AIR - Air NZ.

[boysy]

More cheerleaders to shout down any opowing views. It's a shame frank discussion cannot take place on this thread it's starting to become like hotcopper with rampers left right and Centre.

[couta1]

More cheerleaders to shout down any opowing views. It's a shame frank discussion cannot take place on this thread it's starting to become like hotcopper with rampers left right and Centre. OG didn't fit that bill, he simply stated his position and wasn't influenced by others, hardly what you would call ramping, he bought Air as a long term hold and was comfortable with that. As far as cheerleading and ramping are concerned, perhaps you should consider your own involvement over on the TIL thread.

[h2so4]

More cheerleaders to shout down any opowing views. It's a shame frank discussion cannot take place on this thread it's starting to become like hotcopper with rampers left right and Centre.

I have found the AIR thread has become a difficult (maybe not the right word) one to post on. I now mostly observe and enjoy everyone else's valuable opinions and postings.

[h2so4]

.....appreciate Rogers "let's get back to business comment".

[boysy]

Couta1 happy to discuss til on the appropriate thread. No one should feel the need to have to defend their position whether it be long or short a particular stock. With the market having dealt air a beating of late this thread for holders almost seems like a group therapy session with the cheerleaders declaring how cheap air is at present. While everyone should.of course DYOR without a balance thread a risk remains novice investors will vase investment decisions on others comments.

[couta1]

All good boysy, I just happen to like OG so happy to support him in his absence, he has stuck up for me in the past when I received an unfair post or two.

[Beagle]

I don't get it ? Why have we seen such a growth in people critiquing other's posts on this thread lately ? People are allowed to express their view on AIR, preferably when backed by sound analysis and thoughts...its really nobody's job to critique others posts other than the moderator...can we please get back to discussing AIR !

[Raz]

I don't get it ? Why have we seen such a growth in people critiquing other's posts on this thread lately ? People are allowed to express their view on AIR, preferably when backed by sound analysis and thoughts...its really nobody's job to critique others posts other than the moderator...can we please get back to discussing AIR !

Management are all very surprised by the extent of the SP fall...

Great first paragraph, there will be an edge when debate on an investment which has resulted in a polar position of some winners and losers of late. Will take time to settle.

Don't agree putting the second paragraph out there, do yourself a favour and delete it.

[Beagle]

Done that Raz, we'll keep that between us :)

[Raz]

Done that Raz, we'll keep that between us :)

Cool, I know you are trying to do the right thing, just suspect you would be buying yourself some grief on here...

[blockhead]

Done that Raz, we'll keep that between us :)

Think you might have been getting close to "slap on the wrist time" with the deleted post Rog...I never saw it !

[Baa_Baa]

Done that Raz, we'll keep that between us :)

you're quoted by Raz.

[Raz]

you're quoted by Raz.

Not the part that mattered:-)

[Beagle]

Cool, I know you are trying to do the right thing, just suspect you would be buying yourself some grief on here...

You're probably right but the irony of you critiquing my post this morning after the first paragraph isn't lost on me LOL, but thanks anyway :)


you're quoted by Raz.

Nothing left that I didn't post about in detail yesterday.

Hopefully the monthly operating stat's will be out next week to give us something meaningful to chew on...in the meantime I'd better get some billable hours under my belt.

[workingdad]

You're probably right but the irony of you critiquing my post this morning after the first paragraph isn't lost on me LOL, but thanks anyway :)



Nothing left that I didn't post about in detail yesterday.

Hopefully the monthly operating stat's will be out next week to give us something meaningful to chew on...in the meantime I'd better get some billable hours under my belt.

I was hopeful monthly stats would have been out this week but I am surprised someone isn't getting billed for the time you have on the forum :scared:

[stoploss]

Couta1 happy to discuss til on the appropriate thread. No one should feel the need to have to defend their position whether it be long or short a particular stock. With the market having dealt air a beating of late this thread for holders almost seems like a group therapy session with the cheerleaders declaring how cheap air is at present. While everyone should.of course DYOR without a balance thread a risk remains novice investors will vase investment decisions on others comments.
boysy if Til don't meet some lofty targets I think your TIL thread will quickly resemble this one . I agree with Couta ,your posting of every second trade that goes through the market appears like a ramp . Do you think others can't see whats going through the market ?
" What proportion of the index does til comprise I would be suppressed if it was hundreds of thousands of dollars if not more as volume today would suggest"
You have a crack at novice investors above , if you are such a sophisticated investor you would surely know where to find out this information .

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/16891267/nz-posts-new-migration-tourism-records-in-april-underpinning-growth.html

Migration booming too and also at a record annual rate.

[heisenberg]

Migration booming too and also at a record annual rate.

And Air NZ SP keeps falling, falling....

[couta1]

And Air NZ SP keeps falling, falling.... A lot of falling going on across the board at the moment, no single reason but those sitting on a cash pile must be having joyful bursts tossing up what they are going to buy.

[boysy]

Guys if you want to discuss til please get on the right thread.

[Raz]

A lot of falling going on across the board at the moment, no single reason but those sitting on a cash pile must be having joyful bursts tossing up what they are going to buy.

Well no fun getting no return on cash, handy for liquidity...hard to know when to buy in again to be honest:-)

[heisenberg]

Well no fun getting no return on cash, handy for liquidity...hard to know when to buy in again to be honest:-)

KW had pretty sage advice regarding when to buy at the start of this thread: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9176-Using-TA-to-time-entries-and-exits

[Raz]

KW had pretty sage advice regarding when to buy at the start of this thread: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9176-Using-TA-to-time-entries-and-exits

It is good advice however looking at TA on AIR currently is not encouraging from my reading. Regardless of the FA.

I would suggest FA doesn't work that well selecting shares currently on the NZX given current values...ho hum.

[Beagle]

Monthly operating stat's looked satisfactory, a little down on last year but nothing disconcerting.

Fuel Hedging disclosure looks very attractive as they have locked in really low rates for this quarter and next and are well over $20m in the money with fuel hedging as at 13 May.

Yields continue to hold up well in the context of very low fuel prices and increased competition.

Nothing in the latest operating stat's or fuel price hedging disclosure to explain the dramatic SP correction.

Negative sentiment and uncertainty rules the roost while the VAH matter hangs in limbo and this appears to be badly exacerbated by fear of new competition. Opportunity knocks ? for the brave and hardy souls who are prepared to buy against what I admit are absolutely terrible looking technical indicators. Current year PE now only 3.9 at an unprecedented all time ? low. (Qan 5.8))...I must be getting double vision here...I thought it was QAN that was pulling back on capacity growth because of slackening demand and yet they are currently trading at a considerable PE premium to AIR...go figure ?????

(Disc doubled my holding yesterday, not to be considered professional advice, DYOR)

[Sideshow Bob]

Been on 5 AIR domestic flights in the last 2 days - not more than a dozen empty seats in total.

They'll also start to smash it in/out of Qtown once night flights start next week.

[Grimy]

I bought a few more today to bring my average to $2.44. Like a few others I thought I'd done well only a week or so back buying at 2.58..... Just glad I sold 1/2 my holding (albeit small) at 3.02. Rather unhappy I didn't sell 100% then!

[James108]

A lot of falling going on across the board at the moment, no single reason but those sitting on a cash pile must be having joyful bursts tossing up what they are going to buy.

The NZX50 is approx 1% from its record.. so no, not really.

[Snow Leopard]

Fuel Hedging Announcements provide great insights for those of you who think that spreadsheets can be fun, and here are a couple of highlights for you:

FY17 Estimated Fuel Consumption is about 6.6% greater than FY16 (c.f. FY16 to FY15 was about 7.6% greater).

Whereas this time last year (Final Quarter of FY15), AIR had only hedged about 23% (1H 44% / 2H 2%) of their fuel estimates for the FY16 year,
Now, as we approach the end of FY16, they have already hedged 50% (1H 83% / 2H 22%) of FY17's estimated fuel.

I wonder how their currency hedging is going?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS The hedge Brent but burn Jet Fuel :confused:

[couta1]

The NZX50 is approx 1% from its record.. so no, not really. That may be so but there are many shares such as Air/NZR/A2/HBL to name but a few that are up to 40% off their highs.

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11642546

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/air-nz-has-delivered-84-annual-return-government-2002-rescue-treasury-estimates-b-189318

Can't help wondering how much they've got from all the tax paid by AIR employees over the years and company tax too.

[moka]

People are entitled to their opinions and this thread would be boring if we all shared the same view. I enjoy and learn from the diversity of opinions.

However while some people see a statement like “you are wrong “ as an opinion I don’t see it that way. To me the person is stating it as if it a fact. It is also coming from a one up-position i.e. I’m okay you are not okay. And what is not said but is implied is that because you are wrong I am right and that only one person can be right. If the comment was directed at me I would see it as an attack which I would take personally. It would be hard to respond to that comment without the conversation escalating.

And we should remember that there is only one person who is right and that is Mr Market who is a drunken psycho according to Warren Buffett, and therefore very hard to predict.

If you use an I-statement and say “I think you are wrong” it would obviously be your opinion and my response would be curiosity as to why you thought that and it would open the way to a discussion where we both could learn something. So if you are going to disagree please try to start with an I-statement such as I believe, I think or I disagree, and make it clear that it is your opinion or your perception.

[Joshuatree]

Excellent ,and thanks for your open ,clear communication on this subject moka; something i for one, can improve on. its very appropriate for this AIR thread and all others. A simple win/win non confrontational style for all to gain from and for opinions to be freely (,& vigourshly if need be ) debated , agreed and disagreed; for research and opinions to be shared and allowed to keep threads FLOWING freely. its not a boxing match but a forum to enrich ourselves in more ways than one.
Still holding AIR from low $2.40's (what i thought was a margin of safety)entry a way back and watching hopefully for a convincing trend change. So many things to consider including the overseas buyers who seem to be ignoring the current value metrics and maybe still selling down/ exiting AIR at local holders cost.

[Beagle]

Projected NTA of AIR according to consensus analyst forecast on 4 traders as at 30 June 2016 is $2.05 in case anyone is wondering. All of the airlines stocks I follow are trading at a substantial premium to NTA and AIR has bought its shares back before when they've traded below NTA. Just putting it out there as another aspect of this puzzle that might be worthy of consideration. Disc Holding (DYOR, not to be considered professional advice or a recommendation).

[winner69]

Buying ones shares back is one common way to enhance Total Shareholder Returns - management love doing them because in a lot of cases gives hem bigger bonuses.

One way, at a total level, to mitigate capital losses from a declining share price.

[freddagg]

Buying ones shares back is one common way to enhance Total Shareholder Returns - management love doing them because in a lot of cases gives hem bigger bonuses.

One way, at a total level, to mitigate capital losses from a declining share price.

I am pretty sure our largest shareholder would rather take the cash. I would as well and then I can decide for myself whether I want to invest more in the company.

[winner69]

My neighbour says he and his mates down the bowling club cut their losses on HLG when they got their decent dividend and shifted into AIR because of the high yield. Pleased they got the decent dividend a few weeks ago but lamenting a huge capital loss so selling up.

One of the team uses Comvita products and they worked out it is a pretty good investment so apparently whats left of the term deposit money is going into Comvita

Seeking better returns from buying high yield stocks not working for these guys - i refuse to get involved, might lead them up the garden path.

[winner69]

I am pretty sure our largest shareholder would rather take the cash. I would as well and then I can decide for myself whether I want to invest more in the company.

Think they would be only buying on market so you and that largest shareholder wot be party to the deal

[freddagg]

Think they would be only buying on market so you and that largest shareholder wot be party to the deal

But that's still less cash for dividends so we would both be unhappy parties to the deal

[Raz]

My neighbour says he and his mates down the bowling club cut their losses on HLG when they got their decent dividend and shifted into AIR because of the high yield. Pleased they got the decent dividend a few weeks ago but lamenting a huge capital loss so selling up.

One of the team uses Comvita products and they worked out it is a pretty good investment so apparently whats left of the term deposit money is going into Comvita

Seeking better returns from buying high yield stocks not working for these guys - i refuse to get involved, might lead them up the garden path.

I have heard this similar story so many times from so many people....this is going to screw up so many retirements, although low interest rates had already done half the job.

[Baa_Baa]

My neighbour says he and his mates down the bowling club cut their losses on HLG when they got their decent dividend and shifted into AIR because of the high yield. Pleased they got the decent dividend a few weeks ago but lamenting a huge capital loss so selling up.

One of the team uses Comvita products and they worked out it is a pretty good investment so apparently whats left of the term deposit money is going into Comvita

Seeking better returns from buying high yield stocks not working for these guys - i refuse to get involved, might lead them up the garden path.

What is the lesson Winner? Maybe that AIR is not a good 'investment' share? You should put your mates on the right track.

[Sideshow Bob]

I have heard this similar story so many times from so many people....this is going to screw up so many retirements, although low interest rates had already done half the job.

yeah on the other side of the interest dilemma, their house has well increased in value.

Problem is you can't eat your house!

[Beagle]

Stopped by Auckland airport today seeing as I was nearby anyway. Really filthy weather as one frontal / storm system after another blew in...watched an AIR 777-300 take off into the storm and quickly lost sight of it in the dark and foreboding cloud system. The symbolism wasn't lost on me. Looking forward to better weather ahead but I think some patience will be required and if they can't sell VAH soon it could be a long winter.

[trader_jackson]

Quick Update:
Forsyth smashes price target to $2.30, Rating: neutral

Key drivers for decrease in 12 month price target
- Price-relative valuation – in order to reflect the steep decline in earnings over the next two years.
- Price-to-book multiple reduced to 1.0x - with returns moderating, Forsyth believe a price-to-book of 1.0x is now more appropriate.

Disclosure: not holding a falling knife

[couta1]

That's okay tj, Forsyth have never been the sharpest knife in the brokers drawer:cool:

[mikeybycrikey]

Quick Update:
Forsyth smashes price target to $2.30, Rating: neutral

Key drivers for decrease in 12 month price target
- Price-relative valuation – in order to reflect the steep decline in earnings over the next two years.
- Price-to-book multiple reduced to 1.0x - with returns moderating, Forsyth believe a price-to-book of 1.0x is now more appropriate.

Disclosure: not holding a falling knife

What are their estimates of earnings for the next couple of years to warrant this re-rating?

[Master98]

Quick Update:
Forsyth smashes price target to $2.30, Rating: neutral

Key drivers for decrease in 12 month price target
- Price-relative valuation – in order to reflect the steep decline in earnings over the next two years.
- Price-to-book multiple reduced to 1.0x - with returns moderating, Forsyth believe a price-to-book of 1.0x is now more appropriate.

Disclosure: not holding a falling knife
as i know Forsyth set spark target price $2.8 with negative for years and spark market price stable at $3.7.

Disclosure:hold and no stress.

[winner69]

Morningstar apparently ACCUMULATE with $2.80 value

[Beagle]

That's okay tj, Forsyth have never been the sharpest knife in the brokers drawer:cool:

As a former client I couldn't agree more. Price to book of 1.0 values all their IP at nothing...no other airline I follow is trading at anything like a price to book of 1.0 and AIR are generally very well regarded in the industry as being innovative. So yeah Forbar's research really makes "perfect sense"

[winner69]

Quick Update:
Forsyth smashes price target to $2.30, Rating: neutral

Key drivers for decrease in 12 month price target
- Price-relative valuation – in order to reflect the steep decline in earnings over the next two years.
- Price-to-book multiple reduced to 1.0x - with returns moderating, Forsyth believe a price-to-book of 1.0x is now more appropriate.

Disclosure: not holding a falling knife

t_j the same analyst who has PEB at a $1?

[couta1]

Morningstar apparently ACCUMULATE with $2.80 value Can't believe it, they finally got one right,a good outcome on the Virgin sale will see Forsyth with more egg on their face than an omellete.

[Master98]

Morningstar apparently ACCUMULATE with $2.80 value

LOL, Morningstar is still struggling to value Air.
"A latest recommendation report has not been issued by Morningstar for this stock."

[Joshuatree]

Craigs hve dumped AIR from their high conviction list unfort.Confident about long term strategy but not short term performance and expecting 12-18 months of disruption due to competition before the mkt becomes more rational.Valuation more attractive than ever but on balance momentum against AIR in the short term but believe there is a better exit point than where s/p is currently trading!!?. Covering the field somewhat!. Disclose ;a reluctant holder atp.Awaiting VAH divestment news.

[couta1]

I always walk past Chorus vans when out for a walk which is a constant reminder to me of the difference a couple of years can make to the SP of a stock. Different reasons why CNU got hammered than Air but same principle at work of market irrationality and waiting for a significant event to occur before sanity prevails once again. Difference between the two situations is that in this case you are going to be rewarded with handsome dividends the whole time you are waiting.

[Gringo]

Hi all, first post on ST. Enjoying all the varied views here. I just have a quick question and a couple of comments:

Q: Does the NZX issue "Please Explain" notices like the ASX does? Roger's response from Mr Carter was interesting, but I wonder what management would officially have to say?

Taking a position in AIR last few days... If "Buy in gloom, sell in boom" is a good strategy (providing company fundamentals strong) it looks like buying time for me. Seems 5pm Fridays are best when fear max's out?

Sorry, but these kind of Forsyth Barr valuations posted earlier today seem so useless to me. While they may temp. influence the SP a bit, they're just reactive to the news -like the general financial media. Any untrained chimp could put a lower price target on AIR now - duh! If these analysts were so bright, why couldn't they do that + slap on a SELL a month ago? Has any big new negative info really come to light since then? Anyway I'm a little contrarian, and don't mind going against the AIRflow at current prices. Unfortunately no one rings a bell at the bottom, but I'm building my position now and thinking Mr Market is being a bit irrational here - or if it's an atypical cyclical correction, we're getting close to 6 o'clock. Be greedy when others are fearful? Thanks.

[Beagle]

Welcome to the forum Gringo, nice first post. For certain reasons I can't post all of what Tony Cater and I discussed, (the vast majority of it is on the forum already). I doubled my holding after that conversation. I was a client of Forsyth Barr for many many years and I am no longer a client and have no interest whatsoever in being one again, for reasons I can't go into print with..read into this whatever you feel like. (DYOR, not to be considered a professional advice or a recommendation)

[Joshuatree]

Roger has asked me to delete the post previously here based on opinions rather than something more sinister; fair enough ,i have, but it wasn't a good look and hinted of cronyism which it prob isn't; maybe not put such suggestive info out there Roger that no one else is privy to. Cheers Jt

[Gringo]

Thanks "Guru" Roger. I appreciate the work & insight you (and others) put into your posts. Might be Koru Club soon like you at this rate! :)

[percy]

Stopped by Auckland airport today seeing as I was nearby anyway. Really filthy weather as one frontal / storm system after another blew in...watched an AIR 777-300 take off into the storm and quickly lost sight of it in the dark and foreboding cloud system. The symbolism wasn't lost on me. Looking forward to better weather ahead but I think some patience will be required and if they can't sell VAH soon it could be a long winter.

You should have been jumping with joy at the filthy weather.
Lovely lot of snow now on the Southern Alps.
AIR planes will be filling up with skiers.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Raz]

Welcome to the forum Gringo, nice first post. For certain reasons I can't post all of what Tony Cater and I discussed, (the vast majority of it is on the forum already). I doubled my holding after that conversation. I was a client of Forsyth Barr for many many years and I am no longer a client and have no interest whatsoever in being one again, for reasons I can't go into print with..read into this whatever you feel like. (DYOR, not to be considered a professional advice or a recommendation)

Brokers have a lot to answer for, it was only a few weeks ago competition was in every second headline and VAH divestment intention was announced and none of them reacted..now they reacted with this uncertainly....

[Mista_Trix]

I always walk past Chorus vans when out for a walk which is a constant reminder to me of the difference a couple of years can make to the SP of a stock. Different reasons why CNU got hammered than Air but same principle at work of market irrationality and waiting for a significant event to occur before sanity prevails once again. Difference between the two situations is that in this case you are going to be rewarded with handsome dividends the whole time you are waiting.

You're analogy only tells part of the story, you and I both started on this thread at roughly the same time, and many of us have witnessed your investment journey. I was with you on that CNU ride (and Xero, and Dil and Sum I think from memory).

In CNU you bought in at the top (circa $2.80 to $3.00), and then the downtrend began... and the Div stopped.

I sold out in the change and from memory you stayed in (at least for quite a while, cant remember how long). Many (including myself) waited patiently until buy indicators came back on - I was lucky enough to get back in at $1.51, and rode it back up, selling again at $3.08 (okay, indeed I did miss the top). Anyone who had held during this time would have had their capital locked up for well over a year and a half with no return, and an inability to access it, while those who listened to advice and read some deeper indicators made over 100% gains.

Yes buy regardless of price and hold is a strategy, but hell man, you miss out on some mighty gains. I've seen you take this strategy on multiple stocks now, and through your comments, indirectly encourage others to do the same - "don't worry about it :cool:" seems to be your favourite post, regardless of apparent market changes.

For new posters who don't know how inexperienced some people are, and who get mislead that the size of someones holding equating to their skill as an investor, or their knowledge in a sector also equating to their skill as an investor. Take the "don't worry about it" as a warning. It shows an inability to listen to others, or take in to account changes in market trends. Ok, a company may look sound on paper, that doesn't necessarily equate to a strong share price, especially when a trend changes and a stock falls out of favour with the market (couta is right about that part).

I don't really know what my point is, but to recently new investors - and there are many on the forums of late. Watch out for people with fingers in their ears. And listen to the skeptics - at the very least for a balanced view. There's repeated bad decisions (over years even) being made by some investors and they're taking a chunk of other posters down with them due to the size of their holding and how frequently they post.

[Beagle]

You should have been jumping with joy at the filthy weather.
Lovely lot of snow now on the Southern Alps.
AIR planes will be filling up with skiers.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

First night flight into Queenstown tonight Percy. Nice timing. Agreed 100% Raz.

[Beagle]

Brokers have a lot to answer for, it was only a few weeks ago competition was in every second headline and VAH divestment intention was announced and none of them reacted..now they reacted with this uncertainly....

QAN have got heaps of extra competition coming too and are earning at the same rate as AIR. Consensus broker valuation of QAN $4.49 but according to the analyst at Forbar AIR are worth $2.30.
I'm feeling a little afraid to revalue my portfolio at present...got a Tui you could lend me for lunch :) Wonder if Forbar even realise that AIR have bought back their shares before at under NTA ?

[Biscuit]

Taking a position in AIR last few days... Be greedy when others are fearful? . Can be a good strategy but also a test of character. Greed more easily felt when watching the price of shares other people own and fear more easily felt when watching the price of shares you own.

[couta1]

Mista Trix the posters new investors have to worry about the most are the ones that never share any mistakes and those with ulterior motives not the consistently honest. PS-Its more a matter of once having bought at what you thought was a fair price at the time and then seeing the price hammered, you then have two choices,sell for a large loss (If your holding a large number) or be patient and wait for the price to come back as I have learnt it does in the majority of cases. Of course it isn't easy and too much for some, ive learnt not to look at my portfolio total during these times(It serves no positive purpose)

[Nasi Goreng]

. Can be a good strategy but also a test of character. Greed more easily felt when watching the price of shares other people own and fear more easily felt when watching the price of shares you own.

I totally get that, I've got a reasonable size position which I have been comfortable with but days like today test that theory in a big way. You never thought $2 was possible so now you decide to take the hit and the charts start to make $1.50 look possible. Sometimes it is the capitulation day which gets many feel like this and I'm wondering if today is capitulation day. You would have to think a lot of the selling is leveraged buyers who are getting margin calls.

[bull....]

looks like fast descend from that nasty double top formation. more turbulance ahead folks

[Raz]

First night flight into Queenstown tonight Percy. Nice timing. Agreed 100% Raz.

Demand into Queenstown must be sky high as a consequence of demand as my cousin from Melbourne who always come over to ski several times over the season into Queenstown wants to visit me in Canterbury over winter instead and use us as a base.... says the flights are just too pricey.

[mikeybycrikey]

Big drop today. Is there something I'm missing here or is this just because of the Forsyth downgrade?

Surely anyone selling today because of the Forsyth downgrade is chasing last week's news. If they have re-rated to $2.30 and we're already at close to $2 this has well overshot their target.

Interesting times!

[bobxia]

AIR still looks correlated to the oil price.
8058

[Raz]

Big drop today. Is there something I'm missing here or is this just because of the Forsyth downgrade?

Surely anyone selling today because of the Forsyth downgrade is chasing last week's news. If they have re-rated to $2.30 and we're already at close to $2 this has well overshot their target.

Interesting times!

Who mentioned NTA level the other day? Yes it is just looking sick...broker commission churn?

[Gringo]

Couta1 said: "PS-Its more a matter of once having bought at what you thought was a fair price at the time and then seeing the price hammered, you then have two choices, sell for a large loss (If your holding a large number) or be patient and wait for the price to come back..."

Or 3rd choice: Buy some more at disciplined stages (say, 10% new lows) to lower you average BP, and hope (in the absence of any real new or big problems affecting the company) the falling sword hits the ground soon!!

[winner69]

Post lunch recovery - won't be sub $2 today

[Beagle]

People HATE an extremely turbulent flight and FEAR is now driving the SP. I think we are seeing some people taking the escape Shute that simply cannot stand the turbulence.

I'm going to have some nice calming herbal tea with my lunch...

[couta1]

Who mentioned NTA level the other day? Yes it is just looking sick...broker commission churn? Forsyth never intended to make any money from their price downgrade, yeah right.

[Speculator]

Popping my ST cherry here.
Recently bought in for my first stint in the share market.
Thrown into the mix very quickly with this current AIR situation.

Us newcomers very much appreciate the explanations by the more experienced members from both sides of opinion not just the reassuring ones.
No valuable information from me, just a post of appreciation for the discussion.

[stoploss]

Popping my ST cherry here.
Recently bought in for my first stint in the share market.
Thrown into the mix very quickly with this current AIR situation.

Us newcomers very much appreciate the explanations by the more experienced members from both sides of opinion not just the reassuring ones.
No valuable information from me, just a post of appreciation for the discussion.

Love your Moniker, " Got to speculate to accumulate " welcome aboard , all the best out there ...buckle up this ride might be a bumpy one !

[Sideshow Bob]

Demand into Queenstown must be sky high as a consequence of demand as my cousin from Melbourne who always come over to ski several times over the season into Queenstown wants to visit me in Canterbury over winter instead and use us as a base.... says the flights are just too pricey.

Not just the flights are expensive but everything else. Accommodation is at a premium - I wonder if the cheap packages they use to do for Aussies are not so cheap now?

Snow on the hills today and snowmaking already - Cardies opens in 19 days.....

[Sideshow Bob]

That's okay tj, Forsyth have never been the sharpest knife in the brokers drawer:cool:

Many years ago at uni......we did an assignment/presentation on a listed company for one of the classes. Of course we (wisely) chose AIR, which was great because of the quality of the investor info. However for our presentation they invited a couple of FB Brokers along. We'd like to think it was us, but FB's outlook on AIR changed to the same as ours, about 3 days afterwards! :cool:

The only problem is we were both wrong! :t_down:

[workingdad]

I bought back in last week and obviously that isn't paying off just at the moment. Thought about selling again and trying to time it better but I do wonder how it would feel to sell today with intentions of buying in again in a weeks time only to have an announcement VAH sold and special divy coming only to miss the boat.
It's hard seeing the value erode and still tell myself fundamentals but like CEN 6 months ago when it was $4.40 sentiment doesn't last forever. Decisions decisions

[macduffy]

Do any of you AIRmen ever look at charts? AIR has been and is in a steep downturn. Not a time to buy until that reverses, however tempting it might appear!

[smtrader]

8059... from what i see, the people who depended on charting, saw a resistance around 2.25 and once that broke out lower, they starting selling... now look its pulling back.. look at the buy orders trumping the sizes of sells.... what do you guys think is going to happen next?

[couta1]

8059... from what i see, the people who depended on charting, saw a resistance around 2.25 and once that broke out lower, they starting selling... now look its pulling back.. look at the buy orders trumping the sizes of sells.... what do you guys think is going to happen next? The Aircoaster is unpredictable, toss a coin.

[winner69]

Post lunch recovery - won't be sub $2 today


Nearly 4% up from its mid morning low - thats good

[BIRMANBOY]

This has had so many DCB its running out of lives. But one will surely be the real deal...
Nearly 4% up from its mid morning low - thats good

[smtrader]

This has had so many DCB its running out of lives. But one will surely be the real deal...

yup already seeing gaps in buy pricing and some sellers with huge amounts coming out the woodworks now.. the best guess i have it will land between 205-210 by end of day

[workingdad]

Well Auckland to Wellington flight this morning 90% full. Koru lounge Wellington now as busy as I have ever seen. While I understand charts are down rather heavily AIR business is good meaning they are making money. Isn't that the value of a company?

[couta1]

Well Auckland to Wellington flight this morning 90% full. Koru lounge Wellington now as busy as I have ever seen. While I understand charts are down rather heavily AIR business is good meaning they are making money. Isn't that the value of a company? wd as you know Air is a fundamentally sound business that has the Govt as a majority shareholder and has been flying the skies for 75yrs now. A busy winter season coming up to look forward to so nothing's changed in terms of it being an ongoing profitable company, are you in for the long haul now or for a short ride as you were a while back?

[Beagle]

They turned 76 years old on 30 April 2016 mate. I am certain they will still be flying long after we're pushing up daisy's.

[workingdad]

wd as you know Air is a fundamentally sound business that has the Govt as a majority shareholder and has been flying the skies for 75yrs now. A busy winter season coming up to look forward to so nothing's changed in terms of it being an ongoing profitable company, are you in for the long haul now or for a short ride as you were a while back?

Just a day trip. Trying to subsidise some of the loses on SP with some brownies and coffee ;)

[workingdad]

Haha. Just realized you meant shares. Long day....
Long haul I guess as I can see some good divys over the next couple of years.
I only bought back in half of what I had and thinking about the other half when it feels right. Problem is my thoughts on when is right hasn't been very sound this last few weeks on AIR

[smtrader]

With oil prices only going up from here on, wouldn't that decrease AIRs profits

[stoploss]

With oil prices only going up from here on, wouldn't that decrease AIRs profits

Take some time to read this
http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/fuel-hedging-announcements
Also as Roger has pointed out if you read some of his very informative posts , AIR.NZ have a very fuel efficient fleet . So maybe it will cost them more but other airline margins depending on hedging may be hurt more with a rise in price of av gas. Probably only Emirates be ok as I presume they get it all for free....

[workingdad]

With oil prices only going up from here on, wouldn't that decrease AIRs profits

Yes but by historical standards and comparing AIRs fuel pricing over the last couple of years they are still well positioned to make a profit. There's negatives and positives that have been discussed recently in the thread, competition vs tourism growth, fuel prices vs newer more economical fleet. Relative to SP do they not seem below fair value?
Compare say sky tv. Outlook gloomy with decreasing customer base and increased competition of the digital age yet SP not taking the hit AIR has.
I understand the rationale of charts and irrational market sentiment freaking and some cutting out for losses but hope my thoughts of a turn around is on the cards. Perhaps when VAH is sorted the tide will turn dramatically. Maybe not but no one can say with any certainty the way a SP will behave. AIR could just as easily go up one day as opposed to down....

[Gringo]

First day on ST... could someone please tell me how to post a quote from someone's earlier post so it shows up in the blue box like above. Can't seem to find the answer, thanks!

[Master98]

First day on ST... could someone please tell me how to post a quote from someone's earlier post so it shows up in the blue box like above. Can't seem to find the answer, thanks!
Click "Replay With Quote" under the post

[Baa_Baa]

... from what i see, the people who depended on charting, saw a resistance around 2.25 and once that broke out lower, they starting selling... now look its pulling back.. look at the buy orders trumping the sizes of sells.... what do you guys think is going to happen next?

There lots more happened than just that, I don't think you can lump all chartists into one group and generalise that they all got out at one point. Some move very quickly, others more slowly and some even quite sedately depending on their strategy, but the generalism that might be true is that few chartists would still be holding.

Here's a few things chartists might have been looking at: firstly the turn away at $3.00 was an alert. Next the 50EMA broke down $2.90. Then the 100MA quickly after that $2.87. The 200MA is a popular average it broke down at $2.78 and that co-incided with the medium term up-trend line support breakdown AND an important chart pattern breakdown. I think most TA's would have at least lightened up there if they hadn't already unloaded some. These by the way were all being discussed either here or the "Using TA to time entries and exits" thread. The $2.56 support folded easily and the $2.35 offered some support but broke down, which also coincided with the 4-year rising support bull trend line break down! Then for the diehards there was the $2.25-$2.28 supports from 2014 but they broke down as well.

Right now AIR looks like it has bounced off $2.05 but there's nothing in the price chart that suggests this is real support, more like bargain hunters maybe. No chartist would buy it until a bottom is confirmed with a new up trend.

As for your picture of the bid/ask queues ad observation, have you considered that the clever brokers and traders use the bid/ask queue to 'paint a picture' with props on the bid side and caps on the ask side, to make it look like they want it to, but not necessarily ever intending to buy or sell. This is common, to move the market towards their real buy or sell prices.

[Gringo]

Do any of you AIRmen ever look at charts? AIR has been and is in a steep downturn. Not a time to buy until that reverses, however tempting it might appear!

I wonder if some of the TA chartists here would tell us (no responsibility assumed - just out of interest) when will be the time to buy AIR: when the downturn has reversed, bottom confirmed, and uptrend confirmed. Thanks

[BIRMANBOY]

OH HAH HAH HAH if only that were the case Senor....when the tamales cross the burritos and the enchiladas are ready ...That's the time to buy. And not a minute sooner.
I wonder if some of the TA chartists here would tell us (no responsibility assumed - just out of interest) when would be the time to buy: when the downturn has reversed, and uptrend confirmed. Thanks

[Snow Leopard]

I wonder if some of the TA chartists here would tell us (no responsibility assumed - just out of interest) when will be the time to buy AIR: when the downturn has reversed, bottom confirmed, and uptrend confirmed. Thanks


(posted: 22-09-2004)I have said it before and I will say it again [in differt words].

Playing with Air New Zealand stocks is for the brave and the foolhardy only. The risks are high and the rewards low.

Might have said essentially the same thing once or twice since then.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots, but there are no old, bold pilots

[Gringo]

Haha, good one Birmanboy! Will keep that in mind ;)

[Xerof]

when will be the time to buy AIR?: when the downturn has reversed, bottom confirmed, and uptrend confirmed.

You have answered your own question

[Beagle]

With oil prices only going up from here on, wouldn't that decrease AIRs profits

Nobody has been able to predict oil prices reliably. Oil prices, yield and competition are in my opinion in many ways inextricably linked. I don't think the low oil price will do any favours to AIR in the medium term as competition has heated up and yields have come under some pressure with more to come.

In the medium term I think an oil price of about U.S.$70-80 barrel would be better for AIR's sustainable across the cycle earnings as that would enable them to take maximum advantage of their competitive advantage of having a very young and fuel efficient fleet as compared to the industry average, (expected fleet age 6.2 years by FY19, average industry fleet age 9.9 years, source AIR investor day briefing and IATA aircraft data).

[Gringo]

You have answered your own question

But Xerof, how long do we wait uptrending before pressing the button? To be sure it's not just a temp. correction or dead cat bounce?

[Joshuatree]

But Xerof, how long do we wait uptrending before pressing the button?

Reminds me of the most common question at the Farewell Spit Doc Whale Centre. "Hallo ; what time is the next whale stranding please and thank you very much?

[Snow Leopard]

But Xerof, how long do we wait uptrending before pressing the button? To be sure it's not just a temp. correction or dead cat bounce?

Do not rely on someone else telling you when to get on the flight because you can not rely on them to tell you when to get off.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[couta1]

But Xerof, how long do we wait uptrending before pressing the button? To be sure it's not just a temp. correction or dead cat bounce? You have 3 options 1. Use BBs method above. 2. Try tossing a coin if you don't like mexican food (Probably unlikely with your name) or 3. Wait for an announcement on the Virgin sale.:cool:

[mshierlaw]

I have said it before and I will say it again [in differt words].

Playing with Air New Zealand stocks is for the brave and the foolhardy only. The risks are high and the rewards low.

When I started buying shares a workmates quoted Bob Jones, "never buy retail, hotel or airline".

Despite being tempted by AIR the above advice keeps nagging me. Don't think I'm skilled enough to suceed here.

[rayonline]

let's see if it a date finishes settling under $2.00. And later this year eventually hit $1.75? Haha.

[ohpark0119]

what platform is that?


8059... from what i see, the people who depended on charting, saw a resistance around 2.25 and once that broke out lower, they starting selling... now look its pulling back.. look at the buy orders trumping the sizes of sells.... what do you guys think is going to happen next?

[Fox]

what platform is that?

https://iguana2.com/spark

[ohpark0119]

Thank you sir/madam
https://iguana2.com/spark

[smtrader]

when the tamales cross the burritos and the enchiladas are ready ...That's the time to buy. And not a minute sooner.

hahahaha nice one Birmanboy and thanks for a great website - have been using it for a couple years.

Baa Baa
I only use fundamentals for most my portfolio, but charts gives me insight at what chartists think they are making of it and what they're going to do.. most of it in my opinion is a self fulfilling since the proliferation of the info about it online.. and i agree with your view on the depth.. which is also why i view it, to get insight of what some are trying to do and how they might be trying to manipulate the market.. having said that though, i only do that when i am trying to be in and out the same day (my betting/gambling portion).. most my portfolio is split between long term and dividend yield.

[Sideshow Bob]

US based but an interesting article

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=11643475

[peat]

US based but an interesting article

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=11643475

its very true
i worked in Air NZ's finance dept and saw all the business units p + l's.
They turn on a dime

[winner69]

My pretty looking Point & Figure Chart is looking very sad at the moment - hopefully won't need to change the axis limits soon (downwards)

The latest column is one long red one of O's - and it has well and truly stuffed up what was a nice looking chart

[Nasi Goreng]

My pretty looking Point & Figure Chart is looking very sad at the moment - hopefully won't need to change the axis limits soon (downwards)

The latest column is one long red one of O's - and it has well and truly stuffed up what was a nice looking chart

Do you draw your P&F chart yourself? I used to do it for certain stocks but you got to keep at it.

[winner69]

Do you draw your P&F chart yourself? I used to do it for certain stocks but you got to keep at it.

There's a neat ipad app that keeps them up to date - only a few bucks

I do the odd one by hand - more from an artistic point of view than anything else

Great charts - eliminates a lot of the noise around the share price. The AIR one for the last 12 months has only 10 columns and has been pretty reliable to monitor the few trades I have made

[Beagle]

After Forbar's "interesting" recent revision consensus broker price target is now $2.70.

http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/

Interestingly consensus forecast net asset backing on 30 June 2017 is $2.29 per share and consensus fully imputed dividends between now and then are 21.8 cps (21.8 / 0.72) = 30.3 cps gross = 14% gross plus possible special from sale of VAH. I think its unlikely once the uncertainty of VAH is resolved one way or the other that the shares will be trading under NTA in a year's time and in the meantime we're being paid handsomely to be patient while we wait for smoother flight conditions. Almost everyone hates extreme turbulence but I for one will stay buckled up and on board.
(DYOR, Not to be considered a recommendation or professional advice)

[winner69]

Good start to the day share price wise

Back to the 220's today/tomorrow

[winner69]

I am always intrigued how line tracking the consensus target prices over time sort of follow the direction of the share price share (bearing in mind target prices are always more than actual)

Appears as if analysts are more reactive to what the share price does - rather than influencing the direction. That's how I see it anyway.

Just confrms its how insto's feel that matter - not analysts

Prob means they have no udea whats happening - including that unnamed analyst who said Air management wouldn't be any better than any other airline in forecasting the future.

Chart. http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/consensus/

[winner69]

.......and the analyst with the low number has been the most 'accurate' v actual price

http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/consensus/

[winner69]

AIR killing me in Stocktastic

Mind you being 26% down isn't the worst pick, VML takes that position

[Baa_Baa]

AIR killing me in Stocktastic

Mind you being 26% down isn't the worst pick, VML takes that position

Choosing the Dogs of the NZX is a risky play. Lol ;)

[sb9]

AIR killing me in Stocktastic

Mind you being 26% down isn't the worst pick, VML takes that position

Looks like the knives are out with late afternoon weakness and its not even Friday yet...

[percy]

Choosing the Dogs of the NZX is a risky play. Lol ;)

I just picked my 5 largest holdings.Up 23.5%.
I remain "well positioned."..lol.

[smtrader]

8062
there is no more space on the chart.. its going to drop out of the monitor in a minute

[Baa_Baa]

there is no more space on the chart.. its going to drop out of the monitor in a minute

You better not zoom out to the 3-5 year view or you'll see that there's a ton of space on the chart below here :scared:

[couta1]

8062
there is no more space on the chart.. its going to drop out of the monitor in a minute Just another day in the life of the Aircoaster, climbs still under construction.

[macduffy]

Just another day in the life of the Aircoaster, climbs still under construction.

......as evidenced by AIR's RS Index - at its lowest since late 2011.

[winner69]

......as evidenced by AIR's RS Index - at its lowest since late 2011.

Thats a good sign isn't it?

[couta1]

Thats a good sign isn't it? Don't forget that Index has a zero baseline so not there yet.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

AIR looking incredibly weak and yet to give any signal that it is time for re-entry. AIR is now in a bear cycle, which is usually characterised by big drops, followed by ~25% rallies, before dropping further. My trading plan is to look for ~180 (a major support area) entry on capitulation, with the hope of a dead cat bounce to~225 region over the course of several weeks. High risk play.

[Gringo]

Cool... 180 will yield buyers a juicy 10.8% (at least for a couple of years?), not counting a Virgin bonus, so that'll be very nice :) :) :)

[couta1]

AIR looking incredibly weak and yet to give any signal that it is time for re-entry. AIR is now in a bear cycle, which is usually characterised by big drops, followed by ~25% rallies, before dropping further. My trading plan is to look for ~180 (a major support area) entry on capitulation, with the hope of a dead cat bounce to~225 region over the course of several weeks. High risk play. Funny how one person's High risk play would be considered by others as a Low risk play.

[Beagle]

Funny how one person's High risk play would be considered by others as a Low risk play.

Stock fished the day right on its projected NTA level as at 30 June 2016. Company has bought back shares before when at a discount to NTA and has well over $1b in cash.

Last time I checked QAN are trading at 1.7x NTA, Delta 2.25x NTA, American Airlines 3.25x NTA to name three I follow. All trading on 2016 PE's of late 5's to late 6's and AIR is now 3.7 times FY16 earnings.

I know any investment in any airline is high risk but there's high risk and then there's cheap as chips which ameliorates some of the risk.

(Disc Holding, DYOR, not to be considered professional advice or a recommendation)

[workingdad]

Stock fished the day right on its projected NTA level as at 30 June 2016. Company has bought back shares before when at a discount to NTA and has well over $1b in cash.

Last time I checked QAN are trading at 1.7x NTA, Delta 2.25x NTA, American Airlines 3.25x NTA to name three I follow. All trading on 2016 PE's of late 5's to late 6's and AIR is now 3.7 times FY16 earnings.

I know any investment in any airline is high risk but there's high risk and then there's cheap as chips which ameliorates some of the risk.

(Disc Holding, DYOR, not to be considered professional advice or a recommendation)

I am stunned at the SP at present, there's drops and then there's drops. Sentiment is ugly plan and simple but its not based on fundamentals, I am looking at buying the other half of the holding I had and nearly did so today but just not sure it wont go below the $2 mark at sometime and my timing thus far has been far from ideal. Even if they shake the VAH monkey on the back I am wondering if that wont even put a stop to it. Sellers dictate the price of any share and there doesn't seem a shortage of them at this level....

Forgot to mention, coming back from Wellington the flight was again 90% full. The koru lounge emptied out quite a bit when the koru hour flight was boarding but I was on the next one so had some additional time to kill but from what I saw there were no shortage of travellers.

[couta1]

wd I look at the current SP as completely irrational and ridiculous and leave it at that in my mind, kinda like if Briscoes announced that they were going to have a sale of all their stock at their cost price.

[workingdad]

wd I look at the current SP as completely irrational and ridiculous and leave it at that in my mind, kinda like if Briscoes announced that they were going to have a sale of all their stock at their cost price.

Some decent volume in after market trading pushed it back to 2.08 so no shortage of bargain hunters either. I think these shares will be parked in the draw for a while and hope they recover before the kids need braces and the divvy's stay solid :mellow:

[Ggcc]

Anyone keen to catch the falling knife.....? It is looking tempting, but it keeps dropping

[vin]

To be honest I am shocked at the SP decline. Would love a crystal ball to see where this goes 12 months from now.

[stoploss]

To be honest I am shocked at the SP decline. Would love a crystal ball to see where this goes 12 months from now.

Fire up the DeLorean ......

[winner69]

To be honest I am shocked at the SP decline. Would love a crystal ball to see where this goes 12 months from now.

Maybe this is playing out

I just can't get it out of my mind - how true cyclicals perform as they have a mind of their own, irrespective of fundamnetals

Note I haven't updated the actual line - stops at 280 here

[vin]

^ Umm, that is scary.

[sb9]

To be honest, have been contemplating jumping on board again ever since it fell into 220s range, but just wasn't brave enough...might stay away for now. Flying conditions seem to be too turbulent at the moment :eek2:

[couta1]

^ Umm, that is scary. Just look at it like this, if it happens you get to collect around 8 years of divvies while you wait for a recycle to peak again.:cool:

[ohpark0119]

just pretty scary slumping down to 205 but then again, it seemed to support at ~205. I could see the volume increasing exponentially lol

[macduffy]

Thats a good sign isn't it?

Might be, winner. When it turns to up!

[Beagle]

I think anyone holding is probably pretty stunned by the speed and severity of the SP decline and I know all of AIR management are as of last Thursday afternoon when I spoke with Tony Carter and the price then was $2.27, only 3 1/2 trading days ago. Can't help wondering that they're thinking now. Things could get interesting if the NZX did a price enquiry couldn't they !

[winner69]

I think anyone holding is probably pretty stunned by the speed and severity of the SP decline and I know all of AIR management are as of last Thursday afternoon when I spoke with Tony Carter and the price then was $2.27, only 3 1/2 trading days ago. Can't help wondering that they're thinking now. Things could get interesting if the NZX did a price enquiry couldn't they !

Management got their timing right with all those share sales - even if that timing was rather fortuitous and not really within their control.

[couta1]

Management got their timing right with all those share sales - even if that timing was rather fortuitous and not really within their control. What a great Tui billboard mate, you'd had better send that one in.

[Baa_Baa]

Management sellers would still rank amongst the retailers.

Whose monitoring the T20 to see where the real volume is coming from; ask and bid?

There's way too much volume for this to be the minnows, besides they probably exhausted now and the big money is shifting positions.

Find out who this is selling, then figure out how low they'll go (based on when they bought in). Plenty of profit still to be had, it was .85 in 2012.

Dyor
BAA

[winner69]

Management sellers would still rank amongst the retailers.

Whose monitoring the T20 to see where the real volume is coming from; ask and bid?

There's way too much volume for this to be the minnows, besides they probably exhausted now and the big money is shifting positions.

Find out who this is selling, then figure out how low they'll go (based on when they bought in). Plenty of profit still to be had, it was .85 in 2012.

Dyor
BAA

...and the instos took heaps at 165 when govt sold down

[smtrader]

just pretty scary slumping down to 205 but then again, it seemed to support at ~205. I could see the volume increasing exponentially lol

There isn't that much volume there, yes it's probably the most in all open orders but if you look at the details its only 2 big orders and a few small ones.. the whole 205 parcel is not much at all in comparison to traded parcels... the big orders were put on yesterday when the SP was at 220 (were at 220 there was 6 times the level of open orders in comparison to 205)

I say there is still some more room for it to go down

[see weed]

Management sellers would still rank amongst the retailers.

Whose monitoring the T20 to see where the real volume is coming from; ask and bid?

There's way too much volume for this to be the minnows, besides they probably exhausted now and the big money is shifting positions.

Find out who this is selling, then figure out how low they'll go (based on when they bought in). Plenty of profit still to be had, it was .85 in 2012.

Dyor
BAA
Been there done that. Flew this thing down from $1.13 down to 0.845c from June 2011 to 6/6/12. A long drawn out flight over a year, then it took off, but then left the flight too early at $1.30s. This fall in the last few weeks is different, it's fast. To fast for me:ohmy:.

[smtrader]

Been there done that. Flew this thing down from $1.13 down to 0.845c from June 2011 to 6/6/12. A long drawn out flight over a year, then it took off, but then left the flight too early at $1.30s. This fall in the last few weeks is different, it's fast. To fast for me:ohmy:.

Hate to say it but looks like the flight is heading towards 1.75 to 1.90... prospects of interest rate rises in the US (or the perception of it) is likely going to see more funds leaving NZX for now..

[winner69]

^XAL up strongly overnight - points to good day for AIR

No sub $2 this week smtrader

[Jaa]

Another monopoly route falls, with Hong Kong Airlines coming in hard and fast with a daily A332 between HK and AKL from November.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11639127

[dobby41]

That's the problem with low fuel prices - everyone can make a profit (or have a much better go at it) where it was marginal before.
That coupled with all the noise about NZ tourism.

[stoploss]

Another monopoly route falls, with Hong Kong Airlines coming in hard and fast with a daily A332 between HK and AKL from November.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11639127
Probably the wrong thread . But how long till landing slots at AIA become an issue ?

[Jay]

Do the NZX issue "please explain" notices on declines . AIR must qualify??

Seat belt tightly fastened.

[Raz]

That's the problem with low fuel prices - everyone can make a profit (or have a much better go at it) where it was marginal before.
That coupled with all the noise about NZ tourism.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11643974

Will it just end up being noise...just shows how short we are on infrastructure to take the talked about growth.

[Beagle]

http://www.skyscanner.co.nz/news/which-airlines-offer-the-best-economy-classes-from-new-zealand?associateid=PCP_TRA_00137_00007&utm_source=outbrain&utm_medium=paid%2Bcontent%2Bpromotion&utm_campaign=nz-travel-pp&utm_term=5363985

[winner69]

Think we have takeoff - share price wise

Wednesday after lunch usually pretty good - esp when the world is happy again

[couta1]

Think we have takeoff - share price wise

Wednesday after lunch usually pretty good - esp when the world is happy again No quick fix here mate, too many sellers lurking in the shadows.

[macduffy]

QAN isn't AIR, but the AFR reckons the former's shareprice fall has some way to go - for what that's worth.

[Beagle]

They probably had a look at AIR's SP and then worked out they have the same forecasted EPS this year. Today's lack of bounce on stronger overseas markets and airline index is the next chapter in a series of disappointments with this company.

[Nasi Goreng]

30 trading days since recent high and only 5 green candles during that time (last 10 days have all been down). I think it goes lower from here and I'm sticking to my theory we will get a rebound on day 34 which is next Monday.

[sb9]

Wow that 205 line wiped out in no time...not looking great I'm afraid.

[boysy]

Traders paradise up early in the morning and then tanking after lunch for the last few trading days. Like clockwork in fact.

[couta1]

Traders paradise up early in the morning and then tanking after lunch for the last few trading days. Like clockwork in fact. Insto's loading their guns after lunch is the name of the game here.

[smtrader]

Wow that 205 line wiped out in no time...not looking great I'm afraid.

Yup as said earlier.. and i don't think much should be said about the 200 wall either..... usually traders like round figures like 200.. it might resist but chances so far looking like it will break that wall too... the nasty ride will start then im afraid.. buckle up

[Fox]

Backdating to the last cycle pre-GFC pricing, we can see a similair occurrence with psychological barriers at $2. Pretty much confirmed that a bear cycle was established after crossing the 200 day MA and support levels with large volume not too long ago, again repeating the cycle back in late 2007. Thought I might post this simple chart up for a few readers, not considered to be any TA advice or anything, just more interesting than anything else.

http://puu.sh/p4ab0/813e44e714.png

[axe]

Yes looks like AIR is going through whatever happened in 2007/8 all over again. Can any of the old timers on here recall what was going on in 2007 that caused AIR SP to fall off a cliff like it is doing now? Maybe there is some similar factors between now and 2007/8?

[Beagle]

Backdating to the last cycle pre-GFC pricing, we can see a similair occurrence with psychological barriers at $2. Pretty much confirmed that a bear cycle was established after crossing the 200 day MA and support levels with large volume not too long ago, again repeating the cycle back in late 2007. Thought I might post this simple chart up for a few readers, not considered to be any TA advice or anything, just more interesting than anything else.

http://puu.sh/p4ab0/813e44e714.png

Thanks. Seems like as far as AIR is concerned the market thinks we are heading for another GFC...this one specific to AIR and other airlines are apparently mostly exempt. Go figure ?

Maybe there has been some serious loss of reputation because of those management share sales, institutions lost some confidence in the veracity of management and directors ?

[Balance]

Thanks. Seems like as far as AIR is concerned the market thinks we are heading for another GFC...this one specific to AIR and other airlines are apparently mostly exempt. Go figure ?

Maybe there has been some serious loss of reputation because of those management share sales, institutions lost some confidence in the veracity of management and directors ?

The price action suggests a very big institutional seller out there (Sterling Grace?) trying to sell its Air NZ stake and being played by other institutions to cross the line at say $2.00.

Waiting for the really big crossing.

[Bobdn]

Never (paper) lost so much money so quickly, not even with Chorus. For those AIR holders who ever wanted to know what it felt like to be a Chorus holder during the bad times, wonder no more.

Fortunately AIR is 4% of my portfolio. Chorus was 50%. I learnt my lesson.

[ohpark0119]

shiver me timbers

[Baa_Baa]

The price action suggests a very big institutional seller out there (Sterling Grace?) trying to sell its Air NZ stake and being played by other institutions to cross the line at say $2.00.

Waiting for the really big crossing.

Sure looks like it. I asked last night whether anyone monitors the Top 20, they would know who in the big league (if any) are the net buyers and sellers. Didn't get any replies though.

[Snow Leopard]

Sure looks like it. I asked last night whether anyone monitors the Top 20, they would know who in the big league (if any) are the net buyers and sellers. Didn't get any replies though.

There you go: http://nztop40.co.nz/chart/nzalbums

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[cyclist]

The price action suggests a very big institutional seller out there (Sterling Grace?) trying to sell its Air NZ stake and being played by other institutions to cross the line at say $2.00.

Waiting for the really big crossing.

Hi Balance

For the uninitiated such as me, are you able to expand on what you mean by the bolded bits a bit more. (I understand you are expressing a hunch, rather than making a statement of certain fact. But would like to understand it a bit more). Thanks.

[winner69]

There you go: http://nztop40.co.nz/chart/nzalbums

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Gray Bartlett at #7 - what can one say

Air NZ need to use Gray in their next safety video

Wouldn't be any more ridiculous than the recent ones - what a waste of time. Last flight i caught the pilot got bored waiting for it to finish and taxied off down the runway - naughty

[Rosco]

Any whiskey drinkers here with recommendations on a good scotch?

disc: I tried to catch the knife (twice) but it seems to no avail *gulp*

[biker]

Any whiskey drinkers here with recommendations on a good scotch?

disc: I tried to catch the knife (twice) but it seems to no avail *gulp*

A double shot of patience with a buy-more chaser??

[Balance]

Hi Balance

For the uninitiated such as me, are you able to expand on what you mean by the bolded bits a bit more. (I understand you are expressing a hunch, rather than making a statement of certain fact. But would like to understand it a bit more). Thanks.

When institutions with Air NZ shares are approached to see if they are interested in participating in a selldown of a big line of shares (say, 50m shares) by a large holder, some of these institutions will start selling down their own shares - driving down the sp to get the shares cheaper, fully knowing that they will get the shares they sell back at a cheaper price. That's how the game is played.

[Onion]

disc: I tried to catch the knife (twice) but it seems to no avail *gulp*

The plastic knives used by the airlines can still hurt when they fly around the cabin during turbulence.

I tried catching some when the SP was 2.65 - still hurting!

[Leftfield]

A double shot of patience with a buy-more chaser??

I like that saying (attributed to Buffett);

"the share market is a mechanism whereby money is transferred from the impatient to the patient."

[cyclist]

When institutions with Air NZ shares are approached to see if they are interested in participating in a selldown of a big line of shares (say, 50m shares) by a large holder, some of these institutions will start selling down their own shares - driving down the sp to get the shares cheaper, fully knowing that they will get the shares they sell back at a cheaper price. That's how the game is played.

Thanks. Makes sense.

[couta1]

Never (paper) lost so much money so quickly, not even with Chorus. For those AIR holders who ever wanted to know what it felt like to be a Chorus holder during the bad times, wonder no more.

Fortunately AIR is 4% of my portfolio. Chorus was 50%. I learnt my lesson. I'm not wondering, it's back to the future Mk2. PS-Currently down 85k on my holding (Thought it might help some to feel better)

[workingdad]

150.000 traded at 2.02 on closing. Will tomorrow bring sub $2 or perhaps the Friday afternoon session.
If it goes below that $2 psychological barrier are we in for another sharp drop....

[IAK]

I'm not wondering, it's back to the future Mk2. PS-Currently down 85k on my holding (Thought it might help some to feel better)

Thanks Couta, at least you've still got your sense of humour.

[Bobdn]

Hope it's not mark 2 Couta. Seriously, doesn't really feel the same. Oil is super low still, tourism is booming and really importantly I'm sure you and I don't need the money we've invested in AIR anytime soon.

[couta1]

Hope it's not mark 2 Couta. Seriously, doesn't really feel the same. Oil is super low still, tourism is booming and really importantly I'm sure you and I don't need the money we've invested in AIR anytime soon. Your right, money not needed for many years.

[winner69]

AIR still above its 1000MA ...and well positioned

[winner69]

30 trading days since recent high and only 5 green candles during that time (last 10 days have all been down). I think it goes lower from here and I'm sticking to my theory we will get a rebound on day 34 which is next Monday.

And the red candles seem to be getting longer as well

[workingdad]

And the red candles seem to be getting longer as well

Yep. 2.10 to 2.02 isn't exactly confidence building

[Baa_Baa]

AIR still above its 1000MA ...and well positioned

Just above the 1000 day MA at 2.038 :scared:

[Baa_Baa]

Trivia Stats:



Trades


487





Value


$ 5,160,896





Volume


2,514,006





Over $100k


3





Overall Avg


$ 18,590





Median


$ 4,789





High


$ 790,833





Low


$ 57
















After 5pm









Value


$ 1,179,121

23%


Volume


577,618






Apart from the last trade of the day of $790,833 at 5:11pm $2.052, most of it looks like retail sized parcels. Only two others above $100k, one at the open.

[winner69]

That after close trade at 205.2 look like it was one of those special deals where the days VWAP becomes the agreed price

[Baa_Baa]

That after close trade at 205.2 look like it was one of those special deals where the days VWAP becomes the agreed price

Yes indeed, not marked as a crossing though, thought it might be an intra broker matching up clients. Fairly big lump of shares though, at a premium to close. Someone wants them, someone doesn't. Market is an amazing place.

[Baa_Baa]

Considering the price movement and volumes over the past 30 days or so, there are still no SSH notices. Only the Directors and Management notices, which last one 4 May is ancient history. So probably still not the really big volume players unless they're moving lots of smaller parcels into the bid/ask. Still, no-one has a 30 day compare on the T20 holders?

[biker]

Bought more today at 2.03

[macduffy]

Still, no-one has a 30 day compare on the T20 holders?

Where would you expect to find that?

[Master98]

Trivia Stats:



Trades

487







Value

$ 5,160,896







Volume

2,514,006







Over $100k

3







Overall Avg

$ 18,590







Median

$ 4,789







High

$ 790,833







Low

$ 57





















After 5pm










Value

$ 1,179,121


23%



Volume

577,618








Apart from the last trade of the day of $790,833 at 5:11pm $2.052, most of it looks like retail sized parcels. Only two others above $100k, one at the open.

methink could be manipulated by brokers/instos, they want to sell or buy at certain share price, similar situations showed on SKT and SPK offshore SSH notices last year, just my guess.

[Baa_Baa]

Where would you expect to find that?

Any current shareholder has the right to request a Top 20 shareholders report from the company. They can also ask for a back dated report if needed and compare it to todays report. Some shareholders regularly request the Top 20 reports to monitor changes in the major holders positions. No one likes it when a T20 is unloading their shares, especially foundation shareholders, though conversely it is encouraging when an existing major is accumulating or a new respected big name is taking a position in the T20.

[smtrader]

Where would you expect to find that?

Yeah i think if anyone is using the IRESS platform, you can find it there but IIRC only updates every fortnight

[smtrader]

Any current shareholder has the right to request a Top 20 shareholders report from the company. They can also ask for a back dated report if needed and compare it to todays report. Some shareholders regularly request the Top 20 reports to monitor changes in the major holders positions. No one likes it when a T20 is unloading their shares, especially foundation shareholders, though conversely it is encouraging when a new respected big name is taking a position in the T20.

Oh a didnt know that.. nice info.. il be bothering all nzx companies right after exams! (the ones i can of course as a shareholder)

[Snow Leopard]

The last 32 days (11-Apr-16 => 25-May-16 inc) as seen 85,497,887 shares* change hands, representing about 7.6% of all of those currently issued.

This is an average of 2,671,809 shares a day and compares to

426,857,585 shares^ [38%] from 20-May-2015 inc) or 1,667,412 shares a day over the last 256 days.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

* I bet at least some of those are really the same share traded multiple times
^ ditto

[Baa_Baa]

Oh a didnt know that.. nice info.. il be bothering all nzx companies right after exams! (the ones i can of course as a shareholder)

A suggestion, not advice ... buy a few shares in everything important on your watchlist, just to get on the share register. For $30 broker fee each plus the few shares, it's worth it to monitor the T20 to complement your FA by knowing who is really moving and shaking every company you own, or those you think you might want to own.

;)
BAA

[macduffy]

Any current shareholder has the right to request a Top 20 shareholders report from the company. They can also ask for a back dated report if needed and compare it to todays report. Some shareholders regularly request the Top 20 reports to monitor changes in the major holders positions. No one likes it when a T20 is unloading their shares, especially foundation shareholders, though conversely it is encouraging when an existing major is accumulating or a new respected big name is taking a position in the T20.

Top 20 shareholder reports are of limited value when so many of the beneficial owners hold their shares in nominee companies. It's the "substantial shareholder" notifications where movements in interests of 5%+ must be notified that are of most interest. Or so I have found.

[Baa_Baa]

Top 20 shareholder reports are of limited value when so many of the beneficial owners hold their shares in nominee companies. It's the "substantial shareholder" notifications where movements in interests of 5%+ must be notified that are of most interest. Or so I have found.

That's true, though initially it's not about 'names' per se, more so where the SP movements are coming from, like who is driving the SP. Those are the ones that are doing the buying and the selling. I agree though that the SSH's are what complements this, by putting names to the bigger players.

[Snow Leopard]

Anyone know if Zero Commission's $2.70 a share offer is still open?

https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/281323

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Jaa]

The last 32 days (11-Apr-16 => 25-May-16 inc) as seen 85,497,887 shares* change hands, representing about 7.6% of all of those currently issued.

This is an average of 2,671,809 shares a day and compares to

426,857,585 shares^ [38%] from 20-May-2015 inc) or 1,667,412 shares a day over the last 256 days.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

* I bet at least some of those are really the same share traded multiple times
^ ditto

Considering 51% is held by her majesty, 7.6% is a large amount of the 49% free float.

[Snow Leopard]

Considering 51% is held by her majesty, 7.6% is a large amount of the 49% free float.

The last substantial shareholder notice (from anybody) is from Auntie Betty on the 6-Jul-15,

Absolutely no other SSH's at all.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[smtrader]

I think a nzx please explain will follow soon..

im not holding for the moment but considering that psychological barrier at 2 for a DCB.. an in and out trade perhaps over a week (maybe others should consider as a way to cushion losses)... what's the sentiment fellas?

[winner69]

The last substantial shareholder notice (from anybody) is from Auntie Betty on the 6-Jul-15,

Absolutely no other SSH's at all.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

She the only one who files SSH - no body else appears to need to

[winner69]

I think a nzx please explain will follow soon..

im not holding for the moment but considering that psychological barrier at 2 for a DCB.. an in and out trade perhaps over a week (maybe others should consider as a way to get cushion losses)... what's the sentiment fellas?

I'll reply for them - "We are in full compliance of NZX Disclosure Rules"

[ohpark0119]

haha, classic one. what's the point of asking anyway? Is nzx expecting something like "we don't give a **** about nzx rules"?
I'll reply for them - "We are in full compliance of NZX Disclosure Rules"

[smtrader]

haha, classic one. what's the point of asking anyway? Is nzx expecting something like "we don't give a **** about nzx rules"?

ahahahaha:t_up:

[ohpark0119]

can this be a stock manipulation or just big dogs selling their positions?

[couta1]

can this be a stock manipulation or just big dogs selling their positions? They go together.

[axe]

can this be a stock manipulation or just big dogs selling their positions?

It could be churn from retail investors selling down as AIR broke down through TA supports - then other investors who tried to catch the bargain hit their stop losses - rinse and repeat and catchy falley knife. We can all look at the same charts.

The Big boys also look at the same charts - why would they buy when the retail folk are chasing the price down like this? Smart money wanting to buy air will be waiting as the price is improving daily.

Buy and hold people can ignore the noise and enjoy the yield :)

[smtrader]

How effective is AIR hedging policy and results?.. anyone monitoring oil prices and volumes.. results might surprise.

[sb9]

From NBR...for those that do not have access...

Air New Zealand shares sink to a near 19-month low as headwinds increase
Air New Zealand’s [NZX: AIR (https://nzx.com/markets/NZSX/securities/air)] shares have sunk to their lowest level in nearly 19 months, plunging more than 33% since early April as the airline’s tailwinds have reversed into headwinds.
The shares fell 4c to $2.02 yesterday, their lowest level since early November 2014, and they have sunk from $3.04 on April 8.
Among the reasons for the share price fall are Air New Zealand’s contracting margins and falling yields as costs, largely from recovering oil prices, rise.
As well, the airline is facing increasing competition.
Salt Funds Management’s joint managing director Matthew Goodson says another factor fuelling the share price decline has been “shorter-term focused offshore investors who aggressively bought the stock earlier and now appear to all be heading for the exits at the same time.”
Air New Zealand’s shares rose more than 260% between January 2012 and January this year.
“The fundamental triggers for those falls have been a lift in oil prices off the bottom, albeit partly offset by lower refining margins, and, more particularly, an increase in competition for Air New Zealand on a number of its routes,” Mr Goodson says.
“Clearly, a lower jet fuel environment has stimulated new entries,” he says.
While some have commented Air New Zealand’s expectations that much of its future growth will come from the lower margin leisure market, Mr Goodson doesn’t think that matters much.
“The key for Air New Zealand is that it has an extremely powerful domestic position that it can feed into its international routes,” he says.
“What you find with many of Air New Zealand’s international routes is that they’re long and skinny, so in many cases there’s room for one-and-a-half airlines,” he says.
Discounting to fill seats
If there’s only one airline, it can make extremely good money, but when there are two airlines, both need to discount to the degree needed to fill the available seats.
“They’re businesses with enormous operating leverage and it’s that operating leverage that matters far more than any distinction between business and leisure travel,” Mr Goodson says.
“Airline earnings, and therefore valuations, can move around sharply because typically there’s a lot of financial leverage via bank debt or leases to own the planes and also a lot of operating leverage,” he says.
“The combination means quite small changes can lead to quite sharp earnings changes.
“That said, looking at Air New Zealand’s at an earnings level that tries to arbitrate through that, it does look cheap, relative to its international peers and I would have to say many of its market positions are better quality as well.”
Nevertheless, analysts have been downgrading their earnings forecasts from 55c per share for the year ending next month to 48c in 2017 and 37.5c in 2018.
“From the recent investor day, (the company) did reiterate that earnings will be lower next year. However, the market was largely already there and obviously everyone can see the new entries on some of their routes,” Mr Goodson says.
“Really, the question for the market is, is there further downside risk to those forecasts and is there further downside risk in the year after,” he says.
“But already consensus forecasts have earnings falling both in the June 2017 year and the June 2018 year, although looking out that far for an airline really is in the realm of crystal ball gazing.”

[oldtech]

Interesting ...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11645237

"NZX toughens enquiry process for sudden share price movements"

New Zealand's stock exchange operator, NZX, is to start making confidential enquiries of listed companies that experience large, unexplained share price movements, to determine whether they may be holding undisclosed "material" information even while remaining in compliance with the market's Listing Rules that require disclosure of material information at certain trigger points.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks sb9 ,appreciate it. At the mercy of stampeding offshore investors jamming the funnel to the tank.

Salt Funds Management’s joint managing director Matthew Goodson says another factor fuelling the share price decline has been “shorter-term focused offshore investors who aggressively bought the stock earlier and now appear to all be heading for the exits at the same time.”


[QUOTE=sb9;622084]From NBR...for those that do not have access...

Air New Zealand shares sink to a near 19-month low as headwinds increase

[Beagle]

If the FMA and NZX want investors to take them seriously they need a prosecution against insider trading in a high profile case. A braking dog is useless unless it bites hard from time to time.

I believe we have solid grounds for such a case here but AIR's legal team would likely smother the FMA's tiny legal prosecution budget so the FMA would be reluctant to take them on.
(Disc still holding, DYOR, not to be considered professional advice or a recommendation and contains speculative opinion based on previous experience dealing with the Securities commission, FMA and NZX compliance).

[winner69]

Sage advice from the mighty Rod Drury (his response to the Herald story linked earlier)

Share price is set by most desperate seller or buyer on any given day. Almost no correlation to business performance


Seems appropriate on this thread eh

[mikeybycrikey]

(Disc still holding, DYOR, not to be considered professional advice or a recommendation and contains speculative opinion based on previous experience dealing with the Securities commission, FMA and NZX compliance).

It feels like your disclaimer is getting longer by the day!

Does the FMA have any remedies before trying to raise a prosecution, for example, approaching the company to say that their security trading policy isn't robust enough? I feel like if there is a problem here then that would be more appropriate right now, especially since a successful prosecuton is probably quite difficult, as it should be.

[forest]

Maybe the rules should be changed so all insiders announce to the market, before they buy or sell shares. If they have no inside information they trade on, I can see no reason insiders can not make an announcement of planned share dealings say at least 1 day and no more than 10 days before trading in shares of companies they are involved with.

[Beagle]

It feels like your disclaimer is getting longer by the day!

Does the FMA have any remedies before trying to raise a prosecution, for example, approaching the company to say that their security trading policy isn't robust enough? I feel like if there is a problem here then that would be more appropriate right now, especially since a successful prosecuton is probably quite difficult, as it should be.

That one was for reasons I am sure you can understand. The short answer is no. People either traded with inside information or they didn't. I think T.C. made a mistake signing off on those management sales immediately preceding the investor day briefing and I've made that point in a robust way. I have asked their general counsel to come back to me with their decision regarding whether they intend to amend their security trading policy for restricted persons going forward and have yet to receive a response. It might be time to formalise investor dissatisfaction with their lack of rigour in this matter through the appropriate channels.

[skid]

I remember putting a post not so long ago saying I didnt think it would hold above $3--To be fair,looking at where we are now,I personally think it may be time to take a good look around. Management deserves a good slap for handling the selling so badly,but realistically ,this kind of carnage is more common to a major profit downgrade (not the small change that was predicted)or some disastrous court battle or calamity.
New Zealand is a country of polarization in many areas.
Im going to go out on a limb here and guess that given a bit of time(2-3 weeks?) this is going to start to blow over and fundamentals are going to start to build the SP again. I reckon the $3 ship has sailed for a good while and those that got in at $2.70 are going to have to wait a good while,but my GUESS is that those who jumped in ,in the lower $2 range will regain their investment.
--Since many have ventured guesses ,thought I might as well throw mine in.
Of course the smartest are those who wait for the upturn to establish itself and if things go to plan they could be in for a good time.
Most likely going for some sort of punishment for whats happened will be a long shot and more than likely will prolong the hinderance of a recovery---IMO.....Good ole cyclicals and market behaviour:p

[Beagle]

I remember putting a post not so long ago saying I didnt think it would hold above $3--To be fair,looking at where we are now,I personally think it may be time to take a good look around. Management deserves a good slap for handling the selling so badly,but realistically ,this kind of carnage is more common to a major profit downgrade (not the small change that was predicted)or some disastrous court battle or calamity.
New Zealand is a country of polarization in many areas.
Im going to go out on a limb here and guess that given a bit of time(2-3 weeks?) this is going to start to blow over and fundamentals are going to start to build the SP again. I reckon the $3 ship has sailed for a good while and those that got in at $2.70 are going to have to wait a good while,but my GUESS is that those who jumped in ,in the lower $2 range will regain their investment.
--Since many have ventured guesses ,thought I might as well throw mine in.
Of course the smartest are those who wait for the upturn to establish itself and if things go to plan they could be in for a good time.
Most likely going for some sort of punishment for whats happened will be a long shot and more than likely will prolong the hinderance of a recovery---IMO.....Good ole cyclicals and market behaviour:p

Agree with most of what you've said, especially the highlighted part.

[Nasi Goreng]

We might get an up day today. Pretty big volume too, does this mean the big players are starting to bite at these low prices? Time to cover shorts and get in on the rebound.

[couta1]

It appears the tide is on the turn, big volume through, perhaps big sellers finishing up (We live in hope) VWAP at $2.05 so if it closes above that, that's positive.

[macduffy]

It appears the tide is on the turn, big volume through, perhaps big sellers finishing up (We live in hope) VWAP at $2.05 so if it closes above that, that's positive.

Yes, recent experience reminds us that AIR is a great trading stock, but.............

:ohmy:

Reminds me of the old market story:

Three investors are engaged in a discussion on the status of financial markets in a famous steak house in the Big City.
At one point a knife falls off the table and plants itself in the foot of one of the men (of course, they're all men).

Clearly hurting, the guy asks his neighbour: why didn't you try to catch it?
The second investor responds: I am a technical trader. We avoid catching falling knifes. Why didn't you move your foot?
The first investor responds: I am a fundamentalist. I didn't think it would drop so low.
He looks at the third investor who responds: I am a contrarian. I had my hands knee-high in anticipation of the bounce, but it didn't.

[winner69]

THose big trades at 205 signalled the bottom

All up from here ...... bring on 3 bucks again


So 33% down but 50% up - yippee

(and then we can through the cycle again)

[Gizzajob I can do that]

http://www.findata.co.nz/News/45466300/Branson_Says_Talks_Under_Way_for_Air_NZ39s_Virgin_ Australia_Stake.htm

[Beagle]

http://www.findata.co.nz/News/45466300/Branson_Says_Talks_Under_Way_for_Air_NZ39s_Virgin_ Australia_Stake.htm

Welcome to the forum and thank you for the information which is much appreciated. Really I think if management were taking a proactive approach towards complete transparency is it incumbent upon them to keep the market informed that at the very least there has been good enquiry from interested parties about AIR's stake in VAH. I would hasten to add that I specifically asked this very question of T.C. last Thursday and he wouldn't even tell me if there had been good interest or otherwise. How is it we learn more from this Bloomberg article than the company itself is prepared to say ? Its a very frustrating time for shareholders and in my opinion the level of transparency from AIR's management is very poor.

[Master98]

Welcome to the forum and thank you for the information which is much appreciated. Really I think if management were taking a proactive approach towards complete transparency is it incumbent upon them to keep the market informed that at the very least there has been good enquiry from interested parties about AIR's stake in VAH. I would hasten to add that I specifically asked this very question of T.C. last Thursday and he wouldn't even tell me if there had been good interest or otherwise. How is it we learn more from this Bloomberg article than the company itself is prepared to say ? Its a very frustrating time for shareholders and in my opinion the level of transparency from AIR's management is very poor.
Generally government owned company transparency always is a problem, hopefully bring us a good outcome from the sale of virgin stake before the end of next month.

[Hectorplains]

http://www.findata.co.nz/News/45466300/Branson_Says_Talks_Under_Way_for_Air_NZ39s_Virgin_ Australia_Stake.htm

Trouble is, Yosser. Branson talks a lot but he doesn't say much.

[bull....]

govt will like a special dividend

[smtrader]

aftermarket sales of 7% of total volume of day @205.9

[workingdad]

aftermarket sales of 7% of total volume of day @205.9

Yeah I noticed that too and was surprised with the SP holding up in afternoon trading. As per yesterday right on VWAP for the day......

[couta1]

Yeah I noticed that too and was surprised with the SP holding up in afternoon trading. As per yesterday right on VWAP for the day...... Actually closed at $2.09, those after close trades went through at the VWAP because they were weighted average agreed trades.

[workingdad]

Actually closed at $2.09, those after close trades went through at the VWAP because they were weighted average agreed trades.

Yes, I understand that but opening price tomorrow will be 2.06 which I guess makes it easier to be a (dare I say it) 2nd green day

[777]

Yes, I understand that but opening price tomorrow will be 2.06 which I guess makes it easier to be a (dare I say it) 2nd green day

No one knows yet what tomorrows opening quote will be.

But the last sale of today is 209 and the up/down sales will be compared with that.

[brend]

Generally government owned company transparency always is a problem, hopefully bring us a good outcome from the sale of virgin stake before the end of next month.

Government has nothing to do with AIR apart from being a majority shareholder.

Could someone copy and paste into forum please? Sorry can't open website from China.

Roger did you ask TC around the business case to lending virgin money then to back flip and want to sell its holdings altogether. It happen so fast that I feel shareholders need to understand what was going through then heads at the time. How ever I doubt they will answer that...

Still sitting on the sidelines waiting to re enter...but did have a small buy a while ago but nothing like I was holding before.

[777]

Here you go...


Air New Zealand Ltd.’s stake in Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd. has attracted several potential buyers and talks are under way about a possible deal, said Richard Branson, the billionaire founder of Virgin Group Ltd.
It’s not yet clear whether Virgin Group itself, which owns about 10 percent of Virgin Australia, will increase its stake in Australia’s second-largest airline, Branson said in an interview with Bloomberg Television from Sydney on Thursday.
“There are discussions going on with them and a number of different parties and we will watch with interest what happens,” Branson said. “Whether or not we will end up buying it, we will have to see. I am a great believer in Virgin Australia.”
Virgin Australia shares were unchanged at 27.5 Australian cents at 12:51 p.m. in Sydney, valuing the Brisbane-based company at A$970 million ($699 million).
Air New Zealand, the biggest investor in Virgin Australia, in March said it may sell its 26 percent stake as Virgin Australia carries out a capital review. Morgan Stanley estimated last month that the Australian airline needs a further A$700 million of funds.
Add a Lot
Other than Virgin Group, Virgin Australia is almost equally owned by Air New Zealand, Etihad Airways PJSC and Singapore Airlines Ltd. The potential exit by Air New Zealand has stoked speculation that Singapore Air will snap up the stake to stop an unwelcome foreign airline muscling in, or buy the stake jointly with Etihad.
“There have been approaches from airlines that are considerable and I think that add a lot to Virgin Australia,” Branson said. “Those discussions are going on. So I cannot, I am afraid, go into details.”
In North America, Branson has been selling rather than buying. Seattle-based Alaska Air Group Inc. last month agreed to buy California-based Virgin America Inc. for $2.6 billion.
Branson said he was opposed to the deal but didn’t have enough voting shares to block it. Just back from Seattle, Branson said he is keen to see the Virgin America brand survive.
Virgin Ethos
“If they decide not to keep the brand, we’ll start again in America and we have some plans if it doesn’t happen,” he said. “I think Alaska, when they do their research, will realize that what they bought was the Virgin America ethos and to destroy that would destroy the value of what they spent in buying it.”
Branson’s space company, Virgin Galactic, is seeking to shake up the $6 billion commercial launch business. The company said at the end of last year that it plans to send small rockets in-flight from a Boeing 747-400 aircraft. Virgin’s SpaceShipTwo venture was grounded after a training accident killed a pilot in 2014.
Branson said he’s still hoping to take customers to the edge of space this decade.
“Otherwise, I would have miscalculated very badly indeed,” he said. Once missions have been approved, Branson said he’ll go up himself first.
“The new spaceship has been born and it’s starting its test programs at the moment and over the next few months our brave test pilots will be putting it through its paces, taking it into space,” he said.
Branson, who lives in the British Virgin Islands, said he’d be “devastated” if Britain pulled out of the European Union. Britons vote on whether to remain in the 28-nation bloc in a June 23 referendum.
“I just hope that sense prevails and when push comes to shove, people will realize it would be enormously damaging both to Europe and to Great Britain if Britain was to walk away,” he said.

[Balance]

Yes, recent experience reminds us that AIR is a great trading stock, but.............

:ohmy:

Reminds me of the old market story:

Three investors are engaged in a discussion on the status of financial markets in a famous steak house in the Big City.
At one point a knife falls off the table and plants itself in the foot of one of the men (of course, they're all men).

Clearly hurting, the guy asks his neighbour: why didn't you try to catch it?
The second investor responds: I am a technical trader. We avoid catching falling knifes. Why didn't you move your foot?
The first investor responds: I am a fundamentalist. I didn't think it would drop so low.
He looks at the third investor who responds: I am a contrarian. I had my hands knee-high in anticipation of the bounce, but it didn't.

"Buy on the way up, sell on the way down".

Simple rule followed by hardened market players.

[Gizzajob I can do that]

Trouble is, Yosser. Branson talks a lot but he doesn't say much.

True, but when Mr B is talking he means buisness.
:confused: