AIR - Air NZ.

[Raz]

Government loves these special dividends - keeps them in surplus to the next election

Maybe $300m from Kiwibank and $200m from AIR would be enough (35 cents soec div)

When I saw the kiwibank play nudged me to believe air will now also provide a special dividend as well.

[sb9]

Good on ya guys those holding, hope it plays out well for yours sake.

[Nasi Goreng]

35c special divi. Tell him he's dreamin.

[winner69]

Vin, great day for AIR

Almost certain to go to a new record high (at least since they were bailed out) i reckon

Even cyclicals cycle upwards

[Beagle]

35c special divi. Tell him he's dreamin.

Maybe not. Based on current market value of $A0.3675 AIR's stake is valued at $A335.8m converts at .8972 = $374.27m Kiwi = 33.33 cps.

Singapore made an interesting move with a counter party in respect of some arrangement they had with them today and settled at just on 46 cps going off memory so there's potential for as much as $468m or about 42 cps.

On top of that I still have AIR earning 64 cps this year and they have only distributed 10 cps so far.

Further still, there's the possibility a deal would include the new shareholder taking over AIR's shareholder loan to VAH just made, another 13 cps.

[Nasi Goreng]

I'm not disputing the amount of available cash they may have on hand, it is a very interesting time.

If all goes well I don't see the bean counters giving it all back, it doesn't make business sense to me. A healthy divi.. Yes, 35c I would be surprised. Let's wait and see.

[Beagle]

Just a thought...Who's the major shareholder...you think their representative might have a chat with Tony Carter in due course...

[winner69]

Whoever (if it happens) acquires AIR share of Virgin will need to stump up ever more than before when the inevitable recapitalisation/refinancing of Virgin takes place (soon)

Assessing future commitments might put Singapore or Etiad off but then again it raises the possibility of a full takeover by either of them or some other keen watcher

[winner69]

Be interesting if the Singapore and/or Etiad man on the Boad don't get on well with Borghetti as well

Do Singapore and Etiad get along anyway?

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11618562

What's that old cliché...oh yes that's the one, Don't bite the hand that feeds you. I know it seems harsh but it sends an important signal that AIR will not be messed with in terms of former employees making baseless or vexatious claims. AIR seem pretty determined to clear out the non-performing dead wood don't they.

[brend]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11618764

Hoop going to cringe at this??

Or smart move by the broker to bait people into buying

[mikeybycrikey]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11618764

Hoop going to cringe at this??

Or smart move by the broker to bait people into buying

Have they changed that article? When I first read it a couple of hours ago, the article specifically referred to AIR as a "value trap". Now it just talks about low P/E and risk of intense competition.

[brend]

no i saw it at 5:00 am (baby wakes up). Content still the same.

[mikeybycrikey]

no i saw it at 5:00 am (baby wakes up). Content still the same.

I've found a printed version of the article. It says:


He warned however that investors needed to be wary of "value traps". With a price-to-earnings multiple of around 6 times, Williams said Air New Zealand, for example, was one of the cheapest stocks on the market. But he said there was risk of intense competition eroding the airline's earnings base.

The online version is now missing that first sentence of that paragraph, replacing it with just "Investors need to be wary, however." Not a big change to the article but I spent a while googling "value traps" so I was sure I had read it somewhere today.

[Beagle]

Not worried by that bloke. You think increasing competition isn't already factored into the super low PE...for goodness sake, (sarcasm intended) Long term average PE is about 11 and that's based on long term average interest rates. With interest rates headed to 100 year lows a PE of 12 is appropriate across the cycle so at the current price that implies long term average earnings of only 25 cps. Consensus analyst forecast is 55 cps this year and next falling to 42 cps in 2018. He's obviously in Warren Buffet's camp when it comes to airlines and that's fine that's his prerogative.

[couta1]

I'm fully convinced in my own mind that this is not a long term hold kinda stock at current prices, there's just too many factors that can step in at short notice and trash the share price (More than other stocks) Very little margin of safety unless your average buy price is below $2.80 and not a lot of upside with a $3.26 medium target (We won't mention the low target) PS-I learnt a lot of lessons whilst holding a large number of Air shares and left a lot of money on the table.

[Hoop]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11618764

Hoop going to cringe at this??

Or smart move by the broker to bait people into buying

Nope...no cringe...well done just a great example and timing of how to advertise your fund management business on the cheap..getting those timid customers back into the market and their exixting customers to load more into the funds during the "feel good" rally to new highs is the way to go to generate extra business.

The advertising bait used is usually cyclical type stocks because at the top of the boom cyclicals are raking in the money at obscene levels...To the inexperienced investor and to the Mum's and Dad investors seeing huge profits, high dividend yield and a very low PE Ratio's some as low as 3 who could blame them for assuming Mr Market has got these cyclical stock price value all wrong...

As with most media interview type advertising the business usually adds a typical advert disclaimer.. ".... maybe [Air New Zealand shares] are still cheap enough to invest in ... but we're cautious." ... Great stuff :cool:


Have they changed that article? When I first read it a couple of hours ago, the article specifically referred to AIR as a "value trap". Now it just talks about low P/E and risk of intense competition.

Only a wild guess from me..... maybe the media asked why AIR is so "cheap"... maybe he mentioned that Cyclicals are not necessarily a buy when PE Ratio get to very low levels..and then got asked to explain why ..The media then may have over-assumed Stuart Williams meaning, dramatised it and blew it out of proportion, then got asked to tone down the article......who knows..

What ever happened doesn't matter.... what matters now is that investors should is very careful with Cyclicals as they are volatile beasts especially when they are well away from their cyclic wave bottom point.

History shows to an layman investor what seems to be a paradox mirage....... that in realty, often the best time to buy cyclicals is when the PE Ratio is extremely high and the most dangerous time to buy into a cyclical stock is when the PE Ratio is extremely low, much lower than the overall market...

Disc: have no AIR

[winner69]

Good $3 holding up strongly today

Precursor to next week being a boomer

[Raz]

I'm fully convinced in my own mind that this is not a long term hold kinda stock at current prices, there's just too many factors that can step in at short notice and trash the share price (More than other stocks) Very little margin of safety unless your average buy price is below $2.80 and not a lot of upside with a $3.26 medium target (We won't mention the low target) PS-I learnt a lot of lessons whilst holding a large number of Air shares and left a lot of money on the table.

I agree, if you are confident trading then you can make a return, hard otherwise.

[vin]

No longer holding AIR, got out at $3.020. Sticking to game plan, will watch from sidelines for a while.

Kinda weird having held them for last 2 years, was my first purchase!

[skid]

Good $3 holding up strongly today

Precursor to next week being a boomer

Just for fun ,im going to take the contrarian view and say surly it will not hold the above $3 for long--(all it takes is one busy little Herald reporter to spoil the party)----this is absolutely not investment advice--just the Gut o meter.

PS-having said that--good luck to all holders--no sarcasm intended

[Beagle]

Big volume today, (about double the norm), augers well for what you've suggested skid.

[skid]

Big volume today, (about double the norm), augers well for what you've suggested skid.

We'll see whether my Gut o meter proves right or whether i should have consulted with my crystal balls:D

[winner69]

One way to get upgraded to first class

http://www.techinsider.io/passenger-death-airline-2016-4

[sharp]

Opinion piece. Interesting theory/read.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/aviation/singapore-airlines-could-buy-virgin-australia-to-block-chinese-20160408-go1xto.html

[Beagle]

Thanks sharp. Interesting to hear Mark Lister head of research at Criags talking on the NBR morning report saying most brokers DCF models have very little value ascribed to AIR's stake in VAH so a result anywhere near the current market price would provide a good boost. Speculation of this last week was what was behind the near 7% gain in SP.

Maybe $3 not so over-cooked after all, if they get a fair price. Disc Holding.

[winner69]

Opinion piece. Interesting theory/read.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/aviation/singapore-airlines-could-buy-virgin-australia-to-block-chinese-20160408-go1xto.html

What 'strategic value' in that - don't underestimate what AIR stake in VHA is worth

Even a punt on VHA could be rewarding at the mo.

[skid]

One way to get upgraded to first class

http://www.techinsider.io/passenger-death-airline-2016-4

Sometimes you can get an extra meal out of it as well,if you play your cards right.

[dobby41]

Sometimes you can get an extra meal out of it as well,if you play your cards right.

When you are dead do you care?

[skid]

When you are dead do you care?

You missed my dark humor--(you have to be the passenger sitting next to him...''here Ill just take that, he'll wake up soon''

(hope I hav'nt exceeded any boundaries here,but lets face it -it comes to us all sooner or later..somebody might as well get a free meal out of it)

[Beagle]

Opinion piece. Interesting theory/read.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/aviation/singapore-airlines-could-buy-virgin-australia-to-block-chinese-20160408-go1xto.html

Looks like a complete takeover can't be ruled out after all. Overseas division is losing $30m a year anyway...just jettison it and take on Qantas locally.
Rebrand it Singapore domestic and with their great reputation the kangaroo airline would have plenty to worry about.

[skid]

They will have lost that ''connection'' in OZ you were referring to earlier--although Singapore air would still keep it in the Star alliance so that would be best case scenario.

Meanwhile......does that count?????....Nah ,one morning under $3 doesnt qualify,but just goes to show (refer earlier post):)

[Zaphod]

Having a local *A domestic carrier in Australia would provide some further advantages for passenger, but the existing code-sharing agreement works well and provides most of the major benefits anyway IMO.

[winner69]

Jeez - these 'awards' from The Telegraph

Everybody wants to come to their favourite country New Zealand and AIRplanes are the 3rd best long haul in the world. What a combo

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/telegraph-travel-awards-2015-16-winners/

[macduffy]

Headline in today's AFR:

"Air NZ denies imminent sale of Virgin stake"

Article is behind the paywall, of course.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Headline in today's AFR:

"Air NZ denies imminent sale of Virgin stake"

Article is behind the paywall, of course.

Probably a re-hash of this from the Sydney Morning Herald;

http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/air-new-zealand-denies-virgin-australia-stake-sale-is-imminent-20160413-go504p.html

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Snow Leopard]

Tangential to doing checks on obscure airlines that actually fly to where I wish to go come June was the interesting discovery that customers rate

AirAsiaX (http://www.airlinequality.com/airline-reviews/airasia-x/)

higher than

Air New Zealand (http://www.airlinequality.com/airline-reviews/air-new-zealand/)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[garfy]

On that particular survey Garuda Indonesian, Qantas, and Virgin Australia were ahead of Air NZ...... go figure.

[Snow Leopard]

On that particular survey Garuda Indonesian, Qantas, and Virgin Australia were ahead of Air NZ...... go figure.

I have not flown with Qantas or Oz Virgin since 2010/11 so would not be fair to comment but I have flown enough flights with the modern Garuda Indonesia to confirm that they are excellent.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Probably a re-hash of this from the Sydney Morning Herald;

http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/air-new-zealand-denies-virgin-australia-stake-sale-is-imminent-20160413-go504p.html

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Thanks for the information. Where there's smoke there's fire...

[Joshuatree]

I have not flown with Qantas or Oz Virgin since 2010/11 so would not be fair to comment but I have flown enough flights with the modern Garuda Indonesia to confirm that they are excellent.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Garuda were excellent back in 1971/72 too when i dropped out of school and flew to Bali. Thanks for the trigger/ memory PT;)

[Jaa]

Tangential to doing checks on obscure airlines that actually fly to where I wish to go come June was the interesting discovery that customers rate

AirAsiaX (http://www.airlinequality.com/airline-reviews/airasia-x/)

higher than

Air New Zealand (http://www.airlinequality.com/airline-reviews/air-new-zealand/)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

You mean customers with lots of time to waste writing an online review of their first ever long haul flight?

*jumps tiger shark*

[dobby41]

You mean customers with lots of time to waste writing an online review of their first ever long haul flight?

While that may be true those customers with time to waste liked the other airlines better.

[Jantar]

While that may be true those customers with time to waste liked the other airlines better.
Or maybe had never flown on AIR to even compare them.

[Raz]

Interested to know where margins will be heading for AIR. Decided to take my daughter on a surprise trip to the US during her last school holidays, she has been working hard & she wants to checkout east coast schools. Noted Qantas is currently running a special economy fare which is around half the normal fare while crossing over part of the school holidays..so have a look at AIR site and see price matched on the same days. So paying $1100 economy return each to go in the school holidays while their regular airfares in the recent past have been commanding in the range 2100-2500$ return previously at this time. Don't see it having much effect on this financial year however next years?? The cash cow of AUC - LAX may well be gone.

[skid]

Or maybe had never flown on AIR to even compare them.

Id find it a bit hard to believe that AA would be better than AIR but I have flown with both MAL and AIR and despite all the bad things last year ,MAL was definitely better. (Thai was no contest)

to be fair the stewardesses were good on AIR ,it was more other areas of comfort--ie-- being cramped and for some reason we have found AIR way to cold (off the scale) Im wondering if it was just the plane itself which couldnt regulate the temp to keep everyone the same -(some may have been perfect in other areas)..but having said that ,a long haul flight is hard enough with out freezing,and possibly getting sick.
the wife will be returning from Vancouver the end of April--She froze on the way over,but we'll see how it goes on the way back to see if it was just a glitch.
we'll both be on MAL in late June so can compare--flew last year and it was good.

the daughter is flying to Bali with Jet star in Nov.(I imagine it will be a hard slog,but it was cheap and shes pretty tough)

[Jaa]

There is a dangerous trend in Wellington Airport's investor day presso (http://www.infratil.com/assets/imported/nzx/Wellington-Airport-IFT-Investor-Day-233604.pdf) for Air NZ (slides 8 and 9).

Over the last 5 years, there has been a growing trend in favour of long haul via Australia rather than via Auckland which is Air NZ's hub. In the last two years I guess almost inevitably this has lead to an increase in Qantas's group share of international flights out of Wellington to almost match Air NZ/Virgin's share.

When I lived in Wellington 6+ years ago, the appeal of flying international all the way, the wider options and cheaper prices did make hubbing via Australia more appealing than Auckland.

[Jaa]

Or maybe had never flown on AIR to even compare them.

Exactly. Low cost airline customers are normally not very experienced or discerning travelers and just happy to be flying.

The quality difference between Air Asia/Scoot/Cebu Pacific/Jetstar and say Air NZ/Sing Air/Qantas long haul is huge and you pay hundreds of dollars for it. I have flown all of them in the last year or so.

Horses for courses but I would much rather invest in an airline like Air NZ without a budget arm. You can always discount your seats to fill the plane but the budget carriers are stuck. Qantas's strategy of having a separate budget arm adds layers of costs throughout the company and has more to do with high unionised labour costs.

[Kelvin]

There is a dangerous trend in Wellington Airport's investor day presso (http://www.infratil.com/assets/imported/nzx/Wellington-Airport-IFT-Investor-Day-233604.pdf) for Air NZ (slides 8 and 9).

Over the last 5 years, there has been a growing trend in favour of long haul via Australia rather than via Auckland which is Air NZ's hub. In the last two years I guess almost inevitably this has lead to an increase in Qantas's group share of international flights out of Wellington to almost match Air NZ/Virgin's share.

When I lived in Wellington 6+ years ago, the appeal of flying international all the way, the wider options and cheaper prices did make hubbing via Australia more appealing than Auckland.

The main reason for that trend would be Air NZ/Virgin keeping roughly the same number of flights, while Qantas/Jetstar adding Gold Coast, Melbourne, and seasonal Brisbane flights.

[Beagle]

Senior exec's keep exercising options and cashing in and selling the shares. Very tough for the SP to track north when they keep over-supplying the market with shares.

[emveha]

There is a dangerous trend in Wellington Airport's investor day presso (http://www.infratil.com/assets/imported/nzx/Wellington-Airport-IFT-Investor-Day-233604.pdf) for Air NZ (slides 8 and 9).

Over the last 5 years, there has been a growing trend in favour of long haul via Australia rather than via Auckland which is Air NZ's hub. In the last two years I guess almost inevitably this has lead to an increase in Qantas's group share of international flights out of Wellington to almost match Air NZ/Virgin's share.

When I lived in Wellington 6+ years ago, the appeal of flying international all the way, the wider options and cheaper prices did make hubbing via Australia more appealing than Auckland.

Not to mention Singapore in a more and more likely future. Air NZ's protest that no international airline could profitably operate from Wellington was a bit too vehement to be entirely believable.

[IAK]

Interesting story on Alan Joyce - King of the Quantas comeback. Bit of competition for CL. http://nzh.tw/11622517

[Snow Leopard]

Senior exec's keep exercising options and cashing in and selling the shares. Very tough for the SP to track north when they keep over-supplying the market with shares.

You would hope that they had sufficient confidence in the future to at least keep some of them!

Surely they are not all building new decks?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Feeling less grumpy this morning after reading that Joyce is on $12m. One supposes that we need to pay market rates to attract and keep the best talent including share incentive schemes but in my opinion there are too many LTI scheme options out there, about 45m as at 30 June 2015, which represents a whopping 8% of the free float of AIR's shares, excl Govt stake.

[dobby41]

What do you really have to do to earn $12m?
Perverse!

[winner69]

The $3 holding at weeks end

Looks good for next week

[skid]

The $3 holding at weeks end

Looks good for next week

See,just like you predicted ...it got to $3...:)

[winner69]

Airlines are proving once again that they are in a commodities business - same product, same input costs, same planes and little differentiation.

The cheap fuel of late has lead to increased capacity, probably beyond demand.

Put all this together the intense competition results in tumbling airfares. Herald reports us$100 odd AA special LA / AKL and stuff says Singapore adding more flights to CHCH.

I reckon boom profits this year for the likes of AIR (maybe a bit lower than forecast) but then heading back to where airlines usually are - not that profitable

AIR at $3 today - maybe as high as it will go

Hoop possibly is right in saying airlines are notoriously cyclical - mostly of their own making

Is now the top of this current cycle?

[Raz]

Airlines are proving once again that they are in a commodities business - same product, same input costs, same planes and little differentiation.

The cheap fuel of late has lead to increased capacity, probably beyond demand.

Put all this together the intense competition results in tumbling airfares. Herald reports us$100 odd AA special LA / AKL and stuff says Singapore adding more flights to CHCH.

I reckon boom profits this year for the likes of AIR (maybe a bit lower than forecast) but then heading back to where airlines usually are - not that profitable

AIR at $3 today - maybe as high as it will go

Hoop possibly is right in saying airlines are notoriously cyclical - mostly of their own making

Is now the top of this current cycle?

That is my thinking, possibly touch more on the share price although with the executives cashing in well..

[Beagle]

AIR are getting their fair share of inbound and outbound growth and enjoying the domestic growth that flows from same.

[couta1]

Airlines are proving once again that they are in a commodities business - same product, same input costs, same planes and little differentiation.

The cheap fuel of late has lead to increased capacity, probably beyond demand.

Put all this together the intense competition results in tumbling airfares. Herald reports us$100 odd AA special LA / AKL and stuff says Singapore adding more flights to CHCH.

I reckon boom profits this year for the likes of AIR (maybe a bit lower than forecast) but then heading back to where airlines usually are - not that profitable

AIR at $3 today - maybe as high as it will go

Hoop possibly is right in saying airlines are notoriously cyclical - mostly of their own making

Is now the top of this current cycle? Definitely not a long term hold for me again at current prices, upside potential with increasing competition is quite limited IMO, price currently in no man's land so no good for traders either, really just a divvy play I guess until something sends the SP downwards again, which of course could happen at any time.:cool:

[tim23]

I would have thought excellent for traders the SP has been all over the place, bit like Sky TV.
Definitely not a long term hold for me again at current prices, upside potential with increasing competition is quite limited IMO, price currently in no man's land so no good for traders either, really just a divvy play I guess until something sends the SP downwards again, which of course could happen at any time.:cool:

[Beagle]

Definitely not a long term hold for me again at current prices, upside potential with increasing competition is quite limited IMO, price currently in no man's land so no good for traders either, really just a divvy play I guess until something sends the SP downwards again, which of course could happen at any time.:cool:

Or... they could announce a successful sale of VAH, a special divvy and buy-back and the price could head north. Flip a coin ?

[couta1]

I would have thought excellent for traders the SP has been all over the place, bit like Sky TV. Not of late, Air weekly trading range $2.97-$3.05 (Tiny number of shares available between $2.97-$3.00) so narrow range compared to SKT weekly range of $4.55-$4.97.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Crikey some Aussie is pointing the bones at airline shares as an investment especially Queer and Nasty Airlines.

http://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/finance-own-airline-shares-sell-them-tips-motley-fool-investment-advisor-20160408-go1fug.html

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[skid]

Or... they could announce a successful sale of VAH, a special divvy and buy-back and the price could head north. Flip a coin ?

I think (in terms of cyclical s) that airlines and tourism (especially here, have hit a ''sweet spot'' and I think the realistic money would be hoping it lasts,rather than expecting it to rocket)

Those holding would want to ride it out for as long as it lasts --but buying in is far more of a risk IMO---to gain alot from this point is asking alot and I get the feeling that covering ground on the profit side is getting on the longer odds side of things when compared with possible downside--Its been a long term gain (7 years) for almost all markets and NZX seems to be riding the peak----Even healthy markets need a reality check once in a while.--The exception would be if more foreign buyers are lining up for a piece of NZ action,but in saying that,that foreign money can go at the blink of an eye ,to safer havens if need be.

That VAH possible sale is one wild card that could help though Roger--good point...It will be interesting to see if it becomes a tussle between Singapore and China..or nothing.

[winner69]

March operating stats out this week

Will still be showing huge growth in pkms (or whatever) and surprisingly high yields

[Sideshow Bob]

Just back from HK - premium economy and business were both chokka both ways, and economy pretty full.

[Beagle]

Crikey some Aussie is pointing the bones at airline shares as an investment especially Queer and Nasty Airlines.

http://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/finance-own-airline-shares-sell-them-tips-motley-fool-investment-advisor-20160408-go1fug.html

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Fully reflected in the current PE of only 5 IMHO. Maybe the article is misdirected ? Take Auckland International Airport for example, still subject to the cyclical nature of the tourism industry but trading on a PE of 30, six times the PE ratio of AIR....Hmmm.

[Fox]

Take Auckland International Airport for example, still subject to the cyclical nature of the tourism industry but trading on a PE of 30, six times the PE ratio of AIR....Hmmm.

A portion of that PE variance is probably due to the airport benefiting from increased competition between AIR's rivals, also its monopolistic nature, but a PE of 30 is :eek2:

[mondograss]

You have to bear in mind though that AIA is as much a property company as anything else, given all the development they do on their land surrounding the airport.

[sb9]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11624377

Interesting...

[Beagle]

Sydney Morning Herald's article
http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/air-new-zealand-sale-could-mean-big-payday-for-virgin-australias-john-borghetti-20160415-go7aqu.html

[mikeybycrikey]

The more that I hear about this Virgin sale process, the more I wonder if it was just a decision made in haste by AIR because Luxon could no longer work with Borghetti.

This announcement to "explore options" was made three weeks ago. To me it seems that there are surely a pretty short list of options for AIR: sell quickly or sell slowly. I think I would've expected to hear some progress by now. Something doesn't quite smell right about this to me.

I also wonder about the articles from today about Luxon failing to roll Borghetti. Is this a controlled leak from VAH or AIR? Doesn't feel like it would be because it doesn't seem to benefit either side. If not a controlled leak, where did it come from?

[Beagle]

One of the worst kept secrets in aviation down under is that Air has been unhappy with VAH's turnaround progress for quite some time now. There's bound to have already been a lot of friction at board level and specifically between Mr Borghetti and Mr Luxon. Sure things could have blown up at the board meeting and C.L. could have resigned on the spot after failing to get the support of other shareholders, (in fact I'd put money on that) but its been coming for a long time. I think its clear the AIR board see Mr Borghetti as a 60 year old "cruiser" and is simply not doing the business in terms of generating an acceptable return on capital. If the other shareholders won't back AIR for a change then they're doing the right thing putting their shareholding under review. These things always take longer then you think, regulatory approval, pre-emptive rights, code share arrangements and so on. If they managed to execute a clean deal before balance date (30 June 2016) at or about current market price I'd see that as a good result. A nice clean unimpeded flight path is a beautiful thing. Happy to hold and happy with the direction the board are headed with this.

[winner69]

Roger said 'I think its clear the AIR board see Mr Borghetti as a 60 year old "cruiser"'

Cmon mate - no room for ageism on this site

Maybe about time Air NZ had a female CEO to keep these guys playing games big boys with egos (halos) play

[Beagle]

I'm a 54 year old cruiser :D

[winner69]

I'm a 54 year old cruiser :D

..........and aiming to get a real cruiser to sail the Pacific - or at least Hauraki

[winner69]

Not so good across the Tasman

Business Spectator -
Worries about the upcoming federal election and dwindling consumer confidence have pushed Qantas to slash its expectations for capacity growth as the end of the financial year arrives.

The airline on Monday said its domestic capacity growth over the last three months of the 2016 financial year will now be negative compared to the same time last year.


JUST AS WELL NZ DOMESTIC ECONOMY BOOMING

[winner69]

Jeez QAN down 10% already today

Hope Chris ne'er mutters those fatal words 'things are slowing'

[sb9]

Jeez QAN done 10% already today

Hope Chris ne'er mutters those fatal words 'things are slowing'

Make that 12% down winner, things are slowing for sure....

[winner69]

Make that 12% down winner, things are slowing for sure....

That's what can happen to cyclicals eh

[boysy]

Still falling in Australia down 13% to 3.53

[sb9]

That's what can happen to cyclicals eh

Well, at least QAN got buy back in place currently...

[Beagle]

QAN still planning on overall growth next year and this is just tweaking of Q4's scheduling. Market over-reacting. AIR's March operating stat's should be out in the next few days and will give some more insight as to how they're tracking. QAN removing some domestic capacity could be good for VAH.

[workingdad]

I am thinking about grabbing a few thinking there could be a rebound fairly promptly but in two minds, with OPEC not going well over the weekend what if any will the impact be on the US and could it carry onto NZ including AIR

[stoploss]

I am thinking about grabbing a few thinking there could be a rebound fairly promptly but in two minds, with OPEC not going well over the weekend what if any will the impact be on the US and could it carry onto NZ including AIR

Lower fuel prices helps air nz .......

[Nasi Goreng]

Well I just bailed with a bruise or two but without losing my shirt. Was waiting to see if it could get back to 2.95 by close but now I highly doubt it. Will be interesting to see how it goes over the next day, either way I'm ok with it.

[couta1]

Well I just bailed with a bruise or two but without losing my shirt. Was waiting to see if it could get back to 2.95 by close but now I highly doubt it. Will be interesting to see how it goes over the next day, either way I'm ok with it. Opposite to me Mate, I'm in for a punt, go on workingdad you know you want to.

[Nasi Goreng]

Maybe you bought mine... Anyway, good luck :)

[sb9]

I'm afraid not laying my hands on this one for now, the way I see it has bit more room to fall I think...

[couta1]

I'm afraid not laying my hands on this one for now, the way I see it has bit more room to fall I think... Maybe or could just be a knee jerk reaction, I'm okay with it as I've never lost money on this share to date.

[sb9]

Maybe or could just be a knee jerk reaction, I'm okay with it as I've never lost money on this share to date.

Hope so for your sake couta, good luck anyway.

[Beagle]

:sleep: Doing my best to sleep my way through this latest bout of turbulence :sleep:

[mikeybycrikey]

We might know a bit more in a day or two when AIR releases their monthly stats.

[workingdad]

Opposite to me Mate, I'm in for a punt, go on workingdad you know you want to.

Its close but a work situation just diverted my attention so it may just have to wait - at least I get the benefit of seeing what happens overnight..... or perhaps miss the boat if it jumps back first thing :mellow:

[couta1]

:sleep: Doing my best to sleep my way through this latest bout of turbulence :sleep: Come on Mate, it's good to see a bit more range in the SP again, pretty boring without turbulence.:cool:

[couta1]

Its close but a work situation just diverted my attention so it may just have to wait - at least I get the benefit of seeing what happens overnight..... or perhaps miss the boat if it jumps back first thing :mellow: With the smart phone in pocket work very rarely diverts me from the market but tomorrow I'm going fishing for the first time in quite a while and spot X has absolutely no mobile coverage whatsoever(Hope it's not a day of widespread carnage on the market)

[Beagle]

Come on Mate, it's good to see a bit more range in the SP again, pretty boring without turbulence.:cool:

No good for my blood pressure mate, I'm a nervous flyer. Another sudden 10 cent fall in altitude might see the Scotsman in me come out though :cool:

[couta1]

No good for my blood pressure mate, I'm a nervous flyer. Another sudden 10 cent fall in altitude might see the Scotsman in me come out though :cool: With high blood pressure this ain't the share for you, I prescribe you sell all your Air shares and buy Ryman.:cool:

[skid]

My 2c---just wait to make sure the oil thing doesnt reek havoc (catalyst)on the US market.
The fact that cheap oil is good for AIR gets trumped by a market fall.

If its a storm in a tea cup you can then buy---Just looking at things atm,somehow it seems not as likely for a big jump as in other situations. (so far the Asian markets are all down) lets see how Europe and US do.

[workingdad]

With the smart phone in pocket work very rarely diverts me from the market but tomorrow I'm going fishing for the first time in quite a while and spot X has absolutely no mobile coverage whatsoever(Hope it's not a day of widespread carnage on the market)

Spot X sounds ideal :) I had some great luck in coromandel over easter.

What are the chances of that happening.... :scared: Perhaps the distraction of the big moochers will be enough to help avoid pulling anchor and heading to a reception area for a quick look on the sly haha.

I don't do much work at present but had a situation that needed my attention, just finished now and see it lost another 2c . Will look at buying back in tomorrow with the benefit of seeing how the US goes overnight. I am not keen to get caught up in a long term position but wonder if AIR still has some good news to warrant a higher SP than $2.86 and potential for a quick turnaround.

[Baa_Baa]

My 2c---just wait to make sure the oil thing doesnt reek havoc (catalyst)on the US market.
The fact that cheap oil is good for AIR gets trumped by a market fall.

If its a storm in a tea cup you can then buy---Just looking at things atm,somehow it seems not as likely for a big jump as in other situations. (so far the Asian markets are all down) lets see how Europe and US do.

Don't read too much into the "AIR trumped by market fall", the Crude futures gapped down on the OPEC debacle but rose all day during the NZX open, so maybe fair enough AIR got nailed as sentiment suggested Oil will shrug it off and continue upward. Actually, who knows really, but AIR got a good beating.

[Beagle]

With high blood pressure this ain't the share for you, I prescribe you sell all your Air shares and buy Ryman.:cool:

Aviation has always interested me, should have been a pilot but didn't have good enough eyesight. Bit like a moth drawn to the light I have to have some financial interest in this exciting and dynamic industry but recently Hoop's prolific warnings on cyclical stocks have me taking a more circumspect approach, (read less likely to get sucked into a jet intake and chewed up). Like many things, I think a balanced approach is best. Predicting the future is bloody hard work especially when it comes to AIR's SP movements.

[couta1]

Id be selling right about now if I was holding, your table can be cleared quickly with this stock and you may be left holding just your cutlery, speaking from experience of course.:cool: This post from the 7/4/16 was in response to people getting excited about the SP hitting $3 again.Lesson-When this stock offers you a meal,eat it quickly or you'll go hungry.:cool:

[Beagle]

This post from the 7/4/16 was in response to people getting excited about the SP hitting $3 again.Lesson-When this stock offers you a meal,eat it quickly or you'll go hungry.:cool:

Good post mate. Enjoy the fishing :)

[janner]

Predicting the future is bloody hard work especially when it comes to AIR's SP movements.

So Roger . Having been a disciple on it's way up.

Where are you today ???

Buy. Sell. or Hold ???..


Disc. Never held.

[Beagle]

Been paying a lot of brokerage janner, LOL.

Sold out from an overweight position and took good profits' when AIR advanced VAH the loan when SP in the mid $2.80's. Held on too a few for interest.
Bought back about half of shares sold when AIR announced they wanted to sell VAH itself, a week or so later, AIR's flip-flop, not mine, (this transaction was broadly price neutral to the earlier sale but copped a small hit with brokerage each way) so got myself nicely balanced at around $2.85 (circa 9% portfolio allocation). Felt happy there.

Then it raced up a bit to $3.03 or thereabouts on speculation of a quick sale of VAH and I had a little snack selling one third of my balanced position to be slightly underweight which is where I am today, holding about 6% of my investment portfolio.

I think its a hold at this level but would look to add some weight if it falls back a bit more, say to $2.75. On the other hand if the March operating stat's due out in the next few days are highly satisfactory I might take a view that anywhere in the low- mid $2.80's is good to go back to a balanced position. As others have suggested and I tend to agree, you need to work the swings a bit with this one to try and get a satisfactory return...but its hard work. Consensus broker valuation is still $3.26.

[janner]

Been paying a lot of brokerage janner, LOL.

Sold out from an overweight position and took good profits' when AIR advanced VAH the loan when SP in the mid $2.80's. Held on too a few for interest.
Bought back about half of shares sold when AIR announced they wanted to sell VAH itself, a week or so later, AIR's flip-flop, not mine, (this transaction was broadly price neutral to the earlier sale but copped a small hit with brokerage each way) so got myself nicely balanced at around $2.85 (circa 9% portfolio allocation). Felt happy there.

Then it raced up a bit to $3.03 or thereabouts on speculation of a quick sale of VAH and I had a little snack selling one third of my balanced position to be slightly underweight which is where I am today, holding about 6% of my investment portfolio.

I think its a hold at this level but would look to add some weight if it falls back a bit more, say to $2.75. On the other hand if the March operating stat's due out in the next few days are highly satisfactory I might take a view that anywhere in the low- mid $2.80's is good to go back to a balanced position. As others have suggested and I tend to agree, you need to work the swings a bit with this one to try and get a satisfactory return...but its hard work. Consensus broker valuation is still $3.26.

Thank you for the break down Roger..

I am sure that many here would also have appreciated it..

Disc. Still not a holder.

[kelfy]

I sold all my share at $3. Can't wait to see below $2.8 :)

[skid]

Been paying a lot of brokerage janner, LOL.

Sold out from an overweight position and took good profits' when AIR advanced VAH the loan when SP in the mid $2.80's. Held on too a few for interest.
Bought back about half of shares sold when AIR announced they wanted to sell VAH itself, a week or so later, AIR's flip-flop, not mine, (this transaction was broadly price neutral to the earlier sale but copped a small hit with brokerage each way) so got myself nicely balanced at around $2.85 (circa 9% portfolio allocation). Felt happy there.

Then it raced up a bit to $3.03 or thereabouts on speculation of a quick sale of VAH and I had a little snack selling one third of my balanced position to be slightly underweight which is where I am today, holding about 6% of my investment portfolio.

I think its a hold at this level but would look to add some weight if it falls back a bit more, say to $2.75. On the other hand if the March operating stat's due out in the next few days are highly satisfactory I might take a view that anywhere in the low- mid $2.80's is good to go back to a balanced position. As others have suggested and I tend to agree, you need to work the swings a bit with this one to try and get a satisfactory return...but its hard work. Consensus broker valuation is still $3.26.

Good on ya Roger. You are interested enough to do heaps of research ,but realistic enough to not fall into the trap of becoming the ''spokesman'' and holding at all costs.
I think you (and coutts)have become much wiser of late,..at least Imo.

The Dow shrugged off the oil news (although $39 barrel still seems pretty good to me) especially when we were looking at far less not to long ago. It certainly takes alot to beat those American investors into submission.
So no rout today,so that can be ticked off.

[RTM]

Hi ya Roger, yes, I have enjoyed your analysis of AIR over the months (thank you) although I was somewhat surprised at lack of faith in AIR NZ management a short while back. I would think they operate with a lot more information than what we have and so I'm trusting them to make the right decisions. So I have held my AIR shares throughout and hope to enjoy solid dividends for many years to come. About 7% of my portfolio, cost 244. Don't want a much higher % than that.
Cheers, RTM.
PS As an aside....wouldn't want to be retiring at the moment and looking for income. The market in general seems quite expensive and return on money in the bank not the best.

[Hoop]

Joshuatree ...some of your mentioned airlines are here...
The chart below is the "so-called";) Global Airline index.....the perception of falling oil prices being a positive effect on Airline share prices is not noticeable here....in fact the bull cycle is looking suspect.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Airline%20index_1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/Airline%20index_1.png.html)

Update:
"Global" airline index (sucker?) rally is going gangbusters...Since the last post the index is now considered officially a Bear Market Cycle (>20%)..It has its nose above the previous high bull/bear resistance breakout which is the first confirmation step towards a new Bull Cycle...still along way to go to become a Bull (has to create a record high)...

This rally is suddenly going against the QAN and AIR price drop....Maybe QAN still has underlying issues and AIR is unfairly smeared with the same brush...time will tell

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Airline%20index%2018042016.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/Airline%20index%2018042016.png.html)

[Hoop]

The chart shows no Technical damage from yesterday's QAN's sudden fallout..(typical cyclical stock behavioural signature)

The ascending triangle is squeezing the price range tighter and tighter making any trading range swing trading unattractive so these players should be absent..Even though the ascending Triangle pattern has a bullish bias, there are bear trend tendencies emerging typical with prices when they fall back to test the bottom line on the pattern...
AIR is showing a longer term low volatile sideways activity, this cyclical behaviour is not all that common....
As always...buy/accumulate at support...sell/hold near resistances

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/AIR18042016.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/AIR18042016.png.html)

[Beagle]

Hi ya Roger, yes, I have enjoyed your analysis of AIR over the months (thank you) although I was somewhat surprised at lack of faith in AIR NZ management a short while back. I would think they operate with a lot more information than what we have and so I'm trusting them to make the right decisions. So I have held my AIR shares throughout and hope to enjoy solid dividends for many years to come. About 7% of my portfolio, cost 244. Don't want a much higher % than that.
Cheers, RTM.
PS As an aside....wouldn't want to be retiring at the moment and looking for income. The market in general seems quite expensive and return on money in the bank not the best.

I was heavily over-weight at one point to be fair. Perhaps its time to have a look at AIR from an income perspective...
You raise an interesting point about retirement income as a good friend of mine is holding quite a few of the AIR bonds which mature in November 2016, paying 6.9%. These currently trade at circa 4% so he could sell and take a capital profit on them effective price is about $1.045 per bond at present. He just retired so will be looking for income.

According to consensus forecast fully imputed dividends due over the next three years are as follows 22.8 cps, 23.9 cps and 20.8 cps, lets just average them and ignore the prospect of special dividends at this stage. Three year average is 22.5 cps.

In their most recent conference call AIR management talked about the tremendous potential for free cash flow generation later this decade as they finish their modernisation programme. Yes airlines are cyclical I will concede but so are a lot of other companies but as they're going to be making somewhere in the order of 60 cps at present I think taking into account AIR's comments during the recent conference call its not an unreasonable assumption to make the call that 22.5 cps may be sustainable going forward. AIR have plenty of imputation credits available so their dividends are 22.5 / 0.72 = 31.25 cps gross = 10.78% based on a SP of $2.90.

On top of that I think there's plenty of potential for a special divvy. Although my friend doesn't like airline shares maybe he's better taking on board some risk now rather than hoping he can find another suitable investment opportunity when his bonds mature in Nov 2016.

[RTM]

Wow....is it possibly as much as that ? Would be great ! I must admit I do not yet understand the imputation piece, except that it is favourable. You prompted me to have a look at my stocks...wet day so playing in the puter..... Yes....your friend will probably have to get used to some risk. I dumped out my stocks to a spreadsheet and here are the top yielders by dividend using the current price. CEN 15% PGW 9 GNE 8 NZR 8 ANZ (very sad) 7 MEL 7 AIR 7 HBL 7. A selection something like this might be OK for your friend ? I have AIG coming due as well.....7.5% to be replaced.
Probably off topic. Sorry all.

[Beagle]

In its simplest form imputation RTM is simply the attachment to a dividend of your share of the tax the company has paid. Happy to explain in more detail by PM to save bogging down the thread if you'd like.

Yeap that's where I see AIR's dividends and I think they're sustainable on average across the business cycle. Risk is too the upside with special dividend(s) over the years ahead. AIR will have a very young average fleet age by the end of Fy19 so the prospects for that dividend being sustainable are very good.

[tim23]

Think the CEN is wrong - think it takes into account the special, usually pay x 2 11c so about 4% net yield.
Wow....is it possibly as much as that ? Would be great ! I must admit I do not yet understand the imputation piece, except that it is favourable. You prompted me to have a look at my stocks...wet day so playing in the puter..... Yes....your friend will probably have to get used to some risk. I dumped out my stocks to a spreadsheet and here are the top yielders by dividend using the current price. CEN 15% PGW 9 GNE 8 NZR 8 ANZ (very sad) 7 MEL 7 AIR 7 HBL 7. A selection something like this might be OK for your friend ? I have AIG coming due as well.....7.5% to be replaced.
Probably off topic. Sorry all.

[Regi]

I sold all my share at $3. Can't wait to see below $2.8 :) $3.03 here, timed well for once. And likewise, will jump back in when it lowers.

[RTM]

Think the CEN is wrong - think it takes into account the special, usually pay x 2 11c so about 4% net yield.

Agreed. Thanks.

[BC_Doc]

Pretty hot competition for NZ domestic flights. Just secured 6 air NZ flights AUK-WEL return for $39 each

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/79101489/air-new-zealand-changes-wellington-to-new-plymouth-schedule

[Zaphod]

Pretty hot competition for NZ domestic flights. Just secured 6 air NZ flights AUK-WEL return for $39 each

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/79101489/air-new-zealand-changes-wellington-to-new-plymouth-schedule

The key issue appears to be aircraft utilisation subsequent to providing the NPL/WLG sectors, due to intense competition on the AKL sector by Jetstar. The way the article is written makes it seem as though those wishing to travel between WLG and NPL may have to transit in AKL now, but that's not the case.

Still, it's interesting to see what effect Jetstar are having on domestic services and the effects on sectors not yet directly served by them.

[BC_Doc]

The key issue appears to be aircraft utilisation subsequent to providing the NPL/WLG sectors, due to intense competition on the AKL sector by Jetstar. The way the article is written makes it seem as though those wishing to travel between WLG and NPL may have to transit in AKL now, but that's not the case.

Still, it's interesting to see what effect Jetstar are having on domestic services and the effects on sectors not yet directly served by them.

Definately will be interesting to see. Will also be interesting to look at the cost comparison between WLG-NPL direct by air NZ and the WLG-ALK-NPL route operated by Jetstar. I guess this particular example route was used to illustrate the dynamic domestic market evolving before our eyes in response to increased competition. How the market responds to these headwinds (whether just perceived or in reality)? cant say for sure... Judging by the reaction to Qantas's latest news...... Could be quite 'reactive'......

[Beagle]

If you read back in the thread you'll see that I've been calling the relative SP's of QAN and AIR being so disjointed as being quite strange. Based on fundamentals (EPS, growth and outlook) I've made the case that they're worth about the same, if anything AIR is probably worth a little bit more because its growing faster. QAN's SP fall is as much about some reality coming back into the SP as anything else IMO.

Australian analysts are way too bullish on QAN's prospects and N.Z. analysts too bearish. Definitely more competition and fares are cheaper but fuel prices are still dirt cheap by historical standards and the current PE of less than 5 already more than adequately factors in the looming headwinds. Happy to hold for the big dividends in the years ahead.

[workingdad]

Spot X sounds ideal :) I had some great luck in coromandel over easter.

What are the chances of that happening.... :scared: Perhaps the distraction of the big moochers will be enough to help avoid pulling anchor and heading to a reception area for a quick look on the sly haha.

I don't do much work at present but had a situation that needed my attention, just finished now and see it lost another 2c . Will look at buying back in tomorrow with the benefit of seeing how the US goes overnight. I am not keen to get caught up in a long term position but wonder if AIR still has some good news to warrant a higher SP than $2.86 and potential for a quick turnaround.

Looks like I missed the boat, but the buy order in but it never quite got there and then climbing ever since.... oh well, will keep an eye on it for another opportunity down the line.

[winner69]

Pretty robust numbers in the monthly report

Things still on track i reckon

[Beagle]

Good solid stat's there, load factors about average, expansion of RPK's in line with the rate of robust tourism growth...AIR getting its "fare" share of the strong inbound and outbound tourism growth and yields holding up well considering the dirt cheap cost of oil. As you say Winner, business as usual. Most brokers have their stake in VAH as worth next nothing in their DCF models which average $3.26 so I'd expect a good jump if a sale is announced at market price or above, especially if such announcement comes in tandem with news of a special dividend / share buy-back or both.

BUT... then there's this https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/281175
More decks being built by AIR senior management...as if there core salaries aren't already very rewarding...

[mikeybycrikey]

BUT... then there's this https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/281175
More decks being built by AIR senior management...as if there core salaries aren't already very rewarding...

These announcements don't really ring any alarm bells for me at all. Usually with an option scheme, the recipient would sell a number of the shares to pay for exercising the options, although they are seliing a little more than that.

I had not read up about the long and short term incentive programs until now. Options don't seem to be part of the package any longer, having been replaced by "performance rights", which are based on the share price beating a 50:50 index of NZX ALL Gross and Bloomberg world airline index. Should be easy enough to beat that index in a good year though (should possibly be higher of NZX and Airline index rather than 50:50 weighting)

Seems interesting that the CEO needs to keep a shareholding equal to 55% of his base salary with other senior execs needing to hold between 40% and 20% of salary depending on seniority.

[skid]

Good solid stat's there, load factors about average, expansion of RPK's in line with the rate of robust tourism growth...AIR getting its "fare" share of the strong inbound and outbound tourism growth and yields holding up well considering the dirt cheap cost of oil. As you say Winner, business as usual. Most brokers have their stake in VAH as worth next nothing in their DCF models which average $3.26 so I'd expect a good jump if a sale is announced at market price or above, especially if such announcement comes in tandem with news of a special dividend / share buy-back or both.

BUT... then there's this https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/281175
More decks being built by AIR senior management...as if there core salaries aren't already very rewarding...

And will read back you will see skids ''gutometer'' was spot on--dont be sidetracked by facts and figures...but wait theres more...:):)

[Anna Naum]

Winner, time to get the glasses out. Yield was terrible, sure in part maybe due to World Cup (Cricket) last year but either way SP is heading South.

This game is over, the plane (train) has left the station.


Pretty robust numbers in the monthly report

Things still on track i reckon

[couta1]

Reading the stats, load factors down across the board and group wide yields down 5.3%, competition is definitely starting to have an effect. Looks like the cycle has past its peak and we know what that means don't we, still good as a long term divvy hold if you bought in at a good price though.

[winner69]

Good grief - 10000 Amway reps coming fom China to Queenstown

Air NZ involved in making this happen according to man on radio

Wow

[workingdad]

Good grief - 10000 Amway reps coming fom China to Queenstown

Air NZ involved in making this happen according to man on radio

Wow

I am guessing it is march -may next year? Article says this will happen in autumn.

[pierre]

I am guessing it is march -may next year? Article says this will happen in autumn.

Autumn 2018 - two years away. Great achievement though.

[workingdad]

Autumn 2018 - two years away. Great achievement though.

Thanks

Be great for the economy in general alright.

[winner69]

Autumn 2018 - two years away. Great achievement though.

Markets are forward looking

[Beagle]

Reading the stats, load factors down across the board and group wide yields down 5.3%, competition is definitely starting to have an effect. Looks like the cycle has past its peak and we know what that means don't we, still good as a long term divvy hold if you bought in at a good price though.

Yield was down 1.2% in $N.Z which is the currency they report in. Load factors at 84.5% are strong and running year to date at almost bang on last year's average.

I think yields are also holding up very well keeping in mind fuel is dirt cheap. John Key talking about one million Chinese tourists coming to N.Z. within 5 years, up from 300,000 now. Huge growth coming for other countries too, extra flights to Houston this coming summer to cope with demand, new routes, annualisation of previous routes started part way through the year e.t.c. The PE is under 5 so in my view all known and perceived competition threats are more than adequately priced in.

Yield based on current price is north of 10% and its sustainable for the foreseeable future, see post #5625

Sometimes I find it helpful rather than looking at a single month's operating stat's to zoom out and have a look at the bigger picture and here's what that looks like from a passenger load perspective
Average group wide load factor year to date 84.5%, (same as for the month of March itself). How does this compare to previous total group wide average load factors ?

Total Group load factor in:-

FY15 84.1%
FY14 84.1% (That's not a typo they were the same)
FY13 83.6%
FY12 82.8%
FY11 83.4%
FY10 81.8%

I see nothing to worry about. Business as usual and AIR on track to make a record profit before tax of circa $900 - $1,000 million. AIR management are doing a superb job of matching strongly growing demand with capacity and should be commended for how resilient the business is proving to be in slightly softer economic times. (Performing vastly better than when the economy was humming when Dairy was booming for instance at $8+ kg.)
I hear that average load factors of AIR are the envy of the industry, certainly materially better than QAN.

I see China Eastern have some short term off peak special for $999 return to Europe flying sardine can class. Some American carriers down a bit overnight. Friday late afternoon before a long weekend often a good time to bag a bargain as weak holders and some traders don't want to hold over the long weekend.

Could be a really good day to top up :)

[Hoop]

The XAL chart (global airline index) I posted a few days ago (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ/page375) seems to now have a topped out rally as it may have a failed resistance breakout (bull trap)..that could hurt the index price in the coming days. AIR has some correlation with XAL...Interesting fact.. AIR failed breakout happened a few days before XAL's.. that's kinda spooky and worrying when taking in consideration AIR's drop this morning...Still no TA damage at 2.83 apart from a short term support break..

Charting things to watch out for..AIR (see chart) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1088-AIR-NZ/page375) is trading within a fuzzy narrow corridor...2.70/2.75 - 2.95/3.00 trading range (rectangle pattern) with an ascending triangle now slicing its way upwards through this trading range (rectangle pattern)..It seems AIR is wavering back to 2.75ish again...If 2.70/2.75 is on AIR's agenda then this time it will be different..as this time, it will include a downward ascending triangle break would create extra bear pressure when AIR tests it's trading range boundary (2.70/2.75)..The ascending up slope line boundary is presently at 2.80....

In a Summary....the AIR chart is saying there is much added risk this time around for Traders (Traders--those people who buy at the lower end of the trading range) now than previous times

[Nasi Goreng]

So are you currently in or out on this one Couta?

[couta1]

So are you currently in or out on this one Couta? Back in again today,enjoying the snacks, actually today I bought a whole meal.:cool:

[percy]

Back in again today,enjoying the snacks, actually today I bought a whole meal.:cool:

They are very well cared for shares.
You should do very well with them.
They were mine.!!..lol.

[Beagle]

Back in again today,enjoying the snacks, actually today I bought a whole meal.:cool:

I'm getting dizzy for you mate...I thought you implied the world was ending this morning. Just as well we have stabilising shareholders out there prepared to enjoy the ride despite the turbulence.

[couta1]

I'm getting dizzy for you mate...I thought you implied the world was ending this morning. Just as well we have stabilising shareholders out there prepared to enjoy the ride despite the turbulence. Come on Mate, look at the time of that post, well before market open, I take opportunities as they arise. Maybe I shouldn't put all my movements up if it's causing vertigo for some holders. PS-You'll see I'm consistent in my stand about this stock though after being taught many lessons.

[Beagle]

"Fare" enough mate, I now see that was a very early start to the day. Maybe you hadn't had your coffee at 6.00 a.m. and your thinking was foggy :) You're morphing into a good horse, (bird ?) trader and I respect that totally. I have some dry powder ready for any further weakness this afternoon. Maybe Percy will make me a donation by selling some at $2.75...I live in hope :)

[percy]

Sorry Couta1 cleaned me out.
Sold at $2.83.
Will be interesting to see if the Tegel bird, brought at $1.55 flies higher than AIR.

[Beagle]

You should do okay with Tegal..sometimes paying full brokerage with a full service broker is a good thing eh Percy.

[percy]

You should do okay with Tegal..sometimes paying full brokerage with a full service broker is a good thing eh Percy.

Yes the successful allocations into IPOs, certainly pays a lot of brokerage.
Yet one of the main reasons I use Craigs is because I could not cope with Australian currency [or paperwork].Having both a NZ and an Australian cash management account works really well.My Aussie dividend cheques go into it, and I can use those funds straight away.SPP and rights issues Craig's take up for me too.
Craig's were very helpful yesterday.I went to sell half my GMM.As my shareholder statement went back a few years. I got them to check I still owned them all.My shareholder number started with a 1 not an I.Craig's rang the registry and found it should have had the I then the 1.So again they helped me out.

[Beagle]

Back in again today,enjoying the snacks, actually today I bought a whole meal.:cool:


Friday late afternoon before a long weekend often a good time to bag a bargain as weak holders and some traders don't want to hold over the long weekend.

You jumped a bit early mate. Look at this important head's up I gave you good folks this morning. I'm starting to get hungry now we're in the late 270's :)

[couta1]

You jumped a bit early mate. Look at this important head's up I gave you good folks this morning. I'm starting to get hungry now we're in the late 270's :) Yeah but not so bad as it was a 3 course meal so I'm still currently buying dessert. (Avg price $2.81) Finished now and I just discovered it was actually an 8 course meal (No wonder I'm feeling bloated):cool:

[Beagle]

Yeah but not so bad as it was a 3 course meal so I'm still currently buying dessert. (Avg price $2.81) Finished now and I just discovered it was actually an 8 course meal (No wonder I'm feeling bloated):cool: LOL mate, sounds like my trip to Valentines restaurant last week :)

[WingingIt]

My first trade bought the day of Jetstar's regional announcement last July for 2.35 and sold out on Monday morning for 2.98, feeling sorry for whoever bought mine after seeing today's drop - the share was getting to uncertain for me. Thanks to everyone who contributes on this forum its always a great read.

[kelfy]

wow. AIR is down to $2.80. I am getting ready to buy back now

[sb9]

wow. AIR is down to $2.80. I am getting ready to buy back now

May get better price closer to market closing time, am picking it might touch 275 mark. Not keen to add though.

[Beagle]

May get better price closer to market closing time, am picking it might touch 275 mark. Not keen to add though.

Would be very canny buying if it gets there, I'm hoping it does.

[workingdad]

I'm buying back in today, bit of a roll of the dice with the potential to have some good news on the VAH sale side of things, of course some potential for the opposite too but its a cyclical stock and close to the lower end of it.

Glad I missed out at the start of the week, getting them for less now :)

[Biscuit]

... but its a cyclical stock and close to the lower end of it.
:)

you might want to check up the definition of a cyclical stock if you are saying AIR is close to the lower end of the cycle

[Beagle]

Pretty sure he meant to say close to the bottom of the recent trading range, which it is. It is a bit of a roll of the dice with the VAH thing too, agree with that too.
Balance of probabilities its good buying at $2.80.

[kelfy]

Pretty sure he meant to say close to the bottom of the recent trading range, which it is. It is a bit of a roll of the dice with the VAH thing too, agree with that too.
Balance of probabilities its good buying at $2.80.


Agree. It is now in good position

[winner69]

LOL mate, sounds like my trip to Valentines restaurant last week :)

Do Valentines serve oysters?

[Beagle]

They do for dinner. Chips too :) You come up from Wellington for the next Auckland ST meeting and I'll shout you and Couta1, chauffeur drive you from the airport in my Mercedes-Benz S Class and drop you back afterwards, is that a deal or what ! You guys must fly AIR though :)

[Beagle]

Well I couldn't resist getting some more at the close at the bargain price of $2.78.

[see weed]

They do for dinner. Chips too :) You come up from Wellington for the next Auckland ST meeting and I'll shout you and Couta1, chauffeur drive you from the airport in my Mercedes-Benz S Class and drop you back afterwards, is that a deal or what ! You guys must fly AIR though :)
Have you got any room in your boot? I live on the way.:)

[winner69]

They do for dinner. Chips too :) You come up from Wellington for the next Auckland ST meeting and I'll shout you and Couta1, chauffeur drive you from the airport in my Mercedes-Benz S Class and drop you back afterwards, is that a deal or what ! You guys must fly AIR though :)

Jeez a Mercedes-Benz S Class sounds rather classy

Bet u proud owner and polish it up every weekend

didn't see you as a guy who would go for an old Jap import but a big Merc wow. nothing wrong with spending your millions on nice things is there

But a Merc parked outside a Valentines - not that classy mate

[Baa_Baa]

Good banter, but y'all bought a solid sell signal today on the weekly chart, albeit almost on the MT rising trend line support (we'll see about that soon enough). $2.70 then $2.35 horizontal support underpins. Hope it works out.

GLTAH
BAA

[couta1]

Good banter, but y'all bought a solid sell signal today on the weekly chart, albeit almost on the MT rising trend line support (we'll see about that soon enough). $2.70 then $2.35 horizontal support underpins. Hope it works out.

GLTAH
BAA May go a few cents lower below the MA200 but that will be it IMO, unless bad news comes along.

[iceman]

Jeez a Mercedes-Benz S Class sounds rather classy

Bet u proud owner and polish it up every weekend

didn't see you as a guy who would go for an old Jap import but a big Merc wow. nothing wrong with spending your millions on nice things is there

But a Merc parked outside a Valentines - not that classy mate

Can confirm the Merc as I was fortunate enough to get a ride not so long ago. But I reckon parked outside Valentines on his way home after a cheap Jetstar flight where they served no cookies :-)

[winner69]

Can confirm the Merc as I was fortunate enough to get a ride not so long ago. But I reckon parked outside Valentines on his way home after a cheap Jetstar flight where they served no cookies :-)

Betcha Roger even thinking of a replacement - newer shinier model eh

Doesn't seem to be the type to hang on to cars for too long

Do Mercs tow boats? Or does the wifes 4WD get used for that?

[skid]

Betcha Roger even thinking of a replacement - newer shinier model eh

Doesn't seem to be the type to hang on to cars for too long

Do Mercs tow boats? Or does the wifes 4WD get used for that?

With the cost of parts for the merc he could buy a boat

[Raz]

Never realised a merc was such a novelty, not a great share performance, certainly potential for plenty of bad news hmm... On holiday in the US,happy sold before going on holiday... Just thought it would slide when i was not looking... Still time to think about timing the next trade...many burnt players on the wrong side to these swings must walk away at some point taking liquidity with it.

[BC_Doc]

In regards to timing, I reckon the biggest current issue is 'timing' the successful and hassle-free (or not) sale of VAH and the potential for a payout (again, or not) to the shareholders. Until then, I don't foresee any significant up movements in the share price as holders and potential holders jockey for position.

Disc: happy to sit this one out for the time being

[skid]

Yield was down 1.2% in $N.Z which is the currency they report in. Load factors at 84.5% are strong and running year to date at almost bang on last year's average.

I think yields are also holding up very well keeping in mind fuel is dirt cheap. John Key talking about one million Chinese tourists coming to N.Z. within 5 years, up from 300,000 now. Huge growth coming for other countries too, extra flights to Houston this coming summer to cope with demand, new routes, annualisation of previous routes started part way through the year e.t.c. The PE is under 5 so in my view all known and perceived competition threats are more than adequately priced in.

Yield based on current price is north of 10% and its sustainable for the foreseeable future, see post #5625

Sometimes I find it helpful rather than looking at a single month's operating stat's to zoom out and have a look at the bigger picture and here's what that looks like from a passenger load perspective
Average group wide load factor year to date 84.5%, (same as for the month of March itself). How does this compare to previous total group wide average load factors ?

Total Group load factor in:-

FY15 84.1%
FY14 84.1% (That's not a typo they were the same)
FY13 83.6%
FY12 82.8%
FY11 83.4%
FY10 81.8%

I see nothing to worry about. Business as usual and AIR on track to make a record profit before tax of circa $900 - $1,000 million. AIR management are doing a superb job of matching strongly growing demand with capacity and should be commended for how resilient the business is proving to be in slightly softer economic times. (Performing vastly better than when the economy was humming when Dairy was booming for instance at $8+ kg.)
I hear that average load factors of AIR are the envy of the industry, certainly materially better than QAN.

I see China Eastern have some short term off peak special for $999 return to Europe flying sardine can class. Some American carriers down a bit overnight. Friday late afternoon before a long weekend often a good time to bag a bargain as weak holders and some traders don't want to hold over the long weekend.

Could be a really good day to top up :)

So if the load factor has been so close over time --why the big swings in SP?--This one is a bit like a rubics cube and a rubber ball ,all rolled into one (the load factor is but a tiny piece of the puzzle,it appears)

[winner69]

So if the load factor has been so close over time --why the big swings in SP?--This one is a bit like a rubics cube and a rubber ball ,all rolled into one (the load factor is but a tiny piece of the puzzle,it appears)

Big swings in share price? only if you look too often

Price at end of June (AIR financial year end)

2012 0.86
2013 1.49
2014 2.08
2015 2.55
2016 3.00 plus

Pretty impressive eh - no big swings if you only have a peek once a year

Save oneself a heck of lot of grief wouldn't it - all the stuff that makes up your Rubik Cubes is just noise ...lots of it

[Beagle]

Big swings in share price? only if you look too often

Price at end of June (AIR financial year end)

2012 0.86
2013 1.49
2014 2.08
2015 2.55
2016 3.00 plus

Pretty impressive eh - no big swings if you only have a peek once a year

Save oneself a heck of lot of grief wouldn't it - all the stuff that makes up your Rubik Cubes is just noise ...lots of it

Surely folks that is the post of the week !

And on that theme:-

I think its helpful to zoom out and have a look at the bigger picture:-

1 . As far as I am concerned AIR's management are headed in the right direction with VAH. Mopst important thing to me is VAH don't get another cent of AIR's money.
2. I have heard most of the analysts have attributed little value to the VAH stake in their AIR DCF models so any successful sale could be the catalyst for a SP re-rating
3. Consensus analyst earnings for the next three years are 57 cps 55 cps and 42 cps. http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/
4. Inbound tourism is still growing at 10% per annum
5. AIR are getting their fair share of this growth
6. AIR's management have consistently shown a very high degree of acumen in terms of matching capacity with demand
7. There' no question they have a world class sales and marketing team
8 They have a very young and fuel efficient fleet
9. They have a very strong balance sheet by industry standards, one of only a small handful of airlines to have an investment grade credit rating.
10. They own most of their aircraft, circa 80%
11. The company, its management and directors are held in the highest regard in the investment community, (multiple Deloitte top 200 company awards)
12. They are one of the very few airlines in the world to pay high level's of dividends. Average consensus fully imputed dividends for the next 3 years 22.5 cps net,( 22.5 /0.72) = 31.25 cps gross, gross yield at $2.78 = 11.24% + Potential for special dividend(s)
13. Trading on FY16 PE of approx. 5 based on consensus analyst forecast.
14. Average broker target price $3.26 includes fully factoring in the net present value of increased competition.

In a stretched market with average PE running at about 18...this is one of the few companies that strike me as a decent value play.

Maybe just fasten one's seat belt and sleep through all turbulence is the way to go ? Disc: Now holding 8% portfolio allocation, (learned I don't sleep well with more than 10% so won't go there again).

Iceman - Nice to hear you enjoyed our time together and look forward to catching up next time you're in Auckland - Jetstar on the never again list now mate..life is too short to drink bad wine, low alcohol beer or fly shabby third rate airlines.

[Baa_Baa]

Big swings in share price? only if you look too often

Price at end of June (AIR financial year end)

2012 0.86
2013 1.49
2014 2.08
2015 2.55
2016 3.00 plus

Pretty impressive eh - no big swings if you only have a peek once a year

Save oneself a heck of lot of grief wouldn't it - all the stuff that makes up your Rubik Cubes is just noise ...lots of it

There's a bit of mischief winner, "no big swings" huh, maybe not, if you conveniently choose from 2012. Let's go back 15 years and see what happens ... whoa! Look at that annual chart for volatility. The thin blue line is the 5 year moving average, for perspective. But this time it's different eh, despite this year so far looking a bit lacklustre?

7994
;)

[Beagle]

Every since Chris Luxon took over we've seen growth supercharged. Last year's profit an all time record and we're looking at somewhere around double that this year. Yeah Baa Baa, that's really lacklustre :lol: :lol:

[Baa_Baa]

:eek2:
Every since Chris Luxon took over we've seen growth supercharged. Last year's profit an all time record and we're looking at somewhere around double that this year. Yeah Baa Baa, that's really lacklustre :lol: :lol:

Gee Roger, don't mock the messenger, anyone with their eyes open (except maybe blind betty :eek2:) can see that the share price seems to defy the outstanding facts about this company. Some objectivity would be appreciated ... your constant encouragement and winners $X by whenever ... doesn't seem very objective when the SP (the market valuation) is giving you all the bird.

Where'd you find this thing? :lol:

[Beagle]

Clearly I see the current dip as an opportunity Baa Baa. Yes airlines are volatile and yes anyone who bought at around the current price a year ago is probably disappointed the SP hasn't moved in tune with current earnings growth and YES anyone who bought and held for a couple / few years and ignored the noise is very happy...I think that was Winner's main point.

I tend to focus on the underlying profit performance rather than short term SP macerations so I think that's where we got our wires crossed mate. I think its important to note that Chris Luxon inherited the VAH investment from Rob Fyfe. When I spoke to him after the 2014 annual meeting I gathered the impression that he wasn't convinced even back then it was a great strategy, indeed it was only a few months later, early 2015 that he came out publicly and said VAH should be making money now and I am sure that public statement really annoyed Mr Borghatti.

He's had the Kahuna's to stand up to Borghatti and wants out and is determined that all parts of AIR business show a good return on capital invested and I for one admire him for his courage in taking that stand.

Some will be scared off AIR by its volatility or the worry of how the airline will perform in the face of additional competition. I think really top calibre management and directors are not something you often find in N.Z. business's as lets face it, in a global market place real talent is free to go anywhere. Happy to trust them to do the business and I think that's what it really boils down too. Nobody can reliably predict the future but come what may, when you have some of the best talent in N.Z. managing your business, your odds on favourite to be on a winner.

[Biscuit]

Some will be scared off AIR by its volatility or the worry of how the airline will perform in the face of additional competition. I think really top calibre management and directors are not something you often find in N.Z. business's as lets face it, in a global market place real talent is free to go anywhere. Happy to trust them to do the business and I think that's what it really boils down too. Nobody can reliably predict the future but come what may, when you have some of the best talent in N.Z. managing your business, your odds on favourite to be on a winner.

It's not that long ago that Rob Fyfe was touted as a bit of a manager guru. Craig Norgate was similarly feted as a bit of a super star. Plenty of very competent managers in NZ who do a great job with little fan-fare.

[hamish]

I fly each week WLG-AKL, AKL-WLG return. Have done for almost 24 months now. Was previously gold elite with AIR, then shifted companies and policy on flights differed. Flights with Jetstar started out OK first 12 months, however, last 6 months have been so-so, last 2 months appalling. My last 8 flights with Jetstar all delayed more than 1 hour each time - I hypothesise this is due to over-stretched on the new regional network to Napier, New Plymouth etc. Now Platinum with Jetsar, but it's worthless - no domestic lounge so loyalty is meaningless. Have switched back to AIR and paying extra on flights, enough is enough. The main trade-off for a weekly traveller, is Jetstar is cheaper/more convenient to change if my weekly schedule changes

Notwithstanding volatility of oil price etc and cyclical nature of industry - AIR is in a net-net growing market. Population growth + year on year flight growth to NZ, particularly from Asia, US and Aus. Their management understand this very well and have nailed the vision to grow globally, vs shrink domestically and wither. It's obvious they are a steering a balance with growth internationally and a defensive play domestically (as local monopoly/duopoly would).

AIRs marketing, data insights and customer centricity are first class. I manage transformation Programmes for large Organisations, AIR are always used as examples for customer experience design and implementation. I've been fortunate to meet some of their management through work - very switched on.

Being from WLG, it does stick in my craw however, their hostility to the runway extension. I get it, should the WLG extension become a winner, then an increased Qantas/Jestar hub expands and potentially becomes an growing viable direct destination, other than AKL. AIR plus AIA do not want that pseudo-monopoly to cease - check IFT briefing and some of their stats/charts for airline use in WLG and how AIRs % of WLG traffic is reduced.

Of great interest will be their ability to grow footprint to Philippines and Malaysia market. NZ has growing population and demand.

My summary; AIR is a great company, great management, great customer ethic, great marketing, good fleet, good balance sheet. Voted NZ # 1 reputable brand again this year. Yes increasing completion, yet in a growing industry. e.g. Better to be 60% of a $10b pie, than be 80% of a $5b pie (insert your own numbers there, they are just representative). FY16, AIR to post 'super-normal' profit, settling back to above normal profits (for them) as oil prices start to climb again and hit their bottom line; yet they will operate in a growing demand sector and increased revenues so longer term outlook positive

DYOR

[skid]

For the consistent business flyer it certainly seems that AIR have the edge. For the others ,I think price comes into it more.
I think the point made earlier is that even a good,well run,airline ,with good numbers can suffer from competition.
AIR are not going to wither on the vine,but competition has to be factored in,as to whether the SP will go exponential.
Did you see the glossy ad on TV about AA/Quantas and the New flights to America?
If New Zealand becomes even more popular,imo,even more will come to fill the Gap.
New Zealand is currently a very popular place(is it flavor of the year?) but it is a long way from almost everywhere so time will tell if
things taper off or carry on .
We have just finished the high season so unless you ski and want to go to Queenstown (RIP) then as a destination it stands to reason things will shift more to going to other international destinations,so it may be more whether AIR is the best way to get there. I dont believe they have the same edge internationally as they do domestically-there are other perfectly good airlines,with good service that are cheaper--and some that are crap that are way cheaper--AIR are smart and know they have to meet the market if need be,so that in itself can affect the numbers.
But in the end I think it comes down to how much of the public is willing to pay more ,and how much.

Meanwhile, what has changed since last Oct when the SP was 2.50 or $3.20 for that matter.

I have a love/hate thing going with our new popularity as an international destination--I just hope we dont end up soiling our own nest.

[Beagle]

My summary; AIR is a great company, great management, great customer ethic, great marketing, good fleet, good balance sheet. Voted NZ # 1 reputable brand again this year. Yes increasing completion, yet in a growing industry. e.g. Better to be 60% of a $10b pie, than be 80% of a $5b pie (insert your own numbers there, they are just representative). FY16, AIR to post 'super-normal' profit, settling back to above normal profits (for them) as oil prices start to climb again and hit their bottom line; yet they will operate in a growing demand sector and increased revenues so longer term outlook positive

Welcome to the forum Hamish and thank you for your excellent post.

[skid]

Welcome to the forum Hamish and thank you for your excellent post.

Roger ,Im curious (forgive me if I have missed it) but when you buy in when prices drop,do you hold all ,or sell some when prices are high?

[Beagle]

Skid - I sold one third of my holding at $3.03 recently, bought it back at $2.78 on Friday.

BTW Winner and Iceman - have to agree that Valentines is pretty ordinary fare...we need to lift our game for the next sharetrader meeting...wonder what the breakfast buffet is like here
http://www.booking.com/hotel/ch/matterhorn-focus.en-gb.html?aid=7344395;label=metatrivago-hotel-73897_xqdz-f90b7b87cc5b3b6f7f7242e46a245c7e_los-2_nrm-1_gstadt-2_gstkid-0_curr-nzd_lang-en;sid=9cac48b027ef3da9475f760483dc642c;dcid=1;che ckin=2016-07-15&checkout=2016-07-17&dist=0&group_adults=2&group_children=0&no_rooms=1&req_adults=2&req_children=0&sb_price_type=total&show_room=7389702_87331805_0_1&type=total&utm_campaign=nz&utm_content=los-2_nrm-1_gstadt-2_gstkid-0_curr-nzd_lang-en&utm_medium=meta&utm_source=metatrivago&utm_term=hotel-73897&

AIR could fund it all with a nice big 35 cent special divvy when they sell their stake in VAH. :)

[skid]

Skid - I sold one third of my holding at $3.03 recently, bought it back at $2.78 on Friday.

BTW Winner and Iceman - have to agree that Valentines is pretty ordinary fare...we need to lift our game for the next sharetrader meeting...wonder what the breakfast buffet is like here
http://www.booking.com/hotel/ch/matterhorn-focus.en-gb.html?aid=7344395;label=metatrivago-hotel-73897_xqdz-f90b7b87cc5b3b6f7f7242e46a245c7e_los-2_nrm-1_gstadt-2_gstkid-0_curr-nzd_lang-en;sid=9cac48b027ef3da9475f760483dc642c;dcid=1;che ckin=2016-07-15&checkout=2016-07-17&dist=0&group_adults=2&group_children=0&no_rooms=1&req_adults=2&req_children=0&sb_price_type=total&show_room=7389702_87331805_0_1&type=total&utm_campaign=nz&utm_content=los-2_nrm-1_gstadt-2_gstkid-0_curr-nzd_lang-en&utm_medium=meta&utm_source=metatrivago&utm_term=hotel-73897&

AIR could fund it all with a nice big 35 cent special divvy when they sell their stake in VAH. :)

Well done--It does seem to be operating within a certain parameter at this stage....slowly builds and then gets whacked.

[Beagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyexWlARGnU Off topic but thought you folks might enjoy this.

[Raz]

It's not that long ago that Rob Fyfe was touted as a bit of a manager guru. Craig Norgate was similarly feted as a bit of a super star. Plenty of very competent managers in NZ who do a great job with little fan-fare.
Best post I have seen here for a while, the ones with fan-fare make me laugh, especially if you have worked with them, NZ needs to really mature in this area. The cheerleaders seem back to their usual confidence and the Share price unlike the market is back to where it started.

[Bjauck]

Best post I have seen here for a while, the ones with fan-fare make me laugh, especially if you have worked with them, NZ needs to really mature in this area. The cheerleaders seem back to their usual confidence and the Share price unlike the market is back to where it started.
Much of the media love style over substance. They seem to love the poster glamour boys and girls whether it is in sports, business, politics or whatever. Remember the AirNZ campaign featuring body-painted uniforms. I thought it a bit of unnecessary media-grabbing for the CEO to be part of that!

[Beagle]

Best post I have seen here for a while, the ones with fan-fare make me laugh, especially if you have worked with them, NZ needs to really mature in this area. The cheerleaders seem back to their usual confidence and the Share price unlike the market is back to where it started.

Remind me again Raz, I seem to have forgotten...how many other CEO's are there that are doubling profits from last year's all time record and looking at circa $900m profit before tax this year ?
I look forward to you posting your list. I suspect the silence will be deafening. Hint...Its not oil price tailwinds that are solely driving this as yields have come down to reflect lower fuel prices.
I am not concerned with short term SP turbulence...happy to accumulate on weakness.

[Biscuit]

the ones with fan-fare make me laugh, especially if you have worked with them,

Personally I'm a bit wary of people who cultivate an adoring crowd.

[sb9]

May get better price closer to market closing time, am picking it might touch 275 mark. Not keen to add though.

Well there we've it, albeit day later $2.75. Still not keen to jump on board though...

[babymonster]

Might buy some at 2.7 level

[sb9]

Might buy some at 2.7 level

May reach there as long as CL keeps selling along with other senior execs and directors.

https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/281319

[oldtech]

As a very new investor (I've held shares for a number of years, but only started taking them somewhat seriously six months ago) I'm finding it interesting watching this.

I sold my holding at $3.035 two weeks ago, which gave me a bit of profit as I'd bought at $2.78 last year, planning to buy back in at $2.80. I took the opportunity on Friday to get back in (and use the profit to buy a few more at the same time) at $2.83, breaking my self-imposed price a little but I was still satisfied with that. On Friday afternoon I watched it continue to drop to finish at $2.78 and thought maybe I'd jumped in a bit too eagerly, but overall I was happy.

$2.745 now ... wonder how much lower it will go? I'm still satisfied that I got back in when I did, but can't help calculating how many more shares I could have bought with that extra 8.5 cents. :confused:

[BC_Doc]

May reach there as long as CL keeps selling along with other senior execs and directors.

https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/281319

I've never been good with interpreting these disclosure statements but my take on that is that CL acquired more shares leaving a net 'buy' rather than sell on the 21st and 22nd of April. Still learning and happy to be corrected by someone more in the know :)

[couta1]

As a very new investor (I've held shares for a number of years, but only started taking them somewhat seriously six months ago) I'm finding it interesting watching this.

I sold my holding at $3.035 two weeks ago, which gave me a bit of profit as I'd bought at $2.78 last year, planning to buy back in at $2.80. I took the opportunity on Friday to get back in (and use the profit to buy a few more at the same time) at $2.83, breaking my self-imposed price a little but I was still satisfied with that. On Friday afternoon I watched it continue to drop to finish at $2.78 and thought maybe I'd jumped in a bit too eagerly, but overall I was happy.

$2.745 now ... wonder how much lower it will go? I'm still satisfied that I got back in when I did, but can't help calculating how many more shares I could have bought with that extra 8.5 cents. :confused: Don't dwell on how many more shares you could have got (You'll find yourself in this situation from time to time, all part of the game) Just ignore the drop and hold, you were happy on Friday so stay happy, it will bounce back in due course.:cool: PS-Market down day today's anyways.

[BC_Doc]

Don't dwell on how many more shares you could have got (You'll find yourself in this situation from time to time, all part of the game) Just ignore the drop and hold, you were happy on Friday so stay happy, it will bounce back in due course.:cool:

Completely agree with ya. 'trying to catch the falling knife etc etc'. I think the market has undercooked this a bit now and expect to see a rebound shortly

[Beagle]

https://blog.asb.co.nz/posts/2015/11/the-history-of-kashin.html Information provided here for the benefit of AIR directors and senior management. Kashin is meant to be a savings device not a mechanism to regularly extract additional remuneration ! It doesn't help shareholders confidence when you guys regularly cash in your shares obtained through your extremely lucrative incentive scheme.

[sb9]

https://blog.asb.co.nz/posts/2015/11/the-history-of-kashin.html Information provided here for the benefit of AIR directors and senior management. Kashin is meant to be a savings device not a mechanism to regularly extract additional remuneration ! It doesn't help shareholders confidence when you guys regularly cash in your shares obtained through your extremely lucrative incentive scheme.

Are you bit concerned with current turbulence Roger, not good for your blood pressure ;)

[Longhaul]

Drop might just be in line with the sector? NYSE Arca Airline Index (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=xal&x=39&y=12&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=6%2F2%2F2014&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=5&maval=50%2C200&uf=8&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=1024&type=4&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11)

[workingdad]

really goes to show how exposed we are to the international effect if it comes down to the airline index which presumably it does from the first days drop in line with that and no other news to speak of.

I bought back in Friday and am surprised to see it get to the lows it has but AIR is cyclical and likely to bounce back, worse case I hold it for longer than I wanted and soak up some dividends instead. I didn't throw a lot at it with the thoughts in the back of the mind the potential for a market correction of some significance is something I think is on the cards, glad to have been cautious but considering buying a few more....

[Raz]

Remind me again Raz, I seem to have forgotten...how many other CEO's are there that are doubling profits from last year's all time record and looking at circa $900m profit before tax this year ?
I look forward to you posting your list. I suspect the silence will be deafening. Hint...Its not oil price tailwinds that are solely driving this as yields have come down to reflect lower fuel prices.
I am not concerned with short term SP turbulence...happy to accumulate on weakness.
Little emotive for an accountant me thinks, could name 30 CEOs in SFO/The valley that have achieved better in the past two years and still I would say so what...from an inadequate rate of return or low base even if it was a record last year mean little to the objective. The return this year has to be considered in relation to what will happen with virgin so hold the phone:) Hamish makes me laugh, will have to wait to get back to him as at airport about to fly out of LAX. Low 270 resistance level I'm watching. Ps when I have worked for PLCs, executive shares held by cultural rules not to sell executive shares like this, still common attitude at the fortune 500 companies I have association with. Suggest much about executive culture at AIR.

[babymonster]

back in....

[vin]

Sheesh, glad I sold out at $3.025 - May jump back in...

[Beagle]

Little emotive for an accountant me thinks, could name 30 CEOs in SFO/The valley that have achieved better in the past two years and still I would say so what...from an inadequate rate of return or low base even if it was a record last year mean little to the objective. The return this year has to be considered in relation to what will happen with virgin so hold the phone:) Hamish makes me laugh, will have to wait to get back to him as at airport about to fly out of LAX. Low 270 resistance level I'm watching. Ps when I have worked for PLCs, executive shares held by cultural rules not to sell executive shares like this, still common attitude at the fortune 500 companies I have association with. Suggest much about executive culture at AIR.

N.Z. CEO's Raz. AIR's return on capital very impressive... Looking forward to your list ASAP.

[garfy]

I have been 'in the share market' long enough to know that - SP goes up, SP goes down. Being primarily an investor, rather than a trader, I am very happy to see the capital gains made when the price goes up, and also accept the dividends. Over the last three years with AIR I now have enough money 'in the bank' to watch the 'downs' without too much panic. I also think this is a very fine company, and get a lot of pleasure, and take some pride, in seeing the livery flying in and out daily. I accept that with increasing competition the profits may be reduced in the future, but with the way AIR has positioned itself for the future, I feel sure that it will continue to represent NZ, and its shareholders, well.
I look forward to reading all the forum postings, preferring to read the pros than the cons, of course. And I do appreciate the well considered postings from Roger, and enjoyed reading Hamish's post. Some of the negative posts seem to be very emotive for whatever reason....... :-)

[vin]

Bought a decent parcel at $2.72, couldn't resist.

[Hoop]

I have been 'in the share market' long enough to know that - SP goes up, SP goes down. Being primarily an investor, rather than a trader, I am very happy to see the capital gains made when the price goes up, and also accept the dividends. Over the last three years with AIR I now have enough money 'in the bank' to watch the 'downs' without too much panic. I also think this is a very fine company, and get a lot of pleasure, and take some pride, in seeing the livery flying in and out daily. I accept that with increasing competition the profits may be reduced in the future, but with the way AIR has positioned itself for the future, I feel sure that it will continue to represent NZ, and its shareholders, well.
I look forward to reading all the forum postings, preferring to read the pros than the cons, of course. And I do appreciate the well considered postings from Roger, and enjoyed reading Hamish's post. Some of the negative posts seem to be very emotive for whatever reason....... :-)

Ok...here is a non emotive post as we all know "emotion kills"...
Amazing sentence..I had to pinch myself and read it twice "....Over the last three years with AIR I now have enough money 'in the bank' to watch the 'downs' without too much panic...." Ask yourself this question...What is so wrong about watching the downs from the sidelines?..
Holding for 3 years you would've doubled your money..That's a very good investment result....Why watch Mr Market take it back?.. What is your objective?

[777]

Don't sell.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/79320441/lowball-offer-for-air-new-zealand-shareholders

[kelfy]

I got their offer for SPK early this year. I can't see why people would sell to them as their offer was so low. They are much like a online scam by sending actual mail

[skid]

the only possible advantage would be of you had such a small number that (as they say) the brokerage fee would be more than the offer price--(how many would only have 10 shares) Hopefully no ''grandmas''will be taken in--This scam has been going for some time.
Im assuming if the SP went to $1.65 they would not still be offering 1.70.

I doesnt make sense that this would affect the SP though

[777]

I only put it up as it involved AIR. I know of people that have been conned into selling shares into these scumbags.

[skid]

I only put it up as it involved AIR. I know of people that have been conned into selling shares into these scumbags.

Fair enough,,unfortunately the ones who may get conned most likely dont keep up with Share trader (but still good to post it) i hate the thought of some old person who is not to clear thinking anymore selling their shares their son or daughter bought for them etc.

[babymonster]

Hopefully the 270 support will hold this round

[Mickey]

I decided to come back in again. Picked some up at 270.5 at close of trading.

[Beagle]

I have been 'in the share market' long enough to know that - SP goes up, SP goes down. Being primarily an investor, rather than a trader, I am very happy to see the capital gains made when the price goes up, and also accept the dividends. Over the last three years with AIR I now have enough money 'in the bank' to watch the 'downs' without too much panic. I also think this is a very fine company, and get a lot of pleasure, and take some pride, in seeing the livery flying in and out daily. I accept that with increasing competition the profits may be reduced in the future, but with the way AIR has positioned itself for the future, I feel sure that it will continue to represent NZ, and its shareholders, well.
I look forward to reading all the forum postings, preferring to read the pros than the cons, of course. And I do appreciate the well considered postings from Roger, and enjoyed reading Hamish's post. Some of the negative posts seem to be very emotive for whatever reason....... :-)


Ok...here is a non emotive post as we all know "emotion kills"...
Amazing sentence..I had to pinch myself and read it twice "....Over the last three years with AIR I now have enough money 'in the bank' to watch the 'downs' without too much panic...." Ask yourself this question...What is so wrong about watching the downs from the sidelines?..
Holding for 3 years you would've doubled your money..That's a very good investment result....Why watch Mr Market take it back?.. What is your objective?

Nice post Garfy and I think your post Hoop illustrates the fundamental difference between a trader and an investor. Neither approach can be categorically said to be better than the other so its horses for courses and everyone has to find their own approach that's right for them. For me I've tried trading AIR shares on technical signals, sometimes it works and other times it doesn't.

Your implication that you can categorically predict the future Hoop based on technical factors alone doesn't appear to hold water as far as I am concerned. I think if you are making the point that its well worth looking at technical indicators as well as fundamental's then that's a perfectly legitimate point to make but that's not how it your post came across, well, not how I read it anyway. Probably his approach is just as successful or more so than others who get frightened by turbulence or technical sell signals than can often be nothing more than the SP being affected by a series of negative press articles or a new competitor entering the market. This stock is a bit of a rubic's cube but buy and hold has worked a treat in the last few years and of that fact there is no debate. Its not a sin to have some pride in our national carrier either...

[Hoop]

Hopefully the 270 support will hold this round
At around 3.00pm today was the first successful bounce off that 270 support area which also signals that 270 support has some strength... that's the good news
Unfortunately today's drop has caused some technical damage..included was the break of the long term indicator the MA200 (278).

The global airlines index is also close to testing its support.

[Hoop]

Nice post Garfy and I think your post Hoop illustrates the fundamental difference between a trader and an investor. Neither approach can be categorically said to be better than the other so its horses for courses and everyone has to find their own approach that's right for them. For me I've tried trading AIR shares on technical signals, sometimes it works and other times it doesn't.

Your implication that you can categorically predict the future Hoop based on technical factors alone doesn't appear to hold water as far as I am concerned. I think if you are making the point that its well worth looking at technical indicators as well as fundamental's then that's a perfectly legitimate point to make but that's not how it your post came across, well, not how I read it anyway. Probably his approach is just as successful or more so than others who get frightened by turbulence or technical sell signals than can often be nothing more than the SP being affected by a series of negative press articles or a new competitor entering the market. This stock is a bit of a rubic's cube but buy and hold has worked a treat in the last few years and of that fact there is no debate. Its not a sin to have some pride in our national carrier either...

[sigh..] I give up..
.....seeya

[skid]

Nice post Garfy and I think your post Hoop illustrates the fundamental difference between a trader and an investor. Neither approach can be categorically said to be better than the other so its horses for courses and everyone has to find their own approach that's right for them. For me I've tried trading AIR shares on technical signals, sometimes it works and other times it doesn't.

Your implication that you can categorically predict the future Hoop based on technical factors alone doesn't appear to hold water as far as I am concerned. I think if you are making the point that its well worth looking at technical indicators as well as fundamental's then that's a perfectly legitimate point to make but that's not how it your post came across, well, not how I read it anyway. Probably his approach is just as successful or more so than others who get frightened by turbulence or technical sell signals than can often be nothing more than the SP being affected by a series of negative press articles or a new competitor entering the market. This stock is a bit of a rubic's cube but buy and hold has worked a treat in the last few years and of that fact there is no debate. Its not a sin to have some pride in our national carrier either...

I never got the impression that Hoop was claiming to categorically predict anything--from where Im sitting its all about the odds,and if there are things that appear to be pushing the odds in one particular direction wouldnt it be prudent to observe (if you have the expertise)and use that to help with your investment decisions.
You have to do something ,you either buy-hold-or sell. To discount anything that helps to make that decision makes plain sense to me.
There is nothing that is not affected by the market,a house-money in the bank-Shares...might as well try to look for the best odds as you can. (doesnt mean your gonna win,but if theres an even slightly greater chance than why not look at it) nothing is categorical- not AIR,not Luxton,..not even the sun coming up tomorrow (but the odds are pretty good it will,even if covered by rain clouds)--Its all about the odds

Its natural that a TA specialist and an accountant are going to see things differently--we need both

PS-looks like the 270 has held and bounced if pre market depth is anything to go by---(just like it has done more than once before which puts the odds in its favor) to put it very simply

[Beagle]

[sigh..] I give up..
.....seeya

I apologise if I got the wrong end of the stick Hoop and I do value your input and know you are trying to help others understand other investing perspective's from a technical analysis viewpoint. FWIW its posts like #5726 that I appreciate and I am sure others do too. Then we can weigh-up whether we want to stick with our fundamental belief about AIR because of its outstanding fundmental's or run for cover because of the technical's. I'm sure it will come as no surprise to you and others that I will be holding.

100% agree with Skid's last sentence in his post just above. Its a free and fulsome exchange of views that makes this an interesting and informative forum so please stick around and continue to share your viewpoint.

[skid]

I apologise if I got the wrong end of the stick Hoop and I do value your input and know you are trying to help others understand other investing perspective's from a technical analysis viewpoint. FWIW its posts like #5726 that I appreciate and I am sure others do too. Then we can weigh-up whether we want to stick with our fundamental belief about AIR because of its outstanding fundmental's or run for cover because of the technical's. I'm sure it will come as no surprise to you and others that I will be holding.

100% agree with Skid's last sentence in his post just above. Its a free and fulsome exchange of views that makes this an interesting and informative forum so please stick around and continue to share your viewpoint.

Yes....looking at the ''odds'' of what Roger would do...I thought you'd be holding :)

[Raz]

Some posters getting caught up in their bias I see, never ends well in a discussion let alone investments, time to buy in if you think 270 is going to hold.

[Nasi Goreng]

Well the buy is currently 269 and sellers at 270. This will be a decent test, it looks vulnerable here. I think it goes lower today.

Whether or not 270 is good buying for investors is a different debate. But what market might be saying right now is we like air NZ but will hold off till low 260s.

[workingdad]

Well the buy is currently 269 and sellers at 270. This will be a decent test, it looks vulnerable here. I think it goes lower today.

Whether or not 270 is good buying for investors is a different debate. But what market might be saying right now is we like air NZ but will hold off till low 260s.

Interesting day indeed. It is a cyclical stock but losing 10% of SP value in a short period without any real news to give reason as to why - the international airline index hasn't really been an accurate reflection of AIR.

I might kick in for some more again if it goes lower. Looking ahead the only concern for me is the VAH sale but guessing this should be reasonable outcome.

[couta1]

Well the buy is currently 269 and sellers at 270. This will be a decent test, it looks vulnerable here. I think it goes lower today.

Whether or not 270 is good buying for investors is a different debate. But what market might be saying right now is we like air NZ but will hold off till low 260s. At the end of the day if you make a profit when you sell then it was good buying for you as an individual when you purchased whether that was $2.80ish or $2.70ish and then there's the divvy on top of that as well to consider.

[winner69]

Interesting day indeed. It is a cyclical stock but losing 10% of SP value in a short period without any real news to give reason as to why - the international airline index hasn't really been an accurate reflection of AIR.

I might kick in for some more again if it goes lower. Looking ahead the only concern for me is the VAH sale but guessing this should be reasonable outcome.

Recent ups and downs in AIR share price have little to do with it being a 'cyclical'

'Cyclical' stocks are so called because they generally move in tandem with economic cycles - ie longer term ups and downs.

Current AIR ups and downs just reflect punters moodiness at the moment - some days they are happy and some days they are grumpy.

And AIR is 18% down from a recent high ...grumpy stuff eh

[vin]

Due for some happiness.. I hope :D:t_up:

[Arbroath]

Recent ups and downs in AIR share price have little to do with it being a 'cyclical'

'Cyclical' stocks are so called because they generally move in tandem with economic cycles - ie longer term ups and downs.

Current AIR ups and downs just reflect punters moodiness at the moment - some days they are happy and some days they are grumpy.

And AIR is 18% down from a recent high ...grumpy stuff eh

There is no mystery here imho. In the past 4 weeks AIR is off 11% and Qantas is off 24%. Its all down to sentiment and since Qantas scaled back their expected expansion the market has gone cautious on Australasian airline stocks. Virgin is in play and low beta so can be ignored in this regard.
I reckon Air is holding up well given the Qantas meltdown.

On the stage of the cycle I think peak earnings will be this year with FY17 pretty flat followed by a turn for the worse but how much is the big question. Somewhere between $2.50-$3.30 seems fair to me depending on your view of the maturity of the cycle....

[Raz]

the news to me is the media hype on VAH sale has gone quiet, uncertainty on this is an element IMHO.

[couta1]

Just plain herd mentality IMO, remember the herd don't think they just react:cool: PS- If I had more money available I'd be in big time right now (I mean bigger than the big I'm already holding)

[dobby41]

It's hard work going against the herd - get pushed around a lot.
Remember the herd drives markets up also.

[couta1]

It's hard work going against the herd - get pushed around a lot.
Remember the herd drives markets up also. You don't work against the herd if your holding at a higher price,just let them jump of the cliff while you sit back,relax and wait for a new herd of hill climbers to come along keen to get to the top.

[Beagle]

There is no mystery here imho. In the past 4 weeks AIR is off 11% and Qantas is off 24%. Its all down to sentiment and since Qantas scaled back their expected expansion the market has gone cautious on Australasian airline stocks. Virgin is in play and low beta so can be ignored in this regard.
I reckon Air is holding up well given the Qantas meltdown.

On the stage of the cycle I think peak earnings will be this year with FY17 pretty flat followed by a turn for the worse but how much is the big question. Somewhere between $2.50-$3.30 seems fair to me depending on your view of the maturity of the cycle....

Agree 100%. Consensus analyst estimate for FY18 is 42 cps. Even if we assume it conservatively and gradually tails off after that to 30 cps in FY20, (I don't see it that conservatively) as the full effects of airline competition sets in and call that mid point in the cycle, put a PE of 11, which is the 10 year average and you get $3.30. I really think at this point the market is rather "fixated" with the increased competition and slightly softer consumer demand Qantas is experiencing. AIR's loads remain at the same robust level as last year which is better than any of the previous 5 years. P.S. AIR's balance sheet in far more robust state than QAN's. I always said that QAN SP was overdone relative to AIR and we're seeing that play out now with QAN getting absolutely thumped, down a full dollar since that most recent announcement of their's, (which actually didn't look as bad as some appear to think it did, by my interpretation).

QAN's thumping dragging AIR down in the downdraft, opportunity knocks ?

[winner69]

Only Aucklanders could ome up with this explanation of AIR appearing to be so cheap -,

A decent house in Remuera = FPH type valuations

Same decent house in Mangere = AIR type valuations

As a Wellingtonian, is Mangere not a desirable place for a decent house?

[kiora]

Only Aucklanders could ome up with this explanation of AIR appearing to be so cheap -,

A decent house in Remuera = FPH type valuations

Same decent house in Mangere = AIR type valuations

As a Wellingtonian, is Mangere not a desirable place for a decent house?

Mangere,the new Ponsonby,MMW !;)

[winner69]

Mangere,the new Ponsonby,MMW !;)

Thats positive for AIR share price

[skid]

Guess i was wrong about the bounce.
There have certainly been alot of explanations for the drop(I wonder which ,if any are right)
The one who seems to have been closest so far has..well,.. been categorically quiet:)

Maybe some day they will change everything around so that the SP is automatically computed by the earnings of the company,like a profit shareing plan--ok theres dividends but ive been fleeced a few times on SP waiting for a dividend.

Now if Luxton had been purchasing AIR shares ,Im sure the SP would have benefited(it usually does) so a CEO selling is obviously the other side of the coin --we cant have our cake and eat it too.

Im surprised you are not all lining up for a subscription to Skids ''Gutometer''

Has anyone else noticed that the NZX has ''broken ranks'' the last few days?

[777]

The CEO's name is Luxon.

[Zaphod]

Air NZ eyeing Chengdu as next destination, report says

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/79351910/air-nz-eyeing-chengdu-as-next-destination-report-says

[stevevai1983]

Air NZ eyeing Chengdu as next destination, report says

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/79351910/air-nz-eyeing-chengdu-as-next-destination-report-says

wow nice, my hometown. easier for me to travel :)

[Bobdn]

Just bought 16,000 at 2.67. I'm a sucker for a huge diividend and this one seems ridiculously huge. Still, as I found out with TTK, not all that glitters is gold.

What are the chances of a special dividend this year. I see one was paid in 2014.

[Raz]

Just bought 16,000 at 2.67. I'm a sucker for a huge diividend and this one seems ridiculously huge. Still, as I found out with TTK, not all that glitters is gold.

What are the chances of a special dividend this year. I see one was paid in 2014. staggered buying, not convinced SP has bottomed out, this time appears different. On this swing has paid for my holiday and more :)

[boysy]

How much technical damage has been done from the recent drop in SP ?

[skid]

The CEO's name is Luxon.

Whoops.. Luxon--(Whatever his name,he certainly timed his share selling right)

[couta1]

How much technical damage has been done from the recent drop in SP ? Pretty much the whole market is getting hammered, I don't see the drop as Air specific, just a correction in general to a prior rampant market.

[Beagle]

What are the chances of a special dividend this year. I see one was paid in 2014.

Very good.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Pretty much the whole market is getting hammered, I don't see the drop as Air specific, just a correction in general to a prior rampant market.

AIR down ~13-14% whilst NZX down ~2%. The two are not/have not been strongly correlated.

The breaking of major trendlines and technicals scream extreme caution required. It suggests a test of the primary trend line in the 240-250 region may play out. Breaks of major technicals require confirmed reversals before re-entry, and tight stops.

Keep your fingers attached folks.

[couta1]

AIR down ~13-14% whilst NZX down ~2%. The two are not/have not been strongly correlated.

The breaking of major trendlines and technicals scream extreme caution required. It suggests a test of the primary trend line in the 240-250 region may play out. Breaks of major technicals require confirmed reversals before re-entry, and tight stops.

Keep your fingers attached folks. Fair enough although other stocks like AIA have also taken a good thumping of late. For those already holding I reckon they should just sit tight, the price will be back to around $3 before the next divvy, don't lose your hide unecessarily.:cool:

[winner69]

Let us not forget when AIR last was a hugely successful airline the share price trebled and reached $16.61 (ft.com says adjusted for all splits etc so I believe them)

It is once again a hugely successful airline

[Valuegrowth]

Today, it dropped by more than 2.40% on a volume of more than average volume. What is the main reason for this?

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AIR.NZ

[Baa_Baa]

Today, it dropped by more than 2.40% on a volume of more than average volume. What is the main reason for this?

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AIR.NZ

Smart money is exiting (has exited)? Some nice capital profits been had by the nimble, whereas the die hard divi takers holding and some even buying the declining SP despite common logic not to buy a downtrend. Who knows where it could end? Has nothing to do with fundamentals, that's becoming obvious. Follow the money.