AIR - Air NZ.

[Kelvin]

http://jumpjet.net/

Who are these guys?

Are they serious players?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Registered company since 2000 and nothing has eventuated since then.

If something does come out of it, it's destined to fail like KRA - Air NZ and Qantas will destroy them

[BlackPeter]

http://oil-price.net/en/articles/saudis-lost-US-clout-over-oil-price-war.php

Interesting article. The US is snubbing the Saudis. Donald has call their leader "the dopey prince". The only option they have got is to pump more. If correct then oil is heading south again. Good for AIR.

Not sure about oil heading South again - at least not medium to long term. What the article has overseen is that worldwide the investment into new wells did dramatically drop over the last 18 months or so. It just does not make sense to invest into new wells while the oil price is that low, but existing wells are drying up.

Actually - world oil demand just topped world oil supply again - and the demand keeps growing (due to low price as well), but the supply has basically plateaued and is even slightly dropping (due to the low prices). Check the IEA webpage and latest report: https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

So - yes, we might be in for a bumpy ride - given that the world never before had that much crude in storage ... but I am sure that medium term with storage dropping , existing wells drying up and consumption increasing the oil price will go North again. Probably not as high as it used to be, but high enough for the Saudis (who are one of the lowest cost oil producers world wide) to comfortably survive.

Still - oil might stay for some time in a price range nice to carriers (say below $80), but this is not just AIR, all its competitors benefit as well.

[workingdad]

Additional oil production will be coming on line again very soon, 700 rigs being fired up as we speak - a lot of rigs got cold stacked over the last year or more but operationally they are coming back on line again.

Oil prices will fluctuate as they always do but I don't see prices climbing much, too many rigs and companies keen to get going again.

[Balance]

Not sure about oil heading South again - at least not medium to long term. What the article has overseen is that worldwide the investment into new wells did dramatically drop over the last 18 months or so. It just does not make sense to invest into new wells while the oil price is that low, but existing wells are drying up.

Actually - world oil demand just topped world oil supply again - and the demand keeps growing (due to low price as well), but the supply has basically plateaued and is even slightly dropping (due to the low prices). Check the IEA webpage and latest report: https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

So - yes, we might be in for a bumpy ride - given that the world never before had that much crude in storage ... but I am sure that medium term with storage dropping , existing wells drying up and consumption increasing the oil price will go North again. Probably not as high as it used to be, but high enough for the Saudis (who are one of the lowest cost oil producers world wide) to comfortably survive.

Still - oil might stay for some time in a price range nice to carriers (say below $80), but this is not just AIR, all its competitors benefit as well.

IEA's views have been like that of stock brokers in recent years - following the oil price rather than giving objective and accurate assessment of where oil price is really heading!

A clue to where oil price may be heading is that one of the world's biggest producers Venezuela has just seen its production dropped to 13 year low! Net oil exports are 55% of what they were in 2000.

Venezuela is sitting on the world's biggest proven oil reserves (297 billion barrels) but due to gross mismanagement and corruption, is now a bankrupt nation. Pretty soon, its oil industry will be taken over by foreign interests. It may take a decade but Venezuela can supply 8m barrels a day which will have a profound impact on the supply side.

One opinion any way.

[Balance]

Additional oil production will be coming on line again very soon, 700 rigs being fired up as we speak - a lot of rigs got cold stacked over the last year or more but operationally they are coming back on line again.

Oil prices will fluctuate as they always do but I don't see prices climbing much, too many rigs and companies keen to get going again.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-17/oil-producers-prepare-for-second-half-slump-as-rally-sputters

Reinforcing your view.

Oil producers are taking the opportunity of oil price rallies to hedge the heck out of the rallies - if anyone is in the know about price direction, they do.

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/companies/airbus-and-boeings-greatest-threat-just-arrived/ar-BBussiy?li=AA4Zjm&ocid=spartandhp

New plane maker comes of age. Could be a good workhorse for AIR's domestic fleet in the future.

[winner69]

Wow - be able to check my fitbit in flight now
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1607/S00552/air-new-zealand-pioneers-gate-to-gate-use-of-bluetooth.htm

For an old geezer like me what's bluetooth anyway?

[Nasi Goreng]

You should get an apple watch instead, they look nicer and you can also use it to check in. Bluetooth uses radiowaves to transmit data. So on a plane, you could transfer your holiday pictures from your phone to another phone, device, laptop.

This is worth at least 10c to the share price, can't believe its down today on that news.

[Beagle]

Wow - be able to check my fitbit in flight now
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1607/S00552/air-new-zealand-pioneers-gate-to-gate-use-of-bluetooth.htm

For an old geezer like me what's bluetooth anyway?

Something us more mature gentlemen are better off without. If you have to be wed to the internet and your phone 24/7 that's a sad way to have to live IMHO.
That said for those that must stay connected at all times this is an enhancement over what the competition, (if you can call it that on domestic flights) offers.
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/air-new-zealand-receives-all-clear-gate-gate-bluetooth-devices-ng-191799

[winner69]

You should get an apple watch instead, they look nicer and you can also use it to check in. Bluetooth uses radiowaves to transmit data. So on a plane, you could transfer your holiday pictures from your phone to another phone, device, laptop.

This is worth at least 10c to the share price, can't believe its down today on that news.

Thanks Nasi

Don't have a watch so no need for an Apple one

I see my phone has a Bluetooth button. Must see what it does. It seems to be turned on, hoppe not giving me cancer or something

My expensive Nikon camera doesn't have Bluetooth so probably still need to take the connecting cord to download pics on the plane - but you don't have much room to do all that anyway

Suppose the kids will love this new capability.

[Jaa]

Something us more mature gentlemen are better off without. If you have to be wed to the internet and your phone 24/7 that's a sad way to have to live IMHO.
That said for those that must stay connected at all times this is an enhancement over what the competition, (if you can call it that on domestic flights) offers.
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/air-new-zealand-receives-all-clear-gate-gate-bluetooth-devices-ng-191799

No doubt you will enjoy less blah blah about how you can or can't use this or that electronic device at the start of a flight though.

[Beagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2RgmaVSPXw Informative video, worth a watch for aviation enthusiasts.

[RTFQ]

Thinking about all the Bluetooth discoveries to be made on board reminded me of a funny story I heard recently. A bloke in South Auckland was continually having trouble with the neighbor from hell, a "Mr Smith". One day whilst at home this bloke is visited by the police, who were trying to find the origin of a Wi Fi address in the area with the logon, " D-Smith-Is- an-AR...L". Thinking outside the square I thought.

[Zaphod]

Allowing Bluetooth to be used on the flight would be advantages for headphones; No more tripping over the cord or being asked to unplug them from the IFE during take-off or landing. This policy might also help those who have medical monitoring equipment.

For a variety of logistical and security reasons, I don't use a Bluetooth mouse or keyboard on the plane.

But I think the greatest win here is that science has prevailed over paranoia. There has always been little to no evidence that low power transmitting devices using Bluetooth, Wi-Fi etc. interfere with aircraft systems.

[emveha]

Still waiting for the science that says water bottles don't explode to prevail over paranoia.

[RTFQ]

Allowing Bluetooth to be used on the flight would be advantages for headphones; No more tripping over the cord or being asked to unplug them from the IFE during take-off or landing. This policy might also help those who have medical monitoring equipment.

For a variety of logistical and security reasons, I don't use a Bluetooth mouse or keyboard on the plane.

But I think the greatest win here is that science has prevailed over paranoia. There has always been little to no evidence that low power transmitting devices using Bluetooth, Wi-Fi etc. interfere with aircraft systems.


There is science showing that the older analog phones could interfere with aircraft systems. Remember 300 plus transmitters not just one or two.

I was recently sitting in an aircraft in the States where passengers were permitted to use there phones whilst the plane was delayed for departure. The noise of multiple loud conversations was irritating. I hope the airlines never allow such phone operations in flight.

[Zaphod]

Still waiting for the science that says water bottles don't explode to prevail over paranoia.

Unfortunately, they're correct on that one. Binary explosives can be created readily using a few hundred ml of liquids, so a relatively safe 100ml limit was imposed to provide some leeway for those that need to bring liquids on-board.

[Zaphod]

There is science showing that the older analog phones could interfere with aircraft systems. Remember 300 plus transmitters not just one or two.

I was recently sitting in an aircraft in the States where passengers were permitted to use there phones whilst the plane was delayed for departure. The noise of multiple loud conversations was irritating. I hope the airlines never allow such phone operations in flight.

The issue is that there is no conclusive evidence that low power RF devices (circa 2w which is typical of modern cellphones) can cause disruption to modern avionics even en mass. Evidence of interference from very high wattage transmitters has been substantiated, whereby some avionic instrument systems were susceptible to blanking, but design changes have mitigated this issue.

In the US the FCC (not the FAA) banned the use of cellphones on flights to protect the ground-based towers for excessive traffic (mostly through handshaking) as the devices move from one tower to the next at several hundred Kph.

The noise you hear from the old GSM digital based technology is localised to the speaker and isn't as prevalent anymore thanks to adoption of UTMS and LTE standards. You won't hear that much in NZ as most carriers no longer support GSM.

I agree that the biggest problem facing cell phone use on the plane is a social one. Having someone next to you constantly talking on the phone during the flight would be extremely irritating!

[workingdad]

Should see the OP stats for June today or tomorrow. The last to be including for the EOY results.....

Just bought return fares to Aussie with AIR for the family and the price was exactly the same as 2 years ago when we last went so they must be making some good margins on the transtasman routes given the price of OIL now being considerably less than it was then.

Hopefully a bounce back today to a close higher than 2.265 to make the chart look rosy.

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/285944

There we've, latest op stats...

[freddagg]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/239769.pdf

Am I going mad or have they got their year figures for June the wrong way around

[workingdad]

Should see the OP stats for June today or tomorrow. The last to be including for the EOY results.....

Just bought return fares to Aussie with AIR for the family and the price was exactly the same as 2 years ago when we last went so they must be making some good margins on the transtasman routes given the price of OIL now being considerably less than it was then.

Hopefully a bounce back today to a close higher than 2.265 to make the chart look rosy.

Got that in just in time for the release haha.

I'm pretty happy with it, nothing unexpected and revenue and passenger numbers up overall. Dollar hurting it a bit but that's got some offset in costs such as fuel.

Passengers carried up 6.0% on last year
Revenue Passenger Kilometres up 11.0% on last year
Available Seat Kilometres up 11.5% on last year
Passenger Load Factor down 0.4% on last year but an impressive 83.7% for the year

[workingdad]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/239769.pdf

Am I going mad or have they got their year figures for June the wrong way around

In what way? Do you mean the adjustment for the different number of days in June from this year to last? its at the bottom.

[winner69]

In what way? Do you mean the adjustment for the different number of days in June from this year to last? its at the bottom.

Only accountants can get 37 days in a 30 day month eh

They clever old buggers

[Balance]

Got that in just in time for the release haha.

I'm pretty happy with it, nothing unexpected and revenue and passenger numbers up overall. Dollar hurting it a bit but that's got some offset in costs such as fuel.

Passengers carried up 6.0% on last year
Revenue Passenger Kilometres up 11.0% on last year
Available Seat Kilometres up 11.5% on last year
Passenger Load Factor down 0.4% on last year but an impressive 83.7% for the year




Talked to a broker - results are in line with their firm's expectations. Have concerns about competition especially on NZ/Asia routes so could impact on F17 results. Capital management (as in special dividend or share buyback) definitely something market is looking for guidance on when results released. Compelling yield story - on their current forecasts, over 10% (fully imputed) in F17 and F18.

[workingdad]

Only accountants can get 37 days in a 30 day month eh

They clever old buggers

I recall something about it last year but my memory is fading and looking at the annual results and % I am comfortable and looking at buying more if weakness continues in share price today.

[biker]

Something us more mature gentlemen are better off without. If you have to be wed to the internet and your phone 24/7 that's a sad way to have to live IMHO.
That said for those that must stay connected at all times this is an enhancement over what the competition, (if you can call it that on domestic flights) offers.
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/air-new-zealand-receives-all-clear-gate-gate-bluetooth-devices-ng-191799

It is only blue tooth, nothing about staying connected at all times. We're not talking internet here unfortunately. While I don't wish to be 'wed' to the Internet, the ability to access it whenenever, and wherever I am is something I would certainly value, simply because like it or not, it is an essential, effective and enormously valuable life enhancing tool.
Gate to gate Internet access? Now that will be something. You don't have to use it, and I agree about phone use on board. The idea is abhorrent unless you have phone zones.
Internet access would reduce the demand for phone conversations by enabling email and messaging.

Disc: One of the more mature gentlemen to which you refer and I for one am definitely not better off without it.

[Snow Leopard]

Air New Zealand may have just discovered Bluetooth but Emirates have Blippar (http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1607/S00588/emirates-introduces-interactive-amenity-kit-in-economy-class.htm).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[freddagg]

In what way? Do you mean the adjustment for the different number of days in June from this year to last? its at the bottom.

No, like in the first line of the Investor update it says Passengers carried June 2016 is 1215000 and 2015 1341000 and saying that"s a 4.8% increase. I make it a 4.8% decrease.

[dobby41]

It is only blue tooth, nothing about staying connected at all times. We're not talking internet here unfortunately. While I don't wish to be 'wed' to the Internet, the ability to access it whenenever, and wherever I am is something I would certainly value, simply because like it or not, it is an essential, effective and enormously valuable life enhancing tool.

The thing I really like about air travel is that I am forced to sit down, read a book, watch a movie, eat and drink without feeling like I'm supposed to be doing something else.
This will ruin it!

[couta1]

Hope you're right Roger, I just felt like venting a little.

Couta1, I'm with Roger and everyone else. 50% in any one stock is bonkers, in my humble opinion. Still accumulating, might just end up around this percentage before the divvy, some might call it nuts, I just call it bold. PS-At $2.35 Average now. PPS-Big holding equals big divvy.

[freddagg]

Still accumulating, might just end up around this percentage before the divvy, some might call it nuts, I just call it bold. PS-At $2.41 Average now. PPS-Big holding equals big divvy.

Oddly enough Couta I agree with just about all your posts these days.
I think that at one stage Modandm was close to 100% in AIR and there is nothing "nuts" about him. His research on Air was the best by far and I really miss his input

[workingdad]

No, like in the first line of the Investor update it says Passengers carried June 2016 is 1215000 and 2015 1341000 and saying that"s a 4.8% increase. I make it a 4.8% decrease.

You need to read the asterisk at bottom of the chart. It's a calculation variance adjusted to a % re different number of days in each June.

[couta1]

Oddly enough Couta I agree with just about all your posts these days.
I think that at one stage Modandm was close to 100% in AIR and there is nothing "nuts" about him. His research on Air was the best by far and I really miss his input Thanks. Yes it would be good to hear from Modandm again (I'll bet he hasn't sold a share since he last posted)

[freddagg]

You need to read the asterisk at bottom of the chart. It's a calculation variance adjusted to a % re different number of days in each June.

Oh, thanks. I did read it but not carefully enough. I assumed they would have adjusted all the numbers, not just the %.

[percy]

Oddly enough Couta I agree with just about all your posts these days.
I think that at one stage Modandm was close to 100% in AIR and there is nothing "nuts" about him. His research on Air was the best by far and I really miss his input

Yes I too think Couta1's posts are now well worth reading.
Where is Modandm? He must have read about The Gnomes of Zurich and followed their approach.!
A good book to read about asset allocation is The Dhandho Investor,isbn 9780470043899.I know ChCh libraries have it as they brought it in for me.

[Beagle]

Only accountants can get 37 days in a 30 day month eh

They clever old buggers

Must be a new breed of accountant...first time I've ever noticed this 37 days this June compared to 32 days in the pcp, or was it the other way around ? I guess they are referring too cut off periods in their stat's but any way you slice and dice this thing its a highly unusual way to frame this thing up.

I must be the only one that's somewhat disappointed with June stat's. Load factors to Asia are clearly being affected by the recent arrival of Air Asia. Less than 73% load factor is barely breaking even. Another sale today marketed to airpoints members with fares I haven't seen to Asia for quite some time e.g. AKL to Hong Kong $499. I am not surprised with those low load factors they have to try something radical to boost demand. Will it work ? remains to be seen. One can only wonder how much cheaper AIR Asia's flight crew are compared to AIR's. I wouldn't fly an airline that trains its pilots on play station's (so too speak) and then makes people sit in a sardine can sized environment but others seem to be. Yes the full year's YTD stat's as summed up by WD in post #7531 looked pretty good but the month of June on its own gives an insight into the new environment in which AIR now operate. Disc: Took a very small profit on the extra shares I recently acquired at $2.165...bird in the hand and all that jazz. Back down to 8% portfolio allocation now.

[freddagg]

Yes I too think Couta1's posts are now well worth reading.
Where is Modandm.He must have read about The Gnomes of Zurich and followed their approach.!
A good book to read about asset allocation is The Dhandho Investor,isbn 9780470043899.I know ChCh libraries have it as they brought it in for me.

In one of Mods last posts on the AIR thread he said something about feeling it was no longer appropriate for him to comment on Air. Maybe he is now employed by Air. (Just a wild guess.)

Thanks for the info on The Dhandho Investor book. I see its available as an E book so I will get it.

[couta1]

I probably bought yours Roger, I don't think one should read too much into a month of operating stats(No other company reports monthly so we don't see the stat swings but they would be there to see if they did) Next couple of months should be good though, now the snow has arrived and the ski season is finally in top gear.

[Beagle]

Slow boring day so this might amuse some of you. Some of the comments are pretty amusing.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/79624860/Air-New-Zealand-passenger-scare-when-flight-from-Invercargill-diverted-for-refueling?cid=starter:taboola

[brend]

Must be a new breed of accountant...first time I've ever noticed this 37 days this June compared to 32 days in the pcp, or was it the other way around ? I guess they are referring too cut off periods in their stat's but any way you slice and dice this thing its a highly unusual way to frame this thing up.

I must be the only one that's somewhat disappointed with June stat's. Load factors to Asia are clearly being affected by the recent arrival of Air Asia. Less than 73% load factor is barely breaking even. Another sale today marketed to airpoints members with fares I haven't seen to Asia for quite some time e.g. AKL to Hong Kong $499. I am not surprised with those low load factors they have to try something radical to boost demand. Will it work ? remains to be seen. One can only wonder how much cheaper AIR Asia's flight crew are compared to AIR's. I wouldn't fly an airline that trains its pilots on play station's (so too speak) and then makes people sit in a sardine can sized environment but others seem to be. Yes the full year's YTD stat's as summed up by WD in post #7531 looked pretty good but the month of June on its own gives an insight into the new environment in which AIR now operate. Disc: Took a very small profit on the extra shares I recently acquired at $2.165...bird in the hand and all that jazz. Back down to 8% portfolio allocation now.

In all respects Roger, the email that arrived on my Iphone this morningsaid "asia sale" was very disappointing as it did not include Shanghai. Currently I can get to china via Cathay Pacific via Hong Kong $1,100 return over Jan/Feb vs $1,500 odd via AIRNZ to Shanghai. I almost considered this a done deal but the wife didn't agree due to the layout in HK.

I dont see AIRAsia as the issue? but more so of Hong Kong airlines? but I am still baffled by Shanghai wasn't included.........

[Zaphod]

I dont see AIRAsia as the issue? but more so of Hong Kong airlines? but I am still baffled by Shanghai wasn't included.........

Shanghai had a seperate sale just a few weeks ago.

[Baa_Baa]

Disc: Took a very small profit on the extra shares I recently acquired at $2.165...bird in the hand and all that jazz. Back down to 8% portfolio allocation now.

Probably good timing as it turned over yesterday and closed down on the 50EMA, opened on it today, then and proceeded down through the steep short term rising trend line, after back testing that 50EMA. Good short term technical sell by the looks of it. Doesn't seem much in the way of support to $2.02 again, so will be interesting to see whether AIR becomes range bound between that and $2.26 which is also the 23.6% fib as it happens.

[bull....]

time to wait for 2.05 again lol

things look bad in asia

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-18/cathay-pacific-1st-half-performance-below-expectations-ceo-says

[couta1]

time to wait for 2.05 again lol

things look bad in asia

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-18/cathay-pacific-1st-half-performance-below-expectations-ceo-says After a heavy day of accumulating today, I will be adding more if the price gets that low again however Cathay is down 7.2% this year while Air is down 30% so most of the downside is well and truly priced into Air IMO in comparison to Cathay. With the upcoming results plus the good prospect of a special divvy, if it does venture down that low again it won't last long, once again IMO.

[vin]

Agreed, if it heads that low again I'd be tempted to topup

[workingdad]

I will be keen to get more if it continues down, I am only at 15% with AIR, rest in the bank earning sweet all but safely tucked away.

I don't think AIR is as exposed as other airlines to the competition, domestically we are pretty strong, transtasman is the same, code sharing with the USA aspect is working well and yes the Chinese aspect is facing competition but all in all I cant see AIR struggling any time soon. Well positioned and the SP may be subject to weakness which isn't overly exciting to me but the divvy and imputations are. I have had stops in place with AIR of late but always with the plan to keep shares in hand. That's the FA side of things, TA well... I had hoped for a different scenario but hoping for a higher low in the next couple of days and back on to tracking upwards. We shall see.

[Beagle]

In all respects Roger, the email that arrived on my Iphone this morningsaid "asia sale" was very disappointing as it did not include Shanghai. Currently I can get to china via Cathay Pacific via Hong Kong $1,100 return over Jan/Feb vs $1,500 odd via AIRNZ to Shanghai. I almost considered this a done deal but the wife didn't agree due to the layout in HK.

I dont see AIRAsia as the issue? but more so of Hong Kong airlines? but I am still baffled by Shanghai wasn't included.........

Seen that many times with N.Z. sales. They only discount routes they need too. If I had $10,000 for every time I'd seen a N.Z. sale without a any / or a decent discount on Auckland to Queenstown I'd be retired by now. They're utterly shameless they way they go about it with a disingenuous name that's not inclusive of popular routes. I guess they're just following the Briscoes model...sale every five minutes on product that's often quite over-priced to start with. Seems to work for Rod Duke... Yeah I'd take on more freight again at close to the recent low's of the trading range $2.02.

[see weed]

Must be a new breed of accountant...first time I've ever noticed this 37 days this June compared to 32 days in the pcp, or was it the other way around ? I guess they are referring too cut off periods in their stat's but any way you slice and dice this thing its a highly unusual way to frame this thing up.

I must be the only one that's somewhat disappointed with June stat's. Load factors to Asia are clearly being affected by the recent arrival of Air Asia. Less than 73% load factor is barely breaking even. Another sale today marketed to airpoints members with fares I haven't seen to Asia for quite some time e.g. AKL to Hong Kong $499. I am not surprised with those low load factors they have to try something radical to boost demand. Will it work ? remains to be seen. One can only wonder how much cheaper AIR Asia's flight crew are compared to AIR's. I wouldn't fly an airline that trains its pilots on play station's (so too speak) anden makes people sit in a sardine can sized environment but others seem to be. Yes the full year's YTD stat's as summed up by WD in post #7531 looked pretty good but the month of June on its own gives an insight into the new environment in which AIR now operate th. Disc: Took a very small profit on the extra shares I recently acquired at $2.165...bird in the hand and all that jazz. Back down to 8% portfolio allocation now.
Think I will wait and take the two in the bush...div, sp rise and possible special div, average price still just in the green.

[Snow Leopard]

Still accumulating, might just end up around this percentage before the divvy, some might call it nuts, I just call it bold. PS-At $2.35 Average now. PPS-Big holding equals big divvy.

As the saying goes:

There are old pilots and there are bold pilots
but there are no old, bold pilots.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[workingdad]

I reckon anyone that sells now (particularly those who bought in over the last few weeks as it was coming up from the post Brexit fall) stands to lose more than those buying in or holding.

The resistance shown at the 2.02-3 level even in the big sell off with Brexit shows AIR wont very likely go below that without something of significance happening. Factor in the divvy with EOY and potential special with the VAH sale and its a value buy.

The possibility from a charting perspective (and correct me if I am wrong) but if there is a new higher low set if the SP turns and heads back up it is a good sign. Some may think this is unlikely and who knows, maybe they are right but if it goes down more over the next couple of days I will be topping up. This drop is a test for AIR and it will either pass or fail the test with winners and losers as always.

[couta1]

As the saying goes:

There are old pilots and there are bold pilots
but there are no old, bold pilots.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger Just as well I'm only 54 yrs young then, plenty more years left to exhibit extreme Boldness.

[boysy]

Workingdad if the special divi is smaller than the market expect or withheld completely this thing will likely fall like a rock. As a dividend play I think buyers forget this is not a boring utility play but an airline facing growing competition on all routes with huge CAPEX expenditure required to stand still in terms of the average aircraft age. Great trading stock but I don't think the buy hold pattern has made anyone money in the past few months expect for the recent minor rally.

[couta1]

Workingdad if the special divi is smaller than the market expect or withheld completely this thing will likely fall like a rock. As a dividend play I think buyers forget this is not a boring utility play but an airline facing growing competition on all routes with huge CAPEX expenditure required to stand still in terms of the average aircraft age. Great trading stock but I don't think the buy hold pattern has made anyone money in the past few months expect for the recent minor rally. Correction the Capex will reduce over the next few years and the current price does not allow for any special divvy or any other use of the proceeds of the VAH sale nor the upcoming bumper result.

[boysy]

Who says the current price hasn't factored in a big juicy special dividend and annual result. The more important outlook will be forward earnings guidance.

[Beagle]

Special divvy is a given as is a healthy fully imputed final in my opinion. In my view the market is looking through that to determine the operating environment for FY17 and beyond which explains the SP correction. (Witness Cathay Pacific's comment yesterday that yields are under intense pressure...that's the environment we are now in).

Shares are value at this level but I remain of the view that having a sensible sized allocation to AIR as part of a well balanced portfolio is the way to play this with possibly a small trading strategy augmenting that holding stratagy.

Each to their own though and if some people want to go a long way out on a limb with the size of their holding they do so of their own volition and good luck to them.

Some might say fortune favours the brave but I would say where angels fear to tread... I won't go either.

[couta1]

Who says the current price hasn't factored in a big juicy special dividend and annual result. The more important outlook will be forward earnings guidance. Pass the Tui boysy, if the market had already priced that in, I reckon the price would be around $2.40 right now, even on reduced earnings for the following year, it's still cheap currently due to its high divvy producing ability over the next few years and although it's not a boring utility, the company has been around 76 yrs and has the Govt as a majority shareholder.

[boysy]

That's what people have been saying the whole way down from 330 couta1. The fact remains profitability is highly unlikely to get better for air in the short/medium term (as a result of increased completion across the board)so a record result means little if toward looking guidance is slashed.

[couta1]

The market has known for a while now that's next year's earnings will be less, Air has already spelt this out. I think saying the price will fall like a rock re the special divvy is just down ramping. PS-Median price target equals $2.42 and a hold recommendation.

[see weed]

Did anyone see airplane incidents last Monday night on tv? Can't remember what channel it was on, but think if flying I would always go Air NZ, whatever the price. So what if it's $500 dearer. Had to laugh, this asian airline landed safely, came to a stop, then one of the engines exploded and the whole wing full of fuel blew up, all the passengers had to jump down the shoots and run away. No one hurt thank god. What was most common in all the incidents were the planes were over 15 years old. Then I said to my partner, Geee, hope they don't blow up on landing or takeoff, cause a lot of Auckland live under the new flight path.

[workingdad]

Here's a comment that may irritate some or stoke some response.

I have been in the share market for only a few years, I have done well with an average of 16% p/a although this year is not looking as good with pulling all of my money out months ago other than dabbling back in and out with AIR.

I see prices getting pushed up and down by those that have considerable funds at their disposal and they make money doing so, big money changing investment strategy causing share prices to go up and to go down and again with some investors getting the yips and jumping. Someone makes a decision to start selling or buying and hey presto a trend is started, very little to do with fundamentals, classic example AIR sold VAH and what happened to the SP? Nothing really. The prospect of a special of considerable size and no response, since then its been the general market merry go round, at 2.17 we are only just at the pre Brexit fall.

Compare AIR to other airlines and none of them are suffering in a drop of such magnitude and AIR has never (even at over $3) traded at the EPS levels of comparison airlines. The XAL and others are not down to anywhere near the same degree so AIR is trading below a global average, it has the potential large special, it is reasonably well run, it has a domestic market that performs well, immigration is up which means more family members flying in and out of the country (NZ is a multicultural citizen based country), tourism is at record highs. Yes there is some competition, that's the big bad world and this is not the first time they have had competition. OIL is cheap compared to the past as a decent chunk of expenses meaning load factors can decreases as expected to some degree without a significant hit on the bottom line.

I am still learning and I know AIR's SP will do what it will regardless of my little piece of the action but I wonder how many of the same shares in AIR over the last month or two have been in and out of the same hands - I have no issue, I have done this very thing quite a few times with AIR myself but it still surprises me sometimes just how the merry go round works. Talk it up, talk it down, negative comments abound when SP shows weakness.

I am happy to put it out there, maybe I am wrong and AIR turns out to be a dog but we all make our investment decisions based on our own thoughts - well some just follow the others which is of course a factor.

My 2c

[couta1]

I like your 3rd paragraph wd, ain't it the truth, classic example today watching the depth chart(Some big players selling) but fortunately today there are also a lot of buyers lining up so price holding up otherwise I'm sure it would be a lot lower.

[h2so4]

Here's a comment that may irritate some or stoke some response.

I have been in the share market for only a few years, I have done well with an average of 16% p/a although this year is not looking as good with pulling all of my money out months ago other than dabbling back in and out with AIR.

I see prices getting pushed up and down by those that have considerable funds at their disposal and they make money doing so, big money changing investment strategy causing share prices to go up and to go down and again with some investors getting the yips and jumping. Someone makes a decision to start selling or buying and hey presto a trend is started, very little to do with fundamentals, classic example AIR sold VAH and what happened to the SP? Nothing really. The prospect of a special of considerable size and no response, since then its been the general market merry go round, at 2.17 we are only just at the pre Brexit fall.

Compare AIR to other airlines and none of them are suffering in a drop of such magnitude and AIR has never (even at over $3) traded at the EPS levels of comparison airlines. The XAL and others are not down to anywhere near the same degree so AIR is trading below a global average, it has the potential large special, it is reasonably well run, it has a domestic market that performs well, immigration is up which means more family members flying in and out of the country (NZ is a multicultural citizen based country), tourism is at record highs. Yes there is some competition, that's the big bad world and this is not the first time they have had competition. OIL is cheap compared to the past as a decent chunk of expenses meaning load factors can decreases as expected to some degree without a significant hit on the bottom line.

I am still learning and I know AIR's SP will do what it will regardless of my little piece of the action but I wonder how many of the same shares in AIR over the last month or two have been in and out of the same hands - I have no issue, I have done this very thing quite a few times with AIR myself but it still surprises me sometimes just how the merry go round works. Talk it up, talk it down, negative comments abound when SP shows weakness.

I am happy to put it out there, maybe I am wrong and AIR turns out to be a dog but we all make our investment decisions based on our own thoughts - well some just follow the others which is of course a factor.

My 2c
Yep I guess you have a good understanding of how it all works or at least how instos and big funds want it to work.
I agree nothing to do with the fundamentals of AIR no matter how good they look.
That's the way it is so either sit it out and wait for the share price to reflect its fundamentals or sell out and move on.
Do you have a time limit? I have a time limit rule of 18 months . If a share is not reflecting its value by then I will move on.

[traineeinvestor]

FWIW, prices quoted for the AKL-HK route are noticeably lower than a year ago and I am seeing more AIR emails with specials appearing in my spam folder.

[Biscuit]

.... pulling all of my money out months ago other than dabbling back in and out with AIR....

..... AIR is trading below a global average, it has the potential large special, it is reasonably well run, it has a domestic market that performs well, immigration is up which means more family members flying in and out of the country (NZ is a multicultural citizen based country), tourism is at record highs....

Like most of us WD, you think it is a good company with good prospects, paying great dividends and it looks really undervalued.....but.....you are not committing your money because.....? (probably nothing to do with other people manipulating the share price)

[Beagle]

Good post WD. Market hates uncertainty and in AIR's most recent profit update at their so called investor day they wouldn't / couldn't quantify the effect of increased competition in the new environment in which they now operate.
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/

What they did quantify however which surprised me was circa $120m of non repeating currency benefits they're getting this year that won't repeat going forward. It therefore surprises me in this new yield challenged market era of hot competition that analysts have currently estimated net profit before tax for FY17 of $781m which is only a consensus drop of $56m, (less than half the currency non repeating benefit and no account for extra competition) from the average view of net profit before tax of $837m this year. I think there is potential for analyst downgrades, (current average analyst estimate for FY18 is $574m before tax).

I said privately yesterday to an investor that I see profit before tax of $500m - $600m for FY 17 so I'm considerably more bearish on the extra competition than analysts are.

Its interesting however that if we stick with the official FY18 figure of $574m and call that year some sort of average mid cycle year then the stock is on a PE of only 5.5 at that level vs a ten year average of double that at 11 !

I think the market has got a little over cautious of the outlook and agree the stock has been marked down far harder than most but until AIR's management clarify their FY17 outlook (which they probably won't do until the annual meeting in late Sept), uncertainty is the order of the day and for that reason I am cautious at this stage.

I think there is a genuine risk of analyst downgrades for FY17 and FY18 and have already built that into my thinking. I think the stock is eminently investable at the current price, (notwithstanding competition headwinds) but I can't see a catalyst for a rapid rerating back over $2.50.

Disc: Holding a sensible sized allocation for strong fully imputed dividend yield and not expecting rapid SP gains in the short term.

[workingdad]

Like most of us WD, you think it is a good company with good prospects, paying great dividends and it looks really undervalued.....but.....you are not committing your money because.....? (probably nothing to do with other people manipulating the share price)

No, I have a reasonable holding in AIR, 15% of total 'cash' I had invested before deciding to sell up thinking a correction of some magnitude is coming including doing quite well with AIR selling out high 2.80s when they announced the green vehicle thing. Still think the global economic situation that is the new 'norm' is not a pretty picture reliant on central banks throwing printed money at it.

I hadn't intended holding on to AIR but after coming in too early on the way down a couple of times and recouping some of that with same day trades a number of times I figured I might as well leave it sitting there earning more than the bank is. Last lots bought were at 2.035 and 2.11 after missing out on some at 2.065 on one of the close of market sell offs. Average is more than I want to say but I did say it a few pages back :scared: Its not as high as some but I am in the red which I anticipate to be back in the green with EOY divvy.

[workingdad]

Good post WD. Market hates uncertainty and in AIR's most recent profit update at their so called investor day they wouldn't / couldn't quantify the effect of increased competition in the new environment in which they now operate.
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/

What they did quantify however which surprised me was circa $120m of non repeating currency benefits they're getting this year that won't repeat going forward. It therefore surprises me in this new yield challenged market era of hot competition that analysts have currently estimated net profit before tax for FY17 of $781m which is only a consensus drop of $56m, (less than half the currency non repeating benefit and no account for extra competition) from the average view of net profit before tax of $837m this year. I think there is potential for analyst downgrades, (current average analyst estimate for FY18 is $574m before tax).

I said privately yesterday to an investor that I see profit before tax of $500m - $600m for FY 17 so I'm considerably more bearish on the extra competition than analysts are.

Its interesting however that if we stick with the official FY18 figure of $574m and call that year some sort of average mid cycle year then the stock is on a PE of only 5.5 at that level vs a ten year average of double that at 11 !

I think the market has got a little over cautious of the outlook and agree the stock has been marked down far harder than most but until AIR's management clarify their FY17 outlook (which they probably won't do until the annual meeting in late Sept), uncertainty is the order of the day and for that reason I am cautious at this stage.

I think there is a genuine risk of analyst downgrades for FY17 and FY18 and have already built that into my thinking. I think the stock is eminently investable at the current price, (notwithstanding competition headwinds) but I can't see a catalyst for a rapid rerating back over $2.50.

Disc: Holding a sensible sized allocation for strong fully imputed dividend yield and not expecting rapid SP gains in the short term.

Thanks Roger and well considered post with a balanced view. I agree with your values but think the FY17 is a bit cautious - overestimated by those analysts perhaps but it will come down to the impact of the competition and how much of it is offset with cheaper fuel now the hedging is really kicking in and increasing demand. I am going with somewhere in the middle but the dollar will play a role as well.

I have learnt a lot from many of those more experienced on here and enjoy the forum for the most part.

Cheers

[workingdad]

I like your 3rd paragraph wd, ain't it the truth, classic example today watching the depth chart(Some big players selling) but fortunately today there are also a lot of buyers lining up so price holding up otherwise I'm sure it would be a lot lower.

Thanks Couta1, enjoyed many of your posts and its been a ride the whole AIR experience.

It sat around that 2.16-7 mark for a while recently as well, seems a happy trading zone. Its easy to speculate on who's selling and why without the benefit of SSH notices but I am tempted to get more, not just yet but not far off taking another nibble.

[Biscuit]

Still think the global economic situation that is the new 'norm' is not a pretty picture reliant on central banks throwing printed money at it.

You did well to trade your way back towards the green. I don't know what to make of the "new norm". I've parked a growing chunk of money at the bank and the on call portion is earning less than one percent pa. I guess that is a dilemma for many.

[sb9]

Very interesting discussion going on this thread today, I guess that's the beauty of this forum!!!

[see weed]

Seems like support at 2.17. Starting to accum. a few more at close. Was in green 10k last week, but now down to 1.4k in green. Anyone else getting itchy finger?:)

[workingdad]

I wonder if yesterday will be the higher low that follows the higher high from a TA perspective. If it is it's a good sign but I'm still learning about the complexity of charts,

[winner69]

Baabaa loves his weekly charts and so do I. Weekly changes in price wraps up how investors have behaved during the week by eliminating most of the daily chatter/noise that has occurred during the week.

If AIR closes at 217 this week it will have broken a run if 4 positive weeks and will be the worst week since that big tumble at the end of April

That in summary is how investors/traders/punters have seen AIR this week

[workingdad]

Baabaa loves his weekly charts and so do I. Weekly changes in price wraps up how investors have behaved during the week by eliminating most of the daily chatter/noise that has occurred during the week.

If AIR closes at 217 this week it will have broken a run if 4 positive weeks and will be the worst week since that big tumble at the end of April

That in summary is how investors/traders/punters have seen AIR this week

I'm not near a computer to look at chart but I would have thought the 2.17 to 2.035 during the Brexit fall was worse.

[Tony Two Gloves]

Bugger - just bought some more at 2.18 and 15 mins later they are at 2.165 - as my wife says its all about the timing!

[winner69]

I'm not near a computer to look at chart but I would have thought the 2.17 to 2.035 during the Brexit fall was worse.

Brexit week was an UP week (even if it was only 1 cent) and ended the week at 208

Week following Brexit it closed UP at 209 even though the price went down to 202 or something during the week

Brexit doesnt feature on weekly charts - just a lot of noise throughout the week

Did make a mistake though - there was a bigger down week ( that ending June 17) which was down 15 cents so this week will not be the worst week since April but still breaking a run of up weeks .....must pay more attention to my numbers

[couta1]

Bugger - just bought some more at 2.18 and 15 mins later they are at 2.165 - as my wife says its all about the timing! Only 500 shares went through at that price so don't worry, I've been buying all week between 2.17-$2.23 (Avg 2.19) Could have saved a good Sum buying them all at $2.17 but that's the nature of the game. Happy to get my total Avg down from $2.75 to $2.31 now.

[sb9]

Bugger - just bought some more at 2.18 and 15 mins later they are at 2.165 - as my wife says its all about the timing!

Back to 217 now, one thing sure though with AIR we can never say you picked absolute bottom or top, as long as you're in the trade range that's all it matters!!! Who knows by close today it might've dropped to 215 or headed up to 219?? Better to toss a coin than predict the sp movement in this case at least, just my 2c...

[Tony Two Gloves]

Yes am happy to accumulate in this region, although my holding is creeping close to yours at 75,000 - really want a nice 100,000 shares so it makes my Divvy calculation easier :)
Only 500 shares went through at that price so don't worry, I've been buying all week between 2.17-$2.23 (Avg 2.19) Could have saved a good Sum buying them all at $2.17 but that's the nature of the game. Happy to get my total Avg down from $2.75 to $2.31 now.

[winner69]

Close week 215 - down 11 cents for the week

Not a good week. Was it the operating stats? Or just punters don't like AIR any more?

One consolation - after the last decent weekly fall there was 4 UP weeks

[couta1]

Close week 215 - down 11 cents for the week

Not a good week. Was it the operating stats? Or just punters don't like AIR any more?

One consolation - after the last decent weekly fall there was 4 UP weeks Bigger players despatching this week, retail fish just have to go with the current.

[Baa_Baa]

Close week 215 - down 11 cents for the week

Not a good week. Was it the operating stats? Or just punters don't like AIR any more?

One consolation - after the last decent weekly fall there was 4 UP weeks

Maybe more appealing for some to take the profit from the $2.02 base than wait for the dividend and risk (more) capital losses returning to new lows? Without broker trading reports one has no idea who is moving the market.

[Beagle]

Close week 215 - down 11 cents for the week

Not a good week. Was it the operating stats? Or just punters don't like AIR any more?

One consolation - after the last decent weekly fall there was 4 UP weeks

Yes and last months Op stat's weren't especially flash either. Was catching up on some back programs of Madam Secretary last evening and normally fast forward through the adds but did notice that earlier this month they had an Asia sale and their special was $599 each way to Hong Kong, (this week in yet another sale to Asia where their loads are barely making money at only 72.5%) those same fares are now only $499 each way. I believe this is indicative of the yield pressure as airfares to Vietnam were also only $499 each way...It would appear they are struggling to fill the plane to an acceptable level on some routes.

When Cathay Pacific came out this week and said their yields are under intense pressure that has to be a bit of a concern too, note their average load factor is running at just over 85%, a load factor AIR can only dream about on their Asian routes at present.

Special fares by all airlines have been the norm now for many, many months and consumer fatigue regarding same was a hot topic at the recent international IATA conference as reported on CNBC. AIR's recent load factors despite frequent sales at very attractive prices supports anecdotal evidence that the consumer is generally "getting used too" cheap travel" and doesn't react as strongly to new sale initiatives. By way of example, you can jump on www.grabaseat.co.nz right now and bear in mind this daily special has been up on that website all day and there's hundreds of seats left to LA for only $473 and you can get back for as little as $467. (Thousands left to Hong Kong and Vietnam). These are extraordinary fares for a flight of that distance and yet consumers are not hovering them up with any great appetite like they would have months ago before they were bombarded by cheap fares by all and sundry. It gives the keen observer and inkling of the current yield / demand environment in which AIR operate.

CNBC reported that New aircraft orders at the recent Farnborough biannual airshow were well down on the last show, airlines appear to be becoming more cautious as consumers become more blasé about cheap travel.

Disc: Took some money off the table in regard to AIR this week at $2.24. Still holding some. I think company guidance for 1H FY17 (which will most likely be forthcoming at the annual meeting in just over two months time) may disappoint some investors.

[couta1]

Not too many excellent divvy paying stocks left at a good price that compare with Air if you look around on the current rampant NZX.

[Beagle]

Agree with you mate that AIR is a great yield story and all five brokers covering them rate them as a hold and in a nutshell that's also how I see it. I also agree that many stock prices are very stretched and trading on very demanding PE's and by contrast AIR is a good value play.

[Beagle]

AKA - you get what you pay for.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business-travel/news/video.cfm?c_id=813&gal_cid=813&gallery_id=162976

[RTFQ]

AA, Hawaian and United all beating earnings last week.

As an aside big negative news about to be released regarding the ineffectiveness of health supplements and fish oil, if one is into health supplement companies.

[see weed]

Air Ann. results due out end off August 2016? Last year results were on 26 August.

[Raz]

Maybe more appealing for some to take the profit from the $2.02 base than wait for the dividend and risk (more) capital losses returning to new lows? Without broker trading reports one has no idea who is moving the market.

Way too busy to comment last week however that is exactly what i did...run up was not as compelling as I had hoped given expected dividend range..

[Raz]

Yes and last months Op stat's weren't especially flash either. Was catching up on some back programs of Madam Secretary last evening and normally fast forward through the adds but did notice that earlier this month they had an Asia sale and their special was $599 each way to Hong Kong, (this week in yet another sale to Asia where their loads are barely making money at only 72.5%) those same fares are now only $499 each way. I believe this is indicative of the yield pressure as airfares to Vietnam were also only $499 each way...It would appear they are struggling to fill the plane to an acceptable level on some routes.

When Cathay Pacific came out this week and said their yields are under intense pressure that has to be a bit of a concern too, note their average load factor is running at just over 85%, a load factor AIR can only dream about on their Asian routes at present.

Special fares by all airlines have been the norm now for many, many months and consumer fatigue regarding same was a hot topic at the recent international IATA conference as reported on CNBC. AIR's recent load factors despite frequent sales at very attractive prices supports anecdotal evidence that the consumer is generally "getting used too" cheap travel" and doesn't react as strongly to new sale initiatives. By way of example, you can jump on www.grabaseat.co.nz right now and bear in mind this daily special has been up on that website all day and there's hundreds of seats left to LA for only $473 and you can get back for as little as $467. (Thousands left to Hong Kong and Vietnam). These are extraordinary fares for a flight of that distance and yet consumers are not hovering them up with any great appetite like they would have months ago before they were bombarded by cheap fares by all and sundry. It gives the keen observer and inkling of the current yield / demand environment in which AIR operate.

CNBC reported that New aircraft orders at the recent Farnborough biannual airshow were well down on the last show, airlines appear to be becoming more cautious as consumers become more blasé about cheap travel.

Disc: Took some money off the table in regard to AIR this week at $2.24. Still holding some. I think company guidance for 1H FY17 (which will most likely be forthcoming at the annual meeting in just over two months time) may disappoint some investors.

This from your Rodger, you are a great example of adaptation, just like customers are adapting to the new price points. Also if a time comes to increase fares what happens....

[couta1]

Way too busy to comment last week however that is exactly what i did...run up was not as compelling as I had hoped given expected dividend range.. An approx 70k worth of divvy plus Imps is compelling enough for me.:cool:

[Nasi Goreng]

An approx 70k worth of divvy plus Imps is compelling enough for me.:cool:

But you have to go all in to get that. No thanks.

[couta1]

But you have to go all in to get that. No thanks. Not for everyone but suits my kinda personality, you have to get used to seeing a big red arrow beside the stock even though you may only be a few percent down, all those Imps come directly off your Gross tax payable so worth it.

[Snow Leopard]

AA, Hawaian and United all beating earnings last week....

AA have also pushed back delivery of their A350's by two years as part of their not too optimistic view of the future, (but others will be glad to get their jets a little earlier).

Analyst valuations are still falling for United, Q3 not looking flash.

Hawaian seems to be the least pessimistic of the three.


But that is the good ole' US of A.
Meanwhile in Asia, ME, Europe things do not look so rosy.
Latin America is terrible.

One way or another most airlines are complaining about increased competition whilst expanding their networks.
Airbus has a 10 year backlog, Boeing over 7 years, capacity is rising faster than demand.

It looks like a tough world out there for the airline industry as it flys itself down into the trough of the cycle.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Raz]

An approx 70k worth of divvy plus Imps is compelling enough for me.:cool:

Investors trying to make a point? 70k, ok so why not make that before the dividend is even declared. I have take whats on the table..big gains can also become big losses when all in.

Don't worry I had a six figure shareholding..I was all in however the point being i have made twenty cents a share each time from the cycle from low twos which stalled in the 2.25 range...happy to book 40 cents a share like a lot of traders/investors since the cliff diving..I already have the equivalent of the dividend in the bank and still have time to buy in again for the actual dividend which given AIR rep will be at the lower expected range...it all depends if it worth waiting for given the share price. Think where are we ex-dividend.

[couta1]

Raz your probably a pro trader, I'm not and have a good income from my job so reducing my tax payable as much as possible by claiming Imps is of more interest to me. PS-Its also a bit different when you hold a large number of shares purchased at a higher price ie in the $2.65-$2.80 range (Averaged down to $2.31 now but you get my drift)

[Beagle]

One way or another most airlines are complaining about increased competition whilst expanding their networks.

You'd think they'd learn from the last time round. KW was right..airlines generally seem so determined to expand they inevitably fly themselves into a demand hole.

AIR probably manage demand / supply better than most but won't be immune by any means to the effects of the down cycle.

Tourism Booming though. http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/carry-visitor-numbers-hit-33m-departures-boom-and-more-ng-191881

[see weed]

$2.15c new low for this week? Grabbed another 7000 this morning. Come on now pump pump move it on 2.20 here we come. Just waiting for them brokers to stop feeding more sellers in at 2.16:).

[workingdad]

I'm still looking to get some more but just waiting to see if this is the bottom of this dip. Really want to see a new higher low set in the grand scheme of things and hope this is it and price will climb again. Probably going to be in it for the longer term. I know competition is the big talk of the moment and yes it will impact but I think tourism will offset this quite a bit. Cautious with the weakness it has shown but still a believer.

[see weed]

Yeah, looks like some drip feeding at 2.16...drip drip drip. Can you stop that drip couta 1.

[couta1]

Yeah, looks like some drip feeding at 2.16...drip drip drip. Can you stop that drip couta 1. I'm all in and all out of cash so I'll leave the drip stopping mission to your good self.

[777]

I'm all in and all out of cash so I'll leave the drip stopping mission to your good self.

The banks have so much that they are lending it out.

[couta1]

The banks have so much that they are lending it out. I'm thinking 54% of my portfolio total is probably enough for now.

[see weed]

I'm still looking to get some more but just waiting to see if this is the bottom of this dip. Really want to see a new higher low set in the grand scheme of things and hope this is it and price will climb again. Probably going to be in it for the longer term. I know competition is the big talk of the moment and yes it will impact but I think tourism will offset this quite a bit. Cautious with the weakness it has shown but still a believer.
Same here, also in for the longer, med., and short term. So am not too concerned about the price at this level, If it goes up you will kick yourself , if you buy now and it goes down you will kick yourself. Too much paralysis causes analysis......or is it the other way round.

[BlackPeter]

I'm thinking 54% of my portfolio total is probably enough for now.

Wow ... 54 % into just one (at least medium risk) stock? Some might call that brave, others might use less PC words. Are you sure that you want to take this risk? I guess even if we assume that AIR is not a cyclical stock on the downwards path ... S**t happens in any industry, but particularly in industries who tend to fly people (or ship goods) around the world.

Just imagine it would have been AIR instead of Malaysian Airlines loosing a handful (or just one) plane. How would you than feel about your investment? Sure - some airlines are better than others, but there is no absolute security.

Personally - my limit is 10% in any stock ... and yes, sometimes I allow this number to grow slightly in an uptrend. However - never choose to put more than half of my eggs into the same basket ... Kids - don't try that at home!

[macduffy]

I'm thinking 54% of my portfolio total is probably enough for now.

That stopped me in my tracks, too!

I don't think that in my 45+ years of investing I've ever exceeded the 20% mark - but then, I've never made the rich list either!

;)

[pierre]

That stopped me in my tracks, too!

I don't think that in my 45+ years of investing I've ever exceeded the 20% mark - but then, I've never made the rich list either!

;)

I usually stick to the 20% limit too - but over the past few days the rapid appreciation in my BLT holding has taken it up to just over 26%. I've been on board with BLT since 2005 and ridden that roller coaster over the years since then. I think there is plenty of life in the SP yet so am happy to hold and will be delighted if it reaches 40% of my portfolio over the next 2-3 years.

Not so keen on the AIR roller coaster though - I've sold most of my holding in recent weeks- it's now only 2% portfolio share!

[Beagle]

Wow ... 54 % into just one (at least medium risk) stock? Some might call that brave, others might use less PC words. Are you sure that you want to take this risk? I guess even if we assume that AIR is not a cyclical stock on the downwards path ... S**t happens in any industry, but particularly in industries who tend to fly people (or ship goods) around the world.

Just imagine it would have been AIR instead of Malaysian Airlines loosing a handful (or just one) plane. How would you than feel about your investment? Sure - some airlines are better than others, but there is no absolute security.

Personally - my limit is 10% in any stock ... and yes, sometimes I allow this number to grow slightly in an uptrend. However - never choose to put more than half of my eggs into the same basket ... Kids - don't try that at home!

Good post BP agree 100%.

[sharp]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11681687

Hahahahaha.

Poor sods.

[see weed]

Buyers building up go baby go:D.

[winner69]

Buyers building up go baby go:D.


Go baby go - 220 ...225 ....230 etc etc

Maybe Dream Baby Dream ....great song from recently departed Alan Vega RIP Alan

[BIRMANBOY]

Congratulations ..you have managed to describe stock market investment in under 100 words...many very knowledgeable people have written entire books on this subject and delivered less.:eek2:
Same here, also in for the longer, med., and short term. So am not too concerned about the price at this level, If it goes up you will kick yourself , if you buy now and it goes down you will kick yourself. Too much paralysis causes analysis......or is it the other way round.

[see weed]

I'm still looking to get some more but just waiting to see if this is the bottom of this dip. Really want to see a new higher low set in the grand scheme of things and hope this is it and price will climb again. Probably going to be in it for the longer term. I know competition is the big talk of the moment and yes it will impact but I think tourism will offset this quite a bit. Cautious with the weakness it has shown but still a believer.
Did you end up getting some? $2.15 is looking like a new higher low. You could use the scatter gun approach and buy more today, tomorrow and yesterday, sometimes it works:).

[see weed]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11681687

Hahahahaha.

Poor sods.
Well, they might try AIR next time. Rose Richards could of stayed at my place, got two spare rooms, 15 mins. to airport and 15 mins to town, but only if she flies AIR:cool:.

[workingdad]

Did you end up getting some? $2.15 is looking like a new higher low. You could use the scatter gun approach and buy more today, tomorrow and yesterday, sometimes it works:).

Not quite, I am happy with what I have even though I would like to add some more but wont be full of regret if it goes up from here and I miss out. I am not sure the weakness is over, significant volume added to the sell side to match the 160,000 shares on the buy side right on market close - makes me wonder if there is still some selling to come but it does appear that the sell level seems to be that 2.15-16 range previously mentioned and no shortage of takers.

My balls or bank balance are not as big as some :scared:

Watching closely ready to buy more if I get the sense the time is right.

[iceman]

Well, they might try AIR next time. Rose Richards could of stayed at my place, got two spare rooms, 15 mins. to airport and 15 mins to town, but only if she flies AIR:cool:.

That´s no guarantee of hassle free travels. I recently flew AIR to Houston, connecting with Lufthansa to Frankfurt. AIR was 2.5 hrs late out of Auckland and 30 odd passengers lost the Frankfurt connection and had 24 hrs delay in Houston. Most of us had to rebook (at our cost) further travels within Europe. Needless to say, none of us wwere too happy with AIR´s performance and their on ground Houston service was pathetic.

[Raz]

That´s no guarantee of hassle free travels. I recently flew AIR to Houston, connecting with Lufthansa to Frankfurt. AIR was 2.5 hrs late out of Auckland and 30 odd passengers lost the Frankfurt connection and had 24 hrs delay in Houston. Most of us had to rebook (at our cost) further travels within Europe. Needless to say, none of us wwere too happy with AIR´s performance and their on ground Houston service was pathetic.

The real question is why airlines do not have a decent process in place for delays and especially overnight delays anymore..... a long time ago they had hotels sorted and food ready on arrival at hotels if you had a delay...it all seems to now turn to **** with conflicting communication with no clear process... it makes a bad situation just worse.

[workingdad]

Yeah I have to admit I was less than impressed with how AIR handled a delayed baggage situation when I went to Vancouver 6 months ago. Wasn't their fault the bag never made it on due to a backlog at AIA but the customer services didn't deal with the claim process on my return very well. When dropping a fair amount of $ on business class flights there was an expectation AIR would have handled it with a degree of pedigree which never happened. I had travel insurance but there was a limit of $1200 and buying clothes in Vancouver for a day trip to -6 degrees in Calgary isn't cheap and the $300 over spend proved a challenge to get repaid.
As above. It is apparent the service of days gone by are long gone.
Credit where it's due, the direct services on the flights, check in, lounges and ease of use with the app is brilliant.

[macduffy]

Just another reflection of air travel as a commodity these days.

[Baa_Baa]

Today suggests a bounce off short term trend line support, upside target $2.28 being previous resistance. There's so much overhead price resistance above that it doesn't worth mentioning, so rejoice in any capital gains AIR might present in the short term. Beware the price discount impending due to dividends many expect to be paid out.

[Beagle]

I wonder if our friend Couta1 has been reading up and researching the available studies on the merits of dividend stripping. I think he's going for a maxi strip...sure the SP will drop temporarily by the same as the dividend but all the studies I have seen show more often than not the price recovers within a few weeks and sometimes a lot sooner. Could turn out to be a share play that's as cunning as a hungry beagle dog.

[Raz]

I wonder if our friend Couta1 has been reading up and researching the available studies on the merits of dividend stripping. I think he's going for a maxi strip...sure the SP will drop temporarily by the same as the dividend but all the studies I have seen show more often than not the price recovers within a few weeks and sometimes a lot sooner. Could turn out to be a share play that's as cunning as a hungry beagle dog.

Well I get thats what you wish for...really ignores all your concerns just the other day.

[brend]

Yeah I have to admit I was less than impressed with how AIR handled a delayed baggage situation when I went to Vancouver 6 months ago.

Mate I'm still waiting for them to refund me for a skycouch. This refund was approved well over a month ago with the transfer to be done with 10-15 working days from that date....still nothing!!!!

[Beagle]

Well I get thats what you wish for...really ignores all your concerns just the other day.

Concerns remain but validity of dividend stripping as means of augmenting other investment strategies is also valid. Not in conflict...just have to ensure one has the right sized shareholding at the appropriate time.

Couta1 obviously taken the view that where we are now is some sort of baseline and I hope for all of our sakes he's bang on the money.

[Baa_Baa]

Long moving averages are not encouraging, as the 200MA has crossed down through the 400MA, the 'double death cross'. Last time this happened was Aug 2011 heralding a one year down/sideways move before the Aug'12 spike up and the 200/400MA cross back up in Dec'12.

The 400MA can also be informative when the SP crosses through it either way, like it did crossing up around $1.00 and recently down at $2.70 whereas it has supported the SP twice in the past 3-4 years. Unlike the 200MA which has been breached down 5 times.

This is only relevant if you care about capital management.

[h2so4]

At 54% I'm sure Couta views AIR as an exceptional opportunity.

In 1986 an investment of $100000 in Microsoft would be worth $40m today.
Now that's a truck load.

[winner69]

Long moving averages are not encouraging, as the 200MA has crossed down through the 400MA, the 'double death cross'. Last time this happened was Aug 2011 heralding a one year down/sideways move before the Aug'12 spike up and the 200/400MA cross back up in Dec'12.

The 400MA can also be informative when the SP crosses through it either way, like it did crossing up around $1.00 and recently down at $2.70 whereas it has supported the SP twice in the past 3-4 years. Unlike the 200MA which has been breached down 5 times.

This is only relevant if you care about capital management.

Still above the 1000MA - that's good

Spooky thing it bounced off the 1000MA when it reached the 203/204 mark a few weeks ago

How long is a 1000 (trading) days

[boysy]

Not sure air can in anyway be compared to microsoft. Let's see how big the special divi is and the market reaction before the back slapping commences. Still think most here are underestimating the financial impact of new carriers into airs previous monopoly/ most profitable routes.

[winner69]

Today is going to be another watershed day when the price bursts well into the 220's

[OldGuy]

Still above the 1000MA - that's good

Spooky thing it bounced off the 1000MA when it reached the 203/204 mark a few weeks ago

How long is a 1000 (trading) days

about 4 years assuming 50 weeks * 5 trading days per week :)

[BlackPeter]

Today is going to be another watershed day when the price bursts well into the 220's

Interesting prediction ... which tools do you use to come to this conclusion?

[winner69]

Interesting prediction ... which tools do you use to come to this conclusion?

A time weighted volume momentum indicator in tandem with a sharetrader sentiment index

Worked well when price was down at 205

[Big Blind]

A time weighted volume momentum indicator in tandem with a sharetrader sentiment index

Worked well when price was down at 205

Is that with or without the flux capacitor?

[workingdad]

Not sure air can in anyway be compared to microsoft. Let's see how big the special divi is and the market reaction before the back slapping commences. Still think most here are underestimating the financial impact of new carriers into airs previous monopoly/ most profitable routes.

What do you see the impact of the competition? I agree perhaps it has been underestimated by some but with NZ tourism and global tourism in general going through the roof is there not the headroom for some competition?

Inmigration is another increase in demand and NZers are also traveling more.

Fuel hedging looking good and oil price outlook relatively subdued.

I'm not saying 2017 or 2018 will be record profits but I don't think it's all doom and gloom and at current SP undervalued.

[winner69]

Is that with or without the flux capacitor?

I'll ask Emmett if including a flux capacitor would help

[Beagle]

Not sure air can in anyway be compared to microsoft. Let's see how big the special divi is and the market reaction before the back slapping commences. Still think most here are underestimating the financial impact of new carriers into airs previous monopoly/ most profitable routes.

$200-250m before tax impact from new competition this year IMO. My estimate appears to be substantially higher than average analyst estimate. I still think the market has over reacted to the effects of new competition but sentiment is what it is and until the company clarifies its IH17 outlook uncertainty will prevail.

[h2so4]

Not sure air can in anyway be compared to microsoft.

Exactly right. So why would you risk 54% of your portfolio for a Dividend strip?
AIR is not exactly a hand basket case scenario.

[boysy]

Roger I think you are correct re to be analyst estimates. By giving monthly updates re operating stats I think we are watching a slow motion train smash as we will continue to see load factors fall across the most profitable routes. This isnt to say air nz are to start losing money anytime soon but the landscape is changing and more completion is seeing air nz dropping their pants to fill seats On the long haul routes. How much they can make back on the domestic routes once all the travelers is in nz is the million $ question. Still think holding out for a windfall special divi in these changing times Is a big call. Going forward with reduced profitability what is the long term sustainable divi level for air is the question ?

[workingdad]

Not sure about profit basis but domestic makes up about a third of passenger numbers.
Biggest grouping is short haul at nearly half and smallest is the Asia/Japan/Singapore which isn't even 5%.
Competition isn't exactly hitting the numbers across the board.
I look forward to guidance in EOY results but perhaps they paint a picture that is worse than they think to make it easier to out perform or understate it.....

[Beagle]

Roger I think you are correct re to be analyst estimates. By giving monthly updates re operating stats I think we are watching a slow motion train smash as we will continue to see load factors fall across the most profitable routes. This isnt to say air nz are to start losing money anytime soon but the landscape is changing and more completion is seeing air nz dropping their pants to fill seats On the long haul routes. How much they can make back on the domestic routes once all the travelers is in nz is the million $ question. Still think holding out for a windfall special divi in these changing times Is a big call. Going forward with reduced profitability what is the long term sustainable divi level for air is the question ?

Early days on the new trend towards lower load factors and lower yields and I think describing it as a slow motion train wreck is excessively pessimistic but its well worth noting that AIR's management themselves acknowledged the operating environment has now normalised, (as opposed to tailwinds through more modest competition). They wouldn't / couldn't estimate the extra competition effect going forward at the investor day briefing but I do think the last two month's operating stat's show analyst estimates made at that time may be a little optimistic. I remain of the view that we're looking at $500m - $600m before tax for FY17, (which is well below average analyst estimate) but there's LOTS of water to flow under the bridge between now and June 30 2017. I think an annual dividend rate of circa 20 cps fully imputed are sustainable going forward across the cycle, but again time will tell.

[Snow Leopard]

Not sure about profit basis but domestic makes up about a third of passenger numbers....

Pity about that, profit being the important set of numbers :)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[freddagg]

Wow ... 54 % into just one (at least medium risk) stock? Some might call that brave, others might use less PC words. Are you sure that you want to take this risk? I guess even if we assume that AIR is not a cyclical stock on the downwards path ... S**t happens in any industry, but particularly in industries who tend to fly people (or ship goods) around the world.

Just imagine it would have been AIR instead of Malaysian Airlines loosing a handful (or just one) plane. How would you than feel about your investment? Sure - some airlines are better than others, but there is no absolute security.

Personally - my limit is 10% in any stock ... and yes, sometimes I allow this number to grow slightly in an uptrend. However - never choose to put more than half of my eggs into the same basket ... Kids - don't try that at home!

Of course 54% of his portfolio could still be a small percentage of his wealth.

[workingdad]

Pity about that, profit being the important set of numbers :)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Indeed but trying to estimate the impact of competition on the bottom line is a best guess scenario that no one can answer with any degree of certainty. Looking at passenger numbers and on the routes in particular facing competition can at least give some indication on that impact. To what degree do AIR release commercially sensitive calculations on specific route margins.....

A post after the June stats were released honed in on the only load factor in the 70s range that when taking into account the route grouping being the smallest number of passengers flown and statements of how this impacts overall profits to such degrees when in reality a large portion of AIRs business is not really being affected quite so much as supported by the overall stats.

Time will tell PT and I don't think I am looking through rose tinted glasses nor am I looking at worst case.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Etihad has coughed up the Dirhams to paticipate in Virgin's(Under Arm Bowlers Division) capital raising.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation/etihad-to-join-virgin-capital-raising-keep-218pc-stake/news-story/8ce0268425172f00ab64a3676f24975a

Y'all know my plan for Etihad to buy Cullen Airlines from John Key. Seems Etihad is still interested in Austalasia, so my hopes remain.

Rumor has it that Virgin(Under Arm Bowlers Division) wants to swap in its Tiger brand metal on short haul international. I wonder if that includes across the ditch? Crouching Tiger Airlines and Cullen Airlines can compete on how many bodies they can compress onto an aircraft in thrombosis class.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Snow Leopard]

Indeed but trying to estimate the impact of competition on the bottom line is a best guess scenario that no one can answer with any degree of certainty. Looking at passenger numbers and on the routes in particular facing competition can at least give some indication on that impact. To what degree do AIR release commercially sensitive calculations on specific route margins.....

A post after the June stats were released honed in on the only load factor in the 70s range that when taking into account the route grouping being the smallest number of passengers flown and statements of how this impacts overall profits to such degrees when in reality a large portion of AIRs business is not really being affected quite so much as supported by the overall stats.

Time will tell PT and I don't think I am looking through rose tinted glasses nor am I looking at worst case.

Stats - read the title of my last post.

But RPK and ASK for Domestic is the smallest (at 15%) bit of AIR operations. :t_down:

Asia is next at 21%, then TasPac at 29% and USA/UK at 35%. :confused:

But of course it is not that simple. :mad ;: In fact it is very complicated. :eek2:

BTW Do you want to buy some A380's, PM if you are interested.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[h2so4]

Of course 54% of his portfolio could still be a small percentage of his wealth.

Yes I presume it's only his share portfolio and if there is a Mrs Couta then it's only 27%.
So that's Ok in my books.

[RTFQ]

[QUOTE=workingdad;629844]Not sure about profit basis but domestic makes up about a third of passenger numbers.

Domestic is where most of the profit is made. Still got a monopoly there. With fuel heading south towards $35/brl again, with a little uncertainty towards the end of year, AIR will continue to make good profits. The fuel issue will mean conservative forecasts.

[Nasi Goreng]

I think 54% is a bit crazy but probably no more crazy than a property investor buying an investment property as their only investment and borrowing $500k to do it.

You won't get rich quick with an ETF or 20 stock portfolio but over time, you should. There is a chance Air goes to $3 in the next 6 months and if it does and he hangs on for the ride, he's cashing in big chips.

If the tide goes out, he's going to be caught swimming naked... I'm sure he knows this.

[workingdad]

Stats - read the title of my last post.

But RPK and ASK for Domestic is the smallest (at 15%) bit of AIR operations. :t_down:

Asia is next at 21%, then TasPac at 29% and USA/UK at 35%. :confused:

But of course it is not that simple. :mad ;: In fact it is very complicated. :eek2:

BTW Do you want to buy some A380's, PM if you are interested.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger


I have a lot of respect for you PT and your wit.

At the end of the day different terms but still similar..... load factors are RPK divided by ASK and yield well that is as you say very complicated. My point is still the same, this competition everyone keeps referring to as if the end of AIRs profitability is not across the board on all groupings and there are tailwinds to offset it.



[QUOTE=workingdad;629844]Not sure about profit basis but domestic makes up about a third of passenger numbers.

Domestic is where most of the profit is made. Still got a monopoly there. With fuel heading south towards $35/brl again, with a little uncertainty towards the end of year, AIR will continue to make good profits. The fuel issue will mean conservative forecasts.

They also stand to do better with rather good US dollar hedging in place as well.

[BlackPeter]

Today is going to be another watershed day when the price bursts well into the 220's

whatever it is ... I think you need to review your tools - this prediction clearly did not work out :sleep:

discl: my crystal ball is cloudy as well

[winner69]

Looks like a fair chunk of AIR revenue come from International flights. Unfortunately H1 reports don't seem to give yields for the different International sectors so just grouped into International in the table below

International 12% of passengers but 44% of revenues

Wonder what this table will look like for full year

[winner69]

whatever it is ... I think you need to review your tools - this prediction clearly did not work out :sleep:

discl: my crystal ball is cloudy as well

I've had a chat with Emmett and he has told me how to utilise a flux capacitor in the model (as suggested by a poster this morning)

Will do that overnight and report back tomorrow

[Beagle]

I picked up a few more at the close at $2.16. Cheap enough relative to where other stocks are at and ultra low call rates @ AA- rated banks. Gotta put some money to work somewhere, won't get far in life with 2% interest on call. Vast majority of the NZX market is really very stretched at current prices IMO. OTOH It won't surprise any of you that I think all my other stocks are also good value LOL :D

[workingdad]

Looks like a fair chunk of AIR revenue come from International flights. Unfortunately H1 reports don't seem to give yields for the different International sectors so just grouped into International in the table below

International 12% of passengers but 44% of revenues

Wonder what this table will look like for full year

Thanks Winner, I reread the same update looking for this today and missed it..... Good to know. It will be interesting to see the full year one, but at least 56% of revenue is reasonably well entrenched re competition.

With international being 12% of passengers and 44% of revenue, this would be in line with the increased operating costs of international.

Interesting to see the yield in domestic is $0.275 versus international of $0.108 which is in line with RTFQ comment on domestic making most of AIRs profits.

[winner69]

Thanks Winner, I reread the same update looking for this today and missed it..... Good to know. It will be interesting to see the full year one, but at least 56% of revenue is reasonably well entrenched re competition.

With international being 12% of passengers and 44% of revenue, this would be in line with the increased operating costs of tition'international.

Interesting to see the yield in domestic is $0.275 versus international of $0.108 which is in line with RTFQ comment on domestic making most of AIRs profits.

Maybe not the whole 56% is 'well entrenched from competition' - the Trans-Tasman (27%) competition heating up

[Baa_Baa]

Almost text book trend line TA today, rising up to $2.195 to test the quite steep descending trend line from the highs (closing price basis) and falling back to retest the short term rising trend line support $2.16 (the MO of sell the afternoon and the close continues, they say it's the bunnies that open and the pros that close, so go figure on that one).. being picky, I'd prefer to have seen $2.17 support holding but slammorama into the close and it's $2.16. Unless there's some great news we don't know about odds are on that this will leak lower, in any event it appears range bound pending the dividend announcement, which means relatively minor risk +/- 5% to the upside or downside. Notwithstanding unexpected good or bad news.

[mikeybycrikey]

Thanks Winner, I reread the same update looking for this today and missed it..... Good to know. It will be interesting to see the full year one, but at least 56% of revenue is reasonably well entrenched re competition.

With international being 12% of passengers and 44% of revenue, this would be in line with the increased operating costs of international.

Interesting to see the yield in domestic is $0.275 versus international of $0.108 which is in line with RTFQ comment on domestic making most of AIRs profits.

I find it interesting that over the past couple of years, revenue from both Domestic and long haul have grown but Tasman seems to have stagnated in $ terms. That means that Tasman has dropped from 27% of rev to 24%, while Long Haul has gone from 41% to 44%, and domestic has stayed steady at 31%.

As Workingdad has mentioned, domestic yield is much higher at 27c/km than international at 10.8 c/km, but the fixed costs have fewer km's to spread the cost over, so yield should be higher.

It's pretty hard to know how profitable routes are based on yield (or RPK or load factor) alone.

[Raz]

I find it interesting that over the past couple of years, revenue from both Domestic and long haul have grown but Tasman seems to have stagnated in $ terms. That means that Tasman has dropped from 27% of rev to 24%, while Long Haul has gone from 41% to 44%, and domestic has stayed steady at 31%.

As Workingdad has mentioned, domestic yield is much higher at 27c/km than international at 10.8 c/km, but the fixed costs have fewer km's to spread the cost over, so yield should be higher.

It's pretty hard to know how profitable routes are based on yield (or RPK or load factor) alone.

Naturally its commercially sensitive info. they would not want route breakdowns being determined from what is public.

Low volume day..waiting for the next move by the market..my TA and econometric model says more likely to drift lower than higher re CP.

[winner69]

..my TA and econometric model says more likely to drift lower than higher re CP.

...with or without a flux capacitor

[Snow Leopard]

Qantas Adds New Service Across Tasman (http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1607/S00844/qantas-adds-new-service-across-tasman.htm)

To Melbourne* and Beyond!
http://tesco.scene7.com/is/image/tesco/207-9610_PI_TPS1113610?wid=384&ht=384

*Also an extended service to Brisbane, batteries not included.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Raz]

Qantas Adds New Service Across Tasman (http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1607/S00844/qantas-adds-new-service-across-tasman.htm)

To Melbourne* and Beyond!
http://tesco.scene7.com/is/image/tesco/207-9610_PI_TPS1113610?wid=384&ht=384

*Also an extended service to Brisbane, batteries not included.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

hmmm depends what hat i put on, great for the SI, not so great as a as a shareholder of air auckland....air New Zealand I meant to say.

[mayday]

Thinking of a holiday escape to LA for three weeks in September. Have just browsed ticket fares on both Qantas and AirNZ websites, return flights from CHC to LAX, depart on Sep 2 and return on Sep 23, quoted on AirNZ NZD964 vs. Qantas NZD1749 (both include taxes).Geee that is a huge discount given by Air NZ, remembered one way to LA used to be $900.

[Raz]

Thinking of a holiday escape to LA for three weeks in September. Have just browsed ticket fares on both Qantas and AirNZ websites, return flights from CHC to LAX, depart on Sep 2 and return on Sep 23, quoted on AirNZ NZD964 vs. Qantas NZD1749 (both include taxes).Geee that is a huge discount given by Air NZ, remembered one way to LA used to be $900.

Your also talking about September which should be high demand given school holidays and many private schools having three week holidays at that time. We are going over...although exams start to get in the way of older child families...Qantas and AA will have discounts again soon although AIR is good from chch with no domestic fight delay risk..


I fly chch to lax monthly for business, AA and Qantas have been averaging 1000$ return which has brought AIR own fares down to match from April. Now below $1000, my overall budget spend for the year will be half last years...

Asia is heading the same way... and for product from Christchurch to Europe you would not choose AIR.

The good thing is even moderate trading on AIR in the past 12 months will have provided stella returns...has for me...AIR and competition has been a win win!

[winner69]

I've had a chat with Emmett and he has told me how to utilise a flux capacitor in the model (as suggested by a poster this morning)

Will do that overnight and report back tomorrow

Fitted the flux capacitor (thanks Emmett) to the model and added a bit of econometric modelling .......

......and today is going to be just an up day but we need to wait until early next week for that watershed day when price shoots through 220 .....to 225 plus

[winner69]

Interesting thanks, credit to Hoop who has obviously thought of this before now (not surprising). It pretty much shows that either there is no correlation of AIR to Brent Crude, or that AIR very cleverly manage their oil price hedges which by ergo have no correlation to share price. I think the latter, but the former is the result. I will still do my own analysis, to be sure.

Baabaa - Come to any conclusions?

[Raz]

Fitted the flux capacitor (thanks Emmett) to the model and added a bit of econometric modelling .......

......and today is going to be just an up day but we need to wait until early next week for that watershed day when price shoots through 220 .....to 225 plus
Did you data mine it right??

[Beagle]

AIR management said in their investor day briefing a while back they expect yields to normalise in FY18. Airlines can't keep selling return fares to Honk Kong and LA for $999, its not sustainable over the long run.
Don't get too worried about short term specials affecting average yield...these things have a way of averaging themselves out over time...besides that fuel is dirt cheap at present.

That said I do think people need to look through the forthcoming final / special divvy and understand there's a new competitive landscape. Having too many eggs in one basket doesn't make sense to me but each to their own.

[see weed]

AIR sp creeping up again. See what happens at end of day with the down pushers. Or have they finished? Wouldn't mind getting a few more, can't think of anything else better to buy at the moment:confused:.

[Beagle]

AIR sp creeping up again. See what happens at end of day with the down pushers. Or have they finished? Wouldn't mind getting a few more, can't think of anything else better to buy at the moment:confused:.

If you carefully "weigh" up your options you'll find other "juicy" value alternatives out there. Just look at the "scale" of other options out there mate :)

[winner69]

Today heading to be that watershed day after all -220 plus

Model not working. The flux capacitor helped it so must have been that econometric stuff i added (too much data mining possibly)

Back to the drawing board i fear

[workingdad]

Qantas Adds New Service Across Tasman (http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1607/S00844/qantas-adds-new-service-across-tasman.htm)

To Melbourne* and Beyond!
http://tesco.scene7.com/is/image/tesco/207-9610_PI_TPS1113610?wid=384&ht=384

*Also an extended service to Brisbane, batteries not included.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger


:rolleyes:

[see weed]

If you carefully "weigh" up your options you'll find other "juicy" value alternatives out there. Just look at the "scale" of other options out there mate :)
Not so many sellers tonight:) Looking good to me. Ended up buying a few more at close, also picked up a few HLG, but will get some SCL at some stage.

[workingdad]

Today heading to be that watershed day after all -220 plus

Model not working. The flux capacitor helped it so must have been that econometric stuff i added (too much data mining possibly)

Back to the drawing board i fear

I have run out of correction tape on AIR a number of times :p

Low volume today but its in the right direction again. Fridays have been a bit of a test for AIR of late though.....

[couta1]

Not so many sellers tonight:) Looking good to me. Ended up buying a few more at close, also picked up a few HLG, but will get some SCL at some stage. I love your enthusiasm see weed, like a breath of fresh Air.

[Snow Leopard]

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-AIR/20160728-NZX-AIR-2.png

Spot the bargains!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Marilyn Munroe]

Crikey cobbers Virgin(Underarm Bowlers Division) has thrown a sickie.

Sydney Morning Herald;

"Virgin Australia posts $225 million loss as restructuring costs bite."

http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/virgin-australia-posts-225-million-loss-as-restructuring-costs-bite-20160728-gqfgzj.html

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[winner69]

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-AIR/20160728-NZX-AIR-2.png

Spot the bargains!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Yes indeed

219 is very very cheap and a real bargain

[Baa_Baa]

Steep down trend line broken to the upside, short term rising trend line remains in force. Overhead resistance range $2.25 - $2.31. Low volume, minnows in charge of proceedings today but thin buy support above 2.15 and plenty of sellers above 2.20. Sure is interesting.

[Beagle]

Crikey cobbers Virgin(Underarm Bowlers Division) has thrown a sickie.

Sydney Morning Herald;

"Virgin Australia posts $225 million loss as restructuring costs bite."

http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/virgin-australia-posts-225-million-loss-as-restructuring-costs-bite-20160728-gqfgzj.html

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Very surprised your Etihad people can't see this mis-managed pup for what it is. Must be an abundance of surplus petro dollars sloshing around for sand airlines even with the low oil price !
If Virgin can't make decent money with the most favourable tailwinds in 50 years of aviation when can they ? Congrats to Chris Luxon for being the only one with the gonads to call Borghetti out as being inept. Even better he basically said he goes or we go. Mark of a good leader he had the courage to ostensibly extricate AIR from this hideous mess. Just a tiny 2.5% shareholding to sell and Ansett MK2 will be done and dusted with far less damage than last time round.

[Raz]

Steep down trend line broken to the upside, short term rising trend line remains in force. Overhead resistance range $2.25 - $2.31. Low volume, minnows in charge of proceedings today but thin buy support above 2.15 and plenty of sellers above 2.20. Sure is interesting.

Yes interesting however hardly exciting!

[Marilyn Munroe]

Very surprised your Etihad people can't see this mis-managed pup for what it is. ......
If Virgin can't make decent money with the most favourable tailwinds in 50 years of aviation when can they ? ... extricate AIR from this hideous mess. .... Ansett MK2 will be done and dusted with far less damage than last time round.

This is the second time that Cullen Airlines has gone big in the Land of Underarm Bowlers and failed to get a fair suck of the sav.

Some strategic thinking is needed in the board room of Cullen Airlines. Is the prize of the Aussie market worth the risk? If it is what should be done different next time so it does not come a gutser like last two times.

Should Cullen Airlines just fly across the ditch and resell seats for passengers transferring to Aussie domestic flights? Should passengers wishing to travel beyond Aussie be transferred over to Etihad metal?

Roger, Etihad knows a mismanaged pup when they see one. After all they brought into Alitalia.

Boo boop de do
Marilyn

[Beagle]

Today is going to be another watershed day when the price bursts well into the 220's

We might get takeoff today mate, end of the trading month and all, maybe some window dressing by insto's at the close too.

Marilyn, AIR should just stick to their own knitting and stay out of investing in Australia and let VAH and QAN eat each others lunch. I asked C.L. at the 2014 annual meeting what the rationale was for the VAH stake and got the most unconvincing answer of the day. I don't think he's ever been 100% on board with Rob Fyfe's vision in that regard...at least he had the courage to do something about it !

[sb9]

We might get takeoff today mate, end of the trading month and all, maybe some window dressing by insto's at the close too.

Surely as we march into the 220s range...how is that capacitor working now winner..

[winner69]

Surely as we march into the 220s range...how is that capacitor working now winner..

.......Emmett told me how to fine tune it so I won't be 2 days out next week

I've asked Emmett to work on a special resistor that allows $3 resistance barriers to be eliminated. He's working on it but i told him i might need it in September

[bull....]

brought back in yest as it was holging up to well to get down to 2.05 again 2.30 today?

[Nasi Goreng]

.......Emmett told me how to fine tune it so I won't be 2 days out next week

I've asked Emmett to work on a special resistor that allows $3 resistance barriers to be eliminated. He's working on it but i told him i might need it in September

He will definitely need 1 point 21 gigawatts to make that work.

[see weed]

Aye, I gotta feeling the price wants to go up more, but there is 2 sellers at 2.23 selling 80,000. So come you guys and gals, lets smash through it, and push sp up to 2.25, and we all be happy:t_up:.

[see weed]

Aye, I gotta feeling the price wants to go up more, but there is 2 sellers at 2.23 selling 80,000. So come you guys and gals, lets smash through it, and push sp up to 2.25, and we all be happy:t_up:.
I'm good for 10,000. You go first Roger and break the ice:D, lets cause a frenzy, we all know the sp is on it's way up, so you might as well get in now while the goings good.

[Jantar]

Aye, I gotta feeling the price wants to go up more, but there is 2 sellers at 2.23 selling 80,000. So come you guys and gals, lets smash through it, and push sp up to 2.25, and we all be happy:t_up:.Not yet please. I won't have enough spare cash for another 3 weeks, then I'll buy more AIR :cool:

[Beagle]

I'm good for 10,000. You go first Roger and break the ice:D, lets cause a frenzy, we all know the sp is on it's way up, so you might as well get in now while the goings good.

LOL mate. The ol Rodge would have been in like flynn pounding away at your behest...the new more circumspect one, (the one that's taken a few good clubbings to the temple) is far more careful and looks for canny down-draft / air pocket opportunities :) Me ol mate Couta1 out of gas...I guess we'll have to rely on other buyers and insto's for end of month window dressing.

On the next air pocket / downdraft I'll be looking to hoover up some more :sneaky2:

[see weed]

Inch by inch slowly creeping up, could be at 2.30 - 2.35 by reporting day. I'm happy with 1c a day gain.

[brend]

Marilyn Munroe always leaves a sour taste in my mouth when I read his posts, always seems to be negative.

In other news....

Annual Shareholders’ Meeting
Air New Zealand Limited advises that its Annual Shareholders’ Meeting will be held at the Air Force Museum of New Zealand, 45 Harvard Avenue, Christchurch, on Friday 30 September 2016 at 2.00pm.
Air New Zealand will be offering in addition to our usual meeting, an online attendance option this year, giving shareholders the choice to attend and participate in the Annual Meeting via an online platform. Details of registration for those who wish to participate online will be included in the Notice of Meeting sent after the 2016 Annual Results on 26 August 2016.

Nomination of Directors
Nominations for the position of director may be made on or before 5pm Friday 12 August 2016. Nominations must be made in writing by a security holder entitled to attend and vote at the Meeting, and should be directed to the Company Secretary at Air New Zealand, Private Bag 92007, Auckland 1142. (This announcement is made pursuant to NZX Listing Rule 3.3.5 and ASX Listing Rule 14.3).

[winner69]

Close week 215 - down 11 cents for the week

Not a good week. Was it the operating stats? Or just punters don't like AIR any more?

One consolation - after the last decent weekly fall there was 4 UP weeks

Weekly close tells us the real sentiment

This week an UP week following last weeks disaster

At 221 still less than 2 weeks ago but st least AIR is on a roll

Another UP week next week I reckon

[Raz]

Marilyn Munroe always leaves a sour taste in my mouth when I read his posts, always seems to be negative.

In other news....

Annual Shareholders’ Meeting
Air New Zealand Limited advises that its Annual Shareholders’ Meeting will be held at the Air Force Museum of New Zealand, 45 Harvard Avenue, Christchurch, on Friday 30 September 2016 at 2.00pm.
Air New Zealand will be offering in addition to our usual meeting, an online attendance option this year, giving shareholders the choice to attend and participate in the Annual Meeting via an online platform. Details of registration for those who wish to participate online will be included in the Notice of Meeting sent after the 2016 Annual Results on 26 August 2016.

Nomination of Directors
Nominations for the position of director may be made on or before 5pm Friday 12 August 2016. Nominations must be made in writing by a security holder entitled to attend and vote at the Meeting, and should be directed to the Company Secretary at Air New Zealand, Private Bag 92007, Auckland 1142. (This announcement is made pursuant to NZX Listing Rule 3.3.5 and ASX Listing Rule 14.3).

Good grief I'm back home the day before the AGM date, I actually can make the AGM for a change..soo many good things to talk about..guess they will try to deflect it all with a decent dividend haha Low volumes made it tricky to pick up the number of shares I would have liked this week...

[Beagle]

Good grief I'm back home the day before the AGM date, I actually can make the AGM for a change..soo many good things to talk about..guess they will try to deflect it all with a decent dividend haha Low volumes made it tricky to pick up the number of shares I would have liked this week...

I think you might be in charge on the annual meeting in terms of reporting back on here this year. Mind you if there's a decent number of others heading down from Auckland I could be persuaded to make a day of it nas long as we're flying with AIR, (jet-hole on my never again at any price list).

[Nasi Goreng]

There's going to be an online webcast option. I would like more companies to do this.

[Raz]

There's going to be an online webcast option. I would like more companies to do this.

Should be standard now, even if the AGM is where you are located, sometimes easier than travelling across town to keep an eye on proceedings via laptop or phone.

ps Rodger, people outside Auckland are not randoms or zombies and you can venture out of the city without weight of numbers...:-)

[Beagle]

LOL I do know a few so I'm pretty sure you're right :) but there's more fun in numbers. Couple of years ago we tied in a trip to the Chch AIR AGM with a ST group meeting afterwards...was a bit of fun...not sure if I can get away from under the mountain of paperwork I have at present...we'll see.

[see weed]

Roger a happy man tonight, all your stars getting in line....SLC, AIR, PGW, ATM etc, I know I am:t_up:.

[winner69]

Roger a happy man tonight, all your stars getting in line....SLC, AIR, PGW, ATM etc, I know I am:t_up:.

Hunting for Value pays off eh

[winner69]

That flux capacitor i fitted is doing the trick

Hope Emmett gets that special gadget that breaks down resistance at $3 up and running sooner than later

[Beagle]

Roger a happy man tonight, all your stars getting in line....SLC, AIR, PGW, ATM etc, I know I am:t_up:.


Hunting for Value pays off eh


Its funny guys...ever since I got the "legend" mocker off my back and changed my handle to something more appropriate my luck has turned very nicely. I'm thinking our good mate Couta1 might have a quiet bevvy or two tonight as well...he's been doing a bit of hunting for value too :)

[workingdad]

I think I have to take some of the credit, I didn't end up buying more although I came close - had I bought more I am sure it would have gone down farther haha.

I am happy with my holdings and will be happier to see a close higher than 2.27 which will be another higher high after setting the higher low and from a chart point of view a sign of being bullish.

Perhaps the experts on charts can add to this......

[Baa_Baa]

I think I have to take some of the credit, I didn't end up buying more although I came close - had I bought more I am sure it would have gone down farther haha.

I am happy with my holdings and will be happier to see a close higher than 2.27 which will be another higher high after setting the higher low and from a chart point of view a sign of being bullish.

Perhaps the experts on charts can add to this......

Hardly an expert, though the daily broke up through the 50EMA today and the daily chart sure looks good pulling up and away from the short term rising trend line. Plenty of overhead resistance around the 2.28-2.31-2.35 mark. Still good upside and the daily's could sell, take profits anywhere that suits them. Certainly some good short term profits already for the quick and nimble.

The trusty weekly chart, for the slightly more conservative capital manager, definitely fired the signal today (10EMA) but hasn't pulled the trigger (14EMA at 2.27). The brave weekly chart follower might buy a close above 2.27 breakout (tomorrow?) but would be wary of the 2.35 resistance. The devoted weekly chart follower might wait for a weekly close at least above 2.27 (yes that's the close on Friday this week), and preferably above 2.35, then it's all go. Noting 2.45ish though is also a major resistance being the rising trend line support for years, but now resistance. That's the thing with charts that have gutted themselves, there's heaps of resistance risks above the current price. But many were also the failed supports, so are less risky or reliable than might appear at first glance.

Yes, I know this leaves a few percentage points on the table, by not buying the lows or rushing into the daily trend line confidence, but it also eliminates a lot of the short term risks. The weekly devotees are looking for a confirmed trend, up or down. It's about confirmation in as much as one could expect from something as fickle as the share market. Depends really on how one choses to manage their capital and how quick and nimble they are as traders.

All this is caveated by what we don't know we don't know. News out of nowhere can change it in an instant, either up, or down.

[Raz]

Its funny guys...ever since I got the "legend" mocker off my back and changed my handle to something more appropriate my luck has turned very nicely. I'm thinking our good mate Couta1 might have a quiet bevvy or two tonight as well...he's been doing a bit of hunting for value too :)

Good to see some joy/relief return to this forum...

[bull....]

2.27 key level to watch , multiple patterns in play around this level on both daily and weekly all bullish

[sb9]

That flux capacitor i fitted is doing the trick

Hope Emmett gets that special gadget that breaks down resistance at $3 up and running sooner than later

We might push to that 230 mark today by the looks....oil down overnight also helps the sentiment a bit.

[winner69]

We might push to that 230 mark today by the looks....oil down overnight also helps the sentiment a bit.

Everybody is bullish and the charts are bullish

That's good

I'm thinking of the future now - whatvwill happen around the $3 mark this time?

[Raz]

Everybody is bullish and the charts are bullish

That's good

I'm thinking of the future now - whatvwill happen around the $3 mark this time?

If it goes anywhere near $3 i will be making silly money...AIR will have been a money printer in the past 12...

[Beagle]

Our mate Couta1 with his XXXXXXXL positon will be getting some good AIR off his ski jumps this morning :)

[vin]

Everybody is bullish and the charts are bullish

That's good

I'm thinking of the future now - whatvwill happen around the $3 mark this time?

That'll be the day when it reaches $3 again, TBH I'll be well out of AIR at that stage, waiting for my exit... May take ages yet. Licking my wounds at the moment

[see weed]

I love your enthusiasm see weed, like a breath of fresh Air.
So who's the happy man today I wonder...Mr couta1 man:D.

[sb9]

Everybody is bullish and the charts are bullish

That's good

I'm thinking of the future now - whatvwill happen around the $3 mark this time?

The way I see it is Mr Market pricing in FY final divvy + a possible special...not sure I agree with reaching $3 mark though, but if it does will be very Happy!!!

[Beagle]

So who's the happy man today I wonder...Mr couta1 man:D.

If its fine today at the ski field our mate Couta1 when he gets to the top of the chair lift will feel like he's on top of the world ! God knows we all need a bit of light relief after this extremely turbulent ride.
Special's almost a certainty I reckon.

[Balance]

Everybody is bullish and the charts are bullish

That's good

I'm thinking of the future now - whatvwill happen around the $3 mark this time?

Oil price is down 20% from the peak it reached in June this year. Coincidentally (or not) AIR sp started falling as well as the oil price rose.

Given the outlook now that oil is likely to fall lower and stay low for the rest of this year, AIR looks good.

An announcement regarding a special dividend or share buyback - that will be viewed very positively by the market.

[Tony Two Gloves]

I would be happy to get the Divvy and the Special and then exit at around $2.40. Afraid I'm also in the Couta bracket and severely overweight with 75,000 shares owing $2.18. Whilst $10K up at today's price I am comfortable holding. Have always thought if I get stuck with this one I will be happy to hold and have been a believer in this Company for a long time.

[dobby41]

God knows we all need a bit of light relief after this extremely turbulent ride.
Special's almost a certainty I reckon.

Do you think the wild ride is over?

[Balance]

Do you think the wild ride is over?

Headwinds now tailwinds.

Who knows when the weather will change again!

[trader_jackson]

This stock is still struggling to take off in my view...;)

[GR8DAY]

......looking like a dangerous time to be selling IMHO. In fact I think I'll buy some more.........divvy and all that is. Down the slippery slope and hopefully all the way back up again........or at least MOST of the way back up. I'd be happy with that.

[Beagle]

Do you think the wild ride is over?

I think we've all learned over the last six months or so how tough the aviation game can be. In many respects what KW once said to me is right. The aviation industry worldwide is full of egotistical leaders who all think they have the right recipe for expansion and dominance. Its seems they can't help themselves...expand, expand, expand ! I think AIR's management have learned a valuable lesson from their time with VAH. When I asked Mr Luxon after the 2014 annual meeting what the rationale was for the investment in VAH the answer I got surprised me. We can't just stay a small niche airline in N.Z. or that's the words I recall to the best of my recollection. But that in fact is exactly what they are and they shouldn't aspire to be anything else in my view. If they do things well and stick to their knitting and don't try to grow too fast then they should do okay. I think the shares are good value fundamentally at the current level relative to most other NZX stocks and relative to their peers internationally but the aviation industry by its very nature is a volatile one.

I hold about 8% of my portfolio in AIR, not looking to increase that. Hope that somewhat evasive answer is helpful :)

[janner]

Chatter... IMHO.

Disc. None.

[Master98]

VAH successfully completed capital rising, so $300m AIR loan to VAH will be surely repaid, VAH will run a top-up program at A$0.26 to HNA for up to 19.2%, so will AIR feed 2.6% VHA holding to NANSHAN to keep their 19.9% holding? all looks are tailwinds:)

[Beagle]

VAH successfully completed capital rising, so $300m AIR loan to VAH will be surely repaid, VAH will run a top-up program at A$0.26 to HNA for up to 19.2%, so will AIR feed 2.6% VHA holding to NANSHAN to keep their 19.9% holding? all looks are tailwinds:)

You might want to check your numbers mate. Going off memory the loan to VAH is more like 140 something million $A but agree that this loan will be repaid, in fact it was a condition of the capital raise so repayment will be effected imminently if it hasn't already. The new era of hightened competition is not a tailwind.

[Beagle]

Gotta be happy with that eh Couta1 ? Go skiing and make more money than if you'd been working...life is good some days isn't it !

[couta1]

Gotta be happy with that eh Couta1 ? Go skiing and make more money than if you'd been working...life is good some days isn't it ! Counting my blessings that's for sure mate and yes see weed a happy man. Not expecting perfect flying conditions going forward but my FA Gutometer values this share around the $2.50-$2.60 level, that's with the competition thing priced in. The weighing machine is working again and the patient will be/have been rewarded for hanging in there.

[Raz]

That'll be the day when it reaches $3 again, TBH I'll be well out of AIR at that stage, waiting for my exit... May take ages yet. Licking my wounds at the moment

I agree, you are not alone wanting to offload from what I hear, so expect it to be bumpy, the SP has to survive ex dividend with an uncertain competition cloud which will again be signalled at year end. Low air fuel allows others to keep up the competition while if fuel stayed higher for longer more likely to drop competing routes quicker.

[Balance]

I agree, you are not alone wanting to offload from what I hear, so expect it to be bumpy, the SP has to survive ex dividend with an uncertain competition cloud which will again be signalled at year end. Low air fuel allows others to keep up the competition while if fuel stayed higher for longer more likely to drop competing routes quicker.

The market is a funny place and short term, it is all about human psychology for the vast majority of investors, traders and watchers than anything to do with fundamentals.

As a sp goes down, those who buys shares to invest long term start having doubts, get fearful and actually sell rather than buy more.

As a sp goes up, those who are looking to sell start getting greedy and actually start buying more.

That's why sp overshoots on the way down and on the way up.

Where is AIR? Tails winds vs head winds now - in the absence of anything adverse happening, my pick is that it will go back to $2.60 - half way between recent lows and highs. Sentiment could push it back up beyond $2.60 but fundamental value (consensus) is around $2.65.

[Beagle]

Big falls in U.S. airlines stocks overnight on concerns regarding passenger yield, (Delta's yield down 7% YOY in July). Keep you seat belt fastened today folks.

[winner69]

Big falls in U.S. airlines stocks overnight on concerns regarding passenger yield, (Delta's yield down 7% YOY in July). Keep you seat belt fastened today folks.


Pretty weak correlation between AIR and ^XAL on a daily / weekly basis so no worries

I said last Wednesday was going to be a watershed day - actually was Friday

Up 17 cents since last Wed - 8% not too bad for a few days work

[sb9]

Pretty weak correlation between AIR and ^XAL on a daily / weekly basis so no worries


Couldn't agree more, AIR never directly correlated to XAL movement be it up or down...and what's holding the price today is bargain hunters trying to take positions for upcoming FY results in few weeks time.

[BlackPeter]

AIR still happens to be on my watchlist (it is a good company after all, and I used to make money with them) - and it just took its turn for a wee review.

As well - trying to understand some of the hype in this thread ...

Fundamentals:
forward PE: 4.3 - Great ... however, even optimistic analysts predict this year to be the best ... all downhill from here.
average P/E (last 6 years): 15.3; not that flash for a cyclical stock in a downtrend ...
SP to NTA: 1.4 (ok-ish, but I remember times when it was smaller than 1 ... this might be a better time to buy)
Consensus of 6 Analysts (4traders): $2.22 to $2.60 with a mean value of $2.42 and a "Hold" recommendation;

Industry:
Cyclical and many airlines are currently loosing margins due to increasing overcapacity (some are making losses). Rising tensions around the world might put a damper on travel ... though cheap oil is obviously an enabler - and NZ tourism might have another good summer (though not quite sure, how the BREXIT will impact on that).

Trend:
8203
Well - hands up, if you think this is an uptrend ...

So - not sure, traders can push it anywhere, but from a fundamental analysis it looks fair valued at best, and the trend speaks for itself.

Wouldn't be surprised if the SP holds (or lightly rises) until the dividend is declared ... and steeply drops after it goes ex dividend.

Anyway - I will keep them on the long-term watchlist ... I am sure, there will be times I see them again as BUY, but not now. Much more attractive below $1.50 or thereabouts ...

Discl: not holding;

obviously: DYOR - my crystal ball is cloudy!

[Joshuatree]

I for one always appreciate you sharing your nous BP.Sure looks like AIR is trying to form a new trend but too early to tell imo.Im not far off being in the black and look forward to bailing out of AIR. Tempting to jump after the div without a parachute (i.e. seeing if i can direct my flailing limbs towards that stretchy soft landing net) but many others may be thinking the same.Timing is everything.

World first: Skydiver plummets 25,000 ft -- with no parachute - CNN.com (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0ahUKEwitz4aVwabOAhUCHpQKHYfDDNIQFggcMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2016%2F07%2F31%2Fus %2Fskydiver-no-parachute-successful-landing-trnd%2F&usg=AFQjCNGfMx7JsOX3jTN0q-ln5-6vrP8R4A&sig2=HWZDu2hEfxYn_PnCummV0A)

[Beagle]

10 year average PE is about 11. Forecast NTA at 30 June 2016 is $2.01 so price to NTA is only 1.15 using consensus NTA analyst figure. Consensus PE next year is 4.8 taking into account average analysts expected impact on FY17 earnings so trading at well under half the 10 year average PE despite expected effects of extra competition in FY17. Stock looks good value relative to its peers most of whom trade on FY17 PE of circa 6 and most at significantly higher premiums to NTA despite the apparently lacklustre outlook for the sector.

I agree the shares will drop by the amount of the dividend as soon as it goes ex but astute followers of the dividend stripping theory will know the chances of relative outperformance in the few weeks before and after going ex are high on the balance of probabilities.

I'd like to see it crack the 100 day MA line, thanks for the chart and good luck getting them at circa $1.50...there might be one or two people just ahead of you in the queue hunting for value at that price :)

http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEALAND-LIMITED-6491407/financials/

[couta1]

BP there's bargin hunting and fire sale hunting, methinks your in the latter category, but you have to be optimistic, right. Your crystal ball seems cloudier than a mountain white out.

[BlackPeter]

BP there's bargin hunting and fire sale hunting, methinks your in the latter category, but you have to be optimistic, right. Your crystal ball seems cloudier than a mountain white out.

Hmm, yes ... I do prefer to buy undervalued shares, but that's just my personal preference ;). Re the cloudiness of my crystal ball - I guess this is much easier to assess after the event, but you well might be right. It is not always correct, but than - more often than not.

[Snow Leopard]

Report landed :mellow: on my desktop this morning which, in world ranking, places AIR

41st by revenue and
59th by RPK.

QAN (15 & 22)
VAH (39 & 53)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[couta1]

Report landed :mellow: on my desktop this morning which, in world ranking, places AIR

41st by revenue and
59th by RPK.

QAN (15 & 22)
VAH (39 & 53)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger Just shows you what a Dog VAH really is, ahead of Air on revenue yet needing constant life support to keep it flying, and Qantas, good airline but no divvy even with all that revenue.

[Snow Leopard]

Just shows you what a Dog VAH really is, ahead of Air on revenue yet needing constant life support to keep it flying, and Qantas, good airline but no divvy even with all that revenue.

And yet both are probably better, or at least less worse investments, than AIR at the present.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[couta1]

And yet both are probably better, or at least less worse investments, than AIR at the present.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger Yeah right, perhaps you should follow your own advice re thinking first.

[Arbroath]

And yet both are probably better, or at least less worse investments, than AIR at the present.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PT

are you seriously saying VAH and QAN are better investments than AIR? If so I think you've taken leave of your senses. AIR actually has a domestic franchise business to support it (QAN does too but definitely not VAH). AIR has made money consistently across the cycles post the Ansett debacle. Most other airlines globally not so much. Actually Southwest has a BBB+ investment grade rating in the US and AIR is BBB and QAN lost its rating only a few years ago when AIR was still profitable.

[workingdad]

yep, like you Couta1, revenue and RPK are only part of the overall FA of an airline, obviously profit and expenses are also a pretty major factor. As per those stats compare Qantas and VAH being higher on the ranking list and what divvy??

[iceman]

PT

are you seriously saying VAH and QAN are better investments than AIR? If so I think you've taken leave of your senses. AIR actually has a domestic franchise business to support it (QAN does too but definitely not VAH). AIR has made money consistently across the cycles post the Ansett debacle. Most other airlines globally not so much. Actually Southwest has a BBB+ investment grade rating in the US and AIR is BBB and QAN lost its rating only a few years ago when AIR was still profitable.

Or more to the point, are any airlines good investments at present ?
Many European airlines have come out in the last few days with gloomy outlook and profit warnings.
Lufthansa has changed their outlook from a healthy increase in profits to a profit downgrade saying a significant reduction in forward bookings has been noted, particularly long haul and mentions flights to Asia being dramtically hit. Shares fell 8% after the announcement.

Easy Jet says outlook has not been worse for a decade. Terrorist attacks and continuous strikes by airport workers across Europe have lead to thousands of cancellations. Shares down 4-5%.

Consolodated Airlines Group (BA & Iberia) have seen share price down around 30% since BREXIT.

Rynair said future uncertain and will now not introduce new planes as planned, to its UK business.

Wizz Air, Icelandair, Norwegian and SAS all warning of tough times ahead.

Delta Airlines reducing winter schedule to UK/Europe and United indicated it will do the same.

Not my cup of tea I´m afraid.

[Beagle]

Always appreciate your sound posts Iceman. No question terrorism is having an impact on the demand into / out of Europe. Its clear there are many bad apples in the barrel in term of refugees who have fled the Middle east conflicts.

Fortunately AIR has very modest capacity to fill on it's own planes into that part of the world.

[iceman]

That´s very true Roger although AIR´s profitable domestic network relies on tourists, many from Europe, to keep the planes full.
My post was more about pointing out some gathering clouds for the industry as a whole, clouds that are quite dark at present. Worth watching in my view mate.

[Raz]

That´s very true Roger although AIR´s profitable domestic network relies on tourists, many from Europe, to keep the planes full.
My post was more about pointing out some gathering clouds for the industry as a whole, clouds that are quite dark at present. Worth watching in my view mate.

Personally I'm stunned how quickly the world wide commercial airline outlook has turned.

Also best not to pixx off the locals especially if tourism were to drop off. See below, been waiting for this to be raised. When the weather is bad from Christchurch into Wellington or Queenstown you do not want to be on a ATR 72..chances are they will turn around and take you back to Christchurch. After the first few times this happened everyone now wants to book on the airbus which is now limited flights...

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/82769956/turbo-props-slower-noisier-more-cramped-does-air-nz-think-christchurch-travellers-are-suckers

[emveha]

Wouldn't be surprised if the SP holds (or lightly rises) until the dividend is declared ... and steeply drops after it goes ex dividend.

Why should it drop (of more than the value of the dividend)?

[Fox]

Why should it drop (of more than the value of the dividend)?

Shareholders that may want out now might wait until it goes ex-div just to receive the juicy div. Also will be a few dividend strippers out there looking for the special dividend to take. This would put added selling pressure after ex-div.

[Snow Leopard]

PT

are you seriously saying VAH and QAN are better investments than AIR? If so I think you've taken leave of your senses. AIR actually has a domestic franchise business to support it (QAN does too but definitely not VAH). AIR has made money consistently across the cycles post the Ansett debacle. Most other airlines globally not so much. Actually Southwest has a BBB+ investment grade rating in the US and AIR is BBB and QAN lost its rating only a few years ago when AIR was still profitable.

Well I have consistenly over the entire time I have been on Sharetrader said that I do not believe that one should invest in any airline.

FYI Currently VAH has a domestic network and QAN has an investment grade rating.


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger