing just before midnight in Singapore and another lengthy stopover in Australia. Stopovers with shorter duration and departures at more sensible hours were dramatically more expensive.
Anyway on the competition thing in general. I think most of us are cognisant that cheap oil = more competition and cheap travel deals.
Perhaps its a good idea to have a separate thread in the off market section that covers all the cheap travel deals out there, not just airfares but cruises and any other specials that might interest people ? I'll start it, see here http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10494-Cheap-Travel-deals-and-other-great-Holiday-idea-s&p=604738#post604738
Another reasonably solid day even with ASX being closed today. must be in anticipation of those Dec strong stats along with some hints about HY results trading update perhaps....
winner69
26-01-2016, 02:29 PM
One thing the operating stats will say is group yield is down.
No worries - with long haul growing much faster than short haul group yield must fall (much higher yield on short haul v long haul)
Thing to assess is what revenue growth will look like.
Beagle
26-01-2016, 03:15 PM
Nicely observed Winner. In the last 12 months operating stat's have always been out before 26th.
The bean counters must have been enjoying their Riviera launches this summer and the fishing just too good to come home...either that or the numbers are so good they're double checking :D
Snow Leopard
26-01-2016, 05:01 PM
Herald headline 'quoting' Mr Luxon
Air NZ: Domestic and international fares to drop substantially (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11579928)
and the Stuff take on it:
Air NZ signals big drops in domestic and international airfares (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/76272277/air-nz-signals-big-drops-in-domestic-and-international-airfares)
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Beagle
26-01-2016, 05:13 PM
He's very good at working the media and public...he has to be. What else do you say when you're about to announce a half year profit that's circa 2.5 times last year's ?
Fact is as many others have been noting, competition is plentiful and prices have already come down both domestically and internationally. Another 13 year high today I see..
I expect a detailed media briefing at the half year that will encompass the full gambit of how they've invested in new more environmentally efficient aircraft, new more comfortable facilities, (lounges), new energy efficiencies, (electric vehicles) and how the public will benefit from more comfortable and modern aircraft and facilities at better prices e.t.c.e.t.c. All feel good stuff for the public. Meanwhile OTOH they'll be handing out the goodies... BIG dividend :D
It was also looking at moving its ground handling and car fleet to electric vehicles and an announcement on that would be made soon.
As predicted - Priming the environmental pump to make the greenies feel good.
stoploss
26-01-2016, 05:17 PM
He's very good at working the media and public...he has to be. What else do you say when you're about to announce a half year profit that's circa 2.5 times last year's ?
Fact is as many others have been noting, competition is plentiful and prices have already come down both domestically and internationally.
I think that's the answer why the "announcement " hasn't come out yet ...... he would have been facing a barrage of "monopoly ","price gouging "etc etc questions from the select committee. Better to tell them loads of competition which there is ( inbound ) prices coming down, along with their fuel costs all truthful ..... Now they are free to release a bumper announcement . I saw another article today they are hiring quite a few new staff , so they must be busy .......
For those interested, new add by Air.
#AspireToFly: Air New Zealand Cabin Crew & the Adventure of Life Above the Clouds
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmEpkOOItTE
Zaphod
26-01-2016, 07:44 PM
Herald headline 'quoting' Mr Luxon
Air NZ: Domestic and international fares to drop substantially (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11579928)
and the Stuff take on it:
Air NZ signals big drops in domestic and international airfares (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/76272277/air-nz-signals-big-drops-in-domestic-and-international-airfares)
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Thanks for posting the links. There's a lot of very interesting information contained within.
I am glad that AirNZ and taking a strong stand on WLG's runway lengthening; no use, no pay. It will be interesting to see how that plays out, as increased landing charges will provide moderately negative impact on future results. The precedent could further exacerbate the issue.
Zaphod
26-01-2016, 07:53 PM
For those interested, new add by Air.
#AspireToFly: Air New Zealand Cabin Crew & the Adventure of Life Above the Clouds
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmEpkOOItTE
Flight attendants on long haul routes certainly work very hard and endure some unpleasant things. Relatively quick turnarounds (e.g. AKL-YVR with one paid day off, then back YVR-AKL), a few unpleasant customers, the usual politics and dealing with some difficult situations (e.g. Heart attack on a SFO-AKL sector I was travelled on).
On the flip side I've seen the comradeship and the joy they get from talking with the bulk of the passengers.
I wonder what staff turnover is like for long-haul flight attendants.
Flight attendants on long haul routes certainly work very hard and endure some unpleasant things. Relatively quick turnarounds (e.g. AKL-YVR with one paid day off, then back YVR-AKL), a few unpleasant customers, the usual politics and dealing with some difficult situations (e.g. Heart attack on a SFO-AKL sector I was travelled on).
On the flip side I've seen the comradeship and the joy they get from talking with the bulk of the passengers.
I wonder what staff turnover is like for long-haul flight attendants.
I used to think it would be glamorous but not any more--Dont think the body is meant for that sort of thing (always in a state of limbo with time zones etc.,weird hrs,and like you say,any drama that comes along has to play out in a small tin space,cant step out for a breath of fresh air ,or go home sick (or even stay home sick if your on a layover)
They do a pretty good job ,considering--one of the strong points of AIR....seating ..well...lets just say you should stay on that diet and hopefully you are not tall.
Well,wouldnt you know it...Just when we had this discussion about price,theres this article in the Herald about AIR dropping their prices--competition has self regulated.--If other airlines ticket prices have an effect on AIR,I reckon its fair game to discuss----Awaiting with interest:)
GuessX
27-01-2016, 01:17 PM
Here comes the pricing wars.
Auckland to LA - return for $788 on grabaseat.
I'm going in October for my wedding - I'm watching eagerly to see if my fares will be dropping ... currently paying $1800 return.
Beagle
27-01-2016, 02:01 PM
Not really a pricing war..most of the super specials are limited to 30 seats, (one tenth of one plane load spread out over dozens of flights). probably grabs the attention of some price sensitive travellers who might otherwise not have flown at all and actually boosts their load factors and thereby is still a profitable exercise. Good P.R. too. They did this a bit last year too, low volume one day super specials to international destinations, pays to subscribe to daily deals with www.grabaseat.co.nz for people that want to take advantage. Hmmm... speaking of public relations, I wonder if there's any correlation between these super specials and complaints of overcharging...done for effect ?
Marilyn Munroe
27-01-2016, 02:04 PM
Wow, it will soon be possible to view the sun scorched sands of Arabia and the drifting icebergs of the Southern Ocean out the window of the same flight.
Go to(read the last paragraph);
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/qatar-airways-chief-eyes-more-airline-investments-in-2016-619487.html
I speculate they will use the old banger 777's to prove up the route then switch to A350's
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
blockhead
27-01-2016, 03:30 PM
Profit taking today or unease with price cutting ?
Still no sign of op stats for Dec, still cross checking numbers perhaps??
Profit taking today or unease with price cutting ?
Maybe one due to the other blockhead.
Perhaps will wait a few days before releasing the ops stats for this reduced prices to cool down:confused:
Here comes the pricing wars.
Auckland to LA - return for $788 on grabaseat.
I'm going in October for my wedding - I'm watching eagerly to see if my fares will be dropping ... currently paying $1800 return.
Don't be hopeful, will be limited seats on limited dates..just about marginal income clearing any surplus seats...just a different way of clear seats such as reverse auctions..also handy PR to use that they are lowering prices...expect a bumper result..
blockhead
27-01-2016, 04:45 PM
Might breach $3 the way its shaping
brend
27-01-2016, 04:59 PM
Might breach $3 the way its shaping
**** - what a drop
samdaman
27-01-2016, 05:03 PM
well shes quite high above the 50 and 200 MA's I'm not surprised it's pulled back a bit. I haven't checked it in a while but if I'm correct it also breached the bollingers and is pulling back through the top band. Just some technical pressure I reckon. I don't think the overall uptrend has been sabotaged. I've been wrong before! Don't trust me :) just my opinion
Beagle
27-01-2016, 05:11 PM
Its fair to say there's some nervousness caused by Mr Luxon's comments yesterday and with them being widely reported people took them at face value. It was implied that AIR face an enormous challenge filling their extra 12 % capacity and that substantial price drops were needed to achieve that. Keep in mind the audience those comments were aimed at.
The facts, (as best we know them) is that as per the Nov Op stat's YTD capacity grew at 12% but revenue passage kilometres grew at 12.2% so AIR have been doing a very good job filling the extra seats with existing sales and marketing strategies and average load factors have been very robust at an average of 84% well above QAN 81%. Yields to date have also been good in the context of much lower oil prices.
Some nervous holders decided to take profits, run for the door and ask questions later. I wasn't one of them.
Its like a bit of a deja vu--those Herald articles about price cutting and competition.
It came right last time so probably no reason to get to upset as long as results are good when they come out. (the next set of results after these will be interesting) We will have a better idea then of how the cost cutting is affecting things--same story though--fill the planes and you are sweet.
Baa_Baa
27-01-2016, 08:17 PM
well shes quite high above the 50 and 200 MA's I'm not surprised it's pulled back a bit. I haven't checked it in a while but if I'm correct it also breached the bollingers and is pulling back through the top band. Just some technical pressure I reckon. I don't think the overall uptrend has been sabotaged. I've been wrong before! Don't trust me :) just my opinion
Correct, it has come back rather quickly(!) to the rising support trend line (closing price), which is well below the high(s) price breakouts and is a sign of a $3.02/$3.00 support retest. Jmo.
pierre
27-01-2016, 09:41 PM
Some nervous holders decided to take profits, run for the door and ask questions later. I wasn't one of them.
It's easy to scare the horses in today's market and the nervous Nellies ran from the stable today without really understanding the story.
I guess they've simply created a buying opportunity for the more astute investor and we'll see them moving in on Thursday.
Plenty of exciting stuff to come yet from AIR and absolutely no need to panic. The December stats and the half year result will both make fascinating reading.
theace
27-01-2016, 09:41 PM
Additional flights .... can only be good
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11580666
Beagle
27-01-2016, 09:54 PM
Totally agree pierre..it was a good buying opportunity for anyone that wasn't already on board or who wanted to increase their allocation.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11580616 Had the desired effect including the desired publicity and a smart move in a political sense.
I'm Not sure an extra 15% capacity expansion to Queenstown will be anywhere nearly enough but I am sure they can expand much more at a later date now that night flights are approved, (subject to sufficient aircraft capacity).
Big buys at the end of trading today. May be up again tomorrow a bit.
AIR Shareprice history is volatile ... steep rises and steep falls... That is the nature of the beast..and that's why I'm super alert with this one...todays drop 15.5c -4.8% to close at $3.07 has caused no major technical damage but it's a worry as are all cyclicals in their mature bull cycle phase...Yes a shareprice worry even with a good result due + a possible big special Div..
Disc: holding
It's easy to scare the horses in today's market and the nervous Nellies ran from the stable today without really understanding the story.
I guess they've simply created a buying opportunity for the more astute investor and we'll see them moving in on Thursday.
Plenty of exciting stuff to come yet from AIR and absolutely no need to panic. The December stats and the half year result will both make fascinating reading.
You may well be right and this could be a storm in a tea cup...the ''nervous Nellies'' is getting a bit tired and worn out though--Lets just say some investors got spooked,for better or worse.
Guess we'll see in the coming days.
You may well be right and this could be a storm in a tea cup...the ''nervous Nellies'' is getting a bit tired and worn out though--Lets just say some investors got spooked,for better or worse.
Guess we'll see in the coming days.
They reality is people simply may have a different mind set, simply profit taking rather than nervous may be the answer. I don't believe anyone informed on the company would have taken a negative from the announcement.
I think the Auckland to Queenstown market at night is a great idea as it will allow a lot of workers in Auckland to make a weekend of it with a decent amount of time down in Queenstown. It also has limited competition, nice point of difference in this offering.
Some years back AIR increased capacity on the AKL- WLG sector with extra flights and as a result found they had grown the market share from their competitors. The increased frequency allowed passengers more options for their travel requirements. I think this Queenstown announcement will achieve the same, taking market share from Jetstar and the alike.
winner69
28-01-2016, 08:25 AM
Remember long term resistance (the $3 barrier in his case) when breached generally becomes solid support.
Let's see how TA plays out. Was support last week so working so far
Remember long term resistance (the $3 barrier in his case) when breached generally becomes solid support.
Let's see how TA plays out. Was support last week so working so far
Im actually surprised no one seemed to see this coming..looking at it simply(perhaps over simply) it exactly what happened before when competition was introduced.The SP took a bit of a ride down.
IMO we are in market sentiment territory atm (not in a huge way though)
I think it could breach resistance for that reason and still make a comeback,simply because thats what it did before,or it could bounce back today(there are a few buys @1.10 but only around 1000)
flying to Queenstown at night through that canyon on a blustery night--Ayai yai yai yai!
Meanwhile theres already an accommodation shortage.....Queenstown RIP
On an unrelated note my friend knows someone who bought a section outside of Wanaka and put a Yurt on it(apparently you can buy them in Christchrch -Apparently they are quite spacious-Id love to go see it.
Cool eh?
http://www.tipis.co.nz/yurts.html
Beagle
28-01-2016, 09:23 AM
https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/276898
Dec stat's are out and are stunning exceeding my best expectations. Revenue passenger kilometres growing at over 18% and capacity growing at the same rate. Load factors are very high at 85% and group wide yields are only slightly lower than last year despite AIR very low fuel prices. Given that Houston and South American flights started mid way through December IIRC ? I expect a full months flights from January onwards will see even higher growth rates in passenger kilometre's flown.
Beagle
28-01-2016, 09:25 AM
flying to Queenstown at night through that canyon on a blustery night--Ayai yai yai yai!
Meanwhile theres already an accommodation shortage.....Queenstown RIP
I see nothing...I fear nothing :)
https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/276898
Dec stat's are out and are stunning exceeding my best expectations. Revenue passenger kilometres growing at over 18% and capacity growing at the same rate. Load factors are very high at 85% and group wide yields are only slightly lower than last year despite AIR very low fuel prices. Given that Houston and South American flights started mid way through December IIRC ? I expect a full months flights from January onwards will see even higher growth rates in passenger kilometre's flown.
That's correct Roger, Houston and Buenos Aires started beginning of Dec. I'm sure those numbers be quite encouraging.
No snippets about the FY earnings, looks like they're keeping things close to their chest.
winner69
28-01-2016, 09:43 AM
Tomorrow hopefully - numbers will imply revenues at least 14% up on last year I reckon. Might even mention that H1 earnings about $500m-$525m - yes?
Good day in the office today - share wise that is
Great December stats - implies revenues for month up 15% on last year
As Roger says this growth rate will only get higher over the rest of the financial year
In $ terms December revenues probably $60m more than last year - yes +$60m in one month. What's that in annual growth?
https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/276898
Dec stat's are out and are stunning exceeding my best expectations. Revenue passenger kilometres growing at over 18% and capacity growing at the same rate. Load factors are very high at 85% and group wide yields are only slightly lower than last year despite AIR very low fuel prices. Given that Houston and South American flights started mid way through December IIRC ? I expect a full months flights from January onwards will see even higher growth rates in passenger kilometre's flown.
Well then, it may have been good timing to get that competition announcement out of the way the day before.
Remember though,to keep those numbers they have more competition to deal with..the next update will be more telling on how this plays out...but as Ba Ba says --its the ''now'' that counts...for now:)
stoploss
28-01-2016, 10:35 AM
Roger , the announcement all reads well ( first 6 paragraphs) but I would like to know what the last paragraph means for overall profitability ? Can you shed some light on this for the uninitiated please ?
Group-wide yields for the financial year to date were down 1.1% on the same
period last year. Short Haul yields were down 0.5% while Long Haul yields
were up 2.0%. Removing the impact of foreign exchange, Group-wide yields were
down 4.6%.
Beagle
28-01-2016, 11:01 AM
Roger , the announcement all reads well ( first 6 paragraphs) but I would like to know what the last paragraph means for overall profitability ? Can you shed some light on this for the uninitiated please ?
Group-wide yields for the financial year to date were down 1.1% on the same
period last year. Short Haul yields were down 0.5% while Long Haul yields
were up 2.0%. Removing the impact of foreign exchange, Group-wide yields were
down 4.6%.
Hi mate,
Happy to clarify.
First up I've had the chance to have a more detailed look at the YTD operating stat's and I'm very happy indeed. (I'll focus entirely on the YTD figures here as they're the most meaningful now that half the year's water has flowed under the bridge so too speak).
Very Strong Capacity Growth and Exceptional Demand Growth
AIR N.Z is scheduled to have capacity growth of 12% this year, (the fastest growth rate in its 75 year history).
Revenue passenger kilometres (RPK's) have in fact increased a stunning 17.1% YTD...I would have been very pleased indeed to have seen them grow at 12% and match the capacity growth which would have been a really pleasing result indeed but 17.1% growth is simply stunning !
Especially pleasing are the results for the Asia / Japan / Singapore sectors with RPK's up a whopping 49% and load factor up 4.9% to 87.1%. these are truly exceptional numbers.
Load Factors and Yield
Load factors are up to 84.4% from 83.9% (up 0.5%). Very pleasing result given the record capacity expansion.
Yield in $N.Z. terms is down 1.1%, (approx. $30m) for the half compared to last year but increased load factors, (bear in mind it takes about 70% loads to break even in this game so an extra 0.5% group wide load factor YTD really matters) being up 0.5% should more than compensate for the drop in yield. Somewhere around 40-45% of ticket sales are in foreign currency so as the N.Z. dollar drops the value of these sales increases. Yields would have dropped 4.6% if it were not for this.
AIR's yields in N.Z. dollar terms have held up extremely well in this ultra low oil price environment.
Summing Up
I think the key figure of all this is the growth in group RPK's by 17%. This is phenomenal growth and will engender really meaningful economies of scale in terms of lowering the cost structure of AIR N.Z.
I'm expecting AIR will very comfortably exceed the underlying $400m minimum profit forecast they issued at the annual meeting. Our airline is performing exceptionally well and robust tourism growth together with low oil prices, substantial capacity expansion and high load factors all point toward a very bright future for the company.
Disc: I topped up further this morning.
stoploss
28-01-2016, 11:03 AM
Many thanks Roger .
winner69
28-01-2016, 11:36 AM
Many thanks Roger .
Adding to Roger's post
Yield is Revenue per RPK (Revenue Passenger Kms)
In H115 Air short haul yield was 17.4 cents (17.4 cents for every KM a passenger flew) while long haul was 10.6 cents
Yields have been up and down a bit over the last 6 months but lets say both short and long haul are down 1% for simplicity sake. If so Air short haul yield is 17.2 cents and long haul is 10.5 cents.
Lower yields do imply on the average lower prices - but as Roger says they flying more and more passengers (that RPK number is the one to watch) so the money coming coming in is growing at a fast rate, like 15% for December is pretty good eh
Beagle
28-01-2016, 11:39 AM
My calculations show first half sales have grown by approx. $400m. ($2.8b v $2.4b in the previous corresponding period).
winner69
28-01-2016, 11:44 AM
My calculations show first half sales have grown by approx. $400m. ($2.8b v $2.4b in the previous corresponding period).
That $400m is a huge number Roger - and it's only the increase over last year
H2 increase will be more with all that extra capacity.
Beagle
28-01-2016, 11:48 AM
That $400m is a huge number Roger - and it's only the increase over last year
H2 increase will be more with all that extra capacity.
Agreed and don't forget a lot of that new extra mileage is being flown with their new highly efficient Dreamliner's, (now 6 online after 3 new ones arrived in Q1 Fy16)
Virgin profitable this year too, expect about $40-50m Kiwi as AIR's share for the full year.
As I said before and another reminder now...
Are you confused as to why Mr Market is so cautious on such a glowing monthly report and expected bonanza 1/2 year report...? and... the analysts seemingly so negative biased......?....Why doesn't Mr Market react positively to such a low PE Ratio...?
That's because successful investing in Cyclicals requires a higher level of fundamental analysis skills and different methods to more accurately value the stock .....E.g Buying a cyclical with a very low PE Ratio could in actual fact be buying into an overvalued expensive stock. (Normalisation + cyclic position)
So...here's some bed time reading for ya all..........be warned it is heavy going ....
Ups and Downs: Valuing Cyclical and Commodity Companies
Aswath Damodaran
Stern School of Business, New York University
September 2009
(http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/papers/commodity.pdf)Disc: still holding
Beagle
28-01-2016, 12:28 PM
I think Mr Luxon gets slightly frustrated with analysts insistence that AIR is a cyclical stock. Fact is if oil were higher, yields would be better and less need to discount fares. Demand grew at 17% despite very sluggish global economic activity. Its hardly like the economy is booming here either so it begs the question if AIR is a cyclical stock what part of the cycle are we at ? (I think its safer to never assume you know the answer to this question as an absolute certainty).
I expect further analyst upgrades to come. Fact is cheaper airfares ARE stimulating greater demand for travel. Good things take time :)
I think Mr Luxon gets slightly frustrated with analysts insistence that AIR is a cyclical stock. Fact is if oil were higher, yields would be better and less need to discount fares. Demand grew at 17% despite very sluggish global economic activity. Its hardly like the economy is booming here either so it begs the question if AIR is a cyclical stock what part of the cycle are we at ? (I think its safer to never assume you know the answer to this question as an absolute certainty).
I expect further analyst upgrades to come. Fact is cheaper airfares ARE stimulating greater demand for travel. Good things take time :)
What ever Roger.....Can't do anymore debating here on this subject..haven't the time to waste in non productive counter arguments and cluttering up the thread with repeated arguments boring everyone to death including myself...
Have a good one:)
Beagle
28-01-2016, 01:21 PM
You obviously didn't listen to the analysts conference call at the time of the annual results or attend the annual meeting as otherwise you would have heard C.L.'s response to claims its a cyclical company. The stock is responding nicely to improved results and outlook and is up from $2.50 a few months ago at the annual meeting. Obviously latecomers to the party would be frustrated by yesterday's price drop and that's perfectly understandable. Thank you for your link in post #4599.
Beagle
28-01-2016, 03:18 PM
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/consensus/
Robomo
28-01-2016, 03:27 PM
Just published today...
http://atwonline.com/finance-data/asia-pacific-passenger-traffic-8-cargo-16-2015?NL=ATW-04&Issue=ATW-04_20160127_ATW-04_927&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_7_1&utm_rid=CPEN1000000399524&utm_campaign=4806&utm_medium=email&elq2=9b6bc815ccda42c598132f26d0a28edc
International traffic on Asia-Pacific carriers grew 7.9% to 276.3 million passengers in 2015, according to the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA). Over 20 million additional international passengers were carried by Asia-Pacific carriers in 2015, pushing the rate of growth in the sector to exceed 2014’s 4.9% year-over-year (YOY) growth by 3 points.
Low oil prices pushed the region’s airlines to competitively lower their airfares, boosting passenger traffic in the region, AAPA said.
“Long-haul travel markets prospered on the back of an improvement in economic conditions in selected advanced economies,” AAPA DG Andrew Herdman said, adding that regional travel demand also grew solidly in 2015, despite sluggishness in the Asia-Pacific economy and regional currency weaknesses.
“Less optimistically, air cargo markets saw only marginal growth [in] 2015, a reflection of the slowdown in global trade,” Herdman said.
In 2105, international traffic at Asia-Pacific airlines rose 8.2% YOY to 1 trillion RPKs total; capacity in the region was 1.28 trillion ASKs, up 6.3% YOY. The region’s total passenger load factor for the year came in at 78.4%, up 1.4 points YOY.
Air cargo traffic in the Asia-Pacific region was up 1.6% YOY in 2015, to 64.93 billion FTKs; air freight capacity for the year increased 3.5% YOY to 101.86 billion FATKs, resulting in a 63.7% aggregate freight load factor for 2015, down 1.3 points YOY.
“Competitive market conditions continued to restrain margins [at Asian airlines]; airline profitability was … affected by currency volatility and variations in individual fuel hedging policies,” Herdman said. “ [B]the outlook for air travel markets in 2016 remains broadly positive, although there are significant risk factors ... including increased uncertainty over the regional economic outlook.”
AAPA’s figures—all of which are provisional—are based on aggregated traffic data for 31 Asia Pacific-based carriers.
Beagle
28-01-2016, 03:45 PM
Many thanks Robomo. Its very pleasing to see how well AIR N.Z's load factors and RPK growth compare so favourably with its peer group.
Just published today...
http://atwonline.com/finance-data/asia-pacific-passenger-traffic-8-cargo-16-2015?NL=ATW-04&Issue=ATW-04_20160127_ATW-04_927&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_7_1&utm_rid=CPEN1000000399524&utm_campaign=4806&utm_medium=email&elq2=9b6bc815ccda42c598132f26d0a28edc
International traffic on Asia-Pacific carriers grew 7.9% to 276.3 million passengers in 2015, according to the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA). Over 20 million additional international passengers were carried by Asia-Pacific carriers in 2015, pushing the rate of growth in the sector to exceed 2014’s 4.9% year-over-year (YOY) growth by 3 points.
Low oil prices pushed the region’s airlines to competitively lower their airfares, boosting passenger traffic in the region, AAPA said.
“Long-haul travel markets prospered on the back of an improvement in economic conditions in selected advanced economies,” AAPA DG Andrew Herdman said, adding that regional travel demand also grew solidly in 2015, despite sluggishness in the Asia-Pacific economy and regional currency weaknesses.
“Less optimistically, air cargo markets saw only marginal growth [in] 2015, a reflection of the slowdown in global trade,” Herdman said.
In 2105, international traffic at Asia-Pacific airlines rose 8.2% YOY to 1 trillion RPKs total; capacity in the region was 1.28 trillion ASKs, up 6.3% YOY. The region’s total passenger load factor for the year came in at 78.4%, up 1.4 points YOY.
Air cargo traffic in the Asia-Pacific region was up 1.6% YOY in 2015, to 64.93 billion FTKs; air freight capacity for the year increased 3.5% YOY to 101.86 billion FATKs, resulting in a 63.7% aggregate freight load factor for 2015, down 1.3 points YOY.
“Competitive market conditions continued to restrain margins [at Asian airlines]; airline profitability was … affected by currency volatility and variations in individual fuel hedging policies,” Herdman said. “ [B]the outlook for air travel markets in 2016 remains broadly positive, although there are significant risk factors ... including increased uncertainty over the regional economic outlook.”
AAPA’s figures—all of which are provisional—are based on aggregated traffic data for 31 Asia Pacific-based carriers.
Which shows its a cyclical stock--cyclical means up as well as down----now lets see..what factors could cause a stock to be cyclical--changes in cost?-oil ..changes in sales --fewer passengers if the economy goes pear shaped(would you take a vacation overseas if your job was at risk?)--changes in sentiment--an air mishap(god forbid) Another airline stealing business(over performing)....Now thats not a reason for every one to be bummed or angry,because basically AIR are doing very well at this point--but it is a reason to be vigilant--
The other option is to assume that it will continue to go up forever.-not many things go up forever--especially something that mostly depends on leisure rather than necessity...That of course does not mean that 2016 wont be a cracker year...but a cracker decade might be a bit more of a stretch..After all..the Gov. did have to bail AIR out at one point.Can you imagine what the chart would have looked like if they had'nt?.....Be happy with what you've got..now.
Beagle
28-01-2016, 04:11 PM
Skid - Why do you think demand has been so strong and RPK growth at 17% double that of its regional competitors given soft economic conditions ? Maybe AIR's marketing team and management are world class operators ? Or is it that since Mr Luxon took over as CEO he's really improved the culture of the organisation, remember that great management always starts with having a great leader as CEO.
One thing I've learned from over 30 years of investing, never underestimate the value of a really brilliant CEO.
winner69
28-01-2016, 05:44 PM
Whether Luxon (and others) like it or not AIR will always be seen as a cyclical.
However we should not overlook that the highs and lows of the 'cycle' in future will be higher than previously. AIR is now a more substantive company.
As a 'cyclical' stock AIR's PE will be low (5 to 7) when profits are heading to the top of the cycle and the PE will be high (15 to 20) when profits are at he bottom at he cycle. Over the whole cycle the PE will average out at 10 to 11.
The higher he profit the lower the PE, and vice versa. We had this discussion on this thread a year or so ago.
But if Rogers 64 cents eps for Fy16 comes to fruition than a share price later his year somewhere between $3.20 to $4.48 is likely. Probably nearer the $4.48 as FY17 loos like it going to pretty good as well and that will be factored in.
Holders just need to be patient at the moment. That $3 is strong support at the moment - in a few months we will be wondering want the fuss was all about
Good management is a plus indeed..and they will have to be as things are hotting up in the airline industry that could make this last year a walk in the park..so this will put them to the test.......GAME ON!
newest arrival..
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11581175
An of course we know about Quatar--Man that must be some plane to fly 18.5 hrs!! (I think I would rather have a layover to stretch my legs and keep from going to La La land:)
There are articles all over the place--they say the cheap prices are here to stay for this year,and there will no doubt be some battles for bums on seats.
Aside from not quite having my dates sorted for this winter,it seems prudent to wait until the battle line have clearly been drawn.
Im sure Luxton is a worthy opponent,but the way I see it ,this last year has been like Joseph Parker fighting some of those overweight so so opponents ..and now the quality heavy weights are coming up! He is still a great fighter but the fights will be more of a challenge.
Snow Leopard
28-01-2016, 09:14 PM
So I have, purely for the fun of it had three attempts to work out what the Net Profit Before Tax (excluding any contribution, if any, from Virgin) that AIR will announce next month.
As the first iteration I came up with $368M but AIR have yet to contradiction their $400+ this seemed a little unlikely.
Second attempt was $397M so is in the ball park.
Finally I managed to pulled $421M out of the hat.
So I now confidently predict that not only are none of above right but the result will be $409M + Virgin.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Beagle
28-01-2016, 09:14 PM
Rumour in the airline industry Skid is they're going to nickname that 18 1/2 hour flight the deep vein thrombosis special :)
It had suffered some reputation damage with the crash of AirAsia Indonesia A320 in late 2014. An inquiry found pilots' reaction to mechanical problem contributed.
The wider airline group had learned from it, said Ismail.
"Every time there are situations that we can avoid, we put it into training."
Its good to note they're committing to learning from their mistakes...I hope they're quick learners :eek2:
Quite right Winner69. At 68 cps incl of VAH earnings on a PE of 6 (even if this is the top of the cycle and I am not convinced it is) that puts them at $4.08 as well as some very juicy dividends this year plus a special dividend.
PT They must have been super confident to predict normalised earnings before tax would exceed $400m months ago at the annual meeting. Nothing said since and loads have been very strong and RPK's have been well above capacity growth and oil has gone down a LOT since the meeting so all signs point well north of $400m. $500-$550m incl of VAH is my pick.
As a Financial auditor of PLCs in a previous life, 400 million is the only relative firm element, if they have indicated that at the AGM as per Rodger comment..the usual dance will be between both management and auditors plus respective legal teams having a discussion about winding up or down provisions. It will depend if they want to maxamize dividends or smooth income and dividend policy going forward.
Air Asia x pilot program has been called out before..so would never travel with them.
Air has certainly alienated a lot of people with their nickel and dime approach, in pricing and mind set flowing to service. People do not take kindly to tiered service in the same cabin, especially if its in the premium cabin. People will flock to the alternatives if the price is right.
Just to set the record straight--I avoid Air Air Asias long haul flights like the plague (but not everyone will---plenty will go for the bargain)
I do use them alot for short flights in Asia and they have always been fine.(and have been great at making it easy to get around at a good price)..point is ..its more competition---why are all these airlines flocking to lil ole NZ? (it may be the very thing that has got everyone so excited--AIRs balance sheet)
I think that there is only so successful an airline can get before others step in for some of the spoils.
A small side bar--my daughter flew Air Asia to OZ from Thailand some years back...She couldnt even get water on the flight except for a few cups of hot water...now thats class--(I ride a motorbike all over Northern Thailand,but Im to old for that kind of crap)
but if it brings down the price of other quality airlines,its good for customers...Having said that I wouldnt underestimate Tony Fernandes,the man behind Air Asia.
theace
29-01-2016, 09:54 AM
Trumping Qatar? .... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11581539
winner69
29-01-2016, 10:13 AM
Cyclical is Air NZ, earnings wise which leads into valuations and share price.
Top to bottom of cycle was F07 to F12 when EPS steadily declined from 22.8 cents to 6.3 cent. Over those 5 years share price fell from 264 to 86 (June prices). PE over that time averaged about 10
So lets say the current up cycle will also last 5 years - F12 to F17. Low EPS is the 6.3 cents and lets say F17 EPS is 66 cents (Roger won't agree)
Many say you should value cyclicals on mid point earnings and average PE multiple. So average EPS over the cycle is 36 cents - on a PE of 10 gives $3.50 (conservative)
So AIR 'cheap' even when treated as a true cyclical - looks like it.
Even so I think that likely fat dividends will eventually tempt many into buying at higher prices.
winner69
29-01-2016, 12:50 PM
AIR share price taking a bashing today
Will that $3 psychological mark hold as support?
It's allowed a few hours under $3 - a close below might mean I NTA shareholder on Monday
One issue is that over 93% (95% if you count couta and roger) of shares are held by govt who wont e selling and instos who might be tempted to take profits if they think they overweight AIR. That leaves only a small percentage left and inu these days probably a lot of nervous nellies out there who can't hack a fall.
Never mind - see what happens this afternoon - prob nt much as the movers and shakers head off to the Bay of Islands and such places for the long weekend
JohnnyTheHorse
29-01-2016, 01:22 PM
AIR share price taking a bashing today
Will that $3 psychological mark hold as support?
It's allowed a few hours under $3 - a close below might mean I NTA shareholder on Monday
One issue is that over 93% (95% if you count couta and roger) of shares are held by govt who wont e selling and instos who might be tempted to take profits if they think they overweight AIR. That leaves only a small percentage left and inu these days probably a lot of nervous nellies out there who can't hack a fall.
Never mind - see what happens this afternoon - prob nt much as the movers and shakers head off to the Bay of Islands and such places for the long weekend
Just a bit of capitulation from some of your mates eh?
With all this profit they are supposedly making, pity they cannot employ someone to check/update their website. Just had a look under Special Deals/Melbourne and all the dates say 2015.
And I think it pertains to 2015 and not supposedly 2016 ;)
A couple of other cities I looked at seem to be Ok!
Beagle
31-01-2016, 07:56 PM
AIR share price taking a bashing today
Will that $3 psychological mark hold as support?
It's allowed a few hours under $3 - a close below might mean I NTA shareholder on Monday
One issue is that over 93% (95% if you count couta and roger) of shares are held by govt who wont e selling and instos who might be tempted to take profits if they think they overweight AIR. That leaves only a small percentage left and inu these days probably a lot of nervous nellies out there who can't hack a fall.
Never mind - see what happens this afternoon - prob nt much as the movers and shakers head off to the Bay of Islands and such places for the long weekend
Latecomers to the party and those that bought purely on TA will be worried. Me...I've seen this before. I maintain its better to keep a close eye on the fundamentals as well as the technicals and sometimes they're at odds with each other and you are best to follow your gut. Technically its looks bad the $3.00 support level was broken. The next test if it comes and a big one would be a breech of the 100 day MA currently about $2.76.
I think its a little more than nervous sheeples, clearly some institutional shareholders have been spooked by all the recent press releases about new carriers coming here and expanded services by existing carriers. Perhaps it all got a bit too much all at once and they forgot that AIR are expanding too. Perhaps they haven't noticed the growth rate of 17% in revenue passenger kilometres is double their Asia and Australasian competitors and in fact about four times that of Qantas.
Many will be imagining a bloodbath of cheap fare opportunities and others saying this year's earnings are definitely the top e.t.c.
Me, I have yet to see one plausible explanation of why analysts are forecasting similar eps earnings for QAN in FY17 and FY18 to Fy16 and yet analysts are calling the peak for AIR in Fy16 with really substantial falls in those latter years ?
If Airlines are indeed cyclical then they're all cyclical right and Qan can't be immune.
This dichotomy in the way Australian analysts are valuing QAN and the way N.Z. analysts are valuing AIR is very difficult to understand.
How does one explain this, two direct competitors operating in close geographical proximity, both commodity based economies, both subject to ostensibly similar macro economic factors, tourism, oil prices, competition, global economic factors e.t.c.
At times like this I prefer to rely on my own assessment of management and the future prospects of the company. We now have three analysts valuing AIR at $3.40 and I believe they're all being quite conservative.
Be greedy when others are fearful Warren Buffet
Baa_Baa
31-01-2016, 08:44 PM
Technically it doesn't look all that bad with modest volume through on Friday.
The daily breached the steep rising trend line, then dropped below only to recover perfectly to the 50EMA. On the weekly it closed perfectly on the 10EMA, which is a signal but not the trigger for a sell on my chart. Further price weakness below $2.90 would trigger a momentum sell on my weekly with confirmation (if procrastinating) at breach $2.86 the next lower rising trend line, but certainly a sell on both charts if $2.75 is breached being the daily 200MA and weekly 39EMA.
Who knows why it bucks around like a rodeo, but it does. So the charts are helpful for those looking to preserve capital in fall and buy weakness in a bounce. Probably a bit too active for some investors.
Technically it doesn't look all that bad with modest volume through on Friday.
The daily breached the steep rising trend line, then dropped below only to recover perfectly to the 50EMA. On the weekly it closed perfectly on the 10EMA, which is a signal but not the trigger for a sell on my chart. Further price weakness below $2.90 would trigger a momentum sell on my weekly with confirmation (if procrastinating) at breach $2.86 the next lower rising trend line, but certainly a sell on both charts if $2.75 is breached being the daily 200MA and weekly 39EMA.
Who knows why it bucks around like a rodeo, but it does. So the charts are helpful for those looking to preserve capital in fall and buy weakness in a bounce. Probably a bit too active for some investors.
I believe it bucks around because it is more sensitive to the news articles (or the competition they are reporting) (the nature of the airline market)
Last time ,once people got used to the news of the competition,sentiment drifted back to the balance sheet.
IMO we have 2 things going here .1-the strong balance sheet(leading to a strong result) 2-the thought of future loss of business from more airlines entering.(gets investors skittish,trying to figure out where this leaves the company in terms of bums on seats..ie..future balance sheet..with each new arrival it kind of resets the starting point for figuring this out)
These 2 things seem to be fighting it out so we get volatility.
In terms of charts,surly some shares must behave better then others(I believe hoop has mentioned that this was one of the more difficult)..and I suppose the rodeo example would imply that you agree Ba Ba?
Baa_Baa
01-02-2016, 09:18 AM
[snip] ..In terms of charts,surly some shares must behave better then others(I believe hoop has mentioned that this was one of the more difficult)..and I suppose the rodeo example would imply that you agree Ba Ba?
I think it depends on the degree of precision one attempts to achieve, the more precise one try to be, the harder it is. That's why for solid companies - earning profits - paying dividends - and in strong trends, the weekly chart for me is just fine. It leaves a bit of profit on the table during exits and buys in above the lows. It is a basic momentum trade, so again ... strong trends are necessary. AIR works just fine on the weekly chart because of it's strong trends. On the daily chart, it's not so easy. Key is that there is not a single chart technique or trading strategy that works for all shares, one has to try and figure out what works for them for each of their holdings.
jmo, I hope it helps.
I think it depends on the degree of precision one attempts to achieve, the more precise one try to be, the harder it is. That's why for solid companies - earning profits - paying dividends - and in strong trends, the weekly chart for me is just fine. It leaves a bit of profit on the table during exits and buys in above the lows. It is a basic momentum trade, so again ... strong trends are necessary. AIR works just fine on the weekly chart because of it's strong trends. On the daily chart, it's not so easy. Key is that there is not a single chart technique or trading strategy that works for all shares, one has to try and figure out what works for them for each of their holdings.
jmo, I hope it helps.
Yes Skid AIR's chart is more difficult to handle....So chartists have to apply more skills...such as using a longer period (weekly) as BaaBaa does, which smooths out some of the trading noise..Tweaking the default settings on the TA indicators...Using Logarithmic charts is preferable for stocks being volatile or have very large long term price oscillations..etc.
Breaking back below $3 is not the end of the TA world but it presents a worry, as many throwbacks (second chance buy ins) that fall back do test their sell signal levels often gives the TAists negative scenario thoughts such as bull traps etc...
Why is AIR shareprice more volatile than other NZX50 shares?...Volatility is all due to the type of shareholders that reside in stocks...Steep trending cyclicals attract more shareholders who are more transient in nature..always been the case and always will be
BaaBaa...tweak your weekly EMA10 to EMA14 and have a look..:)
Disc: still in ..just
Baa_Baa
01-02-2016, 01:46 PM
@Hoop thanks I forgot to say my weekly has the 10 and 14 EMA ... Depending on trajectory one is the signal the other is the trigger. I probably shouldn't be over simplifying as there are trendlines and various indicators in play as well.
Snow Leopard
01-02-2016, 01:48 PM
...
Me, I have yet to see one plausible explanation of why analysts are forecasting similar eps earnings for QAN in FY17 and FY18 to Fy16 and yet analysts are calling the peak for AIR in Fy16 with really substantial falls in those latter years ?
If Airlines are indeed cyclical then they're all cyclical right and Qan can't be immune.
This dichotomy in the way Australian analysts are valuing QAN and the way N.Z. analysts are valuing AIR is very difficult to understand.
How does one explain this, two direct competitors operating in close geographical proximity, both commodity based economies, both subject to ostensibly similar macro economic factors, tourism, oil prices, competition, global economic factors e.t.c.
...
Qantas thread is here (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7284-Qan), seems no one on ST is interested in them.
The answer to the above is fairly straight forward, you should be able to work it for yourself.
...
Be greedy when others are fearful Warren Buffet
He also does not buy into airlines.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
JohnnyTheHorse
01-02-2016, 04:18 PM
There go a few big crossing I've been waiting for. Feeling more comfortable we've found support at 295. Not out of the woods yet though.
Feels Kind of like we're back where we started:mellow:
Beagle
01-02-2016, 05:44 PM
Qantas thread is here (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7284-Qan), seems no one on ST is interested in them.
The answer to the above is fairly straight forward, you should be able to work it for yourself. He also does not buy into airlines.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
If it's so simple then it shouldn't be any trouble to explain your point of view.
Qantas thread is here (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7284-Qan), seems no one on ST is interested in them.
The answer to the above is fairly straight forward, you should be able to work it for yourself.
He also does not buy into airlines.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
And 2015 was not a great year for ole Warren
JohnnyTheHorse
02-02-2016, 09:22 AM
Airline index outperforming market overnight - up around 2% right now. Drop in oil and airline profit (LOTS of profit) reporting the catalyst it would appear.
Beagle
02-02-2016, 10:45 AM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11582859&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+2+F ebruary+2016
winner69
02-02-2016, 10:46 AM
Fun time on the beach
http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/76470969/tourist-captures-lowflying-caribbean-plane-landing
Beagle
02-02-2016, 11:44 AM
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/revisions/
Consensus valuation now up to $3.20, consensus FY16 EPS now 50 cps and it seems even the analysts are starting to see my point of view. Consensus EPS for FY17 now 45 cps up from 38 cps recently.
I expect further analyst upgrades to FY16 and FY17 after the half year result due later this month.
Crikey Winner...that looks like a pretty intense experience :eek2:
Fun time on the beach
http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/76470969/tourist-captures-lowflying-caribbean-plane-landing
Yeah..I've seen many videos about this airport...The video definition gets better and better over the years...I real tourist attraction with planes flying in and out over the beach..eh?..If one adds this Caribbean island to their bucket list they must remember to get a window seat :)
JohnnyTheHorse
02-02-2016, 01:08 PM
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/revisions/
Consensus valuation now up to $3.20, consensus FY16 EPS now 50 cps and it seems even the analysts are starting to see my point of view. Consensus EPS for FY17 now 45 cps up from 38 cps recently.
I expect further analyst upgrades to FY16 and FY17 after the half year result due later this month.
Crikey Winner...that looks like a pretty intense experience :eek2:
That'd be some dividend eh Rog?
haha it is intense although the most intense thing is the island heat....it crazy over there...never ever come across a more draining heat.
So we are going no where on price today. Cashed up over 50% of portfolio and including some property since start of year and trying to figure where to invest..so much over valued...that QE does screw things up world wide.
Fun time on the beach
http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/76470969/tourist-captures-lowflying-caribbean-plane-landing
Normally an aircraft crosses the end of the runway at 50 - 60', wheel clearance at around 25'. If an AIR pilot landed on such a flat approach as this his feet wouldn't touch the ground before getting to the terminal, suspended immediately. These cowboy airline pilots try to entertain the crowds and sometimes screw things up to the detriment of their passengers. This airport is the same length as Rarotonga. TV1 report it as one of the shortest in the world, BS.
Appalled that " stuff " thinks this is entertainment. They only exacerbate this cowboy attitude that threatens the lives of innocent passengers.
Funny situation---Oil makes markets dive--but is good for airlines....bit of a paradox
blockhead
03-02-2016, 12:29 PM
Exactly a week ago I pondered the likleyhood of $3 being breeched, well that's done and dusted, where is the next stop ??
For once I took my own advice and took a profit @ $3.15, but I do not want to miss the "nice juicy dividend" Rog mentions from time to time, right now I could have 25c capital gain and be in line for the juicy div !
Beagle
03-02-2016, 12:33 PM
The TA buyers will be worried and watching the 100 day MA at $2.79 like a hawk. I'm in for the long haul and will ride the current turbulence out.
I think there's a lot of "hot money" in this stock that was chasing the upwards momentum. Once they've all exited and the dust has settled some people who believe this is a very good company will be considering their options in terms of increasing their stake and I'll be one of them.
Stock trades cum its fully imputed interim dividend payable next month. Underlying profit before tax in previous comparable period was $216m and dividend was 6.5 cps which represented a 54.8% pay-out ratio. Company guidance is for underlying profit to exceed $400m. Looking at their balance sheet as at 30 June 2015 I see no reason not to expect a commensurate increase in this year's interim dividend in line with underlying profit growth and accordingly I think current sellers are foregoing approx a 13-15 cent interim dividend.
JohnnyTheHorse
03-02-2016, 01:05 PM
TA wise I'd be looking for a bounce off the trend line at ~2.85, where it is right now. You would think fundamentals are to good for it to drop any further, however the market can be extremely irrational at times so you cannot rely on that solely.
Looks very tempting entry now, especially with results round the corner on back of juicy divvy.
Shame i'm maxed out on my portfolio allocation on this one.
Mickey
03-02-2016, 01:15 PM
I think there's a lot of "hot money" in this stock that was chasing the upwards momentum. Once they've all exited and the dust has settled some people who believe this is a very good company will be considering their options in terms of increasing their stake and I'll be one of them.
I'm of the same opinion Roger. I picked some up when they dropped to $2.53 and I'm happy to wait on the sideline until it finds its support level before grabbing a few more.
ddrone
03-02-2016, 01:32 PM
Looks very tempting entry now, especially with results round the corner on back of juicy divvy.
Shame i'm maxed out on my portfolio allocation on this one.
When are the results / dividend announcement due?
When are the results / dividend announcement due?
25th of this month before market opens...
International waters were very rocky today, pushed alot of stock down 2%. US and china down. May have an influence.
winner69
04-02-2016, 12:19 PM
Good share price isn't going down today
Roger - what you reckon the next dividend they pay will be
Yes would be interested to know next divvy
Snow Leopard
04-02-2016, 12:36 PM
7cps plus talk of a special at full year
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
PS.
If I right I will be referring back to this post when confirmed.
If i am wrong I will delete this post and claim some other Tiger wrote it.
Beagle
04-02-2016, 12:50 PM
Good share price isn't going down today
Roger - what you reckon the next dividend they pay will be
See post 4640 mate. 13-15 cps fully imputed. The resident cat has woefully underestimated it at 7 cps...must have had skim milk for breakfast this morning.
Also worth noting that they don't muck about with long gaps with declaring the dividend and paying it like some companies do. Very strange how the Government want's its money promptly isn't it..how unusual :D
A big special with the final is a given this year.
SP holding just above the 100 day MA.
theace
04-02-2016, 01:07 PM
With the forthcoming divi ... i couldn't help but top up a little bit
And if it doesn't come does anyone know Roger's address.
Marilyn Munroe
04-02-2016, 02:01 PM
Virgin(underarm bowlers division) have just released their results for the December quarter.
Passenger count down but better revenue per seat/Klm. An increased statutory profit.
Whew I was worried Virgin would turn into another Ansett.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160204/pdf/434tr0c5j3j5f2.pdf
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
winner69
04-02-2016, 03:30 PM
And if it doesn't come does anyone know Roger's address.
185 Fanshawe St, Auckland
winner69
04-02-2016, 03:49 PM
Rodgers address is 185 Fanshawe St, Auckland
Has one of the top floor penthouses
Beagle
04-02-2016, 04:06 PM
Virgin(underarm bowlers division) have just released their results for the December quarter.
Passenger count down but better revenue per seat/Klm. An increased statutory profit.
Whew I was worried Virgin would turn into another Ansett.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160204/pdf/434tr0c5j3j5f2.pdf
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Solid result...better than I was expecting. I asked Mr Luxon after the 2014 annual meeting in when he thought Virgin would be profitable and he said he was hoping it would be profitable by FY17 so to see solid profits in Q2 FY16 is very encouraging for the future prospects of Virgin. I think they could do $A400m in FY17, AIR's share about N.Z.$110m.
Has one of the top floor penthouses
which one Winner?
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/08/26/15/2BAC7CD800000578-3211591-Picture_9_Again_in_Shanghai_residents_remodelled_t heir_flat_and_-a-40_1440599780989.jpg
Beagle
04-02-2016, 08:50 PM
https://www.jumeirah.com/en/hotels-resorts/dubai/burj-al-arab/ You guys got it all wrong...if you're nice to me I might let you stay at my hotel :D
Does AIR fly to Dubai? I went Emirates last time . (guilty look) :(
stoploss
04-02-2016, 11:10 PM
https://www.jumeirah.com/en/hotels-resorts/dubai/burj-al-arab/ You guys got it all wrong...if you're nice to me I might let you stay at my hotel :D
Roger , ( hope I am not tempting fate ) think you should nominate a venue that AIR.NZ fly to .( Queenstown) Have a $ 4.00 party for all the believers . We could bring partners , they might like to do some shopping and we can get on it . :)
Roger , ( hope I am not tempting fate ) think you should nominate a venue that AIR.NZ fly to .( Queenstown) Have a $ 4.00 party for all the believers . We could bring partners , they might like to do some shopping and we can get on it . :)
Now this sounds a great idea, Rodger that hotel has limited access with one narrow entrance road across the water..would not want to be ambushed on entry or exit me thinks...
brend
05-02-2016, 08:07 AM
Roger , ( hope I am not tempting fate ) think you should nominate a venue that AIR.NZ fly to .( Queenstown) Have a $ 4.00 party for all the believers . We could bring partners , they might like to do some shopping and we can get on it . :)
isnt Roger Chris Luxon?
Beagle
05-02-2016, 10:10 AM
Roger , ( hope I am not tempting fate ) think you should nominate a venue that AIR.NZ fly to .( Queenstown) Have a $ 4.00 party for all the believers . We could bring partners , they might like to do some shopping and we can get on it . :)
Sounds like a great idea mate. Couat1 is up for it too, he loves it down there with the skiing. There might be a trip coming up for those interested this coming spring. Gotta spend that XXXXL final and special dividend wisely after all what's the point of investing if you can't have some fun with the spoils...
Robomo
05-02-2016, 10:47 AM
Roger , ( hope I am not tempting fate ) think you should nominate a venue that AIR.NZ fly to .( Queenstown) Have a $ 4.00 party for all the believers . We could bring partners , they might like to do some shopping and we can get on it . :)
$4.00? I'm in. The proceeds from my Rakon shares should cover it.
winner69
05-02-2016, 10:51 AM
which one Winner?
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/08/26/15/2BAC7CD800000578-3211591-Picture_9_Again_in_Shanghai_residents_remodelled_t heir_flat_and_-a-40_1440599780989.jpg
Good one Hoop but that's not 185 Fanshawe St, Auckland
Beagle
05-02-2016, 11:24 AM
Back to the thread subject folks. It's fair to say I've been surprised by the speed and extent of the fall in the SP and I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one. Looking at the depth and pattern of selling it seems for over a week now at least two institutions have been competing fairly vigorously to lighten their position.
I am not convinced this is a rational response, (there is significant new competition coming later this year and no way to sugar coat that) but likewise AIR are expanding strongly and as previously posted the latest stat's provide strong encouragement that they can fill their 12% capacity expansion, (half year to date 17% increase in RPK's).
I guess some institutions were simply spooked by all the negative press. Its good that the SP has so far held the 100 day MA which gives some comfort at a time when many will be struggling a little to cope with the turbulence.
All the monthly stat's to date have been very solid and the YTD stat's are very impressive. I continue to hold on the basis that I believe the management and marketing team are an extremely capable and talented group of people. Nobody likes turbulence but I guess one has to accept its par for the course with all airline stocks.
One things for sure..as Hoop says..these kind of shares are certainly volatile.
are you still ''only just'' Hoop?
percy
05-02-2016, 11:39 AM
Bums on seats!
From the CEO's weekly message 2/2/2016;
Grabaseat.
Highest ever sales week 18-24 January.
Biggest ever revenue day Tuesday 19th January,beating previous record by 23%.
Beagle
05-02-2016, 11:53 AM
Bums on seats!
From the CEO's weekly message 2/2/2016;
Grabaseat.
Highest ever sales week 18-24 January.
Biggest ever revenue day Tuesday 19th January,beating previous record by 23%.
Thanks Percy. Its nice to have some encouragement in turbulent times.
percy
05-02-2016, 12:00 PM
Thanks Percy. Its nice to have some encouragement in turbulent times.
Great management,lead by a brilliant CEO.
Great staff.
Great Planes.ie the right planes to do the job.Newish fleet better fuel economy and lower maintance costs.
Great Routes.
Great upgrades of Koru lounges.
Great deal more people travelling to NZ.
Great deal more people travelling within NZ.
Buns on seats drive profits.eps growth will drive the share price.
I would think you/we are "well positioned."
Mickey
05-02-2016, 12:01 PM
Singapore Airlines has beaten analyst predictions but sees headwinds with increased competition from budget rivals. Net profit up 36% and operating profit up 96%.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-04/singapore-airlines-beats-estimates-sees-challenges-ahead-ik85hayk
dobby41
05-02-2016, 12:18 PM
Buns on seats drive profits.eps growth will drive the share price.
They'd get squashed.
Kelvin
05-02-2016, 12:38 PM
Back to the thread subject folks. It's fair to say I've been surprised by the speed and extent of the fall in the SP and I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one. Looking at the depth and pattern of selling it seems for over a week now at least two institutions have been competing fairly vigorously to lighten their position.
I am not convinced this is a rational response, (there is significant new competition coming later this year and no way to sugar coat that) but likewise AIR are expanding strongly and as previously posted the latest stat's provide strong encouragement that they can fill their 12% capacity expansion, (half year to date 17% increase in RPK's).
I guess some institutions were simply spooked by all the negative press. Its good that the SP has so far held the 100 day MA which gives some comfort at a time when many will be struggling a little to cope with the turbulence.
All the monthly stat's to date have been very solid and the YTD stat's are very impressive. I continue to hold on the basis that I believe the management and marketing team are an extremely capable and talented group of people. Nobody likes turbulence but I guess one has to accept its par for the course with all airline stocks.
I agree with you Roger. This year should be good for them, Domestically with the Eagle Air operations winding down and the transition to an all Q300s and ATR72 fleet completing. Internationally with Houston and Buenos Aries starting, and I would expect them to announce something else new, perhaps Hobart or Manila.
With low oil prices and booming visitor numbers, the increased competition and capacity into NZ is not surprising. I wouldn't be surprised if AIR keeps some 767s for a bit longer (before ordering more new 787s) to keep up with this increased competition and demand.
But next year, watch out for further capacity coming into NZ from competitors (AA, Air Asia, Qatar etc.) and Jetstar regional operations expanding. I think I will sell before then.
Beagle
05-02-2016, 12:38 PM
Great management,lead by a brilliant CEO.
Great staff.
Great Planes.ie the right planes to do the job.Newish fleet better fuel economy and lower maintance costs.
Great Routes.
Great upgrades of Koru lounges.
Great deal more people travelling to NZ.
Great deal more people travelling within NZ.
Buns on seats drive profits.eps growth will drive the share price.
I would think you/we are "well positioned."
Agree 100% Percy. Also lead by an extremely capable group of Directors and growing at its fastest pace in its 75 year history. Good to have some older heads like Tony Carter for C.L. to defer too from time to time.
Hi Kelvin - No question the increased competition coming will have some impact and we've seen that reflected in the SP lately.
stoploss
05-02-2016, 01:27 PM
ENERAL: AIR: Air New Zealand's 2015 Data Book
Air New Zealand is pleased to launch a new look and feel to our investor
centre website, along with the release of the inaugural 2015 Data Book.
Click here for link to Air New Zealand's Investor Centre website:
http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/investor-centre
Click here for link to Air New Zealand's 2015 Databook:
http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/databook
That's good piece of booklet they put together for anyone looking for all info.
winner69
05-02-2016, 02:05 PM
That's good piece of booklet they put together for anyone looking for all info.
Always promote yourselves in good times
And all the numbers and charts will look even better in next years. book.
Will have to change the scale on the earnings chart houghton
samdaman
05-02-2016, 02:12 PM
Back to the thread subject folks. It's fair to say I've been surprised by the speed and extent of the fall in the SP and I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one. Looking at the depth and pattern of selling it seems for over a week now at least two institutions have been competing fairly vigorously to lighten their position.
I am not convinced this is a rational response, (there is significant new competition coming later this year and no way to sugar coat that) but likewise AIR are expanding strongly and as previously posted the latest stat's provide strong encouragement that they can fill their 12% capacity expansion, (half year to date 17% increase in RPK's).
I guess some institutions were simply spooked by all the negative press. Its good that the SP has so far held the 100 day MA which gives some comfort at a time when many will be struggling a little to cope with the turbulence.
All the monthly stat's to date have been very solid and the YTD stat's are very impressive. I continue to hold on the basis that I believe the management and marketing team are an extremely capable and talented group of people. Nobody likes turbulence but I guess one has to accept its par for the course with all airline stocks.
I wasn't too surprised to see it come back, albeit a bit quick it looked a smidge overbought IMO. I think I even said that a while back. Even I was getting itchy seeing it at that price. Wait for it to bounce off those MA's which it looks like its doing today? I've only got a slight eye on it ATM. Be greedy when others are fearful I guess
Beagle
05-02-2016, 02:27 PM
That's good piece of booklet they put together for anyone looking for all info.
Yes looks good on a very quick skim read, I'll have a thorough read ASAP, interesting to note they own rather than lease all their dreamliners, they must think they're on to a good thing with those fancy new birds..anyway here's the link folks:, just click on the pretty aircraft picture http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/databook
JohnnyTheHorse
05-02-2016, 03:38 PM
AIR good at doing this. Nice solid candlestick with a close on/near the high, followed by a few more days of fun. Will it happen again or is this just a DCB? Lets see if she can get to the 295 area today, which may provide a bit of resistance.
Why do they lease some aircraft and own others? Is it to do with the estimated life span or tax treatment - write down the depreciation rather than the lease as a expense.
I know one is a capital expense and if they have the capital available, get a better deal overall from the supplier rather than lease from a 3rd party?
Just wondering
dobby41
05-02-2016, 03:49 PM
Not life span as some aircraft type have both own and lease.
More likely 'purchased' at a time when leasing was more 'the thing' or they didn't have the borrowing capacity.
Also easy to return to lessor if there is a down turn and reduction in aircraft numbers is required. Selling them on a down market not easy.
brend
05-02-2016, 04:04 PM
Yes looks good on a very quick skim read, I'll have a thorough read ASAP, interesting to note they own rather than lease all their dreamliners, they must think they're on to a good thing with those fancy new birds..anyway here's the link folks:, just click on the pretty aircraft picture http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/databook
for aircraft on order have them made any prepayments/advances on them?
page 15 - "Give the cyclical nature of the airline industry" haha.
Talks about dividend policy, not share performance.
Beagle
05-02-2016, 04:32 PM
for aircraft on order have them made any prepayments/advances on them?
page 15 - "Give the cyclical nature of the airline industry" haha.
Talks about dividend policy, not share performance.
Must have been a typo error Airlines are growth business :D
Yes they make deposits and progress payments on aircraft on order and in fact specifically mentioned that they got extra incentives from Boeing in the 2015 year so pre-paid earlier on some of their FY16 scheduled deliveries. See note 9 to the accounts page 16. Progress payments as at 30 June 2015 $525m, ($209m) previous year.
Now no more curly questions today mate...it is Friday after all !
Good initiative by AIR to produce this data book, it makes interesting reading. I was very surprised by the graph on page 12 showing 'share price performance compared to key indices' since 2010. In this graph you can see that AIR share price has barely outperformed the NZX50 over the last five years (by 6% in the five year period) and has only very recently overtaken the NYSE ARCA airlines index. Go figure...
go figure,indeed.
This is a repeat from another thread,but I have a friend who ,in times of more than average uncertainty,simply shorts the share by the same amount as his investment and goes for the dividends.(cash flow)
in times of less uncertainty he shorts less,or not at all.(capital gain)
iceman
07-02-2016, 10:30 AM
Have just completed my first trip on the new EZE-AKL leg. Wandered throughout the plane and had a good chat to crew. This particular flight had both BC and PE full and economy about 80-90% full. Crew told me most of the flights so far have had good loads, lowest about 75%. But 2 of the crew also told me that they've been carrying lots of freight so on some occassions load limits have been reached before seats are all sold out, if I understood them correctly. My observation was that mainly Kiwis & Aussies were traveling BC & PE (Antarctic cruises season on now) and a big majority in economy class appeared to be South Americans. I thought this was interesting and hopefully means more tourism between the 2 countries. In any case, looks like Buenos Aires has been a good choice.
Beagle
07-02-2016, 06:47 PM
Good initiative by AIR to produce this data book, it makes interesting reading. I was very surprised by the graph on page 12 showing 'share price performance compared to key indices' since 2010. In this graph you can see that AIR share price has barely outperformed the NZX50 over the last five years (by 6% in the five year period) and has only very recently overtaken the NYSE ARCA airlines index. Go figure...
Hi Poet. I think there's two factors at play there. 1. 2010 was a low point for the airline coping with the fallout from the GFC and the effects of six billion dollars, (that's not a typo) of money that was wiped out by the collapse of dozens of finance companies in N.Z. Remembering that the majority of bookings are from Kiwi's you simply cannot lose that vast amount of money from people's personal wealth and while the memory is fresh without it having quite an effect on how people chose to spend their remaining disposable income. In short, people spend a lot less on travel when they feel poor.
2. The stock is presently under priced because it seems many (despite being in a period of pretty challenging economic times both nationally and internationally), think we're at the peak of the earnings cycle. My contention is that if oil was somewhat higher (say $70), and there was far more national and international economic growth I think AIR would actually do better than in this cheap oil low growth era where yields are compromised. Regarding the whole cyclical thing, a short while back I expressed my thoughts that I believed it was strange that the consensus analyst forecast for FY18 earnings was 32 cps given that analysts didn't see the same level of cyclicality with QAN earnings. I see analysts are starting to see my point of view and consensus eps for that year is now over 40.8 cps a pretty remarkable 28% increase. http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/
A couple of other interesting facts came out of that databook. Have a look at the projected average aircraft age over the next few years and check out the number of full time employees which was at its lowest point in 2015 despite the growth. New efficiencies and strong RPK growth are also part and parcel of why future earnings will be supercharged and in my view lower oil is less of an influence than people are realising due to its effects on yields.
Virgin Australia profits rise as domestic fares surge
http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/virgin-australia-profits-rise-as-domestic-fares-surge-20160210-gmqr1w.html
Hi Poet. I think there's two factors at play there. 1. 2010 was a low point for the airline coping with the fallout from the GFC and the effects of six billion dollars, (that's not a typo) of money that was wiped out by the collapse of dozens of finance companies in N.Z. Remembering that the majority of bookings are from Kiwi's you simply cannot lose that vast amount of money from people's personal wealth and while the memory is fresh without it having quite an effect on how people chose to spend their remaining disposable income. In short, people spend a lot less on travel when they feel poor.
2. The stock is presently under priced because it seems many (despite being in a period of pretty challenging economic times both nationally and internationally), think we're at the peak of the earnings cycle. My contention is that if oil was somewhat higher (say $70), and there was far more national and international economic growth I think AIR would actually do better than in this cheap oil low growth era where yields are compromised. Regarding the whole cyclical thing, a short while back I expressed my thoughts that I believed it was strange that the consensus analyst forecast for FY18 earnings was 32 cps given that analysts didn't see the same level of cyclicality with QAN earnings. I see analysts are starting to see my point of view and consensus eps for that year is now over 40.8 cps a pretty remarkable 28% increase. http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/
A couple of other interesting facts came out of that databook. Have a look at the projected average aircraft age over the next few years and check out the number of full time employees which was at its lowest point in 2015 despite the growth. New efficiencies and strong RPK growth are also part and parcel of why future earnings will be supercharged and in my view lower oil is less of an influence than people are realising due to its effects on yields.
Lets just hope people dont START to feel poor (storm clouds ahead?)
Lets just hope people dont START to feel poor (storm clouds ahead?)
Well looking at the share price Skid..that will be all of us soon!
Beagle
12-02-2016, 02:23 PM
Lets just hope people dont START to feel poor (storm clouds ahead?)
No question its been a tough start to the year for most markets including ours. Add in significant new competition for AIR and you've got the recipe for some genuine pain.
That said, unemployment unexpectedly fell last month, interest rates are plumbing 60 year lows and headed lower so anyone with debt has materially more disposable income and consumers are faring well from cheap petrol further assisting disposable income. Factor in cheaper airfares and I don't see demand changing much but the market is clearly worried about yields going forward.
Yes,I think alot are getting caught in the collateral damage atm--the volatile nature of airlines has perhaps amplified it a bit. (whens the last time anyone has seem gold go up 5% in a day)--might be a storm in a teacup but it seems like the public is not thinking ATM or AIR--they are thinking ..the stock market..
Baa_Baa
12-02-2016, 02:57 PM
Could be a rally later to close above the 200MA, but currently it's just gone below. Plenty here see 200MA as a significant turning point.
percy
12-02-2016, 04:53 PM
Could be a rally later to close above the 200MA, but currently it's just gone below. Plenty here see 200MA as a significant turning point.
Still looks great using a 399 day EMA.!!
The uptrend is intact.!
Valuegrowth
12-02-2016, 05:21 PM
Commodity users are winners. Cheaper jet fuel thanks to falling oil prices has helped Air Lines including AIR NZ. According to new research from World Travel Market London, the travel industry looks set for further growth in 2016. This will lead to growth in other industry such as food, hotels and restaurants etc as well.
http://www.accordgroup.co.uk/blog/global-travel-outlook-2016
Global travel outlook for 2016
Baa_Baa
12-02-2016, 06:24 PM
Still looks great using a 399 day EMA.!!
The uptrend is intact.!
17 pips down -5.9% in one day, sliced through the 200MA. It's been a tough past three weeks. The big uptrend looks fine at around $2.30 and plenty of technical supports before then. This week was a technical sell on my weekly chart, but if it all turns to custard the Die Hards might watch for the 'double death cross' for a late but save-yr-butt exit ... that's the 200MA crossing down through the 400MA.
:ohmy:
Beagle
12-02-2016, 06:46 PM
Great management,lead by a brilliant CEO.
Great staff.
Great Planes.ie the right planes to do the job.Newish fleet better fuel economy and lower maintance costs.
Great Routes.
Great upgrades of Koru lounges.
Great deal more people travelling to NZ.
Great deal more people travelling within NZ.
Buns on seats drive profits.eps growth will drive the share price.
I would think you/we are "well positioned."
Nothing material has changed and Percy summed it up well earlier this month. Other airlines I follow have seen much lesser falls in their SP's in recent weeks. I think the fall is overdone but that's not to say for sure the correction doesn't have some distance to travel. Those who believe that fundamentally this is an extremely well run airline could have quite an opportunity at some point in the near future. Fortune favours the brave...
Monday should show how much of this is AIR and how much is the share markets in general(which bounced Friday,because of a rise in oil)
If it bounces it will show that its because of the markets--which means a rise in oil has been good for AIR (crazy world isnt it)
percy
13-02-2016, 11:57 AM
Monday should show how much of this is AIR and how much is the share markets in general(which bounced Friday,because of a rise in oil)
If it bounces it will show that its because of the markets--which means a rise in oil has been good for AIR (crazy world isnt it)
In a crazy world will an investor who uses common sense beat the market?
Will an investor who is immune from fear and greed,and bases his investing on his own research into fundamentally sound, individual companies beat the market?
I will find out the answers in under two weeks, when AIR announce their result on the 25th.
In the meantime I will back myself,and forget "the noise".!
winner69
13-02-2016, 12:05 PM
In a crazy world will an investor who uses common sense beat the market?
Will an investor who is immune from fear and greed,and bases his investing on his own research into fundamentally sound, individual companies beat the market?
I will find out the answers in under two weeks, when AIR announce their result on the 25th.
In the meantime I will back myself,and forget "the noise".!
I'm sure you will beat the market Percy
But if the market is down 20% and you are down 15%,is that a good result?
Earnings will be OK for a while -- but what will the 'market' pay for those earnings?
percy
13-02-2016, 12:23 PM
I'm sure you will beat the market Percy
But if the market is down 20% and you are down 15%,is that a good result?
Earnings will be OK for a while -- but what will the 'market' pay for those earnings?
Well I guess investing in "the market" is all about objectives and targets.
My objective and target has been to increase my capital base,which I have done.
The next objective was for that increased capital to be invested in dividend paying companies to provide me with a good income,which it is doing. Those companies have the capacity to keep increasing their dividends.
So where am I should the market fall 15% to 20%?.Well to be honest I am sitting back enjoying the fat dividends,and am "well positioned" for when the market goes chasing those high dividend paying companies.
While I am still working, those increasing dividends are being recycled into either undervalued dividend payers,or my "fun" portfolio of small cap Aussie.
I did take some of my profits off the table a few weeks ago, as I was fully invested,and thought a bit of cash would give me the fire power to buy any "bargains" the market may offer me.
winner69
13-02-2016, 12:53 PM
Well I guess investing in "the market" is all about objectives and targets.
My objective and target has been to increase my capital base,which I have done.
The next objective was for that increased capital to be invested in dividend paying companies to provide me with a good income,which it is doing. Those companies have the capacity to keep increasing their dividends.
So where am I should the market fall 15% to 20%?.Well to be honest I am sitting back enjoying the fat dividends,and am "well positioned" for when the market goes chasing those high dividend paying companies.
While I am still working, those increasing dividends are being recycled into either undervalued dividend payers,or my "fun" portfolio of small cap Aussie.
I did take some of my profits off the table a few weeks ago, as I was fully invested,and thought a bit of cash would give me the fire power to buy any "bargains" the market may offer me.
Good plan Percy
May those increasing dividends keep rolling in for years to come
Glad your plan is working out,Percy..I was'nt suggesting you change it. Having said that,iI have no doubts that if the noise gets to loud you will adjust accordingly:)
percy
13-02-2016, 02:13 PM
Glad your plan is working out,Percy..I was'nt suggesting you change it. Having said that,iI have no doubts that if the noise gets to loud you will adjust accordingly:)
Maybe??
I like to think I am more inclined to react to companies results,rather than noise.
With AIR I am expecting a fantastic result, with a very positive outlook.Most probably good news on the dividend front too.In which case I will add to my holding.
Should the result be poor I will be gone.!
And that is the same with all [well nearly all] of my holdings.
Beagle
13-02-2016, 04:54 PM
Speaking of firepower to take advantage of opportunities I think there's quite a few people on here who are fairly cashed up at present. I think fear of the unknown in terms of future competition has got the better of some holders.
percy
13-02-2016, 05:22 PM
Traditionally AIR's biggest profits have been made in NZ.Goes right back to the merger between NAC and Air NZ.
For someone to make big inroads into this profit base they would need a huge investment in infrastructure,equipment,people and the right aircraft.So old odd planes will not cut the mustard.
Yes some international carriers can add Auckland Sydney type of routes, but the likes of Jetstar would have to make a big investment.
When I am in Nelson I stay next door to the airport..I am woken up first thing in the morning by AIR flights.Flights all day long, they are in and out of Nelson.
AIR under CEO Luxton have focussed on the customer.Planes,time of flights,routes,lounges,bookings etc,.They know what their customers want better than any other airline does,and they deliver the service to retain those customers.
JohnnyTheHorse
13-02-2016, 08:30 PM
It has reached the area of the medium term trend line and support lines. Each stock responds differently to different indicators - AIR does not behave with the 200dma. Monday may present a good buying opportunity, or we may see it test 265. International market uncertainties making it quite hard to play.
It has reached the area of the medium term trend line and support lines. Each stock responds differently to different indicators - AIR does not behave with the 200dma. Monday may present a good buying opportunity, or we may see it test 265. International market uncertainties making it quite hard to play.
As someone who has worked fundamental analysis for a living in the US, an financial auditor before that, i should be heavy biased to fundamentals. In reality I actually think that behavioural considerations matter more in markets. Of late I have made more out of the noise than fundamentals, markets react to uncertainty and so many people can understand a sound bite and react to that simply. So media sound bites matter. Sure if you buy in a low base it may matter less as a consideration, dividends are nice however no point if you are losing capital at a greater rate IMHO. Focusing on the now, AIR will have a great result, good dividend, however I expect that will have a limited effect on the share price beyond the short term.
I simply now take forward indicators I see in my client base,network and react before they are translated into anything reported in the media. I do look at financials, as i have that skill, however my weighting on them is way less.
winner69
14-02-2016, 08:33 AM
As someone who has worked fundamental analysis for a living in the US, an financial auditor before that, i should be heavy biased to fundamentals. In reality I actually think that behavioural considerations matter more in markets. Of late I have made more out of the noise than fundamentals, markets react to uncertainty and so many people can understand a sound bite and react to that simply. So media sound bites matter. Sure if you buy in a low base it may matter less as a consideration, dividends are nice however no point if you are losing capital at a greater rate IMHO. Focusing on the now, AIR will have a great result, good dividend, however I expect that will have a limited effect on the share price beyond the short term.
I simply now take forward indicators I see in my client base,network and react before they are translated into anything reported in the media. I do look at financials, as i have that skill, however my weighting on them is way less.
Good post raz.
I think much along the same lines as you do.
Financials/fundamentals are very important. It is worth the effort to assess an 'intrinsic value' of the company. (Medium/long timeframe)
But it's what the market wants to pay for those earnings that drives price at any point in time (short term/medium timeframe)
Big difference in price between say 8 times earnings and 20 times earnings. That's noise.
winner69
14-02-2016, 08:34 AM
As someone who has worked fundamental analysis for a living in the US, an financial auditor before that, i should be heavy biased to fundamentals. In reality I actually think that behavioural considerations matter more in markets. Of late I have made more out of the noise than fundamentals, markets react to uncertainty and so many people can understand a sound bite and react to that simply. So media sound bites matter. Sure if you buy in a low base it may matter less as a consideration, dividends are nice however no point if you are losing capital at a greater rate IMHO. Focusing on the now, AIR will have a great result, good dividend, however I expect that will have a limited effect on the share price beyond the short term.
I simply now take forward indicators I see in my client base,network and react before they are translated into anything reported in the media. I do look at financials, as i have that skill, however my weighting on them is way less.
Good post raz.
I think much along the same lines as you do.
Financials/fundamentals are very important. It is worth the effort to assess an 'intrinsic value' of the company. (Medium/long timeframe)
But it's what the market wants to pay for those earnings that drives price at any point in time (short term/medium timeframe)
Big difference in price between say 8 times earnings and 20 times earnings. That's noise.
Market sentiment rules
Zaphod
14-02-2016, 10:37 AM
Traditionally AIR's biggest profits have been made in NZ.Goes right back to the merger between NAC and Air NZ.
For someone to make big inroads into this profit base they would need a huge investment in infrastructure,equipment,people and the right aircraft.So old odd planes will not cut the mustard.
I agree. IMO, at some point in the not so distance future route and operator consolidation will occur again. Higher fuel prices will just hasten this process. NZ and to a lesser extent JQ will remain the major players in the domestic market.
Beagle
14-02-2016, 04:40 PM
Total seat capacity into and exiting N.Z. is apparently scheduled to grow from 8.4 million seats in CY2015 to 9.4 million seats in CY2016, an increase of 1 million seats or 11.9%.
Some people obviously see all the new competition as the death knell for yields. OTPH others will know that tourism is currently growing at 10% per annum and outbound tourism at 6% per annum and with cheaper fares in real terms it seems quite easy to extrapolate the trend to logically analyse that seat capacity increases are probably going to be necessary to meet demand growth and there won't be the bloodbath of competition some are imagining might come.
Upon reflection I'm not so sure Mr Luxon did shareholders a great favour by saying what he did to journalists a couple of weeks ago but many seem to have ignored the context in which he made those remarks, (see further back in the thread if you're not sure what I'm referring too). At the risk of sounding like a broken record, in my opinion Mr Luxon is a master at being politically correct when he needs to be to keep the public / politicians on side.
Many were sceptical when AIR were growing capacity at 6% last year and never thought they'd fill the planes and they were wrong. Those same sceptics are presently in abundence now that AIR are growing seat capacity at 12% per annum and yet demand growth to 31 December 2015 has been 17%. The stat's all point to an extremely strong current operating environment and I am confident going forward that seat demand will be there for the capacity growth on offer.
The caveat to that is a GFC Mk2 situation, (did we ever really get through the first one properly ?) which many seem to be starting to figure is a very real possibility. As usual..only time will tell.
Baa_Baa
14-02-2016, 05:38 PM
I hope there's not another GFC, last time AIR got pummelled.
7892
7893
AIR Monthly chart
janner
14-02-2016, 06:09 PM
" Some people obviously see all the new competition as the death knell for yields. " ( Roger )
Have booked one way to Hong Kong @ 33% ( Approx ) cheaper than AIR NZ.
Or put another way.. AIR NZ is 50% ( Approx ) dearer..
I see no death knell... Just a very good saving..
Disc. Not a holder.
Beagle
14-02-2016, 06:56 PM
I hope there's not another GFC, last time AIR got pummelled.
7892
7893
AIR Monthly chart
I think we can all agree we live in interesting times. Seen some big drops in cyclical's in the U.S. in the past month and a half. Delta, American Airlines, even Ford, all trading on forward PE's of less than 6 now. Market seems to be pricing in at least a 50% chance of a recession. I'm sticking with my estimate that AIR are going to make 68 cps this year incl of VAH contribution so by my calculations they're on a forward PE of just a little under 4 at $2.695. AIR treated too harshly by the market in recent days ?
Valuegrowth
14-02-2016, 07:11 PM
This industry has more competition .Only strong competitors will survive in the future. Both AIR NIZ and Singapore Airlines are two of the reliable airlines in the world.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/76207978/transtasman-competition-heats-up-as-foreign-airlines-enter-market
Trans-Tasman competition heats up as foreign airlines enter market
Beagle
15-02-2016, 11:05 AM
Bought more on the open this morning $2.73...too cheap...like a short and wide delivery in a 20/20 cricket match...smacked it to the boundary
thestg
15-02-2016, 11:10 AM
It passed my stop-loss last week but instead of selling I increased my loan on Friday & also bought more this morning at $2.73. With breath held my stop loss has cleared & hopefully the upward thermal will continue.
It passed my stop-loss last week but instead of selling I increased my loan on Friday & also bought more this morning at $2.73. With breath held my stop loss has cleared & hopefully the upward thermal will continue.
Currently buying also....
Nasi Goreng
15-02-2016, 11:30 AM
So to continue with the cricketing analogy, Roger's innings has been well established and he's just gone past 50 with that nice shot to the boundary. thestg looks twitchy, he's out of form and he has just got off the mark with a couple of quick singles. Hopefully thestg can build a nice innings from here but if he gets bowled, things will look real ugly.
Beagle
15-02-2016, 11:44 AM
So to continue with the cricketing analogy, Roger's innings has been well established and he's just gone past 50 with that nice shot to the boundary. thestg looks twitchy, he's out of form and he has just got off the mark with a couple of quick singles. Hopefully thestg can build a nice innings from here but if he gets bowled, things will look real ugly.
You forgot to mention that I was eyeing up Lance Cairns excalibar bat all weekend. I was looking to hit it right out of Eden Park if we had another fall from $2.69 :) Couta1 well positioned back in the pavilion having completely a superbly crafted century.
Nasi Goreng
15-02-2016, 11:52 AM
So thats where Couta1 is. I haven't seen his posts in a while. He's done well since he got rid of those ducks... couldn't get off xero for a while.
It passed my stop-loss last week but instead of selling I increased my loan on Friday & also bought more this morning at $2.73. With breath held my stop loss has cleared & hopefully the upward thermal will continue.
It makes the hairs stand up on my neck when I read posts like this--I think its a dangerous strategy ,but best of luck.
So thats where Couta1 is. I haven't seen his posts in a while. He's done well since he got rid of those ducks... couldn't get off xero for a while.
He managed,but by the skin of his teeth ,before the next drop came--Im not sure if any lessons were learned ,but he would still be up on this one--He must be loving that green arrow.
goldfish
15-02-2016, 06:30 PM
It passed my stop-loss last week but instead of selling I increased my loan on Friday & also bought more this morning at $2.73. With breath held my stop loss has cleared & hopefully the upward thermal will continue.
Well that gives a new meaning to the word stoploss.
Well that gives a new meaning to the word stoploss.
That is living large!
stoploss
15-02-2016, 08:51 PM
It passed my stop-loss last week but instead of selling I increased my loan on Friday & also bought more this morning at $2.73. With breath held my stop loss has cleared & hopefully the upward thermal will continue.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dTJWdPmYM3U
Beagle
15-02-2016, 08:52 PM
That is living large!
Looking at a decent special divvy this year plus XXL interim and final divvies...can't see any way these are adding up to less than 35 cps fully imputed so a net yield of at least 13% at today's close this year and AIR have a fairly low level of scheduled capex for FY17 so no reason they can't replicate those divvies next year too. Arguably one of the highest dividends yields on the NZX so well capable of funding one's leverage for those that choose to gear up and be aggressive.
Baa_Baa
15-02-2016, 09:00 PM
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dTJWdPmYM3U
True, very gutsy overriding stops (discipline?), given that AIR collapses on US markets down days, then following US Friday's very respectable rally AIR can only gouge a cent on the upside today while NZX climbs back over 6000 for a 1.69% gain. Honestly, in current climate I don't think fundamentals per se will save AIR, it's all about sentiment and cyclicals, you have to read the tea leaves, the chicken entrails and heaven forbid ... maybe a chart! Outside the banks, this is right up there with the scariest shares on the market, imho.
Beagle
15-02-2016, 09:04 PM
True, very gutsy overriding stops (discipline?), given that AIR collapses on US markets down days, then following US Friday's very respectable rally AIR can only gouge a cent on the upside today while NZX climbs back over 6000 for a 1.69% gain. Honestly, in current climate I don't think fundamentals per se will save AIR, it's all about sentiment and cyclicals, you have to read the tea leaves, the chicken entrails and heaven forbid ... maybe a chart! Outside the banks, this is right up there with the scariest shares on the market, imho.
Not for the faint of heart at present I absolutely agree but as always be careful with statistics. AIR's vwap was $2.7327 a 1.4% gain based on vwap for the day. Disappointing though I grant you that, epecially after Friday's 5.9% fall. Not long now till the 25th Feb and we should get a stunning result, some great January operating stat's and hopefully some forward guidance to help calm investors nerves.
The call will be interesting, I'll be dialling in and will share my thoughts afterwards. Some of the analysts are healthy cynics and will be asking the hard questions regarding forward demand, competition and yield impact if any.
Baa_Baa
15-02-2016, 09:05 PM
Looking at a decent special divvy this year plus XXL interim and final divvies...can't see any way these are adding up to less than 35 cps fully imputed so a net yield of at least 13% at today's close this year and AIR have a fairly low level of scheduled capex for FY17 so no reason they can't replicate those divvies next year too. Arguably one of the highest dividends yields on the NZX so well capable of funding one's leverage for those that choose to gear up and be aggressive.
Seriously Roger, lets add the current SP to your forecast divvy, say $3.06, and assuming the broads continue to sit on the side of negative sentiment (plus with cyclical tendencies), wouldn't you just quit the stock after the divi and see where it settles in the aftermath, it could go very low? I don't get this big balls approach to exposing capital for the sake of a divi, especially when the divi's are a long time between drinks in a capital eroding market?
Beagle
15-02-2016, 09:26 PM
Seriously Roger, lets add the current SP to your forecast divvy, say $3.06, and assuming the broads continue to sit on the side of negative sentiment (plus with cyclical tendencies), wouldn't you just quit the stock after the divi and see where it settles in the aftermath, it could go very low? I don't get this big balls approach to exposing capital for the sake of a divi, especially when the divi's are a long time between drinks in a capital eroding market?
Technically it's broken through the 100 day MA and looks weak. Fundamentally its never been more compelling in many years. Sentiment about future competition and where overseas markets go are clearly the wild cards. Let me answer your question with another. Who's wiser...someone geared to say 85% on Auckland rental properties generating on average about a 3-4% gross dividend yield after expenses or someone geared to say 50% on AIR shares on a forward PE of about 4 with a net dividend yield of 13% ? There's nothing safer than houses right ?????
Seriously Roger, lets add the current SP to your forecast divvy, say $3.06, and assuming the broads continue to sit on the side of negative sentiment (plus with cyclical tendencies), wouldn't you just quit the stock after the divi and see where it settles in the aftermath, it could go very low? I don't get this big balls approach to exposing capital for the sake of a divi, especially when the divi's are a long time between drinks in a capital eroding market?
I have purchased at a much lower base previously, just bought in today with proceeds of selling at 3.09 just a few weeks back...will looking at exiting after the dividend declared as suggested. I agree market forces will dictate rather than fundaments. I remember attending a number of funerals around the GFC, some were people crushed by margin calls..talk about a defining time.
Baa_Baa
15-02-2016, 09:56 PM
Technically it's broken through the 100 day MA and looks weak. Fundamentally its never been more compelling in many years. Sentiment about future competition and where overseas markets go are clearly the wild cards. Let me answer your question with another. Who's wiser...someone geared to say 85% on Auckland rental properties generating on average about a 3-4% gross dividend yield after expenses or someone geared to say 50% on AIR shares on a forward PE of about 4 with a net dividend yield of 13% ? There's nothing safer than houses right ?????
Sorry, I understand this analogy even less than the hold and pray strategy, but I don't think Roger does the hold and pray thing do you? I think you will tough it out to the divi and quit the stock rather than risk a calamity, assuming the markets keep tanking.
Baa_Baa
15-02-2016, 09:59 PM
I have purchased at a much lower base previously, just bought in today with proceeds of selling at 3.09 just a few weeks back...will looking at exiting after the dividend declared as suggested. I agree market forces will dictate rather than fundaments. I remember attending a number of funerals around the GFC, some were people crushed by margin calls..talk about a defining time.
Sad story, I hope it doesn't happen again, but it might. One needs to be on top of their capital in the current climate, especially with very volatile markets and cyclical sectors. It can turn ugly very quickly while waiting for the next divi payday. Though that's jmho.
thestg
16-02-2016, 08:30 AM
Well that gives a new meaning to the word stoploss.
To clarify – I should have said that Air went below my Trailing Stop Loss.
When I first purchased I set my original stop loss at $2.33. This was set at this as I was looking at the biggest loss I could accept.
I then went back over the last years drops in AIR & found the largest was about 14.5% drop over a one week period.
I set my trailing stop loss at that 14.5% of the highest close price, so when it got to $3.23 on 26 Jan this set my Trailing stop loss at $2.76.
When the price went below $2.76 last Friday I should have cashed in and paid off my loan.
But what I did was look at if I could still afford a small loss, invest a little more & take a little more risk for a higher gain (Hopefully).
So I revised my Stop loss down to half way between the original SL $2.33 & my TSL $2.76 which is now $2.54
I’ll set my TSL at 14.61% so that it will cut in when/if the price gets to $2.98
i.e. 2.98 x (1-0.1461) = $2.54 which is the same as my present stop loss.
So I am not totally forgetting about my Stop Loss, I am just reassessing what risk I am prepared to take.
GR8DAY
16-02-2016, 09:03 AM
......i just buy them when they are low and sell them when they are high. I seem to make money doing this. KISS.
goldfish
16-02-2016, 09:09 AM
To clarify – I should have said that Air went below my Trailing Stop Loss.
When I first purchased I set my original stop loss at $2.33. This was set at this as I was looking at the biggest loss I could accept.
I then went back over the last years drops in AIR & found the largest was about 14.5% drop over a one week period.
I set my trailing stop loss at that 14.5% of the highest close price, so when it got to $3.23 on 26 Jan this set my Trailing stop loss at $2.76.
When the price went below $2.76 last Friday I should have cashed in and paid off my loan.
But what I did was look at if I could still afford a small loss, invest a little more & take a little more risk for a higher gain (Hopefully).
So I revised my Stop loss down to half way between the original SL $2.33 & my TSL $2.76 which is now $2.54
I’ll set my TSL at 14.61% so that it will cut in when/if the price gets to $2.98
i.e. 2.98 x (1-0.1461) = $2.54 which is the same as my present stop loss.
So I am not totally forgetting about my Stop Loss, I am just reassessing what risk I am prepared to take.
All good mate you don't have to explain yourself to me.
Hope it works for you.
......i just buy them when they are low and sell them when they are high. I seem to make money doing this. KISS.
Exactly. Why complicate things.
To clarify – I should have said that Air went below my Trailing Stop Loss.
When I first purchased I set my original stop loss at $2.33. This was set at this as I was looking at the biggest loss I could accept.
I then went back over the last years drops in AIR & found the largest was about 14.5% drop over a one week period.
I set my trailing stop loss at that 14.5% of the highest close price, so when it got to $3.23 on 26 Jan this set my Trailing stop loss at $2.76.
When the price went below $2.76 last Friday I should have cashed in and paid off my loan.
But what I did was look at if I could still afford a small loss, invest a little more & take a little more risk for a higher gain (Hopefully).
So I revised my Stop loss down to half way between the original SL $2.33 & my TSL $2.76 which is now $2.54
I’ll set my TSL at 14.61% so that it will cut in when/if the price gets to $2.98
i.e. 2.98 x (1-0.1461) = $2.54 which is the same as my present stop loss.
So I am not totally forgetting about my Stop Loss, I am just reassessing what risk I am prepared to take.
Could have saved time writing all the complex and intelligent formula words and just say.."I was naughty, I broke my discipline"..
Actually you created a bigger investor sin...not only did you ignore your stop loss, you bought more to averaged down..
You must have Irish genes..:D
Luck of the Irish (http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=luck+of+the+irish&defid=2913478)
This isn't luck at all, but more of an attitude, a positive look at a bad situation.
The Irish didn't survive a potato famine, and being treated as 3rd class citizens upon their arrival to the U.S. (til the mid-late 1900's)by not having a positive outlook and a great sense of humor!
Mary-"I was just wearing my new shoes today when I stepped in a HUGE cow ****"
Michael-"Well then, tis a LUCKY thing you were wearing shoes!"
Mary-"Yea, Luck of the Irish"
To clarify – I should have said that Air went below my Trailing Stop Loss.
When I first purchased I set my original stop loss at $2.33. This was set at this as I was looking at the biggest loss I could accept.
I then went back over the last years drops in AIR & found the largest was about 14.5% drop over a one week period.
I set my trailing stop loss at that 14.5% of the highest close price, so when it got to $3.23 on 26 Jan this set my Trailing stop loss at $2.76.
When the price went below $2.76 last Friday I should have cashed in and paid off my loan.
But what I did was look at if I could still afford a small loss, invest a little more & take a little more risk for a higher gain (Hopefully).
So I revised my Stop loss down to half way between the original SL $2.33 & my TSL $2.76 which is now $2.54
I’ll set my TSL at 14.61% so that it will cut in when/if the price gets to $2.98
i.e. 2.98 x (1-0.1461) = $2.54 which is the same as my present stop loss.
So I am not totally forgetting about my Stop Loss, I am just reassessing what risk I am prepared to take.
Good to know you have a plan
JohnnyTheHorse
16-02-2016, 09:26 AM
The inverted hammer yesterday and what looks likely to be a gap up on open could be a downtrend reversal. Not the most reliable pattern indicator though.
She's one unpredictable beast at the moment, so who knows!
Quite frankly ,I was surprised at the lack of a bounce yesterday--Looks like it may be a day late(at first glance)---Still wouldnt be getting a loan for any stock though-especially in this market,but you may have just gotten lucky--If you have (gotten lucky),maybe consider banking some profits and getting out of that loan.
We have all heard the biggest saying of them all ''never use money you cant afford to lose'' IMO it trumps all the others
2.2% from the get go, lovely.
Beagle
16-02-2016, 11:34 AM
Sorry, I understand this analogy even less than the hold and pray strategy, but I don't think Roger does the hold and pray thing do you? I think you will tough it out to the divi and quit the stock rather than risk a calamity, assuming the markets keep tanking.
Some of the key investment themes I'm playing this year and next are
1. Interest rates are at 60 year lows and will soon be at 100 year lows so consumers will have plenty of extra spending power.
2. Low / No international growth has created a benign environment for commodity demand and oil will stay lower for longer
3. Because of 2, consumers will have even more money to spend on leisure, tourism, food...whatever.
4. Despite cheaper alternatives, (many with extremely dense seating arrangements and other compromises), Kiwi's are quite a parochial bunch or hardy individuals and many see flying as a trust issue as well, Kiwi's will by and large continue to support their national airline whether they're shareholders or not.
5. Cheaper airfares and a lower $Kiwi will stimulate ever higher level's of inbound and outbound travel and easily fill the circa 12% extra seat capacity into and out of N.Z.
I continue to believe in the superb quality of the management and staff at AIR. Despite ructions overseas the world keeps turning and people will continue to want to travel and a fairly high percentage of people doing so want to travel on a quality airline with a good reputation.
Happy to ride out the turbulence and I have no intention whatsoever of selling.
Marilyn Munroe
16-02-2016, 12:34 PM
4...... (many with extremely dense seating arrangements and other compromises), .....i
Cullen Airlines are no strangers to the concept of thrombosis class cabin seating.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
I saw an article in the paper (cant remember the exact day that showed the increase in total seats as compared to previous years--There is certainly alot more seats available now(more choice)
Im not so sure about Kiwis paying more out of loyalty to their national airline if standards of the others are roughly the same--(guess we (or someone)would have to do a survey to find that out.
We have found out from experience that those super specials are for a VERY limited amount of seats(the wife needs to go to Montreal)
Its the same ole trick,but Im sure they all do it.--In the end I think she is looking at less than $200 cheaper than a few years back (when oil was much higher) Cest la Vie
At 64kilos,Im patienly waiting for them to change over to total weight,instead of just baggage:)
I saw an article in the paper (cant remember the exact day that showed the increase in total seats as compared to previous years--There is certainly alot more seats available now(more choice)
Im not so sure about Kiwis paying more out of loyalty to their national airline if standards of the others are roughly the same--(guess we (or someone)would have to do a survey to find that out.
We have found out from experience that those super specials are for a VERY limited amount of seats(the wife needs to go to Montreal)
Its the same ole trick,but Im sure they all do it.--In the end I think she is looking at less than $200 cheaper than a few years back (when oil was much higher) Cest la Vie
At 64kilos,Im patienly waiting for them to change over to total weight,instead of just baggage:)
Yes some of Rodgers assumptions are certainly debatable. Jetstar has had great success based on price with kiwis. (with inferior network & product)
Tourism is certainly capacity constrained so without the infrastructure has limited further growth.
Air Governance is ok although as a consultant don't think their customer focus and marketing is world class...
A certain sector had disposal income however pricing suggest that is not the case for the majority. It is a different matter to get it from them. AIR certainly limited its specials to maintain margins..result they have lost me as a client - my 7 overseas trips this year (given competition) means I have only had to spend 58% of my planned flight budget. All booked, done and dusted.
Still it doesn't have to be a world class company to make an investor a lot of money i.e xero being a classic example..made a lot of money off them even though they have severe limitations.
Beagle
16-02-2016, 02:14 PM
9.4 v 8.4 million seats Skid, (total inbound and outbound). Predicted seat growth 11.9%. Historical tourism growth rate currently 10%. Cheaper airfares with new carriers arriving and a low $Kiwi means I think its reasonable to assume demand growth will match capacity growth. AIR more than getting their share with ASK's growing at 12% and RPK's growing at 17% YTD per Dec 2015 YTD operating stat's.
"Air governance is okay" Raz Do you realise Tony Carter won Chairman of the year at last year's Deloitte Top 200 company awards ?
CFO Rob McDonald won CFO of the year at the same award ceremony. From what I'm aware they are also well regarded in the industry for being innovative with their marketing and promotion..a fine example are their highly creative safety briefing video's.
You're a very hard person to impress, glad I don't work for you mate, (no offence intended).
"Jetstar has had great success based on price with kiwi's", Raz. Really ? Do they publish the net profit for the N.Z. division of Jetstar and if so would you please advise the net profit after tax for Jetstar N.Z. for each of the five years to 2015 ? Are they presently profitable with their new regional flights ?
Marilyn Munroe
16-02-2016, 02:31 PM
We have found out from experience that those super specials are for a VERY limited amount of seats(the wife needs to go to Montreal)
Appologies for the off topic post but Skid can you tell how the cost savings versus hassle factor works out flying to an airport south of the border and renting a car for the final leg as an alternative to flying direct to Montreal by Maple Syrup Airlines and their protected market price gouging?
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
don't think their customer focus and marketing is world class...
With due respect I beg to differ 100% on your view as above, I think their marketing is world class and they are very Customer-centric, you only need to listen to Mr Luxon on few of his media interviews and you know why.
LadyGrey
16-02-2016, 02:53 PM
Yes some of Rodgers assumptions are certainly debatable. Jetstar has had great success based on price with kiwis. (with inferior network & product)
Tourism is certainly capacity constrained so without the infrastructure has limited further growth.
Air Governance is ok although as a consultant don't think their customer focus and marketing is world class...
A certain sector had disposal income however pricing suggest that is not the case for the majority. It is a different matter to get it from them. AIR certainly limited its specials to maintain margins..result they have lost me as a client - my 7 overseas trips this year (given competition) means I have only had to spend 58% of my planned flight budget. All booked, done and dusted.
Still it doesn't have to be a world class company to make an investor a lot of money i.e xero being a classic example..made a lot of money off them even though they have severe limitations.
My husband and I have just come back from a trip to Australia where we flew Jetstar. He is one of the types who is very motivated by price and will fly with the cheapest airline. However our experience was so bad that he vowed never to fly Jetstar again. We took 3 flights in total which were all delayed, one by over 2 hours. He is also telling everyone about his bad experience and encouraging people to fly Air New Zealand. Having travelled extensively including many long haul flights we both agree that Air New Zealand is miles ahead of the pack and we have recently joined the airpoints program and will exclusively fly with them from now on.
Disc: Have previously owned AIR shares but sold in the recent highs. Considering a re-entry.
Jetstar is a loss leader for a reason... if you understand the strategic plan, the point was a clear example where price will convert kiwis even with an inferior network & product.
Yes I'm aware, I know about the Deloitte 200 awards and actually some of the past winners, they are competent. Now look at how many kiwis have made it overseas on boards and excelled. A very small group indeed. I work on a number of advisory boards in the US, and because of family... three boards in europe. It is such a small group we know each other..the group really is that small. I would like to think I'm competent as well haha however I can tell you I have worked with some exceptional directors overseas..they are on another level, opened my eyes to what is possible...now that is what I call world class. People like Chris Liddell are in demand back here for a reason. Not many in little old NZ from my experience.
That is cool. Mr. Luxon comments were not in my thinking, specifically their strategy at operating level of treating tiered status customers differently in flight, even on premium seats has rubbed a lot of people I know up the wrong way. I lot of people have switched flying to Europe as an example. My clients... I treat like a forum, when there is a common thread I take notice...
Beagle
16-02-2016, 03:07 PM
My husband and I have just come back from a trip to Australia where we flew Jetstar. He is one of the types who is very motivated by price and will fly with the cheapest airline. However our experience was so bad that he vowed never to fly Jetstar again. We took 3 flights in total which were all delayed, one by over 2 hours. He is also telling everyone about his bad experience and encouraging people to fly Air New Zealand. Having travelled extensively including many long haul flights we both agree that Air New Zealand is miles ahead of the pack and we have recently joined the airpoints program and will exclusively fly with them from now on.
Disc: Have previously owned AIR shares but sold in the recent highs. Considering a re-entry.
Thanks for sharing and welcome to the forum. You get what you pay for which with some of the low cost carriers isn't much.
My husband and I have just come back from a trip to Australia where we flew Jetstar. He is one of the types who is very motivated by price and will fly with the cheapest airline. However our experience was so bad that he vowed never to fly Jetstar again. We took 3 flights in total which were all delayed, one by over 2 hours. He is also telling everyone about his bad experience and encouraging people to fly Air New Zealand. Having travelled extensively including many long haul flights we both agree that Air New Zealand is miles ahead of the pack and we have recently joined the airpoints program and will exclusively fly with them from now on.
Disc: Have previously owned AIR shares but sold in the recent highs. Considering a re-entry.
I agree they appear bad, everyone moans yet they continue getting many people coming back. Not my airline, I have liked Air NZ... have thought the same to yourselves in the the past although i have discovered there are better inflight experiences to be had.
Disc. I'm holding and buying
Appologies for the off topic post but Skid can you tell how the cost savings versus hassle factor works out flying to an airport south of the border and renting a car for the final leg as an alternative to flying direct to Montreal by Maple Syrup Airlines and their protected market price gouging?
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Sorry MM--Dont know the answer to that--Shes flying AK-Vancouver and on to Montreal with the horrible air Canada(where a 6hr(approx) flight doesnt get you a meal--shessh!
But If you going through the states(god forbid) If some one is prepared to make the 6hr trip to New York to get you -you would probably save some dosh (kinds has to be a main connection point(NYC) and after a long flight that 6hr min drive would be a bit much.
Beagle
16-02-2016, 03:17 PM
That is cool. Mr. Luxon comments were not in my thinking, specifically their strategy at operating level of treating tiered status customers differently in flight, even on premium seats has rubbed a lot of people I know up the wrong way. I lot of people have switched flying to Europe as an example. My clients... I treat like a forum, when there is a common thread I take notice...
Thanks for your comments RAZ but as a shareholder its water off a ducks back as far as I'm concerned. Fact is demand and seat load factors YTD are very strong and there are literally millions of happy customers. Demand growth is significantly outstripping seat capacity growth despite the airline growing at a faster rate in FY16 than in their entire 75 year history and further, their RPK growth is double that of the average Asia pacific airlines so they're doing a heck of a lot of things right in the assessment of millions of their other customers. One of two anecdotal reports from you, me or anyone else, (no disrespect intended) mean very little in the face of these compelling YTD operating statistics.
Fact is load factors above 80% have been the norm for the last five years so I have every confidence that management and marketing team are a highly competent group of people and have proven themselves with very strong earnings growth in recent years. I think a lot sheets back to a great leader and Mr Luxon sets the tone and culture of the organisation right from the top.
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