AIR - Air NZ.

[Zaphod]

Does the plane have to wait for safety briefing to finish?

The briefing must take place before take-off. This however does not preclude the briefing from occurring during pushback or taxiing.

My take on the safety videos is that as long as there is a balance between the entertainment component and effective dissemination of safety information, then these sorts of videos are worthwhile.
The bland and boring style I regularly endure on other carriers makes NZ's approach very refreshing and personally, I have found myself pay far more attention.

[skid]

$500m the mid point of their forecast range gives 32 cps after tax. The reason for my work on free cash flow and capex was to establish whether the company is in a position to pay 20 cps in dividends going forward. $400m, the bottom end of their forecast range gives 25.6 cps. They have the balance sheet strength to pay that dividend for the foreseeable future and they're already broadly in a neutral new capex position relative to depreciation taking into account progress payments already made on new aircraft so perhaps the question is why wouldn't they ? Obviously the Government like their share of cash, (its not an accident they paid out the full proceeds of the Virgin sale). Interestingly on your last point Qan declined to give a profit forecast and last year the company didn't give a half year forecast until the annual meeting at the end of Sept, so as you say its a good thing that they're being so forthcoming so early in the year but people I am sure can understand because its so early in the year they had to give a wide range to account for a wide variety of possible future scenario's, hence the $400 - $600m.

Winner you are absolutely right. This pure bred hound has had to endure listening to highly experienced investors bleating for years that AIR can never make money because of their high current and future capex....to the point where it made my ears hurt. Those investors don't seem to have been able to understand the basic's that AIR are thoroughly modernising their fleet, go figure ?

Now I've shown their capex is broadly neutral for the next 3 years and then we can subsequently look forward to approx half a decade of tremendous cash flow with minimal capex its funny how they've gone quiet isn't it.

If Raz one of our favourite resident horse traders is looking at this stock more and more as an investment maybe long term investment in this airline isn't as crazy as it sounds after all.


Do you think that qualifies as a steep drop in underlying earnings? (Air New Zealands words-CL?) Im seeing a much rosier picture painted by posters, than by the Company--I may be labelled a ''naysayer'' but It appears Im in good company.
Anyone have a good explanation why the Company would say something like that? (Im more than happy to stand corrected)
If they (potentially) make half of what they made this year-(because of more expensive oil and more competition) then,aside from the divy,whats going to hold up the share price?

[see weed]

Do you think that qualifies as a steep drop in underlying earnings? (Air New Zealands words-CL?) Im seeing a much rosier picture painted by posters, than by the Company--I may be labelled a ''naysayer'' but It appears Im in good company.
Anyone have a good explanation why the Company would say something like that? (Im more than happy to stand corrected)
If they (potentially) make half of what they made this year-(because of more expensive oil and more competition) then,aside from the divy,whats going to hold up the share price?
I am going to hold up the share price. It will be too tempting not to with that big yield. And if the sp goes to low, then more buyers will just keep buying. Lot of sellers now before ex day will be back at the right price. And a lot of buyers now before ex day will not want to sell too much after ex day because it will only push the value of their shares down. If the price of oil goes up, then it might push out a bit of the competition. If sp goes back to 1.90, then I would buy more, but if it did, I'm sure it wouldn't be there for long. In fact, would probably start buying in $2.05c. There's going to be a bit of money floating around on pay day:).

[peat]

I am going to hold up the share price. .
:ohmy: that's a bold thing to say. see weed is actually Zeuss!!

[Beagle]

Do you think that qualifies as a steep drop in underlying earnings? (Air New Zealands words-CL?) Im seeing a much rosier picture painted by posters, than by the Company--I may be labelled a ''naysayer'' but It appears Im in good company.
Anyone have a good explanation why the Company would say something like that? (Im more than happy to stand corrected)
If they (potentially) make half of what they made this year-(because of more expensive oil and more competition) then,aside from the divy,whats going to hold up the share price?

Not worth debating semantics other that to point out that if FY17 comes in at the top of the guidance range net profit before tax won't be much less than FY16 after taking into account in FY16 they took a number of one-off charges from historical fiasco's neither of which were caused by present management.

32 cps earnings and 20 cps fully imputed dividends is the company's own forecast at mid point of forecast range $500m. That's a PE of 6 at theoretical ex divvy price of $1.92 ($2.27 - .35) and a gross yield of 14.47% Perhaps FY17 is the peak of the competitive cycle..who can say for sure but those metrics are compelling in my book when compared to a 10 year average PE of 11 and a market average PE of ~ 20.

Every stock carries risk...its all relative to PE and earnings yield and this hound reckons there's good value here.

P.S. A slight edit to the previous comments I made about reinvesting the forthcoming dividend before you get it into new shares now to compound future returns, thus getting ~ 17% gross.

That strategy is only validated when the SP recovers after going ex divvy back to where it was cum divvy and given the size of the forthcoming divvy that might take a bit of time, how long ?..how long is a piece of string ?...maybe some people might like to google "dividend stripping" and have a look at some of the research on that investment strategy.

I think a point that's lost here by many is that the FY17 profit forecast is off a lower asset base and for those that chose to reinvest the extra 25 cps special divvy (which is really a form of return of capital) their future dividends will be higher so that's basically what I've decided to do, reinvest the 25cps, (already done), and enjoy the other 10cps :)

[winner69]

Even with a 'steep drop in earnings' f17 will still be the 2nd or 3rd best year in 76 years of operation so Rob told us the other day

[couta1]

Hey winner as an aside, have you booked your Guns N Roses tickets yet?old Slash has to be up there as one of the best guitarists aye, we won't need to fly Air to Auckland for this one.

[winner69]

Hey winner as an aside, have you booked your Guns N Roses tickets yet?old Slash has to be up there as one of the best guitarists aye, we won't need to fly Air to Auckland for this one.

Yep, $352 each

More than a weeks super that is - but that is what national super is intended for, little treats as a reward for all we have done for the country over the years

[winner69]

Hey winner as an aside, have you booked your Guns N Roses tickets yet?old Slash has to be up there as one of the best guitarists aye, we won't need to fly Air to Auckland for this one.

But thousands will be flying AIR to see it

If they fly Jetstar - they miss the concert

[couta1]

Yep, $352 each

More than a weeks super that is - but that is what national super is intended for, little treats as a reward for all we have done for the country over the years I must be a cheap skate as we got 2 tickets for the price of one of yours, your right about Jetstar although pilot may also be concertgoer so would have incentive to get there on time.

[winner69]

I must be a cheap skate as we got 2 tickets for the price of one of yours, your right about Jetstar although pilot may also be concertgoer so would have incentive to get there on time.

I looked at GOLD thinking they had to be good - but heck of a long way back

Good old marketing trick - to get closer you need Diamonds and Platinum

Even for pensioners the 'mosh pit' is acceptable

[Tony Two Gloves]

Solid buyers lining up above $2.25 - 775,000 in fact, just need those pesky sellers to go away!

Added to my holding and now have 100K of these babies, they will owe me $1.86 ex divvy #overweight #allinonair :)

[Raz]

Solid buyers lining up above $2.25 - 775,000 in fact, just need those pesky sellers to go away!

Added to my holding and now have 100K of these babies, they will owe me $1.86 ex divvy #overweight #allinonair :)
I would not go all in on air although I purchased another 100k last Friday, 205k in total and that is my max weighting now for this share...although when I look at the level in property compared makes you want to reconsider....the biz bank account could look bare...hmmmm

[couta1]

Solid buyers lining up above $2.25 - 775,000 in fact, just need those pesky sellers to go away!

Added to my holding and now have 100K of these babies, they will owe me $1.86 ex divvy #overweight #allinonair :) Looking at the daily volumes, the Instos have plenty of fire power and are keeping the price down, pesky is a nice polite word for them, i could think of others.

[Tony Two Gloves]

Looking at the daily volumes, the Instos have plenty of fire power and are keeping the price down, pesky is a nice polite word for them, i could think of others.
Sure looks that way Couta, the 650K of sellers number 19 compared to the 660K of buyers who number 72 - Retail v Insto's unfortunately they normally win! Not really all in Raz but is currently around 40% of portfolio so definitely overweight!

[couta1]

Sure looks that way Couta, the 650K of sellers number 19 compared to the 660K of buyers who number 72 - Retail v Insto's unfortunately they normally win! Not really all in Raz but is currently around 40% of portfolio so definitely overweight! Good on you TTG, 40% is a nice round figure although you'll probably get wrist slapped by the odd naysayer.

[winner69]

Hope no mass grounding of AIRplanes


http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/83740918/Air-NZ-Dreamliners-use-same-engines-as-Japanese-jets-grounded-due-to-cracks

[mshierlaw]

I think a point that's lost here by many is that the FY17 profit forecast is off a lower asset base and for those that chose to reinvest the extra 25 cps special divvy (which is really a form of return of capital) their future dividends will be higher so that's basically what I've decided to do, reinvest the 25cps, (already done), and enjoy the other 10cps :)

I have heard of compond interest but this is compounded - compound interest. Interesting strategy, if you have the confidence then why not. Thought you were going ALL IN on this.

[Bobdn]

I'm mostly blowing my dividend. I'm just grateful there's no DRP otherwise I'd feel compelled to reinvest.

I'm definitely going to do more travel and maybe I'll even get me one of them fancy lg OLED TVs (maybe not this year) One thing is for certain: when it's in my bank account I'm fixing myself a few daiquiris - white rum, lime juice, simple syrup, ice and give it all a good shake. No need for a blender. I've always loved them.

[skid]

I am going to hold up the share price. It will be too tempting not to with that big yield. And if the sp goes to low, then more buyers will just keep buying. Lot of sellers now before ex day will be back at the right price. And a lot of buyers now before ex day will not want to sell too much after ex day because it will only push the value of their shares down. If the price of oil goes up, then it might push out a bit of the competition. If sp goes back to 1.90, then I would buy more, but if it did, I'm sure it wouldn't be there for long. In fact, would probably start buying in $2.05c. There's going to be a bit of money floating around on pay day:).

Fair enough--I realize everyone has their own viewpoint---Its just a bit beyond me how one can put a positive spin on ''steep drop in underlying earnings'' (possibly earning half what they did this time around)--If their warning comes to pass,you may have quite a job ahead of you:)

[fish]

Good on you TTG, 40% is a nice round figure although you'll probably get wrist slapped by the odd naysayer.

I am not a naysayer but when i was younger and less experienced I liked round figures and taking risks expecting big gains.It was a painful lesson on how this approach can fail
Life has changed my approach.
Diversification and balancing is a safer and more productive approach.

[winner69]

Market aware of this steep drop in earnings for a while .....and has reacted accordingly by marking the price down by more than 30% from where it was

Market pretty smart eh

No worries here

[Raz]

Fair enough--I realize everyone has their own viewpoint---Its just a bit beyond me how one can put a positive spin on ''steep drop in underlying earnings'' (possibly earning half what they did this time around)--If their warning comes to pass,you may have quite a job ahead of you:)

Have you read the other comments since? Record profit that was opportunistic, I see it for what is, is there inherent risk, yes like with everything...they have a decent plan with proven management to provide a dividend medium term which appears sustainable, buy in at the right price provides superior rate of return vs alternatives on NZX.

Where is ever growing profit come into this rational ? Yes it would be nice however life an't always like that. If the world retrenches AIR appears in a robust position given the captive market they hold and age/demographic who is flying. In a financial world struggling for yield and failing to find it, I can take a calculated risk where the capital level invested to me is not financially threatening, however the yield is compelling.

Actually half my shares were provided by the non efficient market in AIR in the past year via capital gain. There usually seems to be major delays in absorbing information and correctly processing it wrt AIR.

The market at around 2.80 didn't react with the announcement of the VAH loan and then potential sale..earning were going to drop and known in Jan...classic examples.

Look through the media sound bite and what do you see..if many had done that on Brexit they would have made serious money in a week like I did.

[RTFQ]

Hope no mass grounding of AIRplanes


http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/83740918/Air-NZ-Dreamliners-use-same-engines-as-Japanese-jets-grounded-due-to-cracks

Unless this is a new problem with these engines I think AIR sorted this out some time ago. I think they have modified all engines now.

[winner69]

Unless this is a new problem with these engines I think AIR sorted this out some time ago. I think they have modified all engines now.

Thank goodness for that - no disruptions like those other airlines

[Jantar]

---Its just a bit beyond me how one can put a positive spin on ''steep drop in underlying earnings'' .....
As has already been commented on, this drop in earnings has already been well factored into the SP. Even if the earnings drop down to $400M (well below any projection to date) there will still be sufficient profit and cashflow to maintain the underlying annual dividend of 20cps fully imputed. That is a 12.7% gross return on the current SP, and if the price should drop as low as some are suggesting it could even go as high as 20% gross return. Personally, I do not see the SP going below $2.00 even after it goes ex div, as there are very few other investments that will give such a great ROI.

[BlackCross]

"...Stephen Bennie, a partner with fund manager Castle Point, said analysts had reduced their 2017 earnings forecasts for the airline by an average of 29 per cent following the renewed management guidance.
"They really caught analysts out with how much they were being impacted by increased competition and fuel prices rebounding," Bennie said...."
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11702222

I'm not convinced that fuel prices will rebound too strongly but holding a couple of oil majors acts as some sort of insurance (BP and Shell also good divi payers circa 6 to 7%).

[777]

I love this doom and gloom. Bring it on. Money waiting to be invested. Drive it down more. Come on skid make a day of it.

[Beagle]

Have you read the other comments since? Record profit that was opportunistic, I see it for what is, is there inherent risk, yes like with everything...they have a decent plan with proven management to provide a dividend medium term which appears sustainable, buy in at the right price provides superior rate of return vs alternatives on NZX.

Where is ever growing profit come into this rational ? Yes it would be nice however life an't always like that. If the world retrenches AIR appears in a robust position given the captive market they hold and age/demographic who is flying. In a financial world struggling for yield and failing to find it, I can take a calculated risk where the capital level invested to me is not financially threatening, however the yield is compelling.

Actually half my shares were provided by the non efficient market in AIR in the past year via capital gain. There usually seems to be major delays in absorbing information and correctly processing it wrt AIR.

The market at around 2.80 didn't react with the announcement of the VAH loan and then potential sale..earning were going to drop and known in Jan...classic examples.

Look through the media sound bite and what do you see..if many had done that on Brexit they would have made serious money in a week like I did.

Mate is that a bit of dividend hound this hound senses :p

[Beagle]

Market aware of this steep drop in earnings for a while .....and has reacted accordingly by marking the price down by more than 30% from where it was

Market pretty smart eh

No worries here

Exactly mate. Some naysayers are getting a little carried away with themselves. Solid business that's still forecasting its second or third best profit result for FY17 in its 76 year history. Yeah the sky is really falling LOL.

[macduffy]

Problems with ANA Dreamliner engines - but AIR's are ok.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/83740918/air-nz-dreamliners-use-same-engines-as-japanese-jets-grounded-due-to-cracks

[Beagle]

Couldn't help myself positioning for a bigger share of the forthcoming dividend banquet. Bought more today at $2.26. Won't talk confidential specific numbers but I currently have more than ever before :)

Had to do a quick and dirty review of maximum portfolio allocations to any one share...might have been a bit of creative accounting around new portfolio allocation maximum's to fit the situation :D

[couta1]

M
Couldn't help myself positioning for a bigger share of the forthcoming dividend banquet. Bought more today at $2.26. Won't talk confidential specific numbers but I currently have more than ever before :)

Had to do a quick and dirty review of maximum portfolio allocations to any one share...might have been a bit of creative accounting around new portfolio allocation maximum's to fit the situation :D I knew I'd set a good example for you, forget all that 10% PC nonsense.

[Beagle]

Yes, you're the MAN !

[BC_Doc]

Couta and Roger pretty much own Air NZ now :t_up:

[fish]

"...Stephen Bennie, a partner with fund manager Castle Point, said analysts had reduced their 2017 earnings forecasts for the airline by an average of 29 per cent following the renewed management guidance.
"They really caught analysts out with how much they were being impacted by increased competition and fuel prices rebounding," Bennie said...."
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11702222

I'm not convinced that fuel prices will rebound too strongly but holding a couple of oil majors acts as some sort of insurance (BP and Shell also good divi payers circa 6 to 7%).

I have bought a lot of AIR and with the strong nz dollar its time to buy more insurance against rising oil prices.Wondering about your choices and what others think.The main problem I have is the thought of lack of imputation credits and consequently profits in effect being taxed twice

[Raz]

Couta and Roger pretty much own Air NZ now :t_up:

Great that will take the volatility out of it...

[Raz]

I have bought a lot of AIR and with the strong nz dollar its time to buy more insurance against rising oil prices.Wondering about your choices and what others think.The main problem I have is the thought of lack of imputation credits and consequently profits in effect being taxed twice

Have worked for a couplen of oil company's and vested shares when employed, well worth it, shell was the best for dividend stream over time.

[Robomo]

Oil (WTI) down 3.69% overnight, continuing a downward trend and still lower than two years ago. With Iran likely to be exporting more now I don't see that oil prices are going to be increasing much in the short to medium term. If prices do go up then fracking will increase in the USA. Russia and Saudi Arabia need oil income for their economies so they can't afford to reduce production to try and force prices up. I think we're OK for the next two years as far as oil prices go.

[Scrunch]

Had to do a quick and dirty review of maximum portfolio allocations to any one share...might have been a bit of creative accounting around new portfolio allocation maximum's to fit the situation :D

Was the quick and dirty adjustment to start pricing AirNZ ex div in your portfolio and list the dividend as a separate holding?

[Snow Leopard]

I had a rather interesting discussion on Freedoms of the Air (see page 2 of this document (http://www.productivity.govt.nz/sites/default/files/B%20-%20Air%20Services%20agreeements%20and%20CAA%20Act. pdf)), primarily in the context of South-East Asia.

Apparently New Zealand is a shining example of liberalisation what with being a signatory to the MALIAT (http://www.maliat.govt.nz/) and all.


So new first pass valuations for Air New Zealand:

Date ~ Value
30-Jun-16 ~ $2.494;
30-Jun-17 ~ $2.407;
30-Jun-18 ~ $2.430;
30-Jun-19 ~ $2.500;
30-Jun-20 ~ $2.599.

All based on things going fairly smoothly for a while.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Master98]

I had a rather interesting discussion on Freedoms of the Air (see page 2 of this document (http://www.productivity.govt.nz/sites/default/files/B%20-%20Air%20Services%20agreeements%20and%20CAA%20Act. pdf)), primarily in the context of South-East Asia.

Apparently New Zealand is a shining example of liberalisation what with being a signatory to the MALIAT (http://www.maliat.govt.nz/) and all.


So new first pass valuations for Air New Zealand:

Date ~ Value
30-Jun-16 ~ $2.494;
30-Jun-17 ~ $2.407;
30-Jun-18 ~ $2.430;
30-Jun-19 ~ $2.500;
30-Jun-20 ~ $2.599.

All based on things going fairly smoothly for a while.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Quoted before PT delete his post again:cool:

[skid]

I am not a naysayer but when i was younger and less experienced I liked round figures and taking risks expecting big gains.It was a painful lesson on how this approach can fail
Life has changed my approach.
Diversification and balancing is a safer and more productive approach.

Exactly--double or nothing and big time averaging down is not without its dangers--having said that Im an old timer and think more of asset protection while the young bucks have time to make up for any big time losses that happen to occur.

risk is sexy....but

[couta1]

I had a rather interesting discussion on Freedoms of the Air (see page 2 of this document (http://www.productivity.govt.nz/sites/default/files/B%20-%20Air%20Services%20agreeements%20and%20CAA%20Act. pdf)), primarily in the context of South-East Asia.

Apparently New Zealand is a shining example of liberalisation what with being a signatory to the MALIAT (http://www.maliat.govt.nz/) and all.


So new first pass valuations for Air New Zealand:

Date ~ Value
30-Jun-16 ~ $2.494;
30-Jun-17 ~ $2.407;
30-Jun-18 ~ $2.430;
30-Jun-19 ~ $2.500;
30-Jun-20 ~ $2.599.

All based on things going fairly smoothly for a while.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
I can live with the Cats valuation projections whilst enjoying that 20c fully imputed divvy along the way plus a bit of capital gain. PS-Surprisingly close to my own valuation estimate previously posted of $2.40-$2.50.

[Pipi]

Question from a learner. How do i find out what date the special divvy is to be paid and the last date to purchase so you can get in, in time? Cheers

[couta1]

Question from a learner. How do i find out what date the special divvy is to be paid and the last date to purchase so you can get in, in time? Cheers You must purchase before Sept 8th, payment date is Sept 19th.

[thestg]

Question from a learner. How do i find out what date the special divvy is to be paid and the last date to purchase so you can get in, in time? Cheers

Divvy info can be found at nzx.com

[BlackPeter]

Question from a learner. How do i find out what date the special divvy is to be paid and the last date to purchase so you can get in, in time? Cheers

Better than feeding a man is to teach him to fish ....

All this information is readily available on the NZX website:

https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/securities/AIR/dividends

Obviously - if you want to know this information for some other stock, you need to enter the appropriate ticker ;).

[winner69]

Question from a learner. How do i find out what date the special divvy is to be paid and the last date to purchase so you can get in, in time? Cheers

All this free money is just like manna from heaven eh

Remember 'there's no free lunch' or 'if it's too good to be true ...'

Somethings got to give / crash methinks

Not trying to put you off pipi - go for it - but don't leave it too late as might cost you more next week.

[Beagle]

U.K. Early Bird sale on till end of Sept. Can fly AIR's Dreamliner to Singapore and then on to Europe with Singapore airlines in their A380 to Switzerland in shoulder season next year for ~ $1900.
I'll start working on Mrs Hound tonight..fantastic way to "reinvest" so too speak, some of the divvy.

[winner69]

U.K. Early Bird sale on till end of Sept. Can fly AIR's Dreamliner to Singapore and then on to Europe with Singapore airlines in their A380 to Switzerland in shoulder season next year for ~ $1900.
I'll start working on Mrs Hound tonight..fantastic way to "reinvest" so too speak, some of the divvy.

Good deal - doing the same ...but i hate planning that far ahead

Least that trip would show you that those A380's are far superior to the over hyped Dreamliners

just my humble opinion and I daren't say I reckon Flying Singapore a better experience than Air NZ

[Raz]

So true there winner... We really need Rodger to try the product, planning a family trip as well to Europe...demand for air looking good:)

[Jantar]

U.K. Early Bird sale on till end of Sept. Can fly AIR's Dreamliner to Singapore and then on to Europe with Singapore airlines in their A380 to Switzerland in shoulder season next year for ~ $1900.
I'll start working on Mrs Hound tonight..fantastic way to "reinvest" so too speak, some of the divvy.
Ditto, but Vienna for me, via LAX and Munich for a similar price.

[BlackPeter]

Ditto, but Vienna for me, via LAX and Munich for a similar price.

Did this route some months ago. Nothing wrong with the flights (though the LH flight from LAX to MUC features only mediocre service (but a modern plane). Prepare for long waiting times in LAX unless you hold a US passport. You will need to "immigrate" into the US of A (and if its just for half an hour or so), you will be fingerprinted and photographed (with all data stored forever in US systems) and, if the often unfriendly and arrogant US immigration staff have a bad day (I understand, they often have), than you might miss your connection flight.

Ah yes - remember to get your ETA in time.

If any possible I go through Asia to Europe. Only going through Heathrow (if you need a connection flight) is worse than going through LAX (or any other US port)!

Anyway - good luck and enjoy your flight!

[Beagle]

Good deal - doing the same ...but i hate planning that far ahead

Least that trip would show you that those A380's are far superior to the over hyped Dreamliners

just my humble opinion and I daren't say I reckon Flying Singapore a better experience than Air NZ

Singapore airlines economy seats on their A380 are a very generous 19 inch width...very nice, hope Mrs hound is reading this.

[Jantar]

Did this route some months ago. Nothing wrong with the flights (though the LH flight from LAX to MUC features only mediocre service (but a modern plane). Prepare for long waiting times in LAX unless you hold a US passport. You will need to "immigrate" into the US of A (and if its just for half an hour or so), you will be fingerprinted and photographed (with all data stored forever in US systems) and, if the often unfriendly and arrogant US immigration staff have a bad day (I understand, they often have), than you might miss your connection flight.

Ah yes - remember to get your ETA in time.

If any possible I go through Asia to Europe. Only going through Heathrow (if you need a connection flight) is worse than going through LAX (or any other US port)!

Anyway - good luck and enjoy your flight!
Did the same route last year so my ETA should still be current and allows me to go through LAX just a bit quicker

[Raz]

Did the same route last year so my ETA should still be current and allows me to go through LAX just a bit quicker

It get me the beat up on LAX, stuff of urban legend, ETSA is the key to the US even if in transit..as someone who goes through LAX every month for the past 14 years I have never had a problem with their officials...

JFK, Heathrow and Charles de Gaulle are the worst for service and luggage wait time in particular.

Easier travelling via the east to Europe and return via the west - USA - for travel and time zones.

[RupertBear]

You must purchase before Sept 8th, payment date is Sept 19th.

And when can you sell and still get the divvy please?

[couta1]

And when can you sell and still get the divvy please? On or after Sept 8th.

[777]

And when can you sell and still get the divvy please?

You really need to ask that?

[RupertBear]

You really need to ask that?
Yes I know it is a stupid question but I have stuffed up before so just want to double check. Apology for asking the obvious

[RupertBear]

Yes I know it is a stupid question but I have stuffed up before so just want to double check. Apology for asking the obvious

I guess my naive confusion is " Ex" Dividend day is 8th September, but they dont really go Ex until the 9th so you cant sell until the 9th. Sorry but I am a newbie

[Beagle]

On or after Sept 8th.


I guess my naive confusion is " Ex" Dividend day is 8th September, but they dont really go Ex until the 9th so you cant sell until the 9th. Sorry but I am a newbie

What Couta1 said is absolutely correct.

[King1212]

Ex date is 8th sep...recorded is 9th sep. so all good to sell on Monday 12th sep...with crude oil on record low and tourism booming...AIR will be shine in medium term

[winner69]

Like manna from heaven all this free dosh for a few days work

[couta1]

Ex date is 8th sep...recorded is 9th sep. so all good to sell on Monday 12th sep...with crude oil on record low and tourism booming...AIR will be shine in medium term Have you been drinking King? Should read Ex 8th Sept, record is 9th Sept so all good to sell on Thurs 8th Sept.:)

[dobby41]

I guess my naive confusion is " Ex" Dividend day is 8th September, but they dont really go Ex until the 9th so you cant sell until the 9th. Sorry but I am a newbie

They are ex - excluding - dividend for purchases on the 8th.

[dobby41]

Singapore airlines economy seats on their A380 are a very generous 19 inch width...very nice, hope Mrs hound is reading this.

You could always print it out and pop it onto her pillow tonight :-)

[RGR367]

Like manna from heaven all this free dosh for a few days work

Yup. With NPX surely on the money now, I just got to put some extra dough into this as that dividend is just too tempting. TY for the reminder :)

[winner69]

The Chairman of the Board no doubt looking forward to his $62k dividend (jeez he's getting less than couta)

As a decent bloke I'm sure he was not in breach of his Directors duty to provide guidance and advice to the company without regard to self-interest? The discussion around special dividends or share buybacks seemed to be pretty robust.

Anybody calculated what outrageously indecent dividend Christopher will be getting this time around. Just as well he is excluded from the $2,500 staff bonus.

[King1212]

Have you been drinking King? Should read Ex 8th Sept, record is 9th Sept so all good to sell on Thurs 8th Sept.:)


U can sell anytime....people will pick your shares up...with current low interest rate..AIR is worth the risk...

[Beagle]

The Chairman of the Board no doubt looking forward to his $62k dividend (jeez he's getting less than couta)

As a decent bloke I'm sure he was not in breach of his Directors duty to provide guidance and advice to the company without regard to self-interest? The discussion around special dividends or share buybacks seemed to be pretty robust.

Anybody calculated what outrageously indecent dividend Christopher will be getting this time around. Just as well he is excluded from the $2,500 staff bonus.

Staff were all paid their bonus this week. Anyone flying this weekend will notice Air New Zealand staff on the plane are happier than usual :)

[RupertBear]

What Couta1 said is absolutely correct.

Thank you King1212, Roger and Couta for your reply. I had the misfortune of having a brain tumour a few years back, all gone now thankfully but I do struggle to understand apparently simple concepts at times so thank you for your patience :)

[couta1]

Thank you King1212, Roger and Couta for your reply. I had the misfortune of having a brain tumour a few years back, all gone now thankfully but I do struggle to understand apparently simple concepts at times so thank you for your patience :) No worries, genuine help should be the hallmark of this forum, especially for the likes of yourself with what you'rve suffered.

[777]

Rupert my sincere apologies. Best of luck with your investing.

[Beagle]

Thank you King1212, Roger and Couta for your reply. I had the misfortune of having a brain tumour a few years back, all gone now thankfully but I do struggle to understand apparently simple concepts at times so thank you for your patience :)

All the best mate. You might like to consider holding this stock. The ongoing dividend yield is forecast at about 14% so a nice supplement to your other income perhaps ?

[couta1]

This little fish had a wee nibble at $2.17 :D Roger you must learn to pay attention in class.

[RupertBear]

Rupert my sincere apologies. Best of luck with your investing.

All good 777 no need to apologies but thank you :)

[RupertBear]

All the best mate. You might like to consider holding this stock. The ongoing dividend yield is forecast at about 14% so a nice supplement to your other income perhaps ?

Thank you Roger your opinion is much respected:)

[Beagle]

Roger you must learn to pay attention in class.

LOL its been a crazy busy last few weeks mate. Nice to see our new friend buying at such an attractive price, very happy for him :)

[Joshuatree]

Thank you Roger your opinion is much respected:)

Some folks unintentionally hex a stock on every thread they pause on....gulp..... thats when i have another sip of Red Bull, because it gives me?

[Raz]

LOL its been a crazy busy last few weeks mate. Nice to see our new friend buying at such an attractive price, very happy for him :)

Yes Mr Bear bought at a sharp price, certainly not a bear of little brain per the story...:-) Happy investing and a weekend to enjoy...not sure what has happened since the first day of spring... like someone turn on the summer switch instead here in Christchurch.

[Snow Leopard]

Given that people are not only

discussing the AIR dividend on the PGW thread

but also

talking about the AIR FY2017 forecast earnings (so wide you can fly a complete squadron of Emirates A380s through it) on the Skellerup thread.

I thought I would use this thread to post pictures:

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-AIR/122838.jpg

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Nice of AIR to give forward guidance so incredibly early in the year, (unlike QAN who wouldn't / couldn't) and as for your favourite pick in the sector, Virgin, its a lottery if they'll even break even in FY17 let alone make anything but I reckon you should go "all in" on that one. :ohmy:

[Beagle]

Yes Mr Bear bought at a sharp price, certainly not a bear of little brain per the story...:-) Happy investing and a weekend to enjoy...not sure what has happened since the first day of spring... like someone turn on the summer switch instead here in Christchurch.
I think the bear has a bit of cunning beagle hound in him mate and loves his divvy feeds almost as much as you, me, Couta1 and others :)

[Xerof]

For good order,

Rupert Bear's canine chum was/is Algy Pug, amongst a healthy range of other chums

and the bear of little brain is Winnie the Pooh, who does not have a canine chum, preferring donkeys, kangaroos, piglets, and, rather surprisingly, a TIGER, but not of the paper variety......

I would provide pictures, but we have had today's picture quota provided already

[couta1]

Some folks unintentionally hex a stock on every thread they pause on....gulp..... thats when i have another sip of Red Bull, because it gives me? One must refrain from answering such a question as one may very well find oneself serving a stint in the cooler unable to participate in all the excitement, suspense and mystery once Air goes Ex divvy.

[Baa_Baa]

So there's the conundrum.

No, it's not about who's currently controlling the sentiment on this thread, moreso what happens ex-div.

For holders, some loading up the truck, rejoicing in the super-divi, it makes sense to hold until ex-div but who knows what they'll do immediately thereafter. Sentiment says they'll hold ad-infinitum, but history suggests otherwise, those canny folk move quicker than you can say 'exit stage left'.

For those looking to enter/re-enter, ex-div presents the opportunity as the divi discounts the SP, well usually it does. Some with cred have even suggested 'SP minus full div' is forthcoming, that's attractive, assuming it doesn't over-correct which would be even better entry.

Intriguing times. Good to see the fortunate rejoicing in the present, they deserve it for stumping up the ponies necessary to leverage the largess now pronounced for shareholders. Heck, it's not even too late to join that party and the SP is pretty flat recently, so quite a nice upside if one can stomach the potential ex-div sell-off, or get out before it.

Question is about the immediate thereafter? Who knows what will happens or what the apparently devoted will do. Let alone what you will do.

[Jantar]

...

Question is about the immediate thereafter? Who knows what will happens or what the apparently devoted will do. Let alone what you will do.That unknown is why I topped up some cum div and I will buy an equal value ex div.

[BC_Doc]

Have had great flights with air nz in the last week. Auckland-Sinagpore-Auckland-Christchurch.....Just an interesting note......Had a good chat with a relative whilst I was in Singapore who works as a senior engineer for Singapore airlines.

Asked what his view on investment in dreamliners.......he said the were economical because they were so dam light. The caveat to that being they were composite therefore, and small piece of damage meant an expensive replacement. Long term maintenance cost could escalate as a result. Which is why Singapore airlines passed ALL their dreamliners on to their budget carrier Scoot and opted for the new A350s instead.

Anyone got any thoughts on this from an engineering perspective?

[skid]

Have you been drinking King? Should read Ex 8th Sept, record is 9th Sept so all good to sell on Thurs 8th Sept.:)

dont worry ..you will know when it is past the divy time---just look at the SP

Only then will we know if the divi is ''free money''

Actually a more relevant question may be ''how do I make sure I am at the beginning of the que to sell after the divi cutoff (if that is the plan)

[see weed]

dont worry ..you will know when it is past the divy time---just look at the SP

Only then will we know if the divi is ''free money''

Actually a more relevant question may be ''how do I make sure I am at the beginning of the que to sell after the divi cutoff (if that is the plan)
Would it be the people in control of selling the shares are the first in line (brokers etc.)? Or put in a stop loss of $2.27c with a 1000 other people. IMO I think most sh don't want sp to drop too much and there will be plenty of buyers looking to get a good yld. bargain price of $2 to $2.10. And then back up to $2.20 by end of day;). Noticed PGW held up good on ex div yesterday on a 7% yld.

[Snow Leopard]

Have had great flights with air nz in the last week. Auckland-Sinagpore-Auckland-Christchurch.....Just an interesting note......Had a good chat with a relative whilst I was in Singapore who works as a senior engineer for Singapore airlines.

Asked what his view on investment in dreamliners.......he said the were economical because they were so dam light. The caveat to that being they were composite therefore, and small piece of damage meant an expensive replacement. Long term maintenance cost could escalate as a result. Which is why Singapore airlines passed ALL their dreamliners on to their budget carrier Scoot and opted for the new A350s instead.

Anyone got any thoughts on this from an engineering perspective?

Firstly, A350s, like B787s, make extensive use of composite materials.

Secondly, it is all about the total cost of ownership, so while it may be true that some repairs could be more expensive, hopefully the design engineers have got it right and the pros outweigh the cons.

Thirdly, each aircraft type has it's own peculiarities and maintenance requirements, an airline hopes that no show stoppers suddenly appear.

Fourthly, I took the bus to Singapore a week ago and will take the bus home again.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Hectorplains]

Would it be the people in control of selling the shares are the first in line (brokers etc.)? Or put in a stop loss of $2.27c with a 1000 other people. IMO I think most sh don't want sp to drop too much and there will be plenty of buyers looking to get a good yld. bargain price of $2 to $2.10. And then back up to $2.20 by end of day;). Noticed PGW held up good on ex div yesterday on a 7% yld.

PGW is popular 'evidence' for all sorts of theories as to how AIR's share price will behave.

All this talk of averaging down, heavily overweighting a portfolio with one stock and, now, dividend stripping... it sounds like gambling.

[Beagle]

As the cat said, A350's mostly composite too. Maintenance on composite aircraft could be higher in the long run but that needs to be considered in the context of how many billions of litres of fuel each aircraft type will burn in its lifespan. AIR seem pretty keen on the Dreamliner's. From a perspective of their slightly smaller size than a 777-300 or an A350 but with not dissimilar range they're probably a bit easier for AIR to operate profitably. "Goldilocks" size and efficiency for an airline AIR's size, perhaps ?

Yeap PGW trading most of the week at 52 and then most of Friday ex divvy at 52 certainly adds weight to the validity of dividend stripping as a supplementary investment strategy.
Some cunning hound probably stripped a good sized dividend there :D

[couta1]

PGW is popular 'evidence' for all sorts of theories as to how AIR's share price will behave.

All this talk of averaging down, heavily overweighting a portfolio with one stock and, now, dividend stripping... it sounds like gambling. Welcome to NZs favorite casino, only unlike sky city you get a lot more say on the outcome.:cool:

[winner69]

Welcome to NZs favorite casino, only unlike sky city you get a lot more say on the outcome.:cool:

You don't get guaranteed wins at Sky City like you do here

[RGR367]

PGW is popular 'evidence' for all sorts of theories as to how AIR's share price will behave.

All this talk of averaging down, heavily overweighting a portfolio with one stock and, now, dividend stripping... it sounds like gambling.

Why? Don't you need to have a gambling streak of some sort to play the Market? IMO, innately we all do :cool:

[skid]

PGW is popular 'evidence' for all sorts of theories as to how AIR's share price will behave.

All this talk of averaging down, heavily overweighting a portfolio with one stock and, now, dividend stripping... it sounds like gambling.

it is gambleing--and anyone who thinks you can buy monday and get a div ,but would buy for the same price on Thurs with no div IMO is seriously misguided and probably one of those who is overweight in AIR--Its wishful thinking

[skid]

You don't get guaranteed wins at Sky City like you do here

you sure like to tempt fate there Winner:)

[Gizzajob I can do that]

Looks like its time for another Rogers poll, set it up son.

[hamish]

Beautiful day here in WLG. Circa 20 deg, no wind. Is is raining in Auckland I wonder ?! Just boarded another air NZ flight for the weekly commute. Looking out window I see 7 air NZ planes, engines on, propellers turning, happy staff/stuff. koru lounge half full on midday Saturday, people still flying

[Bobdn]

You don't get guaranteed wins at Sky City like you do here

If you have patience. Chances of failing in the market over a 20 year period with a diversified portfolio of 50 plus companies are virtually nil.Chances are you will do solidly.

Good article in the paper today about a minimum wage janitor who died at 92 with $8m USD in the bank. He was a buy and hold investor with 95 companies including Lehman Brothers. But if Lehman Brothers is just one of 95 companies who cares. I have TTK which is 2 per cent of my portfolio. I hate losing money but 2 per cent is never a figure that will keep me up at night. 5 per cent and above, Im getting twitchy.

[Beagle]

Looks like its time for another Rogers poll, set it up son.

Not possible. Everyone seems to have their own theory on SP performance ex divvy, I've got mine and am comfortable its based on a sound strategy that's well supported by available empirical evidence and previous studies undertaken and well supported by my own experience in the matter.

[Gizzajob I can do that]

Not possible. Everyone seems to have their own theory on SP performance ex divvy, I've got mine and am comfortable its based on a sound strategy that's well supported by available empirical evidence and previous studies undertaken and well supported by my own experience in the matter.

Roger that Roger, me old Cocker spaniel, lol

[boysy]

It appears as though many people that bought prior to the annual result announcement plan to sell ex div it seems many here forget the fact the SP could fall more than the 35c total divi. Still recon holders here continue to underestimate the impact of competition on routes where Air have hostorically enjoyed as their most profitable routes (how analysts can try and quantify the impact of competition which is heating up confounds me hence why I see further downside to earnings from further entrants competing on AIR routes). Ramping on this forum is almost reaching the heights of my recent AIR flight from San Fran at 38,000 feet.

[winner69]

It appears as though many people that bought prior to the annual result announcement plan to sell ex div it seems many here forget the fact the SP could fall more than the 35c total divi. Still recon holders here continue to underestimate the impact of competition on routes where Air have hostorically enjoyed as their most profitable routes (how analysts can try and quantify the impact of competition which is heating up confounds me hence why I see further downside to earnings from further entrants competing on AIR routes). Ramping on this forum is almost reaching the heights of my recent AIR flight from San Fran at 38,000 feet.

Fair enough comments but analysts (just like you and me) have to make some assumptions about things like growth to get a value.

Just as they try to assess he impact of competitin on AIR we try to assess the growth that the likes of Trilogy will achieve.

Will Craigs be right about future AIR rvnues? Will Craigs (rather bullsh?) revenue forecasts for Trilogy eventuate? Will mine and your expectations of Trilogy be spot on?

All based on assumptions - assumptions based on what we know and what we what we think will happen - and only some time in the future will we know how good we and these analysts were

[couta1]

it is gambleing--and anyone who thinks you can buy monday and get a div ,but would buy for the same price on Thurs with no div IMO is seriously misguided and probably one of those who is overweight in AIR--Its wishful thinking I have a few plans in place depending on how the Aircoaster behaves Ex divvy, my personal opinion is it will drop around half the divvy amount before returning to its current level within 4 weeks. IMO the competition has been well factored into the current price and I'm quite happy to take my holding to around 70% of my portfolio total if it drops more than I believe is logical. So in summary my strategy is, if it drops a bit after going Ex, I buy more, if it drops a lot going Ex, I buy a lot more in order to bring my average down further. Sitting on an XOS holding whilst collecting an ongoing 20c divvy is more than fine by me,so skid you see whatever it does Ex divvy won't phase me. PS-Imagine if it doesn't drop at all or a small amount, it's happened before so not completely wishful thinking although unlikely.

[workingdad]

I think the drop could be dependant on the price it gets to before it goes ex divvy.

Bearing in mind trading range has been pretty much 2.15 to 2.25 with a 15 to 25c total divvy factored in over the last wee while and given the special was considerably more than most had considered and now a 35c total I would have expected the SP to go up more than it has but with instos selling down this has not happened complicating the predictions of ex divvy price.

Once the sell down is finished (if it does bearing in mind some probably have a plan to sell on the 7th and try to maximise price) SP should start to behave more normally. This is when the market price is more based on forward projections than the current basis of the tempting juicy divvy.

Its a guessing game but I am of the opinion there is still room for it to go up next week and regardless fair value would result in that $2 resistance being a temptation too good to pass up going forward but hey, only time will tell. Logic could be that extra 20c divvy should have pushed price to the 2.45 mark, then a drop relative to the divvy size down to 2.10 would be a nice easy calculation.....

Only plan I have is to park the AIR shares in the draw and take the divvys over the next few years and see how well management negotiate the competition - which I have confidence in and a basis for holding and of course the tailwinds to offset the competition aspect.

[voltage]

Well, all I know is AIR has a such a good product. Every time I travel the plane is full and they are so organised from start to finish unlike Jetstar. They are rated in the top small group worldwide.

[skid]

Lets face it --It was getting a bit thick there,with talk of guaranteed profits and low hanging fruit--This is not a no brainer--It could end well--and it could come completely unstuck (remember the talk when it was more than $3--talk of 227 would have gotten you tared and feathered)
AIR has had a sweet deal but no one really knows how hard competition will bite(including AIR) They are certainly taking it seriously though(more than some posters) so if one wants to take a punt,fair game,but lets not delude ourselves into thinking it cant go wrong. The instos selling, is a very common excuse that is bandied around on many sites.(but insitutions dont sell to lose money)
Those that have ALOT invested ,best of luck...but to those that are still wondering,lets not forget that those that are the most vocal for the most part have a vested interest in seeing the SP increase..(they have broken a few rules in terms of spreading risk,for better or worse).of course they are ''optimistic'' Others have to take that into consideration when trying to make a decision--It may come up spades in the end but or it could get ugly..nothing is guaranteed,....Its as simple as that...hmm,maybe not so simple.

[Beagle]

Its getting pretty thick on the naysayer side of things now Skid. I get it, you think there's genuine risks. Do you get it that based on the mid point of management's forecast in the middle of one of the most competitive periods of the companies history we're now looking at a forward PE of 5.8, (compared to a ten year average of about 11), and a gross dividend yield of ~14.5% ?

I think management have their heads screwed on pretty well and can navigate this bird through the turbulence.

[Snow Leopard]

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-AIR/DSC_0001.jpg

A kind heart is a fountain of gladness...
Washington Irving

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Raz]

Yup there is risk..so which investment/s on the NZX currently perceive is less risky and a more compelling case for you Skid?

[skid]

Its getting pretty thick on the naysayer side of things now Skid. I get it, you think there's genuine risks. Do you get it that based on the mid point of management's forecast in the middle of one of the most competitive periods of the companies history we're now looking at a forward PE of 5.8, (compared to a ten year average of about 11), and a gross dividend yield of ~14.5% ?

I think management have their heads screwed on pretty well and can navigate this bird through the turbulence.

Their forcasts come with a warning...and they could get it wrong couldnt they?-(after all ,they havent been operating in this coming competitive environment so the jury's out(they may have to cut prices to meet that competition and that could affect those projections)--All Im saying ,is take a step back and have a good think..you can call it naysaying..I dont mind.
Im allowing plenty of room for a positive outcome but I dont think some posts have been realistic as to the risks
Caution may not be sexy but it can be helpful in making decisions.
Being heavly overweight in one share is generally not recommended so one should at least review why that is the case before jumping in.
I cant imagine one can put the amount of work into a share as you have and not get a little bit attached-If doubting the company offends you,then that may be the case (in any case Im not directing any criticism at you personally)- Bystanders should weigh all options.
I personally would have thought the SP would have gotten more legs this past week if things were indeed as rosy as was hoped--but thats just one of many opinions

Disc--have nothing to gain by anything mentioned

[workingdad]

Instos selling for a reason? Like they are always right. They are certInly more risk adverse. Just look at CEN when it was smashed down 30odd percent. Tiwai the magic gloom word amount other things Look at them now, one of the best investments I made was going against the grain of the wise instos.

Dick smith anyone? Perhaps Katmandu?

I'm not saying it's without risk but dollar for dollar AIR is a Better bet than most and there's not many companies that don't face competition. Compare AIR to other airlines and they well under value SP wise yet enjoy a domestic market that has survived more than one competitor and let's face it, jetstar aren't exactly a well polished machine.

Internationally yeah more significant competition and enough to impact on profits but not enough to warrant a less than solid year by histories standards.

Tourism, migration, fuel prices all in favor of a decent year. Generally business and play of today's day and age is increasingly involving air travel.

I don't agree with not balancing a portfolio to hedge ones bets but I am comfortable being a holder of AIR.

[skid]

Instos selling for a reason? Like they are always right. They are certInly more risk adverse. Just look at CEN when it was smashed down 30odd percent. Tiwai the magic gloom word amount other things Look at them now, one of the best investments I made was going against the grain of the wise instos.

Dick smith anyone? Perhaps Katmandu?

I'm not saying it's without risk but dollar for dollar AIR is a Better bet than most and there's not many companies that don't face competition. Compare AIR to other airlines and they well under value SP wise yet enjoy a domestic market that has survived more than one competitor and let's face it, jetstar aren't exactly a well polished machine.

Internationally yeah more significant competition and enough to impact on profits but not enough to warrant a less than solid year by histories standards.

Tourism, migration, fuel prices all in favor of a decent year. Generally business and play of today's day and age is increasingly involving air travel.

I don't agree with not balancing a portfolio to hedge ones bets but I am comfortable being a holder of AIR.

Fair enough--Not necessarily saying Instos are the bees knees--But sometimes the poor ole instos get blamed for everything...Anyway ,should be an interesting week ,and best of luck to all!

[Baa_Baa]

The very brave will hold, ex div. Whether underwater or not. Will they disclose their losses or gains ?

The brave will hold ex-div, until they don't. But they're less likely to disclose. Unless they profit.

The bold will hold until ex-div, then sell. They'll tell you about it sometime afterwards. Maybe.

The less bold will not hold, they'll sell prior to ex-div, they won't say a thing. Mostly.

The patient will wait and pickup the buy of the decade, ex-div. So they say. If they tell.

The timid will do nothing. As they do or not do.

The disconcerted will laugh in the face of all the above.

The disconnected will pretend they're not any of the above.

[silverblizzard888]

The Savvy will sell some prior to ex-div, hold after and buy a good bargain on dip and never tell a word unless provoked.

[boysy]

$1349 return trip to London from Air China. Will be interesting to see how AIR responds as they will need to keep load factors up on these long haul routes , how heavily will they need to discount is the $64,000 question. The next few monthly operating statistics will be very interesting as these will start to show the impact of the increased level of competition especially long haul. My bet the monthly op stats both short and long haul will start to get nasty rather quickly from here while domestic should hold up. DYOR and look beyond the divi yield as with a earnings downgrade the divi will drop accordingly.

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=11703412

[Raz]

$1349 return trip to London from Air China. Will be interesting to see how AIR responds as they will need to keep load factors up on these long haul routes , how heavily will they need to discount is the $64,000 question. The next few monthly operating statistics will be very interesting as these will start to show the impact of the increased level of competition especially long haul. My bet the monthly op stats both short and long haul will start to get nasty rather quickly from here while domestic should hold up. DYOR and look beyond the divi yield as with a earnings downgrade the divi will drop accordingly.

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=11703412

My experience is the inexperienced or tight budget traveller will go direct this distance, for most they will pay a bit more to have a stop over for the sake of their sanity and health plus the extra experience to the overall trip it provides.

Losing market share of Chinese visitors to NZ I think is the greatest risk so it will be interesting...although overall market growth may mitigate it for now.

Say as much as you like DYOR however there is no way of knowing the effect of competition..have a look at forward bookings and what do you see...

[Raz]

The Savvy will sell some prior to ex-div, hold after and buy a good bargain on dip and never tell a word unless provoked.

That's the one:-)

[workingdad]

Fair enough--Not necessarily saying Instos are the bees knees--But sometimes the poor ole instos get blamed for everything...Anyway ,should be an interesting week ,and best of luck to all!

Yes Skid, you're right in saying not just the instos but the sheer volume is indicative of AIR being out of flavor and hence the dumping by some big players.

I hedged my bets. Tempted to come in more on a couple of occasions but never quite got there but enough to be slightly anxious about the ex divvy price and erratic nature of SP of late.

It's been a ride but currently I'm in green territory just and happy to keep them. Certainly won't be freaking out and selling them ex divvy and have sympathy for those that have freaked and sold on the lows

[Jantar]

$1349 return trip to London from Air China. ....
Air China could make it $349 return and I would still wouldn't fly with them. For some things price is not the main decision driver.

[winner69]

Yes Skid, you're right in saying not just the instos but the sheer volume is indicative of AIR being out of flavor and hence the dumping by some big players.

I hedged my bets. Tempted to come in more on a couple of occasions but never quite got there but enough to be slightly anxious about the ex divvy price and erratic nature of SP of late.

It's been a ride but currently I'm in green territory just and happy to keep them. Certainly won't be freaking out and selling them ex divvy and have sympathy for those that have freaked and sold on the lows

.......but wont you just be a little green with envy when the share price is $2.20 next Friday when every one else has got this manna from heaven

Should have shouted yourself a few thousand AIR shares for Father's Day

Just thinking

[Jantar]

.......but wont you just be a little green with envy when the share price is $2.20 next Friday when every one else has got this manna from heaven.......
I am hoping that AIR will be $1.92 next Friday so I can buy more at a cheap price.

[workingdad]

.......but wont you just be a little green with envy when the share price is $2.20 next Friday when every one else has got this manna from heaven

Should have shouted yourself a few thousand AIR shares for Father's Day

Just thinking

Wouldn't that be nice. I am pretty comfortable with what I hold and in reality the shares I have are for the kids when they are old enough to use the money for good use. May be tempted to top up but my thoughts are mixed and I am not overly itchy on the trigger finger.

I got bacon and eggs on toast in bed with a coffee, plenty of hugs and attention from the little ones and feeling pretty chuffed - hope other fathers get treated well today also.

[couta1]

Hey Boysy, Air versus Trilogy, one is an ESSENTIAL service the other has nice products but is NON ESSENTIAL, one enables a countless number of people to have efficient productive lives, the other is something which you can take or leave as it will make little or no difference to your life, one has been around 76yrs and will more than likely be around another 76 yrs, the other is a relative baby and in 76 yrs will be a forgotten memory.Both have lots of competition. Disc-Hold both so no axe to grind.

[winner69]

What are AIR going to do with the $150m of AIR010 bonds that mature this November

At 6.9% sort of expensive borrowings / capital

Whatever - less interest next year = more profit

[Beagle]

In 1947 a return air fare to London from Auckland would have cost approximately $1170 - the equivalent to 85 weeks' pay for the average worker. That is compared to today's cost of $1349 - just 1.5 weeks' pay for the average worker. Extract from link posted above. Isn't that simply stunning !!! This is why we are in a golden age for air travel and why IATA believe worldwide demand will continue to grow at 5-6% per annum almost indefinitely.

You get what you pay for with Chinese airlines and that isn't much. Very small and cramped seats, very small meals, herded en-masse between flights in transit. Maybe one of the flight attendant's might speak English if you are lucky.

$1900 return on Air's Dreamliner to Singapore and then switching to Singapore's A380 with wide 19 inch seats would be the best extra $551 you ever spent in your entire life in my opinion.

Some good debate above. Won't add much to it today...sometimes even the most enthusiastic hound has to have a rest with his partner :) https://www.dreamstime.com/stock-images-two-beagle-dogs-image4048874

[boysy]

couta1 its a apples and oranges scenario i think you would find for a number of woman TIL products would be more essential than AIR flights (my partner certainly thinks pricey candles are essential on a side note). Yes AIR has lasted 76 years but they have had a few minor pieces of turbulence such as a government bailout in recent history which might be worth mentioning. As most here are holders i hope I'm wrong but AIR has passed 'Peak Earnings' with new entrants seemingly happy to jump on AIR most profitable short/long haul routes which is being driven by lower oil it really will be a race to the bottom with travellers to be the ultimate beneficiaries. What we can all be in agreement is that it will be a very interesting trading week with the share to go ex div my bet short term holders will dump hard in the later part of the week and the share will be comfortably below the pre divi price less 35c.

[winner69]

Extract from link posted above. Isn't that simply stunning !!! This is why we are in a golden age for air travel and why IATA believe worldwide demand will continue to grow at 5-6% per annum almost indefinitely.

You get what you pay for with Chinese airlines and that isn't much. Very small and cramped seats, very small meals, herded en-masse between flights in transit. Maybe one of the flight attendant's might speak English if you are lucky.

$1900 return on Air's Dreamliner to Singapore and then switching to Singapore's A380 with wide 19 inch seats would be the best extra $551 you ever spent in your entire life in my opinion.

Some good debate above. Won't add much to it today...sometimes even the noisiest hound has to have a rest :)

First time I flw to London was 1971 - it cost me about $2,300 which was a lot of dosh those days

Remember if well - Wgtn/Auckland/Singapore/Mumbai(Bombay back then) / London with a 26 hour unscheduled stop over in Bombay because the plane wouldn't start and finally arrived in London to a baggage handlers strike.

Return was London/Rome/Dubai/Mumbai/Bangkok/Hong Kong without getting off the plane for 27 hours and then Hong Kong/Auckland/Wellington

I was told it was the joys of flying and that's what cheap fares gave you - spose things have got better

[skid]

Extract from link posted above. Isn't that simply stunning !!! This is why we are in a golden age for air travel and why IATA believe worldwide demand will continue to grow at 5-6% per annum almost indefinitely.

You get what you pay for with Chinese airlines and that isn't much. Very small and cramped seats, very small meals, herded en-masse between flights in transit. Maybe one of the flight attendant's might speak English if you are lucky.

$1900 return on Air's Dreamliner to Singapore and then switching to Singapore's A380 with wide 19 inch seats would be the best extra $551 you ever spent in your entire life in my opinion.

Some good debate above. Won't add much to it today...sometimes even the most enthusiastic hound has to have a rest with his partner :) https://www.dreamstime.com/stock-images-two-beagle-dogs-image4048874

Have you flown with Air China? My neighbor did and moved up to business class with the money they saved (and a special offer) He slept most of the way

[BC_Doc]

Sure one might say AIR is at the 'peak of its earnings', but would it then be also appropriate to say many other airlines are also at their peak given a significant proportion of earnings were derived from cheaper fuel as per their presentation. So is AIR actually well positioned RELATIVELY? Who knows.

Also, undervaluation is as pertinent as who believes it's undervalued. So is overvaluation. I believe it's undervalued but more importantly, who else that actually has significance believes that too ...

These comments are neither in favour or disfavor of AIR's potential future SP. They are just the thoughts of a bored person waiting to board an AIR plane.......

FYI: enjoying my first business class 'one up' successful upgrade

[simjp81]

Hi everyone.

Would be interested to hear peoples thoughts on where the SP might end up come ex div and/or how long it may take to recover to current levels if it drops.

[couta1]

Hi everyone.

Would be interested to hear peoples thoughts on where the SP might end up come ex div and/or how long it may take to recover to current levels if it drops. Please go over the last dozen pages of this thread to read people's opinions including my own.

[simjp81]

Please go over the last dozen pages of this thread to read people's opinions including my own.

Ok, thanks couta1. Sorry to be a pain and fill up the thread with stupid questions when its already been covered.

[simjp81]

Another question then, and apologies if it sounds dumb to all the old hands on here. If the SP drops by 35c to say $1.97ish and NTA is currently $1.764, would it be likely AIR will instigate a share buy back to bolster the SP, or are they ok with it being around that level? Or do I have my understanding way off the mark.

[winner69]

Another question then, and apologies if it sounds dumb to all the old hands on here. If the SP drops by 35c to say $1.97ish and NTA is currently $1.764, would it be likely AIR will instigate a share buy back to bolster the SP, or are they ok with it being around that level? Or do I have my understanding way off the mark.

Full year webcast analyst with analysts - share buy back not on agenda they said

[noodles]

Hi everyone.

Would be interested to hear peoples thoughts on where the SP might end up come ex div and/or how long it may take to recover to current levels if it drops.
It is rare to get such a large special dividend. In fact in the last 4 years, there have been 3 large ones (that I can recall):

SKT 2012 - 32c dividend closing price before dividend went ex 5.15. closing price next day 4.86 and then drifted lower on subsequent trading sessions. It recovered less than 2 months later
AIR 2014 - 15.5c dividend closing price before dividend went ex 2.21. closing price next day 2.06 and then fell further on subsequent trading sessions. It recovered less than 2 months later
CEN 2015 -50c dividend closing price before dividend went ex 6.08. closing price next day 5.57 and then fell further on subsequent trading sessions. THE PRICE HAS NOT RECOVERED

What is common here:
1. The price generally falls by the amount of the dividend
2. The price continues to fall in the following trading sessions

I have no idea what will happen with AIR this time round and do not care to speculate.

[workingdad]

It is rare to get such a large special dividend. In fact in the last 4 years, there have been 3 large ones (that I can recall):

SKT 2012 - 32c dividend closing price before dividend went ex 5.15. closing price next day 4.86 and then drifted lower on subsequent trading sessions. It recovered less than 2 months later
AIR 2014 - 15.5c dividend closing price before dividend went ex 2.21. closing price next day 2.06 and then fell further on subsequent trading sessions. It recovered less than 2 months later
CEN 2015 -50c dividend closing price before dividend went ex 6.08. closing price next day 5.57 and then fell further on subsequent trading sessions. THE PRICE HAS NOT RECOVERED

What is common here:
1. The price generally falls by the amount of the dividend
2. The price continues to fall in the following trading sessions

I have no idea what will happen with AIR this time round and do not care to speculate.

Can only comment on CEN as a holder but it's SP also jumped 50 odd cents when that divvy was announced. It stands to reason a SP dropping the value of the divvy when it has already had the associated increase surrounding such announcements. Of interest with AIR is it has yet to realize the SP gain. I'm not saying this won't mean a drop of 35c wont happen, just pointing out a variation in the comparison.

[boysy]

But a special dividend was anticipated with AIR the only suprise was the quantum. The guidance outlook overrode the larger than expected special dividend hence no jump on the annual results announcement.

[winner69]

But a special dividend was anticipated with AIR the only suprise was the quantum. The guidance outlook overrode the larger than expected special dividend hence no jump on the annual results announcement.

I would say that at average price of say 222 leading up to the announcement hat 1) 10 cent spec div was built it and 2) F17 earnings had been well signalled and weren't a surprise

Thus i wouldn't expect to see share price to close below 200 this week

All conjecture and speculation anyway as when share price is 150 odd in a years time we wold have got overall this current excitment

[Beagle]

It is rare to get such a large special dividend. In fact in the last 4 years, there have been 3 large ones (that I can recall):

SKT 2012 - 32c dividend closing price before dividend went ex 5.15. closing price next day 4.86 and then drifted lower on subsequent trading sessions. It recovered less than 2 months later
AIR 2014 - 15.5c dividend closing price before dividend went ex 2.21. closing price next day 2.06 and then fell further on subsequent trading sessions. It recovered less than 2 months later
CEN 2015 -50c dividend closing price before dividend went ex 6.08. closing price next day 5.57 and then fell further on subsequent trading sessions. THE PRICE HAS NOT RECOVERED

What is common here:
1. The price generally falls by the amount of the dividend
2. The price continues to fall in the following trading sessions

I have no idea what will happen with AIR this time round and do not care to speculate.

I have seen a big Australian study with heaps of empirical evidence that showed that in most cases shares recovered the dividend paid within a few weeks. Obviously with the size of the dividend this time one would expect it will take a bit longer. Thank you for posting previous experience with AIR which supports my contention that all other things being equal the SP is likely to recover the dividend in about twice as long as normal due to its substaintial size.

[couta1]

But a special dividend was anticipated with AIR the only suprise was the quantum. The guidance outlook overrode the larger than expected special dividend hence no jump on the annual results announcement. Wrong, the reason the price hasn't jumped much since the results is due to a much higher daily volume than normal due to heavy Insto selling, if that wasn't the case I reckon the price would currently be around the $2.45 mark because remember that retail holders can only control around 10% of all the selling.

[winner69]

I have seen a big Australian study with heaps of empirical evidence that showed that in most cases shares recovered the dividend paid within a few weeks. Obviously with the size of the dividend this time one would expect it will take a bit longer. Thank you for posting previous experience with AIR which supports my contention that all other things being equal the SP is likely to recover the dividend in about twice as long as normal due to its substaintial size.

There are quite a few tax implications in Australia as well which we seem to conveniently forget in NZ

[OldGuy]

For a company - like AIR - that earns a decent profit year after year: If the price didn't soon recover after going ex-divvy, it would eventually reach zero and the yield would be infinitely high. That's why the share price MUST eventually recover some of the value that it loses through the "ex-dividend" process.

You're welcome :)

[mikeybycrikey]

I don't really understand all the excitement around the price jump after the dividend. It's like the efficient market hypothesis has just gone out the window.

If some here are to be believed, then on Sept 9th, the share price will essentially jump by 20%. Instead of dropping from 225 to 190 as expected, it just going to stay where it is. Because: reasons.

Have you all gone mad?

Mr Market has decided that AIR is currently worth 225. After paying out 35cps, it'll be worth 35 cps less, give or take a few cps.

In the time I've been on this forum, I've seen a lot of excitement about dividends..... and usually the reality has completely failed to live up to the hype. I'm sure this time will be no different.

[couta1]

I don't really understand all the excitement around the price jump after the dividend. It's like the efficient market hypothesis has just gone out the window.

If some here are to be believed, then on Sept 9th, the share price will essentially jump by 20%. Instead of dropping from 225 to 190 as expected, it just going to stay where it is. Because: reasons.

Have you all gone mad?

Mr Market has decided that AIR is currently worth 225. After paying out 35cps, it'll be worth 35 cps less, give or take a few cps.

In the time I've been on this forum, I've seen a lot of excitement about dividends..... and usually the reality has completely failed to live up to the hype. I'm sure this time will be no different. Completely unknowable, as I've said previously there are many examples where the SP hasn't dropped at all going Ex divvy eg Spark, SCL and PGW come to mind over the last year or so in fact if you recall SKT actually went up substantially after going Ex on its last divvy, so no fixed rules on what a stock like Air will do. As previously stated my personal opinion is the SP will drop around half the divvy amount.

[Jantar]

......
If some here are to be believed, then on Sept 9th, the share price will essentially jump by 20%. Instead of dropping from 225 to 190 as expected, it just going to stay where it is. Because: reasons. ......
I don't think anyone is claiming that the price won't drop . That is a mis-representation of the sentiment. The price will almost certainly drop, even though there are cases on record where it hasn't.

The big questions are: How far will it drop? and; How long will it take to recover?

There is no question that the SP will recover or, as OldGuy pointed out, it won't be long before the dividend is greater than the SP. AIR have indicated a drop in earnings for FY17, down from a record FY16 to what will still be a very very good result. They have also re-affirmed that at least a 20cps annual dividend will continue. At $2.00 or less per share that equates to more than 13% gross dividend.

Putting all this together I am picking that the SP will drop to around $1.92 ex div and may stay around that level until the divi is actually paid, then start a slow recovery to back up around $2.25 in 6 months time.

[nzspeak]

"I have seen a big Australian study with heaps of empirical evidence that showed that in most cases shares recovered the dividend paid within a few weeks" please don't take this as advice. If this was the case, in general, for all markets, it would be the easiest money making scheme in history and every smart investor would do this. Please use common sense before believing some of the posts on this forum.

[couta1]

"I have seen a big Australian study with heaps of empirical evidence that showed that in most cases shares recovered the dividend paid within a few weeks" please don't take this as advice. If this was the case, in general, for all markets, it would be the easiest money making scheme in history and every smart investor would do this. Please use common sense before believing some of the posts on this forum. Lots of smart investors do do it,including many on this forum, just like traders make their money from market oscillations.

[OldGuy]

"I have seen a big Australian study with heaps of empirical evidence that showed that in most cases shares recovered the dividend paid within a few weeks" please don't take this as advice. If this was the case, in general, for all markets, it would be the easiest money making scheme in history and every smart investor would do this. Please use common sense before believing some of the posts on this forum.

what's your response to my comment on the previous page in relation to all this??

[OldGuy]

don't bother, roger. Let the rest of us utilise such strategies at the expense of those who refuse to believe their merits :)

[winner69]

For a company - like AIR - that earns a decent profit year after year: If the price didn't soon recover after going ex-divvy, it would eventually reach zero and the yield would be infinitely high. That's why the share price MUST eventually recover some of the value that it loses through the "ex-dividend" process.

You're welcome :)

So true oldguy - pretty logical eh

I think nzspeak understands this concept

[OldGuy]

the logic is overwhelmingly clear to me, so I can't see why others don't get it. *shrug*

[RTM]

For what its worth here is my perspective.

We are getting a large special dividend to reflect the record year that AIR enjoyed. Great.
The "normal" dividend is 10cents per half year. Hopefully this is baked into their financial planning. I am sure their major shareholder will encourage this.
I am sure the share price will drop after it goes ex....probably to around $2.00+-0.05
20c per share on $2.00 is a 10% dividend rate (a wee bit high ?), on $2.50 is 8% (about right ?)

So I would expect the share price to recover to somewhere between $2.00 and $2.5 over time.
If AIR can demonstrate that they can maintain and perhaps improve their normal dividend over time, maybe 2 years or so....then the dividend % will reduce as the share price appreciates.

Will be looking to buy some more at $1.9 or less. Other than that...I have enough.

[couta1]

the logic is overwhelmingly clear to me, so I can't see why others don't get it. *shrug* It's not the job of naysayers to get it even if they do get it, get my drift.:cool:

[winner69]

the logic is overwhelmingly clear to me, so I can't see why others don't get it. *shrug*

Yeah like say 20 cent divie a year with no recovery 'ex div' AIR share price will be zero in 11 years time eh

[couta1]

Those pesky Instos loading up the sell side early today, shame otherwise the price would climb nicely I reckon,wonder who they are, NZ or international?

[winner69]

Those pesky Instos loading up the sell side early today, shame otherwise the price would climb nicely I reckon,wonder who they are, NZ or international?

Didn't Balance say NZ instos lightening exposure to AIR and global instos buying foe the yield .....or something like that

Plenty of 'buyers' (shares bought) lately though eh

[Beagle]

Yup there is risk..so which investment/s on the NZX currently perceive is less risky and a more compelling case for you Skid?

I'd also like to know the answer to this Skid. I think most holders are fully cognisant of the risk of airline investment and AIR in particular but its all in the 5.8 forward PE and 14% gross dividend already, (I'd argue more than fully compensated) and with the market trading at a forward PE of ~20 what stocks offer a more compelling investment opportunity ?

[see weed]

Didn't Balance say NZ instos lightening exposure to AIR and global instos buying foe the yield .....or something like that

Plenty of 'buyers' (shares bought) lately though eh
Yes, there is plenty of buyers buying. Instos are selling a few at the top now, then will come back in after ex div. So they will have funds from the stock sold now, and then have have millions more to add to that Ex div, to then buy back at $2 to $2.10c, pushing price back up to...where ever:).

[Beagle]

For what its worth here is my perspective.

We are getting a large special dividend to reflect the record year that AIR enjoyed. Great.
The "normal" dividend is 10cents per half year. Hopefully this is baked into their financial planning. I am sure their major shareholder will encourage this.
I am sure the share price will drop after it goes ex....probably to around $2.00+-0.05
20c per share on $2.00 is a 10% dividend rate (a wee bit high ?), on $2.50 is 8% (about right ?)

So I would expect the share price to recover to somewhere between $2.00 and $2.5 over time.
If AIR can demonstrate that they can maintain and perhaps improve their normal dividend over time, maybe 2 years or so....then the dividend % will reduce as the share price appreciates.

Will be looking to buy some more at $1.9 or less. Other than that...I have enough.
Broadly agree with you but note that a 20 cent divvy on theoretical ex divvy SP of $2.00 gives a 10% net return. (Divvies are fully imputed so the gross return is 13.89%).
I think if it drops slightly lower than $2.00 ex divvy it won't stay under that level for long.

[see weed]

Don't forget NPX holders are looking for a home, maybe a few coming here for a quick buck.

[winner69]

At the present rate of climb I don't think we'm being giving a stuff what the share price is next week - except happy

[BlackPeter]

It's not the job of naysayers to get it even if they do get it, get my drift.:cool:

Look couta, we do get that you are seriously committed on AIR and that your nerves might be therefore a bit more sensitive than normal if some people don't share your view on how the SP might develop.

Might be even an opportunity to develop a plan B in case it goes next week not the way as you think it does, but this is a different matter and obviously just your own business ....

There is however no need for name calling. If you can't take that some people here still try to bring some sense into this thread instead of joining into your (and others) "ramp it up" choir, than I am wondering how you would take a tanking of the AIR share price come ex-dividend?

As usual - people have different views, and if I remember your investment past, than you (as most others, including myself) didn't get it right every time. So maybe you just accept that not everybody is euphoric about AIR's SP development ... instead of just classifying them as "naysayers". Maybe they have just a different view point or a more open mind? Sure - they might be wrong, but who knows - they might be right either?

As well ... blaming the insto's for selling (as you did previously on this thread) ... did you ever wonder why the instos might be selling?
Sure - instos don't get it always right and maybe this is an amazing opportunity to buy cheap AIR shares (i.e. no need to complain). However - instos don't get it always wrong either, so maybe - just maybe - they are giving retail investors a signal worthwhile considering. No matter which one it is ... I don't think there is any reason to complain.

All good - just another interesting investment scenario with open ending ... and I am sure, the people who are following common investment sense will be o.k. next week, no matter which way the pendulum swings.

[Yoda]

its a stupid question , but what's the point in investing in dividend stocks, if they go down by the price of the div, and don't recover within a reasonable time .......?. I get the money, but then lose it on the SP drop. Correct ?.
One might as well then invest in low or no divvy stocks which don't go down at Record date ...

divvys are investment income. To take the same amount out each year to live on, from non-divvy stocks (that don't go down as there is no ex-div date ) are classed as trading? ( taxable )

Lets see how long it takes to normalise after ex div .
Surely divies are rewards to shareholders , not penalties where stocks go down and recover slowly like any other non div stock .

I have no idea what I'm talking about , but just putting my questions out there .......

[see weed]

Have the instos finished selling yet? sp looking stronger:t_up:.

[OldGuy]

you are correct yoda. they must recover some of the SP drop otherwise the SP would eventually reach zero...

[couta1]

BP just for you the definition of a Naysayer-"One who frequently engages in excessive complaining/negative banter and/or a genuinely downbeat attitude. Naysayers are distinguished by their tendency to consistently emphasize the worst of a situation" As this is describing a well defined known mindset, how is it name calling? PS-If you read some of my previous posts on this thread, you will see I do have a plan B,. ie buy more on any price weakness.

[couta1]

Have the instos finished selling yet? sp looking stronger:t_up:. Looks like they are at least taking a lunch break.:)

[Baa_Baa]

Have the instos finished selling yet? sp looking stronger:t_up:.

Haven't seen anyone post a T20 update or Brokers report confirming that insto's have been selling or capping the asks. Possibly they have been, the recent volume suggest deep pockets, but confirmation would be better, otherwise it's just speculation.

[couta1]

Haven't seen anyone post a T20 update or Brokers report confirming that insto's have been selling or capping the asks. Possibly they have been, the recent volume suggest deep pockets, but confirmation would be better, otherwise it's just speculation. A notice would not be triggered if they only sell up to a certain percentage and as some have a huge number of shares, this would take a bit of doing, with retail holders only comprising 10% of the share registry, there no way it's them that's driven the daily Average volume up to the near 2 million it's at currently.

[BlackPeter]

BP just for you the definition of a Naysayer-"One who frequently engages in excessive complaining/negative banter and/or a genuinely downbeat attitude. Naysayers are distinguished by their tendency to consistently emphasize the worst of a situation" As this is describing a well defined known mindset, how is it name calling? PS-If you read some of my previous posts on this thread, you will see I do have a plan B,. ie buy more on any price weakness.

Couta just for you the definition of name calling: "The assigning of malicious designations in politics, debate, etc; character assassination"
I am sure with a little bit of reflection you can work it out ;).

Related to your plan B ... sounds like averaging down to me. Obviously - I never would dare to question your strategy ... but for everybody else it might be worthwhile to do a bit research on this strategy before trying it out.

[Baa_Baa]

A notice would not be triggered if they only sell up to a certain percentage and as some have a huge number of shares, this would take a bit of doing, with retail holders only comprising 10% of the share registry, there no way it's them that's driven the daily Average volume up to the near 2 million it's at currently.

I didn't say "a notice". Anyone tracking the Top 20 holders report which any shareholder can request from the company, or a Brokers report which some brokers will provide to their customers, would show the net buyer/sellers in recent times. It would stop the guessing.

[couta1]

Couta just for you the definition of name calling: "The assigning of malicious designations in politics, debate, etc; character assassination"
I am sure with a little bit of reflection you can work it out ;).

Related to your plan B ... sounds like averaging down to me. Obviously - I never would dare to question your strategy ... but for everybody else it might be worthwhile to do a bit research on this strategy before trying it out. I've already averaged down from $2.85 to $2.32 so quite happy about that and will off course average down further Ex divvy should the opportunity arise, strategy has worked well for me and saved my bacon on a few occasions but each to their own, have a nice day, time to work and not banter.:cool:

[Joshuatree]

I don't think I would like one of these easy come easy go money trees that some appear to have. If i did i think i may suffer from investor bias which is one of the uglier human traits; which can put one against anyone who has an opposing/ differing view ;but one can learn to deal with that little ego monkey on ones shoulder ; you know, the know it all ; follow me one. Luckily they always stand out; their blind spot is the transparency that I ,for one can easily see. And how many times will it take to learn, who knows; for it is just one more time. Attempts to influence often go hand in hand with this investor bias so please DYOR and do not be influenced by anyone no matter how repetitive and metronomic they will be.Its your money and their ego, easy choice.

[see weed]

I've already averaged down from $2.85 to $2.32 so quite happy about that and will off course average down further Ex divvy should the opportunity arise, strategy has worked well for me and saved my bacon on a few occasions but each to their own, have a nice day, time to work and not banter.:cool:
couta1, welcome to the green club:D. I am also in the green this hour by 20k:t_up:.

[Biscuit]

Luckily they always stand out; their blind spot is the transparency that I ,for one can easily see.

They stand out and are easily seen because of their transparent blind spot?

[Raz]

They stand out and are easily seen because of their transparent blind spot?


Now let me have a look, who is the happy crowd here....is the share price pulling up??

[sb9]

My pick is sp to be around 240 level by Wed a day before ex-div, just my 2c...

[Bobdn]

If the price drops 50% or more xd, I'm definitely topping up

[stoploss]

Something has got to give ....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11703798

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11703852

DISC: Holding

[brend]

Something has got to give ....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11703798

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11703852

DISC: Holding


The number of those fares available at price will be limited....just like how at boxing day Noel Leeming advertise 2 Tvs at at special price at each store.

[Raz]

Something has got to give ....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11703798

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11703852

DISC: Holding

As a former overseas executive the way I see it is this:

The disconnect with CEO salaries here is the idea that you have to try to match overseas (given what your size will allow) not to get the B team. The reality is if you are an A team executive you tend to stay and making it it in North America until you have creamed enough and then go do something else or come home and retire. Same deal for investment bankers.

The pay in the US is higher as a result of scale yet also underlies the key expectation you will not last long at the top table and often your career will be disrupted or potentially over after you exit. They think they have to match for "talent" here however the accountability on stakeholder performance here is easier and as a consequence executive roles generally last longer. People work here because they want to do the work and remuneration is secondary or they want to make the money they would not have been able to continue to make/or make overseas in a larger pond. The catch and why a lot of very good executives would never work here is the goal fish bowl of a small country/economy.

If you have the high profile in the US it tends to follow you make so much money that you can live separate from the public, not so easy here.


The Airline industry is booming... like a construction boom some companies are going to crash through the rate of change and their ability to attract and adapt. Air Asia X does not have a captive market except bargain hunters..not a good place to be.

Neither of these articles concerning me in the context of AIR.

[winner69]

My pick is sp to be around 240 level by Wed a day before ex-div, just my 2c...

Punters getting in to get this manna from heaven makes 240 on the cards

As i said earlier we won't be caring how much it falls ex-div

[Nasi Goreng]

Its getting into that zone where it is likely to hold above $2 ex divi. It wouldn't surprise me for buyers to come in at that level and we could be back in the $2.20's within a few weeks.

[Raz]

Its getting into that zone where it is likely to hold above $2 ex divi. It wouldn't surprise me for buyers to come in at that level and we could be back in the $2.20's within a few weeks.

Now 15 cents above the price I purchased the friday after the announcement...

[sb9]

Now 15 cents above the price I purchased the friday after the announcement...

Well, its exactly at $2 with divvy adjusted for today's closing price of $2.35. I'm thinking it might easily push another 5 to 10c over next couple of days, which means ex-div the price is likely to be greater than $2....

[winner69]

I see there are about 15,000 shareholders who own less than 1,000 shares


Nearly 27,000 shareholders in total

Lots of cheques in a few weeks time

[see weed]

2 days to go. There might be a mad buying frenzy in the next couple of days. Come on now, be in before it's too late, not many left at this low price. Don't miss out on this windfall, it is better than lotto, guaranteed div:D.

[winner69]

Something has got to give ....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11703798

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11703852


DISC: Holding

That $4.7m for Luxon is pretty obscene eh

There are 8 employees earning over $1m - total for these 8 is $15.5m

Not enough fingers and toes to count the number over $100,000 but it's a big number, running into thousands of them

Even the directors seem to be a good deal

Spose they all deserve every penny of it

[Beagle]

Now 15 cents above the price I purchased the friday after the announcement...

Congrats Raz, now 18 cents higher...pretty amazing really considering we and others were buying on the morning of the announcement only 6 trading days ago and the result and outlook wasn't a surprise to anyone that's followed the company closely. I guess doing your homework properly really does pay big dividends :)

[see weed]

couta1, welcome to the green club:D. I am also in the green this hour by 20k:t_up:.
Woops 25k now. couta, you must be 3 times happier than me:). What do ya think, late comers push price up another 5 or 10c before divy:cool:.

[Beagle]

That $4.7m for Luxon is pretty obscene eh

There are 8 employees earning over $1m - total for these 8 is $15.5m

Not enough fingers and toes to count the number over $100,000 but it's a big number, running into thousands of them

Even the directors seem to be a good deal

Spose they all deserve every penny of it

Performance bonus makes up most of his pay. Base pay about $1.5m IIRC which seems very reasonable indeed for a company turning over in excess of $5 billion and employing ~ 11,000 staff. Bit ironic that some of that bonus came off cheap oil but whatever system you put in pace is prone to have its quirks. Directors attracted widespread appreciation, (almost disbelief), at the last annual meeting, hadn't had a pay rise in 7 years despite profits growing strongly. Directors pool was enhanced slightly to allow headroom for another director, no pay rise last year either if I remember correctly. What other board wouldn't ask for a pay rise in 8 years when profits have grown so strongly and front line staff have had 2% average pay rises compounding annually for all that time ? That's a mark of the integrity of the board that really impressed me and many others at the meeting.

[winner69]

Performance bonus makes up most of his pay. Base pay about $1.5m IIRC which seems very reasonable indeed for a company turning over in excess of $5 billion and employing ~ 11,000 staff. Bit ironic that some of that bonus came off cheap oil but whatever system you put in pace is prone to have its quirks. Directors attracted widespread appreciation, (almost disbelief), at the last annual meeting, hadn't had a pay rise in 7 years despite profits growing strongly. Directors pool was enhanced slightly to allow headroom for another director, no pay rise last year either if I remember correctly. What other board wouldn't ask for a pay rise in 8 years when profits have grown so strongly and front line staff have had 2% average pay rises compounding annually for all that time ? That's a mark of the integrity of the board that really impressed me and many others at the meeting.

Still totally outrageous the remuneration at AIR - no wonder the majority in the world are getting grumpy with all this increasing inequality

A disgusted shareholder

[winner69]

Spose management waiting for the dividend before they start another round of selling?

[axe]

Spose management waiting for the dividend before they start another round of selling?

surely management going to be buying using their big dividends??? :)

[winner69]

Couta - At 235 share price you must be a happy chappie ....and that divie to come soon .....and all those imputation credits

You in elite group - only 149 shareholders over 100,000 shares so you must be near the top of the list of individual share holders - probably still classed as one of those 'mom and pop' investors anyway ha ha

Well done mate

[Beagle]

surely management going to be buying using their big dividends??? :)

Yeap that's the one, directors have been. Winner, front line staff got $2.500 each, a lot for a junior flight attendant on $40K so they're spreading the joy. Check out some of the salaries for other CEO's like Fonterra, Westpac $4-5m plus and surely nobody would try and say Fonterra are performing in a record manner ? If you don't pay top performers you don't retain them, simple as that really.

Anyway...moving along from social pay equity issues, its certainly very interesting times for shareholders. Not only are we right on the cusp of a record ever dividend and the fundamentals that we've discussed so thoroughly are so compelling, as is the ongoing dividend yield for that matter but now we have a further significant development today that hasn't been discussed before.

AIR appeared to break through the 100 day MA on the upside on 1 September so today is the third trading day (on huge volume) that confirms that new technical trend so the technical analysts amongst us may now also be starting to warm to the stock as well. Personally I love it when FA and TA line up and this at a time when one of my other favourite investment strategies, dividend stripping, is also playing itself out. Its all coming into alignment rather beautifully.

[Raz]

Yeap that's the one, directors have been. Winner, front line staff got $2.500 each, a lot for a junior flight attendant on $40K so they're spreading the joy. Check out some of the salaries for other CEO's like Fonterra, Westpac $4-5m plus and surely nobody would try and say Fonterra are performing in a record manner ? If you don't pay top performers you don't retain them, simple as that really.

Anyway...moving along from social pay equity issues, its certainly very interesting times for shareholders. Not only are we right on the cusp of a record ever dividend and the fundamentals that we've discussed so thoroughly are so compelling, as is the ongoing dividend yield for that matter but now we have a further significant development today that hasn't been discussed before.

AIR appeared to break through the 100 day MA on the upside on 1 September so today is the third trading day (on huge volume) that confirms that new technical trend so the technical analysts amongst us may now also be starting to warm to the stock as well. Personally I love it when FA and TA line up and this at a time when one of my other favourite investment strategies, dividend stripping, is also playing itself out. Its all coming into alignment rather beautifully.

I will drink to all that, cheers :-)

[Gizzajob I can do that]

Woops 25k now. couta, you must be 3 times happier than me:). What do ya think, late comers push price up another 5 or 10c before divy:cool:.

couta1 is banned, probably for taking excessively large dividends and not taking BPs point of view :t_down:

[Hectorplains]

I have seen a big Australian study with heaps of empirical evidence that showed that in most cases shares recovered the dividend paid within a few weeks. Obviously with the size of the dividend this time one would expect it will take a bit longer. Thank you for posting previous experience with AIR which supports my contention that all other things being equal the SP is likely to recover the dividend in about twice as long as normal due to its substaintial size.

I don't know what the study is that you are referring to, Roger? The study outlined here ( https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/what-is-dividend-stripping-and-does-it-work-03-18-2016) of nearly 6600+ dividend payouts on the S&P 500 from 1994 to 2016 shows that dividend stripping doesn't work as a strategy. If you think about it, if dividend stripping is such a robust profit maker - why isn't everyone doing it? It's not as if it's a difficult process to understand and enact. Dividend stripping of AIR might be profitable, or it might not. Place your chips, red or black?

[Beagle]

Had a quick look for a link for ya, no joy..will have a look later in the week when I am less tired if I remember. Average dividend yield on Aussie stocks much higher than in America and its even higher here. As mentioned previously the higher the yield the greater the chances of this being successful. I don't bet at the casino mate, green comes in too often for my liking :)

[Hectorplains]

Had a quick look for a link for ya, no joy..will have a look later in the week when I am less tired if I remember. Average dividend yield on Aussie stocks much higher than in America and its even higher here. As mentioned previously the higher the yield the greater the chances of this being successful.
I don't see that a higher yield would equate to greater success with dividend stripping, how do you get that? I re-read your posts and could only see you said that, AIRS more substantial dividend would equate to longer sp recovery time ("twice as long as normal".)

[Baa_Baa]

Australian study much closer to home. Average dividend yield on Aussie stocks much higher than in America and even higher here.

Roger, I think most will get the difference between Australasian vs US stocks, but naming the source of the Aus study which would be helpful to prove your point.

How about spelling out the strategy, not what dividend stripping is per se, but how you actually do it ...

For example, on the day of going ex-div, and the minute that divi payment is confirmed (cash in your bank), sell all your shares before everyone else has, then the SP declines by divi amount (maybe more which is even better), then buy back the original holding plus more with the dividend cash = way ahead of the game. And then if SP doesn't go lower and stays there, or better still recovers in the months following back to ex-div price = really nice capital gains. Or something like that?

[Beagle]

Roger, I think most will get the difference between Australasian vs US stocks, but naming the source of the Aus study which would be helpful to prove your point.

How about spelling out the strategy, not what dividend stripping is per se, but how you actually do it ...

For example, on the day of going ex-div, and the minute that divi payment is confirmed (cash in your bank), sell all your shares before everyone else has, then the SP declines by divi amount (maybe more which is even better), then buy back the original holding plus more with the dividend cash = way ahead of the game. And then if SP doesn't go lower and stays there, or better still recovers in the months following back to ex-div price = really nice capital gains. Or something like that?
http://www.body-hacker.com/asx-dividend-stripping/

[Baa_Baa]

http://www.body-hacker.com/asx-dividend-stripping/

Thanks, read it. You deleted your whole post and left a link to this, like it answers the simple question I put "how you actually do it". I get it, your tired, I'm tired, we're all tired ... tomorrow is another day. Cheers.

[RupertBear]

http://www.body-hacker.com/asx-dividend-stripping/

Thanks for posting Roger, I for one found it interesting :)

[mfd]

A quick quote from Burton Malkiel which seems relevant to all this dividend stripping talk


Any truly repetitive and exploitable pattern that can be discovered in the stock market and can be arbitraged away will self-destruct.

He was talking about the January effect, the idea that the market rose more in January than other months. It was true right up until people noticed it, at which point it stopped being true. No idea what will happen in this case, but I'd be very wary of the idea that there's an exploitable pattern that will continue to exist in a complex market place.

http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~steele/Courses/434/434Context/EfficientMarket/malkiel.pdf

[kiora]

A quick quote from Burton Malkiel which seems relevant to all this dividend stripping talk



He was talking about the January effect, the idea that the market rose more in January than other months. It was true right up until people noticed it, at which point it stopped being true. No idea what will happen in this case, but I'd be very wary of the idea that there's an exploitable pattern that will continue to exist in a complex market place.

http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~steele/Courses/434/434Context/EfficientMarket/malkiel.pdf

Agree with that.Just after you think you know what you are doing you find out you really don't :ohmy:

[Raz]

A quick quote from Burton Malkiel which seems relevant to all this dividend stripping talk



He was talking about the January effect, the idea that the market rose more in January than other months. It was true right up until people noticed it, at which point it stopped being true. No idea what will happen in this case, but I'd be very wary of the idea that there's an exploitable pattern that will continue to exist in a complex market place.

http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~steele/Courses/434/434Context/EfficientMarket/malkiel.pdf

Yeah well I realised all that after doing a masters in financial economics...still doesn't really explain how a nobody like me can make approx. 250K trading this share in 12 months, just trading on clear osscelations of the share, never sold or bought at the absolute highs or lows. No special knowledge, surely blind luck would not last that long and with an efficient market can't happen?

ps some good deal on grabaseat, go book some flights please:-)

[drcjp]

Interesting article on DS Roger. Thanks. Quaeritur: do we have a 45 day rule re DS on the NZX like the ASX?

[mfd]

Looking more closely, they seem to have been 'lucky' to start their analysis when they did, looking at the graph the entire outperformance occurs in the first two quarters. Also no accounting for what would be relatively heavy trading costs to jump in and out of so many stocks.

[winner69]

Interesting article on DS Roger. Thanks. Quaeritur: do we have a 45 day rule re DS on the NZX like the ASX?

No - Aussies brought in such rule to thwart the likes of Roger

Dividend stripping more prelevant over there apparently

[sb9]

Pre-market bids indicate for strong open, let's see how the day folds out...any predictions for today's closing price, my pick is around 240 level...

[mfd]

Yeah well I realised all that after doing a masters in financial economics...still doesn't really explain how a nobody like me can make approx. 250K trading this share in 12 months, just trading on clear osscelations of the share, never sold or bought at the absolute highs or lows. No special knowledge, surely blind luck would not last that long and with an efficient market can't happen?

ps some good deal on grabaseat, go book some flights please:-)

Good on you, I'm not an expert on stock trading but from my time trading sports markets I know it takes an incredibly long time to distinguish skill from luck with any confidence.

[winner69]

Pre-market bids indicate for strong open, let's see how the day folds out...any predictions for today's closing price, my pick is around 240 level...

Jeez - 240 today ......245 tomorrow .......220 ex divie ......it really was manna from heaven

[Master98]

Jeez - 240 today ......245 tomorrow .......220 ex divie ......it really was manna from heaven
how about 245 today, 250 tomorrow,215 ex div. maybe too greedy.

[see weed]

If it gains 5c every day between now and ex date which is in 7 buss. days. That would = 35c + today's closing price of $2.27= $2.620c. But it may not be 5c a day, so I will predict about $2.50c pre div and $2.15ish or higher ex div.:D.
From 29/8/16. You never know, anything can happen in a big or little market;).

[see weed]

Are we there yet:cool:. Inch by inch, cent by cent.:) Good luck to all holders esp. couta1 you happy chappy.

[sb9]

Are we there yet:cool:. Inch by inch, cent by cent.:) Good luck to all holders esp. couta1 you happy chappy.

Up to 240 now...getting there slowly...

[see weed]

Up to 240 now...getting there slowly...
Yeah, all aboard for 2.45:t_up:.

[Tony Two Gloves]

Hmmm $2.45 was what I was thinking as I believe $2.10 ex would be fair. To sell or to hold that is the question........hard when there is a tidy profit to be had right now and i'm overweight in this. I need a drink but have another 37 minutes to wait :)

[see weed]

Hmmm $2.45 was what I was thinking as I believe $2.10 ex would be fair. To sell or to hold that is the question........hard when there is a tidy profit to be had right now and i'm overweight in this. I need a drink but have another 37 minutes to wait :)
There's no hurry, you got until 5pm tomorrow. Never know, might be a few late comers before then.

[Bobdn]

Still in the red, 2.42 is my break even.

[Tony Two Gloves]

Very true, decided $2.465 is my number so have put sell order in and quite relaxed either way, would be more relaxed if I did have that drink but not celebrating just yet....

[see weed]

Very true, decided $2.465 is my number so have put sell order in and quite relaxed either way, would be more relaxed if I did have that drink but not celebrating just yet....
My av. price is 2.16c and in the green 32k today, but not selling yet and not drinking until next time. Tomorrow's another day.

[Jantar]

Still in the red, 2.42 is my break even.
Same as mine. Won't be long now. :)

[winner69]

Old news ....or not ....even attractive for Wellingtonions maybe?

Love those A380s

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/83948418/christchurch-to-get-the-doubledecker-emirates-a380-on-flights-to-dubai

[Raz]

Old news ....or not ....even attractive for Wellingtonions maybe?

Love those A380s

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/83948418/christchurch-to-get-the-doubledecker-emirates-a380-on-flights-to-dubai

Now thats made my day..even more than the share price:-)

[winner69]

So how much of the rise from 222 (time of 1/2 year) to 240 do you attribute to the dividends?

Or is it just the 1/2 year and outlook was a lot more positive than expected and AIR is being rerated accordingly?

[BIRMANBOY]

So is a trade before and a trade after (minus the IRD's portion) going to be more productive than a 35 cent fully imputed dividend. With the number of shares selling prior to dividend it looks like a lot of trading activity..which could drive price up very quickly after ex-div. Then how long and strong will be the interest...trading funds trapped? Very interesting situation.

[Marilyn Munroe]

...even attractive for Wellingtonions maybe?

Love those A380s


Do not despair winner. The deployment of A380's frees up 777's. I suggest Emirates will be looking closely at Lee Kuan Yew Airlines loadings out of the Windy City and if it likes what it sees try to muscle in with its 777's

The only constraint will be the availabilty of air crew. Apparantly treating highly skilled internationally in demand staff as if they were indentured labourers from the third world has its problems.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Raz]

If you have a large enough investment, consider a weighted approach

[Raz]

If you have a large enough investment, consider a weighted approach

[stoploss]

If you have a large enough investment, consider a weighted approach

Is that a double weighting then ?

[BIRMANBOY]

Perhaps they are waiting for a weighting re-rating?:p
Is that a double weighting then ?

[Jay]

Old news ....or not ....even attractive for Wellingtonions maybe?

Love those A380s

http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/83948418/christchurch-to-get-the-doubledecker-emirates-a380-on-flights-to-dubai

I note one comment is why does AIR not fly from ChCh to LAX - not enough demand?? - How many do they fly up from Dunedin/ChCh to Auckland??

[fiasco]

Quick silly question. My sell order went through, forgot to adjust the quantity as I wanted to hold some to be eligible for the dividend. Question, is it too late to purchase?

[sb9]

Quick silly question. My sell order went through, forgot to adjust the quantity as I wanted to hold some to be eligible for the dividend. Question, is it too late to purchase?

You've until 5pm tomorrow to be eligible for divvy...any purchases until that time will've divvy paid on them.

[fiasco]

Excellent! Thanks for the prompt reply sb9, greatly appreciated.

[Gizzajob I can do that]

Excellent! Thanks for the prompt reply sb9, greatly appreciated.

Fiasco saved fiasco

[Golfer01]

I note one comment is why does AIR not fly from ChCh to LAX - not enough demand?? - How many do they fly up from Dunedin/ChCh to Auckland??

They use to, probably 6-7 years ago. Only for 1 season (summer) from memory. There's several factors i believe. PAX support, in and out, security demands applied to the airport due Homeland security (USA) and having enough aircraft to service all the routes. They are currently double daily ex AKL. Additionally if they are only flying ex AKL then any PAX from Palmerston North south need to use their domestic services to get to AKL. Ching, Ching.....

[Jantar]

I note one comment is why does AIR not fly from ChCh to LAX - not enough demand?? - How many do they fly up from Dunedin/ChCh to Auckland??
Apart from travel to/from Brisbane, all of my international travel is ex Ch'ch. This usually means domestic to Auckland, but quite often I can get suitable flights from/to Ch'ch on Qantas, Emirates or Singapore. For LAX, I haven't yet found a quality airline from Ch'ch, so AIR do have the monopoly on that route ex AKL. I suspect I am not the only one who spends a lot of time on the ground at AKL

[Raz]

It's all about the Auckland hub, good for my AIA airport shares and nothing else. To be fair pax dropped post earth quakes however AIR left room for the competition on the recovery, think Emirates is looking at eu tourists direct into South Island as a point of difference offering.

[Jay]

Thanks guys/guyesses, thought they use to fly out of CHCH at one point
Holds AIA as well, so not complaining, was just wondering, thought there maybe enough demand, they would know how many do as you do Jantar to see if is worthwhile, could drag in a few from south of CHCh and top of the south island cheaper and easier to get to (less time) than Auckland.

[see weed]

How about a little surge up before close:). Come on now, 35c div divity div divity div div dere,

[winner69]

How about a little surge up before close:). Come on now, 35c div divity div divity div div dere,

Profit taking mate - taking the dividend today and not waiting a few weeks